Latest / Political Capital with Rob Shaw / Rob Sick = Guest Host Aileen | Political Capital Daily

Transcript

Rob Sick = Guest Host Aileen | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 2: It's Thursday, October 21st, 2026, and this is Political Capital Daily.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us this morning. I'm Aileen Machel. I'm
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  Speaker 2: a communications strategy consultant and former longtime NDP staffer. Rob
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  Speaker 2: is off today. He's fighting heroically against a cold like
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  Speaker 2: the hero he is. So I'm hosting. But I'm not
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  Speaker 2: alone here. I have Ali Blades here with me, longtime
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  Speaker 2: skilled politico, former chief of staff to the BC Conservatives,
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  Speaker 2: Trevor Halford, and a conservative political advisor. Good morning, Ali.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, Ali, did you know this about Rob that when
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  Speaker 2: he gets a cold, it gets pretty dramatic?
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  Speaker 3: I'm shocked.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think some listeners might already know this about him.
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  Speaker 2: So if you're listening, Rob, we are rooting for you.
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  Speaker 3: Please get better soon.
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  Speaker 2: But it is Thursday, and it's been a very long
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  Speaker 2: month already. We're only a couple of sleeps away from
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  Speaker 2: Election Day. So I want to know, Ali, what are
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  Speaker 2: you most excited about? What are you nervous about? Are
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  Speaker 2: you just excited to get this over with?
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  Speaker 3: Oh my goodness. Well, I didn't know that I was
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  Speaker 3: going to be in this situation in the first place.
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  Speaker 3: So I didn't get to emotionally prepare for an election.
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  Speaker 3: I didn't get to prepare anything at all for this
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  Speaker 3: period in my life. But here we are. And the
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  Speaker 3: final stretch is always very exciting to me because it
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  Speaker 3: really comes down to, did we listen to voters? Did
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  Speaker 3: we listen to the media? Are we adjusting accordingly? You know,
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  Speaker 3: I was on the Pierre Polyev campaign in the last
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  Speaker 3: federal election. And one of the criticisms that I had
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  Speaker 3: heard quite a bit was we never pivoted. even something
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  Speaker 3: so granular, like the rack cards that you go door
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  Speaker 3: knocking with, they continue to say, cut the tax, cut
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  Speaker 3: the carbon tax. And that by, I mean, by, by
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  Speaker 3: a certain point of the election, the liberals also said
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  Speaker 3: that they were going to do it too. And so
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  Speaker 3: then we just, we never pivoted away from it. And
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  Speaker 3: so it's been very exciting to see at this provincial election,
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  Speaker 3: how agile the, All these campaigns have been because I
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  Speaker 3: really do think that they are looking at that polling.
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  Speaker 3: They are listening to voters. They're listening to certain regions
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  Speaker 3: as well. And we're going to get into that. But
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  Speaker 3: they've been listening to all of these different voting blocks
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  Speaker 3: and adjusting accordingly. And it's become very obvious, but in
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  Speaker 3: the best ways possible.
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  Speaker 2: And one area that is always important in BCA campaigns,
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  Speaker 2: and this campaign is no different. The leaders are spending
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  Speaker 2: a lot of time in the city of Surrey. BC
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  Speaker 2: Conservative leader Lorne Dirksen will be up at 10 this
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  Speaker 2: morning in Surrey. That's where David Eby was yesterday and
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  Speaker 2: last night with the rally where I think it was
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  Speaker 2: around 500 people attended. Tell me about this. Like, what
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  Speaker 2: is the strategy here? How do you think the campaigns
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  Speaker 2: are going about it? And why is it so important
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  Speaker 2: every time?
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  Speaker 3: We talk about Surrey all the time. We also used
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  Speaker 3: to talk about Richmond quite a bit too. But Surrey
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  Speaker 3: has a number of ridings. there are some where they're
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  Speaker 3: not typical strongholds, that it does shift. It does bounce
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  Speaker 3: from party to party. Unlike, you know, we very smartly
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  Speaker 3: observe that in some of the more Northern ridings, those
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  Speaker 3: are conservative strongholds, right? It's why we also don't see
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  Speaker 3: a whole lot of tour opportunities in those Northern ridings.
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  Speaker 3: And we see a lot aggressively in Surrey because you,
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  Speaker 3: number of ridings, and they can go from party to party.
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  Speaker 2: Right, right. And I think, yeah, David Eby did head
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  Speaker 2: up north at least once this campaign.
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  Speaker 3: And that's all he needs. That's all he needs to do.
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  Speaker 2: I did talk to the Greens as well about Surrey,
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  Speaker 2: and they noted that Emily has been spending time in
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  Speaker 2: strong green ridings due to the unexpected campaign. But certainly
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  Speaker 2: David Eby and Lauren Dirksen spending a lot of time
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  Speaker 2: in this city, this campaign. Speaking of the Greens, though,
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  Speaker 2: They'll be up today campaigning with Vancouver Mayor-elect Pete Fry
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  Speaker 2: in West Vancouver with candidate Jeremy Valeriot. That's around 10 a.m.
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  Speaker 2: And Pete Fry has been a very busy guy this week.
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  Speaker 2: He has been up with David Eby for their anti-separatism announcement.
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  Speaker 2: And then, of course, Pete Fry also endorsed Emily. I
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  Speaker 2: understand he was also hanging out with NDB candidate Sunita Deer,
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  Speaker 2: Vancouver Langara, yesterday. and then up again today. So very
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  Speaker 2: busy first week after the municipal election. Also today, Emily
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  Speaker 2: Lowen will have an announcement in her constituency. Recently, they
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  Speaker 2: had one on craft beer, which I think was pretty fun.
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  Speaker 2: Big craft beer fan here. But today, they're going to
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  Speaker 2: focus on the arts. And they say both of these
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  Speaker 2: are industries that are really important and don't ask a
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  Speaker 2: lot of government. As far as the BCNP goes, David
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  Speaker 2: Eby will be in Vancouver, Richmond and more communities today.
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  Speaker 2: I expect he'll be focusing on health care. So that's
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  Speaker 2: for today. Also last night, advanced voting ended. So that's
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  Speaker 2: not going to happen today or tomorrow. So the next
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  Speaker 2: opportunity that voters will get a chance to cast their
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  Speaker 2: ballot will be Saturday, October 24th. It is an interesting
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  Speaker 2: couple of days with no voting opportunities. So the parties
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  Speaker 2: are just focused on driving their message home. about the
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  Speaker 2: choice that's on the ballot between different parties. And so
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  Speaker 2: my question for you is, how does the campaign shift
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  Speaker 2: during this time? And what are the things that are
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  Speaker 2: going on behind the scenes of a campaign?
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  Speaker 3: Well, let's unpack some of the updates that you provided
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  Speaker 3: there too. Heat Fry going around with Emily Lowen, specifically
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  Speaker 3: in West Van, Sea to Sky. In any other election though,
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  Speaker 3: don't you think that, you know, they've already held it,
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  Speaker 3: it's an incumbent with the Green Party, If they were
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  Speaker 3: on more stable terms, that would have been an opportunity
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  Speaker 3: where they could have been running a secondary tour, for example,
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  Speaker 3: with Jeremy Valeria and other strong green areas. And the
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  Speaker 3: fact that they're doubling down in an area where they
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  Speaker 3: already have an incumbent tells me that they're worried that
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  Speaker 3: he may not potentially hold on to it. A lot
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  Speaker 3: of that because of the vote split in that riding
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  Speaker 3: and in other ridings as well. But that's all momentum, right?
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  Speaker 3: Like when we talk about the decisions that campaigns are
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  Speaker 3: making in these last couple of days, the Greens have momentum.
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  Speaker 3: It's the news following the man of the hour, which
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  Speaker 3: is Pete Fry, doubling it down with Emily Lohan, like
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  Speaker 3: smart strategy there, right? That's exactly what they should be
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  Speaker 3: doing right now.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would say the momentum for the Greens
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  Speaker 2: depends on which poll you're looking at. But over the
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  Speaker 2: last couple of weeks, we've heard a fairly strong message
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  Speaker 2: from the NDP directly talking to those voters about the
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  Speaker 2: vote split and where they can place their vote if
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  Speaker 2: they are worried about a BC Conservative government getting in.
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  Speaker 2: So I can see why the Greens are actively campaigning there.
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  Speaker 2: And I did hear from the Green campaign that they
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  Speaker 2: have been focusing a lot of their efforts in The
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  Speaker 2: ridings where they think the Greens have a strong chance.
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  Speaker 3: Totally with the vote split, right? When I saw a video,
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  Speaker 3: who was it today? It was the Green candidate from
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  Speaker 3: South Granville. And she talked about strategic voting. And she
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  Speaker 3: was talking about how There's this new message that I've seen,
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  Speaker 3: not just with her video, but with a few other
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  Speaker 3: green candidates, where they've been talking about maybe in elections past,
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  Speaker 3: you have potentially thought, I can't throw away my vote
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  Speaker 3: with a green vote. So in order to keep the
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  Speaker 3: Conservatives out, I'm going to vote NDP because that's going
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  Speaker 3: to hold more weight. But this time around, we're seeing
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  Speaker 3: Not every riding is going to have this formula, but
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  Speaker 3: in some, you have a green, an NDP, a conservative,
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  Speaker 3: and a 1BC. So potential split on the right, potential
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  Speaker 3: split on the left. Oh, I forgot center. I feel
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  Speaker 3: like a lot of people did. Anyhow, but with that split,
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  Speaker 3: who knows what could happen in some of these ridings?
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  Speaker 3: But like I said, not every riding has that formula.
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  Speaker 2: For sure. And I want to dive into this in
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  Speaker 2: detail after the break. But first, we're going to take
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  Speaker 2: a quick break for a sponsor. Political Capital Daily is
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  Speaker 2: Thanks to Airbnb for its support. Now, back to the show.
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  Speaker 2: So we were talking about the impact of the vote
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  Speaker 2: split in some of these tight ridings and the battle
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  Speaker 2: of the messages between the BC NDP and the BC
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  Speaker 2: Greens on that strategic voting question. And I think that
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  Speaker 2: really ties into a lot of the polls that we've
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  Speaker 2: been seeing because, you know, as political nerds, we love polls.
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  Speaker 2: There have been plenty of these to talk about over
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  Speaker 2: the last month. Yesterday, there was one that came out
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  Speaker 2: from Main Street Research. So this one had the BC
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  Speaker 2: Conservatives at 41.7%. the BC NDP was at 36 and
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  Speaker 2: then the Greens at 14.6. And this came after a
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  Speaker 2: series of others this week showing the BC Conservatives with
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  Speaker 2: an edge. Now that edge is smaller in some polls
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  Speaker 2: than in others. The Angus Reid poll this week, for example,
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  Speaker 2: showed a pretty tight race within the margin of error.
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  Speaker 2: So what do you make of this latest poll and
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  Speaker 2: how much stock we should be putting into it?
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  Speaker 3: Well, obviously I'm very happy about how the polls have
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  Speaker 3: been trending this campaign. Um, because it's showing that there
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  Speaker 3: is a little bit of trust in the Conservatives as
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  Speaker 3: a potential option to form government. But ultimately, as I've
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  Speaker 3: said on the show numerous times, it's just one of
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  Speaker 3: the tools in the tool belt that you can use
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  Speaker 3: in making a determination of who you want to vote for,
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  Speaker 3: but also more so for campaigns, how you're using that information.
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  Speaker 3: You have to take it as a data set. That's
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  Speaker 3: one data set. You know what the other one was
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  Speaker 3: that is now available to us? That's the voter turnout
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  Speaker 3: in advance voting. We were talking about that earlier, right?
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  Speaker 3: And so what we've seen is just a slight decrease
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  Speaker 3: in voter turnout in advance voting, which was shocking to me, actually,
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  Speaker 3: because in the last federal election, this was basically like
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  Speaker 3: done and dusted after the advanced voting. There was an
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  Speaker 3: overwhelming amount of turnout in the advanced voting. And that
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  Speaker 3: was indicative of wanting change, but in a very weird way,
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  Speaker 3: because now it was changed for Carney, right? And so,
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  Speaker 3: but this time, maybe it's a little bit because it
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  Speaker 3: was an overlap with the municipal during advanced voting, but
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  Speaker 3: but maybe it's also that people just don't feel particularly
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  Speaker 3: compelled to, to vote in this election. I don't know.
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  Speaker 3: And like that logically also doesn't make sense to me
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  Speaker 3: because the impacts are affordability. It's all things that impact
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  Speaker 3: it and it can be relatable to every family. But
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  Speaker 3: it is just one of the data sets. We're taking
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  Speaker 3: a look at the polls. We're taking a look at
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  Speaker 3: the advanced voter turnout. One of the other things I
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  Speaker 3: was thinking about actually on this was the I was
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  Speaker 3: shocked at the 18th onward for advanced voting because I
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  Speaker 3: thought to myself, all right, well, I know that particularly
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  Speaker 3: on the NDP side, there are a lot of municipal
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  Speaker 3: campaigners that also are shared provincially. And so I figured
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  Speaker 3: to myself, okay, on the 18th, those NDP organizers are
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  Speaker 3: going to come out in big numbers. That didn't really happen.
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  Speaker 3: Like I haven't seen a massive increase in organizational support
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  Speaker 3: that has translated into getting out the vote for the NDP.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm really interested to see what happens on Saturday,
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  Speaker 2: because I had hoped that having the two elections close
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  Speaker 2: together was actually going to drive up voter engagement and
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  Speaker 2: drive up interest in both elections. And we did see
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  Speaker 2: the turnout go up in some of the communities in
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  Speaker 2: the municipal campaigns. What I'll say about Saturday is that
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  Speaker 2: we know B.C. politics can be weird and unpredictable and
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  Speaker 2: the polls can only show so much. And that's what
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  Speaker 2: every campaign has to grapple with, that, you know, the
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  Speaker 2: data that they are pulling together can really only tell
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  Speaker 2: them so much about how a riding is likely to go.
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  Speaker 2: And so, you know, there are wild cards that happen
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  Speaker 2: on election night. Part of it is the vote split,
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  Speaker 2: which this time there's, you know, vote splits on both
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  Speaker 2: the right and the left. In many of the ridings,
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  Speaker 2: there are some star candidates that could have an impact.
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  Speaker 2: And I want to know what you think about that.
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  Speaker 2: Is it, uh, are some of these wild cards a
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  Speaker 2: big enough factor to change the outcome on election night?
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  Speaker 3: Oh, I think so. Um, another data set circumstances within
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  Speaker 3: a riding, if there is something, let's talk about the
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  Speaker 3: Surrey hospital. Um, you know, that, that is a big, uh,
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  Speaker 3: motivating factor for voters, uh, Do you trust that this
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  Speaker 3: political party is going to expand the Surrey hospital, the
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  Speaker 3: other battle of the sky trains this week of who's
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  Speaker 3: going to build the sky trade. So there, there are
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  Speaker 3: issues that drive people to go vote there and stop polling.
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  Speaker 3: And those that advanced voter data that I was talking
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  Speaker 3: about as well. Oh, hugely.
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  Speaker 2: And EB actually got the question around polling when he
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  Speaker 2: was in Surrey yesterday. That's, event was focused on Surrey.
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  Speaker 2: It was focused on Surrey infrastructure. So talked about the
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  Speaker 2: Cloverdale Hospital, the new one, the Surrey Langley Sky Train,
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  Speaker 2: the medical school, all those big hits. And then he
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  Speaker 2: also took a shot at Dirksen for not being up
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  Speaker 2: in front of media, but making time for donors. And
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  Speaker 2: I didn't see where Dirksen was. It doesn't mean he
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  Speaker 2: wasn't doing anything on the campaign, but here's what EB
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  Speaker 2: had to say. And so we're going to play that
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  Speaker 2: clip for you now.
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  Speaker 4: The conservative leader has gone into hiding. But he's not
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  Speaker 4: doing nothing. Today he has not one, but two thousand
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  Speaker 4: dollar plus donation private donor events that he's hosting. So
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  Speaker 4: I understand that fundraising is part of the election process.
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  Speaker 4: What I don't understand is attending private donor events while
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  Speaker 4: you don't attend to answer questions from the media while
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  Speaker 4: you don't attend debates like Conservative candidates are avoiding right now.
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  Speaker 4: You don't take follow-up questions because British Columbians deserve to
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  Speaker 4: know what your plan is. And this election is far
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  Speaker 4: from over.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, so a couple things here, Ali. So one is,
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  Speaker 2: you know, there's been a pretty big push from the
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  Speaker 2: NDP on Lauren not taking questions. So how do you
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  Speaker 2: think that actually lands with media and with the public? Like,
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  Speaker 2: does it matter to have a leader up every day
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  Speaker 2: taking question. And then the last piece is on EB's
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  Speaker 2: comment that the election is far from over.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, so a couple of things there. One, I'm going
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  Speaker 3: to take this opportunity to say that the Conservative leader
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  Speaker 3: is in Surrey for a big rally today. So we're
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  Speaker 3: very much looking forward to that. Two, there's a formula
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  Speaker 3: with campaign days. And there is typically... media, there's an
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  Speaker 3: announcement that drives that media, right? How do you stay relevant?
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  Speaker 3: How do you stay on the six o'clock news? It's
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: a lot of these announcements. Even after a platform, I
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: should say, Right now, what we're seeing is a lot
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: of regional announcements. That's important because based off of the
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: platform announcement and based off of any other announcement that
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: they've done previous to the campaign, this could either be
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: if it wasn't landing in a way that they need
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: to re-announce. So sometimes we see candidates do that where
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  Speaker 3: they are or campaigns rather where they're uh repeating a
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  Speaker 3: lot of the messages from the beginning of the campaign
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  Speaker 3: because perhaps they think that they didn't get it through
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  Speaker 3: to that intended audience um and then those regional announcements
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  Speaker 3: where you're talking about those things that are really going
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  Speaker 3: to get campaigns across the finish line in certain areas
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  Speaker 3: based on all of the information that campaigns are getting
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  Speaker 3: and then so you got the media you got the
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  Speaker 3: messaging um right now, specifically, because election day is just
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  Speaker 3: around the corner, you're also going to add a momentum
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  Speaker 3: event in there as well. Lots of people, sometimes you'll
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  Speaker 3: do like a photo op door knocking. So I saw
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  Speaker 3: the Conservative leader door knocking in Kelowna Centre, like the
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  Speaker 3: ton of people. Those are great visuals. I saw David
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  Speaker 3: Eby with a big crowd in Surrey. Like, Yeah. 500 people.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Wow. 500 people. I bet it's not going to be
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  Speaker 3: hard to top that one today in Surrey for us,
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  Speaker 3: I hope. But you see that and it's psychological too, right?
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  Speaker 3: You want to vote with the winner. You want to
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  Speaker 3: vote with who is seen as having that momentum and
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: you kind of follow your neighbor, right? Like if I
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: see a big crowd behind them. Like, okay, they must
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: be on to something. Right.
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  Speaker 2: And they're motivating.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: And they're motivating for volunteers. Like, I think that that
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  Speaker 2: is a good use of rallies is getting people pumped
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  Speaker 2: and the door knock and to keep the momentum going.
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  Speaker 2: I think like on the momentum side, We've also seen
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: sort of this whirlwind of announcements over the last few
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: days where the parties are pumping out news releases, trying
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: to get out, you know, any remaining announcements that they
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: can ahead of voting day. I've sort of lost count
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: from the NDP. They've had a lot of regional news
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: releases on health care, education, you know, the risks that
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: they say are involved with voting conservative. The BC Greens
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: had three news releases yesterday. One of those was a
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: pretty interesting announcement from Emily Lowen, the leader on reproductive
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: health care. And so that had a whole bunch of
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: things in it, including reviewing the midwifery funding model, ensuring
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: the medications and medication abortions remain legally available via virtual
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: telehealth clinics, mental health support for postpartum depression through MSP,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: that sort of thing. And so that's sort of an
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: interesting play in the final days because we know women
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: are a powerful voting bloc and health care often tops
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: the issues through public opinion polling for women. And we
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: saw that as a factor earlier this campaign when the
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: NDP also had a big women's health care strategy announcement
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: that built on some of the actions that they'd rolled out,
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: like HPV screening program, free menopause medications, free birth control,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: that sort of thing. And so we do see this
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: fight for women's votes through a focus on women's health
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: care in campaigns. And what do you think, what kind
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: of impact do you think that has?
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: I think that's all the things that we were just
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: talking about. That's all the data sets that campaigns would
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: be reviewing at this critical time. Did I reach that
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: women voter enough in the last 20 plus days? And
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: maybe I haven't. And that's why we're doing this. Um,
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: do I see an opportunity, uh, with this voting block? Um,
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: just think about communities, right? It's why, um, We are
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: announcing things in certain ridings to certain communities while every
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: political party is promising something to the Filipino Community Cultural
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: Center because they're voting blocs, right?
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: And so that's all that we were talking about. That's
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: why these decisions are being made in this final stretch.
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: It's all very calculated. We're running out of time. For some,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: it's a very exciting part of the campaign because we're
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: getting to the end. But to others, as I was
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: talking to a colleague today, it's frustrating because you only
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: have a couple days now to get the message out,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: to convince those final people And then to put basically
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: everything on the table because come Saturday, there are certain rules.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: You can't really campaign that much on Saturday, right? And so,
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: and then that's it.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: That's it.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: And that's it. And it's even scarier because that advanced
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: voting number wasn't an overwhelming turnout. So you have just
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: this finite period to convince all of those people that
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: didn't get out previously and now have one day to
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: do it. Yes.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: And then we'll all get a bit more sleep. But
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I think that's it for the show today. Rob will
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: be back tomorrow because he is a hero who's digging
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: deep to overcome his adversity and his man cold and
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: so forth. Thanks for listening. Make sure you subscribe. And
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: we'll be back tomorrow with all the latest in BC
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: politics here on Political Capital Daily. And thanks so much
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: to Ali for joining us.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: Thank you. This was fun.