Latest / John’s Newsletter / Post-Mortem

Transcript

Post-Mortem · John’s Newsletter

• 0:00
  [music]
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Trump Revolution,
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: where we try to make sense of the goings-on in America to a nervous world.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And this is probably the last in our Tolstoyan series on the midterm elections,
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: and that's our victory lap in a lot of ways.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: We have gone 12 for the last 12 in terms of calls for the House, the Senate,
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: and the presidency going back to 2018 where we got a perfect slate.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: And nobody's even close to having a record like that.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the reason to give.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: Again, the numbers are hugely up, as they always are for the midterm.
• 0:50
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• 0:54
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• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: the Trump Revolution, the Founders Briefing, the Dead Realist Society.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: And please do Three and a Half Years of My Back Pages.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: To quote Bob Dylan in our much -loved chat.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: And in return all we're asking is a contribution of 30 cents a day, $100 a year.
• 1:13
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• 1:22
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• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: And giving you our last full measure of devotion, please do the same.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: It is greatly appreciated.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: Our community is this amazing thing.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: It was started as just a small advertising for us,
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: and we're now in the top 100 quite regularly for politics podcasts
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: in the United States. And always on the up, the numbers are rising and rising.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: So this has been a great edition of my life.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: But frankly, it's fully another job.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And for that, as we're running a business, we do need to be paid 30 cents a day,
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: I hope, as a small price to pay for that.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And we're going to do our postmortem today, where we are and where we're going.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: And then hopefully move on to other things.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: We still have ahead of us the Merkel,
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: the award for worst statesman of the year and most overrated statesman of the year.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: This one's been unanimous, no secrets.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: The egregious, outgoing, thank God, President Emmanuel Macron,
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: a man who's arrogant and clueless and not cursed by self-perception
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: as anyone can be, a darling of all the conferences I go to,
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: an abject failure in historical terms.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: And the award rightfully goes to Macron.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about why.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Then, of course, we have coming up our calls.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to look at our calls for the year.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: We've got four of them nailed down now with the midterm.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: And we only have one outstanding.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm hopeful that we're going to get that.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: But we'll see.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: And our call record at 90% is the best in the business.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: Dwarfing.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Ian Bremmer, who's so bad at this.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Again, Mandela with a piece of yarn going back and forth with yes and no would do better.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I can't believe that. It's extraordinary.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: There's no accountability in our business, but we're going to keep trying.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Or Neil Ferguson, who circles all the answers.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Just yesterday, he mentioned the Iran war being a problem after cheerleading for the war.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Or someone like Tita Fordham who refuses to make calls because she knows she's no good at it.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not picking on these people.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm picking on their system and their process because we have the opposite view.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Our PR is getting it right.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: And if we get it wrong, it's an art, not a science.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: 90% we're adding a huge value for our clients, but it's not perfect,
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: telling you why we've gotten it wrong and what that means.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: So You learn either way.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's like method acting, as Brando said.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: You can do things on the stage and you think they're great and they don't work.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: You have to be honest about that.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: And then sometimes you do things that you don't think are very important and people love them.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: You have to learn from successes and failures to try to be
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: the best political risk analyst out there.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: And in terms of our record, I don't think anybody comes close to me and my staff.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: We're really proud of that.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: But it's because we work at this as a way of life.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: We use the Greek empirical method while everyone else seems to be peddling snake oil.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And again, I couldn't stop by going after Ferguson yesterday where he listed Iran
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: as a problem after cheerleading for the war.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: The great thing about the Internet is that people are on to him.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Eighty-some thousand, when I said he circled all the answers, responded.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I do think transparency is a good thing.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: And eventually, less snake oil, more actual ability matters.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: So let's look at some big picture things and let's start with what we learned yesterday.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: And again, this is Occam's Razor.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: Don't buy any nonsense about 6D chess here.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: The reason for the cataclysmic debacle.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: For the Republican Party is very, very simple.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump, in betraying the Jacksonian base,
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: did something that was very much not part of Trumpism.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: He fought a stupid war of choice and then that war failed.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: In failing, the Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz,
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: which led to an oil shock on top of affordability issues.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: So inflation is the number one concern of people out there.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Domestic economic issues always are.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: But this is tied squarely.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: To the president fighting a war of choice.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: We said this at the time.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for a number of you saying that people,
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was very brave of us to say the war was going to go pear-shaped.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: Our own followers and supporters in the realist movement,
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: which tends to be on the center right, attacked me.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: And sure enough, we were right.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: There is vindication in that.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Because he was violating the tenets of realism and Trumpism,
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: going along with neocons and Mark Thiessen, Mark Levin.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: And the usual cast of horribles, Bibi Netanyahu and his bunch.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: And as a result of this, fighting a war they can't get out of easily.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Easy to get in, harder to get out.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: And the Iranians, as is true of any war game anybody's ever played,
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: in the Middle East, blockaded the Strait of Ramoves.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: And as a result, there's an oil shock on top of affordability issues.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: And the president spends his time telling me about redesigning the ballroom.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: This strikes and is a betrayal of the Jacksonian base.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: And it's just that simple.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's the Iran war and affordability.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of the greatest own goals in modern American political history.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: And getting at, so that's where we begin.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: Getting out ahead of this was the outgoing governor of Florida,
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: the best governor certainly in the country, no doubt about that, Ron DeSantis,
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: whose term limited out.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: And it's been quietly setting up a separate stall for 2028,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: finding things about the war, etc., corruption, the war, the Epstein files,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: hitting really the litany of the Jacksonian base's discontent
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: with What Trump has delivered as opposed to what he's promised.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: He's quietly stead out of stall,
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: but I think he had a look at internal polling and the day
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: before the election he pounced.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: The timing was very, very skillful and he just said, look,
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: the Iran war is a catastrophe.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to cost us big here and everybody knows that we haven't done enough
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: on immigration. It's been it's a great idea.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: He does get credit for shutting the border.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: He was very careful to say that, but it's been botched and it's now an albatross.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: People are hanging around our necks.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: He very succinctly and accurately, and again,
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: if only this guy had more charisma because he is...
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: He was a fantastic administrator in Florida, and he came out as much more passionate now.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: He went all in, he saw his moment, and he took it, he crossed the Rubicon,
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: and really had the best day of any Republican leader out there by pointing out
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: the critique to come ahead of the midterm.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: So he made a political risk call.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, he made a good political risk call, adroitly got it right, and attacked.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: J.D. Vance sees this.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: And Vance, and we were talking about this in the chat yesterday,
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: the vice presidents are structurally in a terrible position.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's why in modern times, they quite often win the nomination and then lose the presidency.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: A real example is 1968 and Hubert Humphrey.
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  SPEAKER_00: He was a dove, a lion in the Democratic Party,
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  SPEAKER_00: a senator of real substance on civil rights, progressive causes.
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  SPEAKER_00: Johnson picks him, humiliates him, ignores him, neglects him.
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  SPEAKER_00: But even though everyone knew Humphrey was a doven against the Vietnam War,
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: because he had to be loyal to the president,
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  SPEAKER_00: there's no tradition in modern times of disloyalty to the president.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: You don't get to be Thomas Jefferson and plot against John Adams setting up
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: a rival political party while serving as vice president anymore.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: American political culture is very much that the vice president,
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: if he doesn't want to commit political suicide goes along with whatever
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: to the president. In the case of Humphrey, Johnson eventually moved to negotiate
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: with the North Vietnamese and Humphreys numbers shot up
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: but it was too little too late and it cost him the election.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: Gore had similar problems separating himself from the negatives around Bill Clinton
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: and narrowly lost to George W.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: Bush. Biden When he was Obama's vice president, was passed over.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: He was seen as so weak by Hillary Clinton,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: and that was another mistake by the overrated Obama,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: one of the all-time holders of the Lifetime Miracle Award.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: Breathtakingly overrated.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Got that one wrong, too.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Hillary was not the answer to any question anybody had,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: but Biden didn't even make it to the finish line at the time.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is the norm.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: There are exceptions.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Biden eventually did win, but not in the succession plan I'm structurally outlying.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: I suppose you'd have to go back to George Herbert Walker Bush to find a win,
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: but more often than not, they win the nomination and then that's it.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Because they're chained to the president,
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: they have to be chained to him even when they disagree. And that...
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: Is the Humphrey-like position that J.D.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Vance has found himself in.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's tarred with the brush of the Iran war,
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: even though everybody knows he's against the Iran war. That's the paradox.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: And so to try to counter what he saw as DeSantis making hands...
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, yesterday he released a rather remarkable text on X.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: You can find it very honestly, again, in line with DeSantis.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: Finally, the veil is lifted.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: This is what politics does.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: It forces Jeffersonian accountability,
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: and people are talking honestly about the problems of Trump's second term
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: for the first time ever.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: And Vance noted that the main problem wasn't turnout.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: The main problem was the war.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: And that everybody knows that.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: And the president himself obliquely mentioned it to the Wall Street Journal.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that this indeed is the problem.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: And that if we can't talk about it, we have an even bigger problem.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: How do you get MAGA back?
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: And he lists four basic ideas, a mini platform, you end the Iran war,
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: you focus on inflation and affordability and the cost of living,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: you put America first, and really eye-catchingly, you change relations with Israel.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: That last one is a shout out to all the younger members of the GOP cohort who are
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: so disillusioned about Bibi Netanyahu being the tail that wagged the American dog.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a shout out to that very disaffected younger cohort.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: It was amazing, though, that he listed as one of the four.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: And this is the very week, and even Trump saw this week,
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: that formal aid ties to Israel have come to an end.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: Trump referenced Senator, now El Saeed, Senator-elect El Saeed,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: for very cleverly saying, as a left-wing populist,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: people want schools for their kids.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: They don't want to buy bombs to kill other people's kids,
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: which is a reference to Israel and Gaza.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: And so Trump stopped giving Israel formal aid.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: There are all kinds of ties, by the way, still.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: But formally, that aid was stopped, actually, at the suggestion of Bibi Netanyahu.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Who can see the writing on the wall?
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: There are lots of other ways that Israel gets money and has ties
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: to Americans involved too closely in American defense appropriations,
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: but that's for another podcast.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: So he lays out the big four for him and the Iran war, focus on inflation,
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: put America first, change the relationship.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: But Vance
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: said forthrightly.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: And again, thank God we're finally having an honest discussion.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: I've learned this in D.C.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: When things metastasize, when they're not mentioned,
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: when they're not exposed to the disinfectant of sunshine, of overt transparency.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: And Vance said the reason we lost is the war.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: He was forced to say so because of DeSantis and what this is.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: If point one is Iran cost us this cataclysmic result, the Republicans,
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: point two is 2028 has already started.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: When you lose and you're in power, it starts earlier.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: And DeSantis' move and Vance's counter move, this is the beginning of the campaign.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: And what this means, and Diane I think put it very well in the comments,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: is that the coronation for Vance is over because of the shellacking
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: and because he's tied even though he's against the war and everyone knows he's been
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: and counseled Trump against fighting.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: We're creating it in the first place, only to be outmaneuvered by Hegseth.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: The chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the Israelis with Ruben Rubio
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: and Besson having this middle position that we should really focus
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: on economic strictures.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to that there's a three way division among advisors.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: And where the Iran war goes from here
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: after the election may well be our next podcast.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: We may do that one tomorrow.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: That kind of goes with this,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: oh God we're adding another piece here but I think I think we need to talk
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: about that But probably not now.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the beginning of where we're going to be going.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: And the first step is everybody running agrees that Iran is this cataclysmic problem.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: The second step is the campaign has begun now.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: As Diane said, there's no coronation.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't rule Vance out.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: I agree with that.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: But it opens the door to other people to get in.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: Rubio remains the great enigma in question mark and certainly DeSantis now seems
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: to be all in and making hay.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: So there's going to be a real fight within the party for the nomination
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: and that would be point number two.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: The third point is let's talk a little bit about the crosstabs
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: because the exit polling is in and it's always that's fascinating
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: because these are real numbers that gives real rigor.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is what all those people I mentioned don't do.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Dig in and do some actual analytical work.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: They're just talking heads and brands.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: They're not particularly successful at political risk.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so let's dig in a little bit together and look at the crosstabs for our third point.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: The war in Iran sent gas prices 40% higher.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: So there's that to keep in mind as you look at its context.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: To see that there's been a backlash on Hispanics who had drifted toward Trump
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: in 2024, he got only seven points fewer Hispanic votes than Kamala Harris.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a traditional democratic bastion.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: This was a huge inroad that Trump made that helped allow for his victory in 2024.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: However...
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: In 2026, in counties that were 80% or more Hispanic,
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: they favored Democrats by a whopping 40 points.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: So there's been immigration blowback among Hispanics who've drifted away from the MAGA movement.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: The two things that happened, though, very clearly from the crosstabs, if you look,
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: the CNN exit polls are excellent.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's about the only time I'd use the word excellent and CNN in the same sentence,
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: but there you go, they are.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Independent voters and...
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: And disaffected Republicans are the two real keys to the story,
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: along with the Hispanic piece of the puzzle that I just laid out.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: Independent voters combined with a significant number of non-MAGA Republicans
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: to lead to this tsunami against the GOP.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: Fully one-third of voters describe themselves as independents.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: And half of the Democratic winning margin came from them deserting Trump.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: He won almost 60% of independence in his successful 2024 bid.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: This time, Democrats won independence by 70%.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's a whomping 17 points,
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: and fully half of their winning margin comes from independent voters deserting Trump
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: in droves over affordability, the war, corruption, and his general lack of,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: he didn't even try domestically, as somebody said, in this critical period of time,
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: which was what he was elected to do.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: And so independence deserted him.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats also won, amazingly, 15% of non-MAGA Republicans.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: Of non-MAGA Republicans.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: So this is giant hemorrhaging.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: So among non-MAGA Republicans who make up 20% of the winning margin for Democrats,
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: half is independents, 20% are non-MAGA Republicans, they won fully 15%.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: Again, as Trump showed in 2024, you don't have to win outright,
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: you have to knock down margins and you win.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: And so, yes, most non-MAGA Republicans voted for Republicans still,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: but fully 15% voted for Democrats.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's a gigantic number, and it's 20% of the overall total, which is questionable.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: And this contrasts with, by the way, among Democrats,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: 98% of Democrats voted for Democratic candidates.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's an unheard of number.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's everybody.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_00: 98% of Democrats.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: So they voted in lockstep, but they managed to peel off 15% of Republicans.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: So they had an unheard of margin amongst themselves.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, they peeled off these disaffected non-Mega-Republicans.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: Thought the war was lunacy.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: The president didn't bother to explain it, then said it would be over,
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: which is a credibility gap to use a Vietnam term and then talked
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: about building arches and ballrooms and redoing the Kennedy Center
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: while gas prices shut up 40 % affordability that was coupled with an oil shock.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's what all that led to Going forward.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: There's some other interesting numbers.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: And the last one I have that you can see clearly is a number, which is fascinating,
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: relates to the kids.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: And this is going to be the huge problem going ahead, which, again,
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: we talked about a little bit last night on the chat because I had time.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: I warn you now in the future I'm not going to have time.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: We are working around the clock here.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: Things are going so well, and I'm so happy to tell you this, our community,
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: because people really do care about us getting it right,
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: and we're onboarding clients in which I have to be involved really kind
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: of immediately.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm reading every single thing you write, I promise, but if I don't write,
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: it's not out of rudeness, it's not out of lack of commitment,
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: it's out of the day job.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: But I had time yesterday, and we were talking about this.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: And in effect, the Democratic Socialists,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: the schism of the Democratic Party that's there, and we saw this in Michigan,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: when the old establishment Michiganders began to turn on Abdul Al-Sayed,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: even though he won.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: They haven't even begun to deal with this issue.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: Every standard, old-fashioned, progressive Democrat,
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: still quite left-wing for American standards, by every pew number,
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: America remains a center-right country.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: Again, you can govern as believers.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: Bill Clinton very effectively on the center left.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: But if you go farther than that, as Obama did, you get very little done.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: Obama, after health care, got nothing done domestically.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that's another sign of Captain Overrated's problem there, a Lifetime Miracle Award winner.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_00: So this remains a problem, and establishment Democrats know this,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: but they also know all the juice, all the fervor, all the excitement,
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of the organization, a lot of the money is coming from the DSA,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: the socialist left, which is not part of the American experience.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: Not at all. And particularly these groups,
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: these immigrant groups that don't really want to assimilate into American culture,
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: very much part of what's going on in France, the far left and these groups,
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: the Red-Green Alliance.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: This is not part, either part are not part of American culture,
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: but just make it be the red part today.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't part of anything.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: Not part of anything.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: And This is going to be a problem. They need them.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: They need the fuel of their enthusiasm and fervor and organization to win.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: And they can win, as Senator El Saeed Talrico.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: There are a number of people.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: The weird guy in Maine won this last time, which is quite extraordinary.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: The one who married his cousin.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: The escalant tragedy won up in Maine.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: Troy Jackson won.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: So it can be done if Republicans commit own goals all the time.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: It certainly can be done.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: But can you get anything done to govern?
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: In a national election for president, can they win?
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: There's no sign of that.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's a great fear of the Democratic establishment.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: They have this tiger by the ears that's driving them forward, that's providing the rocket fuel.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: They absolutely need that cohort to be with them to win.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: And yet they're afraid of that cohort making things unwinnable.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: This is the paradox.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: They won at the state level, but now they have to try to govern.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: And let's see if that works.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: Because people simply don't know.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: First it was just get rid of Trump, we'll worry about everything later.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: Later is now.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: And the Democrats are going to be dealing with the Civil War.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: We saw this, what, we did a podcast on this.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: What, three or four months ago?
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen this early and we will discuss it often
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: because if the Democrats don't figure a way around this,
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: they will lose in 2028 and it will be because of this.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: You can see, again, that's what our firm does.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: We see things coming ahead of them happening.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: We don't, after the fact, try to pretend that we knew this would be
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: the outcome all along, which is
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: in effect what our hapless competitors constantly are doing with their snake oil.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: So an NBC national exit poll found that fully 17%
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: of midterm voters call themselves democratic socialists.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: 17%.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's very high, but I think that's about right.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's my feeling.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: not enough
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: to govern on your own, let alone win.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: But without that 17%, the Democrats are doomed in every single race they're in.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: So they have this tiger by the ears.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: They can't let go, but they're worried about the tiger eating them.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where we are.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: Among 18 to 29 year olds, the kids,
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: fully one third of the kids say they're democratic socialists.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: And these are the people who knock on doors in New Hampshire in the snow in November
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_00: for president.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: These are the people out there doing primary voting.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: Many, many, many, many years ago, I went up to Keene,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: New Hampshire and worked briefly for Bill Clinton. I've had a long journey.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: It was in 1992, I think.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: And everybody there was under the age of 29 because they're the only people
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: who can take time off and live in a hammock and eat Doritos as every food group.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so the kids are one-third are fully Democratic socialists.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: They're the ones doing the organizing.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: They're the ones with the enthusiasm.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: They are utterly necessary to turning out and for the Democrats to win.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_00: And yet the establishment are terrified of their politics.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, among the young, only 10% say they're MAGA.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: So...
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: That hope about younger people being MAGA, that's gone by the board.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: And the Democrats have to figure a way around this.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_00: This is the great challenge politically in terms of risk and also analysis for the Democrats.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: So what do we have there?
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's about the war and affordability and Trump not even trying. Stupid.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's point one.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: 2028 has started.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_00: The crosstabs are fascinating.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_00: And for the Democrats,
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_00: even in their victory, see the schism within their party,
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: which could make them unelectable either way.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: There's a Scylla and a Charybdis.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: If they don't bring along the Democratic Socialists, they can't win.
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_00: If they do bring them along,
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: they have to worry about going so far to the left that the country rejects them.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: Those are the paradoxes we're building on.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: But the starting gun for 2028 is now.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks very much, gang.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be back tomorrow to talk about what all this means about Iran, I imagine.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody have a great day.