Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Investors Must Do This Before Friday (Nvidia Tesla Palantir SoFi) + Stock Market News 26 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Investors Must Do This Before Friday (Nvidia Tesla Palantir SoFi) + Stock Market News 26 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-market video.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand the NVIDIA dip, the Tesla blip, and where the huge opportunity lies in places like small caps, the SoFi, and why this short trading week thanks to the holidays in the US really are a monstrous opportunity in my humble opinion.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: So I want you to be the best informed investor out there.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I will hopefully do that for you in the next couple of minutes, so let's jump straight into it.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: I'm going to share my screen with you.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Here we are.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: What is this all about?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: This is the Russell, this is small caps, and small caps, particularly in presidential election years, do typically very, very well over the last like 50 years.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: So right now we are here and we expect to go up all the way to there.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Traditionally, that would be about another eight percentage points or something like that, which is pretty, pretty big right In the next month or so.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: So what does the chart tell you?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Well, if you look at the Russell, we had that lovely bounce off the kind of trend line here again.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: We've done that three times in a row now, and it did it also, and it's a little hard to see there, but we had one of these hammer candles that looked like this and basically that says to you yeah, we dropped quite a lot down, but then the dip bias came in in full force, pushed us all the way back up, and that's usually a very, very bullish sign.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: So the Russell small caps looking very, very sweet here as we are, and if you want to learn how to spot those breakouts yourself because I'm not going to be able to be there for you and go through every single stock there is ever and hopefully make a boatload of money I mean literally my portfolio has doubled in the last month, which is just bonkers just from spotting the right breakout.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: So come and learn the right breakouts.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not promising returns, obviously, but watch the masterclass.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: It's completely free.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Straight after this video, in the description, click on FelixFrenzelorg slash, get free, and hopefully that'll help you get free, like it has helping a lot of people already.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Now, why am I bullish?
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: A lot of reasons to be bullish Right now retail positions.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: That's you and me.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: How heavily are we invested right now?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: And we are invested at a really, really, really low level right now.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: So there's a huge room for retail money to pull back into the market and I believe that's going to happen more and more and more over the coming weeks and months.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Now, amazon is also an interesting one and I wanted to pull back into the market and I believe that's going to happen more and more and more over the coming weeks and months.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Now, amazon is also an interesting one and I wanted to pull up the chart here for you.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I obviously didn't do that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Why didn't I do that?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: One second there is Hertz.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: That's an interesting breakout actually.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: For any of you breakout hunters, that looks quite interesting.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Let's go look at Amazon.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Amazon brings in 24% of every dollar spent in the US on retail.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Out of every dollar, they get 24 cents.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Isn't that crazy?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: That's how big they've become.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Walmart, I think, is about 12 cents.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So together those guys are about a third of all retail spend and the chart right now is not looking like insanely bullish and I love that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It's just kind of like a bit of sideways action essentially, and that's a very, very good thing.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: The longer a stock goes sideways for the more money we typically make with it, the bigger the breakout.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We've done it pretty much since February.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: There's a little bit of a rally up here, but not that much going on there, so watch for the big juicy breakouts.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: There will be big juicy breakouts on Amazon, I'm sure of it.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Now, palantir was also getting hammered yesterday, really hammered by market makers.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So we started the day off beautifully up here at sort of $67.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And we were like, woohoo, and then the market opens here.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: That's the open.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's that, this is pre-market, okay, this is pre.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: And you see the massive volume we had down here.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: That's, these are the volume bars, lots of volume and lots of volume.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: The volume declines as we hit $65.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So the 65 here is our resistance line and you can look at that line up always in Trade Vision, felix Rensselaer, slash Trade Vision and then grab yourself a three weeks trial to it.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And then, as we really drop below the 65 here, what happens to volume?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: It's almost too small to see, right, because the market maker stopped selling.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So if you understand that data, how they're positioned and what therefore happens resistance line means they sell then well, you can make smarter decisions.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, it's hammered us a little bit here.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: On policy, am I worried about it?
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: No, no, I'm not.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's just.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: You know, it's just.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: No.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Stock goes up in a straight line.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It's gone up in almost a straight line, but it's just something to watch out for.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Maybe we get a couple of days of this hitting against the 65.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I think eventually we'll break through it.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Tesla everyone's freaking out about this.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Yesterday going, oh my God, gavin Newsom, the dear leader of California, has said that he's going to put out an EV subsidy because California has so much money it's bankrupt already.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: He's going to subsidize EV companies other than Tesla, and I think it's just because he hates Elon.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: It's kind of simple as that, I think, and of course, it makes no sense.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Whenever governments go, oh, we're going to subsidize the companies that are failing, what usually happens?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: They fail faster.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So it's complete nonsense, complete waste of your taxpayers' money.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: But Tesla dropping a little bit on that news there, but not a lot.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at, look at that rally.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: So is it gonna really affect tesla?
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: No, it's just a load of nonsense.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Um be interesting to see whether tesla can challenge that in court, by the way.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Um, it might just be, might just not be legal, because you're basically cherry picking like a rivian and saying we, we're going to give you money, but not your competitors.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Does that make a lot of sense?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Probably not, right.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So, anyway, it isn't a big deal for Tesla.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Tesla, as I was looking at pre-market justice, was actually looking quite decent.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Now there are lots of breakouts and I want to show you one.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: This is one I just saw.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I've been watching for the last couple of days.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: This is Deere co.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: They make Santa's sleighs and that sort of thing, agricultural instruments for self-driving agricultural tractors, that sort of stuff and they are really breaking out here on monstrous volume.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So if you sort of drew a trend line down here and saw that big breakout, you would go, oh, this is very, very interesting.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: And actually there is even a longer term trend line which would be something like that and we also smashed through that.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: So I love that stock anyway.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I own it regardless, but I think it could be an interesting opportunity and, again, learn how to spot those breakouts with confidence.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, you need to master risk management with it, because that's the most important thing where you make money.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: But watch the masterclass at phoenixrentalorg Get free.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Sofi is looking pretty sweet.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Another upgrade for SoFi drops a price target.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Do I care about those?
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Not really.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: No, I think analysts are tools not the sharpest tools either, but it does create a little bit more momentum.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It can create a little bit more momentum.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: But I just look at the chart.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: The chart tells me everything, so it looks very sweet.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Now, is this a good time to buy SoFi?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I think fundamentally it's still cheap.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the distance from the 50-day moving average line to where the stock is right now, that's a pretty big distance.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Right, we were at a much, much smaller distance previously.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So, generally speaking, I like to buy on zags rather than on zigs at the moment where it's very much zigging.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So I would probably.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there might there might not be a better, better entry point.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: There might not well not be.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I, I, I think there's a decent chance the stock could double, uh.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: But uh, you know, you've got to come to your own conclusion now.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is, uh, also had a bit of a dip, two parts there, amazon basically coming out saying we're making our own chips and not the ones in the fryer, but the microchips, and it's just all.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: The big tech companies are a little bit bothered and scared that they're sending all their money to NVIDIA and they'd like to have a little bit more optionality there.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So they're all working on their own chips and that'll come, but it'll take time and it won't be everything, and I still think NVIDIA is going to grow a lot.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And the second thing is and I've literally been talking about that for a year is money is flowing into software.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Because, if you think about it, where does the money go first?
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So you have NVIDIA at the top right.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: You then have your cloud computing companies next and then you have the companies that are actually using the cloud computing companies to sell you software.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: So initially the money went here, then the cloud companies were sending the money there.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Then everybody, all the software companies, have said, okay, we need more cloud computing power.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So now the money is going into cloud computing power and then everyone's starting to realize, yeah, but the real money is going to be made on software, because software has these beautiful 80, 90% gross margins and once companies use a software, they don't stop.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: They keep paying it every month and every month and every year, and therefore that's a beautiful thing.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: But if software, they don't stop.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: They keep paying it every month and every month and every year, and therefore that's a beautiful thing.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the stock chart here and again this is a screenshot from from trade vision I put on a bollinger band because I was feeling, uh, I was feeling excited today.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I don't do that very often, but sometimes that's a good thing to do.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: So this yellow thing there is a bollinger band.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Now if you think that Bollinger is a brand of champagne, that's completely fine, but it is also a band.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: And where are we right now?
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: We're at the very bottom end of that.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: You see, the last time we were at the bottom end there in September, we did it here and obviously, this whole trend down we've traditionally broken out from that.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So it could be in a good entry point.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I think NVIDIA is going to deliver the goods, but yeah, you have to be a bit of a contrarian to go against momentum.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: At the moment, momentum is pulling us down a little bit, but yeah, it could well be a good entry point for people really, really late on the NVIDIA party.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Now it's a really short week because there is a holiday coming, if you haven't realized.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: And what does?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Well, it means two things.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: So we at the moment, all of november, we have the strongest buybacks ever, so every single day there's money, lots of money, buying stocks back.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: These are big tech companies and the big companies buying their own stocks.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: That's still happening.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: At the same time, everyone is on holiday, or vacation, as you might call it.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So you know, every respectable banker is in the bahamas or you know somewhere like that I couldn't be, can't be seen dead in new york at the moment.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: It means you haven't, haven't, haven't made it, so they're there somewhere.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Um, you know, on, on, on a trip, and therefore there is literally less volume, the less people trading this week.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Less, but the buybacks are still there.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: It actually gives us the potential to see a really nice pre-holiday rally here, because all you need is everyone else to be asleep.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: The buybacks are still happening and therefore this could actually be a very, very sweet week.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Now, yes, we are getting FOMC minutes out.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think they'll be hugely surprising.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: There is also inflation data coming out pce inflation, which is somewhat relevant, but unless those things really shock, I think the market's a bit bored of inflation right now.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: We're much more interested in what trump is doing and, um, less regulation, less taxes and, yes, tariffs, um, but, uh, we know that they're coming and I think everyone's still saying no, no, that'd be temporary.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think there will be.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I think there'll be pretty permanent, to be honest with you, because there'll be a very nice revenue stream, and once the government has a revenue stream, they loathe to give it back.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see what happens on that one.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: But yeah, he has announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: And why that?
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Well, if you don't, then the world trade will just sell everything to Mexico and the Mexicans will repackage it and send it back to the US, and the same story up north.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So you actually have to put tariffs on the sort of countries that would be the middlemen, otherwise, otherwise the whole thing doesn't really work.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So it'd be interesting to see how that pans out.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Some people are thinking that's going to be incredibly inflationary.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Short term, yes.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Long term, it might not be.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: It might not be Because more and more and more of those goods should be made in the US and with automation and robotics and AI, it should be possible to make them at the same cost than if you were to make them in a third or second world country.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: So I think it could be the boom for US industry and therefore everybody who supplies US industry and energy and services and software and everything else.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So I think very good times are coming.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I'm very, very bullish on the market, going into the end of year and going into 2025 and beyond.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: And what are we doing?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Well, we're staying with our winners.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: At the moment, they're winning so beautifully, always looking for new winners, and you can always do that by picking, finding the next breakouts, and it's very easy.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: All you got to do is watch the masterclass FelixR next breakouts and it's very easy.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: All you got to do is watch the masterclass felixfrenzorg slash, get free and then start playing with that, hopefully in a paper trading account, and really, really manage the risk management.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Obviously, that's where you make the real money.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: So if you got some value out of this video, share it with a golden retriever, or even a friend, if you have one, and I wish you a beautiful, successful day ahead.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Enjoy the short week and I hope to see you live tomorrow.