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Episode 23 - 4/15/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 23 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
0:33
Everyone? Happy Monday.
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A new week begins and we got a lot to get to on today's pod
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because I have a six pack of sweats for you to the guys,
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including five Major League Baseball picks, couple of which
0:44
are kind of interesting. Some games here with some really
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sharp reverse line moves. Couple games where hey, the
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fishy line is the one we're going to take as well as one in
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particular where we're going up against a rookie pitcher making
0:55
his MLB debut and I'm hoping this rookie pitcher gets lit up
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here today. So we're going to talk a lot of
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baseball as well as some NHLNHL season is coming to an end here
1:04
quickly. Only a couple games left for for
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each team but there's a one one game tonight that has a pretty
1:10
good rest for style tired angle in favor of a team who kind of
1:13
has to continue to win in order to fend off some teams behind
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them in the standings versus A-Team who is eliminated and has
1:20
nothing to play for. So we're going to share about
1:22
share it all with you today on Episode 23 of the All Systems Go
1:25
Pod. Now today is a very special day
1:28
because it is marathon Monday. And if you are in New England,
1:32
if you're Massachusetts, Boston like me, today is a very special
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day that has a very important meaning.
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If you're outside of New England, it probably doesn't
1:40
mean much to you. But Marathon Monday, today,
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obviously it's the day that the Boston Marathon is is run.
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I saw today no Chara Big Z actually he's done a few years
1:50
here since he retired. He's actually 8 minutes faster
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than last year. But anyway, I'm not going to get
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into the runners. It's not something you can
1:56
really bet on, but it's just something that kind of the the
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culture of Boston. Everyone gets behind and it's a
2:02
beautiful day today. Red Sox, of course, lost six to
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nothing, so Sox couldn't come through even though they had a
2:07
huge steam move. But it means a lot for New
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England and for people in Boston.
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Obviously after the marathon bombings in 2013, it's taken on
2:15
a whole another meeting. I've had some friends run the
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marathon. It's just a kind of an exciting,
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great day. Again, you got an early Sox
2:22
game. Everyone's excited in the city.
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You got a lot of marathon people from all over the country, all
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over the world, really coming to Boston.
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So I love the buzz, the energy of Marathon Monday.
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And I got to tell you guys, before I got into sports betting
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as a career, I first moved to Boston.
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I graduated from the University of Vermont.
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Go, cats go in 2009. This is basically the height of
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the recession. Not many jobs are available, but
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me and my boys moved to Boston. We got a two-bedroom apartment.
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I remember the rent was 600 bucks a month, so rent's too
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damn high. Obviously I don't even even get
2:55
that anymore. But it was the third store, the
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third floor of a of a three family basically house in in
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Brighton. So my first job when I moved to
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Boston is obviously I try to do something within sports, you
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know, applied to the Boston Globe, the Herald, all the
3:13
different sports teams trying to find anything.
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I couldn't find anything, but you know what I did find?
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I found a restaurant that was opening up called Jerry Remy's
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Sports Bar and Grill. So RIP to Jerry Remy, who was a
3:24
great love, beloved Boston announcer forever for the Red
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Sox. Passed away a couple years ago.
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But I was what was I, 21 years old, had just moved to Boston
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and I was a server as well as AI did it all.
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Server, bar, back, bartender, busboy.
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I did it all, but we opened Jerry Remy's and it was a really
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fun time in my life. But I always remember Marathon
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Mondays. It always makes me think of
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working at Remy's because I worked there for two years
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before I left and got my first job in sports betting When I
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worked for Sports Insights got my first big break in the
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industry. But those two years, Red Sox
4:00
games, it gets crazy. It's crowded.
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But I always look forward to those two years on Marathon
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Monday because you would work your ass off.
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You'd get there. I think we had to get there like
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6 AM, 5:00 AM because again, the marathon starts early.
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People start to pregame. Red Sox game is at 11.
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But the two years I worked there, marathon Monday, I made
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like 600 bucks each day from tips because it was just the
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craziest day of the year. So I always think of Remy's.
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And it was funny because, you know, the Red Sox, I met a bunch
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of the Red Sox players that all parked their cars underneath
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Remy's. Remy's is right kind of to the
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right side of like first base right field next to Fenway Park.
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So I'm now a 36 year old, but I always look fondly and I wanted
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to share that with you because it's kind of funny how different
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days make you think of things. And Marathon Monday, I always
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think about working at Remy's making a ton of money on
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Marathon Monday. But really the buzz and the
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excitement of Marathon Monday, you really can't beat it.
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And if you know what I mean, You know what I mean.
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If you're in, I don't know, Texas or California, you're
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like, who cares? Why does it matter?
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But just one day bucket list come to Boston for Marathon
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Monday. It's it's kind of an incredible
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time and it's a nice day as well.
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So there you have a guys. Anyway, let's move on to our six
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game slate here for today. I just want to say thank God
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last week is over guys. That was a brutal week.
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I'm looking over the stats here, 13 and 16 -, 6.8 units last
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week, Monday to Friday, just could not get any traction.
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But you're going to have those weeks, you're going to have
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those days, those weeks where the sharp moves don't come
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through, you're tearing your, you know, your eyes out.
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It just it feels like you're never going to win again.
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But I'm hoping that we're seeing the turn of a corner because
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yesterday had a three and O sharp report, which I'm excited
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about. Tigers, Rays and A's all came
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through. So that's baseball.
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It's streaky. You're going to get hot streaks,
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cold streaks. We're going to see if we can
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start off this week better off than we started last week.
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So let's get right to it Now Major League Baseball, as I
5:50
mentioned, big, big slate today. There are 15 games and there are
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a bunch that caught my eye. So I'm excited to hopefully make
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some money with you guys in the arena tonight.
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So first on the board, kind of a fishy 1.
6:00
Doesn't make much sense. Give me the fishy side.
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Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers. Now the Rangers come in eight
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and eight. They did just drop two or three
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though against the Astros. Lost eight to five yesterday as
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a -, 1 O five dog. You look at the Tigers though,
6:15
had a big comeback win yesterday if you played them.
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But they're nine and six split A4 game series against the Twins
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came back in in one, four to three yesterday.
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They were -125 on the money line before tonight's opening series
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series opener. I should say Rangers are going
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with Michael Lorenzen. Remember, he threw a no hitter
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with Philly last year. He's making his season debut,
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his first start of the year. Last year he was 9 to 94.18 ERA
6:40
for both the Tigers and the Phillies Tigers.
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Meanwhile, going with Rady Reese Olson, he's O and one 5.4 OERA.
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So what are we seeing across the market here?
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A massive dog to fave line move in favor of Detroit.
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I'm going Tigers here guys. I got to trust the market and go
6:55
with the sharp line move because we opened the Rangers as a
6:59
favorite. Rangers were around a -, 120 Rd.
7:01
favorite, and now we flipped all the way to basically Detroit
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-115 -, 120. So a huge dog to fave line move.
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And this is especially notable because the public's all over
7:11
Texas. They don't believe in Detroit
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despite getting off to a good start this year.
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They remember, of course, Rangers winning the World Series
7:17
last year. So there's kind of that, you
7:19
know, public bias in mind. But 73% of bets are going Texas,
7:23
yet the line is flipped dog to fave toward Detroit.
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So aside from obviously this great sharp steam move, reverse
7:29
line move, better pitching staff for Detroit, their ERA is 3.14
7:34
versus 4.12. It's also a bit of a schedule
7:36
spot because if you look at, if you look at kind of the angle
7:41
here you have Texas playing their fourth straight Rd. game.
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Detroit is playing their fifth straight home game.
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So travel involved for Texas. Detroit, you know, same same
7:50
game here at Comerica Park as yesterday and throughout the
7:53
series. So hopefully that's an
7:54
advantage. And I'll give you one thing.
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I'm racking my brain and saying why did we see such a big line
7:59
move toward Detroit? I didn't really see too many
8:01
injuries. You know, guys not in the line
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up. One thing that kind of dawned on
8:05
me is I I bet the I bet the Rays yesterday against Blake Snell
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and the Giants and the A's or the Rays had a pretty good move.
8:13
And I'm thinking maybe it's because Lorenzen is making his
8:16
MLB or not his MLB, but his his season debut.
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Because if you look at Blake Snell yesterday, he got lit up
8:23
in his first start, in his second start.
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So if you haven't pitched you get a you know these are the
8:26
guys. I don't know if he's a Scott
8:28
Boris guy but these are the guys who signed really late and
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really had kind of a weird you know kind of off kilter spring
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training got their routine screwed up a little bit So
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Lorenzen making his debut maybe that's a a fade almost of of
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Blake Snell who got a a late start in the in the early season
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as well. So either way guys it seems
8:45
fishy doesn't make sense how do you not take Texas getting plus
8:48
money now but I got to go with this sharp line move.
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I'm going Detroit. Let's do it for my buddy Patrick
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Maher, who was the pride of of Detroit, MI.
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I'm on the Detroit Tigers. I got the Tigers at -115.
9:00
You're not looking around at some shops closer to -120, but
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let's go Detroit. Now the aforementioned Rays,
9:07
Let's go raise. I'm going right back to the well
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with the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. So this is a match up between
9:12
the Rays at home and the visiting Angels.
9:14
Angels are seven and eight. They just lost two of three
9:16
against the Red Sox. They lost 5 to 4 yesterday.
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Although the Sox blew it, they almost blew it.
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Kenley Jansen almost coughed it up late, but he struck out Mike
9:23
Trout to win it. The Rays meanwhile, 9 and seven.
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They continue to, you know, play well despite really not knowing
9:29
who they are and just plugging in new guys you never heard of.
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But anyway, they just took two or three against the Giants.
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They won nine to three. Yester 9 to 4 yesterday as kind
9:38
of like a very short minus one O 5 home dog.
9:40
So for tonight's series opener, we have the Angels going with
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lefty Patrick Sandoval one and two 6.57 ERA.
9:47
The Rays are sending out righty Zach Eflin one and two 6.35 ERA.
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This is just kind of a classic sharp line move toward a non
9:56
division favorite because Tampa Bay opened around -150, Tampa's
10:00
now up to -160, even -165 at some shops, we're getting around
10:04
80% of bets in dollars. So kind of both public you know
10:08
pro and Joe support. But really what's meaningful to
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me is that big 10 to 15 cents steam move in favor of Tampa
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Bay. Now I'm going to bank on Tampa
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Bay's bats. They're hitting 251 versus 240
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for the Angels. Also the Rays as I mentioned a
10:21
non division favorite, so the lack of familiarity benefiting
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the better team. Also correlative betting value
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as a favorite in a low total game told this one is 8 is
10:29
juiced up a little bit 8 / -, 115.
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But if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
10:34
from quote UN quote that better team.
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If you look at some of the stats here Sandoval he's been getting
10:38
knocked around quite a bit Tampa Bay.
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Eflin hasn't been good but he's got a good track record.
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So I'm thinking maybe Eflin gets back on track.
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This is a get right spot for him but I got to go.
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Tampa Bay Rays in this one guys good steam move, non division
10:51
home favorite. I'm going with the Rays.
10:53
I got the Rays at -160. Keep on cruising.
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Next one for you a team that I feel like I've been betting on
11:00
quite a bit recently and they've been coming through pretty good.
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Let's cope. It continues.
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Give me the New York Mets. Mets are at home against
11:06
Pittsburgh. This is a match up here where
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the Pirates got to give him credit.
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Off to a good start, 11 and five.
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They just split A4 game series against the Phillies.
11:15
They won nine to two yesterday as a big plus 165 row dog.
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Anyone who took the Pirates, good for you.
11:20
That's good pay out there. On the flip side, the Mets 7:00
11:23
and 8:00. They just took two of three
11:24
against the Royals, though they won two to one yesterday as a
11:27
very short -110 home favorite. So for tonight's series opener,
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the Pirates are going with lefty Martine Perez.
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One and O 1.89 ERA. Mets are countering with Adrian
11:37
Hauser, righty O and one 5.4 OERA.
11:40
But what are we seeing across the market here?
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Good, sharp reverse line move. Fade.
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The trendy dog spot in favor of the Mets.
11:47
The Mets open this game around a -, 115 home favorite.
11:50
So you open getting some plus money, like plus one O 5 to go
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to Pittsburgh. And right off the bat, isn't
11:56
that kind of fishy guys. Like, why are the Mets, who are
11:59
a game below 500, favored over the Pirates who are 11 and five?
12:02
Like, wouldn't you think that, hey, the team of the better
12:04
record should be favored even though you factor in?
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Of course, you know home field advantage.
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The Mets are at Citi Field, but the public is saying the wrong
12:12
team is favored. Give me plus money, Pittsburgh.
12:15
However, you are getting 71% of bets on Pittsburgh, but the line
12:19
keeps creeping up toward the Mets.
12:21
The Mets open -115. They're up to -120.
12:24
I see some shops even closer to -125 S This line's moving toward
12:28
the Mets, even though they're only getting 30% of bets.
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So that tells me we have a sharp reverse line move.
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RLM is when the betting line goes away from the popular side
12:36
toward the unpopular side. That's what we're seeing here.
12:38
Line going away from Pittsburgh getting 70% toward the Mets
12:42
getting 30%. So tells me we got wise guys
12:45
here on the Mets. Also, you look at decent bet
12:48
split here, 29% bets, nearly 40% of the money.
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And the Mets are playing pretty good here.
12:54
They started O and five we all know and now they're actually
12:57
seven and three over their last ten games.
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So maybe this is a kind of a classic buy low spot on the
13:02
Mets. It's a classic sell high spot on
13:04
Pittsburgh but again trusting the market, Publix all over the
13:08
buckles lines going to the Mets. So shop around guys.
13:11
I got the Mets at -120. Next one for you.
13:15
Another massive dog to fave line move with a system that I'm
13:19
going to brush off for us, which we haven't played in a while,
13:22
but it's one that a lot of the O GS love, and I do too.
13:25
I'll get to that in a second. But this is San Diego Padres.
13:28
Milwaukee Brew Crew. Now going into this one, the
13:31
Padres are 9:00 and 9:00. I got to give them credit.
13:33
They took two or three at the Dodgers.
13:34
That's hard to do. Dodgers don't lose too many
13:36
series ever, especially at home. But they won six to three on
13:40
Sunday Night Baseball last night they were plus 140.
13:43
Get to that Sunday Night Baseball angle here in a second.
13:45
But the Brewers are 10 and four. Just took two or three against
13:48
the Orioles. They did lose the finale
13:49
yesterday, Six to four as a + 195 row dog.
13:53
Tonight's series opener Padres are going with Ready Joe
13:56
Musgrove. Well that's been great to start
13:57
the year one and two 6.87 ERA. The Brewers meanwhile go with
14:02
Ready Joe Ross who's one and O 1.8 OERA.
14:05
But this is all about this dog to fave line move.
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The very similar in a way to the Texas Detroit game because we
14:11
open this one with San Diego, a pretty big favorite.
14:14
Not big, but San Diego was around -120, even -130 at some
14:18
shops. We've now seen the line flip
14:21
from San Diego -125 -, 130 to now the Brewers -115 -, 120.
14:28
So massive, massive steam move here flip dog to favorite again
14:32
Milwaukee opened you know getting plus 115, now they're
14:36
laying -115 -, 120, so dog to fave move which we love to see
14:40
because it takes a lot of respect and money to flip that
14:42
designation. Also, you look at with the with
14:47
the bet split here, 68% bets, 80% dollars.
14:51
So even though it's kind of slightly, slightly public, 68
14:53
percent 2/3 of bets tells us that we got the bigger money as
14:57
well on Milwaukee. In addition to that, low bets,
15:00
higher dollar, steam move, couple good systems.
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Here's what I really like about Milwaukee tonight.
15:04
One favorites off a loss. Brewers again lost to the
15:08
Orioles yesterday. Favorites off a loss are 63 and
15:11
37 this year, 63% with a 7% ROI. Milwaukee does have the better
15:17
bats, 3290 versus 258 for San Diego and better team pitching
15:21
staff ERA 3.85 versus 4.24. But the kicker here, and this
15:26
goes to the O GS who've been with me a while, fading teams
15:29
who played on Sunday Night Baseball.
15:31
It's a great system historically, but really what
15:34
you're trying to do is bet against a team that had to play
15:36
late. You got to remember the way the
15:38
schedule is on Sundays. You have most teams playing, you
15:40
know, one o'clock 4:00, a lot of early games.
15:43
So a lot of these teams are done by 4:00, five, o'clock, 6:00.
15:47
On the flip side, if you play on Sunday Night Baseball, you start
15:50
your game late, you go very late and then you have to turn around
15:53
and come back the next day and play.
15:55
So it's just a, it's a tough schedule spot to play on Sunday
15:58
Night baseball and then come back the next day and and play
16:00
again. So I want to fade the San Diego
16:03
Padres again, who had a big win, give him credit six to three
16:06
last night at the Dodgers. But now you got to go to
16:09
Milwaukee. You got to, you know, you get in
16:11
late versus Milwaukee. You played early in Baltimore
16:14
and then you're done early afternoon.
16:16
That's an advantage to Milwaukee.
16:17
It's a detriment to San Diego. I'm going with the advantage
16:20
play in the fade of San Diego playing Sunday Night baseball.
16:23
Give me Milwaukee. I'm on the Brew Crew guys.
16:26
Great dog to fave line move. I got Milwaukee at -115.
16:31
Last bet in MLB for you. I'm going to call this a value
16:34
play. Not exactly a sharp play, but a
16:37
value play. Kansas City Royals.
16:39
I'm going KC tonight. KC is playing the Chicago White
16:42
Sox. KC Open run -160.
16:46
They're pretty much -165. You know, a little bit of
16:48
movement, maybe 5-10, ten cents of steam.
16:50
Not nothing crazy, not crazy sharp.
16:52
They are very public. They're getting upwards of 80%
16:54
of bets in dollars. But here's the angle.
16:57
I got some systems on Kansas City and I want to fade the
17:00
White Sox because the pitching match up here hopefully is a big
17:04
advantage to Casey. Casey is going with Lugo Seth
17:07
Lugo, who they picked up as a free agent.
17:09
He's been great, two and O, 1.45 ERA.
17:12
He'll be opposed by Nick Mastrini or Nick Nestrini.
17:16
Nostrini. I don't even know how to
17:18
pronounce his name. He's a 24 year old kid making
17:20
his Major League debut. So I want to bet against this
17:23
kid making his debut. Tough spot.
17:25
Now you got to go against the Royals team that is off to a
17:28
great start this year, but if you look at some system matches
17:31
in Kansas City's, favor one favorite off a loss 63 and 3763
17:36
percent, 7% ROI. Mentioned that earlier.
17:39
And then also Rd. favorites, road favorites and MLB are 50
17:43
and 2765% with a 14% ROI. Now Kansas City is 4 and O head
17:49
to head against the White Sox this year.
17:51
If you look at the White Sox lineup, they got a lot of guys
17:54
hitting below the Mendoza line, you know, sub 200 hitters here
17:58
they're the bats are a big reason why I want to back KC.
18:01
So it's not only, you know, betting on the Royals and
18:03
against the White Sox, but really betting on the offense of
18:06
Kansas City in particular. They're hitting 250 versus only
18:09
200 for the White Sox. The Royals have scored 85 runs,
18:13
only 34 for the White Sox. Also better pitching staff. 3
18:17
point O 4 ERA versus 4.97. And we do have a classic
18:21
favorite low total. Told this one is 8.
18:23
Juiced up pretty good to the under.
18:24
I believe it fell 9 down to 8. Yeah, 9 down to 8 and now it's
18:29
even maybe going to 7 1/2. So fair amount of expected run
18:32
scored again, better to to go with that favorite.
18:35
The better team expected to win and we do have a little bit of
18:38
wind blowing in at US Cellular Field.
18:39
But either way guys, I'm going to bet against this kid making
18:42
his debut. Royals magic bunch of systems
18:45
here. Not exactly a sharp bet, but a
18:47
value play. I'm on the Royals.
18:49
I got Kansas City at -165 S 5 Pack here.
18:53
Can we get three or more? Detroit, Tampa Bay, the Mets,
18:56
the Brew Crew and the Kansas City Royals.
18:59
Now over to the NHLI. Got one NHL bet for you guys and
19:03
then I'm going to give me some odds and ends here to finish up
19:06
the pod. Just a couple updates I want to
19:08
throw your way. But game that caught my eye
19:10
tonight. The Minnesota Wild and the LA
19:12
Kings. For whatever reason, I feel like
19:14
I bet a lot of Kings games. I like sweating them late, but
19:17
they're in a good situation here tonight.
19:18
So once again you know NBA to me is on.
19:22
I got PTSD from the last week NBA.
19:24
Nothing went my way. It's erratic.
19:26
I hate kind of the ending of of season.
19:28
Just crazy things can happen. But NHL, there's a couple angles
19:32
here still with motivation. So teams that are eliminated
19:35
versus teams that have something to play for.
19:37
And here's one that matches tonight on the Kings.
19:40
So 9:30 PM Eastern Time game. I've seen some line movement
19:43
toward the Kings. They open around -160.
19:45
Some shops are -165 -, 170. So line is moving in favor of
19:50
the Kings. Now one angle to back the Kings
19:53
will be rest first tired Minnesota is playing their third
19:56
game in four nights. The Kings are playing their
19:58
second game in four nights. So one day, extra rest here for
20:01
the Kings. Better offense for the Kings,
20:03
3.1 goals game versus 3. Better defense.
20:06
This is where it really, you know, becomes a glaring
20:09
discrepancy. 2.5 goals allowed per game versus 3.2.
20:13
Better penalty kill, 85% versus 74%.
20:16
And I'm going to put a lot of stock into the motivational
20:19
aspect and the goaltending. The Minnesota Wild are expected
20:23
to start Jasper Walstead. He's a first round pick, but
20:26
he's a rookie and he's only made I believe two or three starts in
20:29
his career and so far he's got a three-point O one goals against
20:32
897 save percentage against. I expected to be Cam Talbot
20:38
who's been good this year, 2.46 goals against 9/16 save
20:41
percentage and the Kings just beat I believe.
20:44
I think it was the Ducks 3:00 to 1:00 and David Riddick started
20:47
that one. So Talbot should be rested and
20:49
ready to go. Now other supplementary factors,
20:52
Kings are two and O head to They're 2111 and seven at home
20:57
and they have a + 42 goals goal differential versus -13 for
21:01
Minnesota. But, and also, I'll give you
21:04
this one favorite low total. Don't talk about it a ton.
21:06
In hockey, this is a total of 5 1/2.
21:08
It is just up over. That's a low total in hockey.
21:10
So if your amount of expected goals scored more likely to come
21:13
from the better team. But here's the kind of kicker
21:16
here, the motivational angle. Minnesota is eliminated from the
21:20
postseason. They're not going to make the
21:21
playoffs. Statistically, they can't make
21:23
it. They're done.
21:24
They don't have much to play for.
21:25
The Kings have something to play for tonight.
21:27
The Kings have clinched the they've clinched the playoff
21:30
spot, but right now they're one point ahead of Vegas for the
21:34
third spot in the Pacific. Now if they can hold off Vegas,
21:38
they'll get that third spot. If Vegas overlaps them, then
21:42
basically the the Kings become a wild card team versus a top
21:47
three division winner. And you you basically it's it's
21:49
the worst situation for you in terms of home ice, in terms of
21:53
your opponent. So you want to win this one.
21:55
If you're the Kings, you want to hold off the Vegas Golden
21:57
Knights, you want to get that third spot in the Pacific and
22:00
not be a wild card team. So that's really what the Kings
22:03
are fighting for tonight. They're one game up on the VGK
22:07
and they got to keep winning to keep to fend off VGK.
22:09
So at home, a little bit of line movement going up against the
22:13
rookie goaltender arrested starter here for the Kings.
22:16
I'm going to go with the LA Kings here guys.
22:18
Shop around. I got the Kings at -165.
22:23
So you have it guys. Another pod here in the books.
22:25
Episode 23 on a marathon Monday want to give you some odds and
22:29
ends, some updates, and I'm going to tell you about rhythm.
22:31
And then we'll get out of here and get ready to sweat our games
22:33
for tonight. But some odds and ends people
22:35
been asking me about the NFL draft.
22:37
We are now 10 days away from the NFL draft, so we're getting
22:40
close. And I've been monitoring
22:42
DraftKings, FanDuel, all the different sports books.
22:44
They're starting to post more bets.
22:47
But here's what I want to do. I want to use the last week of
22:49
Steam to make our bets here. So we have a lot of over under
22:52
draft positions head to heads. You know, I did notice one thing
22:56
in particular, Jaden Daniels going second to the commanders.
23:00
Obviously I'm a Pats fan. They're linked to Drake Mayor
23:02
McCarthy, but you have Jaden Daniels.
23:05
I now think he's like -240 to go second overall.
23:08
So is that you know going to be a domino here that we can kind
23:11
of project off of? I just want to mention get
23:13
ready. I'm going to give you guys some
23:14
NFL draft bets over the next few days, of course, leading into
23:17
next week. So the game we're playing here
23:19
is we want to wait late to see where the movement's going
23:23
because a lot of the early, you know, kind of odds are basically
23:27
generated based on a lot of mock drafts.
23:30
But then once you get to the last 10 days, last week, last
23:32
few days, that's when word leaks out that, you know, legit word
23:36
of, you know who these guys want to take.
23:38
So we want to follow that late movement.
23:39
We also don't want to wait too late.
23:41
We want to try to get some good numbers.
23:42
So just stay tuned for you NFL draft Knicks out there.
23:45
We will have draft props upcoming over the next few pods
23:48
here. Also NHL and NBA playoff series.
23:52
Don't worry I will have some playoff series bets for you.
23:54
I usually try to pick a couple. I want to wait late though I'm
23:57
I'm going to probably bypass these playing games.
24:01
I'm looking at like a couple here with short spreads like I
24:03
noticed Tomorrow we'll hit on it.
24:05
But the Warriors at the Kings the Warriors went from -1 up to
24:09
-2 1/2 and then Lakers Pelicans. It's a very short like pick em
24:14
-1 toward the Pelicans. So if you look at kind of these
24:19
early games, maybe bet them individually.
24:21
But I want to really wait and get a fresh batch of data on
24:24
some series prices and look at some series bets opportunities
24:28
because it's always good to get in early.
24:30
You can hedge it, you can kind of play different bets off each
24:33
other, but we will have some playoff bets, series price bets
24:36
for both NHL and NBA. But that about does it as I
24:39
mentioned. Just want to mention a couple
24:40
updates there, but a couple things here to finish up.
24:43
Lastly, if you enjoy the Pod and the last week was a rough week
24:47
but hopefully after a sweep on Sunday, that means we're back in
24:50
back to our winning ways. Knock on wood.
24:52
But if the all systems go pod, it's something you enjoy.
24:56
Has it helped you to make sharper bets, Beat closing
24:58
lines? Have you?
24:59
Do you feel like this pod is hopefully teaching you a few
25:02
things every every pod here and there?
25:03
Maybe you learn a little little tip system strategy.
25:07
Maybe it's gotten you into data-driven betting in terms of
25:09
looking at line movement system matches bet splits, flat
25:13
bedding, not parlaying, grinding the bet to risk first bet to
25:17
win. I can't tell you how many people
25:18
have you know kind of once they discover the bet Tris first bet
25:21
to win it really changes a lot for them.
25:23
I had a one person particular mentioning to me how he was
25:27
betting to win. He didn't understand it but he
25:29
was losing on favorites. He's like man, I can't bet
25:30
favorites. I keep losing and I say hey
25:33
you're betting to win my man you got to bet to risk just risk one
25:35
unit and it kind of changed his his approach there.
25:38
So if any of that is the case and the All Systems Go pod is
25:41
helping you along in your sports betting journey, you want to let
25:43
me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in grinding in
25:46
the arena each day. Then there's one thing I ask of
25:49
you. Well, I'm going to ask you two
25:50
things, but here's the first one.
25:51
Can you please, please, please, please give this podcast a five
25:55
star review on Spotify or iTunes?
25:59
It would mean a lot to me guys. It would help boost our ratings.
26:01
Spread the word, tell a friend. But seriously, if you can give
26:04
it five stars, that would really go a long way to building this
26:07
pod and and hopefully giving it more exposure.
26:10
And then of course if you enjoy the pod, if you enjoy the
26:13
breakdowns, if you want to learn more about data-driven sports
26:15
betting, then you can go buy my book, make my day.
26:18
It only cost 20 bucks. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
26:20
the Everything Guide to Sports betting, pick up a copy for you
26:23
or for a friend. As I mentioned, it's got
26:26
everything I've learned in the industry.
26:27
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
26:30
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
26:32
person or online, how to go contrarian.
26:34
All included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:36
So buy a copy, get it for a friend and I'll sign it for you
26:40
and buy Abia next time I see you at the book.
26:43
But that about does it. Lastly, Rhythm.
26:45
You know, I got to tell you more about rhythm because I was
26:48
noticing even though I am not a big golf guy, I should be more
26:51
of a golf guy. And rhythm's going to help me to
26:53
be more of a golf guy because the masters shout out to anyone
26:56
who bet Scotty Scheffler. Apparently Scheffler's pretty
26:59
good, not Adam Schefter. Scotty Scheffler.
27:02
But anyway, Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports betting app
27:05
for data, back picks and props. Rhythm just added golf Rhythm
27:09
powers. This podcast Rhythm is awesome.
27:11
I can't wait for their NBA projections to come here for NBA
27:16
playoffs here shortly. But if you haven't done it yet,
27:19
I want you to go give Rhythm a shot because it is awesome.
27:22
It's going to help you win and it's a free seven day trial to
27:25
see if you like it. So all you got to do in order to
27:27
sign up for Rhythm is go to my Twitter page.
27:30
Give me a follow at Josh under score Insights.
27:33
There's a pinned tweet at the top of my profile.
27:35
Click that custom link for rhythm.
27:37
Give it a shot. Start playing around with it.
27:39
Make some money like my buddy Gary Gary Garrison who's
27:42
crushing rhythm and you can also click in Spotify in the bio or
27:47
the description of the podcast. It'll give you a link to Rhythm
27:49
as well. But make sure you use that
27:50
custom link in my Twitter profile or the all systems go
27:53
Twitter profile so it rhythm knows that I sent you their way
27:56
because that's important. That about does it guys.
27:59
Other pod here in the books. Let's start off marathon Monday
28:01
in a new week. Hopefully on a high note, but of
28:04
course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
28:08
River in Rhode Island. The Brooklyn, New Hampshire
28:09
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun in Connecticut.
28:13
At the encore In Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
28:16
Springfield. Or, of course, in the desert
28:18
where the true grinders get down.
28:19
Where Billy Walters gets the best juice price and sends his
28:22
number. Runners or beards, as they're
28:24
called. Wherever it may be, of course.
28:26
Stadium, Swim, circa. Can't forget that one.
28:29
Wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me, throw away.
28:31
Last week's plays just was a down week.
28:34
But how about on Sunday? Did you read the sharp report
28:36
that I write for veeson.com? Tigers raise A's all came
28:39
through. Flash one of those bets, bet
28:41
splits, and guess what? We're going to cash them.
28:43
And then we're going to go. I'm going to buy you a drink,
28:45
then you're going to buy me the next one That we're going to
28:47
sweat. Sharp contrarian plays all night
28:49
long. So I wish you the best of luck.
28:51
Everyone have a great rest of your Monday.
28:54
My parting words, as always, Stay sharp, stay contrarian.
28:57
Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
28:59
the house. Always be with the smart money.
29:01
Never against it. Will smart money win every time?
29:03
Of course not. We won a week of smart money
29:05
bets letting us down and bad beats left and right.
29:08
But here's the thing. Never give up, never quit, never
29:11
double down, never chase, just consistent flat betting bet.
29:16
Tris first bet to win one unit per play.
29:18
And hopefully we're going to start off this week on a good
29:20
note. So if we can find that that
29:22
sweet spot against the public with the house, with the pros
29:25
flat bet, avoid parlays, get some closing line value.
29:28
If we can do that, and I'm confident we will, we're going
29:30
to be sharp and winning sports betters long term.
29:33
So enjoy the sweats everyone. That's episode 23 of the All
29:36
Systems Go pod in the books. Enjoy your your games here for
29:39
tonight. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
29:41
episode 24 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast.
29:45
Good luck and happy marathon Monday.