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Week Zero Chaos & Picks: Eight Games, Three Dangerous Dogs?! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: So there's judges and courtrooms that are still trying to
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: decide whether or not players can come back from the
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: NFL to play in college football this season. And the
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: season starts in less than a week. I mean, it's
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: it's absurd. And no, not every team is playing this weekend,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: but the chemistry stuff going on is going to be nuts.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Week zero is coming up. That's right, we got eight
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: games to discuss. I'm gonna give you my picks and
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: what my model thinks, et cetera for each of those
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: right now, Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It is a
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: WCE on all the different socials, most active on X obviously,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: and you can, of course check out the website when
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: he cares everything dot com.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Subscribe like the video.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: All that good stuff gonna be here all season law
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you will join us. We have a lot of
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: fun things in store. There's only eight games this week,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: so I'm just gonna go over all of them. Each week,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: I normally do the top ten biggest games and then
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: the games that I like the most and other random wins, etc.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I will give you my official plays. We'll go from there.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: But yeah, let's not waste.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: A lot of time.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Let's go on and get into game number one. Game
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: number one, eleven AM Central Time, God's time zone. Of course,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: this went on ESPN. It's from Dublin, Ireland, and this
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: would be the TCU Horned Frogs against the North Carolina
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: tar Heels. The original spread on this was like six
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. It has gone up to seven and
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: a half in some places in favor of TCU. As
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: you can see, the model here has TCU minus four
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: point four, so not nearly what you would think.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Everybody seems to be.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Crapping just all over North Carolina this offseason, and it
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: is completely justified. It makes the most sense. Like they
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: were awful last year. You've had a lot of things
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: going on, with the general manager being on leave, the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, I don't even know if he's back yet.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: That's Steve Belichick. It's Bill Belichick's son. But TCU has
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: not been free of drama themselves, right. Jacob Fields, star
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: safety that came over from Louisiana Tech. He has been
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: dismissed from the team. There's all kinds of things going on.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: So let's take a look at what's happening here. Not
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: to mention the game is in Ireland. There have been
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: games in Ireland the last four seasons. The underdogs have
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: won outright in three of them.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: So just something to pay attention to. Don't forget.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Bobby Patrino is the new offensive coordinator for North Carolina TCU.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Of course, Gordon Samus he was at Yukon last year.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: Patrino is awesome.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: He's awesome, and he's going to find a way to
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: make this offense work.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: On the other.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm curious they have the average offensive rank based
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: on experience, based on everything else is like number one
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: oh eight. I think they're gonna perform significantly better than that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Sunny Dike's always has a good offense. I think they're
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be fine, especially with this new guy, Gordon sam
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Is coming in. Andy Avalos's defense should be pretty good.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: The North Carolina defense should be pretty good. The fact
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: that this thing is over seven and a half seems
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: a little odd to me. Uh, North Carolina better than
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: you would think. As far as their roster number fifty
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: five and on three's full talent or full roster talent,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: TCU is number thirty one. But when you start going
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: by a position group. I don't think North Carolina is
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: that bad. And I'm curious about all of this. Like
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: at TCU, everybody seems to think that they could be
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: a team that could end up going nine and three,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: eight and four, some thing along those lines like they
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: have been doing Underdykes. But what if North Carolina is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: pretty good and can actually pull off something Because this
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: is a completely different North Carolina team than what you
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: saw last year. I'm just saying, I feel like seven
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: and a half maybe a little bit too big here.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: This is not one that I'm going to play. But
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: as far as a pick for the show, yeah, I'm
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: gonna go with North Carolina if I'm getting more than
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: a touchdown, which is exactly what we're getting here. So
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I shop around for these lines. By the way, if
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: you're going to bet this one, because you can get
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: a five and a half for TCU, or you can
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: get a seven and a half for North Carolina, North
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Carolina plus seven and a half minus one oh two,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: it's it stinks.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: This is a trash bet. It's awful.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I understand that, but crazier things have happened in Ireland.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm a I'm gonna roll with this. Give
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: me North Carolina plus seven and a half. Game number two.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: We got USC hosting San Jose State this one two
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: pm Central time on NBC SO in early game out
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: in la USC right now favored by thirty eight and
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: a half, totally sixty and a half on it. My
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: number on this has USC by thirty six point four
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and thus begins the Lincoln Riley make it or break
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: it season?
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Right, jad Maieva.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Doing good things, did awesome last year, currently ranked as
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the number four quarterback room. That's even with losing Longstreet.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: This is not even a question, right, USC is going
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: to win this game. The question is by how much.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: That's why we talk about spreads on this show.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: San Jose State does like to run the ball. Craig
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Stutsman the offensive coordinator there. Could they find a way
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: to put potentially put points on the board. My guess
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: is going to be no. A lot of bets on
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: San Jose State at this number. The number has not
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: moved and I'm talking an astronomical amount at multiple books,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: and yet nobody's moving the line. USC Lincoln Riley, they
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: like to come out put up big numbers early this
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: seems like one of those spots where they will come
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: out and even with the backups in, they're still probably
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: going to score and score and score. Fifty two to
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: ten gets this covered. Fifty five to thirteen gets this covered.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: You know something along those lines.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I think, I know it's a huge number, but when
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: you look at offensive line versus defensive line, et cetera,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: there's I just don't know how San Jose State holds
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: up in this game. USC is going to look to
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: put a big number up early.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: They did it last year.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: They Lincoln Riley has always done this against overmatched opponents.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: He takes his starters out eventually, but he lets his
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: second string and his third string get some run. And
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: they don't just call off the dogs. They run exactly
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: what they were going to do, just with different personnel,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: and they will continue to do the same thing here.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: I don't anticipate San Jose State having much of a
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: shot here. So, even though this number is pretty outrageous
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and it goes against my model, I'm going to go with.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: USC to cover the thirty eight and a half.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Game Number three, the game that was supposed to be
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: in Brazil, Virginia is hosting NC State. This one at
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: two thirty pm Central Time on ESPN. It's in Charlottesville, Virginia.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Now it is a home game for the Who's and
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: right now Virginia favored by five and a half. This
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: one has kind of bounced a little all over. It
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: opened at three and a half, got all the way
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: up to six six and a half in a couple
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: of spots, has since been met back down. A lot
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: of love for NC State this year. They did lose
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: some guys obviously. You see, based on their returning production,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: they are number forty one in returning production. Virginia is
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: number thirty five. Now this is adjusted returning production. It
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: includes people that are starters, etc. That have come into
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: the programs. But you know, I'm curious about NC State
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: and their defense and what this defense is going to
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: look like. Ever since they lost Tony Elliott or not Elliott,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: excuse me, gracious, the guy that's at Marshall. Anyway, we'll
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: get back to that. We'll get back to them. My
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: brain went blank for a minute. Ever since they lost him,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: defense has kind of fallen off, and the defense has
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: been falling off for quite some time. That defensive line,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I've got it as the number eighty one group, the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: number eighty one defensive line in the country. That's not
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: very good considering Virginia is number four. There, defensive line
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: for Virginia number twenty five as far as experience, talent,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: et cetera. And then the offensive line for ncis State
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: is number sixty seven. The difference here to me, and
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I will go on and tell you I took in
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: C State plus six. Since our number right now is
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: five and a half, I'm gonna go ahead and take
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: it a five and a half for show purposes. But
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I think n C State can stay in this I
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: trust Dave Dorin as a coach. I wonder about Tony Elliott.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: As you know, last year one eleven ball games. It
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: was a crazy successful year. Can they bring in as
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: much turnover as they did for a second time? Do
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I think that this offense can run as well with
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Bo Privula or whoever ends up taking that job. I
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: think it's I think Privula is the starter. Can the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: offense run as well as it did with Chandler Morris?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Morris was almost the perfect quarterback for what they were
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: trying to do last year.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: I like CJ. Bailey better as a quarterback. And you know, I.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Look at the back seven FRENCY State. I think they
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: got some real dudes back there. Curious about the lines
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: of scrimmage, though, so I think this one could end
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: up being pretty tight. My model has NC State as
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: only a one point four point underdog. I'm gonna go
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: with NC State to keep this thing relatively close. Virginia
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: won a lot of one score games last year. Maybe
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: a little regression headed this way. I'm curious about that. So,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: you know, Virginia, as far as experience and everything, they've
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: got the most snaps coming back at least transfers in
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: et cetera. They got the most snaps of experience in
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: the entire ACC. I still think NC State can hang
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: around in this game. So we're gonna take the wolf
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Pack plus the five and a half. What extra Winning
• 11:01
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• 11:03
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• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Game number four and we have the first ever FBS
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: game for the North Dakota State Bison. They're hosting Jacksonville State.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: This one's four thirty pm Central Time on CBS Sports
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Network right now, this one at the Fargo Dome. North
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Dakota State is a six and a half point favorite. Now,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: this thing has gone all the way up to ten
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: at one point. It has now gotten all the way
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: under a touchdown. My number has this North Kota State
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half. And if you look on
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: the screen, you will see based on last year's numbers,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: and no, North Kota State did not play an FBS
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: schedule last year, but if you toss in what their
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: numbers were into the FBS ratings, they were number three
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: in success margin last year, number one in predicted points
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: added margin, and number nine an explosive play margin last year.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State was nothing close to that. Obviously, a much
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: more difficult schedule for Jacksonville State.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: There's some.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: I'm interested in this one because I know that crowd
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: is going to be absolutely insane. They are going to
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: be all over the place for this game. But I
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: don't know what to expect because when you look at experience, talent, etc.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, North Kota State is number eighty one in
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: adjusted returning production. They were awesome last year, but they
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: are number one thirty four and on three full roster talent.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Can you take a really strong FCS team, move them
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: up to FBS and have them just dominate against a
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: lower level conference seat well not lower level, how about
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: this a championship caliber CUSA team. I'm intrigued because when
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: you start looking at position groups based on talent, experience,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: et cetera, this is not the same North Akota State
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: team that they were last season. They were awesome last year.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Even still, Jacksonville State was pretty good last year, and
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: I love their quarterback. I think they're going to be awesome.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I think he makes a huge, huge difference here, and
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that Jacksonville State defensive line ain't nothing to sniff at.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: This is going to be an interesting test for North
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Dakota State. However, they are at home and they are
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: going to be fired up for this. I am curious
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: whether or not Jacksonville State's defense can stop this triple
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: option attack because I don't think Tim polasecond company are
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: going to change what they do on offense.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: It'll be some new.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Pieces, but this is a difficult, difficult spot. My number
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: has a North Kota State minus three and a half.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go against the model on this because I
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: think we don't know exactly what the home field advantage
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: is going to be yet. But that thing got down
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: to six and a half. I'm gonna take North Dakota
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: State to cover the six and a half. It's below
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. I'll go with that because I think they
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: are going to be absolutely bouncing off the walls in
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the Fargo Dome. But I don't think that this is
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: just going to be as simple as North Dakota State
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: moves up, they play in the Mountain West and they
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: go undefeated. I think there's gonna be some growing pains here.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be an interesting game. But North Dakota
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: State minus six and a half for me, at.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Least for this show.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Game number five and we got a mac battle and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: it is the first game for Sacramento State going on
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: the road to Ipsilani. They're gonna take on the Eastern
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Michigan Eagles here and everybody at this point, if you've
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: been watching me for any amount of time, should know
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: that I love Chris Creighton and what he has done
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: with that program. They are a bunch of rabid dogs.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: That's that's how I see it, a bunch of rabid dogs.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: They will fight you in the parking lot and then
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: go inside and still beat your end inside.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: And I love it.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: I love how tough this team is always so. Alonzo
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Carter is the new head coach for Sacramento State. As
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: far as on three full roster talent, you're looking at
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: number one thirty one and number one thirty two. These
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: are two not very talented football teams. And you start
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: looking at adjusted returning production Eastern Michigan number thirty three
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: in adjuster returning production. Noah caim Back at quarterback, Sacramento
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: State number one thirty one. So they're head coach, of course,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: headed off to Colorado. He has taken his go go
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: offense with him. He was only there for one season.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: And now and now we've got a line of Eastern
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Michigan minus eight and a half with a total of
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: fifty two and a half on this there's no position
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: on the field where Sacramento State has an advantage.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: Not to mention, they have to travel.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Not to mention, this is their first FBS, our first
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: game as an FBS member, the offense could be good.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: They were number twenty one in PPA margin last year,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: but different head coach, different scheme, different everything. I have
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: no idea what they're going to look like this time around.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: I like Eastern Michigan.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: I like what they do, but.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: The number is a little bit crazy at eight and
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a half. I haven't known what to do with this
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: because my number has itated Eastern Michigan minus five and
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: a half. I think Eastern Michigan wins. I don't feel
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: super comfortable laying more than two scores with them. However,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think Sacramento State is very good at all.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: I think they are going to be awful, especially on
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: these road games. And it's not like, you know, this
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: is ESPN Plus game. It's five thirty PM Central, so
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: it's only a three thirty body clock game for Sacramento State.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: But I still think Eastern Michigan is set up to
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: have a pretty good year in the MAC this year.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go against the model and I am
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: going to side with Sacramento State or sorry, with Eastern Michigan.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Eastern Michigan minus the eight and a half.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna kind of lay it on them.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Like I like Chris Creighton, normally he's not at his
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: best as a favorite. I think this game's a little
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: bit of a different circumstance. But when you look at
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the offensive line and the defensive line, I think Eastern
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Michigan has a significant advantage there. So give me EMU
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: minus eight and a half, game number six, and we
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: are going out to the farm. That's right Palo Alto.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Stanford hosting Hawaii, looking for a little bit of revenge
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: after last year Stanford.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: This is six pm.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Central time game on the ACC Network and Stanford right
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: now a five and a half point favorite. Total is
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: forty nine and a half. This thing was three three
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: and a half at a couple of I think it
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: was two and a half even at one point. It
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: got bet all the way up to six at one point,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: and now we've had a little bit of buyback on Hawaii.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: A lot of people love Stanford in the spot. I
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: think a lot of people loved Stanford when it was
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: a field goal, and now we're we've reached that point
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: where it's certainly questionable, right, certainly questionable. Timmy Chang, the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: head coach at Hawaii. They are number eighty six in
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: adjuster returning production. Stanford is number thirty seven.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: Hawaii. The offense is always going to be pretty good.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: The issue for them.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: This year is the line of scrimmage, and Stanford has
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: a massive advantage with their offensive line against Tway's defensive line.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: The quarterback situation that Stanford last year was atrocious, but
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: they were demolishing Hawaii at the line of scrimmage and
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: they just stopped.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: Running the football.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: And I don't get it, no idea why they did
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: what they did, but it is what it is. I
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: like Michae Alejandra, the quarterback for Hawaii. I don't know
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: that he's going to have a ton of protection in
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: this one. And it's not that Stanford has a great
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: defensive line or anything like that, but they do have
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: a top forty linebacking crew and a top forty back seven.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: So I mean, this number got out there, it's five
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: and a half. My number has it Stanford minus three
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: point six. I don't know what to expect out of
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Tavita Pritchard. I think Andrew luck finally has this thing
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: going in the right direction. Davis Wade, a quarterback I mean,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: we've got Stanford at number one nineteen as far as
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: their quarterback room is concerned, so Hawaii has a big
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: advantage there, but almost everywhere else on the field, Stanford
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: has a huge advantage, and the biggest thing is at
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: I'm curious about this.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: So Hawaii having to come to the mainland Stanford looking
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: to get off to a much better start than they
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: did last year. I mean, my model really wants to
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: go Hawaii on this, but I gotta believe that Hefferman
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and Chris Richard, etc. I think that the coordinators and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Tivita Prichard are going to rely on the thing that
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: will work against an outmanned opponent, and that is running
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the football, stopping the run, getting after the quarterback, all
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: the simple things. When you have better athletes than somebody else,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: and you start to look at the full roster talent,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Stanford number fifty, which is not great for Power four,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: but significantly better than what Hawaii's got at number one fourteen.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: So I will I will go with Stanford here, minus
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: the five and a half. Anything under a touchdown, I
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: think I'm gonna feel pretty good about because I don't
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: think Hawaii can keep up so long as so long
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: as they run the football and they just keep trusting
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: their offensive and defensive lines. That's that's my thing. So
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Stanford minus five and a half is my pick.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: There.
• 21:23
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• 21:45
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• 21:49
  Speaker 1: everywhere you get a podcast. Game number seven, New Mexico
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: State heads down to Tallahassee. Week zero game for Florida
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: State and Mike Norvel enters a very.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Tumultuous season. We'll call it that.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: The line right now Florida State minus thirty one and
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: a half. This one is six pm Central Time on
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: the CW over under is fifty.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Three and a half. Here.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: My number on this based on the model, has Florida
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: State as a twenty four point favorite. Seems a little odd.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: But when you start going back and looking, Action Network
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: has ninety seven percent of the bets on New Mexico State.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Ninety seven percent. I mean that is that is outrageous.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Florida State came out last year, ran through Alabama, ran
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: through whoever the FCS team was that they play, and
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: they beat them like seventy seven to three. Their numbers
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: were good basically every week. The issue was turning the
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: football over. Ashton Daniels is the new quarterback. Came from Stanford,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: went to Auburn.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Now he is at Florida.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: State, and while a lot of people are not huge
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: fans of his, I think they can be fine. You know,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator for Florida State here, Tony White is
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator who of course came over from Nebraska
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: however many years ago.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: My Florida State numbers are not bad.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: And while maybe I'm just not as down on New
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Mexico State as some people.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Because Tony Sanchez, He's been there for a little bit.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: At this point, the quarterback situation I think is better
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: for Florida State than a lot of people seem to believe.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: The offensive and defensive lines are better and this is
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: one of those kind of games where Norvelle is going
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: to want to put up points. So while my number
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: on it is twenty four, the fact that I can
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: get a thirty and a half out there, yeah, there's
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: still thirty and a halfs. There's nothing that's telling me
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: that they won't be able to put up points against
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: an outmann opponent. They did it multiple times last year.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: I think they will do it again this year. And
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: they are going to want to do this if any
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: of them wants to try and save Mike Norvell's job.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: This will not be the game that decides that they
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: are going to put up an astronomical number. They do
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: it against non conference sponents routinely, so I would expect
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: a huge, huge number here. When you look at Florida
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: State's offensive line, I've got them the number forty eighth
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: unit in the country, New Mexico State's defensive line number
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: ninety three. You look at just on three full roster talent,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Florida State number forty seven, New Mexico State number one
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: oh five, Florida State number fifty six in adjuster returning production,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: New Mexico State number eighty eight. So no Florida State
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: may not have national championship quality, but I can get
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: a line that's less than thirty one, I'm gonna take that.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: I feel goo about the skill talent. I feel good
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: about all of that, at least in this matchup for
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Florida State. So I will take the seminals at minus
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: thirty and a half here because I have very little
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: trust in Tony, said Chez and his bunch to keep
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: this one close. So Florida State minus thirty and a
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: half game number eight in the last game of Week zero,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: the UNLV Rebels and mister Dan Mullen. They are hosting
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: the Memphis Tigers. Charles huff in his first year there.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: This number right now UNLV is favored by six. My
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: number has it UNLV minus five and a half. Now,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: I do believe that Memphis is going to outperform their rating,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: but when I punch stuff into the calculator, this is
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: what comes out. I'm totally honest with you guys, and
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I tell you which way I go, whether my number
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: likes it or not. The on three roster talent has
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Memphis number seven UNLV number eighty three. When you look
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: at a Justice returning production, both of these are outside
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: of the top one hundred. Forget what these teams were
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: last year. This is a completely different thing. Anthony Calandria
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: was the quarterback for UNLV last year. He is gone,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: he is now at Nebraska. Now in comes Jackson Arnold and.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: The kid that was at Michigan. We don't know Alex Orgy.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: There we go. We don't know which one is going to.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Start yet, but the fact that Jackson Arnold has not
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: wrapped that thing up is intriguing to me. This one,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: by the way, nine pm Central Time on Fox. It's
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: at Allegiant Stadium. UNLV minus six total is fifty seven
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: and a half on this which has come down from
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the fifty nine and a half that it was. The
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: coordinators for Memphis, I am absolutely in love with, absolutely
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: in love with Yes, Cory Dennis is a great offensive
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: coordinator for UNLV. That's mostly a Dan Mullen offense, right,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest with ourselves. Lance Guidry, I
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: think he is an outstanding defensive coordinator.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: It did not go great at Miami, okay, But when
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: he was at Marshall, that team was They were full
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: of wrecking balls. Like he did amazing things at Marshall.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: So Kevin Decker is the offensive coordinator. He came over
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: from Old Dominion. I'm a fan of that. Like I
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: think Kevin Decker is great as well. This is a
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: very very interesting matchup. UNLV's defense was atrocious last year.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: They are number ninety six in adjuster deserning production. Memphis
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: is number one oh eight. But you start looking at
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: the most important matchup on the field to me, and
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: it's not quarterback, It's not you know.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: I think it's.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Gonna be stakes for Memphis and we'll see who whether
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: it's Jackson Arnold or Alex Orgy for UNLV, either one
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: of those should be able to run that offense. The
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: thing for me is Memphis is number fifty eight on
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the defensive line, UNLV number eighty eight on the offensive line,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: and on the other side, UNLV number one thirty two
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: on their defensive line, Memphis number fifty nine for their
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: offensive line. There's some boys playing for Memphis. They have
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: a their roster looks like an ACE or AAC championship roster,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: and UNLV, I think has some holes that they got
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: to figure out. I'm I think this game could be
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: really really close. It would not shock me in the
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: slightest two c Memphis win this thing out right. I
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: trust Charles Huff as a head coach. I think he's fantastic.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: This is going to be an awesome, awesome Week zero
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: football game. So when you start looking at line of scrimmage,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: you start looking at you know, skill versus back seven,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. Like there are some things
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: where UNLV has advantages. But Memphis got some dudes, like.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Some real dudes, real real dudes.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: So my number has this UNLV minus five and a half,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I can get a UNLV six. I'm gonna take Memphis
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: plus the six, and I might sprinkle a little bit
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: on the money line on this, so I will feel.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: Really good about that. All right. So let's recap these
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Week zero picks.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I'm taking North Carolina plus seven and a half, USC
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: minus thirty eight and a half. I am taking NC
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: State plus six or I guess plus five and a half.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I am taking North Dakota State minus six and a half.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I am taking Eastern Michigan minus eight and a half,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: Stanford minus five and a half, Florida State minus thirty
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: one and a half, and Memphis plus six feels really
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: really chalky. It's not so much five favorites, three dogs.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: That's not atrocious. That's not atrocious.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: We'll see.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: We'll see how that does for me, and I guess
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: for you guys, y'all tell me what your picks are.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Jump in the comments, let me know. I want to
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: know what you're doing this year, what you're thinking, how
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: things are going. It's been a little while. I'm ready
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: to get back into the swing of things. Hopefully you
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: are as well. With that said, though, let's not waste
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: a bunch of time. If you hadn't subscribed, go ahead
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: and subscribe. Don't forget buy ma cooffee dot com slash
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures and the web store is up and rocking
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: to go ahead and check that out. If you want
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: to wear a Winning Cures Everything t shirt, that'd be
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: good for me. I would appreciate it. Right With that said,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: let's get out of here, take care of yourself, take
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: care of each other.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: God bless college football, and hopefully all of your tickets
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
• 30:57
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• 31:01
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