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Just How Important Is The Upcoming Election? · Conversations: Special Guests with Preston Scott

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, friends, welcome to the third hour The Morning
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Show with Preston Scott. I'm literally turning the page of
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the Rundown channeling my inner rush with that. Great to
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  Speaker 1: be with you this morning, ruminators. Thanks so much. It
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  Speaker 1: is the thirty sixth show, and please to add back
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  Speaker 1: with me in studio the president of the James Madison Institute,
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  Speaker 1: doctor Bob McClure.
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  Speaker 3: Doctor Bob, how are you. Good morning, sir?
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  Speaker 1: How are you You know we were just talking. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you live here too, I do. And the elections, whether
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  Speaker 1: it's state, whether it's national, or whether it's local. You know,
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  Speaker 1: Tip O'Neil was right, all politics is local. But the
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  Speaker 1: elections are going to be remarkably impactful.
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  Speaker 3: They really are.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, you have some really interesting elections in the
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  Speaker 2: capital city, and I know your audience extends far beyond
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  Speaker 2: the capital city, but it matters in the third largest
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  Speaker 2: state in the country what happens here in Tallahassee. So
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  Speaker 2: you have that at a state level. Obviously, you have
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  Speaker 2: a presidential election in a US Senate race and six amendments,
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  Speaker 2: of which three or four of those will be incredibly
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  Speaker 2: impactful if they pass. And then nationally you're looking at
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  Speaker 2: a US Senate in a House in a presidential race. Right,
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  Speaker 2: So you know, elections have consequences, as they say, and
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  Speaker 2: so what happens November fifth is going to affect not
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  Speaker 2: only the folks in Tallahassee, but also across the state
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  Speaker 2: and obviously nationally as well.
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  Speaker 1: Let's kind of do that in order, and let's start
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  Speaker 1: with the rock and the smaller pond here in Tallahassee.
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  Speaker 1: Because I agree with you. I've not heard anybody else
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  Speaker 1: express that thought that what happens in the capital city
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  Speaker 1: of the third largest state in the nation echoes, it reverberates,
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  Speaker 1: it matters. I have suggested doctor McClure that the legislature
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  Speaker 1: needs to do a couple of things. One is, it
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  Speaker 1: needs to set a law that says any city that
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  Speaker 1: is above one hundred thousand population must have districts. Tallahassee'
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  Speaker 1: is the only city in the state that doesn't have districts. Secondly,
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  Speaker 1: you can't settle an election in the primary. You can't
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  Speaker 1: have sixteen percent of the electorate deciding something as important
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  Speaker 1: as a city commissioner, a city a mayor county commissioner.
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  Speaker 1: If there's three people in a race, the top two
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  Speaker 1: vote getters, whether it's eighty twenty or fifty forty or
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  Speaker 1: whatever it is, go to the general election.
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  Speaker 3: Your thoughts, Now, I agree with the districts.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, there's no doubt in a city the size
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  Speaker 2: of Tallahassee, we should have districts. It allows for each
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  Speaker 2: area to have a voice, a chance at least have
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  Speaker 2: a chance at having a voice, a bully pulpit in
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  Speaker 2: their own district.
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  Speaker 3: I think that's very important. I think we kind of know.
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  Speaker 2: The history of the August elections and why they happen
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  Speaker 2: and driving turnout, and you know, it's a huge advantage
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  Speaker 2: for incumbents. And then I so because Tallahassee is the
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  Speaker 2: capital city of I would argue the most dynamic state
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  Speaker 2: in the country.
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  Speaker 3: We have a thousand people moving here today, Preston right.
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  Speaker 2: Very diverse, you know, along with Texas and California, the
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  Speaker 2: most diverse state in the country.
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  Speaker 3: This is a melting pot. It is.
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  Speaker 2: It absolutely is. And it's also a place where people
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  Speaker 2: come the state to chase their version of the American dream.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, it really is kind of that place where
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  Speaker 2: people decide to move to chase their version of the
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  Speaker 2: American dream. In Florida. You know, Palm Beach has become
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  Speaker 2: the Wall Street of the South. That is not my quote.
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  Speaker 2: That is from Forbes magazine. Miami has become the new
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  Speaker 2: Silicon Valley.
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  Speaker 3: That is not my quote.
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  Speaker 2: That is a national publication saying that. And so Florida
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  Speaker 2: has really become that way. Now we are trickling back
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  Speaker 2: towards Tallahassee, and you are the capital city leadership decision making.
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  Speaker 2: The things that happen here have national implications.
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  Speaker 1: Doctor Bob McClure with the James Madison Institute, long relationship
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  Speaker 1: with JMI over the years, You've sat in here once
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  Speaker 1: or twice election night?
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  Speaker 3: I have, I absolutely have.
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  Speaker 2: It's one of my favorite things to do is to
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  Speaker 2: sit in here with you on election night and watch
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  Speaker 2: the returns come in old school.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know if I have the stomach to do
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  Speaker 1: it this time around. I mean literally, I don't know
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  Speaker 1: if my nerves could handle it. Right before we get
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  Speaker 1: to the national stuffy, state of Florida has been in
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  Speaker 1: a good place. I think the state models a what
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  Speaker 1: a balanced budget can do, be what a consumption tax
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  Speaker 1: can do over a personal income tax. I think in
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  Speaker 1: a lot of ways the idea of a state being
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  Speaker 1: a Petri dish for how to work policy and refine
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  Speaker 1: it and make it better. Yeah, we've got our problems.
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  Speaker 1: We've got issues to absolutely do. Yeah, what do you
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  Speaker 1: think is most important that's going to kind of be settled?
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  Speaker 1: Is it the constitutional amendments or is it the legislative
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  Speaker 1: makeup and kind of setting the table for who the
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  Speaker 1: next governor is going to be.
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  Speaker 2: I think in Florida, the two most important constitutional amendments
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  Speaker 2: three and four, legalizing marijuana and the abortion amendment are
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  Speaker 2: the two most impactful from a state standpoint for a
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  Speaker 2: couple of reasons. One, the left in Florida has been
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  Speaker 2: completely obliterated over the last twenty years. Yeah, okay, from
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  Speaker 2: school choice to election integrity to the tax and regulatory
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  Speaker 2: environment the left has They are completely boxed in with
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  Speaker 2: nowhere to go.
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  Speaker 3: And that is a reflection of the.
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  Speaker 2: Democratic Party, which reflects the values of the left generally speaking.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, would you say that Florida's success has has enhanced
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  Speaker 1: that suppression.
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  Speaker 3: There's no doubt.
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  Speaker 2: And and and by suppression, you mean good policy is
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  Speaker 2: good politics. And that's what's happening here in Florida. We're
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  Speaker 2: not you know, Lord helps. Somebody tweets out that you're
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  Speaker 2: talking about suppression Presston. We're not talking about oppression or suppression.
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  Speaker 2: I'm joking with you.
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  Speaker 3: Sure, yeah, we know how people work, right.
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  Speaker 2: But good policy is good politics. There's a reason a
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  Speaker 2: thousand people are moving here today. There's a reason why.
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  Speaker 3: Uh.
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  Speaker 2: I believe in the census Florida was undercounted. We should
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  Speaker 2: have gotten an extra congressional district. But that's another conspiracy theory.
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  Speaker 2: Uh we can talk about another day. But Florida has
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  Speaker 2: become the place you can you can chase your versus
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  Speaker 2: of the American dream. And so whether it's the goatory environment
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  Speaker 2: in taxes, whether it's healthcare, whether it's election integrity, universal
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  Speaker 2: school choice, a place to retire, start a business. Any
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  Speaker 2: index did you see in any Fortune magazine, Forbes, the
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  Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, The state of Florida is always in
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  Speaker 2: the top five, and it's usually number one when it
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  Speaker 2: comes to the large states, like the top ten larger states.
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  Speaker 3: So that's what we see. Good policy is good politics.
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  Speaker 2: I tell people all the time, I don't care about
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  Speaker 2: being a Republican or a Democrat. To me, it's about
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  Speaker 2: movement conservatism. That is that movement conservatism, that is the
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  Speaker 2: courage to make decisions like Jeb did as governor, like
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  Speaker 2: some of our speakers and our presidents have done over
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  Speaker 2: the last thirty years to make Florida what it is
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  Speaker 2: today and what happens.
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  Speaker 3: People are moving here, People are moving here.
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  Speaker 1: And thus far leaving their politics behind. If they came
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  Speaker 1: from a blue state and we're thinking a little bit left,
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  Speaker 1: they've changed at it, it would appear yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, No, I mean, look at you know, from
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  Speaker 2: a from a quantitative standpoint, just look at party registration right,
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  Speaker 2: from a qualitative standpoint, just look at election numbers.
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  Speaker 3: Trump won.
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  Speaker 2: And look, I'm not here to talk about Trump as
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  Speaker 2: you know, as this raging movement conservatism. Conservative Trump won
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  Speaker 2: Florida in twenty sixteen by one percent. Barack Obama won
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  Speaker 2: Florida twice by one percent, Rick Scott governor's race one percent.
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  Speaker 2: All of those one percent one percent. Trump won twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty one Florida by four hundred thousand votes. Ron DeSantis
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  Speaker 2: beat Andrew Gillum by forty thousand votes the first time.
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  Speaker 2: The second time, he won Florida by more votes than
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  Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom won California. Now they may still be counting
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  Speaker 2: votes in California, but the reality is, yeah, the reality
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  Speaker 2: is that Ron DeSantis won Florida by more votes than
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  Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom. So anecdotally, qualitative, qualitatively, and quantitatively, the state
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  Speaker 2: of Florida is become I mean more red, and by red,
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  Speaker 2: I mean movement conservative. Good policy is good politics. Because
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  Speaker 2: here's the last thing to preston. Everybody in their private
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  Speaker 2: life is a conservative. Yeah, the most liberal left wing
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  Speaker 2: person in politics lives their personal life. They want the
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  Speaker 2: best schools for their children, They want the most money
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  Speaker 2: in their pocket, They want a future for their children
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  Speaker 2: and their grandchildren. Those are simple conservative policies. Everyone in
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  Speaker 2: their private life is a conservative. It's different in their
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  Speaker 2: public lives.
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  Speaker 1: Back with you, twenty one past the hour, doctor Bob McClure,
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  Speaker 1: James Madison Institute, All right, November fifth.
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  Speaker 3: It's crazy, it is.
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  Speaker 1: I don't want to put all my cookies in the
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  Speaker 1: basket of the bakery in Pennsylvania. That says Trump's gonna win, right,
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  Speaker 1: because they were wrong in twenty twenty.
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  Speaker 3: Right, But do you believe the polling It would depend
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  Speaker 3: on which pole.
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  Speaker 1: So I struggle buying that. Suddenly Kamala Harris, who was
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  Speaker 1: the first one out in the Democrat primary, who is
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  Speaker 1: seemingly not very intelligent. Yeah, has suddenly become the flavor
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  Speaker 1: of the month. No.
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  Speaker 2: I think if you look at twenty sixteen, you look
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  Speaker 2: at twenty twenty, Donald Trump underpolled by three to four percent,
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  Speaker 2: Biden overpolled. So if you look at the races by
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  Speaker 2: state by state, in every you know, the important swing states,
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  Speaker 2: Biden was up four points, six points, six points, seven
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  Speaker 2: points different places like that. Okay, and as we all know,
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  Speaker 2: we can debate what happened, but it was very very
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  Speaker 2: very close. Let's just leave it there. Right now, they're
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  Speaker 2: basically even depending on the poll. There are pulsters that
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  Speaker 2: I trust more than others. I think there are polls
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  Speaker 2: that drive the news. But I also think there are
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  Speaker 2: polsters that are very interested in getting it right, and
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  Speaker 2: I'd be happy to year with those those with you.
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  Speaker 2: But I think today Trump would win, and I think
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  Speaker 2: he would win Pennsylvania.
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  Speaker 3: I think he would win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. I
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  Speaker 3: think he would probably win Michigan today. Now tomorrow all
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  Speaker 3: bets are off, But today I think Wisconsin would be
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  Speaker 3: very close. I don't know I don't know about Wisconsin.
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  Speaker 2: I think there'd be fifty two senators. I don't think
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  Speaker 2: they're gonna get to fifty three. I think they'd end
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  Speaker 2: up with fifty two. They're gonna win West Virginia, that's
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  Speaker 2: a gimme. They're gonna win Montana. That puts you at
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  Speaker 2: fifty one. And watch Maryland. Larry Hogan, former Republican governor
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  Speaker 2: of the state of Maryland, is running for the US Senate,
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  Speaker 2: and I think he makes it fifty two. Now caucus, well, no,
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  Speaker 2: he's going to caucus with the Republicans. Yeah, but he'll
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  Speaker 2: be the Joe Manchin of the Republican barn will he will.
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  Speaker 3: But that gets into fifty two.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think if you look at Ohio, Bernie Moreno,
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  Speaker 2: or you look at Carrie Lake, they are what I'm seeing.
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  Speaker 2: They're polling behind Trump in those states.
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  Speaker 3: So and then the House.
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  Speaker 2: I think the Republicans hold the House with a slim
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  Speaker 2: majority today.
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  Speaker 3: This is all today. Things change.
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  Speaker 1: If Donald Trump were to win reelection somehow overcome the
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  Speaker 1: landslide of opposition in the media in polling, does he
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  Speaker 1: face the headwinds in the Congress that he faced the
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  Speaker 1: last time, or is it a different story.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's a completely different story because this Republican Party,
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  Speaker 2: for good or for ill, is not the Republican Party.
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  Speaker 3: That was caught off guard in twenty sixteen. So you
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  Speaker 3: still had the remnants of the Bush.
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  Speaker 2: Cheney, Romney McConnell model of the Republican Party.
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  Speaker 3: If we just.
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  Speaker 2: Continue to be nice to the media, if we just
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  Speaker 2: continue to oppose uh, you know, you know, if we
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  Speaker 2: be nicer to illegal immigrants, will win. And it's like
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  Speaker 2: Lucy and Charlie with the football, they would always lose
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  Speaker 2: by three points. Oh, but let's try it again. Trump
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  Speaker 2: completely changed that model. He turned it on its head.
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  Speaker 2: That Republican Party no longer exists. And you see it
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  Speaker 2: by the two Chinees who just endorsed Donald Trump in
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  Speaker 2: the response on the part of the Republican Party, and
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  Speaker 2: so this kind of anger and great, you know, nobody cared.
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  Speaker 2: So I think the headwinds would be in the administrative state,
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  Speaker 2: not in Congress. And that is going to be the
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  Speaker 2: challenge should Donald Trump win. It's going to be the
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  Speaker 2: administrative state pushing back as opposed to a Congress. Assuming
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  Speaker 2: he carried he has of houses pushing back.
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  Speaker 1: There will be, in my opinion, a requirement for them
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  Speaker 1: to address the national debt. Is there a will in
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  Speaker 1: your opinion to do that? Because Trump hasn't talked about it, right,
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  Speaker 1: But it has to happen.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're talking about politicians, preston, So that's dicey.
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  Speaker 3: I mean it has to be done.
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  Speaker 1: You talk about a massive topic that could be boiled
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  Speaker 1: down to everybody's home and wallet and credit card, right,
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  Speaker 1: and I mean that's a that's low hanging fruit.
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  Speaker 3: It is it is.
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  Speaker 2: I think given this inflationary state, it is a historic opportunity.
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  Speaker 2: That is a silver lining of what the spending we've
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: been seeing out of DC in the sense that it
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  Speaker 2: is an opportunity to address that.
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  Speaker 3: The question in Congress is who's going to lead on
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  Speaker 3: it in that area?
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  Speaker 2: And the question is in the Trump administration who's going
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  Speaker 2: to lead on that? But I do think given inflation
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  Speaker 2: and all of the spending, Americans recognize this cannot continue.
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  Speaker 1: Good to see you, Thanks for having me, doctor, Bob McClure,
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  Speaker 1: James Madison Institute. He'll be back with us next month,
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  Speaker 1: which will be our final visit before the election. That
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: ought to be fun. We might carve out a little
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: extra time. It's Tuesday here in the morning show