Latest / Financial Survival Network / Fed Frozen, America Gains Advantage - Dale Smothers #6390

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Fed Frozen, America Gains Advantage - Dale Smothers #6390 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: American dominance is a must headed into the next decade
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: for sure, and in our opinion, the next century. And
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: what you've seen from this administration, it seems to be
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: a laid out plan and strategy to say this hemisphere
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: our you know, let's say, this side of the globe
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: is going to belong to America and democracy. Uh, trying
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: our best to expel any sign of communism or socialism.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
• 0:40
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• 0:45
  Speaker 2: dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Survival Network now more than ever.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Finance
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, we had
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: news coming out of the FED well on other news,
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: basically the criminal investigation against the FED chair Jerome Powell
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: has been ended. I guess he's going to leave peacefully.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: Perhaps that remains to be seen. But our good friend
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Adele Smothers is with us now and Dale, it's great
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: to have you back. So we have a FED decision
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: which was basically do nothing. I guess they figured they
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: could get away with it. Consumer confidence looking up and
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: the rest of the world's falling apart. But things in
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: the good old US of A are going according to schedule.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, exactly, you know, especially if you look at
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: this from a relative standpoint, Carrie. I mean, Europe and
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Asia are in a crisis, a real crisis.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: And you know, you may not necessarily like everything that
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has done over the last six months, but
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of the moves that have taken place, starting
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: with Venezuela, Greenland, and now the straight off moves has
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: really set up America to be the dominant Although we
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: are still seeing higher than desired gas prices, we are
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the dominant player in the energy game, especially with this
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: breakdown that we're seeing in OPEC.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: Who knows what that looks like.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: But exactly what you said right coming at the top
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: of the show, I think that the consumer is confident,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Labor remains fairly strong.
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: We just saw that print drop this morning.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: You've got inflation, this, you know, in my opinion, is
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  Speaker 1: way too high. The measure that the FED desires the
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: PCEE came back at three point five year over year,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: which is higher than we would hope. And so the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Fed's decision to do nothing I think is warranted here.
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: You know, especially with all the data they're looking at.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I think you've got a new fedhair coming in with
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Kevin Warsh that's going to look at this and say
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: that the economy can run hot. But even staring at
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: oil at over one hundred dollars over one hundred and
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars a barrel at the beginning of the market
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: today over one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel. It's
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: fallen since, but it's still over one hundred. I mean,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: it's tough for you to really make a decision here.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: If one fifty point cut or twenty five point cut
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: could kick even more inflation into the system, I think
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  Speaker 1: this no decision, or let's say a decision to do nothing,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: was probably the right one.
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  Speaker 4: Gary.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the longer they hold off, I think it's
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: inevitable they're going to cut rates. But the longer they
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: hold off, then the more room they have when they
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: eventually have to start cutting. You know, when the whole
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: thing started, I wrote an article saying that basically interest
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: rates were not going down, they were going up. That
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: would be the big surprise. I wat that lie two
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: months ago, and then pretty much spot.
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: On, spot on, spot on.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: And this is why we're telling a lot of investors
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: right now that you know, bond funds still may not
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: be the most favorable instrument to put safe money. And
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: we like building portfolios with a risk on, risk off
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: approach to retirement investing. And we work with retirees predominantly,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: those who are you know, let's say over the age
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  Speaker 1: of fifty nine and a half, they have they have
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: access to the money that they saved in four one
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: ks and now they can actually do something with those monies.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Those who are close to retirement, we say five years
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: are less away from retirement. It's important for you to
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: understand that losses hurt you more than gains help you.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: And if you've got a piece of your portfolio that's
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: supposed to be safe and it's just.
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: Moving in tandem with the overall market.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: We look back at March mark goodness, the typical balance
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: portfolios struggled there looking for alternatives in that bond exposure
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: where that forty percent what we call risk off money
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: belongs may be a wise decision because rates are certainly
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: in our opinion, you look two years out, I think
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: rates are down, but between now and then, who knows.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And even cutting interest rates, you know this, Gary, even
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: cutting interestrates doesn't automatically mean that the tenure follows. So
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: this is the dilemma we face. Now is a fit?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they're in a box. But the longer
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  Speaker 3: they can put off cutting, the better off they're going
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  Speaker 3: to be. Let the rest of the world decline a
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  Speaker 3: little bit more, gives them more flexibility. Flow of funds
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  Speaker 3: still coming into the United States. I think that's obvious.
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: And yeah, so I don't know if you would go
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: this a little off topic, But I don't know if
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: you caught that article about the town that rebelled against
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: a data center and basically shut it down because they
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: didn't want to see their electric rates skyrocket? Did you
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: happen to catch that one?
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  Speaker 1: I caught a glipse of it. I didn't read the
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: entire article, but all that and I thought it was interesting.
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  Speaker 1: Because energy prices are already high, and AI data center
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: moves to your town, it becomes even more expensive. That
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: that is an interesting play there. What's the world do
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: about that? What does America do about that energy crisis?
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good question, and and I'm not sure
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  Speaker 3: the answer to that other than what what's happening is
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: hardening the grid and making the grid more more resilient.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: And I don't know. Maybe Elon Musk is right, you
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  Speaker 3: just send the data centers up up in space.
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  Speaker 4: Right exactly exactly.
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  Speaker 1: And and you know, we talk about that as if
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  Speaker 1: it's you know, hyperbole or a dream, but the reality is,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: this space war is heating up. American dominates in space
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  Speaker 1: is important as it is on Earth. In our opinion,
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  Speaker 1: it seems far fetched. But but you know, if you
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  Speaker 1: could out source data centers to space and have an
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: endless supply of energy from the Sun, that makes perfect sense.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: Until then, I think you've got.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: To allow these data centers to maybe build their own
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: grid and plug into that. Perhaps if that data center
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: does go to space, now we have more power plants,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: we have more energy that we can consume here on Earth.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Some sort of federal system makes a lot of sense
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: in our opinion, to be able to at least co op.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily saying you fund the entire thing but
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: co oping in some way or giving a little bit
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: less red tape to those individuals to go out and
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: create their own power plants. But then, just like you said,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you've got to find those neighborhoods that allow these power
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: plants to be built right in their backyard, because that's
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: not necessarily the most beautiful thing to look at.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, obviously you've got to go nuclear. There's really
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: no other way to do this, not with the speed
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: that we're looking to do it at and the capacity.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: There's really nothing else you could do but nuclear.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, and I think we've got an administration
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that's far more favorable to nuclear power than we've seen
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  Speaker 1: in a long time.
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  Speaker 4: You know. So this this idea.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: That nuclear renewables, coal, fracking, clearly oil, all of these
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: things are are really helping American dominance in our opinion,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I think that, and I think you share this sentiment.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: American dominance is a must headed into the next decade
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: for sure, and in our opinion, the next century. And
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: what you've seen from this administration, it seems to be
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: a laid out plan and strategy to say this hemisphere
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: our you know, let's say this side of the globe
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: is going to belong to America and democracy, trying our
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: best to expel any sign of communism or socialism that.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: Is accept of.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: You think about Cuba, you know, you you'd hate to
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: hear that in the news lines right now, especially with
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: the price of oil where it's at.
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: You don't want too many fronts.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: But I don't think that this administration is bluffing when
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: they say they're considering a takeover of Cuba, because it
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: fits the narrative that they are after it started again
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: with Greenland, Venezuela, Yeah, hell, taking care of Iran.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: Hey couldn't agree more. And uh, I don't think there's
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: any other way that it can be done Otherwise. Basically,
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: the US was heading for relevancy, yes, and becoming just
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: another country.
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  Speaker 4: Uh.
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  Speaker 3: You know the problem is that many of you out
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: there don't really understand the power dynamics. Basically, I wrote
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: an article in May totally outlining what was going to
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  Speaker 3: happen once I saw that the US was intent on
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: taking back the Panama Canal. The rest was obvious, and
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  Speaker 3: Venezuela was going, and then Cuba, Iran, And basically the
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: article was that China just lost the third opium war,
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: and once she agreed to shut them down. You know,
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  Speaker 3: you see the amount of fentanoil coming into the US
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  Speaker 3: has greatly diminished. That was kind of the green light.
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  Speaker 3: And you haven't heard China talking about taking over Taiwan lately.
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: You know, they saber rattle once in a while. It's
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: always a possibility. I just don't believe it's going to happen.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, and incredible insight on your part, you know.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: You you you mentioned something to me probably about a year,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: maybe a year and a half, maybe even two years
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: ago that the left seems to and not stake the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: super political here. I mean, clearly, we want investors, we
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: want American citizens to prosper no matter who's in power.
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: But I thought it was unique that you said, uh.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: The left seems to take Trump literally but not seriously.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: They should definitely take him seriously but not literally. Man,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: that was a revolutionary way to think about donalds up
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: because what he has laid out, you know, if you
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: read between the lines, you could see this coming for
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: for his presidency, and he has no one. I hate
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: to say it this way, but he really has no
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: one to answer to because he's not running for reelection here.
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: Uh. And so it's amazing, this.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Is a this is definitely a shift in geopolitical powers
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and for the better. I think of America with a
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: little bit of suffering, and again relative to the world
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: are suffering, you know, thankfully it's not with human lives.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Clearly there have been some lives lost in this war already.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: And thank God for those men and women who support
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: this mission, uh and would lay down their life for
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: this beautiful flag that we all pledge.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: Allegiance to and the and the standards that it believes in.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: But I think those those standards and those lively, those
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: lively hood values that we all hold to were under
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: attack consistently for the last probably two decades. They've been
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: under attack. It didn't end with nine to eleven. And
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: so with this idea that we are taking back global
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: dominance in America first, mentality being front and center, there's
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit of suffering from our pocketbook, There's no.
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: Doubt about it, no doubt about it.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I think if you're participating in the US economy from
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: an investor standpoint, you're prospering on one side of your pocketbook,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: but the other side where you got to pay out
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: is still so struggling, no doubt, but it's relative to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the world, it is far better than it would be
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: had we have had this same issue. And I was
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: just on a different show just a couple of days ago,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: talking to a host that is definitely left leaning, and
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I asked him this question, where would we be in
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: let's say five years, if Iran or sooner, if Iron
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: had a nuclear weapon right now, same situation, but with
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the leverage that they would have from that nuclear weapon,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: where would the end be? We would not have an
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: end in sight anywhere anytime soon.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: It's very true. Could not agree with you more on that, Pyle.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: And actually Scott Jennings, the guy from CNN who's the
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: right wing conservative foil for the show, he was the
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: one who said it that the left takes Trump literally
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: but not seriously, and the right takes him seriously but
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: not literally. And I thought that was a brilliant observation.
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: I wish it was mine, and I could claim I
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: could claim credit for it, but it doesn't really matter
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: because it really sums the whole thing up quite well.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: And so next year, come well, come the end of
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: the year, when we're doing the wrap up what asset
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: classes do the best, what kind of which ones kind
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: of just struggle, and which ones hit the cam?
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, good, good, good question here.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I think that you've got consumer that is confident. And
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: if this confidence continues, as you alluded to at the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: beginning of the show, the confident report, that the consumer
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: confidence report that came back was very good, you know,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: in spite of all the headlines, in spite of all
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the possibilities of a recession that you know, the left
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: may have us to believe, the consumer is still confident.
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: If the consumer.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Continues to spend, I think you're going to see technology
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: leading the way through twenty twenty six. A lot of
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the same play book that was in session here for
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five is now going to be in session
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: for twenty twenty six as long as the consumer is spending.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Because the consumer is spending at places, maybe not always Apple,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: maybe not always Meta with advertising or search with Google.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: It may not be those companies per se that you're
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: spending money at, but the companies you are spending money at.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: The consumer is spending money at the malls, at you know,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: online shopping. These places, those places are going to ai
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: to make themselves more efficient, and for that reason, AI
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: continues to prospers for these tech companies.
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: So tech leads the way here.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: But again, if the consumer remains confident, I think that
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: you've got a lot of opportunities in just consumer stables
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and consumer discretionaries.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: Along the way.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: And one other sector that I think you should definitely
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: be leaning into here is the utility sector. For the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: reason that we discussed, power is going to be in
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: high demand as long as things continue to grow the
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: way they are. If oil stays high, clearly you would
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: see that creep into the economy and things could slow down.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Carry This is why, again we talk to investors every
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: day about understanding the difference between the income money that
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: you need to be stable and liquid versus the money
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: that you've got out seeking opportunities. If you've got money
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: that's five or six years away from being needed for income,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: go hunting for opportunities and they will present themselves. Volatility
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: is going to be the price of admission in the mark.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: But if you've got money that you must have today
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: or tomorrow for income, be careful. We like using options
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: to give you that ability to protect some of the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: downside and still participate in the upside.
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: I hope that answers that question all right.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: I think you answered it with distinction and the clarity.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: We appreciate you coming on, Dell. Just tell us how
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: we connect with you, how we find you on the
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: web and your website and all that good stuff.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Absolutely so our website rdswealth dot com. You can go
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: there and learn all about our philosophy and who we
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: are as a firm. And we have a radio show
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: and podcast. The radio show is more local, the podcast national.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: It's a retirement Matters podcast with Dale Smothers, the Retirement
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Matters Podcast. If you search that on any of your
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: podcast streaming services, you can find that. We love being
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: on your show, just getting this message out. Our goal
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: is to help educate the listener, just like you, on
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: ways to retire successfully. That's what it's all about. Of course,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: our office phone number two seven zero six hundred plan.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Do you have any questions for us?
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: Excellent? Hey, always a pleasure. Thanks for the insights. We'll
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: talk to you again soon. Questions comments for Dale myself
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: The Substack Financial Survival Network dot com. I've totally moved
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: to substack the lawsuit. I will have some updates the
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: parking lawsuit, but it's moving ahead. Had a little ud. Well,
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: you won't believe. Who's the judge on the case now,
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: Judge Eileen Cannon. She was of notoriety on the Trump case.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: She basically didn't just throw the case out, but blew
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: up the government's case pretty much, ruling that the special
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: counsel Jack Smith was illegally appointed. She went way further
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: than anybody ever expected. Hopefully she feels the same way
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: about parking as I do, but she's impartial. She's a
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: distinguished jurist, a stickler for the rules, which is a
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: good thing. So we'll keep your posted.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Dale.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Thanks so much. We'll talk to you again soon.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: Good to see Kerry.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,