Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Tehran squeezes Riyadh | feat. Bernard Haykel

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Tehran squeezes Riyadh | feat. Bernard Haykel · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good morning.
• 0:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's Wednesday, September 16th, the moldy front more on the Middle East is now 1,075 days old.
• 0:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Jonathan Shanzard.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good to be back in the saddle.
• 0:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the FDD morning brief.
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think it's safe to say that we have officially reached the utter chaos portion of this war.
• 0:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Holy City of Mecca is now under attack by the Ron back, Oothies.
• 0:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Saudi East West pipeline is down.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oil is not only it's
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Mickey is not only making its way to the western side of the country, or it's not making its way to the western side of the country.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Iran-backed terror groups in Iraq made sure of that when they struck this 745 mile pipeline back on September 10.
• 0:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: This comes in the midst of an energy crunch that was already well underway as soon as the Iranian regime closed the state of Hormuz months ago.
• 0:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: And as if that's not enough, the hoopies are now poised to close the
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: After making some significant advances along the Yemeni coastline of the Red Sea, what's remarkable here is that Israel has nothing to do with any of this.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: What began with Hamas on October 7th, nearly three years ago has given way to an asymmetric war in the Persian Gulf with Irani regime bombing everybody and everything directly or by proxy.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Where this leads is anybody's gas, but the panic is beginning to set in both in the Middle
• 1:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: including here in Washington, so stay tuned.
• 1:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Life comes yet.
• 1:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: You're pretty fast.
• 1:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you're a Saudi royal three years ago, the Saudis were on the cusp of normalization with Israel.
• 1:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: But when Israel struck back at Hamas after October 7, the Saudis got cold feet, then they sat on the sidelines of this war for more than two years.
• 1:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: But that was never going to last.
• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: When the war against the Iranian regime erupted earlier this year, it didn't take long for the regime to start bombing the Saudis.
• 1:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: We oddly and don America for air defense, but a bunch of missiles and drones got through.
• 2:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Then the Houthis jumped into the fray.
• 2:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: They also began to bomb Saudi Arabia, so the Saudis began to panic.
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's when they signed a pact with Turkey and Pakistan, except neither countries lifted a finger to help, so the Saudis turned a Donald Trump who declined to bomb the Houthis on their behalf.
• 2:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: So now, get this.
• 2:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Saudi Arabia wants Israel to help against the Houthis.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: They want Israel to map out Houthi deployments and to help develop operational plans.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Some serious Houths, but if you ask me, that all said, I sincerely hope the Israelis give the Saudis everything they need.
• 2:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I also hope that the Saudis understand what all this means.
• 2:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like it or not, Israel is their ally.
• 2:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's not how this is explained in Arabic to the Saudi people.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: But in plain English, Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the same side of this war.
• 2:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like I said,
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Life comes at you pretty fast, if you're a Saudi royal.
• 2:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now for your headlines headline one, Ronnie a foreign minister, Abastarokchi is in Beijing today.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Not for a steaming bowl of beef low main.
• 3:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, he's there to be with this Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.
• 3:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is the second time Iraq she is visited, China since May and he's met with Wang twice in the interim on the sidelines of international summits.
• 3:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: According to Iranian state media, Iraq she's visit.
• 3:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Will focus on deepening economic and security ties between the two countries.
• 3:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: China wants nothing more than to keep this work going.
• 3:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: The more America spends down its munitions, the easier conquering Taiwan will be.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the longer this thing plays out, the weaker America looks to its allies.
• 3:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Watch this space folks.
• 3:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's a serious factor that could widen the scope of this war and certainly lengthen it.
• 3:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: headline to a Russian bank just got dinged by the U.S. Treasury for laundering dirty Iranian money.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Earlier this week, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Moscow's VTB bank for helping Iran invade sanctions.
• 3:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: The bank continues to operate inside Iran giving the regime a vital economic lifeline and allowing it to move billions of frozen assets, billions of dollars that is, or maybe rubles, I don't know.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: And here's the part where I remind you that Russia's strategy is pretty much China's strategy.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's to keep the Iranian regime in the game for as long as possible to make sure that the United States spends down on its munitions and loses the trust of its allies.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: I might also imagine that the rising cost of oil is a nice boost to the Kremlin's war chest.
• 4:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: But watch the headlines this morning folks.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Russians are now now crying foul because they don't like what they've learned.
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: advantage America.
• 4:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe for now.
• 4:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Headline three, Malaysia sees three shipping containers headed for Israel as they translated through a major Malaysian port.
• 4:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: The seizures happen last month and authority still haven't released the goods.
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yesterday, Malaysian Prime Minister N.R.
• 4:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Eberheem, who is by the way, a raging anti-Semite for those unfamiliar, confirmed that authorities detained the shipments and declared his government will continue to search and
• 5:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: Malaysia he said will not be a conduit for shipments that support Israeli military operations for quote atrocities and quote against the Palestinian people here's the thing the cargo sees last month reportedly contained electric bicycle parts
• 5:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Woohoo scary no guns no ammo just bike parts remind you here that Malaysia has welcomed Hamas operatives on to its soil for years they should be identified as a state sponsor of terrorism in this country full stop.
• 5:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And a late breaking headline this morning, Vice President J.D.
• 5:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Vance has taken aim at Israel.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, saying that American foreign policy is not subservient to the Jewish state.
• 5:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Not sure why he continues to feel the need to say such things, but it certainly does not give one a sense that relations are right between the Israelis and the V.P.'
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: 's office.
• 5:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: This dynamic needs to change and soon.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, time for the main event.
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: Our guest today is a repeat offender.
• 5:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're talking about Bernard Heikol, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at the Great Princeton University.
• 6:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's a fluent Arabic speaker with a PhD in oriental studies from Oxford, and he's forgotten more about the Middle East than most people ever learn.
• 6:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: he's just authored a new book about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also known as MBS and the remarkable transformation that he has led in Saudi Arabia.
• 6:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and Bernard's got some what of a recent addition or a
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: He is somewhat of a recent addition to FTD.
• 6:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: He is now a fellow with us.
• 6:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: So with the Saudis getting hammered by the Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis out of Yemen and with the Holy City of Mecca coming under fire with no credible help in sight, it was no brainer to bring Bernardo under the program.
• 6:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: So let's do this.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's bring him on to the show.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the FTD Morning Brief Bernardo Hickel.
• 6:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: Morning.
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: How are you?
• 6:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm doing reasonably well, thanks for asking.
• 6:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, I need to get into this right away.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what we have right now, we talk about the Saudis being the custodians and the two holy sites, right?
• 7:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: These are the mosques in Mecca and Medina, Mecca, being the big one, that's the, I don't know, let's call it the Holy of Holies.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: But then we also have this East West Pipeline that is also under fire, right?
• 7:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's the third holy, I guess we could call it, the third holy of Holies.
• 7:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: So we got East West Pipeline, Mecca, both under fire.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: What is going on here, and is it complete and tonal panic time for the sounds?
• 7:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think it is actually very, a very, very bad time for Saudi Arabia.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's really facing an existential threat from three sides, so from the south, from the Houthis and Yemen, from the north in Iraq with the Shiite militias.
• 7:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: both houthis and the shat militias or proxies of Iran and from the east from Iran itself.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran has kind of more or less held back compared to the attacks it waged against countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE by not hitting Saudi as much and has now basically
• 8:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, given its proxies, the role of attacking the Saudis where it really hurts.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the East West pipeline was the spy plan that transport 7 million barrels of oil from the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, which is where the most of the oil is located to the Red Sea.
• 8:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: This was the main export conduit for the Saudis given that Hormos is more or less shut.
• 8:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the Houthis are essentially threatening to blow that up, which is stop the shipments out of the Red Sea.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they've attacked the East West pipeline.
• 8:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not clear whether it's the Houthis or the Iraqi militias within this, but the targeting was incredibly precise, and it was the one point in the pipeline at pumping station 11 that they hit the one place that hadn't been hardened, because the Saudis didn't think it needed to be hardened.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: It seems like the Russians probably maybe even the Chinese would have helped with the targeting, given the precision.
• 9:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the East West pipeline is actually four pipelines.
• 9:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's exactly where those four pipes come out of the ground, go into the pumping station, and it was hit, the oil flooded into the pumping station and blew it up.
• 9:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that means that the Saudis are
• 9:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: you know going to try to resume the flow and initially very little of it will flow rather than seven it will be closer to one or two or three maybe and it will take at least a month before they go back up to seven.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's you know 4% of global supply that's been disrupted and you'll you've seen you'll see it and you we have seen it in the increase in the price of oil it's at 117 110 as we speak today.
• 9:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that's, of course, on top that 4% that we're talking about or more, and that's in addition to the 20% that's been slowed and at times fully stymied out of the straight or foremost, you get a sense that there is a global strategy here to just,
• 10:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: hit global oil, and what's amazing to me is the lack of a global response.
• 10:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is insane from my perspective, but what do I know?
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, I think the Saudis also have even sharper view on what the Iranians are trying to do.
• 10:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the Iranians actually want to take over the entirety of the GCC, either directly
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so this desire to dominate the region and to take over the oil, which would give Iran over 50% of proven world's reserves, would essentially mean that Iran would become a major superpower.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's what I mean.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: That seems so unbelievably unlikely, given the fact that they don't have a numbers, they don't have the power project, and I mean, they're pretty weak military right now.
• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: But if you're listening to the Iranians, you listen to the Iranians in Persian.
• 10:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: You see that they make all kinds of threats of sending hundreds of thousands of these militia men from Iraq, South, and Houthis, North.
• 11:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they're constantly threatening the Saudis with actually a land invasion.
• 11:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: out.
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then the question is, you know, do the Saudis have the wherewithal to actually block such an invasion to where it's happened and you know how they would come, they would come and pick up trucks and and that too to pick up trucks and you know, yeah, yeah, I says style.
• 11:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Hamas style, if you will, and we saw that, you know, on our November 7th as well, amazing out these tactics don't change.
• 11:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, okay, so, um, these are the threats.
• 11:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Then you have this defense pack that the Saudis got into, I don't know, a month ago or so, this is the Mecca defense pack that was entered into with the Turks and the Pakistanis.
• 11:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: This was supposed to be, I guess, a deterrent.
• 11:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: to the Iranian regime, Sunni powers one nuclear, the other one, the second largest army in NATO, both in theory, bearing their teeth at the Iranian regime, telling them to, you know, cool their heels.
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: But we haven't seen anybody lift a finger from this alliance.
• 12:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: We don't see any meaningful response mounted even as the East West pipeline gets hit, even as Maca comes under fire.
• 12:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: So what gives?
• 12:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this thing just empty rhetoric and a lot of blusker?
• 12:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is there something more to it?
• 12:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it is more symbolic than it is substantive, and it was intended this pact, the so-called mecca pact, was intended really to try to get the Iranians to think more about negotiations rather than attack.
• 12:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: on Saudi Arabia.
• 12:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think actually the pact, if anything, signal to Iran Saudi Arabia's military weakness, because if you are strong enough to defend your country, you don't need actually to import troops from either Turkey or Pakistan to defend your territory.
• 13:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think it actually backfired in terms of the signaling to the Iranians, which may
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And more recently, still, I think this was yesterday, the conference of Saudi Arabia went to Egypt.
• 13:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think, again, with a request for some sort of defensive, you know, packed with the Egyptians.
• 13:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: But none of these countries would come to Saudi Arabia's defense, should it be attacked.
• 13:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And ultimately, it's really the United States that can do that just as it did in 1991,
• 13:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: But as you know, President Trump has said, no.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I want to talk about that.
• 13:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, first, it's just acknowledged.
• 13:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Egyptian military is, what's the technical word I'm looking for?
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Right, garbage.
• 13:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is not a military that is capable of really mounting any significant operations or defense.
• 13:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: So the idea of turning to the Egyptians for this, sure they got a lot of American platforms, but they don't have the army.
• 14:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: that was capable of defending Saudi Arabia in any way.
• 14:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: So this feels like total desperation, then what you have is this next turn that they make, which is going to Donald Trump directly, will be hat and hand here, asking for US assistance in taking on the hoothees.
• 14:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's turned down.
• 14:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, what this reminds me of in part was, I remember when the obkake facility was hit, I believe that was what 2018 or 2019.
• 14:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: So September 2019, right?
• 14:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
• 14:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: So get hit.
• 14:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: And this is supposed to be the big red line for the United States, right?
• 14:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: That we're going to be there to defend the Saudi oil and infrastructure and nothing happens.
• 14:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that was kind of, I mean, my conversations with Saudi
• 14:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: that was like a big eye opener right where they're saying whoa America's not here for us and here again it looks like America's not going to show up for the Saudis in any significant way.
• 15:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, we hear about SENCOM coordinating discussions and you know talking about defense strategy and maybe providing some air defenses all those are
• 15:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: dwindling.
• 15:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: So how is this playing out in Riyadh?
• 15:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: I cannot imagine that this is going to deepen ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia in the immediate future.
• 15:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I know, I think it was taken very badly that the president was a president Trump was unwilling to help, and frankly, I mean, we can get into the details of the attack of the truthy attack on Mokan and Babel Manda.
• 15:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm very surprised that they were able to take it so quickly, because, you know, this is open terrain.
• 15:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: I know this place, I've been to all these areas myself.
• 15:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it would have been quite easy to use Apache helicopters and see one-thirties to stop them.
• 15:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at the photos of these guys, they were all flip-flops and, you know, AK-47s.
• 16:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I mean, a kind of bozo army.
• 16:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And stay alert.
• 16:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're an issue for the hoothies.
• 16:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is hilarious.
• 16:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 16:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And still, you know, they were able to do what they did.
• 16:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, yes, the American, the American president, basically, I imagine said, look, I'm really busy with Iran.
• 16:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I can't, you know, deploy more forces to the Red Sea.
• 16:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have to take care of this yourself.
• 16:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, what the Saudis have done, especially after the attack in 2019 on UpClick,
• 16:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: and Khurais at the time was just look at diversifying their sort of security architecture.
• 16:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: They started talking to the Chinese more, much more.
• 16:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: They in fact signed a data on the China's Aegis with the Iranians.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think, frankly, all of that stuff about looking to outsiders is not going to help.
• 16:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, provide a replacement for the United States, and the U.S. will remain important.
• 16:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the thing to do immediately, and which is not happening, is that the GCC, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
• 17:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Most importantly, the UAE and Saudi Arabia really ought to coordinate militarily and in terms of defense and security, they're not doing that.
• 17:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that alliance really was created to begin with because of the Iranian rock war and it was a defensive alliance.
• 17:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's still militarily not doing what it's supposed to do.
• 17:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's one thing they could easily improve their own domestic capabilities.
• 17:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: The other is sooner or later, they're going to turn to Israel.
• 17:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 17:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, you've actually hit on two questions that I want to have.
• 17:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: So let's just start for just a second with the GCC.
• 17:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this has been an empty alliance, I think, in many ways.
• 17:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you see more disagreement than agreement amongst.
• 17:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: be participants, right?
• 17:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: You got the emeraldies in the Saudis, not on the same page for quite some time.
• 17:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've got a real rivalry that's been brewing.
• 17:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: I happen to think it's a silly one because I think they're the interests of Saudi and the UAE are fully aligned, whether they want to admit it or not.
• 18:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is like a distinction without much of a difference.
• 18:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is just like I want to be number one.
• 18:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, maybe I've out defending each other first and then argue about it later, about who's number one and who's number two in the Gulf.
• 18:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you got the Qataris, right, everybody hates them.
• 18:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, they've been a problem.
• 18:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're allying with the Iranians.
• 18:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: You got the Kuwaitis who were just full of blaster.
• 18:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: You got the Omanis who seemed like they're on the side of Iran.
• 18:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they're negotiating on behalf of the Iranians.
• 18:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bahrain, weak state.
• 18:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you put all these countries together.
• 18:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: You start to wonder,
• 18:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: like what kind of an alliance is this?
• 18:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, I guess my question to you is, is there any way for them to pull resources and to actually mount a serious military response to any threat or assist just been empty rhetoric for as long as the GCC has been in existence?
• 18:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: So look, I mean, in some areas they could pull their resources together, especially when it comes to air power, they all have superb air forces.
• 19:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: But as far as I understand, there's very little interoperability between the different systems, the different countries.
• 19:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is why SENTCOM is really important, because SENTCOM could help begin this coordination between them.
• 19:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I hear various reports about how well or badly that's going.
• 19:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, so under the umbrella of the United States, they could, you know, begin to improve their coordination.
• 19:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, but that would take years, right?
• 19:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this not something that happens like overnight in response to an Iranian or a houthi or a Shiit militia attack out of Iraq, right?
• 19:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is stuff that, I mean, kind of like our munitions problem, right?
• 19:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to take a timeline which we can't afford.
• 19:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's right, but they have to start somewhere and they have to build their own capacities.
• 19:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And frankly, given the threat that Iran poses to all of these countries, you would have expected by now for them to close ranks and to speak, to sing from the same himinal kind of thing.
• 20:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: But you don't see that happening at all.
• 20:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 20:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is frustrating, although, I mean, I think also not a surprise, it does make me wonder whether there's a future for this alliance, whether it needs to be some other alliance, which then brings me to this next point, which is, you know, we've got this reported meeting that just took place, hosted by Sancom somewhere in Europe, where it looks like the Saudis and
• 20:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: I guess providing some kind of an assistance.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: It sounds like the Saudis have asked for help in terms of understanding troop deployments and maybe even asking for help on operational planning.
• 20:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Look, the Israelis, we know this, right?
• 20:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: They've been quietly holding hands with the Saudis under the table for quite some time.
• 20:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: um, Israelis are in Saudi Arabia.
• 20:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're meeting with Saudi officials, not in large numbers, but it's happening and we know this and normalization is a process and it's not an event.
• 21:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I gotta tell you something right now, this looks like an event, right?
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: This looks like a moment where normalization is coming out of the shadows.
• 21:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: My wrong here does it look like this could be a defining moment in the in the history of the Middle East where Israel and Saudi actually come together.
• 21:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I mean, if the Houthi threat persists and, you know, as you know, after October 7th sometime in November or December of 2023, the Houthi started attacking Israel, and Israel had not paid much attention to the Houthi's until then.
• 21:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: started building capability and intelligence, and I think, you know, they've been based in Somali land for quite some time listening and watching the Houthis.
• 21:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: So by now, we're talking three years.
• 21:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: These really would have a significant amount of information and capability and capacity when it comes to the Houthis.
• 21:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: And all of that is pure gold when it comes to Saudi Arabia
• 22:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: enemy.
• 22:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So as a houthi danger increases, which I expect it will.
• 22:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's natural for the Israelis and the Saudis to ban together because they face the same enemy.
• 22:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the Saudis ultimately are very pragmatic and practical people, and they're in the business of survival.
• 22:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: All the other stuff, the virtue of signaling that you hear from, you know, like the Malaysian case you talked about earlier and so on about Israel.
• 22:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: All of that is very easy to do from a distance.
• 22:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: But when you're very survival is at stake.
• 22:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, uh, which side your bread is buttered and, you know, the Israelis have stuff that the Saudis will want to need.
• 22:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I got to say, I think that Somali land is going to, you know, I know the Saudis were initially opposed to the recognition of Somali land that could change pretty quickly.
• 22:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think this question of recognizing Israel, that could change pretty quickly.
• 23:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, again, because survival, because of need, because of urgency, here, expediency, will, I think, dictate changes in policy.
• 23:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, I'm watching this pretty carefully right now, the wild twists and turns of
• 23:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: you can't make this stuff up.
• 23:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's just, you know, hold on buckle up and, you know, let's see where this thing goes.
• 23:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got one last question before I let you go.
• 23:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, there is this sort of bigger question of, you know, Saudis been buying a bunch of American platforms and weapons in munitions for many years now, right?
• 23:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Spending billions of dollars on American weapons.
• 23:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have their own capabilities.
• 23:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, I got to ask, I mean, can the Saudis do this themselves?
• 23:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, on the one hand, yeah, they've got the capability.
• 23:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, I don't think they have the personnel.
• 23:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think they have the professionalism.
• 23:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, it's just about practice.
• 23:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's about, you know, time in the air.
• 23:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's about time in tanks.
• 23:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: And all that stuff that professional militaries practice and practice again, you know, I remember when, you know, Joe Biden pulled the plug.
• 24:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: on the Saudi war against the Houthis.
• 24:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: This was back in 2021 in some ways for good reason.
• 24:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: In other ways, I think we are all regretting the fact that they're having it, because man, wouldn't it be nice if the Saudis had just finished a job back then, might have been messy, but it probably would have,
• 24:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: been for the better.
• 24:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: So can the Saudis resume what they were doing?
• 24:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: Can they do it professionally?
• 24:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Or was that just a failed experiment?
• 24:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: And they're chasing that they don't want to do this anymore, because they realize how bad they were at this?
• 24:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, try to unpack this for us.
• 24:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: No, I mean, look, inside the Saudi military, you have sort of what I would call islands of excellence.
• 24:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, their Air Force has gotten much, much better as a result of the war in Yemen.
• 24:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you see recently, not the attack on the Babel Mendeb and the coast, but inside Yemen, in Tais and in Mareb where the Houthis have been trying to advance, the Saudi Air Force actually has been able to block them and stop them.
• 25:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I think, you know, you have capability in the Air Force, you have special troops that are capable, but the military as a whole, no, it still needs a lot of work and would they be able to fight a land war against the Houthis and Wind?
• 25:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I doubt it very much, right?
• 25:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, maybe they need flip-flop!
• 25:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, what they need is a kind of hardness, a tough and toughness that you see on the houthy side, and you don't unfortunately see on the golf side.
• 25:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: I just wanted to say one, two other things, just very, very quickly.
• 25:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: One is that Russia is the biggest beneficiary of all this.
• 25:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: It wants chaos in this region.
• 25:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why it's helping.
• 25:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: the Houthis and the Iranians with targeting and their satellites apparently have now positioned over Saudi Arabia to help with the targeting.
• 26:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the Russians are huge beneficiaries of this and really ought to be taken to task for it.
• 26:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Chinese are sort of in two minds about it.
• 26:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: They want to see America weakened for sure, but they don't want to see all shipping disrupted because they depend on the oil and the gas from this region.
• 26:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: But still, the Chinese are not stepping
• 26:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: of a disruptor in this region.
• 26:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'll just say this, parting shot.
• 26:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm reminded of the, well, you know, a lot of these countries that we're talking about here have long memories.
• 26:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: And when you think about the Russians, and they're
• 26:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, abject to feet in Afghanistan when they pulled out in 1989.
• 26:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: This was the result of primarily Saudi efforts to push them out using using anti-fighters.
• 26:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is a little bit of revenge being a dish served cold.
• 26:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: You get a little bit of a sense that the Russians have a long memory here.
• 27:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Vladimir Putin was a young man in 1989, maybe he's thinking about that in the back of his head.
• 27:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: What do you think?
• 27:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I don't doubt that, but I think most important for someone like Putin is that Russian oil becomes extremely valuable as Saudi oil gets put off the market.
• 27:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, this is a huge boost for the Russian... Yeah.
• 27:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: For the Russian war chest, can't imagine a better scenario, right?
• 27:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
• 27:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, great analysis.
• 27:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bernard Heichel, I want to thank you very much for joining us again on the FTD Morning Brief.
• 27:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, pleasure.
• 27:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, time to pack this thing up, but we'll be back at it first thing on Friday.
• 27:45
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• 28:18
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• 28:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: The war grinds on and we're with you every step of the way.
• 28:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Jonathan Shanzer as always signing off for FDD.