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Energy Gains and Labor Pains: Navigating the Fed Shock · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of Spy Trader !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Sunny Smiles , and I am so glad you could join me this afternoon .
• 0:10
  It is currently 2:30 pm on Tuesday , August 11th , 2026 , Pacific time .
• 0:16
  We have a lot of moving parts in the market today , so let's get right into the heart of the action .
• 0:22
  The U.S.
• 0:22
  stock market is navigating a pretty complex landscape right now .
• 0:27
  We are seeing a mix of geopolitical tension , a sudden cooling in the labor market , and a Federal Reserve that is sounding a bit more hawkish than many expected .
• 0:37
  Today , the major indices mostly ended lower .
• 0:41
  The S&P 500 , which we track via the SPY , closed at 7,728.20 , down about a third of a percent .
• 0:50
  It has been a bit of a slide since we hit that record peak back on August 7th .
• 0:56
  The Nasdaq , or the QQQ , fell zero point six percent today as tech companies are feeling the heat from rising interest rate expectations .
• 1:05
  Even the Dow was down slightly .
• 1:07
  However , there was a little ray of sunshine in the Russell 2000 , which actually rose point three two percent .
• 1:14
  It seems like some investors are rotating into smaller , domesticfocused companies .
• 1:20
  Looking at the sectors , Energy was the absolute star of the show .
• 1:25
  The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , known as XLE , surged four point six percent today .
• 1:32
  This is largely because the conflict involving Iran has pushed Brent crude oil prices toward ninety dollars per barrel .
• 1:39
  On the flip side , Technology and defensive sectors like Utilities and Real Estate struggled .
• 1:45
  Even though NVIDIA continues to get positive mentions from analysts at Morgan Stanley , the broader tech sector is reeling from what we call a rates repricing .
• 1:56
  Speaking of rates , let's talk about the Fed Shock .
• 1:59
  Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve held rates steady at their last meeting , but it was a rare nine to three vote .
• 2:06
  Having three members push for a hike has really spooked the bond market .
• 2:10
  Now , everyone is looking at a possible rate hike in September to fight sticky inflation , even though headline inflation is expected to cool to three point four percent .
• 2:20
  This is happening at the same time as a real gut check for the labor market .
• 2:25
  We saw a loss of twentythree thousand jobs in July , which is the first negative report we have seen in over two years .
• 2:32
  It looks like a hiring freeze is taking hold in finance and retail .
• 2:37
  In company news , it was a tough day for On Holding , ticker ONON .
• 2:42
  The stock plunged over twenty percent after they missed sales estimates and lowered their growth outlook .
• 2:47
  This unfortunately dragged down friends like Lululemon and Deckers as well .
• 2:52
  Meanwhile , investors are flocking to safe havens .
• 2:57
  Gold reached a record of over fortyfour hundred dollars an ounce today , with many people moving into the SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , to protect themselves against global conflict and currency concerns .
• 3:10
  So , what are the takeaways for your portfolio ?
• 3:13
  First , you might consider increasing your exposure to Energy through XLE or Gold through GLD .
• 3:20
  With oil prices being so volatile due to the conflict , energy companies are capturing some significant profits .
• 3:27
  Second , it might be a good time for some tactical caution with highgrowth tech .
• 3:32
  You might think about trimming positions in the QQQ or the XLK because tech is very sensitive to higher interest rates .
• 3:40
  Third , keep an eye on the bond market .
• 3:43
  Even though the Fed is talking tough , that negative jobs report is a massive warning sign .
• 3:49
  If the hiring freeze continues , the Fed might be forced to pivot and cut rates by the end of the year .
• 3:56
  This could make longterm bonds like the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , TLT , very attractive .
• 4:03
  Lastly , if you are looking for a specific opportunity , keep an eye on On Holding .
• 4:08
  That twenty percent drop was severe , but if the stock starts to bottom out around thirty dollars , it could be a speculative recovery play as they move toward highermargin sales .
• 4:18
  That is all for this update , friends !
• 4:21
  Stay calm , stay informed , and I will see you back here in a few hours for the next update .
• 4:27
  I am Sunny Smiles , and this has been Spy Trader .