Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 7/27/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Here’s What To Watch As Cattle Volatility Picks Up

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 7/27/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Here’s What To Watch As Cattle Volatility Picks Up · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Gill, Colorado, once again this week.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Man, it has been a scorcher here and across the country this past weekend.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We had a lot of news come out at the end of last week about the cattle market.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the livestock market and where it closed last week, man, an update across the board on Friday.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle closed at 227, about even up a dollar and sixty-eight cents.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were at 343.33 cents, up a buck and a half.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs for two sessions in a row in the front month of August went up exactly 70 cents again, this time closing at 102.8 and 85 cents.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Big, big rally we've seen on the hog side of things.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: And man, we'll get to more live cattle discussion here in a bit, but I'd like to pop on the weather just real quick.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: Widespread 100 degree highs and record temperatures are already scored this past weekend across the country.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: This includes Imperial, North Platte, Bismarck, Garden City, and others saw record heat.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't remember, earlier last week we talked about Grand Island setting record lows, and now, yeah, this past weekend, record highs.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: That is really hard on crops, livestock, people, your car.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: I don't care what it is, that's pretty dang extreme.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: That weather pattern is going to shift from the Great Plains all the way down to the mid-south and the southern plains.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the grain market slide that I have for you today is directly correlated to fertilizer.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Zachary Davis puts out our morning newsletter and does a great job with it.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: And he kind of tracks fertilizers for us.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: The last time he popped this on, the headline was Well, DAP, that purple line up top there, it's the one that needs to fall.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: And it just hasn't yet.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's because of the straight or whore moves and the energy markets staying elevated.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's a global supply chain issue.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever it is, as we prepare for the 2027 crop, make sure and try to track those prices of fertilizers.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the border is open.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: We've been talking about it for a while.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Eventually it will open again, and we're going to see those Mexican and branded cattle come across the Rio Grande, and in the next 30 days, they're going to happen.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, or roughly the same time that this came out, uh July 1 on feed report ran 102.2% of last year, the fourth largest on record, as both placements and marketings ran below normal, keeping that historic large front-end supply that Mr.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands and I have been talking about.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: We were actually fairly spot on with what we were talking about on the Fat Tuesday show and what happened in the actual market.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: USDA also announced that they're going to open the border here in the next 30 days.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: What I'm telling people is yes, this will have an effect on the market.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Expect volatility today.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: However, there's not going to be 200 cattle pots lined up at the border ready to ship across right when that border opens.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Those cattle that haven't been coming into the U.S.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: that normally would haven't just been running free on pastures in Mexico for the past couple years.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: They have been fed, they have been finished, and they have been slaughtered over in Mexico at a higher rate than they were beforehand.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: They've created a market and an industry over there.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now I'm not saying that we're not going to see some scattered lots of mixed cattle come across the southern border.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: Well just remember that.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: There is a cattle feeding industry still in Mexico.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: On the chart of the day, haven't had a chart of the day in a while, and I thought it was just appropriate to pop on a cattle chart.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Look at this.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: If you can't see the correlation there, you might need a new set of glasses.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Mr.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands put this in our uh livestock group chat.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: I really liked it.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: The red dots there are cash prices.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: The black line is the nearby futures.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: If you can't see the cash follows futures there, or futures follows cash, however you want to say it, there is a tight correlation.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and pay attention to your local sale bar and what you're hearing for bids out in cattle country, because there is a tight correlation there.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: Well, on the economic calendar for today, the durable and cap goods already is about to come out here at 7.30 a.m., probably about the time this goes public.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Export inspections come out at 10 a.m.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: And the crop progress report is after the close at 3 p.m.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's all I have for you today.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: Like I said, make sure to watch the volatility today, but also tune in and watch Mr.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: He does a heck of a show every afternoon on AgSquawk P.M.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think his slate or lineup of guests, whatever you want to call it, is going to be quite excellent.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure and tune in.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: We had a great one this past Friday.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: I really enjoyed that one a good deal.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Well, follow us on all our socials.
• 5:28
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• 5:30
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• 5:37
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• 5:42
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• 5:45
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• 5:52
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• 5:59
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• 6:03
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• 6:05
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• 6:08
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• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: With that, that's all I have for you guys today.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for listening.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Agbol Media.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.