Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson explains how Trump's policy announcements are impacting capital markets

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson explains how Trump's policy announcements are impacting capital markets · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks. They'd be
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  Speaker 1: follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
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  Speaker 2: Shane Solely from Harbor Asset Management is with us this evening.
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  Speaker 2: Go out to Shane.
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  Speaker 3: Hey, Jed.
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  Speaker 4: Let's take a little bit of a look at the
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  Speaker 4: markets and are we at maximum Trump government policy uncertainty
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  Speaker 4: for the capital markets? How have the capital markets reacted
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  Speaker 4: to recent US policy announcements.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the quick quick statements, we're not sure,
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  Speaker 3: you know, we haven't seen anything that could come down
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  Speaker 3: the line. But what we're seeing is President elect Trump
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  Speaker 3: has policy announced. They're certainly causing some choppiness and capital markets,
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  Speaker 3: but the trend has actually been more positive in the headlines.
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  Speaker 3: We actually saw the US shear market, for example, up
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  Speaker 3: just under six percent of November. And one of the
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  Speaker 3: things that happened in the later in the month was
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  Speaker 3: mister Trump picked a guy called Scott the Sent to
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  Speaker 3: be Treasury Secretary, and he was taken as being a
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  Speaker 3: sort of a seasoned choice that might could stabilize markets
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  Speaker 3: and be a little more considered on terms of terriffs
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  Speaker 3: and text cuts. He actually saw long term bond you
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  Speaker 3: fall sheer maker go up. And then of course mister
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  Speaker 3: Trump doubled down with his discussion about putting tariffs additional
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  Speaker 3: terrorists on China, which we had already thought about, but
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  Speaker 3: then slipping out of twenty five percent tariffs on Canada
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  Speaker 3: and Mexico, and that really got people excited. And obviously
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  Speaker 3: he's targeting migrants and legal drugs came across the borders.
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  Speaker 3: That that push to add tariffs on to Canada and
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  Speaker 3: Mexico has implications for supply chains, even for companies like
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  Speaker 3: Fisher and piper Alcare that manufacture out of Mexico. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: it's we're in for a few more weeks of policy
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  Speaker 3: announcements that could surprise investors. A good example is whether
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  Speaker 3: Robert IF Kennedy Junior gets confirmed as the Department of
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  Speaker 3: Health and Human Services, and that would cause a little
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  Speaker 3: bit of uncertainty for investors. I think probably that we've
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  Speaker 3: got to keep watching our Trump Media Truth social media
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  Speaker 3: platform to find out what mister Trump's going to be next.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, back home, Shane, are you seeing signs that the
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  Speaker 5: New Zealand economy might just be reawakening from its slumber?
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  Speaker 5: A recent reserve bank rate cuts driving more consumer and
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  Speaker 5: business confidence.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, I think it's a good point your raised, Jack.
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  Speaker 3: We have sort of weathered one of the tougher central
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  Speaker 3: bank interest rate increased cycles globally when we look around
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  Speaker 3: the world, we really took a better medicine. But more
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  Speaker 3: recently we've seen business and consumer confidence bounced back in
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  Speaker 3: the last few weeks. That is certainly Reserve Bank and
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  Speaker 3: cutting official rates that reduces the interest costs for borrowers,
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  Speaker 3: but there might be a couple of other factors giving
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  Speaker 3: us a bit of a boost as well. You know, diairy,
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  Speaker 3: pretty solid diary season, an unusual combination of higher volume
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  Speaker 3: production and good firm pricing. And yes, the dairy farmers
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  Speaker 3: out there will be telling me, yes, the cost of
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  Speaker 3: producing a gone up, but it's still a benefit and
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  Speaker 3: that may trickle down. We are seeing some signs of
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  Speaker 3: recovery in China's economic activity. It's not huge yet, but
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  Speaker 3: even over the weekend we saw these lead indicators there's
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  Speaker 3: purchasing manager and this is they were up above fifty,
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  Speaker 3: which suggests the economies at least expand AGGIN after some
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  Speaker 3: of the stimulus that's announced. And then finally we've had
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  Speaker 3: a bit of a next lot of data on construction
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  Speaker 3: activity in New Zealand. We saw October building permits down
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  Speaker 3: five point two percent of the month, down to almost
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  Speaker 3: sixteen percent for the twelve months of October to thirty
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  Speaker 3: two thousand starts here in New Zealand of homes. But
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  Speaker 3: against that, we've also seen the Reserve Bank US Marge
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  Speaker 3: Landing starting to pick up, which she saw a thirty
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  Speaker 3: percent increase in October in the same month in twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty three with investors actually shine a bit of spy.
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  Speaker 3: So it's mixed, but we are seeing, you know, the
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  Speaker 3: some green shoots coming through and our shoemaker here not
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  Speaker 3: as exciting as the US market was actually up three
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  Speaker 3: point four percent over the month of November, so the
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  Speaker 3: market looks forward.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's so what announcements are you keeping an eye
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  Speaker 2: on this week?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, it's going to be another week where we
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  Speaker 3: watch what happens to the US data, particularly job opening
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  Speaker 3: data out tomorrow and on Friday. This this is called
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  Speaker 3: the payroll data, and this is all about getting some
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  Speaker 3: indications for what the US vigil Reserve, which which is
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  Speaker 3: the US Central Bank, might do with official rates. On
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  Speaker 3: the eighteenth of December, and the market sort of unwound
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  Speaker 3: expectations of big cuts, is only about twenty or point
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  Speaker 3: two of a percent cut priced in now, so that'll
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  Speaker 3: be interesting. Wednesday, we've got secret you can have the
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  Speaker 3: data out of Australia and China, obviously two key trade
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  Speaker 3: partners for New Zealand. We've also got some company years Sily,
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  Speaker 3: the dairy producer, which is seen a little bit of
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  Speaker 3: financial pressure recently. Then due to report to the annual
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  Speaker 3: Shield to meet on Wednesday. We've also going to invest
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  Speaker 3: a day from Somerset. The retirement village operated on Wednesday,
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  Speaker 3: and again that might get a bit of insight into
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  Speaker 3: their future. Friday we wrap up with doesn't sound very exciting,
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  Speaker 3: but it's actually quite important. Is the Australian S and
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  Speaker 3: P A six two hundred index, which is the main
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  Speaker 3: benchmark Australian investors used to decide what she is to
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  Speaker 3: invest in. And there's some suggestion that Fletcher Building has
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  Speaker 3: spark could be removed from that, which may actually see
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  Speaker 3: some more selling than those two stops from Australian investors.
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  Speaker 3: Busy week Chack, Yeah, very good.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, thanks Shane, appreciate it. Shane. Solid there from Harbor
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  Speaker 2: Asset Management.
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