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Episode 38 - 5/7/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 38 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
• 0:33
  Everyone Happy Tuesday? Another day here in the arena,
• 0:37
  guys, and another day filled with MLB and NHL playoffs.
• 0:41
  NBA playoffs. It's a great time to be alive,
• 0:43
  great day to be betting on sports because there's a lot of
• 0:46
  good games I like here for today.
• 0:48
  So I want to mention that I have a six pack of sweats excited to
• 0:51
  share with you guys today, including four Major League
• 0:53
  Baseball bats, three of which are sharp.
• 0:55
  Another one is not that sharp, but it's a value play.
• 0:57
  It's a very good team at a very low, very, very low chalk price
• 1:02
  I should say. So we'll talk about that.
• 1:04
  Also, have an NHL bet for you tonight, which will be coming to
• 1:07
  you from our friends at Juice Reel who have a Juice Reel Robo
• 1:11
  Jackson match tonight. And if you don't know, Robo
• 1:14
  Jackson is our buddy. It's not a real person, It's AAI
• 1:18
  Bot who basically Combs over all the betting data and comes up
• 1:21
  with the two best bets of the day for Juice Reel.
• 1:24
  So stay tuned for that. And then also I got an NBA bet
• 1:27
  for you. It's an NBA bet that I myself
• 1:29
  like and then I popped open my Rhythm app and rhythm.
• 1:32
  It's not a prop bet. It is a game bet here with a
• 1:35
  good edge from rhythm. Also I'm going to finish up the
• 1:37
  pod with a series bet for you in the NBA saying hey let's hit
• 1:41
  this right now before the series gets started.
• 1:43
  It's a pretty low chalk price and hopefully if this team gets
• 1:46
  off to a good start we'll get some immediate CLV.
• 1:49
  So six pack in NBA series bet for tonight.
• 1:52
  Now looking back toward yesterday guys, good news.
• 1:55
  MLB continues to stay hot three and O with our Major League
• 1:58
  Baseball bets. The Rangers came through.
• 2:00
  Walker, Texas Ranger. The Pirates.
• 2:02
  The Phillies unfortunately went O and two with our NHL and NBA
• 2:07
  bets. Dante Devincenzo over 3 1/2
• 2:10
  rebounds. He can only get us three.
• 2:12
  Come on Devincenzo, you couldn't bring down one more board.
• 2:15
  That was a bit frustrating. Then this was kind of a like,
• 2:19
  I'm rooting for my team but like don't score too much.
• 2:21
  The Boston Bruins under 5 1/2. There were no goals through the
• 2:25
  first period. Looking pretty good.
• 2:27
  Then my Bruins erupted, which again wasn't a good thing for
• 2:30
  the under 5 1/2. It ends up being a 5 to one
• 2:32
  game. It goes slightly over lands on
• 2:35
  six goals. But I tell you what guys, as a
• 2:37
  Bruins fan I'm so proud of the way they played last night.
• 2:40
  I'll take an L with my under 5 1/2.
• 2:42
  Although I must say you know, pulling your goalie with 5
• 2:45
  minutes left. I think the Bruins scored an
• 2:47
  empty net goal like maybe 2 minutes left.
• 2:48
  I'm like is there any chance we can you know, rob the bank and
• 2:51
  not get caught? But Nope there was an empty net
• 2:53
  goal from De Brusk so couldn't get that Boston Bruins under.
• 2:56
  But the bees are up one O 1 the series which you love to see as
• 2:59
  a Bruins fan. So overall basically a a
• 3:02
  Washington 3 and 2 -, 0.1 units. So let's see if we can get a
• 3:07
  winning day today and stack a unit or two here into our
• 3:11
  account. So as I mentioned 6 pack four
• 3:13
  MLB one NHL bet from juice reel one NBA bet from rhythm and a
• 3:18
  NBA series price for today. So let's get right into what's
• 3:21
  been making us money. The Major League Baseball slate
• 3:24
  MLB big day today. 15 games overall and I have a bunch of
• 3:28
  games that caught my eye. To be honest with you guys, I
• 3:30
  have 4 bets that I got down on and I'm.
• 3:32
  I'll breakdown with you guys here today.
• 3:34
  I could have had five or six. But I think with baseball if you
• 3:37
  ever want to err on the side of, you know, having too many plays
• 3:40
  or laying off a few, I'd always say layoff a few.
• 3:42
  Remember, it's a very long season.
• 3:44
  There is a lot of volatility. We got our finger on the pulse
• 3:46
  of MLB right now. Don't force it.
• 3:48
  Don't bet too many games. Let's just play the system
• 3:51
  matches that are obvious to us. So first system match that was
• 3:54
  obvious to me. Early game here.
• 3:56
  I'm going right back to the well with the buckles, baby.
• 3:59
  Give me the Pirates. I got the Pirates earlier today
• 4:01
  at -130. Let's set the stage here.
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  Pirates came through for us last night, 17 and 19 on the year,
• 4:08
  but they won four to one. Has a -, 170.
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  Home favorite. Angels 12 and 23.
• 4:13
  They've struggled. Remember, they start off pretty
• 4:15
  good. Then my trout got hurt and the
• 4:16
  wheels have fallen off. So I don't know if this is as
• 4:18
  much a bet on Pittsburgh as it is a bet against the Halos
• 4:22
  before the pitching match up tonight.
• 4:23
  Hopefully it benefits the Pirates.
• 4:25
  They're going with Quinn Priester, who's O and two, but a
• 4:28
  respectable 3.31 ERA. You look at the Angels, they're
• 4:31
  going with Patrick Sandoval, one and five, 5.91 ERA.
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  So why do we like or why do I like Pittsburgh?
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  And why would you know should you consider playing Pittsburgh
• 4:40
  today? Well, right off the bat, pretty
• 4:42
  good steam moving their favorite.
• 4:43
  The Pirates open this game around a -, 120 home favorite.
• 4:46
  We've now seen the Pirates get up to -130.
• 4:49
  So again, indicator to me with Steam is at least $0.10 or more.
• 4:52
  That's what gets me excited. Boom, we have that 10 cent Steam
• 4:55
  move in favor of Pittsburgh. Now the Pirates are getting
• 4:58
  around 75% of bets in dollars on the money line.
• 5:01
  So basically one way support from both Pros and Joes.
• 5:04
  However, if you look at some system matches here, quite a few
• 5:08
  are lighting up with Pittsburgh. One would be a classic just non
• 5:10
  division favorite or interleague favorite.
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  So lack of familiarity benefiting the better team but
• 5:15
  in particular interleague favorites off a win.
• 5:18
  Remember Pirates won last night for us.
• 5:20
  That system matches 46 and 2961% with a 5% ROI so would match
• 5:25
  here with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh also has the better
• 5:28
  bullpen. Hopefully they shut down the
• 5:30
  Angels here in the later innings.
• 5:32
  They have an ERA of 3.76 versus 5.17.
• 5:35
  I believe the Angels have the maybe the second worst bullpen
• 5:38
  in baseball. Also, if you look at the way the
• 5:41
  Pirates are pitching recently, their last ten games, the
• 5:43
  Pirates have a team ERA of 2.83. The Angels have a team ERA of 6.
• 5:48
  So again, hopefully that continues with the advantage on
• 5:50
  the bump for the buckos. Also classic correlative betting
• 5:54
  value, which would be a favorite low total so favorite here
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  Pittsburgh -130. This total is 7 1/2.
• 5:59
  Looks like there might have been some under money because I saw
• 6:02
  some eights that immediately fell down to 7 1/2.
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  But that would be a good thing because again, if your amount of
• 6:07
  expected run scored more likely to come from that better team
• 6:09
  Pittsburgh. And then a little cherry on top,
• 6:11
  nothing amazing. But Rob Drake, he is the home
• 6:14
  plate umpire here tonight. He's one of the best home play
• 6:16
  dumps in baseball. Home teams win 55% of the time
• 6:20
  when Rob Drake is the home play dump.
• 6:22
  So it's a right back to the well with the buckles they came
• 6:25
  through for us last night. Let's see if they can do it
• 6:27
  again tonight with a nice little steam move with some system
• 6:30
  matches in early fave off a win. I'm on Pittsburgh.
• 6:34
  I got the Pirates at -130. Next bet for you.
• 6:37
  I'm going to call this I I alluded to it when we started
• 6:40
  the pod, a value play but maybe not exactly a sharp play and the
• 6:44
  the system match. Here is Philly guys, how do we
• 6:48
  not continue to ride Philly? Unbelievable.
• 6:50
  Philly's at home against Toronto today and I'll tell you why.
• 6:53
  It's not a sharp bet because the line really hasn't moved.
• 6:55
  You know it opened around Philly -125 -, 130, it's pretty much
• 7:00
  stayed around -125, maybe a couple books have dipped down a
• 7:03
  little bit, you know -130 to -125.
• 7:06
  So it doesn't have that element of you know big steam or reverse
• 7:09
  line move or 5050 line move. Philly is getting a majority
• 7:12
  bets in this one. However, I don't think we can
• 7:14
  pass up Philly at this price at home the way they're playing
• 7:17
  especially going up against Toronto today.
• 7:20
  So match up here that is important to me.
• 7:22
  Couple things going on. Number one, look at all these
• 7:25
  teams have played. Toronto is 3 and 9.
• 7:27
  Their last twelve games, they've struggled.
• 7:29
  Philly is 10 and one. Their last eleven.
• 7:31
  They even had shortstop Trey Turner get hurt.
• 7:34
  Hasn't mattered. They've continued to roll.
• 7:36
  And you know, we bet the Phillies yesterday at what,
• 7:38
  -210? I mean, they're usually laying
• 7:41
  -150 -, 175 -, 200. We're getting them at a pretty
• 7:45
  cheap -125 at home. That's a play I'm going to make
• 7:48
  every time. Now you're asking yourself if
• 7:51
  basically the Toronto's played so poorly, Phillies played so
• 7:54
  well, why is this such a short number?
• 7:56
  Well, I think it's the respect for Jose Barrillos.
• 7:58
  I got to admit, he's off to a great start for Toronto.
• 8:01
  He's four and two with a 1.44 ERA, But Christopher Sanchez,
• 8:05
  the lefty for Philly, he's not that bad.
• 8:08
  Sanchez is one and three, but a 3.68 ERA and what I'm going to
• 8:12
  bank on with the Phills. Not only a good team at home was
• 8:15
  red hot right now, but they're bats.
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  They're hitting 256 versus only 226 for Toronto.
• 8:21
  They would also be much better with the long ball. 44 homers
• 8:24
  versus 3000 and 78 runs scored versus 128.
• 8:28
  And they do match some system matches here.
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  So one would be a favorite. Low total.
• 8:32
  Philly around a -, 125 favorite total and it's one of eight.
• 8:35
  Again, fair amount of expected runs scored.
• 8:37
  More likely to come from the better team and interleague
• 8:40
  favorite and interleague favorite off a win.
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  So interleague favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting the
• 8:44
  better team and then interleague favorite off a win.
• 8:47
  Mentioned that was the same system match with Pittsburgh 46
• 8:50
  and 2020, 46 and 2961% with a 5% ROI.
• 8:56
  So you add it all up here guys. Again, not a classic obvious
• 8:59
  $0.10 team move, but a good team at a pretty cheap chalk price
• 9:03
  here. Maybe we beat the closing line,
• 9:04
  maybe this sticks up a little bit later as we get closer to
• 9:07
  first pitch. But I'm going to go with Philly
• 9:09
  here who's 10 and one their last 11 and is only laying -125 at
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  home against a Toronto team that has not been very good lately.
• 9:15
  So give me Philly value but not sharp.
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  Got the phills at -125 Next up, it's an expensive price but it
• 9:23
  reminds me quite a bit of aforementioned Philly from
• 9:26
  yesterday. Remember Philly at home, we
• 9:28
  actually beat the closing line yesterday Philly had a six one
• 9:31
  win. I think we got a -, 210 -, 220.
• 9:33
  They closed like -230. So again even though price might
• 9:36
  seem high, if you can beat the closing line, that's always a
• 9:38
  good sign. So anyway today's version of a
• 9:41
  big price chalk price is Baltimore.
• 9:43
  I'm going with the OS today guys.
• 9:45
  Baltimore is on the road at Washington, and this is a big
• 9:48
  number. I got Baltimore at minus.
• 9:51
  I got them at -195. At one book, they're closer to
• 9:54
  -200 -, 2 O 5, even -210. I see a -, 220 out there.
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  So of course have multiple outs, be able to shop around may not
• 10:02
  seem like a big deal, but if you can save 2 cents, $0.05 on each
• 10:06
  bet throughout the course of a very long regular season, that
• 10:09
  can add up to multiple units in the end.
• 10:11
  But anyway, let's set the stage. Orioles 23 and 11.
• 10:14
  They've won six of their last seven.
• 10:15
  They just swept the Reds, which is really weird.
• 10:18
  Serious because the Reds were sharp like every game and
• 10:20
  Baltimore just kept winning. But it tells you how good the
• 10:23
  O's are. They won that series finale 11
• 10:25
  to one as a + 110 row dog against the Reds.
• 10:28
  Meanwhile, the Nats got to give them some some respect.
• 10:31
  They're 500 this year, 17 and 17.
• 10:33
  They just took two or three against the Blue Jays.
• 10:35
  They won 11:00 to 8:00 on Sunday as a -, 115 home favorite.
• 10:39
  So pitching match up here tonight we have Corbin Burns.
• 10:42
  Remember the stud from the Brewers who got acquired by
• 10:45
  Baltimore in the offseason 3 and one 2.61 ERA?
• 10:49
  He'll be opposed by righty Trevor Williams, who's three and
• 10:51
  O with a 2.27 ERA. So what have we seen across the
• 10:54
  board here? Well, even though it's a big
• 10:56
  price, pros don't seem to be worried about laying this big
• 10:59
  chalk. Baltimore's got a line move.
• 11:00
  They open as low as -190, as I mentioned, they're up to, We'll
• 11:05
  call it an average of like -210 now at this point.
• 11:07
  So about a $0.20 steam move in favor of Baltimore.
• 11:10
  Baltimore's getting upwards of 90% of money line bets in
• 11:13
  dollars, so lopsided pro and Joe action along with that steam
• 11:17
  move. Once again, I'm going to bet on
• 11:18
  Baltimore and their offense. They're they're hitting 25154
• 11:23
  homers, 180 runs scored. Washington sitting, 23331
• 11:28
  homers, 142 runs scored. Also, we got some system matches
• 11:32
  on Baltimore. Actually a lot 1 will be a road
• 11:34
  favorite. Very simple system, but one O 5
• 11:37
  and 7160% with a 5% ROI this year.
• 11:40
  Interleague favorites. Interleague favorites off a win
• 11:43
  61% and then also both teams had the previous day off.
• 11:48
  Take the favorite. Very simple, but really that
• 11:50
  extra day of rest benefits the better team.
• 11:53
  That system is 464 and two 8261% with a 3% ROI since 2020.
• 12:00
  And then lastly, this is a system that I've kind of, you
• 12:02
  know, just stumbled upon playing Baltimore quite a bit last
• 12:06
  couple years. But the OS really feast on bad
• 12:08
  teams. The Orioles against teams who
• 12:10
  missed the playoffs the previous year, they're 60 and 2471
• 12:15
  percent, 18% ROI since the start of last year.
• 12:19
  And oh, by the way, Baltimore 11:00 and 4:00 on the road,
• 12:21
  Washington 6:00 and 9:00 and home.
• 12:23
  So I know it's a big price. My guy, Gary Garrison said, hey,
• 12:26
  you know, Baltimore, how, how do I play that?
• 12:27
  It's a big number, -220 or -210. Always remember, no matter
• 12:32
  whether it's Philly -130, Baltimore -210 every play I
• 12:37
  would always recommend bet to risk not bet to win.
• 12:40
  Because if you bet to risk it'll save you.
• 12:42
  If you lose on a favorite. For example, you bet Baltimore
• 12:45
  -210, bet to risk, not bet to win.
• 12:48
  They win the game you you get about 1/2 unit back.
• 12:51
  If they lose, you just lose your one unit.
• 12:53
  If you bet to win on Baltimore, you'd have to risk 2.1 units to
• 12:57
  win one. If they lose, you lose 2.1
• 12:59
  units. So again, whole point is protect
• 13:01
  yourself on favorites and on a dog you'll get a better payout
• 13:04
  as well. So always remember that bet.
• 13:05
  Risk, not win. Let's go Baltimore.
• 13:08
  I got the OS a little bit earlier today, around -195, but
• 13:12
  now you're looking at around -210.
• 13:15
  Last bet for you. 4th and final sweat for tonight.
• 13:18
  I can't wait to sweat this guy. I I see that his numbers are
• 13:21
  incredible and I haven't actually watched him pitch yet.
• 13:23
  Shota Imanaga. Shoto Imanaga.
• 13:28
  I actually wish the Red Sox picked him up.
• 13:29
  Or actually Shota Shotay. I don't even know how to
• 13:31
  pronounce. Anyway.
• 13:33
  San Diego at the Chicago Cubs. I'm going with the Cubbies here,
• 13:35
  guys. Let's set the stage.
• 13:37
  San Diego is 19 and 19 on the year.
• 13:40
  They won the opener last night. Six to three at Wrigley Field as
• 13:43
  a -, 1 O five Rd. Dogg.
• 13:44
  Tonight's rematch. It's all about the starting
• 13:46
  pitcher. Head to
• 14:02
  I'll get that in a second. But anyway, this line open with
• 14:05
  Chicago around a -, 150 home favorite.
• 14:08
  Some books were even like -145, now they're up to -160 and some
• 14:13
  shops are even higher, closer to -170.
• 14:15
  So this is just one way steam in favor of Chicago with no buyback
• 14:19
  whatsoever tells us that even though the line's getting a
• 14:21
  little bit more expensive, pros keep hitting it.
• 14:23
  There's been no buyback on San Diego.
• 14:26
  You look at the Cubs are getting 81% of bets, 90% of dollars.
• 14:30
  So good low bets, higher dollars bets split right there with a
• 14:33
  big steam move system. Matches here favorites off a
• 14:36
  loss who have a winning record. So this is something I like to
• 14:39
  do and a lot of people ask me like where do you get your
• 14:41
  systems? I get them from BET Labs, which
• 14:43
  to me is the best database around.
• 14:44
  It gives you all the raw games and outcomes.
• 14:47
  Then you can filter them and and test theories, create your own
• 14:50
  systems then get matches for them.
• 14:52
  But I had a system that was favorites off a loss 134 and
• 14:55
  9359% this year, a 1% ROI. But then I said, what if you're
• 15:00
  a good team off a loss, you're a winning team off a loss, a
• 15:03
  winning favorite off a loss. I should say what I What do I
• 15:06
  mean by winning? You gotta have one percentage of
• 15:07
  51% or more winning teams who are favored and they're coming
• 15:11
  off a loss, 64 and 3565%, nine percent ROI.
• 15:17
  So just from adding in the fact that we're just looking at
• 15:19
  winning teams, we made that fave off a loss system much better,
• 15:23
  went from a 1% ROI to a nine percent ROI.
• 15:26
  And I guess the theory makes a lot of sense.
• 15:28
  If you're a good team, you're more likely to bounce back after
• 15:31
  a loss and win versus a bad team who might lose two in a row.
• 15:34
  But anyway, Chicago, They would be a non division favorite.
• 15:36
  Lack of familiarity benefiting. The better team was expected to
• 15:39
  win, and in Managa they're a perfect six and O.
• 15:42
  When he starts, he's only giving up three runs in 27.2 innings,
• 15:46
  and he is now the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year plus 300.
• 15:50
  Meanwhile, the Padres against lefties, they are one of the
• 15:53
  worst teams in baseball, They're fourth worst in baseball.
• 15:55
  Against lefties, they're only hitting two O 1.
• 15:57
  So Cubbies at home, under the lights.
• 15:59
  At Wrigley with Imanaga on the bump.
• 16:01
  Good sharp steam move. I'm going with the Cubbies.
• 16:05
  I got Chicago earlier today at -160, so a four pack.
• 16:09
  Can we get three or more? Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philly
• 16:12
  and the Chicago Cubs. Now let's move over to the NBA.
• 16:17
  There's a system match here for me in the NBA because this bet
• 16:21
  split jumped out to me and then I popped open my rhythm app.
• 16:24
  Our rhythm is one of the best around, or I would argue the
• 16:27
  best when it comes to AI backed data-driven picks and props.
• 16:30
  But rhythm agreed with me. So I'm going to focus on the
• 16:33
  Mavs in the Thunder tonight. This is game one Western
• 16:36
  Conference Second round here. Remember we had The Mavericks
• 16:40
  beat the Clippers in six games. Meanwhile, OK, C swept New
• 16:43
  Orleans. But right off the bat, you know,
• 16:46
  not a ton of movement here. You know, you opened Oklahoma
• 16:48
  City. I saw one book open, -2, 1/2.
• 16:51
  Most were -3 or 3 1/2 and it's pretty much stayed 3 1/2, but
• 16:55
  you are starting to see the juice creep up like it may go to
• 16:57
  four. So it's not like this ever fell.
• 16:59
  It's basically either stayed the same or moved toward OK C And
• 17:02
  what jumped out to me with OK C is the bet percentage.
• 17:05
  The bet splits 57% of bets, but 83% of the money is on OK C so
• 17:12
  we got a liability, you know, line freeze or move toward OK C,
• 17:16
  really good bet split. Basically only only around half
• 17:19
  the tickets, but more than 2/3 or more than 3/4 of the money.
• 17:23
  And then also a big rest advantage for Oklahoma City.
• 17:27
  OK, City Thunder haven't played since April 29th.
• 17:30
  Meanwhile you look at the Mavs, they last played on the 3rd, so
• 17:34
  3rd of May. So again, that is a big rest
• 17:36
  first tired in favor of OKC. They should be good to go here
• 17:39
  tonight. OKC is 33 and eight at home.
• 17:43
  One of the best home teams in the NBA.
• 17:45
  The regular season record. They had four games against
• 17:48
  Dallas. They went three and one, so
• 17:49
  hopefully they continue to have Dallas's number.
• 17:52
  The metrics tell us that OK CS, the better team offensive
• 17:55
  efficiency third versus 7th for Dallas and big difference
• 17:59
  defensive efficiency 4th versus 16th.
• 18:03
  So if we have a big rest advantage, we have a basically
• 18:07
  line freeze or movement toward OK C great bet split and better
• 18:11
  metrics here, especially at home and head to head.
• 18:13
  This looks like an OK C play to me guys.
• 18:15
  And then when I opened up Rhythm.
• 18:17
  I know with Rhythm we talk a lot about player props.
• 18:20
  Rhythm does a great job with game bets as well.
• 18:22
  So when I open up my rhythm app, I went to game picks and I
• 18:27
  Scroll down and see, hey, what do you guys got for tonight?
• 18:29
  And guess what popped up. One of the first games that
• 18:31
  popped up was Thunder, Money Line Thunder at around -160.
• 18:38
  Basically Rhythm is projecting a 111 to one O 6 final score.
• 18:44
  So technically that would you know, cover the -3 1/2, but I'm
• 18:47
  just going to go money line here.
• 18:48
  Rhythm has a has a edge and a suggestion here, a
• 18:53
  recommendation to bet Thunder money line.
• 18:55
  This is a 64% win probability play with a 3% distance to
• 18:59
  market. Basically they're saying hey we
• 19:01
  have a, you know, basically A5 point difference where you
• 19:04
  you're laying 3 1/2. So it'll be a DTM distance to
• 19:07
  market or difference to market advantage but with rhythm
• 19:11
  projecting OK C with value and liking them on the money line
• 19:15
  like OKC on the money line. So I'm going Thunder money line
• 19:19
  at -160 and I might as well tell you right now I'm also playing a
• 19:23
  Thunder series price here. So I'm going to go OK C to win
• 19:26
  this series. Obviously they have the rest
• 19:29
  advantage going into game one. They also have homecourt.
• 19:32
  So four of the seven games will be at OK C but really it's a
• 19:35
  data-driven play. I got a fresh batch of data from
• 19:38
  BET MGM today and the OK C series price.
• 19:41
  It has ticked up a bit -120 to -125.
• 19:44
  What I really like about this OK C OK C series price is the bet
• 19:48
  split only 49% of bets but 65% of the money is on OK C to win
• 19:54
  the series. So good low bets, higher
• 19:57
  dollars, line move, homecourt advantage, rest advantage.
• 20:00
  I'm going OK C to win this series.
• 20:02
  I got him at -125 and I got him to win the game tonight at -160.
• 20:07
  So I'm a big Thunder fan tonight.
• 20:09
  Staying up late 930 game for those of us who are on the East
• 20:12
  Coast now to finish up today's pod.
• 20:15
  I told you that Robo Jackson, our guy has a play on a game
• 20:19
  tonight in the NHL. And by by our guy, I mean he's
• 20:22
  not a real person. He's a bot, but he's pretty damn
• 20:25
  good at betting. But I'm going to focus on the
• 20:28
  Colorado, Dallas game tonight. So this is game one Western
• 20:32
  Conference Second Round. Now we have seen Dallas pretty
• 20:36
  much remain stagnant around a -, 125 home favorite.
• 20:39
  But I'm going to go the other way and I'm going to take
• 20:41
  Colorado and some plus money tonight.
• 20:43
  So before we get to Robo Jackson, what I like about
• 20:45
  Colorado, couple things, line really hasn't moved at all.
• 20:49
  So it's not like it's ticked up toward Dallas.
• 20:53
  So don't have a line move toward Colorado per SE.
• 20:55
  Pretty much the line hasn't moved at all.
• 20:57
  But I like a good bet split on Colorado.
• 20:59
  They're getting 61% of bets but 77% of the money now.
• 21:03
  Colorado was two and O on the road in their series against The
• 21:07
  Jets. They also have a big rest
• 21:09
  advantage. Colorado hasn't played since
• 21:12
  April 30th, Dallas last played on Sunday.
• 21:15
  So it's a really sharp, really quick turn around for Dallas,
• 21:18
  whereas Colorado's rested and ready to go.
• 21:20
  And I would say the big advantage for the Colorado rest
• 21:23
  is goaltending. Because Georgiev and Ottinger,
• 21:26
  they've both played every game for their respective teams.
• 21:30
  Yet Ottinger played every game and asked to turn around and
• 21:33
  only had one day a rest. Georgiev's been off for quite a
• 21:35
  bit, so hopefully he's rested and ready to go.
• 21:38
  Better offense for Colorado. This would almost, be almost
• 21:40
  like a dog who can score system match.
• 21:42
  They averaged nearly four goals per game and then also regular
• 21:45
  season these teams played four times.
• 21:47
  Colorado won three of those four games.
• 21:50
  Colorado went three and one overall.
• 21:52
  And then to add a little cherry on top, I pop open my My Juice
• 21:57
  Reel app and I go to the juice reel tab my bedding tools and
• 22:02
  then I click juice picks. That will take me to Robo
• 22:05
  Jackson who I love this description.
• 22:07
  A multi sport specialist who has been known to do it all at the
• 22:09
  highest level. Robo Jackson dot AI ingest all
• 22:12
  the data that Juice Reel has to offer it with the and then finds
• 22:15
  the absolute best bets across every sport.
• 22:18
  So Robo Jackson is 235 and 187. That is since basically he was
• 22:24
  created. He was.
• 22:25
  I didn't even know can you say he was born?
• 22:27
  But anyway, that's about a 56% win percentage.
• 22:30
  And Robo Jackson, every single day at noon he puts out two best
• 22:33
  bets and one of them is on Colorado plus one O 5.
• 22:38
  Now the other one, if you want to get it, you're going to have
• 22:40
  to sign up for Juice Reel. But I'm going to tell you to do
• 22:41
  that in one second. But if we have a line freeze on
• 22:44
  Colorado with a rest advantage with a good bet split and Robo
• 22:48
  Jackson also likes Colorado, that's worthwhile to me.
• 22:51
  I'm going to go Colorado ABS tonight, guys.
• 22:53
  Let's see if we can get a dog to bark.
• 22:55
  I got the ABS at plus one O 5, so that about does it for
• 22:59
  episode 38 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast.
• 23:03
  But as always, like to finish up the pod with a few things.
• 23:06
  A few mentions here. First off, if you enjoy this
• 23:09
  pod, if it's become maybe a staple of your of your daily
• 23:12
  handicap, whether you play every bet I recommend or you, you
• 23:15
  tail, you fade or you just listen and maybe pick out one or
• 23:18
  two you like, doesn't matter to me.
• 23:20
  All I care is that that I appreciate that you tune in and
• 23:23
  listen and support the pod. But if you want to help me grow
• 23:25
  the pod, recommend it to a friend.
• 23:28
  But really one thing you can do to make me happy, give this pod
• 23:31
  a five star review on either Spotify or iTunes.
• 23:34
  Just click the five stars. Boom.
• 23:36
  It really goes a long way. Follow the pods you get alerted
• 23:39
  when it comes out. That really help us to grow the
• 23:41
  pod organically. Secondly, I want to make sure
• 23:44
  that you guys sign up for both Rhythm and Juice Reel and I kind
• 23:48
  of felt like every time I tell you guys like oh sign up by
• 23:51
  clicking the the pin tweet on my profile in the like.
• 23:55
  It just became too much. So I tried to streamline it and
• 23:59
  now you can easily sign up for a Rhythm or a Juice Reel free
• 24:02
  trial. Remember Rhythm is your AI
• 24:04
  backed picks and props. Juice Reel is a bet tracker app.
• 24:08
  You can sync your sports books. It gives you recommended plays,
• 24:11
  arbitrage plays. It's really, really incredible.
• 24:14
  So I love them both for different reasons.
• 24:15
  They're both awesome and I only want to team up with apps that I
• 24:18
  feel are data-driven and help help betters win.
• 24:21
  So Juice Reel and Rhythm are at the top of my list.
• 24:23
  But anyway, I want you to sign up for Juice Reel and Rhythm.
• 24:26
  Give them both a shot. 7 day free trial.
• 24:28
  You got nothing to lose and you can do that very easily now by
• 24:32
  just clicking the bio or the description of this podcast
• 24:36
  within your iPhone or Android. It's going to be iTunes or
• 24:39
  Spotify. You click the link for today's
• 24:41
  pod, you start to listen. There should be a drop down with
• 24:44
  a description of the pod. I always say like hey episode,
• 24:47
  you know 38, we got 6 pack of sweats here.
• 24:50
  Then right below it'll say sign up for rhythm, sign up for Juice
• 24:53
  reel. So make sure you click those
• 24:54
  custom links. That's very important 'cause I
• 24:56
  want Juice Reel and Rhythm to know that I am referring people
• 24:59
  to them and helping them grow and helping betters win.
• 25:01
  So just click those links within the description, the bio of the
• 25:05
  pod each day. Lastly, of course, if you enjoy
• 25:09
  these type of breakdowns when it comes to sports betting, you
• 25:11
  want to learn more about how to become a data-driven contrarian
• 25:15
  better. How to basically set up a
• 25:17
  bankroll management plan. How to flat bet.
• 25:19
  How to locate sharp action. How to find RLM or Steam.
• 25:22
  How to go contrarian. How to place place a bet in
• 25:25
  person or online. How to shop for the best line.
• 25:28
  Any of that. If you want to learn more or you
• 25:30
  need you have someone in your life who you want to give them a
• 25:32
  gift. The gift of knowledge, which
• 25:34
  some say is the greatest gift of all.
• 25:36
  Or someone's got a birthday coming up.
• 25:38
  Whatever the case may be, if you want to support the team or need
• 25:42
  a gift to give somebody, just go to Amazon.com and type in the
• 25:46
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 25:48
  That's my book. That's my baby.
• 25:50
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry and will help
• 25:53
  you to have something you can hold in your hand right in the
• 25:55
  margins. Refer back to, or either way,
• 25:58
  support the team. Because I'm very proud of the
• 26:00
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 26:01
  I never left my Gloucester apartment for four months in the
• 26:05
  summer of 20. When was it?
• 26:06
  2018? And I'm pretty proud of the way
• 26:09
  it came out. So it's great for new betters.
• 26:11
  But even if you're a, you know, medium to advance better, I got
• 26:14
  a lot of good Nuggets and betting systems in there.
• 26:16
  So give it a shot, pick up a copy, and when I see it, the
• 26:19
  book, I'm going to buy you a beer.
• 26:20
  And if you don't drink, I'm going to buy you a Diet Coke or
• 26:23
  whatever you want. Maybe some, some, I don't know,
• 26:26
  Sprite, and I'll sign the copy of the book for you and we'll,
• 26:28
  we'll sweat some sharp contrarian plays together.
• 26:30
  But if you've already bought it, thank you.
• 26:32
  If you really want to make my day, give it five stars on
• 26:34
  Amazon in a good review. That would also make my day.
• 26:36
  But anyway, guys, that about does it for episode 38 of the
• 26:39
  All Systems Go Sports Betting Pod.
• 26:41
  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 26:44
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods, or Mohegan
• 26:47
  Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
• 26:49
  encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, or MGM Springfield
• 26:52
  in my neck of the woods. Or, of course, out in the desert
• 26:54
  where the true grinders get down.
• 26:56
  Where Billy Walters sends his number runners where lowest use
• 26:58
  possible is found. The South Point or sweating
• 27:00
  sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool at
• 27:03
  Circa when you cash. AI don't know a Rangers or a
• 27:06
  Pirates or a Phillies bet. Guess what?
• 27:08
  You're going to walk up to me and you are going to flash me a
• 27:12
  Rangers, Pirates or Phillies ticket.
• 27:14
  And guess what? We are going to cash those
• 27:17
  tickets and then we're going to sweat sharp Conturian plays all
• 27:19
  night long. So wish you the best of luck.
• 27:21
  Everyone have a fantastic Tuesday.
• 27:24
  We back at it tomorrow for episode 39 of the All Systems
• 27:27
  Gopod. Can you believe almost 39
• 27:29
  episodes? I feel like we just created this
• 27:30
  pod like yesterday, but it's great to see that we continue to
• 27:34
  grind and and turn out pods each day and grow the community.
• 27:38
  That's what I'm most excited and proud of.
• 27:40
  But anyway guys, some parting words as I like to instill on
• 27:43
  you guys as we leave and finish up every pod.
• 27:46
  Stay sharp, stay contrarian, Bet against the public.
• 27:48
  Place yourself on the side of the house.
• 27:50
  Always be with the smart money, never against it.
• 27:52
  Will smart money win every time? No.
• 27:54
  The Bruins under 5 1/2 with smart money.
• 27:56
  They just they're too good. They scored too many times last
• 27:59
  night. But guess what?
• 28:00
  If we can consistently find that sweet spot games that fit our
• 28:03
  model against the public with the house, with the pros flat
• 28:06
  bet. Avoid parlays and get some CLV.
• 28:08
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 28:11
  So enjoy the sweats tonight, guys.
• 28:13
  Lot of baseball, playoff hockey, playoff basketball.
• 28:15
  Let's see if we can cash them tickets tonight.
• 28:17
  I'll see you guys tomorrow for episode 39 of the All Systems Go
• 28:21
  Sports Betting Podcast. Good luck.