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Crypto Rundown: Buy The Dip?! Why Bitcoin and The Crypto Markets are Coiled to Trade HIGHER! · CRYPTO 101

0:09
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, everyone.
0:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the Crypto Run Down, where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
0:18
[SPEAKER_00]: From the fundamentals and the news to the technicals on the charts, we spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to.
0:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And we bring it to you all completely for free in under an hour.
0:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And we got another great one as we are pushing our way through August.
0:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we got some really good data today.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a lot of information coming out.
0:38
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of news coming out on both the crypto and the triadfyside.
0:42
[SPEAKER_00]: We want to connect all the dots.
0:43
[SPEAKER_00]: We want to make it all make sense.
0:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And we want to really just feed it to you all and pretty easy to understand the fashion.
0:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to be, of course, looking at the charts, looking at some of the price movement that we've been
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Getting here over the past couple of days, but specifically is it relates to the crypto market?
0:59
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a little bit of a pullback right now and everyone's asking questions.
1:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Is the top in?
1:03
[SPEAKER_00]: We're pushing towards that historical monumental point in the cycle about a year and a half after the having.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Is the top in for the crypto market or altcoins done running?
1:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to look at the charts.
1:14
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to answer that.
1:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we're going to back up what we think is the most likely scenario with some cold hard data.
1:21
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to look at the news.
1:22
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to look at who's buying crypto with the big whales are doing and a whole lot more.
1:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, I can't do this without my good old buddy and trustee partner here on the podcast, Mr. Tevo.
1:34
[SPEAKER_01]: My guy, happy Monday, happy Monday to you, happy Monday to everybody listening.
1:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it was fun weekend.
1:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I hope everybody enjoyed it.
1:41
[SPEAKER_01]: We had an awesome show on Friday with everybody.
1:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you actually didn't check that out, it's going to be the latest post on the feed in the podcast channel and also for YouTube.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Make sure you go back and check it out.
1:55
[SPEAKER_01]: It was really cool to have Rohit and Brian and you together all in one and the numbers are doing great.
2:03
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the most watch things we've ever produced on our YouTube.
2:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're not going to miss out.
2:06
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of that was actually really cool in the sense that we talked about kind of on a macro level, but like a zoom out, like a bull market level and row he gave us the cycle we were talking about like the cycle.
2:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Where are we in the cycle?
2:19
[SPEAKER_01]: How to read cycles?
2:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously did the deep dive with Brian and memes, and then you gave us a lot of technical analysis.
2:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I think it's cool to follow up with today's episode.
2:27
[SPEAKER_01]: again kind of more more in the moment of the price actions so it's good to be with you here and yeah a lot going on this week in the crypto markets and on the macro level so we're going to cover it all for you yeah yes we are
2:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I think one of the things that we should just jump right into is just like what's happening with the price action here.
2:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Because that's where I think a lot of people are concerned with, like, why are prices falling so much?
2:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And, uh, correct me from wrong YouTube, but I'm like, ninety nine percent sure we covered this last week where we were saying, hey, we're pushing in the all time high resistance levels.
3:02
[SPEAKER_00]: We said that there was all time high resistance on Bitcoin, on Ethereum, on a lot of these leading all.
3:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the total to the total three.
3:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're like, we looked at these charts.
3:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And we said, like, hey, there's some like decent resistance up here to actually pay attention to.
3:17
[SPEAKER_00]: But in the short term, you know, maybe that's a little bit of a pain.
3:21
[SPEAKER_00]: We call it the slip dip in a rip.
3:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And the long term, this is just another accumulation opportunity.
3:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's the way that I view it.
3:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So what I'm going to do here is I'm going to throw up the charts for us.
3:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So we can actually take a look at what is going on here in crypto.
3:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And a friendly reminder here is that if you're tuning in for anywhere that's not YouTube, make sure you go over to our YouTube channel.
3:41
[SPEAKER_00]: That is where you're going to see all the charts that we're talking about, all of the news articles, all the different data points, like anything that we're going to be referencing, is going to be on screen on YouTube.
3:52
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're coming from Spotify, Apple Podcast, audible anywhere else, check us out.
3:56
[SPEAKER_00]: We got lots of bonus content going up there as well, completely for free.
4:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, as we get into this here over on Bitcoin, this is what we look for.
4:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, a little bit of a pretty sizable retracement, starting on Thursday.
4:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, on Thursday, we hit the new all-time high and then we retraced pretty sharply after the PPI numbers came out.
4:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Then on Friday,
4:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Same kind of thing, continuation to the downside, nothing too crazy.
4:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We consolidated over the weekend, now we're seeing a continuation to the downside here on Monday at the time of recording this.
4:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So far, I mean, we've retraced about seven percent since last Thursday and a decent little retracement on Bitcoin.
4:41
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we know that it is historically more volatile than it
4:45
[SPEAKER_00]: then I would say the average, uh, triad by asset.
4:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not anything too crazy.
4:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's actually pretty common for us to see retracements of like, ten to twenty percent and we're not even at that market.
4:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think as we come back down towards the hundred and ten, hundred and fifteen K level, I think that then we start kicking in the some support levels.
5:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I think then we start finding, uh, a much more reasonable area at the bottom.
5:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's really what we're seeing right now.
5:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So one of the big takeaways that I have here is that, you know, we found support at our previous highs last time right around the hundred and twelve k. That's where we solar cells bounce right around here.
5:23
[SPEAKER_00]: All that I'm looking for now is can we hold this level or preferably have a higher low off of this level somewhere above a hundred and twelve k. And that's really the ideal kind of look as we as we look into the future here is like we want to see a higher low above
5:39
[SPEAKER_00]: A hundred and twelve thousand dollars on Bitcoin.
5:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So is this anything too horrible or scary?
5:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I know we don't like retracement.
5:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna say no.
5:47
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we look at what's happened here in the crypto market so far.
5:50
[SPEAKER_00]: We have ups.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: We have downs.
5:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a natural part of any uptrend.
5:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can go all the way back to twenty twenty two here.
5:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can see that this has just been the natural cycle.
6:00
[SPEAKER_00]: We have higher highs, higher lows.
6:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And we kind of just continue to the upside.
6:05
[SPEAKER_00]: even during periods of big retracement.
6:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And we've had a couple of these, where you know, bitcoins retraced, twenty something percent there, retraced, thirty something percent here.
6:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Another thirty something percent here.
6:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It's natural.
6:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It happens.
6:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not the end of the world.
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes, you know, we even break below the two-ingered-day moving average, like here, here, and here.
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And guess what?
6:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We still resolve higher.
6:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So my main picture that I'm trying to paint here is like, hey, zoom out.
6:31
[SPEAKER_00]: We always like to say this.
6:33
[SPEAKER_00]: When in doubt, zoom out.
6:35
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason for this is because the up trend is still much, you know, very much in effect.
6:41
[SPEAKER_00]: The trend here to the upside is still very much your friend.
6:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So as we push down into either A, this previous consolidation area, the top half of this, or B, you know, our prior highs, I'm okay adding the Bitcoin down here.
6:54
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I'm gonna do.
6:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to be adding to some of my longer term positions, and I'm kind of taking the stance that, hey, there's no evidence that the top is in here yet.
7:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And all that this looks like to me is another pullback and we see these, you know, it feels like every couple months.
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So not the end of the world to you, but I know people are quite upset about it, but
7:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, nothing, nothing too toxic.
7:20
[SPEAKER_01]: No, you've been, you've been on point.
7:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we do this, you know, every week, sometimes multiple times a week, right?
7:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, you always kind of say, like, hey, this is the, this is kind of the resistance point.
7:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We could see this, we could see this.
7:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We even kind of saw like maybe at four thousand you called it, right?
7:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Like we had four thousand, you're like, hey, this is kind of a resistance point.
7:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
7:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And we showed that.
7:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And then obviously the crypto bag will give us the strength to break through that.
7:44
[SPEAKER_01]: But, um,
7:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it's like it's all something that if you're watching, if you're watching this weekly, that's kind of the pitch, right?
7:52
[SPEAKER_01]: You're getting alpha here weekly, but then also just to shout out you and what you do, you know, besides this show is your trading course.
7:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, if anybody's interested in learning more to join Brendan's trading course where you get to do this with him, take his course and then do this with him live twice a week for an hour.
8:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Check the links below.
8:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I put him down there for you and you can sign up and get more information on that.
8:14
[SPEAKER_01]: But overall, I think definitely Ethereum is we've talked about this taken center stage a lot.
8:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guess I didn't know if you wanted to cover anything else before we move on to kind of that that stat that Ethereum's had the best Q three ever.
8:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I think real quick before we get into that.
8:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, let's just look at the Ethereum chart a little bit more closely because, you know, you made a good point like we broke four K and we were keeping an eye on that and then we came up like literally to the TT though.
8:44
[SPEAKER_00]: We came up and we tapped the all time high here.
8:47
[SPEAKER_00]: and we came over, we tapped it, and then we rejected it.
8:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And we kind of saw, as we said, Bitcoin at all time high resistance, Ethereum at all time high resistance, as you can see here, the total three tapping the all time high resistance, as we can, you know, erase this line, as we can kind of raise over here.
9:04
[SPEAKER_00]: This tapping all time high resistance, the total three, which is another one, getting really, really close to all time high resistance levels.
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And so just across the board, you can look at like a lot of other leading altcoins.
9:16
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, XRP tat new altime highs, saw some resistance up there.
9:20
[SPEAKER_00]: B and B was a similar story, tapping all time high resistance, having struggles up there.
9:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of these leading altcoins were just at critical levels of altime high resistance.
9:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And sometimes, you know, it acts exactly how it sounds.
9:35
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, resistance is resistance.
9:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, sometimes we hit it.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't break through.
9:39
[SPEAKER_00]: We pull back a little bit.
9:40
[SPEAKER_00]: The bulls collect their strength.
9:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they have the opportunity after accumulating lower to push price back through the upside.
9:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're seeing that everywhere.
9:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, especially with Ethereum, and I'll kind of let you lead us back into that same point to you, though.
9:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we hit that level.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: We pull back.
9:58
[SPEAKER_00]: We collect more strength.
10:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what we're seeing as we kind of consolidate back towards the low end to four thousand.
10:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I would imagine the buyers start coming back in down here.
10:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
10:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, we're going to obviously with all the treasury companies in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
10:14
[SPEAKER_01]: We have some new stats on that that we'll share after this Q three stat.
10:18
[SPEAKER_01]: But the constant buying pressure pressures there from a lot of different angles.
10:24
[SPEAKER_01]: But I thought a cool thing, so this was floating around on X, so anything on X, you know, I'm bringing to you guys and whatever crypto Twitter or the crypto spheres talking about.
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: So Ethereum just finished the best Q-three ever.
10:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So let me try to see if I can make this little bigger.
10:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what a Q-three, eighty five percent, the best Q-three ever.
10:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously in the early days, you know, the two thousand seventeen, you know, those, you know, five hundred four hundred percent, that's absolutely insane.
10:51
[SPEAKER_01]: More recently in the, you know, twenty twenty twenty one.
10:53
[SPEAKER_01]: You've to have seen a hundred to a hundred sixty percent quarters, which is super exciting.
10:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think I think more importantly here.
11:01
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like looking at Q four obviously the averages averages can kind of be skewed depending on if you have, you know, huge outliers.
11:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the most interesting thing on this one is the median.
11:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So the median is telling you here that normally, you know, Q four is overall the most bullish month.
11:16
[SPEAKER_01]: for Ethereum.
11:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So, again, just to stat, I wouldn't say this is the one thing that you're doing to go all in on Ethereum, probably not the right move, and as always, this isn't personal financial advice for anybody, just a couple of guys talking crypto, but I think the table, the table is set, and I think that's kind of where the conversation's been for Ethereum.
11:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, that with the narrative takeover and I loved our conversation the other day of kind of that narrative talk of Solana kind of verse the theorem and we we touched on that last week, but um, I don't know.
11:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I always find it fun when these stats pop up and it kind of like it kind of brings you that again zoom out.
11:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So go, man, look at the history of this while that was that was a wild ride.
11:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, when you're in it and you're trading it and you're riding the highs of it, like it definitely feels awesome.
12:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think these are the kind of stats you need to kind of stay grounded and stay level and kind of engulf yourself in the research.
12:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, a hundred percent.
12:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, a lot of people are looking for a Santa Claus rally, historically August isn't the best month for the crypto markets.
12:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're kind of living up to that name right now, where, you know, August has historically like one of the, I believe it's one of the worst months.
12:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And that fades us into August September, and then you start looking at the numbers for October and November December, and they look a whole lot better.
12:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So typically, the outlook that I've had, and I think a lot of traders or investors have had, is that they say, okay, we're sacrificing August in parts of September to have a really hard push for the end of the year.
12:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's typically the way that it works out.
12:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, not always, you know, sometimes we have just fantastic cycle.
12:55
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of the time, kind of the way that it's looked at is like, all right, we sacrifice a little bit of August September, we get some red, we get the flush outs in here.
13:03
[SPEAKER_00]: One thing or another ends up happening, you know, whether it's fundamental or technical, and then that usually presents the dip buying opportunity for continuation to the upside.
13:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't see this being any different so far and who knows, you know, maybe some crazy event happens.
13:20
[SPEAKER_00]: That could be unforeseen, but
13:22
[SPEAKER_00]: right now, I think we're just according to plan and we're already seeing you know, speaking of accumulation here.
13:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we're already seeing a lot of different people and treasuries and people just all over the place looking to accumulate more to you though.
13:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the consistent buying it's something that we've obviously followed on the show and in the crypto space, it's kind of that again, one of the new narratives here, but surprise, not a surprise is Michael Saylor buys more Bitcoin.
13:50
[SPEAKER_01]: You put on my radar met a planet again, they're going to go buy some more Bitcoin for about a hundred million dollars and then we also have
13:59
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a newer one for the Bitcoin treasury companies is an international one.
14:04
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is that of the Netherlands.
14:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Amdax is plans to launch a Bitcoin treasury company on the Dutch Stock Exchange.
14:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, this is the type of things that you see when there's a strategy that's working.
14:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously, Michael Sailor is kind of the godfather of the Bitcoin treasury strategy.
14:20
[SPEAKER_01]: But when you start to kind of see this type of stuff, I don't know it's an adoption and we've seen it in the US stock market, but I think it is interesting and kind of important to see it kind of go international as well because once you start getting that worldwide adopted adoption and we've talked about how we're keeping tabs on the United States and kind of that US crypto stockpile and how Scott Besson got a lot of pushback after saying that we're not buying Bitcoin and then he had to do a
14:49
[SPEAKER_01]: clarify that with a tweet that we are looking into a budget neutral ways to acquire it.
14:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's just so much momentum here.
14:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're going to start seeing a lot of this out of the woodwork.
14:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously there's been different altcoin treasury companies that are popping up on a much, much smaller scale.
15:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's news that you got to take in and you got to parse through.
15:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And then of course, the biggest, the newest, the way of them all, Tom Lee continues to accumulate a theorem as well.
15:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they're goal.
15:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Their goal was a five percent of the total Ethereum supply, and it seems as though Bitcoin and very short order has gotten to one percent.
15:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So that would be one fifth of the way there, and they got there quite quickly.
15:32
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, this is all stuff that we've mentioned on the show before.
15:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I know it gets a little repetitive, but when these whales are buying, and they continue to buy, and that continuous buying pressure is there,
15:43
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to bring that into the equation when you do see these dips because there is that constant buying pressure that's there.
15:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's interesting to kind of bring it up, talk about and kind of weigh it with with everything else that you're seeing in the price action.
15:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it is.
15:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And like, listen, I think if anything on these dips, we're going to see an acceleration of these different whales and treasury companies and reserves and all the stuff.
16:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're going to see an increase or an acceleration of them accumulating more because
16:14
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, they're generally pretty smart about when they like to buy.
16:17
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, sometimes it's a little trolley with what strategy does, right?
16:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes they do buy the top.
16:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's kind of their whole thing is like, listen, we're going to buy the top now, but you know, you give it us enough time and it's going to be the bottom of the decks run.
16:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think when we're looking at this now, you know, they have a doubt to say, okay, let's actually wait for a pullback.
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we're going to start rapidly accumulating.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what I think we're going to see right now is just a ramp up of accumulation over here.
16:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So listen, we're going to dip its normal.
16:49
[SPEAKER_00]: It happens.
16:49
[SPEAKER_00]: But now I think what we're going to see is a little bit of scaling into some more heavier accumulation from these guys.
16:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And listen, they also, they have these goals, right?
16:59
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, a bit mindset, we want to get five percent of Ethereum and so on and so forth.
17:04
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no better opportunity to do that.
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: then on a dip because now you're paying less than you would have previously and you're getting a little bit of a discount.
17:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's again kind of just feeding into my narrative of I think work just still in a very much just like a by the dip market and I don't see that going away.
17:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And because on top of the buying pressure from these treasury companies is also the ETF data is coming in and it still looks super, super strong.
17:34
[SPEAKER_01]: And so clearly your bitmines with Ethereum and Sailor with Bitcoin, they're not buying the ETFs, they're buying spot.
17:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So when you pair that with the ETF data,
17:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, that's, you know, a lot of retail investors and a lot of probably huge hedge fund managers that are going in and being like, okay, do we want to buy a Bitcoin?
17:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Do we want to buy Ethereum?
17:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Do we want to buy the ETFs?
17:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And probably some of them are doing some type of arbitrage around.
18:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe all three or maybe some, you know, some of these funds probably aren't even allowed to hold pure cryptocurrency.
18:08
[SPEAKER_01]: So they have to do the ETF.
18:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So they, they, you know, if they want the alpha, they have to do a bit mine because they can't go trade leverage to the theorem.
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not, you know, in their rulebook, it's not cleared.
18:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're starting to see, you know, the Ethereum ETF definitely lagged for a big time.
18:23
[SPEAKER_01]: and I know recently we've covered a lot of data around how the inflows there have been insane with keeping up with and sometimes even outpacing Bitcoin.
18:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it is.
18:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And like, now what we're seeing, and I think we talked about this before, but like, we had a billion dollar inflow day for Ethereum last month.
18:41
[SPEAKER_00]: We also had the largest amount of monthly inflows.
18:46
[SPEAKER_00]: The ETFs are crushing in this and we've, I don't want to be a dead horse, right?
18:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody wants it, right?
18:50
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the point I'm trying to make.
18:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Now what we're seeing is like, again, that's not slowing down.
18:54
[SPEAKER_00]: The data's still really good.
18:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Now what we're seeing is people are just coping.
18:58
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people miss the boat.
19:00
[SPEAKER_00]: They sold earlier.
19:01
[SPEAKER_00]: They gave up on Bitcoin.
19:02
[SPEAKER_00]: They gave up on Ethereum.
19:04
[SPEAKER_00]: They gave up on all these different, you know, cryptos that are out there.
19:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Now we're pushing back to the highs.
19:08
[SPEAKER_00]: We tap the highs on many of these.
19:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And people are just coping hard because they know that they missed out the salt at the wrong times.
19:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And now they're regretting that decision.
19:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So if we go over to that other
19:23
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... short t-bone sorry oh yeah you already got to pull up i mean here it is you know speculators have now built the largest leverage the theory of short positions in history and this is just people again they're just upset i don't think in the reason why i say that they're coping their upset
19:42
[SPEAKER_00]: is because Ethereum didn't tap the all-time high yet we're substantially at the largest place that we've ever been like way higher than stuff that we saw back in twenty twenty twenty twenty twenty twenty twenty four all the stuff and now that we're just below the all-time high people are loading up their coping their hoping for another one to kind of bring us back down so they can get back in they missed our opportunity they know it
20:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And to those people, I'm saying, I'm sorry, I think a lot of them are gonna get racked.
20:10
[SPEAKER_00]: We've made multiple different videos we've talked about it, and I know we have especially internally, like all these millions and billions of dollars of Ethereum short positions getting liquidated and racked and whacked.
20:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're gonna make more videos like that.
20:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of these people are stacking shorts.
20:27
[SPEAKER_00]: They are going to get
20:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if it's over confident or what because now there's finally a pullback, but there's people that are seeing the first sign of a pullback and they're like degenerately loading short positions against Ethereum against the trend here and I just don't see a world where it works out for them.
20:45
[SPEAKER_00]: They're fighting the institutional side.
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: They're fighting the governments.
20:50
[SPEAKER_00]: They're fighting the big banks.
20:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They're fighting the treasury companies.
20:54
[SPEAKER_00]: like they are fighting like all the people who have all of the money, right?
20:57
[SPEAKER_00]: They're fighting at this point in Wall Street, all the big banks.
21:00
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to win against JP Morgan.
21:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to win against Larry Fink.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to win against fidelity who have been stacking.
21:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you think that like you are, I think it's just a little bit delusional.
21:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So unless these are short like day trading shorts, I don't see it as a good idea.
21:16
[SPEAKER_00]: They made their accumulation plan clear.
21:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I don't see it stopping anytime soon.
21:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not saying that Ethereum is going to be ten thousand dollars by the end of this month or next month or something like that.
21:30
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that, you know, given the future here, maybe pushing in the next twelve months, I think that we, we hit new all-time highs, we push through a lot of this.
21:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we could see ten can in the next twelve months.
21:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of these positions are racked.
21:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
21:45
[SPEAKER_00]: What I don't want from this is for people to say, oh my gosh, everyone's shorting Ethereum.
21:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Is this the move now?
21:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Should I have sold?
21:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say now.
21:54
[SPEAKER_00]: At least not the way that I look at it, right?
21:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Not financial advice in any way.
21:58
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think we're going to come back to this.
22:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe we clip this TV out because I think we're going to come back to this at a future point.
22:04
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to have a big old liquidation headline on Ethereum.
22:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're going to look back to this little rant that I had.
22:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll see.
22:14
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see.
22:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's always fun when you get those stats of, you know, X amount of shorts liquidated in the past, you know, thirty minutes or hour.
22:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And then yeah, there's probably a certain price point here on Ethereum, you know, probably just above new all-time highs where these guys start to get liquidated and they have to flip it.
22:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's an interesting thing to watch.
22:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I couldn't agree more that, you know, when you're betting against people like, you know, the big boys fidelity and, you know, even JP Morgan's getting on board with tokenization and figuring out a crypto strategy and then obviously Larry think
22:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't really want to be on the other side of the boat of those guys, especially in the long term, so it's something that we like to target and bring you guys these these type of fun nuggets and like you said, we'll we'll keep it on tab and see what happens here in the next couple weeks and months.
23:03
[SPEAKER_01]: But speaking of Larry Fink, quite interesting news that came out about him over the weekend and speaking of not wanting to bet against Larry Fink, because he's the CEO of BlackRock, about not betting against Larry Fink because he's now the co-chair of the World Economic Forum.
23:22
[SPEAKER_01]: it was appointed as an interim in term position sometimes in this type of political space in term is just for obviously a short term and they find somebody new and there's more of a process to find the you know the more permanent replacement and then sometimes in term is kind of short for let's see how the the world and and
23:44
[SPEAKER_01]: people react to this news but it's really it's really the long-term play is like all right we'll say is in term and then he's gonna be uh you know the official co-chair uh i don't know how that affects his uh being the CEO of of black rock if he's allowed to even be full-time co-chair but um again there's a lot of
24:03
[SPEAKER_01]: What's that?
24:03
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of power.
24:04
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of power.
24:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's a lot of interesting, you know, thoughts around probably the world economic form in general.
24:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I know a lot of stuff comes out in the internet around that.
24:13
[SPEAKER_01]: You could dive into some some fun.
24:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Conspiracy holes.
24:17
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if you want to wrap your head in some tin foil and go down that rabbit hole, but
24:21
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just like you said, it's about power, right?
24:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And these people that have these egregious egregious power, and you can agree with liking it or disliking it, that's not the point.
24:31
[SPEAKER_01]: The point is that the people that have this power make decisions, and those decisions affect us all, and now this guy is on the chair of the world, economic forum, and he's just started the world's largest
24:44
[SPEAKER_01]: in my mind the world along with sailor the world's largest like by bitcoin by a theorem campaign via you know him kind of and black rock being the leaders of of the uh... bitcoin and our theorem kind of ETF push you know the black rock is is basically going from as we've just showed you on the show of saying hey like
25:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Crypto's bad, don't buy it.
25:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It's criminals and all that stuff to now.
25:08
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy at BlackRock is now sitting down.
25:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Our parents, our grandparents, all these people, they manage their fun and explain to them why now Bitcoin is good and you can trust it because we have our ETF and the vehicle and they're the leading parts of the education.
25:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, it's to get more assets under management so they can make money.
25:26
[SPEAKER_01]: But it doesn't matter, it's all an accumulation to go by, you know, more Bitcoin via these vehicles that he's pushing.
25:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think the fact that he's on the world, economic form isn't something that we can ignore.
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think?
25:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And no, I mean, I think you can't ignore it.
25:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And just back up what we were saying is like, look at who you're fighting against now.
25:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Retail once it, thanks one at the government once it.
25:49
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a few odd balls out that are like outside of that circle that are still like, no, no, no.
25:55
[SPEAKER_00]: we all have that one friend or that one like uncle or something that's like guys no one except me knows what they're talking about Bitcoin and crypto it's going to zero because I believe that it's a scam in this and that and it's like all right dude well you know you're pretty much the minority at this point
26:14
[SPEAKER_00]: You can fight retail.
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: You can fight the government.
26:16
[SPEAKER_00]: You can fight the banks.
26:18
[SPEAKER_00]: You're at war against everyone, right?
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone wants to use this.
26:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Even the institutions are saying, hey, we're looking at tokenization.
26:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw something that it was an article over the weekend talking about how I think down the S&P five hundred are looking to use tokenization as well.
26:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like, all right, so are you going to fight?
26:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Are you just going to fight like a one v nine where you're just against everyone?
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're trying to hold out because you're like, you know, I don't know.
26:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to read too much about it, but we all have that one brand who's like trust me guys.
26:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I know best.
26:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all a scam.
26:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I've called it since the beginning.
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And then every crash that I see, I called it.
26:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we go to all-time highs after that.
26:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're like, I'm calling it again.
26:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm calling it again.
26:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, well, dude, look at all the gains that you've missed out on in the meantime.
27:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And you have it.
27:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you have it here on the screen.
27:03
[SPEAKER_00]: SNP, five hundred and Dow Jones are in talks about launching tokenized indexes.
27:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is really coming after we've seen a big push from this.
27:11
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen other different like exchanges and brokerages and financial companies with Robinhood really leading the way on this.
27:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And then all these other ones saying, well, they're going to do it to their clients.
27:22
[SPEAKER_00]: We can't miss out on that market share.
27:24
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to lose customers.
27:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to use
27:27
[SPEAKER_00]: clients and all these other things.
27:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So now we're going to have to do it as well.
27:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's kind of a little bit of a frenzy now where everyone wants to have these tokenized assets in some capacity.
27:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And the way that this looks in maybe several years from now is at face value.
27:43
[SPEAKER_00]: It gives anyone the ability to trade these assets, whether in the United States, Europe, Asia doesn't matter.
27:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone can trade different kinds of equities.
27:52
[SPEAKER_00]: and cryptos.
27:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And on the road, it's, I think, going to get more complex where we can trade publicly traded companies, cryptos, privately traded companies, different large market cap illiquid assets, maybe houses and real estate and stuff like that.
28:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, hopefully you even have a twenty four seven market where anything and everything never closes much like the crypto market.
28:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's kind of the big picture in the big goal here.
28:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's all being sponsored by or rather built on top of Ethereum.
28:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we're seeing some of this stuff happen on Solonatee.
28:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But crypto blockchain is the big takeaway here that's making all of this possible.
28:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a hard, it's a hard train to fight.
28:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's exactly kind of what I titled, like the tokenization momentum continues.
28:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, you know what I really reminds me of.
28:46
[SPEAKER_01]: This is actually a personal experience of mine when I my first job at a college I've told this on the show before was IBM and that's how you know met a bunch of tech people and they taught me about Bitcoin.
28:54
[SPEAKER_01]: This is back in twenty, you know, sixteen seventeen and I worked in the Watson unit.
28:59
[SPEAKER_01]: It was called IBM Watson.
29:01
[SPEAKER_01]: It was the AI unit of IBM that they were building and launching
29:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And the more I learned, got in there, and it was the early stages of AI with large language models.
29:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Not the early stages of AI, but it was like the early stages of consumer B to B AI.
29:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And kind of what I learned through that experience was it really wasn't ready yet.
29:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the tech really wasn't there for these consumer B to B type platforms.
29:24
[SPEAKER_01]: But we were trying to sell it and trying to build it along the way, right?
29:28
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what businesses do.
29:29
[SPEAKER_01]: They sell the product and then
29:30
[SPEAKER_01]: They're getting revenue to build and keep making it better.
29:33
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was a little early.
29:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So like IBM Watson, you know, the huge, the marketing push was kind of a little bit better than the actual product itself was what I learned kind of during my time there.
29:43
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was, but it was, it was just a little head of its time.
29:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not, it wasn't wrong.
29:47
[SPEAKER_01]: You're just like a little early on sense of the, you know, a baked of the tech.
29:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And I kind of wonder what's going to happen with tokenization.
29:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I bring up that story because I wonder,
29:56
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, now that Robin Hood's kind of like, hey, I think we have the technology to go ahead and do this and they announce it.
30:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And now we're seeing everybody else start talking about it.
30:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, talking to say we're doing tokenization.
30:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We're doing tokenization.
30:07
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like it's a really interesting to see, you know, because I think the crypto technologies there to start definitely making these things happen.
30:14
[SPEAKER_01]: But all these companies and yet you know again the S&P and the Dow and all these other big banks like now they have to throw out this like oh we're looking into tokenization but do they have the teams and the structure to actually put it together and do it the right way and I think that's going to be an interesting thing to kind of track on is like who actually gets this done the right way and can actually bring this to market.
30:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And listen, like, I'm gonna be, honestly, I'm biased here.
30:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I have exposure in a Robinhood account.
30:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I've got exposure Robinson talking.
30:41
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do, like, firmly believe.
30:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, they're gonna be one of the people to do this the right way.
30:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I've been building it for a while, right?
30:47
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the thing.
30:48
[SPEAKER_01]: They've been actually working on it under the hood, where there's a lot of the other guys who are just kind of doing the buzzwords thing, right?
30:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah.
30:54
[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's organization that stocks for sure, for sure.
30:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no.
30:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It's such a good way to put it.
30:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It's people who are just using the buzzword.
31:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but just to wrap up, I thought this was from our friend Ryan over at Bitwise, because I was the tokenizations moving forward.
31:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the Bitcoin ETFs, the Ethereum ETFs, and the fact that Larry think is on the new world, you know, not new world art.
31:16
[SPEAKER_01]: New world economic forum.
31:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Whoa.
31:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Whoa, hey, too much tinfoil hat talk for one day.
31:21
[SPEAKER_01]: But I was like, I think this is a big deal.
31:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, kind of debating him, man.
31:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, is this a nothing burger?
31:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this a big deal?
31:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And he kind of summarized exactly what I was thinking and what we said on the show.
31:32
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, OK, the CEO of the world's largest asset manager has the world's largest Bitcoin ETF.
31:37
[SPEAKER_01]: The world's largest Ethereum ETF and it says every asset in the world will be tokenized has been appointed as the in term code, you know, co-chair of the world.
31:45
[SPEAKER_01]: He can't afford them.
31:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I personally don't think it's a nothing burger.
31:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, as again, there's just every time we sign on to do one of these like, yeah, there's just some some tidbit of news that's worth talking about.
31:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, we're talking about the world's largest asset manager saying we're going to tokenize everything.
32:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, over ten trillion dollars in assets under management and they're coming on.
32:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They're just saying it and they're like, hey, everything's not something's not some sectors.
32:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything's going to be tokenized.
32:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, take it for what you will.
32:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to take it a little bit more literally.
32:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And time will tell.
32:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and the momentum continues in the crypto IPO market.
32:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I know this was something that's kind of been hitting the news wire and we've talked about it, but it was like unofficial and now it is official that Gemini files on the registration with the SEC.
32:40
[SPEAKER_01]: It's out in the open.
32:40
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be going and looking for the ticker symbol, Gemmy, JEMI.
32:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Congrats to the Winkle Boss twins.
32:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Congrats to the Gemini team and actually sponsors of the pod right now.
32:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So we appreciate the the sponsorship and definitely something to follow.
32:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I think with with bullish, the launch of bullish last week, which was super crazy.
33:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, circle like the momentum's there and just in general, the momentum for the IPO market and in Tradfice pretty hot right now.
33:10
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm sure I'm sure this one will have will have a lot of momentum behind it.
33:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And it'll be interesting to see where it gets priced.
33:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
33:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And we talked about this before, right?
33:18
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about a Gemini is looking to do this.
33:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like a pretty high likelihood.
33:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was a couple of names that we talked about.
33:24
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we talked about circle.
33:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about I think bullish at some point.
33:28
[SPEAKER_00]: We were I've mentioned it at some point.
33:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't remember where.
33:31
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about Gemini and then there was one other one that we talked about and it was Kraken and so far they're the last one that's been like on this alert list Where they haven't officially announced yet, but it still looks pretty likely in my opinion, you know, maybe that's something that we'll see I think next year But I do see a world where Kraken's gonna IPO and
33:55
[SPEAKER_00]: That's an exciting one because I use their exchange and I saw Ryan Boilin in the chat.
33:59
[SPEAKER_00]: The reoccurring member, we love to see him and the chat's been popping today from a lot of people.
34:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So just a quick little shout out to Ryan and Tim and everyone else that's been in the chat.
34:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw that we had Vladah and a lot of other people.
34:12
[SPEAKER_00]: We see you all in the chat.
34:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We appreciate your comments.
34:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Matt, are you mad?
34:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Matt, that was your early today.
34:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Matt, yeah.
34:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, just people everywhere and a lot of other listeners as well, but
34:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, I think that, you know, we could see more of these and I hope that we do and so far it's been exciting because I use a lot of these.
34:29
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we talked about cracking and cooling base and Robinhood and you know, certain people like different ones and like that's perfectly okay.
34:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Like personally, I have, you know, I live breathe, eat, sleep this stuff.
34:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So I have accounts on all of them and I use all of them.
34:44
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's perfectly okay to have favorites in this kind of thing.
34:47
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Coinbase is I think a much superior exchange when it comes to specifically crypto.
34:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And then Kraken's another competitor, or I think Kraken even gets a little bit more advanced than Coinbase does.
35:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I kind of see like a tier system where like Coinbase is probably the best overall crypto exchange.
35:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Kraken is a little bit of a more advanced crypto exchange.
35:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think they have edges there.
35:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have Robin who watches
35:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Robin Hood, which is like the very basic entry level.
35:14
[SPEAKER_00]: You're coming in here.
35:15
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need access to everything.
35:16
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need these complex order types.
35:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need all these different options in all coins.
35:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And it caters to people who want a little bit of the stock market, a little bit of crypto.
35:25
[SPEAKER_00]: They want easy access to it all.
35:26
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't want it to be overcomplicated.
35:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And so there's something for everyone.
35:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, again, that kind of wrapping this full circle.
35:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I hope that we do see Kraken IPO personally.
35:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I would like it.
35:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I would like to get shares in it because I use them.
35:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the IPO could be really a really cool thing to see.
35:46
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's my bias.
35:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's just so much going on and it feels like between the price action being bullish recently and the news flow finally caught up.
35:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I felt like the news flow for a while.
35:58
[SPEAKER_01]: We obviously had, you know, some nice rips this year overall, but, you know, there's those times when we've talked about on the pod, we talked about, I said it.
36:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember that one day I was like, I can't believe I'm gonna say this.
36:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't believe I'm gonna say this.
36:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I go, I'm bored with a hundred K Bitcoin.
36:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's just how, that's just human nature, right?
36:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It's human nature.
36:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Honestly, it's a mix of greed.
36:19
[SPEAKER_01]: but you know the people people want price action so even though sometimes the price action gets stagnant or like right now you're dealing with you know you bump up against those all-time highs and we've tested them before and you know retrace and sometimes retrace aggressively especially in the all-coins and people just get worn out the what's that where you out trade that price talks about all the time right they're gonna wear you out they're gonna try where you out
36:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And when when you're getting where it out or you're getting bored or you're seeing the price action that you don't think agrees with kind of the sentiment this is what this shows all about right and that's why we try to bring you the good news flow and Yeah, we just love our fan, but if you're listening right now and you in your new we welcome you get involved in the chat
36:57
[SPEAKER_01]: on YouTube on the bottom right you'll see our logo please click it please subscribe and if you've been watching this video for you know the last thirty minutes give us a like every little bit helps to to kind of keep making keep making this stuff and making it for free and giving it out to you guys we've got one more one more topic and funny enough that we talked about the chat because this is what the chat's been talking about Matt
37:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Ryan, they were kind of talking about interest rates right in Jackson Hole and this is going to be an injury cut and so it's it's a big week.
37:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think we can set the stage and we tell everybody, you know, hop in get in fam or go into Jackson Hole.
37:32
[SPEAKER_01]: So Jackson Hole is, I guess there was a little maybe confusion in the chat of what Jackson Hole was, Ryan said there's gonna be a rate cut.
37:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So Jackson Hole isn't an actual fed meeting.
37:41
[SPEAKER_01]: What we're used to on those Wednesday, I believe everyone Wednesday is when pal decides to set the rate cut and has his press conference that moves the markets a lot.
37:51
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not what this is.
37:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So Jackson Hole's actually kind of just a form.
37:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's actually an international event.
37:57
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of leaders, a lot of economic leaders from around the world.
38:00
[SPEAKER_01]: will be there and they're discussing policy and obviously you know Fed share power being in the US is the leader of that and so a lot of times it's a nothing burger and it's a kind of a macro event
38:12
[SPEAKER_01]: where they just kind of talk, okay, the US is doing this and Germany's doing that and you know, Europe's doing this and and Asian all that stuff.
38:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of times it's it's not but there has been a precedent set before where if there's going to be a big move, and this was on the last time we rose rates, it was the rate hiking cycle that ended the last big tech.
38:33
[SPEAKER_01]: bull market drone pal announced at Jackson Hole and kind of forecasted it's not announced I guess that's not the right word because an announcement is official but he he forecast and he's always done you know like him or dislike him he does do a good job at communicating in his press conferences and so people are wondering again sometimes it's a nothing burger this is going to be on Friday where he speaks at Jackson Hole so we're kind of all eyes are on Friday to see what comes out from his speech
39:00
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's he going to, you know, again, just talking general from the macro point and not really mention anything that that's, you know, for us specifically in the US, or is he going to have some type of speech where, you know, basically he's forecasting that he sees that it is time for a rate cut at the next meeting in September.
39:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's got a hell of a get up there on the screen.
39:20
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're on YouTube, that's a fun little meme.
39:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been tossing around of, you know, combination of the Sydney Sweeney jeans commercial in Jerome Powell.
39:28
[SPEAKER_01]: But Brenner, you excited for Jackson Hall?
39:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you tuning in?
39:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And do you think this is going to be a nothing burger?
39:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Or do you think we're going to get some type of forecast here for what we're going to see in the fall?
39:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I always like Jackson Hole.
39:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I always like the tune into it.
39:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I trade everything.
39:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, with the heavy focus on crypto quite obviously.
39:47
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think it's important to pay attention to this stuff, listen in.
39:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I'll definitely be tuning in to see what they have to say.
39:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes it kind of turns out to be a nothing burger.
39:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But other times, it can be pretty helpful and pretty useful.
40:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, pretty useful.
40:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So, let's see people calling for an emergency rate cut decision happening at Jackson Hole.
40:05
[SPEAKER_01]: No.
40:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's let's be realistic here.
40:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I've already seen it all over X this morning and stuff and on social media because like we are pulling back this morning and PPI and I just don't see that happening.
40:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to temper everyone's expectations and say he's going to give us some great information.
40:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they'll likely hood up high.
40:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm him giving us an emergency right cut in Jackson Hole is like less than one percent.
40:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah.
40:33
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Tim, Tim threw in the chat there.
40:35
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got Tim, so Tim said, Polymark, it's a good source.
40:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, calcium, all those bedding websites, even Robin Hood has the bedding markets now.
40:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So you can go check and see, like, hey, rate decision in the fall, rate decision, or for September, rate decision for all the next Fed meetings.
40:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You can kind of see the odds.
40:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're somebody that likes to play that, like you said, I trade everything as well.
40:55
[SPEAKER_01]: It's more of a gamble.
40:56
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like sports betting.
40:58
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, if you wanted to play an odds of a rate cut, it's you probably want to get some action on it before Jackson Hole because, you know, there's probably going to be some type of a vibe that Paul gives out that that's going to lean, you know, one way or the other.
41:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be my guess.
41:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's going to be a pretty, again, I think we're going to get something out of it this week.
41:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's going to be a pure nothing burger.
41:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's going to be something that we want to tune into.
41:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Digest and listen to and you know, you guys know that we're going to do that for you.
41:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll probably we're going to do our another episode on Thursday.
41:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see if anything comes out of Jacksonville before then.
41:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And if not next Monday, we'll definitely break it all down for you.
41:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we're less than a month away from what will likely be the first rate cut.
41:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, hopefully we see it, you know, I think the odds right now are for twenty five basis points.
41:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd like to see fifty, but again, I'm biased because of how it would affect the crypto market.
41:54
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I mean, that brings us to an end here, everyone.
41:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, lots of stuff happening in the cool thing is that we get to come on and make these multiple times a week.
42:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And every single time we do these, there's just so much to talk about.
42:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And we love hopping on here, chatting with all of you, seeing all of your comments.
42:11
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42:17
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42:22
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42:28
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42:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you all for watching, and we'll see all of you at the same time, same place on Thursday.
42:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Take care.