Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 13 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

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NFL Week 13 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. Wow. We are heading down to
0:22
Speaker 1: the final days of the season, which means there's so
0:27
Speaker 1: much judging to be done, not just of me, but
0:32
Speaker 1: by me, not just of Scooch, but by Scooch. Later
0:37
Speaker 1: on in the show, Simon Hunter Professional Better and Darren
0:40
Speaker 1: Ravel non professional Better, we'll come on the show. We're
0:44
Speaker 1: gonna talk about the picks we want to make four
0:47
Speaker 1: the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest, five picks every week
0:50
Speaker 1: when in one point five million dollars if we finished
0:54
Speaker 1: first in this pick up contest. Not a very good week.
0:58
Speaker 1: Last week two and three did not go well. Darren's
1:00
Speaker 1: gonna want to rip me from my Eagles pick. Uh,
1:04
Speaker 1: but we're gonna stay strong. Also, we're gonna preview Darren's
1:07
Speaker 1: next points Bet Fade Revel task. If you missed it
1:13
Speaker 1: last week, please go to Darren's Twitter handle. Darren had
1:18
Speaker 1: bet on Jimmy Garoppolo under one and a half touchdowns
1:21
Speaker 1: at points bet dot Com. The Fade Revel bonus was
1:25
Speaker 1: you bet over and you get seriously boosted odds. I
1:30
Speaker 1: think it was like over one and a half touchdowns
1:32
Speaker 1: is plus one fifty or something like that. Jimmy Garoppolo
1:36
Speaker 1: through for two touchdowns. Darren Revel had to take a
1:39
Speaker 1: three minute ice bath, which we live streamed on Action
1:43
Speaker 1: Network HQ at Action Network HQ on Twitter and revel
1:47
Speaker 1: tweeter live stream did as well. It was three minutes
1:51
Speaker 1: of pure agony for him and three minutes of pure
1:53
Speaker 1: joy for everybody watching. It was too too funny. This
1:56
Speaker 1: week he will do something with the Texans and the Patriots,
2:00
Speaker 1: and he just tweeted out a hint as to what
2:02
Speaker 1: we'll be doing, but it could potentially involve bodily harm
2:06
Speaker 1: and a mechanical bull. But before we get to that,
2:11
Speaker 1: let's welcome in bookmaker to the world from the Orleans
2:15
Speaker 1: representing all the BOYD Gaming books. Mr Bob Scucci, my
2:35
Speaker 1: man Chad. What's going on? Thanksgiving is upon us? It is?
2:43
Speaker 1: Can you believe how quickly it came to that? I
2:46
Speaker 1: really can't. Every year seems to go by quicker and quicker,
2:49
Speaker 1: but this year really flew by. I'm a little sad
2:53
Speaker 1: about all of it. Why is that? I don't know?
2:57
Speaker 1: Football is fun. Football is a really important moment for
3:00
Speaker 1: our business at the Action Network. I'm a little sad
3:04
Speaker 1: it's coming to such a quick close. I wish it
3:06
Speaker 1: was a little bit longer because it's you know, good
3:09
Speaker 1: for us, and um, I like it. It gives me
3:14
Speaker 1: excuse to not have to talk to everybody on Sundays
3:16
Speaker 1: because I'm quote working end quote. That's the real reason
3:22
Speaker 1: I get it. It's not an unimportant part of the
3:25
Speaker 1: of the of the equation. Look, my kids are great,
3:28
Speaker 1: my wife is fantastic. They want to spend less and
3:31
Speaker 1: less time with me is the days go on. Um,
3:34
Speaker 1: it's not like on Sundays we're out apple picking. You know,
3:39
Speaker 1: We're not your classic New England family that wants to
3:43
Speaker 1: spend the whole day together in the brusque fall weather. Like. Generally,
3:48
Speaker 1: if I can get them to have brunch with me
3:51
Speaker 1: for an hour and like, then we go about our day,
3:53
Speaker 1: everyone feels pretty good. You get it, Scooch. I do also.
4:02
Speaker 1: I generally like to spend most of Sunday morning prepping
4:05
Speaker 1: for our most amazing radio show that has ever been
4:09
Speaker 1: produced in the history of audio, The Action Network count
4:14
Speaker 1: Down to Kickoff on Radio dot Com, the Radio dot
4:16
Speaker 1: Com app, which is also now streaming on at Action
4:20
Speaker 1: Network ah Q, dude, when you have like five thousand,
4:24
Speaker 1: ten thousand, fifty thousand dollar bets coming in not just
4:29
Speaker 1: on NFL games, but on freaking college basketball games in
4:33
Speaker 1: the middle of all that action, and like your your
4:36
Speaker 1: head is is not literally but figuratively on a swivel,
4:41
Speaker 1: constantly moving around looking at your screens, trying to keep
4:43
Speaker 1: up with the action and explain what's happening to simpletons
4:47
Speaker 1: like me. That is unmatchable, unmatchable, visceral like activity, you know,
4:57
Speaker 1: And it's kind of second nature to me after all
4:59
Speaker 1: these years of looking at four screens and and kind
5:02
Speaker 1: of being on the phone and multitasking. You know. I've
5:05
Speaker 1: been in conversations with people at the sports book and
5:08
Speaker 1: they say your eyes are always shifting around, like you know,
5:11
Speaker 1: I come across as like they're like, what are you
5:13
Speaker 1: looking for it? I said, it's just have it. I'm
5:15
Speaker 1: constantly looking at two or three things at the same time.
5:19
Speaker 1: And uh so, so yes, Sunday mornings, you know, were
5:22
Speaker 1: having bets coming in on college basketball, NBA, hockey, NFL
5:26
Speaker 1: as we're doing the show. Pretty exciting stuff. Well, listen,
5:30
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to keep your eye on three games
5:32
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, I know that your beautiful bride will basically
5:37
Speaker 1: tell you don't come back until the games are over
5:39
Speaker 1: because you're just going to be preoccupied. So, um, we
5:43
Speaker 1: should talk about these games right and on the Action
5:46
Speaker 1: Network podcast this Week hosted by uh Scucci and Colin
5:51
Speaker 1: Wilson on Monday, I'm not Scucci, Stucky and Colin Wilson
5:55
Speaker 1: On Monday, I got Scucci on the Brain. I wish
5:59
Speaker 1: you did host everything we do, Scoot, you'd be amazing
6:01
Speaker 1: at it. Um, thank you. He had a great stuck.
6:04
Speaker 1: He had a great line like, if you're ever gonna
6:05
Speaker 1: get to know your family on Thanksgiving, it's going to
6:08
Speaker 1: be during the Bears Lions game, Like nobody's gonna want
6:11
Speaker 1: to watch that game. Well, it's different out here on
6:14
Speaker 1: the West Coast because that game starts so early. That's
6:16
Speaker 1: kind of like when everybody's prepping for whatever they're doing
6:19
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I mean that game is over by twelve
6:22
Speaker 1: thirty our time, so that most people haven't even left
6:26
Speaker 1: their house to to to go to their families yet.
6:28
Speaker 1: Uh So it's a little different, you know. Ever since
6:31
Speaker 1: they added the third game, though it was about two
6:33
Speaker 1: thousand and six, I think they added that third game
6:36
Speaker 1: to the day. Was just made it for the bookies,
6:38
Speaker 1: just the complete day. If you want to get away
6:40
Speaker 1: from the family, that that's that's the excuse. So sorry,
6:45
Speaker 1: you know, they added another game. I'm from morning till night.
6:48
Speaker 1: I won't be I won't be home till about nine
6:50
Speaker 1: o'clock tonight. Oh my god, that's too good. What's that
6:57
Speaker 1: are just going to say? I was gonna say I
6:59
Speaker 1: was doing. I was talking to another publication the other
7:03
Speaker 1: day about Thanksgiving and they were like reflecting on some
7:07
Speaker 1: of the worst beats on Thanksgiving and things like that,
7:10
Speaker 1: and the Leon Lett fumble and the Mark Sanchez butt fumble,
7:13
Speaker 1: all the kind of things that stand out, and I
7:15
Speaker 1: started thinking that I can't remember a day where we
7:19
Speaker 1: won all three games. And going back, even before they
7:23
Speaker 1: were playing three games, it was always either we lose
7:25
Speaker 1: both games or we split. And since the three games
7:29
Speaker 1: UH in two thousand six, we either lose two of
7:31
Speaker 1: the three games or we lose all three. We've we
7:35
Speaker 1: have never had just a day where we swept all three.
7:39
Speaker 1: So just that's why I'm always in a bad mood
7:43
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. There should be a song the Scoots should
7:47
Speaker 1: make a song about that we should bad Thanksgiving Scooch.
7:53
Speaker 1: Let's talk about this Bears Lions game. The Bears are
7:56
Speaker 1: three point favorites three mins twenty at the Orleans. You
8:00
Speaker 1: can explain to people with three minus twenty means, if
8:02
Speaker 1: they're new to the podcast, Detroit's quarterback is undecided. I'm
8:05
Speaker 1: surprised you've got a number up at all. What's your
8:08
Speaker 1: anticipation here, Well, he's listed as doubtful and they've been
8:12
Speaker 1: playing without him, without Stafford for a while anyway, so
8:15
Speaker 1: we're we're kind of leaning towards him, uh not playing.
8:19
Speaker 1: And I think some of the professionals agree with us
8:21
Speaker 1: because we hung too on this game and it actually
8:23
Speaker 1: got driven up to three minus twenty. And what that
8:26
Speaker 1: means is if you bet the Bears, you're not only
8:28
Speaker 1: laying minus three, but you have to lay a dollar
8:30
Speaker 1: twenty to win a dollar instead of just a normal
8:33
Speaker 1: dollar ten to win a dollar. So money on the
8:35
Speaker 1: Bears um sharp money on the Bears. I think they
8:39
Speaker 1: were just kind of grabbing the number realizing it would
8:42
Speaker 1: probably go up. We typically inflate the favorites on Thanksgiving Day. Uh,
8:47
Speaker 1: they're gonna be a half a point a point shaded
8:50
Speaker 1: towards the favorite. Anyway, the sharp guys usually take the
8:54
Speaker 1: underdogs on on Thanksgiving knowing that they're gonna be getting
8:57
Speaker 1: more value there. We know that the people come to
9:00
Speaker 1: come to Vegas for Thanksgiving holiday, plus all the locals
9:04
Speaker 1: that that live here that want to bet on the game,
9:06
Speaker 1: they all bet favorite and over, favorite and over and
9:08
Speaker 1: automatic six team parlay favorites and over. So we could
9:11
Speaker 1: try to be on the high side with that and uh,
9:15
Speaker 1: but in this case, it looks like we weren't high
9:19
Speaker 1: enough to begin with. So um line got driven to
9:22
Speaker 1: three twenty. If if Stafford is definitely out, if it
9:25
Speaker 1: comes out he's definitely out, the line probably goes up
9:28
Speaker 1: to four. And if it comes comes across these probable
9:32
Speaker 1: then the line comes down probably about Chicago one and
9:35
Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, that's a tough one, Like, how do
9:39
Speaker 1: you know, how do you not just hold off on
9:40
Speaker 1: this until you know what? It was? Only two days?
9:45
Speaker 1: You hold off, But dude, dude, let me finish, Let
9:49
Speaker 1: me finish. You hold off. No, no, you hold off
9:59
Speaker 1: until nine twenty a m. Pacific twelve pm Eastern before
10:05
Speaker 1: you make that bet. Oh, before you make the bet.
10:10
Speaker 1: That's what you're going to say as a as a
10:13
Speaker 1: sorry sorry I cut you off there, Yeah, I was there. Yeah,
10:19
Speaker 1: I definitely hold off until until you know for sure.
10:23
Speaker 1: I mean again, going back to kind of Thanksgiving that
10:26
Speaker 1: really stand out in my mind. There was one year
10:29
Speaker 1: where Troy Aikman was questionable and that line moved four
10:34
Speaker 1: points one way that four points of the other way,
10:36
Speaker 1: because first he was going to be suiting up to play,
10:39
Speaker 1: and then right before game time it came he was
10:42
Speaker 1: definitely out. And uh, it's definitely no fun when you
10:45
Speaker 1: have a top tier quarterback, it's questionable on the morning
10:50
Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving. Then we got we got the Cowboys visiting,
10:55
Speaker 1: we got the Buffalo Bills visiting Dallas. Jerry Joe's this
10:58
Speaker 1: week basically acting like everything in the world is on
11:02
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett. And look, if I'm Jason Garrett, i am
11:08
Speaker 1: I kicking a field goal at down seven on the
11:11
Speaker 1: fourth and seven from in the red zone when I
11:14
Speaker 1: might not get the ball back. That is just insanity,
11:17
Speaker 1: bad coaching, really talented team that is underperforming. Doesn't sound
11:21
Speaker 1: like he's gonna last much last after the season, but
11:25
Speaker 1: you've got him as a seven point Excuse me, I
11:27
Speaker 1: just had lunch. You've got him as a seven point
11:29
Speaker 1: favorite here, seven, but it's close, closer to six and
11:33
Speaker 1: a half. And as a matter of fact, just prior
11:35
Speaker 1: to coming on the air, I was talking with with
11:38
Speaker 1: Jake down in the Hub and we were kind of
11:40
Speaker 1: deciding whether to go to six and a half now
11:42
Speaker 1: and before we get a wise guy play, or if
11:45
Speaker 1: we should just leave it at seven knowing that the
11:48
Speaker 1: public is going to lay the Cowboys and then, like
11:51
Speaker 1: you just said, wait till Thursday morning and before we
11:54
Speaker 1: move it to six and a half. But the sharp
11:56
Speaker 1: guys are definitely gonna take Buffalo in this one. They
11:58
Speaker 1: are not gonna lay seven points. They're gonna take seven points.
12:02
Speaker 1: So it's just a question of when we go to
12:03
Speaker 1: six and a half. I mean, the Bills are another
12:06
Speaker 1: one of those teams that the public is just going
12:08
Speaker 1: to keep riding. Uh they cash tickets with him last
12:11
Speaker 1: week again. Uh, you know, the team's eight and three
12:14
Speaker 1: and they've got some really nice win and you know
12:17
Speaker 1: that their defense keeps them, keeps them in games, and
12:20
Speaker 1: and their offenses is actually starting to be a little
12:23
Speaker 1: bit better than the beginning of the season. Do Do
12:25
Speaker 1: Do Do Do Do? Do Do do do do do do
12:27
Speaker 1: do do do do do. I got breaking news, breaking news,
12:30
Speaker 1: breaking news. Yeah, line change, you saw the New Orleans.
12:37
Speaker 1: Get out of Buffalo, Man, get out of Dallas. Let's
12:40
Speaker 1: go right to New Oh oh the line change. Yeah,
12:48
Speaker 1: tell us what's happening? What am I seeing right now? Well,
12:51
Speaker 1: it's like I said, Chicago, the sharp guys are laying
12:54
Speaker 1: the bear the bear. So we were uh we we
12:59
Speaker 1: we moved into three minus twenty. We took one bet
13:02
Speaker 1: on Detroit, but not enough to to move the minus three.
13:06
Speaker 1: We just took enough on Detroit to just go back
13:09
Speaker 1: from three minus twenty to three minus fifteen. Even at
13:12
Speaker 1: three minus fifteen, we're the highest I think of any
13:15
Speaker 1: place here in town, and even some places out of town.
13:18
Speaker 1: I think some places are at two and a half
13:20
Speaker 1: and most places are at three flat. So we're still
13:22
Speaker 1: high on the Bears. And we also just moved Dallas
13:26
Speaker 1: to seven even money because we're getting some more money
13:30
Speaker 1: on the Bears. I think I'm I'm gonna as soon
13:33
Speaker 1: as as soon as we're off the air, I'm gonna
13:35
Speaker 1: call down the hub and have a discussion about whether
13:38
Speaker 1: or not we stay at six and a half on
13:39
Speaker 1: this and we still haven't decided on this. Well, no,
13:43
Speaker 1: you're at seven even money on Dallas and you're at
13:48
Speaker 1: minus seven minus twenty on New Orleans, which you just
13:51
Speaker 1: moved to. Yeah, we just took some more money on
13:53
Speaker 1: the on the Saints, and there's a there's another team
13:56
Speaker 1: we know because it's the late game on Thursday, and
13:59
Speaker 1: like I said, with a comes Favorite and over, it
14:02
Speaker 1: becomes Bears it over and Dallas and over. This game
14:06
Speaker 1: is going to be about four times as big as
14:09
Speaker 1: the other two games combined. So we're trying to head
14:13
Speaker 1: that off now, trying to get a little money on
14:16
Speaker 1: Atlanta early, because we know that by Thursday night it'll
14:20
Speaker 1: be tough to get Atlanta money. All the public will
14:23
Speaker 1: be on New Orleans and at that point the sharp
14:27
Speaker 1: guys may not want to take seven. The sharp guys
14:29
Speaker 1: may be looking for seven and a half by that time.
14:31
Speaker 1: So best to get the Atlanta money now while we can.
14:35
Speaker 1: Green Bay visiting New York Giants. Green Bay six and
14:38
Speaker 1: a half point favorite coming off of slacking, But Danny dimes,
14:43
Speaker 1: it's more like Danny drops the ball. Yeah, yeah, this
14:50
Speaker 1: was boy. The you know, the people have gotten all
14:54
Speaker 1: the Packer den wagon and we talked a little bit
14:57
Speaker 1: about it. Kell's that one point. Uh, we're one of
15:01
Speaker 1: the top three in the NFC as far as the
15:05
Speaker 1: rankings go. And uh, they had a couple of real
15:08
Speaker 1: bad losses and then made them drop and uh, just
15:12
Speaker 1: when it seemed like they were kind of creeping back up,
15:14
Speaker 1: they get shellacked. I mean to give credit to uh,
15:19
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean in this game. This is a
15:23
Speaker 1: little different because they're playing a bad team like the Giants.
15:27
Speaker 1: Right right now, the ticket count is about six to
15:30
Speaker 1: one Packers to Giants. So, um, when I say the
15:33
Speaker 1: public is awful, they're not completely off them. Uh, they
15:36
Speaker 1: just don't have the confidence that they did at one point. Uh.
15:39
Speaker 1: There's just no reason to bet on the Giants right now.
15:42
Speaker 1: So Packers on the road minus six and a half.
15:46
Speaker 1: I could see this line probably going up as well,
15:48
Speaker 1: being that we've got six to one ratio of bets
15:52
Speaker 1: on Packers to Giants. Just sharp guys haven't weighed in yet.
15:55
Speaker 1: That's the only thing I don't know they're going to
15:59
Speaker 1: anytime soon. Not a great number two teams that you
16:02
Speaker 1: can't get a read on. Late in the year, Packers
16:04
Speaker 1: fading Jones not really performing up to expectations after the
16:08
Speaker 1: first couple of weeks. Dwayne Haskins, however, if he can
16:11
Speaker 1: make it back out of the field, if he can remember,
16:13
Speaker 1: he's got to play the full game. Visiting the Carolina Panthers,
16:16
Speaker 1: He's a ten point underdog against Kyle Allen, who has
16:19
Speaker 1: continued to regress. Had a really nice game against the
16:22
Speaker 1: Saints in the second half, got uh, you know, it
16:27
Speaker 1: was not treated nicely by the Panthers field goal kicker
16:30
Speaker 1: who missed a very easy field go wide right, and
16:34
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you were on Saints drive down
16:36
Speaker 1: the field. Anything in sports more inevitable than Drew Brees,
16:40
Speaker 1: no matter where he is in the field, getting his
16:42
Speaker 1: team in a field coal position with a d and
16:45
Speaker 1: twenty seconds or less left on the clock. I've been
16:50
Speaker 1: watching it for fifteen years, and uh, you know, give him,
16:53
Speaker 1: give him the ball with any time left. And uh,
16:56
Speaker 1: even even if there's a couple of seconds left, and
16:59
Speaker 1: I've seen him kind get them into field goal range.
17:01
Speaker 1: It's too easy. Ten points is a lot of points
17:04
Speaker 1: against the Redskins for a Carolina team. Anyone doing anything
17:08
Speaker 1: with this game yet, I mean, the public is all
17:11
Speaker 1: over the Panthers. I mean, there's about sevent the bets
17:14
Speaker 1: that are on the Panthers. And I think what I
17:16
Speaker 1: was talking about on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, about the public
17:20
Speaker 1: being on the favorites, that's going to carry over in
17:22
Speaker 1: through the whole weekend. There's a lot of people that
17:25
Speaker 1: have the four day weekend that either visiting here in
17:28
Speaker 1: Vegas or now that sports books are all over the
17:31
Speaker 1: country now visiting their local sports book on on Thanksgiving
17:35
Speaker 1: Day weekend, We're going to see a lot of inflated favorites.
17:38
Speaker 1: It's going to be opportunities for the sharp guys to
17:41
Speaker 1: get good numbers, but they still have to win the game.
17:44
Speaker 1: And we've seen weekends where a lot of the favorites
17:47
Speaker 1: have covered on Thanksgiving Day weekend and it turns out
17:49
Speaker 1: to be, you know, one of the worst weekends of
17:51
Speaker 1: the football season for the bookmakers. But that's the reason
17:56
Speaker 1: you're just going to see some of these lines that
17:57
Speaker 1: are pretty high. Normally, I would say a team the
18:00
Speaker 1: Panthers isn't a team that can be laying double digits
18:04
Speaker 1: against you know, almost anybody and it's almost an automatic take.
18:08
Speaker 1: But having said that, the sharp guys haven't taken the
18:10
Speaker 1: ten yet, so a little concerning there. I gotta talk
18:14
Speaker 1: about this next game because it could be a Super
18:16
Speaker 1: Bowl preview. Jimmy Garoppolo, the San Francisco forty Niners visiting
18:20
Speaker 1: m VP candidate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who
18:23
Speaker 1: just annihilated last year's Super Bowls contender from the NFC,
18:27
Speaker 1: the Rams, really making them look bad, which only makes
18:30
Speaker 1: the public love the Ravens even more. There's six point
18:33
Speaker 1: favorites at home. That number feels high to me, It's
18:37
Speaker 1: way high. So we made them the line for prior
18:41
Speaker 1: to the Ravens blowing out the Rams on Monday nights.
18:43
Speaker 1: So basically two point adjustment and probably not enough of
18:48
Speaker 1: an adjustment with the forty Niners big win on Sunday.
18:54
Speaker 1: So you know, what we've seen from the public in
18:59
Speaker 1: big games like this is two really great teams playing
19:03
Speaker 1: each other. They're gonna gravitate towards the underdog. We've seen
19:07
Speaker 1: it in college. It's a it's a trend away from
19:10
Speaker 1: what it used to be for many years, where they
19:12
Speaker 1: would just automatically bet the favorites. They bet the favorites
19:15
Speaker 1: in regular season against mediocre teams. But when two great
19:18
Speaker 1: teams match up against each other and they can't quite
19:21
Speaker 1: make up their mind, they'll lean towards the underdog. And
19:24
Speaker 1: that's even when the underdog is only getting three or
19:26
Speaker 1: four points. In a case where the underdog is getting
19:29
Speaker 1: six points, they're gonna be all over the forty Niners
19:32
Speaker 1: in this one. I do think that's a little high.
19:34
Speaker 1: But on the other hand, this Ravens team is so
19:38
Speaker 1: explosive and and and so good. Um, but they're going
19:42
Speaker 1: up against the forty Niners team that might be the
19:45
Speaker 1: best defenses you know, we've seen in a while. So yes,
19:49
Speaker 1: we're on the high side. And if anything, it's gonna
19:51
Speaker 1: go down, it's not going to go up. Um, we'll
19:54
Speaker 1: probably see this line come towards what we originally wanted
19:57
Speaker 1: to make it, which was four. So if you like
19:59
Speaker 1: to Niners, get him now, I think so. I think
20:03
Speaker 1: it's going to go down, all right. Why does it
20:05
Speaker 1: feel like there's a Pantheon Cup game every single weekend? Now?
20:12
Speaker 1: Like I don't ever want to see a f C
20:15
Speaker 1: Sales teams played each other ever again, and yet that
20:18
Speaker 1: seems to be all we get. We got Tennessee visiting
20:21
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Indianapolis minus three m plus one as favorites. Um boy,
20:30
Speaker 1: there's nothing to say about this game. It's like we've
20:33
Speaker 1: we talked about every week, when when the two teams,
20:35
Speaker 1: when when any of the teams play in this Pantheon Cup.
20:38
Speaker 1: It's like the home team is laying three points and
20:41
Speaker 1: nobody knows what to do with it. Uh. Last week,
20:44
Speaker 1: tend to see with a three point favorite at home.
20:47
Speaker 1: If you remember, on our Sunday show, right about twenty
20:50
Speaker 1: minutes before kickoff, we just got buried with sharp money
20:53
Speaker 1: on Tennessee. We went to four and a half from three,
20:56
Speaker 1: and they were the only ones betting the game. The
20:58
Speaker 1: public did, you know, wasn't interested at all. Uh. And
21:02
Speaker 1: those are usually indications that it was the right side,
21:05
Speaker 1: and it turned out it was I think Tennessee one
21:07
Speaker 1: by about twenty. So those are moves to look for.
21:10
Speaker 1: You know, we always said the late move is the
21:12
Speaker 1: correct move, especially twenty one minutes before kickoff in a
21:15
Speaker 1: game that nobody else cares about. When you see that
21:18
Speaker 1: one move big, it's it's pretty strong play. That's why
21:22
Speaker 1: people have to listen to the show on Sunday mornings.
21:24
Speaker 1: Like that, is an actionable piece of incredibly thoughtful advice
21:31
Speaker 1: that people can win money on. You have said for years, Scooch,
21:34
Speaker 1: it's a scooch is um? What was that? Is that
21:37
Speaker 1: your alarment? You got somewhere to go, You got another
21:40
Speaker 1: publication to talk to. The late move is the correct
21:44
Speaker 1: move and that was a money making move because the
21:47
Speaker 1: Titans blew them out. Al Pacino coached his best game
21:51
Speaker 1: of the year for the Titans to get them into
21:54
Speaker 1: the Pantheon Cup class. What do we do? What do
21:58
Speaker 1: we do with Carson Wentz who is just regressing beyond
22:02
Speaker 1: anything anyone expected? There what nine and a half point
22:06
Speaker 1: favorites on the road against the Dolphins. Look, I was
22:10
Speaker 1: way off the Dolphins this past week. I thought like
22:13
Speaker 1: that's hide had sort of crested. For a lack of
22:17
Speaker 1: a better term, but I don't like. You give me
22:21
Speaker 1: a fading, struggling Eagles team and a quarterback who can't
22:26
Speaker 1: really seem to find the magic that got him to
22:28
Speaker 1: convert every third down a couple of years ago, versus
22:31
Speaker 1: a Ryan Fitzpatrick lead team that does not give up
22:35
Speaker 1: Like they were down twenty eight nothing and midway through
22:37
Speaker 1: the fourth I was worried about my cover. Yeah, no,
22:43
Speaker 1: they are tenacious now, aren't. I'm going to take the
22:45
Speaker 1: Dolphins in this game. Yeah, it seems like the the
22:51
Speaker 1: the right move. I mean, like last week, I think
22:53
Speaker 1: you said the bloom was off the rows on on
22:55
Speaker 1: betting on the Dolphins, and you picked the right time
22:57
Speaker 1: to to to jump off them at some point. You know,
23:00
Speaker 1: we kept lowering their power rankings until we created value
23:04
Speaker 1: on them because they were so low. And then once
23:06
Speaker 1: we did see that there was a little fight in
23:07
Speaker 1: this team and they didn't, uh, you know, totally give
23:10
Speaker 1: up on on the whole year, we realized they can
23:13
Speaker 1: be competitive, especially when they're getting double digits. Uh, they're
23:17
Speaker 1: not quite getting double digits here, but it's close. Nine
23:22
Speaker 1: and a half of the is the spread. I think
23:26
Speaker 1: we're probably close to going to nine though. I think
23:28
Speaker 1: everyone else is feeling the same thing in terms of
23:31
Speaker 1: the sharp guys. The public is still on Philly in
23:34
Speaker 1: this one. Um. I mean, you know, Philly just don't
23:38
Speaker 1: they They haven't had any weapons, uh at all. Their
23:41
Speaker 1: whole team is hurt, I mean without they started the
23:43
Speaker 1: year with the Sean Jackson and Darren Sproles and Alston
23:46
Speaker 1: Jeffrey and Nelson Aguilard. All those guys were out last game,
23:51
Speaker 1: so they had so so Wentz had absolutely no weapons
23:54
Speaker 1: to throw to. Uh. It was really I have really
23:58
Speaker 1: liked Philly going into that game against the Seahawks, and
24:01
Speaker 1: I thought that was a good spot for them until
24:04
Speaker 1: all these injuries came across and uh, and that's just
24:07
Speaker 1: really key. I mean, without all those guys, it's really
24:11
Speaker 1: tough to to go up against any a good team
24:13
Speaker 1: like Seattle. So here against Miami, they don't have the
24:17
Speaker 1: defense that Seattle has. But Jeffrey is still questionable and
24:21
Speaker 1: and so was Nelson aguilar So I think there's another game.
24:24
Speaker 1: Just have to pay attention as to whether those two
24:27
Speaker 1: guys are are going to be playing or not. Last week,
24:30
Speaker 1: I was all over the New York Jets. I thought
24:33
Speaker 1: they were the best play on the board at plus three.
24:36
Speaker 1: I wrote a story about it on Action network dot Com.
24:38
Speaker 1: Thought none of the metrics matched up to equal the
24:41
Speaker 1: Raiders having the record they had. Pythagorean wins were way off.
24:46
Speaker 1: They were playing above expectations based on points allowed and
24:49
Speaker 1: points scored. More points allowed than scored. That indicates a
24:53
Speaker 1: team that is overperforming. You get a team like that,
24:56
Speaker 1: there's a three point favorite on the road against a
24:58
Speaker 1: team with a good rush defense. Uh, that was a
25:01
Speaker 1: match made in heaven. Genius move on my part, really
25:05
Speaker 1: bringing all my talents to bear and identifying the opportunity.
25:09
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Now you yourself on the back wide,
25:13
Speaker 1: don't you give yourself some credit? You're so humble. I
25:15
Speaker 1: give thanks for me. I give thanks for everything I've
25:17
Speaker 1: learned over the past twenty years of doing this. Oakland
25:22
Speaker 1: is a ten point dog at home against the Chiefs.
25:25
Speaker 1: I believe the Chiefs are on a bye off of
25:28
Speaker 1: bye am. I right, yep, come on ye the Andy
25:33
Speaker 1: Reid bump, the Andy Reid bump. Okay Uh. I'll say
25:42
Speaker 1: one thing though, and one thing that I kind of
25:46
Speaker 1: adhere too, is coaches that look ahead in schedules for
25:51
Speaker 1: key games and not that they're not that they're trying
25:56
Speaker 1: to lose a game, but maybe they're not taking that
25:58
Speaker 1: game as serious as as the week following and knowing
26:02
Speaker 1: that they were going to be playing the Chiefs. It's
26:05
Speaker 1: easy to see them once once that game was kind
26:08
Speaker 1: of out of hand against the jetz this is the
26:11
Speaker 1: game they want and as ten point underdogs. I think
26:16
Speaker 1: there's tremendous value on the Raiders and this one. The
26:20
Speaker 1: sharp guys have already kind of tipped their hand that, uh,
26:24
Speaker 1: they kind of feel the same way Thanksgiving Day weekend.
26:27
Speaker 1: We're a little inflated on this line anyway. This line
26:29
Speaker 1: should probably be around eight eight and a half, so
26:35
Speaker 1: the ten being somewhat of a key number this type
26:38
Speaker 1: of division game, I would expect a different Raiders team
26:41
Speaker 1: than than what we saw last week. You just made
26:46
Speaker 1: me have to have a hard decision. Feels so good
26:51
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs and now you're making me rethink it
26:53
Speaker 1: might have to do what the wise guys do. Uh listen,
26:57
Speaker 1: good news, we have the other uh round of the
27:02
Speaker 1: Pantheon Cup, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars.
27:08
Speaker 1: They can take a nice little bus ride across to
27:10
Speaker 1: the northern Florida Panhandle and then nobody can watch this game.
27:16
Speaker 1: Yeah um, yeah, there's not much action on this game
27:20
Speaker 1: at all. The public that is putting a team in
27:24
Speaker 1: a parlay is basically betting the Buccaneers. We're seeing some
27:27
Speaker 1: teaser money, you know. The their Buccaneers are getting plus
27:30
Speaker 1: one and a half, so teasing them up to eight
27:32
Speaker 1: and a half in a game that's supposed to be
27:34
Speaker 1: somewhat competitive. That's the only angle here, but not much.
27:38
Speaker 1: The sharp guys haven't weighed in, and there's hardly any
27:41
Speaker 1: action on this game at all. Blah blah blah. Meanwhile,
27:45
Speaker 1: this next game, I'm fascinated by the New York Jets
27:47
Speaker 1: visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton back, you've got the
27:51
Speaker 1: Jets is a three and a half point favorite. What
27:53
Speaker 1: are you doing, man? What are you doing much? You're
27:56
Speaker 1: gonna get You're gonna get clocked in this. Give me
28:00
Speaker 1: the red rifle. Give me the red rifle in this game.
28:04
Speaker 1: They're playing hard there. Listen, they got one chance to
28:07
Speaker 1: win this year one. You're they're looking at it. They're
28:11
Speaker 1: bringing their better quarterback back. They've got a defense that
28:14
Speaker 1: has been really stingy uh, this is their shot. They
28:18
Speaker 1: are not gonna miss their shot. Hamilton's right, I got
28:23
Speaker 1: that reference sample it all right. So yeah, you know
28:31
Speaker 1: we're kind of we're kind of off this year on
28:35
Speaker 1: a lot of these on a lot of these teams.
28:37
Speaker 1: And I'll be the first to admit, you know, we've
28:39
Speaker 1: had some pretty bad lines can't get it, can't get
28:41
Speaker 1: a good read on the Jets. Obviously, from the last
28:44
Speaker 1: two weeks, I think they won by identical scores against
28:48
Speaker 1: both both the Raiders and the Redskins. So that's the
28:52
Speaker 1: reason they're a little inflated. Uh, nobody's betting the Bengals
28:56
Speaker 1: and that or have been during their eleven lost match,
29:00
Speaker 1: So that's another reason the ticket count is about five
29:04
Speaker 1: to one Jets to Bengals. However, we've got more money
29:08
Speaker 1: on this game, uh, for more than any other Sunday game.
29:12
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna throw the three Things Giving Day
29:14
Speaker 1: games out because we have a lot of money on
29:16
Speaker 1: all three of them. But we've got more action on
29:18
Speaker 1: these Jets Bengals than any other game on Sunday, including
29:23
Speaker 1: the Ravens, the Ravens forty Niners. So even bad teams
29:27
Speaker 1: can kind of draw action when there's a little bit
29:30
Speaker 1: of intrigue. Uh. You know the the Jets, you know
29:33
Speaker 1: that they're they're drawing a lot of attention because they're
29:36
Speaker 1: not a good team, but they when they win, they
29:39
Speaker 1: win big, and they come up with some big wins
29:41
Speaker 1: like they did against the Cowboys, against teams that are
29:43
Speaker 1: much better than them, So a lot of intrigue with that.
29:46
Speaker 1: And then, like you said, the Bengals, oh and eleven,
29:48
Speaker 1: if they have a shot to win a game, this
29:50
Speaker 1: is this is it. So a lot of interest in
29:52
Speaker 1: this game, and on both sides. I mean that the
29:55
Speaker 1: action is good on both side. We're not lopsided in
29:58
Speaker 1: terms of money, We're only lopside in terms of ticket
30:00
Speaker 1: account on the on the Jets, I'm betting on the
30:03
Speaker 1: Bengals in that game. That's it, That's all there is
30:05
Speaker 1: to it. I know I said I would never do
30:07
Speaker 1: it again, but by gosh, Scoots, you handed me a
30:10
Speaker 1: juicy opportunity. The l A Rams are visiting the Arizona Cardinals.
30:15
Speaker 1: They are only a field goal favorite right now. What
30:19
Speaker 1: a fall for the Los Angeles Rams. And last night
30:23
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football that did not help their cause. No,
30:27
Speaker 1: I mean to be fair. They went up against probably
30:30
Speaker 1: the best team in the NFL right now, but they
30:34
Speaker 1: had they made them look so much better than what
30:37
Speaker 1: they are. Their defense is nowhere near what it was
30:39
Speaker 1: last year, the offense is still struggling. Golf looks terrible. Uh.
30:44
Speaker 1: There's not many kind of silver linings in this Rams
30:47
Speaker 1: team right now. And instead of kind of picking it up.
30:51
Speaker 1: At one point mid season, I finally thought they had
30:53
Speaker 1: their legs under them and they put a couple of
30:55
Speaker 1: good wins together. Uh, but they fell right back to
30:59
Speaker 1: where they were at the beginning of the season. So yeah,
31:02
Speaker 1: they're only a three point favorite. Uh. Good good action
31:05
Speaker 1: both ways on this one. I think I think it's
31:07
Speaker 1: the right line. Um. I think the Sharp guys will
31:10
Speaker 1: probably favor the Cardinals in this one only because they're
31:13
Speaker 1: they're getting points at home and uh and kind of
31:17
Speaker 1: after that Rams lost, I don't expect them to necessarily
31:19
Speaker 1: bounce back to anything, uh to to get up for
31:22
Speaker 1: a Cardinals team, So I don't think we'll see much
31:26
Speaker 1: movement in this line. I like this next game, the
31:28
Speaker 1: Chargers in the Broncos. All of a sudden, they just
31:32
Speaker 1: feel like two teams. No one cares about it anymore,
31:36
Speaker 1: and I think that's changed a little bit. Yeah. So, um,
31:40
Speaker 1: this is an interesting one from a bookmaking perspective because
31:44
Speaker 1: both the public and the Sharp guys are both on
31:46
Speaker 1: the same side, which usually is not good for the bookmakers.
31:50
Speaker 1: And I've probably been a little high on the Broncos
31:54
Speaker 1: all year. They've gotten some I've talked about it every week,
31:57
Speaker 1: how they've gotten a lot of good wins and covers.
31:59
Speaker 1: For us, we need the Broncos every week. This is
32:02
Speaker 1: going to be no different. We opened the Chargers at
32:05
Speaker 1: one point favorite on the road in this one, and
32:07
Speaker 1: it got driven up to three in a hurry. So
32:11
Speaker 1: we took some pretty big bets on the Chargers at
32:14
Speaker 1: minus one, minus one and a half. We went straight
32:17
Speaker 1: from one and a half to two and a half. Uh,
32:19
Speaker 1: and then took some more money at two and a
32:20
Speaker 1: half and went to three even money all one way.
32:23
Speaker 1: We've got no sharp money on the Broncos whatsoever. And
32:26
Speaker 1: then the public as well, we're seeing about a ten
32:29
Speaker 1: to one ratio of Charger bets to Broncos. Betch. And
32:33
Speaker 1: it's interesting because here's two teams that love to take
32:36
Speaker 1: a lead into the fourth quarter and then blow it.
32:38
Speaker 1: So it's which one's gonna win out here? You got
32:41
Speaker 1: you got two teams that lose close one. I think
32:44
Speaker 1: every one of the Chargers losses has been by one score,
32:47
Speaker 1: and the same with the Broncos. So somebody, somebody's got
32:50
Speaker 1: a mess up here in the fourth quarter. Why do
32:51
Speaker 1: you think the wise guys like to Charger so much.
32:54
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I mean, if I if I knew
32:57
Speaker 1: their angle, I probably would have opened three to begin with.
32:59
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure what they're saying in this one
33:01
Speaker 1: other than you know, like I said, we'd have been
33:04
Speaker 1: maybe a little too high on the Broncos. So just
33:07
Speaker 1: in in our raw power ranking, maybe we just haven't
33:11
Speaker 1: given um, we're too high on the Broncos and haven't
33:14
Speaker 1: given enough credit to the Chargers. The next game, Brown Steelers,
33:19
Speaker 1: so many layers right rematch, obviously huge amount of tension
33:25
Speaker 1: between these two teams, a lot of animosity, UM, the
33:29
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett situation, the Mason Rudolph situation, uh Intro Division arrivals,
33:35
Speaker 1: both with a chance to vy for a playoff spot.
33:39
Speaker 1: Cleveland coming on strong. They're now one game back of
33:42
Speaker 1: five hundred, Pittsburgh barely over five hundred. Duck Hodges the
33:48
Speaker 1: new quarterback against Baker Mayfield, who's starting to figure some
33:52
Speaker 1: things out. They also know they got to ride Nick Chubb.
33:55
Speaker 1: You've got him as a very short road favorite. Normally
33:58
Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna be all over a home dog,
34:01
Speaker 1: but I don't think Pittsburgh's healthy enough to compete here.
34:05
Speaker 1: No that's the thing. They're banged up. And then you
34:07
Speaker 1: know what happened just a couple of weeks ago. I
34:10
Speaker 1: mean that that first game was still fresh in everybody's mind.
34:14
Speaker 1: That was just a couple of weeks ago, when the
34:16
Speaker 1: Browns were at home, and they were about a three
34:18
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite in that one, so
34:21
Speaker 1: roughly about a four and a half point adjustment for
34:23
Speaker 1: flipping fields. Um, we're going to see more action on
34:27
Speaker 1: the Browns than we are on the Steelers, even though
34:29
Speaker 1: Steelers are at home. The Browns, like you mentioned, are
34:32
Speaker 1: playing where most people thought they would play at the
34:37
Speaker 1: beginning of the season. So and they got got some
34:40
Speaker 1: impressive wins and in some of those games. So we're
34:43
Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna see more money on the Browns in
34:46
Speaker 1: this one. Uh, not by much. And sharp guys really
34:49
Speaker 1: haven't weighed in on this yet, so I'm not sure
34:51
Speaker 1: which which way they'd be leaning in this one. It's
34:54
Speaker 1: a tough one. I'm going to wait for the number
34:56
Speaker 1: to move a little bit. I think I think it's
34:57
Speaker 1: going to go in Cleveland's direction, and then I that
35:00
Speaker 1: have to make a decision on Cleveland or make a
35:02
Speaker 1: decision on Pittsburgh. Clearly, that's what decisions are for New
35:05
Speaker 1: England visiting Houston. Potential playoff match up here, New England
35:10
Speaker 1: a three point road favorite. God, I want to love
35:13
Speaker 1: Houston in the spot, but they've let me down so
35:16
Speaker 1: many times this year. When we were making this line,
35:20
Speaker 1: we said, Okay, this is gonna be after a long
35:23
Speaker 1: four day weekend full of college and pro football. This
35:27
Speaker 1: is going to be the Sunday night game. All the
35:29
Speaker 1: parlays are going to be going to which team the
35:31
Speaker 1: New England Patriots like they are every weekend. So we said,
35:35
Speaker 1: whatever we would normally make it, we have to make
35:37
Speaker 1: it a little bit higher. So normally we'd probably make
35:40
Speaker 1: this about two and a half minus money. We went
35:42
Speaker 1: on the high side and we opened three and a half,
35:45
Speaker 1: and right out of the gate, the sharp guys took
35:47
Speaker 1: three and a half. And I will say, I don't
35:49
Speaker 1: think it's necessarily that they love the Texans. I just
35:51
Speaker 1: think that they feel like it might be the only
35:54
Speaker 1: three and a half they see. Um, so, so they
35:57
Speaker 1: took it early. Uh. And now we're at Hatriots minus
36:00
Speaker 1: three minus dollar twenty and most of the public is
36:04
Speaker 1: on the Patriots as expected, and We've kind of slowed
36:08
Speaker 1: down a lot of the sharp money on the on
36:10
Speaker 1: the Texans. So this is a tough one. At three
36:14
Speaker 1: and a half. You have to take the Texans at three.
36:16
Speaker 1: You have to think twice about the next game. Minnesota
36:20
Speaker 1: playing Seattle in Seattle Monday night football. That's a ESPN
36:25
Speaker 1: has got itself a game right there. I would take
36:27
Speaker 1: Minnesota in this game. Minnesota is as like three point underdog.
36:35
Speaker 1: Seattle plays him close. Generally, they do not tend to
36:40
Speaker 1: look good over the course of an entire game. I
36:43
Speaker 1: am a big Minnesota fan. In this game, give me
36:47
Speaker 1: the Minnesota VI Gangs. You who that is? Yeah, we've seen.
36:51
Speaker 1: Do you know who that is? Is that another Lizzo?
36:55
Speaker 1: Do you know Lizzo? Gosh darn dag nabt Scooch. What
37:02
Speaker 1: kind of references are you throw at Lizzo? Man, She's
37:05
Speaker 1: like one of the hottest musicians, artists, singers happening today.
37:10
Speaker 1: She's happening, man. The other day I did a Peloton
37:13
Speaker 1: class that was all Lizzo, was all Lizzo music. I
37:15
Speaker 1: know you're on the peloton, We've talked about it. Go
37:17
Speaker 1: get yourself a little Lizzo class. What kind of music
37:20
Speaker 1: is lizz does like Uh, it's it's a little poppy,
37:26
Speaker 1: a little hip hoppy. It's good. It's good. She can't
37:30
Speaker 1: be she can't be labeled. That's the thing about Lizzo.
37:32
Speaker 1: She can do anything. Okay. I like I like alt rock. Now,
37:36
Speaker 1: that's why I'm meant to like. I like news. Jesus Christ,
37:41
Speaker 1: why don't I send you? Why don't I send you?
37:43
Speaker 1: Uh Smith's Replacements Tears for Fears mixtape. I didn't say eighties.
37:56
Speaker 1: Give me your take on this game, and then let's
37:58
Speaker 1: play some scooch roulette. I leaned towards the Vikings in
38:02
Speaker 1: this one only because I think Seattle was another one
38:05
Speaker 1: of those teams that you mentioned, like with the Raiders
38:07
Speaker 1: and your Pathectorian theorem, how they're just kind of winning
38:10
Speaker 1: games that they statistically shouldn't shouldn't be winning, but they
38:15
Speaker 1: are getting the wins. I think in this case, they're
38:17
Speaker 1: going up against just such a good team that if
38:20
Speaker 1: you're going to give points to a team, I'll take
38:22
Speaker 1: the point in this one. I'm with you. I'm with you.
38:25
Speaker 1: Guess what it's time for? Oh? What time for scooch roulette.
38:31
Speaker 1: Let's play some games as much as I love the Jets.
38:38
Speaker 1: Last week, uh, pat our producer reminded me that I
38:42
Speaker 1: did not take the Jets. I took the Buffalo Bills.
38:45
Speaker 1: You took the Atlanta Falcons. I still won. Yeah, I'm
38:51
Speaker 1: not doing very well. Someone like sent me a tweet.
38:56
Speaker 1: They tweeted me, and they tweeted at your dad, not
38:58
Speaker 1: knowing that you're not on Twitter, just ripping you to
39:02
Speaker 1: shreds for missing in Scootrolett every week, and they feel
39:05
Speaker 1: like you're doing it on purpose. So people will go
39:08
Speaker 1: in the direction you need them to go. Can you
39:11
Speaker 1: explain to people that we're not that influential? Well, and
39:17
Speaker 1: that's always the knock against somebody that's making a line
39:20
Speaker 1: and moving a line and then to go ahead and
39:23
Speaker 1: to say why you like a game? So I try
39:26
Speaker 1: to pick the games that we made deliberately, like like
39:30
Speaker 1: last week, we made the Falcons a four and a
39:32
Speaker 1: half point favorite and it got driven down to three.
39:34
Speaker 1: So at least kind of putting my money where my
39:36
Speaker 1: mouth is. If I like the Falcons, then why didn't
39:39
Speaker 1: I make them higher? I could say, well I did.
39:41
Speaker 1: I did make them higher, because that's always the knock
39:43
Speaker 1: if you tell somebody you know, uh, you like a team,
39:47
Speaker 1: and they say, well, you're the bookmaker. If you like
39:48
Speaker 1: them so much, why didn't you make them higher? And
39:50
Speaker 1: so you really really can't win, you know what I mean?
39:54
Speaker 1: I agree, I totally agree. You know what else? You
39:57
Speaker 1: can't win at scot Roulette. I'm killing fut and I'm
40:00
Speaker 1: taking I'm taking the La la la Minnesota Vikings. Okay,
40:07
Speaker 1: good pick. I'm gonna go with the forty Niners for
40:10
Speaker 1: that reason that I just said. I mean, I know
40:12
Speaker 1: the Ravens are playing the best football of any team
40:15
Speaker 1: in the NFL right now, but the line is deliberately high,
40:19
Speaker 1: so uh, you know it's too high. I'm I'm gonna
40:23
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go to five and a half as
40:24
Speaker 1: soon as we get get off this show. All right, Scooch,
40:27
Speaker 1: you got the Baltimore Ravens, I got the Minnesota Vikings,
40:31
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go with the forty Niners. Seriously, curiously, Oh,
40:36
Speaker 1: you're going with the with the Niners, right, You're going
40:37
Speaker 1: with the Niners. You got the Niners and I got
40:41
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, and you and I will be on
40:45
Speaker 1: the air radio dot com radio dot com app at
40:48
Speaker 1: Action Network h Q on Sunday twelve to one, breaking
40:52
Speaker 1: down all the games. It's the fastest sixty minutes in
40:54
Speaker 1: sports media and also the most informative, most exciting, and
40:57
Speaker 1: most money making tell on that time, Scooch, I want
41:01
Speaker 1: you and your beautiful bridegen to have a great Thanksgiving.
41:04
Speaker 1: I wish you nothing but winners and good attitudes. So
41:08
Speaker 1: when you get home, uh you, guys, don't get into
41:10
Speaker 1: an argument. Shame to you. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. All right, brother,
41:15
Speaker 1: talk to you all right, take care. It's time for
41:19
Speaker 1: the next half of the podcast with professional better Simon
41:24
Speaker 1: Hunter and professional fader Darren Ravel. Darren is just back
41:32
Speaker 1: from a scouting trip for the site of the next
41:36
Speaker 1: trick he will pull in case he loses fade Ravel
41:40
Speaker 1: this week, you want to quickly tell people where you are.
41:42
Speaker 1: You just sent out a picture on Twitter. We are
41:46
Speaker 1: at a bar that has a mechanical ball, so we'll
41:50
Speaker 1: be revealing exactly what I'll be doing, but there'll be
41:53
Speaker 1: parameters that will make it significantly more difficult than just
41:58
Speaker 1: getting on one. You are a trooper, do you know
42:02
Speaker 1: what's upsetting Simon? And now a word from a wise
42:11
Speaker 1: guy with Simon Hunter. Are you there, Simon? Are you there? Simon?
42:19
Speaker 1: Are you there? You know what's upsetting? We went two
42:22
Speaker 1: and three last weekend. Yeah, that was that was a
42:26
Speaker 1: good old kicking the balls. Should have been a four
42:28
Speaker 1: in one week, but bad coaching and bad luck ended
42:31
Speaker 1: up brutal. The side is the side right, as they say,
42:36
Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side, and that's that's true.
42:39
Speaker 1: We just we just got a little bit, a little
42:41
Speaker 1: bit of bad corner there. But hopefully this week we
42:43
Speaker 1: turn turn it around. We straight up lost, Darren, Well,
42:49
Speaker 1: hold on your confidence for the Eagles betting that game.
42:53
Speaker 1: I think there were other games to bet and you
42:55
Speaker 1: just wanted to be sharper than sharp and uh, and
42:58
Speaker 1: we got caught and so you know, now I would
43:01
Speaker 1: say that Dolphins didn't cover. So but all back on
43:04
Speaker 1: them again this week. Well listen, uh the Eagles when
43:08
Speaker 1: we like them, Um did not have all the injuries
43:11
Speaker 1: that the things that have passed through. Yeah, that that was.
43:15
Speaker 1: That was insane. I mean there they started to practice
43:19
Speaker 1: squad guys and then we had um broke. She was
43:22
Speaker 1: it was a good dude. He just had anxiety before
43:24
Speaker 1: the game. So he played a couple of snaps and
43:26
Speaker 1: then he had anxiety. He kept feeling sick, so they
43:29
Speaker 1: took him out. So there their whole right side with
43:31
Speaker 1: him and Lane Johnson to the highest graded offensive liignment
43:35
Speaker 1: in the game, both out. So that that right there,
43:38
Speaker 1: that was just we just got really hit, really unlucky
43:40
Speaker 1: on that Sunday with the injury bug with the Eagles.
43:42
Speaker 1: But that's how it goes sometimes, Darren, you got some
43:47
Speaker 1: games that you feel really good about that I can
43:49
Speaker 1: knock down. Don't start with the knocking down premise, but
43:54
Speaker 1: I have some games. I have Miami plus nine and
43:59
Speaker 1: a half against the Eagles I had. Do you want
44:04
Speaker 1: to go through the whole thing? Let's just do it.
44:07
Speaker 1: I'm in whoa one for one? I don't think we've
44:11
Speaker 1: ever been one for one? Simon, you interview out, Simon,
44:13
Speaker 1: you got an opinion on that. Uh, let's let's find
44:17
Speaker 1: keep going through. I do. I do like the Miami
44:19
Speaker 1: side though, Okay, alright, let's go. I like Arizona plus
44:25
Speaker 1: three against the Rams. I know you're gonna come back
44:27
Speaker 1: and say, yeah, recency bias, recency bias for the Rams. Yeah, there,
44:31
Speaker 1: I think, what are they now? Three and two in
44:33
Speaker 1: the last five weeks. But I like Arizona. I can
44:36
Speaker 1: I think they can hang in there with the big boys.
44:39
Speaker 1: I think their record is not indicative of how good
44:42
Speaker 1: they actually might be. I like plus three Zona against
44:46
Speaker 1: the Rams. Boom, count me in, baby, it's a Thanksgiving miracle.
44:52
Speaker 1: Oh my god, we're gonna go oh and five this week. Okay, well,
44:56
Speaker 1: I'm I'm on. I think gold on. Hold on, Simon's
44:59
Speaker 1: on other side, So we're not going to choose that game. Okay, yeah,
45:02
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want to go against the Rams
45:04
Speaker 1: after they just got blown out embarrassed at home. Now
45:07
Speaker 1: they're going on the road in a game they really need,
45:10
Speaker 1: I guess a team coming off of by This is
45:12
Speaker 1: this kind of game where I could I could see
45:14
Speaker 1: why you like the Cardinals side because what you just
45:16
Speaker 1: said about the Rams, but this is this is a
45:18
Speaker 1: great spot for the Rams. What's your model say, Simon?
45:23
Speaker 1: So well, the fine thing was the look aheadline was
45:26
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, so I thought this was
45:28
Speaker 1: gonna be a trap game for the Rams. But my
45:30
Speaker 1: model has this that minus six for the Rams, and
45:33
Speaker 1: then they reopened this game and minus three, So it's
45:37
Speaker 1: it's public public money is gonna be coming in the Cardinals.
45:40
Speaker 1: But it's just like Carolina Panthers last week, when a
45:43
Speaker 1: team gets blown out at home and then they're comfortable,
45:45
Speaker 1: teams are going on the road to divisional game. I
45:48
Speaker 1: like the back. I like the back of the team
45:50
Speaker 1: that just got blown blown out going to a divisional game. Okay,
45:54
Speaker 1: all right, keep going there. How could I not take
45:59
Speaker 1: the Alice Cowboys on Thanksgiving? Why not take Thanksgiving games?
46:04
Speaker 1: You want to take Thanksgiving games? I do. I like
46:07
Speaker 1: the juice. I don't like Thanksgiving food. I'm gonna be
46:10
Speaker 1: on the couch longer than everyone else. I'll bet it too.
46:14
Speaker 1: But I also want to Thanksgiving game in a super contest. Wait,
46:19
Speaker 1: Darren against I like it. People are saying, you know,
46:24
Speaker 1: people are maybe down on the Cowboys, a little bit
46:27
Speaker 1: as down as they could be, And I like Cowboys
46:34
Speaker 1: bills aren't as good as we think they are. On that.
46:40
Speaker 1: I mean, I gotta modeled at seven. So I've seen
46:43
Speaker 1: a lot of six and a halfs off there for
46:45
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. UM, and it's actually been surprisingly really profitable
46:50
Speaker 1: to take these home favorites on Thanksgiving. UM, so I
46:55
Speaker 1: don't hate it. We can put the Cowboys on the
46:57
Speaker 1: side though, all right, let's put them on the side.
46:59
Speaker 1: There are uh, there are sweet potatoes. All right. I
47:05
Speaker 1: would do two more games. I love Green Bay minus
47:09
Speaker 1: six and a half against the Giants. People are down
47:14
Speaker 1: on them, move on, move on. Yeah, actually the Giant
47:22
Speaker 1: all right. Uh. And and finally, I really want to
47:27
Speaker 1: take the Tampa Bay box plus one on the road
47:31
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. Alright, Tampa Bay is a much better team.
47:40
Speaker 1: All right, let's let me get I think we're locked
47:44
Speaker 1: on Miami. We we love Miami, Okay, definitely going to
47:48
Speaker 1: do that. I'm gonna throw some out there. Uh. And
47:51
Speaker 1: then Simon's gonna steer us in the right direction. Uh, Miami.
47:57
Speaker 1: We like San Francisco. This game should be lined it
48:01
Speaker 1: for I'm getting two points of value here. Just is
48:04
Speaker 1: just just shouldn't be okay, See that? Why that's the
48:07
Speaker 1: sharp You trying to take a game that's difficult. There's
48:10
Speaker 1: no reason to what's difficult about it. I mean it's
48:13
Speaker 1: a ten and one team versus a nine and two team, like, right,
48:17
Speaker 1: So there's no reason for a tenant for a nine
48:19
Speaker 1: or two team to be a six point home favorite.
48:23
Speaker 1: That's too big of a number against a defense as
48:25
Speaker 1: good as they are, as good as the Niners are,
48:28
Speaker 1: that's a no brainer. Simon backed me up, backing you up,
48:32
Speaker 1: and I got a round, Darreniel. We've we've gone two
48:34
Speaker 1: straight weeks now where we've avoided going against Lamar and
48:38
Speaker 1: it's worked out for us. He just like we said
48:41
Speaker 1: last week, he's breaking all the rules of that. That
48:44
Speaker 1: Monday night was not that and there's no locks or
48:47
Speaker 1: whatever people call it, but that's one of those games.
48:49
Speaker 1: Are the rams that this should not have gone blown
48:51
Speaker 1: out like that. That's not that's not common practice when
48:54
Speaker 1: you gamble on football, and I'm terrifying the Ravens. I
48:57
Speaker 1: can't bet against the Ravens. You either got to take
48:59
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Just stay away, and no matter how good
49:02
Speaker 1: their defense is, Chad Lamar is unlike anyone else, So
49:09
Speaker 1: I don't want coaching. The coaching has been incredible, like
49:12
Speaker 1: them them going for it on fourth and four when
49:14
Speaker 1: they're up to fourteen. That just shows how great of
49:17
Speaker 1: a coach Harriball is that he's going to adapt a
49:19
Speaker 1: new age analytics and they're they're doing there. Their coachings
49:24
Speaker 1: are so incredible with what they're doing in Baltimore. That's
49:27
Speaker 1: why this engine turner. And hey, maybe I'll fade out
49:29
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, but right now we can't get in
49:32
Speaker 1: front of this Ravens train. You know what train, We
49:34
Speaker 1: can get in front of the Baker train. Boys, give
49:39
Speaker 1: me the Cleveland Browns as short road favorites against the
49:43
Speaker 1: decimated Duck Hodges lad Pittsburgh Steelers, who are lucky to
49:50
Speaker 1: get out of Cincinnati with a win. Uh yeah, give
49:55
Speaker 1: it you. I would yeah, I'd take it as long
49:57
Speaker 1: as days under three when the contest opens the lines,
50:00
Speaker 1: I'll take it. Great. So guess what, guys, Now we've
50:02
Speaker 1: got Cleveland in Miami. That's who we're riding with in
50:05
Speaker 1: our final weeks when we gotta win, We're going with
50:08
Speaker 1: Cleveland and Miami. Here's one Minnesota three point dog on
50:13
Speaker 1: the road against Seattle. They are playing a team that
50:15
Speaker 1: is just not as good as they are. I like it.
50:20
Speaker 1: I like Minnesota here. I'll take that game over San
50:25
Speaker 1: Francisco Baltimore. Alright, So right now we're Cleveland, we're Cleveland
50:30
Speaker 1: where Miami and we're Minnesota, right and they gotta put
50:34
Speaker 1: one sharp lining? Can we can we take the Giants?
50:38
Speaker 1: I we're doing the Giants. I know, I know what
50:42
Speaker 1: you're thinking there, but this is like, this is just
50:45
Speaker 1: like the Redskins last week. I love the Redskins last week.
50:48
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where people are still thinking
50:50
Speaker 1: the Packers are a really good team because the way
50:52
Speaker 1: they played this year, but they're just a completely different
50:55
Speaker 1: team on the road. So this is back to back
50:58
Speaker 1: road games, and I just think that's a big number
51:02
Speaker 1: six and a half seven. So I'd like the Giants
51:04
Speaker 1: a lot, Darren, Why would you not give Simon what
51:07
Speaker 1: he asked for? He asked for so little when he
51:09
Speaker 1: gives us so much. This is the season of thanks Giving,
51:13
Speaker 1: not thanks knowing. Okay, well, I'm gonna rip you guys
51:18
Speaker 1: to shreds if we lose this one because I don't
51:20
Speaker 1: like it. But that's fine as long as we take
51:23
Speaker 1: New England over Euston. I mean, we're at the point
51:31
Speaker 1: where I think we've only taken New England three times
51:34
Speaker 1: this year and we're one and two with New England. Um,
51:38
Speaker 1: I don't ate the spot. I mean nine three, it's
51:41
Speaker 1: a it's so small. Brady's coming off two games where
51:45
Speaker 1: he's passed like a hundred ninety and two hundred fifteen yards.
51:49
Speaker 1: I I just think, you know, they aren't as good.
51:53
Speaker 1: They are not as good. Uh they're not. They don't
51:56
Speaker 1: seem to be ten in one good. But they just
51:58
Speaker 1: know how to win. And it's only three right now,
52:02
Speaker 1: so I would it was what four and a half?
52:06
Speaker 1: So I like if that number is at three, I
52:09
Speaker 1: like that play. You don't think that's the trap, Darren,
52:13
Speaker 1: I'm a square guy. I don't really. I don't really
52:16
Speaker 1: say well because this is then, this is then, this
52:19
Speaker 1: is that favorite has done really well this year overall
52:22
Speaker 1: the squares or I just I had this game and
52:25
Speaker 1: to pick them, so like in my system, you're getting
52:27
Speaker 1: good value with Texas. But like you said, like we
52:29
Speaker 1: always talked about their the Patriots break all the rules,
52:31
Speaker 1: so we could just stay away. I don't want to
52:33
Speaker 1: take the Patriots. I don't want to take the Patriots either.
52:35
Speaker 1: What about the Chargers? What is your numbers saying about
52:37
Speaker 1: the Chargers? See, like I'm I'm trying to get all
52:42
Speaker 1: the data in this quicks like like it like all
52:44
Speaker 1: in the movies. It's just people, you know, they take
52:46
Speaker 1: stuff and they's plug into a system, the system something
52:48
Speaker 1: to do my system doesn't work that way. It takes
52:50
Speaker 1: a lot of work. So I don't have all the
52:52
Speaker 1: numbers in with Because Darwin James is coming back this
52:55
Speaker 1: week with safety for the Chargers, so that's a huge
52:58
Speaker 1: boost if he is coming back. Um, I would like
53:01
Speaker 1: the Charges in that spot. All right, guys, we need
53:05
Speaker 1: one more game. I would say take I would say Chargers,
53:10
Speaker 1: you would say Tampa Bay. We also have Dallas. Oh, Dallas, Yeah,
53:16
Speaker 1: I mean Thallas isn't battle. We can tex tomorrow about
53:19
Speaker 1: the line because if if if it, if it stays
53:21
Speaker 1: at seven, let's let's not do Dallas because that that
53:24
Speaker 1: that might end up being a push. We can't take
53:25
Speaker 1: any more pushes here, So Dallas less than seven. If
53:29
Speaker 1: not Dallas, then let's flip a coin between Tampa and
53:33
Speaker 1: Sandy and the Chargers. Uh, Simon, you are supposed to
53:38
Speaker 1: be the judge here, So which side do you favor
53:42
Speaker 1: between those two games? Or or is there a game
53:45
Speaker 1: we're not talking about that you feel really strongly about. Um, Well,
53:50
Speaker 1: like the the game we're not really talking about. That's
53:54
Speaker 1: gonna be a really smart sharp line this week. It's
53:59
Speaker 1: gonna be the Falcons. But I honestly I think one
54:03
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games is gonna be enough for us, So we
54:05
Speaker 1: can just we can take that one off. We can
54:07
Speaker 1: go with the Chargers of the least. But in okay, Darren,
54:12
Speaker 1: how do you feel about that? It's okay. I'll take
54:16
Speaker 1: it and and it in it. These picks, you know,
54:20
Speaker 1: don't do well this week. I'm not trying to be pessimistic.
54:22
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take control next week. Okay, that's totally fair.
54:26
Speaker 1: Totally not likely, but totally fair. Thank you. We have Cleveland, Miami,
54:32
Speaker 1: Minnesota Giants for sure, Dallas if it's less than seven Chargers,
54:37
Speaker 1: if it's more than if it's seven or more, boys,
54:40
Speaker 1: we need some winners. We gotta finish the season strong.
54:43
Speaker 1: You know what I'm thankful for. I'm thankful for Simon
54:45
Speaker 1: Hunter reaching out to me on Twitter. I'm thankful for
54:48
Speaker 1: the fact that I am such a mench I respond
54:51
Speaker 1: to everybody and spoke to him, and that he joined
54:54
Speaker 1: the podcast and has given us insights enjoy throughout the
54:58
Speaker 1: NFL season. Darren, I'm also thankful for you. Thanks for nothing, kid,
55:06
Speaker 1: have a great holiday. Talk to you, Simon. All Right,
55:09
Speaker 1: this has been the favorites from the Action Network. I'm
55:13
Speaker 1: wishing all of you a very happy, healthy, wealthy, profitable Thanksgiving.
55:19
Speaker 1: Download the podcast from Apple, podcast from Radio dot com,
55:24
Speaker 1: search for the favorites, or wherever you get your podcasts
55:27
Speaker 1: to make sure you listen to Scooch and I on
55:29
Speaker 1: Radio dot com, the Radio dot Com app, and at
55:31
Speaker 1: Action Network h Q Sunday's twelve to one for the
55:35
Speaker 1: most exciting sixty minutes in sports as we break down
55:37
Speaker 1: every line and all the money that's coming in in
55:40
Speaker 1: real time. Until next time, I Love you,