Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold on the Rise: Central Banks, Conflicts, and Inflation - Alan Hibbard #6116

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Gold on the Rise: Central Banks, Conflicts, and Inflation - Alan Hibbard #6116 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, so gold is up, and earlier this morning, just
0:03
Speaker 1: a couple hours ago, it poked its head above twenty
0:05
Speaker 1: five hundred and ounce, which is a pretty special number,
0:08
Speaker 1: big psychological number, and I think this is coming from
0:10
Speaker 1: a lot of places. Really, it's sort of every part
0:13
Speaker 1: of the economy that you could think of. Quite honestly.
0:15
Speaker 1: We have central bank gold buying which is accelerating right.
0:19
Speaker 1: China is the number one importer of gold, is also
0:22
Speaker 1: the number one producer of gold, and many other central
0:25
Speaker 1: banks are hoarding it as well.
0:26
Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where
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0:47
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0:54
Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
0:58
Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lott. Well, today the
1:01
Speaker 3: market's down, gold is up. I haven't looked at the
1:05
Speaker 3: dollar yet, but I'd venture to say it's probably going
1:08
Speaker 3: up as well, because gold and the dollar have been
1:12
Speaker 3: going up together recently. Yes, the dollars the Dixie Index?
1:18
Speaker 3: Is it one oh four point three five? Hey, we're
1:20
Speaker 3: on the first day of August. Alan Hibbards with us
1:23
Speaker 3: Goldsilver dot Com. Allen, Hey, so what do you make
1:27
Speaker 3: of the current action in the stock market and in
1:32
Speaker 3: the price of medals?
1:33
Speaker 1: Hey, Kerrie, thanks for having me. Yeah, so gold is
1:36
Speaker 1: up and earlier this morning, just a couple hours ago,
1:38
Speaker 1: it poked its head above twenty five hundred and ounce,
1:41
Speaker 1: which is a pretty special number, big psychological number, and
1:44
Speaker 1: I think this is coming from a lot of places. Really,
1:47
Speaker 1: it's sort of every part of the economy that you
1:49
Speaker 1: could think of, quite honestly. We have central bank gold
1:52
Speaker 1: buying which is accelerating right. China is the number one
1:56
Speaker 1: importer of gold, is also the number one producer of gold,
1:58
Speaker 1: and many other central banks are hoarding it as well.
2:01
Speaker 1: Retail investors are buying it. We've seen a lot of
2:04
Speaker 1: geopolitical tension, We've seen inflation concerns. We've talked talk of
2:08
Speaker 1: the FED cutting rates in September. So really just about
2:11
Speaker 1: everything that could be bullish for gold is bullish for gold.
2:15
Speaker 3: And you missed one major thing that I believe will
2:20
Speaker 3: be the veritable straw that breaks the camels back, and
2:24
Speaker 3: that is quite simply that China's economy is imploding. That
2:31
Speaker 3: the real estate market, which is the primary means of
2:36
Speaker 3: citizens of the wonderful country of PRC People's Republic of China,
2:42
Speaker 3: that was the primary means that you pretty much had
2:47
Speaker 3: for putting your excess savings in, and now it's looking
2:53
Speaker 3: like that's all gone.
2:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, that's a great point. I mean, for a
2:58
Speaker 1: lot of years, a lot of people in a lot
2:59
Speaker 1: of country have had a limited number of options for
3:03
Speaker 1: protecting their purchasing power. And as those sort of promises,
3:07
Speaker 1: really most things are most things are credit, even something
3:10
Speaker 1: like real estate, because you know, you rely on the
3:13
Speaker 1: government to guarantee it, your property rights and so forth.
3:16
Speaker 1: As those different forms of credit evaporate, you're sort of
3:19
Speaker 1: left with things that aren't credit, and that's basically gold
3:22
Speaker 1: and silver. So slowly we're seeing that that trade happen
3:26
Speaker 1: all over the world for different reasons.
3:28
Speaker 3: All right, Yeah, and you know there still is you
3:33
Speaker 3: can't really get the straight scoop on how many what
3:38
Speaker 3: the exact size of the Chinese population is. It appears
3:43
Speaker 3: there's still over a billion of them there and if
3:48
Speaker 3: they start buying en mass, what do you think is
3:50
Speaker 3: going to happen.
3:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm expecting the price to go up a lot.
3:53
Speaker 1: I'm expecting it to continue to go up as it
3:55
Speaker 1: has been. But I'm also expecting that trend to continue.
3:58
Speaker 1: And you know what's interesting is I just sat down
4:00
Speaker 1: the other day to look at the nineteen seventies bull
4:02
Speaker 1: run in gold and silver, and out of curiosity, I said, okay,
4:07
Speaker 1: at that blowoff top that ended in nineteen eighty, how
4:11
Speaker 1: how long did it take for the price of gold
4:13
Speaker 1: to double right before that peak? And the answer is
4:16
Speaker 1: forty two days, forty two days, and those are calendar days,
4:20
Speaker 1: not trading days. So forty two days before the top
4:23
Speaker 1: of eight hundred and seventy three dollars, forty two days
4:26
Speaker 1: prior the price of gold was half. So that's a
4:29
Speaker 1: tremendous move to get at the end of a bull market.
4:32
Speaker 1: And it, by the way, quadrupled in a year and
4:34
Speaker 1: a week. A year and a week, So imagine the
4:36
Speaker 1: price of gold quadrupling in a year and a week.
4:39
Speaker 1: So if we're talking about twenty five hundred dollars announce
4:43
Speaker 1: gold now four times that is ten thousand dollars an ounce,
4:46
Speaker 1: which sounds like an absolute crazy person number, but it
4:49
Speaker 1: quadrupled in a year and a week at the end
4:51
Speaker 1: of that bull run. So do I think that's going
4:53
Speaker 1: to happen? No? Is it possible? Of course, because it
4:56
Speaker 1: already has happened. So we're talking about big numbers and
5:00
Speaker 1: buying pressure is coming from everywhere all.
5:02
Speaker 3: Over the globe. Yeah, and I think it's even happening
5:05
Speaker 3: in the US to some extent, don't you think?
5:07
Speaker 1: Absolutely, there's no question. And we saw that earlier this
5:10
Speaker 1: year and in Q four last year with the massive
5:14
Speaker 1: retail craze going to Costco and Walmart, and of course
5:17
Speaker 1: at our company, we see a tremendous pickup in volume.
5:21
Speaker 1: So yeah, a lot of people are buying gold. And
5:23
Speaker 1: I had some friends reach out to me earlier this
5:25
Speaker 1: year who said they bought gold and silver for the
5:27
Speaker 1: first time, which is kind of unprecedented because they're you know, well,
5:31
Speaker 1: that's why I guess what first time means by definition.
5:33
Speaker 1: But they're in their forties buying gold for the first time.
5:35
Speaker 1: You know, they've been investing twenty years and they're just
5:38
Speaker 1: getting into it now. And I don't think they're alone.
5:40
Speaker 1: I think I think a lot of people in the
5:41
Speaker 1: United States are going to be following that batter thinks.
5:44
Speaker 3: So huh, all right, so it's not going up to
5:48
Speaker 3: ten thousand so quick. I mean, I just find that
5:51
Speaker 3: a little hard to believe. I don't know about you.
5:54
Speaker 3: I just see it.
5:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't see it either. And one thing I
5:57
Speaker 1: should say is that the the bull market of the
6:00
Speaker 1: nineteen seventies took ten years to play out. The one
6:03
Speaker 1: we're currently in has been playing out over about twenty
6:05
Speaker 1: five years, so it's taking two and a half times longer, roughly.
6:09
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't expect such a move in one year.
6:13
Speaker 1: You know, the comparable time frame would be two and
6:15
Speaker 1: a half years. But even that seems more aggressive that
6:19
Speaker 1: I think is going to happen. But my point here
6:22
Speaker 1: isn't that you know such a large number is going
6:25
Speaker 1: to happen. My point is that big moves are possible
6:27
Speaker 1: and people don't realize it. So even if gold only
6:30
Speaker 1: doubles to five thousand and ounce over the next few years,
6:33
Speaker 1: that's going to catch so many people by surprise. And
6:36
Speaker 1: there's there's multiple times that gold has done that throughout history,
6:40
Speaker 1: So you know, big moves are definitely possible, and the
6:43
Speaker 1: biggest moves of a bull run come at the end.
6:46
Speaker 1: So it looks like we're shaping up to the final
6:49
Speaker 1: maybe two to five years of the bull market. So
6:51
Speaker 1: I'm expecting I'm expecting big.
6:53
Speaker 3: Moves, all right. So, hey, are the world's currency is
6:57
Speaker 3: going to collapse?
6:58
Speaker 1: Well, when gold goes up every day, that's the world's
7:02
Speaker 1: currencies collapsing in slow motion. I mean, that's really what
7:05
Speaker 1: that is. Like, gold and silver don't change, so if
7:08
Speaker 1: the price changes, it's because the dollar or the pound
7:11
Speaker 1: or the yen or whatever you want to measure it,
7:13
Speaker 1: and that's what's changing. Those things are really getting weaker.
7:15
Speaker 1: So any fiat currency is just slowly going to zero,
7:19
Speaker 1: and they go slowly and then they go quickly so
7:22
Speaker 1: gradually then suddenly, so yeah, they're.
7:24
Speaker 3: Sort of and people go bankrupt, right.
7:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, unfortunately and I mean quickly. Yeah. Yeah. It's not
7:32
Speaker 1: something to be happy about, but it is inevitable. So
7:35
Speaker 1: it makes sense to be prepared. Is that simple?
7:37
Speaker 3: Hey, Just because the country's going down the tubes and
7:41
Speaker 3: the economy is going down the tubes, doesn't mean you
7:45
Speaker 3: have to go down the tubes with it.
7:47
Speaker 1: Right, Hey, I agree. I agree completely, all.
7:50
Speaker 3: Right, So what kind of what kind of gold do
7:53
Speaker 3: you think people should buy? I'm not talking you and
7:56
Speaker 3: I've been buying it for years. I'm talking about lesser
8:00
Speaker 3: sophisticated Johnny com lately gold bugs. What do you buy?
8:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it makes sense to start with an
8:06
Speaker 1: allocation to physical precious metals. So maybe that makes sense.
8:09
Speaker 1: Maybe it makes sense to have something delivered to your house.
8:12
Speaker 1: And you know, there's a big misconception that, first of all,
8:16
Speaker 1: it's hard to buy gold, like you have to ride
8:18
Speaker 1: your horse and buggy down to the you know, gold
8:21
Speaker 1: dealer or something like that. It's not true. You can
8:24
Speaker 1: buy gold online just as easy as if you're buying
8:26
Speaker 1: something from Amazon. It's a couple of clicks, it gets
8:29
Speaker 1: shipped to your door. And in terms of what to
8:31
Speaker 1: buy physical investment grade gold and silver, if you live
8:35
Speaker 1: in the United States, a gold eagle would make a
8:38
Speaker 1: lot of sense. If you live in Canada, maybe a
8:40
Speaker 1: gold maple leaf and so on is something that's regionally
8:45
Speaker 1: close to you wherever you live in the world. So yeah,
8:48
Speaker 1: and there's another misconception that you need, you know, a
8:51
Speaker 1: giant safe with lasers in your basement or something like that.
8:54
Speaker 1: You absolutely don't. You can store a lot of gold,
8:58
Speaker 1: high value gold in it.
8:59
Speaker 3: It doesn't hurt though, doesn't It.
9:01
Speaker 1: Doesn't hurt, but you do already have it. Great, but
9:04
Speaker 1: you certainly don't need to install it. I mean you can.
9:06
Speaker 1: You can store ten thousand dollars, ten thousand dollars worth
9:09
Speaker 1: of gold in your pocket, and it's smaller than your
9:11
Speaker 1: cell phone. It weighs less than your cell phone ten
9:13
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, so it is very dense. You could put
9:16
Speaker 1: in your sock drawer, you know, a pretty decent chunk
9:19
Speaker 1: of values. So you don't need massive security measures obviously.
9:23
Speaker 1: If you have them, or you want to implement them,
9:25
Speaker 1: by all means, go for it. And there's third party
9:28
Speaker 1: storage available where there are guys with guns that specialize
9:31
Speaker 1: in protecting precious metals and other valuable assets. But yeah,
9:34
Speaker 1: I would start with physical investment grade gold and silver.
9:37
Speaker 1: I wouldn't get collector coins, you know, numismatics, I wouldn't
9:41
Speaker 1: get any I wouldn't buy any ETFs or any paper
9:44
Speaker 1: gold or promises, nothing like that. So yeah, physical gold
9:47
Speaker 1: and silver, and if you feel comfortable storing it at home,
9:50
Speaker 1: do so. If not store it at a trusted third party.
9:53
Speaker 1: Probably don't put it in a bank safety deposit box
9:57
Speaker 1: just because if the banks go bankrupt or have a problem,
10:01
Speaker 1: they get to take your stuff. So I wouldn't do that.
10:04
Speaker 3: Now that's total mistake. Never put it in a bank. Well,
10:09
Speaker 3: you could put a little there, let's put it that way,
10:11
Speaker 3: but I wouldn't make it your primary storage facility. There's
10:17
Speaker 3: private safe deposit boxes, which one got rated illegally as
10:23
Speaker 3: it turned out, by the FBI and they wound up
10:30
Speaker 3: having to account for it. And we used to have
10:33
Speaker 3: a number of them in Florida, and the one that
10:35
Speaker 3: I used to use went out of business. You know,
10:38
Speaker 3: one of my favorite places alan to store it if
10:41
Speaker 3: you live near a casino, casino safe deposit box, because
10:46
Speaker 3: casinos open twenty four to seven and they provide their
10:52
Speaker 3: customers with a free, complimentary safe deposit box behind the cage. Now,
10:57
Speaker 3: sometimes these cages do get robbed, like in Vegas, although
11:00
Speaker 3: they've taken measures now that it's exceedingly rare. But the
11:05
Speaker 3: one thing they've never tried to do is go behind
11:08
Speaker 3: the cage the cashier's facility in the casino and start
11:12
Speaker 3: breaking safe deposit boxes open. I remember one guy he
11:17
Speaker 3: was up ten million dollars and he kept to all
11:21
Speaker 3: of his chips in binions safe in their safe deposit box.
11:27
Speaker 3: Ten million dollars worth of casino chips, which is the
11:30
Speaker 3: same as cash, right, Yeah, exactly. That's a pretty creative solution.
11:34
Speaker 1: I like that. So it feels like an Ocean's eleven
11:36
Speaker 1: type scenario.
11:38
Speaker 3: You know who created it? You know who came up
11:40
Speaker 3: with that one? Oh me? You're looking at him because
11:44
Speaker 3: these problems. And I used to keep some gold in
11:48
Speaker 3: a casino up in Connecticut once upon a time, and
11:53
Speaker 3: you know, then it just got a little unmanageable. But
11:58
Speaker 3: you know I always did and it was no big deal.
12:02
Speaker 3: So and it's free. And the best thing, Alan is
12:06
Speaker 3: you have twenty four to seven access. There is no
12:09
Speaker 3: other place in the world other than in your own
12:12
Speaker 3: home where you were going to have twenty four to
12:14
Speaker 3: seven access to your box. You know. David Morgan, Yeah,
12:20
Speaker 3: he liked that one enough that he's recommended it to people.
12:23
Speaker 3: So me and David go way way back. We've been
12:27
Speaker 3: friends for the better part of a decade. So if
12:31
Speaker 3: he liked it, then I know it's good. Yeah, that's awesome, beautiful.
12:35
Speaker 3: I love the incentives there of the casino too. I
12:37
Speaker 3: mean they're obviously trying to protect everything. They don't want
12:40
Speaker 3: a robbery or a loss. So yeah, oh you're never
12:43
Speaker 3: it's never going to get ripped off there, you know,
12:46
Speaker 3: it's just not as a virtual impossibility. Yeah, Like if
12:52
Speaker 3: the whole world collapses and you can't get it, if
12:55
Speaker 3: you can't get into a casino to donate your money
12:59
Speaker 3: to their bottom line, then things are really bad and
13:03
Speaker 3: you're not going to be worrying about your goal. That's
13:04
Speaker 3: the way I figure it.
13:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and maybe it makes sense to diversify so right,
13:10
Speaker 1: as a form of defense. So don't put it all
13:12
Speaker 1: in one casino, you know, pick several different casinos or oh.
13:15
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, you could do that too. I didn't
13:18
Speaker 3: mention that, but every casine, Like if you're in Vegas,
13:21
Speaker 3: every casino there and just about has got a safe
13:25
Speaker 3: deposit box area. And if you're in other places Mississippi, Reno,
13:32
Speaker 3: even California. You know the Indian casinos in Connecticut. You
13:36
Speaker 3: got two casinos in Atlantic City, you know all these places.
13:40
Speaker 3: In Florida, there's numerous casinos here where you can park
13:43
Speaker 3: your goal. Then Hey, if you're the nervous type, which
13:46
Speaker 3: I definitely am not embarrassed to say it here, Alan,
13:52
Speaker 3: you know, you split it up under three or four
13:54
Speaker 3: of them and you keep some at home just for
13:56
Speaker 3: safe measure. So yeah, And like I say, casino cages
14:02
Speaker 3: cashiers get ripped off on occasion. But like in Nevada,
14:06
Speaker 3: you could kill somebody and get three years in jail,
14:09
Speaker 3: but if you rob a casino, I'll put you away
14:12
Speaker 3: for life.
14:14
Speaker 1: Wow, I didn't realize that.
14:15
Speaker 3: That's uh yeah, that's the greatest defense you can do,
14:18
Speaker 3: is ripping off a casino the nerve how dare you right?
14:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't steal from the rich, right, that was Bernie
14:26
Speaker 1: Meadof's crime.
14:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, if you're going to steal, steal
14:31
Speaker 3: from you know, well, anyway, we don't encourage anybody, that's right.
14:37
Speaker 3: It's like, there's enough easy ways to make money without
14:40
Speaker 3: the risk of going to to the slammer that you
14:44
Speaker 3: don't need to do it. But hey, so what do
14:47
Speaker 3: you see the time frame for the price of gold
14:51
Speaker 3: making its play here?
14:52
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, we're we're flirting with record highs right now,
14:55
Speaker 1: so it's kind of hard to say how much longer
14:59
Speaker 1: the bull run is going to cat continue. I would
15:00
Speaker 1: guess something like two to five years, but I'm not
15:05
Speaker 1: overly confident in that range, you know. It's it's sort
15:08
Speaker 1: of like dependent on what else happens in the economy,
15:11
Speaker 1: depends on moves by politicians, the outcome of elections, wars,
15:16
Speaker 1: and so forth. It's going to matter a lot. So
15:19
Speaker 1: really I'm looking at it from a few different perspectives,
15:22
Speaker 1: the most important of which is probably the Dow gold ratio.
15:26
Speaker 1: Just basically, like you know, the Dow and stocks in
15:30
Speaker 1: general have been like the main trade that you know,
15:32
Speaker 1: any investor takes for the last few generations. It's like
15:36
Speaker 1: if you ask someone, hey, you know, I'm saving or
15:39
Speaker 1: I'm investing for retirement, the follow up question is, oh,
15:42
Speaker 1: what stocks do you own? Like that's just it's just
15:44
Speaker 1: assumed that you're going to own stocks like that is
15:46
Speaker 1: the way you invest. It's what everyone does by default,
15:49
Speaker 1: and so it doesn't have to be that way. And
15:51
Speaker 1: so as a result, the last few generations, stocks have
15:54
Speaker 1: become massively overbought, and I'm looking for capital flow out
15:58
Speaker 1: of stocks eventually in the coming years and to flow
16:01
Speaker 1: back into precious metals. Because they've been largely ignored and unloved.
16:06
Speaker 1: So as that shift happens, and I don't know the timeframe,
16:10
Speaker 1: it'll take a few years, it might take eight or
16:12
Speaker 1: ten years. But as that shift happens, that's what I'm
16:15
Speaker 1: going to shift most of my capital from precious metals
16:17
Speaker 1: back into stocks and perhaps real estate if appropriate at
16:21
Speaker 1: the time. So, yeah, I don't know the timeframe, but
16:24
Speaker 1: that's sort of the general long term swing trade that
16:27
Speaker 1: I'm making.
16:28
Speaker 3: All Right, Well, I totally agree with you, and it's
16:33
Speaker 3: definitely going to be interesting to see it unfold here. Inevitably,
16:37
Speaker 3: it's going to right.
16:39
Speaker 1: And have ablity, it's going to all right, Hey.
16:42
Speaker 3: So we connect with you on goldsilver dot com. Any
16:45
Speaker 3: other way to connect with you on the web here, Ellen.
16:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, goldsilver dot com, or you can go to the
16:49
Speaker 1: gold Silver YouTube channel.
16:51
Speaker 3: All right, cool? Well links in the show notes to
16:53
Speaker 3: this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Ask you
16:57
Speaker 3: if you go there, please sign up for a free newsletter.
17:00
Speaker 3: Over thirty thousand of you have, and hopefully we'll get
17:03
Speaker 3: another thirty thousand in the next year because this circus,
17:07
Speaker 3: this ride is just getting started. If you've got a
17:10
Speaker 3: question for Alan or myself. Shoot me an email klatcarrieluts
17:14
Speaker 3: dot com.
17:15
Speaker 1: Thanks Allan, Hey, thank you Carrie.
17:18
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
17:22
Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
17:26
Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,