Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Wild West | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/22/26

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Friday BEST BETS | Wild West | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/22/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks. The black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen poulette turned the dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby, look at me? No,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Nice now, hold on, hold on and.
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: Me for.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: That, but it'll get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Now, what's up? Everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports, Friday, May
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: twenty second, two and zero on the show yesterday. This
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: run is now ninety one, thirty eight and five over
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: forty eight days. I'm telling you it is unsustainable. We're
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: probably gonna go on three tonight. I'm gonna give out
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: three plays. They're all MLB totals. That's what I have tonight.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: Last night, easy winners on both We won with the
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: Montreal Canadians.
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: They won.
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: I mean they were winning four to one. Later in
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: the game they got a little bit outplayed. I'm fairly
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: certain that I'm gonna be looking to give out a
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: play zigzagging that thing on Carolina in Game two. A
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: couple of things I forgot to mention about that handicap. Well,
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: first of all, Montreal did win. They won six to two,
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: but they had at least one empty net goal at
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: the end. It got like kind of insane. Here, my
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: beard is out of control, man, it got that game
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: got a little bit out of control at the end.
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: But Carolina outshot Montreal in the game. Some of it
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: was because they were losing and you take a lot
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: of shots and desperation and whatever, but I think it
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: was a little bit of a misleading result.
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: Though Montreal won the game. We got it right.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: A couple of things I forgot to mention, though Montreal
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: swept the season series against them three to oh, which
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: I don't think I mentioned on this show. I mentioned
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: it on my Instagram video, so that was another thing
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: the factored in. Although I think Carolina actually outplayed them
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: in the most recent two regular season meetings, so I
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: think that was a little bit misleading. Like I don't
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: think Montreal, like I saw ESPN, is Montreal Carolina is kryptonite.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: They can't beat them. I don't think that's the case. Like,
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: I still think Carolina is probably gonna win the series.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: But you know, plus that was a spot play where
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: Carolina had way too much time off.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: So we did get that one right.
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: The other things I forgot to mention, Carolina has been
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: awful in the conference final series, so it's not definitive
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: they are going to win it. They had lost six
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: conference Final game ones in a row. Now it's seven,
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: so I forgot to mention that I got the record wrong.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: By the way, Montreal was actually six and two on
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: the road in the playoffs. Now there's seven and two
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: on the road in the playoffs, so I got that
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: a little bit wrong. I mentioned on my Instagram video
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: Carolina had scored more than They've scored more than three
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: goals in the playoffs only one time, so this Carolina
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: team is not putting up a lot of offense. And
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: the most they scored was four and they only did
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: that once, so that's a little bit of a crazy
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: stat as well.
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: Good for playing an underdog against them.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: Even though I'm thinking of giving out Carolina in the
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: next game tomorrow, I don't know if I'm going to,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: but I'm gonna figure it out and there was one
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: other thing. Oh yeah, there was one other stat with Carolina.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: I think Carolina, I'm I think they've now lost ten
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: home games in a row in the conference finals as well.
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: I think that's what the stat was.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: So a lot of it was because they can't beat
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: the Florida Panthers and they had to play them I
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: think the last two conference finals series they were in.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: But still that's not good. Carolina has been awful in
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: this round of the playoffs. But again they get a
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: better matchup.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: This time.
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: They're playing a team that's worse than they are, a
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: team that has way less experience.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: They're going up against a rookie goalie.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: I don't want to spend this much time talking about
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: that one matchup, but still I'm just mad I forgot
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: to mention some of those other stats yesterday, because that's
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: all crazy. That made that handicap even stronger, I suppose.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: And then we won on the New York Knicks. I
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: don't really have a lot to say about that. I
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: think my handicap was correct on the side there. I mean,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: they pulled away easily, won easily in the second half.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: The only thing was I thought the game was going
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: to be higher scoring. It was a lot lower scoring
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: than I expected, but some of it I think was
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: because the Knicks had pretty much an insurmountable lead, and
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: then when that kind of when that happens, the team
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: kind of slows the game down a bit. Although the
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: Knicks have had such offensive explosions during the playoffs, I
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: was kind of thinking that was gonna be one of
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: those games, but they still covered anyway, Tyson, what's up?
• 5:47
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the goal every day is just to win,
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: not necessarily to sweep.
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: We're gonna try to go too and one.
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: Today with these baseball totals, we have an after noon
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: baseball game because it's Wriggly Field, Houston at Chicago.
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: This is on Apple TV.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: This is you know, Wriggly has a lot of afternoon
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: baseball because it's historic. Wriggly I think was like the
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: last stadium to add lights, so they were always playing
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: daytime games even into like the the eighties and nineties.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: The Cubs are clearly the better team here, but I
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: don't know necessarily about this matchup here. Cubs have lost
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: five straight games. They just got swept at home by Milwaukee.
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: The Cubs are definitely better than this. The Milwaukee is
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: a good team. You gotta think the Cubs should be
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: in bounced back mode at some point. Both these teams
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: had yesterday off, by the way, so both teams aren't rested,
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: which when I talk about rest I talk about unders
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: typically because I think the offenses might go out of
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: rhythm a little bit with a day off, and the
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: bullpens are rested.
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: At least Houston is coming off. What did I just do?
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: I think it is too many tabs, though maybe I didn't.
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: Houston just I believe they just lost to Minnesota in
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: that series. Houston's got a really bad bullpen. They're worst
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: in baseball, even though they are resting. Cubs have a
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: much better bullpen at eighth. Cubs have the better offense
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: Fifth.
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: Houston has fallen off offensively a bit to their tenth now,
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: so the Cubs are the better team all around. I
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: think it's kind of a matter of what about the
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup.
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: Spencer Arraghetty is pitching for Houston.
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: He's been their.
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: Most reliable starter.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: He's got good numbers one point five ERA, one point
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: one to nine WHIP. He's been a bit worse on
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: the road, but two point three ERA is not exactly bad.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: He's been good in that he hasn't allowed more than
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: two hour runs in any start. He's allowed one or
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: fewer in all but one start. Houston's won five of
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: his six outings. The problem is is walk number is
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: really really high. So I think he's getting a little
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: bit lucky here, like I think it's ERA should be
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: probably in the mid threes. He's allowed very few hits,
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: so that's good, but his walk number is crazy. He's
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: walking more than one guy every two winnings. That's that
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: is bad. And his strike out rate is fine, it's
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: almost one per inning, so that's all good. But even
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: if you look at this month, fourteen to twelve strike
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio, three or more walks in every outing. Yeah,
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: he's been pretty unhittable, but you cannot issue that many
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: free passes and continue to get away with it. You know,
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: and the Cubs are a good lineup. He's got bad
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: numbers against them as well. Seventeen at bats not a
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: big sample though, two ninety four average allowed eight thirty
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: nine ohps five to two strike out walk ratiom So
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I love Arraghetti here. He's going
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: up against Jameson tye On, who has been decent. He's
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: got a four point nine to seventy RRA, which doesn't
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: look that good. One point two whip is not bad,
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: though I think his ERA should probably be lower than
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: it is. He's been good at home three point sixty
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: three homey RA, significantly better than on the road.
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: His numbers are being skewed a bit.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: His last outing, he gave up five home runs at
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: the White Sox.
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: That was really bad.
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: The question that needs to be answered is was that
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: a fluke or is he out of form right now?
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. I mean, his prior to starts
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: were both fine. He allowed two or fewer earned runs there.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: He's allowed more than three earned runs only three times
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: this season. His numbers overall are fine because he's allowed
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: fewer than one hit per ending. His strikeout rate is
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: a little bit low. He's not really a huge strikeout pitcher.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is a little bit high, but it's
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: not that bad overall. I don't really I don't think
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: his numbers are bad. His numbers gets Houston, though. That's
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: where we run into a problem.
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: Houston.
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: We have a problem. Fifty three at bats against the
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: three forty batting average, allowed nine to thirty oh ps.
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: That's obviously not good four to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: So situation I think favors of the Cubs here, and
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: the Cubs are mostly the better team here, but the
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup looks like it does kind of slightly
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: indicating the Houston direction here. If you're gonna go Houston
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: with this, I think you gotta go first five only
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: because you do not want their bullpen. As far as
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: the numbers here, Houston is getting the money fifty four tickets,
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: seventy one percent of the cash. I don't want to
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: do that either. The Cubs are about minus one forty
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: or so. I think they are in a bounced back
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: spot at the very least, and they do have the
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: better offense and bullpen here, and the starting pitching matchup
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: I think you can at least debate it a little bit.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: Houston probably does have a slight edge there. I'm not
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: gonna play the game. The totals at seven, which probably
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: means Wind is blowing in a bit and regularly. I
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: would imagine money coming in towards the under. I would
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: not want.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: To do that.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: Both starting pitchers don't have good matchup numbers here, so
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: at Houston's bullpen is really bad. So I think there
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: are more indicators towards an over in this game.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: But when the total is that low, it's that low
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: for a reason.
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: So sob what's up four and one the last two days? Yeah,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: but that loser was on a two run home run
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: in the bottom of the fifth and that full game
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: went under. It was bullshit. That should have been a
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: win too. Yeah, there's no way it's gonna be a
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: ten zero run man. I'm on a thirty seven and
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: seven run right now, by the way, though, thirty seven
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: to seven and one, and I believe the more recent
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: run here is I'm gonna figure it out right now
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: because based on my old banners that I have in here,
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: I'm also on a sixteen and two run recently as well.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: But yeah, obviously that's not good enough. But it can
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: only get worse. Man, There's there's gonna be a regression.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is totally un Stay in the boy.
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: This is probably the hottest that I've ever been. I've
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: had some hot runs, but this is insane, all right,
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: Cleveland at Philadelphia, we get into the evening baseball. I
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: want to get through these games. Man, this is a
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: game I was thinking about it. Philadelphia is staying at home,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: they didn't play yesterday, and they lost their last two
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: games to a Cincinnati Reds team that's not very good.
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: So I think it's a bounce back spot for the
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: Phillies here. I mean, that is pretty ugly. You can
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: kind of make sense of them losing those games. I
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: actually gave a play on the first five out on
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: the show in that first loss of Philadelphia's because.
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: They were going up against Chase Burns.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: Then I think because they lost their win streak, maybe
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: that carried over to the next game. But now I
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: think it probably ends. I think Philadelphia is gonna win
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: this game here. They break the losing streak. They're staying
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: at home. They had yesterday off and Cleveland did not.
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: Cleveland had to play yesterday and they got a division
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: sweep over Detroit and that was after beating Cincinnati. So
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: I think people are gonna look at this and see
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: how hot Cleveland is, and I think they might come
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: into this game and might want to jump on Cleveland
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: here because of how hot they've been. But we know Detroit.
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, Detroit just looks like they are just I
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: don't know. They're in a really, really bad mental state
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: right now. I don't think Cleveland is as good as
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: they might look here. I think Philadelphia is the better
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: team here, and I think they have the better starting
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: pitcher on them out here. Cleveland has a bullpen disadvantage
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: because they use a bunch of relief pitchers. Yesterday they
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: use five relief pitchers while Philadelphia didn't even play, So
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: that's gonna be a major advantage to Philadelphia here. I
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: think Cleveland their bullpen is okay, They're at eleventh. Philly
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: is a little bit worse than that at fifteenth. But
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: I think Philly does have a little bit of a
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: bullpen at here, maybe more than a little bit because
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: of the rest hitting wise, Cleveland's fifteenth. Philadelphia is twenty second, though,
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: but I think you could definitely make the argument Philly
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: has the better bats in their lineup. Gavin Williams is
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: pitching for Cleveland, though, so even though I like Philly here,
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: I don't necessarily know if I want to fade Williams here.
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: Williams is possibly Cleveland's uh probably he's their second best.
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: Pitcher behind Messek.
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point six to seventy RA one
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: point one to nine whip. He's not as good on
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: the road though, four point nine to seven Roady Ray,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: so his home road splits are against him here. He
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: had a nice bounce back start against Cincinnati after he
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: had two rough outings. He pitched well against Cincinnati last
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: time out. He's still pitching well this month, though, at
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: least with his command numbers twenty to three strike out
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, but he's been way too hittable, so I
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: think Williams changed something because his walk number was too
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: high before and he was pretty unhittable. But over the
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: last month he's been too hittable and his walk rate
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: has been way better, so I think he started putting
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: too many pitches over the plate. He needs to find
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: some happy medium here. His number overall in the season
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: I do like. Though he's got a really high strikeout
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: rate well over one per inning, his hit rate is
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: still well below one per inning.
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: Walk rate is not that bad either.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: Overall, I do think Williams is pretty good, but maybe
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: you worry about his current form slightly because numbers gets
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: Philly are pretty good in twenty nine at bats two
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: forty one average, six ninety nine ohps eight seven strikeout
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is not great. You know, I do think
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia does have a starting pitching edge still, But if
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: I wanted to play Philadelphia at this number, they're like
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: a pretty big favor here, I think I would want
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: maybe a little bit better of a starting pitching matchup
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: for them here. Christopher Sanchez is pitching for Philly, though,
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: and he's definitely having a good season. One point eight
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: two ERA one point two whip indicates his ERA should
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: probably be higher than that, but he's been good. He's
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: been really good at home one ERA, so the home
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: road splits set up in his favor. He is coming
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: off a complete game shutout, though, so maybe you do
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: have to worry about that a little bit. It was
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: the most pitches he's thrown in any outing this year,
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: one hundred and eight. It was against Pittsburgh, who are
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: a good offense. That's a good sign that he did
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: that in Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh they tend to hit well
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: at home, so that was a good outing. And in fact,
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: he's thrown three shutouts this month. He's allowed no runs
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: this month, He's gone at least seven innings in every outing,
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: and he has a thirty to one strikeout walk.
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: Ratio this month.
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: One of those starts is against the Rockies, though, and
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: they have not been hitting well. And that was in Philly,
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: and he did also do it to the A's but
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: not in the A's stadium. But yeah, he's obviously pitching
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: really well right now. It's just kind of a matter
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: of was that too many pitches? He threw over one
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: hundred pitches in each of his last two outings. His
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: numbers over the season are pretty crazy. He has one
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: of the highest strikeout rates on top of a really
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: high ground ball rate too. That's really really good. He's
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: not as unhittable as you would think. He's allowed almost
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: one hit per inning, but his walk rate is also
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: pretty low. So yeah, overall, he's he's basically a cy
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: young contender he's going up against, So I, dude, I
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: start looking at the picture and then I forget who
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: the fucking opponent even is. Who's the opponent Cleveland? Yeah,
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: he has good numbers against Cleveland and twenty four at bats,
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: two to eight batting average, four to seventy eight ops.
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: Really really good, but only three strikeouts, two walks. I obviously,
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: like I said, I lean Philly in this game. It's
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: just a matter of the price that's on Philly, and
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know if they have enough of an edge
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: in the starting pitching matchup here. Even though I think
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: they have that edge, they have the rest advantage, which
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: should swing the bullpen in their direction.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: So I like Philly. Here, where's the.
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: Let me see, it's got to be in the Come
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: on man, there it is, dude, What the fuck?
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: Oh my god, it just refreshed. Yeah, that's great.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: The money is coming in on Philadelphia for what that's
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: worth sixty percent of tickets, seventy percent of the cash
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: on them.
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: Pretty pricey though, at around minus one point eighty.
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna play Philly, I think you do it
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: full game, and you do it. You know minus one
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: and a half run line, Well you split bet it
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: minus one and a half on the run line and
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: the rest of it on the money line. But again
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: the problem is, I think Williams is good enough that
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: he can actually potentially duel in this matchup. So that's
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: what I worry about there. But yeah, I definitely lean Philly, though,
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I am
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: not playing the Avs tonight. My picks saved your day.
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: Don't listen to me on baseball. All of those overs
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: were not even close, so obviously we're gonna have a
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: bunch of baseball totals today, although my actual total plays
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: have done well.
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: Josh, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: The Valkyries, Yeah, that was that was correct. I think
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: I had a lean on them yesterday, right, maybe, dude.
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: My best WNBA lean yesterday was Minnesota. They won easily
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: as well. That was an easy cover. The Valkyries are
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: a good team. Mister Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I had my one recommendation yesterday, even though
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: I didn't put it on my card. My favorite play
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: was Minnesota in the w NBA yesterday. They won by
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: almost thirty, so yeah, they covered the four and a
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: half or whatever. Saint Louis at Cincinnati. This is gonna
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: be one of my plays, dude, I need to go
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: faster here, man, this I don't want this. I fucking
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: hate this. Like the show takes two fucking hours every day.
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: I should enjoy it, but it fucking tires me out.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: Baseball is the most annoying sport to do on the show.
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: Just you know, there's just way too much that I
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: have to talk about because everything else, I just do
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: situations and it's way easier.
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: We're going over in Saint Louis and Cincinnati.
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: If that if you couldn't figure that out already, both
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: teams played yesterday. Saint Louis I was at home against Pittsburgh,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: so they're not rested.
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: That means they used bullpen arms yesterday.
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati did not, but their bullpen is still pretty fatable
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: here Cincinnati, I don't even know what situation they're in here.
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: They're turning over from a road trip.
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: I think they could be in a letdown spot actually,
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: because they did beat Philadelphia the last two times they
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: played Philadelphia, which normally when a team returns home from
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: a road trip. I do think that their offense can
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: kind of be distracted and their offense could be affected negatively.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: And it does mean Cincinnati's bullpen is rested. But I'm
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: gonna fade them anyway here. Cincinnati, even though yes they
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: do have a arrested bullpen, they're not a good bullpen
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis did use four relief pitchers yesterday. They're also
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: not a good bullpen, so we have one unrested bullpen
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: and Saint Louis they are twenty third in bullpen and
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: this is arranged by whip and then what are we
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: talking about? The Reds are twenty eighth, so we're looking
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: at two bullpens that could definitely get knocked around here.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis has been pretty good offensively twelve. The Reds
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: are all the way up to fourteenth, So the Reds
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: are hitting better. Again, We're in a hitter friendly ballpark here,
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: and this starting pitching matchup looks like a disaster to me.
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: Kyle Lay he is pitching for the Cardinals. Oh but
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: he has a three point ninety four ERA.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: That's good.
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but his whip is one point five to five.
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: That's not good. He's also worse on the road four
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: point twenty six road ERA. Saint Louis is a much
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: more pitcher friendly ballpark than Cincinnati is.
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: And yeah, I know Lay.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: He's given up no more than one earn run in
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: any of his outings this month, but two.
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: Of them are at home, one of them was on
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: the road. Against San Diego.
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: They haven't hit well at all, and that's a pitcher
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark. And he has a twelve nine strikeout walk
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: ratio this month. I mean, come on, man, that is
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: not good. So his walk rate is bad. His strikeout
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: rate over the course of the season is well below
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: one per inning. His walk rate is high, almost one
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: walk every two winnings. He's allowed more than one hit
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: per inning by a pretty significant margin.
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: This is not good stuff.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: He is facing Cincinnati here, and Cincinnati has good numbers
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: against him. It's not a huge sample twenty three at bats,
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: although basically their entire lineup is faced before three zero
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: four batting average eight forty two OPS four to one
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio. But yeah, those are pretty good
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: hitting numbers against him. So I think he's fatable and
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: we're also gonna fade Chris Paddock on the other side here,
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: who is not good. Uh seven point h seventy RA,
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: one point sixty three whip and most of that was
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: with Miami. He was sucking it up for Miami so
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: bad he designated him for assignment. The Reds picked him up,
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: and going from Miami, a picture friendly state, to the
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: Reds a hitter friendly stadium. Good luck with that, sir,
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: Including dude, this is mostly when he was on Miami.
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: His homera was fifteen point eight eight this year. Like,
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: you have to be kidding me. That does not bode
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: well for him. He's made one start. I know it
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: doesn't show it correctly here, but he made one start
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: with the Red so far, and he was okay in
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: that start against Cleveland, but that was more of a
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: pitcher friendly environment. Cleveland plays a lot of low scoring
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: games at home. He did okay, he went five innings
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: to give up to hour and runs. Sure, fine, But
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: his start before that he got blasted by Philadelphia. This
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: is gonna be his first home start with Cincinnati. Yeah,
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: maybe he'll get up for the game, I guess, But
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: I just I'm not sure that I really see the
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: argument for that here. Man, it's gonna be a an
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: unfriendly stadium to pitchers. He's been bad as a home
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: pitcher this year. His numbers against Saint Louis don't help
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: the matter. Twenty three at bats not a huge sample,
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: but they've basically all faced them before three forty eight
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: batting average allowed nine to eighty four ohps, seven to
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: one strike out walk ratio is good, but the rest
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: of these numbers are not over. The total is where
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: we're going with this one. Uh, the money is indicating
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: in that direction.
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: It looks like we.
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: Have seventy nine percent of the tickets on the under
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: in this game.
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: That makes no sense to me.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: Fifty two percent of the cash on the under. So
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: if you want to take these numbers for what they say,
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: money is coming in towards the over, the totals nine
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: and a half. Like I said, you're not gonna get
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: a nine on this, I don't think, But I mean,
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: I guess maybe if you can find a nine, obviously
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: that's better, but you might have to pay a decent
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: amount for it. So it was nine and a half's
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: across the board for what I saw. Though, we'll do
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: it even though we have to pay, you know, we
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: have to get over that hook there. But I think
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: we can get there. I think it's gonna be a
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: high scoring game.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis has seventy three percent of the tickets on them,
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: sixty two percent of the CA Cincinnati at about a
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty price. The money actually back in Chris
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: Paddock seems crazy to me, although maybe that's an indicator
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: that maybe the better'st thing lay he is overrated because
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: his era looks way better than he actually is. So
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: maybe that's what's going on there. Over is the play
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: in that game?
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: All right? I hate it, but you love it? All right?
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: Well, well thank you. That's why I am selective. Man,
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: Like these leans that I have, I don't even know
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: how strong I feel about some of these I do.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: I do not like spring the board like that. I
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: think you're I don't know, you're just asking for punishment.
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: Is it raining in Cincinnati? I mean, I don't. I
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: don't know.
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: I don't really factor in rain in those things. Either
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: the game is gonna be played or it isn't. I
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: mean the rain might might might make the fielders slip
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: and whatever.
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: The rain might help the pitching a little bit, but
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Let me see what the what does
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: the weather look like in that game? Maybe it gets
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: rained out and then we just get a no play
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: on it. But I like the over Let me see. Yeah,
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: you're right, sixty six and raining. I mean, I think
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: if the weather is good enough to actually play, then
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: I don't think that means the rain's not gonna have
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: that much of an effect. Like they don't play in
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: rain in baseball, Like they're so pussified now, Like they
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: won't even play if there's like a thunderstorm in the vicinity,
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. They won't even play football
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: now when that's the case. So yeah, I don't think
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: it's a factor. I think if the game gets played,
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: it means it's not raining. So the Vlad Guerrero prop, yeah,
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: I mean that one looked good to me. I don't know.
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: I don't do much with props. Tampa Bay at the
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: Yankee is one of the biggest of the weekend because
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: these are the teams with the top two records in
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: the American League, although as the oddsmakers are telling you,
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: the Yankees are the better team here. The Yankees played yesterday,
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: so they're not rested, but they are staying at home.
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: They lost to Toronto.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: The Yankees hitting really kind of fell off in those
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: last two games, but they did have to face yes
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: Savage and one of them. But yesterday they couldn't get
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: anything going against Toronto bullpen game. I don't know what
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: that was.
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: Maybe the Yankees were just looking ahead.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: I have no idea. Sorry, not Toronto. I want to
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: look at the Yankees here. Yankees use three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: not really a big deal. Their better relievers are available here,
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: but they aren't facing a rested Tampa Bay team. Tampa
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: Bay did not play yesterday, so Tampa does have a
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: rest advantage coming into this game. Tampa is coming out
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: of a sweep of Baltimore, but they're not going to
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: overlook the Yankees. Man, this is a big series for
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: both teams. As far as the bullpens are concerned. Yankees
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: are ninth in bullpen. They're bullpen's actually been pretty good,
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: Tampa fourteenth. Their bullpen has been a real roller coaster.
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: I mean, their era is not good though it's almost
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: it's like mid mid fours.
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: That's not very good.
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: Although they're ranked fourteenth yere but Tampa Bay, their bullpen
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: keeps going up and down all over the standings here. Offensively,
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: the Yankees are ranked third, Tampa Bay seventh. So we
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: have two pretty capable offenses, but I think we also
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: have pitchers that are capable of shutting the offenses down potentially.
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Nick Martinez is pitching for the Rays. He's been like
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: shockingly good in his first season with them here even
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: though he's thirty five two old men pitching in this
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: game today one point five to one ERA, one point
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: zero four WHIP. Those numbers are not sustainable, but he
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: has pitched well. He's been a little bit worse on
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: the road. One point eight e RA is still obviously
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: not bad numbers this month. He's allowed no more than
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: one on run in any.
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: Of the outings.
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: That's good, but he did face some we offenses here Toronto, Boston, Miami.
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: He did face the Yankees once earlier this year and
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: he did not make it five innings, but he did
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: hold him to one or and run and Tampa wound
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: up winning the game in extra innings, so he wasn't
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: horrible in that outing, but he did walk too many
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: guys this month. He has an eleven to two strike
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio, which is pretty good.
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: His strike out rate is low.
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really strike out a lot of guys, but
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: his walk rate this season is low.
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: Hasn't allowed a lot of hits either, well below.
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: One per inning, so he's been effective despite not striking
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: a lot of guys out. Has decent numbers against the
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: Yankees in his career as well. In seventy at bats,
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: two forty three average allowed, seven twenty three ops sixteen
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: to ten strike out walk ratio is not good, though,
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: but Goldschmidt has.
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: Four of those walks.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: Martinez could pitch well here, he's gonna have to go
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: up against Garrett Cole, who is returning for the Yankees
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: after not having pitched in the majors since twenty twenty four,
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: or he's just always hurt MANA.
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: We're gonna see what he can do.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: Obviously, the question is, yeah, you have to figure out, like,
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: at what point is he gonna be back in form
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: that's if ever form that's close enough to what he
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: has been in the past. He's never been bad though,
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, you know, he's he's been like a cy
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: Young caliber pitcher basically throughout his entire career. So he
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: doesn't have any really any point in his career where
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: he was not good. So if he's gonna pitch, he's
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: probably gonna be good. But we don't really know. Again,
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's had this much of a layoff
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: during his entire career though, right like missing more than
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: an entire season with an injury. He's a veteran though,
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: so he might be able to do it, come back
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: and pitch well, but we don't really know. So I'm
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: gonna you know, I'm staying away from this game, but
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: I would generally lean towards him pitching well here, but
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: we don't really know. H Timpa Bay has ninety five
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: at bats against him, but it's only four hitters of
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: and that's pretty insane. So it's just the long timers
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: have seen him a ton and the rest of the
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: guys haven't seen him at all. That's that's pretty crazy, man,
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: to have a disparity like that, because you have an
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: older pitcher that's been out of the.
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: League for a little while.
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay has guys that have seen him fifty plus
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: times Diaz has, and then they have other guys that
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: have never seen him before. Overall, he's selling them to
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: a two sixty three average, seven three ops, twenty two strikeouts,
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: seven walks. Those numbers are fine. Cole I looked at
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: what he did in the minors, and he actually was
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: he actually got better, Like he actually had his worst
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: minor league rehab stint in single A. Like he started
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: out in Single A. He was really really shaky, went
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: up to Double A, pitched a little bit better, and
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: then his best outing was at the Triple A level,
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: and now they're bringing them. I think he only made
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: one or two starts at Triple A. Now they're bringing
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: him up. I mean, he's Cole, so you know, I mean,
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: you know what he's able to do in the Major,
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: So you don't really to prolong his rehab, right, like,
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: you just need to make sure that he's good.
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: But he was fine.
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: Like I think he had like five something innings at
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: Trebla this year and he gave up one ear and
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: run I'm pretty sure something like that. But he did
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: a lot more hits than in his pitch, so if
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: you're concerned about that, I think he only had like
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: one walk though, and a few strikeouts.
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: But I think he'll do well.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: This game kind of reads to me as an under.
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know if we could trust Tampa Bay's bullpend though,
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: but the money looks like it's disagreeing on the under. Like,
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: is the public really coming in and playing an under here?
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: You almost always get them playing overs in Yankee games, obviously,
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: but just because of Garrett Cole, do you really think
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: they're coming back and playing an under. I think usually
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: the public is kind of hesitant to want to play
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: on a pitcher that's coming back from a long absence
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: like this, So I don't know. Ninety one percent of
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on the under,
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: so the money seems to be indicating towards the over.
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: I think if you go under a first five inning,
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: might make more sense to just go with the starting
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: pitching to pitch well here, but I think it's a
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: bit of a risk. I'm not doing it, but I
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: don't really trust Tampa Bay's bullpen either. The money is
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: indicating towards the Yankees as well. I think Tampa Bay's
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: record is better than the Yankees right now, but they're
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: clearly not the better team.
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are minus one.
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: Fifty five here, so obviously the oddsmakers are telling you
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: the Yankees are the better team. It's not just the
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup here. In fact, Garrett Cole might be
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: getting a little bit undervalued in the market because he
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: hasn't pitched in over a year. Fifty six percent of
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: tickets on Tampa, fifty three percent of the cash on Tampa,
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: so the money's indicating towards the Yankees. But again, Tampa
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: does have a rest advantage here, you know. I mean,
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: I don't want to handicapping the side in this game
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: is really really difficult. First five under is my lean there,
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: but I don't have a strong opinion on that. Pittsburgh
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: at Toronto. Toronto could be in a letdown spot. They're
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: in a bad spot here Toronto. They're returning home from
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: playing in Detroit and then in New York, which I
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: know that's not a huge travel situation there, but they're
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: still they've been gone for more than a week in
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: the returning home which is still bad.
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: And they just beat the Yankees twice.
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: So it could be a letdown spot because that was
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: a big series, you know, So when a team's coming
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: off a big series, they might overlook.
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: Their next opponent.
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: They might just be feeling high on themselves after being
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: in the Yankees. The return home spot tends to be
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: a distraction because you have to get back to family
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: life you've been away for a while. So Toronto is
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: not really in a good spot here. Pittsburgh did just
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: win their last two games against Saint Louis. I know
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: it was a divisional series that Saint Louis has a
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: good record. I'm not sure that Pittsburgh is gonna overlook
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: Toronto here because Pittsburgh was playing pretty poor baseball before
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: those two games, so they got back on track. They
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: have a little bit of momentum here.
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: At the very least.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: I think the situation definitely favores Pittsburgh here. The problem
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: is do you want them in the starting pitching matchup?
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: And I don't think I do. As far as the bullpens,
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh played yesterday in Saint Louis, so both teams played yesterday.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh used two relief pitchers. Toronto used four. So Pittsburgh
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: may have a little bit of a bullpen edg year,
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: but their bullpen's not that good. They're at nineteenth, Toronto
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: is ranked thirteenth, but their eras are pretty similar, so
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: I think it's a little bit of a wash with
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: the bullpens. Pittsburgh has the better offense. They're tied at
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: seventh and Toronto is where are they twenty seventh? God,
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: Toronto's offense really not doing well here, Bubba Chan, there
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Pittsburgh.
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's got to figure something out.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: He's got enough talent that he could definitely be really good,
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: but hasn't really happened this year. Five point one four Era,
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: one point five to two whip. It kind of sucks
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: because it looked like he was about to take that
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: next step, like he started pitching really well at the
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: end of last year, but his numbers this year are
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: pretty bad. He's a little bit better on the road
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: four point nine to four Roadra didn't do well in
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: his last outing against Philly. He only lasted three innings, he.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: Had four walks.
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: His walk rate this month has been really really concerning
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: nine strike outs, eleven walks five point five four Arra
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: as well, that's not good.
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: If he gets that under control, he could be a
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: good pitcher.
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: His walk number is alarmingly high, dude, like the rest
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: of his numbers, Like his hit number is fine, he's
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: allowed way below one hit per inning. His strike out
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: rate is lower than you'd want to see. Like I
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: thought he was more of a strikeout pitcher than this.
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: So that's not good that his strike out rates a
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: bit lower than one per inning when he should be
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: more of a strikeout guy. But his walk number is
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: obviously the huge problem. Like he's walking his number one
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: walks is like seventy five percent of the number of
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: innings pitch.
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: That is horrible.
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: That means he's he's walking three guys every four innings.
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: You cannot do that, man. It's he has one of
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: the highest walk rates in baseball. So I just don't
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: see how we could trust him here. Although Toronto's never
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: faced before, so he has that advantage that I talk
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: about when a young talented pitcher goes up against a
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: lineup that hasn't faced them before and a lineup that
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: hasn't really done that well.
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: This year, the pitcher does have a little bit of
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: an edge there.
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: But he's also gonna have to go up against Kevin Goussman,
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: who's obviously been the better pitcher this year. I mean,
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: it's no question. Three point four to five RRA one
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: point zero five whip. Goussman is exactly the same RA.
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: Home and away as well.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: He bounced back nicely after he had a rough start
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: against Tampa Bay, which he had to face Tampa Bay
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: two times in a row. Bounce back really nicely with
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: a shutout at Detroit for six innings last time out.
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: He's got a thirteen to one strike out walk race
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: here this month. His command looks like it's on point
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: right now, although the strikeout rates a little low.
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: He's allowed too many hits.
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: But like all of them came in that one Tampa
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: Bay outing, So I think you may give him a
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: pass for that. I mean, you look at his numbers
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: this season, really really good, below one hit per inning
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: by quite a bit, almost one strike up or inting
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: at a very low walk rate. Yeah, I mean, he's
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: obviously solid. How does he match up against Pittsburgh Not
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: as well as you might think. He's got thirty seven
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: at bats against them, two seventy batting average allowed, seven
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: eighty four oh ps ten to three strike out walk
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: ratio is fine, but his numbers are a little bit questionable. So,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, I see the argument for Pittsburgh here. Man,
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: it's a bad spot for Toronto. I don't even necessarily
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: disagree with the Pittsburgh side. Here. Toronto's laying like minus
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: one sixty five or so. You could get Pittsburgh split
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: the bet, you know, partially on the run line, partially
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: on the money line. The money's indicating that way. I
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: don't disagree with it. Like the situation, I think, yeah,
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: is definitely against Toronto. Here, but I work like you
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: have to rely on Chan they're actually somehow regaining his
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: form here. That's a pretty big risk in my opinion,
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: so I have to stay away from it.
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: But I definitely see the argument.
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: Also, you know, you could make the argument that that
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: will happen because you do have Chandler, or that Chandler
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: might have an upper hand in this matchup because he does.
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: He is unfamiliar to Toronto and Gaussman doesn't have the
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: best numbers against Pittsburgh. So there are arguments for it.
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: And in fact, I do lean that way. Pittsburgh, like
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: make your own plus one run line, But I'm not
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: gonna do it. This next game up will be one
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: of my plays, and I know I'm gonna get fucked
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: on this based on which way I decided to go.
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: Because I was thinking I wanted to go first five
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: inning on this, and then I decided to I was like, no,
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: I'm actually gonna go full game on this. You know
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: we're gonna get fucked by going full game on this.
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: That's just the way that it is. This is my
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: Minnesota versus my Boston Red Sox. We're gonna go under
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: seven and a half in this game. I found it
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: a minus one five out there, and the price seems
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: right to me. It was I was weighing that versus
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: first five inning under three and a half at at
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: even money, which I would not disagree if you wanted
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: to go first five innings under three and a half,
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: but I like to try to get a four. I
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: really really don't like Minnesota's bullpen, but I decided there
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: were a few things that we're still in favor of this,
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: so we're gonna go full game on this. You get
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: under the key number, though, you get the hook on
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: the seven and a half, So I like that, even
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: though I know you have to worry about Boston being
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: a hitter friendly ballpark, but maybe that'll be you know,
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: that risk might be lowered a little bit by the
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: fact that it's gonna be fifty eight up here after
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: it was ninety earlier this week. Up here, it's gonna
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: be cool, which can help unders. We also have, I mean,
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox offense has been so bad that that
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: might help. So you have Minnesota's really really bad bullpen,
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: but the Red Sox offense has been so bad that
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: maybe that kind of helps Minnesota's bullpen enough. But then
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: you all also have a really good bullpen with the
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, and both bullpens are rested, so that's why
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: I decided to do this. Neither team played yesterday, so
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: I think again, when both teams are off the prior day,
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: I do like to look for unders because I think
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: the offenses can be a little bit colder after not playing,
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: and I think the obviously there's bullpen rest, so the
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: bullpens both teams can use whatever bullpen arms they want here,
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: so I think that's good. But also we need to
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: start a pitching matchup to be good here, and I
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: think it is, which we're gonna.
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: Talk about in a minute.
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's offense has been a little bit better though, so
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: on the offensive side, I thinks the Red Sox are
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: still really struggling. They've moved up a little bit, They're
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: at twenty six, but still I think that helps Minnesota's
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: bullpen at least that they're facing a weak Red Sox lineup.
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: Although I know the Red Sox versus Minnesota when they
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: played in Minnesota, that was a high scoring series. I know,
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: but Minnesota, I mean, I don't know. They're twelfth in offense,
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: but I don't think their offense is really that good,
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: and I think the Red Sox pitching can kind of
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: just counter that. Red Sox bullpen has been very good.
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: They're at third right now, and they're era is. They're
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: one of only two teams of the bullpen the ra
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: below three. It's just them in Texas. So the Red
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: Sox are a high level bullpen for sure. Minnesota is
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: not at all. Obviously, they're twenty seventh, very very concerning.
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: I know, they're like the third or fourth worst bullpen,
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: very very alarming, which is why I was strongly considering
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: taking them out of the equation and making it a
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: first five. But I decided to go full game on this.
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: And you know that means Minnesota's gonna give up. They're
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: gonna give up like a four run inning or something.
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: The whole here, though, is that the Red Sox are
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: gonna be winning late in the game, and the Red
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: Sox don't even bat in the ninth inning, you know
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: what I mean. That would help us out quite a
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: bit if we can get Minnesota's bullpen out of the game,
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: you know, an inning or earlier, that that would help
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: us too.
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: So that is a possibility here.
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox lost two out of three, by the way,
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: when they played atman so earlier. This year, Red Sox
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: might be more focused for that reason and maybe in
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: a bit of a bounce back, but maybe not because
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox are also returning on from a road trip,
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: so you know, I have to mention that because that's
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: a negative spot. The Red Sox had a pretty successful
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: road trip. They went four and two on the road
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: trip because they swept Kansas City to finish it, but
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: they did not play a lot of high scoring games.
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox has still played a ton of under
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: types of games, man, I mean, in recent games. In
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: that Kansas City game, they only had one game where
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: there were more than seven runs going into that Atlanta game.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: You remember, I gave unders out in two of those
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: games against Atlanta, both games hit. The Red Sox are
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: just trending way way under and the under trend is
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: still somewhat continuing. I mean, they had one game where
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: they allowed a lot of runs against Atlanta, but that
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: was Brian Bao pitching, so I don't think that's indicative
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: of what the rest of the Red Sox pitching is.
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: And then the Red Sox did have one offensive burst
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: against Kansas City. But even so, that's still a little
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: bit out of the ordinary for the Red Sox. They
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: do play a lot of under style games here in Minnesota.
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: Doesn't really but yeah, I mean, I think this game
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: reads under to me.
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox. The facty're returning home from a road trip.
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: I think it is a negative spot for the Red Sox,
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: which I know is kind of bad here because we're
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: hoping that the Red Sox are winning late in the
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: game so they don't have to bat in the ninth inning,
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: which is still gonna be a possibility here. I still
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: like the under though, you know, you can't rely on
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: on the home team not batting in the ninth for
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: a full game under, you know what I mean. It helps,
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: but that's something you can't, you know, assume is going
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: to happen. But the Red Sox, I think their offense
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: might be in a distracted mode here, so that helps
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: with the under as well, you know what I mean,
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: the return home from the road trip. Guys have to
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: get back to home life. They could definitely be distracted.
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: Even though I did just say maybe the Red Sox
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: will be focused because they didn't play well against Minnesota
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: that last time, and that was the series where Garrett
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: Crochet got totally blown up in that series and we
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: knew something was wrong with Crochet. Luckily for the Red Sox,
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: so they have a lot of young, talented pitchers and
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: their starting pitching rotation has been fine. But I like
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: both starting pitchers in this one. Connor Prelip is pitching
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: from Minnesota. He's got a two point eight eight ERA
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: point nine to six whip. He's been basically pretty much
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: the same home and away. We had an under in
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: his game the last time out. It was a first
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: five under, but that in the full game.
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: Both hit.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: He's only allowed four earned runs this month in sixteen innings.
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: He's got an eighteen to six strike out walk ratio.
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: You'd like to see the walks a little bit lower
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: than that, but that's not bad, and he's only allowed
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: ten hits over that s man. Minnesota's lost all three outings,
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: but some of that is because the bullpen imploded in
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: one of the games.
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: With the other.
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, some of it was the bullpen, but it
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: also was that Minnesota couldn't score in one of the
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: games as well.
• 45:58
  Speaker 5: Overall, Prelip looks good.
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: Though he's allowed way below one hit per inning, a
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is more than one per inning, and his
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: walk rate is fairly low as well. So he's been good.
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: I like that, And the Red Sox have never faced
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: him before, so I think that should be an advantage
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: to him here. Also, he's a lefty, and I don't
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: know if it's still the case. So the Red Sox
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: tend to struggle against left handed pitchers as far as
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: I can tell, I don't. I might have to look
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: that up now. I don't want to put anything out
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: there that's wrong.
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: So but just.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: In their history, I think that's kind of been the case.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: But you got to look up what the numbers are
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: this year. But I don't really care. As far as
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: his handicap, I think that lefties just in general, tend
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: to be harder to figure out if.
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: You haven't seen them before. So I like it.
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: I think the Red Sox offense is not going to
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: do a ton here. Peyton totally is pitching for the
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: Red Sox. He's pitching well as well. He's also a
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: lefty two point zero five R point seven to eight whip.
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: He's been quite good.
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: He's been better at home as well, one point six
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: y four homey ra. He's faced some good lineups here
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: to man, he's battle tested. He's faced New York, the Yankees,
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, not the Mets, the Braves last time. I
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: pitched pretty well there, although his strikeout rate was down,
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: but he had a good start anyway, and they couldn't.
• 47:16
  Speaker 5: Really hit him.
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: And he had a decent start against Tampa Bay in
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: there as well. Yeah, he's got good numbers overall, dude.
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: He's allowed well below one hit per inning. His strikeout
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: rate is right there around one per inning, low walk
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: rate as well. Totally looks like he's good. And of
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: course Minnesota has never faced him before except Tristan Gray
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: is zero for one off him. Other than that, Yeah,
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: we have two unfamiliar starting pitchers here. They're both young,
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: talented pitchers as far as I can tell, both.
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: Pitching well here.
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: We have one really really good bullpen here and the
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: other the bullpen that's bad, is facing a really weak offense.
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: So I'm hoping that cancels it out a little bit.
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: I'm hoping the bullpen rest also means Minnesota can use
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: better relief pitchers.
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: Here, So we're gonna go under full game here.
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: Like I said, if you want to go first five innings,
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: I don't disagree with that. I almost made this a
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: first five inning play. I was hoping that there was
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: gonna be a four, but the best I saw was
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: like laying minus one thirty five minus one forty on that.
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you want to do that, I guess
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: you can. But I was like, now, the better price
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: is just on the full game here under that key
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: number seven and a half. So that's what we're gonna
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: go with there. And yes, I realized that when I
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: was talking about the weather. Yes, I know the Cincinnati game,
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: it's also gonna be somewhat cool at sixty eight, but
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: I still think that game reads as an over game
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: to me, in that Saint Louis Cincinnati game. And if
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: it gets if it gets rained out, then you know,
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: your bet just won't happen. So I'm fine with that
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: as well. If we just you know, if the bet
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: just never happens, it is what it is. We just
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: don't want to loss. Man, I gotta get through this, man,
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I'm going slow here. Mets at Miami.
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: Both these teams played yesterday. I'm pretty sure Miami finished
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: a four game series against Atlanta and lost again. But
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: Miami is staying at home here. The Mets are traveling
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: in from Washington. Yeah, so not really a horrible travel swop.
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: And the Mets beat Washington yesterday. I don't know if
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: that's really that big of a deal. I mean, both
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: teams probably show up for the series. It's a divisional series.
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: Both teams have had their issues this year. The Mets
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday they used four,
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: Miami used two. Miami's bullpen is a little bit better
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: than the Mets, and they set up a little bit
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: better here. Miami's ranked sixth, Mets tenth in bullpen, probably
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: a little bit of an edge to Miami there. Mets
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: are still ranked dead last. They were tied with the
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: Padres when we looked yesterday, but they're alone dead lasting
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: in an offense based on ops that's not good. Miami's eighteenth,
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: So Miami does have the better offense, although it's not great.
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: Interesting starting pitching here, Tobias Myers is pitching for the Mets.
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: He used to be on the Brewers and he has
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: been a starting pitcher in the past, but the Mets
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: have been using him out of the bullpen, and he's
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: been good. He's got a three point four to one
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: ERA one point zero three whip pretty much the same
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: numbers home and away. Problem is, it looks like he's
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: not gonna make a full start here because he pitched
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: on the eighteenth, so he's not really on a full
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: starter's rest here. The Mets do have him starting the
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: game at least right now, they have him listed as
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: the starter. Let me say, I want to make sure
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: because there was one undecided pitcher here too. I'm just
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: looking for where that was it was. I think it
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: was Atlanta was undecided, but ESPN had Elder listed, but
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: now they have listed Elder as their starter, so I
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: don't know what was going on with that. But anyway, Yeah,
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: it looks like Myers is the listed starter here for
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: the Mets, so we'll go with that, I guess, but
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: I don't I think he's gonna give you a full
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: starters workload here. Looks like he's probably gonna go I
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: would guess he might go three innings something in that
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: ballpark here, but I really don't know. But his numbers
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: overall have been pretty good against Miami.
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: Let me see.
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: He hasn't been that good against Miami, but they only
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: have five hitters too have faced and ten at bats,
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: three hundred batting average, thirteen seventeen ops, four to two
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. You know, it's not great, So maybe
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: his matchup here isn't that great. But I generally think
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: Myers is going to pitch well here though, And I
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: think he should still be a starter, dude, because in
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty four he was a starter almost the whole
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: time for Milwaukee, almost an entire season, and he put
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: up good numbers. So I don't know why he's not
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: still a starting pitcher. Like I liked him that year.
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: I thought he was gonna be pretty decent.
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: Maybe the Mets are transitioning him into being a full
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: time starter again.
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: Juri Perez is pitching for Miami and he's had some
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: issues five point three to three ERA, one point four
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: to one whip. You don't like to see that, because
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: you know, I'm I'm a fan of Perez. I've liked
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: some of what he's done in the past. It sucks
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: that he's already had like multiple Tommy John surgeries and
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: he's only twenty three. But he has a lot of talent,
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: but it just hasn't really totally panned out.
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: But he's been good at home this year.
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: He has pretty significant home road splits three point eighty
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: six home e RA, so he is better at home.
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: He's been bad this month, but a lot of it
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: has been on the road, well half of it has
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: been on the road. He's got more than one strike
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: up per inning, so that's good, and fewer than one
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: hit per innings, so he's still been unhittable this month.
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: Although Miami's lost all of his starts, they've lost his
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: last five starts.
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: The problem is the walks.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: All the rest of his numbers are good, high strike
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: out rate, low hit rate.
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: That's the case over the course of the season as well.
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: The walk number is too high and he's got to
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: figure that out. So that's the concern with them, is
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: that he's really wild. He will be facing who are
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: you even talking about here? The Mets, right, Yeah.
• 53:07
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the.
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: Mets not good, although they only have five hitters were
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: fased before sixteen at bats three seventy five batting AURG,
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: twelve eighty seven ops. So I don't love that like
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: when I first looked at the starting pitching matchup, it
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: read as an under to me, but maybe not given
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: these pitching numbers here, the matchup numbers, so you don't
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: want to weigh them that heavily when the sample size
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: is that small. So I don't know, man, I mean,
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: the money's indicating a.
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: Little bit towards the over.
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: Here the totals at nine, it's sixty or sorry at eight,
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: excuse me eight, sixty six percent of tickets on the over,
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: sixty nine percent of the cash on the over. The
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: money is indicating on Miami as well, though, sixty one
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on the Mets, ninety two percent of
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: the cash on Miami. And it looks like the Mets
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: open as a minus one thirty or so favorite, and
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: now the Mets are a small face. So now Miami
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: is a small favorite after the Mets open to road favorite.
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on with all of that.
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: I don't think the Mets should be favored in this
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: particular matchup here, but yeah, I don't know. I don't
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: have a good.
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: Read on the game. The money is saying Miami.
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: Perez has definitely been in bad form though, but the
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: Mets look like they're kind of going with a bullpen
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: game here. You know, I don't like that either, So
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: the more I think about it, I mean, I don't know.
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, there are definitely arguments for an over here too,
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: even though, like I said, when I first saw these pitchers,
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: I was thinking, Oh, Myers, I like him, Perez, I
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: like him under But then you know, you think about
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: it more bad pitching numbers matchup wise with both than
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: even though small sample, Mets might actually be going with
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game here. I don't know. When you start
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: thinking about it that way, it actually almost kind of
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: starts swinging more towards seeming like an over type of game.
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: You can see why I'm not playing the game. But
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: those are my thoughts on that one. Detroit at Baltimore
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: on Apple TV at seven fifteen pm Eastern. Baltimore is
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: returning over from a road trip. And you know I
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: talk about that when a team returns home from a
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: road trip, people would be like, oh, Baltimore lost five
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: out of six on the road trip. They were playing
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay last. They're playing a much lesser Detroit team here.
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: Baltimore should bounce back. Now that they're at home. That's
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: what the public is gonna have a tendency to think.
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: I don't agree with that. I think even when you
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: had a bad road trip, I think the road trip
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: return spot is a negative regardless of whether the trip
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: was good or bad. So I think that's bad. I
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: think Baltimore it's a distraction spot. You have to get
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: back to home, life, etc. But they do have a
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: rest advantage here because Detroit did play at home yesterday.
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: But maybe for them it'll be positive. Just get out
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: of home, you know what I mean. Detroit just got
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: swept four straight games by Cleveland. Maybe it'd be good
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: for Detroit to just say fuck it, just leave home,
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: go out on the road, change your environment. So in
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: a way, it is kind of a focused spot for Detroit.
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: So even though Baltimore does have a rest advantage, I
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: think it's negated by how bad to return home spot.
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: His plus Detroit being.
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: In a focused spot situational, and Detroit only has two
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen, so that's not that bad.
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen's not great, there ain't eighteenth. Baltimore is a
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: little bit worse than that at twenty first, So Baltimore's
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: bullpen e Ray is almost a run higher, so Detroit
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: actually does have the better bullpen. Baltimore has been better
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: offensively sixteenth. Detroit has fallen completely apart a twenty third
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: now offensively. But the problem with back in Detroit is
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: you have to back Jack Flaherty here if you want Detroit.
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: I don't want to do that.
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty bad five point seven to seven e
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: Rray one point six whip. He's been a little bit
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: better on the road, but not much basically the same
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: this month. He has a decent strikeout walk ratio twenty
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: to seven, pretty high strikeout rate.
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: Number hits he's alloted isn't that bad.
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: But Detroit's lost six starts in a row of his anyway,
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: he has not allowed more than four earned runs in
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: any of his starts this month, so he's been actually
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: a little bit better this month, but he faced has
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: faced a lot of weak lineups here, Texas, Boston, the Matts, Toronto.
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: Those are not lineups to do a lot of damage, really,
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: And we faded Flowerty. I think in one of those games,
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: I forget which one it was, but we did get
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: a win in one of those games, fading.
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: And I think it was the Texas game. I don't remember.
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: I think it was that. It might have been more
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: than one of them. Actually, what else was I about
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: to say?
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: Oh?
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Baltimore, though, is not really that much of a
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: step up offensively. Baltimore is going with Chris Bassett, and
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: if you watch my show, you know I'm not a
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: fan of Bassett. He's got a five point four to
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: four ERA one point seven whip here. He's really good
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: at home though, two point nine to one home ERA,
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: so he is way better at home. Bassett is actually
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: doing a little bit better this month, sort of. He's
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: allowed four or fewer earned runs all in all three outings.
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: His team has won two of them. He's got a
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: thirteen to five strikeout walker ratio, which I guess is
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: not as bad over the course of the season, though
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: he's allowed way more than one hit per inning. His
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: strike gut rate is down, it's pretty low. His walk
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: rate is not that impressive, it's fairly high. So overall,
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: Bassett's numbers don't look that good to me. And I
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: forgot to look at Flowerty's matchup numbers here, so I
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: gotta go back Flaherty. Sorry, I'm all over the place here.
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: Flowerting on the course of the season hasn't allowed that
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: many hits, fewer than one per inning, and his strike
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: gout rate is actually high, but his walk rate is
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: crazy high. Flaherty, that's his problem is the walks. He's
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: got to get that under control here. Going up against Baltimore,
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: Let's see what his numbers are here, not very good
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: in twenty six at bats three zero eight batting average allowed,
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: eight to sixty two OPS, six to four strike out
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So Flaherty might not do well here. Chris Bassett,
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: like I said, does have the home road splits in
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: his favor here at least, but I still don't really
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: trust him.
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: He's going up against Detroit.
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: His numbers are not great here against Detroit fifty at
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: bats to sixty, batting average, eight to thirty five OPS,
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: fourteen to one strike out walk ratio is good, though,
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: and I think his matchup numbers a little bit better
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: than Flawherty's. I don't trust either of them, though I
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: think I would lean over in this game. It's not
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: one that made the cut for me or anything. The
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: money seems to disagree with me on that, and you know,
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: there are some problems with it, like Baltimore's bullpen is rested.
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: They're returning on from a road trip, which might distract
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: their hitting. Detroit's hitting has been completely in the gutter recently,
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: so I know there were some problems with an over here.
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: But eighty percent of tickets, sixty percent of the cash
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: on the over, so the money's indicating towards the under.
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: But I would not do that. I lean over, and
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: I will lean slightly towards Baltimore here. I think. I
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: don't know if I want to do that though, because
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: the spot definitely favors Detroit though, but I think the
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup favors Chris Bassett here.
• 59:53
  Speaker 5: Do with that information what you want.
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: Seventy one percent of tickets, eighty two percent of the
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: cash on Baltimore.
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: They're at minus one thirty six or so here.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: But still I think the situation is actually strongly against
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: Baltimore though, so they have the pitching matchup edge, I think,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: but it doesn't seem that significant, so you know, maybe
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: maybe scratch that, maybe I do actually lean towards Detroit
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: a little bit there. Obviously I do not have that
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: game figured out. It's not on my card. Nope, Washington
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: at Atlanta. Atlanta played yesterday and the returning home from
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: the road, but they only were on the road for
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: one series against Miami, So I don't consider that to
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: be that bad of a spot because they weren't away
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: for that long. They were only in Florida, and they're
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: coming back home to Atlanta here. That's not that bad.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: But still they might overlook Washington. Washington's not a good
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: team and Atlanta just swept Miami or sorry, I know
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: they won three out of four. Sorry, but that's still
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: maybe Atlanta will be feeling a little bit high on
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: themselves here. Washington also played yesterday, they lost to the Mets,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: and now they're starting a road trip.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: Washington was at home.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: The spot is a little bit better for Washington because
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: they are going out on the road. You gotta figure
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: they will focus on Atlanta. Problem with Washington, obviously, is
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: you cannot back their starting pitcher in this game michel
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: Us no way, and Atlanta has a better bullpen as well.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: Atlanta used three relieved pitchers yesterday, Washington used two. But
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's bullpen is way better. They're rank number one in
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: these rankings right now. In Washington is twenty fifth. Atlanta
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: also is a really good offense. It's at number two,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: but Washington's four, So Washington has hit well. But Miles
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: Mikolus pitcher for Washington. Yeah, I mean, the only thing
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: I would be able to do is fade Micholas basically
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: regardless of what he's doing. He's got a six point
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: nine one ERA one point four to nine whip not good.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: He is a little bit better on the road though,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: six point zero five road ERA, and Atlanta actually doesn't
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: hit that well at home. But that's probably the best
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: you could say about Mikolas. He's been a little bit better,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: I guess, this month, but still not going deep into outings,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: you know, mediocre numbers at best. Here Over the course
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: of the season, he's allowed way over one hit per inning.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: His walk rate isn't really that high, but he's also
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: a lot of eleven home runs, so he's way too
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: hittum when he allows a lot of power hitting, which
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: is not good. And his strikeout rate is also really low,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: so that's bad. He's facing a good line up the Braves.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: The Braves have hit him okay, but not as well
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: as you would think. He's got one hundred and twenty
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: six at bats against them, seventeen to five strike out
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is actually pretty good. Two seventy eight batting
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: average a looted seven forty two ops is still below
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: that like seven point fifty threshold where I start saying, yeah,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: the pitcher is at a disadvantage here. Still, I don't
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: really think Mikolas is gonna do well here. I would
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: obviously rather be on the side of Bryce Elder, but
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: obviously you're gonna have to pay a huge price if
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: you want Atlanta here, because obviously they're the better team
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: across the board.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 5: Elder.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know what was going on with the board here,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: were uh and Atlanta was listed as undecided and ESPN
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: had it listed as Elder, but it looks like they
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: have announced that it is Elder starting, So I don't
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: know what the deal was with that. Elder is actually
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: pitching well this year two point zero one ERA point
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: nine to nine whip after he really really struggled last year.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: His career has been a roller coaster.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: Dude.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: He was really good early in his career. I think
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: he had like an injury issue, tried to come back,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: really really was struggling. But now I think he's figured
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: something out and he's pitching well again this season, but
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is not what it once was, so
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: I think he's learning how to pitch with his new limitations.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: Let's say, even though he's not even old, he's twenty seven.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 5: But whatever.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: He's been slightly worse at home, but not bad. Two
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: point one seven e RA. He's been good this month,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: twenty to seven strike out walk, right, she was fine,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: but he's only allowed ten hits in nineteen to two
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: thirds in He's He's pitched pretty well.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: Overall.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: Is like I said, his strike out rate is down,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: It's not really that high, but yeah, he's allowed.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: Very few hits this season.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: He's been very difficult to hit, and his walk rate
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: is mediocre, which isn't too bad. I guess he'll be
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: facing Washington here. Washington has hit him pretty well though,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: sixty eight at bats two ninety four batting average allowed,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: seven to eighty four OPS.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 5: That's not good.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: So Elder actually has the lesser matchup numbers here against Micholas.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: You know, I don't think I would want to deal
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 4: with that, though. The money's coming in towards Washington. Hilarious.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's around minus two twenty. I mean, the argument would
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: be that Atlanta shouldn't be favored by this much, given
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: you know, the situation being a little bit against them,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: and given that the pitching matchup looks like maybe it's
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: a little bit closer than you would think. But Atlanta
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 4: does have a huge boltpen edge. There's still the way
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: better team. I don't want Washington. Eighty five percent of
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: tickets on Atlanta, seventy one percent of the cash on Washington,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: the totals nine. I could see some arguments for an
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: over here. I mean, Micholas is is always an argument
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: for an O, and so is Washington his bullpen. I
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: know Atlanta's bulpen is good. I don't really want to
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: fade Elder here because he is pitching well. But Elder
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: does have bad matchup numbers, So you know, do with
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: that info what you want, all right? Uh, Usually I
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: take a break at the hour mark, but usually it's
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: with five games left, I still have one more play
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: to give out here, which is.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 5: I don't even remember which game it was.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: I think it's it's in the last game on the
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: board actually, so it is not this game Dodgers Milwaukee,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: which is gonna be the biggest weekend series here. Milwaukee
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: might be in a little bit of a bad spot
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: because they're returning home from the road, But they were
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: only in Minnesota and Chicago to face the Cubs, so
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: obviously that trip from Chicago to Milwaukee not a big concern.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: You could take a bus to do that, so I'm
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: not that concerned by that.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 5: But still they were.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: Away from home for a week, so that is still
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: technically a negative typically on the return home, But then again,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: they're also facing the Dodgers, so they're probably not gonna
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: overlook the Dodgers. But that was a huge series sweep
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: the Milwaukee just head against Chicago the Cubs in Milwaukee,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: one of those two teams is gonna win the NL Central.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: I am pretty positive of that. So that was a
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: big series sweep for Milwaukee. So there is there is
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: a potential letdown component to this, so I would consider
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: this to be a negative spot for Milwaukee. Generally, Dodgers
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: just beat the Padres and now they're coming in from
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: the Pacific Coast. They're having to go all the way
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: to Milwaukee, so the Dodgers are having to travel more
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: on this leg of travel. The Dodgers did not play yesterday.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: I don't believe Milwaukee did either though. No, So both
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: teams are off yesterday, which is good for the bullpen's
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: set up here. Bullpen's are resting and they're both good.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers have the second ranked bullpen here at a
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: really good bullpen y RA. So they've cleaned up that.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: That was their main issue last year and they've cleaned that. Yeah,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: this Dodgers team, they got to get some of their
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: injured hitters back. But yeah, Dodgers are the best team
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: in baseball.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: Man. Milwaukee is a good team too.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: And Milwaukee is twelfth and bullpen as well, so their
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: bullpen is also good. Dodgers are number one in offense.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is climbing. They're at seventeenth, so Milwaukee is improving offensively.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are going with Justin Robleski. I can't figure this out, man, Robleski.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: He doesn't have good strikeout stuff. He's kind of a
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: junk pitcher, but he's continuing to pitch well and he's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: still pretty young. I mean, I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: I can't really argue with what he's doing. Two point
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: four to nine ERA one point zero three whip, even
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: though I think the advanced analytics guys will tell you
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: he's gonna fall off at some point, but I don't
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: necessarily want to fade him right now.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: He's been good on the road as well. One point
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: five Roady Ray.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: He had one pretty questionable start against Atlanta, but they
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: still him go almost a complete game.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: In that outing, he.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: Allowed seven in runs, so they let him just keep
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: going and he still had a good strikeout walk ratio there.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: He's got a twelve three strike out walk ratio this month,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: which is it's not a lot of strikeouts, but he's
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: not walking a lot of guys, which that's basically what
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: he's done all season. He's not allowed many hits, well
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: below one hit per inning. His walk rate is pretty low,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: but his strikeout rate is very low, so he's not
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: fooling hitters, and he's allowing a.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: Lot of fly balls.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: So yeah, that is a concern, But the Dodgers have
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: won most of his starts, and he's allowed more than
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 4: two eurn runs only twice this season, and one was
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: his first start of the season. The other one was
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: that Atlanta start I mentioned. Yeah, he's generally he is
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: pitching well against Milwaukee. He hasn't been that great. They
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: have eleven at bats against him. It's not a big sample.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: Six of their hitters are face him, but they do
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: have a two seventy three average eight seventy nine ohps
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: off him, two to one strike out walk ratio, so
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: Robleski might struggle in this game. He's going up against
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: Logan Henderson, who I probably prefer. I think Henderson is
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: just the more talented pitcher here. He's got a three
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: point five RA so far, one point six whip pitching
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: for the Brewers. He's pitched well so far. Home and
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: away very similar era there, so not significant home road splits.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 5: He's only made four starts so far.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: We got a first five undercorrect in his last game,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: which was him against pre lip. I liked that one.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: The full game went under as well. Henderson's actually been
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: really good. He's made four starts so far. One was
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: a short outing against Kansas City, but throughout the whole
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: thing he's allowed no more than touring runs in any
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: of his outings. He has a twenty to two strikeout
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: walk raceyar this month in sixteen innings pitch with only
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: thirteen hits allowed, and his numbers over the course of
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: the season are pretty much that high strikeout rate, pretty
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: low hit rate, in a very low walk rate. He's
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: pitching really well, dude, And I know he has to
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: go up against the Dodgers here, but he did face
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: the Yankees already, and Washington is a pretty good offense too,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: and he faced them, so the fact that he did
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: pretty well in those outings, he's somewhat battle tested here,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: so I don't think he's gonna be totally intimidated facing
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers here. And he does have an advantage where
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: he hasn't pitched against him before, so the Dodgers have
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: not seen him before, so Henderson might have a little
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: bit of an advantage there. I kind of like, you know,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I don't really want to leaan
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee here because the I think the situation is bad,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: but the money's indicating on Milwaukee, and I do actually
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: lean that way as well. I think Henderson has the
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: upper hand over Robleski, and then I think the bullpens
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: are kind of a wash. But the situation for Milwaukee
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: really does worry me. So I'm not gonna play this.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: But Dodgers fifty two percent of tickets on them fifty
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: eight percent of the cash on Milwaukee. The line is
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: right around to pick them price like basically picked the winner,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: and the money's coming in the over. I don't think
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: I agree with that. Both starting pictures have been good.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: Robleski matchup numbers are so limited against Milwaukee, I don't
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: know the money coming in on the over. I think
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: an under makes more sense in this game to me,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: the totals at eight and a half, I think both
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: starting pitchers could get the job done, and then both
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: bullpens are pretty good as well, and they're both rested.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I would lean under in that game, which
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: actually I might prefer the under to the side actually
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: in that one. But I don't want to play the game,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: all right, Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 5: The Braves do keep winning.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: Yes, I still think Carolina is gonna win the NHL
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: series there, but I don't know, man, I'm I gotta
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: look into it more. But I might give out a
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: play on Carolina tomorrow. I'm definitely not gonna be on
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: Montreal tomorrow, though I can tell you that much.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 5: I don't know if I'm gonna play Carolina or not.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: But that game already I know is gonna be Carolina
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: or pass, but it's gonna have to be like a
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: puck line situation on Carolina. All Right, I'm gonna be
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: right back. I'll talk about the rest of these games.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: I have one more play, which is another baseball total.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: I already told you which game it was in. You
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: can probably guess what the play is already, but I
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: will be back in a second.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 4: One thing about Montreal, by the way, I just saw
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: it come up on ESPN over here. They're the highest
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: scoring first period team in the NHL Playoffs this postseason,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: so that was another indicator that you could have played
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: them first period, which I you know, I said that
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: was a possible way to attack that game as well,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: which I'm pretty sure that was a winner.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: But we went full game and that was also a winner.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: All right. Seattle at Kansas City. Kansas City is staying
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: at home. They just got swept by the Red Sox.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 4: They didn't play yesterday, so Kansas City could be in
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: a bit of a bounce back spot here. Seattle also
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: did not play yesterday, already a road trip coming off
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: of winning a series against the.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 5: White Sox, Seattle.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: They're the better team though, and people are probably gonna
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: look at this and see the records and Seattle's is better.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: But I don't know if the public's gonna want to
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 4: lay a favorite price on the road with Seattle, though,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: I think they are the better team, especially.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 5: In the bullpen.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: The bullpens are both rested here, but Seattle's got the
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. They were ranked seventeenth, but their era is
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: like a top five bullpen. The Ray they're good. Kansas
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: City not good, twenty sixth. Offensively, Seattle has struggled a bit.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: They're twentieth right now, tied in twentieth. The Royals have
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: fallen a bit. They're at eighteenth, but yeah, I mean
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: they've hit a little bit better than Seattle, though I
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: don't know I could see the argument that Seattle is
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: a better offense though. Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: in this game. He's been the better of these two pitchers.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: He's got a four point four to five ERA, but
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: his one point one to five whip indicates that his
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: era should be lower than that. He's pitched better than
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: his would suggest. He's been really good on the road.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: Kind of crazy to see a Seattle pitcher be that
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: much better on the road. They're almost always better at home.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on with him, but it's
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: a smaller sample, but he has a one point five
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: to nine Roady ray, so he's pitched well on the road.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: He did not do well in his last start at
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: home against San Diego, gave up three home runs. He
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: wound up giving up seven earned runs on five hits,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: so I think he got a little bit unlucky there.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: But he's got to stop allowing home runs, dude. He's
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: allowed seven home runs this month and all of them
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: came at home, and Seattle's ballpark is not a home
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: run produced a ballpark. I don't know what is going
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: on with Gilbert at home right now. Man. His overall
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: numbers are pretty good though on the course of the season,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: he's got more than one strike up per inning, fewer
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 4: than one hit allowed per inning in his walk rates
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: not very high, but the number home runs is insane eleven.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 5: He needs to fix that.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: But he's only allowed one home run on the road though,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: but it's in way fewer innings, but still he is
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 4: allowing fewer home runs per inning on the road though,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 4: so you know, a.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 5: Road start might be good for him here.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: I know he's going to Kansas City, where Kansas City
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: is no longer a really pitcher front of the ballpark
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: because they moved the walls. In his numbers against Kansas
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: City are not that good. In eighty eight at bats,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: eighty eight at bats, two seventy three batting average eight
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: oh six ops, nineteen to nine strikeout walk ratio not great.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: So I don't really want Gilbert here. Noah Camer and
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 4: his pitcher for Kansas City. He was good last year,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: but this year he's really really struggled in his second season.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: I think in the majors five point four ERA, one
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 4: point five to one whip that is not good. He's
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: been a little bit better at home, but not much
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: five point two to three home e RA.
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 5: He's been okay this month.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: He's giving up three on runs in each of his outings,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: eight strikeouts, three walks.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's not horrible.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 4: It was at home against Detroit, but he didn't even
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 4: make it five innings in that one, and then he
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: had a d said start last time out at Saint Louis.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: His overall numbers, you know, I mean I wouldn't say
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: they're terrible, but the amount of hits is pretty bad.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: He's allowed well over one hit per inning. But a
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: lot of that came in like one outing at the
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: A's Stadium though, so maybe you do have to kind
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: of give him a pass for that. His walk rate
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: isn't too bad. His strike up rate is a little
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: bit low, but I don't know.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: Overall.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: His numbers don't look that bad to me. But his
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: r and his whip are both bad, and the whip
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: doesn't lie too much. Numbers against Seattle are decent. In
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: fourteen at bats, I haven't really seen too much of them.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 4: They only have one extra base. He had a double
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: from JP Crawford. Two strike ups, no walks, two eighty
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: six average six forty three ops. Cameron might actually be
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: able to pitch okay. Here, the money is coming in
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: on Kansas City. In this one, fifty eight percent of
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: tickets on Seattle, seventy five percent of the cash on
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: the Royals. Though Seattle's dropped a bit, they're around mind
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: one twenty now as a favorite. Here, the money looks
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: like it. It's definitely coming in on Kansas City.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: What I will say is if you go Kansas City here.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: I think you gotta go first five innings here because
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: I would not want their bullpen against Seattle's bullpen.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: The money's also indicating on the under here.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know about that, but the argument for Kansas
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: City first five is that Cameron has better matchup numbers
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: than over Gilbert, but Gilbert has I mean, he has
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: the good home road splits here, and I think Gilbert's
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: better than his era looks.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 5: So those are some concerns that I.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: Have with it.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 5: Texas at Anaheim.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: Anaheim played yesterday and they probably should have gotten swept
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: in the series. Was a four game series against the A's.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: They lost two of the games. I won run and
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 4: they won one of the games that remember, they won
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: that game after getting no hit into the eighth inning
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: and then Gain lost it and they hit a two
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: run home run against them. So Anaheim could have lost
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: every game in that series. But they also could have
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: won three out of the four James.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 5: So you know, maybe it.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: Wasn't as bad as it looked. Anaheim, I don't know
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: what they're doing. Man, Maybe they will show up staying
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: at home off an ugly series. But Texas is the
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: rested team here. Texas is in the middle of a
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: road trip though they're coming in from Colorado, having to
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: go from elevation to the Pacific coast. That's not that
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: easy to do. But Texas is rested and they have
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: the way better bullpen. Texas was off yesterday, like I said,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: Anaheim was not. Anaheim us four relief pitchers. So Texas
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: has a huge bullpen advantage here. They're resting in their
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: number five in bullpen, but they have the best bullpen
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: in ERA.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 5: Anaheim is terrible.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is second worst bullpen in both WHIP and ERA,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: really really bad.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 5: Offensively.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is falling off as well, and they're actually behind
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: Texas offensively. Now Texas twenty third, Anaheim twenty fifth, or
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: Texas tied in twenty third. Jacob de Gram pitching for
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 4: Texas at the starting pitching matchup, mean you think this
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: is clearly an advantage for Texas, although Texas is making
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: you pay a big price for it because everybody knows
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: how good to grom As, and yeah he is. He's
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: got a three point oh two e RA point nine
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: to one whip. He hasn't been that good on the
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 4: road though, four point six to seven roadyra so he
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 4: pitches better in the very pitcher friendly Texas Stadium. There
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: ballpark at Arlington, whatever the fuck it is now.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's more of a hit or friendly ballpark.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: De Gram wasn't really good in his last down and
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: against Houston, but he allowed four home runs and those
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: were the only runs he scored. They scored against four
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: solo home runs, very strange. The home run ball has
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 4: been an issue for him recently. He's allowed six home
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 4: runs this month between two starts against Houston and the Yankees.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: But he also did really well against the Cobbs. But
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: he's faced really strong lineups in his last four games
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: facing the Yankees, Houston, and the Cobbs. That's not that easy.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: And over all, his numbers are still really good on
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: the season. Really low hit rate, high strikeout rate, really
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: low walk rate. I mean, I'm not too concerned by him,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: although he has a lot of ten home runs this season,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: which that part of it is concerning. Will he bounce
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: back here against Anaheim? Anaheim hasn't been playing well, but
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know. His numbers against Anaheim are actually not
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: that good. In fifty nine at bats, twenty to six
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is good too, eighty eight batting average
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 4: allowed eight to twenty eight ops. Those numbers are not good,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: So I don't know if we could trust to Gram here.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: He's going up against a real wild card and Grayson Rodriguez,
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: who is only twenty six years old. He started out
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 4: a season with his career, excuse me, with Baltimore. Like
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: I mentioned in his last start, he started pitching pretty
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 4: well with Baltimore, and then he got injured and he
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: missed all of last year. He came back and he
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: was really really shaky. To put it mildly, but he
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: had to face the Dodgers. Dude, in his first start
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: coming back from a year plus out out of Major
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: League baseball.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 5: Maybe I gotta give him a pass for that.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: He comes in, he has to face the best offense
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: in baseball, but he wasn't good.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 5: He gave up seven and runs and three and two
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 5: thirds innings.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 4: Four strikeouts is pretty good, but four walks as well
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: and seven hits. But you know, I think I'm leaning
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: towards you have to give him a pass for that
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 4: because it was really like a tough ask.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 5: In that one.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 4: And you know, in his return to have to do that,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 4: maybe give him a pass for it. He will be
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: going up against Texas here, which is a much easier assignment.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 4: Texas's offense is a lot weaker than the Dodgers, although
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 4: Texas hits better on the road, though, because their home
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 4: ballpark is so pitcher friendly, Texas actually does hit better
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: on the road, and this is a more hitter.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: Friendly park here.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: He's been decent against Texas when he's faced them in
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: the past twenty five at bats seven to one, strike
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio to forty batting average allowed, seven to
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: forty nine.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 5: Oh ps, those numbers are all right, you know. I
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 5: mean it.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 4: Sounds ridiculous, but maybe Anaheim is worth considering in this game.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: I would not go full game on that, though, Like
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: maybe Rodriguez does actually pitch well enough to battle de
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: Gram here, and maybe there is some value in the
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: first five. Obviously, I would not go full game with
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: Anaheim here. They're bullpen is at a huge disadvantage. Texas
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: minus one, sixty years old on the money line is
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: a pretty hefty price, and it's probably pretty similar in
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 4: the first five innings. Sixty two percent of tickets on
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 4: Texas sixty one percent of the cash.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 5: On Anaheim, though, you know, I mean, I don't know, man,
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 5: I don't Obviously I don't want to do it.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: I don't. I don't want to actually take Rodriguez against
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: de Grom, But first five innings, you know, maybe that
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: is a way to look at that game. Uh, but
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: it's not gonna be one that's on my card. A's
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: at San Diego. So the A's from you know, they
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: play in one of the most hit or from the ballparks.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: They get to play in one of the most pitcher
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: friendly here. San Diego had yesterday off and they're staying
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: at home. They're coming off a tough series against the Dodgers.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 4: They lost two out of three to the Dodgers. Maybe
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: there's a little bit of a hangover effect there for
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: San Diego. Maybe not, because they didn't play yesterday.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 5: The A's did.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: The A's are only traveling from Anaheim to San Diego here,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: so that's not that bad.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 5: But the A's did play yesterday.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen is obviously significantly worse than San Diego's is,
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: and the A's also had to use three relief pitchers
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: yesterday while San Diego was resting. San Diego's ranking seventh
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: in bullpen right now, they're one of the top bullpens,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: so they're good. The A's twenty second not very good.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: Plus with the rest on top of that, San Diego
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: is a big bullpen advantage in this game. The A's
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: are seventh offensively though in San Diego's twenty ninth, so
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: the A's have an offensive edge, and just looking on
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: the surface, it looks like the A's have the starting
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: pitching edge here. With Jeffrey spring Is pitching, he's been
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: pretty good three point nine to three ERA, one point
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: two whip.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 5: He's better on the.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: Road, which is expected because the a Stadium is.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 5: So hitter friendly.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point oh four road e RA,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 4: which is pretty good. He's been decent this month, allowing
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: no more than fourign runs.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 5: In any of his outings. That was at home.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: He pitched well at home last time out against San
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 4: Francisco and then the bulp and completely blew. It wasn't
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: his fault in that one. He only allowed one ear
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 4: and run and six innings there. Twelve strikeouts, four walks
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 4: for him this month. That's pretty good. His overall numbers
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: are decent over the course of the season, He's allowed
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: fewer than one hit per inning. His walk rates not
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: that high, strike out rates a little bit low, but
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: you know, overall not too bad here.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 5: Numbers against San Diego.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: Pretty good in forty six at bats one ninety six
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 4: batting average allowed, five ninety three ohps, thirteen to three
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. So Springs might pitch well here. I
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: was thinking maybe I was gonna give out a play
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: on the A's first five here or something, because you know,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: I don't like Walker Buehler.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 5: He's pitching for San Diego. He's not having a great season.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 4: He's never really been able to bounce back from his
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: injury issues. Five point zero one ERA, one point three
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: to five WHIP. He's good at home this year though,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: three point one to six home ERA. He's significantly better
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: at home, which makes sense to pitcher friendly ballpark here.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: That's helped him out. He's actually been pretty good this month.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: San Diego's won all three of his starts this month.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: He's allowed four or fewer earned runs in all of them,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: two in each of the last two thirteen to two
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, and two of those outings are
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: on the road, but they were also in pitcher friendly
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: ballpark San Francisco and Seattle, but so is this one.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 5: His overall numbers aren't too bad.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 4: He's allowed more than one hit per inning, which is
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: a great His strike out rate is a little bit
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: below one per inning, not horrible, as walk rate a
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: little bit high though. I mean, that's kind of the
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: worst stat that he has there. But he has a
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 4: mean that bad facing the A's, who are a pretty
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: good lineup. They really basically just haven't even seen that
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 4: much of him. Only him and McNeil have ever faced him,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: and they're combined three for sixteen, often with no extra
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: base hits, three strikeouts.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 5: And two walks.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 4: It's a one eighty eight to average and four to
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: sixty five ops. But most of their lineup is actually
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: unfamiliar with Bueller, so maybe that's a little bit of
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: an edge to Bueller. But Bueller is no mystery. Though
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: he's a veteran, he's been around for so long. Guys
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: know how to hit against them, so that kind of
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: takes the unfamiliarity advantage away a little bit. I think
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: I do still lean towards the A's in the first
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: five year.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 5: I prefer Springs over Bueller.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: Still Obviously, San Diego is a huge bullpen advantage here though,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: so I don't want that included. But I think Springs
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: has a little bit of an edge over Bueller. So
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 4: maybe first five a's ninety percent of tickets, ninety four
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the a's, you're gonna get
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: them as an underdog.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 5: Probably the full game.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: They're an underdog, but they're probably less of a underdog
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 4: in the first five though. Minus one twenty five minus
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: one thirty is the price on San Diego for the
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: full game.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 5: Colorado at Arizona.
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 4: This series already started yesterday and Arizona won two to
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 4: one and then now won five games in a row.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 4: Pretty low scoring game for what you'd think from a
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 4: Colorado Arizona game. I mean, both teams they don't really
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: have particularly good pitching, and they both have good hitter.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: They both have good hitting ballparks. Arizona used three relief
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday, Colorado used four. Colorado Colorado had a bullpen
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 4: game going yesterday, so their bullpen has definitely overworked.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 5: Right now.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: Arizona's got the bullpen edg year. They're ranked fourth in
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: bullpen even though the ERA is above four. So I
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: don't think they're that good of a bullpen, but Colorado
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 4: has a worst bullpen ray and a way worse bullpen
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: whip in their ranked twentieth and they're less rested, So yes,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: Arizona does have the bullpen atg here. Arizona eleventh in hitting,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: Colorado is twentieth, so Arizona's been the better hitting team
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: as well Colorado. Tomoyuki Sugano, who I think was initially
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: gonna start yesterday, he is now starting today. He's been okay,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 4: four point zero two ERA, one point two six whip.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: He's been better outside of course Field, which obviously makes
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: sense for three point four to three road ERA, but
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: Arizona's a pretty hitter friendly ball park, although not as
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 4: much as course Field. H Sugano this month not great.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: He has four strikeouts and five walks this month in
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: fifteen to third inning, so he's not fooling guys.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 5: The water number wouldn't.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: Be that high, like it isn't really that high, but
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: the strikeout rate is just ridiculously low. He's not really
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: a strikeout pitcher though, but he's also a lot more
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: than one hit per inning and he just faced Arizona.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: He pitched fine in that out, he held him to
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: tour in runs in five innings in course field, but
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: he had two walks one strikeout, and Arizona just saw him,
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: So maybe they'll hit him better this time. So I
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: don't really love him in this matchup here. Overall, his numbers,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: you know, are not horrible. He's allowed fewer than one
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: hit per inning. His walk rate's not that high, but
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is really low. But he just induces
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: a lot of soft contact. That's the way that he
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: gets guys out. But he puts a lot of balls
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 4: in the air. And even with his last outing that
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: was good against Arizona, his numbers against them are still
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: not good. In twenty at bats, they have a four
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: hundred average against him oneenty twenty eight ohps, one strikeout,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: two walks. I don't really trust Sugano in this outing.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 4: He will be going up against Michael Soroka, who has
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: the better stuff three point four to nine e ray
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: for him this year, but his whip is a bit
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 4: high one point three to three. That's not very good.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: Soroco's been way better at home one point five to nine.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: Homie Iray, I don't know why that is, because it
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: is a hit a friendly park, but he's better at home.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: He did just pitch in that Colorado series as well,
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 4: and he pitched pretty well. He went five to two
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: thirds innings in his start. It was not in the
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: same game as the suit Gao game. I think Sraka
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: pitched the day after that. He had eight strikeouts, two walks,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: and give up two hour runs of five to two
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: thirds on six hits. Not bad. His strike out rates
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: good this year, over one per inning. He's allowed more
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: than one hit per inning too, though, that's not good.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: And his walk rate is pretty low. But he's allowed
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: too many hits, man, that's his problem. He's been too hittable,
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: so he needs to figure that out somehow. His numbers
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 4: against Colorado are pretty good forty nine at bats to
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: twenty four average, six fifty seven ops, sixteen to three
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. I think he has the better of
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 4: the matchup here. I prefer so Rika here, even though
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 4: Colorado did just see him. I just think so Riraka
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: has the better stuff. But if you want Arizona, you
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 4: gotta lay a huge price here. Yeah, former Brave, that
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 4: is correct. Yeah, Soriraka, he's been around, man, I think
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: he was on Washington last year or something as well,
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 4: and that didn't really pan out. But maybe he's in
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: a better spot here. I think he's like typically been
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: way better at home, though, like regardless of where he pitches.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 4: I think the money is fading Arizona here. By the way,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 4: they're minus two twenty at some shops here. I mean
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: that number does seem high, even though I think Soroka
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: has the edge here. I think Arizona has the better bullpen.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: They have the better offense too, so they do win
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 4: all phases of this game. But minus two twenty is
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 4: definitely a high price. I think Colorado is being disrespected
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: a bit in the market, even though they are a
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 4: bad team. Arizona, you're probably reaching a point where they're
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 4: kind of peaking in their market value, like they're peaking
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: in being over valued in the market, let's say, because
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 4: they want a bunch of games in a row, you know.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 5: So I don't think Arizona.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: Is quite that good, so maybe that's the thing. Though
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 4: the money actually is coming in on Arizona now, so
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: my mistake. But they are public eighty five percent of tickets,
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 4: eighty eight percent of the cash on them. The money
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: is really heavily indicating on the over seventy percent of
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 4: tickets on the under eighty seven percent of the cash
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: the over. I don't know, man, I really I think
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 4: I would probably go. You could go like Arizona over
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 4: their team total, maybe because the money's coming in on
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 4: the over and if you think Arizona's gonna win the
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: game and you don't want to pay this minus two
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: twenty price or lay a run line with them or whatever,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 4: Arizona over their team total does make some sense because
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: they're gonna be facing somewhat weak pitching here in a
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 4: hit or friend the environment, So that makes some sense
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: to me as.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 5: A way to play that game.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 4: You're gonna need them to score a lot of runs,
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: though they probably have to score five runs in the game,
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 4: something like that, which is, you know, that's not too
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 4: much of an ask. Final game Here is my final
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: player of the day in the late night game here
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: the late night Special. You might have already figured out
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: what we're doing here. I know we have another bad
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: bullpen here, but we're gonna go under in White Sox
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: and San Francisco here under the seven. You could go
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: under three and a half first five if you want to.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: I think the starting pitching is obviously a huge factor here,
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: but my hope in these full game unders is that
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching can get us a little bit deep
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: bur into the games and help us out with the
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 4: bullpens because we have one bad bullpen one good bullpen
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: in these games. That the bad bullpen in these games
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 4: is also facing the much weaker offense, so I like
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 4: that as well, like Minnesota's is facing the Red Sox
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: and the White Sox are facing San Francisco, so hopefully
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: that can help. And we have rested bullpens, so that's
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: the other thing. The White Sox were off yesterday. They're
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: staying on the Pacific coast. They're coming down from Seattle,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: so the travel spot's not that bad.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 5: For the White Sox.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is returning home from a road trip, and
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: I generally kind of like unders when teams are turning
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 4: on from road trips because I think it affects their
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 4: hitting negatively.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 5: I think they could be distracted.
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: I know, San Francisco just got shut out in Arizona
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 4: and the rest of the road trip was in California.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: They're in LA and then they were in Sacramento, not
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: far from home, but they did go to Arizona. They've
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: been away from home for well over a week here,
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: so I think it's a negative spot for San Francisco
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: here returning home from the road, you know, they could
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 4: be distracted. They have to get back to home life whatever,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: So I think that's bad. So I think that helps
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: us out bullpen wise here because you get rested bullpens,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 4: so the bullpens can use whoever they want. The starting
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: pitching hopefully is gonna get us deep bur into the game,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 4: so we can avoid that as well a little bit.
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: White Sox bullpen hasn't been good, but they're not like
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: the most atrocious bullpen. They're twenty fourth, so we're gonna
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: suck it up and deal with it.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: The Giants are actually pretty good. The rank sixteenth of
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: their era is decent. Their bullpen's fairly good, and then
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: the offense is the White Socks have been good offensively,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 4: they're six, but I think the pitching can counter that
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 4: a little bit, and I'm not sure they're quite that
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: good like that would be a ridiculous turnaround from last year.
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 4: The Giants have been really, really bad offensively twenty eighth,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: so that helps us here, but I like to starting pitching.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 4: Davis Martin is pitching for the White Sox. He's having
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: a shockingly good season. I don't know what the deal
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: is here, but he's been really good at the age
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: of twenty nine. Somehow he flips a switch. He's got
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: a one point six to one e Ray point nine
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 4: to eight whip. Now, at some point he's gonna regress
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: a bit. I think that's inevitable because these are unsustainable numbers.
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 5: But he's been really good.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 4: He gets a pitcher friendly ballpark here by the way
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: to pitch in, and I think the matchup is gonna
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: be decent for him. He's been a little bit worse
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 4: on the road, but still one point nine to five
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray is not bad. The White Sox have won
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 4: all six of his last six outings. He's allowed no
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: more than one on run in any of them. He's
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: only allowed more than two once this year. In his
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 4: first start of the season allowed three. He's been dominating dude.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: This month. He has a when he's six to two
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, and he faced the Cubs in
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 4: his last outing. That is an offense that is not bad.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: So that was a good, really good outing from him.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: He's got that's in nineteen innings this month, thirteen hits allowed,
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 4: and his numbers over the course of the season are
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 4: pretty similar. He's got over one strike up er inning,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: significantly below one hittle upper inning, and a low walk.
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 5: Right Martin has been.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: Really good, dude, and he's going up against a lineup
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 4: that isn't very intimidating, and they do have a decent
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: ops against him, but it's a small sample. I still
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: think he's gonna do well here. He's got fifteen at
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 4: bats against him, so half of their lineup has still
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: not even seen him before.
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 5: Two strikeouts, four walks.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: I know these numbers aren't that good two sixty seven
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: batting average, seven to fifty four ohps, but it's a
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: small sample and he didn't face them this year, I'm
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 4: pretty sure. So those numbers were in the past when
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: Martin wasn't as good as he is right now. So
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: I think he is going to pitch well. And he's
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: going up against Trevor McDonald, who was having a good
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: season for San Francisco so far two point three seventy RRA,
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: one whip. He's been really good at home one point
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: two to nine Homie ra I know he's only made
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 4: three starts, but one of them was against the Dodgers
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 4: and he gave up three runs in that outing. I
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 4: know he was a bit too hittable, he gave up
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: nine hits, but he's not facing the Dodgers here, man.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: I know the White Sox have hit well, but they're
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: not the Dodgers. And his other two outings were good,
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: and one of them was at the A's Stadium most recently,
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: and he shut them down. So that's a good sign
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: that he pitched well in a very unfriendly stadium to pitchers.
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: His other outing was against San Diego, which you can't
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: really draw that much from that, but he pretty much
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 4: dominated them.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 5: He's been good overall though.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: He's got seventeen strikeouts, three walks, sixteen hits, a lot
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: of nineteen innings. Those numbers are all pretty strong, so
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: I like the way that he's started this season here.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 4: Two of his matchups were not easy, and he got
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 4: through those in pretty decent fashion. The White Sox have
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 4: never faced him before, so I think that's an extra
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: advantage to him. The picture should have an extra edge
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 4: against the lineup that hasn't seen him before.
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 5: I like this. We're going under and the money.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: Doesn't seem to totally agree. Ninety percent of tickets eighty
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: nine percent of the cash on the under, but we're
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: gonna do it. The money is also coming on the
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 4: White Sox, which I don't really disagree with that because again,
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's returning on from the road, which is not
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 4: a good situation. Fifty four percent of tickets on San Francisco,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 4: seventy two percent of the cash on the White Sox.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: This has taken way too long to get through the
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 4: baseball board here. The White Socks are actually favored, which
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: is crazy. The White Sox being a road favorite. That's insane.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 4: If I went White Sox, I would probably go first five.
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: But I don't love it because I think both starting
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: pictures should duel. Here, you might be able to get
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: a seven and a half. Now, let's take a look.
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: We might be able to upgrade this, at least as
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: far as getting a better number here. Let me the
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: number was like somewhat teetering on seven and a half.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 4: Obviously I would prefer the seven and a half. Let
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: me see what good Old Action Network has here. Yeah,
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: I see it at a decent price at minus the
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: one eighteen at the Lion book with the M and
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: I see minus one twenties at other books. Let's let's
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 4: go under the seven and a half. We'll pay for
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 4: the extra, we'll pay for the hook. I think it's
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: worth it minus one eighteen whatever minus. I think up
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: to minus one twenty it's worth it to get under
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 4: the hook. So that makes me, I don't know, that
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: makes me feel somewhat better as well there, But yeah,
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 4: I think it's worth paying for it because seven is
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 4: a key number when runs are gonna be potentially at
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 4: a premium here. That is not what I wanted to do.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 4: Hang on, Yeah, that's what I wanted, dude. I don't
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: know the timer was in on that, but there you go. Uh,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: under seven and a half is gonna be the play
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 4: there now, although I still agree with under seven as
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 4: well and White Sox again, you know, I don't see.
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 5: That much of a path for it.
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 4: But if you go White Sox, you do not want
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: to go full game in my just in my opinion,
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: because they are at a bullpend disadvantage.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 5: That would be the one thing I would say about that.
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I agree that the White Sox are in
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 4: the better spot, so I can see the argument for it,
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: all right, but.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 5: We're going on undering that one.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 4: Finally, we're through the baseball board there. I went fast
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: the other day and I went slow today, all right, wnba.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: All these games are on ie on whatever the hell
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: that is. Dallas at Atlanta's the first game up. I
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: considered this. I kind of like this game in the
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 4: Indiana game, but I did not put either of them
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 4: on my card. And Lanta's only played three games so far,
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: so they're fairly rested here. But they're coming up a
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: game against Vegas where they took their first loss. That
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 4: was a big game, dude. Vegas through the returning champs.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 4: They're a good team. Atlanta played them really, really competitively.
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 4: They lost by one at home, so that it could
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 4: be a hangover spot for them coming off of that.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 4: And the game before that, they beat Dallas, which is
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 4: who they're playing tonight. They went into Dallas and beat them,
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 4: I believe as an underdog, I want to say so
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: this could be a little bit of a quick revenge
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 4: spot for Dallas where Dallas might make some adjustments here.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: I know my mistake Atlanta was a one and a
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 4: half point favorite in that game. But you know, I
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: looked at the box scoring, I'm like, were there any
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: outliers here? The biggest outlier was a three point percentage.
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 4: Dallas only shot fifteen percent from three in the game.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: They only hit four threes. Atlanta wasn't good twenty seven percent,
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 4: but that's kind of more wnba ish.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 5: And they hit nine threes.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: So Atlanta was plus fifteen from three point range and
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: they only won by five. So that does tell you
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: something there that would have me looking towards Dallas in
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: this game. So Dallas lost to the team at home.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: There was a little bit of a reason there in
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 4: the boxer as far as why that happened. The three
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 4: point disparity was a little bit of an outlier in
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 4: my opinion. But Atlanta did dominate the rebounds because Atlanta
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: has Angel Reese now Man, so that's good for their rebounding.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 4: That worries me a little bit that Atlanta dominated the rebounding.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 4: Dallas is going to be like a more competitive team
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: this year, though. Atlanta's laying five and a half in
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 4: this one, which seems maybe a little insane. I mean,
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know, they were minus one and a half
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 4: on the road. That's indicating each home team basically has
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: a two point home court advantage.
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 4: I don't know how much home court WNBA teams get.
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 4: Two seems a little high, though, so that line seems
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 4: a little high to me. Dallas is coming up beating
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: Chicago though they just pulled off an upset two days ago.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 4: Or actually they might have been a slight favorite. Actually
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 4: they just beat Chicago though, decent team on the road. Still,
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: I like Dallas here. I don't think that's really gonna
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 4: set up a letdown from them. I think it's a
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 4: road revenge spot for Dallas. I think Atlanta's kind of
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: in a hangover spot coming off of what they just did.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 4: I would take the points with Dallas and this one.
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: The money seems like it is agreeing with me here
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: minus or you're getting plus five and a half here,
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 4: ninety tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on Dallas.
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: I almost want to do it.
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 4: I mean, maybe I've been too selective with the WNBA
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: because a lot of my leans have been right. I
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 4: like this one, you know, I don't know, I don't
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 4: know if it quite makes my card, But I mean
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 4: I know it does, and I'm not putting it on
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: my card, but yeah, I think that one might be
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: the best. Uh, that's my favorite of the WNBA plays.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: I think it's Dallas plus the points Golden State at Indiana.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: People are gonna look at this and want to take
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 4: Golden State because they're three and one, They're undefeated on
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 4: the road. How is a team like that getting six
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 4: and a half points from an Indiana team that has
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: a lesser record, Right, Well, the oddsmakers are telling you
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 4: Indiana is actually the better team here, even though I
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 4: know Golden State is improved.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 5: Golden State just upset the Liberty on the road.
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 4: That was a big upset. That was last night, I
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 4: believe as well. So if this spot is not good.
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 4: Although Golden State had a lot of days off before that,
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 4: so playing one game and then playing another game in
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: a back to back, it's not the same thing. That is,
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: the back to back is not the same in the
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: WNBA as it is in the NBA, because Golden State
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 4: had a lot of time off before yesterday, so they
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: shouldn't be that tired. But still, that was a huge
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: upset win for them on the road against one of
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 4: the best teams in the League. New York. They pulled
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 4: off a five and a half point up set there,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 4: so I could see this being a letdown for Golden
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: State here. You know, they shouldn't overlook Indiana, but I
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 4: think they might and might not overlook them. They might
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 4: be in a hangover spot. Having to get up like
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 4: that two games in a row might be difficult. You know,
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 4: Indiana's just sitting around at home. They played on Wednesday,
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 4: easily beat Portland. Not really a surprise there. I like
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 4: Indiana in this one, but I don't feel as strongly
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 4: about this as the other one.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I like, uh.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Dallas, and I like laying the points
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: with Indiana or Golden State. Looks public man, ninety one
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 4: percent tickets, only ninety percent of the cash on them,
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: Indiana laying six and a half.
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 5: That's what I would do.
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 4: I would lay the points with Indiana in that one,
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: all right, And then we have the final game is
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 4: the one that I have the least read on, even
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 4: the Oh, you're thinking, but it's a zigzag now, I
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 4: don't think it is, though, hold on, can I get
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 4: back to the schedule year? What the fuck's going on there?
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: It is Connecticut at Seattle. We won with Connecticut at
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: Seattle two days ago or whatever, and now Seattle's laying
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: about the same price here. So you would think, well,
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 4: this should be a zigzag, right. You know, Seattle lost
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 4: the previous game to this Connecticut team, so we should
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 4: zigzag this and play Seattle here, right. I don't think so,
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 4: because if you look at the box score here, I
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 4: know Connecticut they had to win on a three point
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: play at the very end of the game, like it
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 4: looked like they were gonna lose. They were down one
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: right at the end of the game. But Connecticut was
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 4: winning the majority of the game. Man, Connecticut was winning
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 4: seventy seven percent of the game and they had a
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 4: twelve rebound edge. They were plus twelve and rebounds. That
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 4: tells you Connecticut was the better team in the game.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 4: So I'm pretty sure Mi Handicap was right, even though
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 4: it got close at the end.
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 5: Connecticut also had a big free throw.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 4: Disparity go against them in this game. Seattle went to
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: the line twenty five times and they hit eleven more
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 4: free throws in the game and still lost. That is
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: not a good sign for Seattle. So Connecticut had more
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: field goal attempts in the game. Connecticut shot terribly from
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: the free throw line as well, and still won the game.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 4: So I do not want to turn around and play
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 4: Seattle here. I don't Connecticut was the better team in
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 4: the game, and in fact, they were better in the
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: game by.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 5: More than what the final score looks.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 4: So I think I actually liked Connecticut again in this game,
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 4: and you're getting about the same price plus one and
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 4: a half here. I think I would lean to Connecticut again,
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 4: but that's my weakest opinion in all three of these.
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 4: I think I like Dallas plus the points the best there.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: Haven't added it to my card, though. I think I'm
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 4: gonna stay off of it. But you know, maybe I'm
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 4: being too selective. And of course I'm gonna be pissed
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 4: when my baseball totals lose and then that stuff wins. Dude, baseball,
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: I just never feel that confident about it.
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 5: And baseball has.
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 4: Been going well this season, so I don't know. Hopefully
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 4: it continues.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: We have a hockey. We have the Western Conference Finals
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: Vegas and Colorado. Colorado's at home. They're the better team, obviously,
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 4: they do not want to go down two here. I
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 4: have to go to Vegas because Vegas is better at home.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: Other I mean, you know whatever, Brent Burns here great
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 4: with all his teeth missing.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 5: That is a crazy picture there.
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 4: Anyway, Colorado lost obviously four to two years, you would think, well,
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 4: this is gonna be a bounce back. They're the better
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 4: team there at home. They know they can't go down two. Yeah,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: I agree with all that. I'm gonna lean Colorado slightly here,
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 4: but I got some issues with it.
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 5: If you look at what.
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 4: Happened in this game. I mean, the final score wasn't
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: that misleading? There was an empty net goal at the end.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 4: Vegas was out to a three to nothing lead. Early
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: they did score a power play goal. Colorado also scored
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 4: a power play goal, so you take those in the
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: empty net goal away. It was what two to one
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 4: Vegas I think would have been the score. Colorado outshot Vegas,
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 4: so they did have more scoring opportunities. So yeah, that
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 4: would be an indicator towards playing Colorado here, because that
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 4: means the score was a little bit misleading. So yeah,
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 4: I agree with that, but Vegas out physicaled Colorado, and
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 4: that worries me a little bit with playing Colorado here.
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 4: The Vegas had more hits and they won a large
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 4: percentage of the faceoffs fifty seven percent, So it's kind
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 4: of weird that Colorado had more offensive possession. It looks
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: like usually the team that wins the face offs, that's
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: gonna lead to more offensive possessions. But whatever, so I
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 4: got some concerns with it. I also am concerned with
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 4: Colorado laying a huge price here, although it's similar to
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 4: what they were laying in the first game. I lead Colorado,
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 4: but it's not gonna make my card. And then of
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 4: course I did point out, you know, the regular season,
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 4: I think Vegas split the regular season series with Colorado
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: or whatever. But I did point out that Colorado was
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: better or actually I think what was actually let me look,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna look real quick, because I forget hold on, No,
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 4: Colorado was two and one, my mistake, but I looked
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 4: into it. In Colorado, Uh, they were the better team
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: in the first two games, and then the last game
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 4: was when Colorado already had theirs, already had the number
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 4: one seed wrapped up. I think the one that Vegas
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 4: actually won was a meaningless game for Colorado. So Colorado
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 4: is still the better team. Like I kind of I
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 4: still expect them to win the series. But you know
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: that when I filled out my bracket, I had Vegas
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 4: winning this series because I thought there was actually a
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 4: little bit of value there. The money is coming in
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: on Colorado a little bit here, eighty nine percent of tickets,
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 4: ninety percent of the cash on them. You're gonna have
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 4: to do like a split bet if you want Colorado
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 4: partially on the puck line, partially on the money line,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 4: Like make your own minus one puck line here. That's
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 4: what I would do, but it's not gonna make my card.
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 4: And then the under is getting some action as well.
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 5: The totals at six juice.
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 4: To the over. Obviously, I don't want to do that.
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 4: I'm worried about the empty nets. The first game landed
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: exactly six, although it's because there was an empty net.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 4: The first game definitely should have gone under. But I
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 4: don't like the under as much now, right Like I
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 4: liked the under in that first game because Colorado had
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 4: more of a layoff. But now these teams just played
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 4: two days ago, so I think that impacts the deepfense
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 4: is more negatively, you know.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 5: So we'll see what happens.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 4: But Vegas, you know they're rioting the hot hand with
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 4: Carter Hart in net man, the guy who I think
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 4: was kind of falsely accused of that stuff that he
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 4: was accused of. But whatever, Howard has been really good
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: throughout the playoffs. But that doesn't mean it's gonna continue.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 4: But sometimes teams they get a hot goalie and they
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 4: just ride that hot goalie.
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 4: Those are my thoughts on that, but I don't want
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: to play and I'm also not gonna have a play
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: in the NBA game which is Oklahoma City San Antonio.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 5: They're only they're playing with just one day off here.
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of times in the NBA you'll
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 4: see two days off when the teams are switching venues.
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 4: But I think because Oklahoma City and San Antonio are
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: not that far distance wise, I think they just were like, whatever,
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 4: one day off, get the series done. So this is
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 4: at San Antonio. Oklahoma City evened up the series with
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: a winning game two. San Antonio did win four out
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 4: of the five regular season matchups, so the one of
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 4: them was the Cup where I'm not sure if OKAC
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 4: cared that much about the Cup, you know, I think
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 4: there was one other game where there. I forget there
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 4: might have been one other game that didn't really matter
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 4: as much, but I can't remember exactly what it was.
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 4: I think there was one game where Oklahoma City didn't
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 4: play their starters or something, but I forget that might
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: be wrong. This game is gonna be really really hard
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: to predict, though, because of the injury situations here. So
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: san Antonio Darn Fox hasn't played yet in the series.
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 4: He's been a game time decision both games so far,
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 4: but they decided to not play him. I think he's
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 4: going to come back here now that the series is
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: even and they kind of need him because san Antonio
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 4: has been using Castle as a point guard. It hasn't
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: worked out well, even though I don't really even think
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 4: san Antonio has like a true point guard, which is
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 4: kind of a problem. But I think Fox will return here,
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 4: especially because Dylan Harper is hurt. Now he's listed as
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: a game type decision, but he got hurt in the
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 4: third quarter. I think of the last game, and I
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: don't know from what I could tell, it didn't look great,
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 4: So I think Harper is probably gonna miss this game,
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 4: would be my guess. I think Fox probably will come back,
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 4: especially because san Antonio needs guard play man, and if
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 4: they're gonna lose Harper, they got to bring Fox back.
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 4: I'm kind of surprised he hasn't played yet in the series.
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 4: But because san Antonio is gonna do that shakeup, you know,
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: grab a brush and put on a little makeup, I
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 4: don't I don't know if I like that really like,
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: I think that's gonna be a bit of a chemistry problem,
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. Like whenever a like a
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: key player comes back, that can mess with your chemistry
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 4: a little bit. Even though I would say that when
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 4: you have an injured player go down a lot of
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: times the team plays harder. But if Fox is coming
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 4: back into the lineup, needs a key piece of the lineup,
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 4: I think that's gonna be negative for san Antonio's chemistry.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 5: So that's a little bit of an issue.
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 4: San Antonio, by the way, is very good at home
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 4: thirty two and eight. Oklahoma City was good on the
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: road thirty and ten, but they're better at home. Uh,
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 4: still really good on the road, but san Antonio is
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 4: better at home. So there is a bit of a
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 4: home advantage here for Santa Antonium. And speaking of injuries,
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: Jalen Williams got hurt again for Oklahoma City. He tweaked
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 4: his hamstring, which is not good. He is one of
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 4: their key pieces, even though I know Oklahoma City is
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: a really deep team, which I think is gonna help
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: them out because you know how san Antonio played their
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 4: guys in that first game, the double overtime game. San
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 4: Antonio played their guys a lot of minutes, dude, So
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma City might wind up winning this series just because
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 4: they have more depth. That might wind up being the
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 4: difference where they're gonna be not as tired later in
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 4: the series. Here, Jalen Williams, I don't know if he's
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 4: gonna play or not, dude. Okay, seem might not play
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 4: him because they are able to overcome that injury.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 5: They use I think A. J. Mitchell is his name.
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 4: I think they use him more in place of Williams,
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 4: and he's been pretty good.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 5: But Mitchell also got hurt.
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 4: Near the end of that game. He landed weird on
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: his leg. He had it looked like a hamstring thing
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 4: as well. He had a weird issue there. But I
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 4: think he stayed in the game and he not on
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 4: the injury report, so I think He's probably gonna be
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 4: in the game here, but I would expect if I
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: was gonna guess, I think Jalen Williams will miss this game.
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 4: I think Harper is gonna miss the game for San Antonio,
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 4: and I think Fox will come back. That would be
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 4: my guess, but who really knows. So that makes this
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 4: game a little bit difficult to handicap. So I'm not
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 4: gonna play the game if we try to find like
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 4: any you know, outliers in the previous game, you know,
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 4: like what happened in this game, okay see was the
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 4: better team in the game. For the most part, there wasn't.
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 4: There weren't really too many outliers here. The teams were
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 4: similar in shooting percentages, pretty similar from three point range,
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 4: not a huge free throw disparity. San Antonio did have
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: twenty one turnovers though, so that's kind of the one
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 4: big reason they lost the game was because of the turnovers,
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: which gave okay see a lot more field goal attempts
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 4: in the game. So San Antonio might be able to
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 4: clean that up. But again, I told you, they don't
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 4: really have an actual ball distributor here, so I don't know,
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 4: But I don't expect san Antonio to be negative eleven
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 4: in the turnover department again at home, so I think
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 4: they might be able to fix that. And san Antonio
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 4: did out rebound OKAC again, but they out rebounded OKAYC
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: by twenty one in the first game and in game
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 4: two it was only by four. So Oklahoma City is
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: figuring some things out here. Man, They're figuring out what
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 4: to do against Wemby. Here's the thing, ched Holmgren cannot
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 4: match up against Wemby. Oklahoma City should know that. Based
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 4: on what happened during the regular season. Holmgren had huge
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 4: issues with Wemby. Oklahoma City needs to not use him
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 4: against Wemby. And finally Oklahoma City found an answer with Hartenstein.
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 4: They used him in the game. That's what they needed
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 4: to do. He looked good in the game. He can.
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 4: It seems like he's a better matchup for Oklahoma City
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 4: against Wemby. Nobody can really match up against Wemby but
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 4: Hart and stein Hart and seeing every pronounce his name,
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 4: he obviously is the better approach for Oklahoma City. They
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 4: cannot use homegrun against him. So those are my thoughts
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 4: on it. As far as the market in this game,
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 4: money is indicating towards OKC. Believe it or not, the
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 4: public is leaning towards the Spurs because again, the Spurs
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 4: are flashy. You know, the public loves Wemby, but SGA,
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, he's doing some things that not
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 4: many people have done, like scoring wise, So I don't know.
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 4: He seems like he's just going under the radar. Now,
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 4: sixty one percent of tickets on San Antonio, sixty percent
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 4: of the cash San Antonio is a one and a
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 4: half two point favorite here, which to me that seems
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 4: like really a bit of an over adjustment because if
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma City was six and a half at home, this
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 4: line should be a little bit closer to.
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 5: A pick him.
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 4: I think, like a one point favorite, maybe one way
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 4: or the other. So I think there might be a
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 4: little bit of line value maybe taking Okay see as
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 4: a dog here. I know San Antonio seems to have
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 4: some matchup edges here, but you know, also it's hard
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 4: to predict because we don't know who's playing. The money
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 4: is indicating towards the over as well, seventy eight percent
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 4: of tickets on the under, seventy five percent of the
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 4: cash on the under. Game two I'm pretty sure did
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 4: go over, but I wouldn't necessarily disagree with the over
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 4: all though the total is up already to to eighteen
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 4: and a half, which I think is higher than where
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 4: it was in the last couple of games, so I
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 4: don't really want to do that either. But because these
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 4: teams are unrested and they only have one day off
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 4: between these two games as well, they're playing three games
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 4: in five days here and over makes more sense in
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 4: a setup like this. So those are my thoughts on
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 4: I don't have I don't really have good opinions here.
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 4: And then you know, there is the thing swirling around
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 4: about if you saw SGA's postgame interview at the end
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 4: of Game two, people think that he insulted Heart and Steam,
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 4: but I think he didn't understand what he was being asked,
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 4: like because he couldn't hear like the reporter asked him
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 4: the first question she asked him, he had to ask
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 4: her to repeat the question because he didn't know what
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 4: she said. So I think he just couldn't hear her
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 4: that well because everybody was being loud and whatever. Maybe
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 4: he has a hearing loss he has toenitis from going
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 4: to three eleven, like me. But people were saying, like
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 4: he was asking this other question about Heart and Stein,
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 4: and I don't know. He said something to the effect
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 4: of like we need to do better or something like that,
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 4: and people thought that he was saying that about Heart
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 4: and Stein. But I think he didn't understand the question.
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 4: I think he was saying in general that they need
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 4: to do better as a team. So I think it's
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 4: a non issue. I don't know why people are talking
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 4: about that. I don't think it's a problem at all.
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 4: Like I think it's really just a matter of like,
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 4: you know, like he's just you know, you just talk
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 4: to talk to your team and you good, bro.
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, you know, I'm not a big deal.
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 5: I don't think it's a big deal. But yeah, I
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 5: don't know.
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 4: You need you need to have the narratives, right, You
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 4: need to have the drama. That's that's what sells man.
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 4: But that's gonna do it. My plays today are three
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 4: baseball totals. We're going over nine and a half in Cardinals, Reds,
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 4: under seven and a half in Twins, Red Sox, and
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 4: hopefully we adde the Minnesota Bullpen and the under seven
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 4: and a half in White Sox and giants as well.
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 4: I almost said forty nine ers. If you want to
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 4: go first five on those two unders, you can.
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 4: I don't disagree with that either, but those are my plays,
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 4: you know. I like that we get the hook on
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 4: the seven and a half at least, so I like
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 4: that number a little bit better. Hopefully the starters can
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 4: get us a little bit deeper into the game and
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 4: we can avoid the bullpens a little bit there. But
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 4: that's gonna do it. Learn a toad on Twitter helps
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 4: me out. You can subscribe to me there. Learn a
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 4: toad on Instagram for short form content here, like can
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 4: subscribe to this channel here.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 5: Let's boost it.
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 4: We're obviously really hot right now, as you can see there.
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 4: I don't even really believe it, but I'm gonna do
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 4: my best to try to keep it going.
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 5: Hopefully we can.
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna be pissed when my WNBA leen comes through,
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 4: but I don't know, man, I'm being super selective.
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 5: So we'll see what else do we got here. We're
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 5: on audio.
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 4: You can listen into the show on audio, Apple, Spotify, spreaker.
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 5: That helps me out. Covered in yuke on YouTube you
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 5: can check that out.
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 4: And I've been doing some more Yuke covers. I gotta
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 4: put my recent one up there. Patreon dot com, slash
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 4: and learn to Toad. You can subscribe there. I will
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 4: try to get to some requests that you have for
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 4: yuke stuff. I have one that's in the pipeline for
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 4: one of the one of the guys that subscribes to me.
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 4: It'll be I think the third one that I've done
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 4: for him, Charles. I'm gonna have to get to some
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 4: of yours as well. I gotta figure something out. Charles
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 4: is out there somewhere. But yes, Patreon dot com, slash
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 4: and learn to Toad you get a bonus Yuke feed.
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 5: There as well. What else?
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 4: So I have to plug Loser casts every Tuesday night
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 4: and the Giants g Spot podcast. That's gonna do it.
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 4: Thanks everybody, Happy weekend. Let's kick off the weekend right.
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 4: The last couple of weekends have been really good for us.
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 4: I think we did have one bad Friday in the
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 4: mix there, but we'll see. I want to continue it
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 4: man as as best as we can. Peace.
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 2: Your name.
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 1: Steal me something to somebody for show to put the
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 1: glass down baby, look at me.
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on nothing.
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 3: Nice, now, hold on, hold on, let me pull you.
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 3: That bites hard, but it don't.
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now