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Best Technology Opportunities Lie Away From The Herd · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg pm L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for
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  Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Focused
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: in the markets for the past few weeks has been
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: with her tech. Are we heading toward some sort of
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: peak in the valuation here, especially as we see chips
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: start to lose some luster and as we start to
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: have some questions about the likes that you got that
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: down grade. Yesterday my key Bank Capital they were talking
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: about Cyper Semiconductor n XP Semiconductor, both downgrading because they're
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: awarried about things like autonomous driving and automobile tariffs. Yeah, well,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I think Kevin Landis might be a little bit get
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: worried about autonomous driving. He's the CEO and Chief Investment
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: officer at Firsthand Capital Management, also the CEO Firsthand Technology
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  Speaker 1: Value Fund, which trades on the NASDACS s vv c UH,
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  Speaker 1: and he is based typically in San Jose, California. Thank
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  Speaker 1: you so much. For being with us, Kevin, thanks good
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  Speaker 1: to be here. So I want to get your view
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  Speaker 1: on the autonomous driving because we really have seen some
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  Speaker 1: choppy valuation there, with the likes of dime Ler investing
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  Speaker 1: a lot in it not getting rewarded, and Tesla perhaps
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  Speaker 1: arguably getting rewarded too much. Where are we with with
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  Speaker 1: this area. Well, I think, like a lot of complex problems,
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  Speaker 1: the way it's being tackled is to break it into
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  Speaker 1: smaller problems. So, for example, Uh, we're all very familiar
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: with cruise control, that's no big deal. But in the
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  Speaker 1: last few years, people have started noticing that their new
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  Speaker 1: cars had adaptive cruise control, which would uh take into
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  Speaker 1: account how close you are to the car you're following. Uh. Similarly,
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  Speaker 1: we were now getting comfortable that our car can do
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  Speaker 1: parallel parking, which is better than most of us can do. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: So they're they're putting the pieces together. They haven't got
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  Speaker 1: the whole thing quite yet, but they're getting really close. Kevin, Landish,
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  Speaker 1: just to maybe offer people a little bit of your
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  Speaker 1: background firsthand, was a pre I p O investor in Facebook,
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  Speaker 1: in Twitter, in Solar City, in Yelp, in Roku. That's
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  Speaker 1: a pretty good track record, any dud's in there that
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  Speaker 1: we should just be aware of. Oh none, zero? Right, Yeah. Well,
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  Speaker 1: the reason I ask us because sometimes you learn a
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  Speaker 1: lot more from your mistakes than you do from your winners. Absolutely,
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  Speaker 1: success is a poor teacher. And uh, for better or
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: for worse, we've had ample opportunity to learn along the way. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, you you try to take a lesson
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  Speaker 1: uh from every loss, and when you have a winner,
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  Speaker 1: you try to remind yourself that there may be a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of luck in there too. Alright, So in
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  Speaker 1: that context, tell us a little bit about this world
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  Speaker 1: of electric vehicles, alternative few vehicles, as well as autonomous driving.
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  Speaker 1: Because I want to note that the Dinler's chief executive officer,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Dita zet Um, he's no longer going to be the CEO.
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  Speaker 1: They're turning to Ola Collenneus, who is really the head
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  Speaker 1: of research and development. That certainly points the way for
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  Speaker 1: a dimeler. Well, so the way you relate to your
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  Speaker 1: car as a human being has has changed, right, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: in some sense a lot of us in the rest
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  Speaker 1: of the country are turning into New Yorkers. We just
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  Speaker 1: want to get into the backseat and uh, and and
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  Speaker 1: read or listen to music while a car takes us
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  Speaker 1: where we want to go. And and that's that's kind
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  Speaker 1: of a natural thing. And uh, we're gonna be in
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  Speaker 1: this heterogeneous environment here where you've got some people driving,
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  Speaker 1: some people in self driving vehicles, some people who have
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  Speaker 1: decided they're never even going to get their first driver's license.
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  Speaker 1: And uh, and then they've got you'll have this underlying
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  Speaker 1: technology that gets relentlessly better. But we're not. We we
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  Speaker 1: can't and we won't wait for perfection before we put
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  Speaker 1: it out there. So there's gonna be some bumps along
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  Speaker 1: the way. I want to talk just about your investment
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  Speaker 1: process us, especially right now, given how much money is
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  Speaker 1: being funneled into the tech industry. Are you seeing any opportunities,
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  Speaker 1: especially in the non public markets, given how much cash
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  Speaker 1: is flowt in. Oh sure, I mean there's lots of
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  Speaker 1: great new startup You could spend your entire day just
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  Speaker 1: listening to new startup companies. Uh. And that's I think
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  Speaker 1: that's been true just for my entire lifetime here in
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  Speaker 1: the valley. Um. But what's interesting is the big bucks
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  Speaker 1: flowing in tend to pile up in front of the
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  Speaker 1: really popular ideas. So today everybody wants to invest in
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  Speaker 1: AI some form of a are you everybody is putting
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  Speaker 1: an AI slide in their pitch deck so that they
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  Speaker 1: can say they're an AI company. Uh. And typically, as
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  Speaker 1: you could imagine um, as with any investment, if you're
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  Speaker 1: chasing after the same thing that everybody else is chasing after,
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  Speaker 1: you're not getting a very good price and you're probably
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  Speaker 1: not being compensated for all the risk that you're taking. Sorry, well,
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  Speaker 1: I just wanted to follow up that, because then where
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  Speaker 1: are you seeing money not flowing that it should be flowing. Well,
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  Speaker 1: when's the last time you heard somebody say it's time
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  Speaker 1: to invest in semi conductors um private semi conductor startups?
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  Speaker 1: No one says that. And because no one saying that,
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  Speaker 1: we're having to look there, because you know, we're not
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  Speaker 1: having to go to an open auction every time we
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  Speaker 1: want to fund a company. And you know, when you're
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: talking about the evolution of the car, one of the
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  Speaker 1: things that's going to happen there is that the power
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  Speaker 1: electronics within the car are going to get a lot
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  Speaker 1: more challenging, and you're not going to be able to
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  Speaker 1: do it in silicon and you have to dive deep
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  Speaker 1: into the advanced materials of silicon carbide or gallium arsenite
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  Speaker 1: or something or I'm sorry, gallium nitrite or something like this.
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  Speaker 1: It's really deep, basic fundamental underlying tech. It's pretty interesting,
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  Speaker 1: pretty exciting, and I run into basically zero other investors
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  Speaker 1: when I go to visit these companies. Kevin, I'm going
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  Speaker 1: to give you a choice to talk specifics. Pivotal Systems,
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  Speaker 1: intra opt Medical Corps or Revessum. I don't know if
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  Speaker 1: I'm pronouncing that correctly, but Reversum is a Australian company,
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  Speaker 1: right and it is a company that makes what is
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  Speaker 1: described as chemical mechanical planarization and grinding tools for the
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  Speaker 1: semiconductor industry. What does it do well? So I get
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  Speaker 1: to take myself off the hook on Vossum because they're
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  Speaker 1: exploring an Australian listing right now, and uh so because
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  Speaker 1: they're they're out on the road, but they haven't filed
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  Speaker 1: their perspectus yet. I'll have to come back and tell
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  Speaker 1: all right, fair enoughther details another day. But let me
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  Speaker 1: tell you Pivotal Systems beat them to the punch. They
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  Speaker 1: went public on the a s X on June that's
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  Speaker 1: when they're their ip A was priced. And for us,
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  Speaker 1: this is the first time we've ever invested in a
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  Speaker 1: company that went public, but not here in the US.
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  Speaker 1: They went down Under for it, and the reason was
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  Speaker 1: that that they were less than fifty million in revenues
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  Speaker 1: and really didn't have the size to make the big
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  Speaker 1: enough splash to have a nice sexy NASAC listing. Um.
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  Speaker 1: But for the Australian market is a good fit, okay.
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  Speaker 1: But this is what a company that does controls for
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  Speaker 1: the for the semiconductive manufacturing industry. Right. So, the manufacturing
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  Speaker 1: process of of wafer semichnactter wafers involves in a lot
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  Speaker 1: of times evacuating a chamber, putting a wafer in there,
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  Speaker 1: and then pumping in a very specific type of gas
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  Speaker 1: at a certain type of pressure, and then you know,
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  Speaker 1: you're basically baking the wafer, that's how you process it, uh,
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  Speaker 1: and you're baking different gases into it. They have dozens
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  Speaker 1: of different types of gases and dozens of different process steps.
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  Speaker 1: And so just the market for mass flow controllers, which
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  Speaker 1: is what Pivotal does, it's about a five million dollar
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  Speaker 1: market and Pivotal is a little company with the better
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  Speaker 1: mouse trap taking market share there based in Fremont, California.
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  Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, thank you very much. Kevin landis joining
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  Speaker 1: us as the chief executive chief investment officer of Firsthand
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  Speaker 1: Capital Management. And just to note that the Firsthands Technology
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Value Fund trades under the symbol s v v C
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  Speaker 1: and it is publicly listed and publicly traded, and the
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: shares of s VVC they're up more than eight year
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  Speaker 1: to date. The topic right now though, the housing industry,
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  Speaker 1: and we've got Brad Hunter, chief economist at Home Adviser,
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  Speaker 1: to tell us about the housing industry and whether rising
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  Speaker 1: interest rates are going to curtail the acceleration in housing sales.
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  Speaker 1: We've got new home sales today, Brad. They were up
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  Speaker 1: three and a half percent month over month, upcent year
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  Speaker 1: over year. Also saw an increase in mortgage applications. They
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  Speaker 1: were up nearly three percent. What's the role of housing
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  Speaker 1: right now, sin, thanks for having me on. Yeah, demand
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  Speaker 1: is strong. The problems for home builders are all on
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  Speaker 1: the supply side. Demand might become an issue once mortgage
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  Speaker 1: rates get above five percent, or if home prices go
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  Speaker 1: up faster than I expect them to. But household formations
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  Speaker 1: are are well over a million, really in their one
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  Speaker 1: point three million range. Now you add on a replacement
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  Speaker 1: of two hundred thousand or so units the year or more,
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  Speaker 1: and demand is well above production, and most markets are
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  Speaker 1: still affordable. But you know, pricing is is going to
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  Speaker 1: become the next issue as interest rates go up. You know, Abroad,
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  Speaker 1: I'm struck by some of the weakness and where we've
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  Speaker 1: seen some of the weakness of late New York, New Jersey,
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  Speaker 1: Westchester places that are affected by some of the tax changes.
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  Speaker 1: I'm wondering how much has the tax cut and some
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  Speaker 1: of the alterations with respect to the salt deductions affected
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  Speaker 1: housing values in the northeastern particular. I don't think it's
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  Speaker 1: had much of an effect at all, because most people
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  Speaker 1: do not itemize, and so even fewer are going to
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  Speaker 1: itemize the future given the standard deduction change. So I
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  Speaker 1: don't see that as a big deal um in terms
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  Speaker 1: of policy changes, I see the tariffs as more of
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  Speaker 1: a concern. Really, do you think, well, yeah, when when
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  Speaker 1: you think about the home builders and how much production
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  Speaker 1: they can bring to bear in this undersupplied market. They're
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  Speaker 1: facing what they call the three ls, land, labor and lumber,
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  Speaker 1: and lumber is really shorthand for materials, so um, lumber,
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  Speaker 1: steal aluminum. These are things that are being affected greatly
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  Speaker 1: by tariffs, and it's gonna had a couple of thousand dollars.
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  Speaker 1: These arteris are gonna had a couple of thousand dollars
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  Speaker 1: to the production costs of the average home. And so
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  Speaker 1: it's getting harder and harder for home builders to serve
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  Speaker 1: the millennials and other people that are just trying to
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  Speaker 1: get into homes for the first time. Well, Brad, in
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  Speaker 1: that context of rising lumber prices, does that mean that
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  Speaker 1: it is now time to buy home building stocks because
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  Speaker 1: they've already sold off in response to that increase in price. Well,
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  Speaker 1: I don't give advice or a commentary on what you
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  Speaker 1: know whether to buy or sell stocks, but what I
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  Speaker 1: can say is that the home builders are facing these constraints,
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  Speaker 1: and one of the biggest constraints that they're facing is
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  Speaker 1: actually the other l which is land um and the
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  Speaker 1: land and lots supplies extremely tight. The prices of land
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  Speaker 1: are really making it prohibitive for them to serve the
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  Speaker 1: lower echelons of the market. I'll give you an example
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  Speaker 1: in Dallas Texas, a new home demand is under two
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  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars, but the percentage of lots that
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: are available that are suited to that price range are
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  Speaker 1: much lower. In Dallas, the percentage of developed lots, according
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: to Metro study, suited for homes five hundred thousand and
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  Speaker 1: up has risen from ten percent ten years ago to
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  Speaker 1: twenty three point one percent, and only twelve percent of
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  Speaker 1: the lots are suited for homes under two demand, twelve
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  Speaker 1: of the supply. Um. You know, so what that's forcing
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  Speaker 1: the builders to do is to buy land and locations
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  Speaker 1: that are more and more distant from the urban cores
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  Speaker 1: and markets all around the country. And you know, occasionally
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  Speaker 1: when they're lucky doing an infol project in a condemned
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  Speaker 1: shopping center, closed air force base or golf course, but um,
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  Speaker 1: they are having to build farther and farther out. Rod Hunter,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. It's sort of
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: ignites my imagination about what home ownership will look like
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: going forward, if it really will turn it into people
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: at the top can buy homes and people at the
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: bottom have to rent, or or how this is going
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: to get reconfigured. A conversation for another time. Brad Hunter,
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  Speaker 1: chief economist at Home Adviser. It's time to turn to
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: car Whicka Donna, our chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics,
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  Speaker 1: to give us some insight into the into today's federal
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: reserve rate decision. And Carl, just to give you a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of oomph. Their new home sales coming out
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  Speaker 1: just moments ago for the month of August six and
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: twenty nine thousand. The estimate was for six thirtyes, so
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: that was right seemingly right on target. But new home
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  Speaker 1: sales month over month increase of three and a half percent.
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  Speaker 1: Add that to a nearly three percent increase in mortgage application.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Seems as though the housing markets doing pretty well well. Pim,
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  Speaker 1: first of all, a good morning, and thanks for having
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: me on the program. Housing markets doing okay. If we
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: look at the new home sales, they're up about in
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: your on your terms. That being said, we've had a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of a cold streak over the last couple
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  Speaker 1: of months, so uh, we we met expectations for today's forecast,
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  Speaker 1: but the prior months were indeed the revised lower that
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  Speaker 1: was troop for both July and June. Uh, and what
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: we're seeing is mortgage rates for ex ample, if we
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: look at the thirty year mortgage rates definitely creeping higher,
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  Speaker 1: and this is starting to weigh on affordability about four
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  Speaker 1: and a half percent. That that's higher than most homebuyers
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: are used to so historically, absolutely, that's still a very
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: low lending rate, but not for folks who are accustomed
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  Speaker 1: to what they've seen in the market of the last
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: fifteen years or so. And if we look at what's
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: driving the economy right now, housing is definitely not part
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: of it. And so it looks like interessensitive spending is
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: indeed starting to be impacted by FED rate tightening. And
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: let's pick up on that. We're going to talk more
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: about the housing market later on in this hour, but
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I want to get to this sort of rate hiking environment.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: The fact of the FED is expected to raise rates
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: and the fact that we saw two year and five
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: year auctions this week that we're less than inspired. And
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  Speaker 1: I have to wonder why are people so uncertain with
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: a lead up to this meeting, considering the fact that
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: it's pretty much a percent priced in that they're going
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to raise rates. Well, that that hones in on a
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: very important point and That's not the issue of whether
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: they'll raise rates or not at this meeting, because I
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: think that's a fate to complete, but rather what the
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: future policy is going to look like. So those week
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: auctions again, they were you know, weak ish, not not
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you know, jarringly disappointing. But this happens at the same
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: time that next week we'll see the FED ramping up
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: the pace of balance sheet unwind h the e c
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: B will be ramping down the pace of asset purchases.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: And all of this has consequences for the financial markets.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: And so why do you want to lock in rates
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: now when you know these artificial buyers and artificial holders
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: of assets are becoming less aggressive in terms of their holdings.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: And I think that factors into, uh, the the appetite
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: at these auctions. On top of that, in terms of
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the FED meeting, again, the rate increases are largely expected,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: but the guidance for future actions is not entirely clear.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: So the Feds leaning towards a December move today, they'll
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: have the opportunity to either cast it in stone or
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: retain some optionality ahead of the December meeting. I think
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: it'd be wise to keep that optionality in place and
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: not drive market expectations higher. And also this notion of
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: where rates are going to be going over the course
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen and as we close in on neutral
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: is going to be very key to how financial markets respond.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: If I can just add one last footnote, the rhetoric
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: from the Fed has seemingly toughened as of late. Initially
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: there was some notion that the policy makers would move
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: cautiously as they get into neutral territory. That kind of
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: changed towards let's get to neutral and then reassess, And
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: even some policymakers like Governor Lyle Brainerd have this notion
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: that the short term neutral rate is higher than the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: long run neutral rate, and therefore the Fed may have
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: to push rates further above neutral uh in the course
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: of the medium term. I'm just digesting that footnote, Carl,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: that is a long footnote. Um, can you tell us
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: what role crude oil and crude oil prices at seventy
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: one dollars a barrel play in the federal reserves? Thinking
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: about interest rates, given that President Donald Trump spoke at
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the United Nations yesterday saying that OPEK is ripping people off, well,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: I think it plays in a very indirect fashion. And
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: and by that I mean the FED is not going
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: to respond to an increase in oil prices or a
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: transitory shock in the energy price in the energy space.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: But this does factor into the performance of emerging markets,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: for instance, which the FED. Uh, that's not you know,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: on the top five list of priorities. But the FED
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: is cognizant that their actions have consequences across the globe
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: and they want to avoid any type of destabilizing action. Uh.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: That's number one. And number two is through business investment.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: In prior episodes where oil prices have been high, we
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: see a lot of domestic investment into fracking and those
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: types of industries, and that actually supports business investment in
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: the economy. All right, thank you so much, Carl Goddon,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: in chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. I know you're
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be covering this in detail throughout the day. Thanks
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio