Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Captain Obvious | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/20/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Captain Obvious | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/20/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks, the black coffee on the felt man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: You look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me nine, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Nice now, hold on, hold on, let me for.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 5: And stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 6: Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with Toad.
• 1:30
  Speaker 6: Still sports for Saturday, June twentieth, going a little bit
• 1:35
  Speaker 6: early here, got stuff to do. I'm gonna give out
• 1:37
  Speaker 6: a couple of baseball plays, and I'm gonna give out
• 1:39
  Speaker 6: a World Cup play.
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: I like it enough. Hopefully it's gonna get there.
• 1:44
  Speaker 6: It might be multiple angles that could be used, but
• 1:46
  Speaker 6: this is the one that I think gives the best price.
• 1:49
  Speaker 6: So that's what we're gonna do. We went one on
• 1:52
  Speaker 6: one on the show yesterday. I gave up three plays,
• 1:54
  Speaker 6: but Washington was a no play because they switched starters.
• 1:58
  Speaker 6: Cake Valley is although it looks like he's actually gonna
• 2:02
  Speaker 6: pitch today, but he was. He had an illness, so
• 2:05
  Speaker 6: he didn't pitch last night, and they went with Pooling
• 2:08
  Speaker 6: as an opener and then Mikolas, So that would not
• 2:11
  Speaker 6: be something I would want to back. And in fact,
• 2:14
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay did win, and we're winning at the end
• 2:16
  Speaker 6: of five as well, so that wound up being a
• 2:19
  Speaker 6: no play there. Definitely, that was pretty much all my
• 2:24
  Speaker 6: plays unless I specify otherwise, rely on both starters must start. Honestly,
• 2:28
  Speaker 6: I think we got screwed in the Padres Rangers under
• 2:33
  Speaker 6: eleven runs scored in the first inning of that game,
• 2:37
  Speaker 6: Jacob de Grom gave up five runs on the top
• 2:40
  Speaker 6: of the first, even though he's an ace pitcher, he
• 2:43
  Speaker 6: and a one era at home San Diego has debatably
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: the worst offense in baseball.
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: Five runs. Then we turn.
• 2:50
  Speaker 6: Around bottom of the bottom of the first, Texas scores six,
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: even though they score an average of like two point
• 2:56
  Speaker 6: eight runs per game at home, or maybe I'm exaggerating
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: a little bit, but it's something like that, absolutely ridiculous,
• 3:03
  Speaker 6: and then the entirety of the game after that saw
• 3:07
  Speaker 6: six runs total I think, or maybe five actually it
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: might have been five.
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it was five.
• 3:12
  Speaker 6: I think you had eleven runs in the first inning
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: and then five in the.
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: Remaining eight innings. Absolutely ridiculous.
• 3:20
  Speaker 6: If that first inning didn't happen, the underwould have still hit.
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: So yeah, that does not make me happy.
• 3:26
  Speaker 6: But we did have an easy over with the h
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: Angels A's game is both teams individually went over that
• 3:34
  Speaker 6: total and the A's won twelve to eleven and extra innings.
• 3:38
  Speaker 6: Both teams had eleven runs at the end of nine.
• 3:42
  Speaker 6: That was a nice easy one there. And I think
• 3:45
  Speaker 6: the A's or excuse I think the Angels had a
• 3:47
  Speaker 6: huge lead in the middle of the game. I think
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: they were winning eleven to four maybe or something like that,
• 3:52
  Speaker 6: and they blew the whole lead whatever, it was something
• 3:55
  Speaker 6: like that. That game was insane, massive collapse from the Ange.
• 4:00
  Speaker 6: Their bullpen is absolute trash.
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: Obviously.
• 4:03
  Speaker 6: All right, we'll move on to today. I'm gonna have
• 4:06
  Speaker 6: two baseball plays. They might be the most obvious plays
• 4:09
  Speaker 6: on the board, though, which I you know me, I
• 4:12
  Speaker 6: don't like the obvious. Uh, but that is what we're
• 4:15
  Speaker 6: going with here, Kyle, what's up? They start hanging out? Charles,
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: what's up.
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: Wait what they brought it in a new pitcher and
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: he walked in the winning run in the A's game.
• 4:32
  Speaker 6: I guess I wasn't paying attention to that.
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: That first inning was ridiculous both.
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: I think both starters stayed in the game and they
• 4:40
  Speaker 6: both settled down like pretty immediately after that first inning.
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: I don't know what that first inning was.
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: You take that off the board, it's gonna that game
• 4:49
  Speaker 6: is likely to go under or it's at least gonna
• 4:51
  Speaker 6: be really close. So I'm not happy about that. Uh,
• 4:55
  Speaker 6: the final score was not indicative of what that game was.
• 4:59
  Speaker 6: There were more run unscored than hits in the first
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: inning as well. All right, baseball, we got a full
• 5:08
  Speaker 6: baseball slate here. There are actually two teams that didn't
• 5:11
  Speaker 6: play yesterday, which are the Mets in Phillies. I if
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: anybody knows why they didn't play yesterday, they can inform me.
• 5:17
  Speaker 6: But very strange because Friday usually every team plays. I
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: have no clue why those two teams didn't play yesterday,
• 5:24
  Speaker 6: and they're in the middle of a series already. They played,
• 5:27
  Speaker 6: they played Thursday and didn't play yes I don't even know.
• 5:30
  Speaker 6: Man White Sox at Detroit as the first game up.
• 5:34
  Speaker 6: Detroit did get the win yesterday behind Scooball. They won
• 5:38
  Speaker 6: four to three, so Detroit ended a little bit of
• 5:41
  Speaker 6: a losing streak there. White Sox are still over all
• 5:44
  Speaker 6: the better team here, but Detroit probably has the better bullpen.
• 5:48
  Speaker 6: Detroit used three relief pitchers yesterday. They're a well rested bullpen.
• 5:53
  Speaker 6: At least White Sox also used three. I would not
• 5:56
  Speaker 6: want to back the White Sox bullpen. Really, they're media
• 6:00
  Speaker 6: ochre though at sixteenth they're not an absolute disaster. Detroit
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: is actually nineteenth arranged by Whip, but they have a
• 6:06
  Speaker 6: better ray. I think they have the better bullpen, which
• 6:10
  Speaker 6: has been the case for the whole season.
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: White Sox clearly have an offensive edge.
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: They're tied in eighth in ops and the Tigers are twentieth.
• 6:22
  Speaker 6: This is a pitching matchup that doesn't look great. Sean
• 6:27
  Speaker 6: Newcomb not Duke Nukem. Sean Newcomb homeboy from Brockton Mass.
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: Good for him that he got out of there, though,
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: because Brockton Mass has a lot of crime. Let's just
• 6:39
  Speaker 6: put it that way. Nukeomb has been all over the place.
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: He's a journeyman pitcher. He's not a very good pitcher.
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: His RA in his career is like one point four,
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: but he's stuck in the league for like a decade,
• 6:51
  Speaker 6: so he's useful, I guess useful enough that he's stayed
• 6:56
  Speaker 6: in the league. He's got good numbers this year, but
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: he's only going to be an opener here. He's got
• 7:00
  Speaker 6: a two point seven to six ERA one point zero
• 7:03
  Speaker 6: four whip. He hasn't gone deeper than two and two
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: thirds innings, I think, in any outing this year, so
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: you're probably gonna get around two innings out of him
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: here or something like that, and then it's gonna be
• 7:13
  Speaker 6: a White Sox bullpen game, and that is probably not
• 7:16
  Speaker 6: something I would really have a whole lot of faith.
• 7:19
  Speaker 6: And Nukeom does have good numbers against the Tigers, for
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: whatever that's worth. They really haven't hit him well in
• 7:25
  Speaker 6: twenty four at bats, so while he's out there, he
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: might be alright, but I don't think I would want
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: to bank on that. Troy Melton, the guy who I
• 7:32
  Speaker 6: wanted to back a few days ago, hasn't pitched I
• 7:35
  Speaker 6: think in that entire span.
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: He is getting the start for Detroit.
• 7:40
  Speaker 6: Two point eight one ERA one point oh one whip,
• 7:42
  Speaker 6: those are some good numbers. Hasn't been good at home though,
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: seven point two home y ra. That's not good. Obviously,
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: way worse at home, but if you look at his numbers,
• 7:53
  Speaker 6: it's a small sample size like that all came from
• 7:56
  Speaker 6: one outing where you give up four runs at home
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: against Minnesota and he's five strikeouts and no walks in
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: that outing. He hasn't pitched since then, so he's been
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: off for eleven days, which may not be great because
• 8:08
  Speaker 6: when you're a starting pitcher, you like to be in
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: that rhythm and in that habit, you know what I mean.
• 8:12
  Speaker 6: So the fact that they basically skipped his start, I'm
• 8:15
  Speaker 6: pissed about it because we we would have had a
• 8:18
  Speaker 6: winner if we just stuck with that game with Detroit's
• 8:20
  Speaker 6: bullpen game. They won that game anyway, but it was
• 8:23
  Speaker 6: a no play for me on the show, which I
• 8:25
  Speaker 6: think was on Monday.
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: I don't know exactly why they.
• 8:29
  Speaker 6: Skipped his his turn in the rotation, because he's been
• 8:33
  Speaker 6: effective other than the fact that he doesn't strike guys out.
• 8:36
  Speaker 6: He's not putting guys on base though, low hit rate,
• 8:38
  Speaker 6: low walk rate, somewhat high home run rate, but that
• 8:41
  Speaker 6: was because he allowed four home runs in that Minnesota game,
• 8:44
  Speaker 6: which seems more like a fluke than anything else. So
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: I think he is still pitching well like based on
• 8:50
  Speaker 6: his command numbers for the most part, so I think
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: he should actually pitch okay here.
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: His numbers are decent against the White Sox.
• 8:57
  Speaker 6: In thirty two at bats two nineteen als, I averaged
• 9:00
  Speaker 6: six sixty eight ops four to five strikeout walk ratio
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: is not good, but the rest of those numbers are
• 9:06
  Speaker 6: I think good enough. I worry a little bit that
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: he's out of rhythm. One of the other reasons why
• 9:11
  Speaker 6: I had Detroit as a play in that game was
• 9:14
  Speaker 6: they had a rest advantage and a situational advantage. I
• 9:17
  Speaker 6: think they were catching Houston on a return home spot,
• 9:19
  Speaker 6: so they do not have any of that going for
• 9:22
  Speaker 6: them here. I'm gonna pass on the game, but Detroit
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: might be the right side here, although the money doesn't
• 9:29
  Speaker 6: agree with that. Seventy percent of the tickets on Detroit
• 9:32
  Speaker 6: sixty two percent of the cash on the White Sox.
• 9:34
  Speaker 6: Do you really want to back a White Sox bullpen game?
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: I mean, yeah, the White Sox have the better offense,
• 9:39
  Speaker 6: so they don't really have many other advantages. Yere other
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: than if you buy into Detroit is dead on the season.
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: But I think Detroit is getting up for this series
• 9:48
  Speaker 6: because I think they resent the fact that the White
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: Sox are ahead of them in the division.
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: Like, who the fuck are the White Sox? You know
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: what I mean?
• 9:55
  Speaker 6: They've been so bad over the recent years, and the
• 9:58
  Speaker 6: oddsmakers are telling you Detroit is the better team here.
• 10:01
  Speaker 6: They're favored and around minus one forties, so even though
• 10:04
  Speaker 6: they have the worst record, So that's an indicator of something.
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: I would slightly lean to Detroit. The money is also
• 10:10
  Speaker 6: coming in on the over at eight and a half.
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: I wouldn't really disagree with that. I could see the
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: pitching all around having some issues there, but that's not
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: going to be a play. No, Why would Philly and
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: the Mets specifically be the only teams off for Juneteenth.
• 10:32
  Speaker 6: That makes more sense the World Cups, so that might explain.
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: There was one other instance recently where two teams were
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: off on some day where every other team played. It
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: might have been another World Cup scenario. Dude, these cities
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: can't handle the World Cup. It's so stupid. The infrastructure
• 10:48
  Speaker 6: is not there for it. It's ridiculous. The Red Sox
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: don't really have to worry about that because the Boston
• 10:55
  Speaker 6: World Cup location is you know, like a half hour
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: outside of the city, so it doesn't really have an
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: impact on the traffic in the city. But it's still ridiculous.
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: But yeah, that makes sense. I guess it was because
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: there was a Philadelphia World Cup game going on there
• 11:12
  Speaker 6: or match. Garrett, what's up North Carolina? I haven't been
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: paying attention. I assume they beat West Virginia. Now where
• 11:19
  Speaker 6: are they at? Are they in the finals yet?
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: I have no idea. What's going on in.
• 11:22
  Speaker 6: The College Baseball World Series or whatever?
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: It is? All right? Cincinnati and the Yankees.
• 11:29
  Speaker 6: The Yankees won yesterday with a Schlittler shutout for however
• 11:33
  Speaker 6: long he was in there.
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: I didn't really look at the box score, but they.
• 11:36
  Speaker 6: Won five to nothing yesterday despite being an arrest advantage.
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: But you know, when you have Cam Schlitzler, that doesn't
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: really it doesn't even matter if you have a rest
• 11:46
  Speaker 6: disadvantage or not. Yankees also have the better bullpen here.
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: The Reds bullpen is bad. Yankees use three guys out
• 11:54
  Speaker 6: of there's yesterday the Reds only used two, so they're rested.
• 11:57
  Speaker 6: But The Reds are ranked dead lass and bullpen and WHIP,
• 12:01
  Speaker 6: but they're tied with Minnesota and WHIP and their era
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: is better than that, so I'll say Cincinnati is somewhere
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: in the bottom three or four bullpen, So there you go.
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: They're still very bad. The Yankees are ninth in bullpen.
• 12:15
  Speaker 6: They're pretty good.
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: Yankees are number two in offense.
• 12:18
  Speaker 6: The Reds are twenty fourth, so the Yankees have a
• 12:21
  Speaker 6: big advantage there. Two Yankees are gonna be a huge
• 12:24
  Speaker 6: favorite here, though, the only phase of this game where
• 12:28
  Speaker 6: the Yankees might not have the advantage of the starting pitching.
• 12:31
  Speaker 6: But the starting pitching is debatable here. Andrew Abbot is
• 12:36
  Speaker 6: pitching for the Reds. He's not been as good this
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: year as he has been in his previous seasons. He's
• 12:41
  Speaker 6: got a three point nine to five RA, which is fine,
• 12:44
  Speaker 6: but a one point four to one WHIP is not good.
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: He is good on the road, though, three point eight
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: Roady Ray.
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: He's been okay recently really, going through the beginning of
• 12:56
  Speaker 6: or going in going all the way back to late
• 12:59
  Speaker 6: eight bro. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: every single start, but his walk number is too high.
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: He's got to do something about that. Even recently, his
• 13:09
  Speaker 6: walk number has been too high. His strikeout rate has
• 13:11
  Speaker 6: gone up a little bit recently because on the course
• 13:13
  Speaker 6: of the season he has a low strikeout rate. His
• 13:16
  Speaker 6: walk rate is too high, and his hit rate is okay.
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: But really it's the walks that are the biggest concern.
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: He's not really a huge strikeout pitcher, but he's got
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: to do something about the walks. His numbers against the
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: Yankees are not good, though, in forty at bats three
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: hundred average, allowed eight h three ops, ten to five
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: strike out walk ratio. I'm not really expecting Abbott to
• 13:36
  Speaker 6: do that well. Here.
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: Will Warren is pitching for the Yankees.
• 13:40
  Speaker 6: He's been okay, but he's getting a little bit worse
• 13:42
  Speaker 6: as well. Three point four to seven e RA, one
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: point two to nine WHIP, not as good at home
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: three point nine to six homey RA. This month, he
• 13:53
  Speaker 6: has a six to five strikeout walk ratio and has
• 13:55
  Speaker 6: failed to make it five innings in both of his outings.
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: Threw way too many pitches and both of them was
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: approaching one hundred pitches in both against Cleveland and Toronto.
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: That's not a good sign. Those are not good offenses,
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: but those were both road games. I don't know if
• 14:09
  Speaker 6: there's a whole lot to take away from that. Last
• 14:12
  Speaker 6: year he was way better at home, I'm pretty sure,
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: than on the road, although like I said, this year
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: it's actually the opposite.
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: So that's not a good sign.
• 14:21
  Speaker 6: That he pitched poorly on the road in those two
• 14:23
  Speaker 6: starts against weak offenses. Cincinnati doesn't really have much experience
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: against him, though three of their heroes have faced and
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: they're only one for ten. The only hit is a
• 14:33
  Speaker 6: single from Nathaniel Lowe three to two strikeout walk ratio. Obviously,
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: that's a one hundred average three fifty ops. So Warren
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: does have the better matchup here based on the numbers
• 14:45
  Speaker 6: and the fact that he's unfamiliar to Cincinnati, which might
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: give him a little bit of an advantage here.
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: Yankees obviously the better team.
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: But you're paying a huge price for this minus two
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: pH five looks like it's around what the number is here.
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: I don't think you can lay that type of price
• 15:02
  Speaker 6: with Will Warren man. I just think it's too heavy
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: of a price. You're getting tax for the Yankees because
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: it's the Yankees. Eighty eight percent of the tickets and
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: cash on the Yankees.
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think the Yankees.
• 15:14
  Speaker 6: Likely win, but that price is way too high. The
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: money is definitely backing the over, and maybe that is
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: a way to.
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: Look at this game.
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: Fifty two the tickets on the under, eighty six percent
• 15:26
  Speaker 6: of the cash on the over totals at nine and
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: a half. Here, I think, you know, I feel like
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: a broken record, but I think this is a game
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: where Warren I think is more difficult to figure out.
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: In this game, I think it's more likely that the
• 15:39
  Speaker 6: Yankees just get some runs against Abbott plus Cincinnati's train
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: wreck of a bullpen, So I think Yankees over team
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: total makes.
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: Sense in this game. That might be the way I
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: would look at this one.
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: You'll probably need him to get You might need him
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: to get to six runs though, if you want that,
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: but they're certainly capable of that. I mean, they score
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: almost that as an average home this year, So I
• 16:01
  Speaker 6: think that's what makes the most sense in that game.
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: Oklahoma in the Championship, is it a series? Do they
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: play multiple games or is it a single game?
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: I don't even know.
• 16:12
  Speaker 6: A single game would allow for a lot of variants.
• 16:18
  Speaker 6: Toronto at Chicago Cubs, I don't know what happened yesterday.
• 16:22
  Speaker 6: The Cubs won in that afternoon game sixteen to two,
• 16:25
  Speaker 6: and I'm pretty sure that that was Gaustman on the mound.
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: I don't know what happened to Gaustman in that game yesterday.
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: Man if it was him, I don't know what that was,
• 16:35
  Speaker 6: but it looks like he was either out of the
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: game really earlier. I don't know what that was. But
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: Toronto has had some heavy bullpen usage. He was five
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: guys out of the bullpen yesterday and a lot in
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: the recent days too. This is not a bullpen that
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: you really want to back right now. Chicago used three
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: guys out of the bullpen and they rested their whole
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: bullpen the day before that. So the Cubs have a
• 16:57
  Speaker 6: better bullpen and the more rested bullpen, and they're the
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: tenth ranked bullpen Toronto's thirteenth. But the Cubs do have
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: a I think kind of a significant bullpen edge here
• 17:07
  Speaker 6: given the rest scenario. Cubs number seven in offense, they're
• 17:11
  Speaker 6: significantly better there Toronto number twenty three. So the Cubs
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: do have some advantages here. Patrick Korban is on the
• 17:19
  Speaker 6: mouth for the Blue Jays. He's not very good four
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: point five to seven e RA, one point four to
• 17:24
  Speaker 6: eight WHIP. He's better on the road though, three point
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: five to seven roady RA. But I wouldn't trust him
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: at all right now. He's got a seven to six
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio this month. Granted he's faced some difficult
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: opponents here, the Braves, the Yankees, Philly. I mean, I
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: guess they're capable at least in putting up offense. These
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: command numbers are just really bad for KORbin here, and
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: he's not even made it through four innings in his
• 17:50
  Speaker 6: last two outings. He's not in good form right now.
• 17:53
  Speaker 6: I would not want to want anything to do with
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: him here. He's got a high hit rate on the season,
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: his walk rate's not great, and his strikeout rate is
• 18:00
  Speaker 6: really low.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: He's just not very good numbers.
• 18:03
  Speaker 6: Against the Cubs. Also back that up, those are not
• 18:06
  Speaker 6: good either. One hundred and fifty five at bats against them,
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: so they're very familiar with them.
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: A few of their guys rake against them.
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: He's got twenty four strikeouts, fifteen walks, three sixteen average
• 18:17
  Speaker 6: nine to fifty one ops against them. The Cubs likely
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: are gonna be able to do some offensive damage here.
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: Conforto and Swanson both have a ton of at bats
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: against him. They both absolutely I don't know if I
• 18:29
  Speaker 6: would say absolutely, but they both do a lot of
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: damage against him. So do with that info what you want.
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: Maybe the hitter props on those guys. Hits plus runs
• 18:39
  Speaker 6: plus RBIs is what I recommend there when you're going
• 18:42
  Speaker 6: over on a hitter prop, because then the walk might
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: not be wasted because it doesn't count as a total base.
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: Colin Ray is pitching for the Cubs, though, do you
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: really want to back him?
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: I don't know about that.
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: Five point three five VRA and one point four to
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: six whip not good. But he is good at home
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: three point zero three home he RA, so there is that.
• 19:03
  Speaker 6: But he's failed to make it five innings in his
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: last two starts. One was at Course Field. Maybe give
• 19:09
  Speaker 6: him a pass for that, But then he did it
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: again at San Francisco. That's not a good sign. That's
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: a pitcher friendly ballpark. A week offense.
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: This is not good.
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: He's got eight walks seven strikeouts this month. That's not good.
• 19:23
  Speaker 6: He's not in command right now. He's not pitching well
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: right now.
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: He's got a.
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: Pretty high hit rate on the season, walk rate is okay,
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: strikeout rate is low. He's just not great, although he
• 19:33
  Speaker 6: does actually do well against Toronto, but it's in a
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: small sample. Six hitters have faced him seventeen at bats
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: one seventy six average five to seventy five ops. It's
• 19:45
  Speaker 6: hard to gauge man because Ray does have the better
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: matchup numbers here, So the Cubs as a side makes
• 19:51
  Speaker 6: some sense here. You know, I wouldn't disagree with the Cubs.
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: It looks like the money is completely disagreeing though. Seventy
• 19:59
  Speaker 6: five percent of the tickets on the Cubs, eighty nine
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: percent of the cash on Toronto. Do do you seriously
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: want to back Corbin here? I would not want to.
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: Money's also coming in on.
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: The over.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: Cubs, by the way, or at about minus one thirty
• 20:15
  Speaker 6: here on the money line, I think the Cubs money
• 20:17
  Speaker 6: line makes some sense.
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: I also do agree with the over.
• 20:21
  Speaker 6: I mean, I think both starting pitchers are kind of
• 20:24
  Speaker 6: fadable here, so over nine makes some sense as well.
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: Seventy percent of the tickets ninety five percent of the
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: cash on the over. But if you combine those two
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: and Ray could pitch well here due to his matchup
• 20:36
  Speaker 6: numbers whatever. Perhaps the best approach here is Cubs team
• 20:40
  Speaker 6: total over you know, it sounds like a broken record. Again,
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: I don't really do team totals as my you know,
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: actual plays. Maybe I should, because you know, I think
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: I have a decent gauge on this, and baseball has
• 20:52
  Speaker 6: been really really good for me this season.
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: But mostly with totals and sides.
• 20:57
  Speaker 6: Obviously from all totals and sides for me, lot of totals,
• 21:01
  Speaker 6: but yeah, team totals, you know, are just kind of
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: a natural result of thinking about the total and the
• 21:08
  Speaker 6: side though, So Cubs over team total makes some sense
• 21:11
  Speaker 6: here as well. You'll need them to probably score five
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: runs in that one if you if you want them,
• 21:18
  Speaker 6: it's doable obviously, So something like that maybe, uh, hold
• 21:23
  Speaker 6: on second here, best of three is the College World Series.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the Cubs. No, I would not back Corn.
• 21:33
  Speaker 6: There's almost no scenario where I'm gonna be back in
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: corb and he has to have good matchup numbers, probably
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: has to be in a good split for him whatever.
• 21:43
  Speaker 6: San Diego and Texas. You know, I mentioned yesterday this
• 21:45
  Speaker 6: looks like an under type of series. This game could
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: possibly be an under here, but I don't think I
• 21:52
  Speaker 6: want to risk it on this one. Watched this game
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: go under though after yesterday's under was a bust, even
• 21:58
  Speaker 6: though it was just because the first was terrible. Texas
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday, San Diego
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: used four. San Diego did not use Mason Miller, though
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: Texas did use I think their closers lots. I don't
• 22:12
  Speaker 6: know if that's who their closer is or not, but
• 22:14
  Speaker 6: they did use him yesterday. Texas still is a good
• 22:17
  Speaker 6: bullpen though the eighth in bullpens, San Diego seventh. These
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: are both good bullpens, though they're both I think like
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: top five bullpens. I would say San Diego's number two
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: in ERA and Texas is not that far behind that.
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: Neither offense is good Texas twenty second, San Diego dead last, thirtieth.
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: Texas doesn't hit well at home. Texas does typically pitch.
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: Well at home.
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: If you want the under here, you're gonna have to
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: deal with Walker Bueller, though I don't know if I'd
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: really want to do that. He's got a four point
• 22:47
  Speaker 6: one four ERA one point three to four whip is
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: not very good. He's not good on the road five
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: point four road Ray but I think part of the
• 22:54
  Speaker 6: reason why he's better at home is San Diego is
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: a very pitcher friendly ballpark, and we know Texas is
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: also a very pitcher friendly ballpark, so he at least
• 23:04
  Speaker 6: draws a good environment to pitch in here. And Bueller
• 23:08
  Speaker 6: has allowed only one run and each of his starts
• 23:10
  Speaker 6: this month, so he is actually pitching all right right now.
• 23:13
  Speaker 6: Fifteen to four strike out walk ratio over that span.
• 23:16
  Speaker 6: He has been a little bit too hittable, though two
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: of those starts have been on the road, so you
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: got to give him credit for that, and the one
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: start where he didn't make it five innings was at home,
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: so you know, do with that info what you want.
• 23:29
  Speaker 6: I guess he's got a slightly high hit rate, his
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: walk rate is a bit too high, strike out rate
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: is still fairly low. I mean, he's not what he
• 23:37
  Speaker 6: was earlier in his career, Like his Tommy John surgery
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: and whatever has definitely taking something off of his stuff.
• 23:43
  Speaker 6: His numbers against Texas are pretty good, though in fifty
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: nine at bats one eighty six average allowed five to
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: sixty one ops. Fifteen to six strike out walk ratio
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: is not terrific, but the rest of these numbers are
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: pretty good. I think Bueller might be able to pitch
• 23:57
  Speaker 6: okay here. I mean he is in better form right now.
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: This is a This is a good draw for him,
• 24:02
  Speaker 6: at least as far as a Road started, he was
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: good and his last two Roads starts. Nathan Yavaldi is
• 24:08
  Speaker 6: pitching for Texas. He's still got to get his RA down,
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: but his whip kind of indicates that his ERA should
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: be better than it is at four point two three.
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: His whip is one point.
• 24:18
  Speaker 6: One seven, so he is He's still having a pretty
• 24:21
  Speaker 6: decent season here, although not numbers that are fantastic like
• 24:24
  Speaker 6: they were last year. He's been a little bit worse
• 24:27
  Speaker 6: at home, oddly four point five home ERA, but he's
• 24:31
  Speaker 6: pitched well. I don't know, man, I mean, he had
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: a couple of if he starts in here, but his
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: strike got walk ratio remains good. So even though he
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: gave up some runs, I think he got unlucky other
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: than one start where he got actually hit pretty hard
• 24:43
  Speaker 6: by Saint Louis, but still had good command numbers there.
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: The rest of his starts, he's still got his command.
• 24:50
  Speaker 6: Sixteen to five strike out walk ratio this month pretty good,
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: but he's allowed more than one hit per inning, but
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: all because of that Saint Louis start. So I think
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: if you throw that out, Evaldi is actually better than
• 25:01
  Speaker 6: his era looks. He's got a decent strikeout rate on
• 25:03
  Speaker 6: the season, he gets a lot of ground ball outs,
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: low hit rate, walk rate is okay with him being
• 25:10
  Speaker 6: a ground ball pitcher. Though I don't know how he
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: has so many home runs allowed. These are like I
• 25:15
  Speaker 6: don't know, it's it's very weird to see pitching numbers
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: like this.
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: I don't think there's.
• 25:18
  Speaker 6: Any other guy who's allowed that many home runs but
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: also as a ground ball pitcher, so it's very very strange.
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: But I don't know.
• 25:26
  Speaker 6: He's got to get those home runs down somehow. San
• 25:29
  Speaker 6: Diego might not be a team that's gonna hit home
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: runs off him. Though San Diego has sixty two at
• 25:35
  Speaker 6: bats against him, they only have two home runs over
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: that entire span. From France and Machado, they got a
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: two ten average against them, six to twelve ops, thirteen
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: to four strike out walk ratio. That's not excellent, but
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: really most of those numbers are pretty good. I think
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: this game is probably still an under that would probably
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: be the way I would look at this, all of
• 25:55
  Speaker 6: the money he's coming in on the over seventy seven
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: percent of the tickets, ninety four percent of the cash
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: the over.
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 26:01
  Speaker 6: Both pictures look like they get a good draw here
• 26:04
  Speaker 6: as far as their matchup, and whatever undermakes sense to me.
• 26:08
  Speaker 6: I don't like it as much as I liked yesterday
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: and Yesterday's you know, bombed because of the first ending,
• 26:14
  Speaker 6: but whatever, the total seven and a half in this one.
• 26:17
  Speaker 6: Texas is also favored at minus one thirty something, seventy
• 26:20
  Speaker 6: eight percent of the tickets eighty nine percent of the
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: cash on them. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with Texas here.
• 26:27
  Speaker 6: I mean I think generally Evaldi is the better pitcher
• 26:30
  Speaker 6: over Bueller. The bullpen advantage is probably with San Diego, though,
• 26:35
  Speaker 6: uh because they didn't use their highest leverage arms yesterday,
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: so something to keep in mind. It is close, though
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: both bullpens are good, so UH do with that info
• 26:45
  Speaker 6: what you want. As I always say, Cubs have the
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: better offense. They've struggled. They have struggled recently, though they
• 26:54
  Speaker 6: might be able to break out of it against uh
• 26:57
  Speaker 6: Patrick Corbin though, and Toronto's offense is not been good.
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: Next game up will be one of my plays in baseball.
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: Here with Milwaukee and Atlanta. We were supposed to have
• 27:07
  Speaker 6: an elite pitching matchup yesterday between Mizerowski and Sale, and
• 27:12
  Speaker 6: by the way, Atlanta won that game. And I told
• 27:14
  Speaker 6: you I thought there was value on Atlanta in that
• 27:17
  Speaker 6: game because Missierowski just gets you have to pay premium
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: for Mizierowski. And the game was close and Atlanta wound
• 27:23
  Speaker 6: up winning the game. So but this game, this is
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: an elite pitching matchup today, and people might not realize
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: that one side of it is as elite as it is.
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: This is one of my plays, and you probably already
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: know what it is because I said it's going to
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: be obvious, and I don't like the obvious. Maybe it's
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: too obvious, but this is an under for me. I
• 27:43
  Speaker 6: found under seven and a half at minus one point
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: fifteen at the book that used to be ESPN's book,
• 27:51
  Speaker 6: if you know what I mean. A certain app, a
• 27:54
  Speaker 6: certain scoreboard app brought bought it out, if you know
• 27:58
  Speaker 6: what I mean, for whatever reason, that had this number,
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: but every other book looked like it was at seven.
• 28:04
  Speaker 6: But I would still agree with the under seven. Here
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: I think this looks like a very low scoring game here.
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: This is an elite.
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: Pitching matchup here. We have two good bullpens. I know
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: yesterday's game went under as well. It was a three
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: to two final. Milwaukee on these two guys out of
• 28:18
  Speaker 6: the bullpen yesterday, did not use their closer yesterday. Atlanta
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: has an elite bullpen these three guys.
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: I think they did use.
• 28:26
  Speaker 6: Their closer to finish the game off, but they have
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: an elite bullpen. They're number one, so we'll roll with
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: their bullpen. Milwaukee's number eleven, but they have a top
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: several bullpen ERA, so we'll roll with both bullpens here. Yes,
• 28:40
  Speaker 6: both offenses are capable. Atlanta number six, Milwaukee tied in
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: eighth with the White Sox. But I think these pitchers
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: can definitely deal in this game. So I think the
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: offenses will be held will be limited in this game.
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: Let's say Kyle Harrison is pitching for the Brewers. He's
• 28:57
  Speaker 6: having an excellent season two point four ERA one point
• 29:01
  Speaker 6: one whip. I know is roadyra is four point five
• 29:04
  Speaker 6: to six, but I think you should not be scared
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: away by that because he has very limited road appearances
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: and it was all one start pitching in that Las
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: Vegas stadium. That was that twenty nine run game against
• 29:18
  Speaker 6: the A's. He wasn't good in that outing. I would
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: just throw that away completely. I don't think you could
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: take anything away from that. He bounced back really nicely
• 29:26
  Speaker 6: with a six inning shutout against Philly the next time out,
• 29:29
  Speaker 6: so I'm not worried about that that much. Plus, he
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: had thrown a hundred pitches to start before that, which
• 29:35
  Speaker 6: I think was the first time he'd done that. Oh no,
• 29:37
  Speaker 6: it was the second time he'd done that this season.
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: But maybe he was a little bit gasped. But it
• 29:41
  Speaker 6: was just a weird environment to have to go to,
• 29:43
  Speaker 6: so I'm going to give him a pass for that.
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: His other road starts, he had a really good one
• 29:47
  Speaker 6: against the Cobs, a good one against Washington earlier in
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: the season. Detroit and Kansas City. I mean, those aren't
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: great offenses, but Kansas City is better at home. Wasn't
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: great against Detroit, but whatever it was in April, and
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: then Washington and Chicago Cubs, those teams both can definitely hit.
• 30:05
  Speaker 6: So the fact that he did well when both those
• 30:07
  Speaker 6: starts is a good sign. With his road appearances. Again,
• 30:11
  Speaker 6: his numbers are all just skewed by that A's start,
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: and the Braves have not really done much against him.
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: They have eighteen at bats against him across six batters,
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: no extra base hits, five strikeouts, no walks, one sixty
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: seven average three thirty three ops. And this is even better,
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: I think because Harrison has not faced them this year,
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: so these.
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: Numbers are all in.
• 30:32
  Speaker 6: They're in the past, like when Harrison was on the
• 30:35
  Speaker 6: Giants and he wasn't pitching.
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: At an elite level like he is right now.
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: So the fact that these hitters didn't even do damage
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: against him when he wasn't as good, that's a good
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: sign here. I think he should pitch well here. Meanwhile,
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: Chris Sale is pitching for Atlanta, obviously not going out
• 30:51
  Speaker 6: on a limb saying that he should pitch well here.
• 30:54
  Speaker 6: Two point three ERA one point zero five whip for him.
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: He's been really good at home one point two to
• 30:59
  Speaker 6: six home. By the way, Atlanta their offense has not
• 31:02
  Speaker 6: been as good at home this year, so that helps
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: Harrison as well.
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: Just throwing that out there.
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: Sale was a bit iffy two starts to go against Toronto.
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: I don't know what happened in that start, but he
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: was way too hittable there. Still had a good strikeout
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: rate though, but he bounced back had a better start
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: last time at the White Sox, which is not an
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: easy task, but he was able to get through. That
• 31:23
  Speaker 6: start wasn't as great as start, but it was good enough.
• 31:27
  Speaker 6: I mean, Sale has been really good all season. He's
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: allowed more than twouring runs only twice more than three
• 31:32
  Speaker 6: ear and runs only once in a weird outlier start
• 31:35
  Speaker 6: at Anaheim, where he's still had a lot of strikeouts.
• 31:38
  Speaker 6: He's got a high strikeout rate, low hit rate, his
• 31:41
  Speaker 6: walk rate's fairly low as well. Just good numbers across
• 31:44
  Speaker 6: the board, and he also has good numbers well. His
• 31:46
  Speaker 6: numbers are mostly good against Milwaukee, let's say seventy six
• 31:50
  Speaker 6: at bats. They do actually have contact hitting against him,
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: and that is what Milwaukee does.
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: They're a contact hitting team. They don't hit for power. Really.
• 31:58
  Speaker 6: They do have a two seventy six average against him,
• 32:00
  Speaker 6: which that concerns me slightly because that is kind of high.
• 32:03
  Speaker 6: But a six ninety three OPS is pretty low, especially
• 32:06
  Speaker 6: given what that batting average is. And he's got a
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: twenty eight to seven strike up walk ratio against them.
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: So I do still think Sale does have the upper
• 32:14
  Speaker 6: hand against this line up here. We're gonna go with it.
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: We'll go with the under in this one. The money
• 32:21
  Speaker 6: looks like it doesn't totally agree. Fifty nine percent of
• 32:24
  Speaker 6: the tickets, sixty one percent of the cash on the
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: over total, like I said, is somewhere between seven and
• 32:30
  Speaker 6: seven and a half here. The money is also backing Milwaukee,
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: which kind of makes sense because Harrison is the lesser
• 32:37
  Speaker 6: known pitcher here, Like, you're probably paying a little bit
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: of a price for Sale here a minus one thirty four,
• 32:42
  Speaker 6: especially after yesterday. Oh, Atlanta beat Mizzierowski. Of course they
• 32:46
  Speaker 6: can beat whoever this Harrison guy is, especially with Sale
• 32:50
  Speaker 6: on the mound, you know what I mean. I don't
• 32:52
  Speaker 6: know if that's the right way to look at it.
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: I mean, I wouldn't really disagree with Milwaukee here. Plus,
• 32:56
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee does have their highest leverage bullpen arms of ABO
• 33:00
  Speaker 6: sixty eight percent of the tickets on Atlanta ninety three
• 33:03
  Speaker 6: percent of the casual Milwaukee. I think Harrison could definitely
• 33:05
  Speaker 6: duel Sale here, and he has the better matchup numbers too,
• 33:09
  Speaker 6: So I don't disagree with Milwaukee here. But under is
• 33:13
  Speaker 6: uh is my call on that game. We gotta get
• 33:16
  Speaker 6: back to it, man, Let's let's get these right. SOB,
• 33:19
  Speaker 6: what's up? You have Philly Feeley in the UFC by
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: decision excuse you had a huge underdog Price Lima in
• 33:29
  Speaker 6: a knockout and fight just uh wait what.
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: Fight to start? Round? Oh? The so round two at
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: least begins? Okay?
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so the fight goes longer than one round basically at.
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: Plus six point fifty.
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: So that's a that's basically like one of those parlay
• 33:47
  Speaker 6: type of bets. Like it's one of those I don't
• 33:50
  Speaker 6: know what you call it, but a lot of books
• 33:52
  Speaker 6: will allow you to like they'll just throw odds out
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: there on it, but they basically they kind of do
• 33:57
  Speaker 6: screw you though they basically give you parlay odds on those.
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: So I don't like those combo bets like that. Even
• 34:04
  Speaker 6: though it looks like you're getting good odds on it,
• 34:06
  Speaker 6: you really aren't.
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: And then Sterling.
• 34:10
  Speaker 6: Navajo Sterling over one and a half rounds at plus
• 34:14
  Speaker 6: one hundred, all right, so that that fight to go
• 34:17
  Speaker 6: deeper into the fight, all right? Those are sobs UFC
• 34:21
  Speaker 6: plays there. I don't know anything about the UFC, so
• 34:26
  Speaker 6: I have no comment on that except for the parlay one.
• 34:29
  Speaker 6: I just don't like anything that is essentially a parlay. Garrett, Yes,
• 34:35
  Speaker 6: you're rooting for the Braves first five under. I don't
• 34:39
  Speaker 6: like it as much because you're looking at like a
• 34:41
  Speaker 6: three or a three and a half there. Why would
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: I do that when you have two good bullpens here.
• 34:45
  Speaker 6: Both starters probably get further than five innings in the game.
• 34:50
  Speaker 6: I wouldn't disagree with it, but I think the full
• 34:52
  Speaker 6: game is the better option.
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Wait, what's a prop bet? What are you talking about? Well?
• 35:02
  Speaker 6: No, well, like it's it's a combination of two props though,
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: so it's basically a parlay. They probably put it up
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: there under the prop section or whatever, but it's two
• 35:11
  Speaker 6: It's like two outcomes that aren't really correlated to each other, right,
• 35:18
  Speaker 6: I mean, in fact, they're actually probably not correlated because
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: you're looking for a knockout, but the fight to also
• 35:25
  Speaker 6: get into the second round. You know, those seem kind
• 35:29
  Speaker 6: of contradictory because if you're expecting a knockout, you're kind
• 35:33
  Speaker 6: of you sort of are expecting that to happen possibly
• 35:36
  Speaker 6: early in the fight.
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: You know what, I mean, I don't know. That seems contradictory.
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 35:41
  Speaker 6: I don't know enough about fighting, I guess, but yes,
• 35:44
  Speaker 6: it's a prop bet, but it's a combination of two.
• 35:48
  Speaker 6: So they're basically giving you parlay odds on it, you
• 35:51
  Speaker 6: know what I mean, Like they're not giving you a
• 35:52
  Speaker 6: good enough odds on that.
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: San Francisco and Miami.
• 35:57
  Speaker 6: I actually forgot to handicap this, so I'm gonna do
• 36:00
  Speaker 6: it on the fly here. Miami won the game yesterday
• 36:03
  Speaker 6: four to three, despite being in a return home spot.
• 36:06
  Speaker 6: I kind of like San Francisco in that game yesterday,
• 36:08
  Speaker 6: although I think I would have I don't know. I
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: think I probably did lean full game because it was
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: a Miami bullpen game. But Miami's bullpen is pretty good.
• 36:18
  Speaker 6: But yeah, Miami used literally everybody. They use eight guys
• 36:22
  Speaker 6: out of the bullpen yesterday, so I would not want
• 36:24
  Speaker 6: to back their bullpen here in this game, even if
• 36:27
  Speaker 6: it is good.
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: San Francisco used four.
• 36:30
  Speaker 6: Their bullpen is a bit more rested, although it's not
• 36:32
  Speaker 6: very good. Miami's number four in bullpen here because they
• 36:35
  Speaker 6: had a good game yesterday and basically pitched the entire game.
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: San Francisco twenty fifth, although I think they're better than
• 36:43
  Speaker 6: that at least, but they're not a great bullpen this year.
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: Miami is nineteenth in offense.
• 36:48
  Speaker 6: San Francisco is twelfth, though though I don't trust San
• 36:51
  Speaker 6: Francisco's offense. Like I said, I don't think they're actually good.
• 36:55
  Speaker 6: Trevor McDonald is getting the start for the Giants. His
• 36:59
  Speaker 6: numbers are getting on four point six four ERA, one
• 37:02
  Speaker 6: point twenty nine whip is not great. He's been good
• 37:05
  Speaker 6: on the road, though, three point twenty seven road the RAY.
• 37:08
  Speaker 6: I don't know what is up with these Giants pitchers
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: not pitching well at home, even though it's a pitcher
• 37:12
  Speaker 6: friendly stadium.
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: I don't understand it. McDonald wasn't good in his last.
• 37:16
  Speaker 6: Start against the Cubs, but the Cubs were facing him
• 37:18
  Speaker 6: twice in a row.
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: Maybe you give him a pass for that.
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: But he also has walked nine guys in his last
• 37:24
  Speaker 6: thirteen and two thirds innings across three starts. That is
• 37:27
  Speaker 6: not good. In addition to allowing more than one hit
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: per inning. Strike out rate has been high, but his
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: walk rate's gone up. He's just not in good form
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: right now. Granted that was against Milwaukee and then the
• 37:38
  Speaker 6: Cubs twice. Miami is not as good offensively as those
• 37:42
  Speaker 6: To those two teams, McDonald fewer than one hit all
• 37:46
  Speaker 6: out per inning, which is fine. His walk rate isn't
• 37:48
  Speaker 6: too bad. His strike out rate is okay, so his
• 37:51
  Speaker 6: overall numbers are still okay. He's a pretty extreme ground
• 37:55
  Speaker 6: ball pitcher too, although again sometimes that can mask other
• 37:58
  Speaker 6: problems like being David Peterson. McDonald has not been seen
• 38:04
  Speaker 6: before by Miami. You know, I actually tend to lean
• 38:07
  Speaker 6: more towards McDonald actually pitching well here because I think
• 38:11
  Speaker 6: he's still got okay stuff. He looked pretty good last year.
• 38:14
  Speaker 6: This is an easier pitching matchup for him. He's unfamiliar
• 38:18
  Speaker 6: to them, so that helps as well, and his overall
• 38:21
  Speaker 6: numbers are still not really that bad, so I actually
• 38:23
  Speaker 6: think he might pitch okay here. Max Meyer is pitching
• 38:26
  Speaker 6: for the Marlins. He's the better pitcher. Two point seven
• 38:29
  Speaker 6: to five VRRA, one point one two whip. He's been
• 38:32
  Speaker 6: really good at home one point nine to seven home
• 38:34
  Speaker 6: y RA. He is in good form currently as well,
• 38:38
  Speaker 6: a lot of strikeouts recently, fairly low hit rate, recently,
• 38:42
  Speaker 6: walk gray slightly high, but not too bad. He's allowed
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: two or fewer and runs, and all three starts this month,
• 38:48
  Speaker 6: his team has won all three of them. Face a
• 38:50
  Speaker 6: couple of decent offenses in there too, and Washington and Pittsburgh.
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: Washington not good at home, which is where that was,
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: though offensively not as.
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: Good at home.
• 39:00
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh is really good offensively at home, and Meyers shut
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: them down. Meyer's got a high strike cut rate on
• 39:06
  Speaker 6: the season, really low hit rate. His walk rate is
• 39:09
  Speaker 6: a little bit too high though, so that's what you
• 39:12
  Speaker 6: get out of him. He is generally good, though against
• 39:15
  Speaker 6: San Francisco. Shockingly, this is not a good offense, but
• 39:18
  Speaker 6: he has not done well against them. Twenty one at bats.
• 39:21
  Speaker 6: They have a four to twenty nine average, one than
• 39:24
  Speaker 6: seventy four ohps against him. Yeah, I mean, on the surface,
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: this looks like an under game, but I would not
• 39:30
  Speaker 6: want to back Meyer right now here. He faced San
• 39:33
  Speaker 6: Francisco this year though, and he did well, so I
• 39:36
  Speaker 6: don't know where the hell those numbers are coming from.
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: He went five innings at San Francisco earlier this year,
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: allowed nowhere and runs, although his team lost the game
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: because the bullpen, I guess blew it. Five strikeouts, one walk,
• 39:49
  Speaker 6: four hits allowed. That was a fine outing from him,
• 39:51
  Speaker 6: So I don't know where those San Francisco numbers are
• 39:53
  Speaker 6: coming from. I think this does look like an under
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: game here if I was gonna play it. But I
• 39:59
  Speaker 6: do have my concern. You know, the matchup numbers there,
• 40:02
  Speaker 6: McDonald being out of form here.
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: The money's backing the over a bit fifty.
• 40:07
  Speaker 6: Six percent of tickets, seventy one percent of the cash
• 40:09
  Speaker 6: on the over totals between seven and a half and eight.
• 40:12
  Speaker 6: But yeah, I would still lean under, but I probably
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: would actually make this one. This one, I would make
• 40:17
  Speaker 6: a first five inning under because Miami used their entire
• 40:20
  Speaker 6: bullpen yesterday. I don't want to deal with that, and
• 40:23
  Speaker 6: I don't love San Francisco's bullpen either, So first five under,
• 40:27
  Speaker 6: I think is the way I would lean in this one.
• 40:29
  Speaker 6: Miami is also getting the money seventy five percent of tickets,
• 40:32
  Speaker 6: eighty eight percent of the cash on them. They are
• 40:34
  Speaker 6: minus one thirty something here. I agree that Meyer is
• 40:37
  Speaker 6: generally the better of the two pitchers here, the more
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: established picture, but I don't love the matchup stats, so
• 40:44
  Speaker 6: I don't know if I would.
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: I want to back Miami.
• 40:46
  Speaker 6: There parlay odds, Yeah, Lima is a flyweight. Yeah, these
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: these guys that don't weigh that much, you usually do
• 40:58
  Speaker 6: not get a knot like the chances of a knockout
• 41:01
  Speaker 6: or less in these lower weight classes. I know that
• 41:06
  Speaker 6: much at least.
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean I don't know.
• 41:10
  Speaker 6: I don't know what I'm doing in UFC, though, which
• 41:12
  Speaker 6: is why, which is why I don't do it.
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: Washington at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay did get the win yesterday.
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: That was a no play here on the show yesterday
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: because I wanted Cavali. I you know, when I don't
• 41:25
  Speaker 6: specify it, like I said, you want to pick both
• 41:27
  Speaker 6: starters must start because they are a big part of
• 41:30
  Speaker 6: the handicap.
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: Usually that was one of those cases.
• 41:33
  Speaker 6: But Cavali got pushed back to today because of an illness,
• 41:36
  Speaker 6: so Tampa Bay wound up winning somewhat because they got
• 41:41
  Speaker 6: to face Micholas in the game instead.
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, there's no way I would have wanted to.
• 41:44
  Speaker 6: Back me Cholas, So that's a huge downgrade from Cavali,
• 41:48
  Speaker 6: even though Cavally is kind of mediocre. But maybe Washington
• 41:52
  Speaker 6: is backable in this game today. After Tampa did win yesterday,
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: Washington only used one guy out of the bullpen yesterday
• 42:00
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay used four. Neither bullpen is good though. Tampa
• 42:04
  Speaker 6: Bay is eighteenth, but their ERA is pretty bad, like
• 42:07
  Speaker 6: a bottom several era. Washington is where are they at
• 42:12
  Speaker 6: twenty fourth in bullpen, they're still the worst of the
• 42:15
  Speaker 6: two bullpens, but not by match. Washington is the better offense,
• 42:19
  Speaker 6: the ranked fifth. They're also a really good road offense
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: this year, and the team has a good road record.
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: As I pointed out yesterday, Tampa Bay is seventeenth in offense.
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: They've kind of fallen off.
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: Cade Cavali will get the start today unless he's still sick.
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: He's got a.
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: Three point nine to eighty RA one point three to
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: nine WHIP, a little bit worse on the road four
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: point two eight road RA, but pretty similar to what
• 42:42
  Speaker 6: his overall ERA is. He's been okay in his recent
• 42:46
  Speaker 6: starts yere. He's been going like five innings in every
• 42:49
  Speaker 6: one of them, allowing three runs on average in every start,
• 42:52
  Speaker 6: so he's keeping his team in the game basically thirteen
• 42:55
  Speaker 6: to four strike got walk razer over that's man pretty mediocre,
• 42:58
  Speaker 6: but not horrible. He's got a bit of a high
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: hit rate on the season. His walk rates slightly high
• 43:04
  Speaker 6: as well, like his whip is too high. I get
• 43:07
  Speaker 6: that he has strikeout stuff, though his strikeout rate is good,
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: and he's not an extreme fly ball pitcher either, and
• 43:13
  Speaker 6: that kind of tells you he does have stuff that
• 43:15
  Speaker 6: can fool guys at the major league level. Like I
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: said yesterday, So you know, I think he's better than
• 43:21
  Speaker 6: people think, although you know, maybe I guess you could
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: argue maybe he's about as good as his ra suggests
• 43:30
  Speaker 6: against Tampa Bay. As I pointed out yesterday, Tampa Bay
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: is very unfamiliar with him. They only have one hitoff
• 43:35
  Speaker 6: and which is a double from Masa. Mason Mullens are
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: the only guys that have faced and they're combined one
• 43:40
  Speaker 6: for six Offen with three strikeouts and no walks.
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: So I think Cavally does match up okay here.
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: He's unfamiliar to them, the guys that have face them
• 43:50
  Speaker 6: haven't really done damage against him. He's a little bit
• 43:53
  Speaker 6: better than people might think, So I think Cavally has
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: a decent matchup here. Ian Seymour is getting these art
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: for Tampa, but he's basically an opener and he hasn't
• 44:03
  Speaker 6: really been that good. He's got a four point nine
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: to three ERA one point two eight whip not great stuff.
• 44:08
  Speaker 6: There has been good at home though, two point nine
• 44:11
  Speaker 6: to five home e ray, but he's been basically an
• 44:13
  Speaker 6: opener and a relief pitcher the most he's gone his
• 44:16
  Speaker 6: four innings in any of these appearances, and they're kind
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: of limiting his pitches a lot. They did ramp him
• 44:21
  Speaker 6: up a little bit last time out, but he also
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: didn't pitch well at Anaheim. I don't really think Seymour
• 44:27
  Speaker 6: is trustworthy, man. I mean, there's a reason why he's
• 44:30
  Speaker 6: a relief pitcher and sort of an opener whatever. Like
• 44:33
  Speaker 6: I know, Tampa went with a bullpen game with some
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: success yesterday, but you're asking him to now do it
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: twice in a row.
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: I don't know about that.
• 44:42
  Speaker 6: Seymour does have good numbers against Washington, though, one seventy
• 44:45
  Speaker 6: six average, a lot four to seventy one oh ps
• 44:47
  Speaker 6: seventeen at bats, not a huge sample here. Most of
• 44:51
  Speaker 6: their hitters have faced him at least once though, six
• 44:54
  Speaker 6: zero strikeout walk ratio. I'm gonna leave Washington here slightly,
• 45:00
  Speaker 6: maybe just in the first five, because I don't want
• 45:02
  Speaker 6: to deal with their bullpen. Sixty percent of the tickets
• 45:04
  Speaker 6: are on Tampa and around minus one twenty kind of looks
• 45:07
  Speaker 6: too easy to play Tampa, especially after they won yesterday.
• 45:10
  Speaker 6: People are gonna be jumping on Tampa because their record
• 45:13
  Speaker 6: is better. But like I said, Washington is sneakily a
• 45:16
  Speaker 6: good road team here, and this might be a sneaky
• 45:19
  Speaker 6: matchup where you do have the starting pitching edge here.
• 45:22
  Speaker 6: If Cavally is healthy, at least getting over an illness
• 45:25
  Speaker 6: is easier than getting over an injury.
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: Though.
• 45:28
  Speaker 6: Fifty to fifty on the cash, so the money is
• 45:30
  Speaker 6: indicating on Washington.
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: Washington first five makes some sense to me there.
• 45:35
  Speaker 6: That game on ESPN Unlimited Next game up is my
• 45:39
  Speaker 6: last baseball play. And I'm talking about the obvious. This
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: one might also be too obvious. This is Mets Philadelphia.
• 45:50
  Speaker 6: You know what this is? This is an under as well,
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: under seven and a half. You can get a better
• 45:54
  Speaker 6: price on this one. I think maybe because Peralta is
• 45:57
  Speaker 6: not getting enough respect maybe in the market, or maybe
• 46:00
  Speaker 6: he's getting the right amount of respect. I don't know,
• 46:03
  Speaker 6: but I think this is gonna be an under. I
• 46:04
  Speaker 6: think you're gonna get a pitching match up here. We'll
• 46:07
  Speaker 6: keep the bullpens in as well. Because again, like I
• 46:10
  Speaker 6: said yesterday, these teams were off yesterday apparently because of
• 46:13
  Speaker 6: the World Cup, So I think that gives us a
• 46:15
  Speaker 6: little bit of an extra edge playing the under here
• 46:18
  Speaker 6: because the offenses have a chance to cool off, the
• 46:21
  Speaker 6: bullpens have a chance to rest, so I think having
• 46:23
  Speaker 6: the day off helps the under a bit here. The
• 46:26
  Speaker 6: Mets also have a pretty good bullpen whip's looking at
• 46:28
  Speaker 6: the wrong screen. Mets are number two in bullpen Whip now,
• 46:32
  Speaker 6: although they're tied with the Red Sox and Miami here,
• 46:35
  Speaker 6: and their era is worse than the Red Sox and
• 46:38
  Speaker 6: better than Miami's, but whatever, the Mets are a good bullpen.
• 46:41
  Speaker 6: Philly is not bad at twelfth, so I think we
• 46:44
  Speaker 6: can roll with both bullpens.
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: Here, especially since they're rested.
• 46:47
  Speaker 6: And we're looking at two week offenses to Philadelphia twenty seventh,
• 46:51
  Speaker 6: although they are better at home, I know, and the
• 46:53
  Speaker 6: Mets are twenty ninth. They have not been a good
• 46:55
  Speaker 6: offense this year, so I think we're looking at some
• 46:58
  Speaker 6: offenses that have had some trouble this year. This game
• 47:01
  Speaker 6: is on Fox, by the way, because it is a
• 47:03
  Speaker 6: big divisional matchup and a lot sometimes focus also kind
• 47:07
  Speaker 6: of lends itself towards an under like this might be
• 47:09
  Speaker 6: the type of game where maybe the public wants to
• 47:12
  Speaker 6: try and over Maybe not given what these teams have
• 47:15
  Speaker 6: done this year, but and maybe not given that Sanchez
• 47:18
  Speaker 6: is one of the pitchers here.
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: But still.
• 47:23
  Speaker 6: I think that like a big divisional matchup like this
• 47:26
  Speaker 6: on national TV, a lot of times you see like
• 47:28
  Speaker 6: more focused, deepfense, more intense pitching, you know, so hopefully
• 47:32
  Speaker 6: that can happen here. Freddy perraulta pitching for the Mets.
• 47:34
  Speaker 6: He is the less the lesser of the two pitchers here,
• 47:38
  Speaker 6: but I think he's still pretty good.
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: Three point ninety ra.
• 47:40
  Speaker 6: His whip is a little concerning though, one point three
• 47:44
  Speaker 6: because his walk number is too high, which has been
• 47:47
  Speaker 6: the case throughout his career. But he's been good on
• 47:49
  Speaker 6: the road this year two point seven to nine ROADI
• 47:51
  Speaker 6: ra maybe he's just kind of struggling to adapt to
• 47:54
  Speaker 6: pitching for the Mets, so I don't know. Maybe that's
• 47:56
  Speaker 6: why his home numbers are worse. He was fine in
• 47:59
  Speaker 6: a last out. It was against Atlanta at home, so
• 48:02
  Speaker 6: that's a good sign. Atlanta's a good road offense, and
• 48:05
  Speaker 6: he held him to one run in five innings, so
• 48:07
  Speaker 6: that's a good sign. Although he didn't strike out a
• 48:09
  Speaker 6: lot of guys. But he's been al right this month,
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: except he gave up six runs to Saint Louis, but
• 48:14
  Speaker 6: that was a bit of an outlier, Like they got
• 48:16
  Speaker 6: six runs off him on six hits and that was
• 48:18
  Speaker 6: in a met return home spot, so that was kind
• 48:21
  Speaker 6: of a weird spot, a bad spot, and he got
• 48:24
  Speaker 6: unlucky in that pitching outing, I would say, because he
• 48:27
  Speaker 6: did have five strikeouts and two walks, so he is
• 48:29
  Speaker 6: still pitching fine in my opinion. Here, He's got a
• 48:33
  Speaker 6: pretty low hit rate on the season, his walk rate
• 48:35
  Speaker 6: is too high, like I mentioned, his strikeout rate is decent,
• 48:39
  Speaker 6: but overall these are still pretty decent numbers. I mean,
• 48:41
  Speaker 6: he's a solid pitcher and against Philly he's been solid
• 48:44
  Speaker 6: throughout his career. Eighty four at bats, he telled him
• 48:47
  Speaker 6: to a really low one to fifty five batting average
• 48:50
  Speaker 6: in that big of a sample, So this looks like
• 48:52
  Speaker 6: a decent matchup for him here. The fact that Philly
• 48:55
  Speaker 6: has seen a good amount of him and they still
• 48:57
  Speaker 6: haven't really been able to figure him out. Six sixty one,
• 48:59
  Speaker 6: oh yes, isn't too bad either. Thirty eight to thirteen
• 49:03
  Speaker 6: strike out walk ratio. Again, Yeah, the walk number a
• 49:06
  Speaker 6: little bit questionable, but not horrible there, So I think
• 49:09
  Speaker 6: Peralto could do okay. But also we're backing Sanchez here,
• 49:12
  Speaker 6: who I think is gonna do the heavy lifting for
• 49:15
  Speaker 6: this under here. Sanchez has been a cy Young caliber
• 49:18
  Speaker 6: pitcher here one point eight two ERA, one point zero
• 49:22
  Speaker 6: nine whip.
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: He's been ridiculously good.
• 49:24
  Speaker 6: At home point nine home ERA, so we're in the
• 49:27
  Speaker 6: better of both pitchers splits here. Sanchez did have a
• 49:30
  Speaker 6: bit of a hurdle in his last down. He had
• 49:34
  Speaker 6: to go to Milwaukee and he give up eight hits,
• 49:36
  Speaker 6: four and runs in five to two thirds innings.
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: I think it was an outlier though. I mean, you
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: see how well he's been pitching this year.
• 49:42
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee's a tough opponent to have to face, and he
• 49:45
  Speaker 6: got no run support in that one. Prior to that,
• 49:48
  Speaker 6: he'd allowed two or fewer e runs in every start,
• 49:52
  Speaker 6: well every He's allowed two or fewer on runs in
• 49:54
  Speaker 6: all but two starts this entire season. Both of those
• 49:57
  Speaker 6: bad starts are on the road against capable offense sins.
• 50:00
  Speaker 6: The other was early in the season against the Cubs.
• 50:02
  Speaker 6: He went the entire month of May without allowing a run,
• 50:06
  Speaker 6: so I mean, obviously you had to expect a little
• 50:08
  Speaker 6: bit of regression there, but his numbers are still really
• 50:11
  Speaker 6: really good. Low hit rate, really low walk rate, and
• 50:15
  Speaker 6: I think the walks have been kind of an issue
• 50:17
  Speaker 6: with him in the past, but he's gotten that really
• 50:19
  Speaker 6: under wraps. Has a high strikeout rate too, and a
• 50:22
  Speaker 6: high ground ball rate, so he's got like pretty elite
• 50:26
  Speaker 6: numbers here all over the place, and his numbers against
• 50:29
  Speaker 6: the Mets, as you would expect, are pretty good. In
• 50:31
  Speaker 6: sixty eight at bats to twenty one average, six to
• 50:33
  Speaker 6: sixty one ops, twenty three to seven strikeout walk ratio.
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: We will back the under in this game.
• 50:41
  Speaker 6: Let me see, we have eighty three percent of the tickets,
• 50:45
  Speaker 6: ninety three percent of the cash on the over. I
• 50:47
  Speaker 6: don't know what to tell you about that action Network
• 50:50
  Speaker 6: made it look like the money was backing both unders
• 50:53
  Speaker 6: in these two plays and giving out, So do with
• 50:56
  Speaker 6: all that what you want.
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: But obviously, again the total is also low for a reason.
• 50:59
  Speaker 6: The oddsmakers know. Everybody knows that this is a good
• 51:02
  Speaker 6: pitching matchup. Although again when it seems too obvious, I
• 51:05
  Speaker 6: do start worrying a little bit, but sometimes I will
• 51:08
  Speaker 6: play unders on these elite pitching matchups if we're getting
• 51:11
  Speaker 6: you know, the key number there and whatever, which we
• 51:14
  Speaker 6: are here, So that's what we're gonna do. The money
• 51:17
  Speaker 6: is also fading Philly here, and I think that helps
• 51:19
  Speaker 6: the case for the under because Philly obviously has the
• 51:23
  Speaker 6: better pitcher here Sanchez ninety five percent of tickets, ninety
• 51:27
  Speaker 6: three percent of the cash on Philly. They're an extremely
• 51:29
  Speaker 6: public side and they're laying like minus one eighty something here,
• 51:33
  Speaker 6: which is crazy. Uh So the money seems to be
• 51:36
  Speaker 6: indicating there's some value on the Mets, and I like again,
• 51:39
  Speaker 6: I like that as far as the case for the under,
• 51:41
  Speaker 6: because when the lesser pitcher seems to be getting the money,
• 51:45
  Speaker 6: that basically is indicating that the professional money basically thinks
• 51:49
  Speaker 6: that pitcher can.
• 51:49
  Speaker 5: Kind of hang in the game. I don't think it's
• 51:53
  Speaker 5: really a fade of the other picture.
• 51:54
  Speaker 6: I think it's a value play and somewhat of a
• 51:57
  Speaker 6: play on that other on that lesser picture to hang
• 52:00
  Speaker 6: in there. So I think that's what we're seeing there,
• 52:03
  Speaker 6: So under the play there. SOB you're on Ivory Coast,
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: I'm not sure about that. Yeah, I did not agree. Dude,
• 52:15
  Speaker 6: Paraguay is awful. I don't know what to tell you
• 52:17
  Speaker 6: about Turkey. I don't know why they've been so bad
• 52:20
  Speaker 6: in this tournament. I have no idea. I mean, I
• 52:25
  Speaker 6: would not bet Germany in that game. I'll say Germany
• 52:28
  Speaker 6: and whatever, Germany is the better team. But Germany just
• 52:32
  Speaker 6: played Curasau like that game is basically a throwaway game. Curasau,
• 52:37
  Speaker 6: I think is the worst team in the entire World Cup.
• 52:40
  Speaker 6: Like they're an island of like one hundred thousand people.
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: It's a joke. I don't even know how they're in
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: the World Cup and they're not even.
• 52:46
  Speaker 6: The lowest ranked team in the World Cup of the
• 52:49
  Speaker 6: odds basically telling you that's the worst team in the
• 52:51
  Speaker 6: World Cup.
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: Germany.
• 52:53
  Speaker 6: You do not want to play Germany after a seven
• 52:55
  Speaker 6: to one win. I will tell you that there's no
• 52:58
  Speaker 6: way that I would play Germany in that game. I
• 53:00
  Speaker 6: don't know if I would play the Ivory Coast, but
• 53:03
  Speaker 6: I'm not gonna play Germany.
• 53:04
  Speaker 5: I'll tell you that.
• 53:07
  Speaker 6: And I still don't think that Paraguay was a good
• 53:09
  Speaker 6: play yesterday. I'm sorry, I still don't think it was. Uh,
• 53:12
  Speaker 6: they absolutely blow ass and Turkey was coming off an
• 53:16
  Speaker 6: embarrassing result and that was like they need they needed
• 53:19
  Speaker 6: that game yesterday. Well both teams did, I know as
• 53:23
  Speaker 6: far as elimination.
• 53:24
  Speaker 5: But Turkey.
• 53:25
  Speaker 6: Oddsmakers are telling you Turkey is the better team there.
• 53:29
  Speaker 6: Paraguay is not good at all. The US is gonna
• 53:33
  Speaker 6: win that group easily at this point. The fact that
• 53:37
  Speaker 6: the team it's number two in that group is fucking Australia.
• 53:41
  Speaker 6: Right now, I'm pretty sure, like really Australia blows.
• 53:47
  Speaker 7: Uh.
• 53:47
  Speaker 6: The new World Cup is is BS, It's an it's
• 53:51
  Speaker 6: an expanded World Cup. Well the worst part about it
• 53:54
  Speaker 6: is is the way that Morocco got in. Yeah, take
• 53:59
  Speaker 6: a look at what how Morocco won the African cupp
• 54:03
  Speaker 6: or whatever the hell it is to get into this thing.
• 54:06
  Speaker 6: Watch what happened. They didn't even win that match and
• 54:09
  Speaker 6: they still won. They lost to Senegal. So what I'm
• 54:13
  Speaker 6: hoping for is that they have to face Senegal at
• 54:16
  Speaker 6: some point in this World Cup because I will I
• 54:19
  Speaker 6: will tell you to play Senegal in that one. It
• 54:21
  Speaker 6: would be a massive revenge play.
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: Macado. You must be joking on Iran, right.
• 54:28
  Speaker 6: Iran is in a very difficult they're not a good team,
• 54:30
  Speaker 6: but they're also in a very difficult spot because they're
• 54:33
  Speaker 6: banned from being in the US. They're only allowed to
• 54:36
  Speaker 6: be in the US on match days, specifically to play
• 54:39
  Speaker 6: their matches and their fans. I don't think their fans
• 54:42
  Speaker 6: are allowed into the country. So it's all some bs.
• 54:46
  Speaker 6: It's all, you know, Israel war bs. I don't want
• 54:51
  Speaker 6: to get this channel nuked or whatever, but I'm not
• 54:53
  Speaker 6: monetized yet, so hopefully I can fly under the radar there.
• 54:56
  Speaker 6: But it's all military bs. But on is having to dude.
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: Iran has to stay in Mexico and then continuously travel
• 55:05
  Speaker 6: to the US whenever they have a match day, and
• 55:07
  Speaker 6: they're gonna be doing it with like no fans in
• 55:09
  Speaker 6: the crowd, and obviously the US crowd is gonna be
• 55:12
  Speaker 6: rooting against them, even though I thought the whole point
• 55:15
  Speaker 6: of the war was to save the Iranian people. So
• 55:18
  Speaker 6: shouldn't that mean you should be supporting their soccer team.
• 55:22
  Speaker 6: I don't know, but I would not want to play
• 55:24
  Speaker 6: on Iran at all during this tournament unless there's like
• 55:27
  Speaker 6: a really really good situation to do so, which I doubt.
• 55:31
  Speaker 6: All Right, this show is taking way too long and
• 55:34
  Speaker 6: I have to get out of here at some point.
• 55:36
  Speaker 6: How many games we have left I'm gonna do. Yeah,
• 55:39
  Speaker 6: we're basically on track here. I mean basically all these
• 55:44
  Speaker 6: countries that have totally different diets and then they come
• 55:48
  Speaker 6: to the US and eat all this like slop and whatever,
• 55:51
  Speaker 6: they're going to have diarrhea. Probably all right, we have
• 55:56
  Speaker 6: Cleveland and Houston, which is the other game on Fox.
• 55:58
  Speaker 6: Which of these games do you think people are gonna watch?
• 56:00
  Speaker 6: Mets Philadelphia or Cleveland Houston. I know the Mets have
• 56:03
  Speaker 6: been asked this year, but obviously the Mets in Philadelphia
• 56:06
  Speaker 6: are the big draw there. Those are huge markets. Cleveland
• 56:09
  Speaker 6: and Houston, nobody's gonna watch this. I mean, Cleveland's offense
• 56:13
  Speaker 6: is miserable right now. They have way too many injuries.
• 56:17
  Speaker 6: Houston won the game nine to three yesterday. That was
• 56:19
  Speaker 6: a pretty unpredictable game for me as far as the
• 56:22
  Speaker 6: way that I was looking at it. Houston only used
• 56:24
  Speaker 6: one guy out of the bullpen, so their bullpen is
• 56:27
  Speaker 6: pretty rested here. Cleveland used four guys out of the bullpen.
• 56:31
  Speaker 6: Cleveland does generally have the better bullpen. They're number fourteen.
• 56:34
  Speaker 6: Houston is up to number twenty one, and they have
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: been performing better recently, so I think there's not a
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: huge gap between these two bullpens here. I think Cleveland
• 56:44
  Speaker 6: does still have the advantage there, but not by much.
• 56:47
  Speaker 6: Houston has the better offense. Their ranked tenth, Cleveland is
• 56:50
  Speaker 6: twenty eighth, and it's an even worse scenario with those
• 56:55
  Speaker 6: with those injuries they have, and it's even worse because
• 56:58
  Speaker 6: they have Joey Cantillo bitching, who is not the guy
• 57:01
  Speaker 6: you want on them out and by be didn't dwell yesterday.
• 57:04
  Speaker 6: Cantio four point three eighty RA, but a one point
• 57:07
  Speaker 6: four to nine whip is pretty ugly. He's also not
• 57:10
  Speaker 6: good on the road four point nine to three Roadie
• 57:13
  Speaker 6: Ray pitch well on his last start, but it was
• 57:15
  Speaker 6: against Detroit at home. Good match up for him, probably
• 57:19
  Speaker 6: against a weak offense. Not a good sign that he
• 57:22
  Speaker 6: got blasted in Texas in.
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: The previous game.
• 57:26
  Speaker 6: If you pitch bad in Texas, there's something wrong with you.
• 57:29
  Speaker 6: I'll just put it that way. Cantillo overall, his hit
• 57:33
  Speaker 6: rate is are right, walk rate is too high, strike
• 57:35
  Speaker 6: out rate is okay, but the walks are the real
• 57:39
  Speaker 6: issue with him. He also doesn't have good numbers against Houston,
• 57:42
  Speaker 6: but it's a small eighteen at bat sample size. They
• 57:45
  Speaker 6: have a three eighty nine average against him though in
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: ten ten ops eight three strike out walk ratio. I
• 57:51
  Speaker 6: would not try to back Cantillo here. He's going up
• 57:54
  Speaker 6: against Spencer Arraghetti, who has been good, but he is
• 57:57
  Speaker 6: starting to regress a bit, and I told you his
• 57:59
  Speaker 6: numbers were just unsustainably good. I think he's a decent pitcher,
• 58:03
  Speaker 6: but he's not as good as his numbers looked. Two
• 58:06
  Speaker 6: point five to seven ERA is still I think misleading.
• 58:10
  Speaker 6: His one point two two whip is still al right,
• 58:12
  Speaker 6: but he's probably the guy that should have like a
• 58:14
  Speaker 6: three something ERA, which is still good. He's got a
• 58:17
  Speaker 6: two point two to two home ERA, so that's good.
• 58:20
  Speaker 6: His command numbers have still been pretty on point here
• 58:23
  Speaker 6: seventeen to six strike up walk ratio.
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: This month.
• 58:25
  Speaker 6: He's allowed some more runs this month and he's been
• 58:28
  Speaker 6: a little bit too hittable, but he's still not pitching
• 58:30
  Speaker 6: too badly, even though the runs have kind of regressed
• 58:34
  Speaker 6: a bit. He's allowed very few hits on the season.
• 58:36
  Speaker 6: Walk rate is too high, though the walks are the
• 58:38
  Speaker 6: main concern with him and his strike out rate.
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: Is alright, but with him yet, it's the control issues
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: with him.
• 58:46
  Speaker 6: I think he draws a decent matchup here, though, get
• 58:48
  Speaker 6: some really weak offense that has too many injuries right now.
• 58:51
  Speaker 6: Those injuries are factored into these numbers here. The guys
• 58:54
  Speaker 6: that are available for Cleveland have nineteen at bats against
• 58:57
  Speaker 6: him two to eleven, average, six sixty three oh P,
• 59:00
  Speaker 6: six to six strike up walk ratio. The only thing
• 59:03
  Speaker 6: bad about those numbers. Of those strike up walk ratio
• 59:05
  Speaker 6: numbers there, only Brian Rocchio has an extra base hit
• 59:10
  Speaker 6: against him, a double, so the Italian on Italian crime there.
• 59:17
  Speaker 6: I think rag Getty does set up to do okay here,
• 59:19
  Speaker 6: though I would lean Houston maybe in the first five
• 59:22
  Speaker 6: still though, because I still don't trust their bullpen. Really,
• 59:25
  Speaker 6: Houston first five makes the most sense to me here.
• 59:28
  Speaker 6: I don't know what the price is gonna be on it.
• 59:30
  Speaker 6: Though Houston's minus won forty on the full game, it's
• 59:33
  Speaker 6: probably gonna be a higher price than that on the
• 59:35
  Speaker 6: first five, So Houston minus a half run in the
• 59:38
  Speaker 6: first five might be the way to look at this.
• 59:40
  Speaker 6: You'll need them to be winning after five, but I
• 59:42
  Speaker 6: think they're certainly capable of doing that. Eighty one percent
• 59:46
  Speaker 6: of the tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on Houston,
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: so the money seems like it agrees. Money is also
• 59:51
  Speaker 6: on the over here at eight and a half. I
• 59:54
  Speaker 6: don't have a great feel for that. I mean, I
• 59:57
  Speaker 6: suppose you could also look Houston over their tea total.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: Maybe here.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 6: If you know Houston and the overall both getting the money,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 6: you expect Houston to put up some runs here.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 5: That makes some sense in that game. But I think
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: Houston first five makes the most sense.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 6: I'll be right back. I'll talk about the rest of
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 6: these games. Talk about w NBA, where I have won
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 6: somewhat strong opinion, but it has not made my card.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 6: And I am going to give out a World Cup
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 6: play that is not the same as SOBS play. Oh right,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 6: diarrhea because they're in Yeah, because they're in Mexico.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right. I don't know how that went over
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: my head, but yeah, I.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 6: Was just thinking the stomach issues from eating in America.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 6: But yeah, you're right. What did I just say, they're
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 6: staying in Mexico. Honestly, the food is probably healthier in Mexico.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 6: They probably have less of the slot that we have
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 6: in America.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 7: All right, I'll be right backstatts assassssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssh.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 6: Oh, this thing keeps refreshing, so it goes haywire. Anyway,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh got Colorado Colorado I think one yesterday. Yeah, they
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 6: won four to three yesterday. Uh, lower scoring game than
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 6: I would have expected. In that one, Colorado used two
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 6: guys out of the bullpen. Their bullpen is ass though
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh used two as well. We have rested bullpens, but
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 6: I don't trust these bullpens. Pittsburgh number twenty two, Colorado
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 6: number twenty seven. Colorado is second worst in ERA only
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 6: behind Minnesota. Both offenses have been fairly capable. Pittsburgh fourth,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 6: Colorado eleventh of low. I don't think Colorado is as
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 6: good as that, but they're at home where they hit
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 6: a little bit better. However, they're gonna have to try
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 6: to put up offense against.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 5: Paul Skans in this one.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 6: Schemes two point eight five ERA point nine to three whip.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 6: He's been a little bit worse on the road three
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 6: point two to six. Roady Ray, I'm not too concerned.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 6: With him pitching in this stadium or anything. Though, he's
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 6: been pretty good this month, twenty four to four strikeout
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 6: walk ratio in sixteen to two thirds innings. He's allowed
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 6: two or fewer on runs and all three outings. He
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 6: had one short outing where he was really inefficient against Houston.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: I don't know what that was. That was his last
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 5: road start. Actually, he was struggling a little bit for
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 5: a span of like four starts.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 6: Excuse me, but I don't know, man. I mean, he's
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 6: back in form right now. His last two starts were good.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 6: One of them was against the Dodgers. I think he's back.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: He Skins. We know all this.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 6: He's got a low hit rate, pretty low, he's got
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 6: a low walk rate, too high strikeout rate.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: Whatever. We know he's good. He is slightly more of
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 5: a fly ball pitcher.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 6: But you know, I mean, I still don't think Skeens
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 6: is gonna pitch poorly here. He also dominates Colorado typically
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 6: in forty six at bats, seventeen strikeouts, one walk, one
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 6: thirty average, three sixty six ops. So yeah, I would
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 6: think that Skeens should pitch pretty well here. Tomoyuki Sugano
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 6: is pitching for the Colorados side.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: He's not great four point five four ERA one point
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 5: three to four whip.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 6: He's slightly worse at home, but not really that much
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 6: worse four point six y five home he ra Even
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 6: though he's kind of a he is a fly ball pitcher.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 6: He's yeah, more than kind of. He's definitely a fly
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 6: ball pitcher. The home runs haven't been a huge issue
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 6: for him this year though. Though he's allowed double digit
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 6: home runs, he's not the worst home run allowing pitcher here.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 6: And he's actually pitched okay recently. Though his last started
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 6: to give up six or in runs. But it was
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 6: at the A's Stadium in that ridiculous twenty three to
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 6: nine game. He won the game because he got so
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 6: much run support behind him. But that was a weird
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 6: outlier of a game, you know, in that A's stadium.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 5: It is what it is.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 6: Sugano has actually been better than you would expect this year.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 6: He's nothing spectacular, he doesn't strike anybody out. He's got
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 6: kind of a high hit rate, his walk rate is fine.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 6: Whatever the numbers against Pittsburgh, they only have two guys
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 6: who have faced him three point thirty three average eleven
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 6: sixty seven ohps, it's just a two for six clip.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 6: All of the hits have come from Brandon Lowe, who
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 6: does have a home run off him and the only
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 6: strikeout against him, and there are no walks in there.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 6: But Sugano is mostly unfamiliar to Pittsburgh here. I mean,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 6: do we really think about like potentially an under in
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 6: this game, maybe a first five under. I mean, the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 6: total is a Colorado total, it's ten and a half.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 6: Money is hitting the over a little bit, fifty eight
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 6: percent of tickets on the under, fifty seven percent of
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 6: the cash on the over.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: I think this could be a first five under here.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 6: Maybe you know you're getting the Colorado total here. It
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 6: always skews that total as far as the side. You're
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 6: paying too much of a price for Pittsburgh. I mean,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 6: that's just the way that it is. They make you
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 6: pay for schemes. Eighty eight percent of tickets, seventy five
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 6: percent of the cash on Pittsburgh. They're minus two ten
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 6: basically here.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't you. I don't think you could lay a
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh money line here.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 6: Even if they should win this game, should bounce back
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 6: from yesterday, Pittsburgh is the better team, obviously, they got
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 6: the matchup edge here. But I don't know, man, there
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 6: might be other ways of playing this, maybe a Colorado
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 6: under team total in the first five or something, if
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 6: you have a book that allows that, or that has
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 6: that as an option, something like that. Maybe, I don't know.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 6: I don't want to do anything with that game though.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 6: Mexico's water. Yeah, they probably are all poppy sloppy. Yeah,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 6: they probably have a lot of they have illnesses from that. Darryl,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 6: what's up man? You like the Rockies over all right?
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 6: I just kind of made a case against that, although
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 6: if you go over, you mean the full game over
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 6: Rockies Pirates. If you go over in that game, you
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 6: gotta go full game with that take advantage of the
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 6: bullpens because the bullpen's blow. So that would be the
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 6: only way that I would think about playing the over
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 6: there and Astro's first five. Yes, I did talk about that, correct,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 6: So you agree with that?
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 5: I like that margin for era.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 6: Yeah, that's how we pronounced it in Boston, margin for
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 6: error with with my money? What do you I don't
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 6: know what you mean exactly. Oh, you mean like if
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 6: you're playing, if you're trying to play Pittsburgh there. I
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 6: don't know, uh Anaheim at the A's we got the
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 6: over right in this game last night easily, with twenty
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 6: three runs scored in the game, twenty two of them
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 6: in the first nine innings. So we had that pinch
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 6: hit home run there to tie the game, I think
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 6: in the ninth, and then we had the walk off
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 6: walk I believe is what it was you guys were
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 6: telling me.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 6: I didn't see how the game ended. I was only
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 6: concerned about the total, so I stopped paying attention, even
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 6: though I guess it was a dramatic finish. The A's
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 6: bull excuse me, the athletics bullpen us guys out of
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 6: the bullpen. Neither of these bullpens are good. Anaheim used
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 6: a bunch, they used five. I would fade both bullpens
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: again here if I was gonna do anything related to
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 6: the bullpens. A's are number twenty three, Angels twenty six.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 6: Not good bullpens.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 6: A's are number three in offense. They're good offense. They're
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 6: at home where it's a very offensive ballpark.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 5: It offends me.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 6: In fact, number sixteen is where the Angels are offensively.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: This pitching matchup, though, the starting pitching.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 6: You know, it might not be that bad. Walbert Urray,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 6: you know, pitching for the Angels. I actually think he's
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 6: not that bad, but he's gotta get his walk number down.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 6: He's got a two point six ERA, which is misleading.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 6: He's not that good because he does have a one
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 6: point three to five whip which is too high. But
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 6: he's not a bad pitcher, and people still don't know
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 6: who he is because he's young.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 5: And again, I think if.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 6: He gets his walks under control, he's gonna be a
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 6: pretty good pitcher. He's only twenty two right now. He's
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 6: got a three point eight six Roady Ray, though he's
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 6: not as good on the road. Pitching in this A's
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 6: stadium could be an issue, but I don't know, man.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 5: I mean, his issue just continues to be the walks.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 6: He's difficult to hit, but he's issuing way too many
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 6: walks all over the place. He's got a really low
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 6: hit rate, his walk rate is way too high, and
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 6: his strikeout rate is decent. But one thing of note
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 6: when he's pitching in this A's stadium here is that
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 6: he does have more ground ball outs than fly ball outs,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 6: so he doesn't allow many fly balls, hasn't allowed many
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 6: home runs, so that might help him out in this stadium,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 6: you know what I mean. Like his style of pitching
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 6: is more suitable to a stadium like this because he
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 6: doesn't allow that many fly balls, so that does help him.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 6: His numbers are good against the A's generally, and eighteen
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 6: at bats very small sample though too. Twenty two average
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 6: allowed five to seventy eight ohps, three to two strike
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 6: out walk ratio. The only extra base hit is from
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 6: Nick Kertz, our favorite guy there. I think Urania might
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 6: actually pitch well here. He is going to be opposed
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 6: by JT. Gin for the a who was having a
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 6: good season. Two point nine to one array one point
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 6: one six whip. Gin is not as good in this stadium.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 6: I mean, that's obviously expected. Three point nine to three
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 6: homie array. That's still not even bad though, and Gin
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 6: is another guy who does not allow many fly balls.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 6: He's pretty even between ground balls and fly balls. Hasn't
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 6: allowed a lot of home runs, so Gin is more
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 6: well suited for this ballpark, which is good for the A's.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 6: He's been pretty good over the last mostly most of
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 6: the last month or so. He's in good He's had
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 6: two bad starts in there. One was at home here
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 6: against Milwaukee. The other was at home against Cleveland, which
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 6: is more damning. But he pitched well here last time out.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 6: He gave up nowhere in runs at six innings against Pittsburgh.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 5: In this stadium last time out.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 6: That's a good sign that he's doing that against a
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 6: pretty good offense. Pitch well on the road against the
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 6: Cubs in one of his other starts, pitch well in
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 6: this stadium against the Yankees not too long ago. That's
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 6: a good sign as well another offense there. He's allowed
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 6: very few hits.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 5: On the season.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 6: His walk rate is too high though his strikeout rate
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 6: is a bit low, but he's not really strike up pitcher.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 6: But again, overall the way the style of pitching that
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 6: we get here in the starting pitching matchup. Also, we
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 6: do have to look at Ginn's matchup numbers. Hold on,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 6: I did look at them earlier. Yeah, his matchup numbers
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 6: against Anaheim are good and thirty one at bats, nine strikeouts,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 6: no walks, one ninety four average six thirteen ops. Allowed
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 6: a couple of home runs in there from Nido and
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 6: Sean Well Shanual, How the hell do you pronounce that
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 6: guy's name? I don't even know who that is, whatever,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 6: but I think this game does kind of look like
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 6: a first five under to me here. I don't want
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 6: to risk it, but that's kind of the way that
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 6: I feel about this game.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 5: It's it's my intuition. Man.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 6: The money is backing the over in the full game.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 6: The game's nine and a half total. I mean, you know,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 6: it's it's an A's home game, so you know the
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 6: total is gonna be high if you're gonna go over.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 6: Obviously you got to go full game and take advantage
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 6: of these crap bullpens here fifty percent of the tickets
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 6: eighty percent of the cash on the over. But I
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 6: think a first five under makes sense in this game.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 6: And also the money is backing Anaheim here, so I
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 6: would whatever you do in this game, I would want
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 6: to either fade or avoid the bullpens though, because they
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 6: suck eighty one percent of the tickets fifty eight percent
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 6: of the cash on the A's who are around minus
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 6: one seventy on the price, which is yeah. I mean,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 6: I think what the professional money here seems to be
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 6: saying is like, yeah, the A's should not be this
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 6: heavy of a favor going up against a capable pitcher
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 6: like Urania, who's just totally under the radar here. So
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 6: I don't really disagree with that, but I think a
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 6: first five under is what makes the most sense there.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 6: Kurtz was the guy that drew the walk to win
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 6: the game. I mean grand slam. It's any single at bad,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 6: it's highly unlikely it's gonna result in a home run.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 6: Like I used to make like side bets, like going
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 6: to the ball but going to Fenway with friends and whatever, like,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 6: people know that I bet and they'd always like just
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 6: it would be some random at bat and they just
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 6: be like, hey, I bet you're like ten bucks, this
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 6: guy's gonna hit a home run. I'd be like, okay,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 6: I'll take your bet, and then they never hit a
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 6: home run. So I just clean up, like you're giving
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 6: me even odds on that when it's like a what
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 6: is it? It's probably like a seven percent chance this
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 6: at bad is gonna result in a home run.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: People don't get it, man. People.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 6: That's why home run props are not something that you
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 6: should do ever, because you never get good enough odds
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 6: on it.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 5: Everybody loves rooting for a guy.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 6: To hit a home run, but it doesn't happen anywhere
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 6: near enough to justify the price. Nancy, what's up? Thanks
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 6: for hanging out. Yeah, yes, my June teenth was excellent. Yes,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 6: I had fried chicken, you know, watermelon stuff like that. No,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 6: actually I did have chicken, but it was grilled.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: Yesterday.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 6: You saw basically all the food I ate yesterday was
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 6: in my reviews that I put on on Twitter. Yesterday,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 6: I tried the new Taco Bell Street schaloopas. They're actually
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 6: not bad. I expected them to not be that bad, though,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 6: I kind of I have a good gauge on Taco Bell.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 5: They have so many new items they roll.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 6: Out, but basically, if it doesn't involve fried chicken, it's
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 6: probably gonna be good, And if it does involve fried chicken,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 6: it won't be that good. That's pretty much the general
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 6: rule with Taco Bell. But those new Street schaloopahs are
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 6: all right. They're not the best, but they're all right.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 6: And then I had the McDonald's deep fried apple pie
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 6: that made a comeback. Presumably it was bet or back
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 6: in the sixties or whatever when they were using beef
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 6: tallow but it was still pretty enjoyable. I will tell
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 6: you that I really liked it all right, even though
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 6: I destroyed my mouth when I first been into it.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 5: But that's just part of the experience. Red Sox at Seattle.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 6: The Red Sox won the game yesterday despite having to
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 6: travel cross country for it. I don't know how they
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 6: did it, but they won. Royer Suarez had a no
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 6: hitter like the seventh inning in the game, so he
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 6: pitched really well. Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 6: did not use Chapman because it was no longer a
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 6: save situation. Seattle, though, saved their entire bullpen because what
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 6: they did yesterday is they brought in Luis Castillo just
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 6: to eat up innings towards the end of the game
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 6: there because the Red Sox I think we're winning five
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 6: to nothing or whatever it was at that point. So
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 6: Seattle saved their whole bullpen yesterday. Red Sox have a
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 6: good bullpen. They're number three. Seattle is also good, although
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 6: the rank fifteenth, but the era is better than that,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 6: so we have two pretty good bullpens here, although the
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 6: Red Sox slightly better but less rested here. Red Sox
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 6: have a terrible offense twenty fifth. They just have not
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 6: gotten it going, although they put up enough yesterday to win.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 6: By the way, the Red Sox, when they fall behind,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 6: they're like historically bad. The Red Sox are own thirty
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 6: nine or they might be owned forty now. When they
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 6: fall behind by three runs in a game this year,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 6: that's like unheard of. And I think they're one thirty
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 6: three or something when they fall behind by two or
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 6: more runs. So they've only overcome a two run deficit
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 6: once this entire season.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 5: It's ridiculous.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 6: So like, if the Red Sox are gonna win the game,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 6: they need to be winning basically the whole game for
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 6: them to win it, which is ridiculous.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: Nobody really celebrates. I don't know.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 6: I heard some celebration going on around one am last night.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 6: I tweeted about it. I'm pretty sure it was gunshots
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 6: somewhere out there. Mister Pinsey, what's up, dirty sock?
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 5: What's up?
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 6: Thanks for hanging out. I gotta get through the rest
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 6: of this, man, because I gotta get out of here.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 6: At some point in the near future. We have Red
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 6: Sox Seattle, is what I'm talking about. All right, Yeah,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 6: I'm almost well. I have to talk about the sturdy
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 6: pitchers here. Connolly Early is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 6: His whip has gotten a bit too high here. He's
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 6: got a three point eight one ERA. He's a decent
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 6: young pitcher, but he's starting to kind of pitch Worris here.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 5: His whip one point three to two.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 6: That's not good. He's got to do something about that.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 6: He is good on the road though, two point eight
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 6: two Roady a Ray. His last start, which was easily
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 6: the worst start of his career, was at home, but
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 6: it is pretty damning because it was against Texas, so
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 6: that is not a good sign. Texas not a good offense,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 6: although they are better on the road, but that was
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 6: a horrible start from early. He's failed to make it
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 6: five innings his last two starts. He's gotten blown up
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 6: this month, so he's not in good form right now
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 6: after he was quite good for the entire season up
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 6: to this point. I think at some point he is
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 6: gonna kind of come back into form here, but I
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 6: would not want to trust him right now.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 5: Overall, numbers still look pretty good here though pretty low.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: Hit ray walk rate.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 6: Is okay ish, and strike got raided is fine not
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 6: really a strike up pitcher. He might have a little
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 6: bit of an edge here in that Seattle's never faced
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 6: him before. Although that edge I think he's had a
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 6: couple of times that hasn't really helped him, But maybe
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 6: it'll help him here. He's in a more picture from
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 6: the environment he gets to on the road. He might
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 6: do okay here. I mean, I don't know, man, I
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 6: mean I kind of lean more towards him doing well
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 6: than not, But I don't know if I quite want
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 6: to pank on that.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 5: Emerson Hancock is picture for Seattle.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 6: He's been the better of the two pitchers this year
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 6: three point two eighty RA, one point h two whip.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 6: He's been good at home two point seven home YRA.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 6: So both pitchers are in the better of their home
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 6: road splits. Hancock wasn't good in his last start on
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 6: the road at Washington. I mean, do you give him
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 6: a pass for that? Maybe because Washington is a good offense.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 6: Though again, they're better on the road than at home,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 6: but they're not exactly bad at home. Hancock still has
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 6: had good command numbers here. He's only walked two guys
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 6: in fifteen innings this month, twelve strikeouts, two walks overall,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 6: numbers good on the season, low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 6: decent strikeout rate, so he's the somewhat better of these
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 6: two pitchers. Red Sox have seen him a little bit.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 6: They have four hitters who have faced him nine at bats,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 6: and they actually have hit him a little bit three
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 6: thirty three average seven to seventy eight ohpm. Really not
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 6: a ton to take away from that, though Duran does
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 6: have one the one extra base hit against him a double,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 6: also has the one strikeout against them, and they have
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 6: no walks against them.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 5: This game kind.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 6: Of just reads as an under again to me, though,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 6: you know, I mean yesterday I said that the total
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 6: was too low given that matchup, and the game did
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 6: I think go over the total because the total was
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 6: way too It was six and a half, so it
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 6: was like there's no room for error there, and I
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 6: think the Red Sox won six to two, so it
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 6: did go over, even though the game yesterday really kind
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 6: of played like an under. Though this game, seven and
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 6: a half is the total. It's heavily juice seven out there.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 6: At some of the books, money is backing the under
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 6: seventy two percent of tickets on the over fifty six
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 6: percent of the cash on the under. I some would
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 6: agree with it, but I have some issues with both
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 6: pitchers here. I mean they both had bad outings in
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 6: their last outing, so there, you know, especially Early is
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 6: just not in good form right now, so that does
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 6: concerned me. Hancock's matchup numbers worrying me a little bit,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 6: although it's a very small sample. Seattle's around minus won
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 6: twenty something here, and the money is backing the Red
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 6: Sox sixty two percent of tickets, fifty five percent of
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 6: the cash on Seattle, so they're a public side with
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 6: the money back in the Red Sox. Seems like the
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 6: money is backing the Red Sox a lot this season, Like, yeah,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 6: we get at the Red Sox based on the talent
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 6: level they have, they're not.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 5: As bad as the record looks.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 6: Yeah, that's true, but I'm not convinced that the Red
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 6: Sox are gonna win this game. But it under, you know,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 6: maybe is worth considering. There definitely not gonna be anything
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 6: on my card though. Baltimore at the Dodgers this game,
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 6: I said, Dodgers over team told he yesterday they landed
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 6: right on six, So I don't know if they made
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 6: it or not. They're probably dependent on the number you
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 6: could get. I mean, obviously, it always depends on the
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 6: number you get.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: Uh.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 6: Dodgers won that game yesterday six to five. Dodgers do
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 6: have a bit more of an advantage in this game
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 6: than they did yesterday, though, because they have a better
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 6: pitcher on the mound than Sasaki. Dodgers used four relief
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 6: pitchers yesterday. Baltimore also used four. Dodgers are the better
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 6: bullpen the ranked fifth O the ERA little bit questionable.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 6: They had a little bit of a blip over the
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 6: last couple of weeks, but kind of returning to form
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 6: a little bit here.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 5: Orioles seventeenth.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 6: Their bullpen is bad though, they're like a bottom ten bullpen.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 5: They're not good.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 6: Dodgers are number one in offense still Orioles number fifteen,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 6: so both offenses have been at least decent. Dodgers obviously
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 6: are pretty elite in that department. Even with injuries, they
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 6: still hit well. Trevor Rodgers is pitching for Baltimore. He
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 6: is not doing well five point eight six ERA one
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 6: point four or five whip. He's been particularly bad on
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 6: the road six point six y four road ERA not
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 6: good here. He's been better this month a little bit.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 6: He's allowed three or fewer three or fewer runs in
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 6: all of his starts here, but they were against the
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 6: Red Sox Seattle in San Diego. Seattle's the best offense
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 6: out of those three, and that was his weakest the
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 6: three starts. Dodgers are a different animal man, especially Boston
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 6: San Diego. Those are really bad offenses. He's gonna have
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 6: to step it up to face the Dodgers here. He
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 6: is not facing an offense like this since facing the
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 6: Yankees earlier in May, and he was not good in
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 6: that start. So do I think Rodgers is gonna pitch
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 6: well here Rogers versus the Dodgers, No, I do not.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 6: The Dodgers have thirty nine at bats against them three
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 6: zero eight average, eight to nineteen ops, eleven to three
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio is fine, but the rest of these
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 6: numbers not great. So yes, I expect the Dodgers to
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 6: get some runs here. Dodgers are going with Yoshinoba Yamamoto.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 6: He's obviously the better pitcher here two point five two
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 6: ERA point eight four whip. He is a little bit
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 6: worse at home two point eight four ERA, although that's
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 6: obviously not bad.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: Uh, Yamamoto.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 6: Possibly he's in a little bit of a let down
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 6: here because he took a no hitter into the ninth
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 6: inning last time. Actually it was a I think it
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 6: was a perfect game actually into the ninth inning because
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 6: he didn't walk anybody against the White Sox, so he
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 6: had a perfect game into the ninth inning and allowed
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 6: a home run and lost the perfect game, I think
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 6: with one. He got one out in the ninth inning
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 6: and then a lot of home run and then they
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 6: took him out brutal. So sometimes you know, when a
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 6: pitcher does that and they're on the verge of history
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 6: like that, sometimes they will be in a letdown spot
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 6: after that. So I don't love backing Yamamoto after that.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 5: It was also the.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 6: Most pitches he's thrown and then he start this year,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 6: though it wasn't that much more than he's thrown in
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 6: some of these other starts, and he still pitched really well.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 6: Over the course of the whole season. He's alloted more
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 6: than three ear and runs only once, got a really
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 6: low hit rate. His strikeout rate is decent, low walk
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 6: rate as well. We know he's good, so I don't
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 6: really want to bank on him pitching poorly, but I
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 6: do think he'll regress a little bit from what he
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 6: did in his last outing. Numbers against Baltimore are pretty dominant,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 6: though in thirty at bats ten strikeouts five walks isn't
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 6: that great though one thirty three average four to ninety ops.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 6: They only have one extra base hit, which is a
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 6: home run from Jackson Holliday, the son of Matt Holliday,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 6: former Colorado Rocky.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, I would still think Yamamoto will still.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 6: Pitch pretty well here though, But if you want the Dodgers,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 6: you're obviously you're paying for it Dodgers plus. I believe
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 6: the World Series MVP from last year, Yamamoto to minus
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 6: two seventy minus two sixty something is the price here.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 6: You can't do that ninety five percent of tickets eighty
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 6: nine percent of the cash on the Dodgers.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 5: The money is actually fading the Dodgers here.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 6: I would not want to back Baltimore either here though,
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 6: the money is also backing the over the totals at
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 6: eight I think again broken record, but I think the
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 6: way to look at this game might just be to
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 6: go Dodgers over their team total. Then you know whether
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 6: or not Yamamoto is gonna let down spot. You get
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 6: to put that out of the equation. Just go with
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 6: the Dodgers to score runs here. That might be the
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 6: approach you probably, I mean, you'll probably need to get
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 6: six runs again here though, but they're capable of doing it.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 6: They did it yesterday barely. But yeah, that's probably what
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 6: I would look the way that I would look at
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 6: that Minnesota at Arizona. I'm thinking maybe I should have
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 6: just put Arizona on the card yesterday, because they did
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 6: win fairly easily yesterday. I think nine to five was
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 6: the final. I haven't really looked at the box score,
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 6: but Arizona seemed to have pretty much an advantage everywhere
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 6: in that game yesterday. Arizona, however, in this game, coming
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 6: into this game, they use seven relief pitchers yesterday, So
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 6: I don't know what happened to Soraka yesterday. Did he
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 6: not pitch, did he get injured? I don't know what
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 6: that was. Arizona used way too many relief pitchers though.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 6: It wasn't an extra inning game either, so honestly, I
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 6: have no idea what happened in that game. Let me look, Actually,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 6: I'm I'm interested to know, I think Soroka got injured. Dude,
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 6: he only threw nine pitches, so that's a problem if
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 6: you're a d BAS fan. Garrett probably not happy about
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 6: that either. Yeah, I don't know, man, so well, I'll
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 6: have to look into it and see what the deal
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 6: is there. But in this game, you know, what we
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 6: have to worry about is that the d Backs bullpen
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 6: is very unrested.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 6: Typically they are the better of these two bullpens. Minnesotas
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 6: is very bad, debatably the worst, but Minnesota only these
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 6: two guys out of the bullpen yesterday, so Minnesota does
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 6: have a bullpen rested Evangeline, the Diamondbacks are rank sixth
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 6: in bullpen, but they're eray is a little bit worse
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 6: than that. Still, they're better than Minnesota, who is the
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 6: worst bullpen e Ray in baseball, and the ranks they're
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 6: ranked dead last, I mean the rank they're tied and
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 6: whip the Reds. So yeah, Minnesota is the worst bullpen
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 6: in baseball right now. Minnesota number thirteen in offense, Diamondbacks
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 6: are number twenty six, so they've really struggled offensively. Taj
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 6: Bradley's getting the star from Minnesota he's definitely regressed after
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 6: he was hot at the beginning of the season. I
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 6: don't want to talk about it because he's done damage
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 6: to my bank roll, at least damage, you know, to
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 6: what we've tried to do on the show. Four point
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 6: one four ERA one point three to four whip not good,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 6: not a good whip. His ray on the road four
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 6: point thirty nine not excellent there either, struggled this month
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 6: fifteen to nine strike out walk ratio.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 5: That's not good.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 6: Although he was better in his last outing against Saint Louis,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 6: even though he gave up four runs there, he was
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 6: able to go deeper into the game, had more strikeouts
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 6: and fewer walks. So maybe he is coming back into
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 6: form a little bit here. I don't know if we
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 6: can fully trust him right now. Though he's got a
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 6: high strikeout rate on the season, so that's good, a
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 6: low hit rate, but his problem is the walks.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 5: Like, this guy's got talent, he's still pretty young.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 6: He's got strikeout capability, but he's got to stop walking
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 6: guys man. That's like the main issue with him. And
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 6: then against Arizona, he doesn't have good numbers in twenty
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 6: six at bats, which I know is in a huge
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 6: sample three to three strikeout walk ratio three zero eight,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 6: batting average allout eleven to ten oh ps not good.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 6: I he'pe he going up against Zach Gallon, who is
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 6: not having a good season at all for Arizona. Five
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 6: point three to five yr, one point five to three
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 6: whip is really bad. He's good at home though, with
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 6: three point six y five homiel Ray. He is way
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 6: worse on the road for whatever reason. He's been still
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 6: not really that good this month. Though he had an
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 6: okay start last time out at Cincinnati, a couple of
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 6: starts prior to that wasn't very good. Eight to five
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 6: strike out walk ratio this month with twenty four hits
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 6: all out in sixteen at third innings. That's not good.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 6: He's been way too hit a boy in. His strike
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 6: got rate is way down, something very very wrong with him.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 6: That's been the case over the course of the whole season.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 6: His hit rate is way too high, his walk rate
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 6: is okay, and his strike gout rate is way too low.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 5: Strike got right, yeah, is way too low.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 6: So yeah, not a lot to like here with him,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 6: other than the fact that Minnesota hasn't done much damage
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 6: against him in the past. Minnesota only has five hitters
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 6: have faced him twenty nine at bats, one extra base
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 6: which is a buston home run. They have five strikeouts,
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 6: no walks, two oh seven average five to seventeen obs.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 6: So maybe he matches up okay here and he is
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 6: in the better of his splits here at the very least.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 5: I mean I would be.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 6: Hesitant to want to back Arizona here. I think if
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 6: you back Arizona, I think if you back either team here,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 6: you want to avoid the bullpens. I mean, I don't
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 6: see any way to want like, I don't see any
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 6: way to play either of these bullpens here. Arizona's around
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 6: minus one thirty on the full game, sixty six percent
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 6: of tickets seventy seven percent of the cash on them.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 5: I think you could play Arizona.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 6: You should go first five though, just avoid the bullpen
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 6: with either with whatever you do here, or you could
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 6: play the full game over the totals at nine seventy
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 6: one percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 6: on the over. I don't disagree with an over here.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 6: You know, both both bullpens are in bad, like the
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 6: one bullpen is bad and the other one sets up
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 6: poorly in this game, and both starters are kind of
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 6: you know, both starters are definitely questionable at the very least,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 6: So an over does make some sense there in that one.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 5: And that's it for baseball here, all right.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 6: Let me see here we got WNBA here three WNBA games.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 6: Afternoon game is a quick rematch between Indiana and Atlanta
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 6: on ABC. Indiana won the first matchup this season, and
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 6: Atlanta bounced back and won at Indiana last time out
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 6: by seven. Now, I liked Atlanta in that game because
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 6: the first matchup these teams had was a little bit misleading.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 6: I thought they would bounce back playing in the same
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 6: arena too.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 5: The setup was decent.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 6: Indiana was able to get the win there, or excusely,
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 6: Atlanta excusely was able to get the win there. Now
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 6: they're playing each other again in Atlanta, so it does
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 6: look like it could be one of those road reversal
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 6: spots where now Indiana is the team at Zigzags and
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 6: comes back and plays better in this one. So I
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 6: wouldn't really disagree with Indiana here, But you got to
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 6: dig into the box score here and see what happened
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 6: in this last game and you know, wasn't an outlier
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 6: or anything. Well, Atlanta won the rebound battle by four.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 6: Indiana did turn the ball over a lot, so they
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 6: might be able to clean that up a little bit.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 6: Indiana did shoot really well from three. They took more.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 6: Oh no, they took fewer threes, but they hit more.
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 6: They hit forty seven percent of their threes, so you
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 6: got to think that's gonna regress. Indiana is not gonna
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 6: shoot as well from three. Both teams shot well from
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 6: the field fifty four percent for Atlanta, fifty six percent
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 6: from Indiana. Usually Atlanta's a good deepense too, so both
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 6: offenses do have some room to regress here. Both teams
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 6: hit hit more of their field goals than you would expect.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 6: Indiana hit more threes than you would think based on
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 6: how many they took, and both teams went to the
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 6: line a lot. Atlanta went to the line thirty five times,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 6: Indiana twenty nine times.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 5: So there were a lot of free throw attempts in.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 6: This game, so that also skewed the game more towards
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 6: the over here. So given all that, I think more
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 6: regression points line up for this game to be an
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 6: under this time rather than the side although I do
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 6: think there is some argument for the zigzag for Indiana here,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 6: but I don't like that Indiana might regress, Like the
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 6: biggest regression point might be Indiana's three point percentage, so
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 6: I don't really want Indiana here. Now, Indiana was a
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 6: one and a half point underdog in that game. Uh,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 6: that was at home. So the oddsmakers are telling you
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 6: Atlanta is the better team. But Atlanta is laying five
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 6: and a half here. The money is back in Indiana
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 6: eighty two percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 6: on them. I'll agree with Indiana plus the points here.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 6: They may make the adjustments to fix some things, but
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 6: the total might be where you want to look.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 5: Like I said, I mean that game, the game.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 6: Landed whatever then is two oh nine and the total
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 6: was one seventy three and a half, which is a
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 6: high total in the WNBA. But the total now in
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 6: this game is up to one seventy seven and a half,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 6: So the total is four points higher than the pre game.
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 6: Even though Atlanta is the better defensive team and they're
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 6: at home and they might make this more of a
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 6: defensive game here, I think the bigger like, the bigger
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 6: regression point here is that both teams should shoot worse.
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 6: Here both teams probably go to the free throw line less.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 6: So I think an under makes sense, although I usually
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 6: don't want to go under these highest totals because it's
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 6: high for a reason. And Indiana's been playing a lot
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 6: of high scoring games this year, and if if you
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 6: think Indiana's going to be the team that might be
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 6: able to cover this number, they're probably going to need
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 6: to speed the game up. Although usually the better team
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 6: at home kind of can control the pace, and that
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 6: is Atlanta, so they probably want to slow it down.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 5: But I think an under makes the most sense in
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 5: this game. But the money doesn't agree.
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 6: Fifty tickets on the under sixty three percent of the
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 6: cash on the over. But I think out of all
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 6: the WNBA games today, I think the under in this
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 6: game makes the most sense though, because there's a lot
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 6: of regression.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: Potential after that last game.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 6: And by the way, the first game these two teams
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 6: played was eighty three to seventy one, which was also
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 6: that was at Indiana, though they haven't played at Atlanta
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 6: yet this year, but that was a much lower scoring game.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 6: That game went under. Obviously, that game landed one fifty four,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 6: So we've had one really low scoring game, one really
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 6: high scoring game. But yeah, undermakes sense to me in
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 6: this one. Although that game, I'm assuming the shooting was
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 6: just way off in that game. So I think what
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 6: you can expect in this game is somewhere in between
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 6: the two obviously. I mean that's what the odds makers
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 6: are telling you as well. Yes, I've talked about that
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 6: on the show. Indiana needs to fire their coach. I
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 6: don't know what Indiana is doing here. They need to
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 6: just unleash Clark. The league also is just beating up Clark,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 6: like the opposing players just intentionally injure her. Seattle at
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 6: Phoenix also on ABC, people are gonna look at this
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 6: and say, well, Phoenix, they're four and twelve and Seattle
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 6: is three and thirteen, only one game worse. How is
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 6: Phoenix laying seven and a half here?
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 5: Right?
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 6: Like, I think the public is gonna look at this
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 6: and think that line makes absolutely no sense. But the
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 6: oddsmakers are telling you Phoenix is way better than Seattle.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 6: Seattle is one of the worst teams in the league.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 6: Phoenix is better than the record would indicate because they
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 6: face a really difficult schedule this year. Phoenix is coming
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 6: off a difficult game against Vegas, but they're staying at home.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 6: They did lose that game by double digits. I think
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 6: Phoenix is probably the right side here. They did go
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 6: to Seattle and win only by four. But if you
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 6: dive into this box score a little bit, Phoenix was
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 6: favored by seven and a half in that game when
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 6: the game went off on the road, and Phoenix is
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 6: the same here. There's seven and a half here at
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 6: home now, so if they were seven and a half
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 6: on the road, they should be more than seven and
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 6: a half at home, you know.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 5: So it looks like there's some value here. The money
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 5: is all over.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 6: Phoenix here, seventy one percent of tickets on Seattle, seventy
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 6: seven percent of the cash on Phoenix. I would look
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 6: for Phoenix here. I would try to lay the seven
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 6: if you can find a seven out there. It looks
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 6: like the it's mostly the sharper books that have the
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 6: lower number of seven, though, But I think I don't
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 6: know if that's really a sharp lean really. I think
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 6: it's more that just the more public books tend to
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 6: just juice the favorite, though in most cases that's just
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 6: the way that it is if you look.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 5: At this game.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 6: Though Phoenix won the rebound battle by double digits in
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 6: the previous game, they only Phoenix only hit three three
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 6: pointers in the game, and I think we lost on
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 6: this game. I think we laid the points with Phoenix
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 6: in this one. It was a bullshit loss. They hit
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 6: fourteen percent of their threes and only hit three threes,
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 6: so you know, Phoenix, there is a huge regression point there.
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 6: But then on the other side, Seattle only took three
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 6: free throw or only hit three free throws.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 5: It only took five. So there was a huge free.
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 6: Throw advantage to Phoenix in that game. But some of
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 6: it was that Phoenix was dominating on the interior. But also, yeah,
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 6: that is a regression point that does favorite Seattle in
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 6: today's game. So I don't quite want to do it
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 6: because you have regression points going both ways here. Yattle
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 6: did have more field goal attempts in that game, but
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 6: that was also because Phoenix went to the line a ton.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 6: Phoenix was still better than the number look than the
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 6: final scorer looked in that one.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 5: I still lean Phoenix laying the points here.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 6: And then the final game is Chicago and Dallas on
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 6: CBS and paramount. Plus, these are not Cup games, by
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 6: the way, I finally figured out how the Cup works
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 6: in the WBA, Like the teams just play all these
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 6: cup games and then literally it's whichever team from the
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 6: Western Conference in whichever team from the Eastern Conference has
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 6: the best Cup record, and I don't know what the
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 6: tiebreaker is or whatever.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 5: Those teams.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 6: Are gonna play in the Cup Final, which is gonna
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 6: be in like the next couple of weeks. So it
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 6: is going to be Vegas against New York. That's gonna
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 6: be the Cup final. Those are actually legitimate championship contending teams.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 6: Obviously Vegas won the championship last year, but those are
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 6: the teams that are vying for the Cup final. So
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 6: something to know there, Dirty Sock, Happy birth a man.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 6: Hopefully we get some wins on the show then for you.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 6: I'm trying. I try every day. Dallas is laying a
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 6: lot of points here against Chicago. Chicago's had a bunch
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 6: of injuries, I think, and they really haven't played well.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 6: Chicago's also coming off some really tough games here. They
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 6: played Atlanta to within seven at home, and then they
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 6: went on the road and they took Indiana to overtime
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 6: and lost. Then they played New York really close at
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 6: home and lost by one. I think that's kind of
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 6: brutal coming off all those games. Now they have to
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 6: face Dallas. I think it's kind of a hangover spot
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 6: for Chicago here. I don't really like Chicago here. They
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 6: did lose to Dallas early in the season at home, though,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 6: so Dallas because Dallas went on the road and already
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 6: beat the Chicago team by ten points. You know, maybe
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 6: maybe Dallas does overlook them a little bit. But you
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 6: could see Chicago's mindset here. They lost that game on
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 6: like a buzzer beater by an esk who I guess
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 6: against against the Liberty there. So that's kind of brutal
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 6: to bounce back from. Dallas is in a better spot here.
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 6: Dallas did just I mean, it was a tough game.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 6: Dallas took a loss against a pretty good Golden State
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 6: team Dallas. You know, it's tough to gauge what Dallas
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 6: is gonna do here because they are returning home.
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 5: It was only from a single game on the road, though.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 6: We'll see and it looks like I don't know what's
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 6: going on with FUD here. The number one draft pick
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 6: for the Wings here, she hasn't played much. She's you know,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 6: uh Becker's who's also on their team and their previous
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 6: number one draft pick.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: They they date each other.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 6: It's all this ridiculous scenario, but it looks like is
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 6: fun even on the team right now with the hellas
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 6: Project B Plan B. I have no idea what the
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 6: fuck is going on here?
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 5: Anyway.
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 6: She hasn't played much for Dallas this year, though it
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 6: doesn't really matter to me.
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 5: Dallas.
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 6: I think Dallas is the way I would lean here,
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 6: just because Chicago's coming off so many difficult games. But
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 6: the worry is that Dallas might not take Chicago serious.
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 6: So you got to lay nine and a half with
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 6: Dallas here, or nine eighty percent of the tickets ninety
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 6: three percent of the cash on Dallas. I agree with Dallas,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 6: but that's not a play for me, not even close really,
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 6: all right, World Cup first game up will be a
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 6: play for me. Yes, happy birthday. I'm gonna give out
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 6: a play here on the first World Cup game here,
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 6: and we are going to go with the Netherlands on
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 6: the money line here against my ancestors Sweden. I just
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 6: think Sweden they're coming off a really misleading looking result.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 5: Man, that's what I think. Netherlands are the better team.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 6: You can get about minus one forty the on the
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 6: it's on the three way line, so they have to
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 6: win a draw. You're gonna lose the bet if it's
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 6: a draw. But the Netherlands are the better team. The
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 6: Netherlands are also staying in Texas. They just played in Arlington, Texas,
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 6: so they're only going from basically Dallas, we'll Arlington to
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 6: Houston here, so it's an easy trip for them because
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 6: Sweden is coming in from Mexico, so even though I
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 6: know they're only playing in Texas here, so I think
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 6: it's probably the same time zone and whatever. But having
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 6: across you know, the border, go through customs, whatever, I
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 6: think it's a more difficult spot for Sweden. And the
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 6: Netherlands are gonna be the more desperate team here because
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 6: they didn't pick up a win in their last game.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 6: They drew with Japan, and if you saw what happened
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 6: in that game, the Netherlands had the lead twice in
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 6: the game, they were winning one nothing and two to one,
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 6: and then Japan scored a goal in the final minute
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 6: of whatever you call it regulation whatever to draw that game. Yeah,
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 6: I mean the Netherlands probably should have won that game.
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 6: The Netherlands also do have the best single player here
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 6: in van Dyke. Van Dyke is a very very good player.
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 6: I believe this is I think this is him right here.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 6: I'm not one hundred percent sure about that. I don't
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 6: know what these guys look like, man, but I know
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 6: Vandyke is a really good player.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 5: Though.
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 6: Anyway, if you look at what in this game it was,
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 6: it was expected to be a very low scoring game,
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 6: so that is something to keep in mind. But the
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 6: Netherlands were expected to win this game point seventy nine
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 6: to point five nine, but they did win the possession battle.
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 6: They had twice as many shots on goal and somehow
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 6: drew in this match.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 5: Even though they were the better team. They're the better team.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 6: They were the better team in the match, so I
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 6: think they have a better setup here to bounce back
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 6: after kind of a lackluster performance here.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 5: They were way better passing team as well. In the game.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 6: They were just the better team in the game. And
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 6: I know it was supposed to be a much lower
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 6: scoring game than this. That is something to keep in
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 6: mind as well coming into this game, so I also
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 6: don't disagree with an under in today's game either, although
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 6: I am going with the Netherlands here. But we're also
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 6: gonna fade Sweden because look at what they did in
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 6: their last game. They won five to one against Tunisia
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 6: and people are gonna freak out about that. Sweden picked
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 6: up three points there, and yes, Sweden was the better team.
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 6: Tunisia is not a very good team, though. Netherlands are
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 6: a huge step up in class for Sweden here and
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 6: for the Netherlands. I think Japan is kind of Japan's
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 6: decent man, so the Netherlands.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 5: I think the Netherlands might.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 6: Have actually been a smaller favorite against Japan than they
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 6: are here. So the Netherlands are actually stepping down in
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 6: class to vace Sweden here. So the Netherlands are playing
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 6: a lesser team than they did in their first match.
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 6: Sweden is playing a much better opponent than they did
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 6: in their first match. Sweden picked up the three points,
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 6: the Netherlands only picked up the one from the draw.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 6: So you have the Netherlands as the better team here
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 6: the better travel spot. You're looking at some misleading results
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 6: in the first match and the Netherlands are gonna need
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 6: this game more or match because they have one point
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 6: right now in Sweden has three. So the Netherlands they're
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 6: really gonna have to set their sights on Sweden because
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 6: Sweden is above them in the standings here right now
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 6: in their group. If you look at this game, Sweden
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 6: lost the possession battle in this game.
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 5: Even though they won five to one.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 6: The expected score in this game, I don't know how
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 6: this is even accurate, was zero zero. Yet Sweden scored
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 6: five goals in this game. I don't know what to
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 6: tell you about that. I don't know how that's even possible.
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 6: They did score one goal in extra time for no
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 6: apparent reason, but the fact that they lost the possession
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 6: battles to Tunisia that's not a good sign, and that
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 6: obviously tells you this five to one final was massively misleading.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 6: This game should have been like a really low scoring draw. Basically,
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 6: according to the stats here, neither team had any big chances.
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 6: Sweden did have more shots on goal, though, so give
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 6: them that, So they did win the shot battle, so
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 6: they were slightly the better team in the game, but
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 6: not by anywhere near what it looked like on the
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 6: final score there, so very misleading result from Sweden. There
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 6: somewhat misleading result from the Netherlands side as well, that
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 6: both go in the direction of Netherlands. Here, we're gonna
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 6: go with the Netherlands hopefully we get a win in
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 6: the afternoon here, like we did with the Swiss the
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 6: other day. We're going with another European country here to
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 6: get it done for us. Here, we'll go with the
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 6: Dutch this time. We'll go with the Orange here to
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 6: get this one of those. It's gonna be against my people,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 6: the Swedes, but we're doing it. I think it's the
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 6: right spot to do it. Netherlands money line is the
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 6: play there?
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 5: What wait? What uh?
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 6: The w NBA locker rooms? You mean, yes, sir, all right?
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 6: Germany and Ivory Coast. Germany's the minus one ninety five
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 6: favorite here. Sobs said that he's playing. I think it
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 6: was Ivory Coast plus the half goal, I think is
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 6: what he said. I don't know what the price. You
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 6: probably get plus money on that if you do do that.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 6: I don't necessarily disagree. I mean Germany, Germany's coming off
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 6: a really easy match, man. I mean they had the
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 6: biggest blowout in the first game out of anybody against
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 6: against Curasao, who I don't even think. Curas is not
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 6: even a country, like they're a Dutch territory.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure. I don't know why they have their
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 5: own soccer team.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 6: That game was in Houston, by the way, today's game
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 6: is in Toronto, so Germany is having to travel from
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 6: Houston up through customs into.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 5: Toronto, so that's not that easy.
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 6: Although Ivory Coast is coming from beating Ecuador, that was
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 6: a much more difficult match. Ecuador is a solid team.
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 6: That was a close match. I told you, I showed
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 6: you the odds on that game. I think Ecuador is
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 6: a very slight favorite in that one. Both teams were
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 6: plus money on the three way line in that one.
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 6: And if we look at this match, Ivory Coast was
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 6: expected to win about one and a half to one.
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 6: Here though Ecuador actually won the possession battle, but Ivory
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 6: Coast got more shots off in the game, so they
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 6: did outplay Ecuador, not by much, but they won the
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 6: game one nothing, which isn't exactly misleading. At least it
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 6: was a close match though, you know, statistically, as expected,
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 6: Ivory Coast scored right at the end to break the
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 6: zero zero draw there and get the win.
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 5: So it was close.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 6: It was it was almost a zero zero draw in
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 6: that one. And Ivory Coast where was their game? I
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 6: like to look at what the travel spot was here.
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 6: This game was in Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia, so Ivory Coast
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 6: does have a little bit of a travel edge here
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 6: going from Philly to Toronto rather than Germany coming up
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 6: from Houston. So yeah, you know, I actually don't necessarily
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 6: disagree with the Ivory Coast here. I mean, Germany looked
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 6: way too good in that first game. Germany has not
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 6: been tested at all yet. Ivory Coast has been battle
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 6: tested a little bit in facing Ecuador, although Germany is
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 6: better than Ecuador, so.
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 5: We'll see what happens.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 6: I slightly leaned to Ivory Coast, but you know, not
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 6: not going to be a play from me. So you know,
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 6: do with that information what you want. Ivory Coast flag
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 6: identical to Ireland, It isn't. Uh, it's it's reversed from
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 6: the Ireland flag. Ireland has green on the left, so
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 6: it is not the same flag. I don't even think
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 6: that would be allowed, although actually it probably is because
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 6: there Indonesia and Poland I'm pretty sure have an identical flag.
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 6: You can correct me if I'm wrong about that, and
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 6: maybe Monaco maybe in there, I.
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 5: Forget uh there.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 6: I think there are a couple of countries that literally
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 6: do have the same flag. I think it's Poland and Indonesia.
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 6: You can look that up. Though Ecuador and Curisl. Ecuador
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 6: is a massive favorite here minus seven to fifty.
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 5: Curisel.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 6: Like I said, I think they're the worst club in
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 6: this entire tournament. I don't think they're gonna get a
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 6: point in this whole thing. I think they're gonna lose
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 6: every single match. All these games are on Fox, uh,
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 6: Telemundo whatever. Fox Sports won Fox one all that crap.
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 6: This game is in Kansas City, Ecuador. Like I said,
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 6: they they're coming in from Philadelphia. Curisow is coming in
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 6: from Houston, so Curosau has a slightly better travel spot here,
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 6: but that's probably not gonna be enough.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 5: This is in Gayha Field. There you go, gej. I
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 5: don't know what that is.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 6: It's Arrowhead Stadium. I don't know why it's Gaha Field.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 6: It's because Travis Kelsey is game.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 5: I have no idea. I don't know.
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 6: But Ecuador obviously should win. I mean, I don't really
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 6: see a way to really attack this game. I mean,
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 6: Curisau is coming off an embarrassing loss, though, so you
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 6: gotta think they're gonna at least probably somewhat tighten up
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 6: their deepfense. So I don't really want to go with
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 6: Ecuador over their team total or something like that here.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 6: I don't know, but Ecuador should win this game. It's
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 6: not a game that I really would want to get
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 6: involved in, but that's gonna do it.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 5: Netherlands.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 6: By the way, as I was saying, I think the
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 6: undermakes sense in Netherlands Sweden as well, because you're looking
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 6: at Netherlands coming off a four goal match and Sweden
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 6: coming off of a five to one match, and the
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 6: expected goals in those games were basically like one and zero,
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 6: so and under makes sense in Netherlands Sweden as well.
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 6: But I know I'm going with the Netherlands to pull
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 6: off the win there, which hopefully they can get it done.
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 6: But I also I do like the under in that one.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 6: But the way that you'd have to attack that the
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 6: only number that I could see out there. You might
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 6: be able to find an alt line somewhere to try
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 6: to get it under a bigger number. The only thing
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 6: that I saw was under two and a half at
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 6: plus money, and I'm like, yeah, but or sorry, under
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 6: two and a half it like some big minus.
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 5: Or no, under two and a half it plus money
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 5: is what it was.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 6: Yeah, but I was like, no, I want to go
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 6: under like three and a half and pay a little
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 6: bit more of a price for it, you know what
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 6: I mean, Like I'll pay minus money to get it
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 6: or under three. I should say, like I'd pay minus
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 6: money to get it under three. But every book had
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 6: two and a half at various prices, so I didn't
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 6: really want to do it. And the majority of games
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 6: I think have gone over that. I'm not sure the
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 6: majority of games have seen both teams score at the
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 6: very least though, but I don't know. I mean, also,
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 6: the second match I think is less under conducive than
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 6: the first match.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 5: The first match teams can come in cold whatever.
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 6: Maybe I'm wrong about that many games going over, but
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 6: I think the first match would be more underconducible. Though
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 6: both these teams still went over in their first match.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 6: You could also look at Sweden under their team total,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 6: but you're gonna need them to get blanked in the game, Like,
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 6: if you do that, they could it's possible. They don't
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 6: score anything here because their offense. They put up five
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 6: goals in their first game and it was extremely misleading.
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 6: Their offense really did not do much, so they did
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 6: get some shots off, but still Sweden to go under
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 6: a half goal makes some sense in that game too,
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 6: but again you're I mean, a fluke goal can just
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 6: end that bet, so I don't really want to do that.
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 6: It's Indonesia and Monaca. What about Poland's Poland's flipped or something?
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 6: Romanian chad. I think there's some difference between those. I
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 6: think Romanian chad. I think one of them is a
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 6: wider flag than the other or something.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 5: I don't know. I used to know flags. I don't
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 5: really remember, though.
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 6: I got Romania's flag right on Jeopardy last night, and
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 6: none of the contestants got it. I'm like you morons, Yeah,
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 6: Israel has the flag of Satan, all right, that's gonna
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 6: do it. I don't want to get this show nuked
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 6: here or whatever this channel. Uh, the plays today are
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee and Atlanta under in baseball, you might ever go
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 6: under seven on that, but I found a seven and
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 6: a half at that one book that is the book
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 6: that took over ESPN's book, if you know what I mean, Uh,
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 6: the scoreboard book, and then Metts in Philadelphia also under
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 6: the seven and a half. That's easier to find the
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 6: seven and a half on that one World Cup Netherlands
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 6: money line.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 5: Those are my plays today. That's gonna do it. Let's
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 5: get it. Let's have a winning day.
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 6: And I need we need to get the soccer game
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 6: right because if we don't get it right, I'm gonna
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 6: be down.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 5: Even though we won the Switzerland the other day.
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 6: If we get this one wrong, because they're both favorites,
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 6: we're gonna be in the We're gonna be in a
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 6: hole in soccer, and I don't want that. I want
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 6: to Every sport that I have right now is in
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 6: the is in plus money territory right now, including UFC.
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 6: So we need to keep it that way, man, So
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 6: got to try to do it. That's gonna do it
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 6: for me today. Learn it tone on Twitter, learn its
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 6: one on Instagram, like it, subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 6: tell everybody about it. Let's get to five hundred here.
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 6: Come on, man, let's keep this thing going. We're hot
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 6: right now, I mean, if you like money, you should
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 6: at least listen here. Although yesterday was a one on
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 6: one day, you know, it is what it is. We're
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 6: eight and one over the last four days though, so
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 6: there is that, and you see the run we're on
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 6: the last seventy seven days one twenty three, sixty two
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 6: and seven. That's close to sixty seven percent. And only
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 6: one of the plays was more than like a minus
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 6: one forty something favorite, and that was the Switzerland play
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 6: the other day. But that's just the way that you
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 6: have to attack soccer. So we're not playing these huge
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 6: moneyline favorites or anything here. You know how we do it.
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 6: Listen on audio Apple, Spotify speaker. That all helps as well.
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 5: Forget what else I had to say here because I
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 5: gotta get out of here. Loser casts every Tuesday.
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 6: Check that out Giants g Spot podcast will be back
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 6: at some point covered in you because my yuke channel
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 6: on YouTube and page roon dot com slash learn to
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 6: toad if you want to support me that way.
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out everybody, uh peace.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 6: Pulling his flipped all right, Yeah, I should have remembered
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 6: that I don't know money and me or I think
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 6: you will tell everybody about that. Yes, one is better
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 6: than the other, money is better than I am what idiocracy?
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 5: Drop?
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 6: I don't know that's That's a good movie, by the way,
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 6: and it was very predictive.
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 5: Peace. I have the drops, I just haven't been using them.
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 5: I don't know. I need situations to you.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: Your name stells me something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on, nothing nice, now, hold on,
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: hold on. Let me foll.
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 4: That b bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now,