Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Markets, Oil, And Metals (Podcast)

Transcript

Markets, Oil, And Metals (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's get
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: to these markets here. I mean a lot of folks.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Tell me, Matt, if you want to try to call
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the bottom, look for capitulation. That means when everybody just
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: kind of throws it in town. I'm looking at it.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: You know, the volume today, the dal Jones above normal,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: SP above normal. I don't know. That's kind of feels
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: like a lot of people are just kind of thrown
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: into town. But let's talk to our professional here, Mike
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: vogals On, Chief Investment Officer Managing director at cap Trust. Uh, Mike,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: are we at or near the bottom? If we are,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: what data points do you look at to give you
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: some confidence about that call? Yeah, we've been wrestling with
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: that question a lot, guys. I mean, it's it's a
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: you know, clearly, what we're seeing is just continued obviously
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: de risking in the in the I think particularly the
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: hedge fund community. Um. You know that the hedge fund
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: returns have been all over the place this year, and
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: along short guys are are really struggling. A couple of
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: a couple of winners, but most of them are really
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: in trouble. And so I think I'm trying to de
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: risk sort of at any price. And you see that
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: in some of the activity today, Um, that that's certainly
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: a phase that the market has to go through. Um.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You know, I think one of the things that's interesting
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: is this this uh sort of the sort of the
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: orderliness with which we've seen this this meltdown. Now right,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: we're down fifteen percent or something like that from the
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: peak on December or January three in the SMP. And
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: you know, it's not been crazy. We haven't hit anywhere
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: near forty on the VIX. We're even today we're a
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: three four. Um, you know, it's it's it's we kind
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: of looked for it's. You could look at it in
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the numbers. But there's also a visceral reaction of just
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: like get me out at any price, right, And I
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: think you're starting to see that at some of the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: most beaten down names, some of the really speculative innovation
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: kind of names that that that have really you know,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: they're down already. UM, So there's probably pockets of it,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: but you know, I don't I don't think overall there's
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: a there's a ton of fear here. I'm worried that
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: as interest rates continue to climb, as you pointed out,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: you know, we're over three ten, we're up three fifteen.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: This war hand and tame year, My goodness, I don't
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know where it stops. The Feds have the
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: fence has really even haven't even started yet. Yeah, but
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I wonder when that's going to get priced in though
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: they haven't even started yet, but we already expect you know,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: half back to back, half basis point cuts. Some people
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: were saying seventy five and seventy five as well. Um,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: is there a point when that gets priced in and
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: you know, all of the concerns you had about inflation
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: and fighting inflation, um, and the economy slowing down are
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: all priced in and we can get out. I think
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I think you've got to look for a direction, right,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: You've got to look for the directional change and and
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: right now inflation has only been getting worse. Um And
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: and at some stage we need to see a consistent
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: pattern of you know, lower employment cost index or we
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: are slower slower growth, same thing with inflation. We need
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: to see uh COVID lockdowns in China beginning to ease,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: so we have some sense that the that the that
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: the you know, the logistics supply problems are are beginning
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: to free up. You know this. Right now, it seems
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: like everything is continuing to go in the wrong direction.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And until we get some fundamental change at the margins,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: it's just hard to see why anybody would want to
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: step in front of it because there's no there's no
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: way to to know um. You know. Look, and every
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: time we talk about something like this, it really comes
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: down to your time frame. And if if your time
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: frame is relatively short, um, I think you're going to
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: stay out of the way of this thing. I think
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: if you're a long term investor and you have some
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: dry powder, I think you have to begin to think
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: about nibbling at the at the margins here. Just because
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: there are some things that are pretty inexpensive. It's pretty easy,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: for example, to buy a large cap value portfolio with
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the price to earnings ratio pretty close to single digits now,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: maybe ten or eleven twelve times earnings UM with a
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: pretty healthy dividend. Okay, that's pretty interesting right over the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: next five or ten years. UM. So, you know, I
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: think the pockets of a sort of long term allocation
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: that can happen if you're if you're in the right
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: spot and you're sort of smart enough to know that
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: it's sort enought to see some of this coming, um
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: and so, but you know, I just don't think we're
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: there yet on a on a momentum kind of basis.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: There's no way yet. Hey, Mike, thanks so much for
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: joining us here. Always appreciate getting your thoughts from here
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: on in these markets. Mike phobos On. He's a chief
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: investment officer and managing director at Cap Trust. All Right, Matt,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I filled up the beamer this weekend four one per gallon.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I wanted to blame somebody, so I just obviously just
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: looked at OPEC because I'm looking at the oil here,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Brent crude on eight dollars a barrel. But I forgot
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: about the whole refining process and taking that crude oil
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: into gas or dies or whatever else we need to consume.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: There's a whole refinery process out there, and don't you
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: know haveavier Blast Calumnus for Bloomberg Opinion comes out with
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: a fantastic column today looking at that part of the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: energy stream. The mark of the refinery business. How your
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: those guys are making a lot of money right now?
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Aren't they making quarter lot of money right now? Record
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: margins for American refiners currently about fifty dollars per barrel
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: of refining margin. This is a bit of a back
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: of the envelope calculation. Each refinery is different, so you
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: cannot really have like a benchmark for the whole industry,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: but we have a of the envelope calculation that in
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: the industry we called the three to one refinery margin,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: and that is the record high up. In simple terms,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: a refinery usually makes something between ten and twenty dollars,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: but barrely, they're making about fifty five right now, so
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: it's as good as it gets for them. And uh,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: you know, people pay attention to normal gas every you know,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: consumer focused cable TV news channel. Uh, we're looking at
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Paul and I have a huge bank of screens here.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: They're all focused on the price at the pump and
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: talking about regular unleaded, but diesel is almost seven dollars
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: a barrel where I live. What is going on with that? Well,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: that is the market that is the tightest of all
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: of them. There is very little diesel going around. And
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: this is a this is something that really mattered. You're right,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: most of consumers, myself included, we we we really look
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: at cattle in prices because that's what we we we
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: we need for our car. But the global economy, the
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: American economy, really run on diesel. That is the fuel
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: for tracks, that is the fuel for heavy machinery things
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: about all of those machines and diggers on construction sites,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and it's also the fuel for for farming. And supplies
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: are well above pre pandemic levels because in far all
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of us, myself included, are buying all these stuff online
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: and that all needs to be transported in tracks and
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: bands and their fuel on on diesel. The supply has
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: not really come back, and lots of refineries with trouble
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: coming back from from pandemic and the combination of both
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: has sent inventories to very low levels, and particularly the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: East Coast, the Eastern seaboard of the United States, lowest
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: inventories in thirty two years for diesel, and that's why
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: you see retail prices going to record levels. And UH
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: diesel prices have never been so high compared to gasolin
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: prices in the United States. And and just ongoing comfort
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: and scoll from one of the independent American refinance hs
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Sinclair where the CFO used to me gave the quote
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: of the day or the month of what's going on
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: on the on the diesel market, and morgenally all the
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: kind of retail fuel market in the US. He said,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: pre pandemic demand and post pandemic supply. That's that's the problem.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Demand is back to what it was before the pandemic,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: but the supply has not come back. One of the
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: other things that we've noticed, Javier, just on an anecdotal level,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: is it's harder and harder to get cheap tickets on
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: an airline. Okay, in Europe, um, it's a different story,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: but here a lot of people are getting priced out
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: of the market to fly, even in luggage class. Jet
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Fuel is another one of those markets that's super tight, right, Yeah,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: jet fuel is also very tight. I think that generally
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: what has happened was that the industry has been a
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: bit surprised by the return of trouble by by air,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: not only in the US but also in Europe. Refinance,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: we're not making enough jet fuel now. The prices are there,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: so get fuel is selling in New York hardword that
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the benchmark for the US East coat at the equivalent
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: to about two and fifty dollars per barrel, so very
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: very high prices that the highest ever. And refiners are
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: something that we are trying to make more get fuel.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: But if they make more get fuel at the expense
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: of making maybe a bit less decent or maybe a
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: less a bit of less catoline, we really are getting
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: quite a lot of strong demand for all of them.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: And and and you are right, consumers are starting to
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: get price out on airth travel just because it's getting expensive.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: But I was in America only ten days ago UM
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: flying into New York. Both my flying and my flyout
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: were completely booked UM every class, first class, business, Premium, Economy,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: and Economy. All of the seats were occupied. And that
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: is kind of a sense of how Weston the demand is.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: After two years of not traveling around, people are still
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: putting with high prices because they want to They want
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: to see relatives, they want to see colleagues, they want
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: to see business contacts. Have your How hard or difficult
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: is it for refineries to increase capacity? They have to restart,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: refineries have to build new ones. How does that look
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: on the spade. It's very difficult because once you you
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: shut down a refinery, that's not going to come back.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: And the trend in Europe and the United States over
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the last few years have been of reducing refining capacity
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: because of um well, we thought that peak demand was coming,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: the energy transitions, some of the refineries were actually now
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: surrounded by big cities or operating with new environmental regulations
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: was getting more difficult. And then pandemic hit and that
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: two more charge the trend. So what we saw is,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: excluding the Middle East, on China, we saw the biggest
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: amount of refining capacity laws in thirty years over the
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: last year and a half two years. Because of the pandemic.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Those refineries are not going to come back. And China
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: has a specifying capacity, but they really control a lot
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: of what they are exporting, so you cannot count on them.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So we unfortunately seem that we have hit the refinery wall,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna we're gonna have to deal with that
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: for for for a time, and the only solution is
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to reduce our slow down the demand for fuel, and
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: that only comes be are two things that they are
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: closely related. Demanded strokes will be a very high prices.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So just some American Son people just decide that they
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: cannot drive because it's very expensive for outright recession and unfortunately,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: probably we're gonna hit both of them by the end
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: of the year. By the way, I heard Tom talking
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: to Will Kennedy the other day on Bloomberg Radio and
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: asked him, you know where would Brent be right now
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: in price terms if it weren't for the lockdowns in China,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: if it weren't for COVID zero, And he said, maybe
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: more like or even closer to the high. What do
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you think. I think that we will be higher. I
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: think that we will be a hundred and fifty. It
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: was not because of China shut down. I mean, China
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: is all what is stopping this market to really rallying
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: on a moneyful way. Um, if China will not shut down,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: we will be higher than that. Uh. Really in some ways,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: as Son speaking in private son government officials both in
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the US and Europe say, and also oil traders, the
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: refusal of China to really go with the fives and
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the moderna vaccine. It's all what is preventing this market
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: to a hundred and all? Right? Have you ever last
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion got a great, great calm today
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: talking at the refining aspect of the supply chain within
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: global energy. You know, for a lot of folks, medals
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: are a say haven or seen as a safe haven
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: for investors in uncertain times. I wonder if that's still
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the case given all the uncertainty we have out there,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: whether it's economic, federal reserve, UH, interest rate moves, geopolitical issues.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: It's checking with one Matthew Miller, one of many medals
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: and mining analyst at cfr A Research. Matt, can people
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: kind of hide out a little bit in metals here? Yeah?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I mean it is a great question because we've seen
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: we've seen precious medals have a safe haven bid earlier
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: in the year, but they have they have since sold off,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and I think that you know, people are preferring the dollar,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the US dollar as a safe haven of choice right
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: now and you know, I think with the strength of dollar,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: we have seen both precious metals and industrial metals sell off,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: and you know, I think that risk off trade is
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: really um, you know, a combination of three major factors.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: But you know it fears about inflation and dead number
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: one in Russia's war against Ukraine and how that impacting
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the supply side of the equation for industrial medals in particular,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: And then you have China's COVID lockdown, and I think
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: that you know, with inflation remaining elevated, we here at
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: c fr A do think the industrial medals in particular,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: it is a good place to you know, hedge inflation,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: even though we have seen that weakness recently, we do
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: think it's a great place to be currently in terms
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: of treasuries. Uh, this morning we're looking at three eighteen.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I think, let me check to get the exact here
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: three spot Well we've come down substantially three spot zero
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: one eight and nonetheless it's a much better return than gold.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Is that a competitor? Yeah, I I absolutely think it is.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think gold tends to do well when
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: real rates are declining, and we we threw in the
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: talent gold we were bullish for a number of years
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: leading up to the end of one, and you know,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: we were too early on that knowing what's happened this year.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: But um, we do think old is gonna struggle to
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: reach new highs in this cycle because you you do
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: see um, you know, you do see real rates starting
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: to creep back up. And so we think that as
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the FED is tightening and real rates start to you know,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: they're now above UM, they're now positive again, and we
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: think that gold's gold and precious metals are gonna really
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: struggle in this environment. And we do think that that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: is maybe the number one thing over the short intermediate
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: term that drives gold prices, that negative correlation with real yields.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So we do think that that's a major headwind for gold. Hey, Matt,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the nickel a thirty five percent year
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: to date. What was slash is the nickel call that
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I so obviously missed well, I mean, nicol is an
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: interesting one because um, the spike and nickel really was
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: driven by a major um, a major short squeeze, and
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: so um, when you look at nickel, it is one
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: of the medals that is at risk on the supply side.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: From Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia produces around seven percent
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: of the of the global UH supply of nickel, and
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: it was already pretty um you know, the the inventory
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: levels were already pretty tight. So it was already a
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: structurally tight market. And what we saw with um uh
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: you know, Russia invading invading Ukraine, you did see a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: major um, a major short seller in China that was
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: was literally the big short that that kind of drove
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: what's happened with nickel and causing the CME to actually um,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you know, causing the LMY excuse me to actually um
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: halt the exchange a number of times in the last
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: couple of months. And so we think that you know,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: there that market is going to be structurally tight, along
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: with aluminum and palladium. Um, there's a number of markets
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: that rely pretty heavily on that region for for global supply.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: By the way, I'm sure the CMME is very happy
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: that that was the l M E and and on them.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Do you think that's done more than just reputational damage
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: to the LEMY, I mean other people who are saying,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: you know what, I'm not trading there anymore. Yeah, Well,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: I do think that they will regain sort of that trust.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it does hurt in the short term because
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: you know, there are a number of trades that were
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: canceled that the days that these were um you know,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: the days that the halt happened, and and you never
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: really want that to happen, and you don't you never
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: want to see that type of volatility. But the reality
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: is there there are a number of metals markets that
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: aren't very liquid that are you know, they will see
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: this sort of volatility, and so you know, the exchanges,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: you know, they do want to, you know, kind of
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: do do their part to kind of correct the market
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: when you do have a major, um, a major trader
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: out there where this was this was a lot of speculation,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: but it was also somebody that was going to be
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: needing to close those short positions. So um yeah, I
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: mean it's there's no easy solutions for them, But I
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: do think that um, you know, they're gonna regain trust.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's a long term issue in my opinion.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: All Right, Matthew Miller, thank you so much for joining us.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Matthew Miller Metals and Mining Analysis c f R, a
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: research well in person investor conferences are back. In fact,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence is hosting its first annual Thematic Investing Conference
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: UH May ten and eleven at Bloomberg's Global HQ in
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: New York City. The inaugural in person event will focus
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: on these key themes plant based foods, digital healthcare, digital commerce,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: digital payments, and cryptocurrency. So all the big topics that
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: are front and center. Let's get a little bit of
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: a preview. Eric Baltunist, Uh, he covers E t F
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence, and Eric, I know you're deeply involved
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: in this conference, so you know, what are Bloomberg clients
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: that are attending here? What are they going to see? Um,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: they're gonna see basically a different themes emerging themes. Why
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: themes matter? You have throw stand, A lot of the
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: investing universe used to be divided or is divided into sectors,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: the gift sectors. But the the world is changing so
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: quickly theme ets I think capture that changed a little
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: quicker than the sectors. Do you know some of these
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: stocks are in multiple sectors at least in their business lines,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: So more and more of the money is going towards
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: thematic ETFs and that's why I'm involved because e t
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: f s are tend to be sort of at the
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: forefront of finding new themes because if you find a
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: new theme and it starts to go up a lot,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: you can get some cash. So if you look at
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: the sectors, uh if thematic ETFs have the second most
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: assets after tech, So we all know tech rules the sectors,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: but themes are number two now above healthcare. So that's
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: how this is. These used to be kind of a
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: laughing stock like a video game. Et F would come
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: out everyday the trash and laugh at it. Now it's
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: big business. This stuff is the future of active in
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: my opinion, and it's smart of b I to get
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: on board. So a lot, a lot a lot of
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: times Matt and I away ask a guess, you know,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: what sectors are you looking at? But maybe a better question,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: or certainly a different question be what themes are you
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: guys focusing on? Yes, so well they're going to focus
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: on everything. You know you talked about blockchain, cryptocurrency, plant
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: based themes, the digit digitization of everything is a big one.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Some that we're looking at this year that are interesting
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: are natural resources, right themes time Sometimes people think theme
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: are themes are just growth stocks sort of you know, repackaged,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: but there's natural resources which hold oil mining stocks. You've
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: also got infrastructure is a theme, and with the infrastructure
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: spending that could be big the metaverse, even though that's
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: been hit hard, that is a theme people are looking at.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: So those are some of the ones that we're looking
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: at on my panel. We also have ARC. We don't
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: have Kathy, We have Brett Witten and ARC. To me,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: I think put themes on the map all of Kathy's
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: funds or theme ETFs. But the main fund isn't a theme, right,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: It kind of is disruptive innovation. We consider innovation a theme,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: and Kathy kind of kicked off a whole category because
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: Kathy goes across sectors to just find innovative and disruptive companies.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: So in a way, that's how we define themes. And
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: so it's interesting because I was I was thinking first
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: about factors, right, because that became huge, especially in the
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: hedge fund world five six, seven years ago. Right, And
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Paul mentioned sectors. Now those are two different things, right.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: A factor and a sector are different ways of categorizing
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: investment opportunities. I guess companies or what have you? Um,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: themes can be kind of either one. Yeah, no, you're
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: what you're hitting on is so important and interesting and
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: what everybody in asset management should understand. Themes are going
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: to steal your thunder. They steal from the sectors, which
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: are sort of born in this legacy. There's only eleven
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: of them, and they're sort of stale, and they steal
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: from factors because growth momentum value. Some of these to
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: a normal person or an advisor with younger clients, they
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: just don't resonate. Whereas some of these themes have a
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: narrative attached to them. You can identify them. They get
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: your imagination going. And a lot of them also will
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: hold stocks that aren't in the broad indexes, so they
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: compliment nicely. So I agree with you, Matt, you're kind
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: of stealing the thunder from both the factor world and
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: the sector world. By the way, Um, Paul, did you
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: know that Eric and I have a television show every
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Monday at one pm? Do you really? Yes? So that
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: today's Monday and today's Monday, we're almost there focused on
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: E T F s and what have we got on
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: the program today? Today? We have Dimensional, which is a
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: major factor issue where I'm gonna actually hopefully ask dimensional
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: what do you think about themes coming in and trying
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: to steal some of your business? You know what, I'll
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: make sure And then the drill down. We drill down
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: into one ticker every week is net Z and this
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: is the climate Transition stocks. So these are stocks like
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: auto companies and chemical companies and even oil companies that
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: uh engine number one fields are driving the transition. But
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: it's a thirty stocks and again it's a thematic sort
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: of E s G climate play E T F UM
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: And that's what we're gonna drill down. So themes will
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: be part of the show. They're part of most shows actually, UM,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: and I'm looking forward to it. What are we seeing
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: in terms of flows because we've had but I think
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: five weeks of losses on the sm P, right, that's
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the worst in over a decade in terms of losing streaks. Um.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: We've even seen a big losing streak for bitcoin. I
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: think six weeks in a row of losses on bitcoin,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the worst since like two thousand fourteen, which was back
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: when no one cared about it except for me. Um,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: What are we seeing in terms of flows when I
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: pull up E T F go What am I looking at?
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: By the way, I remember I was on a segment
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: one time with you on bitcoin. Still kick myself for
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: not just buying a little I'm like, what was I thinking? You?
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: And anyway, So look, generally speaking, the flows are still
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: buying H y G, the cues, they are getting bids,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: they've taken in money, the triple leverage cues. I think
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: that by the dip crowd is still looking for opportunities.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: That said, if you look across the flows in general,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: what you tend to find is like investors are in
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: a dark room searching for a door out, because there's
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: not really a rhyme or reason. You'll see gold within
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: flows one week out the next, and then financials in
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: flows out. So I can tell people just are a
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: little lost. Whereas most year there's a general sort of slow,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: hurd ish move towards one or two things, this year
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: is just all over the place, like someone trying to
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: find something. Eric good stuff. As always, Eric Baltunas making
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: the trek into New York for the Bloomberg and Arrector
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Broker studio. He's a senior et f Annals for Bloomberg
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Intelligence and also a proud graduate of the State University
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: of New Jersey, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Thanks for listening
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Pet On Ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.