Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Sick | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/8/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Sick | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chaps, the black coffee on.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: The felt man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something in somebody for show? Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on and me for you.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: But it all get the crown.
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now what's up, everybody?
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you.
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: Toadstool Sports Monday, June eighth. I feel like crap. I'm
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: definitely sick. I'm gonna try to do this show fast.
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: I have no place today. It's a Monday.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: It's a smaller board.
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: Who went to and oh yesterday they go one, twelve,
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: fifty four and.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: Six, last sixty five days. I can't even talk.
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia one. I think if you played them first five,
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: they also won. Nola was not very good, but their
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: offense exploded, so that was good, I guess. And then
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: the A's won either first five or full game. They
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: both won, so whatever Gage jump pitch pretty well again,
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: I don't think I have anything else on that whatever,
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: All right, dirty sock, what's up?
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Hold on, I don't know what's going on here?
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, let's get into this baseball. There's a smaller board today.
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: Seattle Baltimore first game. Baltimore is returning home from the road.
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: They went to Boston and Toronto. You know, I talk
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: about teams returning home from road trips. They tend to
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: be in a distracted spot. They have to get back
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: to home life. It could be a problem. Maybe they'll
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: get up for it because it is against a decent
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: Seattle team here. Seattle might show up as well because
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: they've been losing.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: They just lost the series to Detroit, which is.
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: Somewhat embarrassing, so they're possibly in a bounce back spot
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: coming off of that. Flying in from Detroit. Seattle used
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: a ton of relief pitchers yesterday they used whatever that is, five,
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: Baltimore used four. Seattle is the better bullpen. Both bullpen's
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: not really in good shape right now. Rest wise Seattle
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: number fifteen arranged by Whip Baltimore nineteen. Seattle has a
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: significantly better bullpenny ra though, so I think they're definitely
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen, even though they're a little bit less rested.
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: Baltimore eighth in offense, Seattle is eleventh. Not a huge disparity.
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: There might be a little bit of a disparity in
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: this pitching matchup. Emerson Hancock for Seattle. I believe is
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: the better pitcher. Well, I mean, the numbers will tell
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: you that anyway, but he's up against Bassett, and Bassett
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: is better at home. Hancock, though two point eighty ra
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: point nine to five whip home road splits don't even
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: really matter, insignificant.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: He's pitched really well.
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: Like his last four outings, he's allowed two or fewer
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: on runs, and all of them. Had one bad start
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: since the beginning of May, which was against the White Sox,
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: and he still went fairly deep into that one. He's
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, decent strikeout
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: rate as well. He's a good pitcher starting to come
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: into his own I guess his career maybe taking off
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: a little bit late whatever.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Against Baltimore.
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: He's got pretty good numbers here, but it's a small
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: sample size. Twelve at bats, six hitters of face and
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: five strikeouts, two walks, one sixty seven batting average seven
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: O two ops. Ops is a little bit higher than
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: you'd think there, but it's a small sample. Chris pass that,
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: like I said, pitching for Baltimore, he doesn't have good numbers.
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: Five point two seventy RA, one point six y three
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: whip is really bad three point zero nine Homie Ray though,
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: so like I said, he is significantly better at home.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: He has some sort of back injury right now, but
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: he is pitching on schedule. It looks like except I
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: did look at the board and Baltimore is actually undecided
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: right now, so I actually have I don't know for
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: sure if Bassett is actually gonna pitch. He's day to
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: day with some sort of back issue, so I don't know.
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: So they might wind up calling somebody up or go
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: with a bullpen game. So we really don't know what
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: they're gonna do here. Although if it is Bassett didn't
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: pitch well his last time against the Red Sox, He's
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: been more bad than good. You know, his hit rate
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: is way too high, his walk rate's a little bit high,
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: low strikeout rate as well. Numbers against Seattle if he
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: does indeed pitch, are okay. In seventy nine at bats
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: to forty one average, allowed seven to twenty nine ops
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: twenty five to four strike out walk ratio. But it
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: might not be Bassett pitching here. Probably the lean is
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: gonna be Seattle here. I mean Baltimore is returning on
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: from the road. Whatever Baltimore is gonna do here, Seattle
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: probably still as a pitching advantage here. They're a reasonable
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: ish price here at minus one thirty something. They're favorite
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: on the road for a reason, though that's probably that
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: would be my opinion.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: The total is pretty high at nine, which seems kind
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: of high for a handcock game. I don't know, but
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: it's difficult to gauge that, especially if Baltimore is going
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: bullpen game here, they're probably gonna give up some runs.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: So Gerald, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna I don't have any plays today, so we're
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: not gonna keep rolling and I'm six, so I gotta
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: get done with this. I'm gonna tell you what my
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: strongest opinions are. One of them is this game Boston
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay. I was considering putting this one on the card.
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is returning home, although they're only returning home
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: from Miami, so that doesn't really matter that much. Tampa
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: Bay has been playing some pretty bad baseball recently. Though
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: they've won, they've lost five of their last six games.
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: Yet they're somehow still tied in first place with the Yankees,
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: and the Red Sox are ten and a half games
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: behind them. So you know, the public is gonna look
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: at this, and the public is gonna play Tampa Bay
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: here they have the better record, Like I think they're
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: gonna get the public action here. People don't really know
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: who these starters are at this point. One concern might
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: be the Red Sox are coming up a big series
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: against the Yankees. They had to rain out in there.
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: They split the series. Of course, the Red Sox did
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: not beat Schlittler yesterday. They won the other game, so
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: it could be I guess a little bit of a hangover.
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: But I doubt that the Red Sox are gonna overlook
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay. They are having to travel though, so Tampa
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: Bay is only traveling within Florida, Boston coming down from
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: New York. Maybe it'll be good for them to get
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: out of New York after that loss. Though, Red Sox
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: used three relief pitchers yesterday Tampa used three. The Red
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: Sox have the better bullpen. They gave up some runs yesterday.
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: Like I said, their sub three ERA only lasted one day,
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: but they're still ranked third in bullpen. One of the
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: best bullpen the Rays Tampa Bay eighteenth. Their eray is
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: like a run and a half higher basically than the
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: Red Sox. Tampa Bay has had the better offense, but
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: they've kind of fallen off a little bit fourteenth, Red
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: Sox twenty fifth, But I think the Red Sox have
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: the pitching edge throughout this entire game.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Connolly Early is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty good. Three point two six ERA, one
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: point one to eight WHIP. He's been better on the
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: road to two point six to seven. Roady ra wasn't
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: great in his last start against Baltimore four runs and
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: five and a third innings.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: Still had six strikeouts in one walk.
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: Though, so it wasn't really that bad, Like his command
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: was still there, and he's generally been good pretty much
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: the whole season. Strike Out rate is decent, walk rate
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: is a little bit too high, hit rate is good,
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: and he's allowed a few too many home runs, but
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: he's generally been pretty good going up against Tampa Bay.
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: Early was gonna pitch yesterday if there was a rain out,
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: but now he might get He gets a bit of
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: an easier task pitching against Tampa. They have twenty seven
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: at bats against him. They have no extra base hits,
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: seven strikeouts, three walks, three or two twenty two average exeries.
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: That's a lot better than three twenty two two twenty
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: two average five to twenty two o ps. So Early
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: has done well against Tampa, although they have seen him now,
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: but he's got good numbers against them. Red Sox or
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: excuse me, Tampa is going with a bullpen game. It
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: looks like here Ian Seymour's pitching, he has not been
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: good this year five point two three R, one point
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: three to five whip. He's been better at home though,
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: three point one to two home he ray, But I
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: don't think he's gonna go deep into this game. The
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: deepest he's gone like basically all season is two winnings.
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: So he looks like he's gonna be basically an opener
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: here and then you're gonna get Tampa's bullpen. And I
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: looked five games ago Tampa did basically go with the
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: bullpen game, so I think that is what they're doing here.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: So their bullpen's not that good. Scene more is not
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: that good.
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: Red Sox haven't really done damage against them though, tenant bats,
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: three strikeouts, no walks, two hundred average, seven hundred ops.
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: Uh nor be as a home or sorry, that's Miami.
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: What am I looking at here?
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: Dude? I'm I apologize. I gotta keep switching here.
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: Red Sox are zero for nine off in my mistake
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: with three strikeouts. Let me go back and make sure
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: that I got those numbers right here, like if I
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: want to make sure that.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: I switched.
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: To the right team here, because uh, ESPN doesn't automatically switch. Yeah,
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: I got Early's numbers right. Hopefully I got Handcock and
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: bass It right. Let me just make sure that I did.
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: I think I probably did. Yeah, if I said Hancock
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: one sixty seven average, seven oh two ops against Baltimore
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: small sample and then bass It, I think I got
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: this right.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: But let me just verify that I don't know. Did
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: I switch back?
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: I think I did Basst two forty one average, seven
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: to twenty nine, Yes against Seattle whatever, but yes, even
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: though the Red Sox have not really hit Seymour before.
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: I like the Red Sox in this game. That's the
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: way I would play it, Red Sox money line. They're
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: favored for a reason, Like, you know, the public's gonna
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: look at this, like, why would the Red Sox be
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: favored on the road when they're ten and a half
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: games behind Tampa Bay. Well, the odds makers are telling
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: you there's not that much of a gap between these
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: two teams. And in fact, the Red Sox have enough
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: of an advantage here, including with the starting pitching matchup here,
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: that they're a favorite on the road. So the odds
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: makers are definitely signaling something to you. They're telling you
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox are supposed to win this game. They're
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: around minus one twenty or so.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: As this page keeps refreshing and shifting, where the hell
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: is that game?
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: There it is?
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: The money looks like it's on Tampa right now. Sixty
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: two percent take us sixty five percent of the cash.
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: I don't think I buy that. It would be Red
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: Sox money line for me in that game.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: Full game. So you get the advantage of the bullpen
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: It's a push, yeah, well it's an intentional push.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Mister Pinsley what's up all right? Yankees? Cleveland?
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: Fox Sports one. This is an interesting pitching matchup here.
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is returning home from a road trip, and they
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: just went to New York and beat the Yankees two
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: out of three, So the Yankees probably gonna remember that
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: and be a little bit more motivated here. It's a
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: little bit of a road revenge spot for the Yankees here,
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: if you want to call it that.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Cleveland also returning home from a road trip.
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: Like I said, they went to New York and then Texas,
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: so not a great spot for Cleveland again you return
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: home home, distractions come into play.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: However, They're probably.
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: Not gonna overlook the Yankees though, I mean if they
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: were playing some bad team, I think the distraction would
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: be more substantial.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Cleveland only use one relief pitcher yesterday. The Yankees used four.
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: So Cleveland probably has a bullpen advantage here. Yankees have
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: a somewhat better bullpen a number eleven Cleveland twelfth, but
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: even with the rest that might give them a little
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: bit of a bullpen advantage. Yankees have the way better offense.
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: Number two Cleveland is number twenty six, arranged by ops.
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: Will Warren was going to start yesterday for the Yankees,
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: and they swapped him with Schlitzler, which makes sense. You know,
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: people are gonna complain about Aaron Boone. It made sense
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: to have Schlitzler, your better pitcher, go against the Red Sox.
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: Or Schlitler has better numbers against the Red Sox than
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: Will Warren does by a lot, and that, you know,
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: was like it was a rivalry series, so that made
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: more sense. You push Warren back to this Cleveland game,
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: and he's got good numbers against Cleveland, so that made
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: more sense for the Yankees to do that. Warren has
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: been good this season though, three point two two ERA,
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: one point two whip. He's been better on the road
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: to two point twenty five road ERA, which is the
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: opposite of last year. Last year he was worse on
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: the road. His walks have been a little bit of
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: a concern recently, but the Yankees have won most of
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: his start this season. He's pitched pretty well all season,
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: really pretty low hit rate, pretty low walk rate, two
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: and at two in a high strikeout rate as well. Yeah,
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: he's been good overall and still looks like he's in
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: pretty good for him right now against Cleveland. Like I said,
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: He's been good only thirteen at bats though small sample,
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: but one fifty four average, four to twenty one ops allowed,
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: two strikeouts, two walks, no extra base hits, so Warren
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: does match up pretty well here. He's gonna be pitching
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: against Gavin Williams, who is one of Cleveland's best starters.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: Three point two ERA one point oh eit whip. Williams
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: having a good season here. He's been really good at
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: home two point twenty nine home e RA. Struggled a
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: little bit in his last game, which was against the Yankees,
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: so maybe not the greatest matchup for them, although when
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: you look at the matchup numbers here, he actually does
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: okay against them. He gave him three runs and five
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: and a third innings in that game, still picked up
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: a win, and he had six strikeouts in one walk,
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: so he wasn't exactly bad in that outing. Cleveland has
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: won his last four outings. He's got a pretty high
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate on the season. He's got one of the
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: highest just pure strikeout numbers on the season.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: That's because he's also thrown.
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: At a lot of innings, but he's got a really
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: low hit rate. Strikeout rate is well over one per inning,
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: and his walk rate is decent as well.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Williams has been good man like.
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: The walks have been an issue for him in the past,
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: but seems like recently they're a bit less of an issue,
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: Like since the beginning of May, his walk rate has
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: been fairly low. Numbers against the Yankees, including that last start,
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: are pretty good. In forty two at bats, fourteen strikeouts,
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: six walks, two thirty eight.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Average ops is a little bit high though.
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: Seven sixty two, so it's a little bit on the
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: side where the Yankees started having a little bit of
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: an advantage. But I don't know, this looks like it's
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: going to be kind of a pitching matchup to me,
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: Cleveland has a.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Lot of they have a lot of low.
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: Scoring games at home, and the Yankees don't score as
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: well on the road. So some sort of under here
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: seems to kind of make sense to me. Probably A well, yeah,
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: I mean you could go full game under maybe on
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: this eighty two tickets, ninety percent of the cash on
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: the under. I mean, the Yankees do have kind of
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: an unrested bullpend though full game totals eight first half
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: is probably like four four and a half maybe for
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: the first five. Yeah, I think first five under probably
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: makes the most sense in this one. I think maybe
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: that's where the best advantage is to do that. First
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: five under makes sense. Cleveland has some money coming in here,
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: sixty two tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: Cleveland minus won twenty somethings the price on them. I
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: don't know if I agree with that. Warren actually has
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: the better matchup numbers here. I think Warren may be
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: a little bit more under the radar. You could argue
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: the Yankees could be in a bit of a letdown
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: off of the Red Sox series though, but like I said,
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: Cleveland's kind of in a bad spot returning home from
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: the road. Yankees might show up with a little bit
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: more intensity because they have the revenge factor coming in here.
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: I think I would slightly lean Yankees first five. Probably
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: not in the bullpens because their bullpen is unrested, but
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: I think under first five is probably the best approach
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: in that game. Yankees first five maybe a consideration there.
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: I like the Red Sox better than these other games
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: that I talked about so far, though, Philadelphia at Toronto.
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: Toronto just won a series against Baltimore. They're staying at
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: home Toronto. I mean, I don't really think they're gonna
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: overlook Philly because Philly's been playing pretty well recently too.
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: Philly's been hot. Five out of the last six games
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: have been wins for them. They won for us on
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: the show yesterday. They're now starting a road trip. Usually
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: when you start a road trip, you are focused. Philadelphia
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: has a huge starting pitching advantage in this game, but
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: the problem is you have to pay for it if
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: you want Philadelphia here. Philadelphia's four relief pitchers yesterday. Toronto
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: also did. Toronto's Bowl is probably slightly worse. They ranked
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: tenth Philadelphia's thirteenth, but Philadelphia has a better bullpen era.
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: I think Philadelphia's bullpen's a little bit better, but I'm
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: kind of just going with intuition on that. Neither hit,
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: neither team's offense has been that good. Toronto twentieth Philadelphia
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: twenty eighth really battle though. Philadelphia scored enough runs for
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: US yesterday, But Chris RHUs Sanchez is pitching for Philly,
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: so they might not need to score that many runs
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: a year to win this game. Sanchez has been really
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: good one point four to sixty IRA one point zero
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: nine whip. He's been more beatable on the road, if
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: you want to call it that. Two point seven to
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: three Roady Ray. Obviously still good. Sanchez gave up one
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: run in his last doubting what's wrong with him?
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: Man?
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: After he went the entire month of May without allowing
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: a run. He gave up a run to San Diego.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: What the hell? Man?
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: Well, whatever, Sanchez is pitching really really well right now.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: Obviously he's still in really good form. I think he
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: has the second highest strikeout rate in baseball.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: I want to say, behind miss Zierowski.
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: I'll have to check that, but he's got over one
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: hundred strikeouts already in much fewer innings than that. Low
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: hit rate, low walk rate. All of his numbers are
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: really good. He's in Cy Young contention here, Cy Young.
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: There are a lot of candidates in the NL here man,
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: and he is one of them. Against Toronto, He's got
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: pretty good numbers against them. In forty nine at bats,
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: two point four average allowed, five sixty three ohps. The
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: only bad number here is the walks six strikeouts, five walks.
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I expect Sante just to pitch well here.
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: I'm not going out on a Limb saying that he's
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: going up against the much maligned Patrick KORbin.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Who you know me.
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's a very good pitcher. Is Erra
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: is pretty good this year three point nine to eight.
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: His whip is not very good one point three to eight,
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: indicating that is zr Race should probably be saying the
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: mid to high fours would make more sense with a
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: whip like that. Corbin not good at home four point
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: seventy four home he ra. He only had one strikeout
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: in his last outing against Atlanta, gave up four runs there.
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: He seems to be kind of trending back in the
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: wrong direction. If that start is going to be a
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: new trend here, I don't know. I just don't really
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: trust Corban. He's got a low strikeout rate. His hit
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: rate is pretty.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: Bad, more than one per inning. His walk rate is okay.
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: Against Philadelphia, Let's see, Philadelphia is gonna have seen a
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: lot of them because Corbin was on Washington, so Philadelphia
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: has definitely seen a bunch of him. They have one
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: hundred and eighty five at bats against him, three point
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: thirty five average allowed nine eighty five ops forty to
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: twenty eight strikeout.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: Rock strikeout walk ratio. These numbers are horrible.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia has a bunch of batters that just crushed this guy.
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: Bomb Harper, re reyal Muto stot all of those guys
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: destroy him. Uh So, yeah, this looks like a pretty
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: bad matchup for Korb and I don't think you could
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: really lay the money line here though, even though obviously
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: I expect Philadelphia to win this game, I think this
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: is a complete mismatch. But Philadelphia's minus one ninety almost
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: here minus one eighties. The money is actually backing Toronto,
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: which I would not do. Seventy five percent of tickets,
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: eighty three percent of the cash on Toronto.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: There's just no way I would do that. I think
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Philly is the right side.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: I think they're gonna win this game, but the money's
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: coming into the over fifty nine percent of tickets, ninety
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: one percent of the cash on the over.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: The total is low seven and a half.
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: But I think the way to do this is probably
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: to go Philadelphia over their team total, although I don't
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: know if you do that then you lose the the
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: Christopher Sanchez part of the handicap though, so I don't know.
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: I mean, I wouldn't disagree though, that Philadelphia should score
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: runs off of Toronto's pitching situation here, and I think
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: laying them laying the money line I think is kind
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: of out of the question here. I mean, the money
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: is basically kind of telling you that the professional betters
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: are kind of saying that they think Philadelphia is a
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: little bit overvalued here, like you're paying too much of
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: a price for Sanchez because everybody knows how good he
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: is now. But I mean, I don't know, man, I mean,
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: I think I would still not disagree with laying a
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: run line with Philadelphia here.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I know they're on the road.
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: At least you get all nine innings from them if
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: you do lay the.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Run line with them. I don't know. I think it
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: kind of makes more sense to do it that way.
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: And if you want to avoid Philly's bullpen because they're
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: not really that good, you could go first five, lay
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: a run line in the first five, maybe even a
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: half run that that actually maybe that's actually the best
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: way to approach this game, Philadelphia first five run line.
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: That makes some sense to me, and then just go
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: with the starting pitching edge. But I don't know, man,
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: the price on that is probably gonna be big, so
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: I don't know. You're probably gonna have to lay some
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: juice for that, for something like that, So I'm skipping
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: the game. But yeah, I think Philly's gonna win the game,
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: all right. Houston at Anaheim, this might be the I
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: think this is the one that I was closest to playing.
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: It was either this one or the Red Sox.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: I like Houston.
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: In this game, Anaheim is returning home from the road,
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: although it's only going up the street from LA so
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: that's not really that big of a deal.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: They were not on the road for very long.
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: But I think they're in a letdown spot because Anaheim
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: broke out the bats yesterday and they just torched the
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: Dodgers yesterday. I had that game completely wrong. It's a
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: good thing it was not on my card. A few
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: of those unders that I liked yesterday did not happen,
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: so good thing I did not put them on my card.
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: But Anaheim, that was a big win for them. They
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: beat the Dodgers thirteen to five yesterday. Finally they beat
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: them after losing five games to them this season. Could
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: be a let down for Anaheim after that. Although I
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: know this is a divisional game. I know, Anaheim's in
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: last place in the division, so they still might show
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: up to play.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: It's Houston here. Houston used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: Anaheim used four, and Anaheim we're we're at a point
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: where I think Anaheim is actually the lesser bullpen. Houston's
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: bullpen has actually been pitching better recently. They got their
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: ERA below five now. They're ranked twenty fourth now, so
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: they're not dead last anymore, and they're not really that close.
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: Anaheim has a worst bullpen ERA by point three or
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: no excuse, you know they don't. Houston has a worst ERA,
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: my mistake, but it's really close. Anaheim has the worst
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: bullpen whip though, and they're twenty eighth in bullpen whip.
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: So I think Houston actually might have the better bullpen here,
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: and I think they have the better starter. Spencer Arraghetty
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: is pitching for Houston. He's been like basically their only
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: good starter, although I do have some question marks with
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: him here, but he's got good numbers, one point nine
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: to four ERA, one point one eight whip, He's Italian
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: and he's got awesome hair, so I like that he's
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: been good on the road one point sixty nine row.
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: Although Anaheim is kind of a hitter friendly ballpark, Araghetty
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: did struggle in his last game against Pittsburgh. You give
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: up four runs to them in four innings. Pittsburgh is
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: a good offense, though, did have three strikeouts one walk
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: in that one, and Arraghetty had allowed two or fewer
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: earned runs in every start prior to that. This season,
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: his numbers are pretty good. His hit rate is really low.
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: His real issues walks, though his walk number is really high.
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: So that does Warring Meal. Those walk number went down
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: in his last two games, but that walk number is
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: still way too high. He's got a more consistently pitch
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: without walking a bunch of guys, you know, for me
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: to change my mind about that.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate is lower than you would think.
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: Like usually when you have a guy who has numbers
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: that look this good and they walk a ton of
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: guys like Dylan Cease or something like that, usually they
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: overcome that by having a ridiculous strikeout rate. But Raghetty
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: doesn't have that right now, so I don't know. He's
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: got some issues. His strikeout walk ratios not that good
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: against Anaheim, though he's been pretty good twenty one at bats.
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: It's not a big sample. Nido is like the only
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: guy that does any damage against him. Nido has two
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: on them runs off him. Arragetty has ten strikeouts, three
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: walks allowed to them, one forty three average, six seventy
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: nine ops. Then on the other side, Grayson Rodriguez is
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: pitching four Anaheim. He's trying to make a comeback here.
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: He missed all of last season with an injury. He
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: was on Baltimore prior to that. His numbers were decent
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: with Baltimore the last season that he pitched with Baltimore,
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: so I thought he was turning into a pretty good pitcher.
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: But whatever injury happened to him really kind of derailed him,
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: and he has not really gotten back on track. He's
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: got a nine point five ERA here this season so
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: far in four starts, I think one point eight to
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: nine whip. He's been really bad at home twelve point
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: four to six HOMEYRA. That's not good. He got lit
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: up at home his last outing against Colorado. That's not
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: a good sign. That call offense is not good. Really,
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: they're not good anywhere this year, but by that much,
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: I mean they're not really that good anywhere this year,
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: I should say.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: But usually they're really bad on the road.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: Uh, Rodriguez only had one good start and it was
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: on the road against Detroit, and we know Detroit hasn't
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: been hitting well.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: So I don't know.
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: G rod doesn't seem like he's pitching too well here.
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: He's got a really high walk rate, a high hit
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: rate as well. His strikeout rate is okay, So I
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: do think he is gonna get a little bit better,
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: Like if you'll get his numbers twenty twenty three to
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty four, I think he won't beat this bad
• 27:36
  Speaker 5: all season, but I don't trust him right now. I
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: don't trust him at home. His numbers against Houston, let
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: me say, not great. They're not horrible though, Like he's
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: on like the slightly better side of these numbers. Twenty
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: six at bats to sixty nine average allowed seven to
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: forty five ohps, three strikeouts, two walks, so Houston doesn't
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: destroy him, but he is not pitching well right now.
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: So yeah, like I said, I like Houston. Here, Houston
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: is traveling though they are coming in from home, so
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: they are having to travel out to the West coast,
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: so I don't necessarily love that even though first game
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: of a road trip usually a team is going to
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: be focused, but Central time zone team going to play
• 28:20
  Speaker 5: a late night game out west could be a little
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: bit bad biological biologically for the biological clock.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: So I will stay off this game.
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: But I like Houston, so I think if I was
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: gonna play any games today, it would be this one
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: or the Red Sox. Maybe I like the Red Sox
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: a little bit better than this one, so I would
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: lean Red Sox money line and Houston money line. Those
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: would be my two opinions here. The money is not
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: agreeing with this either, though. Money's coming in on Anaheim
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: seventy four percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash.
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: I don't know how you could back Grayson Rodriguez the
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: way he's pitching right now with your actual money, though.
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, like I said, I think eventually he will
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: be back in some sort of form, though, but it
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: hasn't happened yet. It looked like he was moving in
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: the right direction and then he had a massive setback
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: in his last game. Houston is a favorite, like I said,
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: or I think I said that. They're around minus one thirty,
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: so you do have to lay a little bit of
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: a price for them. Maybe the money's coming in on
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: Anaheim because maybe that price is just not totally justified.
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: I do think that Arragetty's not quite as good as
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: his numbers look, so I will say that, And money
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: is coming on in the over in that game, obviously,
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: if you go with an over in that game, obviously
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: I would.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: Go full game on that.
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: You know, and then you get the full advantage of that,
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: because the bullpens are really the main reason why you'd
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: want to take an over in that game. The bullpens
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: are just awful. Garrett, what's up North Carolina? Yes, they won.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: They're going to.
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: The little or the what is it the College World's
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: I almost said Little League, the College World Series.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know how they do it.
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: How many teams make omahas just the final four, I
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: don't even know. I don't pay that much attention to it.
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: I think Texas is still alive. They're a pretty good team.
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: I don't know who else is still there though. All right,
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati and San Diego on ESPN Unlimited. San Diego is
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: staying at home and they've lost a lot of games recently.
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: San Diego's playing some bad baseball, so it might serve.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Them better just leave home. I don't know, this is
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: bad for them.
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati is having to travel to the West coast though
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: from the Central Central time zone. Cincinnati was just in
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis. They got swept in Saint Louis. The Cincinnati
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: team is not great, man.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a bounce back spot for them.
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: Maybe it'll be good for them to just leave where
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: they just were and you know, have like press a
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: reset button. But having to go out to the West coast,
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: like I said, for that first game, it's a little
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: bit difficult to do that when you're having a shift
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: your biological clock. So I don't really want anything to
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: do with Sati here. Cincinnati really bad bullpen. They use
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: five guys out of the bullpen yesterday too. San Diego
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: has a massive bullpen advantage here. They used three guys
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: out of the bullpen Mason Miller rested yesterday. For what
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: that's worth, San Diego has one of the best bullpens
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: in baseball, though they're number four. Cincinnati is dead last thirtieth,
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: so there's a huge bullpen advantage to San Diego here.
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: San Diego's hitting is dead last, though so Cincinnati has
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: a hitting edge. Cincinnati is sixteenth, so their middle of
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: the pack here. Andrew Abbot is pitching for Cincinnati. He
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: hasn't been that good, although if you look at his
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: career numbers, they're better than this, and he does seem
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: to be getting better over the last month or so,
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: so I think he is kind of trending back towards
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: what we usually get out of him after he started
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: the season pretty bad. Four point zero sixty RA, one
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: point four to four whip. That whip is pretty bad.
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: He's got a.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: Two point eight one Roady Ray.
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: Though he's been good on the road, which kind of
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: makes sense because Cincinnati's a home ballpark has pretty hit
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: or conducive though. Abbot has pitched with Cincinnati for years
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: now and he's been pretty good prior to this year,
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: so I think his home number probably will get better,
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: but it'll probably be good for him to just go
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: out on the road, go to a pitcher friendly park
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: and face a really weak San Diego offense. Abbot, like
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: I said, he pitched better throughout the month of May.
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: His ERA was a lot better, but his strike out
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: rate was low and his walk rate was definitely too high.
• 32:33
  Speaker 5: So he still has some issues here. His hit rate
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: has gotten lower over the last month. His hit rate
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: is below one per inning again. Now his walk rate
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: is still way too high though. On his strike cut
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: rate is I think abnormally low.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: He's not really a.
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: Strikeout pitcher, but his strike out rate is really low,
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: so his strikeout walk ratio is really bad.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: So that does concern me about Abbot, but I think
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: he I.
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: Would be more inclined to think he is going to
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: pitch well here though, because looking at his career he's
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: been a pretty decent pitcher. Again, he's on the road
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: against a bad San Diego lineup, and he's got good
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: numbers against them. Fifty three at bats two eight average,
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: a lot five eighty four ohps, fourteen to four strike
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio, So I think Abbott should pitch well here.
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: Walker Bueller's pitching for San Diego. He hasn't been great,
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: but he's been I guess better than maybe people thought.
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: Four point five three ERA, one point two eight whips.
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: Still not great though, Bueller. I don't think he's ever
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: gonna be what he once was before having I think
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: multiple Tommy John surgeries maybe, but he has been good
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: at home. So pitching with San Diego has helped him
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: because he gets to pitch in this pitcher friendly ballpark
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: three point five ERA at homes, so that has definitely
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: helped his numbers. He did actually pitch well on the
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: road last time out against Philadelphia, and that was his
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: second straight start against Philly and.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: He pitched well.
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: And he actually pitched pretty well in May as well,
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: So Bueller is actually in better form right now. Most
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: of his May starts were at home, so do it
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: what you want, but Bueller is in better form right now.
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: His strike out rate is low, hit his walk rate
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: is still too highest. Hit rate is fine though, but
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: like I said, his walk rate has gone down recently,
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: so he is in better form right now than he
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: was earlier in the season.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: He will be going up.
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: Against a Cincinnati lineup that's middle of the pack. He's
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: got good numbers against them in thirty two at bats
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: two nineteen average.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Well, actually not all good numbers.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: I'd like my eyeball just goes to the average first,
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: but seven to seventy four ohps isn't really that good.
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: A couple of home runs there from Benson and Steer,
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: eight four strike out walk rasure, but still that seems
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: a little fluky to me. I think generally he's been
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: decent against Cincinnati, he's been better at home. I think
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: a first five under makes some sense in this game.
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in on the over though, eighty one
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: the over. The total is really low though, seven and
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: a half eight, So the oddsmakers are kind of they
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: think this will be a lower scoring game. I would
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: not want Cincinnati's bullpen to factor into that in any fashion, though,
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: so I think under first five innings makes some sense
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: in that game. And then the money is back in
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: San Diego. For what that's worth, sixty two tickets on Cincinnati,
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: sixty seven of the cash on San Diego. Do with
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: that info what you want. I don't really think I
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: have a good read on the side though. San Diego
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: definitely does have a bullpen advantage though, so that is
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: one big advantage that they have in the game.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Kyle, what's up?
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out. You missed the bets. Yeah, we
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: had afternoon baseball. It's a Sunday yesterday. All all Sunday
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: baseball is afternoon because the team, except for the Sunday
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: night game because the teams have to travel. Yes, all right,
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: speaking of the Sunday night game, one of the teams
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: involved in that game is playing tonight.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: I'll washing in at San Francisco.
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: So San Francisco maybe had a little bit of a
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: disadvantage for that reason, and their disadvantage gets worse than
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: that because they played into extra innings in Chicago, so
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: it was San Francisco at the Cubs. They also beat
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: the Cubs in that game, so Sar Francisco they just
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: want a series against the Cubs. They're returning home from
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: a long road trip. They took them to Colorado, Milwaukee,
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: and then Chicago. Now they're having to readjust to the
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: Pacific time zone off of a night game, off of
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: a big win against the Cubs. Here, this is a
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: very very negative spot for San Francisco. Man again, returning
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: home could be a distraction spot.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: You had to get back to home life. Whatever.
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: They're in, the longest road trip return spot out of
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: any team today, shorter rest because they're coming up the
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: night game. Readjusting your biological clock two time zones later
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: not going to be easy. So these are huge negatives
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: for San Francisco. So I was like thinking, like, this
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: looks like a good spot to play Washington.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: I was thinking I might be doing that until I
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: looked at the pitching matchup and I'm like, I just
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: can't do it, man, I.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: Can't do it.
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: Even though this looks like a really nice spot to
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: fade San Francisco, Washington is in a much better position
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: because they're only traveling in from Arizona, so that's a
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: much easier travel spot. And Washington played in the afternoon,
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: so that's a much easier situation for Washington. They have
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: an easier travel spot and extra rest here, so Washington
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: has a huge situational advantage here. But again, the problem
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: is the advantages that they have kind of stopped there
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: because they're pitching just isn't good.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Although they didn't use that much of their relief staff yesterday.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: They used two guys out of the bullpen, but their
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: bullpen stinks.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: San Francisco used five relief.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: Pitchers though, and actually, you know, even though San Francisco
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: has good bullpen personnel, their bullpen is falling off their
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: number twenty five and Washington's number twenty three. But Washington's
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: bullpen era is like a half run worse than San Francisco.
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: So I still think San Francisco is the better bullpen,
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: but because of the lack of rest, that does kind
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: of in negate san Francisco's bullpen edge a little bit.
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: So that's kind of another indicator that maybe you could
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: be looking at Washington as an underdog here. Washington is
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: number four in offense. They are the better offense. They've
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: been around there all season. San Francisco's number eleven. But
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: I think with San Francisco back at home, their offense
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: is gonna fall back like to Earth. Like San Francisco
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: had a couple of huge offensive performances on the road.
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: They're not a good offense in my opinion, and they're
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: back at home, which is a picture friendly ballpark. I
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: don't see San Francisco keeping that up. However, they get
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: to face Miles Micholess, and this is kind of the problem, Like,
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: I don't think I could back him, dude, even though
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: this is a really nice spot, and if you were
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: going to back Mekolus in like any spot, this might
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: be the spot to do it. His numbers are just
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: so awful though, six point three to ninety array one
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: point four whip.
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: Although he is he is better on the road, so
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: you might be able to back him for that reason.
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: Four point eight two Roady Ray. He gets lit up
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: in home. He is better on the road, but he's
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: just not pitching well. He got lit up a bit
• 39:16
  Speaker 5: by Miami last time out. Hasn't been good recently, hasn't
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: been good all season really. He's got a low strike
• 39:22
  Speaker 5: gout rate, a high hit rate. His walk rate is okay,
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: and he's giving up a lot of home runs. But
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: this is a pitcher friendly ballpark, so maybe that'll help
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: him out. He did actually face San Francisco at home
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: earlier this year, where he is worse. He went four
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: shutout innings in that one, so he did pitch well
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: against San Francisco. Back in mid April at home again
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: where he is worse against San Francisco overall, though, his
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: numbers are just not that good and seventy three at
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: bats they have a three oh one average off him.
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: Seven thirty five ops is a bit low though, so
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: they haven't really hit him for power, but they have
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: a lot of contact hitting off him, strikeouts and four walks,
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: so I just can't do it.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: Man, you know, I love seeing.
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: A situation like this because the situation is so negative
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: for San Francisco.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: But then you look at the pitching matchup.
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: You have to deal with Micholas against Webb, like Web
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: is so clearly the better pitcher here. I just I
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: can't do it, man, I can't do it. Web Logan
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: Web for the Giants. I mean, he's a staple. He
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: bitched really well in his last outing, and I gave
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: you guys a winner on that one on the show.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: Luckily San Francisco scored.
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: One run and we're able to We're able to win
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: the bet that way because Webb was excellent. Web actually
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: took a perfect game into the sixth inning in that
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: one against Milwaukee.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: He's he's really.
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: Good against Milwaukee, specifically for whatever reason.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: Web.
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: Overall, his numbers are trending in the right direction. He's
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: got a four point two five ERA one point two
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: to six win.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: But we basically know who he is.
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: He started this season a little bit late due to
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: an injury, but if you look at his career numbers,
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: I mean he's one of the giant and the most
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: consistent pitchers. He's usually better at home as well, although
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: this year that has n't been the case six point
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: two to six homeira. So if you do want to
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: fade the Giants here, the home road splits actually favor
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: Miles Mikolas here, but Web, throughout his career he's been
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: better at home though, So I don't put that much
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: weight into this small sample sized split that we have here. Web,
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: Like I said, he was awesome last time out after
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: he wasn't really pitching that well. He seems like he's
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: coming back into form. That outing was really good last
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: time out against Milwaukee, seven shutout innings, one hit aloud.
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: But when a guy does that, when a guy takes
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: a perfect inning pretty deep or perfect excuse me, a
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: perfect game pretty deep into an outing like that into
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: like the sixth inning, sometimes they'll be in a letdown
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: spot after that, you know what I mean. Maybe he
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: won't because he's a pretty consistent pitcher and it wasn't
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: like he made it to the ninth inning or anything.
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: So we'll see.
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: But also, his numbers against Washington are actually not that
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: good in fifty four a bad two seventy eight to average,
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: eight oh five ops, ten to seven strike out walk ratio.
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: So a Leen Washington in this game, Man, I don't
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: know if I could do it, though I got no balls.
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: Maybe I don't know, but I think I just I
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: just can't do it. Man, with Micholas, I cannot do it.
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: The money is heavily indicating on Sarrancisco on I would
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: not agree with that. Uh, seventy four percent of tickets
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: on Washington, eighty seven percent of the cash on Sar Francisco.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: I don't underst.
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: I do not understand that I expected the money to
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: be on Washington in this game. Sar Francisco's around minus
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: one sixty or so here their.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: Favorite for a reason. Web is a lot better than Mekolas.
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: We know that, so Sar Francisco probably deserves to be
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: favored by about that. But you can get Washington and
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: a nice underdog price. Man, you got Web doesn't have
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: great matchup numbers. Web has not been good at home
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: this year. Micholas has been better on the road. Washington's
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: offense has also been better on the road. The situational
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: setup is just way better for Washington here though, and
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: then the Bullpens actually look like they're kind of a
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: wash here a wash Ington, believe it or not. Even
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: though San Francisco normally, I would say has a considerably
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: better bullpen.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: That just hasn't been the case recently.
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: And the rest or lack of rest for San Francisco
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: hurts their bullpend too, So I would look I would
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: look at Washington in this one. I would split the bet,
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: probably take part of it on the run line and
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: part of it on the money line. I think that's
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: the way I would do it, and then if they
• 43:28
  Speaker 5: come within one run, you'll push the bet. The total
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: is fairly low at eight, so there's a decent shot.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: You know, when it's a lower total, there's a better
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: shot for the underdog to kind of hang around there typically.
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: Garrett Braves of the sweep, Is that what happened?
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: I think it was.
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: Braves are off today, I believe, Yeah, they swept Pittsburgh,
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: all right, I think all right.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: The last game here is Milwaukee and the A's.
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: Now, if you look at the schedule, it looks like
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: the A's are returning home from a road trip because
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: they went to the Cubs and Houston. But that is
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: not the case because this game is in Las Vegas,
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: so this is not the A's stadium.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: So keep that in mind.
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: We are not playing in the Triple A stadium in
• 44:12
  Speaker 5: Sacramento that.
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: The A is typically playing.
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: The A's are gonna move to Las Vegas, so I
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: guess they're getting their feet wet and they're gonna, you know,
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: see how much of a crowd shows up for this.
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: They're playing in Las Vegas at Las Vegas Ballpark, which
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: I this might also be a Triple A stadium though,
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: so I would I don't know, I would have to
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: look into it more. I haven't really I decided I
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: didn't want to play this game and I just overlooked it.
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: But the total is really high in this game, so
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: the total makes it look like it's being played in Sacramento.
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: So I think this ballpark must be like probably where
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: like the Vegas what's what's that Vegas Triple A team
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: the the area fifty ones? I think they're the Dodgers
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: Triple A team or whatever. I think it's probably that team,
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: whatever it is. I'm not totally sure about that, but
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: it looks like it's probably another Triple A stadium that.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Is very hit or conducive.
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: Because I didn't even realize this game wasn't in Sacramento
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: because I was like, oh yeah, the totals eleven.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: All right, it.
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: Goes to eleven, But yeah, I think this It must
• 45:17
  Speaker 5: be that this stadium is just very similar to the
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: stadium that the A's playing.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: So keep all that in mind.
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: But this game is in Las Vegas, so it is
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: not a return home spot, so the A's are not
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: going to be back in the Bay Area for this.
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is traveling. They're coming in from Colorado. They just
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: swept Colorado, so they're coming out of elevation down to
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: Vegas to play this game. All right, Still probably won't
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: really be a home advantage for the A's here though.
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: As far as the bullpens are concerning, Milwaukee definitely has
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen. The A's used three guys out of
• 45:51
  Speaker 5: the bullpen yesterday, Milwaukee only used two. Milwaukee, like I said,
• 45:55
  Speaker 5: they have the better bullpen here. Whoops, Milwaukee number fourteen,
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: But they do have a really good bullpen. Era as
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: are number twenty one. Their ERA is more than a
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: run higher, so you got an advantage in the bullpen
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: with Milwaukee. Milwaukee's hitting has moved all the.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Way up to tenth, but.
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: Again, playing in Colorado will do that, right. Like playing
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: in Colorado, the Giants shot way up in offense. Now
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee did whatever. Milwaukee's got a decent offense though they've
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: been playing better recently just in general. And then the
• 46:30
  Speaker 5: As they have a decent offense to the thirteenth. So
• 46:33
  Speaker 5: both both of these offenses can do damage offensively. But
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: both these starting pitchers have been all right. Well, Harrison
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: has been better than alright. Kyle Harrison for the Brewers.
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: Red Sox should not have gotten rid of him. Man,
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: imagine having Harrison in that Red Sox rotation instead of
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: Brian Bao. Red Sox would have all these young guns
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: were all pitching well.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: That would be insane.
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: Harrison's awesome one point five to seventy RA one point
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: zero three whip home road splits are basically insignificant. Here
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: had twelve strikeouts in his last downing double digit strikeouts
• 47:11
  Speaker 5: at two of his last three outings.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's won all of his starts going all.
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: The way back to April twenty first, So yeah, I mean,
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: he's been pitching well.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: The team has been playing well behind him.
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, a low walk rate,
• 47:24
  Speaker 5: well low enough, and a high strikeout rate as well.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: His numbers are good across the board. We get it.
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: He'll be facing the A's here in the A's have
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: actually seen him before, and they actually have done well
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: against him because he was on the Giants, remember, so
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: the Giants in the A's are like that geographic rivalry.
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: Harrison only has eight at bats against them, though, but
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: they've done some offensive damage against him. Two strikeouts, no walks,
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: three seventy five average eight seventy five ops. I'm still
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: not about to say that Harrison's gonna pitch poorly year,
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: because why would you when he's pitched awesome all Sea
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: and he's allowed no more than two earned runs in
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: any start this season. I know the A's have hit
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: him a little bit in a small sample, but he's
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: better this year than he ever has been. He's still
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: young at twenty four, so I think the A's have
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: not seen this version of Kyle Harrison. By the way,
• 48:16
  Speaker 5: unfortunately we lost that under in his last game. He
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: he was not the reason why. But also, yes, this
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: is a hitter friendly ballpark, so Harrison does have to
• 48:27
  Speaker 5: pitch there. Harrison does have kind of an extreme fly
• 48:31
  Speaker 5: ball rate, so that is somebody to keep in mind.
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: So this might not be the best stadium for him
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: to pitch him, But he's so good that I don't
• 48:38
  Speaker 5: think that really matters that much. So my obviously, my
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: assumption is that Harrison should pitch well here. I wouldn't
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: want to fade him. Jeffrey Springs is pitching for the A's.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: He's been decent four point three seventy RA, one point
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: two to four whip. He's not really as good at home,
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: which makes sense because the A's ballpark is very hitter
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: could do. And again they're playing at Vegas this time,
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: so it's not the same ballpark, but it appears to
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: be similar just based on the total of the oddsmakers
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: have put out there.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Uh Springs has a four point four to six homey ARRA.
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: I think he might struggle in this ballpark because it's
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: similar to that A's ballpark. Springs was not good last
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: time out against the Cubs. He's struggling a little bit
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: over his last few outings. He hasn't really been that good,
• 49:28
  Speaker 5: so he's not a good form right now. He's got
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: a low hit rate, his walk rate is a little
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: bit high, in his strikeout rates a little bit low,
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: and he's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: As well.
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: So that's not good for a ballpark like this. Against Milwaukee,
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: where are we They have decent offensive numbers against him,
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: It's kind of a small sample twenty two at bats,
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: although basically all their hitters have faced him before. Six strikeouts,
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: four walks, two seventy three average allowed, eight thirty nine ops.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: So he has not done that well against them.
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: It seems to set up better for Milwaukee here, but
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: you're having to pay a price for Milwaukee.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: Oh look at this the.
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: Numbers, dude, wager talk your odds logic screen whatever. Yeah,
• 50:11
  Speaker 5: like all the numbers are coming in.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: I hope, I hope that continues to be the case.
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: We get all these numbers earlier. The money's coming in
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: on the A's here though, eighty eight percent of tickets,
• 50:22
  Speaker 5: ninety four percent of the cash on them. If you
• 50:24
  Speaker 5: want Milwaukee, you're laying about minus one forty something on
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: the money line. I think I would have to lean
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: that way, though I think Harrison has a better I mean,
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: Harris is just better than Springs. Milwaukee's bullpen is also better,
• 50:36
  Speaker 5: So I think I could only lean to Milwaukee there.
• 50:39
  Speaker 5: Even though it's not a true it's not it's not
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: actually a return home spot for the A's, but they
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: also don't really have a home advantage here. The total
• 50:48
  Speaker 5: the money's coming in on the over pretty strongly here
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: over eleven, I mean, eleven is such a high total
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: though for this pitching matchup, Like these are pictures that
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: get decent respect, especially Harrison, from the marketplace, so that
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: total is crazy high. I mean, that does make it
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: seem like this is a very hit or friendly ballpark
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: they're playing in here, so.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Keep that in mind.
• 51:10
  Speaker 5: But I don't I don't think I would want to
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: play that thing over. You're never really gonna see, Like,
• 51:15
  Speaker 5: am I ever gonna play an over in a Harrison game,
• 51:18
  Speaker 5: especially when it's totals eleven?
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. Although the one thing.
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: That I did say is that both pitchers do have
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: a tendency to give up fly balls, so maybe that
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: will hurt.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: Them in this game.
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: But there's no reason to think that Harrison is gonna
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: all of a sudden like implode based on how well
• 51:33
  Speaker 5: he's pitched all seasons. So it might happen, but I
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: would not have my money on it, and it might
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: happen in some start where you don't really expect it
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: so all right, uh, let's go to the w n
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: B A. I'm gonna close all that stuff WNBA. We
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: have three games here. Actually, I'm gonna take a quick break.
• 51:53
  Speaker 5: I'll be right back and then I'll do the WNBA
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: and the NBA. Unfortunately, but I don't have a play
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: in any of these things, all right, back, all right,
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: And yes, I don't know if I made that totally clear,
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: but the as if people don't know the A's are
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: moving to Las Vegas, I think in twenty twenty eight,
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: I think I don't know. I don't love that the
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: A's are this homeless team in Sacramento for this long
• 53:29
  Speaker 5: and they're not called the Sacramento as.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: It's very weird, all right.
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: WNBA Cup action continues. Two of these three games are
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: huge mismatches, including.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: This first one in New York at Connecticut.
• 53:45
  Speaker 5: New York is one of the better teams in the league.
• 53:47
  Speaker 5: Connecticut is I think the worst team in the whole league.
• 53:50
  Speaker 5: Connecticut is also returning home from a road trip, so
• 53:52
  Speaker 5: I don't exactly love that. Obviously, I don't like it.
• 53:57
  Speaker 5: They went to Atlanta and Chicago. Maybe not the road trip,
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: but they were still away for almost a week now.
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: They're returning back, but they haven't won a Cup game
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: yet and they're playing against New York, so I don't
• 54:07
  Speaker 5: think they're really going to be distracted.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: I think they'll still show up for it.
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: New York also killed them in the season opener at
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: New York, so New York might take Connecticut a little
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: bit lightly after they stomped them by thirty one points.
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: And if you look at this game, it was a
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: little bit misleading. Connecticut had a horrific shooting game, thirty
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: nine percent from the field, and they actually had sixteen more.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: Field goal attempts to New York did.
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: In the game, Connecticut was only eighteen percent from three.
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: Liberty had six more threes thirty two percent from three,
• 54:38
  Speaker 5: but fifty two percent from the field.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: The Liberty also went to the line constantly.
• 54:42
  Speaker 5: They had more than twice as many free throw attempts,
• 54:45
  Speaker 5: and they hit nineteen more free throws.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: So this is an outlier.
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: Like, you know, you got to expect that the free
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: throw disparity is not going to be that extreme this time.
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: Connecticut probably, even though they're awful, they're probably not gonna
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: shoot this poorly. The Liberty will probably not shoot this well,
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: so there are definitely some outliers here. The Liberty were
• 55:05
  Speaker 5: the better team, but not by anywhere near as much
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: as it looked, and they only won the rebound battle
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: by five. And the Liberty, by the way, we're a
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: nine and a half point favorite in that game. I
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: don't know if maybe there were some injured players or
• 55:17
  Speaker 5: something there, because the Liberty are favored by more than
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: that on the road here they're twelve and a half thirteen.
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: The money looks like it's on the Liberty seventy eight
• 55:25
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash on them.
• 55:28
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't do that, though, I would lean towards taking
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: the points of Connecticut. I know it's not far from
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: New York, so they'll probably still have some fans show up.
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: I guess, however, many fans show up in the WNBA.
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: But the Liberty are also coming off of a nice
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: win over Indiana and they have Atlanta next, so that
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: might be a look ahead because Atlanta has been one
• 55:48
  Speaker 5: of the better teams in the league too. So this
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: is kind of a sandwich spot the Liberty are in,
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: and it's a bit of a revenge spot for Connecticut
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: from a very misleading final. So even though Connecticut is
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: returning over from the road, Liberty are also undefeated and
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: Cup play so far. But maybe the Liberty are trying
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: to win the Cup and maybe they will still remain
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: focused for that reason. But how can you be that
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: focused on a team that you absolutely destroyed the.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: One time that you played them. Yeah, I don't know.
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: The line seems high to me too, So I would
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: lean towards taking the points of Connecticut in that one.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it.
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're returning home from a road trip and whatever,
• 56:24
  Speaker 5: but that might still be the strongest play out of
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: these three though, is to look towards taking the points
• 56:30
  Speaker 5: with Connecticut. Indiana at Washington is on peacock. Washington, I
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: think is one and one Cup play so far. I
• 56:37
  Speaker 5: think both these teams are I think the Cup started
• 56:41
  Speaker 5: in June, for whatever that's even worth.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: Washington.
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: By the way, they did go into Indiana and upset
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: Indiana in Indiana in overtime earlier, so Indiana might have
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: something to say about that in this game. So Indiana
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: might have a little bit of revenge on their mind here.
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: If you dig into that box score, Washington shot fifty
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: six percent from the field. Uh, so that's a bit
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: of an outlier there, Indiana only thirty nine percent. Indiana
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: had what is that twenty four more field goal attempts
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: in the game. So Indiana was the better team in
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: the game in various ways. So Washington should probably take it.
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: They should probably take a step back shooting wise here.
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: I'd expect them to regress a little bit.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: They also took.
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: Nine more free throws in the game, so that might
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: regress a little bit too. Indiana didn't shoot well from
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: the free throw line in the game. They also didn't
• 57:32
  Speaker 5: shoot well from the field, so that might have some
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: positive regression for Indiana. The problem that I have with
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: this game here, though, is that there are some regression
• 57:41
  Speaker 5: points on Indiana too, mostly the fact that they hit
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: eleven more three pointers in the game and they still
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: lost the game.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: That is not a good sign.
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: If you outscore a team by thirty three points from
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: long distance, there's no possible way that you should lose
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: that game, So that's not good. And Indiana got massively
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: out rebounded, they got out rebounded by fifteen and the
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: fact that Indiana had a plus ten turnover margin, it's
• 58:07
  Speaker 5: still lost the game, and that's the reason why they
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: had so many field goal attempts. That's kind of an
• 58:11
  Speaker 5: issue as well. So there I see some regression points
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: both ways here. So I don't really love that Indiana.
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: I think they're one on one conference in a cup
• 58:22
  Speaker 5: play as well. Like I said, they did just lose
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: to the Liberty. That was a tough game, dude. Indiana
• 58:26
  Speaker 5: was winning that game in the second half and then
• 58:28
  Speaker 5: they fell apart.
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: So I don't love that.
• 58:30
  Speaker 5: Like it could be a hangover spot for Indiana here,
• 58:33
  Speaker 5: coming off a game like that where you put in
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: a big effort and you have the league and you
• 58:37
  Speaker 5: think you're gonna win against one of the better teams
• 58:40
  Speaker 5: in the league, and then you fall apart and lose late.
• 58:43
  Speaker 5: I don't love that Indiana sets up that way here.
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: Washington did just get obliterated by Atlanta, so they might
• 58:50
  Speaker 5: show up with a bit more intensity here. Still looks
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: like a bit of a revenge spot for Indiana, though
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: they're laying five and a half on the road.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: They're laying that for a reason. But the money's all.
• 59:00
  Speaker 5: Coming in on Washington seventy five percent of tickets on Indiana,
• 59:03
  Speaker 5: fifty eight percent of the cash on Washington. Indiana's around
• 59:06
  Speaker 5: minus five here. I struggle with this game. I see
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: factors that support playing either team here, So I don't
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: want to do anything with that game.
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 59:17
  Speaker 5: I was initially leaning towards Indiana in that game. Uh,
• 59:21
  Speaker 5: it's really tough looking into it. There are arguments for
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: both sides, and the money is saying Washington to do
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: with that information what you want, but I want nothing
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: to do with it. And then Seattle at Las Vegas.
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: This is disgusting. This is just such a mismatch. This
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: is on USA Network. Seattle is one of the probably
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: bottom two teams in the league them in Connecticut. Vegas
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: is one of the best teams. Vegas is on a
• 59:45
  Speaker 5: three game win streak. They did just beat Golden State
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: in a return home spot and it was a potential
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: revenge game for Golden State and Vegas still want to
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: covered which I I thought that Golden State was going
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: to cover that. I thought they might have a chance
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: to win that game, and Vegas did only win by five.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: But now the Vegas is coming up that win against
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 5: a pretty good team. They're at home, they got Portland next.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're really gonna look ahead to Portland.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: But I don't know, man, I mean, I don't know
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: how much focus they're really gonna pay Seattle here. Seattle's
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: been awful. Seattle just lost by twenty points to Minnesota.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: They haven't won a Cup game yet. Vegas, by the way,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 5: has not been good at home so far. They tend
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 5: to struggle at home early in the season for whatever reason.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: They're one and two at home. They got obliterated by Phoenix.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: We played that game. We also played the LA game
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: against them, and they lost that game too. The game
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: after that, I thought they would bounce back, which they didn't.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: But then their most recent home game against Golden State
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: was their first home win, and that was another reason
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: why I thought they might not cover that. It was
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: because they hadn't been good at home. But now they're
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 5: back at home for two games in a row, so
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 5: maybe they will do a little bit better here.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: But I don't know.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 5: I think I would lean to Seattle here. You're just
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: getting a ton of points. Vegas is sixteen minus sixteen here.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: Seattle is seventy eight percent of tickets, ninety two percent
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 5: of the cash, and them it looks like the money
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 5: is taking Seattle to some extent here, and.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: It's a low total.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: It's the lowest total out of all three games, yet
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 5: the highest spread. So when you see that, when you
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 5: see a high spread and a low total, usually I
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 5: kind of want to look towards the dog because points
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 5: are gonna be a little bit harder to come by,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: so they're worth a little bit more. But I want
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 5: nothing to do with it. Zach, what's up? Thanks for
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 5: hanging out.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: Then we have this horrible NBA game here.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: I'm sick of this shit. San Antonio is not gonna
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: win the series. In fact, only two teams have ever
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 5: won the first two games of an NBA Finals on
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 5: the road, and they were both Michael Jordan Bulls teams.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: But I would, you know, dial that back a little
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: bit because I'm pretty sure in both those cases the
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: Bulls were the favorite in that series, even though they
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 5: were the road team that just happened to have the
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: worst record on the season. Them was against the Suns
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 5: with Charles Barkley, and the other one, I think the
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 5: other one was against Houston, who I think had won
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 5: the championship the year before that. The Michael Jordan baseball
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: year or whatever when I think he tried to come back.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 5: That was the one year during that seven year span
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 5: that the Bulls didn't win. Houston won the championship, I'm
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: pretty sure, which I think was against the Knicks, by
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 5: the way, in a ninety four or whatever that was,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 5: if I remember correct.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I was, I was pretty young. I
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: don't know.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: But then the year after, I still think the Bulls
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 5: were favored against them A year maybe they weren't, but
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 5: I don't know. But yeah, so I don't know. I
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 5: don't think the Knicks are really gonna sweep though.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 5: I mean usually when you have a team that loses
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 5: the first two games, whether it was on the road
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: or at home, I tend to look for the zig zag,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 5: like if you're the Knicks, right, Like, this is just
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 5: getting way too hyped up. Like people are talking about
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 5: how this is the most expensive Finals game to go
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: to in history. I know, inflation and shit like that,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: but the cheapest seats are like eighteen thousand bucks for
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 5: fucking balcony in this game. It's completely ridiculous because the
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: Knicks having menu for so long, The last time they
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: were in the Finals was I don't know. In the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: probably in the nineties, I don't even know. And then
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 5: the last time they're winning in the finals was that
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: Houston series in ninety four and Houston won the last
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 5: two games at home and won. Anyway, the last time
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 5: the Knicks were winning in a final series before this
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 5: year was literally the day of the OJ Bronco Chase.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 5: I watched that ESPN thirty for thirty recently, the Knicks
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 5: were playing that game where they took that series lead
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 5: game five during the OJ race. During the OJ cop Chase,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, crazy shit. Anyway, but you know, the
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 5: Knicks won both games on the road. They're coming back home.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: They're getting massive, massive hype here. Everybody's like totally hyped,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: everybody's paying all this money for it. You gotta think
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: they're feeling a little bit too overconfident right now. So
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 5: I think I would lean to san Antonio here. The
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: Knicks are two point favorite, two and a half. San
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 5: Antonio is getting the money fifty per ticket, sixty two
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on san Antonio. And remember san Antonio,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure they had the bigger lead in each
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: of the first two games. They were up double digits
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 5: in each of the first two games, and I know
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 5: New York was up double digits late in Game two
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 5: when san Antonio came all the way back and probably
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 5: should have won. They took the lead in the final
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: minutes of the game and then still lost anyway because
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: they fouled Jalen Brunson and he hit one of two
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: I think, and that's uh, that was the winning point
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 5: in that game. Uh. San Antonio is been playing good deepfense.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 5: So the Knicks their shooting has not been what it
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: was like the Knicks went on that historic shooting run,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: but that hasn't been the case in this series. And
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 5: in fact, the least the lowest amount of points that
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 5: the Knicks have scored in the playoffs is one oh
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 5: five and that's what they've scored in both games in
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 5: this series so far. So the Knicks have tied their
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 5: postseason low amount of points in both games in this series.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: Yet they won both games, and they kind of barely
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 5: won them both. San Antonio had the lead in both
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: games late in the game, so san Antonio could have
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 5: won both games. But then that's where it comes down
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 5: to experience. I think, like if the game is close late,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: that's kind of the problem. San Antonio is just way
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 5: too young right now, and they're making mistakes and not
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 5: playing well in the clutch. Even though they were able
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 5: to beat OKC in some clutch scenarios. He would think
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 5: that that would help them out with their experience. But
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: I did also say, I don't know. I had a
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: lot of conflicting opinions on this series, which is why
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 5: I haven't played well. I did play san Antonio Team
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 5: Total in Game two and that did not.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: Work out either, very very bad.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, I don't know, man, I mean
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 5: this series. I did think that the Knicks would probably
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: wind up winning the series, just because they're the more
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: experienced team. These guys have been in the playoffs repeatedly.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 5: San Antonio's players have not, so that's the thing. But
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: I think the Knicks might be a little bit overconfident here.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: You win both games on the road, you come back home,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean, it could be a little
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: bit of an distraction. I think even coming back home
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: and you're feeling like really good about yourselves, like basically
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: you know his Like I think, based on the odds
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: and whatever, the Knicks are basically eighty percent to win
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 5: this series now, and they're probably gonna do it, so
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: that's probably what's in their mind now. San Antonio's played
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 5: okay in the series though, Like like I said, they
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: were competitive.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: They they had.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 5: Chances to win both games, unlike in the OKC series,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: Like every game san Antonio loss was a blowout loss.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 5: That hasn't been the case in this series at all.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: But I looked at the last game, there weren't really
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 5: any outliers that I can really pick at, Like it
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 5: was a close game on the final score, and it
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: was a close game statistically, so there's not a whole
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 5: lot I could do here. Like both teams shot like reasonably.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: The Knicks did have more field goal attempts, so on
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 5: san Antonio did outshoot them percentage wise by a little bit.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: But the teams had similar free throw metrics. Uh, they
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 5: were fairly similar from three point range, So the Knicks
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 5: did hit four more threes, so they took way more
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 5: because san Antonio is kind of clogging the inside with
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: Wemba Wemby, so the Knicks are taken to the three
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: point taking to the three point range more. Actually my mistake.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: The Knicks did have the larger lead in this game.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: But San Antonio did lead by double digits in the
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 5: game as well, though, and the rebound battle was close.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 5: I just don't see any outliers here that I can
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 5: really latch onto here. Like it was a close game
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: and the final score was close. I mean, that's about
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 5: all you could really say. Both teams shot like pretty
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 5: much around league averages, so like there's it's really there's
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: nothing you can zigzag here.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: There weren't really any outliers in that game.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I think motivationally, I think maybe New York
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 5: might take their foot off the gas a little bit here.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 5: Being in a situation like this San anton you know,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: would be the way I would lean here. I just
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: hope that San Antonio can get a win here and
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: make this a series again at least fuck the Knicks.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 5: In my opinion, the money is also coming in towards
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 5: the under for what that' sort of I don't think
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 5: I agree with that. Seventy one percent of tickets on
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 5: the over, fifty nine percent of the cash on the
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: over public will probably be on an over totals of
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 5: two sixteen and a half. But I think both games
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: so far have gone under right. First game definitely went
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: under and yeah, and then the first game I said
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: two ten, I meant two hundred when I saw that. Yeah,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 5: the first game landed two hundred. The second game landed
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: two nine. So both games have gone under the totals
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 5: so far. So I think, you know, maybe there's a
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: little bit of a chance to zigzag that and go
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 5: over here, but I don't think i'd want to do
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 5: that either because of the travel. Like I think, the
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 5: overs tend to happen more when there's one day off
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: and the teams are staying in the same venue, then
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 5: the defenses are a little bit less resting and the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: shooters are used to the venue, you know what I mean.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 5: Although every venue in the NBA is basically the same
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 5: site lines really, so it doesn't really matter. It's not
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 5: like college basketball where everything's a bit different. But yeah,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 5: I think an over maybe worth a consideration here, but
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 5: I don't I would not want to do it though,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 5: But then again, these teams did have an extra day
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 5: off because they had to travel, so that can cool
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 5: off the offenses a little bit. I don't know, I
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 5: don't want to deal with the game at all. Probably
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 5: if you forced me to give you a play on
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 5: that game, it would probably be San Antonio plus the points,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: but I don't want to do that either, So.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: It's a pass for me on the board today.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: Man, I apologize, but that's what it is my I
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 5: think the best plays that are on the board today
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 5: are Red Sox money line and Astros money line. Though
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 5: that that was my feel when I looked at this board.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 5: So if you want to play one or both of those,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 5: I guess have that it. I'm gonna I'm gonna sit
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 5: it out, but and then jump back intomorrow and find
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: some hopefully better spots to the best situational spot today
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 5: is the Washington Nationals with the pitching matchup. I just
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: I can't do them and watch Washington win the game,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 5: you know which at least.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: That'll mean that my lean was right. But I just
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: I can't do it.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 5: I can't do it, man, I can't back me Cholas
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 5: against web All right, that's gonna do it.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: I'm sick. I gotta fix my voice here, got to
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: rest it.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it to one on Instagram,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 5: like subscribe to the channel here, let's boost this thing.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else I even have have to
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: talk about here.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: We're on audio Apple, Spotify, Spreaker covered in yuke on
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 5: YouTube my uke cover channel check that out. Patreon dot com,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 5: slash Learn the Tone have some bonus stuff there. Obviously
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 5: I can't sing right now the way that the things
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 5: are going. Gotta get that feed updated still though, for
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 5: the Spotify patreons or for the patreons the Spotify feed.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: Loser casts will be back tomorrow.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 5: Hopefully my voice will be doing better and giants g
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 5: spot podcast check it out, everybody.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 5: We'll have a relaxing Monday, I guess. Hopefully I'll try
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 5: to get healthier. I felt the sickness coming on yesterday
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 5: so last night, so it might get worse.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: Peace, but don't you go quiet.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: look at me. Now, hold on, hold on nothing.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: Nice, now, hold on, hold on. Let me pull that
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: bad bites hard, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: hold on and stay with me now