Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Grains: 2025 Crop Tour Day 4

Transcript

Grains: 2025 Crop Tour Day 4 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the 2025 Professional Egg Marketing Crop Tour brought to you by Green Key Egg.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: Have you ever wanted more out of your crop?
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Green Key Egg could be the solution you've been looking for.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_01: They are a plant nutrition company dedicated to delivering balanced, season-long nutritional solutions for crops.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: They focus on enhancing crop health, improving efficiency, maintaining consistency, and increasing profitability.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Reach out to Noah at 712-441-5446.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: This is the fourth day of our crop tour, and probably the biggest.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: We are going to release the Indiana and Illinois final yields tonight.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: And uh after trending hot on Twitter all day long after some of our Illinois posts, uh this is gonna be a very exciting post tonight, anyways, from this podcast.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: So with me I got Jayden as always.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: How about yourself?
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: Not too bad.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, let's start off.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: We started in Lafayette, Indiana, and then worked our way west through kind of north central Illinois, got into uh Cedar Rapids to end the night here.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: So pretty much got to talk about the Indiana, northern part of the belt, and then Illinois as well, and just barely getting back into Iowa on the east side.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: But in general, let's start with Indiana and then we'll wrap up with Illinois.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: So first off, what did you give Indiana for a yield this year?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: What did we have for Indiana last year out of the USDA, Jaden?
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: So this year we're we're pegging Indiana at about a 195 yield.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: And last year we had them at at a 210.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: And um I think majority of the reason is um a lot of what I I've been hearing from you know the locals around there, they they said they kind of got a cap put on their yield potential from a just kind of a rougher start in the in the growing season.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of our um samples we pulled, and we like to go to the same field every year, and a lot of the samples were just maybe just as good, if not worse, um, across Indiana.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: But very comparable for Indiana.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't that far off in either direction.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: You could make cases both ways pretty much out of it.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing crazy though, where uh you were a long ways away on the yield, anyways.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: Stonex, for example, had what on Indiana?
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh they had them at 201, Mike.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: 201.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: So a little bit less, but nothing incredibly crazy, anyways.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um let's work our way over to Illinois.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: This was the one that was really trending hot today on Twitter that we wanted to talk about.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: And what did you have as a broad takeaway or initial takeaway from Illinois yield samples and from the state?
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, I'll I'll break up Illinois like this.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um so as we traveled through the eastern part of the state and the southern part of the state, basically every sample we pulled was at least 10 bushels worse than last year.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: And as we finished up on the western part of the state, I mean they they were very comparable to last year, if not better.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: So the one out of one, maybe two stops out of the rest of the uh the state, maybe a comparable to last year, maybe a little bit better in the western side of India, Illinois, they thought, but the rest of the samples came back a little bit disappointing.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: Ten off maybe last year's samples.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: And it this was interesting because if you look at like satellite views of the crop, uh, you know, it looks fantastic.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh some would argue some of the best ever.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: East Central Illinois, probably never healthier, big broad green leafed corn crop, but you probably took some away because of the heat.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I I would say that it sure seems like in the field, looking at the samples, just not being objective at all with what we thought going into the crop, it's it's probably not as good as 2024 in Illinois.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: And that's just what we found.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: Doesn't mean that's gonna be right by any means, doesn't mean the crop is gonna finish like this, because as you look at this crop, sure, it could be 10 worse than last year at this point.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: However, when I go back to last year, we dried up considerably from this point on through the rest of the season.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: And this year we have a lot more moisture that's been consistently put into this corn crop in a better position, and it doesn't look like we're probably gonna finish out quite as hot or dry as what we did last year.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the the field that we toured in western Illinois, for example, they started out combining uh, you know, when it was in the 20s, and uh by the time they finished their harvest, they were into the 12% type moisture.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: So I mean the the crop dried down immensely through uh their finished crop, anyways.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: So this year probably not a similar scenario from that standpoint.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: So we're really gonna learn how much that dryness probably took out of this crop last year.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Jaden, what was our yield estimate this year for the Illinois corn crop compared to last year?
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we put them at a 207 this year, Mike, and last year we had them at a 220, and they finished at a 217 last year, which was a record.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: So about 10 off of the crop.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe it finishes a little bit better than 10 bushels.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we'll just have to see.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: One, how much the heat took away off this crop here, and then two, also uh, how much of a bump do we get because of probably a better finish to this Illinois corn crop?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: Nonetheless, that's not crazy different because Stonex had what kind of number out of uh their estimate this year.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they had them at 216, so one below last year.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: One below last year.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we're about 10 off of that or so.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll narrow that gap up a little bit by the end.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh not a crazy difference, anyways.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: But what we're noticing is in the eastern corn belt, specifically to some some of these higher estimates like 188, 187 yields, you're gonna need more out of this eastern corn crop than what we've been finding to achieve those type of numbers, Jaden.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be interesting to see what we come up with for Illinois or for Iowa and our final stops there.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then on Friday, we're gonna chat with Lucas Peters, and he's gonna give us what they saw on the north end of our crop tour for Minnesota, South Dakota, and then North Dakota as well.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Any other final thoughts, Jaden?
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: No, Mike, I just I just think people should keep in mind that yeah, um August is pretty important for corn, as we saw last year.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: If you if you don't get that rain in August and get that good finish, it can affect your yields.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it was a really fun Eastern Corn Belt tour here this year.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll have a podcast out tomorrow night as well for Iowa, and then we'll have one out on Friday wrapping up the Northern tour, uh, which would include our finding as well.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time today, Jaden.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: If you have any thoughts, any samples you want to send in to us, please go on our website, send it in, go on Twitter and comment on those as well.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you everyone for listening.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: This podcast was also brought to you by Pro Ag Power, the all-in-one grain marketing tool tied directly to your brokerage account.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Track cash, futures, options all in one place, compare your cost of production with others, and use what if tools on our website to build a marketing plan.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: Please get in touch with your ProAg broker today to connect your trading account to your Pro Ag Power account and really be on the technically advanced side of risk management for your grain operation.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_01: And don't forget about our webinar coming up on Monday.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Please look on Twitter and find the link to register for our event on August 11th at 8 a.m.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time.