Latest / The Extra Point / Week 8 Preview | Georgia-Ole Miss, Alabama-Tennessee, Notre Dame-USC, James Franklin’s Firing, and more

Transcript

Week 8 Preview | Georgia-Ole Miss, Alabama-Tennessee, Notre Dame-USC, James Franklin’s Firing, and more · The Extra Point

0:00
What's up y'all? You're listening to the Extra
0:02
Point college football podcast. I'm your host Jacob Carney
0:05
joined us always by my Co host Daniel Hammock.
0:08
Daniel, on today's episode, we're of course going to get to
0:11
our Week 8 preview. Pick four games against the
0:13
spread here at the end of the episode.
0:15
Talk about some games we're watching this weekend.
0:17
Talk about some uniform matchups we're excited to watch.
0:20
We're also here at the top going to review Week 7.
0:24
Talk about one thing we learned this week in the first part.
0:26
We were at the Kennesaw State versus Louisiana Tech game.
0:30
We'll cover that some Georgia, Auburn, maybe some officiating.
0:33
Excited to hear what you got on that, Daniel, and the two
0:35
questions we have moving forward.
0:37
We're going to talk some some coaching carousel moves
0:41
happening. Of course, James Franklin being
0:42
the biggest name being fired as well as what's going on at Penn
0:45
State, Indiana or XPR. Update a loaded episode today.
0:49
Daniel, how you doing? You're ready to dive into our
0:52
Week 8 preview. Dude, so good.
0:55
Glad to be here. It just keeps getting better and
0:58
I wish we waited one more week to do our playoff previews
1:02
because I feel like mine are already busted.
1:05
But it is what it is. You know, those graphics are out
1:08
there. Shout out Ben.
1:10
But yeah, I I've already got egg on my face after.
1:13
If I just waited one more week, I'd have probably been able to,
1:16
I don't know, I don't know, mitigate a disaster.
1:19
But we're here. We're here, though.
1:22
You're right. All right.
1:24
First quarter, one thing we learned, Daniel, what's one
1:26
thing you learned this weekend? Yeah, talking about the Deep
1:32
South soldiers rivalry, George Auburn, this game has been spun
1:35
and spun and spun through all different car wash.
1:38
You know of, of different, you know, ESPN shows and every
1:42
talking head on Twitter, everybody has made their points
1:45
about this. Everybody's got an opinion.
1:47
It is what it is, you know, OK, great.
1:49
That was, you know, was, was this a fumble?
1:52
Did it change the game? Was the officiating in fact bad?
1:56
You know, was the ball out? Is is, you know, should a time
2:03
out have been called that? It did it matter, yadda, yadda,
2:05
yadda. All these different things.
2:08
The one thing I learned is winning is more attitude and
2:11
demeanor than skills and scheme. So I, I would say that Georgia
2:17
in specifically talking about this Georgia and Auburn game,
2:20
you know, Georgia has DNA traits of composure and different
2:24
things like that. Looking at, you know, how Kirby
2:27
Smart runs his team, his organization, they preach these
2:31
things all the time. If you hear him talk and you
2:34
know any practice clips, he's talking about like are you a
2:37
hands up guy? Like are you blaming other
2:39
people or are you like head down guy like you focused like that's
2:44
that's, you know, he like keeps it keeps it really keep like you
2:48
control what you can control all of those kinds of cliches.
2:50
But he's built it so strong into the DNA of his team that like, I
2:56
mean, Jake, we've seen this team on the ropes multiple times and
2:58
they just never quit. They never quit.
3:01
They're always in the game. But you know, the Alabama game,
3:04
they got punched in the mouth. They came back, made it close,
3:07
could have and potentially should have won that game.
3:10
The Tennessee game get way down, come all the way back.
3:13
And then this Auburn game, they get down and then that seems
3:16
like everything's stacked against them.
3:18
Everything's leaning on them and then they get a break.
3:22
They get some life, they just don't flinch and they go right
3:26
down the field and they, you know, followed up with a master
3:29
class in the second-half. Conversely, going into halftime,
3:32
Hugh Freeze very much rattled. I don't blame him.
3:35
I mean, that's like a lot has happened in the last.
3:38
You know, it was a 2 minutes of the ball game.
3:40
I think took, was it 3839 minutes of real time.
3:43
That's crazy. That's insane.
3:45
That never happens. The amount of reviews that went
3:48
on, stuff that didn't seem like it needed to be reviewed was
3:52
reviewed. He had penalties.
3:54
Penalties are part of the game, especially for Auburn because
3:56
they lead the nation in penalties.
3:59
This wasn't new necessarily. It's been every week, yeah.
4:02
Yeah. So if they if I would, I would
4:04
my antenna years would be more up if it was like you know they
4:07
00100 against Georgia, they had 10 penalties.
4:11
No, they've had 10 penalties every week.
4:14
So all of that to be said, you know, it's very clear.
4:17
You hear the frustration and Hughes, he freeze his voice and
4:22
I can hear him restraining himself.
4:25
But then he kind of just lets it go and just gives into it right
4:29
there at the end of that interview, if you go back and
4:32
listen to it. And I just feel like you saw the
4:35
demeanor change. It wasn't so much even just the
4:38
first half. I like right there right before
4:41
halftime where, you know, obviously they gave up that in a
4:44
long drive from the half yard line for Georgia where they had
4:47
to go down and had the chance at a touchdown but got a field
4:50
goal. Their demeanor wasn't, I mean,
4:53
it was different, but it wasn't like we lost.
4:56
It was in the second-half when Georgia came out and went down
4:58
the field and they kind of battled around.
5:01
I just don't know, like Auburn has a championship level
5:06
defense, at least a high end defense.
5:09
And you know, usually even with a mildly competent offense, you
5:14
can turn that into a winner. It just seems like not just this
5:18
game, but other games they've let their like, I don't know if
5:21
you call it mental toughness or lack thereof, get the best of
5:25
them, but that's that's something that they could
5:28
definitely, you know, work on as an organization.
5:31
And I think that it would grow them by leaps and bounds.
5:34
That would be the strongest growth you could see.
5:36
But you just see the tale of two halves in that that game.
5:40
Yeah, look at look at one coach unfazed.
5:44
Other coach is very much frazzled.
5:46
And, you know, it ends up manifesting itself over 60
5:51
minutes. That's that's my take away from
5:53
Georgia Auburn for the Deep South Soldiers rivalry.
5:55
Yeah, officiating was bad, but not in the way you probably
5:59
heard. My thing is they lost control of
6:01
the game. And officiating bad in college
6:02
football, like really bad watch on Sundays.
6:04
And the difference is astounding.
6:06
The last two minutes, taking 38 minutes was ridiculous.
6:09
Like they lost control of the game.
6:11
That's where I'll say officiating was awful.
6:12
Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head, don't I think
6:14
Georgia takes the demeanor of their head coach.
6:17
More on that later as we pick Georgia, Ole Miss later.
6:21
Daniel, you and I were at Kennesaw State on Thursday night
6:24
to watch them take on Louisiana Tech As we stood in the field as
6:26
the teams came out, Daniel, I'm like, you know, LA Tech's kind
6:29
of the class of the, of CUSA. They, they just had bigger
6:32
bodies. And if we watched the first
6:34
drive and you know, they kind of pushed their weight on the
6:36
field, ran the ball really well. Quarterback ends up going out of
6:38
the game from that point for Daniel, Kennesaw State dominated
6:41
the game. And my one thing I learned is
6:43
that the Kennesaw State was right to move on from Brian
6:46
Bohannon and they found a legit coach and Jerry Mack, I think
6:49
that, you know, we, you graduated from KSU.
6:52
I went there for a couple years. Our buddy Hunter went to KSU.
6:55
We're we're in the KSU circle. We all questioned moving up to
6:58
FBS when they did. This is a program that was less
7:01
than a decade old when they did that.
7:03
You know, this is the, I think 11th football season for
7:05
Kennesaw State. Of course, they're a huge
7:07
university and they have the the student body to be an FBS
7:11
program, right? But didn't think they had the
7:14
athletic financial resources to be an FBS program, even at the
7:18
G6 level. And then I thought the way we
7:21
also thought, like, the way they treated Brian Bohan on the way
7:23
out wasn't good. And like, hey, don't fire the
7:25
coach because your program wasn't ready for the FBS move.
7:28
That seems kind of premature. Yep.
7:30
And Jerry Mack comes in, man. They were a 5 1/2 point underdog
7:33
at home. They dominated the game.
7:35
They won 35 to 7:00. They have two quarterbacks they
7:37
can win with. They've already doubled their
7:39
win total in 2025 and they from 2024.
7:42
They should have beaten Wake Forest if they make a field goal
7:45
in that game, you know, should have, could have, would have.
7:47
But you're you're it's a one point game against an ACC
7:50
school, a bottom tier ACC school, but an ACC school
7:53
nonetheless, an ACC school that also I think got cheated out of
7:57
a win against Georgia Tech. So SP plus ranks Daniel when
8:01
they began the season and they were 108th overall.
8:04
They're in they're 93rd now. Their offense was supposed to be
8:07
the 129th best in the country. They've now made their way into
8:10
the top 120 defense. Is a Damien Daniel a top 55
8:14
defense in FBS? Kennesaw.
8:16
State. That's crazy, that's why.
8:17
That that's what's been the strength of this team, not the
8:20
offense, but a top 55 defense. Daniel, their profile and where
8:24
they power rank they would be. Let me let me tell you some
8:27
teams they'd be favored against all right, Boston College, North
8:31
Carolina, Stanford, ACC schools. And then how about some G6
8:36
schools? App State they'd be favored
8:38
against Georgia State, Georgia Southern in state schools that
8:43
have had FBS programs for a lot longer.
8:46
So really impressed with Kennesaw State, really grateful
8:48
we got to go out and cover them on Thursday.
8:51
I just think that I was wrong in the offseason.
8:54
Jerry Matt can coach, you know, he's he's got an SEC coaching
8:57
background. He came from Tennessee as wide
9:00
receivers coach. He's brought some swagger back
9:02
to what they call it. We we, we live in Kennesaw.
9:05
Never heard anyone call it K town but apparently.
9:07
K town. K town.
9:09
You don't just come into K town. Yeah, man, that super impressed.
9:16
Yeah, that one was fun. Glad they had us out.
9:19
We're definitely going to try to be back.
9:20
Especially, dude, weeknight football.
9:23
I mean, does it get better than that?
9:24
Like, no, don't have to wait for the weekend.
9:27
It's right here around the corner.
9:29
It's awesome. A great spot to watch a football
9:31
game. And I'm glad the G6 schools are
9:33
doing this because my thing is there's there's a hundred.
9:37
What is it, 130? The numbers always changing. 136
9:40
FBS schools on Saturdays. Your casual fans are not turning
9:45
on a QC game, right? But if it's on a Wednesday,
9:49
Tuesday, Thursday night. What else you do?
9:52
And it's. Exactly.
9:54
So I'm all for these conferences doing this.
9:56
I think it's great for their exposure.
9:58
Great for the conferences. Yeah, really grateful we they
10:01
had us out. Daniel, 2 questions as we head
10:05
into Week 8. What's your first question?
10:07
I think we're going to probably talk about some similar things
10:09
here, but what's who's the next? Who's the next coach to be
10:15
fired? Who is that power for coach to
10:17
be fired? So obviously we solved, you
10:19
know, who all can, who all's out there and everything like that.
10:23
James Franklin, you're going to talk about him a little bit, but
10:26
he just got shown the door. Previously it was like, OK,
10:30
coaches will get bought out. It is what it is.
10:33
Then NIL kind of I think slowed things down a little bit with
10:37
people firing coaches with big buyouts.
10:39
But you know, ultimately Jimbo got fired because it had just
10:43
soured so badly at Texas A and it basically, I think when that
10:46
came down, it was like, all right, there is a no buyout is
10:53
too big. I guess you could say it just
10:56
has to be the right situation. So with that, I mean, I just
10:59
threw a couple names out there. Obviously building Napier is a
11:02
hot topic. A lot of times I I put you
11:04
freeze just for the sheer fact of this past weekend and you
11:07
know, it's this kind of stuff always starts to fester at
11:10
Auburn. Mike Norvell, another loss and
11:13
just not, you know, the 13 in one year is getting really far
11:17
in the rearview mirror And you know, you start lumping together
11:21
everything that before the build up for him to get to that 13 in
11:25
one year and then obviously throw in last year's
11:27
monstrosity, he's got to do some winning down the stretch to
11:31
right some wrongs at that. Napier, Napier, Norvelle might
11:36
be playing for their jobs if the everything lines up, you know,
11:40
at the end of the year, Florida versus Florida State.
11:42
So we'll see. But just curious if there's a
11:44
coach out there that, you know, Franklin wasn't even on my
11:47
radar, but I also didn't see them losing to UCLA and
11:50
Northwestern back-to-back weeks. So it is what it is.
11:54
I pulled up an article here, Daniel to to answer your
11:56
question. I think it's going to be Napier
11:58
and it could be as soon as this weekend.
12:00
Apparently Scott Strickland met with boosters today and they're
12:03
like, if if they lose, he's out, which something I've said
12:07
consistently. Other people said it too.
12:09
If you're going to fire someone and it's inevitable, like, do
12:12
you really need one result to realize that like, he's not the
12:16
best fit? Like, is losing to Mississippi
12:18
State really going to be like the you know what?
12:21
That was the result. I think this is different.
12:22
And this is going to get to my question, too.
12:24
Then like teen, you know, Georgia loses to Alabama at
12:28
home, gets whooped in Athens. And it was kind of like, OK,
12:32
like that Georgia looked in the mirror and realized Mark Rick's
12:35
never going to get it done. Like it's been 15 years now.
12:38
It's not been 15 years of building Napier.
12:40
But yeah, I think it's I think it's probably Napier is the next
12:44
coach, but I think it's going to be a crazy coaching cycle
12:48
because I mean, Hugh Freeze could I mean, if they go three
12:52
and five in SEC play, you think he's surviving another season?
12:54
They're O and three right now. So like, do we think he he's
12:58
just going to, you know, go go win 5 SEC games with their
13:02
schedule they have? I don't think so.
13:04
Yeah, I think also part of the Napier part, just to I think
13:10
also part of the hot seat is that Dan Mullen is back in
13:13
coaching and he's 6 and O and looking really good and
13:16
dominating teams. So and you start any time that
13:21
graphic comes up with like the the records, you start to see,
13:24
you know, a Dan was like 31 and 9.
13:26
I think the only one better than him was Urban Meyer.
13:29
And I think he was only one game off of Urban Meyer's pace at
13:31
that same clip. So you know, you start and then
13:36
you look at McElwain and all of those guys are just looked at
13:39
Will Muschamp, you look at all those coaches and you're like,
13:41
they were terrible. And it's like Billy Napier, it's
13:45
been worse record wise, record wise than all of them, you know.
13:48
So something to consider with Florida, I know they obviously
13:51
have the the Georgia date coming up.
13:53
And I think the reason that they're mentioning this weekend
13:56
is because it's in front of an open date.
13:58
So if you make a move, the thought for that would be like,
14:02
you know, they have two weeks to prepare organizationally what
14:05
they're going to do. But yeah, crazy.
14:09
Here's my question Daniel is, is James Franklin?
14:14
Is he Penn State's Mark Richt or Gus Malzahn?
14:19
If you're a college football fan?
14:21
Here's what I mean by that in 20, it's like as I mentioned
14:23
2015, Georgia fires Mark Richt. Daniel, I famously look we've
14:27
grown up Georgia fans. We were for the dogs I put on
14:31
Facebook to Georgia regret firing Mark Richt, a coach that
14:34
averaged ten wins, ten wins a season.
14:36
I was hurt. I was hurt, man.
14:38
I mean, look Georgia fans and still do love Mark Richt, all
14:42
right? Like good dude, Like good leader
14:44
of men. Did it the right way.
14:46
Football coach did it the right way.
14:47
Like good football coach, good football.
14:49
He raised the floor of Georgia and that was probably the
14:52
biggest thing he did, was he raised the floor from what it
14:56
had been in the 90s and and before.
14:58
So yeah. And I think as Georgia fans, you
15:01
think like, we can compete for titles, but it'd been 40 years,
15:04
you know, so they they went out and said we want to be Alabama.
15:08
And they went and hired Kirby Smart.
15:09
And we've seen what Kirby's done at Georgia.
15:11
And Georgia was right to do that.
15:12
They were right to look in the mirror and say we are better.
15:15
We can do better than Mark Richt.
15:18
Auburn did the same thing with Gus Malzahn.
15:20
They said we can compete for national championships.
15:22
We can do better than Gus. Let's fire him and move on.
15:26
And it's been abysmal, Daniel. And he could argue the same
15:29
thing with Florida since I was going to maybe maybe it's only
15:34
been one coach since Mullen, but they were competing for titles
15:38
and I think Florida can. So I think that's why I think
15:39
it's different because like Auburn, you look at the Auburn
15:42
job and like Gus Malzahn got them to a national championship
15:46
game. Yes, it was year one.
15:48
Yes, it was a special season. But like, I mean, Daniel, they
15:51
were a game away in 2017. They were a game away in 2019
15:55
from like, I mean, they played in the SEC championship in 17.
15:58
They won the West in 19. They were a game away from
16:03
playing for the SEC championship and going in the playoffs in
16:05
2019. So that's three separate seasons
16:07
where he had them in national title contention and it's been
16:11
abysmal since. So for Penn State, and I'm I'm
16:13
legit curious, if you don't have an answer, that's OK.
16:16
But I, and I don't know the answer to this is like, is he
16:19
going to be their Mark Richter, the Grassman's honor?
16:20
Are they going to look back and say, you know what, like the
16:24
Penn State job is no better than what James Franklin was doing
16:28
now? I think the difference of why do
16:29
you fire him now is like James Franklin consistently beat teams
16:34
he should and loss of teams he was supposed to lose to.
16:38
When you start losing games that you absolutely should not lose,
16:41
it's time like the team gave up and it's it's and it's, you
16:44
know, it's been a while. This was the year by a lot of
16:46
people from Penn State. My counter to that because after
16:48
this question I've thought about it is like I'm just going to go
16:53
ahead and get to my second question because it's it's it's
16:55
related here Daniel is Kurt Cignetti, the greatest coach
16:58
through 1.5 years ever in context of what's the Indiana
17:01
job and, and I'm serious about this.
17:04
I want to come back to that because Indiana legitimately
17:09
looks like a Big 10 title contender this year.
17:11
And I can't believe him saying that.
17:13
But like, so the, I guess it's in context of in this new era,
17:18
is there such a ceiling? Is there such a thing as a
17:20
ceiling on a job when like someone can go into a place like
17:25
Indiana and just shatter every ceiling you thought you had in 1
17:31
1/2 years? So it's twofold.
17:34
But the main question being like, how are we going to look
17:36
back on Franklin? Are we going to say like, you
17:39
know, five years from now, we're like, man, Penn State had a
17:41
really high floor with James Franklin.
17:43
They had it pretty good. Sure, the bottom fell out this
17:45
season after it was supposed to be the year, but like, like kind
17:49
of like Auburn's looking or is it going to be?
17:51
They were so right and they probably should have done it
17:53
sooner because they're they've they've won a championship here
17:56
in the next 5 years. Yeah, Yeah.
17:58
That's my question. I mean, as far as answering it,
18:00
you're, you're absolutely right. There's like we're going to have
18:03
to wait and see. But to speculate, I mean, you
18:06
could think like of their history, obviously Joe Paterno
18:09
with his storied history and all of that, he has his championship
18:13
in the 80s. But really a lot of just like
18:15
one of those old school coaches that just won a lot of games
18:18
over a lot of years and ran it, you know, relatively well.
18:21
And if all of the things lined up perfectly, they could win the
18:24
championship, which happened what, 1982.
18:29
So you've got you've got that part of the the history and then
18:31
obviously all the turmoil that happened at Penn State.
18:34
And then, you know, Bill O'Brien and he somewhat stabilizes.
18:40
But it's still like, I mean, they were kind of, you know,
18:45
they were going through it for a little bit for those those few
18:48
years. Franklin came in and kind of up
18:51
to the ante, I think. I think he did raise the floor.
18:54
Get to your point. Is that exactly what he's going
18:56
to do? And they're going to regret
18:57
leaving him. But we'll see.
18:59
And that's that's a good one. I think you've got to have a
19:03
coach that like can like that knows what's wrong at that
19:09
program. Like that's some coaches come in
19:12
and just think it's their next job and they're just going to do
19:14
what they did at their other job.
19:16
And something about like a coach coming in and knowing what that
19:20
program needs to take it over the top.
19:23
Because I mean, Penn State, I mean, my estimation is they're
19:26
the great, you know, great program and they've got the
19:29
resources, they've got the buy in from, you know, the fans, the
19:34
boosters, all that stuff. You're in one of the top 2
19:37
conferences. That's one of the checklists.
19:38
Like if you're in the Big 10 of the SEC, you're going to have
19:41
resources. So yeah, I mean, we'll see, man.
19:45
That's a good one. What's your second question,
19:47
Daniel? Yeah, we're going to stay in the
19:49
same Indiana realm here, but I know I'm a week late to this, so
19:53
forgive me for being a casual, but will Indiana run the table?
19:56
This is me now that they've they're past Oregon and I had no
20:02
in no way that I think they were going to be Oregon.
20:04
I had that a very low possibility of them even like I
20:09
really thought Oregon was going to come in and just wear them
20:11
out. I thought this was just and it's
20:14
amazing, Jacob, what one win will do to validate everything
20:18
that he's done to this point. I know that you're going to jump
20:20
in at Curt Signetti and do all that kind of stuff, but like
20:24
this one win. Over one of the top Big 10
20:28
teams, which of course, to me is just right now it's Oregon and
20:31
Ohio State. That's it.
20:32
And before this week, I said, hey, Oregon might be the best
20:35
team in the nation. Not only did they beat them,
20:38
they went to their house and beat them.
20:39
And it wasn't. There's no controversy.
20:42
Indiana was the better team and they beat them handily.
20:46
Fernando Mendoza looks every bit as advertised.
20:49
He might be looking at a Heisman Trophy winner.
20:51
You're probably most likely definitely looking at a top 10
20:55
draft pick in the NFL draft. So I'm, I'm sitting here
20:58
thinking like, like, why? How did Kurt Signetti take this
21:02
long, you know, this long to like land on our radar
21:05
officially. But you know, last year woke us
21:07
up more like, OK, well, maybe it was just schedule related this
21:10
year. So far, it seemed schedule
21:12
related, but I I was at least wary with how they took Illinois
21:19
to the woodshed. But again, it's still just
21:21
Illinois. It was not in in this game.
21:25
It just kind of it almost like remove the scales from my eyes.
21:28
I can finally see like, you know, there's there's not a team
21:32
left on the schedule that they can't beat.
21:34
Obviously they don't play Ohio State, so they could just run
21:36
right to the you know, and I mean the way they're playing, I
21:40
mean, dude, Ohio State better count their days, man.
21:42
This is this is big time, man. They're not they're not scared
21:46
of anybody, is what I'm saying. They went in that game, Oregon,
21:49
and you could have been, you know, gone timid and been tight
21:53
and scared. They went in and and just went
21:55
right after him and did a show. The demeanor.
21:59
We talked about the demeanor of your head coach, Kurt Signet.
22:02
He's not scared of anybody. So big time win, man, Big time
22:06
win. They're going to be favored in
22:08
every game. I'm using our good friend Kelly
22:11
Ford. His projections for the season,
22:13
their lowest win percentage is at Penn State, and it's a 68%
22:17
win percentage projected for that game.
22:20
The rest of those for the rest of the schedule is 979690689697.
22:27
Yeah, I think they're going to be undefeated going to the Big
22:29
10 championship. I mean, it's hard to predict
22:32
undefeated, but like, yeah, we're already halfway through,
22:35
so why not really, really impressive from Indiana.
22:38
Yeah. My second question I'll get I'll
22:40
get more into it, but is Curt Cignetti the greatest coach?
22:42
They're 1.5 years ever. Indiana has their highest AP
22:46
ranking ever. Daniel there.
22:48
I'm just going to show you their their top ten seasons by a win
22:52
percentage in Indiana football history.
22:54
All right, it's not over yet, but through what?
22:56
You know, 2025 because undefeated then you have to go
23:00
to 1945 is next in 10 is after that O5 is 4th, 24 is fifth.
23:12
So if their top five winningest seasons ever, two of those are
23:16
Kurt Cignetti and the other three are pre World War Two and
23:20
two of them are pre World War One.
23:23
So my, my question is like, and it's a legitimate question is
23:27
like, if you look at what the job is and someone taking over,
23:32
I mean, I think it's hard to put in perspective like how good of
23:37
a job he's done in Indiana to take them from, I mean, bottom
23:41
feeder Big 10 program. You're just like you're using
23:43
Indiana chalk of wins as you're going through schedules, You
23:46
know, we're doing over under win totals and we're just like, Yep,
23:49
thankfully they've got Indiana. So that's like a guaranteed win.
23:52
You know, for even schools like, I mean, I mean, even schools
23:56
like Illinois a couple years ago, you're like, yeah, like
23:59
that's a should win. You know, chalk that up to win
24:02
for a school like Illinois, he's done an unbelievable job.
24:06
They're, you know, they're, they've made it into the AP
24:09
ranking highest ever. He's starting to get some love,
24:11
but I definitely doubted him. I yeah, I, I, I doubt Indiana,
24:16
Christina, I thought that Indiana because this happened
24:19
last year. You know, they run it up on bad
24:21
teams and they're a good football team.
24:23
So they can do that. They run it up, make their stat
24:25
profile look good. You know they go on the road to
24:28
Ohio State last year and get clobbered just like taken to the
24:31
woodshed. That's what I assumed that
24:32
happened against Oregon. You know I did you know I did
24:34
some picks on the side pick straight up 10 games the week,
24:37
rank him in confidence points went nine and one last week.
24:41
I lost overall to the inter 16 guys that do picks because I put
24:45
Oregon as my 9 confidence pick last week.
24:49
I was confident they were going to take in the end of the
24:51
woodshed. And I mean, in the end it just
24:54
beat him handedly. Like, it wasn't even like I hit
24:56
the scores a little bit closer than the game was, man.
24:58
Yeah, cursing Daddy, all the respect in the world.
25:02
Yes, he runs his mouth. But man, I'm cool if you run
25:05
your mouth if you get a good play on Saturday and they backed
25:07
it up. Yeah, I think Indiana is going
25:09
to defeat it at least heading into the Big 10 championship.
25:12
And I'll probably be dumb and pick Ohio State.
25:14
Maybe it's not dumb, but cursing that he's fine with that.
25:16
He'll he'll take the doubters and and move on.
25:19
And glad you brought up Indiana too, Daniel.
25:21
We head to halftime. We've got her updated XPR.
25:25
I'm looking at it now. I I do want to highlight
25:28
something with her XPR. So a great follow on Twitter if
25:31
you don't is BCS know how I think it's at BCS know how.
25:36
So they still use the old BCS computers to try to put out like
25:40
a BCS ranking as if like this what the BCS would look like
25:44
today, which is the goal of ours.
25:45
So I don't want to show the RXPR, which I'll highlight the
25:48
top five. And if you're watching on
25:49
YouTube, you can see it on screen or if you're watching on
25:51
Spotify. Now, if you're listening on
25:53
podcasts, make sure to follow us at the extra point upon
25:56
Instagram or at the South Daniel on Twitter or at Jacob Karn to
26:00
the K on Twitter. That's top five is Ohio State,
26:03
Indiana, Texas A&M in Miami and Alabama.
26:07
We would have the same top 4 as the BCS.
26:09
A few differences between that BCS know how model and ours.
26:13
We are lower on BYU. They have BYU all the way at 13.
26:17
We are higher on Oklahoma. We've got Oklahoma up at 10 and
26:21
they've got Oklahoma up at 15 largely the same, which I think
26:26
is a win because our goal is to make this very BCS.
26:29
Like you know, any any big takeaways from our XPR for Week
26:34
8? Yeah, I mean, Ole Miss takes a
26:36
drop, not, you know, not losing a game but not looking super
26:41
impressive in their win. That's like that would be back
26:46
in the day with your watching the, you know, the BCS You'd see
26:51
it, you know, team just dropped after losing, after winning a
26:54
game. And people would be like, this
26:56
doesn't make any sense. They just won.
26:58
It's how you beat people. And there's, you know, back then
27:01
the famous words were style points.
27:03
So it was always style points everybody talked about.
27:05
So did you have style points in your win?
27:08
And, you know, I would say Ole Miss didn't have any style
27:10
points in this win, but they got the view and, you know, for
27:14
their sake, they're going to rely on human beings who
27:17
probably didn't watch that game to make their selection.
27:20
So they're all good. Yeah, what's better, computers
27:24
that didn't watch the game but know every side of the game, or
27:27
human beings who don't know a lick about football who watch
27:30
the game. You know, I say in quotes and
27:33
select the best teams. I'll take the cold hard
27:35
computers every day. Yeah, it's such a sterile
27:37
environment that it seems like they watch the game into, like
27:40
they're not having any joy, like they're not screaming at the TV.
27:44
This. Thing like.
27:45
They're like, when is that cheese it commercial going to
27:47
come back on? My gosh, I need a break.
27:51
Because someone please bring back that Meghan Trainer State
27:53
Farm commercial. They're they're begging for
27:54
that. They're like, this football is
27:56
boring. That commercial's awful.
27:59
All right, you know, third quarter, we're picking four
28:02
games against the spread. What are three games we're not
28:05
picking that we've got our eye on this weekend?
28:08
Yeah, I mean, going through the list, I think there's three
28:10
obvious ones. One of the games we're not
28:13
picking is I'll just go in order of what I have Duke hosting
28:17
Georgia Tech. I think that one's a big one
28:19
because George Tech's on and Duke is favored in this game.
28:23
Duke's at home, they're four and two.
28:25
They're favored by a point and 1/2.
28:27
So really right there at an even line pick them basically.
28:30
But you know, they've had some games where they've looked, you
28:35
know, strong. I've had some games where
28:37
they've, you know, been, you know, outmatched.
28:40
I think that Georgia Tech this if I was, if I was picking one
28:46
game outside of the Georgia game at the end of the year for
28:49
Georgia Tech, if I was picking one game in the ACC left that
28:52
gives gives them the most trouble, this is the game I
28:55
would pick. So if Tech makes it through this
28:57
one, I feel pretty strongly that they can make it through the ACC
29:01
unscathed. Sleeping in kickoff, you know,
29:03
just one that might allow you to sleep just enough.
29:06
Probably not the most exciting atmosphere to play in either.
29:08
So we'll see. But Georgia Tech visiting Duke,
29:11
Duke is favorite. Second one is 1 that I think
29:14
that was right there on the cutting room floor for us.
29:16
So this is the holy war. I don't know why it's called
29:19
that. I'm just kidding.
29:20
But BYU versus Utah. Utah is favorite on the road. 3
29:24
1/2. This will be interesting, man
29:26
like that. I think this is the first
29:27
ranked. Both teams are ranked for the
29:30
Holy War I believe since 1990, the year maybe off but I
29:33
remember saying I think it's 1990.
29:35
So it's been a while since both teams were ranked by the time
29:38
they they met. So forgive me for fans of both
29:41
of these teams. I don't know.
29:43
I feel like they normally play earlier in the year, at least by
29:46
my memory. So I don't know if this game has
29:48
moved different times and stuff that's affected when teams are
29:51
ranked, but the fact that they're both this far into the
29:53
season and both ranked, that means, you know, if they're both
29:56
having pretty good seasons. So excited for that one.
29:59
The other one man Auburn hosting the zoo 2 teams that lost, you
30:04
know, if you want to call it heartbreaking fashion, just
30:07
games that they were playing a team that's, you know,
30:11
traditionally and you know better than and everything that
30:14
the other team is favored and they were both at home and they
30:19
both, you know, got to a final. You know, I don't know if you
30:22
say just final possession, but in general, but like in Mizzou
30:25
got to the final possession is Alabama and Auburn was in the
30:28
game all the way until Georgia punched that last one in.
30:32
So you know, which team can overcome A disappointing loss.
30:38
Auburn is at home, Missouri's favored by a point and 1/2.
30:41
So in a similar that Duke George Tech game where it's just
30:45
basically pick him so straight up that Vegas that know what to
30:49
do with that game. I'm glad we're not picking it
30:51
because I, I don't know are is, is either one of these teams
30:55
going to be galvanized to be better?
30:56
Are they going to be more of what they've already been?
30:58
So excited to watch that one and see kind of, you know, who's
31:02
going to, you know, turn it around, turn their season around
31:05
potentially. I mean, Missouri's having a good
31:07
season. Only one loss was to Alabama.
31:09
So do they bounce right back against Auburn?
31:12
It's a very good defense, very good defense for Auburn.
31:15
So we'll see. We will see what the crowd is
31:18
like too, because it's at Auburn, so they're not going to
31:21
be happy with any call. Do they turn on Hugh free?
31:23
Do they lose that game? Does he get booted off the field
31:25
like James Franklin did? Potentially one more that you
31:28
didn't mention just because I had to get in there.
31:29
It's a ranked V ranked matchup on our XPR, Michigan and
31:33
Washington. 1 1/2 point spread right now.
31:36
I'll be watching that one, Daniel.
31:37
All right, uniforms to watch this weekend.
31:40
You've got some good ones. You've got some really good
31:43
ones. Holy War was one of them.
31:45
Blue and red. That should be a very clean
31:47
match up. Very excited for that. 1 Notre
31:50
Dame in USC. What I love for Notre Dame to
31:52
bring out the dark green jerseys, not the Kelly green,
31:56
but like they wore for the Bush push.
31:59
That's just what, when I think about Notre Dame in UFCI, think
32:02
about that game. That's classic, man, That's
32:03
classic. That'd be awesome.
32:04
Classic Alabama and Tennessee third Saturday in October.
32:08
That should be a great, great uniform match up with that, you
32:12
know, darker Crimson red and the bright orange.
32:14
Josh Pate said this. And I think I wholeheartedly
32:17
agree that this he wishes this game, both teams to wear home
32:22
uniforms for for this one. And I'm like, this is one of
32:25
those ones where I think I agree with you.
32:27
That would be nice looking, especially on TV.
32:30
Like the contrast is way high enough that you could pull that
32:34
off different color helmets too. I was going to say Alabama's
32:37
helmet being always a solid color and Tennessee's being
32:40
white, I think that would work really well.
32:42
Yeah, so those are three uniform matchups I got my eye on.
32:46
We'll see which one wins. Uniform matchup of the week was
32:49
Speaking of which Week 7U matchup of the week winner was
32:55
USC and Michigan. Obviously I will say as I was
32:58
watching both games, I was like, man, I think I think George and
33:03
Auburn looks better on TV. And, and here's the thing, I
33:06
would power rank like Michigan and the US CS uniforms higher
33:09
than George and Auburn. But man, it looked good on TV
33:12
and Auburn wore that dumb Chrome face, Chrome orange face mask.
33:15
Man, it looks so bad. Just messed up like any close up
33:18
channel. I'm like, man, they they got to
33:20
quit this whole like we're wearing different uniforms and
33:23
like we changed the face mask color.
33:24
The Navy face mask on that helmet looks so clean.
33:27
It looks so good. Stop changing it.
33:30
It's not different. Maybe fan, maybe Auburn fans
33:33
love it. I just think it looks awful.
33:35
The orange one, especially the whites, OK, but Navy's better.
33:38
They have a one of the best helmets and uniforms in the
33:40
sport. Stop messing with it.
33:42
Anyway, we'll see which win, which one wins for Week 8 this
33:45
week, Daniel, fourth quarter. We're going to pick the four
33:48
best games the weekend against the spread, starting with Daniel
33:53
Vanderbilt hosting LSU. And Vanderbilt is favored by 2
33:58
1/2. And honestly, if you had told me
34:00
this beginning of the season, I would have been shocked and been
34:04
like, what in the world's going on with both of these teams?
34:07
Has LSU fired Brian Kelly You. Know.
34:10
Vanderbilt like, you know, like, but honestly, I saw the line and
34:13
I was like, yeah, that seems about right, honestly.
34:15
Like if you've been watching Vanderbilt this year and paying
34:19
attention to their chat profile, just they're just a good
34:21
football team, Daniel. They're just a good football
34:23
team. Doesn't mean they're going to
34:24
the national championship, doesn't mean they're going to
34:26
win the SEC championship, but they're a good football team.
34:29
They're at home. It's less than a field goal, but
34:31
they're a 2 1/2 point favorite. Who do you like in this game in
34:34
Nashville? Yeah, this one man, Vanderbilt
34:38
has, I think, woken up a lot of the haters.
34:41
And when they went on the road to play against Alabama and they
34:44
had a lead against Alabama for a little bit and they just didn't
34:47
wilt, you know, Alabama beat them.
34:49
But that was something I thought, I think most of the
34:52
country kind of realized at that point because it's probably one
34:55
of the first times they actually watched.
34:58
Yeah, Vanderbilt's good. They power rate really good.
35:02
Obviously Diego Pavia is, is having a one of these great
35:05
years. You mentioned it in a previous
35:08
show about him being one of the last of a dying breed, being one
35:12
of the older quarterbacks. And I I think that that's a
35:15
something you got to keep in context, like the fact that he's
35:19
here, that that's a big deal. Like that's he's seen a lot of
35:24
ball and he there's something about, you know, being calm
35:28
against these teams that they're supposed to, you know, be major,
35:32
you know, underdogs to in this case, they're not an underdog.
35:35
Jacob, I saw this that on Twitter, Cole Kubrick put it
35:38
out. You may have you probably saw
35:39
the same thing. But Vanderbilt has played 77
35:43
games versus top ten teams since 1978.
35:46
OK, 77 times they've played against a top ten team since
35:51
1978. So was that 50 years or just
35:54
about 50 years? This LSU game on Saturday is the
35:58
first time that they're a favorite.
36:01
I mean, that's that's wild. So that just shows you kind of
36:05
the historical context of what this Vanderbilt team is
36:09
currently doing. You know, they've they've won
36:11
big games before. They have upset people.
36:14
The fact that this one, if they beat LSU would not be an upset.
36:18
It would be an upset in the eyes of many.
36:19
But you know, Vegas knows they know what's going on.
36:22
So as far as this game goes, man, I mean, LSU has been doing
36:29
just enough to win some games. A lot of people have cooled off
36:32
as they should have from their pre season.
36:34
Like, oh, else she's going to win the conference kind of a
36:36
team. They offenses.
36:39
I mean, they're like, you know, unless they're playing southeast
36:42
Louisiana, they're scoring 20 something and, you know, per
36:45
game, Vanderbilt has been much more explosive.
36:48
I'll be it. You know, some of those games
36:50
are are lesser opponents, But I mean, you know, they've had two
36:54
weeks to prepare for this one. I think they come out and shock
36:56
people, man. I'm I'm going with Commodores.
36:59
I think that they're going to be able to get up in this game and
37:02
I, I think that if they play it the way they want, they want it
37:06
to be a shootout. And LSU does not want to shoot
37:08
out because they can't consistently score.
37:10
And I think Vandy can consistently score.
37:12
It's at noon. This would be a perfect
37:15
Jefferson pilot game, but we're going to have it on ABC.
37:21
But no, it's a 2 1/2 point spread.
37:22
I, I like Vandy to win this one. They're not going to, I don't
37:25
think they're going to run away, but any win is a big win.
37:28
I think they win by 4. So I think like, you know, 2723,
37:34
something like that in this kind of a game.
37:37
So give, give me The Commodores shout out Barton Simmons, friend
37:40
of the show Vanderbilt GM Yeah, man, let's do it.
37:44
I love it. Yeah, Vandy's good.
37:47
And I know what I'm going to get from Vandy.
37:48
I'm going to get a lot of effort.
37:51
I'm going to get strong offensive play, smart
37:53
quarterback, play a strong run game.
37:56
I'm also going to get Yolo balls, good and bad.
37:59
I'm going to get some deep balls that are passed for touchdowns
38:02
for for both teams. But a lot of them are going to
38:04
go Vanderbilt's way. Diego Pavia takes risks, but you
38:08
know you can't have explosive pass plays without a little bit
38:10
of risk. So he does that very well.
38:12
He's going to get them into a good play call.
38:13
Offensively, the LSU offense has been bad.
38:16
They've not been able to run the ball out of the bye week that
38:18
Daniel, they had a bye before their game against South
38:20
Carolina. They ran the ball for 6.1 yards
38:23
of carry against South Carolina. They're going up against a good
38:26
Vandy rush defense, their 16th in total rush defense in the
38:29
country. I think LSU might have found a
38:32
good enough run game, though, in the bye week to to win some of
38:35
these games. And they have to because Daniel,
38:38
this defense is a top five defense in the country.
38:40
And that's where, you know, when we look at games like this, I'm
38:43
looking at, you know, match up advantages, right?
38:45
Because it's not just who's the best power rated team, but like,
38:48
you know, styles make fights, match ups or what decides these
38:51
games. So like match up wise, can LSU
38:54
find a run game but gets a good Vanderbilt defense?
38:57
And then Daniel. To me, the biggest difference in
38:59
this game is the best unit on the field is LSU's defense.
39:03
And Vanderbilt has not seen a defense like LSU is.
39:06
The closest thing they would have seen is Alabama.
39:09
And after that first quarter and a half, they really struggled to
39:13
move the ball against Alabama's defense.
39:15
And LSU is a lot better. LSU's defense is the 4th ranked
39:19
defense in SP Plus they're 23rd in yards per carry allowed.
39:23
They're 16th in yards per attempt allowed.
39:25
I think LSU went to this game by a touchdown.
39:27
I don't think they're right away either.
39:29
I think it's lower scoring because I don't think LSU can
39:32
get into a shootout. I think if it gets into a
39:34
shootout, I think Vanderbilt's going to beat him.
39:36
I think it stays lower scoring. I think they win straight up.
39:39
Give me LSU like 2317. So I'll take the points.
39:43
LSU plus 2 1/2. If you told me the preseason,
39:46
hey, I'm going to give you points, LSU versus Vanderbilt.
39:49
I think you you're like, where do I sign up in this one?
39:53
I had a hard time deciding, but I think the match of advantage
39:57
is I think LSU can shut Vanderbilt's offense down and
40:00
keep this into a slugfest. And if it's in a slugfest, I
40:04
like LSU over 4 quarters gets Vanderbilt.
40:05
So give the Tigers in Nashville. Daniel 330 ABC Right after that
40:12
game, you've got Georgia hosting Ole Miss.
40:15
This is a game where Ole Miss 1/28/10 last year, kind of kind
40:18
of 1 going away. I'm in that one.
40:21
Lynn Kiffin gets a win over Kirby Smart, Ole Miss undefeated
40:25
the higher ranked team. Georgia though favored by 7 1/2
40:28
at home. That home 1 streak is over, got
40:30
to try to build a new one in Athens.
40:32
If you're Georgia, who do you like in this game in Athens?
40:34
Yeah, so this one last, you know, we got two years ago,
40:37
Georgia really wears out Ole Miss in in Athens.
40:42
I think it was like 52 to 17 something in that that realm.
40:47
Like they scored a bunch of points.
40:48
It was almost like Georgia could finally like they just like got
40:53
some stuff out of their system offensively and and really had a
40:56
really good game last year on the road.
41:01
Georgia going to Ole Miss. I think most people expect the
41:04
Georgia to win and they ran into a buzz saw.
41:08
Ole Miss, I mean, was the better team on the line of scrimmage.
41:11
Georgia's dealing with some injuries and it kind of showed
41:14
it all kind of manifested during that game.
41:16
I think that this one was kind of circled this year is like,
41:18
you know, that's middle of the year.
41:21
It's at home. I think this is a really big
41:24
deal that it's at in Athens because Georgia, I think with
41:27
this game is if they're if they're on the road, this
41:31
becomes exponentially more difficult.
41:33
Ole Miss has shown their hand a little bit defensively.
41:35
They're not as strong as they were last year.
41:37
Teams are starting fast against them.
41:39
That's been George's biggest problem offensively.
41:41
So if Georgia could right that wrong or at least, you know,
41:46
mitigate it a little bit against this defense, then I think
41:50
George is in pretty good position.
41:51
I will say Trinidad Chambliss. So I've I've, you know, said
41:55
earlier in the year, I think maybe the best dual threat
41:58
quarterback in the SEC potentially in the country as
42:00
far as being balanced and actually doing both of those
42:03
things. Those running quarterbacks give
42:06
Georgia trouble. They've always give Kirby Smart
42:07
defenses trouble. So I do think that in this game
42:11
there will be some points where Ole Miss gets an explosive play
42:15
or has this or has that. That kind of will, will get, you
42:18
know, be a problem for Georgia. But for me, I'm thinking Georgia
42:23
wins outright. It's a 7 1/2 point spread is
42:26
what I'm looking at. If this was under a touch, I
42:28
think Georgia wins by a touchdown.
42:30
So I'm taking Ole Miss with the points just because I, I just
42:35
think they're going to be competent enough to stay close.
42:37
Like Georgia is not going to they're they're not going to
42:40
wilt, they're not going to fold, They're going to win this game.
42:44
But I think it's by less than 7 1/2.
42:46
So give me Ole Miss with the points.
42:48
But I do think that Georgia comes out victorious in this
42:51
game. Yeah, the line confused me too
42:52
when it came out. I mean, this has been as high as
42:55
like 9 1/2. Ugas had slow starts and Ole
43:00
Miss has had fast starts. Daniel, I think that's something
43:03
that you've got to keep an eye on this game.
43:04
I've seen Georgia overcome 3 slow starts, 2IN1 record in
43:09
those, but overcame the slow start and, you know, lost by
43:12
three to Alabama, comes back and beats Tennessee.
43:16
You, you know, come back and beat Auburn.
43:19
If you're looking to Ole Miss, ignore the Washington state
43:21
game. I mean, Lane Kipin Kipin openly
43:24
said they use the bye week to work on Georgia.
43:27
So that's the kind of the result I expect is like a clunker that
43:31
it's like how in the world is Washington State key?
43:33
And it's like, look, they were they were they've been working
43:35
on Georgia for two weeks. They kind of went to that game
43:38
thinking we can put out AD effort and win this game, You
43:41
know, keep it very vanilla, get ready for Georgia, get healthy.
43:45
They were able. I look at last year's game,
43:47
Daniel, because I'm like, OK, can almost replicate what they
43:49
did at home against Georgia, almost dominated the line of
43:52
scrimmage in last year's game. They ran the ball well and they
43:55
stopped Georgia from running the ball.
43:57
I think Georgia had less than 50 yards of carry in this game.
43:59
Almost his defense this year, Daniel, this is the biggest
44:01
difference in this year's team and last year's team won.
44:03
They just don't have the bodies in the defensive line like Lane
44:06
Kiffin said in 2023, they got beat by Georgia.
44:09
They looked internally and said we've got to go get bodies like
44:11
that and they spent to go get bodies in the defensive line for
44:14
the transfer portal and it worked.
44:16
And I mean, they tried to build that team to beat Georgia and
44:19
the and they did successfully. The Ole Miss defense this year,
44:22
Daniel does not have those bodies.
44:23
They're 96th in yards per game allowed.
44:26
They're 113th in yards per carry allowed, 120th in negative play
44:31
percentage, and 102nd and explosive runs allowed.
44:35
The other defense in the other side of the field, it's not been
44:38
up to a Georgia standard, but the Georgia defense is in teeth
44:41
and yards per game allowed. Teeth and yards per carry
44:43
allowed, 104th and negative play.
44:45
They're not getting a lot of negative plays, but they're
44:47
third and explosive plays allowed on defense.
44:50
So it's been a it's been a Georgia defense that stops the
44:53
run, which I mean, I know link if it's known for passive
44:58
explosive offenses. He wants to run the ball right.
45:01
Daniel when the line came up without if I just think about
45:04
Georgia this year, Ole Miss this year, I'm like, oh, Ole Miss.
45:07
But again, matchups are where games are decided.
45:10
This is a matchup disadvantage for Ole Miss over 4 quarters.
45:14
It's 7 1/2 points. Daniel.
45:17
I need to see Georgia start fast before I believe it because Ole
45:21
Miss can absolutely jump out to a 17 nothing lead in this game.
45:24
I still think Georgia wins over 4 quarters because of the match
45:27
up disadvantage, but I'm going to take all missing the points.
45:30
I think it's a 2720 Georgia win. Georgia has the ability to pull
45:34
away in this game because of the match up disadvantage.
45:36
I'm just going to need to see it to believe it.
45:38
Like they they've started so slow in every SEC game this
45:41
year. They get a turnover against
45:43
Kentucky or they could have scored 14 points early.
45:45
Kentucky could have against Georgia.
45:47
I'm going to need to see it even at home before I lay the points
45:51
of Georgia here. Give me Ole Miss plus the point.
45:53
I do think Georgia wins. I'll middle it.
45:55
It is the third Saturday in October on Saturday, Daniel,
45:58
which means we've got Alabama and Tennessee in Tuscaloosa.
46:03
Tennessee has won two of the last three, but those were in
46:05
Knoxville when they won those games.
46:07
Alabama lost last year in Knoxville, beat them at home in
46:10
2023, who became Devour's second game against Josh high up on the
46:14
Volunteers. Tennessee a bye week the week
46:17
before last, you know, kind of a whatever performance last week.
46:23
Alabama has had three straight games in the row or three
46:25
straight games against ranked team.
46:26
Just be the 4th. Daniel, what do you think about
46:29
this game in Tuscaloosa in the in this great SEC rivalry?
46:32
Yeah, I mean, as far as the game itself, I do think, I mean, I
46:37
think Alabama's going to win. I'm just going to come right out
46:39
and say that part. But man, that's like my, that's
46:42
my initial gut reaction. Alabama is going to win.
46:44
But the more I look at like Tennessee and this offense and
46:48
they've got some defensive guy, like if this was, I think if
46:53
this was in Nealon, I think that I would just outright my gut
46:56
would be the Tennessee's going to win.
46:58
So I really think this one's all about home field, which is why I
47:01
would lean Alabama. But even with that being said,
47:03
it's a 8 1/2 point spread. I just don't see Alabama being
47:08
able to get away from Tennessee that far.
47:10
I think the Tennessee might lead in this game.
47:13
I think the Tennessee, I mean, Tennessee could win this game.
47:16
It's just history has shown us that.
47:19
It's in Bryant Denny Stadium. So, you know, they're going to,
47:22
you know, lose there. And the only recent wins have
47:25
been in Kneeland. But I don't know, man, is is
47:29
Tennessee better than they've been recently?
47:31
Obviously they have a common opponent.
47:33
They both play Georgia, you know, Alabama beat Georgia,
47:36
Tennessee lost to Georgia, but both of those were three-point
47:38
games. And you know, I mean, it's all
47:41
about matchups. You know, transitive property
47:43
doesn't always work. So especially college football,
47:46
man. But I like what I think Joey
47:49
Aguilar has kind of unlocked this offense potential back to
47:52
like what they had when Henan Hooker was running it where he's
47:57
he's accurate in the ways that Hypo needs him to be accurate
48:00
where you know, and I I mean this with respect, like under
48:04
throwing balls is like a good thing in the hypo offense
48:07
because you're going to get big plays because your receivers are
48:10
looking back for the ball. Defensive backs are falling down
48:13
or committing penalties. And you know, he's not like
48:16
egregiously under throwing where four guys are coming up.
48:19
He's like giving his guy a chance.
48:21
When I say under throw, I mean he's putting the ball in the air
48:24
and it's not an overthrow. Nico is very regularly making
48:29
overthrows. And you know, Joe Milton was
48:31
known for his overthrows. So this is really been the first
48:34
time since that time with Hinden Hooker that they I think have a
48:38
chance to to be special and, you know, to make Alabama beat them.
48:45
I don't think Alabama gets out of this game without having to
48:48
score at least 30 to win this game.
48:52
And I think you're probably looking at, you know, like
48:55
AA3531 kind of a game. So I'm just taking the points
49:00
just because I do think it's going to be a shoot out that you
49:02
think it's going to be high scoring.
49:04
My gut is that Alabama ultimately finds a way to win
49:06
this one because of the location of the game.
49:09
And I think both teams are good. So I don't think this one's a
49:12
slam dunk like some people have made it seem just because it's
49:15
Brian Day Stadium. And I don't think Alabama is
49:18
going to blow them out. It's not gone are those years, I
49:21
think, or at least this season. I feel like Tennessee's staying
49:24
close with with Alabama has a a chance to win at the end.
49:27
But regardless, give me the eight points, 8 1/2.
49:30
I'll take that hook to 8 1/2 with the Vols.
49:33
Alabama looks like a national championship contender.
49:35
They've got three straight wins over ranked opponents, two of
49:38
those on the road. Really impressive since losing
49:41
to Georgia on Tennessee. Has two conference wins, both
49:44
one score games. One of those in overtime on the
49:46
road at Mississippi State. Of course, they win by three.
49:49
Gets Arkansas at home last week. How much time do they spend the
49:53
bye week working on Alabama? That's my question like did they
49:56
did they think like hey similar to old medicine wazoo like we
50:00
can take care of Arkansas don't care about the score don't care
50:04
about style points. Let's prep for Bama.
50:06
Do they do that during the bye week?
50:08
Because I look at the situation of football, Daniel, again, this
50:11
is this is Bama's fourth straight game and gets a ranked
50:14
opponent. Alabama's office does not run
50:16
the ball well and they've got slow pace.
50:19
Even though they haven't run the ball well, they they're kind of
50:21
taking their time on offense. Ty Simpson's been lethal and
50:24
efficient. Tennessee, they've got the
50:26
number one scoring offense in the country.
50:29
You've got the number 104 scoring defense in the country.
50:32
I think Ty Simpson's gonna light Tennessee's defense up.
50:34
Alabama is something I've talked about them consistently.
50:36
They've proven they don't need to run the ball to win.
50:39
They don't need to run the ball to win.
50:40
Now, Jim Miller still in concussion protocol, don't know
50:44
if he's playing. So I think Alabama, obviously,
50:47
they want to find a run game to accomplish everything they need
50:49
to this season. And I think Miller, when
50:50
healthy, has been opening that up slowly but surely since he's
50:53
come back. I think this is a high scoring
50:55
game. I think that the Tennessee
51:00
defense needs to make this interesting to have a chance.
51:03
And I think they can because I think the Tennessee offense can
51:06
go score for score with Alabama. I think it's a high scoring
51:10
game. Eight in the hook seems like a
51:13
little too much with, again, situational football.
51:16
Tennessee out of there on the road, but they've had more time
51:18
to prep for this game. I think they can go score for
51:21
score can be Tennessee in the points.
51:24
I think Alabama wins by a touchdown.
51:26
Alabama can absolutely cover in this game.
51:28
A little bit nervous picking it, but I just did.
51:30
This seems like a 4134 Alabama win where Tennessee is able to
51:36
move the ball, Alabama's able to move the ball at will and
51:39
Alabama gets enough stops to win this game.
51:41
But again, when it's your when it's your 4th game, it gets a
51:44
ranked opponent. Again, you're not looking for
51:45
style points. I think the Tennessee can keep
51:47
it close. Alabama's just trying to win,
51:50
move on thereby week coming up in a couple weeks, dude.
51:55
And The thing is like this is the it's the same.
51:57
We've seen it with George already, but like the gap
51:59
between the top teams in the SEC and the second tier does not
52:04
exist anymore. I think there's, we talked about
52:06
a couple weeks ago on the pod, like there's like 8 or 10 teams
52:09
that are within three points of each other in the SEC.
52:13
Like the SEC has become what the Big 12 was and the big twelves
52:17
kind of become what the SEC was and that they've kind of got one
52:19
dominant team and then a bunch of, you know, OK teams.
52:22
The SEC has just got one large Tier 2 is kind of what it seems
52:26
like this year. So I think 8 1/2 point just
52:29
seems like a lot for teams. I don't think there's a lot of
52:32
separation over, so give me the Vols plus the points in this
52:36
one. But I do think Alabama wins in
52:39
Tuscaloosa. We end the night Daniel, Notre
52:42
Dame Usci wish we were playing this game in ankle high grass,
52:48
natural grass like Notre Stadium.
52:49
Notre Dame Stadium used to have. Unfortunately, we're playing
52:52
this game on field turf. Notre Dame, a 9 1/2 point
52:56
favorite. They lost the first two games of
52:58
the season by combined 4 points. They've rattled off a bunch of
53:01
wins since. CG.
53:03
Car looks like one of the best QBs in the country, as does Jade
53:05
Maiaba at USC. They have the number one ranked
53:08
offense in SP plus this year looks more like a Lincoln rally
53:12
offense. Defense is coming around, but
53:15
Vegas drops in 9 1/2 points per Daniel.
53:17
Who do you like in this game in South Bend?
53:20
Yeah, this one opened at 7 1/2 and has been bet, you know,
53:24
everybody's on Notre Dame. And so it's moved.
53:27
It's moved the line severely. You know, a couple points now.
53:31
So 9 1/2. I think it's getting too rich
53:34
for me, man. Like, I think Notre Dame's going
53:37
to win this game. And I feel like a coward because
53:41
I'm picking the other team and then I keep taking points.
53:45
But like, I want to get right. Me and you were both one game
53:48
under 500 on the year. And dude, I just like USC and
53:52
Notre Dame are both so balanced. They've both have played like
53:56
offensively. I think they both are two of the
53:59
a few teams in the country that I feel like can beat you
54:02
throwing the ball, can beat you running the ball.
54:04
They have a, you know, a strong running back.
54:06
They've, you know, strong quarterback with receivers and,
54:09
you know, line of scrimmage. I think Notre Dame is better.
54:12
I think, you know, I guess he has some guys that can flash.
54:15
I think Notre Dame maybe has more of them.
54:18
And then I think overall the defense for Notre Dame is is
54:21
better. I mean, recently bias watching
54:27
USC beat the mess out of Michigan.
54:30
I mean, 31 to 13. I mean, they, they, I just think
54:35
that, you know, they haven't scored less than 30.
54:40
That was the least amount of points they've scored all year
54:43
against Michigan. That was the least amount of
54:45
points they've scored all year. 31 points, 9 1/2 points.
54:51
I'm taking 9 1/2 points for USC against most every team even,
54:57
you know, so I don't know Notre Dame.
54:59
I think it'll be a big shot. It'll be a big shock to me if
55:02
Notre Dame covered 9 1/2 points against this USC team.
55:06
I think USC is good. I think that Notre Dame has kind
55:10
of got the benefit of if you want to call it an easy
55:13
schedule, but they lost a good game to Texas A&M by one point.
55:18
And then they've kind of gone on a run of beating some teams they
55:21
should have beaten. Now they've beaten them pretty
55:23
good, which is good. I'm glad that like, they're
55:27
rising to their potential now at this point.
55:29
But all that to be said, like USC lose by two, lost by two
55:33
points at Illinois is their only loss.
55:36
So, yeah, I mean, I think USC can win this game out, right?
55:41
And you know, I don't, I would lean Notre Dame, but I'm just
55:44
going to take the points. I'll maybe be even more of a
55:46
coward to not declare a winner. And I think Notre Dame wins out,
55:49
right? But give me USC in these 9 1/2
55:50
points, All right? This has gotten so rich.
55:53
Like, I think it's going to get bet down by the sharks at the
55:56
end of the week. But here we sit.
55:58
Wednesday afternoon, I'll take USC plus 9 1/2.
56:02
I want to pick UFC to win so bad Did I've had them.
56:05
I started them in my top 12 to begin the season.
56:08
I'm trying to tell everybody that UFC is getting their
56:10
defense right. I think we forgot just how good
56:13
the Lincoln Riley era at Oklahoma was and that he can
56:16
coach that level like that's that's possible.
56:19
He he once again has coached a quarterback to be I think a top
56:24
five quarterback in the country this year is how he's playing
56:26
Daniel. I believe, I believe in the USC.
56:29
I believe in them. I mean, look at their offense
56:31
this year. The number 3 scoring offense in
56:33
the country #2 in points for play #2 in total offense.
56:36
Number one in yards for play. 8.3 yards per play on offense.
56:41
Top 15 rushing offense #2 Passing offense in the country
56:45
for total yards a game. Third in yards per attempt, 4th
56:48
in yards per carry, 6th in explosive run rate, 8th in
56:51
explosive power pass rate. They're not getting sacked.
56:54
Their offensive lines playing well.
56:55
This offense is so good. The defense is playing the run
57:01
well. Past defense is bad, but they're
57:03
playing the run well. Again, it's small changes.
57:05
Like what we said about Lincoln Riley, especially that year with
57:07
Caleb Williams, is like the defense just has to do enough to
57:11
give their offense a chance because they're going to go
57:13
score where the offense doesn't feel like they have to score
57:16
every time they're on the field, but they can.
57:18
The defense is vulnerable, fear. Notre Dame's vulnerable running
57:22
the football this year, which you know, it's kind of they flip
57:25
their stat profile from last year.
57:27
CJ Carr is playing like the best quarterback in the country.
57:29
I think him, Ty Simpson, Jade Maava, Fernando Mendoza, like
57:33
there was probably the top 4 right now that I can think of
57:35
off the top of my head. The Notre Dame defense is
57:37
gettable. They gave up.
57:39
They've already given up 40 plus home against Texas A&M.
57:41
Again, a team that can throw the ball well, just like USD can.
57:45
Daniel. I believe.
57:47
I believe. I want to pick UFC to win this
57:49
game. I can't.
57:51
I can't. I got to see it first.
57:53
I keep. I told you I'm going to start
57:54
following rules. Yeah, I'm going to have to see
57:55
it. I'm not going to pick Georgia to
57:57
be Alabama again until they do for the same reason to pick
57:59
Georgia to be Tennessee. I'm going to need to see it.
58:01
Daniel. The last three years at USC,
58:03
Lincoln Riley's eight and seven over on the road, 5 and 10
58:07
against the spread. I think Notre Dame wins.
58:10
I am going to take the points, I am going to take the points.
58:12
I want to pick them to win. I just can't.
58:14
I'm going to need to see it. So I'll take the points and I'm
58:16
rooting for him. I also think Notre Dame needs
58:19
this win more. This will be USC second loss
58:23
they can store on the table if they need to and get into the
58:25
playoff. Like look at their schedule.
58:27
They've got at Nebraska after a buy Northwestern, Iowa, at
58:32
Oregon, UCLA, so like 2 very losable games on the road.
58:38
But Notre Dame, Daniel, if they lose this game, they are
58:40
eliminated from playoff contention.
58:42
I think they need it more. I think they win the game.
58:44
But give me the 9 1/2 points, man, 9 1/2.
58:47
Give me the points. I want to believe.
58:48
I want to believe. I need to see it.
58:51
They've been bad on the road. We saw it against Illinois.
58:55
They're a better team than Illinois.
58:57
I got to see it, Daniel. Dude, me and you took so many
59:00
points, but you actually took 2 1/2 more points than me because
59:04
the only game we're different on is Vandy and Vandy and LSU.
59:07
But we both took Ole Miss plus points.
59:11
We took Tennessee plus points and USC plus the points.
59:14
How about that? I couldn't tell you till it was
59:17
over. Last week I picked 4 favorites.
59:18
It was the week of favorites. I start looking at games and I
59:21
try not to look at like I've fallen trapped to like oh I've
59:24
picked too many favorites. You know I need to.
59:26
Overthink it and. You overthink it.
59:28
So I'm just I'm picking every game, every matchup.
59:30
Now I look and I'm like, oh, that's all underdogs this week.
59:33
So all favorites last week went three and one all dogs this
59:36
week. Look, 3 and 1 is a winning
59:38
record. I'll root for that.
59:39
You know, maybe we go separate on the I mean, I want to beat
59:43
you, so I'd love to go for it now, but maybe maybe we can
59:46
split it. You know, we'll see there.
59:48
But be sure to follow us at the extra point pod on Instagram,
59:52
YouTube. You can follow Daniel at Deep
59:55
South Daniel on Twitter. You can follow me on Twitter at
59:57
Jacob Carnes with AK. That'll do it for this edition
1:00:01
of the extra point. He is Daniel.
1:00:03
I am Jacob. See ya.