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The Favorites - NFL Preseason + 2022 Player Props · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
1:26
Speaker 1: the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I
1:29
Speaker 1: am Chad Noman, Action Network, but we got a lot
1:33
Speaker 1: to get to and I'm super excited about it to
1:35
Speaker 1: be joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional
1:38
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. We're finally talking a lot of football,
1:44
Speaker 1: my man. It's gonna be football from here on out.
1:47
Speaker 1: Rock and roll, my man. Now, this is the best.
1:50
Speaker 1: That's literally every room in my house has a TV
1:52
Speaker 1: going for the next month and a half and it's
1:54
Speaker 1: just NFL Network. It's never any b roll of just
1:57
Speaker 1: guys practicing in shorts and then talking about it. It's
2:00
Speaker 1: truly my favorite time. I just wake up and watch football. Well,
2:03
Speaker 1: listen what we're going to talk about right now with
2:06
Speaker 1: my other bff, uh, my sworn enemy from Convince me,
2:11
Speaker 1: the host of so many things we do at Action Network,
2:14
Speaker 1: including the Fantasy Flex podcast. Um, Chris Raybon. What's up?
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Speaker 1: We got a lot to talk about because preseason games
2:26
Speaker 1: are coming up. Uh. I believe it was uh, a
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Speaker 1: prominent gambling ambassador who goes by the name of Trey
2:36
Speaker 1: Wingo that said, Uh, who would bother betting on preseason? Well,
2:40
Speaker 1: a lot of people, because preseason is a great way
2:45
Speaker 1: for people to if they are thinking wisely about it,
2:49
Speaker 1: to find a little bit of an advantage. Um. And
2:52
Speaker 1: then I want to talk about season long player props, Raybon,
2:56
Speaker 1: So first let's talk about preseason, because there have been
3:01
Speaker 1: some changes. Like it used to be every wise guy
3:03
Speaker 1: knew you bet the third game at the preseason, you
3:06
Speaker 1: can't really do that anymore with the changes. Uh, explain
3:11
Speaker 1: a little bit about how bree season betting for both
3:14
Speaker 1: of you, Simon and ray Bound. But Raybond will start
3:16
Speaker 1: with you. How has it changed in recent years, especially
3:20
Speaker 1: with the reduced schedule. I just think that a lot
3:25
Speaker 1: of coaches don't like, they don't put too much stock
3:28
Speaker 1: in the preseason. They're they're just looking to kind of
3:32
Speaker 1: go over certain schemes, see certain players, but no one's
3:35
Speaker 1: really game planning. And a lot of coaches now don't
3:38
Speaker 1: even treat any of the games like the dress rehearsal.
3:41
Speaker 1: But I don't mind that at all because I actually
3:45
Speaker 1: you think that I rather bet the more you know,
3:48
Speaker 1: the more obscure rosters. I think there's a lot more variance.
3:50
Speaker 1: I think the market, um, it gets over confident, and
3:54
Speaker 1: I just think you can have kind of specialized knowledge
3:58
Speaker 1: that is going to pay off, even more so than
4:01
Speaker 1: in the regular season when the market is just so sharp.
4:04
Speaker 1: In the regular season, there's so much money coming in.
4:06
Speaker 1: So I do think there's an edge, but it's a
4:09
Speaker 1: little different as far as how I approach it, Like
4:13
Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily trying to handicap the whole slate. I'm
4:18
Speaker 1: like picking my spots. I'm I'm I'm reading news and
4:21
Speaker 1: watching news all week, and I'm trying to pick my spots.
4:24
Speaker 1: Probably bet more trends in the preseason because there's just
4:28
Speaker 1: they're just so much variants, and you know, even just
4:32
Speaker 1: things as simple as like fading the public is um.
4:34
Speaker 1: You know, certain following certain line moves like it can
4:38
Speaker 1: be very profitable in the preseason. That's not really true
4:40
Speaker 1: in the regular season. UM, but there's just so many unknowns. Um,
4:43
Speaker 1: even for the books. I think setting these lines, there's
4:46
Speaker 1: so many unknown So I think it can really pay
4:48
Speaker 1: off to kind of walk into the beat beat reporters
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Speaker 1: and the practice reports and understand you know the first, second,
4:54
Speaker 1: third teams and who's gonna play. Um, you could have
4:56
Speaker 1: a big edge in the preseason. Uh, Simon, I want
4:59
Speaker 1: to get to you in one second. But what do
5:01
Speaker 1: you mean, Raybond when you say specialized information? Like so,
5:08
Speaker 1: I think in the regular season more or less you
5:11
Speaker 1: kind of know who's gonna play. Like, yes, there are
5:13
Speaker 1: injuries and you're sometimes you have to wait till Sunday
5:16
Speaker 1: to to find out if guys are going to be
5:18
Speaker 1: in and out. But in the preseason, I think it's
5:21
Speaker 1: a lot more Uh concerning Okay, what is the quarterback
5:26
Speaker 1: rotation gonna be? What are the coaches saying as far
5:28
Speaker 1: as how they're going to approach the game? Is it
5:30
Speaker 1: gonna be a game where like what exactly are they
5:33
Speaker 1: do they want to look at? Who do they want
5:35
Speaker 1: to look at? Um? How long do they want to leave?
5:38
Speaker 1: Like I don't not the starter because the starters rarely play,
5:40
Speaker 1: but how long do they want to leave the second
5:42
Speaker 1: team and or the third team? You know who's has
5:44
Speaker 1: the deeper roster, you know who has the better undrafted
5:48
Speaker 1: free agent class? You know things like that, Um, you know,
5:51
Speaker 1: if you even if like let's say you just follow
5:53
Speaker 1: like one team and your that's your hometown team, but
5:56
Speaker 1: you've kind of been following your practice reports every day
5:59
Speaker 1: and reading their beats, like you can have an edge
6:02
Speaker 1: just betting that specific team because um, you know, and
6:05
Speaker 1: a lot of an average better might not in the
6:07
Speaker 1: market in general, I think it's not necessarily that locked
6:12
Speaker 1: in and dialed in to these specifics. And so that's
6:14
Speaker 1: why I like it, because I think it's like you
6:17
Speaker 1: can you're essentially betting on like these second and third
6:19
Speaker 1: and four stringers that a lot of people don't even know,
6:22
Speaker 1: and even the books setting the lines, they don't really
6:24
Speaker 1: know these players. They're there. I think you're on a
6:26
Speaker 1: uh if you do know these guys, I think you're
6:29
Speaker 1: on a more even level with the book, then then
6:31
Speaker 1: maybe you would you would ever be otherwise, all right, Simon,
6:36
Speaker 1: are you betting preseason games? Yeah? I mean I'm always betting,
6:41
Speaker 1: But I think it's changed a little bit for sure
6:43
Speaker 1: since COVID. Like before COVID, we had four games and
6:47
Speaker 1: I kind of had a rhythm and the group to
6:48
Speaker 1: it that I've just playcated to every year where this
6:51
Speaker 1: is a little different. Like I think Chris talked about
6:53
Speaker 1: like teams they really don't care, like they really do
6:55
Speaker 1: not care. Most coaches Sean McVeigh put him at the
6:58
Speaker 1: very top, like his starters don't just the field in preseason.
7:01
Speaker 1: So to me, I I try to find advantage in
7:03
Speaker 1: these backup quarterbacks, Like I really you wouldn't want to
7:06
Speaker 1: know how much time I spend watching practice tape on
7:09
Speaker 1: backup orderbacks, but that's what I'm looking for, Like guys
7:13
Speaker 1: like Trace mcs really the guy who played for the Ravens,
7:15
Speaker 1: like he went four and oh one preseason. Like that's
7:18
Speaker 1: how I win money on some of these guys. I
7:20
Speaker 1: just ride the hot hand in preseason. So definitely Chris
7:23
Speaker 1: about picking your spots more so than NFL season. Like
7:26
Speaker 1: if there just isn't a bet for me week one
7:28
Speaker 1: in the preseason, I'm just not gonna force it just
7:30
Speaker 1: to put a bet out there, Like I want to
7:32
Speaker 1: make sure I'm getting down money on something that can
7:34
Speaker 1: actually have good information on, Like just don't force stuff
7:37
Speaker 1: up because you got the itch. But like we're about
7:39
Speaker 1: to talk, I don't know, maybe next next week we'll
7:42
Speaker 1: talk preseason games. But the Hall of Fame game was
7:44
Speaker 1: what tomorrow. That's one of those like I'll just bet
7:47
Speaker 1: the under blindly, like I think it's twelve and seven
7:49
Speaker 1: since two thousand on the under. So it's just there's
7:52
Speaker 1: certain games where like, yeah, I'm gonna bet like a
7:54
Speaker 1: hundred of bucks on it, but like real big money,
7:57
Speaker 1: I do what Chris does, Like you're looking for and
8:00
Speaker 1: edge information or you know, like your own local team
8:04
Speaker 1: they're not playing starters and the other team is playing starters.
8:06
Speaker 1: Maybe that first half the books are gonna give you
8:09
Speaker 1: these options, So yeah, shop around. You can make good
8:12
Speaker 1: money on the preseason. Just be careful like it's it's preseason,
8:17
Speaker 1: Like you might be like, oh, I heard this guy's
8:19
Speaker 1: playing the whole first half and he has a good
8:21
Speaker 1: first series and that's it. So please don't don't be
8:24
Speaker 1: using your whole bank roll in the preseason. So you
8:27
Speaker 1: mentioned McVeigh, Are there teams and coaches that it's easier
8:33
Speaker 1: to get that informational advantage on Simon? You go first
8:37
Speaker 1: all about be writers, Like again, I'm I'm not the
8:39
Speaker 1: biggest fan of social media, but I am for information,
8:42
Speaker 1: Like information is king. Follow your beat writers, give support
8:46
Speaker 1: to your local be writers. These people are in the know.
8:49
Speaker 1: So that's something I'm on, Like turn alerts on even
8:53
Speaker 1: during the season. I alert tom you know, it's Schefter,
8:55
Speaker 1: a couple of other guys. Preseason, My alerts are on
8:57
Speaker 1: for everybody because like that's that's information is power. But
9:02
Speaker 1: we already heard Vegas is sitting starters and start with
9:04
Speaker 1: the Jaguars for tomorrow's Hall of Fame game. Like that's
9:06
Speaker 1: important information. I think the total drop by another point.
9:09
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean. You just wanna be on
9:11
Speaker 1: top of these beat writers and getting get information. But
9:15
Speaker 1: what about you in the preseason. I think now that
9:18
Speaker 1: with the growth of you know, betting dfs things like that,
9:21
Speaker 1: I think the beat writers actually understand better than they
9:25
Speaker 1: ever have that there is this kind of niche crowd
9:28
Speaker 1: that is looking for certain types of information. So I
9:30
Speaker 1: think the information is accessible, but you have to really dig.
9:33
Speaker 1: So for example, you know, when I'm following beat writers
9:37
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at their social media accounts and I
9:39
Speaker 1: create Twitter lists and whatnot, I'm not just browsing their
9:42
Speaker 1: tweets in the headlines, I'm actually reading the articles that
9:45
Speaker 1: they're posting. Because usually a beat writer is gonna post
9:48
Speaker 1: an article every single day about a team's practice, and
9:52
Speaker 1: you can glean a lot from that. You know, who's
9:54
Speaker 1: practicing with the twos, the three, like the four's, Um,
9:57
Speaker 1: you know who's you know which quarterback is coming in first? Um?
10:00
Speaker 1: You know who? Who? Who? Do they want to get along?
10:02
Speaker 1: Look who's playing well? You know who's who's playing poorly?
10:05
Speaker 1: Like what who is the offense winning? More? Is a
10:07
Speaker 1: defensive anymore? Sometimes there are joint practices and you can
10:09
Speaker 1: lean a lot from that. They even have the stats
10:11
Speaker 1: from practices at this point. Um. So like there's just
10:14
Speaker 1: a lot of information there that you can clean. Um
10:17
Speaker 1: and the and and then the coaches are a little
10:19
Speaker 1: more forthcoming in terms of what they're gonna do. It's
10:22
Speaker 1: just that you have to kind of dig for the information.
10:24
Speaker 1: But um, you know there's not because there's not really
10:27
Speaker 1: they're not really looking for a competitive advantage. You know
10:30
Speaker 1: a lot of times they'll tell you like, Okay, yeah,
10:31
Speaker 1: this is our plan with with the quarterbacks, this is
10:33
Speaker 1: our plan with um, you know so and so player
10:35
Speaker 1: who might you know be a play a key role
10:38
Speaker 1: in terms of the the outcome. So, Um, the information
10:41
Speaker 1: is there. I think you just have to look for
10:43
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't say necessary that like there's any one
10:46
Speaker 1: team or or that's like easier to get or harder
10:50
Speaker 1: to get information from their others. I just think you
10:53
Speaker 1: have to kind of dig in and not just like
10:54
Speaker 1: look at the headlines or the you know, the characters
10:57
Speaker 1: or whatever. You gotta um go a little deeper. This
11:00
Speaker 1: is gonna sound like a weird question. But when both
11:04
Speaker 1: of you guys, you're watching practice film, you're reading every story,
11:08
Speaker 1: you're seeing who's practicing with the two's who's playing well.
11:12
Speaker 1: You know, there's a story in the New York Post
11:14
Speaker 1: today that Zack Wilson for the Jets continues to be
11:18
Speaker 1: inconsistent and when over four in a passing drill against
11:21
Speaker 1: the first team defense, And how do you record that
11:24
Speaker 1: information in a way that you can go back to it.
11:27
Speaker 1: Do you have a massive spreadsheet that you're putting in
11:30
Speaker 1: notes for every team in every game? Like how are
11:32
Speaker 1: you digesting and then manifesting it so it's actionable. I
11:37
Speaker 1: mainly focus on the quarterbacks just because for me, that's
11:40
Speaker 1: easy to quantify than every little guy. Like there's just
11:43
Speaker 1: too much, right, Like there's just too much and there's
11:45
Speaker 1: too many players. You you drive yourself crazy, like you
11:48
Speaker 1: gotta really try to use your time wise you Right,
11:51
Speaker 1: I've learned that's the biggest advantage I have is watching
11:53
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks and was Zach Wilson. I'm no biggie, Like
11:56
Speaker 1: this kid could throw seven picks tomorrow. I do not
11:59
Speaker 1: care if this is the end of August and this
12:02
Speaker 1: kid is still throwing multiple picks and having over four
12:05
Speaker 1: days in the red zone and like inconsistent, huge problem.
12:09
Speaker 1: But early early like this, getting getting used to things
12:13
Speaker 1: and kind of getting back into will flow. A lot
12:15
Speaker 1: of these guys are trying stuff they wouldn't try, you know,
12:17
Speaker 1: they're trying to push their limits and see what they
12:19
Speaker 1: did in the off season if that's calm and work
12:21
Speaker 1: for them coming into the season. So to me, early
12:23
Speaker 1: days like this, I don't really care. But yeah, once
12:26
Speaker 1: we're starting closer, it's a big deal. I can tell
12:29
Speaker 1: you from my own own reading with the Eagles, Hurts
12:32
Speaker 1: has been inconsistent. Like that's that's a problem, right, because
12:35
Speaker 1: that's what when the knox On Hurts has been He's
12:36
Speaker 1: an inconsistent quarterback. So yeah, I'm following away, brother, Like
12:40
Speaker 1: I I got a spreadsheet where I've written that down,
12:42
Speaker 1: and I'll revisit it because I'll keep updating as I go.
12:45
Speaker 1: And if every week I keep writing hurts is inconsistent,
12:49
Speaker 1: you you bet I am gonna be ready to fade
12:52
Speaker 1: then or lesson, just lessen my ideal of what I
12:55
Speaker 1: was gonna bet on the Eagles going into this season.
12:57
Speaker 1: Like that's one of those things where I already had
12:59
Speaker 1: already to a joy. I had mentality heading into the
13:01
Speaker 1: season on the team. Now I let them show me, like,
13:03
Speaker 1: let them show me what they actually are and keep
13:06
Speaker 1: adjusting off of that because we talk all the time,
13:08
Speaker 1: right teams that are the way a team is September
13:10
Speaker 1: there nowhere near the same team in November. So you're
13:12
Speaker 1: kind of doing the same thing in preseason. Like the
13:15
Speaker 1: guy on the first week of August, he's gonna be
13:17
Speaker 1: a different guy by the final week of August. And
13:20
Speaker 1: then I can't be stubborn. I just have to keep
13:21
Speaker 1: updating and pick the information in because Chris will touch
13:24
Speaker 1: on here, it's it's a big deal of the process,
13:26
Speaker 1: all the information. This is how you find edges before
13:29
Speaker 1: the season starts. What's the process, right, bun So for me,
13:32
Speaker 1: I mean I have my my master spreadsheet with you know,
13:36
Speaker 1: my entire NFL model, which you know includes you know,
13:38
Speaker 1: everything for fantasy and betting, so's I have every player
13:42
Speaker 1: in that spreadsheet. I'm constantly updating the rosters and just
13:45
Speaker 1: you know, tweaking widow things even for you know, sometimes
13:48
Speaker 1: for regular season projections just based on things I'm hearing,
13:51
Speaker 1: uh in the preseason. And then I also I'm a
13:53
Speaker 1: big Google Docs uh person as well, So like for
13:56
Speaker 1: every slate, I'll just start a new Google Doc and
13:59
Speaker 1: I'll just just kind of start by just looking over
14:02
Speaker 1: to slate and um, it's kind of second nature to me,
14:04
Speaker 1: just but just kind of looking for things that I
14:07
Speaker 1: think could be an edge and just kind of going
14:09
Speaker 1: from there. I mean, there's a lot of ways to
14:11
Speaker 1: do it. Like, for example, I think you can kind
14:14
Speaker 1: of start with a trend and then you can say, okay, um,
14:17
Speaker 1: you know, for example, like we've seen under like preseason
14:21
Speaker 1: games tend to be closed. There's you know, it's both
14:24
Speaker 1: teams are playing back up. So anytime you see a
14:27
Speaker 1: spread that's pretty large, um, there's usually value on it.
14:31
Speaker 1: So like underdogs of more than five points, especially when
14:34
Speaker 1: it's like nonconference, when there's like no familiarity, and they're
14:37
Speaker 1: just all both coaches are just trying out different things,
14:40
Speaker 1: like underdogs of five and a half or more UHT
14:44
Speaker 1: and thirty since for so I mna say, okay, well,
14:47
Speaker 1: which who what? What teams ship that trend? That doesn't
14:49
Speaker 1: mean I'm gonna blind me better bet on them. But
14:51
Speaker 1: now I'll say, I wonder, you know, let me look
14:55
Speaker 1: at the quarterbacks for these two teams. Who you know,
14:56
Speaker 1: who's who's gonna face off? You know, third strink, four
14:59
Speaker 1: string things like that, UM, and just kind of go
15:02
Speaker 1: from there. Like for example, the Jaguars for this Hall
15:05
Speaker 1: of Fame game, they just signed Kyle Slaughter and he's
15:09
Speaker 1: one of the better preseason quarterbacks. I think it's over
15:12
Speaker 1: eight yards in attempt with eleven touchdowns the one pit
15:14
Speaker 1: career in the preseason. So you know he's going against
15:18
Speaker 1: like if of Vegas plays their four stream qb uh,
15:22
Speaker 1: he's like this. I think it's Chase Garbers. I believe
15:25
Speaker 1: it is. It's like some undrafted free agent who's just
15:27
Speaker 1: I would expect Slater to win that matchup. So like
15:30
Speaker 1: just kind of looking for edges like that. UM. There's
15:32
Speaker 1: a lot of different starting points, but I'm essentially just
15:34
Speaker 1: kind of like looking for something to latch onto and
15:37
Speaker 1: then um, digging a little deeper from there and kind
15:41
Speaker 1: of a gut check and saying, Okay, maybe I am
15:43
Speaker 1: intrigued by this, or no, I don't. I'm gonna go
15:45
Speaker 1: a different way. And you know, to talking about like
15:48
Speaker 1: that example Simon gave of Zack Wilson and how he's struggling. Um,
15:53
Speaker 1: if I see that, I actually think that's that could
15:56
Speaker 1: be a positive for betting the Jets because like, let's
15:59
Speaker 1: say exactly has been struggling all camp, Well, maybe then
16:02
Speaker 1: they do at him play uh, you know, deeper into
16:06
Speaker 1: the second or third preseason game, whereas the other team
16:10
Speaker 1: isn't really playing their starters. So a struggling back Boson
16:14
Speaker 1: or struggling Daniel Jones or struggling Jalen Hurts, like that
16:17
Speaker 1: can be a positive forbetting on that team because they're
16:21
Speaker 1: gonna let them get work in and they're not gonna
16:24
Speaker 1: take them out until they score a touchdown or two.
16:26
Speaker 1: And they're still starting caliber players that are gonna be
16:30
Speaker 1: playing against largely backups that aren't trying to win. So, um,
16:33
Speaker 1: it's just how you kind of use the information and
16:36
Speaker 1: and and kind of put it together and tell that um,
16:39
Speaker 1: kind of let it weads you to what you think
16:42
Speaker 1: is the outcome is going to be. Uh. The only
16:44
Speaker 1: takeaway from this is that you should bet Kyle Slaughter.
16:47
Speaker 1: He's the preseason m v P. Wherever he goes, that's
16:51
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Speaker 1: eight nine, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net
18:31
Speaker 1: in West Virginia, raybon You and our other BFF Sean
18:37
Speaker 1: Kroner recorded on the Fantasy Flex podcast. A couple of
18:40
Speaker 1: weeks ago to one. To be exact, your season long
18:44
Speaker 1: Player Props episode, which is actually one of the biggest
18:47
Speaker 1: episodes we do all year. You and Kroner both are
18:50
Speaker 1: phenomenal A projections powering action network player projections, which is
18:55
Speaker 1: great if you want to find value in season long props.
19:02
Speaker 1: You and Kerner and me agree on one quarterback where
19:08
Speaker 1: there is an opportunity, Mr Baker Mayfield, explain yourself and
19:14
Speaker 1: then be ready to be mocked by Mr Simon Hunter.
19:19
Speaker 1: I'm just not buying Baker. I'm fading him. I like
19:21
Speaker 1: his under twenty one and a half passing touchdowns. I
19:24
Speaker 1: know Kerner X is under yardage as well, but I
19:27
Speaker 1: think there's just a lot of red flags. And you know,
19:30
Speaker 1: first of all, Baker is one of those guys that
19:33
Speaker 1: he's probably gonna start in week one, but if he
19:37
Speaker 1: struggles there there's two other guys that they could try
19:41
Speaker 1: out or if they have a bad season. Like you know,
19:43
Speaker 1: when you're when you're projecting player props, right, like the
19:46
Speaker 1: books are usually projecting uh sixteen seventeen games played for
19:51
Speaker 1: these these quarterbacks that they're posting props for, and so
19:55
Speaker 1: um a guy like Baker, I think he's one of
19:57
Speaker 1: the few quarterbacks that has props listed where they need
20:00
Speaker 1: to start week one, so they get action on it.
20:02
Speaker 1: But I think some things could go wrong within that season. Um,
20:07
Speaker 1: and you know, maybe Caroline is out of it and
20:09
Speaker 1: they want to look at Matt four o four a
20:12
Speaker 1: week or two because they're you know six and nine
20:15
Speaker 1: or five and ten, you know, heading into the last
20:17
Speaker 1: two weeks to the season. And even if Baker was
20:19
Speaker 1: like not terrible but just okay, they might say, oh,
20:21
Speaker 1: we want to look at the young guy. And Baker
20:23
Speaker 1: gets benched and then he falls short of his prop
20:25
Speaker 1: for that reason. Um, you know they're talking about Sam
20:29
Speaker 1: Donald is still kind of in a battle. So you know,
20:32
Speaker 1: if Baker has a bad game or two mid season,
20:35
Speaker 1: you know, maybe he gets the bench, even if it's
20:36
Speaker 1: for a game or two. But also just looking at
20:39
Speaker 1: Caroline in the period. Uh, last year, they have fourteen
20:42
Speaker 1: passing touchdowns in seventeen games. Uh the year and obviously,
20:46
Speaker 1: you know, quarterback situation not great. The year before that
20:49
Speaker 1: they had Teddy Bridgewater sixteen passing touchdowns in sixteen games,
20:54
Speaker 1: and like, this is just a team that they really
20:57
Speaker 1: don't have touchdown makers outside of Krick and McCaffrey, like
21:01
Speaker 1: DJ Moore is their best receiver. Uh. He constantly clear
21:05
Speaker 1: as a thousand yards his career highest four touchdowns. So
21:08
Speaker 1: when you're best receiver UH career highest four touchdowns, that's
21:12
Speaker 1: kind of a problem when you're betting on a player
21:15
Speaker 1: that we don't even know get you know, the full
21:18
Speaker 1: seventeen starts to go over this total. So I liked
21:21
Speaker 1: fading Baker Mayfield because I think you have a lot
21:24
Speaker 1: of outs in terms of how he could fall short
21:28
Speaker 1: of his season long player props despite starting Week one. Alright,
21:33
Speaker 1: sign in agree or disagree? I agree. I'll make it quick.
21:37
Speaker 1: You know I'm down on Baker. I just I don't
21:39
Speaker 1: like the vibes of the whole situation with him, and
21:42
Speaker 1: now I'm looking at him an undersized guy can't stay healthy.
21:46
Speaker 1: Going from we can we can argue about what we
21:48
Speaker 1: think is tefanscise. I think he's a really talented offensive mind.
21:52
Speaker 1: So a Carolina team that just hasn't produced any offensive
21:55
Speaker 1: you know, consistency, they just aren't. And you said it's
21:58
Speaker 1: because it qub position. But I just don't see a
22:00
Speaker 1: Baker being down much of an upgrade with Teddy Bridgewater
22:03
Speaker 1: when he was down there, So I'm down on it.
22:05
Speaker 1: I just I would not bet any over that's associated
22:08
Speaker 1: with Baker, even his interception over. I wouldn't bet just
22:10
Speaker 1: because I just can't see him playing out the season
22:12
Speaker 1: like he's just an under guy for that simple fact.
22:15
Speaker 1: Leap one love Carolina right like them Mr Brown's that's
22:19
Speaker 1: great revenge game. Other than that, I just I'm just
22:22
Speaker 1: not gonna be a positive Carolina guy this year. Alright,
22:25
Speaker 1: So Raybon, Uh, as you think about the season long
22:29
Speaker 1: props that are available, what else are you looking at?
22:35
Speaker 1: So it's crazy because a lot of the props shown
22:37
Speaker 1: and I talked about, actually all of the props we
22:39
Speaker 1: talked about pretty much, um have have the lines have
22:43
Speaker 1: completely moved and so uh, they're like, right now is
22:47
Speaker 1: actually a pretty dead time, Like a lot of the
22:49
Speaker 1: lines have adjusted after that initial like wave of bets
22:52
Speaker 1: coming in. So, um, there's a couple that I like,
22:55
Speaker 1: But I think we're gonna start having to wait for
22:58
Speaker 1: more news to come in and so that we can
23:00
Speaker 1: react and get some edges because now that you know
23:03
Speaker 1: we're talking about props for a few weeks and betting
23:05
Speaker 1: on him, like the lines are a lot sharper than
23:07
Speaker 1: they were two weeks ago. But Patrick mahomes under three
23:10
Speaker 1: fifty and a half rushing yards. UH. He would need
23:12
Speaker 1: to average twenty point six or more rushing yards per
23:16
Speaker 1: game for seventeen games UH to clear that number. He's
23:20
Speaker 1: only done that once in his four years as the starter. UH.
23:24
Speaker 1: And he's only top three hundred fifty once in four
23:27
Speaker 1: years as a starter as well, even if you adjusted
23:31
Speaker 1: and and add some yardage to account for the seventeen
23:34
Speaker 1: game season instead of sixteen. So UM, I think this
23:37
Speaker 1: is one of the few bets that I season long
23:40
Speaker 1: props that I see on FANDU still that UM hasn't
23:43
Speaker 1: like adjusted to a point where there's no real value
23:46
Speaker 1: on either side. I think, I think that's my favorite one.
23:50
Speaker 1: And then a long shot bet. I like Nagi Harris
23:53
Speaker 1: most rushing yards in the league at eighteen to one.
23:56
Speaker 1: You know, we talked about we like the stealers. They
23:58
Speaker 1: could play ball control with defense. He was second in
24:01
Speaker 1: attempts UH last year and fourth in yards. And you
24:04
Speaker 1: know he's entering year two running back to peek right away. UH.
24:07
Speaker 1: And you know last year it was really just the
24:10
Speaker 1: line struggled and so he was one of those guys,
24:12
Speaker 1: you know, three point five, three point eight, you know,
24:15
Speaker 1: that was kind of his yards per carry most weeks.
24:16
Speaker 1: But you know, a lot could change year over year.
24:19
Speaker 1: I think the line is gonna be a little bit better,
24:21
Speaker 1: and you get some you get some positive regression. A
24:24
Speaker 1: long runner two. You know, maybe Henry gets you know,
24:26
Speaker 1: misses another few games, or you know, all the guys
24:29
Speaker 1: at the top miss a couple of games. And I
24:31
Speaker 1: think Naji is right there. He's he's built like a house.
24:33
Speaker 1: So um, I like Naji Harris, who to lead the
24:36
Speaker 1: league in Russian at eighteen o one, Nagi Harris. Naji
24:40
Speaker 1: Harris just seems like he is coming to play nasty football. Also,
24:49
Speaker 1: what this says to me is that you're a big
24:52
Speaker 1: believer in Mitchell true bisky, and defense is having to
24:59
Speaker 1: keep him on. I don't know about all that. I
25:02
Speaker 1: just think I just think that like with like when
25:04
Speaker 1: you were for example, when you're projecting running backs, like
25:07
Speaker 1: there's such a low um like there's it's yards for
25:11
Speaker 1: Carrie is just it's it's very volatile year over year
25:14
Speaker 1: and it's a very small spread. It's like the lowest
25:17
Speaker 1: guy in your projections is probably gonna be like three
25:19
Speaker 1: point nine or four point oh, and then the highest
25:21
Speaker 1: guy will be like five. And so you know, all
25:24
Speaker 1: you need is a couple of those long runs, which
25:26
Speaker 1: Nagi still has that potential for, and he's gonna get
25:30
Speaker 1: the volume. I mean, if Pittsburgh does what we think
25:33
Speaker 1: they're gonna do, they're gonna play good d You know,
25:35
Speaker 1: they're gonna try to manage the game with Rubisky or
25:38
Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe it ends up being rude Off
25:40
Speaker 1: or Piket sometimes. But we know how Pittsburgh is gonna
25:42
Speaker 1: play regardless it was that quarterback. It's gonna start and
25:45
Speaker 1: end with with Nagy Harris sign. What are you gonna say? Oh, well,
25:49
Speaker 1: so I'll just do real quick. I bet hundreds of
25:52
Speaker 1: player props already. I would love to hear your take
25:54
Speaker 1: on my three long shots. I different wide receiver player props.
25:58
Speaker 1: So my first one was and uh ds, you know,
26:02
Speaker 1: bi all know he's on the chiefs Now. He's sixty
26:04
Speaker 1: one to lead the league in passing yards. Juju Smith
26:08
Speaker 1: douch uh, I get it, he's playing the slot for
26:11
Speaker 1: the chiefs Now. But if fifty two want to lead
26:13
Speaker 1: the league and receiving yards with my Homes, Like that's
26:16
Speaker 1: pretty good value. And then Allen Robinson on the Rams.
26:20
Speaker 1: I don't think people get how good this guy is.
26:22
Speaker 1: Like he's just been withering away with the Bears, Cooper Cup,
26:27
Speaker 1: MVP season, last years, Super m v P, Out of
26:31
Speaker 1: this World. Everyone's gonna be shifted towards him, Allen Robinson,
26:35
Speaker 1: He's gonna be open. He's gonna get a lot of touches.
26:37
Speaker 1: Am I crazy thinking all these guys are better than
26:39
Speaker 1: fifty two one or great Values right now? Or am
26:41
Speaker 1: I just dreaming? I think Juju would be tough, just
26:45
Speaker 1: because I do think that. I don't think the targets
26:48
Speaker 1: are gonna be deep enough downfield, partly because they do
26:50
Speaker 1: have MVS. So I think MVS is actually pretty intriguing.
26:55
Speaker 1: Like he's never been a volume guy, but you know
26:59
Speaker 1: he is going to see a like a step up
27:01
Speaker 1: in terms of his target share, I think. And Patrick Mahomes,
27:05
Speaker 1: you know he can chuck a deep so I don't
27:08
Speaker 1: hate that one. I think Jude, I think he's gonna
27:10
Speaker 1: kind of cancel out Jude Judo Um and a rob
27:13
Speaker 1: I think I like the Canfarry and a rat play.
27:16
Speaker 1: I do think what ultimately may need to happen though,
27:19
Speaker 1: is Cup may actually need to get hurt, Like if
27:21
Speaker 1: he may not just need to draw a coverage away,
27:24
Speaker 1: he may actually need to get hurt. And so the
27:26
Speaker 1: Rams just really have nobody else and that you know,
27:28
Speaker 1: they still have Matthew Stafford, there's still They're still have
27:31
Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh, and so they'll just figure out a way
27:33
Speaker 1: and maybe Allen Robinson becomes that dude who you know
27:36
Speaker 1: gets a hundred ninety target And we've seen Allen Robinson,
27:39
Speaker 1: I believe, who had the way weekend targets when yere
27:41
Speaker 1: he was used in the top five, So you know, yeah,
27:43
Speaker 1: he's he's gotten a hundred fifty plus targets four times
27:45
Speaker 1: in his career. Um, you know, so I think that
27:49
Speaker 1: there's an avenue to that. So I think, yeah, Robinson
27:51
Speaker 1: is probably my favorite envious, Like I think he could
27:55
Speaker 1: have a season and people think I think he could
27:57
Speaker 1: return value on his fantasy adp um. You know, don't
28:01
Speaker 1: hate it, juju, probably not, just because I do think
28:04
Speaker 1: he'll he'll get like more of the underneath targets that
28:06
Speaker 1: kind of help help Mahomes, you know, because you know
28:09
Speaker 1: how the defense is kind of adjusted to like when
28:11
Speaker 1: they do want to look deep, they needed more guys
28:14
Speaker 1: over the short area the field. And I think that's
28:16
Speaker 1: why they're like, all right, we're gonna you know, trade
28:18
Speaker 1: Tyreek will kind of revamping and more intermediate uh and
28:22
Speaker 1: underneath guys. So I think that ROJJ is going to
28:24
Speaker 1: play by the way NVS. For anybody listening is UH
28:28
Speaker 1: Marquez Valdez Scantling who signed with the Chiefs UH front
28:33
Speaker 1: Packers one more weapon that Aaron Rodgers lost during the offseason.
28:38
Speaker 1: Chris Raban, host of the Fantasy Flex podcast, member of
28:42
Speaker 1: the Convinced Me team which will come back UH during
28:45
Speaker 1: the fall along with Me, Simon Shean, Karner, Jenner, Rivel
28:49
Speaker 1: Samantha Paved, the whole gang. He does it all, folks.
28:55
Speaker 1: He's a projectionist, he's a writer, he's a video talent.
28:58
Speaker 1: He's an audio talent. He is Chris raybun O. Wait chat, Chad,
29:02
Speaker 1: there you go. Let me. I forgot to mention one
29:05
Speaker 1: thing better Ravens in the preseason. It's the best Betton
29:08
Speaker 1: Sports twenty and oh the last twenty straight up, the
29:11
Speaker 1: game seven two against the friend the last overall since
29:14
Speaker 1: hardball U became the coach forty and twelve seventy seven percent.
29:19
Speaker 1: They're one of there, like the only team that actually
29:22
Speaker 1: like seems to try to win preseason games, uh, in
29:27
Speaker 1: this current era. So I just wanted to mention that
29:29
Speaker 1: we always like to give people takeaways. I think our
29:31
Speaker 1: takeaways here are bet On Kyle Slaughter of the Jack's
29:37
Speaker 1: bet On the Ravens and John Harbaugh and uh Fade
29:42
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield and his PLAP props for the year. Like
29:45
Speaker 1: I said, he's Chris Raybon along with Simon Hunter, producer
29:48
Speaker 1: extra ord Near, Matt Mitchel. I am Jad Milman. There
29:51
Speaker 1: has been The Favorites podcast from Volume podcast Network, downloaders
29:55
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Speaker 1: give us watch stars. Feedback is a gift thany can
30:02
Speaker 1: you want? Until next time? I Love you, M