Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Who Wins SB 54 With Scooch and Chris Raybon

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Who Wins SB 54 With Scooch and Chris Raybon · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. We're back. I'm so excited. A
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: it is the middle of the week. I don't even
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: know what day it is. I am Chad Millman of
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. This is the Favorites. I'm looking on
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: my window in the wilds of Connecticut and it just
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: started snowing. The latest snowstorm that has shut down the schools,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: sent my kids into a tizzy. Uh canceled all the plans.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: UM is finally arriving and on the phone Trooper and
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: through Bookmaker to the world from New Orleans and Boyd Gaming.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, my man, Chad, what's going on? Listen?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I know you're soldiering through this because you've got a
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: toothache and you're going to the dentist, and so I
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. No problem. You know what you're gonna miss
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: though later on in the show. Chris Raban, who was
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: one of our genius Action Network writers, regularly appears on
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the Action Networks NFL podcast. UM one of the best
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: DFS fantasy prognosticators, modelers, and rankers in the world. He
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: wrote an amazing story about UM using very specific and
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: sort of sophisticated metrics to determine which are the eleven
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: NFL teams you should bet on to win the Super
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Bowl next year. And he sort of broke get down
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: and figured out, like, the teams that have won the
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl every year have uh come from this pool
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: that have sort of been able to match the metrics
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: that he figured out. And so we're gonna talk about
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: which eleven teams are the best value and so you're
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: gonna miss that, And I'm sorry for you. Now that's
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: how how long has he been doing that? How many years?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: He first one? First one? You know how it came about.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: We sat with Chris Raybon at the end of the
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: year and me and Scott Miller, who really does all
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: the work at Action Network, and we're like, listen, let's
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: think about some fun ideas. We want you to have
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: something you can do every week now that we're out
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: of fantasy season. And we sort of modeled and brainstormed,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and uh, this was not any of the ideas that
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: we came up with. He came up with his all
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: on his own. Nice I like it, but I'd like
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: to think that sort of just the meeting inspired him
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: to think differently. So sometimes it's not about what you
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: come out with in that actual meeting. It's about reframing
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: how you think about what you're doing. Sure, sure, that's
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: how I lead. I'd buy it totally. Listen, just one
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: quick update on the Year of Kindness, and we've got
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: a very special ad that I think is keeping with
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: the Year of Kindness. Later in the show, I'm going
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: to spring that on the listeners, and I think they're
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be excited to hear it. Um. I continue to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: not be able to get anybody in my house to
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: contribute to the Year of Kindness. Oh come on, really,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: so I am going to relay it to you, Scooch.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I want you to feel better. That's very kind of you.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Hey, there's a lot to talk about. Uh,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: do you have anything on your mind specifically, because I
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: have a lot on my mind. No, your mind. Uh.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: First of all, we took a week off after the
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, Um, just because it was crazy and busy
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. But um, how did
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: they get your prop up in Vegas? Contest winner do
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: The prop was referees penalty except the penalty yards for
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: both teams versus the field goal. It was a wacky
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: game total field your field goal yards kicked? So what one?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: So the the field goal yards there were three field goals. Uh,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: there was a fifty three yarder and a couple of
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: forty forty something yarders. So so the field goal one,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: and we talked about how we thought that that would
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: be the favorite. They did bet it. You know, we
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: initially hung it. Uh pick them and the first couple
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: of bets right out of the gate, we're on the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: field goal yardists. So we ended up closing it. A
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: field goal yard is minus four and a half yards
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: and minus a dollar forty. Uh, they were still laying
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: it a little bit, so we didn't win on that prop.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: There were very few uh penalties called in that game.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember a pass interference call. I'm sure
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: there was one or two, but very few flags thrown
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: in that game. Well, there was really only one penalty
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: that mattered. It was a holding call on a big
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Todd Gurley run that I really think changed the game.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And we're not going to spend too much time talking
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: about the game just because it's now two weeks old.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: But um, how much money was bet on to get
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: your prop up in Vegas contest? Problem? Uh? There was
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: probably between I won't say a little more than six thousand.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: It's pretty good, which is pretty good, which is pretty good. Yeah,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: that's that's real good. I mean, this guy out of
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: nowhere created a prop and like it brought in six
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: grand and handle at the Orleans Yeah, yeah, I mean
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: that's fantastic. That's actually, uh, that's pretty good. I mean
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: we didn't win on it, which is bad. But you know,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: maybe he was able to place a place a few
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: dollars on it. I don't know, We'll have to we'll
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: have to find out someday. It feels more like a
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: your problem than in my problem. Definitely is maybe you
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: had made a better line. You know, you should have
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: know when you're getting into your bookmaker. Totally true. I'm
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna throw that back on Jake, you know,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I yelled at him a little bit. Was there a
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: prop that what was the lowest handle for any prop? Oh,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: the lowest handle for any proph? God, we know there
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: were so many of them out there. There was There
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: was a couple of them where we wrote probably less
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: than less than five hundred dollars. Yeah, there was a
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: couple of them, but you can't remember them. I I
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: can't remember which one was there there. We were going
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: through so many of those, I mean, uh, it was
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: probably you know, we we had a couple of I
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: want to say, the number of the number of saves
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: by Flurry for the Vegas Golden Knights versus the number
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: versus a total Rams points scored. Uh. And and it
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: was more for kind conversation to have the kind of
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: cross prop up there and just to have the kind
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: of a local flavor with the Vegas Golden Knights. But
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: that really didn't that really didn't draw a whole lot
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: of action. Uh. Well, and thank god it didn't, because
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: people probably would have bet on Flurry and like he
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: definitely probably had more saves that night than the Ramsey points. Yeah,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: there was a couple of them that kind of surprises.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: We put up one with Steph Curtry's total number of
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: points scored, uh that that morning versus the total number
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: of points scored by the Patriots, And the final tally
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: was like fourteen to thirteen because Curry only scoured fourteen
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: points and we're like, well, this one seems like an
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: automatic winner, and then the Patriots only put up thirteen. Yeah,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: that was insane. Everything went out the window with that game.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: What what was amazing to me about that week and
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: what is continued is that the NBA dominates the conversation.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: But yeah, go ahead, no, go ahead, you're gonna say something. No, Well,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: especially with all the you know, the trade rumors and
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that that that was really kind of the conversation. So
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: how do you manage that as a bookmaker? Like, it's
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: nothing that you're seeing directly on the floor, but Anthony
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Davis to the Lakers starts to potentially change what the
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: odds might be for the Lakers or you know, any
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: other sort of trade rumors that could be happening. Um,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: are you adjusting on the fly? Are you making are
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: you making adjustments based on based on rumors? You know
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: that kind of thing. What happens, Yeah, we try to
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: adjust them down. Fortunately, a lot of the um, the
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: favorites to win the NBA Championship are pretty kind of solid.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: We talked about this before. You You've got a handful
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: of teams that are really contenders, and then there's a
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: big disparity between the rest of the teams and there's
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: really no team that's in that like thirty one forty
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: one category that's suddenly going to catapult them up into
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: one of the top two or three favorites just by
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: by one player. Uh, you know, not even not even
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the Lakers. So um, there's not too much, but we do,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: but we do adjust. I mean when when you have
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: a player like Anthony Davis and uh, you have to
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: you have to make some adjustments. Uh. You know, we've
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: got burned a lot of times in the past by
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: just missing out on the rumor. And then you know,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: we wait, we have to find out after we start
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: getting these you know, these big bets coming in on
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: a fairly long shot, and then we find out the
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: rumor that players going to a specific team. So we
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: just have to monitor it every day and just kind
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: of keep up on all the the news wires and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: just like you said, it just on the fly. Aren't
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you tapped in? I mean remember when you knew about
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: the apody else? Yeah, most of the time, I mean
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: were most of the time, we're we get the information,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: uh before anybody else. But there's a there's a few times,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I mean going back, Uh god, I remember, like we
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: really got burned about what ten years ago, twelve years
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: ago when h Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and everyone
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: what the big trades that the Celtics got, all these
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: big players, and they started out the year I wanted
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: to say hundreds to one hundred and fifty two one,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: and then they ended up being the favorites within a
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: matter of a month or two, and then they won
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: the championship. That was a bad year for us. But seriously,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: how often do you know before anybody else knows? You don't?
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: We rely on a lot of the betters, and it
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: seems like the better some of the betters that are
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: dialed in sometimes get information before any even the news outlets.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't say it's often, but between between the
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: betters that are dialed in and and then the news
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: outlets themselves, I mean, we get it before the rest
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: of the public. I'm not gonna say we get it
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: before before a lot of the reporters get it, but
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: there are sometimes that we do, and it's mainly because
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: of this large network of kind of professional betters. They
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: are out there that have some kind of context that
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: maybe they do know something a rumor before before it's
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: even released. So how does it work? Give me a breakdown,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: like what exactly happens and tell me what happens. Well,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, in cases where we know who the better is,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: let's say, well, get it better that comes in and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: wants to bet us on this particular team that you
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: know one, it's not usually the type of wager that
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: a professional better will make. So in the cases where
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: we know the professional better, it's kind of a gentleman's
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: agreement a lot of times where uh, you know, we
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: give them the bed and then it's like, you know, hey,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: what's going on? And some times they know somebody who
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: knows somebody that that's what the rumor was. And then
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: sometimes it pans out where you know, you find out
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: a couple of days later, somebody will break the story
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: that someone's going to be traded, and sometimes it turns
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: out to be nothing. But that's generally how how it
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: happens with with the betters that we know. With the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: better that we don't know, it's still you know, uh,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: kind of an odd wager that they don't generally make.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So we'll try to do some research on our own.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: We'll try to find out what's going on, and um,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: like I said, sometimes we find out before it breaks,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: but and sometimes we don't. That is so interesting. I
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: don't think we've ever discussed that. So you will have
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: a guy come up to you, and this is where
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: like betters are so plugged in. They get information, they
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: come to make the bet. They will make a bet
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: that seems odd to you. You will allow them to
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: make the bat, and then you will say, all right,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: we'll let you make the bat. Give us scoop pretty
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: pretty much. Yeah, I mean it happens sometimes with injuries
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: on a on a game. Um, not not just trade
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: rumors or or you know, personnel moves, but it'll also
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: be uh, you know, on injuries. Um, sometimes somebody gets
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: a wind of a possible injury before it before it's
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: kind of released, and or they find out that uh,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: you know, player has got the flu before it's released,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: something something like that. Uh, and then when they make
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: the wager, it's like, okay, what's going on here? And
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: again these are with kind of the professional betters that
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: that we've come to know over the years. It's a
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: different story with somebody that you don't know, but um,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: we've kind of grown to know most of them over
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the last twenty years. All Right, this, this is this
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: is interesting. This conversation is taking a different turn than
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I expected. Um, we're not know where we're going to go, right,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: We just kind of But here's the thing, this is like,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: this is what I think a lot of the league's
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: and the players worry about the most. It isn't It
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: isn't games being fixed. It is injury information or players
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: being players at a lower level being compromised to get
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: inside information for betters. Right. And I had this conversation
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: with some people at the n C Double A because
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: they're in a whole different ball game where they don't
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: need to officially release player injury information the way you know,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the the NFL is very structured with it the NBA
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: and they have to uh you know, they have some protocols,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: where as the n C Double A kind of struggles
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: with the hippo laws that protects the players privacies. Verse is,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: do should we get this information out there at all?
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Or should we let it kind of be like black
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: market information. It's kind of which one, which one's worse?
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Which one, you know, having having the n C A
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Double A actually released some information or on on key
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: personnel or just have it be a rumor out there. Uh.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: You know there's been in cases in the past with
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: big name players in championship games where it's kind of
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a well known rumor, but it's still unofficial because there
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: are no official means of getting that information out there.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: So it's something that's really going to have to be
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: brought to the forefront. As you know, sports betting gets
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: pushed in a lot of these new new jurisdictions. But
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: at the professional level, players I know have told me
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: that they worry most about their third string cornerback taking
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: you know, an extra hundred thousand dollars over the course
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: of a season to give legit injury the information about
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the first string middle linebacker, um two gamblers. I mean,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: it's a big risk. But you know, I think that
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: kind of thing existed, you know, before the proliferation of
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: sports betting. I mean that that kind of information was
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: that that was kind of a problem all the way
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: back many years. So and I wouldn't say it's a
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: it's a problem. I want to retract that it it's
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: just a concern. Well, I was gonna say, like, you
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: don't need professional betting for someone who to want to
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: build a relationship with the player and pay them to
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: get inside information. But how much how much of that
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: do you think goes on right now? Like, how much
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: do you think professional betters are tapped into teams to
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: get this information? Well, where do you think that information
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: comes from? I think the information comes from people that
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: are surrounded surrounding the team, like, uh, at a distance,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: they're not directly respond they're not directly involved with the team,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: but it's somebody kind of on the outskirts that they
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: have access two some of the team members, uh, you know,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: or or at the college level, they're you know, friends
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: with friends. But I don't know that it goes on
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: as much as you know, I know where the conversation
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: kind of turned here, but I don't want to apply
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: that this kind of thing actually goes on at at
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: a uh, you know, a big level. Oh, I don't
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: think it goes on at a big level. I'm always curious,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: like where are these betters, How these betters get this information?
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Like why are they so tapped in? What do they know?
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Who do they know? Sure? Sure? I mean, I mean
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: it's I mean picture, Let's say you're you're you're in
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: college and you're in classes with the starting quarterback and
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: three or four of the key guys on a team
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: and you you have access to the weight room, and
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: so you're there, you're lifting weights with the guys. You're
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: about ten onety feet away, and you hear, you know,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the quarterback's lifting weights or something complain about you know,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: these pains in his right shoulder or something. I mean,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: it could be so innoculous, but it may have. You know,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: this guy comes away thinking he's got inside her information. Uh.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: And like I said, it's sometimes most of the time
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: it just turns out to be a rumor. But um,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: it's kind of the same thing with like a stock market.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: You overhear a couple of people that are on the
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: on the board of some company and they you overhear
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: him talking about something that you think is inside information,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: and then you know you may or may not think
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: it's worth buying a stock. Wow, that's fascinating. How much
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: do you think that changes with professional with legalization happening
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: in more states, do more people jump into the pool?
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Does it be become harder to get information, Like it's
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: its harder for the guys in Vegas to get information.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: What do you think happens. I think it's I think
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: it's brought to the forefront and think it's more out
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: in the open, so it's probably much harder. You talk
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to a lot of the gamblers from like twenty years
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: ago that used to get inside information from like newspapers
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: around the world and just different means of I think
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: it's harder for those guys to have an edge over
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the bookmakers because now that information is transmitted to the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: bookmakers much more easily. So I think it's much more
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: difficult for the professional betters now. Um, I don't think.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think the I think it's probably going to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: be less and less of a concern as it's kind
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: of addressed. And I think education is a big part
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: of it. When I talk to kind of league officials
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: and and uh, like I said, the n C double
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: at people. People at the right levels are aware of
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: these kind of things. So I think education is the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: biggest part. Educate the athletes, uh, you know, not to
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: try and divulge information that people you don't know or
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: you just wary of it. So it's gonna be less
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: and less of a concern as more states of legalize gambling.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Guess what, the field is getting leveled. That's what that
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: sounds like to me. It's getting easier and easier for
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: you know, not me, because I'm already practically a professional,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: but like you know, I've won my last three NBA bets. Um,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: But for people who aren't like me, yeah, I mean, um.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I was at the the I think you were at
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the ICE Conference as well in New York, and I
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: think Vic Solerno, longtime bookmaker out here in Vegas, was
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: on one of the panels and he kind of addressed
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: that with the NBA, saying everybody in the world knew
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: that Lebron's hand was was heard or broken, and yet
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: there was no official release that that you know, from
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the league or from the team that his hand was
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: was injured. You know, as people are making these these
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: big bets on on the game and you're seeing the
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: line swing to three points. So so it's definitely something
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: people are talking about. Um. Listen, I want to tell
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: you there's a guy at the Action Network named Justin
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Fan and he runs you know, one of the one
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: of the companies that actually networks is called Fantasy Labs,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: and Fantasy Labs has a Twitter feed that is like
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the premier news feed if you want to keep up
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: with what's happening in the NBA and it's run by
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Justin fan Like any injury, any lineup move that's coming
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: out is on Fantasy Labs seconds after it's reported. It's
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: almost like Justin is one of those betters who has
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the inside info and he puts it out on Twitter
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: for our fans the same way that like your betters
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: come to the counter and make those bets. Right, he
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: is that looked in. He is also an incredible NBA
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: better and very selective. And we call it the fan Wagon.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: It's his name is spelled p j N. We call
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: it the fan Wagon because you can follow Justin in
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app, and so you can make any
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: bet that he's making. And so every time Justin makes
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: a bet, you will see everybody in our office, uh
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: start to like you can follow everybody else, and like
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: all a sudden, you see Jab Millman just bet Utah
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: minus six and a half. You know, Rob Perezh just
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: just bet Utah minus six and a half. Like it
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: goes down the line like everybody is betting the same
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: bet that Justin makes. And so this past weekend I
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: bet Utah minus six and a half. I bet Orlando
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: plus eleven against Milwaukee, and it was like almost simultaneous
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: with when it was listed that Janice was not going
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: to be playing that night. Wow, that makes me an insider.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: What makes just a fan insider? It makes me a
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: member of the fan wagon. There you go that it is. Yeah,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: it's fascinating, isn't it? It is fascinating. It's how the
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: world goes around. Information is the most important thing. Uh.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Speaking of information, I want you to handicap something for
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: me right now. If you could take and then I'm
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: gonna let you go because I know you have a
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: bad toothache. If and we're also gonna bring Chris Raybond
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: on another Action network genius. If you could handicap the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the who will be taken first in the NFL Draft,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: the who will win best picture in the oscars um
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: or just a a f games. Of those three, which
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: would get the most action? I would say definitely the
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: Oscars Really Yeah? Yeah? Why you know we we've started
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: booking the draft a couple couple of years ago. We
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: petitioned the the Nevatic Game and control board, and there
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: was not as much ah interest in terms of betting
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: on it as you would have thought. Now, maybe that'll
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: pick up, but we know there's always been interest on
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: on the oscars, And I've spoken to people from New
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Jersey who are actually have it up on on the board,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: and I guess you're closer there, you might you might
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: know more. But there's tremendous interest in it. Wow, that's
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: really cool. No, but why don't you do it? Like,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: why don't you do the askers? Well, it's just it's
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: the regulators, you know. That's one thing we're learning. Each
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: state is different in terms of their laws and their regulations.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: We've been pushing for for for a lot of years.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: And eventually we'll see how it goes in New Jersey
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: and uh and then see if the regulators have a
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: different stance. But I think eventually it will come. Yeah,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: you guys gotta get on that because otherwise New Jersey
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: is gonna kick your ass. You know what I'm saying,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Like they are going to be so much more progressive
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: than you guys. It's gonna be ridiculous. You're gonna be
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: like what happened? Yep, we don't want that. You gotta
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: stay Disney World, man. People gotta believe that when they
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: come to Vegas, it's a special experience. They can't replicate it.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: In Vague in New Jersey. Yep, Scoots, you're the best man.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: I want you to feel better. You know what I'm saying.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: I will. I will shortly on my way to the dentist.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Go get that novacaine. All right, thanks man, We're gonna
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: come right back to the podcast in one second. But
• 25:10
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• 25:14
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• 25:16
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• 25:25
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• 25:29
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• 25:31
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• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Just close magazine, Blackjack, What are you doing in my
• 25:37
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• 25:40
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• 25:43
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• 25:47
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• 25:51
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• 26:00
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• 26:26
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• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Get Roman, get Hard. Let's get back to that show. Alright, everybody,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: We're back. Chad had to run and get his free
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: online consults from Roman. But I'm black Jack Fletcher, and
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: joining me today is senior editor and NFL analyst at
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the Action Network and our second best dressed man, Chris RayBan.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: How you doing today, Chrissie. What's going on? My guy? Chris?
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: You wrote an article for The Action Network earlier this
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: week that is kind of fascinating. You said that there
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: are only eleven teams in the NFL worth making a
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: future bet to win Super Bowl fifty four on right. Yeah,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: So what I thought was interesting was that, you know,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: super Bowl futures are the only thing you can really
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: better one right now in the NFL. So I thought
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: i'd look at, you know, how teams performed this year
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: and what that can tell us about their Super Bowl
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: chances for next year. And it turns out that of
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: the last thirty two Super Bowl winners or thirty of
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: thirty two, they finished at least thirteenth in d V
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: O A, and they finished at least in the top
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: eight in one of the three phases Offense, defense, Special
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: teams Now, most most of those are offense defense, but
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: occasionally you'll see a team that gets bumped up a
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: little first, some special teams. But um, it's kind of
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: uncanny how you can just eliminate essentially two thirds of
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: the week by looking at their performance from the prior season.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: But now, how do you do this without free agency?
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: The draft? I mean, the makeups of teams can change
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: pretty drastically, especially with some of the quarterbacks rumored to
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: be out there. Uh, you know, you never know what
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna do in the draft. How do you
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: feel about about making those projections before those things happen? Well,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: the purpose of this is not to really project exactly
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: who the Super Bowl winner is. It's to project who
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: it won't be. Right. So, right right around now, you
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people are kind of throwing throwing
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: things that the wall. They're throwing it at the wall,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: see if it's sticks. Right with the Super Bowl bets,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: and there's just a lot of teams that you shouldn't
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: betting on. The Packers they aren't included in this with
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. A lot of teams that get people in
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: trouble because you feel like they have a chance it's
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: just hard to get that good that fast in the
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: NFL if you're not already excelling in one phase of
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the game. It's just hard. It's too hard, you know, injuries, regression,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: just so many things have to go right for a
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: team to you know, come from the middle of the
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: pack or lower and win a super Bowl, not get
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: but win a super Bowl. Okay, so you said that
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: this is not about picking who's gonna win the super Bowl,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: but about who's not gonna win it. So having said
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: that who's gonna win the super Bowl, so the team
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: that actually I have as the so I did a
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: little projection, you know, with these with the eleven teams, who,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: by the way, are the Saints, Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Ravens, Patriots, Bears, Steelers, Texans, Vikings,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: and Broncos. So what I did was I took those
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: teams and essentially did a regression model looking at their
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: ranking in overall d v O A offense, defense, and
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: special teams, and I converted that to an implied probability
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: heavy mathunting accounting for still accounting for the remote possibility
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: of an outlier. By the way, because you don't want
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: to overvalue these teams either. So um, but yeah, so
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the number one team is your guys, the New Orleans Saints.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Now we got rocked. Now you said you account for offense, defense,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: special teams, all of those fancy math words you threw around,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: But how do you account for heartbreak? Because that exists
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: in New Orleans right now, and I don't know how
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: you get past it. I mean, I think the bigger
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: story of the heartbreak is the you know, the teams
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: that weren't included. I mean, you know New Orleans. We
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna be motivation. Let me tell you something.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon's eleven teams are on their bulletin boards right
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: now in Cleveland and Green Bay and all those other cities.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: They're saying, Raybon doesn't believe in us. You're motivating those teams.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints. They're looking at this like, what
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: did this guy see the NFC Championship game? I mean,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: did the Saints see the fourth quarter in overtime of
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: the NFC champions are game? Because I didn't see them there.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: So I'm just wonder when things are And yet this
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: is your top team, all right, So let's talk a
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: little bit about this team. Hold on, what was it?
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: This your top team since last preseason? I just asked
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: you who was going to win Super Bowl fifty four,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: and you said, the New Orleans Saints. How do we
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: measure give me a metric. How do we measure heart? Uh?
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady's got it in spades. So we measure heart
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: by by how many bradies you have as a team.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: So the Brady bunch. Oh, lots of bradies, lots of bradies.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk about this list a little bit.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: You've got a team on here that I You've got
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: actually three that I vehemently disagree with. The first one
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: is the Baltimore Ravens. You honestly think, with the way
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is as a passer and the weapons they have,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: this team could realistically win a Super Bowl next year.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I think you can't rule it out. They're one of
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the teams you can't rule out. And if you were,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: remember I've ruled him out. Remember though, when you look back,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: since the Bill Belichick Tom Brady dynasty has started, what
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: you know that one team that's always kind of been
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: in the mix, the Baltimore Ravens, and they actually did
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: get past the Patriots in that in that one year
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: when one time in eighteen, you know when Joe Flacco
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: kind of forgot who he was and was better than
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: that for a few games. But you know the thing
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: about the Ravens is they have the coaching staff, and
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: they have the defense, and they have a high upside quarterback. Now,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: if he's the same guy that was about to get
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: benched in the most important game of the year, then
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: of course it's out. But all I'm saying is that
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: the Ravens are a team unlike a lot of other
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: teams in the NFL. You don't you can't rule them
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: out yet according to according to these Well, let's move
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: on to the other two that I have an issue with.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: The first is the Minnesota Vikings. Have you seen Kirk
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Cousins play in primetime? He's not good. He's not good
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: in primetime at all. No. I mean, if Kirk Cousins
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: plays that way in prime time, Kirk Cousins might want
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to invest in some Roman for primetime at home, if
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Um, how do you have
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: them on this list with him at quarterback? Because they
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: have a defense. Again, this is this list is not
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: to project exactly who's gonna win what it is. No,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: But look, here's the thing. The whole point of this
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: is that you're looking at the teams that they're already
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: good enough that they could make a one year improvement.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: What it's saying is that for most teams in the league,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: about two thirds of the week, building a contender is
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: going to be at least a two year process. For
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, they already have a defense, they have
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: a average quarterback, and they have some good pieces on offense.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: They have a pretty solid coach in Mike Zimmer. They
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: can get it done. You shouldn't rule them out. That's
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: all we're saying. We're not saying, go bet on the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. Were saying, if you're making your futures bet
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: you should probably be ruling out twenty one of the
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: thirty two teams. The Vikings are not one of them.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: All right, one other team have on here before we
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: get some of the ones you've left off. The Denver Broncos. Listen,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: nobody was higher on Denver than I was to start
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: last year. I had them winning the a f C
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: West Wrong on that one. Um, How in the world
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: do you see them not only possibly surpassing the Chargers
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs, but winning a Super Bowl. There is
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: no bigger fan of Case the Machine keenom than than I.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: But how do you see that? Well, I think it
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: starts with addition. By subtraction, you get Van's Joseph out
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: of there, and that is already just a major step up.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: What people didn't realize about the Broncos were that they
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: were actually a top five team in defensive d v
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: o A and they were above averageing on offense as well.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: So I want to stop you for one second. Can
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: you explain to our audience what d v o A
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: and me right? So, d v o A is a
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: it's a Football Outsiders metric and it essentially grades every
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: play by the way it contributes to ultimately winning the game,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: and then it takes that in adjust for strength of schedule,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: and it's just defense adjusted value over average. That's what
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: it is. So if you have a ten percent d
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: v o A, that means you're ten percent better than
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: the average team at whatever we're discussing, whether it's offensive.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Thank you that help. Okay, so now let's talk a
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: little bit about some of the teams you've left off
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: here and one omission that I find glaring is the
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. You don't think that that team has a
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: reasonable chance to win a Super Bowl next this The
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: model doesn't think. I don't think your model, I don't think.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: To me, I don't think they do. I thought they
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: did this year, um, and I was really high on them.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: But you know, the number show, you know, the numbers
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: show that it's not surprising that they didn't, and it's
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: they show that it's going to be really difficult for
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: them to kind of get back to where they were
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: two years ago. They had a big drop off um
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: from this year to last year. And what a lot
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: of people don't realize is when they came out of
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: it seemed like they came out of nowhere to win
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl the year before. They were actually one
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in terms of d V away
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the year before that. And so that's what we're trying
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: to find with these models. We're trying to kind of say,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: these are the teams that have a shot, and these
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: are the teams that don't. And the Eagles are kind
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: of a little too. You know, they're above average and
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of facets, but we don't know we don't.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: What about the New York Giants, se Kwon Barfley year two,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Odell Beckham healthy, potentially someone other than the mouth breathing
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Eli Manning at quarterback. Do you see them possibly going
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: on a run? Why not? I think they could make
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: an improvement in terms of their wins. And that's the
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: big upshot of this. It's that there are a lot
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: of teams that can improve, but don't bet on them
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Win totals, bet on their
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: playoff odds, their Super Bowl odds are you're just throwing
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: your mo away essentially. All right, let me ask you
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: one more here, and this is one I think a
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: lot of people are talking about right now. The Cleveland Browns,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: And this this is a two part question, so stay focused.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: The Browns just signed Kareem Hunt yesterday, controversial signing, obviously
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: off of the issues that he had last year. Can
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: the city releasing him? Cleveland picks him up pretty quickly
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: in the off season. Here releases a I'll describe it
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: as a vanilla statement about the signing. What do you
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: think about the signing and what does he do for
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: their chances? Assuming he's back on the field in week
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: five or week seven, you know the signing was. It
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: kind of caught me off guard a little bit. I
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: think if you look at teams that have been, you know, contenders.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: You look at Sean McVeigh this year and what he
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: did with c. J. Anderson and Todd Gurley, Bill Belichick
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: has been doing forever, rotating to three four backs. You
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: can't count on backs to stay healthy, but you need
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of backs. They touched the ball more than
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: any other player on your team, and so the more
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: good backs you can have, the better. So I think
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: it increases their chances. However, the numbers show that a
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: team like Cleveland they're still probably a year away. We
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: have better than chance that they're at least a year away.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: And that's the big takeaway. A lot of the teams
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: that were really high on that we think are going
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: to make big improvement next year again, hit the win totals,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: hit the playoff markets, the Super Bowl odds a little
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: bit out of reach. Check back next year, see where
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: they are. That will give you a better indication of
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: their of their future chances. Al Right, so let me
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: ask you this, Chris Raybond. Time for you to sit
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: squarely on the hot seat. Which Super Bowl futures are
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: you betting? I am betting on the Houston Texans because
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: you know, I love me some Deshaun Watson. We saw
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: what he did in year one. They kind of had
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: some offensive line problems this year. They didn't get in
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: as many shootouts, but he's still bald. Deshaun Watson and
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: the Texans I'm betting on. I'm betting on the Kansas
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Remember, the Patriots have not won back to
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: back Super Bowl since the oh for oh five seasons,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: so it's been a while since they've won two in
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: a row. We've been wat since they've won two in
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: a row. Probably will probably get to the SC Championship game,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: but their season doesn't start championship pretty much. I agree
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: with you about Kansas City pick. I think that team
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: is when this New England died to see. Eventually, I'm
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: assuming it has to end at some point. Does end,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Kansas City feels like the next team to kind of
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: step up and take the reins. And I should note
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: that it's kind of interesting that there's seven a FC
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: teams and only four NFC teams, so you know they're
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: the Patriots do have a little competition this time around.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, anytime you're you're gonna face Patrick Mahomes and
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: potentially again in you know, his home, it's gonna be tough.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: But um, you know, I think the Patriots still have
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: as good as shot as anyone. But again, you know,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: they don't win everywhere, and there's not really any value
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: on that. I'm glad you you're mentioning the Patriots here, Christy,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: What do you see happening there? I mean, what what
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: does for the New England Patriots? You know, I think
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be more of the same because if
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: you look at Tom Brady and what he's been able
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: to do quarterbacks, intelligence is such a big factor. You know,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the athletic decline, Yeah, maybe it's happening slightly, but you
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: have Belichick game planning, and you have Tom Brady making
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: decisions before the snap and after the snap, they're gonna
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: be able to get it done. I mean, their game
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: plan in the Super Bowl against the Rams was brilliant
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: and that's not going to change. So I think they'll
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: be in the conversation until Tom Brady retires or Belichick retires.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Do they win another Super Bowl? I'm gonna say no,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Raybonds got the dynasty over. Now he's given bulletin board
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: material to New England. All right, Chris, you just motivated
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: them for the move forward. Chris, thank you so much
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: for talking to us about your eleven teams. Here. If
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Chad were here, this is where the show would end.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: But he's not, and it won't. Chris. I know you're
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: just like me, a big Cinophile. We've got the Oscars
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: coming up at the end of this month chat and
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: I'll be talking about this later this week. But while
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: you're here, I want to get your take. Give me
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: some of your picks for the big awards. So I
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: like for Best Supporting Actress like Regina King from If
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: bo Street Could Talk. Favorites have won that awards seven
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: years in a row. She's the favorite. Same thing for
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Rommy Mallett. No, No, Bradley Cooper plus eighteen hundred. I
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: watched the movie again on Sunday night. The emotional depth,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: range and the fact that he made himself a singer.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: He didn't just play a singer like Rommy Malick. He
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: made himself actually to a Grammy Award winning singer black Jack.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: They don't give the award for who made you cry
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: the most. That's not the point, award, that's not the point.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: But I do like Green Book for Best Picture. Now,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: controversy there about Shirley and his family and there is,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: but I feel like the the next it's just going
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: to I think the Academy still enjoyed the movie, and
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: I think, you know, the way they kind of presented
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: the story of like you know you have this, you
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: know this kind of by racial friendship going on and
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: all these things, I think they're still gonna dig it,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: and I like, you kind of hit on it a
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: couple weeks ago, and I'll take that bet. I don't
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: know if they're gonna give a Netflix film. Yeah, like
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Quarron is getting, I think he's got. I think that's
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: a lock. But for Best Picture, a lot of times
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: it's a weight pusher. And if you look at you
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: know who's been kind of getting the weight push up
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the odds, it's been Green Book, And so you know,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: it hasn't happened often where you win a Best Picture
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: without a Best directing. I'm only four times. Argo was
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: the last one, So it can happen in modern day. Um,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: and I think, yeah, my money's there. I got it
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: at a plus three fifty a couple of days ago.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: So if the Stars Born doesn't win Best Picture, in
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Bradley Cooper doesn't win Best Actor, I will riot. We gotta,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: we gotta get inside action on this, right, I am,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: I am confident that neither is what I mean. What
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: happened at the h What happened at the Grammys? Your
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: pick with shallow? What happened there? Bradley Cooper still won
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: a Grammy. He has one for one with Grammy nominations.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: If the man doesn't win an Oscar, there should be
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: an investigation, a congressional investigation into this so called nameless,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: faceless academy strong words. We actually you talk about boats
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: and boarn material. You know what? I might run for
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: president on that platform. Wait? Am I old enough to
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: run for it? I don't think I am. Oh that's
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: a mystery, my friend. Well, you seem not to know
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: enough a lot about movies to run so I can
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: make a good pay. All right, listen to this guy
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: getting smart? All right, Get the hell out of here,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: all right, everybody, thank you for listening to the favorites.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: We will be back on Friday with myself and the
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Millie Monster. You can find us on Apple Podcasts, on iTunes,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Radio dot com, Slash, the Action Network, and wherever else
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Thank you, we love you.