Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 250 - 4/4/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 250 - 4/4/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 250 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
0:39
end. We got Final Four weekend upon
0:41
us. If you're like me in New
0:43
England, the weather's getting better.
0:44
I'm doing yard work. I can go out in the backyard,
0:47
listen to the Red Sox game and rake and hang with my dog
0:50
outside. So I'm happy.
0:52
I'm turning into my dad, by the way, who always used to do that.
0:55
But anyway, guys, hope you are doing great here to finish up
0:58
the the first month or first week of April I should say.
1:01
And for today, we're going to wrap up the week hopefully with
1:04
some, some good hits because we have another 3 pack of MLB
1:07
sweats for you guys. A big slate today with 14 games
1:11
overall. A lot of home openers.
1:13
I can tell you a lot of buzz in New England as the Red Sox are
1:16
back at Fenway Park. I wish I was going to the game,
1:18
but actually I'm going to go to the game a little bit later.
1:21
I think we have tickets in June to go to Fenway.
1:23
So looking very much forward to that.
1:25
But once the Sox are back at Fenway, you know, spring is in
1:28
the air. You know, summer isn't that far
1:30
off. So we will have a three pack of
1:32
MLB plays for you. Again, we're starting to refine
1:35
our model. We're looking at the current
1:37
movement across the market, looking at what a line opened at
1:40
you know, if a team's getting $0.10 or more of steam has a
1:43
good bet split and then marrying that present day movement with
1:47
the historical betting data. So really leaning on our system
1:49
matches, which produced some some good games last night.
1:53
So a three pack of only MLB plays for today.
1:55
Of course, we're going to try to go 2 and one eke out a winning
1:58
day to finish up the week. And then I do have my one
2:01
official bet for the final four tomorrow.
2:03
I hit on it yesterday, but I'm going to revisit it today.
2:06
And then I'm going to give you a couple leans, which to me are
2:10
close to firing on, but I want to continue to wait for a
2:13
specific number and see how it develops going into tomorrow.
2:16
But I just want to remind you guys, even though we don't have
2:19
an ASG pod on the weekend, you can still get my insights by
2:22
just going to my Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
2:25
I will be tweeting out everyday my articles that I write for
2:29
visen.com so you can find the final Four Sharp report for
2:32
tomorrow as well as the MLB Sharp report for Sunday.
2:36
So looking forward to that. Now turning the the clock back
2:39
to yesterday, guys, good winning night 2 and 1 + 0.68 units.
2:44
Had a couple nice hits, starting first with the Yankees.
2:47
The Yankees got a big nine to three and I said, oh, we don't
2:50
got to sweat this one. But then they gave up a Grand
2:52
Slam to make it 9:00 to 7:00. Luckily, they brought in Luke
2:55
Weaver who shut the door. So Yankees got a big win.
2:58
It was also kind of a teachable moment because if you remember
3:01
going in that game, Merrill Kelly had a great ERA and Carlos
3:05
Carrasco had a terrible ERA. Anytime you kind of see the line
3:08
go to the team with the worst pitcher, that's always kind of a
3:11
fishy dead giveaway. So the fact that, you know, on
3:14
paper, Merrill Kelly was way better than Carlos Carrasco.
3:17
You know, you would think the line would, you know, kind of
3:19
move toward Merrill Kelly in Arizona.
3:21
No, it's got steamed up toward Carrasco, who had a ridiculously
3:24
high ERAI always like it when it it's fishy.
3:27
Doesn't make sense and you play the fishy side.
3:30
So the Yankees came through Milwaukee Brew crew hung on one.
3:33
Nothing nice. Nice winner there.
3:36
Great bullpen performance from the the beer makers shutting the
3:39
door there. So got a nice nice hit late
3:41
night with Milwaukee. Only loser was the Twins.
3:44
Twins got me excited. They got up to a A2 nothing lead
3:47
to start the game. I said, oh, we're looking pretty
3:49
good here. And then they give up a bunch of
3:51
home runs and lose 5:00 to 2:00. But either way, guys, baseball
3:55
volume sport, 33 bets a day. You know, maybe at some point
4:00
we'll go, you know, 5 bets a day for a day.
4:02
But really the goal is you got 3.
4:03
Let's try to go 2 and one and grind out as many two and one
4:07
days as we possibly can. If you extrapolate that across a
4:10
very long, arduous MLB season, again, a lot of ups and downs,
4:15
but to me, that's a way to hopefully provide a blueprint to
4:18
a winning year. So with that being said, let's
4:21
dive right in. I got 3 plays for you.
4:23
Let's not waste any more time. So first play of the day for me.
4:27
This is a 4:12 PM Eastern Time first pitch with the
4:30
aforementioned New York Yankees visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates.
4:34
So let's set the stage. Talk some line movement.
4:36
I'll give you my play for this one.
4:38
So going into it, this interleague matchup, we got the
4:40
Yankees four and two on the year, dropped two or three
4:43
against the D backs, but did get a big winner for us yesterday,
4:46
avoiding the sweep. Remember, we also had that
4:48
system that came through. You lose the 1st 2:00, your
4:51
favorite in the third game to avoid the sweep.
4:53
That's been a good system we'll lean on moving forward this
4:56
year. But it came through last night.
4:58
Yankees won nine to seven as a -, 135 home favorite member.
5:02
We got him like -120 so got some CLV there again, which was nice.
5:06
Meanwhile, the Pirates two and five just lost two or three
5:08
against the Rays, but they did avoid the sweep.
5:10
They won that series finale 4 to 2 the other day as a -, 115 road
5:14
favorite. So pitching match up for today.
5:16
We got the Yankees going with lefty Max Freed, who they gave a
5:20
big deal to over the offseason. Took him from the Braves.
5:23
He's O&O 3.86 ERA to start the year.
5:26
Pirates are going to send out the righty Mitch Keller, he's
5:29
one and O with a 1.5 O ERA. So what have you seen across the
5:32
market here? Well, I'm getting right back on
5:35
the New York Yankees bandwagon. Yes, I'm a Sox fan, but I'm
5:39
sweating, sweating the Yanks here.
5:40
Yankees open this game as around a -, 145 road favorite and the
5:45
Yankees have now been steamed up all the way to around -160 -,
5:49
165 some shops even as high as -170.
5:53
So it's very clear here we got big steam hitting New York,
5:56
causing that line move in their favor.
5:58
If you look at Circa out in Vegas, we have the Yankees
6:01
getting 88% of money line bets, 98% of money line dollars.
6:05
So really good low bets, higher dollar split out in the desert.
6:09
When you see big line moves like this, on the one hand, you say
6:12
to yourself, man, I wish I could have gotten Yankees -145 now
6:15
they're -165 but I wouldn't fixate too much on that.
6:19
Hey, it's already moved. You're not going to get that
6:21
number again. Look at it the other way and
6:24
say, hey, even though I might be paying a higher price on New
6:26
York, NY here, it does tell me that they keep getting pounded
6:30
by smart money causing that line to move in their favor.
6:33
Now the Yankees are matching quite a few betting systems
6:36
here. If we look at non division
6:38
favorites with steam $0.10 or more, they're 23 and 10 this
6:42
year. 70% seventeen percent ROI. Rd. favorite with steam against
6:47
the team who missed the playoffs the previous year.
6:49
Small sample, but that's 8:00 and 5:00 to start the season. 62
6:52
percent 3% ROI Interleague favorite, lack of familiarity
6:56
benefiting the better team. Interleague favorites off a win.
6:59
16 and five this year. 76 percent 25% ROI.
7:04
Also have a system. Non division Rd. favorite off a
7:06
win and road favorites with steam $0.10 or more.
7:09
Those teams are 11:00 and 6:00 to start the year. 65%, so quite
7:13
a few system matches on the Yankees.
7:16
Yankees. I also like the fact that it is
7:18
a correlative betting play looking at favorites with low
7:21
totals from if we're playing dogs, you want a high total If
7:24
you're on a dog. More expected run scored, more
7:26
variants, more upset opportunities.
7:28
Favorite with a low total, fewer amount of expected run scored.
7:32
More likely to come from quote UN quote the better team who's
7:35
favored that day. So this total here open at 8,
7:38
down to 7 1/2 with the line moving toward the Yankees.
7:41
Hopefully that bodes well for a, you know, a low scoring Yankees
7:44
win with the line going to the favorite and the total dropping.
7:48
Now, New York has a couple big edges that jumped out to me.
7:52
And really, the big one here is the offense turning 278 on the
7:55
year. They've already hit 22 home
7:57
runs, 53 runs scored. Pittsburgh's only hitting $1.97
8:02
below the Mendoza Line. Four home runs, nineteen runs
8:05
scored. Also, I noticed the Pirates
8:07
against lefties this year. I know it's a small sample, but
8:10
they're they're hitting .077. They're hitting less than 100
8:15
against lefties this year. They're facing Max Free, who
8:17
again, who knows them pretty well from being the NL with the
8:20
Braves. So you got it all up here guys.
8:23
Big steam on the Bronx Bombers, tons of system matches, low
8:26
bets, higher dollar bet split as well as good offensive
8:29
advantages in the Pirates struggle against lefties.
8:32
This is a Yankees play for me. So I'm right on the Yankees
8:34
bandwagon again today. I got New York at -165 next one
8:39
for you. 4:35 PM Eastern Time, first pitch Seattle Mariners
8:43
visiting the San Francisco G men now going into it, we got the
8:47
Mariners three and four on the year.
8:49
Just lost two or three against the Tigers, but did avoid the
8:51
sweep. They won the series finale 3:00
8:53
to 2:00 as a plus one O 5 home dog.
8:56
On the flip side, the G Men off to a great start, 5:00 and 1:00,
8:59
just swept the Astros. They won that series finale six
9:02
to three as a + 145 road dog. So pitching matchup for this
9:06
one, we have Luis Castillo going for Seattle.
9:09
But it's not that Luis Castillo. It's not the stud who was on the
9:13
Reds and got traded to Seattle. It's Luis F Castillo who has no
9:17
record this year. He's a 30 year old journeyman
9:20
and he's making his first MLB appearance since 2022.
9:24
So you if you see like on your live odds page or you know,
9:27
wherever you get your your lines, it might say El Castillo.
9:30
It's not that El Castillo. It's a different guy, which I
9:33
think is important here. Meanwhile, G men, we all know
9:36
who they're playing starting here, Justin Verlander O&O 3.6
9:40
OERA this year. So what have you seen across the
9:43
market? It looks like pros are back in
9:45
San Fran fading the other Castillo this game open with San
9:49
Francisco listed around a -, 1 -, 125 home favorite.
9:54
And we've now seen San Fran get steamed up to -145 -, 150.
9:58
So big movement here in favor of the G men.
10:01
Now DraftKings giants are taking in about 80% of money line bets
10:06
in dollars. So it looks to me just like a
10:07
pro and Joe bet split. You know, maybe the public just
10:10
says, hey, San Fran's got the better record.
10:11
They're at home. They, you know, know, and love
10:14
Verlander. Whereas wise guys said, no, we
10:17
like the number when that was -125 hammered it because maybe
10:20
to start they had this thing closer to -150 a lot of system
10:25
matches here on San Fran. We can rattle them off here.
10:28
Home favorites, great to start the year, they're 43 and 2266
10:32
percent, 10% ROI. Interleague home favorites, 22
10:36
and 1069 percent, 13% ROI. This year, non division home
10:41
favorites off a win with Steam $0.10 or more, 17 and three.
10:45
Incredible record to start the year.
10:47
Knock on wood, 85%, thirty, 7% ROI.
10:51
Another correlative betting play.
10:53
San Fran is a favorite that's become a bigger favorite, and
10:56
it's a low total game, around 8 or 7 1/2.
10:59
So once again, fair amount of expected run scored more, more
11:01
likely to come from that quote UN quote better team.
11:04
And the G men want to bank on a couple things.
11:06
One, they have the better offense.
11:08
They're only hitting 2O2, doesn't sound great, but they've
11:10
scored thirty runs. On the flip side, Seattle's
11:13
hitting $1.72, they've only scored eighteen runs.
11:16
And also the Giants have the better overall team pitching
11:19
staff. ERA of 2.72 versus 4 point.
11:23
OO so similar that Yankees game. We have a interleague favorite,
11:27
big steam favorite low total correlative betting, bunch of
11:30
system matches, better offense, better pitching staff.
11:34
I'm going with the G men, not the New York Giants.
11:37
The San Francisco Giants with Verlander on the bump.
11:40
I got the G men at -148 last night of the night.
11:45
Another ain't broke, don't fix it play going right back to the
11:48
well with the beer makers. 8:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch
11:52
Cincinnati Reds at the Milwaukee Brewers now setting the stage
11:56
here. Brewers are three and four.
11:58
They did take last night's series opener, luckily 1.
12:01
Nothing gave us a win there. Took care of business as a -,
12:04
120 home favorite pitching match up for today.
12:06
The Reds two and five. They're going to go with the
12:08
ready Nick Martinez. He's O and one with a 6 ERA to
12:12
start the year. Brewers are going to go with the
12:14
lefty Tyler Alexander. He's O&O 5.4 O ERA to start the
12:18
year. So what are we seeing across the
12:20
market? Well, this game open at roughly
12:23
a pick em very, very, you know, short Milwaukee favorite price
12:26
here around -110 and we've seen Milwaukee now get steamed up all
12:30
the way to -125 -, 130. So to me, that was a dead
12:34
giveaway. You open at a very short number
12:37
and the pros who move numbers and again, the public's at work
12:40
right now. They got down on Milwaukee
12:42
saying, hey, we got the Brewers, you know, maybe -120 -, 130 to
12:45
begin with. So when they were as low as -110
12:48
they hammered Milwaukee 'cause that line move and big steam in
12:51
favor of the Brew Crew. Now it's circa good bet split on
12:54
Milwaukee, 75% money line bets, 83% money line dollars.
12:59
So it tells me we got heavy one way betting out in the desert in
13:02
favor of the Brew Crew. System matches here.
13:05
This is not an inner league game.
13:07
It is a divisional game. But we got home favorites 43 and
13:10
22 this year, 66 percent, 10% ROI.
13:13
And another good system match we have is the home favorite off a
13:18
win, playing an opponent off a loss 22 and 8 to start the year,
13:21
73 percent, 19% ROI. Lastly, you know, hopefully the
13:26
Brewers bats, you know can get it done.
13:29
They're hitting 218 on the year. Doesn't sound great, but the
13:31
Reds are only hitting $1.97. I did notice Cincinnati going up
13:35
against a lefty today, Tyler Alexander.
13:38
They're only hitting 100. They're hitting 100 against
13:41
lefties this year. That's the third worst and Major
13:43
League Baseball. So since he you know, they've
13:46
lost three straight one up in games.
13:48
I saw there was a tweet about that was the first time in MLB
13:50
history or maybe one of the only times.
13:53
But I'm hoping even though I'm a big Terry Francona fan as a Red
13:56
Sox fan, but I'm hoping the Brew Crew can can continue to get a
14:00
win for us here tonight. So I'm on Milwaukee short price
14:04
again, pick a -, 110 up to -130 good bet split lot of system
14:09
matches. Let's go beer makers.
14:11
I got Milwaukee at -124 So Yankees, Giants, Brewers, can we
14:16
get 2 out of three and post a winning day?
14:18
That is the goal now because we have the final four tomorrow.
14:24
Let's talk some betting here for college hoops.
14:27
Now, you might have heard me mention it yesterday.
14:30
And by the way, did anyone jump on Christian Campbell plus 400
14:35
rookie of the year? I think he's down to plus 175.
14:37
So that's that's a good thing. But anyway, let's talk Final
14:41
four now I have one official bet that I placed yesterday.
14:44
I mentioned on the pod it's in pocket for me.
14:47
It's Houston plus 5 1/2. Now reasons why I like Houston.
14:51
If you missed yesterday's pod or want a refresher #1 this is not
14:55
a sharp play, but I would call it a value play because it is a
14:58
really contrarian play and a heavily bet prime time, you
15:01
know, basically a championship game, which is again, 849
15:05
extremely heavily bet tomorrow night.
15:07
And currently, Houston is the very unpopular side.
15:10
They're only getting 31% of bets at DraftKings.
15:13
At Circa in Vegas, they're getting 39% of spread bets, but
15:17
nearly half the money. Now the line did go to Duke.
15:19
They open -4 1/2. They got up to -5 1/2.
15:22
There's still some 5 and a halfs out there, but you have some
15:25
books that are back down to five.
15:27
So partially my reason to put this in yesterday was I wanted
15:31
to make sure I got the hook, the plus 5, 1/2.
15:33
Because again, if we see this thing get to five painted across
15:36
the board, let's say Houston loses by 5, that's a push versus
15:41
proactively getting the hook and you cash with the hook with a +
15:44
5 1/2. So part of it is getting the
15:46
best price. Again, I mentioned it's not a
15:48
sharp bet because the line moved toward Duke.
15:50
To me, it's more of a value inflated bet.
15:52
The other thing I really like is the model predictions here.
15:55
Ken Palm actually has Houston only losing by two points, 68 to
16:00
66. So if we're getting a 5 1/2, Ken
16:03
Palm's got a 2 point game. Good actionable value, rhythm.
16:07
I have 3 rhythm models on this game, plus 4 + 4.3 and plus 3.7.
16:13
All within that 5 1/2. So good, you know, actual value.
16:17
And I don't know if I mentioned this on the pod yesterday, but
16:20
there's a really good article from Juice Reel.
16:22
I highly recommend signing up for the free Juice Reel
16:24
newsletter. If you go to my Twitter page at
16:27
Josh under score Insights, I tweeted out last night, but
16:29
there's a good article on like Homecourt Advantage.
16:32
And if you didn't know this Houston Duke game, both games
16:35
are going to be played at the Alamodome and San Antonio, TX.
16:39
So Houston, TX, Alamodome, San Antonio, TX.
16:44
Duke obviously is a North Carolina team.
16:46
Everyone loves Duke, but is this a quasi sneaky homecourt
16:49
advantage for Houston? Are they going to get a very
16:51
friendly crowd? You know, Houston is a really
16:54
good, you know, junkyard dog team, really tough team.
16:57
Kelvin Sampson, they're in a dog situation on, you know, can can
17:01
Sampson really play up that argument of, hey, no one
17:03
believes in us? Is that a motivating factor?
17:05
And you got the crowd and you got a valuable contrarian play
17:09
with predictions from Ken Palm and rhythm.
17:10
That should be A2 or A4 point game.
17:13
Add that all up. I'm going plus 4 1/2 here with
17:17
with or sorry, plus 5 1/2 with Houston.
17:19
That's already in pocket. And it is posted to the Juice
17:22
Reel app. The other game I mentioned
17:25
yesterday Kind of as a lean for me as I'm still holding out for
17:28
Auburn plus 3. Looks like a pretty sharp line
17:31
freeze. Everyone's playing Florida, but
17:33
Florida open -2 1/2 and they really haven't moved off 2 1/2.
17:36
Auburn is only getting right now 30% of bets but 64% of dollars
17:41
at Circa. Only 35% of bets at DraftKings.
17:44
Ken Palms got him losing by 1 and Rhythm has a two 2.2 and a
17:48
1.8. So I'm going to still hold out
17:51
see if I can get a three. You can definitely check out the
17:53
sharp report tomorrow that I'll rate for for visa.com to get an
17:57
updated betting breakdown. I will mention to I am intrigued
18:01
by Florida Auburn the under here.
18:04
It looked pretty sharp to me. It opened at as high as 161.
18:09
It's down to 160 or 159 1/2. And if you look at kind of the
18:15
direction of this game, you know, at some shops you have
18:18
heavy betting over, but the total has fallen.
18:20
It's also played at the Alamodome, basically a, you
18:24
know, a football stadium, you know, does that mean the sight
18:26
lines are going to screw up some of the shots?
18:28
And maybe we get kind of that neutral court unfamiliar sight
18:31
line under that could be worth a look as well.
18:33
I didn't I I missed the 160 1/2. I don't think that's available
18:37
anymore. And that was the last kind of
18:39
number where I saw a sharp move. So I am intrigued by that under
18:42
I'm intrigued by Auburn. I'm waiting for a three.
18:44
As of right now, my only play is Houston plus 5 1/2.
18:49
So that about does it. Wrapping up the pod here on a
18:52
big Friday as we steam into Final four weekend.
18:55
But this is the part of the pod where we wrap it up.
18:57
And I start first by saying thank you.
18:59
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of out of
19:01
your busy lives. I know you guys got a lot going
19:03
on, but I, I see the stats, I pull the pull back the curtain,
19:06
I see the, the downloads, the listens, the views, and we
19:10
continue to grow and you guys continue to tune in.
19:12
And for that I am really, really grateful.
19:14
I appreciate you guys. Aside from that, I'm going to
19:17
butter you up now. I'm going to ask something of
19:18
you, could you please if you enjoy this podcast, it'll only
19:22
take you a second. If you're in Spotify or iTunes,
19:24
go to rate and review. Give it a five star review.
19:27
That would really mean a lot to me.
19:28
Help us to continue to grow the pod.
19:31
If there's an option to leave a nice comment, hey, I'll take
19:33
that as well. If there is a follow button you
19:36
want to click. That way you get alerted as soon
19:38
as the pod drops each day you'll get a pop up on your on your
19:41
smartphone. You can definitely click that if
19:44
you want to recommend the pod word of mouth to a friend or
19:47
colleague or family member, get them turned onto it too.
19:50
That would be great as well. Next, if you enjoy this style of
19:55
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, it's a
19:58
lifestyle. It's something you got to stick
20:00
with. You got to continue to grind it
20:02
each day, but there's a method to the madness reading the
20:05
market like Wall Street traders read the stock market.
20:07
Maybe that's a sensitive subject right now as as the tariffs are
20:11
wreaking havoc on the stock market.
20:14
But anyway. If you enjoy the style of
20:16
betting breakdown, you want to learn more about data-driven
20:18
betting, you want to let me know you appreciate the pod or you
20:21
have someone in your life who maybe needs a little bit of
20:23
insight into betting on sports. Maybe they're brand new to
20:25
betting or maybe they bet a lot, but they just bet with their gut
20:28
instinct. They have no no blueprint.
20:30
You know, you should do. You should go to Amazon.com and
20:33
type in the everything guide to sports betting.
20:36
My baby. The first book I ever wrote.
20:38
It really kind of, you know, hammers home the the betting,
20:42
you know, the data-driven betting approach.
20:44
I should say, how to read the market, how to locate sharp
20:47
action, how to go contrary and how to set up a bankroll
20:49
management plan, how to place a bet in person or online.
20:52
It's all right there in the everything guide to sports
20:54
betting. So it's great for brand new
20:56
betters. It's also good for intermediate
20:58
betters. I got a lot of kind of high
20:59
level systems in there as well. Next actually tweeted about
21:04
today I had a conference call with my friends at Triumph books
21:07
about my new book. It's called the NFL sharp
21:10
betting playbook and I actually had a buddy on Twitter tweet
21:14
tweet me and say I really liked your first book.
21:16
You have any any new books coming out and I said yes I do
21:19
August 12th it comes out the NFL sharp betting playbook.
21:21
If you guys wanted to go to Amazon.com and type in the NFL
21:26
sharp betting playbook and pre-order a copy you would
21:29
really really make my day. I appreciate your support.
21:33
Those of you have already pre-ordered a copy.
21:35
I could kiss you. Thank you so much means a lot
21:38
and we also today discussed on my call with Triumph books the
21:42
book tour. So you may see me in your neck
21:44
of the woods at some point. But anyway, if you want to pick
21:47
up a copy of the everything guide to sports betting or the
21:50
NFL sharp betting playbook, you'll mean a ton to me.
21:52
Bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
21:54
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale or a couple couple
21:57
mozzarella sticks and we'll sweat some games together next.
22:01
If you haven't done it yet, what are you waiting for?
22:02
Go download the two best sports betting apps in the App Store
22:06
first, rhythm download rhythm rhythm does a great job of
22:10
providing us AI backed models and predictions for game bets
22:13
and player props. We got baseball live in the app
22:16
right now and NBA college basketball.
22:18
Of course, WNBA isn't far off. They have that in the app.
22:22
So you got to download rhythm and you also got to download
22:24
juice reel. Juice reel is another fantastic
22:27
data-driven sports betting app. Really kind of a little bit of
22:29
everything. If you enjoy this pod, and
22:33
again, I make the joke, I'm, I'm like a, a podcaster, you know,
22:36
server bartender. If I'm providing you a good free
22:39
service, I would love for you guys to go sign up and get the
22:42
best bet picks on juice Reel where you won't get them
22:44
anywhere else. All the official plays, I put
22:46
them out throughout the day. So hopefully you get some good
22:48
numbers early, but that costs $4.99 a week, 5 bucks.
22:53
So hopefully this is a this free pod is worth 5 bucks to you.
22:56
And if you want to go sign up, you can go to the the all
23:00
systems go page on the juice reel social tab.
23:03
Or you can just go to my Twitter page at Josh under score
23:05
insights always tweeted out each day, usually early to late
23:09
afternoon, but not just the all systems go best bets.
23:12
You're going to get the robo Jackson best bet plays the AI
23:15
driven plays that come out a pair each day at noon.
23:18
You're also going to get the shop for the best line futures.
23:21
You're going to get the arbitrage indicators, shark mush
23:24
all all of those will be located in the juice reel app.
23:27
So go download juice reel, go download rhythm.
23:30
Give them a five star review in the App Store.
23:32
Lastly, if you're betting on sports, you need a live odds
23:36
page. A good Craftsman never blames
23:38
his tools, as the old, old saying says, but you got to have
23:41
a live odds page. It is a critical, critical part
23:44
of betting on sports because if you're betting on sports, you
23:46
have to know #1 the easiest question is what are all the
23:50
games being played today? The live odds page will show you
23:53
every game from every sport and the upcoming games.
23:56
Then it's going to show you the betting market.
23:58
This is the live odds page is how you track the betting
24:00
market. You'll have an open column give
24:02
you the opening number for every game that tells you the starting
24:05
point, and then you'll look to the right, see all the different
24:06
books with the current numbers, so you can quickly see which
24:09
direction the line moved. You can pull up the line
24:11
history, get all the nuances and moves in between.
24:14
And of course, you'll shop for the best line, getting the the
24:17
price at the best book. So again, if you're trying to
24:20
play Houston, there's a lot of fives out there.
24:22
Odds Logic is the live odds page that'll show you the book with a
24:25
5 1/2. So I'd love for you guys if you
24:28
need a live odds page or you have one, but it's kind of
24:30
expensive or maybe you have one, but it's and it's free, but it's
24:33
delayed and it doesn't give you a lot of books.
24:36
That's another thing people say, Oh, I got a free one.
24:37
Well, it's like, you know, it's an hour delayed.
24:40
It only gives you three books. And some of the data is from
24:43
like offshores that you can't even trust.
24:45
You know, you should do, you should give Odds Logic a shot.
24:48
Go to this this address oddslogic.com/josh 123.
24:54
Make sure it's oddslogic.com/josh 123.
24:57
That way you'll get a 7 day free trial.
24:59
See if you like it and if you want to let it renew.
25:01
I think you're going to enjoy it.
25:03
You'll then get 50% off your first month.
25:05
So give it a shot. oddslogic.com/josh 123.
25:10
So that about does it for today's pod 250.
25:13
Can you believe we're 1/4 of away to 1000 podcasts?
25:17
I guess you could put it one way, but anytime we get to big
25:19
round numbers on the pod, I kind of get excited because it just
25:22
tells you that we're grinding, baby.
25:25
But anyway, I'll leave with a couple things as we always do.
25:27
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
25:30
River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
25:33
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or
25:36
Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in Massachusetts, or
25:40
the New Nash Casino in my neck of the woods in Nashua, NH.
25:44
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
25:46
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest
25:49
juice possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
25:52
contain plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
25:55
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
25:58
you're going to walk up to me, you're going to show me a
26:00
beautiful Yankees ticket. The Yankees and the Brewers as
26:04
well. We made some good beer last
26:05
night. Just don't show me the Twins.
26:06
And they, they got us excited only to let us down.
26:09
But still 2 and 1 + 0.68 units. We'll take it put in our pocket
26:14
reinvested into today. So as always guys hope you have
26:18
a great Friday and an even better weekend.
26:20
I'll leave you with this two and one one and 2-3 and OO and
26:23
three. We always continue to grind
26:25
regardless of the previous day's results.
26:28
Never too high, never too low. When you're hot and feeling
26:30
good, you're never as good as you think.
26:32
When you're low and struggling, you're never as bad as you
26:34
think. You're always somewhere in the
26:35
middle. But I can tell you this, even
26:37
though sports betting is difficult, got to overcome the
26:39
juice, got to overcome bad beats, the razor sharp lines,
26:43
bullpens blowing it or refs making a call to screw us again,
26:47
we got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
26:48
That's what, how and why we're going to be successful finding
26:51
games that fit our model with our head and with our with our
26:54
head and not our heart against the public, with the house, with
26:57
the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
27:00
If we can do that, and I'm confident that we can, then in
27:03
the end we're going to be successful sports betters.
27:06
So have a great Friday, have an even better weekend, guys.
27:09
You can check out the sharp reports for visa.com over the
27:11
weekend and then I'll see you guys back on Monday.
27:14
That'll be episode 251 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
27:18
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
27:22
great weekend.