Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 136 : Are These Poor Starts Real?

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Ep. 136 : Are These Poor Starts Real? · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome every buddy to episode one thirty six
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: of Cards and Categories. I am Mike Coolard, and I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: am joined here as always by my very good friend
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Jeremy Brewer, and we are gonna be talking about the
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: flip side of the coin from what we did last week.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Last week we were singing the praises of guys who
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: were breaking out. Now we're gonna get into the dirty,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: nasty stuff. We're gonna get into the guys who are
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: playing poorly, dragging them while they're down, kicking them while
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: they're down, but maybe giving some of them a little
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: bit more life. How you feeling about this examination of
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: the other side of the coin here for tonight.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: This is the fun side of the coin, because there
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: it's all about the guys that you like, either had
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: like over expectations last year, like they exceed the expectation,
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: like is it real? Or the the guys that are like,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: come on, I know there's more in the tank, and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: you know you're going to be right on some of
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the guys, but it's really hard to believe these are
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: the guys early in the season. Is hard to believe
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: on where you wait, like two months from now, these
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: guys have this like three four week swing where they
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: go down and everybody doesn't even notice, and so it's
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: a really interesting time of the season. So I think
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: I think it's fun. I'm excited to talk about it.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I don't know about you, but I find
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: this side at the coin much harder to speak to
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: because we're still in small sample sized theater here. But
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I think we are seeing some players that their underlying
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: traits are maybe shifting the profile, that profile that we
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: initially had put towards them at the beginning of the
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: season and in draft season. But I think some we'll
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: see them turn around. But I think we do have
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: some where we've seen enough of the red flag starting
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: to go up where we've got to start thinking about
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: alternative plans. And so yeah, because of that, it does
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: make it harder. It's much easier, I think, to spot
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: an early breakout, especially for pitching, like the pictures that
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: we two of the three that we talked about last
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: week are still healthy. Everybody and their mother talked about
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Mick Abel in the Fantasy Baseball blogosphere last week, and
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: we definitely all cursed him because he was literally my
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: piece from BP this week ran on Monday morning, and
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: within twenty minutes Mick Abel had gone on the il
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: from me just like singing his praises and being the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: main subject of that piece on BP. So it aged
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: real great. So lots of lots of injuries that can
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: turn the corner pretty rapidly on any player evaluation. We've
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: got more of them here in the news and notes.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: But I figured we're actually opening with previewing. What we're
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: going to talk about this week is supposed to last
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: week when I buried it. So yes, that is going
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: to be the meat and potatoes here, is talking about
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: players that are struggling right now and whether or not
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: we think they can actually turn it around or if
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: they are going to be mired in a slump because
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: just things have fallen apart on them. Like I alluded to,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do news and notes, We're gonna run through
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: a decent number of injuries, but we've got some fun
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: stuff first. So the big call up that we had,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: he pitched this afternoon we are speaking on April twenty
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: second here, and it didn't go so hot, but it
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: was a bad first inning and he still picked up
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: seven k's in his short outing we're talking Didier Frentes
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: from the Atlanta Braves, and he was just absolutely lights
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: out during spring training and during the time in the miners.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Although the recent the most recent game before this, he
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: had given up four runs in the miner in the miners,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and so you know, we're still working with something down there.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Spring training unstoppable sixty six era over thirteen and two
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: thirds innings, looked like he was going to make the rotation,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: but now is certainly in the rotation going forward, as
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: they've kind of removed Martin Perez from that rotation down
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta. Actually, I take that back. They've just moved
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to a six man rotation. They still have marteine Pez,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if he's very long for that spot.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Fuenttes looked pretty good today outside of that first inning.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Like I said, it went a little sideways in that
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: first inning. All four runs came across in the first inning,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: with a double that scored a run and a big
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: three run homer from Dalen Mile. But then he settled
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: in after that. Seven k's in his three innings over
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: seventy four pitches. I'm not scared away. I was ready
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: to praise did Dyer point is because of how great
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: he's been and this rotation spot opening up that if anything,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: if his price got lower because of this outing, certainly
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: go by. Because this kind of reminds me a little
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: bit like the Noah Schultz outing where he debuted and
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: you get a little nerves going in that first inning.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: It's a little shaky, you groove one. It give us
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: a big crooked number. The fact that he settled in
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: this isn't like the dider point as we saw last
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: year that fell apart and just couldn't bring it back together.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: I think this is a new picture. What do you
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: think about fin does here in Atlanta?
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like two winters. I mean it's
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: it's it's hard. You got a twenty year old that's
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: that's up in the majors here. But the skills are there.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: The skills are there. It's absolutely just the question of
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: maturity and also a question of innings for for winter does.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I mean I actually expected him to be like getting
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: short starts in the miners, and he was going seven
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: eight innings in the in the miners, like he was
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: going deep into games. So in the braves they have
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: a tendency to just kind of let guys run. So
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I'm excited about him. I'm not like throwing him at
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: the top of the top thirty or anything started by
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: any means. I think there's gonna be some growing pains,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: but it's hard to look at the profile and see
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: a negative outcome for for winters. So I would definitely
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: be picking up, definitely adding him. You know, he's probably
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: gonna be a little homer prone. I think it's probably
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: the biggest red flag that he has. But beyond that,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: he's going to deliver the strikeouts. You know, even if
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: he's homer prone, he'll keep the whip relatively in check
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: because of the control that he does have so multiple
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: multi pitch mix it's you know, the times now to
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: get in on him, and you know there might be
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: a little bumpy here and there, but in the grand
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: scheme of things you write him over the season. This
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: is a guy that I think uh is going to
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: be kind of like last year we talked about Ya
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Savage's miss Lerowskis and guys like that that really showed
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: something when they got up. I think this is a
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: guy that could do that this year. So I really
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: I really.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Like yeah, and I mean, I think even speaking to
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the homer prone nous, I think it's something it's one
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: of the last things that can develop at the majors
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: two where especially you're talking about a guy with pointis
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: who was blowing away the minor leagues, and whenever he
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: was in a sticky situation a three to one count,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: you know, a two to one count, I think he
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: was probably used to in the minors just piping in
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: one of his hot fastballs and being able to bullet
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: by players. That's not going to fly in the majors.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: So no, it's it's that it's that slight adjustment to
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: not not piping one in there in still understanding that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: maybe hey, a walk here is better than giving up
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: the three und shot to daylan Lyle that that's kind
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: of like the last piece of seasoning. Lots of young
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: arms still need in the majors, and so that's an
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: easy wrinkle. I think for Fuentas to work out the
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: stuff is super nasty, and I think, yeah, he can
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: be added everywhere the way Schultz was. Honestly, I probably
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: have a little more faith than Fuentes just because he
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: has gone through some of the bumpiness already from last season,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: but I think he's going to be on a shorter
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: leash innings wise than Schultz just because of some of
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the injuries that limited him last year. But I think
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: in dynasty keeper situations, you're talking about two of the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: most electric arms out there between Fuentas and Schultz. So
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: if you're in those situations, huge up arrows going into
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven. I think you can really count on
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: them in that situation. Okay, next piece of news we
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: have is the return from an injury. We've finally got
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler slated to scale ual this weekend. It looks
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: like is when he's going to be coming back. And
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: things have been a little rough ra him in the
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: miners that certainly he's been getting touched up, and I
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: mean there is a push and poll component here where
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: like if he'd gone through this in spring training and
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: you know, he was trying to work things out and
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: trying to tune himself up, maybe you're not going to
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: see quite as many people pounce on him because, like
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: in the miners right now, they're playing real games, Like
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: these guys are playing for their livelihoods. They're trying to
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: play to make those minor League playoffs, They're going to
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: tee off on Zack Wheeler no matter what he's trying
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: to do in terms of tuning back up from his
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: thoracic outlet surgery from off season. Now, if you do recall,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: this is like the less concerning of the thoracic outlets.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: This is the one that like Merril Kelly had where
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: it's related to a blood clot and it's it's got
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit better track record of return as opposed
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: to Honestly, I don't even know what the other one is, Yeah,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: other bad thoracic outlet. So he has been getting touched up.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: He has not been dialing up the radar the way
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: that we've seen in the past, which is certainly concerning.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: But the Phillies have felt good enough to be fast
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: tracking him through. And this is a team that is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in dire straits because sitting right now eight and fifteen,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: just ahead of the New York Mets, who are seven
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: and sixteen. That is quite the disaster of payroll at
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the bottom of the NLS. So the Phillies need great
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: outings from Wheeler. They're already in a bit of a tailspin.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: They have the open rotation spot, and I guess what
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: it boils down to is they prefer him over Taiwan Walker,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: And so is that where we're at or do you
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: think there actually is some sort of return to useful
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: fantasy viability for Zach Wular Because I can tell you
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: right now if you're looking at his velocity readings and
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: his stats from the miners, that is not a fantasy
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: starter right now.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So I'm gonna speak out both sides of my
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: mouth because you know I can do that on this
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: podcast and do anything about it. I am a little
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: concerned with the last series. I think it's completely fair.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: You know, Wheeler being thirty five, almost thirty six, he's
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: getting up there, So I do think it's gonna it
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: will slowly continue to come back. I think that you
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: do have to look at this, like extended the spring training,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: and he's a guy that even in a regular season
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: took a little more time to build it up. So
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: I'm concerned with that. The stats don't look good, but
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: the silver linings I see first of ball, Zach Wheeler
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: is a major league pitcher. He is a good, good pitcher.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: He knows how to handle himself when his stuff's not
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: the best two. Like you said, when he was facing
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: guys in the minors, he wasn't facing just minor league teams.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: He was facing like rehabbing Yankees teams and things like that.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: He faced like Bullpay a few times. Like he was
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: facing some good, good competitions. So it's it's a little
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: bit different than what you would see in a normal
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: minor league rehab. And then the third thing was multiple
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: of these games. He was really lights out for the
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: first three or four innings in the minor leagues, and
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: then he would get touched up a little bit, you know,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: kind of stretching deeper into the game, trying to get
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: that pitch count up. He'd leave two guys in, the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: next guy would come in, let them score. Like so
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: the if you look at the stats and like the
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: era was five six in the minors, there's a little
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: bit of inflation within that that metric. So there's there's
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: enough little things here that I'm like, am I plugging
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: him is like a top twenty starting pitcher right now? No?
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: I can't do that. Do I see him to that?
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: For Zack Wheeler, I I do. I think he can
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: get back to being that guy. I just you know,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: I'm not anchoring on that right now. Am I gonna
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: throw him out there when he gets back? I think
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Sunday against the Braves, probably because my teams need some
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: help of a pitching perspective. But that's a whole different issue.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: But yeah, you know, I loved watch him for a
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: starter or two before I really plug him into my
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: into my lineup. And if I have enough pitching up,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: that's exactly what I'm going to do. If I'm dealing
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: with all the injuries like half league is, I might
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: have to take that gamble. But at the end of
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: the day, it is Zach Wheeler. He's a he's a
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: major league pitcher. I think he's going to figure the
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: things out. So I've got a relsely pause about look
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: for him. Just he's not a top five guy. Let's
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: remember that.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, no, I think that's fair. And I don't
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: think that was necessarily speaking out of both sides your
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: mouth as much as it was taking the middle road
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: of what I came you, And I think that's probably
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the more fair outtake here, is that, like, if you
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: did invest drafts capital on Wheeler, I think you probably
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: were anticipating you would be in the situation where you
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: had to ride him on the reserves for a little bit,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that he wasn't going to be ready to go right
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: out of the gate when he has done with his rehab,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: and so yeah, I think you're gonna hold probably for
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: a start or two and then see where you're at,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: especially after he does get into big league games, gets
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the adrenaline up, gets the full experience of being in
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: a big league stadium. That like, make your decision on
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: whether he's actually capable for the rest of the season
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: after that, and I think he will. I think he'll
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: probably tune up to being I mean, he's not going
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: to be prime Zach Wheeler, but he's gonna be useful.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: And we're already dealing with just a lot of bad
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: performances and injuries on the starting pitching side that Wheeler
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I think will certainly go out there and give you
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: decent strikeouts and the ratios are maybe just not quite
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: as pristine as what you've been used to in the
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: past from him. Okay, well you hinted at it. We
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: do have more injuries to cover, and this week it's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: closer like Mayhem to the Max as we'll start off
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: with the biggest one first slash, maybe because he looked
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: like absolute garbage when he was on the mound this
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: year before he went down with this injury. I'm talking
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: about Edwin Diaz of the Los Angeles Dodgers, big free
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: agent signing. Things looked awful, you know. It looked like
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: that season back in twenty nineteen when he first came
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: to New York and just could not find the strike zone,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: could not find his velocity and kind of control, and
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: the velocity never bounced back for Edwin Diaz this year,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: going down with loose bodies in his elbow that he's
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: already had surgery on. They're saying he's going to be
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: out maybe like two months. So you're looking, honestly, probably
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the All Star break is where I get Edwin Diaz
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: coming back. So honestly, you're you might be in a
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: situation where you could cut Edwin Diaz if you're really
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: up against it for injuries and need the spot, but
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: also someone I think I would stash because if he
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: does come back after the All Star Break and just
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: settles right back into that closer role, you could see
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: him rattle off a lot of saves pretty quickly. So
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: what's your your outlook here for Diaz the rest of
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six and anyone that you think will pull
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: ahead of the pack in that Dodgers bullpen for saves
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: or is it just a straight committee for you now?
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah? So Diaz, I'm all right with you there, like,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: and I don't think you can cut him because I
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: think and he does come back and assuming he's healthy,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: like it's he's gonna still be a top five closer.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: You know, he was kind of a disaster to start
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: to see him. But we gets healthy, they need him
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: for the playoffs. They'll get him back. They'll just kind
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: of ease him in later perspective. Here. If I'm if
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: I'm taking a guy, I'm taking Tanner Scott, And that
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: really comes down to how the Dodgers like to use
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: Vessia and training, and they like to use them a
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: little more of those fireman rolls. Even though Scott is
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: a lefty, they do have three other lefties in that bullpen.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: So just as you go back and look at the
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: bullpen users last few weeks, Scott's been the guy coming
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: in the eighth inning. He's getting the folding to work.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: That's who's been trying has been a little bit all
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: over the place in Vessie has been coming in the
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: fourth of the fifth and things like that, like in
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: a hard spot, and it seems like that's the game
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: that they that they want to play. So if I'm
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: taking a guy, I'm taking Tanner Scott and I think
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: you know he was he did the last year. Now,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: was he amazing last year? No? But was he good? Yeah?
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: It was good. It's just on the Dodgers being good
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: is not acceptable, so that's why they went outside of
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: them with Diaz. But I'd be fully looking at Tanner
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Scott as probably a top well top fifteen closer, and
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: I may be twelve closers right now that actually depends
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: have jobs. So I just haven't looked close enough to
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: do the ranking. I'm putting with the back of the
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: guys that I think are sure fire clothing right now.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. Yeah, I think it is
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: going to be like a eighty percent Scott sort of thing.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: But it's not like full non committee. But there's a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: little bit of hints. I still do think Vessia, honestly,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: in most formats, is still worth rostering because the ratios
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: are elite great er great whip great strikeouts and we'll
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: pick up a save or two here or there, which
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: in today's environment for Roto is really tough considering some
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: of the trees we're barking up for saves right now,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: including like two Viarlins and whatever is going on in
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Miami daily with Pete Fairbanks, and we're gonna take another. Yeah,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: So like it is a disaster. So I think Vessia
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: is still a great option if you can't get Scott
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: that like no harm. I think in taking Vessia, these
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: kind of the class reliever that gives up gives you
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: enough value that you will not regret it and probably
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: wasn't available in save holds leagues, but if he was
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: absolutely crucial there as well. Okay, next injury, Johan Duran
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: closer as well for those Philadelphia Phillies I alluded to.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: So he's saved five of their eight victories, which is
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: pretty dang impressive radio wise, that like, you got five
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: of those saves out of Duran before he went down
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: here with this left oblique strain. They're being pretty casual
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: about it in terms of how they're talking about it
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: in the media. They're saying it's only going to be
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, and it seems like it's a
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: pretty minor strain overall, but obliques are finicky. You're also
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: talking about a guy who pumps it in there at
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: one hundred miles an hour, absurd stuff plus ratings on
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: his fangrass page just like other worldly stuff. That he
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: was creeping up into the number one closer conversation just
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: because of some of the giants had fallen around him.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, he was probably never gonna catch up to
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Mason Miller. So number two probably is where Duran was
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: for me before going down with this injury. I think
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: this was one where there's no chance you're dropping him
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: unless things really go awry. Brad Keller should pull ahead
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: of the committee here. Any different takes here on Duran,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: anything that maybe gives you pause on this oblique or
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: maybe also brad Keller has been fantastic in his role too,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: So there's not necessarily like a push for the Phillies
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: to move Duran along because the team might be broken,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: but the bullpen currently isn't.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the only big thing I would
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: call out here is that they're being optimistic. It's going
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: to be a few weeks things like that. I think
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be more like a four to five
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: week type thing. So I think Keller gets a full
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: month closer run. Phillies are a better team than the
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: record shows, so I think, you know, Keller is pretty
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: cash on reliable, So I'd be happy to have him
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: as the closer for next month or so and just
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: enjoy the ride and get some saves out of it.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: But Duran is kind of a class of his own,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: not to make a Miller class to your point, but
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: he is, you know, at the very very peak of
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: closer ability, and so I would definitely, you know, take
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: him as soon as he gets back and plug him in.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: But I the Phillies aren't gonna be smart here to
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: not mess without a bleak.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. Next closer we had to go
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: down in. I mean, these are all Tier one closers.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Rys sol Iglesias going down with a right shoulder issue.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Now they're saying that there's no like structural damage within
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: the shoulder, that it's just kind of like a sore shoulder.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: It almost kind of strikes me as rysl Iglesias is
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: a thirty six year old dude. They know they have
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Robert Suarez. They also know that they're gonna be in
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: pretty good position for a playoff spot given the struggles
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: of the Mets and the Phillies. It seems to me
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit like the Braves are just kind of
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: making sure that Ryssel Iglesias is going to be healthy
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: for them down the street, especially knowing that they had
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Robert Suarez up their sleeve. So things were looking pretty
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: good for rysol Glacias had pitched eight and two third
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: scoreless innings with a K minus BB of thirty two
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: point three percent, so he was back to his prime
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: self with five saves. Different read here, Are you more
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: concerned about the shoulder or do you think it is
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: a situation where this is why the Braves signed Suarez
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: because they knew Iglesias was old and they wanted to
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: use the double barrel action more so in the playoffs.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you know, the Brave was due
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: to be pretty gus try and transparent about everything, which
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: actually I love. And the reason that he landed on
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: the il he says because he slept on his shoulder. Funny,
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: and I completely believe it because that just sounds like,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: you know, thirty six year old russil Iglacias that was
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: asleep and you know, funny on the couch, and there's like, dude,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: we're gonna give you a little time off. Your villains
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: of metsro concern to us right now. Let's let's just
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: kind of work things back. We'll give you some time off,
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: and he'll be back in no time. So I'm honestly
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: not that concerned about this one, just because the Braves
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: do tend to be very transparent. Suoraz is a great villain.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: He should be the closer next year. No concerned about that.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it's just it's just the Braves playing koy here.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is I think this is also putting
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: whatever hotel that the Braves stay at in Philadelphia or
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Washington unnoticed. Up your bed game, up your mattress game,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: look out for our players, because obviously whatever he did
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: in your hotel not a comfortable mattress for rest likely.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: So that's clearly the big takeaway here. Don't stay at
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: the Marriott.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, here's the next injury that I allude to. This
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: one hurt because like he looked absolutely stellar in his
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: outing last week after having a hot spring training, a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: couple of rough starts to start the season, and then
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: was really morphing into what we had seen in spring training.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Something clicked for Mickabele of the Minnesota Twins now on
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: the shelf with a sore right elbow, which is a
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: exactly which you did not want to hear, as we
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: talked about last week and the week before with Keelan
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: as well, in terms of the way the patterns unfold
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: for pitchers and Tommy John and ucel surgeries that crop
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: up out of them. This is one of the hallmarks
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: starts with a sore elbow where especially the Twins are
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: downplaying this and saying it's not overly serious, but they're
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: also not being exactly quite as forthcoming as those braves.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: We don't know what type of mattress Mickabel slept on,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: and this is a guy I would stash until you
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: hear some of those death drum death dol drums that
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: like come for elbows when this thing progresses in terms
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: of where the rehab and stuff comes. Because Mickabel was
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: really putting it together for the Twins here. It was,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: like I said, it was a hot spring training in
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: which he put up two h five ERA with a
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: K minus b B of twenty eight over his twenty
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: two spring training innings. The first couple of outings were rough,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: but he had just thrown thirteen straight scoreless innings with
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: sixteen strikeouts to three walks. Like I said, I covered
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: him a lot my VP piece this past week and
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: a main focus there was. Honestly, the twins just copied
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: and pasted Joe Ryan onto mckabel and it's been working.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: So I'm in on able if he comes back and
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: shows the health. Obviously, if this results in new story
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: of surgery, you're cutting bait because Mickabel is older than
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: you had anticipace twenty four, even though he's kind of
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: just debuted. But what do you think about Abel? Did
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: you see some of the breakout hallmarks that I did too,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: and somebody that maybe you would be stashing in more
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: of like a dynasty keeper format if the surgery knife
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: comes for him.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I might be as high on Abel
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: as you are. I do see some control concerns that
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: seems like he's had through his career. I'm not quite
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: sure that he's fully figured that out. It is early
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: in Minnesota cold, you know, things take a while for
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: those guys to really think of things out. But he
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: does fit right into the kind of Twins mold, which
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: is give me a really really tall picture and see
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: what happens, which is just their thing anymore. So I'm
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: a little cooler on him, like I'm I'm not dropping
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: him by any means to your point, and just see
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: what happens. I feel like this is fifty to fifty
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Timmy John at this point. That's just like the to
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: your point, like the news cycle, this is what this
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: new cycle is at this point. So I'm I'm kind
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: of lukewarm. If you know, a big need comes by,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I'm not stuck that I have to hold on to able.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: So I'm a little a little bit further down the
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: pipeline on him at this point.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, next injury we've got is another Eastern Division behemoth,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: which is not off to great start. Nine and fourteen
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox have now lost Sonny Grainey to a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: strained hamstring after he pulled up lane during that super
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: early Patriots Day tilt on Monday where you know it
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: kicked off at eleven am Boston time, which would be
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: then it was ten am Central and then eight am
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: West Coast time, so I'm sure every commissioner out there
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: probably dealt with people who didn't get their lineup set,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: because I know I did this week. And it was
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: also like, this is such a ridiculous game because like
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: it starts so early, and like I feel like somebody
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: always gets injured in it, just the way that Sonny
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Gray did. It was also really funny before the game,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I was watching it and it was I mean, it
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: was early, so I don't know if like in the
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: haze of like me still waking up, they showed this
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: incorrectly or something, but they were touting, like, man, Sonny
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Gray is such a great vet. He worked so hard
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: and he gets to the ballpark early, and it showed
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: him and he's like getting on to do like his moundwork,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: like at ten twenty before the eleven o'clock game, I
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: was like, that's not great. I feel like maybe he
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: should be doing it earlier. But obviously I think that
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the change of the routine through Sonny Gray off because
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: it must have just kind of messed with him a
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: little bit. And once he popped that hamstring, it was
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: a no go. He tried to pitch through it and
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: maybe he had been battling something previously because it is
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: an injury that has cropped up in the past for
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Sonny Gray, and so maybe he thought he could manage it,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: wasn't able to do it, and now lands on the
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: il for the Red Sox. So things have been kind
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: of rough for Sunny Gray in terms of his start
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: with the Red Sox, a four thirty ERA over twenty
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: three innings, but the K minus BB is down to
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: a career worse eight point one percent, mostly because the
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: strikeouts hadn't been there. So the walks were still right
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: in line with what we'd been looking for, but he
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: was still trying to find his form as all the
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: stuff plus metrics were down across the board for Gray
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: as well, except for on the slider. But we're also
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: talking pretty small sample size here, cold weather starts things
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: like that. So what are you thinking about Sunny Gray
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: going forward for the rest of the season. We know
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: everybody that looks since this podcast knows that we love him.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: But he is thirty six, he's had a history of
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: hamstring injuries, he's on a new team. There's a lot
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: of variables that I don't really like there going on here.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do tend to agree. It's it's concerning. It's
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: also concerning that the Red Sox releasing to mess with
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: his pitch mix. So far, they've really been leaning on
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: his cutter, which frankly wasn't that good last year. So
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure what the play play is here,
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: but it does seem that a lot of the underlying
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: metrics haven't changed a whole lot as far as you know,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: velocity or things like that. But it just seems like,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: you know, he hasn't found his groove. I do think
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: he's better than the picture we see right now, but
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: I also think we all knew come to the season
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: like he's on the downward trajectory of his career. So
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: I still think there's a useful season or two for
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Sunny here. But you know that this might be the
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: spot where you know, he's now more of the four
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: or five starter type of guy than you know, what
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: we've loved to see is a cheap three or even
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: the two at times. So definitely taking Somenny Great down
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: hurts the heart a little bit here to even say that,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it looks like the he's taking a little
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: bit stuff stuff back here. Maybe there's a silver lining
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: here that he's able to take some time away, kind
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: of study what's been going on at beginning the season
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: and comes back and really kind of readjusts that pitch mix.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: But if the Red Sox keep tinkering, and let's be
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: very frank, the Red Sox are flailing right now, it's
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: it's not great news for the residents, even sunning yep.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: I think that's a fair take. Okay, let's talk another
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: ex cardinal here, as Brendan Donovan went down with a
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: strained groin this week and is going on il. He
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: has not been struggling. It's been a solid start for him,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: one of the main players that is actually hit in
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: that that Manners lineup that has struggled a little bit.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Out of the gate. He put up a three h
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: four four thirty seven five eighteen slash line with three
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: homers and it's stile in base over his seventy one
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: played appearances. So it was a steal at the draft
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: table for what he's been giving you so far. But
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: certainly a little concerning because the defense here has not
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: looked fantastic. It is a really small sample size, but
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, he hadn't played a lot of third base
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the way that he was for the Mariners since twenty
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: twenty two for the Cardinals, and even then obviously like
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: they had nol Arnado, so they didn't need Donovan over there.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: But they seem to really prefer Donovan at second base
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: and right in left field. So that kind of tells
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: you how the Cardinals viewed Donovan's defensive abilities. I'm just
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: kind of planning that seed because honestly, this is close
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: to like a Wally Pip sort of situation. Possibly if
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Colt Emerson had been better out the gate. He's struggled
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit with his strikeouts. It's got a twenty
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: six percent strikeout right at TRIPAA right now through seventy
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: three played appearances. Otherwise, the line's okay, two fifty eight,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: three sixty one, four fifty two. That's a one oh
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: nine WRC plus from Colt Emerson. But if he had
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: been hot out the gate, I've been a little bit
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: worried about a Wally Pip situation. Even if Donovan was
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: hitting well, maybe they start shifting him into more of
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: like a strong site platoon bat situation and letting Emerson's
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: defense play. So what's your read here in Seattle in
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: terms of your level of concern for Brenda Donovan's groin
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: and the possibility that you know that job isn't necessarily
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: a guarantee for his I think in Seattle right now,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: with Colt Emerson right on his heels, yeah, I mean, I.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Think Donovan's short, short stay on the ale here. It
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: sounds like Emerson was battling some rist soreness anyway at
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Triple A, so that's kind of maybe what kept him
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: from getting the call here. But Donovan's looked very solid,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: you know, still the guy he is. He's actually been
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: looking a lot better at the play as far as
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: his pitch selection, also being in the kind of early
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: season Seattle weather for him to be you know, adjusting
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: just buying is great. So I see no reason that
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: he's not going to continue to get that full run
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: a third. Like you said, he might get moved around
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: here and there, but I think he canna get kind
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: of a full full gamut once he gets back. And
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: like I said, I don't I'm not reading anything in
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: the reports or anything like that that makes it seem
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: like it's more than a minimum stay. It seems like
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: more of a tweak. Let's keep him healthy, let's get
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: him back up here. We're not making any big moves
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: for so I'm still done to that. I think he's
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: a great thing, especially with all the traditional flexibility he
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: has in the fantasy game.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Right now, yep, I think that's that's all fair, all right.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: You well, you just alluded to one risk injury. We've
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: got another risk injury that for somebody to the il
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: is Jorge Polanco, this time from the New York Mets infielder.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: And to say things haven't gone well for Jorge Polanco
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: or the New York Mets is maybe a little bit
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: of an understatement. It's a one seventy nine six two
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: eighty six slash time with just one homer fifty four
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: WRC plus in sixty one plate appearances for Jorge Polanco.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: It has looked just as bad as that line sounds.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: And so it's gonna be I think like you're already
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: looking at somebody who is pretty old in Polanco. He's
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: turns thirty three in July, battling a wrist injury. Drop
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: a bowl wherever. I think you've got him, even in
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: like the deepest of leagues, just because you don't know
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: exactly what he can do, and we've seen bits of
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: this over the years in terms of like twenty twenty
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: two and twenty twenty three, the same sort of profile
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: fell apart pretty fast on Polanco. So he's a guy
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: where the ceiling might be there a little bit more,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: but I'm not afraid to drop him because of like
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: where we've seen the bottom. Lonsto did return tonight. He's
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: currently zero for too with a walk, so that's certainly
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: going to boost the Mets a little bit. But they
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: had lost twelve straight coming into tonight. No team that's
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: ever lost twelve straight has ever made the playoffs, So yeah,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: what's your take here on Jorge Polanco and just the
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: rancid vibes of the Mets, because it's really dragging everybody
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: down where Boba Sheet's not hitting. Francisco Lindor has been struggling,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: but we also kind of know why because that handmate,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: and you've also got like I don't also know if
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: maybe just like Luis Robert Junior himself, is just a
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: curse upon teams that travels around and just brings just
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: these rancid vibes everywhere, or if there's just something inherently
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: wrong with the Mets because we're going to talk about
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: their closer in terms of our disappointing players, because it's
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: been an awful mess for Devin Williams too. So are
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: you starting to discount any of these Mets players going
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: forward because of just the struggles they're going through right now?
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, if I just look at a global scale,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: when's the last time the Mets like had a hit
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: or that they really developed. Well, Like, I just try
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: to think through there, it seems like you know a consonant,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: like hitters go here and don't typically.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: You know Alonzo but uh and before that David Wright.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: But that's just stretch it here, I think yourself making
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: my point for me. But I just I look at it,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: and it seems like the Mets really struggle to extract
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: the most out of hitters and the guys that show
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: up and do hit there. I have always hit somewhere else,
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: like the Lindor's of the World and Soto is the
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: World and things like that. It's not been the guys
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: that came up through the system and they're trying to
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: get the most. So like even a Carson Venge, like
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: you're not seeing that really take place. And when you
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: don't have the other protection the lineup, there's a lot
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: of pressure in New York. It's just it does look
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: healthy right now. To your point, is a loose robt,
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: you know, some issue because he's there and he's just
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: bring the whole team down. Maybe maybe just the mess
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: hitting development, maybe like there's a lot of things here,
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: but I'm I'm not really thrilled with what I see
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: across the board with with the Mets. Outside of maybe
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: Alvarez has look decent. Soda is still gonna be Soto.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: I think to long co to here point is just
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: cut of loose. Like I think we talked about this
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: even kind of our bicells in the preseason, like this
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: is not a guy that hits twenty six homers in Seattle. Like, yes,
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: he did it, but that was a huge outlier. It's
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: not going to continue. He the low average guy with
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: a little pop that they ask to play first space
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: or replete place Pete Lozzo. It wasn't Dustins to work,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: and here we are he's now injured. I'm perfectly fine
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: cutting bait.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean even with like comparing City Field
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: to Team Mobile, I mean, I think this is right,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna check it in terms of because well, Planco
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: is a switchy so usually use batting left. I feel
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: like the right field line is really hard to hit
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: it out in city field, even compared to Safeco. Uh
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: and let's see, Safeco is a ninety four and we've
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: got a one to oh six for city field. So okay,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: you can you can throw that away whatever you just
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: said to you for a couple of minutes as actually
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: doing life.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Look I was stabs and stuff.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well yeah, for all those other folks out there listening,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I mean, but it is like a field
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: and city field where it takes a lot of power
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: to get it out there. Like Pete Alonso played well there,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: Won Soto is doing okay there. I'll tell you that
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: it's really hard to kind of pinpoint players that have
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: had great seasons there. And so because of that, you
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: add it all up and it just does look like
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: this team is going to fall apart at the seams,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: like at any moment, considering the media pressure on the Mets,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: the high salary expectations, and then just there's no chance
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: I think they make the playoffs at this point, because,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: like I said, twelve Street losses. Nobody's made the playoffs
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: with it, and you're so far behind it takes a
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: lot of energy to dig yourself out.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like Cohen should have paid mister Peter
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Lazzo to stick around that. It's the hard and soul
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: definitely lost left the Mets.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and just all the other wholesale changes,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Brandon Neimo being shipped out, Jeff McNeal being shipped out.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I do think that they did not consider how much
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: just there is a soft team gelling component and they
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: just totally it's not gonna work, I think with this
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: set of personnel that they have this year. Okay, we
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: got one last piece of news and notes, and we've
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: got signing. Lucas dio Alito penned a one year deal
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: with the Padres. There is a mutual option for next year.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: I absolutely guarantee that will not be renewed, because mutual
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: options like this would never be renewed. You know, if
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Lucas Giolito pitches well, no way he's gonna sign his
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: name to that. And if he pitches poorly, no way.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: The Padres sign up for bringing Lucas Giolito back. So
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: the word out there is that you know, he's been
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: throwing pretty solid bullpen sessions and everything, but at this
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: point you're roughly two almost three months behind everybody else
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: in terms of real game action. I used to be
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: into these types of players because they used to just
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: be kind of cheap, it felt like, and you could
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: find the ability to get like a solid pitcher at
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: a low price. And you're looking at a guy here
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: from Gilido that put up a three forty one e
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: arra over one hundred and forty five innings last year,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: but it was a four to seventeen FIP. It was
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: a middleing ten point six K minus b B with
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: a one of his lowest career strikeout rates at nineteen
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: point seven percent. So things were going the wrong way
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: for thirty one year old Lucastiledo. What I was also
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: getting to is, I've started to just I don't touch
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: these guys like it feels like they never kind of
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: get fully into shape and they're always kind of chasing
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: their tail in terms of finding whatever groove people normally
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: do in spring training. I saw you shake your head
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit when I was bringing up that I
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: used to be into these guys, So I think you're
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: in the same boat. But it is a good spot
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: to land for a picture. And leading is also from
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: southern California, So if you think he hopefully feels comfortable
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: being on the Padres, what's your take here on Gildo
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: and joining the Friars.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's this is kind of profile that I generally
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: just try to stay away from. It's you know, lower
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: fastball velocity, more of flyball profile, with control issues at times,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: and so when you start to merge those things together,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: that's the recipe for guys with high whip and high variability.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Not my cup of tea and giolito. You know, he
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: wasn't you know, if he was striking out ten or
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: eleven for nine last year and then you know, was
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: just happened to sign a late, late dealer or something like. Sure,
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: but it's I sense that he's more back in fodder
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: for the Padres, because man, that rotations taking a hit.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not looking like we're really going to get much
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: from Gie Aledo. Here's this might be one of his
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: last big league deals, if you ask me.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think he could stick around and
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: bounce around for a while, but this, certainly I think
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: It's a maybe an eye opener for Gilito too, who
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: probably was going into this offseason looking for something like
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: three and seventy seventy five or whatever. Yeah, and this
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: contract from the Padres, it looks like it is going
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: to be a guarantee of three million dollars and then
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: like a mutual option for eight million dollars next year
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: and some unlockable bonuses in terms of like two million
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: dollars tied to awards voting. Yeah, sure, exactly. But I
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: think if Gilito understands that, yeah, he can probably pitch
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: for another almost decade if he just takes five million
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: bucks and eats innings. So I think there's gonna be
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: matchup based streams for him, obviously pitching in San Diego,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: But beyond that, I don't see the viability. I mean,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: maybe a solid pickup, and in know only is because
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: you're never going to find a dude who's gonna throw
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: every fifth day and give you a little bit of volume.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: But that's like the only spot that he's worth chasing
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: at any level. Yeah, Okay, Baseball card calendar, go into
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: the show notes, look at it, because we've got one
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: small tweak just to confuse everybody. On April twenty ninth,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: we have twenty twenty six Tops Chrome Black, which has
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: been on the schedule for a little bit, but they
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: added twenty twenty five Tops Definitive to that same day,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: two of like higher end releases. Good luck trying to
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: remember which one is twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: and if you're opening both, like getting confused by the
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: rookies in them. So one of the later times that
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: we've seen previous year set come out, and it's just
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: like right in the thick of everything else for twenty six,
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: a goofy, goofy release.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's to your point where we're four months into
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: the to the year and you're still releasing twenty twenty
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: five stuff like that's that's reserved for Tops Chrome Platinum,
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: which also is TBT on this schedule, So don't worry,
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: they still like to deliver that one very very late.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: So let's see mid July when we get another twenty
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: twenty five release. So, yeah, it's fun. Those are fun products,
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: So don't get me wrong, but it seems like Tops
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: has really kind of missed the printing press run that
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: they needed here.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean, I'd like triple check to make
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: sure it is twenty twenty six Top Chrome Black, because honestly,
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: that usually comes out. It's more of a summer release.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: It used to be even fall. Yeah, kind of moving around.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: And so it's weird that it moved up while everything
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: else that has been pushed back. And so that is
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: indeed twenty twenty six Tops Chrome Black that is coming
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: out next week. And so if you are chasing twenty
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: twenty five rookies, do not buy that Tops Chrome Black product,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and good luck trying to buy some definitive because it
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: is not cheap. All right, Well, we're going to wrap
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: it up here in terms of this first segment, stick Around.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: After the break, we'll be back to discuss players off
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: to bad starts and whether or not we think it
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: is going to turn around. All right, Welcome back, everybody.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: We are going to dive right into our main discussion,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: which if you go back to last week's pod, you
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: will notice that we talked about some of the breakouts
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: some of the guys at the top of the Player
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: Raider from ras Ball as of that moment, to see
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: whether or not we thought a lot of those performances
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: sustainable and good news is some of those are still
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: working out. Jordan Walker is still Jack, and Homer's Jose
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Soriano has still looked pretty good. So I think there's
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of takeaways from last week's pod that are
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: still relevant, lots of profiles that people are maybe still
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: unsure of whether or not they've reached a new level,
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: and I think a good handful of those we discussed
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: week have. We're back to discuss the downside. So I
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: think we also waited another week, as we alluded to
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: in the intro, where it is much harder to assess
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: poor performance, mostly because you're looking at so many different variables.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I think you're looking at small sample sizes. You're looking
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: at really cold weather, especially in the Midwest and the
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Upper East Coast. You're looking at some brutal wind conditions
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: too that I've been watching games. One that really stands
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: out is the one good Cole Reagan start he had.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: The wind was blowing straight in in Kansas City that
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: day and it was just like absurd conditions. So you've
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: got a lot of wind conditions, weather conditions in general
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: that are impacting things. We don't know if some of
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: these players are nursing injury. Still like usually they try
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: to play through smaller Nixon necks, and this could be
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: one of the kind of like key moments where the
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the team decides whether or not to shelve them with
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: an injury. Just look at like what they did with
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Bryce Iglesias and Jorge Planko when we were discussing those
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: news and notes earlier, and then ultimately I'm still honestly
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: relying on projections at this point for most batters unless
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: we've seen a substantial change like we talked about with
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Jordan Walker last week. Pictures, I totally hit the reset
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: button after thirty days, to be honest, arms like generally
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: move up and down. The latest start can unlock something.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: You gotta look at pitch mix. You got to look
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: at how they actually looked and what the opponents were
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: that Like pictures, I mean, I will rely on projections,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: but I will vary from the projections much more quickly
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: than I will with four hitters. So any other kind
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: of key variables that you're looking at in terms of
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: bad player performance, because I mean, some of these guys
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: we paid up pretty good for at the draft table
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: just a little bit ago. So it's gonna hurt to
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: cut them because the waiver wires already kind of been
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: gutted from the first and now you're in that second
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: wave of like, ugh, and I don't know if I
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: actually want this player or I'd rather try to see
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: if some of my bad performance will bounce back on me.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: So anything else that you're considering when you're making that
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: decision or trying to evaluate slow starts in the beginning
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: of the season.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that the main thing that I'm looking
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: to is kind of confirmed the preseason bias and so
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: like if this if there's a guy that I thought
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: had potential in the preseason and he's been cold here,
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: I'm not too concerned. I am looking at things kind
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: of with a blast half bull. If there's guys that
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: had question marks going in and they're kind of making
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: those scene true, then I'm looking to cut bait a
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: little bit faster on these guys. But you hit all
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: the right things. It is a narrow sample size. You
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: got to be very careful with, like plates metrics, because
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: it's a very thad line between a guy that's chasing
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: and the guy that's pressing. Those are two very different things.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: You know, when you're plate discipline falls away versus when
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: you're trying to make something happened because you just don't
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: feel right late, So you got to be really careful
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: with a number of those things. But it's early, you're
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: reading tea leaves. But we've got enough into some of
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: these guys that there's guys that I'm ready to cut baits,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: but there's other guys that I'm like, no, this is
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: by an opportunity for sure.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think maybe the other thing that I forgot
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: to mention because I was speaking off the top of
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: my head is opponent quality too, So that's something else
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: that can really dilute things early on, where you know,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: if you've got a guy who's been facing really tough teams,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: maybe that's causing some of the poor performance or honestly,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: the last picture that we're going to discuss, it has
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: been poor performance and he hasn't even playing good teams.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: So there's like some of that baked into some of
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: these poor performers too, where maybe they've also also done
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: this against really bad competition and it even sends off
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: more flags for you. So let's get into those hitters first.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Let's start with the funny thing is of the hitters
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: we made this list today before where actions started, two
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: of them have hit homers. This one had a great
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: game today, went three for five with a game winning RBI.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: But we're going to talk Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners first baseman,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: because even after the three for five performance, it's still
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: a pretty rough line. It's a one ninety four two
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: sixty nine two eighty slash line. This is sixty one
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: WRC plus there were one hundred and four played appearances
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: one steal, which I mean usually I wouldn't have had
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: to emphasize that with Josh Naylor, but you were. You
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: definitely went into the draft table expecting ten to fifteen
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: after last year's thirty. Only two homers so far in
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: ten RBI. So that also, like you can kind of
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: start pacing some of these stats too, and uh, you
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: pace out like what that performance is, and you're looking
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: at a pretty dismal output for what you paid at
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: the draft table for draft for Josh Naylor. So you're
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the hittery guru over at ras Ball. What do you
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: think about Josh Naylor so far in Seattle? Is this
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: the case where the cold weather is getting him? Is
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: it a case where maybe the big contract expectations are
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: getting to him, or is this a case where things
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: might be falling apart underneath the hood.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think this is one of those
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: where I look at it as a slow start, cold weather,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: whatever excuse you want to use. He's been unlucky. But
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: overall a lot of the metrics, as far as like
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: his walk rates, his strikeout rates, it seems pretty consistent.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: He just hasn't made the quality of contact that we
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: want to see. You talk about speed marks being down,
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: he's not getting on base whilst speed marks, Let's be
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: very clear, his speed marks are always down, but he's
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: not getting on Basically, he's not being able to make
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: those those plays. So I'm not terribly concerned with Naylor here.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: I think this is one of those slow start type
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: of things. This is a guy that season overseason for
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: the last really four years, has delivered. Yeah. Is he
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: a two to fifty hit or a three hundred hitter.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: We've kind of come back and forth between them. I
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: still think he's a two sixty two to seventy hitter.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: I think he's a twenty to twenty five homer guy.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: I think he's a probably a ten to fifteen steel guy.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: I don't really have any qualms of him getting there
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: and figuring it out because he has done this time
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: and time again, and it's not like we're seeing like
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: stories of an injury or anything like that. So I'm
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: really not too concerned with Naylor. I have a pretty
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: fuzzy outlook. Can I dropping the little in my rankings, Yeah,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I have to, But I'm not sitting here saying no,
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: I need to move on for Josh Naylor.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Yep. I think I'm in agreement here, And honestly, you're
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: you're like projection. I don't know if you do this
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: on purpose sometimes where you're actually looking at like the
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: projections and then you're backing in your projected stats. But
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I think what's actually happening is there just aligning because
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: you pretty much nailed with every like the midpoint of
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: all the projections going forward to sixty US average, like
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty homers, rest away, ten to fifteen stone bases,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: rest away good counting stats as the Mariners' offense heats
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: back up. And the other thing I want to point
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: out is April slash March is traditionally kind of a
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: bad for Naylor. I mean some of that has come
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: in Cleveland, which is outdoors. I mean so is Seattle
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: because they technically like it plays really cold even though
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: they got the dome, they leave the back into that
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: stadium open, which I think people don't realize sometimes, So
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: it plays very cold in Seattle. So something I think
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: you're just looking at a slow starter here in Naylor.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: So yeah, absolutely, Okay.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Next one we have is first basement Michael Bush from
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Cubs here, and this is a guy who
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: you know, was coming off of a fantastic season last
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: year and on top of it, a fantastic playoff run too.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Like it was all the production that Bush put together
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: was pretty much baked in the second half, where like
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: he was starting to look more like a like a
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: fifty homer guy in the second half of last year,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: ultimately settled that thirty four homers in a two to
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: sixty one average with a one to forty WRC plus.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: This year didn't hit that homer until today. So I mean,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: big ups to everybody who was still rolling with Michael Bush.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: I'm glad that he helped you out by putting him
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: on our list to talk about the pod today. But
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: even after that homer two seventy eight two forty seven
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: slash line with fifty six WRC plus, it has been
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: twenty strikeouts to eleven walks in his ninety seven played appearances,
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: just six RPI, only two doubles as well. So like
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: it's not great contact and there's been a lot of
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: struggles from Bush, but the strikeout rate has been fine,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: the walk rate has been fine. What do you make
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: of Michael Bush here and his three point two percent
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: baril rate.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's it's bad almost put that way.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: You know, he did kind of have a breakout season
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: last year. You know, doesn't really have any speed, relied
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: on a little bit of an elevated home run for
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: fly ball rate, and you know he did make some
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: true strides last year. But it does feel little bit
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: like this is the league adjusting back to Michael Bush.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: He's not a guy that has a long track record.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: He isn't a high average guy, and you know, he
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: is playing in a tough stadium for this time of year,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: so let let's let's own that. And so I do
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: think he's going to do better, but I'm and I'm
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: not looking at the projections. So you we'll see see
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: how nice. I feel like this is a two forty
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: bat with maybe eighteen homers the rest of the way
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: with two steals Like that's that's kind of what I
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: see with with Michael Bush. And I might even take
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: the under a little bit just because I think he's
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: just not a refined hitter and he has kind of
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: one thing that he does well, which just hit the
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: ball bar in the air. And when that's not working,
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: it's really hard to keep that guy in the lineup,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: and I think he's going to start to lose the
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: playing time, to be frank, And so that's a This
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: is a team that has high expectations. They cannot wait around
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: for a guy that is a power owning that.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're a tick under what the rest of
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: the projections are. But but honestly, I think it's fair
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: because I think there are some bigger flags here for Bush.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: One is I mean, he's just a streaky, streaky dude.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: You can see it. Yeah, and it's splits that it's
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: not necessarily like Nailer, where you can see like a
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: much more pronounced Oh. He's just kind of a slow starter. Also,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: mostly because of like cold weather, and like you can
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: put that kind of near together. He's just a flat
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: out streaky dude. The other thing, too, is I think
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: you nailed it with the league adjusting to Bush, because honestly,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: when I do watch him, it doesn't feel terribly intimidating,
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: And part of it is he's a pretty good use
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: case scenario. Two of this is not elite batspeed on
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: Michael Bush. It's actually or yeah, fourth percentile right now.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Last year is sixteenth percentile. It was a little bit
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: higher last year too, So that's a little bit of
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: a flag too. You know, is Michael Bush nursing a
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: small injury because he's down like two and a half
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: miles an hour on that swing average that bat speed,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: so like there might be something he's nursing. But at
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: the same time, because he's streaky and because the bat
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: speed is so low, he's gonna be a very very
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: like wind dependent profile too. You just alluded to. Wrigley Field,
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: especially early on, can be brutal on left handed batters
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: like Bush. It just does not fly out great to
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: right field and Wriggly early in the season because usually
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: like early in the season and late in the season,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: the wind is coming off the Lake, which is from
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: right to left and Wrigly and then during the summer
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: goes left to right, and so that's when you saw
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Bush really pick up that production. So I'm a little
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: bit torn here because, like, I think there's gonna be
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: more production in the summer months from Bush, but I'm
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: also totally not totally sure what the shape of it is.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: And You've also, at the same time, the Cubs are
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: in the thick of it. For the NL Central by
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: a Sterios looks like a really solid bat. If Bush
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: continues to struggle, I know they do not want to
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: play by a Steros in the field in Chicago.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: But if the bat forces it, the Bat forces it. Yeah,
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: And I honestly think it's a real potential. That's what plays.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: So if you have Michael Bush and there's an opportunity
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: to flip home for somebody who has higher hope, I'm
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: a hall for like I'm selling pennies on the dollar
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: with Bush at this point.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's move into our next one, because I'll just
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: flat out put it out there. I'm cutting this dude,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: like I don't I couldn't ever understand the draft price
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: for Caleb Durbin like what it got up to during
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: the sea during the draft season, We're looking at a
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: dude who was going off the board right next to
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: Okamoto from the Blue Jays, just ahead Esoch prey, days
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: ahead of Max Mounsey by two rounds the Dodgers. Max Munsey, Yeah,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: good one, but that has eyesight now. It just didn't
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: quite make sense to me. It was a very desperate
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: steels play, I think for Caleb Durbin at that price,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: because he did put up eighteen steels last year, but
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: it came with a three thirty four OBP. This year
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: it's a two fifty OBP. Overall slash nine is one
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: fifty five, two fifty two, twenty five. It's a thirty
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: six WRC plus no homers, no stolen bases, seven runs,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: seven RBI, and eighty four played appearances. The playing time
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: is started to also slip underneath them. This is just
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: who Caleb Durbin is too. It's like a utility that
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: where you should have never been giving him a starting
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: role on your fantasy team. This is a guy where
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: when he gets playing time and is hot, you plug
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: him in and use him. When he's not, you drop
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: him and so I'm not surprised by this, but any
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: hope you see in Caleb Durbin.
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: No, frankly, no, Like this is when I was talking
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: about like like bias is going to the season, Durbin
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: didn't make any sense. Craigslo is the only guy that
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: saw anything in Caleb durban in my opinion, And you
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: kind of look at that like he lucked into a
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: lot of those numbers last year and it was very
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: unlikely he's gonna keep it up. He was not a
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: fish on the base pass. He got lucky with some
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: of the power, and he just he does All he
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: has is decent plate discipline, but he does not put
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: the barrel on the ball. He doesn't hit the ball hard.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: He is a kind of he just pokes things around.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: And so you're looking at a guy that like it
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: was gonna be tough to hit more than ten homers,
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: that's I guess fair, it's gonna be tough to steal
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: more than ten bases because he just didn't have elite speed,
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: he didn't have elite readability, he didn't get on base
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: a ton. So it was already kind of a pressure
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: to make that happen. And now we're playing with Boston
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: with the team that is struggling all around, like he
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: didn't have any protection in the lineup, Like it's just
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: not a good recipe there. So yeah, I'm I'm fully
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: cutting Durban. If you're still holding out hope there, it's
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: hope because he had the what we sometimes talk about
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: is that trade hype or a free agency type pipe.
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: He was in the news. Somebody wanted them, so therefore
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: says the Red Sox wanted them. He should be good,
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: but don't. You'll look under the covers here go into
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: the season, didn't look good under the covers, and alfter
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the bat here still doesn't look good.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, yep, I think i'm there too. All right,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: we're gonna pair up the next guys because they're both
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Royals. We've got first basement Vinnie Passmentino, who
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: has opened up cold, but also jack to Homer today.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: So if you maybe the new thing we should start
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: doing is if you need a guy to jack a
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Homer for you and you need like a I mean,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: this was a pretty it was forty percent, but then
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: we got three hit game out of Josh Naylor, so
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: that's six wins. You need us or sixty percent wins
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: on the bats. If you need us to get somebody
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: going for you, just let me know and I will
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: put him in the rundown six or so hours before
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: we have to talk about them, guaranteed to pop off.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: That homer gives pass Metino a slash line now one six.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: That's a fifty one WRC plus. He he does have
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: three homers and one hundred and nine played appearances. The
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: strikeouts have ticked up a bit from where they've been there.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: Usually he's like a mid teens, but now he's at
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: twenty one point one percent on the K percentage. Jack
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: Caglion struggling this season with just one homer himself at
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: a two fifty three three twenty five three seventy three
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: slash line. That's a pretty ugly slug for Jack Kaglion
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: of what you were expecting ninety seven WRC plus. I
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: will I'll make a little bit of the case first,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: because I do think both of these guys have bounced back,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: and they're actually both ones where I would lean a
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: little more towards the projections, especially for Vinnip. Also, they
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: have played in some of the brutal conditions we talked about.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: With those wins, they're playing ale Central teams. They've also
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: played a pretty tough schedule in terms of opponents pitching staffs.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: They've gone Braves Twins for me, Baby Braves, Twins, Brewers, Guardians,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: White Socks, which have been much improved. That was like
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: during the stretch where the White Sox were good too, Tigers,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: Yankees in an oriole. So that is not an easy
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: schedule in terms of pitching staffs that you're facing off against.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: So I will give them a little bit of the
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: benefit of doubt there. I'm much more bullish on Vinnie
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: p just because we've seen the track record. We've also
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: seen streakiness from him. I am a little bit more
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: concerned about Jack Cagleion just because it continues to be
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: the swing path thing. It's actually like the Jordan Walker thing.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: It's just on Jack Caglion, where like he's not particularly
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: great at launching the ball, and when he's making impact
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: to where the bats coming through the zone, it's not
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: in a an attack position. It is much more in
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: a ground ball position. So I think there's actually more
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: work the Royals have to do to unlock Jack Cagleione.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: But I also think that Kaglion can just pure volume
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: his way into a solid season of twenty homers in
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: ten stile and bases, not going to come anywhere close
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: to the draft price that was starting to creep up
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: there after the WBC. But this is exactly the type
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: of back that would feast on subpar WBC pitching. So
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: what are your takes here in Patmentino and Kaglion in
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: Kansas City?
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think you hit him both pretty well. Like,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: these are both pure buying opportunities for me, because I
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: think the market's gone the other way. I was having
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: a conversation in the comments of my top one hundred
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: hitters are it's all about somebody like should I drop
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: Vinnie and you know, pick somebody else up? And I'm like, no,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: let let Vinnie fly. Last year in March and April,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: his WRC plus was forty nine. And do you know
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: what it is after some day's game fifty one? This
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: guy is a slow starter. This this is who Vinnie is.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: This is just how he operates. And then he gets
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: through the rest of the season. All of a sudden
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: he's at three twenty five homers. So like I have
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: zero concerns with Vinnie. You know, you don't see a
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: lot of issues under the covers. Kagially On, on the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: other hand, is exactly what you said. The guy hits
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: the snout of the ball. He actually has metrics under
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: the covers looked so much better than even last year.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: The problem is he's sitting so many line drives that
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: they're not translating into the homers. That's just a little tweak,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: that's just a little luck. Like I think that will
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: turn around, and your estimate there is right on. I'm
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: thinking it's a twenty homer season for Kegs, and I
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: think there's a lot of value there. It won't take
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: much for him to unlock. I think it's even better
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: than you know, the old Walker version we saw. The
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: old Walker version was very, very streaky. CAGs just seem
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: to continue to hit the ball hard. He just he
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: likes to Cabrian Hayes the thing and put it on
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: the ground. So I think there's some tweaks in there
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: that they that they can make, and he's still going
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: to be a really outstanding player down the line. It's
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: just a matter of when does that tweak happen. And
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: I think the price probably has dropped enough that olaks
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: are willing to move them. So I would definitely be
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: picking up both of these guys.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I think that's fair. Let's go on to
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: the pitching side now. First one we've got is hayes
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: Hu Slsardo, who through today has put up a six
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: ninety one ERA in twenty seven to third innings. But
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: everything under the hood is fine. The ground ball rates
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: fine forty eight point seven percent. The homer per nine
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: is spot on one. The babbib is a little bit
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: up at three ninety five compared to coming into this season,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: he was much more around that three hundred level. The
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: left on base percentage is obviously low, so there's a
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: lot of luck that's going against his way. But the
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: k MISBB is right in the line with where it
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: was last year. As you can see, I'm trending towards
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: being like, hey, this is everything's fine with hazes Lozardo,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: And maybe I think people might not have understood when
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: you were drafting him that, like you saw the overall
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: projections and he was an ace. Just look at last year.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: This dude gave up twelve earned runs on May thirty
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: first to Milwaukee eight earned runs in two and a
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: third at Toronto in June, six earned runs against Boston,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: five earned runs against the Reds, and lots of other
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: shutout games, or he was just untouchable. It's a very
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: up and down profile for Jesu's Lolzardo. That's just who
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: he is. Like, I don't know how it works and
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: how it all will get there, but this is a
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: guy where you can still lean on what the projections
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: I think we're pumping out, but I do want to
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: chick in with you because we're also talking about the
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: guy who you had as a cell when we were
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: doing our previews, and so I don't know if it
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: was like necessarily like a huge, huge sell for you
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: as opposed to the price was just really really high
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: when we were getting to the draft table towards the
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: end of the draft season, because people were starting to
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: draft Glzardo as a number one starting pitcher. And I mean,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: I think our point during that pod too was like,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could take Lozardo at this price, but
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: in a snake draft, I didn't find myself with Luzardo anywhere.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: The only places where I've got Luzardo have been keeper
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: situations or other auction situations, we're fit in at the
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: right price and stuff. And so I'm still in on
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: what the projection said for Luzardo. Any slippage for you,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: any concern going forward or is this kind of what
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: you were saying in terms of your cell, Like this
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: guy can't be your ace, but just ride with him
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: and expect these blow ups every once in a while.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is who Jesus Lozardo is. If anything,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: like under the covers here is better than last year,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Like the velocities up like a full tick or this
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: early in the season, which is great to see. His
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: ex FIP is actually the lowest it's been in his
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: entire career. Like the numbers under the covers look really good.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: Billies aren't the best field team. He's had some bad luck,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: the Homers are a little up, things like that. So yeah,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: I have no problem who's already here, Like I think
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: this is a by opportunity, especially how rough things have been,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: I would be picking them up again. The issue in
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: the off season was it was a cell because of
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: the draft price, Like it was just getting too far
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: out there because he was not a number one, number two.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: He's now actually pitching like a high end three under
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: the covers or even you could argue it too. So
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: I maybe actually like him more now than I did
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: in the off season, which is funny with you know,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: the guy with almost a seventy RA.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that is really funny. Okay, next picture we have
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: is we alluded to him a little bit earlier. Devin
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Williams of the Mets. Things are still going extremely wrong
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: for him on the other side of New York, and
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: if anything, it's gotten worse. Last year underneath the hood,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: with the four seventy nine era, it was a two
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: sixty eight fifth. It was a fifty five point two
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: percent left on base percentage over sixty two innings, which
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: is absurd. That is so absurd. This season, the nine
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: nine five VRA, it's a four fifty six FIP. Now
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: underneath that, the strikeouts are up from last year, but
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: so are the walks, so are the homers. The ground
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: ball rate is down. The left on base percent coming
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: back but sixty four percent right now. The velocity has
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: been very mediocre, and so I've noticed, especially like because
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: what really made prime Devin Williams work was here's ninety six,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: here's a nasty changeup. That's actually a screwball. Good luck
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out which is which, being by the
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: time that you have the changeup has fallen off the
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: cliff and the fastballs by you. If he's only throwing
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: ninety three the way he is right now, that doesn't work,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: especially because the change up is coming in a eighty
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: five right now, so everything's out of whack. JKJ pointed
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: out in our discord chat that the the the arm
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: angle here has just been falling precipitously for Devin Williams,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: which is an indicator of injury, but it's also kind
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: of hard. That used to be like a big one,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: especially when we started getting arm angle, But honestly, I've
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: been finding teams are just like fiddling around with arm
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: angle so much. Sometimes it's not the leading indicator that
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: it used to be. But there's a lot of things
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: going the wrong way for Devin Williams here. What is
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: your take, because I'm pretty worried.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was worried. That was last year, and yeah,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: he kind of eventually kind of turned things around. But
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: to your point, it looks like tinkering because they're really
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: messing with the spin rates. The spin rates are higher
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: for him this year, But you know, that's what happens. Generally,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: when you drop your arm slot, you get a little
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: bit more spin on the ball. But he's a guy
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: that before he left Milwaukee, he was throwing the change
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: up a lot more than anything else. And now he's
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: been tinkering with dropping the change up, bringing cutters, and
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: he's been increasing the pastball like there's just things that
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: shouldn't shouldn't be happening and messing with that profile ever
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: since he left Milwaukee. And that's why I don't understand it.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: He was great with Milwaukee, Why do we change the recipe?
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: And it seems like he's just never truly found who
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: he is since then. And this has happened with pitchers
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: that go to the to the Yankees specifically that they
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: think they know better than everybody, and they generally aren't
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: a great team for pitching development, and they kind of
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: tinker with things and then people lose their way. I
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: think that's what happened with Devin Williams. I don't see
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: any reason that that's going to get any better here. Also,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: not on a great team, So I'm I'm kind of
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: selling Devin Williams all day here. I just I do
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: not want to deal with the guy that looks like this.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: Yes, I yeah, I totally agree. I don't. I also
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: don't know where you go with this ment's bullpen, to
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: be honest, because Luke Weaver has been terrible. It's probably
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be I don't even know, like there's a decent
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: shot Craig kim From get some saves down the stretch
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: out of this bullpen.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: I hope that happens. That's that's just that's that's totally mess.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: And Craig Kimberl, by the way, that's totallym thing. He's
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: gonna he's gonna find his way to like the all
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: time you know, leading saves leaders somehow. I just pitching
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: for all these terrible teams in the back half of
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: the season.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean this is part of the reason
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: the team is a mess is because the bullpen is
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: actually awful. And I don't know what they thought they
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: could get away with, but it is a bunch of
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: just kind of dudes who looked relatively watched now in
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: that bullpen. If you want to take a really deep stab,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: you could consider Ryan Lambert, who has been pretty solid
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: for them in the minors and throws heat, but also
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: is not exactly like a control maven. So you're talking
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: about another high risk, high reward arm down in triple
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: A that could get called up and thrown into safe situations.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a it's a mess in New York.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: And this is one of the reasons why. So if
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: some reason you find somebody like sniffing around to buy
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: low on Devin Williams, I take it. But good luck
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: with that. Essentially, Like I think we're also saying, man,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: you might be cutting Devin Williams in a month or so,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: especially if there is an underlying injury that like everything's
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: falling apart so precipitously that I'm okay cutting bait if
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: there is an injury that warrants you removing him from
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: the roster.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, is this not just Luke Weaver waiting to happen again?
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: Like Luke Weaver's figured out his career path, I would
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: have followed Devin Williams and when he falls apart on
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: the closer like that, that's what's gonna happen here.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and they do the Mets not realize they can't
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: acquire David Bednar to like settle everything down.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: Never say never.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's true, Okay, last arm we've got. Honestly, I
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: kind of also teed up a lot of this piece
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: just so that I could rag on him. And I'm
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: tired of him because I was never in on Shane
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: Boz until this year. Because some other great pitching. We're
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: really in on Shane Boz. During draft season, Lance Brastowski,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: you know, Sarahs, they were both in on him, and
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: I wasn't sold. But I was like, you know what,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: these dudes no pitching. There's got to be something in
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: Shane Boz, and guess what, there's not. Still, it's actually
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: gotten worse with the Orioles. It's a five eight RA
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: right now for twenty eight in the third innings. The
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: K minus BB is really starting to back up on him,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: where it is now down to a career low ten
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: point three percent because the K percentage has dropped low
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: twenty percent. The bab it is at three sixty. But honestly,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: that Baltimore defense is rough. Gunner Henderson is an average shortstop,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: but everybody else on that infield is blow average. Right now,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: centerfield is better now that they've been using Leyoa Tavaris,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: but they're using Leota to Varus in Baltimore. That's not
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: probably gonna stick. They're just kind of riding the hot,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: streaking the bat while they can before it falls apart.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: And I don't know what they do after that. Maybe
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: Tavaris does stick around and hit ninth, but I don't
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: know if they can do that all season. I don't
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: think they can put Kowser back there. Cowser's awful in center.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: Fields and he keeps awful.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Baltimore didn't have a center fielder coming in
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: the season, and they didn't solve it and now they're stuck.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: But there's just a lot that I don't like about
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: this Shane Baz profile. Lance Prestowski actually today after last
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: yesterday's start, put out a piece where he's like still
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: on Shane Baz and I don't know why, because like
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: the only thing you can really point to is that
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: the FIP is a three seventy one, which is discounting
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: the babbit. But I just said the babbit is bad
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: for a reason, and it's also because the strikeout rates down,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: and then on top of that, the ground ball rates
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: also falling. On bas what the Ools have also done
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: is taken his slider and scrapped it for cutter, which
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: I don't get. It's much less movement and it bleeds
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: into his fastball and it looks awful just all around.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: And then the kind of like damning piece here for
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: Shane Baz. For me, here's who he's faced in these
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: five starts that he struggled through Minnesota, at Pittsburgh, San Francisco,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland, at Kansas City. That is not a murderer's
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: real That is a bunch of bottom half of the
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: league offenses. He has not faced anybody in the Al East.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be another rough season
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: for Shane Baz when you kind of line all these
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: things up. This is also a preview for my BP
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: piece this week because I delve into it more there
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: over at Baseball Perspectus. But what is your take on
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: Shane bas Because I'm a little I should just trust
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: my gut here because I've never been in on Shane
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Baz and now that I am, and I have a
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: couple of pieces of him in especially are CBS language.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you ever would just like go
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: into the standings and laugh at where I'm at because
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: it's a.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: On a on a daily basis. But that's that's just
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: because I'm in first. But that's a whole different, different discussion.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: The Yeah, I shouldn't have started the Kansas City starters
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: this week though, that's for sure. But yeah, I struggle
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: with that because when you just if you just look
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: at a pure stuff kind of guy, his stuff looks
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: pretty good. I get there, there's all this potential the
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: ball can pop out of his hand like things like that,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: his comps even like for his his arsenal like on
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: Baseball Sabbat is like twenty twenty two Berland or twenty
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: twenty five Hunter Brown, Like it's it's guys that have that,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: like have put things together. But he's just inconsistent. And
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: you look at the guy that has a little too
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: many walks to the controls not quite there. Does let
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: the ball get in the air quite a bit. Again,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: things that I'm not a fan of, And it just
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: seems like we've been playing the same game with Shane
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: Bobs for a while and really the nail of the
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: coffin for me is Tampa Bay didn't want them, like
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: I think we like we discount that so much of
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: like we called this kalb Derbt. The Brewers, who are
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: a great development organization, traded away a young hitter that
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: had a kind of a breakout season. They know something
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: that you don't. They are just like playing the fantasy
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: game and trading this asset that. The Rays didn't have
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: any interest in keeping Shane bas around, and they kept
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: Shamee with plannel handle around no problem at all. Like
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: what he's actually doing pretty good. So I'm kind of
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: there with you. I'm maybe a little bit more positive
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: just because I just like the ball coming out of
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: his hand. But like there's only so much of that.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: They can be said when everybody else can see it
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: coming out of his hands so well and destroy it.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: So I'm fine with the cell here. I don't really
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: want to trust this profile or started. I'm fine with this.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: This is the kind of guy I will pick up
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: a drop like seven times in a season because I
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: think it'll figure out. And maybe he does. Maybe others
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: are right, but I just I don't see something underneath
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: the covers that say that's gonna happen. The stuff's not
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: there the like I said, the pitch profile as far
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: as the what he's producing isn't there so beyond looking
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: like he has a fun arsenal, there's all the other
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: intangibles aren't quite falling through for Shane Baz. So I'm
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: fine with selling baths here. I'm not quite as selling
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: as you are. But as we said, this tends us
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: to be the confirmation of our preseason biases pretty pretty quickly.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's all fair, And I mean,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: I do think there's also something there's a lot of
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: other just flags going off in terms of that Oil's rotation.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think that they've got it all set up
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: to be totally great in terms of what they're getting
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: out of everybody. Trevor Rodgers hasn't looked great, how Bradish
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: has looked pretty bad. Chris Bassett is struggle, Dean Kramer
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: has been Dean Kremer so, but like the other four
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: guys in that rotation have certainly not looked their sharpest.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: And so that's another kind of thing to consider, is like,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: is it a team wide thing? Is it a Shane
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: Baz thing? And there seems to be something where it's
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: not all quite clicking in Baltimore on the pitching in
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: right now. Like I said, They've also all played against
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: some pretty poor opponents, so it's gonna be interesting to see.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: This is how the Red Sox get back into the division. Honestly,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: is that, like the Orioles, have not taken full advantage
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: of the schedule that was in front of him for April,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: and then it might get nasty for them down the
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: stretch if they start running into the likes of the
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees tearing apart this less
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: than sellar rotation. Okay, well that's gonna wrap us up
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: for this week. Brew Let everybody know where they can
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: reach you on socials and reach your work.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: Yep, buy me Twitter, ex Blue Sky J Brewer one seven,
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• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: one hundred their rankings. Coolly, where can folks find you
• 1:20:03
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• 1:20:13
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• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: pitching roundups there every week. This week we'll also do
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: a monthly kind of re examination of the depth of
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: each rotation. Across the league in terms of seeing who's
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: available at Triple A and Double A and who might
• 1:20:30
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• 1:20:34
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• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: Baseball building watch lists, I think it's been it's been
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: a great exercise for me just to know like who's
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: who and what's what in each system so that you
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: can know when somebody comes up. I mean, we knew
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: who didder Fointes was, but we're not going to get
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: quite that amount of information on all the call ups
• 1:20:56
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• 1:22:00
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