Latest / What Bitcoin Did / Jeff Booth: Everything They Told You About Money Is Wrong
Transcript
- 0:00They can't see. The moment they're spending right now is the most important thing.
- 0:06An abundance that we can't even imagine because we can't see what's not there.
- 0:11You won't even be able to keep up with the rate of change.
- 0:14You'd expect the centralized system to attack this everywhere.
- 0:18You're going to see supply chain shortages. You're going to see inflation like crazy.
- 0:22Then there's going to be printing into that.
- 0:24Because if there isn't printing into that, there's going to be a deflationary collapse that destroys all money.
- 0:30If what you're saying is right and we're entering this sort of super chaotic period, is the only thing to do hold Bitcoin?
- 0:36If you haven't done the work to understand this and you're trusting somebody else and you don't have agency, then you're likely to get annihilated.
- 0:44But the point here is you have a choice.
- 0:46You've been deceived your entire life.
- 0:48You don't want to believe it.
- 0:50It gets easier when you face the truth.
- 0:54All right, Jeff, my roommate in Costa Rica, you're back on the show.
- 1:01When we were in Costa Rica, we had a few conversations that I think opened my eyes to the way you view the world.
- 1:09And the analogy that I've come to is, you know that scene in The Matrix where Neo sees like the green code for the first time.
- 1:17And he's like, what, you just look at code?
- 1:19And the other guy's like, oh, no, I don't see code.
- 1:21That's like blonde, brunette, redhead.
- 1:23that's like how i view your thesis like when i i see the world i'm a bitcoiner i live on a bitcoin
- 1:30standard i totally understand everything you say in your argument but i struggle to just naturally
- 1:37see the world that way um whereas you seem to see the world and everything fits into your thesis
- 1:42like how do you get to that point um that's a big question and i think before i go there i would say
- 1:53most people see the world and everything fits under their thesis and it reflects back to them
- 1:58and they're completely convinced that they're right and and they can't see other people's
- 2:06view because their their their their reflection of the world is is true to them so you probably
- 2:15heard me say before many times that our reflection of the world is us, right? The world we observe
- 2:24is literally a reflection of our thoughts, reactions, and we create that too.
- 2:33And so when I say that, some people think that, okay, that's true for Jeff, but it's not true
- 2:39for me. But I didn't say it's true for me. I said it's true for every single person.
- 2:45So, so your construct of what reality is to you is true for you and, and you will make it true. You will, you will sort information to make it true. You will, you will ensure that that view cannot be distorted.
- 3:04and it'd be other people's problem.
- 3:10And when you look around the world
- 3:11and you look at everybody else viewing the world
- 3:14and how could they think the world looks like that?
- 3:20And you think they're like completely crazy?
- 3:24If you realize the entire world looks like that,
- 3:27then you must be subject to the same thing.
- 3:30So then how would you know?
- 3:32So how would I know that my view of reality or what I call reality is true for me?
- 3:40And I would need an outside objective measure because it's not true, true.
- 3:47It's a belief system that feeds back on itself.
- 3:52So how would I know my belief system is right for me?
- 3:56is probably, that takes us, that could take us down a crazy journey.
- 4:06And one of the things I constantly think about in my own journey to this,
- 4:11and we'll go into Bitcoin and what, so, but if everyone else believes their truth
- 4:16unconditionally and they'll push back and they'll fight people and they'll so sure,
- 4:22then and they're only human then wouldn't that mean that i would be subject to the same thing
- 4:32and so how would i know i spend a lot of time on i spend a lot of time in how would i know what is
- 4:40actually the sand down to the sand what is true for sure um and then and then how do i reconstruct
- 4:49my actions and reality from that truth for sure. And I'm constantly challenging those assumptions
- 5:00as well. So I know that's probably a different answer than you were looking for. And now we can
- 5:07take that into why I wrote the book, what Bitcoin is to me, what that looks like to me. But I think
- 5:17that's the fundamental thing. I wonder, I'm constantly curious, if we live in this matrix
- 5:26of all of these ideas bouncing into each other, and I'm a construct of a whole bunch of ideas of
- 5:35people that touched me in my life that have changed me. In other words, those people are in me.
- 5:41what's already in me, and I believe a certain version of the world,
- 5:47and then until I don't, and then it changes, and I'm different,
- 5:52then that means that those intersections of people touching me
- 5:56impact me in a big way.
- 6:00And then you watch other people have the same interactions,
- 6:06but nothing changes in their life.
- 6:09their belief system just carries on and and what could be a zero to one moment and have
- 6:16something that totally changed they're so they're so dealing in their past reality is their reality
- 6:25that they can't see that the moment in front of them the moment they're spending right now is the
- 6:31most important thing so they don't never see the change that could change everything in the future
- 6:36and they continue to stay in a very narrow path of a belief system.
- 6:43So there's a load in there that I want to dig into.
- 6:45But the first one, you said everyone believes their own truth.
- 6:49And I agree with that, but I don't know if everyone has thought as deeply as you have about this.
- 6:57So for all the people that are still supporting and living within the current system that we have,
- 7:03I don't think they're necessarily viewing that as the right thing to do or the good thing to do.
- 7:09I think they're just seeing it as this is the way it is.
- 7:13And what I've never fully got is like what has to change for that to change?
- 7:19Yeah, and that's why, so this is all of us in every single 8 billion people on the planet.
- 7:27So if there are 8 billion people on the planet going through a structural change, and most people were fighting that structural change because of their own beliefs from past biases, then the expectation would be this would be really hard.
- 7:44because most of the people, and it would be really noisy,
- 7:49because most of the people were feeding back against the system
- 7:54that they said they hated and using the exact same money
- 7:58that they said they hated to increase the power of the state
- 8:04and the system over them.
- 8:08And what they would find is they would find always somebody else.
- 8:14They would find Candace Owens.
- 8:16They would find Tucker Carlson.
- 8:17They would find good people yelling at the system, but with no solution to the system.
- 8:27And so they would find themselves in this hate, right?
- 8:33That they didn't know that they were creating because they were using the same money that funded it all.
- 8:41and they would find belonging in that hate.
- 8:47They would find, I know more than those other people,
- 8:51those stupid other people.
- 8:54And it would feel like love.
- 8:56It would feel like belonging.
- 8:58It would feel like I know something that the rest of the people don't do.
- 9:01And that would expand everywhere
- 9:02while using the exact same money that funds the entire thing.
- 9:07and and and when i look at when i look at that i totally understand it's natural it's what people
- 9:13do um i but but i wonder why i wonder i wonder if you if you can't solve the problem
- 9:24what are you doing right so what are what are you doing to actually solve the problem
- 9:30And what, because what it's actually saying is in all of those versions of their realities is somebody else will save me instead of I have agency.
- 9:45Every single other version says somebody else is to blame.
- 9:50But by the way, we would easily see, we would easily see in a world that looked like this, we would easily not see our own agency.
- 10:00And we would easily see that we would be led to believe from that same system that it's not you, it's somebody else.
- 10:09And we would want to believe that because it couldn't be us.
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- 12:45Because everything is downstream of money,
- 12:48is it possible to have agency without Bitcoin?
- 12:52So that's actually why I don't think so.
- 12:54So, you know, I've started, and why I continually start with, here's the thing that I feel like even with you, right, in Costa Rica is talking, but in, like, we're good friends.
- 13:10You inspire me in this space.
- 13:13there's so many people who have different views and everything else that same similar to to that
- 13:20make me smarter in this space either or try to clarify what i'm saying to bring it tighter and
- 13:27tighter and something that's so obvious to me that uh but but when i watch this space evolve
- 13:33right and i and i and i and i try to put simple language to something that's really complex um
- 13:41when I start with the natural state of the free market is deflation.
- 13:46People laugh at that because I say it over and over and over again.
- 13:50And you're smiling now.
- 13:52But if you think of the magnitude of those, what is it, seven words,
- 13:58what they actually mean to every other nonsense that you've ever heard
- 14:03and that you choose.
- 14:06So when I say that, I mean, entrepreneurs have to, whether you're working for an entrepreneur, you're working for a new business, or you're an entrepreneur, in the free market, you have to create more value for somebody else to get paid.
- 14:26If you don't, the company fails.
- 14:30Why does a company fail?
- 14:32Because us as users, us as purchasers of the product or service, demand more value.
- 14:42So how could those two things, right?
- 14:45You have to create more value than what was there before, and we use more value.
- 14:51how could those two things in a free market not produce more value it's it and why i try to
- 15:01drive into this so carefully is because it has to and people can hear these words and you've heard
- 15:09these words and you smile at these words without thinking about the repercussions of the world
- 15:14the imaginary world that you've always lived in that looks nothing like i just described
- 15:20And so if you had one, the natural state of the free market is deflation, you had two, our ideas move exponentially to create more value, then three, you would expect exponential deflation or prices falling or value increasing for humanity.
- 15:41four you would expect with ai where it's going every single person to be able to contribute
- 15:48to humanity and accelerate that curve and you would expect an abundance that we can't even
- 15:56imagine because we can't see what's not there we can't even measure what's not there we measure
- 16:01from the other system so but if those things are true and they are most certainly true
- 16:06If those things are true, then the entire nonsense, everything we've been taught about economics, every single other thing means we lose our agency to somebody else's agency.
- 16:22We, everything is, and we trust the economists, we trust Trump, we trust Biden, we trust, somebody else always has to be the person that we trust because we don't live in a free market.
- 16:36And so it's actually really simple. It's really simple. Now, the only question now, the next question, a derivative of that question, can Bitcoin withstand all of our nonsense actions trying to stop it?
- 16:55That was going to be exactly my next question because there's never been a time in history where Bitcoin has been more ingrained in the old financial system.
- 17:05And can it remain a free market?
- 17:09So then to that degree, what you would have to do, and this is where I've spent a lot of time, a lot of time.
- 17:19Why would I believe it does?
- 17:21And I'm going to talk about this in my speech in Vegas.
- 17:27But why I believe it does is because of people like you.
- 17:31And I mean that actually very seriously because of people like you that are bringing this to other people, even if you didn't know it all the way to the sand.
- 17:39Right But um and and and not just you but all of the others that I meet every day who are who know this as a protocol emerging in layers and are building on a protocol And if you added up all of those people it might only be 10 people
- 18:00Many of them private for most of the nonsense.
- 18:04But building protocol technology in service of humankind that is the free market and protecting it.
- 18:13And what would you expect?
- 18:15you'd expect the centralized system to attack this everywhere but and and so if there were
- 18:2410 000 people like let's call it 10 000 and there's probably 10 000 it might even be be more but you
- 18:30have to assume some of those 10 000 people will sell for pieces of paper and go back to the other
- 18:35system right so um and they'll be replaced with more and more people that are understanding this
- 18:40and developing in as this changes,
- 18:45then those 10,000 people are against,
- 18:48not against, but are building the future.
- 18:54Their actions are building the future
- 18:56that 8 billion people don't know yet.
- 19:02And so if you looked at the market at any given time,
- 19:07the expectation would be the noise
- 19:09of all of these other people with their own observations
- 19:12of what Bitcoin is to them or what money is to them
- 19:16or who should be in charge of money.
- 19:20All of those people would drown out these people.
- 19:24But they wouldn't drown out these people inside that bubble.
- 19:30And so what I live in every day is circular economies,
- 19:36expansion, a network effect on Bitcoin that is like, it's just, it's so incredible.
- 19:42What I live in is, and I recognize that for somebody observing the system without living
- 19:51like I do, investing in these companies, investing in these people, seeing who these people were,
- 19:58and they're never going back, no matter what. If I didn't, if I wasn't here, I can imagine what
- 20:06they would think about what this looked like. So now how do I know I'm right? If they all think
- 20:12they're right inside a system that has to steal their money to be able to, and they stay in it,
- 20:20how could I know I'm right? And why I know I'm right is objectively, I'm watching more and more
- 20:27people build this. I'm watching more and more layers being built on top of Bitcoin. I'm watching
- 20:33prices relative to Bitcoin fall exactly as I would expect them to fall. Not that all the risks don't
- 20:40exist because if all of these people stopped tomorrow and said, ah, nice experiment, let's go
- 20:47back, then Bitcoin wouldn't be a thing. This is why, like, one of the things I've said over and
- 20:53over again is Bitcoin without the freedom money aspect isn't interesting to me. And this is exactly
- 20:58why. And to get back to your point a little earlier, you said like the people that aren't
- 21:02going to leave Bitcoin. This is a thing that I say over and over again. It's like people ask you
- 21:06when you're going to sell Bitcoin. And I'm like, sell it for what? I'm not going to sell it for
- 21:10more dollars, that's for sure. But the thing that I will do at some point is sell it to buy my family
- 21:17a nice house. And does that reinforce the old system? Because when I do that, I'm going to do
- 21:23it with as big a mortgage as possible to basically short the fiat system with the housing market.
- 21:28And is that not a reinforcement of that system?
- 21:32So why do houses have as much value as they have?
- 21:36They have as much value as they have because money is broken, right?
- 21:40Yeah.
- 21:40And so when you decide to make that, so I've told this story many times, right?
- 21:44My house five, six years ago was 300 Bitcoin.
- 21:48Now it's 15 Bitcoin.
- 21:53So pretend I don't have a house and I have 300 Bitcoin.
- 21:58then I can choose when to buy that house,
- 22:04and I can buy it for one Bitcoin if I want to hold off,
- 22:07or I can buy it for 15 Bitcoin,
- 22:10or I can put a mortgage down and buy it for one Bitcoin
- 22:15and have a mortgage.
- 22:17All of these are free choices,
- 22:19as this new system imposes discipline around the other.
- 22:24And each choice has repercussions.
- 22:30So when you buy a house, you're choosing to buy now for your lifestyle of your family, which is totally fine.
- 22:38Which was meaning you're going to distribute your Bitcoin to other people.
- 22:42And other people are going to take them and then buy a house later for less Bitcoin.
- 22:48And it's just part of the evolution of this thing repricing the entire world.
- 22:54that has to look like this. And each of our choices in a free market, when we want value,
- 23:01when we decide that this is the right price for us, is part of those choices.
- 23:07But you are kind of propping up the debt Ponzi for a period of time though, while this happens.
- 23:15So let's change that subject or tackle this from a different way. In the next little while
- 23:23in the economy,
- 23:25you're going to see supply chain shortages,
- 23:27you're going to see inflation like crazy,
- 23:29you're going to see crazy,
- 23:31and then there's going to be printing into that.
- 23:34Because if there isn't printing into that,
- 23:36there's going to be a deflationary collapse
- 23:38from money that can't allow deflation
- 23:41that destroys all money.
- 23:44And so there is going to be,
- 23:46and it's likely an order of magnitude higher
- 23:49than what COVID was.
- 23:51as that happens and pushes prices up like crazy at the same time as jobs are leaving the market
- 23:59because the businesses the businesses have to use ai to get you to use their system to remove the job
- 24:07because if they don't um you won't use their system because you won't have the money so you're
- 24:12going to create so you're going to create this inflationary pulse massive inflationary pulse
- 24:18There's going to be food insecurity. There's going to be uprisings all over the world and everything else because fertilizers are also going up in price. And all of these inputs are going up in price. At the same time, there's going to be massive printing to save the financial system.
- 24:34at that time at that time that inflation is going to cause um demand destruction
- 24:42right because people won't be able to afford it their jobs and what they get paid especially in
- 24:49the businesses that pay them that are going to have to shed that there's going to be massive
- 24:53demand destruction and it's going to collapse in a deflationary spiral so now let's say and so
- 25:00these things, if you look back into Weimar Germany, as it was going through this, you see this chart
- 25:06that goes up and down and up and down, and it flushes people up and down and down. We're used
- 25:11to living in stability. But when it looks like that, and we think we're outsmarting the market,
- 25:19we're going to take massive leverage at the time, thinking it's going to be devalued,
- 25:24and then it's going to go into deflation, and we're going to owe the leverage, and we're going
- 25:27it wiped out. So a lot of people inside of this system, and it has nothing to do with Bitcoin,
- 25:35zero to do with Bitcoin, that this is happening. It has to do with money being debased at a crazy
- 25:43rate and physics coming due, right? And the free market coming due and a realization that we live
- 25:53in a nonsensical world that is more and more controlled.
- 25:58And this is going to create psychological breaks everywhere too in people
- 26:02because they're not going to be ready.
- 26:05They're thinking they're living in a normal world
- 26:07that's always looked this way.
- 26:10And it's not going to look that way.
- 26:11And so let's say now you, Danny, take this
- 26:17and take a huge mortgage, Bitcoin, at this time,
- 26:21And then mortgage rates go way up at the wrong time.
- 26:27And what does that do to you when you think you played the game properly?
- 26:31So from the other system, which is growing in instability and has to do a certain number of things,
- 26:39which have second order consequences to people and third order consequences to people,
- 26:44and those people change what they think from that, you can expect this crazy chaos.
- 26:51Or you could just hold your Bitcoin.
- 26:55Just stay in stability.
- 26:57Yeah, and no matter what side of it, you're going to win.
- 27:04Now, we look back to fonder times and say, I want a family home.
- 27:11I want it to look like that.
- 27:12I want a white picket fence with the kids and everything else.
- 27:14In the next little while in where we're going, it's unlikely to look like the past 30 years, past 40 years.
- 27:25It was a construct out of manipulated money that felt right.
- 27:32And that construct is going to break down.
- 27:34and so
- 27:35so
- 27:36so
- 27:36so all of these
- 27:38individual choices
- 27:40including in bitcoin
- 27:41right
- 27:42are going to long
- 27:43for those times
- 27:44and make choices
- 27:46and they're going to sell
- 27:46their bitcoin
- 27:47and then
- 27:47many people will sell
- 27:49all their bitcoin
- 27:50for the pieces of paper
- 27:51then it will go to zero
- 27:52and
- 27:54all they'll do
- 27:55is distribute their bitcoin
- 27:56if you just
- 27:57stay with
- 27:58the natural state
- 27:59of the free market
- 28:00is deflation
- 28:01exponentially
- 28:03exponential technology gains should mean exponential deflation or prices falling or
- 28:10abundance if bitcoin stayed decentralized and secure it is measuring that and just stay there
- 28:18everything else is uh everything else the problem and what you're doing and house the question too
- 28:25what you're doing is an emotional need to what does security look like and family look like to you
- 28:32tied to an old system wanting that wanting that to be true but it's no longer but but it's it's
- 28:40less and less true if what you're saying is right and we're entering this
- 28:44sort of super chaotic period is the only thing to do hold bitcoin so it so that would be so
- 28:52imagine you so now that's an entirely different vector you just hold bitcoin um you don't spend it
- 28:59If you just held Bitcoin and didn't spend it, and it looked like that, then Bitcoin would get centralized, just like people held gold.
- 29:08And they used a monetary system that they knew was always broken.
- 29:13And why they needed an asset underpinning the monetary system is because the monetary system was broken.
- 29:20And so Bitcoin is different in that way, in that you don't need an asset underneath the monetary system because the money isn't broken.
- 29:29The money itself is the network and you can store your money in money without having to store it in a piece of paper tied to a broken monetary system. So that change is another huge change in our perspective of what reality looks like.
- 29:49Now, in Bitcoin, you have a whole camp of people talking about digital credit and what that would look like. You have an entire camp of people that believe that this is the strongest asset in the world, but it's not money. It's credit.
- 30:11Well, what is credit?
- 30:13Credit is loaned into existence from nothing.
- 30:16So if you had the strongest asset in the world
- 30:18and you had this credit that was loaned into existence for nothing,
- 30:22then most people would centralize their Bitcoin
- 30:26just like they centralize gold.
- 30:31And you would have this nonsense system of broken money on top of gold.
- 30:37And then what would happen eventually is gold would break.
- 30:40You'd reprice gold.
- 30:41And so we can expect, if we look back at history and we know human nature, we can expect these things to happen. We can expect lots of people to be fooled, just like they were in FTX, just like they were in some of these others, and like they will be again.
- 30:56we can expect tons of people to go into etfs trusting somebody else removing their own agency
- 31:04and and and trusting somebody else to get a higher yield
- 31:10um and and if if bitcoin all look like that if it looked like that it won't
- 31:17um but if it all looked like that it would fail so like you're obviously talking about sailor there
- 31:25I want to be careful
- 31:28of this because I can
- 31:30coexist in a world that I like
- 31:32Saylor I think he's good for
- 31:34Bitcoin I think he does a lot of great
- 31:36things I actually like the
- 31:37investor in the business at least in my
- 31:40RRSP investor in the business
- 31:42but
- 31:43think he's brilliant
- 31:45but also disagree with him
- 31:48on a fundamental premise
- 31:49of
- 31:50and he can be right
- 31:54for a long time
- 31:55he can actually be, he can consolidate a lot of Bitcoin
- 31:59by telling the world that it's just an asset.
- 32:05But that is fundamentally different than it is money
- 32:10and it is used as money.
- 32:13And so I can like him.
- 32:16I can think he's really smart.
- 32:19I can see a lot of things that he does that are well for this.
- 32:22And I can disagree with him that I believe it's a protocol and the protocol is emerging as money and privacy and everything else. It's a new internet protocol.
- 32:35So, and so, and I, that's why I want to be careful of the creating an us versus them and everything.
- 32:45Cause it is really easy to bite and say, yeah, he's terrible and everything else.
- 32:50He's done a lot of great things for Bitcoin and a whole bunch of people that have understood his actions in Bitcoin will then in turn understand it's a protocol.
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- 34:56that's b-i-t-k-e-y dot world and use the code w-b-d so i like i agree with that sailor's
- 35:04clearly a genius um i think he's been good for bitcoin but i also would agree with you on the
- 35:10digital credit part but is there a world where that can be a dangerous narrative for bitcoin
- 35:14yes yes so so that digital credit narrative will get wiped out
- 35:21not might get wiped out it's it's binary an inflationary system
- 35:29is opposite from the free market an inflationary system must centralize
- 35:37if you using digital credit on top of bitcoin and trust somebody else with your keys it is being centralized
- 35:47And at some point that's going to create a chain fork in Bitcoin.
- 35:52And one of those two, it's binary.
- 35:55One will win, one will not.
- 35:57If you were the U.S. government and you were saying,
- 35:59I need my U.S. dollars to be the strongest,
- 36:03You would try to co-opt Bitcoin to using Tether and stable coins and everything else to concentrate other people so they don't hold their keys to concentrate enough Bitcoin.
- 36:20But the concentrating enough Bitcoin in sheer volume doesn't concentrate the nodes, doesn't concentrate the votes, doesn't concentrate the activity on Bitcoin.
- 36:34And so by doing that, you're taking massive risk by trusting somebody else with your keys.
- 36:41The is eventually has to stop, because the inflationary system has to stop the deflationary one.
- 36:47or said differently, the system of abuse or centralization that we've always lived in
- 36:55can't allow the free market. But the point here is you have a choice. Your actions determine the
- 37:02choice. And what gives me so much confidence in my choice being the one that's going to resolve
- 37:10and win is it's not alone.
- 37:13It's with thousands, tens of thousands of other people.
- 37:17And most of those people are hardly even known.
- 37:20And that's the number that goes up.
- 37:21Their heart and soul of Bitcoin
- 37:23and they're proving it with their actions every day.
- 37:27And so when I watch what's happening there
- 37:29and the emergence of the protocol
- 37:32and developing privacy and everything else
- 37:35and money and circular economies
- 37:38against what I would expect to happen
- 37:41with the vast majority of most people
- 37:43getting stuck in the old system.
- 37:46It's just, I expect it.
- 37:48I completely expect it.
- 37:50I expect it to,
- 37:51and then now if you're taking,
- 37:53if you have,
- 37:55if you don't hold your own coins,
- 37:57if you don't hold your own keys,
- 38:00if you haven't trusted,
- 38:01if you haven't done the work to understand this
- 38:03and you're trusting somebody else
- 38:04and you don't have agency,
- 38:05then you're likely to get annihilated so when you say that digital credit can't survive
- 38:14does that mean you don't think strategy as a business model will survive
- 38:18no i think i i think that that depending on how much uh
- 38:23so so i think strategy as a business model could actually do extraordinarily well um and
- 38:32And because we're so early in this change, but many others will get hurt along the way.
- 38:40And strategy could get hurt if they're over-levered against a deflationary collapse.
- 38:48At some point, they could get really hurt.
- 38:53But I don't think they are over-levered.
- 38:56I think what you're talking about, I think Saylor is brilliant.
- 38:58I think he understands the game that is being played.
- 39:02He might not be able to, as a public company,
- 39:06he might not be able to talk like I talk.
- 39:10You're part of your public company
- 39:12and you might get tapped on the shoulder and say,
- 39:15hey, and all of the people around,
- 39:20you can't go against the US dollar.
- 39:24I've always had that opinion.
- 39:26I think Saylor has left the US dollar alone very purposefully.
- 39:31I don't know if he said that he doesn't think Bitcoin is a threat to the US dollar.
- 39:35I don't know if he believes that or if that's just the line he has to toe.
- 39:39Yeah, I would just say, keep going back to what I said in the beginning.
- 39:43Natural state of the free market is deflation.
- 39:45It means every single human being on the planet is working for you, trying to create value for you.
- 39:51if you take where ai is going and where it is today that means eight billion people can create
- 39:58new apps new technologies and attempt right now using the technology we have right now
- 40:03to collapse price and deliver you more value and you're only going to use the things that
- 40:08deliver you more value so how in that world how possibly in that world could that be inflationary
- 40:17it's impossible
- 40:21the free market is
- 40:23massive abundance
- 40:26delivered by you
- 40:28you choosing more value
- 40:30and the other system is a control system
- 40:33whether it's US dollar
- 40:34yuan, everything else
- 40:36and the emergence of the US
- 40:39as the greatest nation
- 40:40in the world was actually
- 40:42the free market
- 40:43if you look at in the 1800s
- 40:47you had something called the great deflation
- 40:49and what it was
- 40:51there's a whole bunch of people moving to the U.S. from these countries where they couldn't make it.
- 40:57Yeah.
- 40:57So, their ideas could make it. And those ideas create the value. So, those ideas of creating
- 41:05value for other people is the thing that creates value for all people. And the more you constrain
- 41:11that so so let's go into a different vector of what we're talking about which is which is so if
- 41:21you have an inflationary system that punishes people that most people can't contribute
- 41:26and you only very few people can contribute then all society suffers you know when you wrote this
- 41:35book um ai was obviously a pretty big part of it but i think the did the book come out in 2019 is
- 41:41that right yeah yeah so the it while it was a big part of the book there was not that much happening
- 41:47in the ai space at that time like it was all very behind the scenes and then today like it's crazy
- 41:54like the rate of change is unbelievable these are getting super powerful and only they're basically
- 41:59on like an exponential curve upwards does that speed up your timeline of when you think this
- 42:04change will come no it's been the same timeline all along so when i wrote the book so so you
- 42:09remember in the book that i wrote about the paper folding and and i wrote it's like 50 folds get
- 42:15you to the sun or whatever it is exactly but most most people guess two inches at 50 folds you can
- 42:22only fold a piece of paper seven times but if you could continue folding it it reaches from here to
- 42:27the sun and most people when i say most people 99.999 percent guess two inches um it means we
- 42:35can't understand exponentials but that um but what i what i wrote and i'm pretty sure i wrote
- 42:42exactly this in in the ai chapter that it's been the exact same rate since the 50s it's just the
- 42:49first fold created the first ai winter because the expectations were do everything and it did nothing
- 42:56and then there was another ai winter in the late 70s 80s and the expectation that now is the time
- 43:03and call it fold 15 or 16,
- 43:08that now is the time it's going to do everything.
- 43:11And then the fold just kept on,
- 43:12now they're bigger steps.
- 43:14But now what does that mean?
- 43:15So this is why,
- 43:16like nothing I wrote has changed
- 43:19and nothing in the future,
- 43:20you can see perfectly what's going to happen
- 43:22out of what I wrote then.
- 43:25This is the slowest by far
- 43:28that AI is ever going to get.
- 43:30And every day you hear something,
- 43:32oh my God, Claude just removed,
- 43:33this now it's open source because it's now in Rust libraries that's yesterday and then DeepSeek
- 43:40comes out and then this so it's every day you're going to hear these things and you won't even be
- 43:46able to keep up with the rate of change because it's moving at such a rate so the AI where you're
- 43:52using today is by far the worst it's ever going to be and that means that AI is going to be free
- 44:00it's going to be abundant, it's going to be ubiquitous, and it's going to tie into physical
- 44:08goods too, robots and different physical goods that are going to do the same thing, create that
- 44:13abundance in all of those jobs and such everywhere. It's inevitable, right? And that's what I wrote
- 44:21about in my book. And you knew exactly where it'd be now. So nothing's changed. It hasn't
- 44:27accelerate at all. It's exactly the same path I wrote about in my book and why you needed
- 44:31honest money because a debt-based system couldn't allow that deflation.
- 44:39You know, you say humans can't understand exponentials, which is like the first time
- 44:42I heard the paper analogy, I got it miles wrong. Do you understand? How do you see this?
- 44:49So what I recognize is if every, I always ask myself, if everyone else is confused,
- 44:55I must be too. That's my starting position. So where might I be confused? Even when I wrote that,
- 45:03and when I came up with the paper folding analogy for the book, and the same analogy
- 45:11is the rice on the chessboard doubling. You've heard that one?
- 45:18I don't know if I have heard that one.
- 45:19So it's an ancient story. Somebody tells the king of China, I will four X, I will each grain of rice. So you need to double a grain of rice on each chessboard piece and the grains of rice take over the entire kingdom.
- 45:39right there's something so and um but you hear something like that you hear something you hear
- 45:46exponential patterns and then your brain goes yeah i get it one nice trick what a cool story and then
- 45:51you go straight back into your linear life and so so these things that that i realize other people do
- 45:58then i realize i must too and i work really hard to try to say to error correct that thing and and
- 46:06adjust my thinking for the thing that i'm not used to thinking so not perfect not uh but but
- 46:15those when i see something when i observe something in everybody else i realize it must be in me too
- 46:21and when you say that like with the ai growth it's going to get to the point where you can't
- 46:27even keep up i feel that we're really close to that now we're past that now yeah and that's
- 46:33obviously very linked to the sort of debt-based system that we live in because ai is going to be
- 46:38hugely disruptive and earlier in the show you were talking about us going into this really chaotic
- 46:42time do you think this is the final sort of debt bubble debt cycle that we're going to go through
- 46:49before something actually breaks and we have entirely different system on the other side
- 46:53yes
- 46:54really good question
- 46:56I suspect not
- 46:58and
- 47:00it could be
- 47:02when I say agency
- 47:03let's just do a toy experiment
- 47:06if everyone today
- 47:08stopped using
- 47:10pieces of paper
- 47:12and used Bitcoin
- 47:13if they knew what you knew
- 47:15and were actually living in Bitcoin
- 47:16and building in this
- 47:18how fast the world would move to abundance
- 47:21would be
- 47:23It would take your breath away.
- 47:25It would be so crazy.
- 47:27There would be a repricing of everything.
- 47:29It would be all in Bitcoin.
- 47:32We're using Bitcoin.
- 47:33It would take your breath away.
- 47:35So then the question is to your thing,
- 47:39it has nothing to do with Bitcoin
- 47:40because we know that's true.
- 47:44And we know we can make it stronger
- 47:45with our actions within it.
- 47:47Yet we choose not to.
- 47:49the vast majority of people have their agency giving their agency away and so it's not about
- 47:57bitcoin it's about us and so what would be more likely if if what i said that somebody
- 48:06and you can see this in other countries you can see a currency completely lose everything
- 48:12complete reset people lose everything and then go back immediately to believing in that currency
- 48:19that's way more likely why like why does that happen what's the the sort of game theory behind
- 48:27that so it happens because because we we don't want to look at first that we don't want to look
- 48:35at these first principles like so what i talk about over and over and over again like i might
- 48:40say they they it's actually really simple you could explain economics to a five-year-old
- 48:47We compete to provide value to other people in the world, and we use the things that give us more value. That's it. That's it. There is no more to economics.
- 49:01meaning everything the construction of our belief system
- 49:06inside those other people who are smarter than us
- 49:11is is so wound it part of our psyche that we don't want to take our we don't want to claim our
- 49:18own agency i don't i find it really hard to understand that mindset though like when i first
- 49:23got into bitcoin um it was almost like hearing a conspiracy theory in the sense that it was like
- 49:30everything that you think every way that you think the world works is actually wrong and but
- 49:36unlike other conspiracy theories it had an answer like bitcoin was the answer to this other system
- 49:41um and as soon as i heard that i was like if you're telling me there's this asymmetric bet that i can
- 49:46make that there's a ton of fraud and ponzi-like dynamics with the debt-based system then i'm going
- 49:52to take that bet every single day and i don't know how once the curtain gets pulled back people can
- 49:57still opt to live in that other system. I can't tell you why. I can just observe what is.
- 50:05And if you looked around the world today, what do most people do? They live in that other system.
- 50:12And they might hear this. I was just at lunch. I was just at lunch with people who've read my book
- 50:18three times. And they said the exact same thing. I know it's true, but I'm spending all of my time
- 50:26in the other system but it i guess it is hard to break out of but one of the things you've said a
- 50:32few times in this is that you know it's true and i i believe that you know it's true but what
- 50:38happened what has to happen for it to be like provably true so it's a so it's a really good
- 50:47you know in bitcoin there's uh if you're intj entj it's a very small fraction of the population
- 50:55but it's a really high percentage of Bitcoiners.
- 51:01This is on the personality test thing.
- 51:03Personality test.
- 51:04I think it's because people that are that,
- 51:08not that they're better or worse,
- 51:11but they can handle an abstract concept.
- 51:14They can hold it and realize that
- 51:16they in turn create reality of the new thing.
- 51:20Where other people need to see the thing
- 51:23logically fitted in and it feeds back and everything else. So if you have this new,
- 51:30new thing that's never existed before, that's really abstract and it's protocol emerging in
- 51:37layers and that has so many layers, then the people that are being most attracted to that
- 51:42new, new thing would be the people that would drive into, wait, how could the world look?
- 51:50and what are my actions in creating the world to look like that?
- 51:54And that wouldn't make the other people bad.
- 51:57They would just need to see more and more evidence of that working.
- 52:02And there wouldn't be evidence because it was emergent.
- 52:06It was emergent from the actions that people took.
- 52:10And so I think that's why.
- 52:12I think that we just have different strengths, weaknesses.
- 52:19each person has different strengths or weaknesses,
- 52:22and some people are more likely to grab onto something like this
- 52:27that creates something totally different,
- 52:31and some people need to wait until it's proven in their minds.
- 52:37And so what would that feel to people that are used to measuring
- 52:42physical reality from proof, from a system designed against them?
- 52:49It would be really chaotic, right?
- 52:51Because this new thing would feel abstract.
- 52:53It would feel like what I'm talking about right now is word salad.
- 52:58They wouldn't be able to hold on to an abstract concept that was emerging.
- 53:04They would hold on to, I have pieces of paper, and the government says they're real, and here's how GDP works, and everything that they believe from their system, they would hold on to that.
- 53:19I remember when I don know a few maybe like a year ago Brandon Quitton put a thing on Twitter trying to get people to do that personality test and he was taking data of it And I was like oh I be different And so I did the test and yeah I was one of the two groups that basically every Bitcoin falls into Which is a really like that is strange that it has attracted that particular
- 53:38sort of personality type over others.
- 53:42But one of the interesting things is that
- 53:44as you get more and more into Bitcoin,
- 53:47talking about the price becomes less of a talking point.
- 53:49No one really desperately wants to talk.
- 53:52Like when we meet up,
- 53:53how many times did we talk about the price of Bitcoin?
- 53:55Like zero.
- 53:55but like safe dean said something to me that i thought was really interesting when i had him on
- 54:00the show he he said that the price is the ultimate scoreboard because that's how we see how much
- 54:06we're winning if bitcoin goes to a million dollars is that your thesis proven out as you were right
- 54:12no no so but but again i i can totally accept somebody else's observation of what they think
- 54:20it is to win and have a different observation of what I think it looks like to win.
- 54:25When I think about, so let me talk about Saifedean, what he just said in the way that I would look at
- 54:37that. We know in Fiatland, prices are imagined. You print more money and house prices go up and
- 54:48asset prices go up, but it's all an imaginary construct from infinite units that are able to
- 54:56be printed infinite. If you have infinite units pricing the world and you keep on printing those,
- 55:01all prices will rise. So house prices and everything else would rise. If you had non-infinite units in
- 55:08Bitcoin, then those will rise to against that dollar. And all of it will be, if you said pricing,
- 55:16will be kind of an illusion because it's based,
- 55:23that price based in US dollars is based on an infinite variable.
- 55:27If you said what should happen in a free market is prices fall
- 55:31of everything, and they might fall really fast
- 55:36because some of that money has already gone to money heaven.
- 55:42It's just been propped up, right?
- 55:44It's completely gone.
- 55:47And so some of those companies are going to fail spectacularly.
- 55:51They're going to be wiped out.
- 55:53But if you just looked at the trend, you could just say, if the natural state of the free market is deflation, and we know it is for sure, and if Bitcoin stayed decentralized and secure, it will price number one.
- 56:10No matter what.
- 56:12It will price the free market.
- 56:14And then if the free market is, now we don't live in a free market.
- 56:18So there's all these crazy prices all over the places.
- 56:23And so some prices are going to fall like in a straight line.
- 56:30But over time anyways, this is going to reprice everything.
- 56:34If it stays decentralized and secure.
- 56:37And so I don't, that's why I don't think in price and fiat dollar.
- 56:40because it takes Bitcoin into the denominator of something that's infinite
- 56:46and tries to pull me back to the other system.
- 56:54I just think about goods and services priced in Bitcoin.
- 56:59Now, that's hard to do.
- 57:01It's almost like if you're the first time you've traveled a lot in the world,
- 57:07when we went to Costa Rica,
- 57:09when you're changing your US dollars for cloning
- 57:13and you're trying to figure out
- 57:16what does this mean for goods and services
- 57:18and everything else
- 57:19it's a mental tax that you're constantly having to do
- 57:23it's the same thing in Bitcoin
- 57:24it's a mental tax because you're used to doing this
- 57:27and the mental tax and what is the value in Bitcoin
- 57:31and it's probably a harder mental tax
- 57:34because it's never existed before
- 57:36but that's what I try to
- 57:39constantly do try to constantly and and and what what would my expectation in the free market look
- 57:45like in bitcoin if it stayed decentralized and secure and and that's what i see that's what i
- 57:51observe i observe that happening around the world in the um i'm sure you saw elon musk talk about
- 57:59in the sort of ai world of the future we're not going to need money because as you say like the
- 58:04cost of everything drops to its marginal cost of production, like things might just be free and
- 58:09abundant. Do you think that's true? Do you think we will still need money?
- 58:15Very little. So a better way to look at it and imagine how complicated this is right now. And
- 58:22then somebody wants to make that complication. And typically when they do that, they're jumping,
- 58:27the shark and they say, like Elon Musk is not a Bitcoiner. Most of his money comes from government
- 58:35contracts and government. And subsidies. Subsidies and such. I'm not saying he's not a great
- 58:44entrepreneur or a great marketer or something. He clearly is, yeah. He clearly is. But if you
- 58:50actually understood what it would look like in a free market, prices would fall and he would
- 58:57have to compete broadly with everybody. And so it's illogical to me that you could say,
- 59:08we don't need money. Well, he uses money that's growing infinitely to create a crazy empire.
- 59:16Because what that means is he controls the means of production.
- 59:20and he controls the means of production
- 59:25and everybody operates on
- 59:26or he does, Google does, Amazon does
- 59:29maybe in China a couple of other
- 59:32but the means of productions are controlled by the technocrats
- 59:35and we all use that and we can get shut off of that anytime
- 59:40and the means of
- 59:43why those are centralizing is because of money
- 59:46so a free market looks
- 59:51different so to answer your question
- 59:54in the year 2140
- 59:56when Bitcoin mining
- 59:57when we've mined the last block
- 59:59would we ever go back to a time
- 1:00:04where we thought it was normal
- 1:00:07to manipulate money and that was normal
- 1:00:09nobody would ever make that choice
- 1:00:12it would be insane to make that choice
- 1:00:14So the thing we would use as money, not that we wouldn't still use an abstract concept of Bitcoin to base the free market, but you wouldn't feel like you needed it.
- 1:00:29You'd never go back to a time where, like, if we go to that point, if you just move forward, assuming Bitcoin stays decentralized and secure, and what that world looks like, can you imagine those people looking back at this timeline and saying, what were they thinking?
- 1:00:47how could they how could they trust all of those people that were extorting them
- 1:00:54and and constantly believe in that nonsense and and do more of it right we'd never go back
- 1:01:04have you ever read the mandibles this is the obligatory hat tip to odell um because in that
- 1:01:11you do kind of see in that book so this is a book about basically fiat collapse and then there's the
- 1:01:16free state of Nevada where they basically have zero tax and the whole point of the book is these
- 1:01:23people trying to go from New York to Nevada. When they get there, I think the last line of the book
- 1:01:28is and then they implemented like a 5% tax. Do you think there's no way that if we do move to this
- 1:01:34world, we don't end up very slowly moving back into a fiat type system? No, I don't think so.
- 1:01:41So, and that's chosen by us.
- 1:01:44If we move just about all that way, if we move to it's just a store of value, then guaranteed that's what we do.
- 1:01:51For sure.
- 1:01:52But I don't think, and that's why this is going to be a chaotic transition, because I think all of these observations or truths in the market are true today equally.
- 1:02:04And each person is making one more true than the other.
- 1:02:07and so what's happening is at least from my observation is as you have a protocol that's
- 1:02:15emerging and it's adding privacy and it's adding payments and you have these circular economies
- 1:02:19growing and you have this emergence um those people just like us in costa rica we're not
- 1:02:27talking about price if you go back on on crypto twitter or bitcoin twitter it would look like
- 1:02:34everybody is. But those people don't at all. They're building something entirely new that's
- 1:02:41totally different. They don't care. They're never going back. And they don't see it as just a store
- 1:02:48of value. They see it as money. And so, of course, it has to go through all of our belief systems,
- 1:02:56and only one's going to win.
- 1:03:00Last question on this sort of future Bitcoinized world
- 1:03:04is what do you think happens with credit markets?
- 1:03:08Because I don't believe you can ever get rid of credit.
- 1:03:12What would that look like in a Bitcoin world?
- 1:03:15Yeah, and a lot of your questions,
- 1:03:18actually most of these, even in the entire way,
- 1:03:22start from a credit-based system, which you're used to,
- 1:03:24and move into what does Bitcoin look like.
- 1:03:29If you want to know my simple,
- 1:03:32how I make it easy for myself,
- 1:03:34I start with first principles.
- 1:03:37Natural state of the free market is deflation.
- 1:03:40We have exponential technology growth
- 1:03:42from the free market.
- 1:03:45And if Bitcoin stayed decentralized and secure,
- 1:03:47you have an energy-backed system protocol
- 1:03:49emerging around the world.
- 1:03:52What would it look like?
- 1:03:52So I start from a different place than you start from.
- 1:03:57So what you're starting from is to buy a house, I need credit.
- 1:04:02To start a business, I need credit.
- 1:04:05I start from a different point.
- 1:04:08Natural state of the free market is deflation.
- 1:04:10I invest in companies all the time, and I always have.
- 1:04:15And when I start a company, when I've started a company, I can never get credit.
- 1:04:20I have to get equity. Somebody has to believe in my view of the world is going to produce more
- 1:04:29return for me and them by delivering value to somebody else. No one gives you credit.
- 1:04:37And so I start from that spot. And so people say, well, there's no way business could survive.
- 1:04:44and I ask why that's the way the world looks right that's the way that's that's the way it
- 1:04:51looks right now so so what happens is credit gets smaller and smaller and smaller and smaller
- 1:04:58as a percentage of the overall economy today it is the economy because we live in credit-based
- 1:05:04money that is always manipulated and if you're if you're the biggest credit provider then you
- 1:05:09provide systematic risks. If you fail, the entire system fails. So government always bails out the
- 1:05:15largest credit providers. And so if you knew that and you were a credit provider,
- 1:05:23systematic, you would want to get as big as you could as fast as you could. So you had heads,
- 1:05:30I win, tails. Now that feeds back everywhere in the market. So if you're bidding on other
- 1:05:38companies, if you're a private equity company, and you can't lose, then if other people are going
- 1:05:45to bid four times for a company, you'd bid six because you always have somebody else to. And so
- 1:05:51it's a rational game to overpay when you have a backstop of credit money, which is more and more
- 1:06:01debt forever, and you can never lose. So all of these things that people's perception of what the
- 1:06:08what money looks like and debt looks like and that the prices because those are overbid
- 1:06:14and um seem so high you think you need more debt so and then the other part of that which is
- 1:06:24important is if you had productivity gains all the time and you take took debt then the debt
- 1:06:32gets more expensive in real terms. So if you took too much debt, the debt would fail.
- 1:06:40So I do, I could totally understand what you're saying there, but in this future world,
- 1:06:45if someone like everything's abundant, everything's marginal cost production,
- 1:06:50so very cheap, abundant world, there's still going to be people striving for things that they
- 1:06:55may not have the capital to do on their own. And so like, if you're a credit worthy person with an
- 1:07:00idea that you think you're going to add more value to society there's going to be people that are
- 1:07:04willing to back you in that and offer you credit like but how how does that work in this bitcoinized
- 1:07:12world yeah so what is so probably they offer you equity they want to be owners of your business
- 1:07:18with you if they believe in you it's not just credit out of thin air i just it's not just
- 1:07:24credit out of thin air and and the credit out of thin air the credit out of thin air
- 1:07:30on a Bitcoin standard will blow up if it's a Bitcoin standard.
- 1:07:36So the credit, it'll get less and less and less.
- 1:07:41So now, if you think about this,
- 1:07:44even the conversation we're having right now,
- 1:07:46I'll bet you most people that are listening to this right now go,
- 1:07:50that's insane because they're measuring it from the other system too.
- 1:07:54And they're used to living in a credit involvement that is unlimited credit.
- 1:07:57When we say $39 trillion, remember in my book I said in the last 20 years credit had grown $185 trillion?
- 1:08:07That was to 2019.
- 1:08:10That's more than double now.
- 1:08:12Crazy.
- 1:08:14But it had to.
- 1:08:15It's mathematically because deflation is one side of the axis and the credit's the other.
- 1:08:21But what people don't realize is that's centralization.
- 1:08:26Right?
- 1:08:26That's centralization of everything. Why they see big tech, big government, and they're yelling at all of these centralized things is because it's mathematical. It's part of a system designed to extract. It has to.
- 1:08:42it's i i just wish i thought like you more jeff i'm getting there um i i always love talking to
- 1:08:50you let's close out with if there was one thing that you could say to all the listeners that
- 1:08:55helped them get a little bit closer to jeff booth's way of thinking like what is it i i i know
- 1:09:01i joke around about the kind of when i say the natural state of the free market is deflation
- 1:09:05but they should hold that thought in their head over and over and over again and if it's true
- 1:09:11then then the next step is i have agency or i don't right every time i use a piece of paper
- 1:09:21that somebody else can print unilaterally i lose my agency if i if if i move my time into this other
- 1:09:32into this other system i have agency in the world that's that's emerging um and so those are the
- 1:09:40things that I would get them to, if something's true, even if it's uncomfortable, if it's true,
- 1:09:48it's true. And this is an uncomfortable truth, meaning that we've always lived in a lie.
- 1:09:56Uncomfortable truth.
- 1:09:57And that's the hardest thing. The hardest thing in that is to examine that for what it is.
- 1:10:04And because we don't want to believe we've always lived in a lie.
- 1:10:07and that's probably the thing that's going to perpetuate this system longer yeah is that no
- 1:10:11one's willing to admit that you don't want to believe it it's just too hard on your own psyche
- 1:10:16to to believe you've all you've you've you've been deceived your entire life
- 1:10:21and into this in this system that you thought was a free market and that that you have a construct
- 1:10:26for your belief on what it is that's why i'd say you have to break that you don't have to
- 1:10:33you could stay trapped
- 1:10:34but it gets easier
- 1:10:37when you face the truth
- 1:10:38and then decide
- 1:10:40I love it Jeff
- 1:10:42when we were in Costa Rica I said we had to make a show
- 1:10:45on this you said a few things to me that kind of blew my mind
- 1:10:47I think you were the only
- 1:10:49person in Costa Rica that can snore louder than a
- 1:10:51growling monkey
- 1:10:51but it's been
- 1:10:57awesome hanging out Jeff I appreciate you
- 1:10:59so much thank you for coming on the show
- 1:11:01yeah you too buddy
- 1:11:02alright I will see you soon see you in Vegas
- 1:11:05yeah sounds good