Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / NOW Is the Time to Find Value In Next Tuesday’s Primary Elections!

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NOW Is the Time to Find Value In Next Tuesday’s Primary Elections! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

0:00
Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
0:01
Got a lot coming up today.
0:03
Some really interesting opportunities for you in these markets that
0:05
are coming up in just the next few days.
0:07
So you don't wanna miss that.
0:08
We have an update on the latest on the vote count in California,
0:11
which I think there's some opportunities there as
0:13
well in these markets if you wanna look
0:14
for those.
0:15
We have a preview of the coming,
0:17
um,
0:18
uh,
0:19
primaries
0:19
that are coming up on Tuesday.
0:21
Uh,
0:21
that's June 9th.
0:22
There's a few states there,
0:23
some really interesting stuff there,
0:25
and Dan Andres is gonna join us
0:26
to predict
0:27
the prediction.
0:28
This is a way you can think
0:30
about how to
0:33
build a position in one of these markets.
0:35
It's a great way to test yourself before you dive in.
0:38
We'll get into that.
0:39
We'll explain it all.
0:40
Coming up on Predictable with Stu at predictableshow.com.
0:58
I want to start off with an update on what's going on in California.
1:02
Obvious,
1:02
obviously these races have been a kind of a big deal.
1:05
I don't know if you've noticed that a lot of attention
1:07
being paid to them over the past few months
1:10
leading into the Spencer Pratt situation against Karen Bass,
1:13
Nitia Rahman in the LA mayoral race,
1:16
and the California gubernatorial race,
1:18
which of course Steve Hilton.
1:20
It used to be Eric Swalwell,
1:21
Katie Porter,
1:22
they're all gone.
1:23
Uh,
1:23
you have,
1:24
uh,
1:24
Javier Becerra,
1:26
you have Tom Steyer going to battle here.
1:28
We're looking for who's gonna finish in the top two.
1:30
That's what we're looking for here.
1:31
The vote count is ongoing.
1:33
We explained this in depth yesterday.
1:34
If you missed yesterday's show,
1:35
go back and watch that.
1:37
Generally speaking,
1:38
the way this works,
1:39
and it is a,
1:40
this is not just me being a conservative,
1:42
which I am.
1:43
No apologies for that.
1:45
But California sucks when it comes to counting votes.
1:47
That's got nothing to do with their politics per se,
1:50
uh,
1:50
but it is something that is incredibly annoying because it takes weeks and weeks
1:54
and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks
1:56
to get these votes count,
1:58
counted,
1:58
and it comes in from mail.
2:00
They're still receiving votes for the next 6 or 5 or 6 days.
2:04
It's just silly.
2:05
So
2:05
the way this all spans out,
2:07
I can give you the full uh explanation yesterday,
2:09
but basically the way this all,
2:10
uh,
2:10
works is you get a,
2:12
an initial burst that kind of gives you a baseline
2:15
right as the polls close,
2:16
then it goes into,
2:17
uh,
2:17
votes that are generally more Republican leaning.
2:20
Those are the day of votes.
2:22
We're kind of passing that
2:24
wave now,
2:25
uh,
2:25
which kind of points you to where we're going here.
2:28
This is basically the best this is gonna look for the Republican candidates.
2:32
Uh,
2:32
that you might care about,
2:34
uh,
2:34
in this election or maybe have a position on
2:36
and then it goes into,
2:38
uh,
2:38
these late male votes and,
2:41
uh,
2:41
you know,
2:41
votes that are cured and,
2:43
uh,
2:43
you know,
2:44
all sorts of ridiculous,
2:45
uh,
2:45
different scenarios that they have,
2:47
those votes will,
2:48
will lean heavily
2:49
more.
2:50
Democratic
2:50
than the previous votes.
2:52
It's,
2:52
I know it feels like,
2:53
you know,
2:53
hey,
2:54
they're just like ripping the votes out from wherever they can to find them.
2:58
If,
2:58
if that's happening and we see evidence of it,
2:59
we'll call it out,
3:00
of course,
3:01
but this is the pattern I would expect
3:04
if there were no shenanigans because of the way their dumb laws are set up.
3:08
And that's an important distinction from just out and out fraud.
3:11
What you're about to see
3:13
is going to get very scary for your
3:15
Republican candidates if that's what you're looking for.
3:18
Spencer Pratt
3:19
and Steve Hilton are the two main ones I'm talking about.
3:22
Let me bring you through where we are right now in these two races.
3:25
As we,
3:26
as we speak right now,
3:27
this is the Calci graph
3:28
for the California gubernatorial
3:31
race.
3:32
Uh,
3:32
Javier Becerra is at 75%.
3:34
Before we go on to the,
3:35
uh,
3:36
Steve Hilton part of this,
3:37
uh,
3:38
just to tell you,
3:38
this is exactly why I sold my position on Javier Becerra before this election.
3:43
Because he actually has,
3:44
uh,
3:45
he's gonna be in 1st place,
3:46
I think,
3:47
by the end of this.
3:48
I think he may still be in 2nd.
3:49
I can check that current vote count,
3:51
uh,
3:51
for you as we go.
3:52
Um,
3:53
but.
3:54
It doesn't matter.
3:55
He's gonna wind up being probably in 1st place.
3:56
He's already guaranteed a slot in the runoff.
3:59
And he went up 0 points for that.
4:02
He got nothing
4:04
for that because he was at 75 already,
4:06
and now he's gonna go into an election potentially against another Democrat,
4:08
potentially against Steve Hilton
4:10
with a chance to lose.
4:11
So he's not really gonna go above 75.
4:12
That's why I sold.
4:13
We went from 46 to 75.
4:15
I sold before any votes came in.
4:17
And now we're gonna wait and see if we wanna rejoin this race a little bit later,
4:20
but we already locked in that profit and I'm happy
4:23
to do that.
4:24
OK,
4:24
2nd place right now
4:26
in the election
4:27
is Tom Steyer.
4:29
Steyer,
4:30
however,
4:30
is in 3rd place in the vote count.
4:32
He's considerably,
4:33
uh,
4:34
behind in that vote count.
4:36
Um,
4:36
and,
4:37
you know,
4:37
it shouldn't be a situation.
4:40
Where,
4:40
I,
4:41
I mean,
4:41
I think this is the type of thing that confuses a lot of people.
4:43
So let me explain this real quick.
4:45
The what
4:46
what the market is pricing in.
4:48
It is
4:49
not that
4:51
Steve Hilton is going to come in 3rd place and miss the runoff.
4:55
What they are pricing in
4:57
is they don't believe
4:59
if Hilton makes the runoff,
5:01
he can beat Becerra.
5:03
Because
5:03
he's a freaking Republican in California,
5:06
that's the
5:07
long and the short of it,
5:08
frankly.
5:09
So what they're thinking is,
5:10
if Steyer can get over the hump,
5:12
and there is a chance of that,
5:13
and getting him into 2nd place
5:15
into this election and get into that runoff in November,
5:19
he has a better chance of winning than Hilton.
5:22
Because he's a Democrat.
5:23
And if it's Democrat versus Democrat,
5:24
really anything can happen.
5:25
Plus,
5:25
Steyer has almost unlimited resources,
5:27
not that they've done him all that much good in his multiple runs.
5:30
The point being,
5:31
that's why
5:32
we had a lot of,
5:33
a lot of social media banter yesterday,
5:35
a lot of people pointing out,
5:36
hey,
5:36
wait a minute,
5:36
these prediction markets are now thinking
5:39
that
5:39
Hilton is not even gonna make the runoff.
5:41
Look,
5:41
he's behind Steyer.
5:42
That's not what they're saying.
5:44
What they're saying is.
5:45
Uh,
5:46
Steyer
5:47
is more likely to win the governor race
5:52
than is Hilton because of the party situation.
5:56
They do break this out,
5:57
however,
5:58
as to whether you think Hilton
6:01
or Steyer
6:02
will make it into the runoff.
6:05
What markets are saying right now is that Steve Hilton has a 69% chance.
6:10
I,
6:10
I honestly think it's a little low.
6:11
I think Hilton has a better chance of getting to the runoff,
6:13
but they're saying they're factoring in a 69% chance
6:16
of Hilton
6:17
to get
6:18
into the runoff to face off against
6:20
Becerra.
6:21
Steyer is in the 30s,
6:22
OK?
6:23
So that's what they're seeing here
6:25
right now.
6:27
This is a,
6:27
uh,
6:28
uh,
6:28
uh,
6:28
a race where
6:30
what you're gonna see,
6:30
let me see if I can pull up this,
6:31
uh,
6:32
this race real quick.
6:34
Um,
6:36
I had it open and then,
6:37
uh,
6:39
closed it.
6:40
Just pulling this up live on the air,
6:44
everybody,
6:44
uh,
6:45
what's the best one for this?
6:49
Results.
6:49
Why,
6:50
why is it not pulling this up?
6:52
OK,
6:52
here we go.
6:53
Uh,
6:53
right now we have 27.6% for Steve Hilton,
6:56
Javier Becerra at 25.6%,
6:58
Tom Steyer at 19.8%. So,
7:01
he's got a 9 or 8 point lead over,
7:04
uh,
7:04
Steyer.
7:04
That's the only person he has to worry about.
7:05
Becerra is gonna get in.
7:06
I,
7:07
I,
7:07
I think there's no doubt about that.
7:08
And I would expect Becerra to be in first place.
7:10
When this is all over
7:11
after all this vote comes in.
7:13
Again,
7:13
that has nothing to do with fraud.
7:14
That has to do with the way these laws are set up.
7:16
Maybe there's fraud too.
7:18
Would not be shocked.
7:18
It's freaking California,
7:19
but that
7:20
is what these laws
7:22
are designed to do in a way,
7:24
and it's why these,
7:25
it takes too long.
7:26
And just to put a finer point on how dumb their system is.
7:29
We're gonna talk about South Carolina here in a second.
7:30
South Carolina has a primary on Tuesday.
7:33
Two weeks
7:34
after that primary,
7:35
2 weeks after,
7:36
they will have a runoff
7:38
of the top two candidates
7:39
if no one gets to,
7:40
I think it's 50%.
7:41
The reason why I bring that up is they are able to have their first election,
7:45
count all the votes,
7:46
figure out who's 1st and 2nd,
7:48
have an entire separate campaign,
7:51
and then have another runoff before California will even
7:53
finish counting the votes of the first day.
7:56
That's how stupid this is.
7:58
It's,
7:58
it is impossible to describe how dumb it is.
8:01
It is impossible to describe
8:03
how incompetent it is,
8:04
and it is impossible to describe
8:06
how it damages
8:08
people's
8:09
actual belief
8:10
in the,
8:11
in the sanctity of our system.
8:13
Because how can you believe anything that happens like this?
8:15
You know,
8:16
everyone watched those results come in that first night.
8:18
If you're,
8:18
if you're rooting for Spencer Pratt or Steve Hilton,
8:20
and you're like,
8:21
oh gosh,
8:21
they,
8:22
they're in the runoff,
8:23
that's great,
8:23
and then they're gonna watch this over weeks,
8:25
whittle away.
8:27
And that is a terrible thing for democracy,
8:30
as the left always likes to point out.
8:32
That was a little bit of a sidebar,
8:33
Your Honor.
8:33
I apologize for it,
8:34
but I'm,
8:35
I don't apologize at all.
8:36
OK,
8:36
so that's where we are right now.
8:37
I think Hilton will hold it.
8:39
I'm not sure of it.
8:40
I am interested though
8:42
in potentially taking a position as to getting him into second place.
8:46
As I said,
8:47
he's at 69 right now.
8:49
That's,
8:49
uh,
8:49
you know,
8:49
if you know,
8:50
if you're new to prediction markets,
8:51
the way to think about that
8:52
is a 30,
8:53
basically a 3030 cent profit on a 70 cents investment.
8:57
So,
8:57
for every 70 cents you put in,
8:59
you earn 30 cents if you are correct.
9:01
That's a 42.9% profit.
9:04
That's not,
9:04
there's nothing,
9:04
nothing wrong with that.
9:06
And we're talking,
9:06
I know it's gonna take a while for California to,
9:08
uh,
9:09
To,
9:09
uh,
9:10
count their votes,
9:10
but still,
9:11
over a few weeks,
9:11
43%,
9:13
not too shabby.
9:14
So that if you do believe that Hilton's gonna get there,
9:16
I think I do.
9:17
I'm not
9:18
certain of it.
9:19
I think honestly,
9:20
Steyer's pretty weak.
9:21
If this is a really strong candidate that was there uh as a second Democrat,
9:26
I'd be more worried about it.
9:27
But I think,
9:28
I think,
9:29
and I'm not sure,
9:30
I think
9:31
Hilton holds on.
9:32
I would put him more like 80
9:34
to maybe 85% chance,
9:36
which gives you a little bit of value between 69 and 80% or 85%,
9:39
right?
9:40
Uh,
9:40
so that is where that is.
9:42
Over to the mayoral race.
9:44
The news is not as good
9:46
for Spencer Pratt as it is for Hilton.
9:47
I,
9:48
I'm more confident in Hilton getting into this runoff.
9:50
This is what it looks like
9:51
right now.
9:52
Uh,
9:53
you have Karen Bass at 68%.
9:56
Nitia Rahman,
9:57
the Socialist at 22%,
9:59
and Spencer Pratt at 9.2% chance
10:02
to win.
10:03
Same thing,
10:04
uh,
10:05
here
10:06
that we had at the last,
10:07
uh,
10:07
election that we were talking about.
10:09
This isn't necessarily saying
10:10
that Spencer Pratt is unlikely to get to the runoff.
10:12
What it's saying is
10:14
if Pratt gets to the runoff,
10:15
there's no way he's going to win against any Democrat.
10:17
There's almost no room
10:19
built into that election for Pratt to actually win the mayoralship.
10:22
So,
10:22
you can get 9.2% chance,
10:24
that's it.
10:25
I mean,
10:25
they just feel like,
10:25
OK,
10:26
if he gets in there,
10:26
maybe there's an outlier uh chance.
10:29
Um,
10:29
Rahman
10:31
is now favored to get into the runoff according to the markets.
10:35
Um,
10:36
she's at a 66% chance
10:38
to get into the runoff and pass Spencer Pratt.
10:40
So when you're thinking about this,
10:42
if you think Pratt's a shoo-in here,
10:43
he is not.
10:44
Uh,
10:45
there's still a lot of vote to come in
10:47
and,
10:47
you know,
10:47
the,
10:48
the current vote on that one right now,
10:49
do I have that one pulled up or did I close that one too?
10:52
Let's see,
10:54
California.
10:55
See if I can find this real quick on the fly,
10:58
because that's what I do.
10:59
Los Angeles mayor.
11:00
Here we go.
11:01
OK,
11:01
so Karen Bass at 35%,
11:03
Spencer Pratt 29.9%,
11:06
and Nitia Rahman
11:08
at 22.8%.
11:10
The difference between Pratt and Rahman is about,
11:13
it's less than 40,000 votes.
11:15
OK?
11:15
And there's still a bunch of votes to come in,
11:17
uh,
11:18
still another third
11:19
of votes
11:20
are outstanding.
11:22
And it's gonna be heavily Democratic.
11:24
What we're seeing here,
11:25
what I've noticed,
11:26
and,
11:26
you know,
11:26
again,
11:27
just going through,
11:28
running my numbers,
11:29
which are not as advanced maybe as I don't know,
11:31
some other nerds,
11:32
but
11:32
they're nerdy enough.
11:33
Uh,
11:35
What I see
11:36
is
11:37
Steyer not doing what he needs to do so far
11:40
to pass Hilton.
11:41
He's gonna close the gap,
11:42
but I don't think he passes him,
11:43
at least not yet.
11:44
Ramon,
11:45
another story.
11:46
I mean,
11:46
again,
11:46
I told you yesterday that I sold out of my Ramon position,
11:49
which was a Rahman to get to the,
11:50
uh,
11:51
to,
11:51
to win.
11:52
Uh,
11:53
wish I held it,
11:53
honestly,
11:54
at this point
11:55
because I would be up another
11:57
10%.
11:58
She's up to 22%.
11:58
I think I sold around 12 or something.
12:01
Um.
12:02
But I do think there's a chance,
12:03
uh,
12:04
that Ramon actually comes up and this is a Raman versus Bass win.
12:08
The interesting part about that,
12:09
if we get to that point,
12:11
I think Raman has a shot to win the whole thing.
12:13
So there's,
12:13
there could be value there if you want to dive in.
12:16
Uh,
12:16
I do think there's a lot of value right now.
12:18
I'm,
12:18
I,
12:18
I'm back.
12:19
I was a no on Pratt leading into this.
12:21
I did sell out at a profit yesterday
12:23
and then I dove back in after going through these numbers
12:27
because I feel like he may very well lose here in the first round,
12:31
but he's obviously has a very uphill battle to win in the actual,
12:34
uh,
12:34
final round in November.
12:35
November.
12:35
Remember the November context.
12:37
The November context is going to be
12:39
massive focus on politics for months and months
12:41
and months leading up to this midterm.
12:42
These people are gonna be showing up to vote for
12:45
somebody in the gubernatorial race,
12:47
somebody in a House race,
12:48
and everything else.
12:48
These Democrats are probably gonna come to the polls,
12:51
and they're not gonna want Spencer Pratt to win.
12:53
And look,
12:53
I want Spencer Pratt to win.
12:55
But I,
12:56
I'm pretty confident he's,
12:57
uh,
12:57
unfortunately going to,
12:58
it's gonna be a real uphill battle for him.
13:00
So I do have some no positions on Pratt,
13:02
uh,
13:03
right now.
13:03
So,
13:04
I wanted to give you that update and that was actually longer than I wanted it to be,
13:06
uh,
13:07
largely because I can't stop ranting about this stuff all the time.
13:10
As you might be able to tell,
13:11
I'm really interested in it.
13:12
I love looking at these markets.
13:14
I really do.
13:15
Um.
13:16
I've got an opportunity for you,
13:17
I think,
13:19
an interesting one,
13:19
a different one
13:21
in South Carolina.
13:22
It's gonna take me a little time to walk you through that.
13:24
So why don't I take a break here,
13:26
come back on the other side,
13:27
we'll talk about South Carolina
13:30
uh and some of the other opportunities
13:32
on Tuesday.
13:33
And then we have Dan Andros coming up as well to predict the prediction.
13:37
We're gonna go all over the board and see if we can kind of
13:39
get an idea
13:40
as to what some of these markets should look
13:42
like before we know what the actual answer are.
13:44
We'll get to that as well.
13:45
You can play along with us in that game coming up.
13:47
Take a break.
13:48
It's predictableshow.com.
13:50
That's our sub-stack.
13:51
We have all sorts of written stuff there.
13:53
We're expanding that by,
13:54
by the day.
13:55
I know,
13:55
uh,
13:56
we've had great reaction to it and lots of new subscribers over there.
13:59
So,
13:59
join
14:00
the club on the ground floor,
14:02
right?
14:02
Get in,
14:02
uh,
14:03
at the ground floor and we,
14:04
you know,
14:05
I love my ground floor people.
14:06
So please come on over as we're building this
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All you gotta do is put your email in it
14:11
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We're also on all the social media at predictableShow.com
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Back in a second.
14:20
Welcome back to Predictable with Stu,
14:23
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Go there,
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subscribe,
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do the things we love when you do them.
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Helps us beat the algorithm robots,
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So
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I do appreciate you checking this stuff out.
14:34
We'll try to get you the best election information
14:36
using the prediction markets kind of as a guide,
14:39
as a tool.
14:40
I think it's the best tool that we have,
14:41
frankly,
14:42
to understand this stuff.
14:42
And then,
14:43
in addition to that,
14:44
we'll look for a little vulnerabilities,
14:46
with interesting opportunities.
14:47
Weaknesses in these markets to uh take advantage
14:50
of them together cause we're building together here.
14:52
We're building together to November.
14:53
We wanna build that bank roll up
14:55
so that we can all kind of come together
14:57
and uh take advantage of the next year.
14:59
Politicians have been making money off of you for a long time,
15:02
time that we turn the tables on that a little bit.
15:04
And that's what we do here at Predictable with Stoop.
15:05
OK.
15:06
Upcoming primary elections,
15:07
June 9th,
15:08
uh,
15:08
this is Tuesday.
15:09
Trying to get ahead of these a little bit more so we can see these opportunities,
15:12
uh,
15:12
um,
15:13
ahead of time,
15:14
Maine.
15:14
Nevada,
15:15
North Dakota,
15:16
and South Carolina
15:18
are our focuses for June 9th.
15:21
I,
15:21
I,
15:21
I mentioned this earlier,
15:23
but you see on June 23rd is the South Carolina runoff,
15:25
so they're able to do their entire election,
15:27
a whole new campaign,
15:28
uh,
15:29
one on one campaign,
15:30
and a runoff
15:31
in the time that California can even count the vote.
15:33
It's just,
15:34
uh,
15:34
unbelievable.
15:35
So we'll,
15:35
we'll hit these as we go.
15:37
One of the things I noticed on some of these previous elections is
15:39
you have like things that I,
15:41
you know,
15:41
again.
15:42
This is an important lesson for this program.
15:44
Whenever I say the words sure thing,
15:47
add in air quotes.
15:48
Cause there's no such thing as a sure thing.
15:50
You never know,
15:51
you never know when your favorite candidate
15:53
winds up in an Epstein email.
15:55
Anything can happen.
15:56
I mean,
15:56
imagine if you're a big Graham Plattner fan these days.
15:59
I mean,
15:59
you know,
15:59
anything can happen,
16:00
OK?
16:01
So,
16:02
sure thing,
16:03
always in air quotes.
16:04
That's a fundamental
16:05
hard uh foundational law of this program.
16:09
Please add in the air quotes whenever I say sure thing.
16:11
OK.
16:12
I wanna go through South Carolina here,
16:14
uh,
16:14
and it has to do with one of our
16:17
active thesis statements,
16:19
which is Donald Trump
16:21
owns these primaries on the Republican side when he wants to.
16:24
He jumped into 3 of these races,
16:26
South Carolina,
16:27
Iowa,
16:28
and Oklahoma.
16:29
Now,
16:30
we know what happened in Iowa.
16:32
Feensstra lost.
16:33
His guy
16:34
lost in Iowa.
16:36
He also endorsed in,
16:37
uh,
16:38
South Oklahoma,
16:39
which is coming up in another week,
16:40
um,
16:41
um,
16:41
state Senator Mike
16:43
Mazza.
16:43
I,
16:44
I don't even know Mike,
16:44
but.
16:45
Uh,
16:45
he's the guy that he,
16:46
uh,
16:46
I haven't looked at that race really that much yet.
16:48
And then,
16:49
uh,
16:49
Randy Feenstra,
16:50
uh,
16:50
obviously lost.
16:51
Pamela Yvette
16:53
is the one who,
16:54
she's the lieutenant governor from South Carolina right now,
16:56
and she is the,
16:57
uh,
16:58
the recommendation for Donald Trump.
17:01
When Donald Trump does this,
17:03
like we,
17:03
I think we're really early on this.
17:05
I mean,
17:05
you know,
17:06
people know that Donald Trump has effective endorsements in primaries,
17:09
but we were
17:10
able to jump into a lot of these situations over the past couple of months
17:14
when Donald Trump would endorse
17:16
and,
17:16
um,
17:17
you know,
17:18
that would happen before
17:19
it would rise to 90 or 95% chance to win,
17:23
right?
17:23
Like we were able to catch those on the way up pretty early.
17:26
People are catching on to this though,
17:27
and we're not,
17:28
you know,
17:28
certainly we're not the only people in this game.
17:30
Uh,
17:30
you'll see here,
17:31
and this is the race,
17:32
what the race looks like from Cal Shee,
17:34
South Carolina Republican governor
17:36
nominee.
17:37
Uh,
17:38
Yvette is now at 74%.
17:40
She has been,
17:41
I would say,
17:43
a co-favorite with Alan Wilson for most of the campaign.
17:47
Until you see that giant shooting up here in the last few days,
17:51
uh,
17:52
when that endorsement came through,
17:53
went up to about,
17:54
I don't know,
17:55
90%
17:56
chance for her to win.
17:58
It's now bounced back down to 74% as of this morning.
18:01
I'll give you an update on that here in a second cause it's important
18:04
as to where we go.
18:05
But I wanna take you over to another race to set
18:08
the stage for what I'm about to propose to you.
18:10
And again,
18:12
Sometimes I will tell you,
18:13
hey,
18:13
here's a quote unquote sure thing.
18:15
Sometimes I will tell you,
18:16
hey,
18:16
I think there's real value here.
18:18
Sometimes I will say,
18:19
hey,
18:19
there's a long shot possibility here that I think is worth your time and attention.
18:24
You know,
18:24
it might feel like it might not feel like you're gonna nail it,
18:27
but I think there's a little bit of one
18:29
of those types of opportunities in this South Carolina race
18:33
coming up on Tuesday.
18:34
Let me walk you through it.
18:36
But let me start
18:37
in South Dakota.
18:38
South Dakota,
18:39
there was a race for South Dakota.
18:41
Uh,
18:42
Republican governor nominee that happened on
18:45
Tuesday,
18:45
and it was an interesting race.
18:46
This is what it looks like right now.
18:48
It's been
18:48
settled,
18:49
at least as far as we go to the next round for South Dakota.
18:53
Right now,
18:53
Toby Doden is at a 52% chance to win.
18:56
Larry Rhoden,
18:57
who is the incumbent candidate,
18:59
is at 46% chance to win.
19:01
But that simplifies what this race actually was.
19:05
Let me give you
19:07
the vote totals
19:08
from this race.
19:10
This is,
19:10
this was a very competitive race
19:13
and a four-way race in the Republican primary.
19:16
This is what it looks like,
19:17
uh,
19:18
right now.
19:18
Uh,
19:19
Toby Doden was in first place,
19:21
30.6%.
19:22
2nd place,
19:23
Larry Rhoden,
19:24
the incumbent,
19:24
uh,
19:25
who he was
19:25
put in there after Christie Nome left to go to the Trump administration,
19:28
he's at 25.2%.
19:31
Dusty Johnson,
19:32
who now is not going to.
19:34
Go on to the runoff,
19:35
but he finished at 23.4% chance to win.
19:39
And then John Hansen
19:40
also over 20% at 20.8%. So in a 10 point swing
19:45
from 20 to 30% of the vote,
19:46
you have four different
19:48
candidates
19:49
all competing for this,
19:51
and as you see,
19:52
the vote totals in between 28,
19:54
and 41,000.
19:55
OK.
19:56
The reason I bring that up
19:58
is because we have an actually an expanded version of that race
20:02
happening
20:03
in South Carolina
20:05
in just a few days.
20:07
And I think it provides a unique opportunity.
20:09
Can we give me the,
20:10
give me that,
20:10
uh,
20:11
South Dakota,
20:13
uh,
20:13
vote count one more time if you will,
20:15
just to show you where we are on this.
20:17
On the prediction markets.
20:19
In the last day,
20:20
like the day leading up to the election and the,
20:22
and when the vote came out,
20:24
they had wild swings between these four candidates,
20:27
which provides real opportunity.
20:30
Doden,
20:30
who finished first,
20:31
was everywhere between 49% chance to win and 72% chance to win
20:36
in that time period.
20:37
Rhoden,
20:38
who is in the runoff with him.
20:41
was everywhere from 13% chance
20:44
to 47% chance,
20:46
which is actually where he is right now,
20:47
basically.
20:48
Dusty Johnson
20:50
was everywhere from 37% to 55% chance to win,
20:54
and John Hansen was everywhere from 3%
20:57
to 27%
20:59
chance to win.
20:59
Now,
21:00
again,
21:00
he finished 10 points behind at the end of the day,
21:02
but was still relatively
21:03
competitive.
21:04
The bottom line there is when you have 4 candidates
21:06
that are very close together,
21:08
you see wild swings.
21:10
That's kind of what we're looking for here.
21:12
I don't know that we're gonna hit any of these,
21:14
but let me explain what I'm thinking here.
21:15
This is the Republican gubernatorial primary in South Carolina.
21:20
This is the polling.
21:21
It's,
21:22
it's an incredible race,
21:23
honestly.
21:23
You have 5 candidates there,
21:25
Yvette,
21:26
Wilson,
21:27
Norman,
21:27
Mace,
21:28
and Reddy.
21:29
All 5 of them
21:30
are largely competitive
21:32
in this race.
21:33
The RealClearPolitics average has it at
21:35
19.7% for Yvette,
21:38
15.7% for Wilson,
21:41
14.7% for Norman,
21:43
14.7% for Mace,
21:45
and 15,
21:46
13.7%
21:48
for Reddy.
21:49
These candidates all have different profiles.
21:52
Yvette,
21:52
as we just discussed,
21:53
is the candidate that Donald Trump endorsed.
21:55
You would expect her to be the favorite coming into this,
21:57
and you see that reflected in the Trafalgar Group poll
22:00
that just came out
22:01
after this endorsement,
22:02
which has her at 26%
22:04
and a relatively large
22:06
lead in that race.
22:07
The rest of that poll,
22:08
by the way,
22:08
for those listening on podcast,
22:09
Wilson at 17%,
22:10
Norman at 16%,
22:11
Mace at 15%,
22:12
and Reddy at 17%.
22:15
The Citadel had a poll as well,
22:17
part of,
22:17
part of this after the endorsement,
22:19
um,
22:19
and,
22:19
uh,
22:20
that also had,
22:21
uh,
22:21
uh,
22:22
Yvette leading,
22:22
but only by 1 point.
22:24
17 for Yvette,
22:25
16 for Wilson,
22:26
13 for Norman,
22:27
16 for Mace,
22:28
and 14 for Reddy.
22:30
You could look at this race.
22:33
I think very fairly
22:35
and say,
22:36
I'm skeptical of the Donald Trump endorsement after what happened with
22:39
Feensstra and say this is just a five-way tie race.
22:42
OK?
22:42
You could say that.
22:43
That's not what I would say.
22:44
I would say Yvette is the favorite.
22:45
And then you have 4 others that honestly
22:48
could go either way.
22:49
All of these polls
22:50
show them in a very close circle.
22:52
To give you an idea of who these candidates are,
22:54
you have Yvette who was,
22:55
uh,
22:55
uh,
22:56
uh,
22:56
uh,
22:57
endorsed by Donald Trump.
22:58
Then you have,
22:59
uh,
23:00
Nancy Mace,
23:00
who has been,
23:01
what,
23:01
you remember,
23:02
she's a very big public figure.
23:04
You know her probably,
23:05
she is been been back and forth.
23:07
She,
23:07
you know,
23:08
and Trump endorsed against her in 2022,
23:10
she wound up winning anyway.
23:11
Trump endorsed her in 2024,
23:12
they became buddies again.
23:14
They had a falling out over this endorsement and the Epstein Files stuff.
23:18
So,
23:19
uh,
23:19
she's kind of her kind of a wild card in this race.
23:22
Uh,
23:23
Reddy
23:24
is a guy who is a,
23:25
uh,
23:25
a,
23:25
a wealthy,
23:26
uh,
23:27
guy who is,
23:28
I would say sort of MAGA-ish,
23:29
but also
23:31
not endorsed by Trump,
23:32
uh,
23:33
but it's sort of an independent,
23:34
out of the mainstream sort of guy
23:36
who's self-funding,
23:38
he's got a bunch of money,
23:39
uh,
23:40
sort of a character,
23:41
right?
23:42
He's there as well.
23:43
Again,
23:43
a totally different profile than those other two,
23:45
candidates.
23:47
Norman,
23:47
you would say,
23:48
is the,
23:50
uh,
23:50
the candidate who
23:52
is least tied to Trump,
23:53
I would say,
23:55
you know,
23:55
he endorsed,
23:55
I think he endorsed Nikki Haley back in the day,
23:57
of course,
23:58
that's the ultimate crime,
23:59
uh,
23:59
to Donald Trump.
24:00
Uh,
24:01
and so he is more of maybe the establishment guy.
24:04
And then in between
24:06
that,
24:06
you have Wilson,
24:07
who has largely been seen as the secondary favorite,
24:10
the second-place favorite,
24:11
maybe most likely to win a runoff.
24:12
Again,
24:13
there is a runoff here.
24:14
There is,
24:15
I would argue,
24:16
no chance
24:17
that someone's gonna get to 50%.
24:19
Now,
24:19
if there is a person,
24:20
it would be Yvette because of the Donald Trump endorsement,
24:22
but
24:23
that would be a shocking result and an incredible result for a vette.
24:26
Maybe she'll be able to pull that off.
24:28
My point here though is that you could look at this race and say,
24:31
I think pretty fairly.
24:33
Anything can happen.
24:35
I,
24:35
I mean,
24:35
honestly,
24:36
anything could happen in this race.
24:37
The way this polling is set up,
24:38
the way these candidates have all different profiles.
24:41
It would not be shocking to me that any of these 5 finished in 1st place.
24:48
There are some that I would say,
24:49
certainly much more um uh
24:52
likely than others,
24:52
but my,
24:53
my bigger focus is not first place where I kind of expect a vet to win.
24:57
My focus here
24:58
is 2nd place.
25:00
Second place is really interesting here.
25:04
Here is the,
25:05
uh,
25:05
what we have for the percentages on Calshi right now.
25:08
Yvette
25:09
is down,
25:10
I mentioned,
25:11
I,
25:11
uh,
25:11
earlier this morning was at 70-something%,
25:13
is now down to 60% favorite.
25:15
Allen Wilson is rising quickly
25:17
and is now at a 35%
25:20
favorite.
25:21
Those are the two
25:22
everyone expects to get in,
25:23
and you know what,
25:24
it's very possible,
25:25
perhaps likely
25:27
that they will.
25:27
But usually in a race like this,
25:29
something weird happens,
25:30
right?
25:31
Something unexpected happens.
25:33
And what I like about this particular race,
25:35
is trying to catch that weird thing,
25:38
because you can do it incredibly
25:41
cheaply.
25:42
The 3 other candidates who again in all polling
25:46
are basically even
25:48
with the secondary candidate.
25:50
The three are Ralph Norman,
25:52
Nancy Mace,
25:52
and,
25:53
uh,
25:53
is it
25:54
Ram Reddy?
25:55
Uh,
25:56
I believe his name is Ram.
25:57
Ram Reddy.
25:58
All three of these candidates can be purchased as I speak,
26:01
as I record this,
26:03
for less than 3% chance to win.
26:06
3.
26:10
It's likely one of them fades away.
26:12
It's likely one of them pops a little bit.
26:15
It's likely one of them,
26:17
you know,
26:17
stays around the same.
26:18
But they should be pretty competitive
26:21
for these races.
26:22
There's a lot of undecided voters.
26:25
A lot of them will probably go with a vet who will be in first place,
26:28
but who can get into that second place?
26:30
If a person,
26:31
uh,
26:31
one of these other three candidates,
26:33
gets into a runoff,
26:34
you would expect them to at least
26:37
pop up to
26:38
25% chance to win this race.
26:40
And you could buy them right now at 3.
26:43
I would say there's a decent chance one of them does this,
26:46
you know,
26:47
it might not happen,
26:48
but what I like about this is all the wild swings
26:51
that happened in the last 24 hours of a race.
26:54
What I have done here is gone in on all three of those candidates at very cheap prices.
26:59
Now,
26:59
I will say they've popped a little bit since I went in.
27:02
I was buying,
27:03
let's see if I can find my percentages here
27:05
real quick as we speak.
27:08
Uh,
27:08
do I have them up here?
27:09
Here we go.
27:09
Yes,
27:10
I do.
27:11
So,
27:11
Nancy Mace,
27:12
I got about 3.
27:13
Ralph Norman,
27:14
I got about 1.5.
27:16
Ron Reddy,
27:16
I got it 1.8.
27:18
OK,
27:18
percent chance.
27:19
Again,
27:20
1.8% chance,
27:21
if one of these guys pops just once,
27:24
I'm gonna put some of these shares on sale,
27:26
essentially now,
27:27
somewhere between between 10 and 20,
27:30
just hoping they pop up and I sell them and I make a,
27:32
a profit and,
27:33
and,
27:33
and take any of the risk out of this.
27:35
But I think there is a chance.
27:36
That one of these candidates gets into the runoff,
27:38
which is almost a guarantee
27:40
that there is going to be a runoff,
27:42
and if that happens,
27:43
we will have a real opportunity at turning
27:47
2 cents or 3 cents
27:49
into 20,
27:50
into 25,
27:52
into 30%.
27:53
Who knows?
27:56
Maybe into 10,
27:57
but turning 2 cents into 10,
27:58
I don't,
27:59
I don't know if,
27:59
if you're a mathematician here,
28:00
but that's good.
28:01
That's good eating.
28:02
Making an 8 cent
28:03
profit on a 2 cent investment,
28:05
uh,
28:05
that's,
28:06
that's good stuff.
28:06
We like that.
28:07
You can,
28:08
just so you know how much these things cost
28:10
if you're kind of new to prediction markets.
28:12
If you're spending like for,
28:14
let's see,
28:14
um,
28:16
Uh,
28:16
uh,
28:16
1000 shares at,
28:18
uh,
28:18
$1.5
28:21
would be what,
28:22
15 bucks,
28:23
right?
28:23
I'm doing that right,
28:24
right?
28:24
Yeah,
28:24
yeah,
28:25
if it was at,
28:25
uh,
28:25
15,
28:26
yeah,
28:26
it would be,
28:26
uh,
28:27
yeah,
28:27
uh,
28:27
1000 shares,
28:28
15 bucks
28:29
to get 1000 shares,
28:31
uh,
28:31
30 bucks to get 2000 shares,
28:33
uh,
28:34
52 bucks just to get,
28:36
you can get a ton of shares here.
28:38
And if something happens where this person happens to perform,
28:41
you're gonna have a real nice return.
28:43
One of the things I was trying to suss out is who is the least connected
28:47
to that Trump endorsement,
28:48
right?
28:48
Like,
28:49
because the Trump endorsement's gonna put votes that were with,
28:51
uh,
28:51
other candidates over to a vet.
28:53
I have no question about that.
28:54
Where do they come from?
28:55
Well,
28:56
they might come from Wilson.
28:57
They might,
28:58
uh,
28:58
who is tied to Trump,
29:00
uh,
29:00
but not endorsed by Trump.
29:02
It might come from Mace though.
29:03
I think Mace has some independent streak that is,
29:05
is a little bit separate,
29:07
and they had,
29:07
they've been at odds.
29:09
Norman is another guy where I feel like it's not gonna be all that affected.
29:11
He's kind of seen as a,
29:13
as a much more establishment guy.
29:14
So the people,
29:15
the 15,
29:15
20%
29:16
who are hanging around with Ralph Norman
29:18
might stay there despite the Trump endorsement,
29:20
where maybe someone like a Reddy
29:22
uh or a Wilson might be more susceptible to losing votes because of that.
29:26
Anyway.
29:26
You know,
29:27
if you're in South Carolina,
29:27
I'd love to get your thoughts as to whether I'm reading this correctly
29:30
as far as those 5 candidates and where they are.
29:33
Uh,
29:33
that's,
29:34
you know,
29:34
where I am with them right now.
29:36
Um,
29:37
but I think there's an opportunity here,
29:38
and it's an interesting one
29:40
to take a very small investment and turn it into 345 times your money or more.
29:44
Uh,
29:44
so that is kind of how I'm playing this one
29:47
right now.
29:48
Once we get past this initial,
29:50
uh,
29:51
election on,
29:51
on Tuesday.
29:52
It'll settle into a normal runoff and I think there will be a lot of interest for me
29:58
on
29:58
Yvette
29:59
in that runoff.
30:00
But
30:01
right now,
30:02
we're not quite there yet,
30:02
and I think there's some interesting opportunities there.
30:04
Hopefully,
30:04
I explained that well.
30:05
I know it's a little bit more layered than,
30:07
uh,
30:08
you know,
30:08
just saying,
30:09
hey,
30:09
here's the winner.
30:10
Uh,
30:10
there's just,
30:10
I think,
30:11
interesting opportunity.
30:11
They all seem way too cheap to me
30:13
at 12 cents.
30:15
I mean,
30:15
I,
30:15
you know,
30:16
now it's,
30:16
I see a couple of them popping,
30:17
uh,
30:17
up to a little bit higher than that.
30:19
We'll see if that continues,
30:21
uh,
30:21
going forward.
30:22
OK.
30:23
We're gonna take another break,
30:24
come back with Dan Andros on the other side,
30:25
and we play Predict
30:27
the prediction.
30:27
It's predictableshow.com and,
30:30
and it's predictable with Stu.
30:31
Make sure to follow us on social media
30:33
and go to the sub stack as well at predictableshow.com.
30:48
Welcome back to Predictable with Stu,
30:50
PredictableShow.com.
30:51
It's time for Predict the Prediction.
30:53
Dan Andros is with us,
30:55
uh,
30:56
joining us live from his
30:57
humble abode
30:59
to bring,
30:59
uh,
31:00
an interesting insight into prediction markets.
31:03
And this is one of the things
31:04
that we like to do kind of behind the scenes,
31:06
and I think it's worth doing every once in a while in front of them as well.
31:10
When you have a prediction market,
31:11
Dan,
31:12
I think it's a great idea to do this exercise,
31:14
which is if you can,
31:15
think of the prediction market,
31:17
you try to predict.
31:19
Uh,
31:20
what you think,
31:21
essentially,
31:22
uh,
31:22
the markets will be at.
31:24
What should they be at,
31:25
in your opinion,
31:27
before you look at the markets?
31:28
Because
31:29
if you,
31:29
let's say you think there's a 30% chance of something happening.
31:32
And you go to the markets and there's a 90% chance of it on the markets,
31:36
there's one of two things happening.
31:38
One,
31:38
you don't understand what you're talking about,
31:40
which is very likely.
31:41
Uh,
31:42
but,
31:42
or two,
31:43
maybe there's real value there,
31:46
where you think it should be 30%,
31:47
and everyone else is saying it should be 90%,
31:49
and you should get in that market and make some money,
31:51
right?
31:52
That's how we like to kind of just get a,
31:54
a general gut check at the beginning,
31:55
and that's the process we're doing now.
31:57
It's called predict
31:58
the prediction.
31:58
Welcome,
31:58
Dan Andrews.
32:00
All right,
32:00
thanks for having me,
32:01
Stu.
32:01
We'll see how far off I can get on these things.
32:03
Yes,
32:04
because I do not.
32:05
I will say,
32:05
or the market.
32:06
I'm just gonna,
32:06
I'm immediately gonna say the market's way off if I'm,
32:09
if I'm,
32:10
my numbers,
32:11
uh,
32:11
there's a big gap there.
32:13
My understanding in the AI era,
32:14
it's always OK to blame the computer,
32:17
uh,
32:17
so we're gonna do that,
32:18
a lot of that today.
32:19
So
32:20
what has happened is our,
32:21
uh,
32:21
producer Adams has picked a bunch of different random markets.
32:25
Uh,
32:25
that I have not seen and do not know what the percentage
32:28
of,
32:29
of these things are.
32:30
And we're going to basically try to predict where these
32:33
markets are without looking and then we'll reveal the results.
32:36
Let's see how we do
32:37
here,
32:37
Dan,
32:38
it's gonna be an interesting exercise cause I,
32:39
I,
32:40
I've seen some of these topics here,
32:41
some of them I have absolutely no idea.
32:43
But let's start with one that we do know something about.
32:45
I've actually talked to you a little bit about this offline.
32:48
Uh,
32:48
first question on predict the prediction.
32:50
How many Knicks playoff games
32:53
will Timothy Chalamet
32:55
attend?
32:57
Now,
32:57
a little background on this.
32:58
The number we're talking about here is 10.
33:01
He has already attended 5.
33:03
OK.
33:03
So he's at 5 already.
33:05
He would have to attend 5 more
33:07
to get to 10.
33:08
Will he get to 10?
33:10
What
33:11
is,
33:11
uh,
33:11
you wanna,
33:12
you wanna go first on this one,
33:13
Dan?
33:13
I know you,
33:13
uh,
33:14
you've been watching these,
33:15
these,
33:15
this series.
33:16
He attended last night.
33:17
So I think that's the 5th,
33:19
right?
33:19
That's the 5th.
33:20
OK,
33:20
so we're at 5.
33:21
All right,
33:21
so we're at 5.
33:22
So.
33:23
Now,
33:24
the first of all,
33:25
the series would have to go at least that many games.
33:28
So
33:28
we're assuming that the Knicks won the first game,
33:31
sadly.
33:32
So,
33:32
uh,
33:34
as a Celtics fan,
33:34
you're allowed to be disappointed in that,
33:36
right?
33:36
And it's like,
33:37
honestly,
33:37
I actually like this Knicks team.
33:39
I like.
33:39
Jalen Brunson,
33:40
but,
33:40
uh,
33:40
it's just the fans are,
33:41
they're obnoxious.
33:42
If you're a Knicks fan,
33:43
you know,
33:44
you're probably one of the good ones,
33:45
but the ones that are out there and they're just so annoying.
33:48
Uh,
33:49
anyway,
33:49
um,
33:50
so you have to think the Spurs will probably win at least a game,
33:52
so he at least has the chance,
33:54
like he's not gonna get.
33:55
You know,
33:56
sweep here by the Knicks,
33:57
and then even if he goes to all of them,
33:59
he falls short.
34:00
So,
34:02
Uh,
34:02
I,
34:02
I'm gonna,
34:03
I would have to say it's pretty high chance.
34:05
I think he's been going to all these,
34:07
the Knicks are in the finals,
34:08
Knicks fans are excited.
34:10
I mean unless he's got a film or something I don't know about,
34:12
I don't know.
34:13
I'll put it at like
34:14
85,
34:16
85%.
34:17
All right,
34:17
let me write this down here because this is interesting.
34:19
85% for Dan.
34:21
Dan,
34:21
I,
34:22
I don't know his filming schedule.
34:23
That'd be the only caveat there if he's like,
34:24
if he's like hopping in and off the sets.
34:26
Is he a fan or not,
34:27
Dan?
34:28
If he's a fan,
34:29
you say screw your filming schedule.
34:31
You tell whatever,
34:32
you know,
34:33
mediocre movie you're about to make that they're gonna
34:35
go on hiatus for a couple of days.
34:36
I'm going to watch the Knicks.
34:38
And clearly these guys have nothing going on because Ben Stiller is there too,
34:41
and he's in the front row.
34:42
Every one of these games,
34:43
these,
34:44
these far-left guys that are always about equality and everyone needs a chance.
34:48
They're hogging up the front row every chance they can get.
34:52
When he doesn't have to work,
34:52
apparently,
34:53
he's just constantly at games.
34:56
Anyway,
34:56
but Dan,
34:57
he's actually,
34:57
did you see they're making another,
34:59
like Meet the Parents sequel
35:01
with Ben Stiller?
35:03
And he,
35:04
it's like I think I can't,
35:05
didn't he meet him already?
35:06
No,
35:07
yeah,
35:07
we didn't.
35:07
We met them.
35:08
We,
35:08
uh,
35:09
there,
35:09
there's the,
35:10
the Fokker in Law,
35:11
I think is maybe the.
35:12
All I know is it looks.
35:14
I think Ariana Grande is in it for some reason.
35:16
I don't understand what's going on.
35:18
All I'm saying is,
35:19
and I will say this,
35:20
just another point on Ben Stiller quickly here,
35:22
Dan.
35:22
He started a soda company,
35:23
as you know,
35:24
uh,
35:24
but,
35:25
uh,
35:25
you know,
35:26
we,
35:26
you and I are perhaps,
35:27
uh,
35:27
America's two most,
35:28
uh,
35:29
Uh,
35:29
efficient and,
35:30
and,
35:30
uh,
35:30
uh,
35:31
prominent soda drinkers,
35:33
uh,
35:33
it's not very good.
35:34
I gotta say,
35:35
Ben,
35:35
you know,
35:36
he's tried to do some weird like natural soda thing.
35:38
It's not very good.
35:39
I would not recommend solar.
35:41
It's not a combo,
35:41
right?
35:42
Anybody,
35:42
sometimes somebody tries the natural and the so like it's good because it's bad,
35:46
all right?
35:46
That's why.
35:47
Thank you.
35:47
Thank you,
35:47
Dan.
35:48
OK,
35:48
uh,
35:48
I am gonna go lower than you on the Chalamet market.
35:51
Will he get to,
35:53
because he's got to get to 5 more games.
35:55
Which means it's got to go 6.
35:57
I,
35:58
I do think it will.
35:59
I kind of still think the Spurs might win the series,
36:01
even though they're down 1-0.
36:03
Will he get to every game though?
36:07
I'm gonna go
36:09
45%,
36:10
45% chance
36:12
that Chalamet will get to at least 10 Knicks playoff games.
36:17
He's got to 5 already.
36:19
Uh,
36:19
are you ready for the answer here,
36:20
Dan?
36:20
Did we predict the prediction correctly?
36:22
The answer actually is,
36:23
oh gosh,
36:24
look at this.
36:24
This is it.
36:25
This,
36:26
this spread is huge.
36:27
There's no,
36:28
must be no,
36:30
nothing in this market.
36:31
Uh,
36:32
yes,
36:32
81,
36:33
no,
36:33
31.
36:34
So that I would say pretty close.
36:36
I mean,
36:36
kind of,
36:37
I guess you could buy it for 81.
36:38
Uh,
36:39
I mean,
36:40
the midpoint between these markets is what,
36:42
uh,
36:42
50,
36:43
25,
36:43
uh,
36:44
uh,
36:44
56.
36:46
So I,
36:47
you know,
36:47
I don't know exactly how to judge that.
36:48
There's just such a wide margin there,
36:50
but I would say
36:52
I don't know who wins that one.
36:53
Let's,
36:53
I'll give that one to you,
36:53
Dan.
36:54
I mean,
36:54
81 is on the board.
36:56
I,
36:56
I was saying yes.
36:57
I was saying he's gonna make it to,
36:59
I mean.
37:00
That's not an '86.
37:01
That's Well,
37:02
I mean,
37:02
81 is where you can buy it,
37:04
but like the,
37:04
the other side,
37:05
there's a,
37:05
it's a massive spread in that market.
37:07
So 81 and 31,
37:08
there's such a wide range,
37:10
it's hard to,
37:10
you know,
37:11
you know,
37:11
that's one of those low liquidity markets.
37:13
So I,
37:14
look,
37:14
this is an experiment.
37:15
We're trying this game out for the first time on the air.
37:17
Uh,
37:18
I'll give you that one.
37:18
Dan wins,
37:19
uh,
37:19
round one.
37:20
Can we write that down?
37:21
Adam,
37:21
keep track of this.
37:22
Dan,
37:22
Dan is up one-nothing
37:23
here in our predict the prediction,
37:25
uh,
37:25
first,
37:26
uh,
37:27
attempt.
37:27
OK.
37:28
Secondly,
37:28
is another basketball-related one.
37:30
This one relates to politics,
37:31
however.
37:31
Will Donald Trump
37:33
attend
37:34
a pro basketball finals game?
37:38
I'll go first on this one since you did the last one.
37:41
My thought,
37:41
my thinking on this one here,
37:42
Dan,
37:42
is that Trump really likes going to sporting events.
37:46
Uh,
37:46
especially when he knows he's going to be warmly received.
37:50
Now,
37:51
that would not be the case at Madison Square Garden right now.
37:55
Uh,
37:55
so I don't think the chances are high.
37:57
It's possible
37:58
if he's gonna go to one,
37:59
it's gonna be in San Antonio.
38:01
But that's a long travel.
38:02
It's still an NBA crowd.
38:04
I don't think it's a Trump crowd.
38:05
It's not college football where I think he'd be very warmly received.
38:08
I think there's a better chance of Trump going to maybe a Stanley Cup game,
38:11
where I think he might be more warmly received.
38:14
I'm gonna go low on this one.
38:15
I'm gonna say,
38:17
12% chance.
38:19
12% chance,
38:20
uh,
38:21
Donald Trump goes to a pro basketball finals game.
38:24
Dan,
38:25
what do you think?
38:26
Well,
38:27
this is very interesting because there's old clips of him in,
38:30
in
38:31
Madison Square Garden and he kind of views himself as a,
38:34
I mean,
38:34
he's a New Yorker.
38:35
I mean,
38:35
that's how he views himself.
38:37
Um,
38:38
I think I'd put it higher at that.
38:40
Um,
38:40
I'm gonna,
38:41
but I would say it's more in the coin flip range,
38:43
so.
38:45
Let me go,
38:46
uh,
38:47
let me go 48.
38:48
48%,
38:50
Dan's prediction,
38:51
uh,
38:52
predicting the prediction markets as we go.
38:55
Will Donald Trump attend a pro basketball finals game?
38:57
What does the market say?
39:01
Another huge spread.
39:03
I don't know what this means.
39:05
Unfortunately,
39:05
we're just in very low liquidity markets here,
39:07
so there's this massive spread.
39:09
I
39:10
Uh,
39:10
I,
39:10
I would go,
39:11
I might go into this market and take,
39:13
take the no position.
39:14
I,
39:14
I'm
39:15
like this is one of those,
39:16
and I,
39:16
I guess we,
39:17
I don't know what we do again,
39:18
uh,
39:18
on this one.
39:19
Let's,
39:19
let's just take the midpoint here.
39:21
Uh,
39:21
84 and 17.
39:22
That's what's uh,
39:23
70 points apart,
39:24
35,
39:24
52.
39:25
Uh,
39:25
you said around 50.
39:26
I'll give you that one again,
39:27
Dan.
39:27
You said right around midpoint.
39:28
We'll give you that one.
39:30
Although maybe I should have got the last one we're doing midpoints,
39:32
but whatever,
39:32
you're up 2-0.
39:33
I,
39:33
I,
39:33
I,
39:34
I think I might go in here though,
39:35
Dan,
39:35
on a no on 17.
39:37
I think I,
39:37
I,
39:37
I,
39:38
It would just be,
39:39
it just,
39:40
I don't know.
39:40
He does not want to get booed.
39:41
Now,
39:42
he,
39:42
if he was gonna go,
39:43
he wouldn't sit courtside,
39:44
right?
39:44
He'd sit up in a box or something.
39:47
Um,
39:47
so maybe he'd had a little bit of separation.
39:49
Maybe it could have gone a little bit higher,
39:50
but Dan,
39:50
we'll give you a 2-nothing lead.
39:53
Uh,
39:53
next up,
39:54
predict the prediction.
39:55
Dan Andros,
39:56
you are up.
39:57
Rotten Tomatoes,
39:58
of course,
39:58
is a,
39:59
uh,
39:59
calculus,
40:00
uh,
40:00
of how,
40:01
of the percentage of critics who think the movie is going,
40:03
it was good.
40:04
OK.
40:04
So that's what a Rotten Tomatoes score is.
40:07
This one is,
40:07
is it going to,
40:08
do 75% of critics think the movie is going to be,
40:11
uh,
40:11
not going to be good,
40:12
because they've seen it.
40:13
Do they think it's good?
40:15
The movie in question here,
40:17
Masters of the Universe,
40:19
apparently a new,
40:20
uh,
40:20
I guess superhero type thing.
40:22
You remember He-Man?
40:24
Fit of nostalgia they're going for.
40:25
Everyone loves Biden the nostalgia.
40:27
Everyone loves the existing IP.
40:29
We,
40:29
God forbid we come up with a,
40:30
with an original story,
40:31
although there are a couple of those out right now.
40:33
Uh,
40:33
will Masters of the universe get over 75% on Rotten Tomatoes?
40:39
Dan,
40:39
predict
40:40
the prediction.
40:41
So this is the critics,
40:42
right?
40:42
This isn't the fan score.
40:44
Correct.
40:44
Critics.
40:46
Will it get above 75%?
40:48
I,
40:49
I gotta say the no is gonna be.
40:52
I'm gonna have to say the no,
40:53
uh,
40:54
uh,
40:54
on this.
40:55
I,
40:55
I don't know.
40:55
This feels like it's gonna be one where fans are like,
40:57
yay,
40:58
I got my fittest nostalgia and all the critics hate it.
41:00
OK,
41:00
so you're going maybe a little under 50% here because we're gonna say,
41:04
are,
41:04
are,
41:05
will this go over what,
41:06
uh,
41:06
go,
41:07
go over 75% or not?
41:08
What do you think the percentage is?
41:10
Uh,
41:10
give me,
41:11
give me 40,
41:12
40,
41:12
40%.
41:13
Interesting.
41:13
That's because you're in my area here.
41:17
Part of me thinks,
41:18
because I watched part of the trailer,
41:20
and I gotta be honest with you,
41:21
I couldn't,
41:21
I,
41:22
I couldn't get through it.
41:23
It,
41:24
to me,
41:25
it's like men in tights and with swords.
41:26
I don't know.
41:27
I mean,
41:27
like,
41:28
I don't.
41:28
Thank you,
41:29
Dan.
41:29
It looked,
41:29
uh,
41:29
to me it looked absolutely terrible.
41:31
Now,
41:31
I
41:31
am a bad
41:32
judge of this at times because I don't like superhero movies.
41:35
I'm not a fan of them.
41:36
I,
41:36
I'd never go see the Marvel movies.
41:38
I don't,
41:39
there's not a lot of interest for me there.
41:41
However,
41:41
can I,
41:42
I,
41:42
I just had another thought.
41:43
I'm sorry to interrupt.
41:44
I just had another thought.
41:46
In the trailer,
41:47
there was no women heroes.
41:49
Now we know the critics,
41:50
like they only want the,
41:52
if you look at all the other superhero movies where they invent a story or something,
41:55
it's,
41:55
it's always.
41:56
Always a woman.
41:56
I mean,
41:57
the South Park,
41:58
put a chick in it,
41:59
um,
42:00
you know,
42:01
um,
42:01
anyway,
42:02
just,
42:02
just throwing that thought out there before you do your pick.
42:04
So critics might
42:05
let me ask Adam.
42:06
Adam,
42:06
do we know if Shera is,
42:07
is in it,
42:08
wasn't it He-Man and Shera?
42:09
Ishira in this movie?
42:12
We
42:13
OK.
42:14
Alison Brie is in it.
42:15
Uh,
42:15
uh,
42:16
he says,
42:16
of course,
42:16
Adam knows.
42:17
Of course,
42:17
Adam knows who's in the He-Man movie,
42:19
obviously,
42:20
um.
42:22
I'm gonna go,
42:22
now Jared Leto's in this movie as well,
42:24
and I feel like people are done with Jared Leto.
42:27
He's Skeletor.
42:29
Uh,
42:29
so
42:29
I'm gonna go lower,
42:31
Dan.
42:31
I'm gonna go,
42:32
uh,
42:33
I'm gonna go,
42:34
uh,
42:34
for a very important reason,
42:36
28%,
42:37
28%.
42:38
Uh,
42:39
let's see,
42:39
they reveal Masters of the Universe Rotten Tomato score above 75.
42:43
What do the markets say?
42:45
They say
42:47
16%,
42:48
but I got massive spreads here.
42:50
What is going on?
42:51
This is one thing I want to tell you about prediction markets right now,
42:53
and I always say this to everybody who's watching.
42:55
They're always like,
42:55
gosh,
42:56
I wish I could have gotten this earlier.
42:57
You are early.
42:59
These markets,
43:00
in 5 years,
43:01
there will be no spread on these markets.
43:03
The,
43:03
the fact,
43:04
and what I mean by spread is
43:06
there are people,
43:06
uh,
43:07
there's a 16% yes and 87% no.
43:10
Um,
43:11
is that the right thing here?
43:12
Uh.
43:13
Oh wait,
43:15
did I read that wrong the whole time?
43:19
Oh,
43:19
I see what we're saying.
43:20
No,
43:21
31.
43:21
0 gosh,
43:21
I was reading those the wrong,
43:22
the wrong way,
43:23
the whole wrong,
43:23
jeez.
43:25
Oh God.
43:28
Hold on,
43:29
let's,
43:29
let's stop for a second.
43:29
I,
43:30
I might need to do that again.
43:31
That,
43:31
that's,
43:31
I totally screwed that up,
43:33
um.
43:35
Uh,
43:36
what were you doing?
43:38
I thought it was,
43:39
I thought there was a massive spread,
43:40
but it's giving me the yes and no price.
43:42
I just misread it
43:43
when I looked at it.
43:44
Yeah,
43:44
I was wondering,
43:44
I thought,
43:45
because the first one I like nailed it.
43:47
Yes,
43:47
you sure,
43:48
you're right,
43:48
you did nail it.
43:49
shit.
43:53
Oh man.
43:56
That's why I was asking.
43:57
I was like,
43:57
am I like completely off base on this?
43:59
I'm like,
43:59
what is going on?
44:00
But when I sent something,
44:01
I only sent the one number
44:02
for that reason,
44:03
because,
44:04
but like then I'm looking at these and I'm seeing also
44:07
84 and 17,
44:08
so that one's fine,
44:10
85.
44:13
I know,
44:15
yeah,
44:16
shit.
44:18
That was good too.
44:18
It was a good segment.
44:19
I feel like maybe we should
44:21
redo it honestly
44:22
because that doesn't make any sense.
44:23
I know that we already,
44:24
I mean we can just,
44:25
I mean,
44:25
I'm just recreate them.
44:27
Yeah,
44:27
yeah,
44:27
we can just recreate it and,
44:28
and
44:29
because it's 81,
44:31
81 and 31 is why I got thrown on that because that is a big spread.
44:35
Can you just clip it though?
44:36
I wonder if you can just.
44:39
I,
44:39
I don't know if it'll make sense without your,
44:41
if you just take your spread comment out of there,
44:43
but that might be too much surgery.
44:45
Yeah,
44:46
uh,
44:46
what do you think,
44:46
Adam?
44:53
Because we have our explanations are all in there and they're fine.
44:58
Yeah.
45:02
But it doesn't make sense though,
45:03
with the
45:04
And just go back through it again.
45:10
Like
45:14
OK,
45:15
uh,
45:16
yeah,
45:17
yeah,
45:17
Dan,
45:18
let me just do this again.
45:19
This is sorry,
45:19
that's my fault.
45:19
That's fine.
45:20
That's fine.
45:20
I can recreate what I was saying.
45:22
So,
45:22
yeah,
45:22
just you,
45:23
you,
45:23
you remember your percentages.
45:24
I'll stick to the ones I have.
45:25
I think I said 80%.
45:26
What did I say on,
45:27
uh,
45:27
the Knicks?
45:27
I said 80%.
45:28
We'll stick.
45:29
Let's just stick to the yes numbers here,
45:31
I think,
45:31
because these are all yeses.
45:33
So
45:33
we'll just stick to whatever's on that yes side
45:36
as the rate the win.
45:37
OK.
45:38
All right,
45:38
so let's do this,
45:39
uh,
45:39
yeah,
45:39
let's do it one more time.
45:40
Sorry guys,
45:41
uh,
45:41
my fault,
45:41
damn it.
45:45
Yeah,
45:45
I think that's what we should do in the future,
45:46
just to keep it simple,
45:47
but that's totally my fault.
45:49
I just misread it.
45:51
OK,
45:52
let me,
45:52
uh,
45:53
all right,
45:53
we'll do this again.
45:53
I'll try to move forward real quick through it quickly.
45:59
I turned the air conditioner on.
46:07
What did I,
46:08
what did I,
46:08
can you just tell me what I guessed again?
46:10
I guessed 85 on the Knicks.
46:13
48
46:15
48 on the on the next one,
46:16
OK.
46:16
And then um
46:18
And then I was,
46:19
I think I was,
46:20
you said 40,
46:21
40 for Masters of the Universe,
46:22
yeah.
46:23
I've got them all written down here,
46:24
so,
46:25
but I mean,
46:25
if you change them on the fly,
46:26
then I can always just change them.
46:29
I'll suddenly be right.
46:31
Well,
46:31
you can,
46:32
yeah,
46:32
you,
46:32
you were.
46:33
All right.
46:34
All right,
46:34
one more time.
46:35
Sorry about that,
46:35
guys.
46:38
OK.
46:42
OK,
46:42
good.
46:44
I actually have a relatively light day myself today.
46:47
Hopefully,
46:47
Dan,
46:47
uh,
46:48
not too bad for you.
46:51
That's all right.
47:21
All right,
47:21
predict the prediction
47:22
is where we predict what
47:25
the prediction markets believe
47:27
about a bunch of different questions
47:30
without looking at the,
47:31
the markets at all.
47:32
And this is a good little,
47:32
uh,
47:33
a good little test for you.
47:34
When you're thinking about going into a market,
47:36
try to answer the question in your mind,
47:39
what I think this percentage will be before you
47:41
look at the percentage because if they're different,
47:43
Either you're just very ill-informed and maybe the market's right,
47:47
or maybe there you found a little market efficiency,
47:49
right?
47:49
Maybe you found some value
47:51
in a market.
47:51
If you think,
47:52
uh,
47:52
AOC's got a 40% chance to win,
47:55
uh,
47:55
the presidency in 2028,
47:57
uh,
47:58
and then you look at her market and she's at like 9%.
48:01
Well,
48:01
you're getting a value,
48:02
right,
48:02
for what you believe and that's kind of a way that we,
48:04
we kind of do this behind the scenes a lot and just to test each other.
48:08
And I think it's a fun way that we can
48:09
kind of go through a bunch of different markets here.
48:11
I want to bring in Dan Andros who uh is at Dan Andros on Twitter.
48:15
Uh,
48:15
Dan,
48:16
you know,
48:16
these things,
48:17
I feel like
48:18
we,
48:18
we,
48:18
we make ourselves a little vulnerable here.
48:20
I don't know.
48:21
I mean,
48:21
I have no idea what these markets are.
48:23
The way this works is Adam has
48:26
picked a bunch of different questions
48:27
and he has,
48:28
uh,
48:29
basically.
48:30
You know,
48:31
whited out the actual percentage.
48:33
We will try to guess what the percentage is
48:35
just off the top of our heads with giving ourselves a little bit of a gut check,
48:39
I guess,
48:39
Dan,
48:40
before you go into any market.
48:41
Always a good idea.
48:42
Yeah,
48:42
and I'll just blame,
48:43
listen,
48:43
ahead of time,
48:44
I,
48:44
anything I'm way off on,
48:45
I'm just gonna blame the market for being off.
48:47
I'm just gonna say they're off and uh I'm right.
48:50
So I,
48:50
I win either way here.
48:51
Yes.
48:52
You can know,
48:53
my understanding is in the AI era,
48:54
you could always always blame your computer.
48:56
That's,
48:56
uh,
48:57
that's,
48:57
it's always OK to do.
48:59
OK,
48:59
um,
49:00
I want to start with something that I know you're passionate about.
49:02
You're a big basketball fan,
49:03
big Celtics fan.
49:04
I know that you do not want to see the New York Knicks win a championship.
49:08
Understand that.
49:09
Uh,
49:09
you know,
49:10
I honestly watched the game last night and I was like,
49:12
I hope both of these teams lose.
49:14
Is that possible?
49:15
You know,
49:15
Wemy with his nineteen-foot arms just like falling
49:18
sideways and throwing the ball at the rim.
49:20
You,
49:20
you know,
49:20
you've got,
49:21
I,
49:21
I,
49:21
there's outside of Brunson,
49:23
I don't know if there's anybody on the Knicks that I actually like.
49:26
I,
49:26
I don't really like either of these teams,
49:28
frankly,
49:28
but that's just,
49:29
uh,
49:29
that's just me.
49:30
You,
49:30
however,
49:31
have taken a,
49:32
uh,
49:32
I,
49:32
I,
49:32
I know I've talked to you about this a little bit off the air.
49:34
A real passion
49:35
at noticing how annoying the Knicks celebrity fans
49:39
are.
49:40
It's torture.
49:41
It's torture because it's like they don't care,
49:44
and maybe they do to some extent.
49:46
Spike Lee's always there,
49:47
but these celebrities show up,
49:49
Ben Stiller shows up.
49:51
I mean,
49:51
he's Mr.
49:52
Liberalal guy,
49:53
and yet he's hogging the front row
49:56
all the time,
49:57
every game,
49:57
every big game.
49:59
This.
50:00
Do you have anything to do with your life other than go to games?
50:03
I mean,
50:03
it's so ridiculous at this point.
50:05
And then they get there and they're acting like,
50:07
they're acting like they're this big fraternity that's just been,
50:10
You know,
50:11
they,
50:11
they're into something and it's so important and they're like,
50:13
guys,
50:14
just
50:15
stop it.
50:15
Just stop it.
50:16
All of you,
50:16
go home.
50:17
Two things.
50:17
I,
50:17
I would rather see Ben Stiller at a Knicks game than another Fockers sequel,
50:21
which apparently he's done.
50:22
And,
50:22
uh,
50:23
that is not something any of us needed.
50:25
That's number one.
50:26
Number 2 is,
50:27
where were you,
50:29
you know,
50:29
in,
50:29
I don't know,
50:30
2009.
50:32
Where were you in 2015?
50:34
If you were there.
50:36
You know,
50:36
you mentioned Spike Lee.
50:37
I'm not a Spike Lee fan.
50:38
OK,
50:38
but he obviously,
50:39
he was showing up to those games anyway,
50:41
right?
50:41
A lot of these people are just kind of showing up,
50:43
uh,
50:44
you know,
50:44
when the Knicks are good,
50:46
and I get it.
50:46
Look,
50:47
if I were,
50:47
you know,
50:48
massive,
50:48
so like,
50:48
I have all this money,
50:49
I would probably go to as many games as I could if I was,
50:51
you know,
50:52
a fan of the Knicks.
50:53
But it is,
50:53
it does seem a little hollow and a little more of like,
50:56
I want to be seen at the game rather than I'm a massive fan.
50:59
Yes,
51:00
they're never in the 7th row.
51:02
They're always in the 1st row.
51:04
I mean,
51:04
this doesn't seem like a very equality type vibe here,
51:07
Stu.
51:08
I mean,
51:08
I don't know.
51:08
Why aren't they saying,
51:09
why aren't they giving this to the,
51:11
the,
51:12
you know,
51:12
the,
51:13
the re,
51:13
the peasants in our society?
51:14
There's not some regular Knicks fans out there.
51:17
We used to work in New York City and I'd walk
51:19
by Madison Square Garden every day and there were all these
51:22
homeless people with Knicks gear on some of them.
51:25
Ben Stiller's never given one of them a ticket.
51:28
I don't know.
51:29
I'm just saying.
51:30
It's a good point.
51:31
Uh,
51:31
but I don't know,
51:32
but I'm gonna,
51:33
I like to think it is.
51:34
Well,
51:34
this is related to this question here,
51:35
Dan,
51:36
because I know you're passionate about it.
51:37
How many Knicks games
51:39
in the playoffs will Timothy Chalamet
51:42
attend?
51:43
He's kind of the new,
51:44
uh,
51:44
the new celeb on the block at the Knicks games.
51:47
Now,
51:47
to give you a little context here,
51:48
the number we're looking at
51:49
is at least 10.
51:51
So far,
51:52
he has attended 5.
51:54
So he would have to attend 5 more games in the finals
51:57
to be,
51:58
um,
51:59
uh,
51:59
a,
51:59
uh,
52:00
to,
52:00
to qualify for this contract.
52:02
So what we're gonna do is guess what the yes percentage is here.
52:06
Will Timothy Chalamet get to 10%?
52:07
He'd have to,
52:08
uh,
52:08
to attend 5 more games in the finals.
52:11
Why don't you go first here,
52:11
Dan?
52:12
Uh,
52:12
will he attend up to 10 games?
52:14
Well,
52:15
I think that at this point,
52:16
the question is that it's the finals and like you said,
52:18
they want to be seen,
52:19
that you're not gonna be more seen than here in the finals.
52:23
Uh,
52:23
so I think they absolutely,
52:25
as long as he's not filming some,
52:27
you know,
52:27
ridiculous movie that I don't care about and won't see,
52:30
uh.
52:31
Then he's gonna try to go to all of them in my mind.
52:34
It's just a matter of does it make it,
52:35
the series make it long enough for the required amount of games,
52:39
which I guess is 6.
52:41
so,
52:42
uh,
52:43
they've already done 1,
52:44
the Spurs would just have to win at least 2 at this point.
52:47
So,
52:48
I,
52:49
well,
52:49
yeah,
52:50
it,
52:50
well,
52:51
actually,
52:51
they could win 4 in a row and then it would go 5,
52:53
so that is possible too.
52:54
So,
52:55
uh,
52:55
but it has to go 6,
52:56
so I won't put it at 100,
52:58
I'll go 85.
53:00
85% chance for Chalamet to get to all of them.
53:02
That's interesting.
53:02
I,
53:03
cause I thought the same thing.
53:04
There's only,
53:05
I mean,
53:05
it could be if the game,
53:06
if the series goes 6 games,
53:09
uh,
53:09
there's only 5 games left,
53:10
right?
53:11
So he'd have to go to all of them.
53:13
Uh,
53:14
obviously,
53:14
it goes to 7,
53:15
he could miss 1 in theory.
53:17
He does seem like,
53:18
I will say Chalamet does seem like a legitimate fan of the Knicks.
53:21
It's not,
53:21
it doesn't seem like a completely,
53:22
like,
53:22
you know,
53:23
he's just some rando Kardashian showing up to a game or whatever.
53:26
He does seem like he's a real basketball fan and has cared about this for a while.
53:30
Uh,
53:31
but still,
53:31
I feel like
53:32
there's a good chance he's gonna miss a game or two.
53:36
So I'm gonna go,
53:37
I'll go 45% chance,
53:39
45% chance,
53:40
uh,
53:41
it,
53:41
we need to predict the prediction.
53:42
What do the prediction markets say?
53:44
How many Knicks games will Timothy Chalamet attend?
53:47
Will it be at least 10?
53:48
The markets say.
53:51
81.
53:52
Wow,
53:52
81% chance,
53:54
uh,
53:54
Dan,
53:55
with the,
53:56
uh,
53:56
win,
53:57
you win it,
53:57
you win number one.
53:58
You know the markets are smart this time.
54:01
Yeah,
54:01
they're OK,
54:02
the markets are not dumb this time,
54:03
everybody.
54:04
Uh,
54:04
there you go.
54:04
Dan Andres,
54:05
you're up 1 to 0 here.
54:07
Let's go to another one.
54:08
This is another one a little related to basketball but also politics.
54:11
Will Donald Trump attend a pro basketball finals
54:15
game?
54:16
Uh,
54:17
this is an interesting one because,
54:19
and I'll go first on this one since you went first in the first round.
54:21
I,
54:21
I,
54:22
I feel like.
54:24
Donald Trump really likes going
54:26
to games in,
54:27
in,
54:28
uh,
54:28
you know,
54:28
stadium events like this
54:30
when he's gonna be well received.
54:31
Like college football championship.
54:32
He's gonna be there because the crowd's gonna go crazy for him.
54:35
I would say even a hockey Stanley Cup Finals game,
54:37
I think is a really good chance.
54:39
Him going to Madison Square Garden to an NBA,
54:42
the most liberal of all the sports audiences
54:45
in the most liberal city maybe out there,
54:48
it doesn't strike me
54:50
as something that I think he will do.
54:53
Uh,
54:54
obviously,
54:54
he also has other stuff going on,
54:56
you know,
54:56
so I'm gonna go low.
54:58
I'm gonna go low on this one.
54:59
I'm gonna go
55:01
12%,
55:02
12% chance Donald Trump attends a pro basketball finals game.
55:06
What do you think?
55:07
I predict the prediction,
55:08
Dan?
55:09
I,
55:09
I feel like I'm a,
55:10
I'm a little higher here,
55:11
and I,
55:12
and I think
55:13
while he does not want to be booed,
55:15
he,
55:15
he's not that,
55:16
you know,
55:17
type,
55:17
like you said,
55:18
he wants the warm reception.
55:19
I agree with that.
55:20
Um,
55:21
but
55:21
he's a New York guy.
55:23
Like this is,
55:24
there's all those old
55:25
old clips of him around.
55:26
Actually,
55:27
out of,
55:27
you know,
55:27
they're making fun of,
55:28
uh,
55:28
Hochel because she was like,
55:30
oh,
55:30
what does he know about the Knicks?
55:31
And like,
55:31
literally there's video of Donald Trump like
55:34
being interviewed on the floor of a Knicks game and Charles
55:36
Oakley's like his best friend and like all this stuff.
55:39
Uh,
55:40
so I think he views himself as a New York guy,
55:41
so I feel like,
55:43
um,
55:44
It's a mix here,
55:45
so I'm in the coin flip range.
55:47
I'm gonna go 48.4,
55:48
OK,
55:48
48% chance.
55:50
So let's see what they predict the prediction markets say.
55:53
Will Donald Trump attend a pro basketball finals game?
55:57
The answer is.
56:00
84%.
56:02
A lot higher than I thought.
56:04
Wow,
56:04
84.
56:06
That's incredible.
56:07
84% chance,
56:08
uh,
56:09
that he will,
56:10
uh,
56:11
wow,
56:11
I'm,
56:11
I'm stunned by that.
56:12
I
56:13
look,
56:14
I have to hold myself to this here.
56:16
I have to go into this market,
56:17
I think.
56:17
If I,
56:17
am I at 12% and the answer is 84%,
56:20
I,
56:20
I'm either an idiot completely,
56:21
which is very possible.
56:23
Is it possible?
56:24
Do we have any news?
56:25
Can we search real quick?
56:25
Has Donald Trump announced he's going to a game?
56:28
Like,
56:28
uh,
56:29
is this,
56:29
this,
56:29
this would be information I would need,
56:31
right,
56:31
for this wars going on.
56:33
I,
56:33
you know,
56:33
it's doesn't seem like that big of a mortal lock here,
56:36
but yeah,
56:37
wow,
56:37
that's,
56:37
uh,
56:37
that one's surprising to me,
56:38
I will say,
56:39
uh,
56:39
so I will,
56:40
uh,
56:40
definitely give you that one,
56:41
even though you missed by a lot too.
56:43
We both are way off on that market.
56:44
I mean,
56:45
I,
56:45
I got a Price is right situation kind of going on there in reverse.
56:48
Adam has an update on this market.
56:49
Go ahead.
56:52
Oh,
56:53
come on.
56:55
You can't do that to us.
56:57
I just got this information from Adam.
56:59
Uh,
56:59
4 hours ago,
57:00
Donald Trump says he's going to attend a game.
57:04
Sources say.
57:06
All right,
57:07
well,
57:07
I'll likely get ripped off on that.
57:09
I,
57:09
I,
57:09
I maybe,
57:10
maybe these
57:11
sources are just trying to move markets.
57:14
I don't know.
57:15
I'm just saying
57:16
very interesting,
57:17
Dan.
57:17
That,
57:17
that's a shady
57:19
shenanigans going on here,
57:20
very shady shenanigans.
57:22
I don't know about that one.
57:22
I feel like I want to throw that one out,
57:24
but that's mostly because I lost.
57:25
OK,
57:26
next up.
57:28
We go to the Rotten Tomatoes universe.
57:29
If you know Rotten Tomatoes,
57:30
we talked to Christian Toto about this a few weeks ago.
57:32
This is a critics score,
57:34
not the audience score,
57:35
the critics score.
57:36
Uh,
57:36
and basically what it means is what percentage
57:38
of critics that write reviews on this movie
57:42
will say it's good?
57:43
The number we're talking about here is 75%.
57:46
Will 75% of critics say this movie is good and the movie we're discussing.
57:51
Masters of the Universe,
57:53
a
57:54
real life action He-Man movie.
57:58
Uh,
57:59
another fit of nostalgia here,
58:00
Stu.
58:01
This is,
58:01
uh,
58:01
you know,
58:02
just proving once again we have no original ideas whatsoever.
58:06
We're pulling
58:07
from a 1984 cartoon.
58:09
Making it real-life action.
58:11
And what else will Gen X go out and see and
58:13
pay money for that they liked back when they were kids?
58:16
It's the one way we get it,
58:17
I feel,
58:17
I feel like we're respected in this society as Gen Xers,
58:19
Dan.
58:19
Everyone else,
58:20
we get ignored everywhere else,
58:21
but let's talk,
58:22
when it comes to nostalgia,
58:23
they'll throw,
58:23
they'll,
58:24
they'll throw a slop at us all day to go see,
58:26
uh,
58:27
nostalgia slop,
58:28
nostalgia slop.
58:29
I happened to see,
58:30
uh,
58:31
uh,
58:31
I started,
58:32
I pressed play.
58:33
On my computer on YouTube to watch the Masters of the Universe trailer,
58:36
and I will be honest with you,
58:37
I didn't even get through it.
58:39
To me,
58:39
it seemed like men in tights with swords.
58:42
Yeah,
58:42
it's,
58:43
you know,
58:44
uh,
58:44
that's,
58:45
and that's not something you want.
58:46
OK,
58:46
so
58:47
Dan.
58:49
What,
58:49
predict the prediction here.
58:51
What,
58:51
uh,
58:52
what are the chances
58:53
the Rotten Tomato score for Masters of the Universe is above 75.
58:57
What do you think?
58:58
OK,
58:59
so,
59:00
I feel like because of the fit of nostalgia thing,
59:04
the critics are gonna wanna feel hoity-toity on it.
59:06
They're not gonna,
59:07
you know,
59:08
I feel like this is one of those ones that the crowds
59:10
are gonna go high and the critics maybe not so much,
59:13
so.
59:14
Um,
59:15
I'm gonna go,
59:15
I'm gonna land around the 40% range here,
59:18
40% chance it goes above 75% on the Rotten Tomatoes score.
59:21
I,
59:22
uh,
59:23
I'm gonna go more negative than you on this one,
59:25
Dan,
59:26
uh,
59:26
because
59:27
first of all,
59:27
Jared Leto's in it.
59:28
I feel like the world has turned against him.
59:30
He's Skeletor in the movie.
59:32
I don't,
59:32
I,
59:32
he's had his day.
59:33
I think that's over.
59:35
Uh,
59:35
Master of the Universe,
59:36
I don't even think is a,
59:37
a,
59:37
a really beloved.
59:39
Like it's not like,
59:40
you know,
59:40
this isn't Star Wars we're talking about.
59:42
This was like a,
59:42
you know,
59:42
it was,
59:43
it was a,
59:43
it was a Saturday cartoon,
59:44
uh,
59:45
you know,
59:45
people kind of remember it.
59:46
Um,
59:47
I don't know if Shira is in the movie because I think Shira was the female He-Man,
59:51
if I remember right,
59:52
uh,
59:53
which may,
59:53
and that's,
59:55
yeah,
59:55
because all the critics now that,
59:56
you know,
59:56
a lot,
59:57
a lot of critics maybe are on the woke side of things.
59:59
And so
1:00:00
if you notice now all these hero movies.
1:00:02
The hero is a woman.
1:00:04
It's like the South Park thing.
1:00:05
Put a chick in it,
1:00:06
you know,
1:00:06
and,
1:00:07
um,
1:00:07
I think there's that going on.
1:00:09
So maybe the critics will be like,
1:00:10
I don't know,
1:00:11
man,
1:00:11
it's another guy hero,
1:00:12
and they'll be mad about it.
1:00:14
Interesting.
1:00:14
We don't want
1:00:15
strong muscular men as heroes.
1:00:17
That would be terrible masculinity.
1:00:19
Yeah.
1:00:19
I'm gonna go lower than you.
1:00:20
I'm gonna go 28% chance this gets above 75%.
1:00:23
And honestly,
1:00:24
I feel like that's high.
1:00:25
Uh,
1:00:25
let's see,
1:00:26
uh,
1:00:26
let's reveal here for predict the prediction.
1:00:28
Masters of the universe,
1:00:29
Rotten Tomatoes score,
1:00:29
will it be above 75?
1:00:31
The markets say.
1:00:33
16% chance.
1:00:35
OK,
1:00:36
so
1:00:36
I'm gonna get that one.
1:00:37
I respect the market on that one.
1:00:38
They were,
1:00:39
they were just braver than me on that pick.
1:00:41
I will say I'm,
1:00:42
I'm still interested,
1:00:43
even though my,
1:00:44
my number was high.
1:00:45
I'm still interested in no on that one because
1:00:47
that just does not like just is not good.
1:00:49
OK,
1:00:49
a few more markets to go here,
1:00:50
Dan,
1:00:51
uh,
1:00:51
let's go.
1:00:52
Gas prices,
1:00:53
as you know,
1:00:54
they've been high.
1:00:54
Now this is an interesting one because I feel like I'm
1:00:56
at a little bit of a deficit on this one.
1:00:58
Uh,
1:00:58
because,
1:00:59
I,
1:00:59
you know,
1:00:59
as you know,
1:00:59
I,
1:01:00
I got a Tesla,
1:01:01
so now I'm not buying gas anymore.
1:01:02
I haven't bought gas in a while,
1:01:04
but.
1:01:05
The question is your electric bill.
1:01:07
The electric bill is a little higher than before,
1:01:09
but I think I'm still saving money on this one right now.
1:01:12
I don't know how long that will last,
1:01:13
uh,
1:01:14
but I,
1:01:14
I will say if you're gonna,
1:01:15
if you've wanted to pick a time to get an electric car,
1:01:18
this was a good one.
1:01:19
I will say,
1:01:20
uh,
1:01:21
because my wife has to fill her tank up,
1:01:22
and that's,
1:01:23
that does not go well.
1:01:24
US gas prices this week,
1:01:25
will they get above $4.14?
1:01:29
I honestly have no idea.
1:01:30
I am first on this one,
1:01:31
right?
1:01:32
Not already.
1:01:33
I know.
1:01:33
I was gonna say already,
1:01:34
uh.
1:01:36
I mean,
1:01:36
because there's a good
1:01:37
point here that it could already be above 414.
1:01:40
I assume Adam wouldn't pull a market that already resolved one way or another,
1:01:44
um,
1:01:44
but I will say,
1:01:46
uh,
1:01:46
well,
1:01:46
we gotta look at what it is.
1:01:47
We gotta actually see what the actual gas price average is.
1:01:50
Well,
1:01:51
but if it's 416 already,
1:01:52
then you're gonna know it's 100%.
1:01:54
This,
1:01:54
we might have to wipe this market off.
1:01:56
But yeah,
1:01:56
give me,
1:01:56
we might have to.
1:01:57
Why don't you look at the,
1:01:58
shouldn't we know the starting point?
1:02:00
I mean,
1:02:00
I think why would it be a market if it's over already.
1:02:03
The one
1:02:04
buying gas on a day to day basis,
1:02:05
Dan,
1:02:06
I'm not.
1:02:06
So you,
1:02:07
I feel like you should have a good sense.
1:02:09
Yeah,
1:02:09
yes,
1:02:09
I'm gonna be,
1:02:10
give it,
1:02:10
give it $95 then because I'm already paying way more than that.
1:02:14
So,
1:02:14
and I know it's like that everywhere.
1:02:16
So give me $95.
1:02:17
Now I feel like I'm in Texas.
1:02:18
I've been in Texas and Oklahoma the last couple of weeks,
1:02:21
where it's like the cheapest gas in America.
1:02:23
Even there,
1:02:24
it's,
1:02:25
uh,
1:02:25
pretty close
1:02:26
to,
1:02:27
uh,
1:02:28
to $4 or more per gallon.
1:02:31
Uh,
1:02:31
I will say the correct number is,
1:02:33
you said 95.
1:02:34
I will go,
1:02:35
I'll go 75% chance.
1:02:37
I'm really guessing on this one.
1:02:38
I don't know anymore.
1:02:39
Uh,
1:02:39
let's see
1:02:40
the market,
1:02:41
uh,
1:02:41
what the market says.
1:02:42
Predict the prediction.
1:02:43
What do the markets say US gas prices above 414% this week.
1:02:45
Answer is.
1:02:48
97%
1:02:50
Dan with a win.
1:02:51
I don't know.
1:02:52
I feel like I got,
1:02:53
I got hosed on that market.
1:02:54
I got hosed on it.
1:02:56
This is because Adam,
1:02:57
I,
1:02:57
I did something wrong to Adam at some point.
1:02:59
Yeah,
1:03:00
I was feeling the market pain.
1:03:01
Stu is just,
1:03:02
uh,
1:03:02
obviously above all the gas thing,
1:03:04
gas price thing.
1:03:05
So I don't know.
1:03:05
Did I make fun of Blink 182,
1:03:07
Adam?
1:03:07
What did I do?
1:03:09
He's so much,
1:03:09
he says so many things.
1:03:10
OK.
1:03:11
Next up,
1:03:11
Dan,
1:03:12
a couple more real quick before we get out of here.
1:03:13
Uh,
1:03:14
this is another,
1:03:15
um,
1:03:15
movie-related one.
1:03:17
Who will be the next James Bond?
1:03:19
This is an interesting,
1:03:19
and the,
1:03:20
and the one we're asking about here is Tom Holland.
1:03:23
Now,
1:03:23
I could not list one thing that Tom Holland is in.
1:03:26
Someone told me it's Spider-Man.
1:03:27
He was a Spider-Man guy.
1:03:29
Um,
1:03:29
OK,
1:03:30
so I don't know.
1:03:31
Uh,
1:03:31
I don't know much about Tom Holland.
1:03:32
I will,
1:03:33
uh,
1:03:33
guess on this one.
1:03:34
I'm gonna guess pretty low.
1:03:35
He looks,
1:03:36
I mean,
1:03:36
just looking at the picture of him there,
1:03:38
not a huge guy.
1:03:39
Now,
1:03:39
now Daniel Craig was not a big guy either.
1:03:41
He's pretty short,
1:03:41
wasn't he?
1:03:42
Daniel Craig's like a pretty short guy,
1:03:44
but he doesn't necessarily come off that way.
1:03:46
Uh,
1:03:46
I will go but Daniel Craig,
1:03:48
looked,
1:03:48
I'm sorry,
1:03:48
go ahead,
1:03:49
go ahead.
1:03:49
No,
1:03:49
no,
1:03:49
I don't wanna interrupt.
1:03:50
You,
1:03:50
you,
1:03:51
you was just gonna say,
1:03:52
yeah,
1:03:53
yeah,
1:03:53
I was just gonna say Daniel Craig looks like a guy who
1:03:56
could kill you with his bare hands.
1:03:57
Like he's just sitting there.
1:03:59
Like he just has that look,
1:04:00
like,
1:04:00
you know,
1:04:00
he's some CIA chief operative guy that's going around and he could,
1:04:04
he has the look.
1:04:05
Tom Holland.
1:04:07
It just looks like a kid who,
1:04:09
you know,
1:04:10
I,
1:04:10
I don't know,
1:04:11
like one of these guys that still looks like he's 14.
1:04:14
He looks like a little,
1:04:15
like a Timothy Chalamet,
1:04:16
right?
1:04:17
And like it just does not strike me as the vibe
1:04:20
for James Bond.
1:04:21
I'm gonna go low on this one.
1:04:22
I'm gonna go,
1:04:23
I'm gonna go
1:04:25
13%,
1:04:26
13% chance
1:04:27
Tom Holland
1:04:28
is the next James Bond.
1:04:30
I'm in your zone.
1:04:31
I mean,
1:04:31
maybe I'll just have to,
1:04:32
again,
1:04:33
Price is right you here just to,
1:04:35
you know,
1:04:35
you'll get one side or the other.
1:04:36
I'd be,
1:04:37
yeah,
1:04:37
exactly.
1:04:37
I'll,
1:04:38
I'll go 20.
1:04:38
I'll go 2 goes 20%.
1:04:41
All right,
1:04:41
predict the prediction.
1:04:42
Who will be the next James Bond?
1:04:43
Will it be Tom Holland,
1:04:45
the markets say?
1:04:47
5%.
1:04:49
Wow,
1:04:49
they,
1:04:50
they do not buy it at all.
1:04:52
Uh,
1:04:52
I will get the win on that.
1:04:54
Uh,
1:04:54
push us to 3 to 2.
1:04:56
Now for some reason I picked.
1:04:59
Six markets here,
1:05:00
which is gonna mean that if I win this one,
1:05:01
we just tie.
1:05:02
Again,
1:05:02
we're working on this game.
1:05:03
I don't know what that means.
1:05:04
Um,
1:05:05
OK,
1:05:05
so this is an interesting one,
1:05:06
Dan.
1:05:07
Uh,
1:05:07
and I,
1:05:07
I,
1:05:08
I feel like you have a take on this.
1:05:10
Will the United States confirm
1:05:12
that aliens exist
1:05:15
before the end of Donald Trump's term,
1:05:17
which is January 20th,
1:05:18
2029.
1:05:19
So a long-term market here.
1:05:20
You have to look forward a few years.
1:05:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before January 20th,
1:05:26
2029?
1:05:26
Dan,
1:05:27
why don't you go first on this one?
1:05:28
OK,
1:05:29
so there's
1:05:30
Uh,
1:05:31
there's been a news on this,
1:05:33
you know,
1:05:33
they've been releasing the,
1:05:34
uh,
1:05:35
the alien files.
1:05:36
They,
1:05:36
they released at least one batch of those,
1:05:38
and,
1:05:39
you know,
1:05:39
it was a lot of stuff that people have
1:05:41
been through before,
1:05:42
just some more details.
1:05:42
So
1:05:43
there's a lot of excitement about this possibly happening from people,
1:05:47
the conspiracy theorists,
1:05:48
they're all into this.
1:05:49
So they're very much convinced this is gonna happen.
1:05:51
All I have to say,
1:05:52
there's been a surge,
1:05:53
I think lately on that.
1:05:54
I haven't looked at it in a while,
1:05:56
uh.
1:05:58
I'm gonna put it at like something higher than you would think.
1:06:02
Like a normal person would think,
1:06:03
you know,
1:06:04
aliens,
1:06:05
like they think of the 1% is not happening.
1:06:08
But I think more people are like,
1:06:09
because of all this thinking like,
1:06:10
it could.
1:06:12
So
1:06:12
I'm gonna put it at 18,
1:06:14
18%.
1:06:16
Wow,
1:06:16
interesting,
1:06:17
um.
1:06:19
Here's the thing about this market,
1:06:20
which is weird,
1:06:21
is that it's multiple years.
1:06:23
So
1:06:24
it's tough to,
1:06:25
like,
1:06:25
you know,
1:06:26
when,
1:06:26
when you're thinking about this,
1:06:27
this is not,
1:06:28
I mean,
1:06:28
it's not like,
1:06:29
hey,
1:06:29
there's good weather for aliens this week,
1:06:31
you know what I mean?
1:06:31
Like it's,
1:06:31
it's,
1:06:32
it's freaking aliens.
1:06:33
I'm saying as an investment though,
1:06:35
right,
1:06:35
like if you think there's,
1:06:36
there's no,
1:06:36
there's no chance,
1:06:37
let's just say you no chance aliens will exist,
1:06:39
you're completely,
1:06:40
uh,
1:06:40
uh,
1:06:41
you know,
1:06:41
convinced by that,
1:06:42
which is,
1:06:42
you know,
1:06:43
a relatively rational position.
1:06:45
Um,
1:06:45
but if you take no,
1:06:46
your max gain is,
1:06:48
you know,
1:06:48
it's 3 years,
1:06:49
so your max gain is what,
1:06:50
6% a year.
1:06:50
So it's not like a great investment when it comes to a prediction market.
1:06:54
That being said,
1:06:54
I feel like
1:06:55
I,
1:06:56
I'll tell you what I would pay for this,
1:06:57
which would be almost nothing.
1:06:59
I would probably pay,
1:07:00
because even if they do exist and we have evidence of it,
1:07:03
which are two major steps,
1:07:04
I don't think the government is telling us.
1:07:06
Uh,
1:07:07
even Donald Trump,
1:07:08
who really likes to blurt things out,
1:07:10
I don't think he would,
1:07:10
he would say this.
1:07:11
I'm gonna go lower,
1:07:12
I'm gonna go
1:07:13
8%.
1:07:14
I would not go with this at all.
1:07:16
Uh,
1:07:16
let's get our final predicted prediction of the day.
1:07:18
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before January 20th,
1:07:22
2029?
1:07:23
What do the markets say?
1:07:25
30,
1:07:26
holy crap,
1:07:27
31%.
1:07:29
I told you it's gonna be higher than you thought.
1:07:31
I mean,
1:07:31
people are,
1:07:32
they,
1:07:32
they believe it's gonna happen.
1:07:34
Wow,
1:07:34
Dan,
1:07:35
you were right on that again.
1:07:36
I gotta say,
1:07:36
Dan wins the,
1:07:37
uh,
1:07:37
wins the predict the prediction,
1:07:39
uh,
1:07:39
contest of the day.
1:07:41
Wow,
1:07:41
31% chance,
1:07:43
gosh.
1:07:44
I don't know.
1:07:44
See,
1:07:45
again,
1:07:45
that's a multiple-year market.
1:07:46
I don't love it as an investment,
1:07:47
but that is a fascinating insight
1:07:49
on where we are and where our heads are,
1:07:51
uh,
1:07:51
as you in for no then?
1:07:52
Are you in for the no?
1:07:54
I,
1:07:54
I,
1:07:54
I,
1:07:54
I,
1:07:54
I'm,
1:07:55
I'd consider it,
1:07:56
but
1:07:56
I don't like the 3-year market part of it
1:07:58
because my,
1:07:58
my main,
1:07:59
my gain there is 10% a year.
1:08:01
I can do better than 10% a year
1:08:03
on a bunch of different markets,
1:08:04
so
1:08:04
I probably will not go into that market,
1:08:06
but there are a few in here that I will dive into and we'll keep you updated on it if I do.
1:08:10
Uh,
1:08:10
Dan Andros,
1:08:10
uh,
1:08:11
at Dan Andros
1:08:12
on the Twitters,
1:08:13
uh,
1:08:14
you know,
1:08:14
I really appreciate you coming on and,
1:08:16
and beating me in my own stupid game.
1:08:18
Yeah,
1:08:18
I,
1:08:19
I mean,
1:08:19
do I retire now?
1:08:20
I mean,
1:08:21
I just,
1:08:21
maybe I quit while I'm ahead.
1:08:22
Do I get a trophy or something?
1:08:24
I don't know.
1:08:24
I'm on poly market now.
1:08:25
Will Dan Andrews retire from predict the prediction?
1:08:27
Uh,
1:08:28
it's at 14%,
1:08:29
so you're,
1:08:29
you should be fine for now.
1:08:31
Dan,
1:08:31
uh,
1:08:31
thanks so much for coming back on the program.
1:08:32
Appreciate it.
1:08:33
All right,
1:08:33
thanks,
1:08:34
dude.
1:08:34
All right,
1:08:34
thanks for joining us on Predictable.
1:08:35
Uh,
1:08:36
that's the show for today.
1:08:37
We've got more election stuff coming up next week just to give you a quick preview.
1:08:40
Probably Monday we'll go through a bunch of the other markets.
1:08:42
I'll update you on California.
1:08:44
I'll update you,
1:08:45
uh,
1:08:45
on uh what I'm thinking on South Carolina,
1:08:47
which is the big one we featured today.
1:08:49
Uh,
1:08:49
I'll go through some of the other elections as well on Monday.
1:08:52
Then Tuesday,
1:08:52
we'll have a live stream for you,
1:08:53
uh,
1:08:54
once again.
1:08:54
This has been,
1:08:55
you know,
1:08:55
really successful for us so far.
1:08:57
Uh,
1:08:58
people really like it.
1:08:58
We'll give you maybe some sort of preview throughout
1:09:00
the day if there's anything we're thinking about.
1:09:02
And then give you live streams as the results come out
1:09:04
from these markets and we'll cover them in real time.
1:09:07
This has happened a bunch of different times where we have caught market movers
1:09:10
as they've gone.
1:09:11
We hit this with,
1:09:12
uh,
1:09:12
it was one of the Republican nominees of the Senate
1:09:15
who was at 3% to start the day.
1:09:17
We caught it at 50% as it was rising,
1:09:19
and he wound up winning.
1:09:20
Uh,
1:09:20
Murphy was his name,
1:09:21
uh,
1:09:21
you know,
1:09:21
so we we're able to double our money on that market.
1:09:24
Uh,
1:09:24
something that I think you'll,
1:09:26
you'll wanna kind of pay attention to.
1:09:27
We'll do a live stream,
1:09:28
maybe two live streams throughout the night
1:09:30
to kinda give you all the coverage of the elections that you need and that will be
1:09:33
on Tuesday.
1:09:34
So thank you so much for joining.
1:09:35
If you want all the updates,
1:09:36
go to predictableShow.com,
1:09:37
PredictableShow.com,
1:09:38
put your email in there.
1:09:39
Uh,
1:09:40
join us,
1:09:40
subscribe,
1:09:40
get in on the ground floor as we grow this thing.
1:09:42
Remember,
1:09:43
you're early,
1:09:43
so get in.
1:09:45
We love having you here and hopefully we can make some money.
1:09:47
Together,
1:09:48
uh,
1:09:48
predictableShow.com and uh Predictable with Stu.
1:09:52
Uh,
1:09:52
check it out on YouTube and follow the show and click like and do all the things.
1:09:56
All right,
1:09:57
we'll see you next week.