Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn + Nvidia Earnings SHOCK ! Should You BUY/SELL Now? + Stock Market News 28 August 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn + Nvidia Earnings SHOCK ! Should You BUY/SELL Now? + Stock Market News 28 August 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Winston and Felix here and in the next few minutes I'm going to walk you through the good news and the bad news on NVIDIA earnings, what we're actually going to do next, where this is heading, the opportunity for semiconductor investing generally speaking and my goal is for this to be the most valuable thing you could watch in the next couple of minutes so you understand way more than the loons at Bloomberg, because the loons at Bloomberg put this out NVIDIA forecasts decelerating growth after two-year AI boom, like it's all over.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: They're going to even more detail.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: They're saying tepid revenue forecast for current period, fueling concerns that a massive run-up in AI spending is slowing.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: The company said it will roughly 45 billion revenue, which is in line with average estimates but lower than some analysts' projections.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Shares fell a bit as I'm recording this.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're still down, I'll show you, but obviously you can look that up yourself.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: We're trading at $175 right now.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: We're trading where we were last Friday.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Oh my God, it's all over.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So what's it actually about?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you the real numbers.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So this is, I think, the greatest way to ever look at a company and look at, like, what are they actually doing?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: And what you're going to ask yourself is are you doing something right If you're bringing in?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Is, are you doing something right if you're bringing in?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: You're keeping 57% of every dollar you charge on the revenue side.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So out of the $46 billion revenue, they keep 57% as net profit.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Find me another company that does that, that actually kind of manufactures stuff I know that's also manufacturing right, insane stuff.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And that margin has actually gone up, which is extraordinary.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: And what about growth?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Is there any growth?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah, revenue grew 56%.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Oh, tepid growth.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Demand, says Bloomberg.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Right, I mean, really, those people are just either just miserable or I don't know what's going on over there.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Look at these numbers Revenue up 56%, it's a beat.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Operating margin 61% slightly lower.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: But the only thing we really care about, earnings per share actually beat guidance.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Well, gross margins, margins, profit margins are actually going to increase to 74%.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Now, gross margin tells you how easy is it to replace this product, this company, with a competitor's product?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Now, anywhere above 60, you, generally speaking, have a moat that's so wide nobody can really cross it.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: When you're in the 70s, you're doing everything just right.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: And the revenue for next quarter is going to be 54 billion, plus or minus 2%.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: That's a beat by 1.2 billion and they're excluding this is really important, write this down they're excluding all China revenue from their forecast.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: So if they do end up selling something to China, that would just be a huge upside.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So they're lowballing the figure and they're still beating.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: So what are people smoking?
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Well, this is what's actually going on.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Jensen Huang said production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping up at full speed.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Demand is extraordinary.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Revenue up 56%.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Updater center revenue up 56%.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Gaming revenue up 49%.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Automotive up 69%.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Earnings per share up 61%.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: This is apparently the company that's struggling.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: You see this chart here, right, you see how that's growing, quarter over quarter over quarter over quarter over quarter over quarter.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: This is not a company that's slowing down.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: This is not a business that's in trouble.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Ai is here to stay.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: We don't need to worry about a thing.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And yeah, there's a bit of data here.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's trading at a forward PE.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: That is, price over earnings, so profit over price over profit, rather, and what's it right now?
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So forward PE, which means next year's profits.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Current share price is 40, right Palantir 256, right Tesla down here 188.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Hood is 77.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So it's not even overpriced and it's extraordinary, absolutely extraordinary, what these guys are delivering.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Now, what about wall street?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: What are they doing with it?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Well, have a look at the dark pool data from thursday.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: You can go into phoenix, friends at oxford straight vision down there.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And then let me talk about how we actually invest in this.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Um, give yourself a free trial.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: You can can go to the Darkpool data.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Put a video in here for Wednesday when the data come out.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: And what are we seeing?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Well, we're seeing.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: They're bullish About $166 million in call option Some really, really, really, really big trades here.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Right Again, gives you a little bit of sentiment.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I quite like looking at it, especially the day before earnings.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I always think somebody knows something.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: And then the stock chart.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Well, there is a little thing called pullbacks, and pullbacks are what happens to good stocks actually to all stocks and this was a pullback, this was a pullback, this was a pullback, this was a pullback, this was a pullback and this might well be a pullback.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: This was a pullback, this was a pullback, this was a pullback and this might well be a pullback.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: But it's not some extraordinary collapse crash that mainstream media is making it out to be.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: This is nonsense.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: This thing is trending on an upward trend.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: It is above the 50-day moving average line and if you have golden rules around your investing, there is no way in hell that your stops or your exit rules will have gotten triggered on this, and it still looks very, very, very good.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Now maybe you're a bit fuzzy on risk management and exit rules.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And when do I sell something that made a lot of money on?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Or, you know, I've just bought it here or there.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: What do I do?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Well, I'll teach you the three things that Wall Street does to just do well, consistently, again and again and again.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Wall Street's been around for 150 years and they're doing pretty well.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: And they're not doing pretty well because somebody had a great idea about some stock that nobody knew.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: No, it's because they have rules.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: They know where to buy.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So there's two ways of doing this.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: You either buy the rebound right or you buy the next breakout.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you both of those things, as well as where the risk management should sit on a stock like this.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: If you join me on Saturday, that's live felixrentsorg slash training.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: And before you tell me all about it being Labor Day and you traveling and so on, well, just imagine every day was Labor Day.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: That's my life now, right?
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I used to be a corporate wage slave.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I have my own businesses I still do, but I don't run them anymore and it means for me every day is Labor Day.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: 365 Labor Days a year.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: It's just extraordinary and it just gives you tremendous freedom, and the only thing that did that for me was replacing my income with my investing and my trading income.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So that is what I would suggest would be a plan Use Labor Day to no longer be labor.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash training.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Check it out down below.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: The future for NVIDIA looks bright and bushy eyed.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: If you ask me, we'll keep you up to date with all the latest news on exactly what's going on in NVIDIA inside trade vision as well, and I will also put out a video a couple of hours.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: We're going to start working on that right now on three semiconductor stocks that I think will actually outperform NVIDIA in the short term, not because they're better businesses, but just about where they are right now in the love or hate me cycle.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: And right now those stocks are still pretty hated, but they have tremendous opportunities and the more Nvidia goes up, the more it pulls up all that stuff, and that's one of the reasons we've been like an AMD.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It's just that it's been beaten up quite a bit.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So it had a lovely rally up here, right.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: That's why and it's still rallying up and it's still below all-time highs.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Now I've got some stocks for you that are way more beaten up.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So if you want to watch those, make sure you're subscribed after you sign up for the Saturday training.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I want to hear no excuses.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: No excuses.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Well, unless you just don't like financial freedom, in which case I can't help you.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Even Winston down there can't help you.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Winston is, by the way, hanging around for this thing here.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Winston, come on See.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: You see the focus, the laser focus of a golden retriever when there is a banana in the room.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: He loves these.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: We tend to share these, these little sort of little kind of slightly savory bananas.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I don't like the sweet ones, the big ones, I don't think they're very good for dogs.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: All right, down, good boy, sit, good boy, well done, well done.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: And half the hand is also in that mouth.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So start learning, my friends, and get excited.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: We're going to have a beautiful, shiny rally coming up, but not in everything, only in some things, and they will not necessarily be the things that you expect All.