Latest / Inside Politics / Littleproud fired the gun, but Ley set up the circumstances: The spectacular Coalition break-up

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Littleproud fired the gun, but Ley set up the circumstances: The spectacular Coalition break-up · Inside Politics

0:03
S1: Hey everyone, it's Paul SoCal here and we're back with
0:06
S1: a special episode of Inside Politics because a few things
0:09
S1: have happened in Canberra this week, namely the breakup of
0:12
S1: the federal coalition.
0:13
S2: Now, on that breaking news out of Canberra, nationals leader
0:15
S2: David Littleproud has confirmed the coalition will split.
0:19
S3: The coalition is over the Liberal Party and the nationals,
0:22
S3: who of course form that coalition to be in opposition,
0:26
S3: splitting for the second time in less than a year.
0:29
S1: The 100 year old political alliance, which has turned the
0:31
S1: coalition into a natural party of government in Australia. Earlier
0:35
S1: on Thursday, nationals leader David Littleproud announced a split with
0:39
S1: the Liberal Party after a huge fracas over Labor's hate
0:43
S1: speech laws, where three rebel national senators voted against what
0:48
S1: liberals believe to be a party position. Agreed a few
0:51
S1: days earlier in the Shadow cabinet.
0:52
S4: When we have three of of our senators who had
0:56
S4: the courage of their conviction and did what our party
0:58
S4: room decided was the right thing to do for them
1:02
S4: to to lose their jobs. We can't accept that. And
1:06
S4: we made it very clear that there would be a consequence.
1:10
S1: Joining me today is our federal political correspondent, Natasha Chrysanthos.
1:14
S5: Hi, Paul.
1:20
S1: So what does this mean for the coalition? Is the
1:22
S1: split formal and what have we learnt on Thursday from
1:26
S1: David Littleproud and Sussan Ley?
1:28
S5: So according to nationals leader David Littleproud, who spoke early
1:31
S5: on Thursday morning, it's done.
1:34
S4: No it's done. I spoke to Sussan Ley about half
1:36
S4: an hour ago and made her fully aware. I gave
1:38
S4: her an opportunity yesterday after we had a party room
1:40
S4: meeting when she ignored the letter.
1:42
S5: This is not a threat. They're not coming back. The coalition,
1:47
S5: for now at least. But indefinitely is over. Now, there
1:52
S5: was a lot of toing and froing in the last
1:54
S5: 24 hours as to whether that would be the case.
1:57
S5: As you mentioned, it all started when three nationals Nos
2:01
S5: frontbenchers voted against what was assumed to be the joint
2:04
S5: party position on Labor's hate laws. This breached a concept
2:08
S5: of shadow cabinet solidarity, which insists that everyone in a
2:13
S5: in the frontbench, all of the leadership votes with the
2:16
S5: party's position. Any breaches of this are taken very seriously
2:20
S5: and deemed to be untenable. And so when they cross
2:22
S5: the floor late on Tuesday night, it spurred quick speculation
2:26
S5: that there would be more afoot. And indeed there was.
2:30
S5: We had the three senators, Bridget McKenzie, Ross Cadell and
2:34
S5: Susan McDonald offer their resignation to Sussan Ley on the
2:38
S5: principle that they had breached shadow cabinet solidarity and understood
2:42
S5: that they should step aside. But it was it was
2:48
S5: a bit of a bluff, shall we say. These three
2:51
S5: resignation letters came with an additional letter from David Littleproud
2:56
S5: to Sussan Ley, saying if you accept these offers of resignation,
3:00
S5: we will all resign. So it was an offer of resignation,
3:03
S5: kind of underneath what was a giant threat. Susan Lee
3:07
S5: was prepared to go for it. She accepted their resignations,
3:10
S5: potentially assuming that the nationals wouldn't wouldn't follow with their threat,
3:15
S5: because that would be a huge and to some crazy
3:19
S5: thing to do. But by Wednesday night, after a 6 p.m.
3:22
S5: meeting of the nationals, the remaining MPs in the coalition frontbench,
3:28
S5: creating a total of 11 people had all resigned, leaving
3:31
S5: no nationals in the coalition frontbench. Sussan Ley urged them
3:36
S5: to reconsider, but they very quickly said well, we've just
3:39
S5: done exactly what we've told you we were going to do.
3:42
S5: This is on you. And so David Littleproud comes up
3:45
S5: on Thursday morning and says it's all over.
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S1: I think just worth putting this against a broader context
3:53
S1: to remember how we got here. We're back in Parliament
3:56
S1: two weeks earlier than was planned for an emergency, sitting
3:59
S1: off the back of the Bondi massacre. There'd been weeks
4:03
S1: of fervent calls from the opposition and many others in
4:06
S1: the community of goodwill saying we need to get back
4:09
S1: to Parliament, pass emergency laws to show that we've learnt
4:12
S1: lessons from Bondi and that will create a new security,
4:16
S1: social cohesion infrastructure to ensure that that can never occur again.
4:20
S1: There was a lot of pressure on the Prime Minister
4:22
S1: coming into this week after a really difficult summer facing
4:25
S1: calls for a royal commission, which he rebuffed for a
4:26
S1: long time and then backtracked on, it was pressure coming
4:29
S1: in to this week on him to ensure that he
4:32
S1: got some legislation passed. The Greens and the coalition were
4:35
S1: against key elements of the legislation, and there was lots
4:38
S1: of discussion about the Prime Minister's authority, whether he had
4:41
S1: he had been the one coming into this week with
4:43
S1: new internal pressure and a sense that he needed to
4:47
S1: match the moment, the coalition had a little bit of
4:49
S1: a pep in its step. You could say. And so
4:52
S1: the stunning speed of that narrative being the prevailing narrative
4:57
S1: as late as maybe Saturday or Sunday earlier this week
5:00
S1: to then only three days later, the coalition split in
5:03
S1: is kind of extraordinary. And I wonder, Natasha, what's the
5:07
S1: key argument that David Littleproud has put forward as to
5:10
S1: why this was not, in fact, the nationals fault, but
5:13
S1: was Susan Lee's fault?
5:14
S5: Yeah, the disintegration has indeed been remarkable. Littleproud's so the
5:20
S5: reason that the nationals got to the point they did
5:23
S5: was that there was to ING and fro ING in
5:26
S5: the nationals party room about whether there had been kind
5:30
S5: of adequate scrutiny of these laws, whether they'd been too rushed,
5:33
S5: whether they had enough time to go through them and
5:35
S5: make sure that they were robust enough that the nationals
5:37
S5: could tell their people or their constituents in good faith.
5:40
S5: We've looked at these and we're confident that they're in
5:42
S5: the interests of Australians. Nothing wrong with that argument. I
5:45
S5: think that's what most people expect of their elected representatives.
5:50
S5: So their justification for for withholding their support for the laws, rather,
5:55
S5: was that labor had done it too quickly.
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S4: This was a rush process. We are talking about national
6:01
S4: security matters with complex legislation, complex legislation that should be
6:07
S4: scrutinized and understood before we're forced to vote on it.
6:11
S4: That was the disappointing fact of it.
6:13
S5: And that labor had made a mockery of the Westminster
6:16
S5: system by doing so. And it was all about the
6:19
S5: kind of rushed and hurried process. I think the big
6:23
S5: problem there, which Lee found herself with, is that it
6:28
S5: was her calling for Parliament to come back and pass laws,
6:31
S5: as you just mentioned. Um, once she had done that
6:34
S5: and said, what? What Australia needs to come together after
6:37
S5: this moment is new laws and new laws. Fast. She
6:41
S5: couldn't come back. When? When Albanese had called her to.
6:44
S5: And then. And Lee refused to be constructive, that would
6:47
S5: have looked very bad for her. So she, in pursuing
6:50
S5: this line in the aftermath of the Bondi massacre, locked
6:53
S5: herself into this position and was not able to get
6:56
S5: out of it. And she told the coalition and she
6:59
S5: told the Nats and she told the liberals at this
7:01
S5: point it is incumbent on the opposition to be constructive
7:04
S5: and also for people to see, oh, they're taking anti-Semitism
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S5: seriously and they want to do something about it.
7:08
S1: The Jewish community wanted this bill to pass in some way,
7:10
S1: shape or form.
7:11
S5: So given all of that, you know, and you can
7:13
S5: see how Susan Lee's decision making over the last month
7:16
S5: has kind of taken us to this position. What do
7:18
S5: you think this means for David Littleproud, and what does
7:20
S5: it mean for Susan Lee?
7:21
S1: Well, just on David Littleproud, first, a lesser known character
7:25
S1: in the general public, no doubt, and naturally being the
7:28
S1: National party leader, something that city based, someone who city
7:31
S1: based voters wouldn't know much about. He's flown under the
7:34
S1: radar a little bit this term for his tenuous grip
7:37
S1: on his party, the junior coalition party. There's been a
7:40
S1: lot of talk about Sussan Ley and when her reign
7:42
S1: will come to an end, and that could be hastened
7:44
S1: by this crisis. But David Littleproud is in a precarious
7:47
S1: position himself. He was dragged to vote no against this bill,
7:51
S1: or to allow his senators to vote no against this
7:53
S1: bill by nationals Senator Matt Canavan, who's an agitator in
7:59
S1: the National Party, has a significant right wing libertarian constituency
8:04
S1: in some ways has more kind of authenticity as a
8:09
S1: symbol of regional grievance and regional kind of hostility towards, uh,
8:17
S1: city based policies than his leader, David Littleproud, who often
8:21
S1: feels compelled to go with Matt Canavan and execute his
8:25
S1: policy agenda. And this was another case where Canavan kind
8:29
S1: of led the charge against this labor bill.
8:31
S6: The biggest attack on free speech since Robert Menzies tried
8:35
S6: to ban the Communist Party in the 1950s. This is
8:37
S6: not the way to deal with the tragic events of
8:40
S6: Bondi we saw last month. Effectively, these laws aren't about
8:45
S6: banning hatred, they're about banning criticism of government policies.
8:49
S1: And Littleproud, after initially suggesting to the Liberal Party that
8:52
S1: the nationals could support the bill, ends up in Canavan's position.
8:57
S1: There are questions in the National Party now about how
8:59
S1: long Littleproud's leadership can last if his business model is
9:02
S1: effectively to follow the wishes of his right flank and
9:07
S1: his decision to blow up the National Party and resign
9:10
S1: himself along with other frontbenchers, along with the three who
9:13
S1: were forced to resign effectively because they broke convention, is
9:17
S1: a hugely contentious decision by a National Party leader. He's
9:20
S1: blown up a political alliance that has been extremely fruitful.
9:25
S1: That's meant that the coalition has been in power for
9:27
S1: the majority of time since World War two. And this split,
9:30
S1: unlike the more brief split after the May election last year,
9:34
S1: is likely to be much longer. It might lead to
9:38
S1: National and Liberal Party candidates contesting the same seats. It
9:42
S1: may lead to nationals senators losing their Senate positions because
9:46
S1: they have those spots, because they're number two on a
9:49
S1: coalition ticket. The national primary vote is only around for
9:53
S1: 5 or 6% at any given time across the country,
9:56
S1: whereas the Liberal Party vote is in the 20s. So
9:59
S1: the National Party in many ways needs the liberals more
10:01
S1: than the other way around, and so his future is uncertain.
10:05
S1: Now just shift into Lee. There are two schools of
10:08
S1: thought about the events of the past few days. One
10:11
S1: is that she has handled this poorly, and even though
10:15
S1: Littleproud fired the gun, she set up the circumstances. As
10:19
S1: you just mentioned Natasha and she wears the blame and
10:22
S1: she even though again, there is absolute fury towards Littleproud
10:27
S1: across both factions of the Liberal Party, that she eventually
10:31
S1: wears the blame because she's the opposition leader and that
10:33
S1: she's fatally wounded. But there's a strong sentiment in the
10:37
S1: Liberal Party as well to not reward David Littleproud, who
10:40
S1: effectively is dead. Liberals to topple Sussan Ley today by
10:43
S1: saying that the coalition couldn't exist will never exist until
10:47
S1: she's removed as leader. That's the effect of what he's saying.
10:50
S1: So was described to me today that Liberal Party MPs
10:53
S1: have been on the phone all morning. There's no sense
10:56
S1: of organisation about when a leadership challenge might occur. There
10:59
S1: is pretty widespread acknowledgement that even though she may not
11:02
S1: be entirely to blame for this crisis, that Sussan Ley
11:05
S1: will eventually lose her position over it. But no one
11:09
S1: is doing the numbers formally. There is no appetite to
11:12
S1: bring the party room back before Parliament resumes in early February.
11:16
S1: So there might be a couple of weeks of speculation
11:20
S1: about how a Liberal only opposition might look until we
11:23
S1: actually have this come to a head when MPs return
11:26
S1: in early February. I think the best quote I heard
11:28
S1: today from a from a Liberal MP about the nature
11:31
S1: of the calls going on, is that there's a lot
11:34
S1: of blind men in a room searching around for where
11:36
S1: the walls are. People don't really know where to go next.
11:39
S1: It's dire. There is a sense of depression across the party.
11:42
S1: But the next few weeks are really unclear.
11:45
S5: I think what this means more broadly is when we
11:48
S5: do come back to Parliament in a couple of weeks time,
11:51
S5: we're going to have labor with a 94 seat majority
11:55
S5: in the House, and the opposition is now just the
11:57
S5: Liberal Party. The National Party has become a cross-bench party.
12:00
S5: In the Senate, there are four nationals. Senators. There are
12:03
S5: four one nation senators like their representation in the Senate
12:07
S5: is equal to one nation now. And in the House
12:09
S5: it's 28 liberals.
12:11
S1: Something like that.
12:12
S5: Something like that. That is it's not a strong opposition.
12:18
S5: And so, you know, very ironically, where it seemed like
12:22
S5: the last month might put the first real dent in
12:25
S5: Albanese's stronghold over the parliament since May. Now he's got
12:30
S5: a he's dealing with an opposition minus a dozen people
12:34
S5: or more. Yeah. I think the dynamics of the Parliament
12:37
S5: will just continue to change, and we're yet to see
12:39
S5: where they'll land, especially with the kind of spectra of
12:42
S5: one nation hovering over this. And, you know, the possibility
12:45
S5: that there's more there's more movement or more defections is,
12:48
S5: as perhaps some Nats choose to back the winning horse, which,
12:52
S5: according to some polling is One Nation.
12:54
S1: Yeah, there's a lot of ups and downs in politics,
12:57
S1: but some moments are kind of generational and historic. And
13:02
S1: this is arguably the lowest point in the Liberal Party's
13:05
S1: history since its founding in the mid 40s, and probably
13:07
S1: one of the biggest crises on, uh, on the right
13:10
S1: flank of politics in since Federation. So if the last
13:14
S1: three days is anything to go by, the next two
13:16
S1: weeks will be a wild ride until we're back here
13:17
S1: in Canberra for another sitting week. Thank you for joining us, Natasha.
13:21
S5: Thank you.
13:30
S1: You can read this story and all our political news
13:32
S1: on our websites, theage.com.au or the Smh.com.au. Today's episode was
13:39
S1: produced by Kai Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our
13:42
S1: executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts were overseen
13:45
S1: by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. And if you're wondering
13:48
S1: where our esteemed host, Jacqueline Maley is, she'll be back
13:51
S1: next week. Before we go, follow Inside Politics and leave
13:54
S1: a review for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm Paul
13:57
S1: Sakala and thank you for listening.