Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Knock Me Out | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/28/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Knock Me Out | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/28/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
0:19
Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt man, you look
0:23
Speaker 1: like a mess. Three team Parlette turned the dust in
0:28
Speaker 1: your head.
0:29
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
0:31
Speaker 1: Like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet.
0:35
Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal means
0:38
Speaker 1: something on somebody for show.
0:41
Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
0:46
Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
1:00
Speaker 3: hold on.
1:02
Speaker 2: Me, but it don't get the crowd.
1:14
Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
1:18
Speaker 5: Now, what's up, per buddy, it's towed back with you
1:29
Speaker 5: with toad Stool Sports, Sunday, June twenty eighth. I don't
1:33
Speaker 5: have any voice. I don't know how I'm gonna get
1:35
Speaker 5: through this show. I barely did it yesterday whatever one
1:41
Speaker 5: and one on the show yesterday the Cincinnati Reds were
1:45
Speaker 5: tied at the end of the first five, and of
1:46
Speaker 5: course they wound up winning the game barely. But yeah,
1:51
Speaker 5: so there's no way that I would include Cincinnati's bullpen
1:55
Speaker 5: in any of my plays. Though, there's no way. So
1:58
Speaker 5: that was BS. I mean, Burns was the better pitcher
2:01
Speaker 5: in the game, and we still didn't get the win
2:03
Speaker 5: on that and then the loser was the Diamondbacks. Cabrera
2:09
Speaker 5: just kind of lost it a little bit, and the
2:11
Speaker 5: d Backs didn't put up any offense, so what can
2:14
Speaker 5: you do. They lose by two runs. We needed them
2:16
Speaker 5: to lose by one to at least push the bet.
2:19
Speaker 5: That didn't happen. Whatever, I'm gonna give about two totals
2:23
Speaker 5: here and a WNBA play. I'm skipping the World Cup,
2:28
Speaker 5: although you can go watch my World Cup bracket special
2:31
Speaker 5: that I did last night. Very boring. I filled out
2:35
Speaker 5: a bracket. I hate my bracket. It's probably not gonna
2:38
Speaker 5: be right. It's a game, very bracket. You can go
2:41
Speaker 5: check that out if you want to. It was quick,
2:43
Speaker 5: it was late. I was just trying to do it
2:45
Speaker 5: to get through it all right. Afternoon baseball here Cincinnati
2:50
Speaker 5: and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is trying to avoid a sweep at home,
2:55
Speaker 5: so a lot of times I will look towards that team.
2:58
Speaker 5: Teams that are trying to avoid getting swept at home
3:01
Speaker 5: tend to be a good way to look just because
3:03
Speaker 5: they are more motivated and they're the home team, so
3:06
Speaker 5: a lot of times they're favored and whatever. And in
3:08
Speaker 5: this case, yeah, Pittsburgh is the better team here. They
3:11
Speaker 5: probably have the better starting pitcher on them out here too.
3:14
Speaker 5: Cincinnati does have Milwaukee next, so it is possible Cincinnati
3:18
Speaker 5: starts looking ahead to that. Don't really know they're gonna
3:21
Speaker 5: overlook Pittsburgh though, because Pittsburgh has been good better than expected.
3:26
Speaker 5: At least. Cincinnati used four relief pitchers yesterday. I would
3:29
Speaker 5: not want any part of their bullpen. Pittsburgh used four.
3:34
Speaker 5: Neither bullpen is good. Pittsburgh number twenty one, Cincinnati twenty eight.
3:38
Speaker 5: Based on whip. Pittsburgh is number three in offense. Cincinnati
3:42
Speaker 5: is somewhere not good, twenty third, tied with the Red Sox. Yeah,
3:46
Speaker 5: that's how you know they're not good. So Pittsburgh does
3:49
Speaker 5: have an advantage in the bullpen and in the offense,
3:53
Speaker 5: and probably in the starting pitching. Brady Singers, pitcher for Cincinnati,
3:57
Speaker 5: not good. Four point eight one ERA, one point five
4:00
Speaker 5: to one. Whip is really bad. He's really bad on
4:03
Speaker 5: the road six point three to two road. He ra
4:06
Speaker 5: did pitch once in Pittsburgh earlier this year. It did
4:10
Speaker 5: not go well. He only lasted three and a third
4:12
Speaker 5: in He's allowed four and runs on seven hits, one strikeout,
4:16
Speaker 5: two walks. Very bad pitching line in that game. So
4:20
Speaker 5: why am I not giving out a play on Pittsburgh here? Well,
4:23
Speaker 5: Singer actually has good numbers against them, at least seventy
4:26
Speaker 5: six at bats to eleven average six sixty seven ohps.
4:30
Speaker 5: I mean, I expected his numbers to be a lot
4:32
Speaker 5: worse year, especially given that he was horrible against them
4:35
Speaker 5: earlier this year. Eleven to eight strike at walker ratio
4:38
Speaker 5: is bad, but the rest of these numbers are not bad.
4:41
Speaker 5: So I don't know if I really want to do it,
4:44
Speaker 5: and I don't know if I want to back Mitch
4:45
Speaker 5: Keller either, because he hasn't been that good. Four point
4:48
Speaker 5: eight niney RA one point three to two whip five
4:52
Speaker 5: point six to two homie RA very bad. He was
4:55
Speaker 5: good last time out against Seattle, wasn't really pitching well
4:59
Speaker 5: in the start prior to that, although the fielding kind
5:01
Speaker 5: of hurt him in the game before that, and the
5:04
Speaker 5: two games prior to that were against the Dodgers in Atlanta,
5:07
Speaker 5: so he's definitely not facing an offense that good here.
5:10
Speaker 5: His numbers are ugly, like ugly, though his walk rate
5:13
Speaker 5: is too high, strike out rate is low, but that's
5:15
Speaker 5: expected with him. Hit rate is fine, but he's not
5:19
Speaker 5: in the greatest form necessarily right now. Numbers against Cincinnati
5:23
Speaker 5: are right though, two thirty one average, seven to twenty
5:26
Speaker 5: three oh ps, thirty one to fourteen strike out walk
5:29
Speaker 5: ratio one hundred and seventeen at bats. That's still not
5:33
Speaker 5: a good ratio there, though he did pitch against them
5:35
Speaker 5: earlier this year. I think, yeah, he dominated them here
5:38
Speaker 5: at home earlier this year. Seven innings, one run allowed,
5:41
Speaker 5: six to one strike out walk ratio, three hits a loud,
5:44
Speaker 5: So those numbers are all good. So I do still
5:46
Speaker 5: like Pittsburgh here, but the only guy could do it. Singer,
5:50
Speaker 5: by the way, has actually been better over his last
5:52
Speaker 5: couple of starts. He's said, like three good starts in
5:54
Speaker 5: a row here. One of them was against Milwaukee, so
5:57
Speaker 5: that's a decent sign. Singer is actually in better form
6:00
Speaker 5: right now. Can you trust him? Though? Probably not, but
6:05
Speaker 5: I don't necessarily want to fade him when he actually
6:07
Speaker 5: is at least in good form right now. Although the
6:09
Speaker 5: prior to starts are against bad offenses Mets and Padres.
6:13
Speaker 5: He's got a really high hit rate on the season,
6:15
Speaker 5: a lot of home runs allowed, walk rate not too
6:19
Speaker 5: great and strike got raided is low to I'm gonna
6:23
Speaker 5: lean Pittsburgh, but it's not gonna make my card. The
6:26
Speaker 5: money is disagreeing with Pittsburgh. They're a minus one thirty something,
6:30
Speaker 5: sixty four percent of ticket sixty three percent of the
6:32
Speaker 5: cash on them, so the money's disagreeing with Pittsburgh here.
6:36
Speaker 5: I lean that way. I mean, I could see the
6:38
Speaker 5: argument for the over as well. The totals at nine,
6:42
Speaker 5: so it's right on that key number. Money is kind
6:45
Speaker 5: of backing the over here. I mean, you really have
6:48
Speaker 5: some pretty untrustworthy pitchers really just going throughout this game,
6:52
Speaker 5: really including the bullpens, so maybe an over is really
6:56
Speaker 5: the better way to play that game. I don't have
6:59
Speaker 5: a ton on that one. On Kyle, what's off? Thanks
7:01
Speaker 5: for hanging out. Washington and Baltimore. I was thinking this
7:06
Speaker 5: series looked like it was gonna be more of an
7:08
Speaker 5: over series. I mean, it is involving Washington, so usually
7:12
Speaker 5: that is the case, but that has not been the case.
7:14
Speaker 5: Both games have gone under. This is the rubber match
7:19
Speaker 5: of the series, so both teams probably show up here.
7:21
Speaker 5: It is kind of a rivalry geographic rivalry. Baltimore used
7:25
Speaker 5: four relief pitchers yesterday. Washington also did neither. Bullpen is good,
7:30
Speaker 5: Washington really bad twenty sixth Baltimore sixteenth, but their ERA
7:35
Speaker 5: is still not good. Offensively, these teams are capable. Washington
7:40
Speaker 5: is good. They're tied in fourth here with Colorado, but
7:44
Speaker 5: I think they're better than Colorado Baltimore fifteenth in offense.
7:48
Speaker 5: So again, it does seem like more of an over
7:50
Speaker 5: type of matchup here. Zach Lttel is pitching for Washington.
7:54
Speaker 5: He's not good five point four ERA, one point three
7:57
Speaker 5: to seven WHIP. He is better on the row though,
8:00
Speaker 5: four point two to five roady RA, so maybe this
8:04
Speaker 5: is not the worst setup for him here. He's not
8:06
Speaker 5: pitching well recently either though. I mean, his pitching line
8:10
Speaker 5: was okay last time, but I actually don't know why
8:12
Speaker 5: they took him out after four innings against Philly because
8:15
Speaker 5: he hadn't thrown that many pitches. He was actually having
8:17
Speaker 5: a decent start, so I don't really know why he
8:19
Speaker 5: exited that game early. But other than that, yeah, he
8:23
Speaker 5: hasn't really been pitching well. He has a really low
8:24
Speaker 5: strikeout rate on the season, hit rate is too high,
8:27
Speaker 5: his walk rate is actually not that bad. He also
8:30
Speaker 5: lost a ton of home runs. That's not good. Against
8:34
Speaker 5: Baltimore not great. Two fifty nine average, eight to eleven ops,
8:39
Speaker 5: twenty one to five strike out walk ratio is good
8:41
Speaker 5: one hundred eight at bats, so we have a big
8:43
Speaker 5: sample here. His problem is he's too hittable, man. I mean,
8:46
Speaker 5: he doesn't walk that many guys, but he throws a
8:48
Speaker 5: lot of pitches over the plate. I don't really trust him.
8:52
Speaker 5: Kyle Bradish just pitching for the Orioles. His era looks
8:55
Speaker 5: good three point sixty four. His whip kind of tells
8:58
Speaker 5: a different story one point four to five. That is
9:01
Speaker 5: not good. He's been better recently, though, and he is
9:05
Speaker 5: better at home three point one to five home he ra.
9:08
Speaker 5: Bradish has actually been really good in his last two starts,
9:10
Speaker 5: both on the road against Seattle and Anaheim. He went
9:15
Speaker 5: fifteen and two thirds innings combined and only allowed one
9:18
Speaker 5: run across those two starts. Twenty one to three strike
9:22
Speaker 5: out walk ratio. That's pretty good stuff right there. He's
9:27
Speaker 5: in good form right now. Numbers against Washington are actually
9:30
Speaker 5: not bad. Two fifty eight average, five eighty two ops
9:34
Speaker 5: allowed six two strike out walk ratio only thirty one
9:37
Speaker 5: at bats. They have five hitters who have faced him.
9:40
Speaker 5: I think you gotta go Baltimore in this game if
9:42
Speaker 5: you're gonna play this game. I think they have the
9:44
Speaker 5: better starting pitcher here. He's in the better form here
9:47
Speaker 5: as well. Uh, you actually have a bullpen advantage as well.
9:51
Speaker 5: The money's not agreeing with that, seventy nine percent of
9:54
Speaker 5: tickets on Baltimore sixty two percent of the cash on Washington.
9:59
Speaker 5: I don't buy it. I think Baltimore makes some sense here.
10:02
Speaker 5: I mean, probably the money is because of the price though,
10:04
Speaker 5: Like Baltimore's minus two hundred, So yeah, I mean, I
10:07
Speaker 5: can kind of see the argument for not playing Baltimore
10:10
Speaker 5: at the very least because mine is two hundred with
10:13
Speaker 5: Bradish on them on. I mean, it does seem like
10:17
Speaker 5: like you're never gonna see him favored by that much
10:20
Speaker 5: really against a pretty capable Washington team. So yeah, I mean,
10:23
Speaker 5: I guess, I guess I see the argument for why
10:27
Speaker 5: the money is on Washington there. It's all about the price.
10:29
Speaker 5: But I don't see Baltimore losing that game though. I
10:33
Speaker 5: think they have the matchup edge in all of the
10:35
Speaker 5: pitching in the game. Over probably makes a lot. I
10:39
Speaker 5: mean I guess over could make sense here because you're
10:41
Speaker 5: looking at two pitchers that just generally aren't that good,
10:45
Speaker 5: and both bullpens could give it up too, So an
10:48
Speaker 5: over nine I guess kind of makes sense there. The
10:50
Speaker 5: money's coming in on the over, but I don't love it.
10:56
Speaker 5: The Braves. The Braves have some like major advantages in
11:01
Speaker 5: their game today. I would not fade them today. Bradish,
11:05
Speaker 5: I mean, he looked really good in his last two starts.
11:08
Speaker 5: I just showed you his numbers. He's he's not that bad,
11:13
Speaker 5: although I don't know. He's not as good as his
11:14
Speaker 5: r makes him look, and he's not as bad as
11:17
Speaker 5: his whip makes him look. I don't I don't know
11:18
Speaker 5: how else to describe it. Yes, I talked about that
11:22
Speaker 5: Royals game yesterday, Zach, what's up? Yeah, it was a
11:27
Speaker 5: football score. Well, it wasn't a football score because you
11:30
Speaker 5: can't score one point in football. I don't know. I mean,
11:37
Speaker 5: I liked the Royals yesterday in the first five, and
11:39
Speaker 5: that would have been a push. Both starting pitchers didn't
11:42
Speaker 5: allow anything. But I was right the walk out pitch
11:45
Speaker 5: Martin in that game, though, it just didn't translate onto
11:48
Speaker 5: the scoreboard. Texas at Toronto. Toronto's on the verge of
11:53
Speaker 5: a four game sweep here at the hands of Texas,
11:56
Speaker 5: like Toronto is about to get swept. So again, you
11:59
Speaker 5: have one of those situation where the home team is
12:01
Speaker 5: about to get swept, that is Toronto. I would be
12:04
Speaker 5: leaning towards Toronto potentially for that reason. Also, I think
12:08
Speaker 5: they have the better starting pitcher on the mount and
12:09
Speaker 5: you actually get kind of a cheap price with this too,
12:12
Speaker 5: although Toronto does not have the better bullpen here against Texas.
12:15
Speaker 5: Texas plays Cleveland next. I mean, might they look ahead
12:19
Speaker 5: to that? Maybe? I mean Cleveland is I believe leading
12:22
Speaker 5: the AL Central right now, so maybe Texas does look
12:25
Speaker 5: ahead to Cleveland. That's an ESPN game tomorrow, so they
12:28
Speaker 5: might look ahead to it for that reason. It's a
12:30
Speaker 5: big pitching duel type of matchup there tomorrow. So yeah, situationally,
12:36
Speaker 5: Toronto looks like they're gonna be the right side here.
12:39
Speaker 5: Texas used four relief pitchers yesterday, Toronto used five, so
12:44
Speaker 5: I would not want to deal with Toronto's bullpen. They're okay,
12:47
Speaker 5: They're ranked thirteenth, Texas is ranked ninth. Texas definitely has
12:51
Speaker 5: a bullpen advantage, even though their era has gone a
12:53
Speaker 5: little bit up. They have a good bullpen. Texas not
12:58
Speaker 5: good offensively really, they're up to nineteenth though. The Blue
13:01
Speaker 5: Jays twenty second also not good. Kumar Rocker is pitching
13:06
Speaker 5: for Texas. Not really a guy would want to back,
13:09
Speaker 5: especially on the road. Four point one four era, one
13:12
Speaker 5: point three to eight whip is not great. Even though
13:15
Speaker 5: the era looks okay. He's actually been a little bit
13:18
Speaker 5: better recently, kind of his road ray has gone down
13:21
Speaker 5: to four point three to four. Actually, I think his
13:23
Speaker 5: home the ray has gone up though. Uh so he's
13:26
Speaker 5: he's balancing out man balance uh Rocker. He was actually
13:30
Speaker 5: good in his last start on the road against Miami,
13:33
Speaker 5: but he was not doing well prior to that. Is
13:35
Speaker 5: a couple starts prior to that were ugly. So I
13:38
Speaker 5: don't know if I trust one good start against Miami
13:41
Speaker 5: out of him. Here he's got a not a great
13:44
Speaker 5: hit rate here. His walk rate is way too high,
13:48
Speaker 5: strike out rate is low as well. A Rocker does
13:52
Speaker 5: not have much experience against Toronto, or they don't have
13:54
Speaker 5: much experience against him. Four batters have faced in five
13:58
Speaker 5: at bats. The only hit is a single from Clement
14:02
Speaker 5: or Clement. I think it's Clement, like Matt Clement. I
14:06
Speaker 5: remember that guy, that pitcher. He was on the Red
14:08
Speaker 5: Sox for a little while. One one strike at walker
14:11
Speaker 5: ratio here, two hundred average, five thirty three oh ps.
14:15
Speaker 5: I don't really trust small sample sizes that much though.
14:18
Speaker 5: And Shane Bieber is pitching here for Toronto. He's good,
14:23
Speaker 5: although it didn't show in his first outing. I mean,
14:25
Speaker 5: obviously he has a nine point eight two ERA and
14:27
Speaker 5: two point four or five WIT, but he's obviously not
14:30
Speaker 5: that bad. I mean, you look throughout his career. He's
14:32
Speaker 5: been a really good pitcher throughout his career. He's dealing
14:35
Speaker 5: with injury his the last couple of seasons, though he
14:37
Speaker 5: just came back. He made one start this season. It
14:40
Speaker 5: was not good against Houston. Houston completely lit him up,
14:44
Speaker 5: but I might give him a pass for that because
14:47
Speaker 5: it was his first game back. He really hasn't pitched
14:49
Speaker 5: that much over the last two seasons. When he was
14:52
Speaker 5: pitching last year he was fairly good. I gave out
14:54
Speaker 5: some plays on him last year. I think at some
14:57
Speaker 5: point he's going to return to for him as long
14:59
Speaker 5: as he gets day out there and stay healthy. So
15:02
Speaker 5: I don't think his numbers tell you anything about what
15:04
Speaker 5: he really is. He does have really good numbers against
15:07
Speaker 5: Texas one ninety three average allowed, four to eighty three
15:10
Speaker 5: oh ps and fifty seven at bats fourteen to two
15:13
Speaker 5: strike out walk ratiom am I ready to back him here?
15:18
Speaker 5: I don't think I want to, But I think you
15:22
Speaker 5: gotta look at Toronto in this one. Yes, Toronto first
15:25
Speaker 5: five is what I would do here. I would avoid
15:27
Speaker 5: their bullpen. Uh yeah, I think Toronto has a starting
15:31
Speaker 5: pitching edge you gotta worry about. Is is Bieber actually
15:34
Speaker 5: going to be back and form? Though I don't know
15:36
Speaker 5: that's really the question here. Well, that and maybe Toronto's
15:39
Speaker 5: offense will struggle against Rocker. I mean, I guess that
15:42
Speaker 5: is possible because they don't have much experience against him.
15:46
Speaker 5: Toronto's at minus one thirty something here. The money is
15:49
Speaker 5: fading Toronto though sixty seven percent of tickets fifty seven
15:53
Speaker 5: percent of the cash on them, So the money doesn't
15:55
Speaker 5: agree with Toronto here, and the money is also backing
15:58
Speaker 5: the over. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me,
16:01
Speaker 5: Like this game looks more like an under to me
16:03
Speaker 5: than an over. But I don't know. I think Toronto
16:07
Speaker 5: to avoid the sweep with the guy who is generally
16:09
Speaker 5: the more backable pitcher here on the mound. Yeah, I
16:13
Speaker 5: think Toronto first five makes the most sense there. You
16:16
Speaker 5: might have to lay a half run though, if you
16:18
Speaker 5: do it that way, because they're probably more inflated on
16:22
Speaker 5: the line there with Bieber, but maybe because he hasn't
16:25
Speaker 5: been good recently. So I don't know, mister Pinsey, what's up?
16:30
Speaker 5: What's concerning? I have no idea a Bieber. I mean, again,
16:35
Speaker 5: like his career numbers are really really excellent though, so
16:38
Speaker 5: he just needs to he needs to be healthy. But
16:41
Speaker 5: I guess the other question is, like, I mean, we
16:44
Speaker 5: don't know, we don't know how severe like these injuries
16:47
Speaker 5: that he's had have really been, So I don't know.
16:49
Speaker 5: Sometimes guys just won't come back from injury. But he's
16:52
Speaker 5: not that old. He's like thirty one, so I don't know.
16:56
Speaker 5: It's easier for guys in their twenties to bounce back.
16:59
Speaker 5: Arizona at Tampa Bay don't even want to talk about
17:02
Speaker 5: this series. Tampa Bay is about to sweep Arizona here.
17:06
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay. I forget who they're playing next, because I
17:09
Speaker 5: think they're one of the four teams that are off tomorrow,
17:13
Speaker 5: I forget who they're playing after this. I think I
17:15
Speaker 5: don't even know. I don't want to guess, but I
17:17
Speaker 5: don't think it's a look ahead spot for them, whoever
17:19
Speaker 5: they're I think it's like Kansas It might be Kansas City. Yeah,
17:22
Speaker 5: I don't think it's a look ahead spot, but I
17:24
Speaker 5: don't know. Well, they just played Kansas City though, so
17:26
Speaker 5: I don't know if that's right. Maybe it is. Anyway,
17:30
Speaker 5: Arizona might be a little bit more motivated because they're
17:32
Speaker 5: trying to avoid the sweep. But Arizona's got a huge
17:34
Speaker 5: problem here because the starting pitching matchup does not favor
17:39
Speaker 5: them at all. Here. Tampa Bay not a good bullpen,
17:44
Speaker 5: though they used five relief pitchers yesterday. Arizona's bullpen I
17:48
Speaker 5: don't love, but they set up better here, they're more rested.
17:51
Speaker 5: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. Arizona's the eighth rank
17:54
Speaker 5: bullpend here, although the array still not really that good.
17:57
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay's bullpen he array worse than that. They're at twelfth,
18:01
Speaker 5: But I think I think both bullpens are worse than
18:04
Speaker 5: where they rank here. Tampa Bay does have the lesser
18:08
Speaker 5: of the two bullpens here, Tampa Bay has got the
18:10
Speaker 5: better offense. They're back up to eleventh, Arizona twenty sixth.
18:14
Speaker 5: Not good. Merril Kelly is on the mound for Arizona.
18:18
Speaker 5: He has not been pitching well. His career might be over, dude.
18:21
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know, Like he's not really like
18:23
Speaker 5: a velocity guy. So I thought that he'd continue to
18:26
Speaker 5: be able to pitch alright, but that is not happening.
18:29
Speaker 5: He's returned to the team that he's been on most
18:31
Speaker 5: of his career. His career numbers have been decent, but
18:34
Speaker 5: not this year. Five point seven to one ERA, one
18:37
Speaker 5: point five to two Whip. That's really bad. He is
18:40
Speaker 5: good on the road, though, or at least better on
18:43
Speaker 5: the road. Four point three to one Roady Ray. That's
18:46
Speaker 5: not as bad. His last start was okay against Saint Louis,
18:49
Speaker 5: but that was a pitcher friendly park in Saint Louis.
18:52
Speaker 5: Walked more guys than he struck out. Still, so still
18:55
Speaker 5: some red flags in there. He's kind of alternating good
18:58
Speaker 5: and bad starts here, should mean this one would be
19:00
Speaker 5: a bad one if that continues. He's got a high
19:03
Speaker 5: hit rate, a really low strikeout rate. He's not really
19:07
Speaker 5: a strikeout pitcher, but even for him, that's low, and
19:09
Speaker 5: his walk rate is too high as well, So not
19:12
Speaker 5: a tons of like here from him. Numbers against Tampa
19:15
Speaker 5: not good, although only six of their hitters have faced him.
19:17
Speaker 5: Fifteen at bats, four hundred average, one thy seventy one
19:21
Speaker 5: oh ps, two to two strikeout walk ratio doesn't look good.
19:25
Speaker 5: He's he's gonna have to go up against Drew Rasmussen,
19:28
Speaker 5: who is in the Cy Young discussion at this point,
19:31
Speaker 5: which seems kind of insane. But he's got good numbers
19:35
Speaker 5: here two point six two ERA point eighty eight whip
19:38
Speaker 5: is really good. He's a little bit worse at home
19:41
Speaker 5: two point nine ERA, as if that's bad, though he's
19:45
Speaker 5: been in really good form this month. He has a
19:47
Speaker 5: thirty four to three strikeout walk ratio in an ERA
19:50
Speaker 5: of one, and he's allowed only thirteen hits in twenty
19:53
Speaker 5: seven innings. He's definitely on fire here, although he faced
19:56
Speaker 5: three bad offenses out of these four. But he did
19:59
Speaker 5: do really well against the Dodgers here too, and he
20:02
Speaker 5: was really good against the Yankees towards the end of
20:04
Speaker 5: May too, so he's definitely pitching well, he's got a
20:08
Speaker 5: fairly high strikeout rate, especially for him, because I don't
20:10
Speaker 5: think he's that much of a strikeout guy. Really, low
20:13
Speaker 5: walk rate, low hit rate. Everything looks pretty good here.
20:16
Speaker 5: Numbers against Arizona are actually not good though, two ninety
20:20
Speaker 5: four average eight thirty three ohps, five to two strikeout
20:23
Speaker 5: walk Raciero in thirty four at bats. So maybe this
20:27
Speaker 5: is an offense that can get to him a little
20:28
Speaker 5: bit here. I mean, I wouldn't really want to fade
20:31
Speaker 5: Rasmusen though. I mean, he's just pitching way too well
20:33
Speaker 5: right now. He's clearly in way, way better for him
20:36
Speaker 5: than Merril Kelly. But you do have to pay for
20:38
Speaker 5: it if you want Tampa Bay here you're looking at
20:41
Speaker 5: like minus two hundred at this point, which is really insane.
20:45
Speaker 5: Minus one ninety something. Basically here, the money is back
20:48
Speaker 5: in Arizona. Eighty six percent of tickets on Tampa, sixty
20:51
Speaker 5: six percent of the cash on Arizona. If you're gonna
20:55
Speaker 5: play Arizona, you should do a full game, That would
20:58
Speaker 5: be my opinion here, because you'll get like I think
21:00
Speaker 5: you'll at least get a bullpen advantage from them here.
21:03
Speaker 5: The starting pitching looks like it's where Tampa Bay has
21:06
Speaker 5: the biggest advantage here with the pitching starting pitching. Yeah,
21:11
Speaker 5: I don't know what else to say about this game.
21:13
Speaker 5: The money's kind of backing the over all though, the
21:15
Speaker 5: total seven and a half, which seems really low for
21:18
Speaker 5: a Merrill Kelly game, but maybe it's warranted. I mean,
21:23
Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I mean, I could see the
21:25
Speaker 5: over because neither pitcher really has good matchup numbers here,
21:28
Speaker 5: so you don't have a lot of leeway with the
21:31
Speaker 5: seven and a half there, and you have bullpens that
21:33
Speaker 5: are really not that good. So an over I think
21:37
Speaker 5: there are more arguments for an over than an under
21:39
Speaker 5: in that game. I will say that I don't know
21:42
Speaker 5: what else to say about that game, but situation favors
21:44
Speaker 5: Arizona bit. The starting pitching definitely favors Tampa Bay though,
21:49
Speaker 5: So I don't know what else to say about that. Gerald,
21:52
Speaker 5: what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right? Era, No, Arizona.
21:57
Speaker 5: We talked about that. Houston and Detroit, this looks like
22:01
Speaker 5: a pitching matchup that favors Houston. I will say that
22:05
Speaker 5: these teams, you know, they haven't split the series. Houston's
22:08
Speaker 5: won two out of the three of this four game
22:11
Speaker 5: series here, will Houston overlook Detroit? I don't know about that.
22:15
Speaker 5: Houston's next opponent is Minnesota, so kind of unlikely they're
22:19
Speaker 5: gonna overlook this matchup here. Probably would also like to
22:23
Speaker 5: avoid the split series if they can. Houston used four
22:27
Speaker 5: leaf pitchers yesterday. Detroit used four as well. Looks like
22:32
Speaker 5: these bullpens have been pitching better recently. Detroit's bullpen is
22:36
Speaker 5: up to seventeenth. They're in like mediocre range here now.
22:40
Speaker 5: Houston kind of going that way too at nineteenth. Houston's
22:44
Speaker 5: really kind of turned it around in the bullpen, so
22:46
Speaker 5: these are no longer bullpens that you really have to avoid.
22:50
Speaker 5: Houston number thirteen in offense, so they've actually fallen off offensively.
22:54
Speaker 5: Detroit is twentieth, so that's not great either. Makes it
22:58
Speaker 5: look like, you know, more of an under matchup than
23:00
Speaker 5: maybe you would think. Hunter Brown is pitching for Houston.
23:04
Speaker 5: He's good. He came back from injury not that long ago.
23:08
Speaker 5: I think he made a couple of starts early in
23:10
Speaker 5: the season, got injured, and then he's made two since
23:13
Speaker 5: coming back. I think he's got a one point four
23:15
Speaker 5: ERA one point one to nine whip that's all good.
23:18
Speaker 5: Hera on the road is a little bit worse at three.
23:22
Speaker 5: He had like one bad start I think on the road. Actually, no,
23:24
Speaker 5: he didn't really have any I think it was just
23:26
Speaker 5: because last outing he had a short outing against Toronto.
23:30
Speaker 5: They're still kind of limiting his pitch count a little bit.
23:32
Speaker 5: He was really inefficient with his pitches against Toronto last
23:35
Speaker 5: time out, but he only allowed one run in three innings,
23:38
Speaker 5: but through too many pitches. His walk rate has been
23:41
Speaker 5: a little bit concerning here. Strike out rate is really high,
23:44
Speaker 5: hit rate is low as well. He's got to get
23:47
Speaker 5: these walks under control. But he's a really good pitcher.
23:49
Speaker 5: I mean, he saw what he could do the last
23:51
Speaker 5: couple of years. I'm not too concerned with Brown here.
23:53
Speaker 5: I think he should do well. He's got good numbers
23:56
Speaker 5: against Detroit. He just faced Detroit his first game back
24:00
Speaker 5: from injury, and I believe I gave that out as
24:01
Speaker 5: a play. I think it was a winner on the
24:03
Speaker 5: show of First five Under because that was Valdez going
24:07
Speaker 5: up against his former team and it was Brown, who
24:09
Speaker 5: I considered to be a veteran at this point returning
24:11
Speaker 5: from injury. So I liked that setup. He bitched well
24:15
Speaker 5: in that start, although he walked too many guys so
24:17
Speaker 5: he was still kind of inefficient with his pitches. But
24:20
Speaker 5: overall he's really good against Detroit one ninety six average
24:24
Speaker 5: allowed five point fifty five ops in one hundred and
24:27
Speaker 5: two at bats, so they have a lot of at
24:29
Speaker 5: bats against him, and they still haven't done much against
24:31
Speaker 5: him thirty six strikeouts. The walk number is still kind
24:34
Speaker 5: of high though at twelve, but overall really good numbers.
24:38
Speaker 5: So I think Brown should pitch well. He's going up
24:41
Speaker 5: against Jack Flaherty. He's actually returning from the injury list here.
24:45
Speaker 5: He's definitely a veteran, so you know, I do actually
24:47
Speaker 5: like veterans when they come back from injury because I
24:49
Speaker 5: think they get pumped up to get back out there.
24:52
Speaker 5: They might give you a better start than maybe they
24:54
Speaker 5: normally would. Flaherty has been really untrustworthy though, before he
24:58
Speaker 5: went down with injury five point three five this year,
25:01
Speaker 5: one point five to seven whip really bad, not good
25:05
Speaker 5: at home either, five point six homey ra he was
25:08
Speaker 5: struggling before he went down. He actually well, actually he
25:11
Speaker 5: had a couple of good starts before he got injured.
25:14
Speaker 5: I think in the middle of his last outing against Cleveland,
25:16
Speaker 5: he wasn't really pitching well in that one though. Overall,
25:21
Speaker 5: he's got kind of a high hit rate here. Strikeout
25:23
Speaker 5: rate has actually been good, so he does have strikeout
25:25
Speaker 5: stuff here, but his walk rate has also been way
25:27
Speaker 5: too high, so he puts way too many guys on base,
25:31
Speaker 5: like in every way possible, even though he also strikes
25:34
Speaker 5: a lot of guys out. Very very weird pitching numbers there.
25:39
Speaker 5: He does have good numbers against Houston though, two point
25:42
Speaker 5: two average, five eighty five oh ps, twenty nine to
25:45
Speaker 5: seven strikeout walk race here in eighty four at bats,
25:48
Speaker 5: So maybe he does pitch well here coming back from
25:50
Speaker 5: injury in a matchup that's at least good for him.
25:55
Speaker 5: I still think Houston makes some sense in this game.
25:57
Speaker 5: They have the better starting pitcher at least. I mean,
26:00
Speaker 5: you can make the argument that you should avoid their bullpen, though,
26:03
Speaker 5: so maybe you you could go first five with Houston
26:06
Speaker 5: here because they do have some advantage there. I think
26:09
Speaker 5: with Brown over Flaherty, seventy four percent of tickets, eighty
26:12
Speaker 5: three percent of the cash on Houston, they're like minus
26:15
Speaker 5: one thirty. They're probably a little bit heavier priced on
26:17
Speaker 5: the first five though, and you are laying a price
26:20
Speaker 5: like that on the road. I don't necessarily want to
26:23
Speaker 5: do that, though, And there are arguments to be made
26:26
Speaker 5: for an under in this game. It would be under
26:28
Speaker 5: eight UH sixty two tickets ninety three percent of the
26:31
Speaker 5: cash on the over here. But you might get good
26:34
Speaker 5: starting pitching for both pitchers here, and man I just
26:36
Speaker 5: showed you the matchup numbers, so this could be an under.
26:40
Speaker 5: You could go first five to maybe make it a
26:42
Speaker 5: little bit safer, although safe when backing Flaherty isn't really
26:47
Speaker 5: a thing though, but the bullpens look like they're a
26:49
Speaker 5: little bit more backable now than they have been in
26:51
Speaker 5: the past, So maybe first five under those just a
26:55
Speaker 5: little bit of a better play than the full game.
26:58
Speaker 2: UH.
26:58
Speaker 5: Next game ESPN Unlimited is Philadelphia and the Mets. They've
27:03
Speaker 5: split the series so far. It's a big divisional matchup.
27:06
Speaker 5: Mets won yesterday and they ended along losing streak, so
27:09
Speaker 5: sometimes that will help a team they've lost like seven
27:12
Speaker 5: or eight games in a row. When that happens. I
27:15
Speaker 5: always talk about that when a team ends a losing streaks,
27:17
Speaker 5: sometimes they will have that new momentum, like they'll finally
27:21
Speaker 5: break that losing momentum and they'll go on a little
27:23
Speaker 5: bit of a win streak. Maybe that could happen with
27:25
Speaker 5: the Mets, but with this pitching setup, I don't really
27:28
Speaker 5: think so. The Mets do have a decent bullpen, though
27:32
Speaker 5: better than decent, but they use four guys out of
27:34
Speaker 5: it yesterday and Philadelphia used four as well. The Mets
27:40
Speaker 5: have the better bullpen. They're actually third, and their bullpening
27:43
Speaker 5: ray is quite good, so that's not misleading really. Philadelphia
27:47
Speaker 5: number eleven are eray is up to four, which isn't
27:50
Speaker 5: really that good. Mets have a terrible offense, twenty eighth,
27:55
Speaker 5: tied with the Indians right now. Phillies have struggled offensively too.
27:59
Speaker 5: They're twenty third, tied with the Red Sox and the
28:02
Speaker 5: Reds actually all Red teams. Philadelphia is going with Jesus
28:07
Speaker 5: Lozardo here up against the Mets bullpen game, so Lozardo
28:11
Speaker 5: should have an advantage here. In the pitching. He's been okay,
28:15
Speaker 5: he's got a four ERA one point three whip, but
28:18
Speaker 5: I keep talking about how I think he's a little
28:19
Speaker 5: bit better than those numbers make him look. He got
28:22
Speaker 5: a little bit unlucky. For a while this season, just
28:25
Speaker 5: everybody reaching base was scoring against him, although his whip
28:28
Speaker 5: is still too high, so you gotta admit that. Although
28:32
Speaker 5: he's been better on the road one point five to
28:34
Speaker 5: two Roady Ray, so he's been considerably better on the road.
28:39
Speaker 5: He gave up one earned run last time out against Washington.
28:43
Speaker 5: It looked bad because he gave up five runs, but
28:45
Speaker 5: four of them were unearned, so the fielding did not
28:48
Speaker 5: help him out at all. And he struck out thirteen
28:52
Speaker 5: guys in six and two thirds innings in that one,
28:54
Speaker 5: so he obviously pitched well there. He's in pretty good
28:57
Speaker 5: form right now. Philadelphia has won six starts in a
29:00
Speaker 5: row of his so yeah, I mean, they're backing him
29:03
Speaker 5: with some runs. But he is also pitching pretty well
29:06
Speaker 5: right now. The numbers against the Mets are actually not
29:08
Speaker 5: as good as you would think. To sixty seven average
29:11
Speaker 5: allowed seven to sixty one ohps is a little bit high.
29:14
Speaker 5: One hundred and five at bats, twenty three to twelve
29:17
Speaker 5: strike out walker ratio. That's an ugly ratio. That's not good.
29:20
Speaker 5: So Lozardo, I mean, doesn't he doesn't draw the best
29:23
Speaker 5: matchup here, but the Mets really have struggled with offensively.
29:26
Speaker 5: Lozardo's been good on the road. He's pitching well recently,
29:29
Speaker 5: so I don't think he's gonna pitch that poorly here.
29:32
Speaker 5: Cnl Perez is pitching for the Mets. He's he's a
29:37
Speaker 5: relief pitcher, dude. So the Mets are going with a
29:39
Speaker 5: bullpen game here, and I always try to look like,
29:42
Speaker 5: what do they do four games prior to or five
29:45
Speaker 5: games prior to this, right to figure out what they're
29:47
Speaker 5: gonna do with their pitching here. Well, the problem with
29:49
Speaker 5: that is that the Mets played two games on one day,
29:53
Speaker 5: so it would be Sean Maniya's turned to go. I think,
29:56
Speaker 5: but he's pitching tomorrow, I'm pretty sure. Or actually I
29:59
Speaker 5: think Nolan McClain might be pitching tomorrow and then Manaia
30:01
Speaker 5: after that. So like the fact that they had a
30:05
Speaker 5: double header a few days ago throws everything off, right,
30:07
Speaker 5: because that means that one of those pitchers is not
30:10
Speaker 5: on the correct amount of rest. So neither like they
30:13
Speaker 5: couldn't pitch McClain or Manaia here if they wanted to
30:16
Speaker 5: give them their full rest. So I actually think they're
30:18
Speaker 5: just going with a bullpen game. Here, So I think
30:21
Speaker 5: Philly probably does get the win here. I don't want
30:25
Speaker 5: to bank on it, but yeah, I mean I'm passing
30:28
Speaker 5: on the game. Philly is getting some of the money,
30:30
Speaker 5: although you do have to lay minus one forty something
30:32
Speaker 5: with them. I don't really love their bullpen though, so
30:36
Speaker 5: I mean, Philly first five probably makes more sense, but
30:39
Speaker 5: you probably have to lay half a run because the
30:41
Speaker 5: odds makers are going to know that you're getting the most.
30:44
Speaker 5: Like your biggest advantage with Philly is playing them in
30:47
Speaker 5: the first five. The odds makers will know that as well,
30:50
Speaker 5: eighty four percent of tickets ninety four percent of the
30:52
Speaker 5: cash on Philly. I would lay the half run in
30:54
Speaker 5: the first five, probably with Philly, if I was gonna
30:57
Speaker 5: play this game at all, which I do not want to.
31:00
Speaker 5: The money's also backing the over. I could see the
31:03
Speaker 5: argument for it, I guess. I mean, Philly Lozardo just
31:07
Speaker 5: doesn't have great matchup numbers at least, and the Mets
31:10
Speaker 5: bullpen scenario doesn't look great, so you know there is
31:15
Speaker 5: that as well. You could maybe also just go with
31:17
Speaker 5: a Philly over their team total, just for Philly to
31:20
Speaker 5: get runs off of this Mets bullpen set. Up. But
31:23
Speaker 5: the Mets might actually pitch well in a bullpen game
31:26
Speaker 5: because their bullpen is fairly good. So but you know,
31:31
Speaker 5: you know, when you have a bullpen game, your top
31:34
Speaker 5: relievers are not pitching for the entire game, you know
31:36
Speaker 5: what I mean, So you have to use some of
31:38
Speaker 5: your lesser relievers in a setup like that. All right, dude,
31:42
Speaker 5: I'm totally losing my voice. I can't even do this.
31:47
Speaker 5: Next game up is one of my plays. I'm trying
31:57
Speaker 5: to give my voice a rest here. I don't know
32:00
Speaker 5: if it's ever gonna come back. I can't sing it
32:02
Speaker 5: all right now. I don't know what's going on. We're
32:04
Speaker 5: gonna take the under in Seattle and Cleveland. It's at
32:07
Speaker 5: seven and a half out there. I'm pretty sure you
32:09
Speaker 5: can find a number around that. A little bit of
32:11
Speaker 5: juice there on the under minus one fifteen. I like
32:15
Speaker 5: this to be a low scoring game here. I mean Cleveland,
32:17
Speaker 5: they play a lot of low scoring home games. But
32:20
Speaker 5: I think we're looking at a couple offenses that have
32:22
Speaker 5: been struggling recently. I think we're looking at some good
32:24
Speaker 5: pitching here. Seattle's got a very rested bullpen. In a
32:27
Speaker 5: good bullpen, they only us one guy out of it.
32:29
Speaker 5: Yesterday Cleveland did uce five, So you know, if you
32:34
Speaker 5: want to make this first five, I guess you could
32:36
Speaker 5: do that. But I'm hoping the starting pitching gets us
32:39
Speaker 5: deeper into this game, you know. That's what I'm kind
32:41
Speaker 5: of banking on here, Like when I see that under
32:44
Speaker 5: that key number seven and a half, I like to
32:46
Speaker 5: go full game when we have at least decent bullpens here,
32:50
Speaker 5: rather than trying to go under three and a half
32:52
Speaker 5: in the first five, which is a little bit questionable.
32:55
Speaker 5: Don't love that as much. So hopefully we can get
32:57
Speaker 5: extended starting pitching performances here to help us out. But
33:02
Speaker 5: Cleveland still has a couple of their better pitchers that
33:04
Speaker 5: haven't pitched a lot. They didn't pitch yesterday at least,
33:08
Speaker 5: so you know, they might still be able to do
33:10
Speaker 5: okay out of the bullpen here. And yeah, like I
33:15
Speaker 5: like the bullpens generally. Seattle is ranked fifteenth, Cleveland has
33:19
Speaker 5: ranked eighteenth, but I think they're both better than that.
33:21
Speaker 5: Seattle's got a mid threes bullpenny r Ray, so that's
33:24
Speaker 5: pretty good. I think there are top ten bullpen. Cleveland
33:27
Speaker 5: I think is maybe just outside of the top ten
33:30
Speaker 5: of their era is approaching four right now. But I
33:32
Speaker 5: think both bullpens are pretty decent. At least Seattle's is good.
33:37
Speaker 5: Neither offense has been good Cleveland twenty eighth, Seattle twenty sixth,
33:42
Speaker 5: Cleveland tied with the Mets. That's ugly stuff. So we're
33:45
Speaker 5: gonna face some offenses that have not been hitting well here.
33:48
Speaker 5: Seattle's dealing with some injuries in their offense. Cleveland definitely
33:51
Speaker 5: also is. So we have these teams don't have their
33:54
Speaker 5: full lineups here, and I like to starting pitching here. Obviously.
33:58
Speaker 5: Emerson Hancock is going for Seattle. He's having a good season,
34:01
Speaker 5: and I think he's still under the raidarm Man. Like
34:04
Speaker 5: both of these pitchers, people aren't really talking about them.
34:07
Speaker 5: Hancock has a three point six CRA one point h
34:10
Speaker 5: two whip is pretty good. He's only a little bit
34:13
Speaker 5: worse on the road three point eight six CRA. I'm
34:16
Speaker 5: not too concerned by that. I know Seattle's pitchers a
34:18
Speaker 5: lot of them won't be as good away from Seattle,
34:20
Speaker 5: but he's been fine and he gets a good match
34:23
Speaker 5: up here too. Now. Yeah, he wasn't good in his
34:26
Speaker 5: last two starts. One was against Washington, So I'll give
34:29
Speaker 5: him a pass for that. That's a good offense, Boston.
34:32
Speaker 5: You know, maybe you have to not give him a
34:34
Speaker 5: pass for that because that was at home Boston. Not
34:37
Speaker 5: a good offense. But he got a little bit unlucky.
34:40
Speaker 5: I mean, he gave up five runs on four hits
34:42
Speaker 5: in that game, so he definitely deserved to give up
34:45
Speaker 5: fewer runs than he did. Six strikeouts, two walks, so
34:48
Speaker 5: he wasn't actually bad in that outing. And he's going
34:51
Speaker 5: up against Cleveland, and he's got dominant numbers against Cleveland.
34:54
Speaker 5: Most of their hitters have faced him before. At this point,
34:57
Speaker 5: they have twenty seven at bats against him. They have
35:00
Speaker 5: one hit against him, a single from Rochio, who makes
35:05
Speaker 5: me think of the Karate Kid or something, Ralph Machio.
35:09
Speaker 5: What Machio Rochio? I think it's Rokio, but whatever. Hancock. Yeah,
35:16
Speaker 5: he's allowed one hit in twenty seven at bats against them.
35:19
Speaker 5: Also no walks and eight strikeouts, so they only have
35:23
Speaker 5: had one base runner against them. Ridiculous. Oh thirty seven average,
35:28
Speaker 5: seventy four ops. I mean, those numbers are unsustainably low.
35:32
Speaker 5: But Hancock's got dominant numbers against Cleveland. Gavin Williams pitching
35:36
Speaker 5: for Cleveland. He's been good three point eight two ERA,
35:40
Speaker 5: one point one four WHIP. He's been really good at
35:42
Speaker 5: home two point six four home ERA, so he has
35:45
Speaker 5: the home road splits in his favor here. He had
35:48
Speaker 5: one bat outing here recently on the road against Milwaukee,
35:51
Speaker 5: but he pitched at least decently against the Yankees prior
35:54
Speaker 5: to that. He was really kind of on fire for
35:56
Speaker 5: a few starts before running into the Yankees. But that's
35:59
Speaker 5: the Yankees. I mean, the last four starts he's had
36:02
Speaker 5: where against the Yankees twice, Milwaukee, and the White Sox.
36:06
Speaker 5: He'd bitch well against the White Sox last time out
36:09
Speaker 5: on the road, and now he gets a much easier
36:11
Speaker 5: draw at home against Seattle. So yeah, he's gonna be
36:15
Speaker 5: stepping down in class after facing a bunch of better
36:18
Speaker 5: offenses than that. And prior to those four games he
36:20
Speaker 5: faced Washington did well there face Philly on the road.
36:24
Speaker 5: Philly is better at home, so that was an impressive
36:28
Speaker 5: outing from him there too. Seattle does not have good
36:31
Speaker 5: numbers against him. One sixty one average, five point fifty
36:34
Speaker 5: eight ohps and fifty six at bats, fifteen to seven
36:37
Speaker 5: strike out walk race year. The only concern with Williams
36:40
Speaker 5: really is the walks. He has a really high strikeout rate,
36:44
Speaker 5: his walk rate. Actually, given the amount of innings he's pitched,
36:46
Speaker 5: he's gotten that walk number down two, so he's pitching
36:49
Speaker 5: a lot better for the most part. And his hit
36:51
Speaker 5: rate is still pretty low. So he's overall got some
36:54
Speaker 5: pretty good stats here. And then as far as Hancock
36:58
Speaker 5: is concerned, I keep forgetting to go over the overall
37:00
Speaker 5: numbers here, but forgive me. He's got a low hit rate,
37:04
Speaker 5: a low walk rate, and a reasonably high strike cut rate.
37:07
Speaker 5: Not too high, but still pretty good. So yeah, this
37:10
Speaker 5: game has underwritten all over it for me, so we're
37:13
Speaker 5: gonna go under here. I think the money is also
37:15
Speaker 5: agreeing with this. We have fifty two tickets seventy of
37:19
Speaker 5: the cash on the under. I'd still agree with the
37:22
Speaker 5: under seven, but it looks like a lot of the
37:23
Speaker 5: books out there have seven and a half right now.
37:25
Speaker 5: FD has it at the same price. I think I
37:28
Speaker 5: found this at the Roman Emperor's Book. They have it
37:30
Speaker 5: at the same price as well. The HR Cafe, if
37:35
Speaker 5: you want to call it that, the hard R Cafe,
37:40
Speaker 5: they have it at that number as well. It looks like,
37:42
Speaker 5: so yeah, do with that invot what you want. I
37:47
Speaker 5: think there might be a few other books here that
37:48
Speaker 5: I can't scroll over and see, but whatever. Okay, next
37:55
Speaker 5: game up is one of the big series here, Cubs
37:57
Speaker 5: and Brewers. These teams split the series so far. The
38:01
Speaker 5: Brewers did just lose a five game win streak with
38:04
Speaker 5: their loss yesterday to the Cubs, so maybe the Brewers
38:07
Speaker 5: will be a little bit hungover from that. I think
38:10
Speaker 5: the series means more to the Cubs right now because
38:13
Speaker 5: Milwaukee has a big lead over them, so maybe a
38:15
Speaker 5: little bit of motivational edge to the Cubs. Of the
38:18
Speaker 5: Cubs do not have the starting pitching edge here whatsoever,
38:22
Speaker 5: so I don't really see the Cubs being able to
38:25
Speaker 5: get it done here. Cubs use four relief pitchers. I
38:29
Speaker 5: think Milwaukee has a better bullpen two. Milwaukee also used four.
38:35
Speaker 5: The Cubs are ranked tenth in bullpen Milwaukee fourteenth, but
38:37
Speaker 5: Milwaukee's era is better. I think they are a better bullpen.
38:42
Speaker 5: Maybe that's just my feel. Though. Cubs are tied in
38:45
Speaker 5: sixth in offense with the A's. Brewers are a little
38:48
Speaker 5: bit below that at tenth, but we have two pretty
38:50
Speaker 5: good offenses here Cubs probably a little bit better. Problem
38:53
Speaker 5: with the Cubs is they're in the same type of
38:55
Speaker 5: situation as the Mets because they were the team that
38:58
Speaker 5: the Mets were playing when they had to play that
39:00
Speaker 5: doubleheader the other day. So the Cubs are in a
39:03
Speaker 5: starting pitching situation where they don't really have a pitcher
39:07
Speaker 5: that they can pitch on normal rest here. So I
39:11
Speaker 5: think it would normally be Javier assad I think would
39:15
Speaker 5: be next up in line for them, but I think
39:17
Speaker 5: he can't pitch today unless they want to pitch him
39:19
Speaker 5: on short rest. So it looks like they're just going
39:22
Speaker 5: with a bullpen game here because they have Ryan Ryan
39:24
Speaker 5: Rolis and listed as a starter here. He's been good,
39:29
Speaker 5: I mean, his numbers are good. He's somewhat of a
39:32
Speaker 5: young guy, you know, but he's just come out of
39:34
Speaker 5: the bullpen this whole time pretty much. So maybe he's
39:37
Speaker 5: made a couple of openers here, but he's gonna give
39:39
Speaker 5: you like one inning basically, maybe two. But Cubs, I
39:44
Speaker 5: don't know if they're gonna bring a sod after that,
39:46
Speaker 5: because I think they want to give him extra rest here,
39:49
Speaker 5: or give him the right amount of rests I should say,
39:51
Speaker 5: so I think this might be a true bullpen game
39:53
Speaker 5: for the Cubs, and that could be an issue. They
39:55
Speaker 5: have to go up against Brandon Woodruff, who is really good.
40:00
Speaker 5: Three ERA point eight nine whip looks really good. Woodroff
40:04
Speaker 5: got hurt at the end of April. He's had injury
40:07
Speaker 5: issues for Charlock. He missed an entire season prior to
40:11
Speaker 5: last season. Last year when he came back, he pitched
40:14
Speaker 5: really well. Again. Whenever he's pitched, kind of like Bieber,
40:17
Speaker 5: Woodroff has been good when he's been healthy, Like throughout
40:19
Speaker 5: his entire career, he's been good. And he came back
40:22
Speaker 5: from injury and he absolutely shredded Cincinnati last time out
40:26
Speaker 5: at Cincinnati, which is a hitter friendly ballparker. I know
40:29
Speaker 5: Cincinnati has been struggling on offense, but he held him
40:33
Speaker 5: to one hit in six innings, didn't allow any runs
40:35
Speaker 5: or walks, and struck out ten. Yeah. Do you think
40:38
Speaker 5: Woodroff is informed right now? Yeah? I would say he is.
40:41
Speaker 5: He came right back from injury and just dominated against
40:45
Speaker 5: the Cubs. He doesn't have great numbers though, to sixty
40:48
Speaker 5: nine batting average allowed, eight twenty seven ops and one
40:52
Speaker 5: hundred and four of bats stregout walk ratio not good either,
40:55
Speaker 5: twenty five to fourteen. So Woodroff doesn't draw the best
40:59
Speaker 5: matchup here. Do I actually think he's gonna pitch bad?
41:04
Speaker 2: No?
41:04
Speaker 5: I don't really think so. I don't know, man, it
41:08
Speaker 5: looks like Milwaukee does have the advantage in the matchup here,
41:11
Speaker 5: but you're paying for it. The odds makers know this,
41:14
Speaker 5: So you are paying like minus two hundred or something.
41:17
Speaker 5: Let me see what's the number on this Where is
41:19
Speaker 5: this game? National League? Where are you here? It is? Yeah,
41:23
Speaker 5: we have money is coming in on Milwaukee though, even
41:25
Speaker 5: though they're about minus one ninety seventy eight percent of
41:28
Speaker 5: tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on them. So
41:31
Speaker 5: money's coming in on Milwaukee. The money is also backing
41:33
Speaker 5: the over. I mean, you could play a Milwaukee run
41:39
Speaker 5: line here, but you know, I mean, I don't know.
41:42
Speaker 5: They seem to have the matchup edge here, but I
41:45
Speaker 5: don't really want to back Woodrooff with his matchup numbers
41:47
Speaker 5: here though the money is backing the over. I mean,
41:50
Speaker 5: I guess you could make the case for the over
41:52
Speaker 5: here Woodroof with not good matchup numbers if he does
41:55
Speaker 5: happen to struggle a little bit and on the other side,
41:57
Speaker 5: you got a bullpen game out out of the Cubs
42:00
Speaker 5: could be looking at an over possibly there. I don't
42:03
Speaker 5: want to really deal with that game though. I mean,
42:05
Speaker 5: Woodroff is just it's one of those situations where you
42:08
Speaker 5: have good pitcher, bad matchups, so it's like which one
42:10
Speaker 5: is gonna happen. I tend to lean more towards good pitcher,
42:14
Speaker 5: you know what I mean. Like Woodroff is so good
42:17
Speaker 5: that I think he can just kind of overcome matchup
42:19
Speaker 5: numbers and at least pitch decent. But I don't know.
42:22
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna play that game though. Colorado at Minnesota,
42:26
Speaker 5: I've been correct about this being an over series. Both
42:30
Speaker 5: games have gone over the total in the series, and
42:33
Speaker 5: it makes sense. I mean, you have two really bad
42:34
Speaker 5: bullpens here. The offenses have been clicking recently as well.
42:39
Speaker 5: Minnesota used three relief pitchers yesterday, Colorado used four. I
42:43
Speaker 5: think each team has a win in the series two,
42:45
Speaker 5: so both teams probably try to win this game here.
42:49
Speaker 5: Let me see Bullpenny ray Wise. Yeah, Minnesota's number twenty
42:55
Speaker 5: nine out of thirty now because the Royals have been
42:57
Speaker 5: so bad recently, they overtook Minnesota for that let spot,
43:00
Speaker 5: but this is a bad Minnesota bullpen. Colorado not much better.
43:04
Speaker 5: At twenty seventh. You got two really bad bullpens that
43:07
Speaker 5: I would look to fade or avoid. Here. Colorado's up
43:10
Speaker 5: to fourth, offensively tied with Washington. I don't think they're
43:14
Speaker 5: that good, but they do have some young hitters that
43:16
Speaker 5: are hot right now, which sounds pretty gay. Maybe it is.
43:21
Speaker 5: Minnesota is number nine. They've been hitting well recently as well.
43:24
Speaker 5: Ryan Feltner is pitching for Colorado here. He's not one
43:28
Speaker 5: of their worst pitchers but he's still not great. Four
43:31
Speaker 5: point seven to ninety array, one point three whip isn't
43:34
Speaker 5: that bad. He's not good on the road though, six
43:36
Speaker 5: point one to seven Roady Ray, so oddly he has
43:39
Speaker 5: a better era in course field, which you don't usually see.
43:44
Speaker 5: He's been okay ish this month, like he's got kind
43:48
Speaker 5: of mediocre numbers, but StrEG out walk ratio is still
43:51
Speaker 5: really bad this month. Sixteen to twelve and twenty one innings.
43:55
Speaker 5: That's way too many walks. That's not gonna cut it.
43:58
Speaker 5: Even though he's not a lot that many runs. Recently,
44:02
Speaker 5: he's got a pretty decent hit rate actually on the season.
44:05
Speaker 5: It's pretty low, but his walk rate is definitely too high.
44:08
Speaker 5: Doesn't strike a lot of guys out either. Feltner against
44:11
Speaker 5: Minnesota the only four hitters who have faced him nine
44:13
Speaker 5: at bats, but they have done damage four forty four average,
44:17
Speaker 5: thirteen to twenty three ops, one strikeout of two walks.
44:22
Speaker 5: I don't think Feltner is going to do particularly well here.
44:25
Speaker 5: Minnesota has the better chance, I think, to get a
44:27
Speaker 5: better starting pitching matchup here from Connor Prelip, who is
44:31
Speaker 5: young and unfamiliar to the opposing bats. But he started
44:35
Speaker 5: to struggle, dude, after he looked good earlier this season.
44:39
Speaker 5: He's still in his rookie season, I think. But he's
44:41
Speaker 5: got a five point one seventy r now one point
44:44
Speaker 5: four to two whip that's not good. He is better
44:46
Speaker 5: at home though, four point one to eight homy ra,
44:49
Speaker 5: so he's got the advantage on the home road splits here.
44:52
Speaker 5: He's been okay in his last couple of starts. Still,
44:55
Speaker 5: his walk number has been really really concerning them. He's
44:58
Speaker 5: also allowed too many hits, more than one per inning.
45:01
Speaker 5: His walk rate is the huge problem though, way too high.
45:05
Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is okay though, so he does fool
45:07
Speaker 5: major league hitters at the very least, and like I said,
45:10
Speaker 5: he's going up against a Rocky team that has never
45:12
Speaker 5: faced him before, so at least he does have that
45:15
Speaker 5: advantage of unfamiliarity. I mean, overall, this game still looks
45:19
Speaker 5: like it's probably an over though obviously if you do,
45:22
Speaker 5: if you do go over, you should go full game
45:24
Speaker 5: with this take advantage of the bullpens totals at nine,
45:28
Speaker 5: which is about what you would expect, sixty percent of tickets,
45:31
Speaker 5: eighty seven percent of the cash on the over money
45:35
Speaker 5: is fading Minnesota to a minus one sixty years. So
45:38
Speaker 5: I think really it's just that the professional money. I mean,
45:41
Speaker 5: they'll like blindly bet almost where they perceive value, and
45:45
Speaker 5: I think it's just, oh, Colorado's always undervalued in the
45:48
Speaker 5: market basically, so just put money on them, you know.
45:52
Speaker 5: But I think you could make the argument from Minnesota
45:54
Speaker 5: first five here, though. I think pre Lip with his
45:57
Speaker 5: unfamiliarity and when he's pitching at his best, he can
46:00
Speaker 5: out pitch Feltner, you know what I mean. He's got
46:02
Speaker 5: the home road splits are against Feltner and they favor
46:05
Speaker 5: pre Lip there, So Minnesota first five makes some sense there.
46:09
Speaker 5: But you might need to lay a half run if
46:12
Speaker 5: you want to do it that way. I think it's
46:14
Speaker 5: probably safer to just go with the over in that game.
46:18
Speaker 5: I am not doing either though. Oh yes, I also
46:21
Speaker 5: forgot sorry, I forgot to put my banner up there
46:23
Speaker 5: with my horrendous recent record. Yes, I apologize. It's been
46:29
Speaker 5: good over that entire span, but recently not good. Kansas
46:33
Speaker 5: City and the White Sox. Here White Sox are about
46:37
Speaker 5: to sweep Kansas City potentially, as they've won both games
46:40
Speaker 5: so far. Kansas City had a shot to win yesterday
46:43
Speaker 5: and they lost the game late. Waka gave them a
46:45
Speaker 5: good start man in Kansas City just couldn't get anything
46:48
Speaker 5: going on offense. Kansas City will be a little bit
46:52
Speaker 5: more motivated here though. They might actually have a pitching
46:55
Speaker 5: edge in this game, believe it or not, so maybe
46:58
Speaker 5: Kansas City can somehow win this game. I don't think
47:01
Speaker 5: they're gonna be looking ahead because they're trying to avoid
47:03
Speaker 5: getting swept by one of the teams that's above them
47:06
Speaker 5: in the division, the White Sox. Who are they playing next?
47:11
Speaker 5: Like is their look ahead component They're playing Baltimore. I
47:14
Speaker 5: don't really know if that's a look ahead or not.
47:17
Speaker 5: Not really probably, but they might overlook Kansas City. After
47:20
Speaker 5: beating them twice and beating them twenty two to one
47:22
Speaker 5: two days ago, White Sox only these two relief pitchers
47:26
Speaker 5: yesterday Kansas City only used two as well. But as
47:28
Speaker 5: I pointed out, Kansas City is dead last in bullpen.
47:32
Speaker 5: This is a very bad bullpen. White Sox are not great,
47:35
Speaker 5: but they're twentieth, so they do have the better bullpen.
47:38
Speaker 5: White Sox are eighth offensively, so they're better there as well.
47:41
Speaker 5: Kansas City twenty first. Kansas City might have a starting
47:45
Speaker 5: pitching advantage, though they're going with Luindo Avila, who his
47:49
Speaker 5: numbers are being skewed a little bit by one really
47:51
Speaker 5: bad start. He's got a five point six cra one
47:55
Speaker 5: point six to two whip. I know that's not good
47:57
Speaker 5: at all, but he's got a one point eight road
48:01
Speaker 5: and that's where he has more of his innings pitched,
48:03
Speaker 5: So that kind of gives you an indicator that there's
48:05
Speaker 5: something skewing his numbers. And yeah, he had won really
48:08
Speaker 5: bad outing where he gave up eight runs and two
48:11
Speaker 5: thirds of an inning against Houston. Since then he's been
48:14
Speaker 5: better again, Like if all the starts surrounding that he's
48:17
Speaker 5: got at least five innings in all of them and
48:18
Speaker 5: allowed one run in each of them. So he's definitely
48:22
Speaker 5: pitched better than that one start against Houston would suggest
48:25
Speaker 5: and what his numbers would suggest. However, he does still
48:28
Speaker 5: walk a lot of guys. So what I think we
48:31
Speaker 5: have with Avila here? I think he's a young guy.
48:33
Speaker 5: I think he's got talent, he's got some strikeout ability,
48:36
Speaker 5: but he walks too many guys. That's his problem. He's
48:39
Speaker 5: got his hit rate is decent enough, his walk right,
48:42
Speaker 5: like I said, is way too high. His strike out
48:44
Speaker 5: rate is okay, so again it's the wildness that is
48:47
Speaker 5: the huge issue with him. The White Sox, though only
48:50
Speaker 5: in his relief appearances, where they do have six at
48:53
Speaker 5: bats against them, and they row for six with two
48:55
Speaker 5: strikeouts and one walk. So there's six hitters who have
48:59
Speaker 5: faced them all in his relief appearances haven't done anything
49:02
Speaker 5: against him. Does that mean he matches up well here?
49:06
Speaker 5: I don't know, maybe, but I think he's a lot
49:09
Speaker 5: better than it looks like. Nobody's gonna want to play
49:12
Speaker 5: on him, and nobody knows who he is. But he's
49:14
Speaker 5: definitely got a way higher ceiling than Anthony Kay who's
49:17
Speaker 5: pitching for the White Sox. I don't think K is
49:20
Speaker 5: very good. I mean, he's just kind of an older
49:23
Speaker 5: dude who's just out there because he is an arm
49:25
Speaker 5: and he's been serviceable. He's got a four point two
49:28
Speaker 5: to four ERA one point three to nine whip that's
49:30
Speaker 5: not bad. He's been good at home two point sixty
49:33
Speaker 5: six homey RA, so you don't really want to fade
49:36
Speaker 5: him when he's at home. But I don't know, man,
49:39
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think he's that good. Really. He
49:41
Speaker 5: did pitch well last time out. We tried to fade
49:43
Speaker 5: him last time out, I think against Cleveland, and he
49:45
Speaker 5: pitched a lot better than I thought he would. Actually,
49:48
Speaker 5: did we fade him in that one, I don't know.
49:49
Speaker 5: I don't remember if we did or not. But he
49:52
Speaker 5: had six shutout innings in that game. But it was
49:54
Speaker 5: against Cleveland, not a good offense. However, Kansas City is
49:57
Speaker 5: also not a good offense. They put up two runs
49:59
Speaker 5: in this series so far. Kid's City has the weakest
50:03
Speaker 5: offense on the road this season, and by the way,
50:05
Speaker 5: k did face them twice this season already, and he
50:09
Speaker 5: was good in both starts, so I don't know if
50:12
Speaker 5: we really want to fade K here. One of those
50:15
Speaker 5: was at home home, one was on the road. K
50:18
Speaker 5: has like a right around one hit a lout per inning,
50:20
Speaker 5: I mean, very mediocre. His walk rate is a little
50:23
Speaker 5: bit too high. His strike out rate is low, he
50:25
Speaker 5: doesn't strike guys out. Numbers against Kids A City are good, though,
50:29
Speaker 5: as I kind of suggested already, twenty eight at bats
50:32
Speaker 5: two fourteen average five forty oh ps five to two
50:35
Speaker 5: strike out walk ratio. I'm laughing because I think the
50:39
Speaker 5: way to play this game might actually be a first
50:41
Speaker 5: five under. Yesterday's game, I know went under. I mean
50:46
Speaker 5: yesterday's game felt like it might be a first five
50:48
Speaker 5: under as well, and it was. It was a full
50:50
Speaker 5: game under as well. This game, the money is backing
50:53
Speaker 5: the over sixty percent of tickets eighty seven percent of
50:56
Speaker 5: the cash on the over total at eight and a half.
50:59
Speaker 5: But I would not go game under. Obviously, these bullpens
51:02
Speaker 5: are unbackable. I mean, Kansas City's is definitely unbackable. But
51:07
Speaker 5: first five under, believe it or not, makes some sense
51:09
Speaker 5: in this game. I think a villa, he's got talent,
51:12
Speaker 5: and K is at least good at home and they
51:16
Speaker 5: have good matchup stats here. So first five under I
51:19
Speaker 5: think makes some sense. You could try to back Kansas
51:22
Speaker 5: City if you want, seventy percent of tickets on the
51:25
Speaker 5: White Sox seventy eight percent of the cash on Kansas City,
51:28
Speaker 5: so the money is back in case here the numbers
51:31
Speaker 5: like minus one thirty something on the White Sox. I
51:34
Speaker 5: actually do agree with Kansas City, but again I would
51:37
Speaker 5: only do it first five innings. You can't back Kansas
51:39
Speaker 5: City's bullpen man. You just can't do it. But I
51:42
Speaker 5: think they might have an edge with a villa over
51:44
Speaker 5: k Like. I just think ceiling like that threshold is
51:48
Speaker 5: just higher from the young guy from a villa. So
51:52
Speaker 5: I think you can grab Kansas City first five at
51:55
Speaker 5: an underdog price. Maybe just let it roll. I'm gonna
51:58
Speaker 5: be right back and then I'm gonna talk Abo the
52:00
Speaker 5: rest of these games. I do have one more baseball play,
52:03
Speaker 5: and I we're gonna give up one w NBA play
52:07
Speaker 5: as well. The White Sox are clearly not winning by
52:10
Speaker 5: one hundred. Kansas City definitely has a shot to win
52:13
Speaker 5: this game. If they lose, I think it's more like
52:17
Speaker 5: it's probably gonna because their bullpen doesn't do well. All right,
52:21
Speaker 5: I'll be right back. All right, hopefully my voice is
53:36
Speaker 5: a little bit better right now, I have to rest it.
53:42
Speaker 5: I don't know, man, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for
53:47
Speaker 5: hanging out. Miami and Saint Louis here. Uh, Saint Louis
53:54
Speaker 5: on the verge of getting swept here. Miami has remained
53:56
Speaker 5: hot throughout this series. I thought Saint Louis Is gonna
53:59
Speaker 5: get the game two days ago, and that did not happen.
54:04
Speaker 5: You know, this pitching matchup is pretty gross. In this
54:06
Speaker 5: matchup here, maybe Miami is gonna look ahead here, or
54:10
Speaker 5: at least overlooks Saint Louis because Miami's on the version
54:12
Speaker 5: of a road sweep here. Although I don't think Saint
54:15
Speaker 5: Louis is as good as the record looks. Miami only
54:18
Speaker 5: goes to Colorado next, so that's not exactly a look ahead.
54:22
Speaker 5: But Saint Louis home team on the version getting swept.
54:26
Speaker 5: You know, I keep pointing out those home teams on
54:28
Speaker 5: the version getting swept. They're a decent situational angle to
54:31
Speaker 5: look at. But I have to factor in the matchup
54:34
Speaker 5: to you know what I mean. Miami used four relief
54:37
Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday, which might not be good because they're going
54:39
Speaker 5: with a bullpen game today. Saint Louis used two relief pitchers.
54:44
Speaker 5: Miami has the better bullpen. They're number two, so they've
54:47
Speaker 5: done okay with some of these bullpen games. But I mean,
54:50
Speaker 5: I'm old school, so I don't love them. Maybe they
54:53
Speaker 5: do okay with their bullpen game today, but maybe they don't.
54:57
Speaker 5: Saint Louis is a twenty second in bullpen.
55:00
Speaker 2: Now.
55:00
Speaker 5: I think they're a little bit better than that, but
55:02
Speaker 5: they're not great. So Miami does have the better bullpen,
55:05
Speaker 5: but their bullpen's gonna be pitching the whole game. Offensively,
55:10
Speaker 5: Miami's eighteenth, Saint Louis is sixteen, so we have mediocre
55:13
Speaker 5: ish offenses. Miami has Tyler Phillips listed as the starter
55:19
Speaker 5: as usual. I mean we see his name out there
55:21
Speaker 5: a lot. That means it's a bullpen game. However, he's
55:24
Speaker 5: actually been going deeper into some of these starts, so
55:28
Speaker 5: you might actually get like four to five innings out
55:30
Speaker 5: of him here. He's got a three point zero nine
55:32
Speaker 5: ERA pretty good, although his whip is not good one
55:35
Speaker 5: point three seven. I don't think he's actually that good.
55:37
Speaker 5: He's not good on the road six point eight six roadra.
55:41
Speaker 5: He did actually go six innings last time out against Texas.
55:45
Speaker 5: He looks decent in some of these starts, but he's
55:48
Speaker 5: alternating good and bad. That would mean that his start
55:51
Speaker 5: here is gonna be bad if it does continue to alternate.
55:54
Speaker 5: He's got sixteen to eleven strikeout walk ratio over this
55:57
Speaker 5: span this month, though, so he's not what he looks
55:59
Speaker 5: like like. His walk rate is way too high, so
56:02
Speaker 5: his ERRA definitely should be higher than it is. He's
56:05
Speaker 5: got a really high walk rate on the season. His
56:07
Speaker 5: strikeout rates not very good either. His hit rate is
56:10
Speaker 5: pretty good. He hasn't allowed that many hits, but other
56:13
Speaker 5: than that, he's not really that good man. He did
56:15
Speaker 5: have three scoreless endings at home against Saint Louis earlier
56:18
Speaker 5: this year, so he did pitch well against them, so
56:21
Speaker 5: this might be an okay matchup for him. It's a
56:23
Speaker 5: pitcher friendly park on the road here. He's got a
56:28
Speaker 5: two seventy three average allowed to Saint Louis in only
56:30
Speaker 5: eleven at bats, though five point forty five ops that
56:33
Speaker 5: is quite low. They haven't had any extra base hits
56:35
Speaker 5: against him. Four zero strikeout walk ratio. Again, it's hard
56:40
Speaker 5: to gauge what you're gonna get out of him here.
56:42
Speaker 5: He might actually pitch okay and Kyle Lay he is
56:45
Speaker 5: pitching for Saint Louis. He's not good four point twenty
56:48
Speaker 5: four ERA, but his whip is awful one point five
56:52
Speaker 5: to one. Definitely suggested that his ERA should be higher
56:54
Speaker 5: than that, although he is better at least at home
56:57
Speaker 5: three point twenty nine homey ra I still don't trust him,
57:01
Speaker 5: although he's actually been okay this month, even though his
57:05
Speaker 5: team has been losing most of his starts. He's been
57:09
Speaker 5: decent en off in his last two starts, with a
57:11
Speaker 5: ten to three strikeout walk ratio, allowing only three runs
57:14
Speaker 5: over his last twelve and a third innings. One was
57:16
Speaker 5: one of those starts is against San Diego, though, but
57:19
Speaker 5: then he did allow no runs against Arizona after that.
57:22
Speaker 5: Both of those are at home, where he is here today.
57:26
Speaker 5: He's got a high hit rate, though his walk rate
57:28
Speaker 5: is not great either, and his strikeout rate is kind
57:31
Speaker 5: of low, so there's not really a lot to like
57:33
Speaker 5: about him here. Miami doesn't have great numbers against him
57:37
Speaker 5: two seventy eight average. Also, no extra base hits, and
57:41
Speaker 5: just contact from them six twenty eight ops, three to
57:44
Speaker 5: two strikeout walk ratio. I don't know what do we
57:47
Speaker 5: do with I have no idea what we do with
57:49
Speaker 5: this game, Like on the service first to me, looked
57:52
Speaker 5: like it would be an over, and the total is high,
57:56
Speaker 5: it's at nine, and the money is backing the over
57:59
Speaker 5: sixty three percent of tickets on the under seventy eight
58:01
Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the over. But looking at
58:03
Speaker 5: those pitching matchup numbers, you might get better pitching than
58:08
Speaker 5: maybe it looks like you're gonna get on the surface,
58:10
Speaker 5: because like just service level, I looked and I was like, yeah,
58:12
Speaker 5: that looks like it's an over. But digging into it
58:16
Speaker 5: a little bit, maybe not Like I don't I definitely
58:19
Speaker 5: don't want to put my money on it. The money
58:21
Speaker 5: is saying over here, do with that info what you want?
58:25
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't even know. Maybe I don't even
58:27
Speaker 5: know if I lean that way or not. Seventy two
58:30
Speaker 5: percent of tickets and cash on Saint Louis, they're at
58:33
Speaker 5: about minus one thirty here, So Saint Louis is a
58:36
Speaker 5: public side even though they're trying to avoid the sweep
58:38
Speaker 5: peer and you'd think Miami would be a little bit
58:40
Speaker 5: public because they're hot right now. Situationally, I would have
58:45
Speaker 5: to lean to Saint Louis to try to get this
58:46
Speaker 5: thing done, but you know, to avoid the sweep. But
58:50
Speaker 5: I can't back lay he either though, although he is
58:53
Speaker 5: more backable at home. But it's gonna take a lot
58:56
Speaker 5: for me to actually back lay he if I ever
58:58
Speaker 5: do this. Next this game up A's and Anaheim on Peacock,
59:02
Speaker 5: this will be my other play. It's a total and
59:10
Speaker 5: I know we got screwed on the first five under
59:12
Speaker 5: in this series the other day, so why not get
59:14
Speaker 5: screwed by going over in this game? There were no
59:17
Speaker 5: nines out there. You have to go over nine and
59:19
Speaker 5: a half, so I know we have the hook there.
59:21
Speaker 5: So that's not as good as nine. Nine is a
59:24
Speaker 5: key number, as I point out, because every odd number
59:27
Speaker 5: in baseball totals is key because you have to break
59:30
Speaker 5: the tie. But still, I think this is an over game.
59:33
Speaker 5: I think we can get this thing done. There's a
59:35
Speaker 5: lot to like about the over just in this series
59:38
Speaker 5: in general. I mean, both bullpens stinks, so that helps.
59:41
Speaker 5: Yesterday's game went under. The first game went overall tho
59:44
Speaker 5: was because of one crazy inning, So this really hasn't
59:48
Speaker 5: been that high scoring of a series, but this matchup
59:50
Speaker 5: looks like it's going to be high scoring to me. Obviously,
59:54
Speaker 5: we're fading the bullpens. Don't like the bullpens at all.
59:57
Speaker 5: Anaheim used four guys yesterday. The A's used four as well.
1:00:02
Speaker 5: We're looking at ugly bullpens. So the A's are twenty third,
1:00:05
Speaker 5: but they also are one of the three or four
1:00:07
Speaker 5: bullpen five bullpens now that have a five plus ra.
1:00:11
Speaker 5: Anaheim's actually not as bad even though they're at twenty fifth,
1:00:14
Speaker 5: but there's still not a trustworthy bullpen at all. Hitting wise,
1:00:17
Speaker 5: the A's have been good. They're tied in six with
1:00:19
Speaker 5: the Cubs Angels in the mid range at seventeenth. I
1:00:24
Speaker 5: think both team's gonna get some offense going though. We're
1:00:27
Speaker 5: gonna fade Aaron Savali, even though I tried to back
1:00:30
Speaker 5: him in his last outing and he is somewhat backable
1:00:33
Speaker 5: on the road, but I don't think this is a
1:00:35
Speaker 5: good matchup for him here. His overall numbers stink as
1:00:38
Speaker 5: well four point eight eight ERA, but his whip is
1:00:40
Speaker 5: awful one point five eight. I mean, he's not good,
1:00:44
Speaker 5: but We know he gets hurt by having a pitch
1:00:46
Speaker 5: in that A's stadium, so his era on the road
1:00:48
Speaker 5: is way better at three point three four, But I
1:00:52
Speaker 5: still don't like this matchup for him. He wasn't even
1:00:54
Speaker 5: that good in his last outing where we tried to
1:00:56
Speaker 5: back him on the road to get San Francisco. He
1:00:58
Speaker 5: only lasted four in He threw way too many pitches,
1:01:01
Speaker 5: so he did have five strikeouts no walks, which is
1:01:04
Speaker 5: pretty good. He allowed two runs but on six hits.
1:01:08
Speaker 5: I don't know, man, It's not good when you don't
1:01:09
Speaker 5: pitch efficiently on the road against a weak offense like
1:01:12
Speaker 5: San Francisco. So I don't think he's trustworthy. In his
1:01:16
Speaker 5: previous road start, guess what it was. It was here
1:01:19
Speaker 5: in Anaheim, and he gave up three on runs to them,
1:01:21
Speaker 5: gave up five runs and five innings to to two
1:01:24
Speaker 5: strike out walk radio. Yeah, he got a little bit unlucky,
1:01:27
Speaker 5: I guess because he allowed only five hits. But he
1:01:30
Speaker 5: wasn't good in that outing, and I think that might
1:01:33
Speaker 5: continue here.
1:01:34
Speaker 2: Man.
1:01:34
Speaker 5: He just doesn't have good matchup numbers against Anaheim. They
1:01:37
Speaker 5: have a two ninety six average eight ninety six ops
1:01:40
Speaker 5: against him, fourteen to two strike out walk radio is good.
1:01:43
Speaker 5: I mean he's got decent command numbers. But other than that,
1:01:48
Speaker 5: I mean they hit him hard. His numbers are not
1:01:50
Speaker 5: good against them, fifty four at bats overall. If you
1:01:53
Speaker 5: look at his numbers, I mean he's got a low
1:01:55
Speaker 5: strikeout rate. His walk rate is okay, his hit rate
1:01:58
Speaker 5: is really high. So he does just allow way too
1:02:00
Speaker 5: many hits. It's not just the home runs that get him,
1:02:03
Speaker 5: although that makes him worse at home because he is
1:02:05
Speaker 5: a fly ball pitcher. But Anaheim is also a somewhat
1:02:08
Speaker 5: hitter friendly ballpark, so this isn't exactly the best environment
1:02:12
Speaker 5: for him. Not every road environment is the same. And
1:02:16
Speaker 5: then we're also gonna fade the other side of this.
1:02:19
Speaker 5: Sam Aldegary pitching for Anaheim. I mean, he's still young,
1:02:23
Speaker 5: so he's got it. You know, he's got some time
1:02:25
Speaker 5: to turn his career around, but it has not happen yet.
1:02:28
Speaker 5: Five point four to seventy RA, one point five whip.
1:02:31
Speaker 5: This is not good. He's been better at home, so
1:02:33
Speaker 5: I know we're fading the home road splits here. He's
1:02:35
Speaker 5: got a three point six homey RA, but his numbers
1:02:38
Speaker 5: still are bad. Like he's got a fourteen to nine
1:02:41
Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio this month and nineteen innings. That's not good.
1:02:45
Speaker 5: He's allowed one hit per inning. He's failed to make
1:02:47
Speaker 5: it five innings and the majority of these outings. I mean,
1:02:51
Speaker 5: this is just not good stuff here wasn't good in
1:02:53
Speaker 5: his last couple of ownings. He has not faced the
1:02:55
Speaker 5: A's this year, but just overall, I mean, his numbers stink.
1:03:00
Speaker 5: High hit rate, high walk rate, low strike yeah, low
1:03:03
Speaker 5: strikeout rate. Not a lot to like. And and the
1:03:07
Speaker 5: A's haven't seen him, I know, except for Heim, who
1:03:10
Speaker 5: is one for one with a single and a walk
1:03:12
Speaker 5: off him. But even so, I don't think he's gonna
1:03:15
Speaker 5: pitch that well here. Man, the A's have a good lineup.
1:03:17
Speaker 5: I think they could definitely get to him for some runs.
1:03:20
Speaker 5: This total is high for a reason. It's at nine
1:03:23
Speaker 5: and a half. Like I said, the money is coming
1:03:26
Speaker 5: in on the over fifty nine percent of tickets on
1:03:28
Speaker 5: the over ninety one percent of the cash on the over.
1:03:30
Speaker 5: So the money is agreeing with both of my baseball
1:03:33
Speaker 5: plays here and my WNBA play I'm gonna get out,
1:03:36
Speaker 5: So over nine and a half in Anaheim and the
1:03:41
Speaker 5: A's is my play there all right, no more baseball plays,
1:03:45
Speaker 5: although we have some big name teams playing in these
1:03:47
Speaker 5: last few games here. Every game is in the afternoon
1:03:50
Speaker 5: except for the night game of course, Sunday night. There's
1:03:54
Speaker 5: just one Sunday night game, which is no longer an
1:03:57
Speaker 5: ESPN game. Atlanta at San Francisco. This was like a
1:04:00
Speaker 5: pretty big pitching advantage to Atlanta here these teams to
1:04:05
Speaker 5: split the series. San Francisco with a five nothing win yesterday.
1:04:09
Speaker 5: Bryce Elder not pitching well. Man, I'm kind of mad
1:04:13
Speaker 5: because that I liked that starting pitching matchup. Man, it
1:04:16
Speaker 5: was just Logan Webb didn't have good numbers against Atlanta,
1:04:20
Speaker 5: so I worried about it. Web was awesome in the
1:04:22
Speaker 5: game yesterday and Elder was awful, So I should have
1:04:26
Speaker 5: just gone with my gut on that. My gut was
1:04:28
Speaker 5: telling me Web is gonna outpitch Elder man. Anyway, Atlanta
1:04:33
Speaker 5: saved their whole bullpen though, because they used Grant Homes
1:04:35
Speaker 5: for the last four innings of that game yesterday. So
1:04:38
Speaker 5: Atlanta has a really good bullpen and it's rested. San
1:04:41
Speaker 5: Francisco's bullpen hasn't been great. They used two guys out
1:04:45
Speaker 5: of the bullpen though, so they're a little bit rested
1:04:47
Speaker 5: as well. San Francisco ranked twenty fourth in bullpen. They're
1:04:50
Speaker 5: better than that though, Like all the teams around them
1:04:52
Speaker 5: have really bad numbers. San Francisco not quite that bad.
1:04:56
Speaker 5: So I think San Francisco is more of a mid
1:04:58
Speaker 5: tier bullpen. Atlanta is the best bullpen in baseball, so
1:05:04
Speaker 5: they have that going for them. Atlanta has gone a
1:05:06
Speaker 5: little bit down in offense. They're all the way down
1:05:09
Speaker 5: to fourteenth now Giants are twelfth, but I don't buy that.
1:05:12
Speaker 5: As you know, I don't think the Giants are a
1:05:14
Speaker 5: good offense. Those numbers are being skewed by a couple
1:05:17
Speaker 5: of those huge offensive performances they had. I think at
1:05:21
Speaker 5: least one of them was in course field. Whatever. Not
1:05:24
Speaker 5: a good offense. They've come down to earth. I think
1:05:26
Speaker 5: Atlanta is the better of the two offenses here. Starting pitching.
1:05:30
Speaker 5: Chris Sale who's pitching for Atlanta, so typically he's gonna
1:05:34
Speaker 5: be your edge in the starting pitching there, you're gonna
1:05:37
Speaker 5: have the edge and starting pitching. If he's on the
1:05:38
Speaker 5: mound two point one four ERA one point zero five
1:05:42
Speaker 5: whip from him, he's still pitching well. Not as good
1:05:44
Speaker 5: on the Road three point one six Roady Ray. But
1:05:48
Speaker 5: even so, that's still pretty good, and he gets a
1:05:50
Speaker 5: pretty weak offense to match up against here. Sale is
1:05:53
Speaker 5: still pitching well recently. He's facing pretty good offenses recently too,
1:05:57
Speaker 5: Milwaukee White Sox, so this is gonna be a little
1:05:59
Speaker 5: bit of a step down after those two outings. He's
1:06:03
Speaker 5: got a low hit rate, pretty low walk rate, high
1:06:05
Speaker 5: strikeout rate, all the things that you like to see.
1:06:08
Speaker 5: Numbers against San Francisco are also good. They only have
1:06:11
Speaker 5: six hitters who have faced him fifty five at bats though,
1:06:14
Speaker 5: nineteen strikeouts, two walks, one twenty seven average four to
1:06:18
Speaker 5: sixty seven oh ps. So yeah, he basically dominates San Francisco.
1:06:24
Speaker 5: San Francisco is going with Robbie Ray, who I don't
1:06:26
Speaker 5: really trust. All of his numbers overall are not that bad.
1:06:30
Speaker 5: He pitched well for a large chunk of the season
1:06:33
Speaker 5: last year and was an All star. Three point seventy
1:06:36
Speaker 5: RA one point two eight whip. That's still not great
1:06:40
Speaker 5: in the whip department, but it's not horrible. He is
1:06:43
Speaker 5: good at home two point nine to three homey RA,
1:06:46
Speaker 5: and he's pitched well his last two outings really well.
1:06:49
Speaker 5: Three of his last four outings have been all right,
1:06:51
Speaker 5: and San Francisco's actually won his last six outings, and
1:06:55
Speaker 5: he actually just faced Atlanta back on June sixteenth in
1:06:59
Speaker 5: Atlanta shut them out for six and a third innings
1:07:02
Speaker 5: with eight strikeouts, two walks, two hits allowed. Atlanta is
1:07:06
Speaker 5: actually weaker at home on offense, so maybe that helped
1:07:09
Speaker 5: Ray out a little bit. But ray and then followed
1:07:11
Speaker 5: it up with a pretty good outing against the A's,
1:07:14
Speaker 5: shutting them out for or not shutting them out. But
1:07:16
Speaker 5: he allowed no earned runs in eight innings with only
1:07:20
Speaker 5: two hits allowed. But his walk number was too high,
1:07:22
Speaker 5: so there are some still some issues here. He's got
1:07:25
Speaker 5: a twenty one to eleven strike out walk race here
1:07:27
Speaker 5: this month, so the walk numbers not good there. Thirteen
1:07:32
Speaker 5: hits allowed in twenty five innings is good, though you
1:07:35
Speaker 5: look at his overall numbers. His overall numbers kind of
1:07:38
Speaker 5: reflect all of that. He's got a low hit rate,
1:07:40
Speaker 5: high walk rate, strike out rate is okay ish, but
1:07:45
Speaker 5: he does have good numbers against the Braves, not just
1:07:47
Speaker 5: that most recent outing, but eighty two at bats against them.
1:07:51
Speaker 5: They have not succeeded against him, one seventy one average,
1:07:54
Speaker 5: five sixty six ops thirty one to ten strike out
1:07:57
Speaker 5: walk ratio. So I think both pitchs actually look good
1:08:01
Speaker 5: in this game. I would go under in this game.
1:08:06
Speaker 5: You're you're gonna have to pay too much for Chris Sale.
1:08:09
Speaker 5: There's never a sale on Sale until you know his
1:08:12
Speaker 5: career basically ends. You're paying about minus one fifty something
1:08:17
Speaker 5: for Anna for Atlanta here if you want to play them,
1:08:19
Speaker 5: eighty four percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the
1:08:21
Speaker 5: cash on them. I want to go that way. Like
1:08:24
Speaker 5: I said, I like the under here the total seven
1:08:26
Speaker 5: and a half. Can you trust San Francisco's bullpen? I
1:08:31
Speaker 5: don't know. I mean I like seeing that under seven
1:08:33
Speaker 5: and a half in the full game, though I would
1:08:35
Speaker 5: prefer that over the first five three and a half. Really,
1:08:39
Speaker 5: I think maybe you suck it up and do it
1:08:40
Speaker 5: because San Francisco's bullpen is at least better than what
1:08:44
Speaker 5: their ranking suggests, and Atlanta is the best bullpen, so
1:08:48
Speaker 5: that can kind of help counter that a little bit.
1:08:51
Speaker 5: Both starting pitchers I think might actually do well here.
1:08:54
Speaker 5: So even Robbie Ray, yes, money is backing the over,
1:08:58
Speaker 5: though fifty on the under, eighty one percent of the
1:09:01
Speaker 5: cash on the over, but I like the under in
1:09:04
Speaker 5: that game. I think that's the way that I would
1:09:05
Speaker 5: play that game. Next game up almost made my card.
1:09:09
Speaker 5: This is probably the next one I was gonna add
1:09:11
Speaker 5: if I was gonna make a play here, which is
1:09:13
Speaker 5: Dodgers at San Diego. San Diego got killed yesterday fifteen
1:09:18
Speaker 5: to three after they won seven to one in the
1:09:20
Speaker 5: first game of this series. Is gonna be a big,
1:09:23
Speaker 5: big game. It's for who wins the series. But I
1:09:27
Speaker 5: think you're gonna get more motivation out of San Diego
1:09:29
Speaker 5: because how much do the Dodgers care when they have
1:09:32
Speaker 5: a big lead over San Diego in the division. Anyway,
1:09:36
Speaker 5: san Diego kind of needs the game more. San Diego's
1:09:39
Speaker 5: got the better bullpen. They did use three guys out
1:09:41
Speaker 5: of the bullpen, but it was none of their better
1:09:43
Speaker 5: relief pitchers, so all of San Diego's high leverage arms
1:09:46
Speaker 5: are available here. Dodgers use three guys out of their
1:09:49
Speaker 5: bullpen yesterday. San Diego is basically an elite bullpen. They're
1:09:53
Speaker 5: ranked seventh, but they're much better than that. They have
1:09:55
Speaker 5: the second best Bullpenny r Ray. I'm pretty sure, No,
1:09:59
Speaker 5: actually fifth, No, fourth, I can't I can't figure it, yeah, fourth,
1:10:04
Speaker 5: It's all close. Though. Dodgers are ranked fifth in bullpen,
1:10:09
Speaker 5: but their e ray is higher than all these teams
1:10:11
Speaker 5: around them. They're still not a bad bullpen, but I
1:10:13
Speaker 5: think san Diego's is better. Dodgers have a huge offensive
1:10:17
Speaker 5: edge though they're number one. San Diego is dead last thirtieth.
1:10:22
Speaker 5: But this starting pitching matchup, I like san Diego here. Man,
1:10:25
Speaker 5: this starting pitching matchup favored San Diego, and so does
1:10:28
Speaker 5: the bullpen Emmett She and his pitching for the Dodgers,
1:10:32
Speaker 5: and well, I think he is talented. I don't think
1:10:34
Speaker 5: he's He's as bad as his five point three to
1:10:36
Speaker 5: two era looks. One point three whip is still not
1:10:40
Speaker 5: really that good. He's been worse on the road five
1:10:43
Speaker 5: point five eight road rail though I know this is
1:10:46
Speaker 5: San Diego, so you'd figure, well, it's at San Diego.
1:10:49
Speaker 5: It's a pitcher friendly park. He should pitch better here, right,
1:10:53
Speaker 5: Maybe not, because the last time he pitched here back
1:10:55
Speaker 5: in May, he only went four innings and he allowed
1:10:58
Speaker 5: four and runs on five. It's two strikeouts, one walk.
1:11:01
Speaker 5: He gave up two of them runs, so maybe he
1:11:03
Speaker 5: got a little unlucky, but that was not a good
1:11:06
Speaker 5: start from him, although the Dodgers wound up winning the game,
1:11:09
Speaker 5: but he was not good in that outing. The bullpen
1:11:12
Speaker 5: kind of saved him there. The Dodgers have lost his
1:11:15
Speaker 5: last four starts. That's not a good sign when you're
1:11:18
Speaker 5: pitching for the best offense in baseball and you got
1:11:21
Speaker 5: a decent bullpen backing you up, too, and you lose
1:11:24
Speaker 5: that many games in a row. He's lost all four
1:11:26
Speaker 5: of them. He's not a good form here, man. He's
1:11:28
Speaker 5: failed to go four innings in two of the four.
1:11:31
Speaker 5: Not good stuff. Although granted san Diego is not as
1:11:34
Speaker 5: good of an offense, but all right, san Diego, they're
1:11:37
Speaker 5: not as good as of an offense. So they have
1:11:39
Speaker 5: a two to eighty batting average against him, eight sixty
1:11:42
Speaker 5: eight ops in twenty five at best. So san Diego
1:11:45
Speaker 5: has been able to hit him four strikeouts, one walk.
1:11:48
Speaker 5: So he's not a good form. San Diego hits him. Well,
1:11:52
Speaker 5: why am I not playing san Diego here? Well, I
1:11:57
Speaker 5: just worry. I worry a little bit about Michael King's matchup. No, man,
1:12:00
Speaker 5: that's really the only thing. King looks good though, I mean,
1:12:03
Speaker 5: he's he is good. He's got a three point three
1:12:05
Speaker 5: to three ERA one point one six whip. He's good
1:12:08
Speaker 5: at home two point eighty seven home ra really good
1:12:11
Speaker 5: last time out, shut out the Braves for seven innings.
1:12:15
Speaker 5: That is not easy to do. Also with no walks.
1:12:18
Speaker 5: He struggled a bit in the start before that against
1:12:21
Speaker 5: Saint Louis on the road. I don't know what that was.
1:12:23
Speaker 5: But mostly he's been pitching well enough. I guess, well,
1:12:28
Speaker 5: I don't know, man. I mean, he's been a little
1:12:29
Speaker 5: bit worse over the last month or so, but he's
1:12:32
Speaker 5: still pitching well overall. He's got a low hit rate,
1:12:35
Speaker 5: his walk rate is not horrible, and his strikeout rate
1:12:40
Speaker 5: is low though, which does worry me a little bit.
1:12:41
Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on, because King, I think,
1:12:44
Speaker 5: usually strikes out more guys than he is this year.
1:12:47
Speaker 5: His numbers against the Dodgers are a little bit questionable here,
1:12:50
Speaker 5: which is what worries me. Eighty six at bats two
1:12:52
Speaker 5: forty four average is not bad, but an eight thirty
1:12:55
Speaker 5: nine ohps. They've hit him for some power here, man,
1:12:58
Speaker 5: but it's mostly just Bets and Otani. They have six
1:13:02
Speaker 5: of the seven home runs that the Dodgers have hit
1:13:04
Speaker 5: off of him, So these numbers are kind of lopsided
1:13:08
Speaker 5: towards two guys, and he might be able to pitch
1:13:10
Speaker 5: around those two guys that hit him well. Although also
1:13:14
Speaker 5: you could look at some player props here if you
1:13:16
Speaker 5: want to go with Bets or Otani, you know, hits
1:13:19
Speaker 5: plus runs plus RBIs over or whatever, you could do
1:13:23
Speaker 5: that twenty to nine strike out walk ratio. That's not
1:13:28
Speaker 5: good either for King against the Dodgers. So I'm gonna
1:13:31
Speaker 5: lay off this game, but I was close to it.
1:13:34
Speaker 5: I like San Diego in this one, man, I would
1:13:37
Speaker 5: take San Diego on the money line if I was
1:13:38
Speaker 5: gonna play this game. Dodgers, you know their favorite. The
1:13:41
Speaker 5: Dodgers are at like minus one forty here, so you
1:13:43
Speaker 5: can get a decent money line on San Diego here
1:13:46
Speaker 5: eighty two percent of the tickets on the Dodgers. The
1:13:49
Speaker 5: public is just playing the Dodgers here, seventy two percent
1:13:52
Speaker 5: of the money on San Diego. Though the money is
1:13:54
Speaker 5: backing san Diego, I agree with it. Money's also backing
1:13:58
Speaker 5: the over. I don't think I would disagree with that.
1:14:01
Speaker 5: I mean, you saw both starting pitchers don't really have
1:14:03
Speaker 5: good matchup numbers here, so it over makes some sense there.
1:14:07
Speaker 5: Although it is a more It is a very pitcher
1:14:10
Speaker 5: friendly park though, But yeah, over makes some sense. But
1:14:13
Speaker 5: I would prefer the San Diego side there to get
1:14:16
Speaker 5: that thing done. Although with a home underdog, a lower
1:14:21
Speaker 5: scoring game probably helps the whole underdogs cause a little
1:14:24
Speaker 5: bit more So, those two things kind of seem in
1:14:26
Speaker 5: conflict with each other a little bit. And then we
1:14:29
Speaker 5: have Yankees in the Red Sox. The Yankees are trying
1:14:32
Speaker 5: to avoid a four game sweet peer. The Red Sox
1:14:34
Speaker 5: have won all three games in the series so far.
1:14:38
Speaker 5: Red Sox, you know, I mean, their pitching has been good.
1:14:40
Speaker 5: They've had ten quality starts in a row out of
1:14:43
Speaker 5: their starters. It's just the Red Sox offense has not
1:14:46
Speaker 5: been able to do anything really, although they've been a
1:14:50
Speaker 5: little bit better in this series, which has helped them out.
1:14:53
Speaker 5: This game is on NBC and Peacock. Can the Red
1:14:56
Speaker 5: Sox complete the sweet Peer? I mean, I don't want
1:15:01
Speaker 5: to bank on it. Though Red Sox use three relief
1:15:05
Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday, they are good bullpen the Yankees have also
1:15:09
Speaker 5: been good, though Yankees used three as well. I'm looking
1:15:12
Speaker 5: at the bullpens. The Red Sox are fourth, Yankees are six,
1:15:15
Speaker 5: and their e Rays are really close now, uh, they're
1:15:18
Speaker 5: top They're both top three in Bullpenny Rays now, so
1:15:23
Speaker 5: they're both really close. The Yankees are the way better
1:15:25
Speaker 5: offense at number two, although their offense hasn't done well
1:15:28
Speaker 5: in this series. Red Sox twenty third, so there is
1:15:32
Speaker 5: still a big edge there for the Yankees, although the
1:15:34
Speaker 5: Red Sox have moved up a little bit uh recently.
1:15:38
Speaker 5: Carlos Rodon is pitching for the Yankees. He's decent three
1:15:43
Speaker 5: point seventy RA, one point two eight whip is kind
1:15:46
Speaker 5: of high. He isn't as good on the road four
1:15:49
Speaker 5: point twenty six road RA road on. He gets owned
1:15:54
Speaker 5: on the road. Is that what that means? I don't know.
1:15:56
Speaker 5: The Yankees have won his last five starts though, so
1:15:58
Speaker 5: he came back later in the season because he was
1:16:01
Speaker 5: injured at the start of the season. Yankees lost his
1:16:04
Speaker 5: first three starts, but since then they haven't lost any
1:16:06
Speaker 5: of them. They've won five in a row. So he's
1:16:09
Speaker 5: pitching alright, and the Yankees are giving him some run
1:16:11
Speaker 5: support as well. Yeah, he's pitching okay. Like his hit
1:16:16
Speaker 5: rate is pretty low. His walk rate is definitely too high,
1:16:18
Speaker 5: though strike out rate is also high. So his problem
1:16:21
Speaker 5: is the walks, you know, typical, that's his one issue.
1:16:26
Speaker 5: The numbers against the Red Sox are pretty good to
1:16:29
Speaker 5: twenty seven average a lot as low. Seven to nineteen
1:16:32
Speaker 5: ops is not as low as you would think, because
1:16:34
Speaker 5: even though the Red Sox don't really hit him for average,
1:16:37
Speaker 5: they do a four home runs off him on eighteen
1:16:40
Speaker 5: to seven strike at walk ratio too. So again, the
1:16:43
Speaker 5: walk numbers have kind of hurt him a little bit
1:16:45
Speaker 5: against the Red Sox, so he doesn't dominate the Red Sox,
1:16:48
Speaker 5: but he does have the upper hand somewhat against the
1:16:51
Speaker 5: Red Sox. Red Sox still are not a good offense
1:16:54
Speaker 5: as well, and they're not good at home still, although
1:16:57
Speaker 5: again they've been a little bit better over the last
1:16:59
Speaker 5: few weeks. Red Soxs are going with Sonny Gray. Sonny
1:17:03
Speaker 5: Gray having a good season, and he's been in good
1:17:05
Speaker 5: recent form too. He's got a two point nine to
1:17:07
Speaker 5: five ERA, one point one to nine whip. He's been
1:17:10
Speaker 5: good at home two point six to one homey Ra
1:17:13
Speaker 5: had eleven strikeouts last time out in Coors Field and
1:17:16
Speaker 5: held Colorado to one and run in seven innings. Went
1:17:19
Speaker 5: seven innings in the prior start against Toronto, was good
1:17:22
Speaker 5: in both those starts. He did face the Yankees on
1:17:25
Speaker 5: June fifth in New York. He was okay in that outing,
1:17:29
Speaker 5: held him to three earned runs. He picked up a
1:17:30
Speaker 5: win in that outing. I went six and a third innings,
1:17:33
Speaker 5: three strikeouts, two walks. He wasn't great, but he was
1:17:36
Speaker 5: good enough for the Red Sox to get the win there.
1:17:39
Speaker 5: And it's not an easy task after go into the
1:17:41
Speaker 5: Bronx and pitch there. His numbers against the Yankees are
1:17:44
Speaker 5: overall pretty good. In one hundred and two at bats,
1:17:47
Speaker 5: two forty five average, six seventy five ops. Strikeout walk
1:17:51
Speaker 5: ratio is not good, though usually Gray does have a
1:17:54
Speaker 5: good strike out walk ratio, but twenty five to twelve
1:17:57
Speaker 5: there against the Yankees, that's not good. His overall numbers
1:18:01
Speaker 5: on the season low hit rate, his walk rate is decent,
1:18:03
Speaker 5: strike out rates a little bit low. I mean he's
1:18:06
Speaker 5: getting up there in age, so he doesn't really strike
1:18:08
Speaker 5: many guys out anymore. I think this game has more
1:18:12
Speaker 5: indicators towards an under and I feel like I've said
1:18:14
Speaker 5: that in every game in this series, and every game,
1:18:17
Speaker 5: or I think every game has gone under right, or
1:18:20
Speaker 5: at least most of them have gone under. Yeah, I
1:18:23
Speaker 5: don't know, man, I feel like I've said that every time,
1:18:26
Speaker 5: Like I've leaned to the under throughout this series, haven't
1:18:30
Speaker 5: given it out as a play in any of them,
1:18:32
Speaker 5: and I think at least two of the three games
1:18:34
Speaker 5: have gone under. The money's backing the over here, but
1:18:37
Speaker 5: I don't agree with that. The totals at eight, which
1:18:39
Speaker 5: is a pretty reasonable total. I mean, it's a reasonable
1:18:42
Speaker 5: total whether you want to go over or under. It's
1:18:44
Speaker 5: one of those just throw up the total kind of
1:18:47
Speaker 5: in the middle there. It is slightly juiced to the
1:18:49
Speaker 5: under though, fifty four tickets sixty three percent of the
1:18:52
Speaker 5: cash on the over. But yeah, I like the under
1:18:55
Speaker 5: better than anything else here. I think the pitching might
1:18:58
Speaker 5: be decent throughout this game, including the bullpens obviously, so
1:19:02
Speaker 5: I like the under. Fifty tickets fifty one percent of
1:19:06
Speaker 5: the cash on the Red Sox. The money is fading
1:19:08
Speaker 5: the Red Sox here thread about minus one a team.
1:19:12
Speaker 5: I mean, I think Gray has the slight matchup edge there,
1:19:15
Speaker 5: but it's not strong, and the bullpens are about even
1:19:18
Speaker 5: just so I think you're looking at some even almost
1:19:21
Speaker 5: even pitching here, and the Yankees do have the better hitting,
1:19:23
Speaker 5: although I like pitching over hitting, but maybe the Red
1:19:26
Speaker 5: Sox pitching edge, if there is any, is so slight
1:19:30
Speaker 5: that the Yankees hitting winds up being the edge here.
1:19:33
Speaker 5: Plus the Yankees might be motivated so they don't get
1:19:35
Speaker 5: swept here Red Sox. Like I said, though, as bad
1:19:38
Speaker 5: as the Red Sox are, recent years, as the Red
1:19:41
Speaker 5: Sox step up their level of play against the Yankees,
1:19:45
Speaker 5: that has been the case in this series, and the
1:19:47
Speaker 5: Red Sox have at least had a little bit of
1:19:49
Speaker 5: fire like mentally with you know, Wilson Contrera's after he
1:19:54
Speaker 5: got walked the other day, Will Warren threw a pitch
1:19:57
Speaker 5: that was inside that walked Contrera. I don't think he
1:20:00
Speaker 5: was throwing at Contrera's, but Contrera's just kind of did
1:20:03
Speaker 5: a bat flip like he usually does. He's a little
1:20:05
Speaker 5: bit aggressive with the bat flip, and Will Warren then
1:20:08
Speaker 5: scared him down and then he took issue with it,
1:20:11
Speaker 5: and the bench is clear, but there was no fight.
1:20:14
Speaker 5: It was kind of stupid, and then Contrera's wound up
1:20:16
Speaker 5: hugging one of the guys on the Yankees. I'm like,
1:20:19
Speaker 5: what is going on here? It was a bench clearing hug.
1:20:22
Speaker 5: I tweeted about it. I don't know what that was, man,
1:20:25
Speaker 5: The Yankees like the there. I think both teams bullpens
1:20:29
Speaker 5: ran out, ran down to the infield too for the
1:20:32
Speaker 5: bench clearing brawl and there was no brawl. We do.
1:20:35
Speaker 5: We got to go back to the mid two thousands again, man,
1:20:38
Speaker 5: or the nineties in early two thousands, mid two thousands.
1:20:41
Speaker 5: We need some ferocity here again in this rivalry. Man,
1:20:45
Speaker 5: you know, we got to get back to the actual brawls.
1:20:49
Speaker 5: Pedro Martinez against Don Zimmer. You know that type of shit.
1:20:52
Speaker 5: Let's get back to it. Almost five hundred. Yes, dude,
1:20:58
Speaker 5: it's a slow crawl. We can't we can't get it
1:21:01
Speaker 5: flat earth grapple or what's up. I don't know which
1:21:04
Speaker 5: one of my plays is the best. I gave out
1:21:06
Speaker 5: over in A's Angels over nine and a half and
1:21:10
Speaker 5: under seven and a half in Mariners Indians. Those are
1:21:13
Speaker 5: my two baseball plays. All right, WNBA is next year
1:21:20
Speaker 5: as we have another long, long show here, Hold on, WNBA,
1:21:27
Speaker 5: I'm giving out a play in the WNBA. Here we
1:21:29
Speaker 5: have four WNBA or yeah, four WNBA games after noon action.
1:21:34
Speaker 5: I'm gonna have a play in the afternoon action here
1:21:38
Speaker 5: not in this first game CBS and Paramount plus Minnesota
1:21:41
Speaker 5: and Dallas. Although I do have a leen in this game,
1:21:43
Speaker 5: as I usually do, Dallas is returning home from the road,
1:21:47
Speaker 5: so you know right away I kind of look to
1:21:49
Speaker 5: look against a team like that. They've been on the
1:21:52
Speaker 5: road for almost a week. I know it was only
1:21:53
Speaker 5: two games, but returning home from the road is a
1:21:56
Speaker 5: little bit difficult. You gotta get back to home life.
1:21:59
Speaker 5: You gotta try across multiple time zones in this case,
1:22:02
Speaker 5: because they went to the Pacific time zone. Not a
1:22:04
Speaker 5: great spot. However, I think that's where the negatives kind
1:22:09
Speaker 5: of end for Dallas here because they're not gonna overlook Minnesota,
1:22:12
Speaker 5: you wouldn't think. And this is their last game before
1:22:14
Speaker 5: they have this little bit of a break here where
1:22:16
Speaker 5: we have the the Commissioner's Cup is being played on
1:22:19
Speaker 5: Tuesday night and all the other teams get get the
1:22:22
Speaker 5: whole half week off. Basically, Dallas is also not gonna
1:22:27
Speaker 5: overlook Minnesota because last time they played them, they got
1:22:30
Speaker 5: embarrassed in Minnesota, losing one hundred to seventy six. And
1:22:33
Speaker 5: if you look at what happened in this game, Minnesota
1:22:35
Speaker 5: could not miss in this game so there's gonna be
1:22:38
Speaker 5: some regression. I think they're Minnesota fifty percent from three,
1:22:43
Speaker 5: fifty four percent from the field. They went to the
1:22:45
Speaker 5: line more and only missed one free throw. Dallas shot
1:22:48
Speaker 5: terribly thirty eight percent from the field twenty nine percent
1:22:51
Speaker 5: from three, So there's gonna be regression here. I think
1:22:54
Speaker 5: Minnesota may not take Dallas as seriously coming into this
1:22:58
Speaker 5: particular game. So I like Dallas in this game, even
1:23:01
Speaker 5: though they are turning home from the road. I don't
1:23:02
Speaker 5: want to make it a play for that reason. Minnesota,
1:23:06
Speaker 5: I mean, maybe they will still show up, but they
1:23:08
Speaker 5: do have the Liberty next coming out of the break.
1:23:10
Speaker 5: That's gonna be a big game against the Liberty, but
1:23:13
Speaker 5: it's after the break. Minnesota is playing well right now.
1:23:17
Speaker 5: They did just barely beat Washington, though after losing to
1:23:20
Speaker 5: Washington once. That was a game that we lost. On
1:23:24
Speaker 5: the second game, we zigzagged and tried to lay it
1:23:27
Speaker 5: with Minnesota and they did not cover. Not happy about that.
1:23:31
Speaker 5: But maybe after those two kind of bad performances from Minnesota,
1:23:34
Speaker 5: they might actually show up with a little bit more
1:23:37
Speaker 5: focus here. Although they're traveling from the Eastern times zone
1:23:40
Speaker 5: to the Central time zone here. I still lean to Dallas,
1:23:44
Speaker 5: but I see some negatives there, you know, like the
1:23:47
Speaker 5: return home spot, seventy nine percent of tickets, seventy four
1:23:50
Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Minnesota. Minnesota's laying three and
1:23:53
Speaker 5: a half there. But yes, I would lean to taking
1:23:55
Speaker 5: the points with Dallas as the home dog there, but
1:23:57
Speaker 5: that's not my play. Portland and Washington. Washington, they had
1:24:05
Speaker 5: a horrible game last time out against Connecticut, but you
1:24:07
Speaker 5: gotta they are gonna be in bounced back mode. You
1:24:10
Speaker 5: know why they lost to Connecticut in that last game.
1:24:13
Speaker 5: I talked about it on my show. I leaned to
1:24:14
Speaker 5: Connecticut in that game. Washington had just played two three
1:24:18
Speaker 5: huge games in a row against the Liberty, pulled off
1:24:21
Speaker 5: an upset on the road, pulled off another upset against
1:24:24
Speaker 5: Minnesota on the road, and then somehow in the return
1:24:27
Speaker 5: home spot, horrible spot. Minnesota should have been focused after
1:24:31
Speaker 5: losing in them the previous game. Minnesota didn't get it
1:24:34
Speaker 5: done for us. Even though they won, they didn't cover.
1:24:37
Speaker 5: But Washington had another big game where they almost beat
1:24:40
Speaker 5: Minnesota there, so you know that it was just a
1:24:43
Speaker 5: bad spot. They had to go back out on the
1:24:45
Speaker 5: road just to play Connecticut. Bad spot. That's why they
1:24:48
Speaker 5: lost that game. They might bounce back from that now
1:24:51
Speaker 5: that they're back at home against Portland. I think they're
1:24:54
Speaker 5: the better team over Portland as well, although their records
1:24:57
Speaker 5: look similar. Portland, though, I mean, they should be in
1:24:59
Speaker 5: a bound back spot two because they just got embarrassed
1:25:02
Speaker 5: two games in a row against Chicago, where Chicago will
1:25:05
Speaker 5: put up one hundred and one and one hundred and
1:25:07
Speaker 5: twenty four points in those two games against So that
1:25:09
Speaker 5: is ridiculous. This Portland team though, I mean it is
1:25:14
Speaker 5: an indictment of their defense though, like their defense is
1:25:16
Speaker 5: not doing well. They should be in a more focused
1:25:20
Speaker 5: spot here though, after horrible, horrible performances there. So I
1:25:23
Speaker 5: think both teams are focused coming into this game. So
1:25:27
Speaker 5: that's gonna have me leaning towards the better team, which
1:25:29
Speaker 5: is Washington. Nobody's gonna want to lay six and a
1:25:32
Speaker 5: half with a team that is under five hundred, right,
1:25:35
Speaker 5: which is Washington, But the oswigers are telling you they're
1:25:38
Speaker 5: still better than Portland, who is also below five hundred.
1:25:42
Speaker 5: I would lead towards laying it with Washington. There sixty
1:25:44
Speaker 5: five percent of tickets, eighty six percent of the cash
1:25:47
Speaker 5: on Washington. There, the money is no longer agreeing with
1:25:50
Speaker 5: my play here. So I don't like seeing that because
1:25:52
Speaker 5: my one play is a home underdog here, and it's
1:25:55
Speaker 5: the one game where the market is not agreeing with
1:25:58
Speaker 5: me now, So isn't that awesome? Isn't that just great?
1:26:02
Speaker 5: When I looked at it earlier, it was a pros
1:26:04
Speaker 5: versus Joe's situation in my favor. We're gonna take Chicago
1:26:09
Speaker 5: plus seven here. And I know you might be saying, well,
1:26:12
Speaker 5: why didn't you just say Chicago just put up a
1:26:14
Speaker 5: ton of points in those last two games, so why
1:26:16
Speaker 5: would I want to play on them? Usually I want
1:26:18
Speaker 5: to fade teams that put up ridiculous outliers like that. Yes,
1:26:21
Speaker 5: that's true. This game is also on CBS in Paramount Plus.
1:26:26
Speaker 5: The reason I'm gonna play Chicago here though, is because
1:26:28
Speaker 5: we're getting a home underdog and we're fading Vegas. This
1:26:31
Speaker 5: is not a play on Chicago, really. Although Chicago ended
1:26:35
Speaker 5: a losing streak with that first win against Portland, they
1:26:38
Speaker 5: played well again against Portland, but there are some positives here.
1:26:42
Speaker 5: The positives of the Chicago is clicking again right now,
1:26:45
Speaker 5: and you know they're not gonna overlook Vegas, you know
1:26:48
Speaker 5: what I mean. Like Vegas are the returning champs, they
1:26:50
Speaker 5: haven't played them yet this year. They're not gonna overlook
1:26:53
Speaker 5: this game. They're not gonna be in a letdown spot
1:26:55
Speaker 5: despite scoring one hundred and twenty four points. They're gonna
1:26:58
Speaker 5: focus on Vegas and there's staying at home here. Vegas
1:27:02
Speaker 5: is one of the best teams in the league, but
1:27:04
Speaker 5: Vegas isn't a really difficult spot here. Vegas just played
1:27:08
Speaker 5: the Liberty two games. Ag wach is a preview of
1:27:11
Speaker 5: the Commissioner's Cup, which is gonna be on Tuesday, which,
1:27:14
Speaker 5: by the way, is vegas next game. On Tuesday, they're
1:27:17
Speaker 5: playing the Commissioner Cup, which is gonna be a revenge
1:27:20
Speaker 5: game for them against the Liberty, and maybe a preview
1:27:22
Speaker 5: of what I think about that game. I think Vegas
1:27:25
Speaker 5: is going to be super focus in that game to
1:27:27
Speaker 5: try to get the road revenge because that game is
1:27:29
Speaker 5: going to be in New York, I'm pretty sure, so
1:27:32
Speaker 5: I think Vegas is going to be focused on that
1:27:34
Speaker 5: showing up for that. I think Vegas might overlook Chicago here. Man.
1:27:38
Speaker 5: Vegas just played multiple big games in a row. They
1:27:41
Speaker 5: beat Golden State, which is a big game because Golden
1:27:44
Speaker 5: State's given them some difficulty and Golden State has their
1:27:47
Speaker 5: former assistant coach as their head coach, so there's some
1:27:52
Speaker 5: coaching rivalry going on there. That Vegas had that big
1:27:55
Speaker 5: game against New York that they lost. Then they had
1:27:57
Speaker 5: a big game against Dallas, which Dallas is an up
1:28:00
Speaker 5: coming team and Vegas had lost by thirty points at
1:28:03
Speaker 5: Dallas the previous game against Dallas, which might have been
1:28:06
Speaker 5: a bit of a bad spot for Vegas because Vegas
1:28:09
Speaker 5: had beaten Minnesota the game before that, which was a
1:28:11
Speaker 5: huge win. They had a big revenge game against Phoenix
1:28:14
Speaker 5: the next game, which, by the way, you want to
1:28:16
Speaker 5: talk about revenge mattering for Vegas, Phoenix had beaten them
1:28:21
Speaker 5: by thirty points, So I think that's why they had
1:28:23
Speaker 5: focused on Phoenix to get revenge for that home opener,
1:28:26
Speaker 5: which was a win for me on the show here.
1:28:30
Speaker 5: So that's what they did. They got that revenge against Phoenix. U. Yeah,
1:28:35
Speaker 5: but they did the same thing against Dallas, is what
1:28:38
Speaker 5: I meant to say. So, yeah, Dallas had also beaten
1:28:40
Speaker 5: them by thirty points in the prior matchup, very embarrassing.
1:28:44
Speaker 5: So they bounced back and they beat Dallas, So they're
1:28:47
Speaker 5: coming out of a big win. They're coming off of
1:28:48
Speaker 5: a string of big games here. Basically all six of
1:28:52
Speaker 5: those recent games were big. Now this is a step
1:28:55
Speaker 5: down to face Chicago. I think they might just overlook
1:28:57
Speaker 5: Chicago because again, don't just look at this schedule here,
1:29:00
Speaker 5: because they do play Chicago again on Friday. But remember
1:29:03
Speaker 5: the Commissioner's Cup is on Tuesday, so that is their
1:29:06
Speaker 5: next game after today's game. So I think it's a
1:29:09
Speaker 5: sandwich spot. We're gonna take Chicago plus seven here. You
1:29:13
Speaker 5: can get seven at multiple books out there right now.
1:29:16
Speaker 5: I would just wait a little bit and see if
1:29:17
Speaker 5: you can get the seven, because the seven is the
1:29:19
Speaker 5: key number, Like if you don't see it already now,
1:29:22
Speaker 5: some of the books have six and a half with juice,
1:29:24
Speaker 5: but I'm hoping it gets to seven, especially now that
1:29:26
Speaker 5: we see fifty six percent of tickets in eighty one
1:29:29
Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Vegas. I don't know why
1:29:32
Speaker 5: the money seems to be coming in on Vegas right
1:29:34
Speaker 5: now unless it's maybe to set it up and get
1:29:36
Speaker 5: it to that key number seven again, but seven is
1:29:39
Speaker 5: a key number in basketball because the teams stop intentionally following,
1:29:42
Speaker 5: so that's what we're gonna do. And then we do
1:29:45
Speaker 5: have New York and Golden State on ESPN and Disney
1:29:48
Speaker 5: Plus to finish this off. And of course, just like
1:29:51
Speaker 5: I said with Vegas, New York might be in a
1:29:53
Speaker 5: look ahead as well because New York has that same
1:29:57
Speaker 5: game up next, the Commissioner's Cup. They're playing vague Vegas next,
1:30:00
Speaker 5: but I think it means a little bit more for
1:30:01
Speaker 5: Vegas in this current state of things because New York
1:30:05
Speaker 5: just went into Vegas and beat them, So I don't
1:30:08
Speaker 5: the Liberty probably still are looking ahead. They'll possibly at
1:30:12
Speaker 5: least to that game, but I think Vegas has a
1:30:14
Speaker 5: worse look ahead spot here. Also the Liberty playing Golden
1:30:18
Speaker 5: State here, and they might not overlook Golden State because
1:30:20
Speaker 5: this is an ESPN game, it's a big game. And
1:30:22
Speaker 5: also the Liberty just had a horrible game against Seattle,
1:30:26
Speaker 5: and I talked about that too. The Liberty had just
1:30:28
Speaker 5: beaten Las Vegas, which was a huge game for them.
1:30:30
Speaker 5: I think they looked right past Seattle because they had
1:30:33
Speaker 5: Golden State, then the Commissioner Cup Final, then Minnesota, Dallas,
1:30:37
Speaker 5: Minnesota all on deck, so much much bigger games all
1:30:41
Speaker 5: surrounding that Seattle game. I don't know why I didn't
1:30:44
Speaker 5: give out Seattle. I think Seattle must have been also
1:30:46
Speaker 5: in a bad spot or something, because that would like
1:30:48
Speaker 5: a great spot to fade the Liberty and they lost outright. Now,
1:30:52
Speaker 5: the problem is that the Liberty might actually show up
1:30:54
Speaker 5: because that was an ugly loss to Seattle. Maybe they
1:30:58
Speaker 5: will actually show up for a game against Golden State. Here.
1:31:01
Speaker 5: I still lean Golden State, though, because the Liberty do
1:31:04
Speaker 5: still have that Commissioner's Cup look ahead. But Golden State,
1:31:07
Speaker 5: I mean they're coming up two big wins over Atlanta,
1:31:10
Speaker 5: and dude, I'm pissed that I lost that play on Atlanta.
1:31:13
Speaker 5: I thought it was a nice zigzag spot if you
1:31:15
Speaker 5: go back and see my explanation on that. My man
1:31:18
Speaker 5: Marco D'Angelo on Wager Talk, he agreed with me on that.
1:31:22
Speaker 5: I went and I saw he talked about it on
1:31:24
Speaker 5: their daily show that they didn't he agreed with me
1:31:26
Speaker 5: on that, so, and I had not listened to his
1:31:29
Speaker 5: analysis before I did mine, So because I didn't mine
1:31:32
Speaker 5: in the morning, he did his on that show in
1:31:34
Speaker 5: the afternoon. I think, so, yeah, that was just I
1:31:38
Speaker 5: think we got a tough draw there. Atlanta was winning
1:31:41
Speaker 5: most of that game or excuse yeah, Atlanta was winning
1:31:44
Speaker 5: most of that game, but it was close. That is
1:31:46
Speaker 5: still a big win for Golden State though, to beat
1:31:48
Speaker 5: Atlanta twice. They have Atlanta again next so maybe that
1:31:51
Speaker 5: is going to be a spot to play Atlanta again.
1:31:54
Speaker 5: But Golden State, I mean, as I pointed out, with
1:31:56
Speaker 5: that Atlanta again, I thought they'd be looking ahead to
1:31:59
Speaker 5: this New York because it's an ESPN game. They're gonna
1:32:02
Speaker 5: want to show up and play well against one of
1:32:04
Speaker 5: the best teams in New York, one of the teams
1:32:06
Speaker 5: it's won one of the recent championships too. Means more
1:32:09
Speaker 5: to Golden State, I think because Golden State is one
1:32:12
Speaker 5: of the up and coming teams, they're a new team
1:32:15
Speaker 5: as of the last few years, whereas New York as
1:32:17
Speaker 5: a team, it's one of the og WNBA teams. They've
1:32:20
Speaker 5: won championships, you know, including recently. So I lean to
1:32:24
Speaker 5: Golden State, but it doesn't make my card. Fifty to
1:32:28
Speaker 5: fifty on the tickets, fifty seven percent of the cash
1:32:30
Speaker 5: on Golden State, Golden State's minus one and a half.
1:32:33
Speaker 5: So the public's not gonna want to play Golden State. Man,
1:32:35
Speaker 5: where they really want to lay points. I think they're
1:32:38
Speaker 5: gonna look at this and think, how am I getting
1:32:39
Speaker 5: New York as an underdog here? You know, so it
1:32:43
Speaker 5: looks too easy to play New York. So yeah, lean
1:32:47
Speaker 5: Golden State there. So of course that means my one
1:32:49
Speaker 5: actual play is the one game where the money isn't
1:32:52
Speaker 5: agreeing with me on the side. So isn't that just great?
1:32:54
Speaker 5: But yeah, I like Chicago, that'll be a play. I
1:32:58
Speaker 5: don't want to be at six and six in the
1:32:59
Speaker 5: fuck WNBA, man, after starting out five and zero, being
1:33:03
Speaker 5: six at six would just be ridiculous. We should have
1:33:05
Speaker 5: been like eight, no, dude, because you remember, I had
1:33:08
Speaker 5: one play that was really good and I skipped it
1:33:10
Speaker 5: and it was a win early on in the season,
1:33:13
Speaker 5: and I forget what it was. And then the first
1:33:16
Speaker 5: two losses I took on the show in the WNBA
1:33:18
Speaker 5: were both total bullshit, So, you know, more bullshit than
1:33:23
Speaker 5: that Atlanta one was at least that Atlanta game that
1:33:25
Speaker 5: just happened was close, which, by the way, I was
1:33:28
Speaker 5: right about Atlanta not being in a good spot last
1:33:30
Speaker 5: night they lost again. I was right about Indiana winning
1:33:33
Speaker 5: the injured player theory spot yesterday too, So not happy that.
1:33:37
Speaker 5: I mean, I guess I'm happy I was right, but
1:33:39
Speaker 5: I'm not happy I didn't have any of that on
1:33:41
Speaker 5: my card. All right, and then we have the World Cup.
1:33:44
Speaker 5: Go watch my analysis, man again, I filled up my
1:33:47
Speaker 5: bracket for the World Cup. I don't like it at all.
1:33:52
Speaker 5: You can go watch watch my analysis. It was a
1:33:54
Speaker 5: game theory bracket, so I just fade what the public
1:33:57
Speaker 5: is doing with the bracket. I still had good team
1:34:00
Speaker 5: was all going far, so there is that, but I
1:34:02
Speaker 5: picked against the grain. My initial pick was gonna be France.
1:34:07
Speaker 5: As you saw you watched my initial World Cup preview. France,
1:34:11
Speaker 5: I think it's still kind of the team to beat.
1:34:13
Speaker 5: They do have the best odds to win the World
1:34:15
Speaker 5: Cup at this point. Now, I think they're the best team.
1:34:17
Speaker 5: They have a lot of experience. They made the final
1:34:20
Speaker 5: four years ago, and they're a really deep team. But
1:34:22
Speaker 5: everyone is picking them and they're still only like plus
1:34:25
Speaker 5: four hundred or whatever to win the whole thing, So
1:34:27
Speaker 5: odds are that some other team is gonna still win.
1:34:31
Speaker 5: So that's where I started with that bracket picking last night.
1:34:35
Speaker 5: You can go watch what I did. But I had
1:34:36
Speaker 5: to go against France because they're being overpicked in a
1:34:39
Speaker 5: huge way, so I just can't do it. I had
1:34:42
Speaker 5: to pick a different team. Unfortunately, I picked a team
1:34:44
Speaker 5: that I don't like, and then I'm rooting against and
1:34:46
Speaker 5: that have been dicks in my city, which they've been
1:34:50
Speaker 5: doing since the seventeen hundreds. So you already know who
1:34:54
Speaker 5: I'm talking about. But yeah, you can go watch what
1:34:58
Speaker 5: I did with that bracket, all right, But anyway, Yeah,
1:35:00
Speaker 5: the knockout bracket starts today. In the afternoon was South Africa,
1:35:04
Speaker 5: who somehow made the knockout stage against Canada on Fox Telemundo.
1:35:09
Speaker 5: Fox won. This game is gonna be in Englewood, California,
1:35:12
Speaker 5: every game from now on, I believe. I know I'm wrong.
1:35:15
Speaker 5: I thought every game is gonna be in the US
1:35:16
Speaker 5: from now on. I'm wrong. There are still some games
1:35:19
Speaker 5: that are gonna be in Mexico and Toronto. Whatever. Man,
1:35:24
Speaker 5: I don't know. I don't think. I don't think that
1:35:27
Speaker 5: Canada and Mexico are getting the home country edge anymore,
1:35:32
Speaker 5: but I could be wrong about that. The US will though. Anyway,
1:35:35
Speaker 5: this game is in California. I don't think either team
1:35:39
Speaker 5: is good. Dude, Canada has not had a good history
1:35:41
Speaker 5: in the world Cup. I think this is the first
1:35:43
Speaker 5: time they've ever made the knockout stage. I think they
1:35:46
Speaker 5: had I think they had only losses in World Cup
1:35:49
Speaker 5: play until this year. South Africa also is a big
1:35:53
Speaker 5: time surprise that they made it this far. South Africa
1:35:56
Speaker 5: somehow just beat South Korea in their last matchup, which
1:36:00
Speaker 5: wound up eliminating South Korea, even though South Korea is
1:36:03
Speaker 5: a better team than South Africa. I don't know how
1:36:06
Speaker 5: that happened. South Korea did not play a good game.
1:36:09
Speaker 5: Neither team was good though, so yeah, I don't like
1:36:11
Speaker 5: South Africa really here. I don't like Canada either, though
1:36:15
Speaker 5: I don't think either team is good, so I'm not
1:36:17
Speaker 5: giving out a play on this. Canada did just lose
1:36:20
Speaker 5: to Switzerland. If you look at what Canada's done in
1:36:22
Speaker 5: the World Cup, it is very unimpressive. They had a
1:36:25
Speaker 5: draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina. They beat cutter. Who cares
1:36:29
Speaker 5: I have beat them by six? I mean, but it's cutter.
1:36:31
Speaker 5: They suck. And then Canada lost to Switzerland. They did okay,
1:36:36
Speaker 5: they lost two to one. Switzerland is better than they are,
1:36:38
Speaker 5: but still this has not been an impressive showing to
1:36:42
Speaker 5: me really from either of these teams, Canada is the
1:36:46
Speaker 5: favorite on the three way line at minus one fifty.
1:36:48
Speaker 5: And yes there is still a three way line even though.
1:36:51
Speaker 5: So the way this works is there are no more
1:36:55
Speaker 5: draws as far as the final result is concerned, so
1:36:57
Speaker 5: the knockout stage a team has to okay. So the
1:37:02
Speaker 5: market now has two different There are two different markets
1:37:05
Speaker 5: that set up in the knockout stages. You get the
1:37:08
Speaker 5: three way market like we like we had in the
1:37:10
Speaker 5: group stage where you can play either team to win
1:37:13
Speaker 5: or the draw. So yes, there is still a draw
1:37:16
Speaker 5: on the three way market. But what that means is
1:37:18
Speaker 5: the game is still tied after extra time. So I
1:37:22
Speaker 5: believe what happens in these knockout stages is they play
1:37:25
Speaker 5: in the normal match the ninety minutes plus stoppage time.
1:37:29
Speaker 5: If it's tied at that point, I believe they play
1:37:31
Speaker 5: an extra period of I don't know, if it's a
1:37:34
Speaker 5: half hour, I forget what. They play some sort of
1:37:36
Speaker 5: extra period and then I think if it's still tied
1:37:39
Speaker 5: after that, then it goes to penalty kicks. Somebody could
1:37:43
Speaker 5: correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's right.
1:37:45
Speaker 5: So a team does have to advance. But if you're
1:37:48
Speaker 5: looking at this three way market here, the draw will
1:37:51
Speaker 5: hit if the game is tied at the end of
1:37:54
Speaker 5: all that time, so if it goes into penalty kicks,
1:37:57
Speaker 5: I believe the draw wins on the three way market.
1:38:01
Speaker 5: I believe that's what happens here. So there is a
1:38:03
Speaker 5: separate market with which team is going to advance, and
1:38:07
Speaker 5: that's just a straight up either this team advances or
1:38:10
Speaker 5: this team advances. And of course the favorite is gonna
1:38:13
Speaker 5: be a heavier favorite to advance in the to advance.
1:38:16
Speaker 5: You know, the team's gonna be heavy favorite to advance.
1:38:19
Speaker 5: Then they are on the three way line, right, because
1:38:20
Speaker 5: there's no draw scenario in the advance right, even though
1:38:25
Speaker 5: it's it gets dicey, dude. So like Canada's minus one
1:38:28
Speaker 5: fifty on the three way so they're favorite here, but
1:38:31
Speaker 5: they're probably like minus three hundred something on the too
1:38:33
Speaker 5: advance line. I talked about it last night. I think
1:38:36
Speaker 5: that is what they are. And maybe that line's a
1:38:38
Speaker 5: little bit too heavy because if you think about it, well,
1:38:41
Speaker 5: I don't know, man, because of course, if Canada wins,
1:38:44
Speaker 5: then they hit on the two advance. Obviously, if they
1:38:46
Speaker 5: win the advance, we know that. But if the game
1:38:49
Speaker 5: does wind up getting the penalty kicks, which is I
1:38:52
Speaker 5: guess kind of unlikely in this matchup, but maybe I
1:38:55
Speaker 5: don't know, maybe not. Then really it's anybody's game in
1:38:58
Speaker 5: the penalty kicks, like kicks are gonna favor the team
1:39:01
Speaker 5: that has the team and has the better strikers and
1:39:03
Speaker 5: probably the more experienced teams. So the penalty kicks are
1:39:07
Speaker 5: probably gonna favorite teams like France, Norway, teams that you know,
1:39:13
Speaker 5: really are capable at shooting, and you know, some of
1:39:17
Speaker 5: the other better teams too, probably, But and the Netherlands,
1:39:21
Speaker 5: I would say, is probably in that as well. I
1:39:23
Speaker 5: don't know much about it though, but anyway, Yeah, I
1:39:25
Speaker 5: don't have a good read on this game. I don't
1:39:27
Speaker 5: like either team. Canada is the favorite, so I expect
1:39:30
Speaker 5: they should win. Not gonna give out a play on
1:39:34
Speaker 5: this though. I'd slightly lean more towards Canada here. But
1:39:39
Speaker 5: South Africa probably feels like they're free rolling because nobody
1:39:42
Speaker 5: expected them to be here. Canada, because they're one of
1:39:44
Speaker 5: the hosts. It was like they kind of expected to
1:39:47
Speaker 5: be here. Canada was the favorite to win their group,
1:39:50
Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure, so Canada was more expected to be here.
1:39:53
Speaker 5: South Africa was the They had the worst odds to advance
1:39:58
Speaker 5: out of their group, so South Africa could to be
1:40:00
Speaker 5: completely free rolling here. So maybe South Africa does come
1:40:03
Speaker 5: out and play looser, whereas the pressure might be a
1:40:06
Speaker 5: little bit more on Canada here. I don't think either
1:40:09
Speaker 5: team's gonna make it too far in this thing though.
1:40:11
Speaker 5: I don't like either team, but one team has to
1:40:13
Speaker 5: advance here, so that's gonna do it, man, that's it,
1:40:19
Speaker 5: flat Earth. Yes, the draws, I don't know. I think
1:40:23
Speaker 5: if you played a draw in every match so far,
1:40:25
Speaker 5: you probably lost money. There haven't been that many draws.
1:40:28
Speaker 5: You got a lucky draw if you went with the
1:40:30
Speaker 5: game that I thought was really likely to go to
1:40:32
Speaker 5: a draw. Yesterday was the Algeria Austria game, because a
1:40:36
Speaker 5: draw meant that both teams were likely to advance, so
1:40:39
Speaker 5: I was like, these teams are probably just gonna both
1:40:41
Speaker 5: play to a zero zero draw. The total was one
1:40:44
Speaker 5: and a half in that game, but nope, both teams
1:40:46
Speaker 5: tried to win and the game only drew because I
1:40:50
Speaker 5: think it was Austria hit a goal with like they dude,
1:40:55
Speaker 5: I don't know what it was. Because stotpachtime was four
1:40:58
Speaker 5: minutes in that game, and they let Stoppagchheim go five
1:41:01
Speaker 5: minutes and that's when Austrian made the drawing goal. I
1:41:05
Speaker 5: don't know how they determine that. It seems like it's
1:41:07
Speaker 5: rigged you because if it's four minutes of stoppage time,
1:41:10
Speaker 5: I thought the match was supposed to stop in ninety
1:41:12
Speaker 5: four minutes, but nope, it was ninety five minutes. And
1:41:14
Speaker 5: there goes Austria getting the drawing goal there. And by
1:41:19
Speaker 5: the way, yeah, that knocked out Iran. I think it
1:41:22
Speaker 5: is rigged. I think yeah. I think it's because of
1:41:24
Speaker 5: all the bullshit, all the military activity, all the warshit
1:41:29
Speaker 5: that's going on. Yeah, I think you're right. I think
1:41:30
Speaker 5: it was rigged to get rid of Iran. Absolutely ridiculous. Anyway,
1:41:36
Speaker 5: that's gonna do it for my show today. My plays
1:41:38
Speaker 5: one more time are under seven and a half in Mariners,
1:41:43
Speaker 5: Indians in baseball, over nine and a half in A's
1:41:47
Speaker 5: Angels in baseball, and the Chicago Sky plus seven in
1:41:51
Speaker 5: the WNBA. WNBA needs to start turning it around again. Man.
1:41:55
Speaker 5: I am extremely unhappy that we went from five and
1:41:58
Speaker 5: oh to six and five. It's just bullshit again. We
1:42:03
Speaker 5: had one win that was a good play that I
1:42:05
Speaker 5: just left off the table, and then we had two
1:42:07
Speaker 5: losses that definitely should have been wins. And we easily
1:42:09
Speaker 5: could have had the win with at Lanta the other
1:42:12
Speaker 5: night too. So I'm pissed. That's gonna do it? Learn
1:42:14
Speaker 5: it tone on Twitter. I can't talk anymore. Learn it
1:42:17
Speaker 5: tone on Instagram, Like, subscribe to this channel here, listen
1:42:20
Speaker 5: on audio Apple, Spotify, Speaker. Get this channel up to
1:42:23
Speaker 5: five hundred subscribers. Man, we gotta get this thing going.
1:42:26
Speaker 5: Nobody listens to me at this point. What else do
1:42:30
Speaker 5: I have to promote? Covered in Yuke on YouTube? I
1:42:33
Speaker 5: did one you cover the other day, but my voice
1:42:36
Speaker 5: is dead again. Do I haven't even been able to speak,
1:42:38
Speaker 5: let alone sing the last two days. So I can't
1:42:40
Speaker 5: do anything right now. It's really bad.
1:42:43
Speaker 2: Uh.
1:42:43
Speaker 5: Pedreon dot com, slash learn a toad if you want
1:42:45
Speaker 5: to support me there. I gotta get some of the
1:42:47
Speaker 5: yuke requests in order or two, but I can't do it.
1:42:50
Speaker 5: I can't do anything right now. Literally, I cannot sing
1:42:53
Speaker 5: at all. And I blame this show because I keep
1:42:57
Speaker 5: talking and I don't have any way of controlling my
1:42:59
Speaker 5: voe on the show. I just talk loud and doing
1:43:02
Speaker 5: it for two hours every day is absolute death to
1:43:07
Speaker 5: my voice. I can't do it. Who I need to find?
1:43:11
Speaker 5: You can hear it right there. I can't. I can't
1:43:12
Speaker 5: do anything. You can. I have to, like, you know,
1:43:15
Speaker 5: I have to find a way to just kind of
1:43:16
Speaker 5: talk like this the whole time. I don't know, man,
1:43:19
Speaker 5: if I can find a way to kind of just
1:43:22
Speaker 5: not talk as loudly, get a little bit more sexy
1:43:26
Speaker 5: here on the show, I don't know. Go listen to
1:43:28
Speaker 5: Loser Cast every Tuesday night. Giants Chief Spot podcast, the
1:43:32
Speaker 5: New York Giants. That's another podcast we have. And I
1:43:35
Speaker 5: was on Neffelin Best Squad neft to America on Friday,
1:43:38
Speaker 5: so go check that out too. If you missed it,
1:43:40
Speaker 5: that would have been a good start to your weekend.
1:43:42
Speaker 5: But you can finish your weekend with it now. Happy Sunday.
1:43:45
Speaker 5: Let's have a winning day. Let's get back on track
1:43:48
Speaker 5: after two bad days. Peace.
1:43:52
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you play it from
1:43:55
Speaker 2: the flow. Your name's feel me something to somebody for show?
1:44:00
Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, nic.
1:44:08
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on nothing nice up now.
1:44:16
Speaker 2: Hold on hold on.
1:44:20
Speaker 4: Let me pull you that bites horn, but you don't.
1:44:30
Speaker 2: Get the crown.
1:44:33
Speaker 4: Hold On, hold on and stay with me now