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Who Really Decides Canada's Climate Future? · How To Protect The Ocean

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  What if Canada's climate targets are being reshaped, not just in
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  Ottawa, but in Washington, D.C.?
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  This is the How to Protect the Ocean podcast, your weekday ocean news update.
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  If you care about staying informed on the ocean every weekday, hit
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  that follow button right now so you don't miss tomorrow's story.
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  And this week, we're gonna be talking all about ocean news Monday to Friday.
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  There's no interview at the end of the week, but today until
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  Friday, we are gonna be talking about some cool ocean news topics.
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  Some good, some bad, and so we're gonna kinda continue with that.
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  Today's question is this: How can the policies of a foreign government change
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  Canada's economic priorities and then change Canada's environmental policies?
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  That's what we're gonna be talking about today because that is
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  the story unfolding right now.
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  We just got a recent release.
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  On the day that I'm recording this, it is Canada Day, so happy
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  Canada Day for those folks who are Canadian who are listening to this.
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  Prime Minister Mark Carney just gave an acknowledgement.
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  He sent out a video where he acknowledged that Canada is not on track to meet
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  its twenty thirty climate targets.
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  He's also said that emissions will likely be higher than previously
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  projected over the next few years.
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  Now, that matters because the bigger story here is not just
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  that Canada may miss the target.
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  The bigger story is why Canada's gonna miss the targets.
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  And to be honest, when we're looking at targets, the original target
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  was going to be, like, four hundred and thirty-some-odd megatons.
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  It's gonna be up to six hundred megatons, which is about twenty-eight
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  percent below two thousand five.
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  So we're still gonna get below the amount with two thousand five, but just not as
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  much as we wanted to in the first place.
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  Which, look, it's disappointing as a Canadian, as a marine biologist.
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  It's disappointing to hear that the country had to change its priorities.
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  Because Canada's facing pressure from outside of its borders, especially
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  down south from the United States.
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  US tariffs, protectionist policies and a stronger push to bring manufacturing
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  and investment back to the American economy are forcing Canada to
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  rethink its own economic strategy.
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  And when the economy shifts, climate policy often shifts with it.
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  So today, we're gonna follow the chain.
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  Foreign policy affects Canadian economic policy.
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  Canadian economic policy affects environmental policy, and
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  environmental policy affects the ocean.
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  So let's start with what happened.
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  Canada had a legal climate target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by
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  forty to forty-five percent below two thousand five levels by twenty thirty.
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  The federal government's own reporting says that is the goal.
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  But recent projections show Canada is still not there.
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  The parliamentary budget officer estimated Canada could be forty-nine
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  to two hundred and two megatons above its twenty thirty target.
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  Environment Canada's projection also show a significant gap.
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  Now, Carney is signaling that Canada's path is changing.
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  And you're probably wondering like, "Why is it changing so
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  much?" Because Canada's economy is deeply tied to the United States.
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  When the United States changes trade policy, Canada feels it pretty fast.
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  If the US puts tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and other key sectors, Canadian
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  industries become less competitive.
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  If the US rolls back clean energy incentives or changes industrial rules,
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  Canadian companies have to respond.
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  If the US prioritizes domestic manufacturing and energy security,
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  Canada has to decide whether to match that strategy, resist
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  it, or find a different path.
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  Carney's government appears to be choosing a more economic security-first approach.
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  That means protecting jobs.
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  That means supporting industries under pressure.
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  That means accelerating major energy and infrastructure projects.
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  And that can mean softening, delaying, or reworking Canadian policies
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  that industry says are too costly in the current economic climate.
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  That is the pivot.
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  It is not simply that Canada forgot about climate change.
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  It's more complicated than that.
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  It is Canada is trying to respond to a changing global economy and
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  climate policy is being adjusted as part of that response.
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  Now let's talk about why this matters.
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  The ocean does not care why emissions go up.
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  It does not care if emissions rise because of domestic politics, US tariffs, oil
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  and gas development, delayed EV rules, or weakened industrial carbon pricing.
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  The ocean only responds to the physics.
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  More greenhouse gases trap more heat.
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  More heat means warmer oceans.
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  Warmer oceans means stronger marine heatwaves, coral bleaching,
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  shifting fish populations, melting sea ice, rising seas, and more
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  stress on coastal communities.
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  That is the ocean connection.
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  This is not just a Canada story.
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  This is a climate and ocean story.
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  When governments delay emissions reductions, the consequences
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  show up in ecosystems.
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  They show up in fisheries.
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  They show up in coastal flooding.
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  They show up in Arctic change.
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  They show up in the future of marine life.
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  And this is where the story gets uncomfortable.
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  Economic policy and environmental policy are often treated like separate
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  issues, even though they're not.
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  If a country is worried about trade, jobs, inflation, tariffs, and
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  competitiveness, those concerns can change what climate policies survive.
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  A carbon price can become politically vulnerable.
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  An electric vehicle mandate can be delayed.
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  An oil and gas emissions cap can become uncertain.
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  Industrial rules can soften, and that's happened all in this last couple of years.
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  And suddenly a country that still says it supports climate action is moving
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  more slowly than the science requires.
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  Now, this is the nuance.
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  This is not a simple good guys versus bad guys type of story.
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  Governments do have to think about jobs.
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  They do have to think about affordability.
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  They do have to think about trade.
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  They do have to respond when a major trading partner changes the rules
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  without telling anybody at the beginning.
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  Canada cannot pretend the US economy does not matter.
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  But here's the problem.
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  Climate change does not pause while countries renegotiate trade relationships.
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  The ocean does not wait for a better political moment.
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  And emissions released today will keep affecting the planet for decades.
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  So the real question is not whether Canada should care about the economy.
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  Of course, it should.
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  The real question is whether Canada can protect its economy without
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  weakening the policies needed to protect climate and the ocean.
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  That is the tension, and that's what you should be looking out for.
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  First, watch for updated emissions modeling.
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  If the government is changing climate policy, Canadians need
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  to know the emissions impact.
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  How many more megatons are expected?
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  Which policies are being weakened?
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  What replaces them?
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  Second, watch the industrial carbon pricing system.
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  This may sound boring, but it's one of the most important
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  climate tools in Canada.
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  It affects heavy industry, oil and gas, and electricity.
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  If that system weakens too much, the twenty-thirty target
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  gets even harder to reach.
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  Third, watch oil and gas policy.
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  If Canada expands energy exports while also promoting net zero by twenty-fifty,
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  the government will need to explain how those two things fit together.
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  That means methane rules, carbon capture, electrification, emissions
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  caps, and actual accountability.
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  And fourth, watch how often climate policy gets framed as an economic threat
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  instead of an economic opportunity.
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  We see this all the time because clean energy, clean transportation, building
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  retrofits, grid expansion, and industrial carbonization are also economic policies.
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  They create jobs too.
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  They attract investment.
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  They build resilience.
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  So Canada has a choice.
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  It can respond to foreign economic pressure by slowing climate action, or
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  it can respond by building the kind of economy that is less vulnerable
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  to fossil fuel volatility, trade shocks, and climate damage.
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  The second path is harder, but is also the one that gives
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  the ocean a fighting chance.
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  Climate policy does not exist in a bubble.
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  It is shaped by trade, politics, jobs, and power.
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  But no matter where the pressure comes from, the ocean still pays
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  the bill when the emissions go up.
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  That's it for today's episode.
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  If you have any questions or comments or you wanna add something to this
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  episode, I would love to hear from you.
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  That's speakupforblue.com/patreon to support the work that I do for you
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  so you can stay updated on the ocean.
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  And I wanna thank you so much for joining me on today's episode of
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  the How to Protect the Ocean podcast.
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  I'm your host, Andrew Lewin.
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  Have a great day.
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  We'll talk to you next time, and happy conservation.