Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Government Shutdown Countdown🔥Crypto Market Update

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Government Shutdown Countdown🔥Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Shut down countdown is underway. We'll dive into that for
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: you guys today. Welcome back into the show. Let's get started.
• 0:05
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• 0:34
  Speaker 1: make your first trade and get started. Let's go over
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: to a couple of points around the government shutdown. US
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: government shutdown in by October. First, if you look at
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the dates right here, skyrocketing here the last few days
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: now up to seventy three percent, and if you look
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: at it in comparison to the year, very high at
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: eighty percent. So it's most likely going to happen. The
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: real question is how do the markets respond to this
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as we see a government shutdown start to take place.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: One thing you got to look at is how does
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: this respond based on poles. We put one out out
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: there and this is a polymarket poll showing sixty five
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: percent chance. Now it's way above that. But the real
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: question if it does happen, where will bitcoin be and
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: how will the market be impacted? And everybody saying we're
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: going to crash the hunter k, No, not going to happen.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Low's in from here. No, not going to happen. Instead,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: it's a nothing burger. So fifty three percent saying this
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: is not going to have any impact on the market whatsoever.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: If that's what you guys believe, let me know down
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: in the comments. Let me go to a clip real quick.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: This is Senator Warren saying, well, maybe this time is
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit different. Take a look.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump not only has done nothing, he's seen the
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: cost go up. I think this is the place to
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: throw down and have that fight.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: To some people, seems like a stupid idea.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: You've got to get some wins, then, damn we need that.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: We need all forty seven of them absolutely at full
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: pedal to the metal, and we need to get them
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: into these fights. TikTok. We are running out of time.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: You believe the Republicans will blink and Trump will sign
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: a bill that undoes these cuts.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: So, yes, this is a righteous fight. This is the
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: fight to have. It's a fight that people can understand,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: and it's a fight that touches every single person in
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: this country.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: And you feel like there's forty three of your colleagues
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: that aren't going to squish.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: I do.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: I do.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I think Senator Warren is finally in a position where
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: she's delusionary, because I don't think that's going to be case.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I think we are going to see the Democrats fold
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: to this. There's too much at stake. I think this
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: is going to happen, whether it's a short shutdown or
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: none at all. That's the real question. I think going forward,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: other things that are happening. The BLS announced that will
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: not be releasing economic data, including Friday's jobs report, which
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: is an important one the case of a US government shutdown.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know if this will affect anything other than
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I already know that our jobs data is going to
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: come in crappy, and if it comes in even moderately
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: expected or hot, I won't believe the data anyway, because
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: I'm still not in believing the BLS data is accurate.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So that's just something that I'm continuing to watch because
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: there's always revisions within this. The odds of US government
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: shutdowns obviously rising the S and P five hundred and
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: crypto dump right before THESEUS shutdowns, and of course it
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: could be the cause for a little bit of volatility
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: this week. I don't know. I'm still a little bit
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: in the sense that if there is First of all,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I think if it folds, if the Democrats fold, then
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: there's I don't think the market really cares even if
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: there is a shutdown. As long as it's short, I
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: think that's okay. And I'm saying less than a week.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: If it goes outside of a week, I think that's
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: when markets will probably start perking up and going, wait
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: a minute, this is not necessarily the case.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Let's go on to another thing in that, of course,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: is potential tariffs. Here's Trump saying that he's going to
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: be imposing substantial tariffs on any country that does not
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: make its furniture in the US. So that's another factor
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: playing into this. There's a lot of companies that do
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  Speaker 1: not use the United States for furniture manufacturing, I know
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: some of the biggest retailers are still exporting and importing
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: from other countries out there, so this could actually have
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a bearing on furniture cost here
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: in the near future. Another thing he hits on, which
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: is kind of weird, Trump is imposing one hundred percent
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: of tariff on any movies made outside of the US.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So I guess it's pretty much all movies because almost
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: all movies are made out outside of the United States,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: so this is a factor. I don't I'm not sure
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: he understands the entertainment business in that point, even though
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: he's been in the entertainment business a lot. Maybe again,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: it's just a posturing thing. You never know what Trump
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: on how much is actually going to be real in
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: terms of some of these tariffs going forward. Another thing
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I want to take a look at is the global
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: pivot around world central banks, because this is all about
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: rate cuts. We've already seen one hundred and sixty eight
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: cuts over the last twelve months, and now we actually
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: have the FED coming to the party, and we got
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: a first cut on twenty five BIPs and looks like
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: we could see three up to three more in a
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  Speaker 1: very short order. Here going into the first of the year,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: so this could be very good for the market in general.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And I think as we start to see the position
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: of jobs as well as the inflation numbers starts to
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: play into this. That's the real question is if whether
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: or not we have reached stagflation. Another thing within the
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: article here. A shutdown will likely slow down progress on
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: crypto market structure. We already have talked about that before.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: This will slow down the market structure bill, most likely
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: to push it well into December, if not maybe even
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: early next year. Plan mark up hearing for the Senate
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Banking Committee draft bill was pushed from its tentative date
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: of this week now to late October. So and again
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: this will be interesting because remember we have the FOMC,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the next FED meeting that is going to be occurring
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: at the end of October, So timing is interesting here
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: across the market, if you look at the fear and greed,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: let me zoom in on that for you guys. Right now,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: it's coming up a little bit from that bottom at
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: thirty two back to thirty nine. So we're still kind
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of in a not quite neutral yet, but definitely starting
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: to climb out. As Bitcoin starts to move out over
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: a weekend that was a little bit more bullish. The
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: SEC is also facing October deadlines on sixteen different crypto
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: ETF decisions. This is going to happen, guys. We're going
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: to see a slew of crypto ETFs hit in October
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: and then even Eric Balshounis mentioned this earlier on one
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: of his tweets, is that we could see one hundred
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  Speaker 1: plus crypto ETFs in very short order over the next
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: few months. So watch out for crypto in terms of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: ETFs and the number of potential opportunities that could play
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: into this October November and Pump Simber is the crypto
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  Speaker 1: cycle back. Everybody is looking at this right now because
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  Speaker 1: it starts to get into a lot of the historical
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: patterns of crypto and how they might repeat. I know
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: you guys have seen this a million times. Oh, Paul,
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  Speaker 1: that's the same chart, blah blah blah. Here's the point.
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  Speaker 1: There is a lot of interesting similarities here. And I
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: don't believe in cycles, so I look at liquidity in
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  Speaker 1: the market and what are the macro environments. Ironically, liquidity
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: in the market and macro environments are all looming into
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  Speaker 1: an up segment in this next few months and possibly
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: into the first quarter of next year. The real question
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: will be how does the post Q one look like
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Let me know in the comments
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: what you guys think this does in terms of playing out.
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  Speaker 1: Does this go Q one, Q two or all of
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in terms of this bull run? Let
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: me know down below. All right, let me go to
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: a couple of points. I want to get into some
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: clips here because this one is a good one. It's
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the black Rock Cio. He's talking about the areas that
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  Speaker 1: could would be very active as we start to see
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: this market play out. Take a look.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so I was very careful to use the word
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: pockets because I don't think that applies to the whole market.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: But I do see a market where, you know, as
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: I've discussed, the nature of the participants has changed. Fewer
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: fundamental investors, more high frequency traders, more retail investors. I
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: think that helps fuel maybe some of those pockets.
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  Speaker 3: The debate that we've had around this table a few
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  Speaker 3: times over the last month or so is whether it's
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: the mid nineties or the late nineties. I think we've
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: got a while school so whether that's even an appropriate
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: benchmark to think about stock markets in twenty twenty five,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: How are you thinking about those things?
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  Speaker 4: Yes, so I think about it differently, which is I
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: think about it in terms of is it a good
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: market to be a stock picker? And I hear some
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: people complain about some of these pockets irrationality, But to
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: be a good stock picker, you actually need miss pricings, right,
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  Speaker 4: And so I really like a market where I see
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: the pockets of miss pricings. And in terms of the
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: market overall, I think we're on much sounder footing than
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  Speaker 4: we were in the late nineties.
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  Speaker 1: Interesting, I would agree with that in the sense I
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: think there's been some mispicks in general, and I would
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: say that I think we're on better fundamental ground than
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: we were in the mid nineties. I was around in
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the mid nineties and I got a chance to see
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: that front row Saint, and I would agree. Versus what
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: we're seeing right now, there is not as much exuberance
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: in the market, at least right now. That could change
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: in ninety days very quickly in this market, just because
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: of the access to all these new instruments and tactics
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: that are being played out in the investing market. Speaking
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: of that, Kathy Wood comes in and says, here's her
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: investment thesis when it comes to Bitcoin versus eth Take
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: Bitcoin, as I mentioned, is the global monetary system. That
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: alone is a very big idea. It is also a technology.
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: So layer one blockchain technology never been hacked. The other
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: blockchains cannot say that, right, and so that's why the
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: monetary system is based on it. I do think that
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: Ethereum is playing a very important role in the DeFi ecosystem.
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: A lot of the fees are going to the layer twos.
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: They get a disproportionate amount of the fees. Now, the
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: question is are there going to be so many layer
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: twos out there that they're going to start competing against
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: one another and confer more importance to the layer one.
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: That is a possibility, and that is why we're invested
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: in ether and we do think it powers the DeFi world.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: You know, I like Kathy and I definitely appreciate all
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: of what she's saying there. I don't necessarily I don't
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: know that it's a win, you know, one versus the other.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: What I will say is that Ethereum just has too
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: many you know, irons in the fire. If you look
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: at what's happening was the stable coin market. You look
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: at the token IS stocks, you look at Token I securities,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: you look at RWA's. All of that is leaning intothereum,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: not necessarily within the bitcoin ecosystem. Now, sure bitcoin is
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: going to continue to be a store of value and
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: it will continue to be a speculative asset. Now does
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: that grow when you are in the midst of a market,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I would say renaissance With the capacity of what eth
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: could do in just the next few years, that's where
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little different. I wish she would
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: have went more in the direction of ethereum on that
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: because I think that's the bigger side playing into this.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Speaking of that USDC lending on coinbase, this is just
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: almost a throwaway topic, but it's actually showing what I
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: think could be the very beginning of something maybe bigger
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: than any in terms of crypto, and that is going
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to be the credit market that plays into this. USD
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: supply started to skyrocket over here on Morpho, and the
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: reason is is because Morpho is starting to offer both
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: lend and borrow. This I think starts to move into
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: a new market structure of how credit is going to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: be managed in the future. It's going to be on
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the blockchain, and it's going to be in a lot
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of these assets, whether it's on Bitcoin, ethereum, et cetera.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: But it's all going to be happening within guess what
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: stable coins. Stable coins of course, which are tied to
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: ERC twenty. And this is another factor right here, it's
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the one to one hundred moment for vaults. It's here.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: This is another factor that will play into this, and
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: that is V two vaults on Morpho, a new open
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: source standard. This is course is going to be another
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: big adoption opportunity. So again live on ethereum. Those are
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: big points that people are overlooking because we haven't seen
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: these markets take off yet. When these markets take off,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: they are not markets like NFT markets, and to a
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: certain extent, you know these small micro markets that explode
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and then retray. Know, these are infrastructure markets that I
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: think lend very positively to ETH as a whole. I
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: think the core system of how finance is going to
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: be managed, it's going to be managed most likely in
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: ETH and a handful of other projects that are out there,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: you know them if you haven't watched our show enough,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: you should make sure, and of course jump into the
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Diamond Circle. You guys can do that for absolutely free,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: and it's our place where you guys can get additional
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: content from us. I put out a Barron Market Edge
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: over there, an email that comes out to you talks
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: about my market position, where I think the market is going.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Check into that, and of course follow me out there
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: on X at Paul Baron. We'll get you next time
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: right here on the Paul Baron Show