Latest / Foul Territory / Bob Nightengale's Notes on buyers/sellers + Travis Sawchik’s swing analysis on Tatis & Vladdy Jr.

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Bob Nightengale's Notes on buyers/sellers + Travis Sawchik’s swing analysis on Tatis & Vladdy Jr. · Foul Territory

0:09
Speaker 1: USA Today is Bob Nightingale a little FT insider segment
0:12
Speaker 1: here as we'll go over what's happening as we now
0:15
Speaker 1: have hit the month of June, Bob, and that means
0:18
Speaker 1: we are officially okay to talk about trades in any capacity. Okay,
0:23
Speaker 1: I know we've still got a couple months to go,
0:24
Speaker 1: but I feel like June is the official kicking off
0:26
Speaker 1: point and the.
0:27
Speaker 2: Headliner has come back to the mix. Bob.
0:30
Speaker 1: You received a lot of flak for an article probably
0:33
Speaker 1: about a month ago that listed a number of teams
0:36
Speaker 1: that could be sellers at the deadline and who they'd sell.
0:39
Speaker 1: The Tigers and Scooble were on there, and people were commenting, well,
0:43
Speaker 1: you can't do that. The Tigers are going to be
0:44
Speaker 1: in the playoff mix, and they picked up from or
0:47
Speaker 1: this offseat and all of that. What would you like
0:49
Speaker 1: to say it's all those commenters.
0:50
Speaker 3: Now, well, they'll give me the biggest sellers of the deadline.
0:54
Speaker 4: I mean, whether they lost twenty to twenty four.
0:56
Speaker 3: Now, since Scooba went down, it's been a nightmare of
0:59
Speaker 3: a season. I mean, you can argue their season is
1:02
Speaker 3: more disappointed in the Mets in the fact that you
1:05
Speaker 3: know Tigers were probably heavy favorites to win the division,
1:08
Speaker 3: should be in the World Series, and just you know,
1:11
Speaker 3: a complete complete collapse. So we'll see who else is
1:15
Speaker 3: being dealt besides school, though he won't be the only one,
1:17
Speaker 3: that's for sure.
1:19
Speaker 5: Hey, Bob, before right over your notebook, before we get
1:22
Speaker 5: into the specifics of all the different teams you've talked about,
1:26
Speaker 5: do you believe like June first is kind of like
1:28
Speaker 5: that mark of the season where there's teams that are
1:30
Speaker 5: having success you can buy in them, there's teams that
1:32
Speaker 5: aren't having success. Do we have a big enough body
1:35
Speaker 5: of work for us to be like that's just kind
1:37
Speaker 5: of who they are.
1:39
Speaker 4: Almost? I mean, I think now the phone calls, you
1:41
Speaker 4: know take place.
1:42
Speaker 3: You know, there's still you know, if you're the America League,
1:44
Speaker 3: it's like everybody's alive. American League is much tougher to
1:47
Speaker 3: judge than the National League.
1:50
Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean, you still think a few more weeks.
1:53
Speaker 3: It's not like people are waiting for the Tigers to
1:55
Speaker 3: call in school. Well, you got to call them at
1:58
Speaker 3: some point and say, okay, be monitoring him.
2:01
Speaker 4: It'd be very.
2:01
Speaker 3: Interesting when he does come back here. You know, it
2:04
Speaker 3: should be back in a few weeks. Is that you
2:06
Speaker 3: know how many scouts are at his games every start
2:09
Speaker 3: he makes. But I think at this point teams kind
2:12
Speaker 3: of get a realistic feeling like, Okay, I'll be really
2:15
Speaker 3: contenders or let's shoot for twenty twenty seven.
2:19
Speaker 6: Let me ask you this questions. I talked about schools.
2:23
Speaker 6: I said, if I was a president of GM, I
2:26
Speaker 6: would give him everybody up to get this guy. Talked
2:29
Speaker 6: about that in Kara Crochet. Now we know there's not
2:33
Speaker 6: a lot of teams that can pick him up with
2:35
Speaker 6: what they want. But who do you think are some
2:37
Speaker 6: of the contenders that are going to be vying for
2:39
Speaker 6: a guy like Trek Scoogl.
2:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be interesting to see if the Tigers eat
2:44
Speaker 3: something up money, you know, by him win that big
2:45
Speaker 3: arbitration case. It's still going to cost a team about
2:48
Speaker 3: eleven million dollars, which is pretty high. That being said,
2:52
Speaker 3: you figure the Dodgers have got to be in the mix.
2:54
Speaker 3: I'm not saying the Dodgers need him. H you know,
2:57
Speaker 3: Partigua to get snow back, you know at some point
2:59
Speaker 3: late Glass now too.
3:02
Speaker 4: But you know you got them, you got the Yankees.
3:05
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the Yankees got them, then they
3:08
Speaker 3: be the World Series' favorites.
3:10
Speaker 4: Toronto Blue Jays, they'll be in the mix.
3:12
Speaker 3: You figure that you saved three hundred and fifty million
3:15
Speaker 3: dollars when Kylin Tucker didn't get to take their money,
3:17
Speaker 3: so they still got that in they count. You know,
3:21
Speaker 3: the pod Rays very aggressive, not much left on farm system,
3:25
Speaker 3: so it might be a little bit more of a
3:26
Speaker 3: dark horse. And we'll see about the Cubs and Brewers.
3:30
Speaker 3: You know, the Cubs already went, you know, semi all
3:32
Speaker 3: in a year ago when they trained for Kylin Tucker
3:35
Speaker 3: and gave away some good prospects back, particularly Cam Smith.
3:39
Speaker 4: I love to see the Brewers do something.
3:41
Speaker 3: I mean, Brewers did it back in the day with
3:43
Speaker 3: CC Sabathia and Doug Ulman got him the first week
3:46
Speaker 3: of July and you know, got you the playoffs and
3:49
Speaker 3: kind of changed their entire fate what the franchise has become.
3:55
Speaker 3: So I love to see the Brewers involved. I don't
3:57
Speaker 3: know if they will or not, but you know, they
3:59
Speaker 3: got a lot of prospects to get it done.
4:02
Speaker 5: Two part question Bob on that schoopl note, would it
4:06
Speaker 5: behoove a team to kind of go out and try
4:08
Speaker 5: to acquire him earlier than the deadline, like especially now
4:11
Speaker 5: when he's kind of hurt coming back from an injury.
4:14
Speaker 5: Would it cost a little bit less? And then I'm
4:16
Speaker 5: reading your notes about the right handed hitters with the
4:19
Speaker 5: Philadelphia Phillies two seventeen batting average, three fifteen on base percentage.
4:25
Speaker 5: What's it going to take for them to get Mike Trout.
4:26
Speaker 5: I know Mike's talked about being super loyal, wanting to
4:29
Speaker 5: stay in La Anaheim the rest of his career, his
4:32
Speaker 5: whole career, but Philly's got to be tempting to him.
4:35
Speaker 5: It's the closest team geographically to him going back home.
4:38
Speaker 5: What an amazing story that would be for him to
4:40
Speaker 5: get a chance to play kind of in front of
4:41
Speaker 5: his hometown.
4:44
Speaker 3: It would be, but you know, he's just very comfortable there.
4:46
Speaker 3: I don't think there's anyone in the world he says, hey,
4:49
Speaker 3: would you move me to Philadelphia? And I'm not sure
4:52
Speaker 3: Philadelphia would take on that kind of money too. You're
4:54
Speaker 3: talking about one hundred and forty million dollars to a
4:56
Speaker 3: guy who has been hurt and off a lot, you know,
4:59
Speaker 3: over the years, last than they want. As you put
5:01
Speaker 3: that kind of money in the trout and then he
5:03
Speaker 3: has heard again.
5:04
Speaker 4: But he's very comfortable there. You know.
5:06
Speaker 3: It's like, hey, Shoviotani at the Angels and match the offer.
5:10
Speaker 3: He'd be an Angel today. He didn't want to leave Anaheim.
5:13
Speaker 3: Very comfortable too. So I used don't see a Mike
5:16
Speaker 3: Trout thing. They could certainly, you know, use the ringing
5:20
Speaker 3: in a bet somewhere. Uh, you know, maybe they reach
5:24
Speaker 3: out to the Tigers one of those teams that have
5:26
Speaker 3: a chance don't have a chance, or the Mets. But
5:29
Speaker 3: I used to don't see Trout leaving Anaheim. They really don't.
5:34
Speaker 6: Athletics pitching staff here we go. I mean they came
5:37
Speaker 6: out nice and hot. Now they're kind of fizzle. And
5:39
Speaker 6: you wrote about how you're understanding to have a basically
5:42
Speaker 6: a year and a half left in Sacramento. Talk a
5:44
Speaker 6: little bit about them, and you know what you were
5:47
Speaker 6: letting everybody know about them and the staff.
5:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, they just can't pitch there. I mean, I think
5:53
Speaker 3: he's in their head now. It looks like a coarse
5:55
Speaker 3: Fiell type thing. And uh, you know they've been getting
5:58
Speaker 3: beat up at home. They play much better on the road.
6:01
Speaker 3: Be fascinated next week they got home games but in
6:03
Speaker 3: Las Vegas against the Brewers and the Rockies. So that'll
6:06
Speaker 3: be intriguing to seeing how those guys had jested that.
6:10
Speaker 3: But I think in the off season, I think the
6:12
Speaker 3: A's will be very aggressive because they know they want
6:15
Speaker 3: to have a winning team, a playoff team. I think
6:17
Speaker 3: before they get to Vegas in twenty eight, that day
6:20
Speaker 3: will probably be ready, you know, men next summer, and
6:23
Speaker 3: I think they'll be telling the pitchers, hey, you only
6:26
Speaker 3: got a pitch on our bandbox, you know one year,
6:28
Speaker 3: then you get to go to Vegas. You get to
6:30
Speaker 3: being the Strip, no state taxes. I think they'll be
6:33
Speaker 3: a team to be wrecking with this winter.
6:37
Speaker 5: Bob, tell me a little bit about the Chicago White
6:39
Speaker 5: Sox winning their thirtieth game.
6:40
Speaker 7: I know it took them till August sixteenth. Last year.
6:43
Speaker 5: We've talked about kind of the al being watered down.
6:46
Speaker 5: Do you believe they have enough to kind of be
6:48
Speaker 5: a contender for that wildcard spot in the American League.
6:53
Speaker 4: I think they'll hang around. I still think they'll fall short.
6:56
Speaker 3: The one thing about the White Sox, and you know
6:58
Speaker 3: some of these that our teams are surprised, thing like
7:00
Speaker 3: the Saint Louis Cardinals. Is you s went to this
7:03
Speaker 3: painful rebuild process. The last thing they want to do
7:06
Speaker 3: is throw those prospects into a trade and go for
7:10
Speaker 3: it when realistically they're you know, thinking about twenty seven
7:12
Speaker 3: and twenty eight. I think, now this shows them they
7:15
Speaker 3: are a year ahead of schedule. They love the way
7:17
Speaker 3: they're playing, but I don't see them being a you know,
7:20
Speaker 3: aggressive buyer at the deadline, just because of all the
7:23
Speaker 3: pain they've already gone through getting those prospects. Now they
7:26
Speaker 3: know they're close, so I think they'll hang around the
7:29
Speaker 3: wild card. I still think, you know, Cleveland, you know,
7:32
Speaker 3: runs away with this thing, and you know every Cleveland's
7:35
Speaker 3: like Milwaukee every year, nobody takes them seriously to win again,
7:39
Speaker 3: thinking the magic runs out and every year and they
7:41
Speaker 3: get the last laugh.
7:44
Speaker 6: I want to talk a little American League East again,
7:46
Speaker 6: talk about the Tampa Bay Rays. How about a fantastic
7:48
Speaker 6: story this has been Nobody really saw this coming, h
7:52
Speaker 6: except maybe the Rais and some other people. But talk
7:55
Speaker 6: to me a little bit about one key person that
7:58
Speaker 6: you think is why the Rays are getting over this
8:02
Speaker 6: hump and are in first place, and talk a little
8:04
Speaker 6: about this team and how they're just transforming everything and
8:07
Speaker 6: winning ball games left and right.
8:10
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think they've actually surprised themselves. Doc.
8:12
Speaker 3: You remember when Eric Neander made those traids, It's like, Okay,
8:16
Speaker 3: we're doing this for the future. You know, when they
8:17
Speaker 3: traded bos, when they let Fairbanks go trade a low.
8:22
Speaker 3: So you know, they' made a lot of moves building
8:24
Speaker 3: for twenty seven and twenty eight. So we'll see how
8:27
Speaker 3: along out last. Yeah, the pitching has been very good.
8:31
Speaker 3: I mean, what a pickup by Nick Martinez one year
8:34
Speaker 3: thirteen million dollars and this guy should be in the
8:37
Speaker 3: All Star Game. He's never been an All Star in
8:40
Speaker 3: his career, but he's been one of the greatest pickups
8:42
Speaker 3: of the winner. Really stabilize that staff right in the clubhouse.
8:48
Speaker 3: So I think Nick's had been a big key. But
8:51
Speaker 3: same thing as a White Sox and Cardinals. I used
8:54
Speaker 3: don't see them being real aggressive as a you know,
8:57
Speaker 3: being a buyer at the deadline just because year or
9:01
Speaker 3: up for one year from now.
9:03
Speaker 5: Yeah, we we love talking about the trades that potentially
9:06
Speaker 5: could happen, but let's talk about a trade that didn't happen.
9:08
Speaker 7: The Nats keeping CJ.
9:10
Speaker 5: Abrams, and obviously that team's been off to an incredible start.
9:13
Speaker 7: I don't think anyone saw it coming.
9:15
Speaker 5: Do you see the Nats as a team that is
9:17
Speaker 5: here to stay? And do you see a potential for
9:20
Speaker 5: the Nats to keep CJ.
9:21
Speaker 7: Abrams long term?
9:22
Speaker 5: Pair him up with James Wood and you got a
9:24
Speaker 5: pretty nice one two punch right there.
9:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's another big surprise. I mean, no one saw
9:29
Speaker 3: them being around a young got a winning record. It's
9:32
Speaker 3: the person there winning record at this juncture since twenty
9:35
Speaker 3: twenty one, their best starts.
9:37
Speaker 4: Since twenty eighteen.
9:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they you know, they were dangled Abrams
9:43
Speaker 3: out there, just like they did McKenzie Gore. The Anthinks
9:46
Speaker 3: were going to trade McKenzie Gore and then Texas stepped
9:48
Speaker 3: up gave him five prospects. They never came close to
9:52
Speaker 3: what Jilly Abrams uh, you know, according to Paul d'lmoni,
9:57
Speaker 3: and he says, uh, you know, they love the way
9:59
Speaker 3: he's looking right now. And what Abrahams appreciated during the
10:03
Speaker 3: Winner was that they kept him abreus what's going on,
10:06
Speaker 3: who was involved. They'll let him know if anything was
10:09
Speaker 3: coming close, and they said they're going to keep that
10:12
Speaker 3: whole philosophy for all our players going forward.
10:15
Speaker 4: It just makes them more comfortable instead of reading their
10:19
Speaker 4: names and trade rumors and having the radio sallets.
10:21
Speaker 3: But their front office they're keeping them breast as far
10:24
Speaker 3: as okay, who's really after me? And if anything's serious,
10:29
Speaker 3: they're going to let me know. And look at Abrams,
10:31
Speaker 3: it's the best start of his career and he should
10:34
Speaker 3: be the out back in the All Star Game.
10:38
Speaker 2: Bob.
10:39
Speaker 1: While we're on the Nationals, I'll flip it over to
10:42
Speaker 1: the American League and a White Sox team that we
10:45
Speaker 1: probably thought we were still going to talk about as
10:48
Speaker 1: sellers at the trade deadline.
10:50
Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to be the case, between the.
10:52
Speaker 1: Start that they're off to and the state of the
10:54
Speaker 1: American League wildcard situation.
10:56
Speaker 2: Curious for your thoughts on this team now riding.
10:58
Speaker 1: I think this is their third different five game winning
11:01
Speaker 1: streak of the season already. They lose Murkami, which we'll
11:04
Speaker 1: talk about more later in our show, but still pick
11:08
Speaker 1: up some dubs. How much do you think the injury
11:09
Speaker 1: factors in and how aggressive do you think this team
11:12
Speaker 1: could be at the trade deadline to try and make
11:15
Speaker 1: a wild card run. Or a division run. I should say, right,
11:18
Speaker 1: because the team's gone through a lot of pain. Do
11:20
Speaker 1: you think that Jerry Reinsdorf and Chris Gatz and the
11:24
Speaker 1: front office will make a decent push because a huge
11:27
Speaker 1: success would be this team actually cracking October again.
11:31
Speaker 4: Yeah.
11:31
Speaker 3: I mean if they get a freebee where just costs money,
11:34
Speaker 3: they wouldn't do it, say, did Tigers, Okay, you're Scoobo,
11:38
Speaker 3: We're just gonna load his contract. That's not gonna happen.
11:40
Speaker 3: But there's cases like that. I think the White Sox
11:43
Speaker 3: would get involved. I just don't see the White Sox
11:45
Speaker 3: tradewaight prospects and they've gone to this whole painful process.
11:49
Speaker 3: You're not gonna just you know, tradewaight prospects now and
11:52
Speaker 3: go for it. And I think the Tiger's I mean
11:55
Speaker 3: the White Sox realistic too. It's like you again, the playoffs,
11:58
Speaker 3: how deep are they going? You know, they don't have
12:00
Speaker 3: those starters said okay, we're going to knock off you know,
12:04
Speaker 3: the Yankees in those sort of teams or Seattle Mariners.
12:08
Speaker 3: So I think if they can just pay for some
12:12
Speaker 3: players that come over, they'll do that. As long as
12:14
Speaker 3: it's not prospects involved, So long answer, I don't think
12:18
Speaker 3: they'd be.
12:19
Speaker 4: That aggressive that deadline.
12:20
Speaker 3: There's certainly not going to give up players, and they're like,
12:22
Speaker 3: you know the fact that people are coming out now
12:25
Speaker 3: to games, more money in the conference. So I certainly
12:29
Speaker 3: believe they'd be very aggressive this winner at the for
12:32
Speaker 3: free agency.
12:34
Speaker 5: Bob, you also wrote about the potential and I know
12:37
Speaker 5: it's been talked about MLB adding a couple of new teams,
12:41
Speaker 5: and you talked about.
12:42
Speaker 7: An owner saying expansion would be stupid.
12:44
Speaker 5: Take us through that and then give us your opinion
12:47
Speaker 5: on if you think Baseball should expand.
12:50
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was surprised.
12:50
Speaker 3: I thought it was like a done deal, like, okay,
12:52
Speaker 3: we'll have an expansion here. You know by twenty and
12:56
Speaker 3: thirty one, twenty thirty two, you know, Salt Lake City
12:59
Speaker 3: is gonna be one.
13:00
Speaker 4: West Nashville in the east.
13:02
Speaker 3: There's been some pushback by some owners executives saying, wait
13:05
Speaker 3: a minute, you know, be sure we want to do this.
13:08
Speaker 3: We use subsidize the Rais and Marlins for all these years.
13:11
Speaker 3: They said, if you you know when the Marlins came
13:14
Speaker 3: in in nineteen ninety three that the Central Fund they
13:18
Speaker 3: paid the Marlins born to have billion dollars in your
13:21
Speaker 3: time on a franchise when it cost ninety million dollars
13:24
Speaker 3: for expansion. It's a great deal for the Marlins. So
13:27
Speaker 3: I don't think they want to get that thing. You know,
13:29
Speaker 3: both those markets, Salt Lake in Nashville, those are the
13:33
Speaker 3: two teams certainly small and medium markets.
13:36
Speaker 4: They're not gonna be.
13:36
Speaker 3: Paying revenue sharing to buy the revenue sharries recipient, I
13:41
Speaker 3: can say.
13:42
Speaker 4: So, we'll see what happens. I still think it goes through.
13:46
Speaker 3: But it's interesting that it's not like one hundred percent
13:49
Speaker 3: or you know, the owners are saying, you know, we
13:52
Speaker 3: don't want to start subsidizing two more teams. And if
13:55
Speaker 3: we have a nice big TV contract, and I know
13:58
Speaker 3: Rob Manford has talked about these teams can get maybe
14:00
Speaker 3: two or fifty million dollars a year beginning in twenty
14:03
Speaker 3: twenty nine. If that's the case, you really want to
14:05
Speaker 3: cut that piece of pie by two more slides.
14:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's my main question for you, Bob. You know,
14:11
Speaker 1: this to me ties into the CBA, right. MLB wants
14:15
Speaker 1: a salary cap. They say they will split the TV
14:19
Speaker 1: deals really down the middle for everyone. If that happens,
14:23
Speaker 1: if we don't get a cap, and then MLB uses
14:26
Speaker 1: that to say, well, then we're not going to split
14:27
Speaker 1: the TV money. Does that factor into the way that
14:30
Speaker 1: expansion is looked at, right, Because if it goes the
14:34
Speaker 1: direction of what MLB wants and we do end up
14:37
Speaker 1: with a cap and we have TV money split, like
14:40
Speaker 1: you mentioned, the split is now divided with thirty two
14:44
Speaker 1: teams and not with thirty teams. If they're not splitting
14:46
Speaker 1: it the same way, the votes probably go more in
14:48
Speaker 1: favor of expansion, right, because then they get the money
14:51
Speaker 1: and you're still splitting national TV money, but you're not
14:53
Speaker 1: splitting local TV money. Right, There would be less to
14:56
Speaker 1: be concerned about if it's more of a hey, everyone's
14:58
Speaker 1: still on their own.
15:01
Speaker 4: Yeah.
15:01
Speaker 3: I just think they uh, you know, they get they
15:04
Speaker 3: got hurt by what's happening in Florida. You know, I
15:06
Speaker 3: think coloradis hold held their own Croly Arizona has you know,
15:09
Speaker 3: Tampa has been winning, but just you know, finished last
15:12
Speaker 3: next to last attendants every year in the Marlins. You know,
15:16
Speaker 3: when those two World Series early, but they haven't drawn
15:18
Speaker 3: in a couple of decades. They don't want to go
15:21
Speaker 3: through that thing, you know, not saying they won't have
15:24
Speaker 3: nice attendance and say salt Lake or Nashville, but it's
15:27
Speaker 3: not like people are going to turn on the TV
15:28
Speaker 3: set to go watch a Nashville player. Salt Lake just
15:32
Speaker 3: not that big media market. So I think they got
15:35
Speaker 3: to take a hard look, like, Okay, is that up
15:37
Speaker 3: front expansion money.
15:38
Speaker 4: Gonna be worthd it?
15:39
Speaker 3: And our teams were going to spend three billion dollars
15:42
Speaker 3: to get into the door and then spending her you know,
15:45
Speaker 3: two billion or so for a stadium and launching costs
15:48
Speaker 3: and everything else like that. So you know, I know
15:51
Speaker 3: Baseball wants to expand I know they want thirty two
15:53
Speaker 3: teams for you know, radical realignment, no no more nationally,
15:58
Speaker 3: no more American League and all that, but with the
16:01
Speaker 3: economic part, like several people said, it just doesn't make
16:04
Speaker 3: economic sense.
16:06
Speaker 1: One more on this, Bob, because sometimes we look at
16:09
Speaker 1: sports and the rules that are in place with teams
16:12
Speaker 1: like it's gospel, like it's the Bible. But I'm curious,
16:15
Speaker 1: do you think to combat this. There's a world where
16:17
Speaker 1: they do bring on to expansion teams and they tell
16:20
Speaker 1: them you're not going to be involved in you know,
16:23
Speaker 1: the revenue sharing the same way that we're doing with
16:26
Speaker 1: other teams. That's part of what you sign on for,
16:28
Speaker 1: right If you believe that your city's going to be
16:30
Speaker 1: sustainable and you're going to be able to put together
16:32
Speaker 1: this massive powerhouse franchise that's going to be successful and
16:36
Speaker 1: profitable and contribute to our league, we're not going to
16:40
Speaker 1: not sharing.
16:40
Speaker 2: That's different.
16:41
Speaker 1: Right when they're sharing TV money, I'm saying, they're not
16:44
Speaker 1: saying we have to do this extra rev share money
16:46
Speaker 1: where let's say we still have the luxury tax system.
16:48
Speaker 1: That's going to a team that's in a smaller market
16:51
Speaker 1: I'll use I'll use Salt Lake City.
16:53
Speaker 2: As an example.
16:53
Speaker 1: I don't know off the top of my head what
16:55
Speaker 1: market number they are, but I think they're going to
16:56
Speaker 1: get a team out West. And if that's the case,
16:58
Speaker 1: you know MLB can say, regardless of what's happening here,
17:01
Speaker 1: we're not giving you the extra money on that revenue
17:03
Speaker 1: sharing side that some of these other cities have been getting,
17:06
Speaker 1: like Cleveland and the city's in Florida.
17:10
Speaker 3: He could only do that, Scott, I mean, I think
17:12
Speaker 3: if Baseball to do it over again, they would have
17:14
Speaker 3: contracted by two teams. I mean, twenty eight teams would
17:17
Speaker 3: have made more sense than thirty. So they could put
17:20
Speaker 3: anything in that agreement, like you said, hey, you're not
17:22
Speaker 3: gonna get any money here for ten years. Hey if
17:24
Speaker 3: you don't, if you don't start producing and showing the
17:28
Speaker 3: revenue results, you know, we have the right to contract
17:31
Speaker 3: you in you know, ten years, fifteen years. So they
17:33
Speaker 3: can certainly put all kinds of stipulations in there to
17:36
Speaker 3: make sure that they just don't jump in and all
17:39
Speaker 3: of a sudden they're eating up, you know, all the
17:41
Speaker 3: revenue sharing money. You know, I think the Marlins get
17:44
Speaker 3: about eighty million dollars a year. You know, that's that's a.
17:47
Speaker 4: Lot of money. So they don't want to give another you.
17:49
Speaker 3: Know, eighty or one hundred to Nashville and Salt Lake
17:51
Speaker 3: City too, or you know, whoever the two expansion teams are.
17:54
Speaker 4: Although I do think it's those two teams, particularly Salt Lake.
17:57
Speaker 3: I think Salt Lake's a lock, and I Celtic Nashville
18:01
Speaker 3: is still the heavy heavy favorite Bob.
18:05
Speaker 5: Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs have an identical record.
18:09
Speaker 5: More surprised about the success of the Pittsburgh Pirates or
18:12
Speaker 5: the struggles of the Chicago Cubs.
18:15
Speaker 4: I would say probably struggles of the Cubs.
18:18
Speaker 3: I mean, particularly when they had the two ten game
18:20
Speaker 3: winn EA strakes and you know, winning twenty twenty three
18:23
Speaker 3: games and here they are, you know, with.
18:26
Speaker 4: The worst record than the White Sox in the same town.
18:29
Speaker 3: So just the Cubs, you know, I think everybody in
18:32
Speaker 3: the world picked the Cubs to win the Vision. People
18:34
Speaker 3: do that every single year. But you thought that they
18:37
Speaker 3: would take off. I think that the pitching has let
18:39
Speaker 3: them down. That's what I think. You know, they got
18:42
Speaker 3: to dabble at least inquire in the Schoogle sweepstakes, but
18:45
Speaker 3: I think they have to get a frontline starter if
18:48
Speaker 3: they're going to you know, make the playoffs and make
18:50
Speaker 3: a run. I think anything less than an LCS appearance,
18:54
Speaker 3: you know, it would be a huge disappointment for the
18:56
Speaker 3: Cubs and our fans. Where Pittsburgh, you thought, okay, they
18:59
Speaker 3: may the moves, they picked up some offense, they should
19:02
Speaker 3: be around five hundred in the r I know they've
19:05
Speaker 3: had a lot of dropped off in recent years, but
19:08
Speaker 3: I think this team is you know who they are
19:11
Speaker 3: right now. With the record shows where the Cubs I
19:13
Speaker 3: think should be better than the record.
19:15
Speaker 4: Shows.
19:16
Speaker 6: Talk about some teams in the National League that haven't
19:19
Speaker 6: been doing well, Cubs for one, They're still right there
19:21
Speaker 6: in the mix. Talk about the AL East, Toronto, Baltimore
19:25
Speaker 6: Red Sox, like this is right now, and I talked
19:28
Speaker 6: about it before. If you weren't, if you didn't see it.
19:30
Speaker 6: But they all still have a chance to make a
19:31
Speaker 6: wild card. I'm not saying they don't have a chance
19:33
Speaker 6: to win the division, but at the same time, it's
19:36
Speaker 6: not looking that way. What say you about all these
19:39
Speaker 6: alas teams that are supposed to be dominant teams are
19:42
Speaker 6: struggling right now, left and right to get back up
19:44
Speaker 6: in the lead in the AL East.
19:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Baltimore was a bitter, bitter disappointment. They're
19:50
Speaker 3: serting to play better now. They had that, you know,
19:52
Speaker 3: the massive comeback on Saturday and uh, you know, came
19:56
Speaker 3: back from the dead. Toronto's kind of been at tease,
19:58
Speaker 3: you know, every time you believe in then they fall back.
20:02
Speaker 3: You know, has a bullpen proms, you know, obviously with
20:06
Speaker 3: Jeff Hoffman. So we'll see what happens. I still think
20:09
Speaker 3: Toronto makes the playoffs. Baltimore you know, I think they
20:12
Speaker 3: still fall short. I think ahead they get a lot
20:15
Speaker 3: of prospects too. I think Baltimore they really want to
20:17
Speaker 3: be serious about this. They got to be aggressive and
20:20
Speaker 3: go get a big time pitcher. And I think that's
20:23
Speaker 3: what hurt them in the past couple of years here,
20:26
Speaker 3: where they haven't got that marquee starter to kind of
20:29
Speaker 3: lean their way. They've kind of been Nicholae Diamond and
20:32
Speaker 3: getting guys in the cheap. So but I do believe
20:35
Speaker 3: Toronto gets in there. And I think for Toronto, I
20:38
Speaker 3: think it'd be a you know, massive, massive disappointment for
20:40
Speaker 3: them not to even get the postseason, particularly when they were,
20:43
Speaker 3: you know, two outs away from winning it all a
20:46
Speaker 3: year ago.
20:47
Speaker 2: Bob La finished with this debate.
20:49
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about it in the segment right
20:51
Speaker 1: after on YouTube. Christopher Sanchez or the miss for a
20:56
Speaker 1: Picture of the Month in May. Usually, you know, we
20:58
Speaker 1: don't make a lot out of pitcher in the of
21:01
Speaker 1: the Month award, But let's say you were a cy
21:03
Speaker 1: young voter for just the month of May in the
21:05
Speaker 1: National League, who would you vote for?
21:08
Speaker 3: I would do a little more old school, I would
21:11
Speaker 3: I would I would go Sanchez just the fact that
21:14
Speaker 3: he's got, you know, on the record, actually you know,
21:16
Speaker 3: for a left handed starter, you know on the most
21:19
Speaker 3: you know, shutout innings. You know, ever go on that
21:23
Speaker 3: and I know, you know, MSSUS stats are dazzling with
21:26
Speaker 3: the strikeouts and all that, and whip right, I would
21:29
Speaker 3: go Sanchez if I was a cy Young voter, just
21:32
Speaker 3: on that month. I bet there's gonna be a cop out.
21:35
Speaker 3: I bet it's gonna be co Co pitchers the month.
21:38
Speaker 3: I bet the league does not pick one over the other.
21:41
Speaker 4: It's just too close.
21:43
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I don't think they're going to
21:45
Speaker 2: make good decision there. I wish they would, but I
21:47
Speaker 2: don't think they will.
21:48
Speaker 1: And we just were showing that the season numbers, they're
21:51
Speaker 1: both very firmly in the cy Young race with Otani
21:53
Speaker 1: and others. Bob, good stuff. Great to catch up with you.
21:56
Speaker 1: We'll be talking a lot more as we lead up
21:58
Speaker 1: to the trade deadline.
22:00
Speaker 4: All right, my pleasure, Take care guys.
22:01
Speaker 2: Good thanks you too.
22:06
Speaker 1: Hey, let's talk to MLB dot Com and Drive Lines
22:09
Speaker 1: Travis Satchek right now. Travis, great to have you on
22:11
Speaker 1: the show to dig into some numbers here, and you know,
22:13
Speaker 1: one of the reasons we wanted to bring you on
22:16
Speaker 1: was and we reached out to you and we love
22:18
Speaker 1: having you on about Fernando Tatis Junior, and we're like, mechanically,
22:22
Speaker 1: what do we have here? What's going on now? Perfect timing?
22:26
Speaker 1: He hits a four hundred and fifty two foot blast
22:28
Speaker 1: over the weekend from a Foster Griffin fastball head and
22:31
Speaker 1: middle in. But the question still applies, you know, what
22:35
Speaker 1: kind of homework did you do on Tatis and what
22:37
Speaker 1: have you seen for him in terms of the lack
22:39
Speaker 1: of power so far?
22:41
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's wild.
22:42
Speaker 9: I'm not sure there's been a home run drought, Like
22:45
Speaker 9: there's some baseball history for a player that's talented, and
22:48
Speaker 9: you look at his underlying numbers and he's he has
22:51
Speaker 9: the best bat speed he's had since stack cast was
22:54
Speaker 9: tracking it.
22:55
Speaker 8: It's hard to hit.
22:56
Speaker 9: Rate is a lade, and he has this unfathomable hormundrout.
23:00
Speaker 9: So the big things just digging in ductive contact is
23:06
Speaker 9: much different than previous years.
23:08
Speaker 8: His attack angle has gone.
23:10
Speaker 9: The opposite way you would want if you're trying to
23:12
Speaker 9: do damage in the air and he's closed off his stands.
23:15
Speaker 9: It's almost like he's been trying to go to the
23:16
Speaker 9: opposite field for some reason. It doesn't really make a
23:20
Speaker 9: lot of sense for a player with his ability, he
23:22
Speaker 9: should want to get the ball in the air and
23:24
Speaker 9: ideally to his pool side. So yeah, I don't know
23:27
Speaker 9: if it is. I would love to speak to him
23:30
Speaker 9: directly about this. What is the plan where you guys
23:32
Speaker 9: are doing, Because it doesn't to optimize elite batspeed, the
23:36
Speaker 9: elite hard to hit rate all that. It's almost like
23:39
Speaker 9: he's working against trying to optimize bad at ball contact.
23:42
Speaker 9: So it doesn't make a lot of I mean, there's
23:46
Speaker 9: some sort of It doesn't seem like would be an
23:49
Speaker 9: injury because all his underlying stuff is really elite. So
23:52
Speaker 9: I will say over the last ten days he's opened
23:54
Speaker 9: up his stands a little bit. Maybe he's making some
23:56
Speaker 9: sort of adjustments. But yeah, this is a player who
24:00
Speaker 9: should be a forty home run threat and he has
24:01
Speaker 9: one home run third or through the season. So it's
24:04
Speaker 9: a it's a great mystery why he would change his approach.
24:07
Speaker 9: Why does he seem to be wanting to go the
24:09
Speaker 9: other way. It's a it's a great mystery to me.
24:13
Speaker 5: Yeah, you talked about all the kind of underlying metrics,
24:15
Speaker 5: the bat speed.
24:16
Speaker 7: He's hitting the ball hard.
24:17
Speaker 5: Like if he wasn't hitting the ball hard, you could say, hey,
24:20
Speaker 5: he doesn't deserve to hit home runs, but I think
24:21
Speaker 5: he has one of the top hard hit percentages in baseball.
24:24
Speaker 5: If you're his hitting coach, what sort of fix do
24:27
Speaker 5: you make. Is it more about his attack angle? Is
24:29
Speaker 5: it about him catching the ball a little further on
24:32
Speaker 5: from what would kind of be the advice you would.
24:33
Speaker 7: Give him if you were his hitting coach.
24:37
Speaker 9: Yeah, talking to some of the hitting guys that drive
24:39
Speaker 9: line for them, it's really as you mentioned, contact point, like,
24:44
Speaker 9: the contact point is deeper. It's almost like he's adopting
24:48
Speaker 9: a Derek Jeter other way approach, which you know that
24:51
Speaker 9: that led to a Hall of Fame trajectory too. But
24:54
Speaker 9: for tatists, you want it. With his bat speed ninetieth percentile,
24:57
Speaker 9: he should be trying to catch the ball out in
24:59
Speaker 9: front and getting involved in the air the other to
25:04
Speaker 9: his full side, and his ground ball rate his way up.
25:07
Speaker 8: His pull rate is way down.
25:08
Speaker 9: These are just you know, those are indicators of a
25:10
Speaker 9: contact point issue, whether that's intentional, whether there's some sort
25:14
Speaker 9: of mechanical flies having trouble dealing with You know, I
25:18
Speaker 9: can't say we're sure without sitting down and speaking with him.
25:21
Speaker 9: But yeah, I think to your point, contact point is
25:23
Speaker 9: the big thing that really jumps out that could correct
25:25
Speaker 9: a lot of this.
25:27
Speaker 6: Okay, another home run hit or not hitting home runs
25:30
Speaker 6: Vlad Guerrero Junior.
25:32
Speaker 2: I mean.
25:34
Speaker 6: I gotta ask, like we talk about the swing path.
25:37
Speaker 6: I think at this point in each of their careers,
25:39
Speaker 6: Tattis and Vlad, you can't really change your swing. I
25:43
Speaker 6: mean one thing you can change his mindset swinging at
25:46
Speaker 6: pitches in the zone looking for a pitch you like,
25:49
Speaker 6: can't what you can control. Control what you can control
25:52
Speaker 6: in this game. And he might have a season lowing
25:55
Speaker 6: home runs. Talk a little about him and what's going
25:58
Speaker 6: on with this guy.
26:00
Speaker 9: Yeah, he's I mean, he's had home run droughts before.
26:02
Speaker 9: I don't know that they've ever he's I don't think
26:05
Speaker 9: he's begun a season like this, so that that highlights it.
26:08
Speaker 8: But he's always been more.
26:09
Speaker 9: Of a ground ball, line drive oriented hitter. It's just
26:13
Speaker 9: his home run to fly ball rates. Just looking it
26:15
Speaker 9: up now, it's five percent, which is you know, he's
26:17
Speaker 9: never been below fourteen percent for a full season. So
26:21
Speaker 9: that that could just be an outlier some more fortune
26:23
Speaker 9: on balls he is putting in play his ground ball
26:26
Speaker 9: rates up a little bit. To your point, Todd, I
26:28
Speaker 9: don't think he's probably made any big swing path adjustments.
26:32
Speaker 9: That's what's so unusual at Tattoos. He he has made
26:35
Speaker 9: a swing path change, which is strange, where Guerrero has
26:38
Speaker 9: always been a little more line drive ground ball oriented.
26:41
Speaker 9: So I bet he has had a stretch like this before,
26:45
Speaker 9: but it just hasn't begun a season.
26:46
Speaker 8: Still, I would rest the season.
26:49
Speaker 9: He can hit another twenty home runs, probably if he
26:52
Speaker 9: gets at home run fly ball rate back in line
26:55
Speaker 9: with his career norms.
26:56
Speaker 8: But yeah, it's not what you.
26:58
Speaker 9: Want from a a player who you know is signed
27:02
Speaker 9: to a half a billion dollar contract. Home runs are
27:05
Speaker 9: what you want out of this guy in addition to
27:06
Speaker 9: the other batted ball goodness.
27:08
Speaker 8: So Tatias just seemed like.
27:10
Speaker 9: More of a a swing path change, which is really unusual.
27:13
Speaker 9: I think Guerrero is more of a poor fortune kind
27:18
Speaker 9: of random nature of baseball issue.
27:22
Speaker 5: Travis, tell me a little bit about the miss. Is
27:24
Speaker 5: he a unicorn or is this something that we feel like,
27:27
Speaker 5: is we're trending towards seeing starting pitching starting pitchers being
27:32
Speaker 5: able to sit in at one hundred miles an hour
27:34
Speaker 5: to top out at one oh three point four.
27:38
Speaker 7: Is he an outlier or is the game trending in
27:40
Speaker 7: a direction to a place we've never seen before?
27:44
Speaker 8: Yeah, it is. It is crazy.
27:45
Speaker 9: I mean, he's throwing a ninety four mile hour slider,
27:48
Speaker 9: which is just you know, wild, it's almost it's a
27:51
Speaker 9: little peaked to gram like, what is how He's just
27:53
Speaker 9: dominating people. The question is can elite Unfortunately, can elite
27:58
Speaker 9: velocity arms like this hold up over a long long
28:01
Speaker 9: period of time, large sample, So that's the real question.
28:04
Speaker 9: But if he maintains this, he is you know, he's
28:07
Speaker 9: unhittable in any given start. And we are seeing velocity trends,
28:12
Speaker 9: of course, increase over time. Even looking the the velocities
28:15
Speaker 9: in the in the CUAA regional tournament. They the young players,
28:20
Speaker 9: the amateurs coming up, they keep improving skill levels, they
28:23
Speaker 9: keep going harder. They know the incentive to reach pro
28:25
Speaker 9: ball is velocity. That's what teams are hunting. And it's
28:29
Speaker 9: not just what's interesting is it's not just the average
28:32
Speaker 9: is increasing every year in the pitch tracking era, for
28:35
Speaker 9: the most part. But it's the minimum. I've I've looked
28:38
Speaker 9: at pictures year over your maxim minimum fastball velocities, and
28:42
Speaker 9: it's the floor. They're minimums that have risen so much
28:45
Speaker 9: faster than their maximum v lows. So it suggests there
28:48
Speaker 9: is more max effort throwing. There is more maybe mechanical
28:52
Speaker 9: efficiency too, but there is more more stress too. But
28:55
Speaker 9: there's a reason teams players are hunting hunting velocity, and
29:00
Speaker 9: that's because it's the performance. There's performance declines when you
29:03
Speaker 9: throw harder, it's just the bottom line. And there's more
29:06
Speaker 9: spin rate with a faster arm too, so you have
29:08
Speaker 9: better breaking stuff, more movements, So all the incentives aligned
29:12
Speaker 9: to throwing faster. All the performance regimens are designed to
29:16
Speaker 9: create better stuff. So mis is you know, he has
29:20
Speaker 9: the best stuff of any started picture right now, so
29:22
Speaker 9: he is an outlier. But the overall games trend is
29:24
Speaker 9: to have more and more arms like this. I mean,
29:27
Speaker 9: the average height handed fastball is ninety five miles an hour,
29:29
Speaker 9: So I'm old enough to remember when ninety five was
29:33
Speaker 9: like would get your attention on a telecast a game,
29:35
Speaker 9: But now it's just the average oid hander throw is
29:38
Speaker 9: ninety five which is pretty wild mechanics.
29:41
Speaker 5: Oh sorry, with the Miz and you mentioned Jacob du Grom,
29:47
Speaker 5: and I know eventually Jacob du Grom broke down. But
29:50
Speaker 5: do you see a lot of similarities in the Miz
29:52
Speaker 5: in terms is it just a fast arm, is it
29:53
Speaker 5: a big body?
29:54
Speaker 6: Where?
29:54
Speaker 7: Does he have very good efficient mechanics as well?
30:00
Speaker 9: Yeah, certainly he also has I think some sort of
30:03
Speaker 9: deception to him. He's a bit lanky, a bit uh doesn't.
30:07
Speaker 9: He has an unusual picture build to some extent, so
30:09
Speaker 9: I think that might give him some deception. I think
30:12
Speaker 9: the Krahm was always renowned for great mechanics, and unfortunately
30:16
Speaker 9: that injury hiccup a few years ago, but he uh.
30:20
Speaker 9: For the most part, I think the Grahm's efficiency allowed
30:22
Speaker 9: him to produce could be a Hall of Fame career debatable,
30:27
Speaker 9: but ms, I think we're seeing excellent mechanics too. To
30:31
Speaker 9: be able to repeat this to average hundred miles hour
30:34
Speaker 9: with the fastball to steep into a season, you have
30:36
Speaker 9: to have pretty good mechanical efficiency without breaking down, and
30:41
Speaker 9: I do think we're seeing some pictures be able to
30:46
Speaker 9: It's not just a max effort thing. If you can
30:47
Speaker 9: approve your mechanical efficiency, you can pitch your ceiling more
30:51
Speaker 9: often too, So I think that, in addition to Moore,
30:53
Speaker 9: the max effort allows for this as well. And you know,
30:56
Speaker 9: we have all sorts of teams of put some jump
31:00
Speaker 9: as to some performance science player development, and there's outside
31:04
Speaker 9: facodies like drive line that are pushing the R and
31:06
Speaker 9: D forward. So it makes sense we're seeing these performance
31:09
Speaker 9: gains throughout the game.
31:13
Speaker 6: Yeah. No, I was going to go along those lines
31:14
Speaker 6: too as well. You see all these young kids coming up.
31:17
Speaker 6: The bottom line is you take a guy throwing eighty
31:19
Speaker 6: eight to ninety he's young, coming up out of high school,
31:23
Speaker 6: going into college. Next thing, you know, four years later,
31:25
Speaker 6: he's at ninety four to ninety six. Like, I just
31:27
Speaker 6: find that absolutely amazing how that can happen, and how
31:30
Speaker 6: kids can link them and throw balls with movement to
31:33
Speaker 6: make them throw harder. I just it still boggles my
31:36
Speaker 6: mind how this happens and how new of age this
31:39
Speaker 6: is in all of baseball.
31:41
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's pretty wild.
31:43
Speaker 9: I mean I think it starts with kind of borrowing
31:46
Speaker 9: from some of the longtime Olympic sport training methods and
31:50
Speaker 9: constrained training and some of the.
31:53
Speaker 8: Some performance signs.
31:54
Speaker 9: It suggisted a long time, finally made its way to
31:55
Speaker 9: baseball and it works. So we can debate the merits
32:00
Speaker 9: of it, but it does push performance up. It makes
32:03
Speaker 9: it a lot harder to hit. And you know, I
32:06
Speaker 9: hear folks say, well, pitch more like Greg Maddox. Well,
32:09
Speaker 9: we've looked at a Greg. We did a piece for
32:11
Speaker 9: drive Line where we scouted pen Greg Maddox starts ones
32:15
Speaker 9: that we could find on YouTube. And the problem with
32:18
Speaker 9: advising people to pitch like Greg Maddox is we estimate it.
32:21
Speaker 9: His command is for standard deviations better than the norm.
32:24
Speaker 9: So if you want to get away with throwing ninety
32:26
Speaker 9: miles an hour, you just have to have outlier ability
32:29
Speaker 9: and other areas in Major League Baseball, and Maddox's stuff
32:32
Speaker 9: is pretty good too, so he's a real outlier. So yeah,
32:36
Speaker 9: it would be great if everyone had a leap command
32:38
Speaker 9: and didn't have to push the limits of velocity. But
32:42
Speaker 9: those are outlier unicorn and pipe skills too, and that's
32:45
Speaker 9: why we're seeing just this overall push for velocity and
32:48
Speaker 9: why here in Cleveland the Guardians have done a good
32:51
Speaker 9: job with drafting more emphasizing strike throwing college arms and
32:56
Speaker 9: then adding velocity to them through these programs within their system.
33:00
Speaker 9: Shane Bieber is a good example of that. Savali Tanner,
33:04
Speaker 9: Biby come through the system, so teams think they can
33:07
Speaker 9: can add this too when they get their hands on them,
33:10
Speaker 9: in addition to all the great college programs and skills
33:13
Speaker 9: being built there.
33:14
Speaker 1: Oh yes, I've done deeper around to the draft where
33:17
Speaker 1: I've posted, and you're like, here's another pitchability guy in
33:20
Speaker 1: the college ranks for the Guardians. He throws ninety three
33:23
Speaker 1: or four, and all of a sudden, now he's throwing
33:25
Speaker 1: ninety six or seven and he's really good.
33:27
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. It's working for him. Travis.
33:30
Speaker 1: Great to catch up with you. More articles from Travis
33:32
Speaker 1: on Driveline on MLB dot com. Appreciate the time and
33:34
Speaker 1: we'll catch up again soon.
33:35
Speaker 8: Thanks fellows, great chatting.
33:37
Speaker 2: Thank you,