Latest / The SME Stream / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the Performance of Services Index taking a dive

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the Performance of Services Index taking a dive · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Bryan Bridge.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: This gets to the markets nineteen after six for Shane
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: Solly Harbor Raset Management Shane good evening, get it right,
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: so do well. Bit of a surprise for the markets today,
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: wasn't it with the announcement the statement from the governor
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: at the Reserve Bank.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so new governor and a Bremen dilvid probably a
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: little bit of an early Christmas present for markets and
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: indeed the economy. By calling the risk of rate hikes.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: What she said was in quite strongly worded comments, very
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: much sort of designed to push back on market pricing
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: of interest rate hikes. Next year, Governor Bremen reinforced the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: official cash rate likely to remain at two twenty five
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: for some time. She said, the New Zealand economy is
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: in line with Novemburg expectations that market conditions have tightened
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: more than the manager policy statement imply so a bit
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: of a reprieve there. Markets reacted quite positively. We saw
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: probably the most important one for a mortgage holders, a
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: three year swap rate shoes as a reference point for
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: some bank mortgages. It fell just under zero point one
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: percent zero point nine to be act to three thirty
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: one still well above their recent love mid October and
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: two point six percent. New Zealand dollar pulled back a
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: little bit from its recent high as against the US
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: started to close at fifty seven to seventy. New Zealand
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Shire market quite liked it almost one percent, led by
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: strength and fishing and Bocal Healthcare, which has benefiting from
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: unfortunately an outbreak of flu in the northern hemisphere looks
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: bad at milk and a bit of a bounce back
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: from recent weakness. And Auckland Airport was up on improving
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: traffic treams. So yeah, certainly the market's liked that update.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Well, it's just refreshing, isn't it really to have?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's actually very your helpful. It's a good
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: timing to be.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: Doing this, absolutely, particularly because we've got to wait until
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: February before we get our next meeting. Now the PS
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: signed this is our performance of services in dix and
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: New Zealand. Data was released a bit soft again today.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just telling us this service industry remains pretty mild.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Fell to forty six point nine and they've got down
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: from forty eight point four in October. Look, it's it's
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: reading below fifty that means we're contracting services index is
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: now read below fifty for twenty one straight months. This
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: is a real you know a lot of people out
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: there will know this, but this data remains pretty pretty challenging.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: And so when we mix that with last week's stronger
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: manufacturing data, that sort of composite indicator suggests that we're
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: still going to see downside risk to even a modest
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: New Zealand growth number for early twenty twenty six. Governor
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Breman's comments tonight today, we're pretty timely.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely much much needed given the state of play there,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: and of course services is a big chunk of the economy.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: To the US, the share market down last week. This
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: is on the soft tech results, yeah.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: And down quarter percent zero point two five percent, but
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: really weighed by some of the artificial intelligence heavyweights like Auricon, Broadcom.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So we've seen some deflation in this US semiconductor share
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: price bubble that people are quite rightly focusing on. So
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the semiconductor in DIX includes big companies like a Video
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: was down at six percent last week and that magnificent
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: seven group of companies, So it's quite a big chunk
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: of global shear market benchmarks that most qbs have a
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: growth and balance funds have an allocation too. But it's
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: been a really good place to invest Ryan over the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: last twelve months. Indeed, you know that semiconductor in Dix
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: is up eighty one percent year to day, so a
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: little bit of a pullback after a big role. What
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: we are seeing the RYAN is a rotation of performance
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: to either industry seek the centers that benefit from lower
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: US federal interest rates strong reconod make it to be
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: things like financial as commodities industrials. So they are providing
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: a bit of a one office to the US tech pullback.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: So you know, we can sort of breathe easily at
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: this stage. And there are other things still providing some
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: support for qbs however, and of course we've got chat
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: GPT five point two released overnight. It's got people very excited,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: so you never know, you never know, all right.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: We live in hope and also hope for a big
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty six on the stock market, hopefully the local
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: economy as well. Shane, good to have you on the
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: program has always Shane's Soley Harbor Acent Management. For more
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks.
• 4:09
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• 4:12
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