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2023 Crop Tour Day 3 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_02: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_02: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: Tonight is August 9th.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_02: I've got Cori and Jace here.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: We just wrapped up the third day of the crop tour.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_02: So tell us a little bit about our uh route today, Jace, and then we'll get into some of the conditions.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so we started in central Indiana and made our way over to Ohio.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: We looped up a little a little ways north there, and then we went back east, and we ended up in northeastern Indiana, and we got rained out there.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: So tomorrow I guess we'll do a couple of yield checks here and then we'll finish up the Indiana state yield.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_02: Awesome.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_02: So let's start with conditions here.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_02: So we started kind of western central part of Indiana this morning.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_02: Tell us a little bit, Corey, about what you saw in the central part of Indiana and some of the trends that you noticed today.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, first off, the first thing you really noticed is the drought conditions, they're just improving and getting better and better the farther east we go.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_02: Kind of away from Missouri, it seemed like it got a little bit better.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: So drought map wasn't lying by any means, started to improve in conditions quite a bit by the time we got to the eastern side of Indiana.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, definitely, definitely.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: There was a little firing up that we noticed in central Indiana, but it was improving a lot from the recent rains and the cooler's temp that we've been recently getting.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: And the weather forecast is only looking good for finishing up those yields.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_02: So Indiana we did see kind of central part to the eastern side.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: We did see some firing up on the bottom of the crops.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_02: We didn't see a ton of tip back, I would say.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_02: We saw a little bit here and there, but nothing major.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um so that's something to take into consideration, I guess, on the central part of Indiana's yield expectations and kind of towards the eastern side of the state.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_02: But like you said, awesome recent rains and then uh pretty good forecast going forward too.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: So uh from what we saw here from the lower part of Indiana, it's improving.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: Any damage seems to be getting getting limited at this point.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_02: And when I say damage, it wasn't that extreme by any means.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_02: It just wasn't perfect uh to a T.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: So uh nothing to really complain about, but uh just a few observations that we made for sure.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_02: Getting into Ohio, I would say uh it was a little bit more interesting based upon it, it was the first time we've really seen an area that showed a little bit more difficult uh planning conditions.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_02: You could tell based upon height, consistency, uh you'd see one field on one side of the road uh not even pollinated yet.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_02: The other side uh it'd be pretty brown silk by that point.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_02: So a little inconsistency and maturity in very close areas, a lot of up and down and height.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_02: So we did see some uh disturbing uh planning differences there, I think, that took place and early moisture early on, and uh something that will definitely impact yield a little bit, but like I said, that was pretty spotty, like the firing up that we saw in the central part of Indiana, it was very minimal.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: You saw it for a small area here or there, same with Ohio too, it was here or there, pretty inconsistent, nothing majorly to write home about.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's something worth noting uh about the Ohio crop too.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_02: So it's gonna keep those areas from records or uh, you know, some areas maybe get right up to it.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_02: Uh if you got a 500-acre farm that's sitting right at the wrong spot, then sure you could have been the unlucky one that got hit.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_02: So it's been very inconsistent on the trip in in general.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, you you you have a really great area, then you have a couple smaller areas that have struggled, missed rains, or had struggles planning uh early on.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um so it is variable uh in that manner, but I don't think there's been anywhere that's been a disaster area for sure besides northeastern Missouri, and even they've got a lot of rain recently as well, but it just can't clear it up, so too late for them.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_02: But Ohio here, we're gonna release their final yields tonight that we got through uh just in a little bit here, but we're gonna wrap up with when we started heading back west, Jace.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_02: What did you see out of uh northeastern Indiana?
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean the crop conditions here still look pretty good.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: They're having less of the maturity issues that we saw in Ohio and a lot more even crops, but and everything, I mean, aside from Missouri, everything if they continue to get timely rains will end up looking pretty good.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: That's a good point.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_02: We're receiving some incredibly nice rains right now, pretty much everywhere on the crop tour.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_02: Has there been a field we went in yet that really didn't get our shoes wet in one sense or another?
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, pretty much everywhere we've gone to in the last couple days has got rain, uh, especially in the last week.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_02: Uh pretty much the entire, you know, south and eastern corridor has got uh major rainfall, which has been uh I think reflected in the uh in the uh grain markets here real recently.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: So when I look at the uh, you know, we got rained out even tonight before our last stop here, we couldn't make it.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it just rained real hard through northern Indiana, kind of ended up by Lafayette.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_02: So uh that's kind of the update, I guess, with where we sit at the end of the day.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: But Ohio here, I came out with a 186 today.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_02: Uh local uh or some of the other competition, 190, 191 for some of their estimates.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: I think that'll be held back a little bit based upon some of their early planning problems.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_02: But I do think that uh one of the things I've noticed in the trend with the states we've gone through so far, mainly I would say Nebraska and Ohio on these first couple estimates is that it would have been a lot different estimate if I would have drove through, let's say, uh before the end of July.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_02: Like even if we went through, you know, that really hot week and I had to keep it in my mind that we really had to get perfect weather and perfect rains from here on out to make this crop, uh, it would have been trending a lot worse.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_02: Now, when we go forward, so the samples and estimates and stuff aren't gonna change a whole lot based upon uh you know a week or two's rains by any means or perfect conditions right now, but they will in the long term with Phil.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um that's something to keep in mind that these numbers, I think both Nebraska, like if you saw that over a 180, I wouldn't be surprised at all by the end of this with the weather they're getting, and then Ohio as well.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_02: You know, you probably do push that up towards 190 if things do stay perfect the rest of the way through.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: And same on soybean yields, it's been really inconsistent, uh up and down here and there, but really for August, beans are made in August.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: We're getting perfect weather, so I'm uh excited to see where that's gonna end up uh being across the United States, but really perfect weather.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: I can't stress it enough through uh the Corn Belt the first three days of this trip that we've experienced.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_02: Any other final thoughts from you two on this trip?
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: I can't really think of anything major.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: You seem to cover it all like you always do, Mike.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Corey.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we're gonna start off tomorrow in northwestern Indiana, hit most of uh northern Illinois, get you a yield estimate for that tomorrow and Indiana, and uh then we'll end up uh in Cedar Rapids with Mike Fitzgerald uh tomorrow night for an update there, and then uh that'll be day four.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, guys.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_02: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_02: Please reach out to us at professionaleggmarketing.com.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_02: It's released every Friday.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_02: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: See you next time.