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The Favorites - AFC South Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by about three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:22
Speaker 1: That's right, longtime listeners, you heard that right. We are
0:25
Speaker 1: part of the Volume Podcast Network. Again. I will explain
0:31
Speaker 1: it all right after I introduce my co host, my companion,
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0:41
Speaker 2: So I'm in Hello Chad. So listen.
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Speaker 1: For people who have been listening to the show for
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1:46
Speaker 1: to the show. I am Chad Milman. I am Chief
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Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. We are a media
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Speaker 1: business that focuses entirely on serving the needs of sports betters.
1:57
Speaker 1: Our greatest season is during the NFL for the next
2:01
Speaker 1: six weeks. Simon Hunter, who is a professional better who
2:04
Speaker 1: has been my co host on this show for the
2:07
Speaker 1: past several years. It has made it the number one
2:10
Speaker 1: sports betting podcast in America. Once football season starts. For
2:18
Speaker 1: the next six weeks, Simon and I are going to
2:21
Speaker 1: break down every division in the NFL. We're talking about sides.
2:26
Speaker 1: We're talking I mean, we're talking about win totals. We're
2:29
Speaker 1: talking about division odds. We're talking about Super Bowl odds.
2:32
Speaker 1: We're talking about why we like the teams we like,
2:34
Speaker 1: our expectations for these teams for the year, where the
2:37
Speaker 1: market has it right, where the market has it wrong,
2:39
Speaker 1: what we think the advantages are, Where we think you
2:42
Speaker 1: should stay away during the season. The format for the
2:44
Speaker 1: show has always been. On Tuesdays, Simon and I break
2:49
Speaker 1: down the entire slate start talking about our leans. On Thursday,
2:54
Speaker 1: we nail our five favorite picks that we will put
2:57
Speaker 1: into our free to play one hundred thousand dollars Pick
3:02
Speaker 1: them contest that everybody can enter. Last ye year we
3:06
Speaker 1: had twelve thousand people sign up for this contest. Everybody
3:10
Speaker 1: gets to compete against me and Simon. We put our
3:15
Speaker 1: five favorite picks into the contest, and then Sunday Nights,
3:19
Speaker 1: after the late afternoon games end, but before the Sunday
3:23
Speaker 1: night football game begins, we break down what has gone
3:27
Speaker 1: on during the day, our heartbreaks, our triumphs. We are
3:31
Speaker 1: in it with all of you throughout the entire season.
3:35
Speaker 1: It's a fabulous season. And for our regular listeners, guess
3:39
Speaker 1: what we did it? We have reached division preview season.
3:44
Speaker 1: I am joined today by Simon here in my home
3:47
Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Sadly, none of the tech was working and
3:51
Speaker 1: while we were face to face a mirror moments ago,
3:54
Speaker 1: Simon is now locked in our guest bedroom where I'm
3:57
Speaker 1: going to hold him hostage for the rest of the season.
4:00
Speaker 1: Over the course of the upcoming previews, we will be
4:04
Speaker 1: joined by some big guests this week, just me and
4:08
Speaker 1: Simon Solo. First up, we are discussing the AFC South.
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5:27
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, enough with the pre limbs. Last season,
5:33
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans and CJ. Stroud were the surprise team,
5:36
Speaker 1: the surprise player of all the NFL season. The Jags
5:42
Speaker 1: were the team everybody was banking on. They were eight
5:45
Speaker 1: and three. Trevor Lawrence gets injured, they creator. The Texans
5:49
Speaker 1: come on strong. They take the division. CJ. Stroud as
5:53
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year for offense, Will Anderson is DPOY
5:56
Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year. All of a sudden, everyone
6:01
Speaker 1: freaking loves the Texans. When we set this up, some
6:05
Speaker 1: of the things that I just want people to know,
6:06
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be done talking after this, some of
6:09
Speaker 1: the most important things from a betting perspective, And I
6:12
Speaker 1: know Simon will tell you this, looking at the offensive
6:15
Speaker 1: line and the defensive line when he is thinking about
6:17
Speaker 1: betting is going inside out. So we will talk about
6:20
Speaker 1: the rankings for offensive and defensive line for every team
6:24
Speaker 1: that we talk about, because that's something that gets ignored,
6:26
Speaker 1: but it's paramount for how we look at these teams.
6:30
Speaker 1: Simon the Texans strength the schedule seventh hardest. The way
6:34
Speaker 1: we look at strength to schedule the teams that this
6:38
Speaker 1: team is playing, the total amount of their wins based
6:42
Speaker 1: on season win total projections for twenty twenty four O
6:47
Speaker 1: Line rank twenty second. Laramie Tunsel is amazing. Forty seven
6:51
Speaker 1: sacks allowed, tenth most in the league. D Line tenth
6:57
Speaker 1: feels a little low to me because this edge is
6:59
Speaker 1: stat Will Anderson we talked about he edged out Jalen
7:03
Speaker 1: Carter right at the end of the year for Rookie
7:05
Speaker 1: of the Year. They signed to Neil Hunter from Minnesota.
7:08
Speaker 1: He had sixteen and a half sacks last season. Let's
7:12
Speaker 1: see here, Simon Houston is sixteen to one who win
7:15
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl plus one oh five to win the
7:18
Speaker 1: Division nine and a half wins. Let's roll brother, I'm
7:22
Speaker 1: saying about the Texans.
7:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, Texans are a team in me Chad talked about
7:26
Speaker 3: couple of months ago and that I wanted to fade them.
7:28
Speaker 2: But they've nailed the off season every way.
7:30
Speaker 3: You can imagine. They've attacked a bunch of key positions.
7:32
Speaker 3: They've added guys who we view as big deals, like
7:36
Speaker 3: I mean Diggs. You can say what you want. Diggs
7:38
Speaker 3: did tail off for that team last year. He's in
7:42
Speaker 3: a one year contract deal right now for himself, they
7:45
Speaker 3: literally let him out of his contract, give a one
7:47
Speaker 3: year deal. I mean, Houston, they're doing all they can
7:50
Speaker 3: to maximize this rookie deal. And little did they know
7:54
Speaker 3: that in year two of that rookie deal they would
7:56
Speaker 3: be like, Okay, we can go all in on this.
7:58
Speaker 3: This is the guy, this is the kid. Like it
8:00
Speaker 3: usually takes a year or two to figure that out.
8:02
Speaker 3: They knew after one year just because I mean, I
8:04
Speaker 3: don't CJ's numbers run of me, but I'm almost positive
8:06
Speaker 3: he was twenty six touchdowns and five interceptions.
8:09
Speaker 2: I mean, people, a lot of people ask us about that.
8:12
Speaker 2: You had to like, why do you have him so.
8:13
Speaker 3: Much higher above your view of Jordan Love. Jordan Love
8:17
Speaker 3: got to sit behind Aaron Rodgers for three years and
8:19
Speaker 3: then take over on offense.
8:21
Speaker 2: None of that for CJ.
8:22
Speaker 3: CJ was in college last year, then thrown to the Wolves,
8:25
Speaker 3: and charge said he won this division. So respective wise,
8:30
Speaker 3: will I be invested in this team?
8:31
Speaker 2: Not really?
8:32
Speaker 3: Like, I just I'm not gonna bet them divisional odds wise,
8:34
Speaker 3: I just don't love the value there for.
8:36
Speaker 2: A team that people are forgetting.
8:38
Speaker 3: The last game of the year, they needed to beat
8:39
Speaker 3: Minshoot to win the division and make the playoffs. Here
8:42
Speaker 3: that wasn't like they dominated and they won in the
8:44
Speaker 3: fourth quarter at the bear end of the game, like
8:46
Speaker 3: it's a team that is really good.
8:48
Speaker 2: They have improved. Chad's gonna talk about their offensive line.
8:52
Speaker 3: It's tough to say what the deals with offense line
8:54
Speaker 3: because last year they had the most injured offensive line
8:57
Speaker 3: in all football and CJ still put up those numbers.
8:59
Speaker 3: I just told you you still only had five interceptions. Like,
9:02
Speaker 3: we've never seen anything like this in my entire life
9:04
Speaker 3: cover in football. We've never seen a rookie do what
9:07
Speaker 3: CJ did last year. So I'll talk to professionals. They're
9:11
Speaker 3: banking on regression from CJ. I know some other guys
9:13
Speaker 3: are all in on his Super Bowl bets. They're all
9:15
Speaker 3: in on his MVP futures because second year is a
9:18
Speaker 3: big jump. Like if you're the guy you don't regress
9:21
Speaker 3: second year, you usually take a big jump. I mean
9:23
Speaker 3: Mahomes his first year as a starter, he went MVP
9:26
Speaker 3: the second year Super Bowl champion, Like we've just seen
9:29
Speaker 3: time and time again Joe Burrow second year and made
9:31
Speaker 3: it to a super Bowl, like we see usually these
9:34
Speaker 3: guys the second year they do take that step. So personally,
9:37
Speaker 3: am I gonna invest money fading CJ in this team
9:39
Speaker 3: even though I should? No like Chad's right, I just
9:43
Speaker 3: I don't like it. I don't trust number either. Nine
9:45
Speaker 3: and a half is a bizarre number where it's like,
9:47
Speaker 3: I really want to take that under. I don't know
9:49
Speaker 3: why it's not up to ten ten and a half
9:50
Speaker 3: yet with the all the guys they've.
9:52
Speaker 2: Added, But this is what Vegas does. They're saying, do
9:55
Speaker 2: it again.
9:55
Speaker 3: That's what they're basically saying to people that when I
9:58
Speaker 3: bet Houston when a best cjsay, prove you're not a fluke,
10:01
Speaker 3: because we think you are a fluke.
10:02
Speaker 2: That's why they're giving him this number right now.
10:04
Speaker 3: They're saying, in this division, we don't think it's a
10:06
Speaker 3: slam dunk team like everyone's making them out to be.
10:08
Speaker 3: So really intro perspective about Vegas, where my perspective is
10:13
Speaker 3: this team, I could see them.
10:14
Speaker 2: I mean we could all say we could see CJ
10:16
Speaker 2: playing Mahomes in the AFC Championship game like that. That's
10:19
Speaker 2: a ceiling for them.
10:21
Speaker 3: The floor is he isn't what he was last year.
10:23
Speaker 3: That was just totally fluke. The team does regress. They're
10:27
Speaker 3: an eight to nine team, a nine to eight team,
10:29
Speaker 3: which that's literally what Vegas is telling you the hanging
10:31
Speaker 3: this number at nine and a half.
10:33
Speaker 1: The most interesting thing here is the dynamics of the
10:37
Speaker 1: rookie contract and the Texans realizing, holy shit, we got
10:42
Speaker 1: something so special in this guy, which is why they
10:47
Speaker 1: go out and get Stefan Diggs, who was basically played
10:51
Speaker 1: himself out of two different franchises now, even though he's
10:54
Speaker 1: one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. Right
10:57
Speaker 1: played him, setself out in Minnesota, laid himself out of
11:00
Speaker 1: Buffalo to the point where they were barely using them
11:03
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, when they were a
11:05
Speaker 1: team that felt like they were going on to the
11:07
Speaker 1: super Bowl and that their window was right now meeting
11:11
Speaker 1: last year. Then they got Danielle Hunter, who is just
11:15
Speaker 1: a monster like he has had an incredible two years.
11:19
Speaker 2: They are they give a mercenary contract. Chat.
11:20
Speaker 3: I think they gave him like a two year and
11:22
Speaker 3: then a ton of money. They're like, yeah, I'm here
11:24
Speaker 3: and get this ring us while we got this rookie contract.
11:26
Speaker 1: And I love their theory every time. We will pay
11:30
Speaker 1: you if you prove it and by the way, we'll
11:32
Speaker 1: take the risk, you know what I mean. Like there
11:36
Speaker 1: is a very good chance both of these guys get
11:38
Speaker 1: monster deals in their next go around because they're on
11:42
Speaker 1: such short term deals and can outperform them so easily,
11:46
Speaker 1: and they will. The Texans will have to decide are
11:48
Speaker 1: we going to pay are we not going to pay
11:49
Speaker 1: if someone else is going to be in the market.
11:51
Speaker 1: I like the way either thinking about constructing this team
11:54
Speaker 1: with CJ. Shroud in his rookie deal, but nine and
11:58
Speaker 1: a half is a trap. I'm not going to invest
12:01
Speaker 1: in this team either way. Like sixteen to one feels
12:04
Speaker 1: like the odds are too low, way too low at
12:08
Speaker 1: this point. Like they also, by the way, added Joe Mixon,
12:11
Speaker 1: which we didn't even say. But here's a great stat
12:14
Speaker 1: for those who don't know and are new to the show.
12:17
Speaker 1: Evan abrams Crack researcher runs actions ESPN group piece on
12:22
Speaker 1: the show with us every Tuesday every Thursday with great stats.
12:26
Speaker 1: Has so many fans, here's a true story, so many fans.
12:29
Speaker 1: Evan has that when we've done our live shows, people
12:32
Speaker 1: have shown up with real jerseys NFL jerseys and asked
12:37
Speaker 1: os Evan to sign those NFL jerseys with their favorite
12:43
Speaker 1: stats of their favorite team. Here's a stat from Evan
12:46
Speaker 1: Abrams biggest Super Bowl odds move to twenty to one
12:52
Speaker 1: or shorter year to year since nineteen seventy seven. Houston
12:57
Speaker 1: Texans went from two hundred to one last year to
13:01
Speaker 1: fourteen to one this year. That is the third biggest
13:05
Speaker 1: move since nineteen seventy seven. The biggest three hundred to
13:09
Speaker 1: one was Dallas seventy nine to eighty. They moved from
13:13
Speaker 1: three hundred to one to eight to one, and then
13:15
Speaker 1: in ninety to ninety one Dallas moved from two hundred
13:18
Speaker 1: and fifty to one to twenty to one. By the way,
13:22
Speaker 1: none of those teams were in the Super Bowl. So
13:25
Speaker 1: those are the stakes for the Texans right now. All
13:28
Speaker 1: of which to say, I'm not going to fade this team,
13:31
Speaker 1: but I'm not a buyer on this team.
13:33
Speaker 2: Yeah.
13:33
Speaker 1: Too many unknowns.
13:35
Speaker 3: Don't bet like Chad just broke it down for you.
13:36
Speaker 3: Do not bet those Super Bowl odds like you. When
13:39
Speaker 3: you put into your mind that he could have a
13:41
Speaker 3: path three. He needs to go through Joe Burrow, Josh Allen,
13:44
Speaker 3: then Mahomes or Lamar. There's just too many guys there
13:48
Speaker 3: where it's like.
13:49
Speaker 2: Can't do it.
13:50
Speaker 3: Can take them at fourteen to one on those kind
13:53
Speaker 3: of odds against those kind of guys, right, guys who
13:55
Speaker 3: you can say Lamar has improved it, but I mean
13:58
Speaker 3: there's no doubt Joe Burrow has proven it, no doubt
14:00
Speaker 3: out Obviously Mahomes has proven it. Mean even Josh Allen
14:02
Speaker 3: is only kryptonite is Mahomes. So to me, it's too
14:06
Speaker 3: much love for the new guy to the party, right,
14:08
Speaker 3: It's just people like the new toys, So that's why
14:10
Speaker 3: they're getting all the love. But please don't bet these odds.
14:13
Speaker 3: They've just they've moved too much.
14:16
Speaker 1: Let's transition to the next team here, because we didn't
14:18
Speaker 1: mention in that who you just mentioned the quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence,
14:23
Speaker 1: who until recently was the highest paid quarterback in NFL history.
14:27
Speaker 1: Last year was supposed to be the year that he
14:30
Speaker 1: took that next step with Doug Peterson and he didn't. Right,
14:35
Speaker 1: But remember, and this is what gets forgotten, and this
14:38
Speaker 1: is why betting is so interesting. It's all about recency bias.
14:42
Speaker 1: Don't forget the Jacksonville Jaguars were eight and three. Trevor
14:48
Speaker 1: Lawrence gets hurt, this team creators and the Texans go
14:52
Speaker 1: on to win the division. If this team doesn't get hurt,
14:56
Speaker 1: if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt, we're having different conversations.
15:00
Speaker 1: This is why the challenge for me is betting on
15:02
Speaker 1: the Texans, because the Jaguars could be the team that
15:05
Speaker 1: they were supposed to be throughout the entire year last year.
15:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, we like the Jags.
15:11
Speaker 3: Me and Chad have a special place in our heart
15:13
Speaker 3: with them because they hit a ten to one divisional
15:15
Speaker 3: bet for US two years ago. And we obviously like
15:18
Speaker 3: Doug Peterson, this is the way the team has built
15:19
Speaker 3: as well, Like Chad nailed it. If Trivor didn't get
15:22
Speaker 3: hurt and they didn't just totally tank end of the season.
15:24
Speaker 3: I think they won two games in the final ten weeks.
15:28
Speaker 3: You just those things aren't predictable, right. That's why we
15:32
Speaker 3: say all the time we love this game because it's
15:34
Speaker 3: just random things like that happen.
15:35
Speaker 2: Right, It's a bad of nutrition. Can you last? Right?
15:39
Speaker 2: Can your body hold up?
15:41
Speaker 3: And my big issue right now the Jaguars is the
15:44
Speaker 3: defensive side. Like to me, I have them even when
15:49
Speaker 3: the guys Tennessee's added, I probably have them rated fourth.
15:52
Speaker 2: Team right now this division for defensive side.
15:54
Speaker 3: Now offensively, I don't think Calvin really losing Calvin really
15:58
Speaker 3: that big of a deal. I just don't know how
15:59
Speaker 3: well fit into their system. And I mean, I'm sure
16:02
Speaker 3: you guys have seen in social media people have made
16:04
Speaker 3: clips of his drops which are absolutely brutal. Most other
16:07
Speaker 3: guys are in the professional league are catching those. So
16:10
Speaker 3: Christian Kirk, you assume last year when he went out
16:13
Speaker 3: another guy that Trevor Lawrence is a big safety blanket,
16:15
Speaker 3: it affected him going forward. Once Christian Kirk got hurt,
16:18
Speaker 3: we assume he'll be healthy back in his position.
16:20
Speaker 2: I mean, he's had a good camp so far.
16:22
Speaker 3: So They're another team that I've invested a small amount
16:25
Speaker 3: of their over total.
16:27
Speaker 2: I haven't touched. I haven't touched their Super Bowl outs.
16:29
Speaker 1: Chat.
16:29
Speaker 2: I just once again, we're talking about the AFC.
16:32
Speaker 3: It's just there's a guy up top there that just
16:35
Speaker 3: kind of warrants not me investing long term in some
16:37
Speaker 3: of these teams, especially a Jaguars team, which you know
16:41
Speaker 3: the reason mean you, I think as well really loved
16:43
Speaker 3: him last year was Trevor Lawrence had an incredible comeback
16:47
Speaker 3: against Herbert Right. That come back in a playoffs last
16:50
Speaker 3: year before. Yeah, it was incredible, like people might not
16:53
Speaker 3: remember they were down I believe twenty twenty one points
16:55
Speaker 3: and he came all the way back and won that game.
16:58
Speaker 3: I think now we're starting to realize that might have
17:00
Speaker 3: said more about the Chargers and their last head coach
17:02
Speaker 3: they fired than it did so much about Trevor Lawrence
17:05
Speaker 3: and this Jaguars team.
17:06
Speaker 2: So I'm not leaving them for dead.
17:08
Speaker 3: I still have them graded out above the culture we're
17:10
Speaker 3: about to talk about as the number two team miss division.
17:13
Speaker 3: But the price of their upside, there's other teams I'd
17:16
Speaker 3: rather bet in this division them, so don't. I've taken
17:19
Speaker 3: a little bit on their over have not bet them divisionally,
17:21
Speaker 3: have not bet them future market for Bowl either. So
17:25
Speaker 3: I think Chad's being right about it, though I might
17:27
Speaker 3: have a little bit of recently buyas to it. I
17:29
Speaker 3: just don't think they've done enough defensively to give me
17:32
Speaker 3: faith if they can really stop two other quarterbacks, I
17:35
Speaker 3: have a lot of faith in this division, So yeah,
17:38
Speaker 3: it's all once again, it's I think it's all gonna
17:40
Speaker 3: be put on Trevor Lawrence's shoulders and we can We'll
17:42
Speaker 3: see if you can hold it up right now. He
17:44
Speaker 3: held up one year and the next year he did not,
17:46
Speaker 3: So it's gonna be interesting how this team performs this
17:48
Speaker 3: coming season.
17:49
Speaker 1: Jags are fifty to one to win the Super Bowl.
17:52
Speaker 2: Wow, I didn't know it got that low. They were
17:54
Speaker 2: forty to one, so they've dropped.
17:56
Speaker 1: Lost two seventy five to win the division. Eight and
18:00
Speaker 1: a half is their season win total. So you've got
18:04
Speaker 1: a little bit of a taste on the ISD.
18:06
Speaker 2: Just because I'm at nine and eight.
18:07
Speaker 3: So again, it's not enough of an edge to really
18:09
Speaker 3: make me load up on it, but I do have
18:10
Speaker 3: them at.
18:11
Speaker 2: Nine and eight.
18:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be interesting. Like there's we're going
18:16
Speaker 1: to talk about Indy, who I think is a fascinating team,
18:18
Speaker 1: and if you're looking to invest, that might be the
18:21
Speaker 1: more interesting sort of upside play. The Jags feel like
18:25
Speaker 1: they're priced exactly where they should be, Like they're middle
18:29
Speaker 1: of the road prove it team right now, right now,
18:33
Speaker 1: the bloom is off the roads because they weren't good
18:35
Speaker 1: enough last year, and to be honest, even last year
18:39
Speaker 1: eight and three was a struggle, like they weren't playing great.
18:42
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence hadn't taken that next step that I think
18:45
Speaker 1: a lot of people thought he was going to take.
18:47
Speaker 1: So to go in on this team right now, when
18:50
Speaker 1: all of a sudden we know the Texans are better,
18:53
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like a really wise thing to do. Their
18:56
Speaker 1: strength of schedule is nineteenth, so it's kind of middle
19:01
Speaker 1: of the road, no advantage there. Their offensive line rank
19:05
Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, who we use for their
19:09
Speaker 1: ranking of the Pro Football Focus offensive and defensive line rankings,
19:14
Speaker 1: and their player of grades, and we'll talk a lot
19:16
Speaker 1: about those in the shows in the coming weeks. All
19:19
Speaker 1: we can say about their offensive line a lot of
19:22
Speaker 1: former first round picks who can't keep Trevor Lawrence healthy.
19:27
Speaker 1: They are a middling, underperforming group that has not done
19:33
Speaker 1: its job. And you mentioned the defense right like, everyone
19:36
Speaker 1: knows about now known as Josh Harris Allen, who just
19:40
Speaker 1: signed a massive new contract seventeen and a half sacks
19:44
Speaker 1: last year. They know about Trayvon Walker, who was the
19:48
Speaker 1: number one overall pick taking two years ago, ahead of
19:50
Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson.
19:52
Speaker 2: And we said the time that that was a mistake.
19:55
Speaker 1: At the time, it felt like a mistake. I think
19:56
Speaker 1: it still feels like a mistake. I think like Trayvon Walker,
19:59
Speaker 1: he he got to eleven sacks last year, but it
20:02
Speaker 1: was a very quiet eleven sacks, right like Aiden Hutchinson.
20:06
Speaker 1: You see Aden Hutchinson in a game and you feel
20:09
Speaker 1: like he's making an impact regardless of the overall number,
20:14
Speaker 1: and like his numbers went down in the second half
20:16
Speaker 1: of last year, but that's also because he's being double
20:18
Speaker 1: and triple teamed and teams are running away from him.
20:21
Speaker 1: They're running bootlegs away from him. Quarterbacks know that he's coming,
20:25
Speaker 1: so they're getting the teams are game planning against Aden Hutchinson.
20:29
Speaker 1: They aren't game planning against Trayvon Walker. They're game planning
20:32
Speaker 1: against Josh Haris Allen. So you're Trayvon Walker and you're
20:35
Speaker 1: getting single teamed and nobody is game planning against you.
20:38
Speaker 1: Against you, you should get eleven sacks, like you are
20:42
Speaker 1: underperforming to the next level if you're not getting eleven sacks.
20:46
Speaker 1: They did get some help with Eric Armstead from the Niners,
20:49
Speaker 1: who's great, but their D line rank it's it's a
20:54
Speaker 1: pretty shallow defensive line. So I understand your concerns about
20:58
Speaker 1: the defense.
20:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they have a top five corner as well,
21:00
Speaker 3: but it's just they have a bunch of pieces that
21:02
Speaker 3: are still just missing on that defense.
21:03
Speaker 2: That's their issue.
21:06
Speaker 1: And look, you and I love Doug Peterson, right, Like
21:10
Speaker 1: what Doug Peterson did with the Eagles and Nick Foles
21:14
Speaker 1: and Philly Philly and getting him to the Super Bowl
21:17
Speaker 1: and then winning the Super Bowl, it was one of
21:20
Speaker 1: the biggest bets you've ever won in your life. It
21:23
Speaker 1: was a huge bet the first year that Action had
21:27
Speaker 1: launched that we all talked about. That got us a
21:31
Speaker 1: ton of credibility and audience, so we were super excited
21:33
Speaker 1: about it. We always got a soft spot for Doug Peterson.
21:36
Speaker 1: We kind of expected him to have done more with
21:38
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence.
21:39
Speaker 2: At this point, I agree.
21:44
Speaker 1: Indianapolis' cult Shane Steichen worked some miracles last year. This
21:52
Speaker 1: team sixty five to one to win the Super Bowl,
21:58
Speaker 1: plus three ten to win the division. Season win total
22:03
Speaker 1: eight and a half. We had Anthony Richardson last year
22:08
Speaker 1: for four games, So now we got to ask ourselves.
22:13
Speaker 1: We loved Anthony Richardson as a rookie. I think he
22:16
Speaker 1: in those four games showed a winner's mentality. We loved
22:21
Speaker 1: what he was doing, but also showed that he's fragile
22:25
Speaker 1: because he was hurt frequently until he was out for
22:27
Speaker 1: the season, and he was running a lot and playing
22:30
Speaker 1: physical in the NFL, which is a recipe for a
22:35
Speaker 1: very short career.
22:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I love it.
22:40
Speaker 3: I want to if I'm gonna go big in the
22:42
Speaker 3: future market as someone of the team, I'm not. It's
22:44
Speaker 3: just their upside is so tremendous that this kid can
22:48
Speaker 3: be what we all think he can be, which is
22:50
Speaker 3: Cam Newton two to point oven right, a great athlete
22:53
Speaker 3: with an incredible arm that, yes, is he gonna miss
22:56
Speaker 3: some really easy throws right across the middle saale them
22:59
Speaker 3: over people heads, just like Cam Newton.
23:01
Speaker 2: I do think he will.
23:02
Speaker 3: It's just part of the game with the guys like this,
23:04
Speaker 3: were these big athletes that.
23:05
Speaker 2: Are just raw.
23:06
Speaker 3: I mean last year Chat talked about it. The kid
23:08
Speaker 3: played one year in Florida, got drafted at twenty twenty
23:11
Speaker 3: years old, So when he was a starter last year,
23:14
Speaker 3: I don't know if he had turned twenty one or
23:15
Speaker 3: he still was twenty, but he was just so young,
23:18
Speaker 3: and they made the offense so simple, like the That's
23:22
Speaker 3: why the people are still in love with this guy,
23:23
Speaker 3: because it wasn't just the design runs that were so impressive,
23:27
Speaker 3: it was the design places get him outside the pocket,
23:29
Speaker 3: him on the move. He's actually really accurate on the
23:31
Speaker 3: move outside the pocket, like it's a.
23:33
Speaker 2: Strength of his.
23:34
Speaker 3: We already know he has an incredible deep ball, but
23:36
Speaker 3: now we're mixing in that. To me, their offensive line
23:39
Speaker 3: is one of the best units they've had in I
23:41
Speaker 3: don't know pet since Peyton Manning, so I know Jeff
23:44
Speaker 3: Saturday retired what twelve thirteen years ago. It feels like
23:47
Speaker 3: that was the last time they had this type of
23:49
Speaker 3: rating to me on their offensive line. Okay, now we
23:52
Speaker 3: know we don't have a Jonathan Taylor hold out either,
23:54
Speaker 3: to deal with the whole offseason. He is in camp
23:57
Speaker 3: day one, ready to go. You might not remember it,
24:00
Speaker 3: but he was a top three, top four running back
24:02
Speaker 3: in football.
24:03
Speaker 2: Big deal.
24:04
Speaker 3: Now you have a number one outside of Pittman. That's
24:06
Speaker 3: a big deal. I have a guy outside. They have
24:08
Speaker 3: a couple of guys upcoming to wide receivers that are
24:10
Speaker 3: really talented as well. You put that all together, that
24:13
Speaker 3: again we talk about the year two step. That's what
24:15
Speaker 3: I'm banking on here, Anthony Richardson. I'm betting on him
24:18
Speaker 3: to make that year two jump. If he doesn't, me
24:21
Speaker 3: and Chad will never view him the same, right, we
24:23
Speaker 3: won't next year. I won't be here trying to make
24:25
Speaker 3: excuses for him blowing smoke up you guys. It's just
24:27
Speaker 3: like no people are right. Chad said it. The guy
24:29
Speaker 3: can't take hits. Last year he only gave us eight games.
24:32
Speaker 3: I'm not putting more money on this kid the following
24:34
Speaker 3: year because last year I view as a flukey injury.
24:37
Speaker 3: Like guys are gonna get hit, right, I mean, that's
24:39
Speaker 3: just part of the deal, whether you're a runner or not.
24:41
Speaker 3: Even the player he got injured on it truly wasn't
24:44
Speaker 3: as if he was like going looking for the contact, right.
24:47
Speaker 3: I just think he fell wrong in the guy and
24:49
Speaker 3: hit his shoulder wrong. And that was a season. Now
24:52
Speaker 3: people are worried because he's only been having some days
24:54
Speaker 3: where he's only throwing five to six passes and certain
24:57
Speaker 3: practices and they're giving him rest days.
25:00
Speaker 2: I think it's just because it's July.
25:01
Speaker 3: Guys like I just think they're gonna take it nice
25:03
Speaker 3: and easy with their prize possession.
25:05
Speaker 2: I've even you know, Chad talked about change.
25:08
Speaker 3: Second guy I even talk about yet, I have so
25:10
Speaker 3: much respect for this guy's a coach. Like if you
25:12
Speaker 3: just watch what he did with that offense last year,
25:14
Speaker 3: you go to the year before we almost got Hurts
25:17
Speaker 3: and MVP.
25:19
Speaker 2: This guy is it right?
25:20
Speaker 3: When the Eagles lost him, I didn't realize how big
25:21
Speaker 3: of a deal he was for their success until I
25:23
Speaker 3: did watch the Colts' offense where it's like they have
25:26
Speaker 3: a ton of motion. They have a ton of just
25:28
Speaker 3: getting people off balance, especially defense defenses. Now you're mixing
25:32
Speaker 3: in he did this with minshear right. Now you bring
25:34
Speaker 3: in one of the best athletes I can recall in
25:37
Speaker 3: the NFL. It's just the sky's a limit for this team.
25:40
Speaker 3: So yeah, sixty five to one. I know I just
25:43
Speaker 3: talked about not really wanting to bet, you know, the
25:46
Speaker 3: Jaguars at fifty to one. That's what I think this
25:48
Speaker 3: team should be closer. I think they should be fifty
25:50
Speaker 3: to one, forty five to one. Again, their wintals are
25:53
Speaker 3: the same. I think it's eight and a half for
25:54
Speaker 3: both these teams. I much rather invest in this upside
25:57
Speaker 3: of this team where I do trust our offense. I
26:00
Speaker 3: do have a bunch of guys with good grades on
26:03
Speaker 3: their defensive line that yeah, they're no name like I mean,
26:06
Speaker 3: I think they have the Forest Buccaner on the line
26:08
Speaker 3: who people know from his days on the forty nine ers,
26:10
Speaker 3: and he is really solid. But across the board they
26:12
Speaker 3: have a lot of guys they can rotate in that
26:14
Speaker 3: defensive tackles are good. You know, They're just a team
26:17
Speaker 3: that even last year Houston they played them really hard.
26:20
Speaker 2: Especially defensively.
26:21
Speaker 3: So as you know, if you're a fan of the show,
26:24
Speaker 3: week one, me and Chad have bet the Colts at
26:26
Speaker 3: home against Houston.
26:27
Speaker 2: That really sets the tone for the season. That's the
26:30
Speaker 2: kind of.
26:30
Speaker 3: Game where Chad just said, they're they're division odds plus
26:34
Speaker 3: three ten if they win that game. What do you
26:36
Speaker 3: think Chad plus two hundred division odds for the Colts
26:39
Speaker 3: team just because of one game. So that's the kind
26:41
Speaker 3: of team why I want to invest in them.
26:43
Speaker 1: Now, Yes, I was going to say, for me in
26:45
Speaker 1: this division, this is the team you got a pinpoint right,
26:51
Speaker 1: And to me, it's not the super Bowl odds and
26:53
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily their season win total. It's the plus
26:56
Speaker 1: three ten. I think that's where the most value is.
26:59
Speaker 1: And if you're going to invest your money now and
27:01
Speaker 1: have to wait until the end of the season for
27:03
Speaker 1: a payout, I'd rather take a little bit more of
27:05
Speaker 1: a flyer on the plus three ten. Divisions change every year,
27:10
Speaker 1: like whatever we thought happened, whatever happened last year, is
27:13
Speaker 1: not what we think is going to happen this year.
27:15
Speaker 1: There is a stat Evan Abrams has that we're going
27:18
Speaker 1: to talk about in every single division preview, which is,
27:23
Speaker 1: and it doesn't apply to the Colts this year. In
27:25
Speaker 1: nineteen of the past twenty one seasons, ninety one percent
27:30
Speaker 1: of the time an NFL team has gone from worst
27:34
Speaker 1: to first in this division. It did happen last year.
27:37
Speaker 1: The Texans went from worst to first in their division.
27:42
Speaker 1: They nailed their draft, they nailed their head coaching pick,
27:44
Speaker 1: They had some great luck with Anthony Richardson going down,
27:49
Speaker 1: with Trevor Lawrence going down, Tennessee being in a down
27:53
Speaker 1: year where everything was cratering. So it does happen. We're
27:58
Speaker 1: going to talk about that a regular basis in these previews.
28:03
Speaker 1: To back up Simon here, offensive line rank for the
28:05
Speaker 1: Colts three. Okay, their offensive tackle duo was arguably the
28:12
Speaker 1: best in the league. Left tackle is Bernard Raymonds, right
28:17
Speaker 1: tackle Braden Smith. Each finished amongst the seventh highest graded
28:23
Speaker 1: offensive tackles in twenty twenty three. Ryan Kelly highest graded
28:29
Speaker 1: center in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus. All
28:34
Speaker 1: five starting lineman in return for twenty twenty four didn't
28:38
Speaker 1: even mention Quenton Nelson. He still grades out as a
28:41
Speaker 1: top fifteen guard. So you've got a top three offensive
28:45
Speaker 1: line protecting Anthony Richardson, also opening holes for Jonathan Taylor, who,
28:50
Speaker 1: like you said, will be playing healthy and playing the
28:53
Speaker 1: full season because he's from back from his contract negotiations
28:57
Speaker 1: and won't be holding out. Meanwhile, their defensive line is
29:01
Speaker 1: seventh grader than the NFL.
29:03
Speaker 3: It's all there, and then you add in top that
29:04
Speaker 3: we have such high respect for their head coach. It's
29:06
Speaker 3: like this is these are the kind teams we talked.
29:09
Speaker 1: About Shane steichen Sion, Like we love this guy. It
29:13
Speaker 1: we love like, we love him so much because we
29:16
Speaker 1: realized halfway through the Eagles season how much of a
29:19
Speaker 1: genius he was that team, because that.
29:22
Speaker 2: The wrong guy.
29:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like what he did with Anthony Richardson to
29:27
Speaker 1: start the season and then what he was able to
29:29
Speaker 1: do with Gardner Minshew throughout the rest of the year
29:31
Speaker 1: and just.
29:32
Speaker 2: On the fly and Justin on the fly guys.
29:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah, we love this team. Love it, love it.
29:39
Speaker 1: If you haven't understood it. We're in on the Colts
29:42
Speaker 1: at plus three ten to win their division. Meanwhile, Tennessee
29:47
Speaker 1: for Tennessee like this team. Boy, we used to love
29:53
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel. He was our guy. One of the coaches
29:55
Speaker 1: who was better as an underdog than anybody else the
29:58
Speaker 1: past twenty years. Only Mike Tomlin that are automatic bet
30:01
Speaker 1: when he was an underdog. Last year was a tough year.
30:04
Speaker 1: So now he's out. Brian Callahan, former offensive coordinated for
30:09
Speaker 1: the Bengals, is in. Will Levis is the quarterback knew
30:14
Speaker 1: basically knew everything right. Derrick Henry is out. Tennessee is
30:18
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one to win the Super Bowl,
30:21
Speaker 1: ten to one plus two thousand to win the division.
30:25
Speaker 1: Season win total is four and a half. Not a
30:29
Speaker 1: lot to write home around here. Their offensive line is thirtieth.
30:39
Speaker 1: Here's the thing I would say that I really like
30:43
Speaker 1: about their offensive line. They've invested in it. Peter Skarnsky,
30:51
Speaker 1: the offensive lineman from Northwestern last year, Jc Latham, the
30:55
Speaker 1: offensive lineman from Alabama this year, back to back first
30:58
Speaker 1: round picks. Here's the most important thing, I think. And
31:01
Speaker 1: we'll get to the defensive line after you. I want
31:03
Speaker 1: you to comment on this. Brian Callahan's father is Bill Callahan.
31:08
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, Bill Callen, who coached the
31:12
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Super Bowl against John Gruden
31:15
Speaker 1: and the Raiders in like two thousand and three, I
31:19
Speaker 1: mean coach the Raiders to the super Bowl against John
31:21
Speaker 1: Gruden and the Bucks in two thousand and three, is
31:25
Speaker 1: known as the best offensive line coach in the NFL.
31:27
Speaker 1: So now he is with his son coaching a new
31:30
Speaker 1: offensive line, coaching a young offensive line. This is thirtieth
31:34
Speaker 1: to me with a bullet and it will be interesting
31:36
Speaker 1: to see how well this team does as the season
31:38
Speaker 1: goes on.
31:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we just went from me, it's so possible
31:43
Speaker 3: the Colts. Now it's like, I hate to do it,
31:46
Speaker 3: t Tennessee. I'm just gonna be shitting on you. I
31:48
Speaker 3: just all of it, even stuff I'm ringing in camp.
31:51
Speaker 3: I just don't see how it's gonna work out.
31:53
Speaker 2: Will love us.
31:53
Speaker 3: And it's funny where we talked last year about how
31:56
Speaker 3: this last year's draft was going to shape this division
32:00
Speaker 3: for the next ten years. Little did we know that
32:02
Speaker 3: CJ was gonna be the one right that was gonna be,
32:05
Speaker 3: you know, the future right taking over his division so fast.
32:07
Speaker 3: And you know, I said, Anthony Richard, if he hits,
32:10
Speaker 3: he's gonna be the guy in this division. If Will
32:12
Speaker 3: Levis hits for Tennessee, he could be this guy in
32:14
Speaker 3: the division. And you know, we did see flashes right
32:16
Speaker 3: that Miami game. One of our bigger bets last year
32:19
Speaker 3: was the Bills to come back and win this division,
32:21
Speaker 3: and we needed a miracle from Will Levis to kind
32:24
Speaker 3: of set those things in motion and come and beat
32:26
Speaker 3: that Miami team. I think he scored fourteen points in
32:28
Speaker 3: like two minutes to an incredible comeback.
32:32
Speaker 2: But that's the issue. He is so bad and inconsistent.
32:35
Speaker 2: The guy.
32:37
Speaker 3: He could throw these incredible deep passes to Hopkins, but
32:40
Speaker 3: for a third and five, you're dead. I mean, he's
32:43
Speaker 3: not picking you up those five yards. It doesn't matter
32:45
Speaker 3: what the players driven draw up. Last year, he would
32:47
Speaker 3: get happy feet. Like Arry I talked they had a
32:49
Speaker 3: bad offensive line. They're trying to improve it. But all
32:53
Speaker 3: the lines up for me to bet this.
32:54
Speaker 2: Team to have the worst record in football, Like.
32:56
Speaker 3: They're just they fit the perfect description of a team
32:58
Speaker 3: that I don't really have trust for faith in the
33:01
Speaker 3: coach yet, and I don't really trust it all the
33:03
Speaker 3: quarterback and the things I read from the beat writers,
33:06
Speaker 3: it doesn't sound like he's improved. He sounds like he's
33:08
Speaker 3: inconsistent still in these practices. And that's that's the fear.
33:11
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I tryed to take too much
33:13
Speaker 3: away from OTA's right because they're working on stuff then,
33:16
Speaker 3: but stuff I read it's like, no, he's still inconsistent.
33:19
Speaker 3: He's still against air, is overthrowing guys or under throwing guys.
33:23
Speaker 3: That's a big issue when the NFL. You have to
33:26
Speaker 3: be perfect, like you just you just do because that's
33:29
Speaker 3: what everyone else is aiming for. Like these other guys
33:32
Speaker 3: that are inconsistent, they eventually fade away.
33:34
Speaker 2: They eventually turned to a Ryan Tannehill.
33:36
Speaker 3: It's like maybe we can, you know, have such a
33:38
Speaker 3: good team, we can get by and get us there.
33:41
Speaker 2: That's not this team here in Tennessee.
33:43
Speaker 3: Right, They've lost a lot of key positions, So the
33:45
Speaker 3: fact that variable left as well, it's just at plus
33:48
Speaker 3: eight hundred plus nine hundred for them to have worst record,
33:50
Speaker 3: Like they're on my list right now. I mean, we're
33:52
Speaker 3: going to get to these other teams on my list,
33:54
Speaker 3: but they're one of the three I've kind of zero
33:56
Speaker 3: in on. It's like I could easily see this team
33:58
Speaker 3: tanking because their division is so good, and if will
34:02
Speaker 3: love Us isn't that guy, why wouldn't they want to
34:05
Speaker 3: get up and get a good new guy with a
34:06
Speaker 3: new head coach who they just brought in, right, So uh,
34:09
Speaker 3: to me, it's it's our make or break here for
34:12
Speaker 3: wll of leves like they're gonna be quick to move
34:13
Speaker 3: on for we STANDFL is different now, right, teams are
34:15
Speaker 3: quick to move on because their working contract is the
34:18
Speaker 3: key for so many of these teams.
34:19
Speaker 2: So even if he did all right, we.
34:21
Speaker 3: Could see another scenari where it's like justin fields, where
34:23
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, he wasn't the worst team the
34:26
Speaker 3: worst quarterback in the league, but the team at an
34:28
Speaker 3: opportunity to go in a different direction, so they took it,
34:30
Speaker 3: and I feel like Tennessee will.
34:31
Speaker 2: Go the same way. Where it's we'll love us.
34:33
Speaker 3: Was the second round pick, and you know there's a
34:36
Speaker 3: bunch of reasons he went in that second round, and
34:38
Speaker 3: we're kind of seeing it. So yeah, I know it's
34:41
Speaker 3: it's tough to hear Tennessee. But you guys being one
34:43
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one, that's right for your super Bowl.
34:46
Speaker 3: It's four and a half. That's a that that sounds
34:49
Speaker 3: right to me. You guys are in a tough division now,
34:51
Speaker 3: like we just talked about it, So it's it's all
34:54
Speaker 3: there for them to be possibly the worst team in football.
34:57
Speaker 2: But it's also all there. Cheat.
34:59
Speaker 3: I talked about your little bit box, bringing in the
35:00
Speaker 3: best offensive line of coach, drafting offensive line players, bringing
35:04
Speaker 3: in Calvin Ridley to be a weapon on the outside
35:07
Speaker 3: outside of Hopkins on the other side. So it is
35:10
Speaker 3: there are pieces there to make you know, the like
35:13
Speaker 3: progress happen. I'm just I'm not seeing it or reading
35:15
Speaker 3: it right now, So I just have to go off
35:17
Speaker 3: when I'm reading off these beat writers, and that's just
35:19
Speaker 3: that Will Loves has not showed up what they expected.
35:21
Speaker 2: Him to be.
35:22
Speaker 1: Defensive line ranking is twenty first stand out there as
35:25
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons who was the standout every year. I feel
35:28
Speaker 1: like he's one of those guys who in years past
35:30
Speaker 1: when we talked about Tennessee, we loved he'd be a
35:34
Speaker 1: guy who would make us be more comfortable betting on
35:37
Speaker 1: Tennessee in sort of an underdog position because he didn't
35:40
Speaker 1: get enough credit. He's just got nothing around him right
35:43
Speaker 1: now to really make an impact for a team. We
35:48
Speaker 1: just don't think they have the talent. I see more
35:50
Speaker 1: about who Will Levis is dating. There was just a
35:53
Speaker 1: story this morning in the New York Post that Will
35:57
Speaker 1: Levis is potentially dating a former bachelorette. Then I hear
36:02
Speaker 1: anything about Will Levis and his performance during the offseason
36:06
Speaker 1: or the confidence the Titans have in him, or is
36:09
Speaker 1: he the next great quarterback? And you're not wrong, Like
36:12
Speaker 1: Justin Fields, Bears moved off from quickly, Trey Lance, Niners
36:17
Speaker 1: dropped them as soon as Brock Purdy was throwing passes.
36:22
Speaker 3: They were accurate, right, They're just not that team that
36:24
Speaker 3: people aren't talking about them, right, And that's kind of
36:27
Speaker 3: where we're at with this team.
36:29
Speaker 2: Sad.
36:29
Speaker 1: There used to be a team we loved this year,
36:31
Speaker 1: the team we love from this division, the Indianapolis Colts
36:36
Speaker 1: plus three ten. We might want to bet the Tennessee
36:39
Speaker 1: Titans plus eight hundred plus nine hundred to have the
36:42
Speaker 1: worst record in the NFL. A little bit of a
36:47
Speaker 1: taste on the Jags and they're over. Other than that,
36:50
Speaker 1: we're pretty much staying away from everything. So to recap
36:52
Speaker 1: again quickly, Colts plus three ten, Titans, worst record in
36:58
Speaker 1: the league, Jags in that order. By the way, those
37:02
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