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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Talk station, a thirty fifty five KRCD talk station. Try
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  Speaker 1: to have a happy Tuesday. Always extra special on a
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  Speaker 1: Tuesday when we get to talk with Daniel Davis, retired
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  Speaker 1: lieutendor Colonel Daniel Davis with the podcast you can find
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  Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and every Tuesday here in
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  Speaker 1: the fifty five KRSE Morning Show, Daniel Davis Deep Dive,
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  Speaker 1: Welcome back. It's a great to have you on the
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  Speaker 1: program as always, Daniel Davis, and good to see you,
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  Speaker 1: at least I'm capable of seeing you through our little
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  Speaker 1: conference window here.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's a lot of to be seen, so thank
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  Speaker 2: you very much.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and you're even talking about this since the out
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  Speaker 1: since the outset of this war with Iran, they've got
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  Speaker 1: a hell of a lot more rockets and missiles then
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  Speaker 1: I maybe we didn't that we didn't didn't anticipate. Every
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  Speaker 1: single day, you think, all right, there's no way they've
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  Speaker 1: got any more, and yet they continue to launch these
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  Speaker 1: missiles and now apparently they've revealed they've got some that
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  Speaker 1: go a lot further than there we originally thought. So
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  Speaker 1: Europe's a little concerned that they could be targeted by
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians I don't know whether you feel that's going
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  Speaker 1: to happen or anything, but and there's this idea that
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  Speaker 1: was going to be a short term operation. Days not weeks,
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  Speaker 1: were now into a month. Did Trump administration think that
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  Speaker 1: it was going to be like Venezuela, go in, get
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  Speaker 1: the figurehead out, and get a compliant regime to play
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  Speaker 1: ball with you. That obviously didn't work out that way,
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  Speaker 1: But do you think that was anticipated?
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  Speaker 2: Unfortunately? I've recently talked to a certain individual that had
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  Speaker 2: very high level access to the administration and he says
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  Speaker 2: that there was a significant number of people inside the
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  Speaker 2: administration that did think that what happened to Venezuela could
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  Speaker 2: be transferred over to Iran. There were plenty of people
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  Speaker 2: that counseled again to that on the inside and said, no,
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  Speaker 2: that's not going to happen. Those things are, you know,
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  Speaker 2: as far apart and different as you can even imagine.
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  Speaker 2: But it appears that those that thought it could be
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  Speaker 2: were able to sway the president and said, look, there's there'
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  Speaker 2: as week as they have been, remember all and the
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  Speaker 2: read up to this, there's week because they've been in
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  Speaker 2: all forty seven years of their existence. All we got
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  Speaker 2: to do is hit a really hard lock with Venezuela,
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  Speaker 2: take out the leader, and then we can make a
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  Speaker 2: deal with those that are left. That's what they thought
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  Speaker 2: they could do. And I think as we were talking
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  Speaker 2: before this thing kicked off, I said, there's very little chance,
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  Speaker 2: almost like a wing and a prayer at best, And
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  Speaker 2: the likelihood is what is playing out now, just because
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  Speaker 2: that's not the system of the Iranian government, and they
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  Speaker 2: have all kinds of capacity because they have foreseen this
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  Speaker 2: outcome for decades and they have prepared themselves to be
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  Speaker 2: able to withstand all of this incredible bombardment that we're
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  Speaker 2: dropping on top of them, and the diplomatic oscillation and
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  Speaker 2: all that. They were prepared for it logistically, psychologically, in
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  Speaker 2: every other way, and now it's playing out exactly as
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  Speaker 2: they had planned well.
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  Speaker 1: And looking at this sort of from my perception at least,
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  Speaker 1: and I'm certainly willing to admit that I'd be wrong
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  Speaker 1: on this, but my perception of it. You look at Venezuela,
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  Speaker 1: you know, Maduro and pretty unpopular guy. Obviously, I think
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  Speaker 1: he was a left that under spurious, suspicious circumstances. But
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  Speaker 1: it's politics, it's not religion. When it comes to Maduro.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know that many people really factor in how
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  Speaker 1: powerful a religious affiliation is. When you're fighting off a foe,
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  Speaker 1: You're not going to walk away from your fundamentalist religion.
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  Speaker 1: It's ingrained in you. I mean, I always ask my
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  Speaker 1: Christian friends, are you going to walk away from your
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  Speaker 1: faith at the point of a gun? Do you think
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  Speaker 1: some politician can convince you or talk you out of
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  Speaker 1: your faith? So faith coupled with you know, territorial you know,
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  Speaker 1: affiliation with region, those are two very powerful things. And
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  Speaker 1: you've got one element there that certainly it transcends politics
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  Speaker 1: and oil or commodities, doesn't it.
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Man, that couldn't have been a better analogy because
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  Speaker 2: that's exactly what's playing out here, and you can see
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  Speaker 2: it throughout the region, not even just within Iran, because
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  Speaker 2: you have a combination of nationalism rally around the flag
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  Speaker 2: and the religious aspect of Shia Islam. And then you
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  Speaker 2: see that there's rising support all this she is on
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  Speaker 2: that were just incensed when this the Iatolia was assassinated.
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  Speaker 2: Uh And so now you see katib Hezbola in Iraq
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  Speaker 2: rising up, you see Hisbola and Lebanon rising up. The
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  Speaker 2: houthis in the Red Sea now from from Yemen. They're
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  Speaker 2: rising up in support of the the regime, the regime
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  Speaker 2: that's left in Iran. And of course that there was
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  Speaker 2: a system in place. It was a hierarchical system. Uh,
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  Speaker 2: you know, it was a normal functioning government. It wasn't
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  Speaker 2: just a one man It wasn't a cult of personality,
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  Speaker 2: et cetera. And so now then we see it playing
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  Speaker 2: out as it was easily predictable, and so those who
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  Speaker 2: thought something different were just hopeful that's it, Well, maybe
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  Speaker 2: it'll work out this It wasn't based on evidence or
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  Speaker 2: research or understanding of the culture and the people. It
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  Speaker 2: was based on well, I hope it'll work out like
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  Speaker 2: this one. And unfortunately they appear to have carried the
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  Speaker 2: day with President Trump.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and you know, the protesters in the street, you know,
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  Speaker 1: is quite revealing. You think, oh my god, all these
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  Speaker 1: Iranians are willing to take to the street to protest
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  Speaker 1: the supremely they're putting their lives in jeopardy to do that.
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  Speaker 1: But a question is percentage of population willing to do that.
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  Speaker 1: Obviously much more dangerous to do it there than say,
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  Speaker 1: protests against Donald Trump here in the No King's Rally.
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  Speaker 1: But if there was media from elsewhere looking at the
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  Speaker 1: protests going on in the streets, they might draw a
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  Speaker 1: conclusion that, oh, my god, the United States is getting
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  Speaker 1: ready to be overthrown. Look at how many hundreds of
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  Speaker 1: thousands of people are in the streets in the United States.
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  Speaker 1: It's only a small percentage of the population. You can
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  Speaker 1: get fifteen people to show up literally anywhere, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: So there's that. But then pivoting over to what I
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  Speaker 1: think is a terrible idea, and I'm not the only
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  Speaker 1: one blowing up the desalination plants and the electric grid.
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  Speaker 1: Not only might that be a war crime, and I'll
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  Speaker 1: let others in familiar with international law know about that,
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  Speaker 1: but the civilian population they need that, and they're going
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  Speaker 1: to starve to death, and they're not going to be
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  Speaker 1: really happy with the United States if we blow up
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  Speaker 1: a lifeline to them, which is their ability to have
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  Speaker 1: the lights on and get fresh water.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I think that that analogy with the No
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  Speaker 2: King's Rally is hugely important because you had whatever was
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  Speaker 2: seven eight million across the country. A few of them
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  Speaker 2: were really big, and people could get the impression that
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  Speaker 2: look that they're all against President Trump. All we need
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  Speaker 2: to go in there is just help them out and
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  Speaker 2: they'll be able to overthrow them. The minute that anyone
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  Speaker 2: from outside our country comes in and drops a bomb
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  Speaker 2: or or does anything in our country allegedly in support
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  Speaker 2: of the people who were in the no real they
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  Speaker 2: would be in sense and they would immediately turn against
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  Speaker 2: that force, because that's not how our country works, It's
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  Speaker 2: not how human beings work. We can have our complaints inside,
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  Speaker 2: and that's exactly what happened. And I've talked to some
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  Speaker 2: of them, so I know for a fact people who
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  Speaker 2: were in those protests that were against their government. But
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  Speaker 2: they said, that's for us to figure out. The last
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  Speaker 2: thing we're going to do is rise up against it
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  Speaker 2: while you kill them and blow up all of our country.
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  Speaker 2: That's just not how it works. We rally around the flag,
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  Speaker 2: and we will and once this is over, we'll get
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  Speaker 2: back again to how we're going to handle our own governance.
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  Speaker 2: But to think that you're going to cause them to
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  Speaker 2: rise up because of bombs was always going to be
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  Speaker 2: a idea.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and perhaps it's worth at least saying it out loud,
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  Speaker 1: because I want to get your reaction. The Iranian people,
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  Speaker 1: let's say, not not happy with the with the regime,
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  Speaker 1: and they might enjoy regime change, of course that they
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  Speaker 1: bring in about themselves better than the merit relying on
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  Speaker 1: the Americans. But the other problem I would argue in
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  Speaker 1: this equation is perhaps the Iranian people are not happy
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  Speaker 1: with the Supreme leader in the way their country is run.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think most of them are really happy with
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  Speaker 1: the idea of even Israel, and since Israel's on the
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  Speaker 1: other side of the shooting war, they perceive Israel to
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  Speaker 1: be part of the problem. But that's the way they've
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  Speaker 1: had their viewpoint for a long time anyway. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: their their hatred toward Israel basically precedes this conflict. Well,
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  Speaker 1: it does.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, there's no question about that. And unfortunately, you know,
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  Speaker 2: there's understandable reasons why that would be because Israel has
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  Speaker 2: been you know, assassinating leaders in Iran, they've been blowing
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  Speaker 2: up their embassies, they've physically been attacking them for for decades.
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  Speaker 2: So I mean, this is mutual enmity. And then the
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  Speaker 2: Iranians will use proxies to try to strike back against Israel,
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  Speaker 2: et cetera. So this is just an ongoing, simmering thing.
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  Speaker 2: But yeah, that's even more reason why so many in
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  Speaker 2: Iran would stand up and say we're not gonna just
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  Speaker 2: capitulate to this no matter what, because this is now
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  Speaker 2: an existential threat. And you talked about President Trump's true
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  Speaker 2: social yesterday about taking out water, desalination and electricity everything
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  Speaker 2: that is, of course, is just going to harden their result.
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  Speaker 2: It's not gonna make them want to give up, and
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  Speaker 2: it would. It is black and white. It's a war
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  Speaker 2: crime if he does it. I suspect he's probably just
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  Speaker 2: used it rhetorically. I doubt he would actually do that,
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  Speaker 2: because then Iran would definitely strike back against our allies
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  Speaker 2: in the region hit the same kind of targets, and
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  Speaker 2: President Trump doesn't want that either, So I suspect that
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  Speaker 2: that's just rhetorical. But all of this together is just
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  Speaker 2: hardening the resolve of the Uranian side. And now then
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  Speaker 2: we have an issue where the price of oil is
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  Speaker 2: so high you can't get feedstocks out for all kinds
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  Speaker 2: of things like helium, agricultural stuff. I mean, he's using
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  Speaker 2: problems all over the world, and we have got to
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  Speaker 2: get this thing sold pretty quick.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and to that and solved to reopen the Straight
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  Speaker 1: of Horror Moves. Seems to be the one thing that
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  Speaker 1: would you know, end this back up of supplies. They're
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  Speaker 1: all sitting there floating around in boats. The rest of
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  Speaker 1: the world is waiting for that stuff. So opening the
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  Speaker 1: Straight of Horror Moves, if that was the military objective,
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  Speaker 1: we could just pull the plug on the whole thing.
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  Speaker 1: If the Strait of Horror Mooves got reopened, that may
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  Speaker 1: be okay, But right now that doesn't look like it's
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  Speaker 1: gonna happen. It will remain in the control of the
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  Speaker 1: Iranians and the current scenarios we can we pull out
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  Speaker 1: before quote unquote securing the Strait of Horror Moves and
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  Speaker 1: even call this something of a victory.
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  Speaker 2: Well, listen, according to the Wall Street Journal last night,
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  Speaker 2: the administration is now considering, you know what, we'll just
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  Speaker 2: we're just gonna walk away and say we've damaged their navy,
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  Speaker 2: we've damaged their missiles, and we'll come back and do
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  Speaker 2: it again if we need to, and try to diplomatically
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  Speaker 2: get it on to open up. And if that fails,
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  Speaker 2: according to the article interviewing people in the administration, then
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  Speaker 2: we'll say all right, you're a you guys got to
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  Speaker 2: figure this out, you know, the asia of you guys
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  Speaker 2: who need the stuff, y'all figured it out diplomatically, but
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  Speaker 2: we're not going to and I don't know that that's
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  Speaker 2: a good plan. And then this morning, just before about
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  Speaker 2: an hour ago, I guess President Trump seemed to indicate
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  Speaker 2: that by saying, Hey, France, Hey UK, you guys didn't
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  Speaker 2: help when we had to, so we may just walk
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  Speaker 2: away and you can take care of it. So that
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  Speaker 2: seems to maybe actually be the plan here, But listen
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  Speaker 2: to the bottom line is Iran is not We don't
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  Speaker 2: have the military capacity to force them to open it
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  Speaker 2: up because there's too many ways they can have it
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  Speaker 2: shut down. So whatever is negotiated, it's gonna leave Iran
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  Speaker 2: in charge of it, and they have incentive to open
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  Speaker 2: it up, and I think under the right conditions they
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  Speaker 2: will and that will help the rest of the world.
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  Speaker 2: But man, it's gonna be a strategic loss for us,
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  Speaker 2: and you can't doctor that one up. No.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, I acknowledge that hitting the carg Island
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  Speaker 1: facility might do the most economic damage to Iran, but
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  Speaker 1: is that even a viable option considering how many world
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  Speaker 1: countries and everybody else relies on that facility to get
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  Speaker 1: fossil fuels well.
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  Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean it's a double waving. There's the
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  Speaker 2: reason why we took sanctions off Iran, and not only
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  Speaker 2: Iran but also on Russia because we need the flow
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  Speaker 2: of what we need the flow of oil up to
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  Speaker 2: keep the price down below and you see it's already
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  Speaker 2: turnding over one hundred dollars I think one twelve point
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  Speaker 2: fifteen on Brenth this morning, and we've got to get
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  Speaker 2: that down. You strike carg Island now that you diminished
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  Speaker 2: the amount of well that can get out, so it
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  Speaker 2: would undercut the sanctions. And then there's no question that
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  Speaker 2: Iran would then strike the GCC country's capabilities and draw
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  Speaker 2: it even further down. So I don't think that. I
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  Speaker 2: think that's a non starter because it would harm us
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  Speaker 2: in the process.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of the direction I thought you would go,
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  Speaker 1: because that's where I was leaning. And then finally, Daniel
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  Speaker 1: David Story Park Company. I know we're a little long today,
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  Speaker 1: but I got to ask you, literally thousands of tankers
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  Speaker 1: and container ships floating around waiting to get through the
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  Speaker 1: straight of horror moves right. I mean they have global
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  Speaker 1: tracking on that. They're just sitting there waiting correct, that
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  Speaker 1: is correct. Are those not easy targets themselves?
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  Speaker 2: Of course, definitely, And that's why early in this process,
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  Speaker 2: Iran demonstrated how easy they were by just hitting I
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  Speaker 2: think it was like seven or eight of them, something
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  Speaker 2: like that, to just show that at any point I
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  Speaker 2: can just torch any of these things and they're done.
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  Speaker 2: So if you want to work with us, come through.
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  Speaker 2: And there's been some numbers, not a big number, but
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  Speaker 2: it's a number it's able to get through. So they're saying, hey,
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  Speaker 2: you can work with me, you can work against me,
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  Speaker 2: but it won't work out well for you.
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  Speaker 1: Suspiciously absent from the reporting. I acknowledge that idea that
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  Speaker 1: they are easily blown up out of the water, which
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  Speaker 1: could be a real problem. Daniel Davis always enjoyed the conversations,
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  Speaker 1: even though we don't always end up with great news.
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  Speaker 1: It's reality and I appreciate the cold water dose of
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  Speaker 1: it that you provide every week here in the morning show. Sir,
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  Speaker 1: until next week, have a great one.