Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Meeting vs Crypto LIVE!🔴Jerome Powell Interest Rate Decision🚀

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Fed Meeting vs Crypto LIVE!🔴Jerome Powell Interest Rate Decision🚀 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: FOMC of course is coming in hot today will be
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: breaking it all down for you, giving chair pals comments
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: along with other stuff that we give you some guidance
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: into the market.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: My name is Paul Bayer.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Welcome back in the tech path and of course thanks
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: for coming into the lot to day. I want to
• 0:22
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  Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna try this right now or on screen
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• 1:04
  Speaker 2: So either way works. Check it out. See what you
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: guys think let's get into it today.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Of course, President Trump is now beginning a press conference
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: as we speak right now, and mainly this is i
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: think probably preparatory for what's happening in Switzerland. We'll get
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to that in a second. But the big key, of
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: course is that we do have a potential kind of
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: get to know each other conference with China and Trump
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: is also announced earlier this week and today that there's
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: going to be a big announcement.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe this is the one.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: We'll keep a very close eye on what that is
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: so we can give you guys updated And of course
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: we will be going live to the FOMC meeting here
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: in a bit as well. We'll cover that, and of course,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: chair pals conversation and discussion with the press is usually
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: the telling sign of the indicator to come and right
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: now when you look at June and after obviously the
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: May date here, but if you look at June and
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: possibly July as a potential rate cut, many people are
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: still looking at some other alternatives out there in terms
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: of schedule. If you look at the potential of what
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: he's going to talk about, well you have to kind
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: of look at a few things everybody's kind of pointing
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: at inflation forty plus times, but tariffs that's the big one.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: And of course, good afternoon.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: I love it.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: You know, polymarket, you can just bet on anything, just anything,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: anything you.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Want to get unknown. I love it.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Suit what tie he's going to wear it today? Let's
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: go into this zero had just hit on this and
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: this is China Central Bank is now cutting key rates,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: injecting one trillion in YU on three hours after agreeing
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: to trade talk.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: So that's a big deal.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: They're trying to prop up the economy and I think
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: this is giving and I would agree. I think this
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: is going to give the CCP a little bit of
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: an ammunition in the negotiation side of things, because they
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: need to support the economy that is having some challenges
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: obviously for the limited amount of exports that are being done,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So all of that starting to play in it. We
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: have definitely a global negotiation.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Going on right now.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: The Fed also quietly injected twenty billion into treasury. So
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: what it means for crypto a little bit. People are saying, well,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: this could have a couple of effects for crypto investors.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: It's not just a footnote. It could be a turning point,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the FED faces a dilemma. It can't openly cut rates
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: without spooking the markets, and it can't print new money
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: without risking trust in the dollar. So instead it just
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: opts for a quieter tool, purchasing short term treasuries. So
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: with that you look at similar purchases that occurred during COVID.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And the other factor is is that this being that
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: it's going to strengthen alternative assets and I think that's
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: where you get a little bit of a move on
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: bitcoin that we saw. I think the situation on bitcoin
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: has been more driven off of just the discussion with
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Scott Bessen and the potential of the Chinese coming to
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: a deal. And I know it's still early, but the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: point is that everybody has to understand and I know
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: you're probably saying, well, Paul, deal's not done yet. Who
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: even knows they may walk away from the table. Point
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: is they are on the path to negotiation. I cannot
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: believe that they won't come away with something, if at anything,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: at least an interim opportunity to get trades actions active
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: again for both the US and Canada. Bitcoin dominance also
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: is starting to move pretty heavily and if you look
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: at history and the comparison of all coin season, mean
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: people would look at that and say, well, you know,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: if dominance is continuing to go in this direction, the
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: likelihood of that seventy one percent marker is the one
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: we got to watch. We're only six percent away and
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: if that occurs, then is that the green box going
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: forward for all coin season? Do you even believe in
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: cycles anymore? Let me know in the comments. Make sure
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: and drop some questions over on the QE. We'll try
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: to get to some of those, maybe by the end
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: of the show. If anything, I'll pick up a few
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: as we go and subscribe to the show if you're
• 5:06
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• 5:10
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• 5:12
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• 5:19
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• 5:22
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: CNBC came out and.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Said there could be a lot of people looking at
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: fed rate cuts. Yes, to stimulate, but is that really
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: a good thing after all?
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: I think the Fed's in a tough spot. What I
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: would say is, I don't think the Fed's going to
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: be cutting rates. It obviously can cut rates for one
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: of two reasons, either confidence that inflation is coming down
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: or concerned about that company. Yeah, but I don't think
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: the FED is going to be cutting rates in twenty
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: twenty five because of confidence that inflation is coming down.
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: You don't know, so any rate cuts will be bad news.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: That's a very interesting perspective. So if markets are up
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: right now because they think the FED is coming to
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: the rescue, that's a mislike you.
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: Know what the res that it is bad news, it's
• 6:08
  Speaker 6: a miscount.
• 6:08
  Speaker 7: I would not read.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: Into that anything positive that would against the FED is
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: concerned about the statement.
• 6:13
  Speaker 8: I mean, in a perfect world, wouldn't you want rates
• 6:15
  Speaker 8: as low as you could get them if there was
• 6:17
  Speaker 8: no inflation, just to spur activity and just you know,
• 6:21
  Speaker 8: mortgages and sure, yes, and it even helps inflation when
• 6:25
  Speaker 8: rates are down.
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: I don't agree with that part.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: But all right, so a couple of points.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: If you guys remember remember when we had low interest
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: rates and inflation was also low, So it's not necessarily
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I think a bad thing if we do see an
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: interest rate cut, because what has happened usually when an
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: interestate does cut is usually there's a little bit more
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: pressure on the economy. The question mark is has the
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Fed felt as though they have been able to tame inflation?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: That is Powell's pretty much biggest mission going forward. That
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: and of course correlating that to not losing too many jobs. Obviously,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: we saw the jobs number in last week. I think
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: it was one hundred and seventy seven thousand, so somewhat expected.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So again not bad news on the jobs numbers.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: But the key is going to.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Be do we see slow, a slow economy starting to
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: develop because of this lagging effect on what we've seen
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: around somewhat sticky inflation. I hear Trump saying that prices down.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I get that, but it takes a little bit of time,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of time. You have a lot more lagging
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: indicators that play into this and obviously affect the economic
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: condition of most Americans. And I think that's the thing
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: that Pal is going to have to be considering how
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: many fat rate cuts this year. If you go to polymarket,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: you got one at thirteen percent, you got two at
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: fifty BIPs right there, and then you can kind of
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: see it three and four. So for a variety of
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: people that are feeling very bullish around the potential of
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: more interest rate cuts as much as a one percent,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: which will be four cuts unless they were to do
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: a fifty, which I can't imagine that they would something
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: broke if they did a fifty. So a lot of
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: things moving right now, a lot of working parts. China
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: is holding their icebreaker trade talks in Geneva, and this
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: isn't necessarily it's kind of a little bit of a
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: tricky situation because they're therefore a Geneva convention discussion not
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: necessarily to talk trade. It's just that both countries are
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: there at the same time. So the likelihood of this
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: deal going into a discussion at least on icebreaker talks
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: is going to happen.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Now, maybe something good comes out.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: If anything, what will come out of this was will
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: be a Scott Bessen giving us a little bit of
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: a direction.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: And I think that's the key.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: If bessn't, you know, the Treasure Secretary can come out
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: and say, hey, we feel good about this. Watch for
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the market to really respond around that. And one of
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the things that they hit on right here negotiating teams
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: convene kind of a neutral space, but it's also expected
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: to discuss the tariffs. Obviously, they're going forward, all right,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I see your questions coming in. We'll try to get
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: to some of those, probably after pal or maybe before.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Let's go over to US companies. They're buying
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: back stock right now, fastest pace in history. So there's
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: two things that could be happening right now. Many people
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: would say, well, the possibility of buying back stock when
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: stock is depressed, getting ready for a market pump, or
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: it could be just war chests that are starting to
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: come into play with a lot of these companies that
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: are trying to reacquire some of their own stock at
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: lower prices.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: A lot of factors.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Look at this, but right now it's the fastest paced
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: in history. And if you look at the US stock
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: market right here, which is kind of interesting, you have
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: to kind of compound that along with the fact that
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: we're seeing inflows of one hundred and forty six billion.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: This is more than double the combined inflows of Europe, Japan,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: and China India. So I think the US is doing
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: just fine. I'm pretty much on point that the United
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: States is not going anywhere soon. Let's go to another
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: clip real quick, and this clip is going to get
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: into Is this the first sign for a potential.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Tariff resolve?
• 10:22
  Speaker 9: Take a look, and it's the first real sign in
• 10:25
  Speaker 9: months of momentum in US China trade negotiations. The news
• 10:29
  Speaker 9: of it yesterday came just after Bessett told lawmakers earlier
• 10:32
  Speaker 9: in the day that trade talks with China had yet
• 10:34
  Speaker 9: to begin, and Bessett last night appeared to sort of
• 10:37
  Speaker 9: downplay expectations for this meeting, but he did say everything
• 10:41
  Speaker 9: is on the table.
• 10:42
  Speaker 10: What we're going to do in Switzerland is we've agreed
• 10:45
  Speaker 10: to talk. Then on Saturday and Sunday we will agree
• 10:48
  Speaker 10: what we're going to talk about. My sense is that
• 10:51
  Speaker 10: this will be about de escalation, not about the big
• 10:55
  Speaker 10: trade deal. But we've got to de escalate before we
• 11:00
  Speaker 10: can move forward.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 11:01
  Speaker 9: Overnight, China's Commerce Ministry also laid out a longer set
• 11:04
  Speaker 9: of stipulations. They say, if the US wants to negotiate,
• 11:07
  Speaker 9: it must face up to the serious negative impact of
• 11:11
  Speaker 9: unilateral tariffs on itself and the world, correct it's wrong practices,
• 11:15
  Speaker 9: and meet China halfway. One thing we've heard from the
• 11:18
  Speaker 9: President in the last couple of days when he speaks
• 11:20
  Speaker 9: about Beijing, is when he thinks about the trade deficit.
• 11:23
  Speaker 9: He says that if we cut off all trade with China,
• 11:26
  Speaker 9: that's only a good thing for the US because it
• 11:28
  Speaker 9: means that we no longer have a trade deficit, We're
• 11:31
  Speaker 9: no longer losing money. It's not what most economists think,
• 11:34
  Speaker 9: it's not what I think the market believes either, but
• 11:36
  Speaker 9: something interesting to watch to be closer to this meeting.
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: Also adding to that that they said that the rest
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: of the world shouldn't appease the United States when it
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: comes to these things too, maybe signaling that they're worried
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: about the rest of the world kind of go along
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: along with some measures and teaming up with the United
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: States against them. But said, this is going to be
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: kind of fascinating.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Listen, there's a lot at stake here.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I want you guys to kind of consider what China
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: has done over the last twenty five years. They've become
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: the central place of manufacturing globally. So it's not just
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the United States that they've taken jobs from. It is France,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: most of Europe, a lot of South America, and they've
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: gone head to head with major powerhouses like India and
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: others that are manufacturing hubs. So there's a lot to
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: win at the table for a lot of these other countries.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Just by companies saying they're going to reduce just a
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: small percentage of their manufacturing in China, that in itself,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: I think is a major hit on the Chinese markets,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: especially if you think about someone like Apple that would say,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: let's say it's just five percent or ten percent, that
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: they slowly start to move and if they ever get
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: to a point where they say, okay, maybe thirty to
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: forty percent of our manufacturing can take place outside of China,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: that's a complete pivot on the strategy around how companies
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: are going forward. And think of Apple doing that, and
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: then take that times one thousand around all sorts of
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: manufacturing in general. So it definitely has a major impact.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: We will be going live, which air palicy addresses the
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: press into all of that good stuff. Let's take a
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: look at our first poll and see what we have,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: all right, would what would pump crypto more? Surprise? Interest
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: rate cuts? Everybody liking that tariff deals reached by Monday?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: You know, so that I think I'm gonna have to
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: disagree with you guys. I'm gonna have to go with
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: the tariffs. If we were to have a surprise, well,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: if it happened on by Monday, it would be a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: surprise on tariff deals, but a surprise interest rate cut.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Now obviously that the interest rates are going to hold,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: so there's another pause. Could that still happen before the
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: anticipation of maybe July, like a June interest rate cut. Still,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I'm still gonna go with tariffs. I think tariffs will
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: have the most impact on the markets overall. Other things
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: that will play out is of course, the European Union,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: their trade chief is saying the EU is going to
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: announce their prep steps for next countermeasures, and these are
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: negotiation tactics.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: It's a typical.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Model that we see around the world all the time
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: in business. It's not anything I think to be alarmed about.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: In fact, you know, most of these tariffs have not
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: even gone into place. So anyway, what do we have here.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: We got some stuff on the side. Bill being passed
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: would be huge, says Reggie. Bill Mill says, you can't
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: get a deal on tariff so fast. I agree with you,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Bill that it's unlikely that we would get that, but
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: you got to remember I think I know a lot
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: of people might disagree with this, but I do think
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that China does feel the pain. You can't not see
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the potential of these companies kind of running crazy, and
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: also the American consumer starting to see less and less
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of Chinese goods not be an impact already. Kyle Wilson,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I see you in the chat there into global liquidity
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: still increasing.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: Either way, I would agree.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: With Kyle on that is when you look at global liquidity,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: and this is something we've started to see over the
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: last really last two to three weeks.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: This is a key factor.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Going because that will give us the ability to track
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: where those funds are potentially going to go. And if
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: you have a weakening dollar and a structure that is
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: also lining up with a FED going down toward an
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: interest straight cut, then there's a lot of people setting up.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Don't forget Tether just printed.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Another billion are there occurring around the potential and don't
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: forget also Scott Besson said huge pent up to demand
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: up to two trillion. I think it was stable coins,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: So getting that stable coin legislation pass would be huge.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: It's not about rates right now. I agree with you,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Frank I vee. I think you are correct. There's a
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: lot of correction that has to be done in the markets,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: both on tariffs also on inflation. Trump needs to tell
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to make a ray cut in person that well, I
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: think he kind of well, it's probably out there doing
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: it right now in his livestream. We'll see zero cuts
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. So far, they got to give
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: us something. These guys are crazy. I would agree with
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: that one. I do think we will get a rake cut.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that we will get one percent. That's
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: four potentially four rate cuts by end of year. If
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: that were to happen, something is weird in the market,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: because remember the market has readjusted already just off of
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: these terrafts, so it's bounced back pretty significant.
• 16:35
  Speaker 11: Now.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: A lot of people think that's overbought. But if you
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: look at Tom Lee and his conversations in the last
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks, he's also still very very bullish, you know,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: he's kind of the permeable out there. What else do
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: we have here? I will think I think all of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the above will pump the market. In reference to those
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: true on that XRP all time, I would be a
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: good for XRP Las Vegas. That event is happening in Vegas.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I'll be there. We're gonna be doing some interviews, I'll
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: be motorting in some sessions. So it might be cool
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: to see you guys if you're out there at that
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: or the Bitcoin conference, either one. It's all happening in
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Vegas that week. So a lot going on the end
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of May. And don't forget Solana. Just around the corner,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Solana going into New York with Accelerate. Anticipate some big
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: news coming out of that event too. Here's Donald Trump
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: and he says, I got a big announcement. It's coming soon.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: So he's the master of promotion. And I don't know
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: what this is. I'd like to know what it is,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: but it could be something well actually he said it
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: was not Teriff related. So this could be something global,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: possibly in the way of a major partnership. Could it
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: be something around stable coins? Could be something around an acquisition.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Have they done a deal with Greenland? You know, who
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: knows what Trump's team is up to out there for sure?
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Andre says, why would something break if they did a fifty?
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: All right, well, let me explain that Andrea. Last year
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: they did seventy five. Yes, you look at this the acceleration,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: and granted, yes, interest rates I would say, in reality
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: are not that high if you compare to true downturns
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: in markets, if you look back at the economic crisis
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: in seven eight, if you go all the way back
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: into the eighties, I mean, we've seen very significant high rates.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: A fifty basis points was the cut that we did
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: not anticipate last year, and I think that was the
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: one that set things up but didn't necessarily solve the problem.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: And that was to be able to control inflation. So
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: a fifty right now, when the market is up as
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: it is, then you've got to consider there's something that
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: is causing Chair.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Powell to do that. So it's ususually going to be
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: bad on jobs.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: In other words, they broke something in the job market
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: or the economic performance of many companies are starting to
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: go down. Let's go to our next poll, second poll
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: out there, by the way, Thanks guys for participating in
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the polls, and we'll go over into that poll. Maybe not,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I think we've got it coming up soon. If not,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: not a problem, we'll go on over to our next tweet,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: which is that Trump, and of course the Canadian Prime Minister.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: They finally, oh there it is okay, So will Jerome
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Powell mentioned stable coins. Today forty three percent say.
• 19:28
  Speaker 12: No and on achieving our dual mandate, go live maximum
• 19:31
  Speaker 12: employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.
• 19:36
  Speaker 12: Despite heightened uncertainty, the economy is still in a solid position.
• 19:41
  Speaker 12: The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is
• 19:44
  Speaker 12: at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a
• 19:48
  Speaker 12: great deal, but has been running somewhat above our two
• 19:50
  Speaker 12: percent longer run objective. In support of our goals, today
• 19:56
  Speaker 12: the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy
• 19:59
  Speaker 12: interest rate on changed. The risks of higher unemployment and
• 20:03
  Speaker 12: higher inflation appear to have risen, and we believe that
• 20:06
  Speaker 12: the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned
• 20:10
  Speaker 12: to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.
• 20:15
  Speaker 7: I will have more to say about.
• 20:16
  Speaker 12: Monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
• 20:20
  Speaker 7: Pardon me.
• 20:23
  Speaker 12: Following growth of two point five percent last year, GDP
• 20:26
  Speaker 12: was reported to have edged down in the first quarter,
• 20:29
  Speaker 12: reflecting swings in net exports that were likely driven by
• 20:32
  Speaker 12: businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual
• 20:37
  Speaker 12: swing complicated GDP measurement.
• 20:39
  Speaker 7: Last quarter.
• 20:41
  Speaker 12: Private domestic final purchases or PDFP, which excludes net exports, inventory, investment,
• 20:47
  Speaker 12: and government spending grew at a solid three percent rate
• 20:50
  Speaker 12: in the first quarter, the same as last year's pace.
• 20:54
  Speaker 12: Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated, while investment in
• 20:57
  Speaker 12: equipment and in tangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter.
• 21:02
  Speaker 12: Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a sharp decline
• 21:05
  Speaker 12: in sentiment and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely
• 21:10
  Speaker 12: reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how
• 21:14
  Speaker 12: these developments might affect future spending and investment. In the
• 21:19
  Speaker 12: labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains average
• 21:24
  Speaker 12: one hundred and fifty five thousand per month over the
• 21:26
  Speaker 12: past three months. The unemployment rate, at four point two percent,
• 21:30
  Speaker 12: remains low and has stayed in a narrow range for
• 21:32
  Speaker 12: the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate, while
• 21:37
  Speaker 12: still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggest
• 21:41
  Speaker 12: that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance
• 21:44
  Speaker 12: and consistent with maximum employment. The labor market is not
• 21:49
  Speaker 12: a source of significant inflationary pressures. Inflation has eased significantly
• 21:55
  Speaker 12: from its highs in mid twenty twenty two, but remains
• 21:58
  Speaker 12: somewhat elevated relative to our two percent longer run goal.
• 22:02
  Speaker 12: Total PCEE prices rose two point three percent over the
• 22:05
  Speaker 12: twelve months ending in March. Excluding the volatile food and
• 22:09
  Speaker 12: energy categories, core PCEE prices rose two point six percent.
• 22:14
  Speaker 12: Near term measures of inflation expectations have moved up, as
• 22:17
  Speaker 12: reflected in both market and survey based measures. Survey respondents,
• 22:22
  Speaker 12: including consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters, point to tariffs as
• 22:26
  Speaker 12: the driving factor beyond the next year or so. However,
• 22:30
  Speaker 12: most measures of longer term expectations remain consistent with our
• 22:34
  Speaker 12: two percent inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided
• 22:40
  Speaker 12: by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable
• 22:43
  Speaker 12: prices for the American people. At today's meeting, a committee
• 22:47
  Speaker 12: decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds
• 22:49
  Speaker 12: rate at four and a quarter to four and a
• 22:51
  Speaker 12: half percent, and to continue reducing the size of the
• 22:54
  Speaker 12: balance sheet. The new administration is in the process of
• 22:58
  Speaker 12: implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas trade, immigration,
• 23:03
  Speaker 12: fiscal policy, and regulation. The tariff increases and outs so
• 23:08
  Speaker 12: far have been significantly larger than anticipated. All these policies
• 23:12
  Speaker 12: are still evolving, however, and their effects on the economy
• 23:15
  Speaker 12: remain highly uncertain. As economic conditions evolve, will continue to
• 23:21
  Speaker 12: determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the
• 23:24
  Speaker 12: incoming data, the outlook, and the balance of risks. If
• 23:28
  Speaker 12: the large increases in tariffs that have been announced or sustained,
• 23:33
  Speaker 12: they're likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slow
• 23:36
  Speaker 12: down in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment. The
• 23:39
  Speaker 12: effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one
• 23:43
  Speaker 12: time shift in the price level. Is also possible that
• 23:46
  Speaker 12: the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that
• 23:50
  Speaker 12: outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effect,
• 23:53
  Speaker 12: tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to
• 23:55
  Speaker 12: pass through fully into prices, and ultimately on keeping longer
• 23:59
  Speaker 12: term inflation expits dictations well anchored. Our obligation is to
• 24:03
  Speaker 12: keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent
• 24:06
  Speaker 12: a one time increase in the price level from becoming
• 24:09
  Speaker 12: an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation.
• 24:13
  Speaker 12: We'll balance our maximum employment and price stability mandates, keeping
• 24:17
  Speaker 12: in mind that without price stability, we cannot achieve the
• 24:20
  Speaker 12: long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.
• 24:25
  Speaker 12: We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which
• 24:28
  Speaker 12: our dual mandate goals are intentioned. If that were to occur,
• 24:32
  Speaker 12: we would consider how far the economy is from each
• 24:34
  Speaker 12: goal and the potentially different time horizons over which those
• 24:38
  Speaker 12: respective gaps would be anticipated to close. For the time being,
• 24:43
  Speaker 12: we're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering
• 24:46
  Speaker 12: any adjustments to our policy stance. At this meeting, the
• 24:51
  Speaker 12: Committee continued its discussions as part of our five year
• 24:53
  Speaker 12: review of our monetary policy framework. We focused on inflation
• 24:57
  Speaker 12: dynamics and the implications for our mind monetary policy strategy.
• 25:02
  Speaker 7: Our review includes outreach and.
• 25:04
  Speaker 12: Public events involving a wide range of parties, including FED
• 25:07
  Speaker 12: listens events around the country, and a research conference next week.
• 25:12
  Speaker 12: Throughout this process, we're open to new ideas and critical feedback,
• 25:16
  Speaker 12: and we will take on board lessons of the last
• 25:18
  Speaker 12: five years in determining our findings. We intend to wrap
• 25:21
  Speaker 12: up the review by late summer. The FED has been
• 25:25
  Speaker 12: assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices.
• 25:30
  Speaker 12: We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably
• 25:34
  Speaker 12: to our two percent goal, and keeping longer term inflation
• 25:38
  Speaker 12: expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals
• 25:42
  Speaker 12: matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families,
• 25:47
  Speaker 12: and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in
• 25:51
  Speaker 12: service to our public mission. We yet, the FED will
• 25:54
  Speaker 12: do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and
• 25:56
  Speaker 12: price stability goals.
• 25:58
  Speaker 7: Thank you, I look forward to you questions.
• 26:04
  Speaker 13: Steve Lee's been CNBC. Thank you, ch chair for taking
• 26:06
  Speaker 13: my question. A lot has happened since the last meeting.
• 26:10
  Speaker 13: There's been tarists put on, taras taken off and mean
• 26:13
  Speaker 13: though there's a bill advancing in Congress, and I just
• 26:16
  Speaker 13: wonder if I could press you on the last part
• 26:17
  Speaker 13: of your statement. Are you any closer now to deciding
• 26:21
  Speaker 13: which side of the mandate is going to need urgent
• 26:25
  Speaker 13: care first?
• 26:28
  Speaker 12: Well, so, as we noted in our you know, our
• 26:33
  Speaker 12: statement post meeting statement, we've judged that the risks to
• 26:36
  Speaker 12: higher employment and higher inflation have both risen, and this
• 26:38
  Speaker 12: by the way, of course, is compared to March.
• 26:42
  Speaker 7: So that's what we can say.
• 26:43
  Speaker 12: I don't think we can say, you know which way
• 26:47
  Speaker 12: this will shake out. I think there's a great deal
• 26:49
  Speaker 12: of uncertainty about, for example, where tariff policies are going
• 26:53
  Speaker 12: to settle out, and also when they do settle out,
• 26:56
  Speaker 12: what will be the implications for the economy, for growth
• 26:59
  Speaker 12: and for employment. I think it's too early to know that.
• 27:02
  Speaker 12: So I mean, ultimately, we think our policy rate is
• 27:04
  Speaker 12: in a good.
• 27:05
  Speaker 7: Place to.
• 27:07
  Speaker 12: Stay as we wait further clarity on tariffs and ultimately
• 27:10
  Speaker 12: their implications for the economy.
• 27:12
  Speaker 13: Hearing you describe what you're looking for in terms of
• 27:15
  Speaker 13: being able to make a decision, it sounded like that's
• 27:19
  Speaker 13: a long term process. Before you sound like you're going
• 27:21
  Speaker 13: to be comfortable or the committee would be comforful to
• 27:24
  Speaker 13: act on what the data is telling you.
• 27:27
  Speaker 12: I don't think we know, you know. I think look
• 27:30
  Speaker 12: where we are today. We have an economy that, if
• 27:33
  Speaker 12: you look through you know, the sort of distortions in
• 27:37
  Speaker 12: Q one GDP, you've still got an economy that looks
• 27:39
  Speaker 12: like it's growing at a solid pace. The labor market
• 27:41
  Speaker 12: appears to be solid, inflation is running just a bit
• 27:45
  Speaker 12: above two percent. So it's an economy that's been resilient,
• 27:48
  Speaker 12: as in good shape, and our policy is sort of
• 27:51
  Speaker 12: modestly or moderately restrictive. It's one hundred basis points less
• 27:55
  Speaker 12: restrictive than it was last fall, and so we think
• 27:59
  Speaker 12: that leaves us and a good place to wait and see.
• 28:01
  Speaker 12: We don't think we need to be in a hurry.
• 28:02
  Speaker 12: We think we can be patient. We're going to be
• 28:04
  Speaker 12: watching the data. The data may move quickly or slowly,
• 28:08
  Speaker 12: but we do think we're in a good position where
• 28:10
  Speaker 12: we are to let things evolve and become clearer in
• 28:15
  Speaker 12: terms of what should be the monetary policy response.
• 28:18
  Speaker 14: Nick make these rules the Journal Turkow. There's naturally a
• 28:26
  Speaker 14: lot of around twenty twenty one in supply shocks, but
• 28:30
  Speaker 14: there are some who argue that the current situation has
• 28:33
  Speaker 14: notable differences energy costs or down Housing and balances look
• 28:37
  Speaker 14: nothing like they did four years ago. Labor demand appears
• 28:40
  Speaker 14: to be gradually cooling, with wage growth running below four percent.
• 28:44
  Speaker 14: What do you see right now that could nourish higher
• 28:47
  Speaker 14: inflation beyond a rise in goods prices this year?
• 28:53
  Speaker 7: I think the underlying inflation picture is good.
• 28:57
  Speaker 12: It's what you see, which is inflation now a bit
• 29:00
  Speaker 12: above two percent, and we've had basically decent readings in
• 29:04
  Speaker 12: housing services and non housing services, which is a big
• 29:07
  Speaker 12: part of it. So that part, I think is is
• 29:12
  Speaker 12: moving along well. But there's just so much that we
• 29:16
  Speaker 12: don't know, I think, and we're in a good position
• 29:20
  Speaker 12: to wait and see.
• 29:21
  Speaker 7: Is the thing. We don't have to be in a hurry.
• 29:22
  Speaker 12: The economy has been resilient and is doing fairly well,
• 29:26
  Speaker 12: our policies well positioned. The costs of waiting to see
• 29:29
  Speaker 12: further are fairly low, we think. So that's what we're doing,
• 29:34
  Speaker 12: and you know, we'll see. The administration is entering into
• 29:40
  Speaker 12: negotiations with many countries over teriffs. We'll know more with
• 29:43
  Speaker 12: each which with each week and month that goes by,
• 29:47
  Speaker 12: where about where tariffs are going to land, and we'll
• 29:51
  Speaker 12: know what the effects will be when we start to
• 29:52
  Speaker 12: see those things.
• 29:53
  Speaker 7: So we think we'll be learning.
• 29:54
  Speaker 12: I can't tell you how long it will take, but
• 29:57
  Speaker 12: for now it does seem like it's a fair really
• 30:00
  Speaker 12: clear decision for us to wait and see and watch.
• 30:03
  Speaker 14: So when you say that you don't need to be
• 30:05
  Speaker 14: in a hurry, does that mean that could be all
• 30:09
  Speaker 14: change in such a way that a change in your
• 30:11
  Speaker 14: stance could be warranted as soon as your next meeting.
• 30:14
  Speaker 12: You know, as I said, we're we are comfortable with
• 30:20
  Speaker 12: our policy stance. We think the right we're in the
• 30:22
  Speaker 12: right place to wait and see how things evolve. We
• 30:26
  Speaker 12: don't feel like we need to be in a hurry.
• 30:27
  Speaker 12: We feel like it's appropriate to be patient and you know,
• 30:31
  Speaker 12: when when things develop. Of course we have a we
• 30:33
  Speaker 12: have a record of we can move quickly when that's appropriate.
• 30:37
  Speaker 12: But we think right now the appropriate thing to do
• 30:39
  Speaker 12: is to wait and see how things evolve.
• 30:41
  Speaker 7: There's so much uncertainty if you.
• 30:42
  Speaker 12: Talk to businesses or market participants or forecasters, everyone is
• 30:48
  Speaker 12: just is just waiting to see how developments play out,
• 30:51
  Speaker 12: and then we'll be able to make a better assessment
• 30:54
  Speaker 12: of what the appropriate path for monetary policy is. So
• 30:57
  Speaker 12: we're not in that place, and you know, as that develops,
• 31:00
  Speaker 12: and I can't I can't really give you a timeframe
• 31:02
  Speaker 12: on that.
• 31:04
  Speaker 7: John L.
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: Janelle Marte with Bloomberg. So many economists have been pricing
• 31:12
  Speaker 6: in higher odds of a recession, and several are noting
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: that it's more difficult for the fat to cut rates
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: preemptively given the higher risks for higher inflation. So given
• 31:26
  Speaker 6: the outlook, do you still see a path for a
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: soft landing?
• 31:30
  Speaker 7: And what does that look like?
• 31:33
  Speaker 12: Well, let me say, I mean, so let's let's let's
• 31:38
  Speaker 12: look back and see where we are so to go
• 31:42
  Speaker 12: through twenty twenty four. Up to the day, we've had
• 31:44
  Speaker 12: we've had you know, unemployment in the low for more
• 31:47
  Speaker 12: than a year. We've had inflation coming down in the
• 31:49
  Speaker 12: now in the mid to low twos. We've had an
• 31:52
  Speaker 12: economy growing at two and a half percent. So that
• 31:54
  Speaker 12: that is, that is the economy as we see it.
• 31:56
  Speaker 7: Now. What looks like given the scope and.
• 32:01
  Speaker 12: Scale of the tariffs, is that we will see it's
• 32:06
  Speaker 12: certainly the risks to hire, inflation higher, unemployment have increased.
• 32:10
  Speaker 12: And if that's what we do see, and if the
• 32:12
  Speaker 12: tariffs are ultimately put in place at those levels which
• 32:14
  Speaker 12: we don't know, then then we will see we won't
• 32:18
  Speaker 12: see further progress toward our goals, but we might see
• 32:21
  Speaker 12: a delay in that. I think in the you know,
• 32:23
  Speaker 12: in our in our thinking, we would get we would
• 32:25
  Speaker 12: never would we never do anything but keep achieving those goals,
• 32:28
  Speaker 12: but we would at least for the next let's say year,
• 32:31
  Speaker 12: we would we would not be making progress.
• 32:33
  Speaker 7: Towards the The thing.
• 32:36
  Speaker 12: Is, we don't know that there's so much uncertainty about
• 32:39
  Speaker 12: the scale, scope, timing, and persistence of the of the tariffs.
• 32:44
  Speaker 7: So so that's that's that.
• 32:45
  Speaker 12: In terms of preemption, you know, I think you can
• 32:50
  Speaker 12: look back at the twenty nineteen cuts as at press preemptive.
• 32:53
  Speaker 12: I wouldn't say that what we did last fall was
• 32:55
  Speaker 12: at all preemptive. If anything, it was a little late.
• 32:58
  Speaker 12: But two thousand nineteen we did cut three times. But
• 33:02
  Speaker 12: the situation was you had a weakening economy and you
• 33:04
  Speaker 12: had inflation at one point six percent. So that's a
• 33:08
  Speaker 12: situation where you can move preemptively. Now we have inflation
• 33:11
  Speaker 12: running above target. It has been above target for four years.
• 33:14
  Speaker 12: It's not so far above target now, and we have
• 33:17
  Speaker 12: an expectation conditional on what happens, that we'll see upward
• 33:22
  Speaker 12: pressure on inflation. If you look at where forecasters are,
• 33:24
  Speaker 12: they're all forecasting and increase in inflation, So it makes it.
• 33:28
  Speaker 12: And then we've also got forecasts of weakening in the economy,
• 33:33
  Speaker 12: and some have procession forecasts we don't make. We don't
• 33:36
  Speaker 12: make it publish a forecast about that. We don't publish
• 33:39
  Speaker 12: a forecast that assesses how likely.
• 33:41
  Speaker 7: A recession is.
• 33:41
  Speaker 12: But in any case, it's it's not a situation where
• 33:44
  Speaker 12: we can be preemptive because we actually don't know what
• 33:47
  Speaker 12: the right response to the data will be until we
• 33:51
  Speaker 12: see more data.
• 33:54
  Speaker 15: Colby Smith with the New York Times. How much weakness
• 34:01
  Speaker 15: does the committee need to see though, in the labor
• 34:03
  Speaker 15: market and the economy more broadly to lower interest rates?
• 34:06
  Speaker 7: Again?
• 34:07
  Speaker 15: Is it about a certain increase in the unemployment rate
• 34:09
  Speaker 15: over a period of time, or perhaps a certain number
• 34:13
  Speaker 15: of negative monthly job reports? I mean, how are you
• 34:16
  Speaker 15: making that assessment?
• 34:18
  Speaker 7: You know?
• 34:18
  Speaker 12: So, first of all, we don't see that yet, right,
• 34:20
  Speaker 12: we have four point two percent unemployment, good participation, way
• 34:24
  Speaker 12: just behaving very well. Participation I mentioned at a good level.
• 34:28
  Speaker 12: So you know, with the labor market, we would look
• 34:30
  Speaker 12: at the totality of the data.
• 34:33
  Speaker 7: We'd look at the level of the.
• 34:34
  Speaker 12: Unemployment rate, we'd look at the speed with which it's changing.
• 34:38
  Speaker 12: We would look at the whole huge array of labor
• 34:41
  Speaker 12: market data to get a sense of whether conditions deteriorating
• 34:46
  Speaker 12: or not. And at the same time we'd be looking
• 34:49
  Speaker 12: at the other side of the mandate, we could be
• 34:50
  Speaker 12: in a position of having to balance those two things,
• 34:53
  Speaker 12: which is of course a very difficult balancing judgment that
• 34:57
  Speaker 12: we'd have to make.
• 34:58
  Speaker 15: On that point about balance, I mean, you've mentioned that
• 35:01
  Speaker 15: the committee would consider how far the economy is from
• 35:05
  Speaker 15: each goal and the time it would take to kind
• 35:07
  Speaker 15: of get back to that point. But what does that
• 35:09
  Speaker 15: mean in practice? I mean, how much of that assessment
• 35:11
  Speaker 15: will be rooted in a forecast versus data dependence.
• 35:15
  Speaker 7: It would be a combination of the two.
• 35:17
  Speaker 12: I mean, let's just say this is that this would
• 35:19
  Speaker 12: be a complicated and challenging judgment that we would have
• 35:23
  Speaker 12: to make if and this is we're not in this situation.
• 35:26
  Speaker 12: But the situation is if the two goals are intentions.
• 35:29
  Speaker 12: So let's say that unemployment is moving up in an
• 35:32
  Speaker 12: uncomfortable way and so is inflation. Not the situation we're
• 35:35
  Speaker 12: in hypothetically, but we would we would look at how
• 35:38
  Speaker 12: far they are from the goals, how far they're expected
• 35:40
  Speaker 12: to be from the goals, what's the expected time to
• 35:43
  Speaker 12: get back to their goals. We'd look at all those
• 35:45
  Speaker 12: things and make a difficult judgment, and that that's in
• 35:47
  Speaker 12: our framework it's it's always been in our thinking, you know,
• 35:50
  Speaker 12: it's we haven't had we haven't faced that question in
• 35:52
  Speaker 12: a very long time.
• 35:55
  Speaker 7: And so again.
• 35:57
  Speaker 12: Difficult, difficult judgment to make, and not one that we
• 35:59
  Speaker 12: think today, and we may we may never face it,
• 36:02
  Speaker 12: but you know, we have to be keeping our in
• 36:04
  Speaker 12: our thinking now.
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: And thank you Edward Lawrence with Fox Business. So we
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: had the CPI report that came out that showed month
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: of a month, the first decrease in inflation in about
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: three years. The jobs report, you said, solid that we saw.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: At the same time, we have those new tariffs that
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: we're living under. So given this, should the Fitter Reserve
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: be cutting rates at all this year?
• 36:31
  Speaker 12: You know it's going to depend I think I think
• 36:32
  Speaker 12: you have to just take a step back and realize
• 36:35
  Speaker 12: this is this is why we are where we are
• 36:38
  Speaker 12: is you know, we're going to need to see how
• 36:40
  Speaker 12: this evolves. There are cases in which it would be
• 36:42
  Speaker 12: appropriate for us to cut rates this year, there are
• 36:45
  Speaker 12: cases in which it wouldn't, and we just don't know
• 36:48
  Speaker 12: until we know more about how this is going to
• 36:51
  Speaker 12: settle out and what the economic implications are for employment,
• 36:55
  Speaker 12: for and for for inflation. I couldn't confidently say that
• 37:03
  Speaker 12: I know what the appropriate path will be.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: So following on that, just you know. So then how
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: does President Trump calling on you personally as well as
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve to make rate cuts affect your decision
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: today and affect your job difficulty.
• 37:17
  Speaker 12: Doesn't affect our doing our job at all. So we're
• 37:20
  Speaker 12: always going to do the same thing, which is we're
• 37:23
  Speaker 12: going to use our tools to foster maximum employment and
• 37:26
  Speaker 12: price stability for the benefit of the American people. We're
• 37:29
  Speaker 12: always going to consider only the economic data, the outlook,
• 37:33
  Speaker 12: the balance of risks, and that's it. That's all we're
• 37:35
  Speaker 12: going to consider. So it really doesn't affect either our
• 37:38
  Speaker 12: job or the way.
• 37:39
  Speaker 15: We do it.
• 37:44
  Speaker 16: Hi, Howard Schneiner with Rutters, and thanks for the time.
• 37:47
  Speaker 16: I'm wondering, I mean, given the complexity about the first
• 37:50
  Speaker 16: quarter GDP and what lies ahead, I'm just wondering what
• 37:53
  Speaker 16: your intuition tells you about the underlying direction of the
• 37:57
  Speaker 16: economy right now. Many of your colleagues have said they
• 37:59
  Speaker 16: feel growth is slowing. If so, do you have any
• 38:03
  Speaker 16: sense of how, by how much to what degree the
• 38:05
  Speaker 16: slowdown may be. What does your gut tell you about
• 38:08
  Speaker 16: how things are evolving out there.
• 38:10
  Speaker 12: My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of
• 38:13
  Speaker 12: the economy is extremely elevated, and that the downside risks
• 38:20
  Speaker 12: have increased. The risk is, as we pointed out in
• 38:23
  Speaker 12: our statement, the risks of the risks of higher unemployment
• 38:27
  Speaker 12: and higher inflation have risen, but they haven't materialized yet,
• 38:32
  Speaker 12: they really have they're not really.
• 38:33
  Speaker 7: Not in the data yet. So that and that tells.
• 38:36
  Speaker 12: Me more than by intuition, because I think I think
• 38:39
  Speaker 12: it's obvious actually that the right thing for us to
• 38:42
  Speaker 12: do is that we're in a good place.
• 38:44
  Speaker 7: Our policy is in a very good.
• 38:45
  Speaker 12: Place, and the right thing to do is a wait
• 38:50
  Speaker 12: further clarity, and you know, there's usually things clarify and
• 38:56
  Speaker 12: that the appropriate direction becomes clear. That's what usually happens.
• 38:59
  Speaker 12: Right right now, it's very hard to say what that
• 39:01
  Speaker 12: would be. In the meantime, the economy is doing fine.
• 39:05
  Speaker 12: Our policy isn't you know. It's not highly restrictive. It's
• 39:08
  Speaker 12: somewhat restrictive. It's one hundred basis points less restrictive than
• 39:11
  Speaker 12: it was in you know, last summer. So we think
• 39:14
  Speaker 12: it's we think it's in a good place, and we
• 39:15
  Speaker 12: think the appropriate thing is for us to wait and
• 39:17
  Speaker 12: see and get more clarity about about the direction of
• 39:21
  Speaker 12: the economy.
• 39:22
  Speaker 16: Well, let me let me pressure on this idea of
• 39:23
  Speaker 16: the economy of being fine right now, because reading the
• 39:26
  Speaker 16: Beige Book very closely the last time around, there was
• 39:30
  Speaker 16: a lot of you know, negative stuff, negative sentiment that
• 39:33
  Speaker 16: was in there. And I know that everybody's looking at
• 39:36
  Speaker 16: soft data right now. You mentioned it yourself that the
• 39:39
  Speaker 16: sentiment's sour, But the Beige Book was talking about, you know,
• 39:43
  Speaker 16: the beginnings of layoffs in some industries, prices rising in
• 39:47
  Speaker 16: some places, and an awful lot of investment decisions being
• 39:51
  Speaker 16: being pushed to the sideline. Doesn't that point to a slowdown?
• 39:56
  Speaker 7: It may, well, it just hasn't shown up yet.
• 39:58
  Speaker 12: And you know we all look at all these sentiment
• 40:03
  Speaker 12: and read many, many individual comments just to get a
• 40:06
  Speaker 12: better feel.
• 40:06
  Speaker 7: And you know, businesses and.
• 40:08
  Speaker 12: Households very broadly are are concerned, and you know, postponing
• 40:14
  Speaker 12: economic decisions of various kinds. And yes, if that continues
• 40:18
  Speaker 12: and nothing happens to sort of alleviate those concerns, then
• 40:22
  Speaker 12: you would expect that to begin to show up in
• 40:24
  Speaker 12: economic data. It wouldn't maybe show up overnight, but it
• 40:27
  Speaker 12: would show up over weeks and months, and that may
• 40:30
  Speaker 12: be what happens, but it hadn't happened yet. And also
• 40:32
  Speaker 12: there are things that can happen that will that will
• 40:35
  Speaker 12: change that narrative. I mean, they haven't happened, but it's
• 40:38
  Speaker 12: possible to imagine things. But in the meantime, yes, we're
• 40:41
  Speaker 12: watching it extremely carefully, like everyone is, but don't see
• 40:45
  Speaker 12: really much evidence of it in the actual economic data yet.
• 40:50
  Speaker 12: And by the way, consumers keep spending credit card spending.
• 40:53
  Speaker 12: It's you know, it's still it's still a healthy economy,
• 40:57
  Speaker 12: albeit one that is shrouded in some very downbeat sentiment
• 41:01
  Speaker 12: on the part of people and businesses.
• 41:06
  Speaker 11: Home Michael mcketh and Bloomberg Radio and Television. The FED
• 41:12
  Speaker 11: has been criticized recently by a former governor for what
• 41:15
  Speaker 11: he calls Mission creep.
• 41:16
  Speaker 7: You take on more problems.
• 41:18
  Speaker 11: Use more tools, and then end up building tools to
• 41:21
  Speaker 11: deal with the fallout of those tools, which then makes
• 41:24
  Speaker 11: it a given that you will act more aggressively in
• 41:26
  Speaker 11: the future. Is that a fair critique and is that
• 41:29
  Speaker 11: something you would be looking at in your framework review?
• 41:32
  Speaker 7: Sorry say that critique again.
• 41:34
  Speaker 11: That the FED has been involved in mission creep gets
• 41:37
  Speaker 11: involved in using too many new tools to deal.
• 41:40
  Speaker 7: With problems and to go too far.
• 41:43
  Speaker 11: Is that something that the critique was based around the
• 41:49
  Speaker 11: fact that you did QI and QI and QE and
• 41:57
  Speaker 11: went beyond the narrow confines of your mandate.
• 42:00
  Speaker 12: So well, I mean, there are a couple that's not
• 42:02
  Speaker 12: really beyond the confines of our mandate. Look, I would
• 42:04
  Speaker 12: say this, you know, we did things. Essentially, we're on
• 42:08
  Speaker 12: an emergency footing for a couple of years in the pandemic,
• 42:11
  Speaker 12: and it's very fair and very welcome for people to
• 42:14
  Speaker 12: look back over what we did and say, hey, you
• 42:16
  Speaker 12: could have done this better and different. And one thing
• 42:18
  Speaker 12: we hear a lot is we could have explained to
• 42:20
  Speaker 12: QE a little better. We did think we were explaining
• 42:23
  Speaker 12: it in real time. I completely accept the thought that
• 42:27
  Speaker 12: we could have explained it better.
• 42:29
  Speaker 7: There's a lot of.
• 42:30
  Speaker 12: Thinking that we went on too long with QE. I
• 42:32
  Speaker 12: can tell you that the reason we did was we
• 42:35
  Speaker 12: were concerned that we didn't want a tightening of a
• 42:39
  Speaker 12: sharp tightening in financial conditions at a time when we
• 42:42
  Speaker 12: thought the economy was still vulnerable, and so we did
• 42:45
  Speaker 12: hold on for a long time to q E. And
• 42:47
  Speaker 12: we of course tapered and everything, and then we immediately
• 42:50
  Speaker 12: went into q T and you know, we've were.
• 42:53
  Speaker 7: Down a couple of trillion.
• 42:54
  Speaker 12: But I get that, you know, we certainly, with the
• 42:57
  Speaker 12: benefit of hindsight, could have tapered earlier or fat store.
• 43:01
  Speaker 7: That's absolutely right. But this is all very welcome, you know.
• 43:04
  Speaker 7: It's it's you know, we knew doing this in real.
• 43:06
  Speaker 12: Time, that we weren't going to get it perfect, and
• 43:09
  Speaker 12: that those kind of those kind of you know, after
• 43:13
  Speaker 12: action kind of looks are essential, and we're doing the
• 43:16
  Speaker 12: same thing and you know in our review, so on
• 43:19
  Speaker 12: some issues there.
• 43:20
  Speaker 11: The other part of that critique is that you've taken
• 43:24
  Speaker 11: on topics that are outside of the mandate, such as
• 43:27
  Speaker 11: climate change and trying to ensure that certain groups are
• 43:34
  Speaker 11: benefited by your economic policies in terms of employment, et cetera.
• 43:40
  Speaker 12: So Okay, on climate, you've heard me say over and
• 43:43
  Speaker 12: over again that we will not be climate policy makers
• 43:48
  Speaker 12: and that our role on climate is a very very
• 43:51
  Speaker 12: narrow one. And I think I think that's what we've done.
• 43:54
  Speaker 12: We've done really very little on climate. You can say
• 43:58
  Speaker 12: that was that little bit that we've on was too much,
• 44:01
  Speaker 12: but I wouldn't want to give any impression that that,
• 44:04
  Speaker 12: you know, we we take that we've taken climate and
• 44:06
  Speaker 12: it's something that we're spending a lot of time and
• 44:08
  Speaker 12: energy on.
• 44:09
  Speaker 7: We're not. We have very very narrow things.
• 44:12
  Speaker 12: We we did one thing of one guidance for the banks,
• 44:16
  Speaker 12: and then we did one a one time uh stress
• 44:19
  Speaker 12: analysis climate stress analysis, and that's it. And you know,
• 44:22
  Speaker 12: we dropped out of the network we're bringing the financial system.
• 44:26
  Speaker 12: Uh So we didn't we didn't do much on climate.
• 44:28
  Speaker 12: But and I do think, and I've said this publicly
• 44:31
  Speaker 12: several times, I think it's it's a real danger for
• 44:35
  Speaker 12: us to try to take on a mandate like that,
• 44:37
  Speaker 12: which is very narrow application to our work. And you know,
• 44:42
  Speaker 12: the risk is if you if you go for things
• 44:45
  Speaker 12: that are really not on your mandate, you know, then
• 44:47
  Speaker 12: then why are you independent? And you know, I think
• 44:50
  Speaker 12: that's a very fair question. I do think we've we've
• 44:52
  Speaker 12: done a whole lot less on climate than some people
• 44:54
  Speaker 12: seem to think we did.
• 44:56
  Speaker 7: Anyway, that's what I.
• 44:57
  Speaker 11: Should have t the question of bringing unemployment rates down
• 45:03
  Speaker 11: for specific.
• 45:04
  Speaker 7: Categories, we didn't do that. You know, we said.
• 45:06
  Speaker 12: What we said was that we never targeted any unemployment
• 45:10
  Speaker 12: rate for individual, racial or demographic groups. What we said
• 45:13
  Speaker 12: was that maximum employment was a broad and inclusive goal,
• 45:17
  Speaker 12: and I think, uh, what we meant by that was
• 45:19
  Speaker 12: we're going to consider the totality of the country as
• 45:24
  Speaker 12: we look at at our maximum employment goal. Of course,
• 45:28
  Speaker 12: we were never going to target an any individual group
• 45:30
  Speaker 12: with that, but I think some people, you know, wanted
• 45:33
  Speaker 12: to hear it that way.
• 45:34
  Speaker 7: But that's that's not at all what we meant.
• 45:36
  Speaker 8: Uh.
• 45:37
  Speaker 12: But so that's just not a correct reading of of
• 45:40
  Speaker 12: our But like I can see how you know, maybe
• 45:42
  Speaker 12: people found that confusing and and you know, we have
• 45:45
  Speaker 12: to take that into consideration.
• 45:48
  Speaker 17: Joblie Hi, Chair Powell, thanks for taking our questions today.
• 45:53
  Speaker 17: I'm Joeline Kent with CBS News. You've said wait and see,
• 45:57
  Speaker 17: and the economy is doing fine today, but the impact
• 45:59
  Speaker 17: of griffs are already showing up at supports. Businesses big
• 46:03
  Speaker 17: and small are telling us that they feel it, and
• 46:05
  Speaker 17: most importantly, consumers say they feel it that the challenges
• 46:08
  Speaker 17: are here and there's no waiting and seeing for main street.
• 46:12
  Speaker 7: What is the breaking point?
• 46:13
  Speaker 17: What would have to happen to prompt a rate cut specifically?
• 46:18
  Speaker 12: Well, you know, so we we we really don't see
• 46:23
  Speaker 12: in the data yet big economic effects. We see we
• 46:26
  Speaker 12: see sentiment, their concerns that higher prices may be coming
• 46:31
  Speaker 12: or things like that. So people are they're worried now
• 46:34
  Speaker 12: about inflation. They're worried about about uh, you know, a
• 46:37
  Speaker 12: shock from the tariffs, but they really haven't that shock
• 46:40
  Speaker 12: hasn't hit yet. Okay, So you know, we're going to
• 46:43
  Speaker 12: be looking at the at the not just the sentiment data,
• 46:46
  Speaker 12: but also the real economic data as we assess what
• 46:49
  Speaker 12: it is we should do.
• 46:50
  Speaker 7: And remember we're there'll be two effects.
• 46:53
  Speaker 12: One of them would be weakening economy, weakening economic activity,
• 46:57
  Speaker 12: which translates into higher unemployment, and the other would be
• 47:00
  Speaker 12: potentially higher inflation. Again, to say it again, the timing,
• 47:05
  Speaker 12: the scope, the scale, and the persistence of those effects are.
• 47:08
  Speaker 7: Very very uncertain.
• 47:10
  Speaker 12: So it's not at all clear what the appropriate response
• 47:13
  Speaker 12: for monetary policy is at this time.
• 47:16
  Speaker 7: And we're you know, and by the way, our policy.
• 47:19
  Speaker 12: Is in a good place, so we think we can
• 47:20
  Speaker 12: wait and move when when it is clear what the
• 47:23
  Speaker 12: right thing to do.
• 47:23
  Speaker 7: Is really not at all clear what it is we
• 47:26
  Speaker 7: should do. So people are.
• 47:28
  Speaker 12: Feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up. Job
• 47:32
  Speaker 12: creation is fine. Wages are in good shape. You know,
• 47:36
  Speaker 12: people are not layoffs or people are not getting laid
• 47:39
  Speaker 12: off at high levels. You know, initial claims for unemployment
• 47:43
  Speaker 12: are not increasing, you know, in any kind of impressive way.
• 47:47
  Speaker 12: So the economy itself is still, you know, in solid shape.
• 47:52
  Speaker 17: Just a quick follow up, President Trump now says he
• 47:56
  Speaker 17: does not plan to remove you as chair.
• 47:58
  Speaker 7: When you heard that, what did you think?
• 48:01
  Speaker 12: I don't have anything more for you on that. I've
• 48:03
  Speaker 12: pretty much covered that issue.
• 48:05
  Speaker 7: Thank you, Hi, thank you.
• 48:10
  Speaker 18: Chris Wegaber, associated Press, Well, I just wanted to follow
• 48:14
  Speaker 18: up earlier. It sounded like you said it was unclear
• 48:18
  Speaker 18: how the Fed you know, what kind of interest rate
• 48:20
  Speaker 18: decisions you will make later this year. So does that
• 48:24
  Speaker 18: you know, in March there was guidance that two cuts
• 48:27
  Speaker 18: might happen, you know, two cuts were penciled in for
• 48:29
  Speaker 18: this year. Is that now that guidance from the last
• 48:32
  Speaker 18: press conference? Has that been overtaken by events? At this point?
• 48:36
  Speaker 12: You know, we don't do a summary of economic projections
• 48:39
  Speaker 12: at every meeting, as you know, we do it every
• 48:41
  Speaker 12: other meeting, and so this was the meeting when we
• 48:43
  Speaker 12: didn't do it. And I, you know, we don't also
• 48:48
  Speaker 12: kind of pull people. So I really, I really wouldn't
• 48:50
  Speaker 12: want to try to make a specific projection for where
• 48:54
  Speaker 12: we are relative to that. We will in six weeks.
• 48:56
  Speaker 12: We had the June meeting, and you'll have another SEP.
• 48:59
  Speaker 12: I'm not going to hazard a guess here today as
• 49:03
  Speaker 12: to what it would be. Again, what I would say
• 49:06
  Speaker 12: is that we think our policy rate is in a
• 49:09
  Speaker 12: good place. We think it leaves us well positioned to
• 49:11
  Speaker 12: respond in a timely way to potential developments.
• 49:14
  Speaker 7: That's where we are.
• 49:15
  Speaker 12: And that depending on the way things play out, that
• 49:19
  Speaker 12: could include rate hikes, sorry, rate cuts, you know, conclude
• 49:23
  Speaker 12: us could include us holding where we are. We just
• 49:27
  Speaker 12: are going to need to see, you know, how things
• 49:30
  Speaker 12: play out before we make those decisions.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Happening there with a course chair pal getting into a
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: lot of details seems a little bit hockey. Still a
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: little bit concerned here around what's happening with the market
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: in terms of both tariffs, I think more pressure coming
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: from the terror side, and of course whether or not
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: jobs can hold. So this was a little bit more
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: hawkish than I anticipated.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: And if we do see.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: More signals coming out of the economy, this will come
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: from jobs and obviously we'll start to see possibly a
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: slowdown in some retailers. Again back to the lagging effect
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: of what these tariffs could have.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: Then yes, how.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: Could be right to hold back on rate cuts and
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: that seems to be the position, even though pretty much
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: everybody is out there in the press corps trying to
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: push him to get a rate cut done. Just as
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a news A couple other things
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: I wanted to hit on. Paul Atkins is going to
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: be giving a keynote address at the SEC Crypto Roundtable.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: This would be coming up here in the middle of
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: the May remember fidelities in their nasda's and their black
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: rocks in there. This is maybe one of the most
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: important crypto panels because it will have a lot of
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: indicators that will come out in terms of how institutional
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: capital is getting prepared. And remember understanding these markets in
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: these states in which we are right now, if we
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: do see a market regression, these are going to be
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: great opportunities just to get back in and buy because
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: right now, obviously Bitcoin holding out fairly strong. If you
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: guys aren't subscribed to the channel, make sure and do that.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: And last up, I wanted to hit on this news
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: and that was this right here. Robinhood now planning a
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: blockchain based platform for US securities trading in Europe, and
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: of course Solana and Arbitram have been both under consideration,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: so this could start to lead to other activities within
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: the Robinhood markets platform. I anticipate we're going to see
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of things coming from Robinhood. Well they better
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: have a lot of things coming, because there's a lot
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: of promises out there right now on Robinhood. Taking a
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: look finally at the markets, bitcoin holding is still around
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: ninety six y four if you compare that to what's
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: happening with Ethereum still holding it around eighteen hundred bucks,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: so market I think will be a little bit sideways here.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Of course, continue to watch this right here, subscribe to
• 51:56
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• 51:59
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• 52:01
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• 52:04
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• 52:06
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• 52:08
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• 52:10
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• 52:12
  Speaker 1: the markets, Follow me out there on X and we'll
• 52:15
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