Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Are Canadians behind Carney's decision to walk away from trade talks

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Are Canadians behind Carney's decision to walk away from trade talks · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: A brand new poll suggests Canadians are overwhelmingly in favour
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: of Prime Minister Mark Carney's decision to call off trade
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: negotiations late Friday night. New numbers from the Angus Reid
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  Speaker 1: Institute suggest three quarters of Canadians think the Prime Minister
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  Speaker 1: made the right choice to walk away from the negotiating table.
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  Speaker 1: For more on this, I'm joined now by the President
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  Speaker 1: of the Angus Reid Institute and long-time friend.
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  Speaker 2: Of the show, of course, Shachi Curl. Nice to see you.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks for coming. AGP, thanks.
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  Speaker 1: Love to have you in person. That's a nice treat
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  Speaker 1: for us. And you guys work fast. You already have
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  Speaker 1: some data on how Canadians feel about this decision to
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  Speaker 1: walk away from the negotiating table. Tell me what you've
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  Speaker 1: heard so far.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, what were you doing on Saturday night?
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  Speaker 1: I was here, actually.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly. It's been a weekend for all of us.
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  Speaker 3: So this, we really wanted to get the first take,
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  Speaker 3: that initial reaction. And the initial reaction really demonstrates to
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  Speaker 3: me That elbows-up mentality that we have been seeing for
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  Speaker 3: the better part of 18 months wasn't just theoretical, that
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  Speaker 3: Canadians are still very much in that mode, when you
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  Speaker 3: have got three-quarters, 76 percent of Canadians saying it was
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  Speaker 3: the right decision to walk away, when 69 percent, almost
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  Speaker 3: seven in 10 Canadians, tell us that Prime Minister Carney
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  Speaker 3: showed strength by making the decision that he did. It's
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  Speaker 3: a pretty strong endorsement and it does show, and I
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  Speaker 3: think I used the word resolve in that headline, it
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  Speaker 3: shows that Canadians have some metal and some resolve around
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  Speaker 3: this that didn't just disintegrate when the stuff hit the fan.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, so how are Canadians, you mentioned this, but how
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  Speaker 1: are they assessing the Prime Minister personally? Because he's been
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  Speaker 1: out front on this, he's been the main messenger. If
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  Speaker 1: we're to believe his timeline of events, it was his
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  Speaker 1: call to walk away from the negotiating table. How are
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  Speaker 1: Canadians feeling about the Prime Minister's handling of this file?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it certainly shows that he's operating from a place
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  Speaker 3: of strength and with some mandate at the moment in
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  Speaker 3: terms of the way Canadians are viewing it.
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  Speaker 2: So we've watched his.
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  Speaker 3: Trend line, both on approval and on performance on this
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  Speaker 3: particular issue, go up and down and up and down.
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  Speaker 3: It was down about a year ago and then not
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  Speaker 3: a lot was going on and then.
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  Speaker 2: It started to trend back up.
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  Speaker 3: But again, I would say that 70% saying that, yes,
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  Speaker 3: this was a show of strength, that he's handled the
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  Speaker 3: crisis well, those are pretty strong endorsements.
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  Speaker 1: The Prime Minister, of course, has promised to hit back
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  Speaker 1: at the Americans and levy dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. goods
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  Speaker 1: that are coming into this country. It's a policy choice, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: designed to punish the Americans, but there could be some
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  Speaker 1: effects on our country as well, right? Things could be
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  Speaker 1: more expensive here in Canada as a result. How do
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  Speaker 1: people feel about the prospect... of counter-tariffs on American goods.
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  Speaker 2: Sure, and that's a whole other narrative.
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  Speaker 3: So you've got the surface-level feelings, and then you've got
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  Speaker 3: the undercurrents. And the undercurrents are one of apprehension, unease,
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  Speaker 3: sort of a creeping dread. The fact that two in
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  Speaker 3: five Canadians are telling us that they're worried about the
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  Speaker 3: loss of their own job, and about just over 10%
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  Speaker 3: say that.
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  Speaker 2: They're really worried about that. Most naturally, those are folks
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  Speaker 2: in the most affected sectors.
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  Speaker 3: So that tells us things are, you know, there's, this
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  Speaker 3: isn't just like, yeah, sure, it's fine.
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  Speaker 2: Stick it to them. It's, we know that this is
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  Speaker 2: going to hurt.
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  Speaker 3: From a consumer perspective, 90% of Canadians saying that they
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  Speaker 3: expect this to hit their wallets in terms of the
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  Speaker 3: costs of goods and services. So there is a pain point,
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  Speaker 3: a pretty strong pain point that Canadians are bracing for
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  Speaker 3: and expecting.
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  Speaker 1: Do you notice a partisan divide in any of these
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  Speaker 1: data points? I mean, I'm sure liberal voters in particular
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  Speaker 1: are lining up behind the prime minister. But how do conservatives,
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  Speaker 1: NDP block voters feel about the decision to walk away,
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  Speaker 1: the decision not to take a deal like the one
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  Speaker 1: the Americans were offering? Are you noticing some sort of
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  Speaker 1: split in these numbers?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the political numbers are really important within
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  Speaker 3: the context of the regional numbers.
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  Speaker 2: So let's unpack both.
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  Speaker 3: So on the political level, yes, this is a power
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  Speaker 3: and politics show.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to talk domestic politics. You're absolutely right.
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  Speaker 3: Nearly all liberal voters are like, yes, this was the
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  Speaker 3: right choice. But so do NDP voters say that. A significant,
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  Speaker 3: I think, a majority of block voters also saying that.
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  Speaker 3: What's really interesting about the conservative vote is they're evenly divided.
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  Speaker 3: So just over 40 percent say it was the right decision,
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  Speaker 3: but just over 40 percent say.
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  Speaker 2: It was the wrong decision.
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  Speaker 3: But when you earn a split with conservative voters and
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  Speaker 3: it's—you're not the same party, it's not that government, that
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  Speaker 3: government has earned a win if half of opposition voters
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  Speaker 3: are lining up behind you. So that creates all kinds
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  Speaker 3: of challenges for the opposition leader, who is really kind
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  Speaker 3: of any opposition leader in this situation would be struggling
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  Speaker 3: to find a coherent and grabby line of attack or
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  Speaker 3: of criticism on this. But it's especially challenging for Pierre Poiliev,
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  Speaker 3: because no matter what he says, he's going to lose
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  Speaker 3: half his base on this, based on where they are today.
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  Speaker 3: The regional story is also so important, JP, because It's
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  Speaker 3: rare that we see Canadians coast to coast to coast
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  Speaker 3: saying that they are behind the prime minister, behind the
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  Speaker 3: government's decision, behind negotiators' decision to walk away. You have
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  Speaker 3: like low points of about 60% in Alberta. It's a
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  Speaker 3: little bit lower in Saskatchewan, maybe not surprisingly, given that
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  Speaker 3: those are the conservative heartlands.
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  Speaker 2: But again— majorities everywhere, it also.
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  Speaker 3: Really makes it super important and interesting as to how
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  Speaker 3: the premiers are going to continue to.
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  Speaker 2: React and respond.
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  Speaker 3: Because when big, big segments of their own populations are saying, no,
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  Speaker 3: this was the right decision, they don't have a lot
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  Speaker 3: of room to go rogue off of the Team Canada approach.
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  Speaker 3: And we're going to have more data on that, I think, tomorrow.
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  Speaker 1: Have you ever seen such support for something like this? Like,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, you're recounting like kind of strong support across
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  Speaker 1: party lines, across provinces, every region of the country kind
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  Speaker 1: of lining up behind the prime minister's decision here. Can
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  Speaker 1: you remember an issue where there has been that much
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  Speaker 1: support for one single decision like this?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, people have asked me that. And it's an anomaly.
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  Speaker 2: It's same, same, and it's different.
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  Speaker 3: So the same, same is the crisis aspect of this.
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  Speaker 3: In times of crisis, whether it's 9-11, whether it's COVID,
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  Speaker 3: COVID was almost seven years ago.
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  Speaker 2: What is that even? Or whether it's this.
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  Speaker 3: In times of crisis, we do see people pull together
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  Speaker 3: and we see them pull behind the leadership of the day,
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  Speaker 3: whether it's premiers, municipal leaders or the prime minister or
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  Speaker 3: the government of the day. But what also happens is
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  Speaker 3: that the longer a crisis goes on and becomes normalized,
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  Speaker 3: you start to see people pulling apart and those regular
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  Speaker 3: divisions come through. What is an anomaly with this is
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  Speaker 3: the level of consistency.
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  Speaker 2: And I'll come back to where I started.
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  Speaker 3: The level of consistency that Canadians have had around saying
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  Speaker 3: we want to take a hard line, a hard approach
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  Speaker 3: on this.
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  Speaker 2: Again, it's not theoretical. It's not just emotional. This is
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  Speaker 2: where they are. Okay, we'll leave it there.
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  Speaker 1: Shachi Curl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.
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  Speaker 2: Nice to see you.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming in.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks, JP.