Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / David Smith: The Guardian's Washington Bureau Chief on the war in the Middle East, US-Iran peace deal

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David Smith: The Guardian's Washington Bureau Chief on the war in the Middle East, US-Iran peace deal · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: So here we are. The world is holding their breath.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: It seems that the United States and Iran have agreed
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: to a deal to, if not in the war, at
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: least put it on hold for a while. Pakistan says
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this deal will be signed on Friday in Switzerland. The
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: President of the United States says ships are starting to
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: move again through the stratus of news. The US markets
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: opened sharply higher after the news. Oil prices have fallen.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: David Smith is the Washington bureau chief for The Guardian
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: and joins me, Now, hello, David, So hello here. Can
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: we celebrate yet or you know, there's no real resolution.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: It's relief, not resolution.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, and I think it's hard to celebrate
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: after such a rough war with so many civilian casualties.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Should not forget them. And frankly, a war that's left
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: the Iranian population worse off now with a more hardline
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: regime and an economic crisis. And also, many critics would
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: argue has dealt a real blow to US power and
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: prestige and shown the limits of that power. Certainly, there
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: seems a glimmer of hope that at least the fighting
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: will stop and the state of Hormos will reopen. Still
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: has to be demned that the oil markets have responded accordingly,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: and you know, look that will get some sort of
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: We've already got some kind of memo signed and more
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: to come.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Well, we're just waking up in New Zealand, you've been
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: awake all all day. Do we know anything more about
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: this deal other than there is a deal that it's
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: going to be signed.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: The outline so far seems to be, you know, top
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: priority is reopened the Strait of Hormuz, that crucial waterway,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: so that oil can get flowing again. I think still
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: an unanswered question about is Iran going to try and
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: levy a toll on shipping through there, and a lot
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: of skepticism about whether it can actually ever return to
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: what it used to be. But the great and answered
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: question that we have not seen detail on is Iran's
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: nuclear program. Let's remember that was really the central point.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump said Iran must not have a nuclear weapon.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: And with the signing of this memo, we just really
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: kicked down the road for sixty days of negotiations and
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: still a lot of ambiguity there about what will actually
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: be achieved.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Yes, and the prison of the United States wants a
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: better outcome regarding Nulia then was negotiated by Obama before.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Is it looking likely or not?
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Probably not, I think partly because the Iranian regime does
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: feel emboldened. For them, merely hanging on and surviving was
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: victory and they achieved that. And we now have something
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: more like a military junter that is younger and more
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: radicalized and feels emboldened that it managed to stand up
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: to the goliath Americans. So they're actually less willing to
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: make concessions on the nuclear issue. They may allow some
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: enriched uranium to be taken, but probably not all of it.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Yes, now Israel, how are they feeling right now? What
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: are they doing?
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I think this is a major blow to Israel. They
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: of course were involved right to the beginning. This was
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: a joint Israeli US operation when this war began. But
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I think over recent months you've seen Israeli goals increasingly
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: diverge from US goals. What Benjamin Nessina, who the Israeli
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: Prime Minister, really wanted was regime change in Iran, whereas
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: the US wanted to cut its losses due to domestic
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: political pressure. And in recent days apparently Nessina, who has
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: been kept in the dark about negotiations over this memo,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: and you know, we've had Trump insulting him a few times,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: describing him as crazy. It sort of fled up again yesterday.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Trump was furious that Israel was continuing to attack Lebanon.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Apparently this deal includes a ceasefire in Lebanon, but does
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: not provide for a withdrawal of Israeli troops them areas
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: they occupy. We'll see how Iran response to that, but
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I think the whole thing has been a real setback
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: for Nessan Yahoo.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: David Smith, I thank you so much. David is the
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Washington bureau chief for The Guardian. For more from Early
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live to news Talks.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: It'd be from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio.