Latest / Toadstool Sports / THURSDAY BEST BETS | NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 & MLB Opening Day & NHL & NBA | 3/26/26

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THURSDAY BEST BETS | NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 & MLB Opening Day & NHL & NBA | 3/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: next have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins archhape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I can possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five the worst month
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump series, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. Some guys is sewed back with you with
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Toastal Sports at his Thursday, March twenty sixth We got
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: a lot to get to here. It's official MLB opening day.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: We have a lot of baseball here. We have Sweet
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: sixteen in the Marsh Madness Tournament. Big NHL board today,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: small NBA board, and I'm gonna give out three plays here.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Two of them are gonna be in baseball, and these
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: baseball ones. You know how I do baseball, Like I'm
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: getting I have a bunch of different ways that I
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: attack these baseball games. I don't really do that in
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: other sports. But you'll see what I want to do
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: with baseball here. And then what else is they even
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: gonna say? I'm gonna have one play in hockey, I
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: believe as well. So nothing in the Sweet sixteen. Nothing
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: on this NBA board, which is pretty ugly. We pushed
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: on the one play that I gave out yesterday and
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the under in the Yankees and San Francisco. If you
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: had told me that out of the eighteen frames of
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: baseball we were gonna get yesterday, runs were scored in
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: two of the eighteen, I would have been like, yeah,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: that's going under, no question. No. Because the Yankees put
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: up a five spot in the top of the second,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Logan Webb. Even though Aaron Judge did nothing
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: yet again big games, he just kind of disappears. He
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: was zero for five with four strikeouts. I think, whatever,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: But Yankees put up a five spot. At that point,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: You're like, this thing is over. It's dead. And then
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the Yankees score two more on the top of the fifth,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: which made it seven, and then somehow we were able
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: to manage no more runs for the rest of the game.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: The rest of the game we got the push on it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: If you somehow got a seven and a half, you
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: won on it. Although I saw seven and a half's
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: out there in a couple of books. But we had
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to lay like minus one thirty five on it, which
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: I would not recommend it. But if you did that,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: you did win. But the way that went, I mean,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm fine with a push. I kind of
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: think it was the right call, but yeah, I mean whatever,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: We'll move on to today. It was a nothing day.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Let's get into today. Man, We're gonna start with baseball
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: because it is in the afternoon, so I gotta do
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: this chronologically because everything else is nighttime. We do have
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: NBC and Peacock with an afternoon game for some reason,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: between the much hyped Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Paul Skimes pitching for Pittsburgh. Here, the Mets will have
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: their newcomer Freddy Peralta making his debut for the Mets. Now,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I think that when a guy makes his debut for
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: a new team, I think he actually tends to do
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: well and gets pumped up for that start. So I
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: actually think both pitchers are probably gonna do pretty well here.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I mean Paul Schemes. It's not going out on a
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: limb to say he's gonna do well. But you do
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: have to see what are their numbers against the opponents here.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: The Mets have twenty five at bats against Schemes throughout
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: their line up here, not a lot of experience against him.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: He's helped them to a two forty average six five ops,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: so pretty good for him. Freddy Peralta has been in
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: the league for a lot longer. He's good though. He
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: was Milwaukee's ace last year, and he is making the
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: opening day start for the Mets here as their new pitcher.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: He's been I was gonna say he's been good against Pittsburgh.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: That was against the Mets. He actually dominates the Mets,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: but he doesn't get to do that because he's on
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: their team. His numbers against Pittsburgh are not as good
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: as you might think. Pittsburgh is very familiar with him
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: because they were he was pitching in their division. Still,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: they have a two thirty five average against it, which
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: is low. Brian Reynolds really does a lot of damage
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: against him, but really nobody else in the lineup does so.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: If he's able to just get around him, he actually
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: pitches well against everybody else, including Ozoon. He's allowed a
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: seven to eleven OPS against him, which still isn't really
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: that high. Looking at what the market is doing in
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: this game, the Mets dropped from minus one to twenty
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: five to might just one sixteen. Fifty six percent of
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Pittsburgh and seventy eight percent of
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Mets. I think if I was
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: gonna play this game, I would play the Mets. I'm
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it. But Peralta, even though his numbers
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: are a little bit worse than Schemes, he's not as
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: he's probably not as talented as Schmes, but he could.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I think he can match Schemes well enough here to
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: get us into the later portions of the game. And
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: then the Mets have the advantage in the other aspects
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: of this game. And the Mets have the better offense,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the Mets have the better bullpen. The Mets really kind
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: of trailed off down the stretch last year, so people
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: are just not on them right now. Everybody just wants, oh,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: everybody sees Paul Schemes, let's bet Paul Skins. Well, no,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: because even though the starting pitching is a big aspect,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: you don't want to weigh it too much. And the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Mets have the advantage in the other phases of the game,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. And Prault is not that
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: much worse than Schemes. So I'm gonna lean to the
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Mets in that game. Money line. I'm kind of surprised
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh is a public side there. I can't believe
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: how hyped they are this year, man, really like, I
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: don't see them being that improved. Kyle, what's up man?
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out and schemes. Is only going to
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: pitch once every five games, and probably you know, six
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: or seven innings worth in most of those games, because
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: we're not in the old days anymore' pitchers pitch a lot.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Next game up. A lot of these games are on MLBtv,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: which is that I don't know. That's not the same
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: as MLB Network. I guess because these games are all
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: on at the same time. I think Disney might own MLBtv.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I gotta go see if that means, because I have
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the Disney plus all encompassing thing with ESPN. I wonder
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: if that includes that. I guess it doesn't, because the
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Texas Philly game is listed as ESPN Unlimited, so I
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: will have that one, but I don't have MLBtv. But
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: of course you can find this. I'm not supposed to
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: say it, but you can find ways of watching these
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: White Sox at Brewers. Brewers are gonna be a huge
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: favorite here, But I don't know, man, this is a
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: hard game to read. You got Shane Smith pitching for
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. I mean, he was probably their best
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: pitcher last year, My guy from Danvers, mass Here. He
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: had a pretty good season last year all things considered.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: But he does give up some hard contact, which might
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: not be that good against a Brewers lineup. That is
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the Brewers lifetime. They don't have a
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: lot of at bats fourteen at bats him two eighty
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: six average, seven to sixty nine ops is getting a
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: little bit in the higher range there. So Smith not
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a lot to go on with him there though, So
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not ready to say he's going to be bad
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: or good in this game necessarily. Miss Zierowski, who I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: forgot his name when I did my MLB breakdown, I
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: apologize the miss lay. Miss Jacob Mizerowski pitching for the Brewers.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, he throws one hundred miles an hour. He's
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: super talented, but he got really wild and kind of
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: fell off last year after he looked good in a
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: couple of starts and then he didn't do as well
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: after that. But he does have the talent to be
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: pretty elite. Got to get that wildness under control. But
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the advantage he has here is the White Sox pretty
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: much have never seen him before. Austin Hayes has won
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: it bad against him and actually did single off of
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: him apparently, but other than that, basically the White Sox
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: have never faced him before. In their lineup is weak,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: so you know, I talk about that when a pitcher
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: has never been seen for by the opposing lineup, they
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: that's a big advantage to them. So miss does have
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: a pretty big advantage here. The Brewers have the better offense.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I'd say they probably have the better bullpen. We have
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: to see what happens during the season though, because I'm
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: just going based off of last year's numbers right now.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the Brewers are the better team, but obviously
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: that's why they're favored. Let me see here, Uh, they're
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: down for minus one ninety five to minus one seventy
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: five on the money line though eighty one percent of
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the tickets ninety six percent of the cash on Milwaukee.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: This is a really, really difficult game to gauge. I
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: don't want to touch this game, to be honest. I'm
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: thinking maybe first five inning under or something like that
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: could be an approach here. Total dropped a bit from
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to eight. The money is coming
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: in on the under, so you've kind of missed a
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: little bit. But eight, eight and a half are kind
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: of dead numbers in baseball. Seven is a key number,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: nine is a key number. So you know, if you
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: went under eight, I would not, well, you go under
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: eight in the full game. But I think first five
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: is better because I don't trust really either of these
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: bullpens and up necessarily, although like I said yesterday, early season,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the pitchers do have an advantage usually, so I think
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: games do tend to go under a little bit more
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: because hitters just don't have their timing yet. Whatever. But
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: here we have two at least decent pictures that the
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: offenses are not as familiar with. So first five inning
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: under and not dealing with the bullpens kind of makes
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: sense there. Washington at Cubs, Washington is in such a
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: bad situation that their opening day starter is Cade Cavali.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, man, maybe it'll be better because he
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: has this handlebar mustache thing going on. He looks like
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: he should be in a bare knuckle boxing match. You know,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: just take your shirt off, you know, go back into
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the nineteen twenties, you know, box, some irishmen whatever, because
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's to do well pitching wise. But
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: he does have one advantage here, and that is the
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Cubs have never faced a before, so that's an advantage
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: usually for a pitcher. But I don't know if I
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: trust a guy who's twenty seven years old, basically entered
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the league last year and put up an almost one
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: and a half whip last year. I mean, that is
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: not good. So even though the Cubs haven't seen him before,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: they could also potentially hit him. He's going up against
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd, who I think, really honestly kind of overperformed
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: last year. I mean, you usually don't see a guy
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: like him who's in his mid thirties and then all
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: of a sudden he has like some elite season. It
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: just doesn't make any sense. So I think he might
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: regress a little bit. But he had a really good
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: season last year. Maybe the Cubs, you know, they're pitching coaching,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: maybe found something with him. I don't know. And he's
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: facing a pretty bad line up here with the Nats,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: although they actually aren't that bad against him. Thirty two
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: at bats, two fifty average is a very good but
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: seven sixty three ohps is all right, but that's mostly
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: just because there's one home run mixed in there from Lyle.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not touching this game. But let me
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: see here we have the Cubs are minus two eighteen. Now,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: they're a heavily public side, ninety four percent of tickets,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on them. I mean, yeah,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: it's it's a difficult game to gauge. I mean, I'm
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be honest. I think you could maybe look at
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Washington first five innings on the run line or something
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to keep it close in the first five innings. That
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: would still worry me, but you might have a little
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: bit of an advantage there just because Cavali is an unknown.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: But this Washington team they're bad. They're real bad. So yeah,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, but that's not a handicapping technique,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Like the fact that they're
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: bad is factored into the line. That's why they're a
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: massive underdog. So those are my thoughts on that. Minnesota
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore. Joe Ryan is still on Minnesota and is
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: still their best pitcher. He's good, I mean, not much
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: to say about that. He's definitely a good pitcher, you know,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: usually I consider him to be a bet on type
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: of pitcher. Orioles have thirty one at bats against him.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: He's telling him to have two twenty six average at
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: six forty nine ops. Ryan's done well against them throughout
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: his career. He's going up against Trevor Rodgers, who I
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: believe was injured prior to last year, and the Orioles
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: seem to have found something with him last year because
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: his numbers in his career just never impressed me. I
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: think he was on the Marlins earlier in his career.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: On whatever. Last year, he had a really good season.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: It was only a partial season, so it might be
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading, but he pitched really well for
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Baltimore last year, so something to considered there. I just
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: don't I don't know what we're gonna get out of
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: him exactly here, going up against Minnesota, they have fourteen
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, and their numbers look really good
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: because they have a fort to twenty nine average and
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: one thousand ops against him, But almost all of the
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: at bats are Josh Bell. In fact, all but one
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: at bats Josh Bell, so Minnesota basically has never faced
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: him before outside of Bell. Bell was on Washington last year.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I believe Bell is definitely good. Good pick. That's one
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: good I forgot to mention that in my season preview
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: that was one of the best acquisitions for the Twins
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: over the offseason was Bell. He's a good power hitter,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: but he's only going to get so many of bats,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So I think Rogers might
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: do okay here. Even those numbers don't look good against Minnesota,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: it's because Bell just wrecks him. Baltimore is sitting at
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty five down for minus one fifty five,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of the cash
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: on Baltimore. Tough game to read here for me on
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: this one too. Man. You know, I could see first
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: five under in this one too, if you want to
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: bank on both pitchers doing decent here. And I'm not
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: convinced that either lineup is really that good. I don't
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: like the bullpens. Both bullpens were pretty bad last year,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: so taking them out of the equation. Both these games,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about the first five under, you're probably looking
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: at maybe going under four the Washington one. Maybe Washington
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: was there was a run line. My mistake, but yeah,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: this one and then the Brewers game, I think is
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the other one I mentioned. You're probably getting a decent
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: number on the first five inning under a four. I
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: don't know if you'd see four and a half, but
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: obviously look at what the juice is that you're paying
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: on those numbers too. Next up is gonna be the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: first player that I have, and I don't like it
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: man as a as a Red Sox fan, so you
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: probably know where I'm going with this. Let me see here.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure I have the I haven't
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: added the banners yet. I want to make sure I
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: have the right numbers here. I'm doing something a little
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: bit different on this one. If you want to go
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: just run just money line on this, you could do
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: that too, But we're gonna go Cincinnati Reds. You might
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: be able to find a plus one run line out there,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: but I didn't see it anymore like I used to
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: see them at fd DK, like they used to have
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the plus one and minus one run line. So I
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: don't see them anymore on there. Maybe they just move
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: them somewhere. I don't know. But you could do this
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: too and make your own and do a split bet here.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm gonna do here. We're gonna take Cincinnati
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half runs at minus one twenty
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: five for about two thirds of the bet or so,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: and then the rest of the bet on the money
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: line at plus one thirty five. I could show the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: breakdown on this too. It comes out to plus one
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: oh four on this if you want to do it
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: out of one hundred fifty three or so of that
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: would be on the minus one twenty five portion of
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: it to win forty two and a half whatever, and
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: then forty two whatever goes on the other part of it.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: If that makes sense. That's the breakdown on this one.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're gonna fade the Red Sox. We're gonna
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: fade Garrett Crochet. I know it's something that nobody's gonna
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: want to do. The Red Sox are a public side,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: cash on them. Crochet down for minus one sixty minus
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: one fifty one here or the Red Sox. Sorry I
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: should say now, the Red Sox are the better team.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that they're not. They are, but
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: you know, I think the hitting you give the edge
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to the Red Sox a little bit. You give the
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: bullpen inch to the Red Sox a little bit. So, yeah,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox do actually have a slight edge in
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: every phase of the game, starting pitching, hitting, bullpen. I
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: just don't think the edge is that significant one way
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: or the other. And if you dig into the starting
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup, it's not as lopsided as it might look
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: on the It's not as lopside as you might think.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Because everybody knows Garret Crochet. Now, yeah, he's an elite pitcher,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: and we know this. Andrew Abbott, people still don't really
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: know who he is. He's not a name pitcher, but
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: he's been around for a few years. He's really good. Actually, Crochet,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: obviously we know he's one of the best pitchers in baseball.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: We don't have to talk about that. But against Cincinnati,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: he's actually not that good. Thirty at bats. I mean
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: it's not a huge sample. A ten to two strike
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is good, but three hundred average allowed
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: against him, forty four ops so Curchet's usually dominant numbers,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: they're not as good against the Reds lineup. Meanwhile, we
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: go and we look at Andrew Abbott here, who is
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: a lefty by the way, which you might give other
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Red Sox some issues, although they did add some right
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: handed bats over the off season there, I believe Durbin
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: and Contreras are both right handed bats. And speaking of Contrera's,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: is it wait, is his name Contreras. I'm los seeing
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: William Contreraz and I'm like, wait, his name's not Contrera's.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: It's yeah, it is Wilson. I get them confused, dude,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: William Wilson. All right, Uh yeah, So Contreras is familiar
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: with the Abbot because he was on the Cardinals, so
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: he was in this division. Soul was Durbin. But Durbin's
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: zero for five often lifetime. Contreras is a mediocre three
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: for eleven, although he does have five walks against Abbot.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: But if you take those five walks out overall, I mean,
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: these numbers are not good for the Red Sox against Abbot.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: They have forty two at bats off them a one
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to sixty seven average and six sixty seven ops against him,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: so he's held them pretty much down. Man. So I
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: actually like Abbott to keep the Reds in this game
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: here and keep this game close. That's what I think
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: is gonna happen. So, yeah, we are gonna take the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Reds split bet run line, money line here in this
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: all red matchup, Red's Red Sox and Terry Frankcona against
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Man, that's what we're gonna do. It's
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: a rare matchup there. The Red Sox don't face the
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Reds very often so and it is a hitting friendly park,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: although so is Fenway Park. So you know, Crochet, I
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna be that thrown off by pitching
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: in any ballpark, you know, So I'm not worried about
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: that for him. But yeah, we're gonna go. Yeah, we're
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: going full game on that, even though a lot of
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: that has to do with the pitching matchup there. I
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: just think that the edge of the Red Sox have
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: is not as big as people might think that it is.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Next game up is my other play, So let me
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: get that into the banners here. This one's gonna be
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: a total. So it's gonna be boring, of course, because
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: you know that means it's gonna be an under. I
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: don't always play the unders. I don't always play unders,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: but when I do, I win more often than I lose.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: How about that we're gonna go Actually, sorry, this is
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: a first five inning under under four in the full game.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: What I have to add that? Yeah, first five innings
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: under in Anaheim Houston. I saw mostly four and a
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: halfs out there. But the price on the four and
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: a half is like minus one twenty five. If you
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: want to play it that way, you can, but I
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: just kind of preferred grabbing the four at plus one hundred.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: It's a cheaper price, and then of course if it
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: lands for you know, it will be a push. But
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: I'm alright with that. I actually like this starting pitching matchup,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: believing or not. Jose Soriano's pitching for Anaheim. His number
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: stunk last year, So what am I doing with Jse
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Soriano here? Well, if you dig into his splits from
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: last year. I remember this from last year because his
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: splits were so extreme it was ridiculous. He had a
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: five point nine ERA at home last year, which is
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: gone awful. But he's on the road today and his
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: road ERA last year was two point nine to one,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: so he was really good on the road. And this
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: is also I don't know if we consider this a
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: day game or not, because it's at four to ten pm.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I guess it'll be at three ten pm where they are.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: So he was actually better in the day two for
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: what that's worth, by about a run on his ZRA.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: So this is like the best scenario. A road day
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: game for Soriano was the best scenario for him last year.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: He does still have okay stuff, and of course you
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: know that if I'm recommending this as a play, he's
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: got to have good numbers against Houston. He does. They
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: have forty six at bats against him. The strikeout walk
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: ratio isn't good fifteen to seven. I don't like that,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: but Altuve has three of the walks, so you know
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: he probably is kind of pitched around him a little bit,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: so that makes it a little bit more palatable. But
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: what makes it really palatable is the fact that he's
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: held used into a one ninety six batting average of
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: five to eighty four ops the hitters that they have.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: So Soriano sets up pretty well in this matchup. And
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: he's going up against Hunter Brown, who is one of
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the top pitchers in the Astros rotation. Really good stuff
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: out of Brown, even when he had like some blips
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: last year. A lot of it was kind of around
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: when he got named to the All Star team, I
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: think for the first time and whatever. And against Anaheim,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not good anyway, but he's good against them.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: In sixty four at bats. It is too many walks
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: again on this side, sixteen to seven strike out walk ratio,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: but he telled them to a one seventy two batting
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: average five ninety seven ops. So the starting pitchers here,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: I think both set up really well in this game.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're going with under in the first
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: five innings in Angels Astros here, we'll take the bullpens out.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, La Anaheim their bullpen is awful, or at
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: least last year it was, so we'll just throw them out,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: don't deal with it. Houston's bullpen was fine, but you know,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: we'll take them out as well, and they had a
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: lot of injuries in their bullpen at the end of
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the season. But instead of dealing with that, we'll focus
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: on where I think we have the biggest advantage, and
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: that is the first five inning under. All Right, we
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: got Detroit and San Diego on MLB Network, so this
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: one is actually on TV, probably because the biggest name
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: pitchers get the TV games. Man Schemes gets a TV
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: game and school Ball gets a TV game, and they're
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: both the names starting with sk school Ball pitching for Detroit.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think we need to say much about him.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: He's probably the best pitcher in baseball. He just quit
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the World Baseball Classic, which maybe that's a good thing.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe it's not good that he didn't
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: get those games under his belt, but maybe it means
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: he focused on the major league season. I don't know,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: but I'm not too worried about him anyway, you know,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, you pretty much know what you're gonna get
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: out of him. He's consistent, he's really good. He's pitching
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: at a very picture friendly park here in San Diego.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Good numbers against them to fifty four at bats, nineteen
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: to five strikeout walk ratio, a lot of strikeouts one
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: sixty seven average, a lot five fifty two obs. So
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: he's pretty much burned through the Padres lineup. So that's good.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: But obviously all that's gonna be factored into the line here.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: And that's what I don't love about this. That's why
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I like these under the radar unders a little bit
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: more like Soriano Brown. People don't even really know him
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: that well. But people are not gonna be looking at
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: that game. I just gave out as an under, like
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: they might be looking at this game. Nick Pivetta is
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: pitching for San Diego. Decent pitcher. He had a good
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: season last year with San Diego, though, I think pitching
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: in this picture friendly park definitely helped him. And that's
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: where they are tonight, of course, or today. His numbers
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: against Detroit or good too, seventy one at bats, so
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: they've seen him a lot and he's done well against them,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: twenty four to six, strike a walk ratio one ninety
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: seven average allowed, six twelve ops allowed. So you know,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play this game, an under does
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: make sense. I'm not gonna say that it doesn't. Detroit
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: seven for minus one thirty five to minus one thirty
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: on the money line, seventy percent of tickets, ninety five
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on on Detroit. Here. I don't
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: see much as far as the side. I mean, you know,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Schooble is going to be a public side, so I
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: don't know if I would agree with playing that side. Really,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good gauge on the side, I
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: still probably do lean under here, but you're looking at
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: a seven, which you know makes sense in a matchup
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: like this. I'm actually kind of surprised it's not six
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: and a half. The money looks like it's coming in
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: in the over though, believe it or not, here fifty
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets on the under sixty nine percent
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. That does surprise me.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Uh So, I don't know what's going on with that,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: but I think when you got scooball on the mound,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's you know, you're kind of on a
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: razor's edge there with the with the unders, I mean,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I still like it. Like I think if you forced
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: me to give you a play on this game, I
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: think I would go full game under the seven here. Uh.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: San Diego's bullpen was very good last year. I don't
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: really see that changing much. Detroit's bullpen, I think is
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: all right as well. So and it's a picture friendly
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: park kind of similar to last night, But this one,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to give it out as an
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: actual play. But those are my thoughts on that. If
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: you want me to talk about the side in any
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: of these other games, because I know, I kind of
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: skipped it with Anaheim Houston. Houston's down to minus one
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: seventy three. They're super public, ninety percent of tickets, ninety
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Houston. So there might
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: be some value with Anaheim in that game, even though
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: they're not the better team. You know, maybe it's too
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: much of a price on Houston there. And Soriano, like again,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: that matchup that set up for him is a lot
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: better than people would think that it is, So all right,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: I think did I? I talked about the side in every
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: other game, right, Like, I don't know. I have some
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: stronger feelings on some of the totals though, Josh, what's
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: up man? The nets? I don't even know what was that.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember who they were playing last night
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: that I don't know. That was the type of game
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: I did not want any involvement. And you don't know
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: what you're gonna get out of these teams late in
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the NBA season when they're out of it. You got
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: to try to gauge, like how motivated they're gonna be.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: And I know I've given out some plays on some
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: of those teams, and the last couple actually won, But yeah,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know. You gotta get I think you gotta
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: get really picky with it all right. This ESPN Unlimited
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: game here with Texas and Philadelphia, I mean, it's an
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: interesting one. The pitching matchup is really good in this one,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: which again is probably why it's on ESPN Unlimited. Texas
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: was a really good pitching team last year, hitting not
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: so much. Philly obviously has the better offense here. Texas
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: has a better pitching, so it's kind of that typical
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: pitching versus hitting. He except that Christopher Sanchez is a
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: really good pitcher for Philly too. Texas probably has the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, if last year is any indication. Nathany Evald
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: he's pitching for the Rangers. I don't remember what his
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: splits were like last year, but I'm guessing he pitched
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: better at home, because yeah, actually he didn't. He was
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: actually better on the road, believe it or not, because
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: texas Is Stadium was actually pretty pitcher friendly last year.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: But he actually pitched well on the road last year too,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: So my mistake there against the Phillies. His numbers are
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: pretty good in sixty two at bats, eighteen to five
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: strike out walk race year two forty two average allowed
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: seven O two ops is getting a little bit high,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: but overall pretty good numbers here. The majority of these
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: at bats are all from Bryce Harper, who does hit
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: him fairly well. But if you can pitch around Harper
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: he might do all right. In this matchup here, he's
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: going up against Sanchez, who did have a good season
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: last year, a career year for him last year. He's
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: he's pretty good up against Texas. His numbers are actually
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: not very good though, in sixty two at best, twelve
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: to six strikeout walk ratio is not very good. Some
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: of this includes the new bats that Texas picked up
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: UH two ninety batting average allowed seven to forty ops allowed.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: None of that is really that good, so you know
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: there might be some value looking towards Texas in this
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: one man. The money is coming in on Philadelphia and
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: of course again Philly. The biggest advantage they have is
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: the offense, but Texas probably still has the better bullpen
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: and starting pitching wise. E Evaldi actually has better matchup
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: numbers here. Sixty four percent of the tickets ninety two
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Philly, Philly down for minus
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: one fifty five to minus one fifty two. I'm gonna
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: be honest, if I was gonna play this game, I
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: would actually probably lean towards Texas, maybe do what I
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: did in the other game, do like a split bet
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: run line money line situation. I think you might be
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit of value on the Rangers here, man,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: because people overvalue hitting and that's Philly's big advantage here.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: And you know, Texas may be a little bit under
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: the radar this year because they're pitching is actually pretty good.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: So we'll see nets were ahead into the last three
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: minutes the game. How much do they lose by? They
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: must have been a big underdog. How could they not
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: cover that? That's a yeah, that's definitely some bullshit. There.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Sounds like you were on the right side. And that one.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and Saint Louis, this one is interesting. Now.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I don't have to point out yet that, by the way,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, because this game is not in Tampa Bay.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: But when we get to the Tampa Bay home games,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: they're playing in the trop again. The trop hurricane damage
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: has been fixed. I think basically there's they put a
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: new roof on the thing and they're like, all right,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: you're good to go. So Tampa will be playing in
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Tropic Canna Field again this year, so they'll maybe have
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit more home advantage than they did last
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: year when they were playing in Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: spring training stadium. And we won't have like extreme overs
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: in the Tampa Bay home games anymore, which we kind
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: of did last year in that more hitter friendly park
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: that's designed to have the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: They're only three point underdog, all right. I would have
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: thought there would have been more, but I know the
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Warriors are like really injured. I'm guessing that game was
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: at Brooklyn. I don't know. I probably I talked about
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: it on my show, yes, and I don't remember anything
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: that I said. Drew Rasmussen is pitching in this game
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: against Matthew Libertore. Rasmussen had a really good season last year. Now,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: what the Rays did with him last year is they
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: really managed his pitch count, Like they started taking him
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: out after about five innings, So he became the guy that,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: like you wanted to play on him in the first
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: five innings because you knew he was gonna give you
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: like five solid innings. Then they take him out of
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the game and then it's kind of like everything else
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: is up in the air. I don't know if that's
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be the case this year or not. Against the Cardinals.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: The card are gonna be I think, pretty epically bad
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: this year, to be honest, They're gonna be bad. Uh.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: The Cardinals only have three hitters who have ever faced
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen before fourteen at bats against him, and they have
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: no hits against him and no walks, four strikeouts. So
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals don't have a hitter who's even reached base
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: against Rasmussen before this. Rasmusten, he's playing. He's playing hard
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: to get man. No, nobody can't even get to get
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: to first base with this guy. Come on, just just
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: to allow me a little like, you know, a little
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: makeout sessh come on, Drew. Uh. So he does have
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: good numbers against the Cardinals. Lebra Torre had kind of
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: a wild season last year that was a bit all
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: over the place. I'm not really sold on him, but
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: his numbers against the Rays are pretty good. They only
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: have one hit off him in fifteen at bats. So
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: these pitchers combined have allowed one hit to these opposing lineups.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: This is in fifteen at bats. I think I said
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: O sixty seven average allowed, two forty three ohps, A lot.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: He's a lot a couple of in there. I mean,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: I think first five under is probably my opinion in
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't want to touch it. But you know,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: you got, yeah, like two pitchers that are not that
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: familiar to the opposing hitters. The offenses are really not
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: that great on either side necessarily. I think the pitchers
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of an advantage here in
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup. I don't know what to expect
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpens, although Tampa's was actually fairly good
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: last year. Cardinals maybe not so much. If you wanted
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: to go full game on this because you can get
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: under that key number seven and a half, you could
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: do that too. Under first five makes sense to me
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: in this one. But you might have to go under
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: three and a half in this one. But it does
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: also make sense to me. Although we see money on
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the over here, which does warn me a little bit.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Sixty five percent of tickets and ninety six percent of
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over that concerns me a little
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: bit for sure. All Right, we have Arizona and the
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Dodgers in Peacock, and of course it's another big name
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: pitcher here, Yamamoto pitching for the Dodgers here. Unfortunately for
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks, they have no pitching and uh, they're going
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: with Zach Gallen in their opener here. They re signed him.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: I think, uh, he did not have a great season
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: last year, although I actually think he's better than what
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: his numbers looked like last year, Like he had better
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: numbers in previous seasons than what he did last year.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: So I don't think he's that bad. But I don't
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna you know, I mean, obviously he doesn't
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: have an easy matchup here against the best line up
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: in baseball, the Dodgers, who are really good on offense
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: at home, Gallon's numbers are not very good. They have
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: a ton of at bats against in one sixty five,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: so they're very familiar with him. They have a two
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: seventy three average off him, which isn't that good, but
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: a seven to seventy nine ops is a little bit high.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Forty five to eighteen strike out walker ratio, it's a
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: lot of walks, so the Dodgers don't really struggle to
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: get on base against this guy to get hits off him. Yamamoto, obviously, say,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: has the edge here. He is the better pitcher overall
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: against the d Backs. He does have really good numbers
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: as well, and seventy five at bats, so they're pretty
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: familiar with them. They still haven't been able to really
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: hit him. Twenty six to six strike up walk ratio
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: one forty seven average allowed four fifty ops. That's very
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: very good stuff there for Sorry, I clicked on women's
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: college basketball though, which is back in action tomorrow, by
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: the way, in their sweet sixteen, I believe, But yes,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Yamamota has really good numbers. He obviously has an advantage here.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers have the better hitting the bullpens. Both of
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: these bullpens were ass last year, so you know, probably
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: not much of an advantage one way or the other there.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Dodgers I think are the biggest favorite on the board today. Probably, Yeah,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: they're up to minus two fifty. Very public though, ninety
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of the cash
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: on the Dodgers. You know, if you wanted to lay
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the run line on this one with the Dodgers minus
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: one and a half, I wouldn't really be opposed to it, like,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I just don't see Arizona being able to win this game.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Perhaps the better approach, though, because you have a pretty
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: high total at nine, the better approach might be to
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: go over the Dodgers team total. They you're gonna be
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: asking him to score maybe even six runs in the
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: game if you do that. But that might be the
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: way that I would go in this one. But I
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: worry about that because it's one of these early season games,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: you know, where the pitchers tend to have a little
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: bit of an advantage. But if anybody's gonna be able
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: to do it, it should be the Dodgers at home,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: and it's a fairly weak pitching Arizona team. And then
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: a game that I don't think is gonna be high
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: scoring is at the very pitcher friendly Seattle Cleveland. At
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Seattle Cleveland, we know they're not very good offensively. Their
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: bullpen was actually fairly good last year. At Seattle, we
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: know they're a really good pitching team. This game looks
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: like it's gonna be pretty pitcher Having to me, Tanner
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Biby is pitching for the Indians, I'm gonna still call
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: them the Indian here. He didn't have a great season
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: last year, but he did start turning it on again
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. Cleveland still considers him
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: to be their ace, and you know, I don't really
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: see a reason why he shouldn't be considered that. It's
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: not like he's the best pitcher out there, but I
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: do think he's better than what he looked like for
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the majority of last year. He's getting a pitcher friendly
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: ballpark here to pitch in. Against Seattle, He's got good
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: numbers against him in forty five at bats eleven strikeouts,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: three walks, two hundred batting average six to sixty five ops.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: So Biby has done well against the Mariners lineup in general.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Logan Gilbert, and you know, he
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit under the radar now because
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: he wasn't that good last year, so people might be
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: kind of off the Tanner train there. Logan Gilbert was
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: hurt for a lot of last year, but he started
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: pitching pretty well. He is a good pitcher, wound up
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: having a good overall season last year, and though it
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: was a shortened season, his numbers are also good against Cleveland.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not a good offense fifty one at bats,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: fourteen to four, fourteen to two. Excuse me, strike out
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: walk ratio two thirty five average allowed six to ninety
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: six ops allowed. So yeah, I mean, this game pretty
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: much has underwritten all over it. You know, I'm like thinking,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: I'm like, why am I not adding this to my card?
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I like it. If I was gonna add
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: another game, I think I would add this one. Uh.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: The total is up a little bit to seven. We
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: have fifty eight percent of tickets, eighty percent of the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: cash on the over, so the money is on the
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: over in this game. I don't see it. I mean again,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: you have a lot of things looking like this is
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: gonna be an under, you know, especially I mean, Seattle's
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: offense is pretty good, but Cleveland's offense is terrible. Both
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: bullpens were at least pretty decent last year. Both starters
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: looked like they set up pretty well in this one
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: picture friendly park early in the season. Night game. Probably
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be a cool environment. Under is the way I
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: would play this game if I was gonna do anything
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: with it. And you know, you could consider first five
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: inning under as well, if you want to take the
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: question mark of the bullpens out, but you know, I
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: think you could leave them in in this case. I
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really be that worried about that, although I don't
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: want to eat my words. Seattle is also pretty heavy favorite,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: up to minus one seventy seven, And you know, I'm
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: not high on Cleveland this year. Cleveland overperformed at the
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: end of last year. They're really not that good. But
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle is also kind of overhyped coming into
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: this season. A lot of people are picking them to
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: win the American League. I don't think they're going to
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: to be honest, eighty two percent of tickets eighty six
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Seattle, so the money looks
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: like it's on Seattle a little bit. But they are
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: a pretty public side, so as far as the side
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: is concerned, maybe there is a little bit of value
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: looking towards Cleveland here, especially if it's gonna be a
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: lower scoring game. They might be able to hang around
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: in that game, and it could be again like a
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: run line money line split situation in there. Yeah, I
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: don't think I have a whole lot else to say
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: about that, but I do like the under in that game.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: Do we get really crazy and go three plays here
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. I don't like that the money's
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with me, man like in the games that I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: gave out the money is actually but actually the money's
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: not really agreeing with me on the under that I
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: gave out on that first five inning under either, So
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know, and I don't think it was really
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: necessarily agreeing with me on the Red Sox game either.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: But you know, sometimes when you look at these percentages,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: baseball is just not a heavily bet sports. You have
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: to kind of keep that in mind, Like the public
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: percentages mean a little bit less when you're looking at
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: the baseball board here because the public just doesn't get
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: as involved. So the way that the line moved, I
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: think actually might mean a little bit more depending on
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: whether it whether it's a setup or not though, which
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: is always the case, Like is it a real move
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: or not from the professionals. You have to kind of
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: gauge that. But but yes, I do like the under
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: in that Cleveland and Seattle game. All right, let's go
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: to men's college basketball. Here. We have the Sweet Sixteen
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: in action here. All the games are at night, starting
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: with eleven seed Texas against two seed Perdue. Texas has
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: won three games technically in the tournament. If you want
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: to consider the first four to be a tournament game.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: They pulled off three upsets in a row. This game
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: is gonna be in San Jose, California, because we have
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: moved to the regional locations here, so it's not really
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: an advantage to one team or the other here. Purdue.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: I think Purdue is legit man. Like I said, I
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: would not have hated you if you wanted to put
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: them in the final four in your bracket here. They
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: haven't been tested yet. Yeah, Texas has definitely been more
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: tested so far, with a win over BYU, a win
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: over again Zaga, they look good. But after pulling off
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: another upset that against Gonzaga, do they look too good?
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Purdue just hasn't been tested really yet.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: I mean they did beat Miami. Miami was alright, Purdue
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: didn't really have any trouble in that game. Purdue, you know,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I got to give them the coaching edge here, even
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: though I know Texas has Sean Miller sweating through his
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: shirt and whatever. But Matt pain Or I'm gonna give
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: him the coaching edge. But the coaching edge is gonna
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: matter more in the quick turnaround over the weekend, Like
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: when you have two days to prepare for a team
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: you're unfamiliar with, the coaching matters more in that scenario. Now,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the thing I don't like about Texas here is Perdue
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: basically is the same type of team, just better. Both
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: these teams play slow, they're both good on offense, and
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: they're both not as good on defense. But Texas is
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: just wildly variant, like their offense is very good, but
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: their defense is pretty bad, and Purdue is actually still
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: better in both. Purdue is the number one offensive efficiency
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: team according to Ken Bomb in the entire country, So
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: even though Texas is a top fifteen and Purdue still
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: beats them there. Both teams play slow, both teams could score,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: neither team is very good on defense necessarily, but Purdue
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: is still better in both. So I don't think this
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: is a good matchup for Texas because again they're facing
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: a team that's better than they are and does the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: same thing that they do, just better. So I think
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: I kind of need to Purdue in this one. But
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: the money is totally disagreeing. Purdue's minus seven and a
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: half fifty five percent of tickets on them, sixty three
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Texas. So the money is
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: indicating on Texas, but I just I don't see it.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: I don't want to play the game at all. I
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: don't want to fade a market read like that, But yeah,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: I just don't see it. I don't think it's a
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: good matchup for Texas, but you know, maybe Texas will
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: be that eleven seed. I mean, they're already the eleven
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: seed that's made a run here, but maybe they are
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: an eleven seed that makes a wild run, you know.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: This far, I don't really think they will, but we'll see. Man.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: I think Purdue will win this game, and I think
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I would lean to them laying the points as well.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know what's going on with the market. There.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Market also indicating on the under. For what it's worth,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: the money has pretty heavily coming on the under, knocking
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: it down to one forty seven and a half. I
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: don't have a good feel for the total because again,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: you have two slow paced teams that they're both better
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: on offense than defense, So the scoring could still happen
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: in this game. I believe Texas is pretty good at
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: getting to the free throw line as well. But I
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: think Purdue doesn't commit that many fouls, so I think
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: that kind of takes that might be why people are
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: betting the under, but that would seem to be another
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: advantage to Purdue. So I don't really understand why the
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: money is coming into Texas there. So I don't know.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: The next game up is the game everybody's pretty much
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: talking about the Corn Battle between Iowa and Nebraska. Unexpected
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: match up here between these two. Nebraska had not won
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: a tournament game in program history. Now they're here. I mean,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: that's not that unexpected that they're here because they're four seed.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Iowa hold off the upset of Florida. I gave that
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: out as a play on the show as well. Iowa
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: plus the points whenever I do that, like I say,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: you gotta sprinkle a little bit on that money line, man,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Like in that case, I would have said about probably
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: about three percent of that bet on the money line.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: They got the job done. I was surprisedly won the
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: game outright. They were in that game pretty much the
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: whole way. Good coaching from Ben McCollum. It's gonna be
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: him against Hoyberg. Here. This is an interesting game because
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Iowa is more balanced. Both teams play slow, but Nebraska
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: is the better defense. But Nebraska also is the higher
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: variance team because they take a ton of threes Iowa doesn't.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: So how do we handicap this game? I don't know.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: It's difficult. And could you argue that maybe Iowa looks
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit too good because they just beat Florida.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Is there any sort of like letdown here? Maybe that's
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: something to consider, but I think the letdown isn't as
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: much of a thing in the tournament, especially once you
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: get this far, like every team is just trying to
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: win at this point. This game is in Houston, which
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: I think is probably an advantage to Nebraska a little bit.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: They had a lot of fans at Oklahoma City, and
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: those fans are probably coming down to Houston, you know,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: not that much of a trip really from Oklahoma City,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: so I think the fan base is gonna be stronger
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska here. The money interestingly is on Iowa in
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: this one, though Nebraska down to a one and a
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, fifty five percent of the tickets on them,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash though on Iowa. Money
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: coming in on Iowa. One thing to consider is the
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: fact that you have a four seed that's barely favored
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: over a nine seeds. That's one thing you have to
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: take it to consideration. You have these pretty disparate seeds here,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: but the oddsmakers are telling you these teams are really
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: close in power ratings to one another, and Ken Bump
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: kind of bears that out in Nebraska nine spots higher
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: top ten defense, but outside the top fifty on offense.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't like that imbalance. Necessarily, Iowa plays even
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: slower than Nebraska, and they're more balanced. Even though they're
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: not the better deepfense than the more efficient offense, Nebraska
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the better team down low. Nebraska has
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: more size, so you know this is it's a but
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: they also take more threes. It's a very weird matchup,
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: to be honest. We've seen it twice already, by the way,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: which is a rare phenomenon that usually you're gonna be
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: dealing with teams that haven't faced each other at all.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: These teams are in the same conference, so they played
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: each other twice already. They went one to one against
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: each other. The home team won each game, Iowa played
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: pretty well in both games. The game at Iowa, I
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: don't see it here, but I know it was a
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: low scoring game. Yeah, Iowa won fifty seven to fifty
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: two in the first game was low scoring. Anythink Nebraska
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: really had a bad shooting game in that game, so
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe they'll shoot better here. I mean again,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: it depends on the three pointers, you know, if they're
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: falling or not from Nebraska. I think Iowa does allow
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of threes, which is not necessarily what you want.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Although I'm gonna recommend again by Ken bond Man, by
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: this guy. You know, it's like twenty five bucks a
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: year or whatever. I just want to see what's Yeah,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: I wanted to see what Iowa's three point percentage allowed is.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: It's very middle, middle of the road there one sixty
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: second in the country, thirty three something percent whatever that was.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: So Iowa was not a great three point defending team,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: but they almost beat Nebraska twice. If you remember, I
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: actually gave you guys, Nebraska as a play. In the
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: second and last game of the season at home against Iowa,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Nebraska looked like they kind of had that game in hand.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Then they kind of blew it, and Iowa wound up
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: being right in that game, and it wound up going
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: to overtime, and then Nebraska wound up winning an overtime
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: and somehow covering an overtime. But Iowa could have won
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: that game, so we could be looking at Iowa potentially
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: having won both games against Nebraska. This is such a
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: difficult handicap, man, it really is. You know, my first
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: instinct was, well, Iowa was gonna, you know, look too
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: good with that win over Florida. Whatever. I'm not so sure.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I kind of like the balance of
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: Iowa here. I don't really want to fade like a
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: market read like this. I don't know. I kind of
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: lean towards Iowa in this game, but it's yeah, I
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: can't read this game very well. As far as the total,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: it's gone down a little bit. There's a lot of
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: money on the under here, and I don't disagree with
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: the under in this one because you're looking at a
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: good Nebraska defense here. They're not as good on offense.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Both teams play slow, so I think you're gonna get
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: a slow paced game. The last game they played was
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: misleadingly high scoring because it went into overtime, So I
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: would not disagree with an under in this game, but
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: you know, there's a little bit of variance there because
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: of the amount of threes Nebraska takes. I think the
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: game pretty much the entire game is gonna come down
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: to how well Nebraska is hitting threes, though, which which
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: makes it a very difficult handicap, I think, so I
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: don't want to touch it at all. The later two
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: games back in San Jose, we have Arkansas and Arizona.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: San Jose probably a little bit of a well. I
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: don't even know if San Jose is that much better
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: for Arizona. Arizona I believe just played in San Diego.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is coming in for playing in Portland, so both
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: teams are already adjusted to the Pacific time zone, so
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: both teams set up fairly and nicely as far as
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the travel is concerned here. I don't know if Arkansas
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: is the greatest, Like, I don't think Arizona is the
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: best matchup for Arkansas to draw here, because what do
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: we know about Arkansas. They like to play really fast,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: They like to just go sheer talent because that's what
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Caliperi does. He tries to out talent you. And yeah,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Arkansas has the best single player in this game, with
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: a Cuff who is probably gonna be in the NBA
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: next year. But Arizona is the better team overall. Of course,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: that's why they're favored by a significant amount here. Arizona
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: also likes to go fast, so Arkansas is drawing a
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: team that also goes fast and plays way better defense
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: than they do. So I don't know that it's the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: best draw for Arkansas here, man. Arkansas does not take
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: a ton of threes. They try to drive on you
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: and go inside, and that's where Arizona is the best.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: They dominate in the paint. Arizona does like nothing on
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: the perimeter. They don't shoot threes. They're pretty good on depense,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: like all around the court, but especially on the interior.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: And Arkansas tries to drive on you. Like I said,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Arizona's gonna outsize them a little bit there in the interior.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it's a good matchup for Arkansas here.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in in Arkansas, though, so I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: don't know what to think, man, like these games, like
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: as far as the matchup is concerned, Like, I think
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Purdue has a matchup edge against Texas. The money is
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: coming in on Texas, though I think Arkansas has a
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: match or excuse the Arizona I think has a matchup
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: edge here, but the money's coming in in Arkansas. I
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: don't get it. Arizona's minus eight here. Do I think
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Arizona's gonna lose the game? No, I don't. Fifty three
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets around Arizona sixty seven percent of
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: the cash on Arkansas. That worries me that the money's
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: coming in on Arkansas. But I think Arizona should not
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: really have much difficulty scoring Arkansas. Again, their weakness is
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: the deepfense. They don't defend well close to the basket,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: and Arizona is dominant on the inside typically, so that's
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: not good for Arkansas. So I just don't get it. Man.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: The only argument that I could see really is, well,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: Arkansas just got a scare right against High Point. Arkansas
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: almost lost to high Point, So yeah, like I do.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: I like that aspect of it, Like when a team's
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: coming off of scare, usually get a good effort out
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: of them in the next game. But we're talking about
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: a sweet Sweet sixteen matchup where both teams are gonna
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: give you effort, you know what I mean. So I
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: think the matchup matters a little bit more than the
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: situation in some cases when it comes to a game
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: like this, like I like doing that on the on
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: the short turnaround time when you have I like doing
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: it with the better team when the better team is
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: off of a scare and you know you're gonna get
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: a huge effort out of in the next game. I
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: like laying the points with them, which I thought was
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: the kind of the case with Arkansas and in the
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: game against High Point and it still didn't happen. High
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Point flew in a bunch of their students for that game. Ridiculous.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: High Point has a lot of money, man like people
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: are saying, oh, high Point, is this you know, small
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: like Cinderella. I'm like, no, they're owned by like Elebanese
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: billionaire banker. Is the is like the owner of the school?
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: So no, no, actually, but anyway, yeah, this game, I
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: probably lean to Arizona slightly here laying the points. Also,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: the total is really high in the one sixties, so
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: higher total usually means it's a little bit easier, there's
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: more variance, but it usually means that the better team
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: has a better chance to cover the number like that,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: when it's a high total, the money is actually coming
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: in on the over, even though the total initially dropped.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with an over here because again,
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: the teams both like to play fast, so you gonna
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: get a fast faced game here. Arizona is probably gonna
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: be able to do a lot of scoring against a
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: pretty weak Arkansas defense. Uh So the question, I think
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: the question really is as far as the over can
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Arkartsas do their part and score enough against Arizona because
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona clearly has the better defense here. So yeah, those
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that, mister Pinsey, what's up? I
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna be Arizona by a billion. I'm
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: I'm very hesitant to want to do anything with that game.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: I don't like the market read there, man, Because when
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: I disagree with what looks like a pretty strong pros
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: versus Joe's market Reid, I gotta like rethink what I'm thinking.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Usually you know what I mean, even though I don't
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: see it. Like sometimes I'll disagree with the market and
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: I'll be right. So I don't know, I just don't
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: see it in that one I don't, and then we
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: have the best, probably the best game in the night,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Illinois and Houston. I mean this, this game is gonna
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: make or break a lot of brackets. And you know,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: I have Illinois in my braw. I think whoever wins
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: this game is probably going to the Final four. I
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: picked Illinois because way too many people had Houston. So
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: I had to decide basically between Illinois and Florida, and
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: it looked like Florida actually had the easier path, but
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: not so much because they didn't beat Iowa. So I
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: have Illinois. Usually I don't like that because Houston is
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: obviously the better defense here. Oh we have offense versus
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: deepfense here. So Illinois very very good on offense. Them
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: and Purdue they're both like elite offensive efficiency teams. Houston
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: really good on defense, not quite as good on offense. Illinois.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: One thing they do really well is they do hit threes,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: and Houston kind of their weaknesses that they give up
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of threes. Houston tries to kind of like
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: destroy you on the interior, and Illinois is gonna take
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of perimeter shots, I think, which is really
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: that's the way that you can beat Houston is by
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: taking three pointers. Man. That's like the kind of the
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: one way you're gonna be able to beat Houston because
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Houston doesn't really take as many threes, so if they
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: fall behind, they're less able to make a comeback, which
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: might be illin. It might be the way that Illinois
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: can win this game. Mat is, they have to score
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: and get out to a lead, make it so that
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Houston is forced to have to try to come back
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: in the game, and maybe they won't be able to
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: do it. Even though Illinois defense is not as good
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: as Houston's, Illinois very very good all around though coaching wise,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, Sampson probably gets the edge ever
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Houston Underwood for Illinois pretty experience, although I think he's
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: a loose can and I don't really like him. But Illinois,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, Illinois got more talent. Man. It's just the
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: if Houston's able to kind of beat them up physically,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: Illinois is not gonna like that. Illinois is more of
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: a finesse team, and I usually like these beat you up,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: grind you, you know, defensive teams here, but in this game,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: I actually do lean to Illinois. Houston. This game is
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: in Houston. So just like the Island of Brass game,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: so Houston gets away in their home city. And I
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: think that's skewing the line a little bit because Ken
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: Bom has this game being like a one point game
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: for Houston. They're two and a half for three here,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the tickets are on Houston, fifty
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So Houston is a public side here. Man.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: People like what they see out of Houston so far,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: but they haven't played anybody. I mean, yeah, they played
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M. Okay, Houston was able to beat
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: bucket Ball. Bucket Ball. You know, he's a new he's
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: a new coach with Texas A and M this year.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: They play fast. Houston is gonna just slow you way down.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: That's not They're not gonna be able to take Illinois
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: out of their game by slowing it down. Because Illinois
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: also likes to play slow, even though their offense is good.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: They play slow, not as slow as Houston, but Houston
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: slowing the game that is not gonna take Illinois out
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: of what they want to do. Illinois did get by
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: VCU pretty easily, which you know VCU is not a nobody,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: so you know, I mean there is that at least.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not disagree with an under in this game either,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: because I think it's gonna be a close, you know,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: just a tight battle, low scoring game. Uh, you've already
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: lost value on the total though it's down to one
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: forty now. It's dropped four points already from the opener,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: sixty two tickets fifty two percent of the cash on
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: the over. Even though you would think that an under
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: would favor Houston because they're the defensive team, but I
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: think both teams kind of play that style because they
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: both go slow, you know what I mean. We'll see
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: what happens in this game. But I'm you know, for
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: my bracket purposes, I need Illinois to get through this
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: game obviously, although I have them losing to Duke in
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: the final four. But if a lot of people get
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: you know, like so many people pick Houston, that if
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: people get Houston right in the final four, that is
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: gonna hurt me with my bracket. So I need Illinois here,
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: not just because of my bracket, but I will lean
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: to Illinois here anyway. The market is actually agreeing with it,
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: So I'll lean that way for Illinois to cover the
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: number here. I think it'll be a close, low ish
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: scoring game here. Well, yeah, we'll see what happens. Man.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: I think the fact it's being played in Houston, you
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: have to consider that. But it's not at Houston's home arena, obviously,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be in the Rockets home arena here. Yeah,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have a huge fan base. There was no
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: question about that. Illinois. I'm gonna tell you Illinois travels
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: because I saw Illinois play in the Elite eight and
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen in Boston two years ago, and it
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: was Yukon Illinois, Iowa State, and San Diego State. Illinois
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: had the second strongest fan base there besides obviously Yukon,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Illinois had a ton of fans there. So they travel
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: pretty well. So, you know, even though they're gonna be
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: out outnumbered by Houston Vans, Illinois has a huge fan
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: base in a huge city in Chicago, you know what
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: I mean. So they're probably gonna travel pretty well to this.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm not that concerned by that. So I'm yeah,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to Illinois there perdue Nebraska, Illinois, Arizona.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: You mean to win or to cover I mean, I
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: think Purdue in Arizona should win because they're both big favorites.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: I lean to Iowa and Illinois against the spread. There
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: we had the same final four, and you made your
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: bracket before me. Oh shit, does that mean I'm doing
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: something wrong? I don't know. Flemings, Yeah, he's Houston's best player.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: I think he's good, you know. I mean he's good
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: when he's like driving to the basket and using his physicality,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: and he's good on defense. I think he is good.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: He might need a haircut though. All right, I'm gonna
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: we're at the right around the hour mark, you know what,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: I do want to take a little bit of a break.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: We got a pretty good amount of hockey to break
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: down here. I do have one more play I'm gonna
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: give out in hockey, and then we have three NBA
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: games that are gonna be boring to talk about. But
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back. Let me. I'll bring up the
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: hockey board for you here. That's we're gonna talk about. Now,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: zoom out a little bit. Way too much hockey, dude,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: hop hockey is way too lopsided. Like, I don't know
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: why you have like fifteen games one day, two the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: next day, thirteen, the next day. But hold on a second,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: all right, hockey, I do have one play on the
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: hockey board here all night games here, we got Columbus
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: in Montreal. Now for hockey, as you see, I do
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: have the NHL standings up here, because we're getting to
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: the point of the season where the standings definitely matter.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: You've got teams that are basically securely in in some cases,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: especially in the Western Conference, you got a lot of
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: teams fighting for wildcard positioning potentially and trying to avoid
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: the wildcard and stuff like that. So that's somebody to
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: consider from a motivational perspective. Columbus in Montreal, these are
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: both teams that are fighting for playoff positioning pretty much. Montreal,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: you know, is tied with the Bruins, who are the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: top wild card right now, so there is a little
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: bit of a battle there for that, and I believe
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: they're in the same division as well. It's just Montreal
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: almost have a tiebreaker or something. Okay, But anyway, I
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: think for motivation, like you're gonna get motivation for both
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: teams here. Columbus is also in the same boat, like
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: one point behind there. It's just they're in a weaker division.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: All right. You know, we got to look at the
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: scheduling situation as well. Columbus just beat Philadelphia, whatever, this
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: is not gonna be the game that I have a
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: play on, by the way, you know Philadelphia is I
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: think they're still kind of in the mix right now,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: but you know whatever, Montreal just had a big win
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: over Carolina though, five to two, after destroying the Islanders
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: as well seven to three. Islanders are in the mix
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: as well for trying to get a playoff spot. I
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: kind of like Columbus here man. Montreal just coming off
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: that very set satisfying win against Carolina. I know both
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: teams are in a position where they got to keep winning,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean again, I can't overlook the fact
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: that Montreal's coming up that huge win. So I'm kind
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: of handicapping it like I just would a regular season.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is the regular season still anyway. But
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: Montreal down for minus one, twenty to minus one, seventeen
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of the tickets, ninety nine percent of
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. They're a public side. I would
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: probably lean Columbus money line in that one. Not a
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: strong opinion though. Pittsburgh at Ottawa, I mean I think again.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: You have teams that are fighting for playoff positioning in
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: this game. Pittsburgh is the last of the teams in
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: from the Metro Division right now, and right around where
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: the Wildcards are. Auto was literally the last team in
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: right now, tied with the Islanders, barely ahead of the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: Red Wings, and then the Flyers are a little bit
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: behind that. Dude, I mean, a lot of these teams
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: have pretty good records, and some of these teams are
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: not making the playoffs. The Eastern Conference is is a cluster,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: kind of like a was last year. By the way,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: the most hilarious thing about this is the only team
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: in the East that's officially eliminated is the Rangers. Two
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: years in a row they don't make the playoffs. Oh man,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not sad about it. Pittsburgh coming off a couple
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: of pretty ugly losses, but to good teams Carolina and Colorado.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: Going to Ottawa for a game, maybe it's bounced back
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: time for Pittsburgh here. Coming into this one, Ottawa needs
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: to get wins as well. Though Ottawa's on a four
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: game win streak. They're returning on from a road trip,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: but they were on the road Monday Tuesday. They're playing
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: a third game in four and a's, which is not great.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: They do have Tampa Bay on deck because they have
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: to go back out on the road. Yeah, I mean
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: the return from only a two game road trip doesn't
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: concern me that much, especially you know, just to New
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: York and Detroit. But yeah, I don't know the fact
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: that they're on a win streak. Pittsburgh's coming off kind
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: of an ugly loss. I kind of lean to Pittsburgh here.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: Both teams kind of in the same boat as far
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: as playoff motivation. Otto is a public side. Eighty five
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, only eighty three percent of the cash.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: They're sitting around minus one forty five minus one forty eight,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: you know, is what it moved up to. But yeah,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Pittsburgh. Did I say Pittsburgh, Yeah,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh on the money line, This is the way I
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: would lean in that one. Seattle at Tampa Bay. Tampa
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Bay obviously is gonna be a huge favorite here, I believe. Yeah,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say, believe it or not. Seattle is
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: not out of it yet. They're five points back of
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: the last wildcard spot, which is Nashville, right now Nashville
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: being in the West still makes no sense to me.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: Seattle coming off a couple of losses here, but remember
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: that was a loss that I gave out on the
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: show the other day on Tuesday. Shootout loss to Florida,
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: absolutely brutal. They made a huge comeback in that game,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: just to lose to Florida. Florida, you're gonna get up
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: for a game against Florida, even though I don't even
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna make the playoffs this year. I think,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: in fact, they're pretty close to being eliminated, but still
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: a big game. Now. Seattle's trying to finish the road
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: trip here. Not that easy, but maybe they're gonna give
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: you effort because it's against Tampa Bay. Everybody knows they're good.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Seattle hasn't won any game on the road trip here.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: There's still, you know, maybe a shot that can make
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: the playoffs here. Tampa Bay is one of the teams
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: that's more secure in a playoff spot. They're in second
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: place in the Atlantic right now. They have a five
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: point gap between them and Montreal, who's behind them. So
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a bit more secure here, so you
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: might get a little bit less effort out of a
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: team like Tampa Bay. Right now, they're just beaten Minnesota,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: which is a pretty big win. Ottawa on deck might
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a bigger game for them
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: as well. So I like Seattle in this game, Tampa
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Bay down to minus two seventy five or minus two
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: ninety two, eighty nine percent of the tickets, ninety nine
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Tampa Bay, I would I
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: would not put much weight into that cash percentage there.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: I think Tampa you know, they're gonna be a public side.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: This is one where it would be Seattle. Puck line
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: on this one. You can get them probably at a
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: pretty good puck line price there. ESPN has a doubleheader
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: with two interesting games. The first game up is Minnesota Florida.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: Of course, Florida is probably not getting into the playoffs, man,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: even though they're back to back champions, they're not even
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna make the playoffs. And once
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Florida gets officially eliminated, it's gonna be fade fade. Time
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: to fade Florida, man, when they're officially eliminated, because they're
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: so used to winning the Cup and whatever. If they're
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: not even gonna make the playoffs. I mean, you want
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: to look to fade them on Minnesota. You might want
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: to fade them here too. Minnesota coming up that lost
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay six to three. I'm gonna try to
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: probably get a win here against Florida. Florida did just
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: get that win over Seattle, where I'm not happy about it,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: but yeah, that was in a return home spot. They
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: played badly, they got the win. It is an ESPN game,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: So maybe you do get effort out of Florida here
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: because they're playing a decent team. They didn't play that
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: well in their last game. And I do talk about
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: this when teams were turned home from a road trip
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: and they don't have a particularly good game, a lot
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: of times they will play better in the next game.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: This game has got to be a stay away from me.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in of Minnesota. For what it's worth,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: they dropped for minus one fifty five to minus one
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: forty seventy nine percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. From a motivational aspect, I kind
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: of agree with Minnesota here. It's it's tough to figure
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: out on Minnesota sitting at ninety two points, which is
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: what's going on in the Western Conference is insane because
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: all the playoff teams from the Central have better point
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: totals than all the teams from the Pacific. Like it's
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: so lopsided towards the Central because Colorado and Dallas are
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: both in it. So Minnesota is in no danger of
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: losing their playoffs spot. They're twelve points ahead of Utah,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: so you know, yeah, like there's there's no Questionnesota's gonna
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs here. So actually, yeah, I mean Minnesota
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: does not have a whole lot to play for here really,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: to be honest, But Florida really doesn't either. So it's
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: a weird game where maybe an over would be in
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: consideration there, because that's what happens when you have teams
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: that aren't that highly motivated anymore. Overs do make sense
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: as well in games like that. So those are my
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that first ESPN game, Dallas at the Islanders.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Dallas is on a bad stretch right now, losing three
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: games in a row. But I just showed you Dallas
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: is they're gonna make the playoffs. They're pretty much locked in.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: They actually played de Smith twice in a row. I
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: don't know, if Ottinger's hurt, let me see, I think
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: maybe they just decided to rest him a little bit more,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: because again, Dallas doesn't have a ton to play for here,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: because they're already in the playoffs, pretty much fairly locked
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: into one of those playoff spots. There. They've lost three
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: games in a row, but you know, they're starting a
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: road trip. Maybe you look at that as a reset,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: because I mean, you gotta at least win some games.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: You can't just lose all the rest of your games,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: you know, losing it home to New Jersey, you know,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: maybe that's the last straw. I mean, they had three
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: big games prior to that. They were all within one
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: goal against Colorado, Minnesota, Vegas. So it wasn't a particularly
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: good spot against New Jersey there. So maybe going out
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: on the road, maybe they will actually have some motivation here.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: The Islanders are going to be motivated too, because I
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: just showed you they're like just outside of the playoffs
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: right now, and they're staying at home and they just
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: lost to Chicago, which is a really ugly loss. So
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: I actually probably prefer the Islanders in this game. I
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: think the motivation is more heavy on their side. The
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: money is definitely agreeing with that. Dallas down for minus
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: one thirty to minus one twenty five here ninety six
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: or seventy six percent of the tickets on Dallas, fifty
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash though on the Islanders, so
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: the money is saying Islanders. I also agree you get
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: them as a little bit of a home dog here.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Public loves these good teams man like Dallas. But again,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: the motivation is more in question with Dallas right now,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: So that is also not my play though. Chicago at
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Chicago, like I said, they just beat the Island
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: or Chicago's pretty much just playing out the stretch. They're
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: not gonna make the playoffs. Philly, I think there might
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: be still a chance. I mentioned them, they're kind of
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: in that grouping in the East where they might still
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: be able to make the playoffs. They're gonna have to
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: make a run, though they just lost at home to Columbus.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: I probably prefer the Flyers here, Chicago coming off a
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: decent road win there, you know, I mean, they get
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: just a spoiler here, but do they care that much
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: about spoiling it for Philadelphia? Probably not. Philadelphia down for
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy to minus one sixty three. But it
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: looks like the money is on Philadelphia fifty six percent tickets,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on them. It would
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: have to be like a split puck line money line
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: situation there, where you're making your own minus one puck
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: line or something like that with Philadelphia. That would be
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: my lean in that one. San Jose at Saint Louis.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: San Jose, I mean, I don't think they're gonna be
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: making the playoffs. I think they're pretty much out of
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: it at this point. They've lost four games in a row,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: but maybe they'll give you some effort here after some
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly losses here. Five games in a row actually
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: my mistake playing a Saint Louis team that's actually worse
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: than all those other teams. So you know, it's a
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: step down in class for San Jose here, and maybe
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: they'll try to get a win here. Saint Louis, I mean,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: they're not going anywhere either, and they're coming off a
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: nice shutout win against Washington in a return home spot.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: So I probably dueling to San Jose here. I mean,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: you got two teams that have nothing to play for
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: pretty much at this point, and over is every worth
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: considering here as well. In my opinion, Saint Louis is
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: down for minus one forty five to minus one forty.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: It looks like the money is indicating on the Blues here.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know why sixty four percent of tickets fifty
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on San Jose. That's the
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: type of market read I don't like. And yes, I know,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention I I am worrying my Red
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: Sox have for opening day here, even though I'm fading
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: them in that game. Oh boy. Anyway, Yes, yeah, it's
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: not a market read that I would want to fade like.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: I would not want to fade Saint Louis here because
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: the market read is making it look like San Jose
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: is a dreaded public underdog with less than the money
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: on them. I don't want to fade them. I mean,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: perhaps the better way to look at it is the over.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: We see money coming in on the over a little
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: bit here. It looks like again, when you have two
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: teams that I think they're both pretty weak goaltending wise
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: and defensively. I know Bennington sometimes he's really good, sometimes
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: he's awful, but two teams that don't necessarily have a
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: ton of motivation at this point. Over kind of makes
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: sense in a game like that with two teams that
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: are pretty much out of it. Next game up is
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: my actual play, and we are going to take I
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: haven't put it in yet. We're gonna to take the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: Nationale Predators on the money line here. I know they're
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: a team that they're in the last playoff spot right now,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: so they need to win. And usually I don't like
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: playing these need to win teams. But we're not asking
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: them to cover a spread here or anything like that
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: and win by margin, you know what I mean. You're
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: literally picking the winner here at a minus one ten price.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: You're just picking the winner, and that's what they need
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: to do. Obviously. I think New Jersey is in a
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: bad spot here. I mean New Jersey they lost Jack
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: Hughes for the rest of the season. They're not they
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: know they're not going anywhere. Man. I know they've been
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: playing well recently. They've won four of the last five games,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: but they just won at Dallas. Dude, that was a
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: monster win at Dallas, and they have a huge game
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: against Carolina on deck. Do you really think they care
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: about playing spoiler to a Western Conference team here, I
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: don't think so. So I don't like New Jersey here.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: I think they're in a sandwich spot a team like this,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: I think you're just gonna get effort out of them
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: when when it's a game against a really big team.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: For Nashville, they've quietly been playing well five games in
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: a row, though most of those games were not wins
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: against impressive teams. The good winning there was against Vegas.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I know they're playing a lot of games
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: in quick succession here, but most of them have been
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: at home, so I'm not as worried about that. They
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: have momentum to stay at home. They need to keep
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: winning to try to make this playoff push here. So yeah,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go with Nashville here. I think the spot
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: for the Devils is bad. If we look at the
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: standings real quick one more time here, I think I
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: lost the I closed that window. We look at the
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: standings here in New Jersey, I mean they have no shot.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: They're like eleven points back of Ottawa. Yeah, you pretty
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: much know they're pretty much out of it. Whereas Nashville,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: they got to keep winning to hang on. Here. Man,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: they're three points ahead of the next closest team, which
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: is the Kings. Right now, we're gonna go with Nashville.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it's heavily agreeing with me here,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty tickets split, but seventy two percent of
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: the cash Nashville, and they dropped for minus one twenty
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: to minus one oh nine. I don't know if that
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: means maybe Sorrows is not gonna be their goalie in
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: this one. But I don't even care, New Jersey. It's
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: gonna be Mark stroum Er Allen, I don't care. We're
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: going with the other situation here. Sometimes I will factor
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: the goalie in, but in this case, I don't think
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: we need to. I don't think there's a huge drop
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: off necessarily between either team's top two goalies. So we're
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: going with the Nashville there, all right. Colorado at Winnipeg, Colorado,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: as we saw, I mean, they're pretty much locked in
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, they could potentially lose the
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: one seed, which I guess they want to hang on
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: to because you get home ice throughout so they'd get
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: to play in elevation. But they've won three games in
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: a row. They just got a very satisfying blowout revenge
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: win against Pittsburgh finishing a road trip. Here, they're already
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: three to zero on the road trip. They aren't playing
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: a Winnipeg team they just lost to at home, or
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: excuse me, on the road. Actually again, not that long ago,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: they lost three to one at Winnipeg. So returning to
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: the scene in the crime, maybe you'll get an effort
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: out of Colorado here, but they just did the same
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: thing against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh could totally embarrass them in Colorado
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: seven to two Colorado. You know, they got up for
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: that game against Pittsburgh on Tuesday and they smacked them.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: So I probably do lean to Winnipeg here. Winnipeg doesn't
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: have much to play for it at this point, but
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: they get a chance to beat Colorado here. Winnipeg return
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip in their last game, not
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: a long road trip, but it did take them all
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: the way to Boston. They returned home and they got
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: a good win over Vegas. So I guess you could
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: argue maybe a little bit of a letdown, but you're
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: playing Colorado. Man, You're gonna get up mentally for this game.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: It's just a matter of physically can they play these
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: two huge games in a row. I think they can.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: Hellabuk had a arrest on the in the Sunday game,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: so he's only played one game since Saturday, so he'll
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: probably be in net again. Here. I would lean to
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg in this one. Everybody, you know, everybody loves call Colado.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: They're the best team. We know that, but again it's
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: about motivation and Colorado. You know, they're close to pretty
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: much locking up the one seed, They've already clinched a
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: playoff spot. Whatever. They're down for minus one ninety to
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: minus one to eighty here, ninety percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash. I would not put much
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: weighted to that, but I think they're a very public
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: side and unnecessarily public well not unnecessarily, but we know
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: why the public is just gonna come in and play
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: the better team. But in a situation like that, that's
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: not what I would do it. Wo'd probably be Winnipeg,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: like puck line or something like that. Washington at Utah,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: Washington on a two game loosey streak. I mean, I
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: think Washington is still in the mix. I just mentioned
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: Washington R. I think they're still in the playoff hunt
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: here going into elevation, but off a very, very gross
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: loss to Saint Louis. I think you're gonna get a
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: bounce back out of Washington. And you can see why
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: they did bad in that game because they played Colorado
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: into overtime the game before that, you know what I mean.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: So they were in a hangover spot coming off that
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: Colorado game. They had a playoff team in Utah next,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: or likely a playoff team in Utah and then Vegas,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: so I think it was kind of a sandwich spot
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: as well. It was a bad spot for Washington, and
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: I think now they bounce back. Even though they're gonna
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: have to go into elevation here, they're gonna face a
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: motivated Utah team too, I think, because Utah is still
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: trying to hold on to their playoff spot or they're
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: a wildcard right now because they're in the Central Division,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: so they're in a division where they can't they have
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: to get a wildcard. They can't get into the top
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: three in their division at this point, they're too far behind.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: So it's a crazy scenario in the West. So they
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: got to keep winning. So Utah will be motivated as
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: well here. But they're having to lay, you know, a
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: pretty big price because of it, and maybe it's too
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: much of a price. The money is coming in on Washington.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: I do agree with that. Utah down for minus one
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: sixty to minus one forty eight seventy eight percent of
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: tickets on Utah. Maybe the pressure will build a little
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: bit on Utah as a decent sized favorite here, although again,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: if you like Utah, you just need him to win
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: the game. But I would lean to Washington. Probably just
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: some money line play. Sixty two percent of the cash
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: on Washington, big cash versus ticket disparity in that one,
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: I do agree with it lean Washington there. Anaheim at Calgary,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: Anaheim I believe is trying to hold on to a
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: playoff spot as well. I think they're actually a top
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: of the Pacific Division right now, so maybe they have
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit less motivation because of that. They've won
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. They beat Vancouver in their
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: last game, not a big deal there. They do have
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: Edmonton on decks, so maybe they're gonna look ahead to
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: Edmonton because a lot of teams overlook Calgary because Calgary
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: isn't good. Calgary's just playing out the stretch. But They've
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: won a few games in a row here, four in
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: a row. Calgary actually playing okay right now, even though
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: they know they're not going anywhere. Yeah, I think I
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: would lean to I'd lean to Calgary in this one. Anaheim,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: they're pretty likely to make the playoffs at this point
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: because they're winning their division, even though it's the weaker division.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: Ninety percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: on Anaheim definitly minus one forty five to minus one
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: thirty five here, So they're a pretty heavy public, heavily
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: public road favorite here, and Anaheim is not as good
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: on the road as they are at home either. Calgary
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: has actually been decent at home too, so I would
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: lean to Calgary there. The second of the ESPN doubleheader
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: is a pretty decent game here with Edmonton and Vegas.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: I believe both teams are in playoff position right now.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: I ont me look at the standings again real quick. Yeah,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: these teams are in the same division and they're both
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: in right now, even though their point totals are not
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: that good. So they got to keep winning because the
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: wild Cards are battling with them right there. So Edmonton
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: just beat Utah five to two on the road though,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: so pretty satisfying win for Edmonton there going to Vegas.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: Vegas just had a pretty ugly loss at Winnipeg. But
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: they're returning home from a road triple. Though it was
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: only a road trip that was Saturday through Tuesday, and
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: they only went to Nashville, Dallas. Well, they went to Winnipeg.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: I mean that's a bit of a travel spot there.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: I guess bad loss though. Now, usually when a team
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: returns home, you know me, I'm telling you to avoid
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: that team because they get distracted, they have to get
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: back to home life. Whatever. I don't think they're gonna
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: be distracted in this one though. I get's a good
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: Edmonton team hosting an ESPN game that's a fairly isolated game,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: even though they gotta compete with the Sweet sixteen games.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: But I think I would probably lean to Vegas here.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: The money is all over the Vegas side here. I
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: still worry about the return home spot I do. I'm
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: not gonna lie, but fifty six percent of the tickets
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: are on Edmonton, eighty seven percent of the cash on Vegas.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: You do have Edmonton coming off a very satisfying win
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: Vegas of an ugly loss, and I believe Vegas. Yeah,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: Vegas is below them in the standings too, so maybe
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit more motivation for Vegas than for Edmondson here.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: It's a very interesting game though, I think both team
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: should be motivated, has some playoff implications, so it's it's
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: a pretty good game to have on ESPN and then
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: LA at Vancouver to finish it off. As a pointing out,
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: the Kings are actually a pretty good road team and
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: the Kings, like I said, they're the first team out
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: of the wildcard spots right now, so you probably will
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: get a motivated Kings team here. Vancouver doesn't really have
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: much to play for him, but maybe they want to
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: play spoiler. Kings probably come in pretty motivated though, because
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: they've lost four games in a row. I know, the
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: last two games went into overtime and they're having to
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: travel here. But a loss at Calgary is pretty ugly, man,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: So I think you're gonna get a motivated King team
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: here trying to survive. Vancouver has lost a bunch of
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: games in a row, two three games in a row. Again,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe they will show up for this game
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: because they do have the chance to play spoiler. But
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: I probably would have to lean to the Kings. I
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: think you will get a motivated Kings team here and
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: they are the better team. They're a very public side though,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: the tickets and cash on them, and they're heavy favorite
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy minus one sixty nine. I wouldn't want
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: to deal with it. Man, I don't even know what
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: the better way to play this game is, to be honest,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the best thing is to just
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: completely stay away from the game. But again, if you
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: get a motivated team that is the better team and
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: they're actually not a bad road team, the Kings, I
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: kind of think that they will win the game, but
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. I don't like how public they
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: are in that one, all right. And then we have
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: three NBA games here that just don't really grab my interest.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: So the first game is a pretty good one, the
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: Knicks at Charlotte. The Knicks are battling for the two
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: seed right now against the Celtics. The Celtics I think
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: got a half game lead over them right now, after
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: a good Celtic win last night against the Thunder where
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: there was some pretty bad reffing that I was complaining
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: about on Twitter there with a SGA, Like, dude, you
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: can't even get near SGA and they'll call foul. It's
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: so stupid that one that I reached tweeted Derek White
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: like didn't even touch him. Oh and it's a foul
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: on Derek White. Yeah, of course it is. Anyway, Knicks
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: at Charlotte here, and we know Charlotte actually probably has
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: maybe more motivation here because Charlotte is right now trying
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: to avoid the playans. They're at least gonna get a
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: play in spot, but they have a chance to get
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: out of the plane and get into the top six
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: and they're definitely not a push over here man. And
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: people are gonna look at this and see, I think
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: Charlotte is actually favored in this game, and they're gonna
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: see that, Like, the public is probably gonna want to
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: take the Knicks because they have the way better record.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: The Knicks are coming off and escape against New Orleans.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: So maybe you will get motivation out of the Knicks
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: as well after playing not that well against kind of
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: a weak New Orleans team. Of the New Orleans is
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: better than people think they are at least, but still
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: when you're a big favorite and you barely get by
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of times you will give effort the next game.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: Starting a road trip usually is a focused spot. The
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: problem is the Knicks have Oklahoma City on deck. That's
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: a big game. The people might be hailing as a
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: potential finals preview whatever they say that of Oklahoma City
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: and the Celtics as well, Detroit, you know whatever, Calves
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: maybe even, but that is a big game for the Knicks.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: They're looming on deck for Charlotte. If it'll load for me?
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: What the fuck's going on? Is my internet not working?
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: Do you guys hear me? I think my internet's not working?
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: Oh fuck now, no, it looks like it is now
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: my internet. I don't know what the fuck that was
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: Internet cut out or something. Charlotte's won four games in
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: a row. They just annihilated Sacramento by forty four points.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: So a lot of times when you win by that much,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna want to play on a team after
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: they win like that. But they're gonna get up for
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: a game against the Knicks, and it's on NBA TV,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: you know, So I don't want to play the game,
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: but I think I do actually lean to Charlotte here.
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: They are getting the money. It looks like they flip
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: from a one and a half dog to one one
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: point favorite. It kind of looks too easy to grab
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: the Knicks as an underdog here. Sixty four percent of tickets,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the cash on the Hornets. I'll
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: agree with the Hornets in that one, but it's not
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: really that strong of an opinion for me. The Pelicans
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: are at Detroit. The Pelicans, they're they're a bit under
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: the radar because they're better than their record would make
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: them look. But they're coming off a couple of really
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: tough games against Cleveland and the Knicks coming to within
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: five points of both of them, and now they have
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: to try to do it again against Detroit. And it
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: is Detroit without Kate Cunningham, which is why Detroit is
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: not that heavy of a favorite here. But New Orleans
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: might run out of steam at some point here. Man, Like, Yeah,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: they're gonna probably try to give effort here against Detroit
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: because it's a big game, but three big games in
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: a row at some point you're gonna just run out
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: of gas. Man. Detroit did just lose a four game
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: win streak in an overtime game against Atlanta on last night,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: and I told you I did kind of lean slightly
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: to Atlanta in that game because Detroit was coming off
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: the win over the Laker, big win. They did finally lose,
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: maybe the Caid Cunningham injury catching up to them a
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: little bit. Here. Detroit is still good though, But sometimes
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: when a team lose the four game win streak like that,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: or lose the win streak, sometimes it will be hung
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: over into the next game. And they do have a
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: couple of big games on deck. ABC game at Minnesota
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: and that a Peacock game at Oklahoma City. So I
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: do actually think that I lean to New Orleans in
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: this one, as insane as that might sound. We have
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the tickets around the Pistons, sixty percent
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: of the cash on New Orleans. I'm gonna agree with that.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: The Pistons at from six to four and a half here,
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: the money coming under the Pelicans. It looks way too
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: easy to lay the short price with the Pistons here,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: So I do agree with it. I just don't know
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: what New Orleans is gonna have left after those two
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: other pretty big performances, and then we have the ugliest
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: game is Sacramento at Orlando, Oh God, Sacramento. I mean,
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: they're just playing out the stretch here. Do you get
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: after that out of them in this one after they
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: lost by forty four points, you might. I mean they
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: were putting in some decent effort in some of their
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: recent games, So maybe after an embarrassing loss, maybe they
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: will put in a better effort here. They get to
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: maybe try to I don't know. I wouldn't say play
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: spoiler necessarily, but Orlando is trying to avoid being in
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: the play ins here. Orlando might show up still because
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: they've lost six games in a row. They've lost to
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: mostly good teams in that stretch too, like all playoff
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: teams pretty much except for Indiana, which was the one
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: win I gave out. I gave it a win on
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: Indiana because that was a bad spot for Orlando between
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: two really good teams Lakers in Cleveland. Now Orlando is
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: coming off playing Cleveland pretty tough on Tuesday, so kind
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: of a bad spot for them here. They have to
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: go out and play Toronto, who's one of the teams
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: they're battling with for playoff positioning here coming up on decks,
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: So maybe they do overlook Sacramento a little bit here
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: I think I would probably lean to Sacramento against the points. Here,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: the Magic are laying a ton of points fifteen and
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: a half. That's a lot, uh seventy six percent of
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: the tickets on the Magic, sixty five percent of the
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: cash on the Kings. I probably agree with the Kings.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: You got to figure out how much motivation the Kings
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: are gonna actually bring into this game. Got to look
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: at the injury reports. Wagner is still not coming back yet.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: For Orlando, Suggs is questionable, so he was out with
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: an illness. I think he is probably gonna come back,
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: and if he does, then you have that kind of
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: you know, one of your big players is coming back,
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: and if that's the case, you know they have to
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: bring him back into the lineup, and that can kind
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: of cause a chemistry issue, you know what I mean,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: And the line might be a little bit higher on
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: Orlando then it would be otherwise. So if that's the case,
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: I actually I think it's actually maybe a better idea
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: to fav Orlando in a case like that. And then yeah,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: we know Sacramento has a ton of guys not playing,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: but a lot of times these backups will show up
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: and give you effort and covers the big underdog. So
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not touching the NBA here, but those thoughts on it.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Man. The players sitting one more time,
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: we have two Major League Baseball players we're doing to
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: make your own plus one run line with the Cincinnati Reds.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: I know we're fading my boss a Red Sox, but
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: that's just where it all leads me. Man. If you
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: find a plus one run line, you could do that too,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: But that's where we're going with that one. We're also
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: going a first five inning under in Anaheim in Houston
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: in baseball as well. I like how the pitching matchup
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: sets up for that. And then in NHL we're going
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: Nationale Predators money line. So I know not we're not playing,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: We're not making plays that are. We're trying to win
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: money here, man, We're not just trying to force plays
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: on exciting games, you know what I mean. So that's
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: how we're gonna do it. That's gonna do it. Learn
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: it tode on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram like subscribe,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: give me replies on the channel here. Let's boost this
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: channel up. Let's get the five hundred subscribers. Here at least,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: and then go from there and head towards monetizing the thing,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: and then you guys can super chat me and whatever.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: Try to get more people in the chat man ask
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: me stuff. We do a morning breakdown of the betting slate,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: pretty detailed, I think, pretty thorough every day. Hopefully the
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: information I'm giving out is good. Covered in UCA is
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube, so you can check that out.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: And I did a Red Sox Dropkick Murphy's TESSI cover there.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: It's actually a traditional song that Dropkick Murphy's covered. It's
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: a Red Sox song from way back in the day,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: old timing. So I gotta get that up on the
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: YouTube channel at some point today. What else is there?
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I dude, I forget what my plugs
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: are half the time. Oh yeah, Papreon dot com, slash
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: will learn to Toad. You can get some bonus stuff there.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: And then Loser cast every Tuesday night. We had a
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: decent episode on Tuesday. That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, guys.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow morning for more Sweet sixteen action
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: and probably at least a smaller board in general, but
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: there will be more baseball, uh probably more NBA than today,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: but way less hockey, so we'll see it's gonna do it.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: Peace h