Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / July 4th Crypto Rally + Weekend Outlook

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July 4th Crypto Rally + Weekend Outlook · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Getting ready for the fourth of July. Well, today we're gonna be breaking
• 0:10
  down ethereum for you, and it's independence in crypto. We'll break it all
• 0:15
  out for you. Guys. You're gonna love it. My name is Paul
• 0:16
  Barren. Welcome back in the tech path. Let's get into it today.
• 0:19
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• 0:22
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  get you a ten percent off. So maybe maybe just start your process down
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  there. All right, let's get into a couple of news items here.
• 0:54
  This chart will blow your socks off, slap you in the face. The
• 0:58
  entire history of the chart has disappeared because an enormous sum of bitcoin has moved
• 1:02
  on chain ten x more than previous highs. I'll pop this up and kind
• 1:06
  of zoom back out on this one to give you an example. This is
• 1:10
  the inflow. Look at this inflow, and of course many people are saying,
• 1:14
  all right, well, that was the big push from almost sixty three
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  down to where we are right now under sixty k, where bitcoin has been
• 1:21
  holding. Bitcoin correlation the S and P five hundred goes negative, indicating there
• 1:26
  could be a potential bottom here. This is something that has happened before,
• 1:29
  and a couple of points within the article. Since twenty nineteen, Bitcoin and
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  the SPX, the S and P five hundred have experienced negative correlations four times.
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  October during a bitcoin bear market June twenty twenty one. You guys remember
• 1:42
  that that was with the mining band, which I think really cuts short the
• 1:47
  last crypto bull market. And then December twenty second when the FTX collapse happened.
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  So October twenty twenty three, when bitcoin was consolidating before any substantial rally,
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  it was like from twenty five to over seventy k within six months.
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  So that has been the comparison here that if you look at the correlation of
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  where the S and P five hundred is in conjunction with bitcoin. Of course,
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  that's the thing that we talk about often is where are the opportunities here
• 2:15
  When liquidity comes into the market, what are they looking for? Typically they're
• 2:17
  looking for some of the risk assets like bitcoin, ethereum. Other things that
• 2:23
  play into this is the political landscape. You guys know this right now.
• 2:27
  We're dealing now only with ETF potentials, but also who is going to be
• 2:30
  the President Biden's post debate crisis now evolving into a genuine threat to his re
• 2:36
  election bid. There's a few key points here. Lloyd Dodge, who was
• 2:40
  a Texas Deem lawmaker, is now breaking ranks and has started to come out
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  likely as this is going to be one of many that will come out in
• 2:49
  a position against President Biden. So every effort for the President and his White
• 2:54
  House and campaign to take and make a fix to the problem is whether or
• 3:00
  not it's going to exacerbate it or if he's going to Maybe he'll come in
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  on this interview that's supposed to happen this week and turn it around. Maybe
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  that will help. But I feel like the Dems have already kind of pulled
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  rank in there, pretty much done with it. Listen to what he's said
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  to say here in this take a look. Yes, I have, and
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  I understood it was a limb when I crawled out on it. I've been
• 3:21
  in Congress. You can tell I'm not the most youthful member there, and
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  I'm not most endangered member, and I thought it was time for me to
• 3:28
  speak up, not for any self gain, but because I think the risk
• 3:31
  to our country is so great and we need to have the strongest candidate possible
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  in order to assure that the values that we hold for our democracy are not
• 3:42
  traded for an authoritarian strong man bent on revenge against his opponents. Do you
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  expect any of the other colleagues that you've heard from to follow your lead.
• 3:51
  I'm hopeful that some of them will. Maybe more importantly is that they express
• 3:54
  their views privately to the White House. It's only natural, as you describing,
• 4:00
  that the staff and the family gathers, though I would hope that he
• 4:03
  has more advice than from Hunter Biden, but that they gather in support of
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  him. Stand by your man, but we need the reality of the discontent
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  that's out there among those of us who fear a Republican House and Senate,
• 4:18
  and who fear for the future of our country. And just to look at
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  the cold hard numbers from the polls that they went down instead of going up.
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  When you see Democrats breaking rank like this, typically this is because it's
• 4:31
  going to affect down party lines, meaning the president and his poor performance is
• 4:38
  going to affect down party lines. What does that mean for crypto, Well,
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  you're going to end up with a much more republican forward House and Senate.
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  What he mentioned there and the opportunity there in terms of getting innovative regulation
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  in place could be especially if you have a Republican president. All plays out
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  so all this could be positive, but it also could spin negative. We
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  could see things change up in the Democratic part as well. I want to
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  go over to eth right now. Rumors that the SEC might approve the e
• 5:04
  ETF tomorrow. This is coming in. Remember a lot of these are still
• 5:09
  rumors. Be very careful on how you play the markets right now. No
• 5:13
  retail interest. This is the perfect setup for ethereum to kind of melt faces,
• 5:17
  very similar to what happened with bitcoin. So kind of look back at
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  the history. We've talked about this a couple of times here on the show
• 5:24
  is it does have the chance to get a real solid correction and could see
• 5:30
  an all time high and where we see ethereum start to truly break out.
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  I want to go to a clip real quick. This this gets into whether
• 5:36
  or not we're going to get the ETF soon and if not, when take
• 5:42
  a look? What do you expect for a spot ethereum ETF approval and how
• 5:47
  will it compare to what you saw out of bitcoin? Yeah, so when
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  do we think it's going to happen is a good question. Honestly. If
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  you asked me two weeks ago and I said, I think the SEC is
• 5:59
  going to push it off the plate before the July fourth holiday, they obviously
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  haven't done that. So it's not happening this week. I seriously doubt it.
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  It might happen the following week, so July eighth, the week of
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  July eighth, but it remains to be seen how many comments the SEC needs
• 6:13
  to give back to these issuers, how much conversation needs to happen between the
• 6:15
  SEC and these issuers. So it's possible that it might take into the week
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  of July fifteenth. That's where I feel it is going to happen somewhere in
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  mid July because of the back and forth that could happen on the s ones.
• 6:29
  The other thing that happened last week was that Solana got an ETF filed
• 6:33
  for it. This came in from Van k Vanek announced the only obstacle to
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  Solana's ETFs are lined up here. This is Mass Siegel. He's going to
• 6:41
  be on our show next week. We're going to talk about this. But
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  he stated that sole ETF approval depends on appointment of a new SEC chair.
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  Could happen right here with especially with elections coming up in November. Pointing out
• 6:51
  this point there is an option for sole ETFs other than the SEC chairman.
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  I do not believe the lack of regulation the futures markets will be a disadvantage
• 6:59
  for salonas ETF. That's the big question is you know Slan doesn't have a
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  futures market products, so that would be the question as to whether or not
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  it could come out before then. A couple other clips I want to get
• 7:10
  to. This one is Matt Siegel talking about what I just said, which
• 7:14
  is the se C chair and why it's so important. Take a look,
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  so you know there's there's some focus that there's no regulated futures market for Solana
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  and that might be holding back the ETF. We think that is a Gensler
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  syop. He has created that condition since taking power. There are a number
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  of ETFs that trade where the futures market is irrelevant to the price formation.
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  I'm talking about shipping ETFs, uranium ETFs, power ETFs. So with the
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  slight change in the regulatory environment in Washington, we think these will get approved.
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  But do you think if Biden wins in November there's no way they get
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  approved. I wouldn't say no way. You know, we could still have
• 7:55
  a new SEC chair even if Biden wins. So it all depends on the
• 7:59
  SEC chair. Yes, all right, Well there you have it. I'm
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  very surprised that Siegel said SEC yop. I mean, that is something that
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  is very intriguing that you hear a major asset manager talk about the SEC that
• 8:15
  ways. So we'll find out next week. We're going to have Matt Siegel
• 8:18
  on talking about this. Here's a clip of Hilm talking about why he's so
• 8:20
  bullish on soul. My brethren, listen in, and eth is the gasoline
• 8:28
  that powers that open source app store, and it's the largest one. But
• 8:33
  when you look at the characteristics of the Solana blockchain, it shares a lot
• 8:37
  in common with Ethereum in terms of the decentralization, but it offers much faster
• 8:43
  transaction speeds and much lower fees. So over time, we look at this
• 8:48
  market as a winner take all or a winner take most environment. You may
• 8:52
  recall that Apple had one hundred percent of smartphone profits even when they only had
• 8:56
  forty percent of market share. It's possible that the market develops like that,
• 9:01
  and with Solana about you know, twenty percent of the size of ease,
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  the upside if they can become that dominant open source app store is you know,
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  much higher, all right. So one thing he said there that is
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  very key is the word if, if they can become, and that is
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  you know, that's me saying a very big Solana fan. I've studied this
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  project, you know, at length. We understand not only the partners,
• 9:28
  but we also look at, you know, kind of the evolution of where
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  Slona has come from. And I think they're still you know, meaning galaxy
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  or excuse me, meaning of an egg. I think they're still in the
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  game that this has a really upside potential, and that's kind of the way
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  I see it. If you're looking for gains, most likely Solan is going
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  to give you a little bit more than ethereum, But Ethereum is going to
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  win. I don't know who wins it in terms of the next generation,
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  and it's still very very early in the markets right now. Steve Kurtz,
• 9:54
  who's coming in from Galaxy Digital, talks about why all of this is happening,
• 9:58
  because is there is a big shift happening right now, especially around the
• 10:03
  ETFs and the political landscape. Take a listen. It's idea that if there
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  wasn't a change in administration, that many of these future ETFs might not make
• 10:13
  it through the pipe. Do you agree with that? Well? I do,
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  and I don't. I think the future ETFs beyond ethereum really have to
• 10:18
  do with legislation being passed in the US. We've talked about this at nauseum.
• 10:22
  I personally think whether it's the Dems or the Republicans, we're on the
• 10:26
  right track. Whether we get market structure legislation before the end of the year
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  or whether we get it in a year, it's happening. The DC shift
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  has happened. You can't see unsea excuse me. Tens of millions of voters,
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  many of whom are single issue voters, and we're far enough from FTX,
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  but close enough to an election for that shift to actually take hold.
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  That will drive legislation, which will drive other ETFs beyond bitcoined ethereum. But
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  does the DC shift still happen if President Biden is reelected. I think so.
• 10:50
  Yeah, I think so. I don't think you can unsee. I
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  mean, really, investors have spoken at the bitcoin ETF moment, the fifteen
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  billion of netflows, the sixty billion of AUM, there's no the genie back
• 11:00
  in the bottle. People want this, Retail wants this, Investors want this.
• 11:03
  Yeah. I think they're hitting on it right now. On two points
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  is there's been too many rulings, too many changes from the Supreme Court,
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  all that indicate and point toward innovation. And I think that whether it's Biden
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  in the House or Trump, it almost doesn't matter now it would make it
• 11:20
  easier. Of course Trump was there, most likely he's going to really lean
• 11:24
  into what's happening in blockchain. But one of the biggest stories is this whole
• 11:28
  issue with Chevron deference. How many people overlook this because it has a very
• 11:33
  specific address to what's happening in crypto. Here's Justin Slaughter. He's coming in
• 11:37
  from Paradigm to talk about where this is going, but also how this has
• 11:43
  impacted crypto. Take a look where the court says, you know, chevron
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  has become a tool of administrative overreach. We think it is not based in
• 11:52
  the actual APA or the Constitution. The APID does not say that judges should
• 11:56
  defer to agencies. It just says courts should consider always whether or not an
• 12:03
  action is arbitrary capricious. The power stays in the courts. I'll jump ahead
• 12:07
  to this. You know, surprise, Crypto is part of this case.
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  One of the arguments made by conservatives in particular is that Chevron is pernicious because
• 12:18
  it prevents legislation from passing because agencies decide they don't need new legislation anything.
• 12:22
  They can use existing powers. And this is what happens. Right, Justice
• 12:26
  Sonya Sotomayer is talking with the plaintiff's lawyer, Paul Clement, great lawyer.
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  I think it was former Solicitor General, which is like the top of pelt
• 12:33
  lawyer in the government, and asking him, you know, you're talking about
• 12:35
  gridlock from Chevron. What do you mean? And he said, you know,
• 12:39
  no, what I'm saying I'm quoting now is Chevron is a big factor
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  in contributing to gridlock. And let me give you a concrete example. I
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  would think that the uniquely twenty first century phenomenon of cryptocurrency would have been addressed
• 12:52
  by Congress. And I certainly would have thought that that would have been true
• 12:54
  in the wake of the FTX debacle. But it hasn't happened. Why hasn't
• 12:58
  it happened Because there's an agency head out there that thinks that he already has
• 13:03
  the authority to address this uniquely twenty first century problem with a couple of statutes
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  passed in the nineteen thirties, and he's going to wave his wand he's going
• 13:11
  to say the words investment contract or ambiguous, and that's going to suck all
• 13:16
  of this into my regulatory ambit, even though the same person, when he
• 13:20
  was a professor, said this is probably a job for the CFTC. Oh
• 13:24
  my god. So crypto was part of the argument here. So cryptocurrency was
• 13:31
  discussed in the Supreme Court and the case of ter Gensler being sort of arbitrary
• 13:39
  and vicibitious. I mean, there's only one press person who's previously been a
• 13:41
  chair of the CFTC and the Biden min and also is professor mit Wow.
• 13:46
  Yeah, all right, so you can see here, guys, this is
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  a big deal. It's one of the things that we talked about last week
• 13:52
  when Chevron difference was overrun or overturned. And it does have a major effect
• 13:58
  on the govern overage, which has been the arch enemy of crypto, and
• 14:03
  that is the SEC and the current chair. All of that is about to
• 14:07
  change, whether we get Biden in the House or we get Trump in the
• 14:09
  House or something weird happens. The point is is that the government, the
• 14:13
  rest of the juici, the judicial branch, as well as what we're seeing
• 14:18
  from a regulatory standpoint, is starting to move in a good direction. Now,
• 14:22
  remember Mika's happening in the EU. We've got Hong Kong and Pacific Grim
• 14:26
  already making major moves. We're actually behind, So I think this is starting
• 14:30
  to catch up a little bit around what we'll see coming late twenty twenty four
• 14:35
  and twenty twenty five. One last thing I want to get to and that
• 14:37
  is this tweet right here coming in from chain Link. We're excited to announce
• 14:41
  Fidelity International and Signum have partner with chain Link to provide their NAV data on
• 14:48
  chain for Fidelity International's six point nine billion dollar money market fund. That is
• 14:54
  significant, people, because what we're talking about is major finance, mainstream consumers
• 15:00
  who are exposed to those kind of funds, and this is a huge step.
• 15:03
  Now, imagine if that happened in the United States. That's the thing
• 15:07
  that I think we're going to start seeing most of Wall Street and a lot
• 15:11
  of these asset managers starting to pull into this. And what are they doing.
• 15:13
  They're using these international markets as test zones to try this stuff out.
• 15:18
  Once it works, then they're going to unleash this on the American public,
• 15:22
  and I think the American investment class is going to see a major shift moving
• 15:26
  forward. Chain Link, do not sleep on that one. This is one
• 15:28
  we're watching very closely. If you're not in the Diamond circle, make sure
• 15:31
  and get in right now. It's a great place to get additional content.
• 15:33
  We've got a brand new group over there. We've got our closed our closed
• 15:39
  forums in there that you guys can get access to. So that's getting ready
• 15:41
  to launch here pretty soon, so be on the lookout for that. If
• 15:43
  you're in the email list, you'll get notified, so make sure and just
• 15:46
  hit the link down below. If you're not following me out there on x
• 15:50
  do that it's at Paul Barron. I'll catch you next time right here,
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