Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 12

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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 12 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, joined as always
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunt.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Hello, so I am in Hello chat. How are we doing? Brother?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I'm ready, I'm ready. I think there are some really ugly,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: ugly games. I don't know about you. You said on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Tuesday you were feeling good about this week. It took
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: me until about two pm yesterday to find real clarity
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: and start to get comfortable with some of these games
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: because they are so ugly. We had a long chat
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: about the chip Is Big Favorites over the Panthers this week,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: and I just wanted to put some stuff in context.
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: We're going to talk more about that game.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: You mentioned that double digit Phaves are five to oh
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: this season against the spread. Evan confirmed that in his
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: excellent Excellent Trends piece this week. Double digit Phase five
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: to oh this year the first time they have been undefeated,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: not just against the spread, undefeated as winners this late
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: in the year. In twenty seasons and only the second
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: time in the past forty seasons. But if you want
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: to know how extraordinary it is that the double digit
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: favorites are undefeated against the spread, you have to go
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: back to nineteen fifty. That is the last time double
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through Week eleven.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: If you need some context for this, I thought you'd
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: appreciate this as a professional better and a connoisseur of
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: history all things betting. In nineteen fifty, Simon, the points
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: spread was less than a decade old.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: It was invented in the early.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Nineteen forties via math genius and trader in Chicago named
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Charles McNeil. Because all the stuff that makes people happiest
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: comes from Chicago, Deep dish pizza, Chicago style hot dogs,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and the points spread.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: That's the list.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: I thought you're gonna do the Darren revl and be
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: like the number one movie and the number one song
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: played when this happened.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week twelve Best Bets episode. Simon
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: and I are going to narrow down are five picks
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: in the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Them Contest presented by Bet three six five. Go ahead,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: sign up now you can still win the weekly prize
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: as Favorites that Action Network dot Com.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: We're gonna get to the foxhole.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: We're going to give out our Tommy John big Ball's
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: bet of the Week which won last week.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: By the way.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets or boosted money line,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Ron Robin, and so much more, bets,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: rolling in lines or moving decisions need to be made.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: As our volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: Likes to say there's a sea of money out there.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: always Thursdays in the season. We're gonna hear how the
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversations. We are
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: moving lines, my good friend Simon Hunter, that's why they
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: feel compelled to weigh in on our decisions. So Simon,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: let's get to it.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: Chuck calls.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there. I'm talking Rain.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do man?
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's start with a Thursday night. As fans of
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: this show, no, we were felt like we had to
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: take the browns and we kind of felt like we
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: were following the professionals here. Nothing's changed, right, It's been
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: really professional heavy pros verse shows. It's really heavy for
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: the public on the Pittsburgh side. Professionals have come in.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: Even when this number is ticked up, the plus four
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: you've seen to come crashing right back down at plus
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: three and a half. So the books, the professionals, they've
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: kind of draw a line the sand here, and they
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: do think this is an upset. And then Evan's article
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: came out and you saw what I saw chat all
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: that info about Tomlin on these Thursday night games against
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: divisional opponents, So I didn't really understand where they're coming from.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Now starts to make sense. Then you add in that
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: we have some bad weather coming in. So yeah, this
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: went from being everyone thinking it's gonna be a boring
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh blowing this team out kind of game to is
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: Cleveland had actually a shot to win this game out right,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: So that's a really fun game. Let's get into the
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: big dogs. Professionals, they love the Colts this week, they
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: love the Panthers, and a couple of guys shockingly like
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: the Titans. Now, the Titans is the smallest one, I
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: would say the other ones. Guys are bet more confident.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Guys are kind of playing playing this Titan spot because
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: of the number and the fact that this team is
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: one to nine against the spread. Right, Like, eventually the
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: book is going to catch up to a give you
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: extra points. Sam goes to that Houston team, right, if
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: the that's the view of it. CJ is a different
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: guy as a big favorite. We've seen him be you know,
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: so much better and consistent as an underdog. So that's
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Those are a couple of interesting games that we're gonna
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: dive into. Uh for games we love the pros love
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: with us rams. That's one. Will spend a bunch of
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: time on Chargers. Not that shocking. Uh, they love your
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals pick. We've seen that number flip flopping, right,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: We've seen that get up. They've got up to one
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: minus one and a half of a couple of books Arizona,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: so that that line's been moving like crazy. Now this
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: is a game. Mean, you really haven't touched on Denver.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Like I've talked to a lot of really sharp groups
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: that love this Denver number, and they've taken this number
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: from hoping of three all the way up to six
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: and now chat. So that's a game that like, if
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: we're going to force in a favorite, maybe I could
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: convince you on that Denver team because it's a good
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: matchup for them defensively, offensively. I get where they're coming from,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: and I agree that at five and a half, if
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: you can still get in contest or in your pickpool.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I take that value. That's a really good number on
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: that Denver team, and then a game that means you
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: spend a little time on that much though was the
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers green Bay. Our whole issue was, Okay,
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: brock Pertty is missing practices. This is a big deal
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: that that to me would make me want to take
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Green Bay if they're obviously gonna play back up pretty practice,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: no problem. Yesterday Apparently Sam goes with Kittle, who we
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: talked about how important he is to that offense. So
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: we've seen the money come in now on that fort
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: nine ers team. Now it's down to one and a half.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: So you know, a couple of guys I talked to
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: that are pretty smart, they're ahead of it. They got
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: to two and a half. I was gonna be on
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: the other side, but Chad knows on something that I
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: wanted to be on the forty nine ers, So I'm
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: happy to come back on this fort Niners teams. That's
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: a position I wanted to be on. It was all
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: about if Perdy was gonna play. He seems like he's
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: good to go. This seems like a really nice spot
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: to back this fort nine ers team. So yeah, the professionals, Chad,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: they're beting big on the dogs this week, and I
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: think this is kind of the spot. Either the public's
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: gonna be I have a ton of money in their
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: pocket head into Thanksgiving, or they're gonna be chasing pretty
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: hard come that Thanksgiving three day games Slate.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Look, I'm glad to hear all this because obviously I'm
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: having different conversations than you, and a lot of my
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: work between Tuesday and Thursday is hungry down researching, looking
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: at advanced analytics. See that if I can find an
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: edge across any of the things that we look at,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: from success rate to EPA, et cetera. And I was
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: starting to feel so much better about some of these teams.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: The Niners are an interesting one, and I think that's
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: sort of a tipping point game for us.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: I'm excited to get to that. We're going to dig
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: into all of it before we do.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Reminder, our latest free Free Favorites podcast Watch Party is
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: happening in a few weeks December twelfth. That is a Thursday,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: December twelfth, in Simon Hunter's hometown of Philadelphia, right there
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: in Center City, Folks. We're going to the Wicked Wolf.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I heard it's a banging spot. A lot of people
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: have said to me, oh, I love that play. We're
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: gonna have free drinks. It's gonna be a live Q
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: be there too. We're all gonna hang out. We're gonna
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: sweat and bet and enjoy the Thursday night football.
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: I wonder what Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go into tag mode. We will not go gently.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: We're gonna unleash hell here in December because we have to,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: because that's what's required.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: You've must RSVP space will be limited to RSVP. Check
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: out the link in the podcast description page or the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: YouTube episode description. Simon and I will tweet it out
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: as well. RSVPs are coming in. Do not delay. I've
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: gotten a lot of requests from people to start putting
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: more stuff on threads. I joined threads last night. Milman
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: C go ahead and follow me. I posted a link
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: to the rs VP in my threads feed.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: I'll do I'll do the episode. I'll do the rs
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: VP there as well.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Well.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: I'm not abandoning X.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying I'm adding threads, getting a lot of
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: requests for threads content, so we're going to put it
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: all in there again. RSVP joined me, Simon Matt Mitchell.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: all in.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get rolling, Simon. Right now, we're starting
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: with Kansas City at Carolina. We have assiduously That's right.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I said it assiduously, big word. Avoided the Carolina Panthers
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: since they basically turned our podcast audience against us after
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: about three weeks. We have avoided them all season long.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: They are eleven point underdogs. I think it's going to
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: go higher. I wanted to put this on the list
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: just so we could officially dismiss it and so I
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: can refer to Evan's double digit stats off the top.
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: I think it's time to fade those stats. And I'm
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: not afraid of the Panthers here.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: It's fair and I don't want to move on too quick.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: Did you say banging? Is that in your vocabulary? You
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: said that they had banging food at the bar we're
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: going to.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: I said, it's a banging spot.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what just happened. I can't believe
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: that's that's part of your nineties lingo. I love it.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Check dude, do you know how I am so hip banging?
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: I'm banging?
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: I just let you just said it. It just kept moving.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh my god, I can't let this
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: keep going. Yeah, Panthers are banging this week? How do we?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you see me, but the way
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I see myself very hip to the trance.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know about that.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: I only had to look.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Up pink tote lid moment once today.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this Panthers team, it's it's what you're just talking about.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: We're just playing the number, right, trying not to overthink it.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: I talked about I have this at eight eight and
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: a half. We're getting a ton of value here. It
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: doesn't feel good, Chad. I think you're in the same
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: boat as me where it's like it's I think we
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: have PtD from betting this Carolina team. But it's really
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: all about playing this number. We've seen it before with Mahomes.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: The public drives these numbers up. And that's why he
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: is three and one as a ten point favorite of
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: More And it's because the public drives the number up.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: The books have no issue pushing it to its limit
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: because they know that this is going to be the
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: number one t's game, on the number one money line
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: parlay game, all of that. So you're right, I'm trying
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: to think it will take the value at ten and
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: a half, I was already committed. Now it's up to eleven. Again,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: eleven and a half. How do we not take that chat?
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: So to me, it's really about the number, the matchup
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: to this Panthers team. You know, as bad as they've been,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: we've seen these last couple of weeks that Bryce Shunk's
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: found a little bit of confidence and he's pushing the
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: ball downfield, and that you know, as great as this
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Kansas City team is going to is against the run,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: we know that the Panthers they'll find a way to
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: run the ball. That's just what they've done all season.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: So I was hoping we would avoid this one, But
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: now that we sit here on Thursday, it feels like
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be one of our five. It's just
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: too good of a number, too good of a spot
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: to pass on this Panthers team.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: Well, here's our challenge. And by the way, we're in
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: the foxhole.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: And we're not in the foxhole against the professional betters here.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: We're in the foxhole against our listeners. I hate to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: say it, so we are because I can feel the revolt.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I can feel my threads feed just blowing up with
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: feedback about the Panthers.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: But yeah, this is this is just how.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: We play the game. And look, there's three fewer games
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: this week, right, so there's not as many options, and
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: all of these games, like there are a lot of
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: ugly dogs, and there aren't the obvious favorite spots like
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: we've had in the past. The numbers say you got
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: to take the Panthers here. So if we're gonna play,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: let's play like we're supposed to. We're taking the Panther.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be in the contest. I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: hate doing it to people, But if you want to
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: be with us, if you want to jump in the
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: foxhole with me and Simon, look we're gonna buy you
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: free drinks in Philly.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: So if it doesn't work out, at least you're.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Getting that from US Minnesota at Chicago Bears are three
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. This has been a weird game,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Like it says play the home dog with a defense
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: whose strengths match up to the fading QB's weaknesses. The
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: trends say fade the road favorite with a win percentage
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent or more. It's forty three percent.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: The past decade.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I just can't get there, Like I think, I think
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams going against Brian Flores for the first time
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: is a real X factor here that is not being
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: considered in all sort of bet the number blind metrics
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: that we see. And I know Sam Donald is fading.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Like I'm not a fan of Sam Donald. We've been
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: looking for ways to fade him the last few weeks.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: But I got huge, huge concerns and numbers to back
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: it up with Brian Floores against Caleb Williams.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the coward, right. I mean, I'm still
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: taking the plus three and a half, but I definitely
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: feel more confident taken on the under in this game,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Like I'd rather take that than you can take this number,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: especially because we talked about this is this numbers moved
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: a ton at four and a half. I honestly would
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: feel pretty good taking this number, just because I do
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a low scoring, really close game.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: And as much you want to knock this Barry's team,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: with Kayleb Williams all of his games, for the most part,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: he plays pretty close. Like it feels like they're always
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: in these games, and they're in these tight games. And
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: you know, as as much you want to bash this
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Bary's team, it's the defense that's kept them in a
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: lot of these games as well, Like they've kept them
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: in a really close matchup. So I like both defenses
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: in this game, like both them matchup well. For the
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: offense on the other side, your hesitation is warranted, Like
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: we know the deal. You guys can't block anyone of
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: the Bears, and now you have a team that can
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: just throw a ton of different looks and blitz back.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: It's not ideal for Kayleb Williams. So I'm with you.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I coming into this week, I really was loving this spot.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Now is week going along, It's like I still like it.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: I just prefer the under more. So I'm happy to
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: passing this one. I'm making one of our five.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: You know what's interesting and I'm glad to hear you
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: sort of found a different perspective. I was afraid you
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: were going to try to bully me into taking the Bears,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: and I just didn't get the love. I got the
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: love for the Bears at five and four and a half,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: but still hearing about it at three and a half
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: is confusing to me. We got a one game sample
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: size of the Bears, you know, with a new offensive
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: coordinator and trying to be a little more vertical, and
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: most importantly, Caleb getting rid of the ball and two seconds,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: you know, two and a half seconds instead of holding
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: onto it forever.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: That's it.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: The Packers are just not the same defense as the Vikings.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: And here's a stat I stole from Evan and his
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: excellent piece about the trends and betting this week. When
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams faces defense with the sack percentage of two
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: percent or higher, and that's basically when the opponent's percentage
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: of plays that end as a sack while on defense,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: that's how you calculate sack percentage. He's one and six
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: straight up, scoring less than twenty points in six of
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the seven games. The Viking sacks percentage sacks sack percentage
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: five and a half percent. Like, I just feel like
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: they're going to do so many things that confuse him,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: to fuddle him, make him hold the ball. They'll drop
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: back into coverage and still get pressure. I don't like it.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I don't like it a little bit. I want you
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: to talk me off a game New England at Miami.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Sharp money has moved this from seven and a half
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: to seven, so you've lost the hook. But this feels
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: like a classic eye test versus in numbers game to me. Like,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: we watch a lot of Patriots games because we're either
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: betting on them or betting against them the past few weeks,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: and we've watched the past couple of games with Tua
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: and the Dolphins, And when I look at these games
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: with two especially, I think the Rams beat themselves against Tua.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: The Raiders game, this was a five point game with
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: three and a half minutes left, okay, and the Raiders
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: were a defensive pass interference away from getting the ball
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: back and having a chance to win that game. They
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: get a bad call, the game sort of gets blown
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: open with a couple of freakish plays, but they were
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: five points out of that game with three and a
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: half minutes left, and I think the Pats are gamers.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I think Drake May is a gamer. I think their
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: biggest detriment is they have a coach who's just way
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: too conservative and like puts them in bad spots where
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: you don't get the opportunity to cover as much. But
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I want to bet the Pats.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another game that we're basically just trusting the number.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: You know. I haven't put a penny or anything on
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: this money line of this Patriots team. I thought by
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: this point I would just because he just nailed it. Like,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust Miami team, but I really think
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: about it, this Miami team is gonna be able to
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: score points in this Patriots defense, especially at home and
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: that kind of spot that just we've seen two. He's
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: a different player at home and especially against Yeah, but
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: it's all about the number. Brother. If it was seven
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: and a half, I'd be more confident putting this in
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: the contest. I look where he came on. It was
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: six and a half. So it's all exactly. There's no
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: point if you can waste our time because we're not
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: gonna take it. So if you want to bet it
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: with us, it's not one of my five or six
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: bigger bets. But it's really it's really about the number,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: like seven and a half Drake made against this Miami team.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I feel like me and you have an opportunity for
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: a back door at six and a half. Obviously there's
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: no value there. I just I don't want to force
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: that number in those So you know, we just talked
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: about an ugly dog. I'd rather have been there, Carolina,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: because it's still a better number than this is. So
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: that's what it's gonna come down to. People are gonna
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: be why don't you guys end up having this one?
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: It's just a bad number. So I'm with you. I
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: like this number, like the spot Drake May. We've seen
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: him be a difference maker for that offense, right. I
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: don't know if it was you or someone else talked about,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: but like you know, they have one of the worst
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: pass pass blocking offenses in all football, the Patriots. That's
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: been good for Drake because it makes him get outside
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: the pocket. We've seen him really excel when either runs
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: a ball or pushes the ball downfield like that seems
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: to be what he's so great at is getting out
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: and making the defense kind of move around unorthodox and
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: throw the ball downfield. So you know me and you
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: aren't scared of this Miami defense in any way. We
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: know they have a couple of guys who can rush
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: the passer, but overall they're just not that very good
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: of a defense. So it's seven and a half too
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: many points. I would still take that number if you
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: can find it.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: What do you mean? You don't know if it was
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: me or somebody else? Who else are you listening to?
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: Why would it like? What would not be me?
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: Because I talked to like hundreds of people every week.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it was you that said that's
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: that thing or someone else. It all melts together, Simon.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: I don't forget anything you say to me. I catalog it,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: I make a note, I put it in the script.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: I remember almost every encounter because they're all that special.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: And I feel like you're discounting what I'm saying in
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: our relationship.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: So that does that mean you did say it?
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: It's possible.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Listen, I'm so old that you're surprised when I'm using
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: the word banging. How can I remember what I'm saying
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: about Drake May on a Tuesday? Yeah, Drake May is
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: banging Tennessee at Houston. All right, I there's a couple
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: of games on this board this in San Francisco that
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: I feel like are gonna sneak their way in and
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: or could potentially as like scary bets. Like this list
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: line has moved all over since we discussed it. It
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: was at eight, it got to eight and a half,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: then it get down to eight in some spots. Now
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: it's down to seven and a half. You were adamant
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: that Texans were the side we discussed it the other day.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: They are a massive, massive public play, very chalky. Eighty
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: percent plus of the tickets on the techan Texans, And
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I would say in any other year, it's a no brainer.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: We're betting the Titans. We're like, not even hesitating. We're in,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: We're excited, we're optimistic. We feel like we got a
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: sort of a bead on the on the right line here.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: But man, Will Levis, you know, and Evan's got some
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: crazy stats. You just mentioned one of them. But you know,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: give me your take here. What are we thinking?
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's fair like professionals are betting Tennessee because
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: they're not that bad of a team. Something you talked
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: about every week. It's like they have a pretty good defense,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: they can run the ball pretty well. It's just they
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: thought Will Lobson Mason Rudolph at the quarterback position this season.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: There's a reason. That's that's why they're one to nine.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: So I don't disagree with the people. It's like I
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: want to be on Tennessee. Who doesn't. They're you're getting
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: a bunch of free points because they're the only people
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: betting them as professional betters. But I can't get there.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: I got no faith in this team, especially the Texans.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: We've seen it. They're what ivan ten and one or
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: nine on one first half against the spread, Like, yeah,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: they come out, they come out fast. Jad. This Texans team,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: you know, there's a reason they have ten covers in
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: the first half. Like they don't mess around. They're just
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: a really well coached team, not only offensively, we've seen
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: defensively they just have they have some real gamers. So
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: I know I wanted to be on Tennessee. I want
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: to get there, but I can't do it. Like to me,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: it's just it's still not enough points. But the professionals
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: betting this makes makes sense. Jad, Like I'm I'm someone
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: that's been betting Tennessee, I feel like for the last
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: two three weeks and it's just never getting there. And
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: even though I'm getting a ton of points, they somehow
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: always forgot a way to shoot themselves on the foot.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: It's mainly because of the quarterbacks. They're just the turnovers
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: are such killer, especially on their own end of the field.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'd rather lose money this week on the
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Panthers than Tennessee, I tell.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: You that much. I totally agree with you.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I can't decide if with the Panthers, I mean with
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the Titans. You make a great point about the Texans
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: in the first half. If this game goes to form
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: and the Texans are great in the first half, the
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Titans have been awful against the spread in the second half,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: essentially for the entirety of the Will Levis Ere the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: past two calendar years seven to twenty six and one
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: against the spread in the second half. This year one
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: to nine against the spread overall, the second time that's
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: happened through eleven weeks in thirty thirty years. This is
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: why you want to at least not bet on the Titans.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Forget about betting the Texans. The one thing I will
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: say about the Titans, and this is reflected in the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: luck rankings, and we're gonna have some luck rankings games
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: in here. This is a big luck rankings under for
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: anyone who's interested. They have been incredibly unlucky. And if
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: you look even at the game last week right where
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: the Vikings covered and we thought that, you know, we
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: were anxious about cover there. It's one of the reasons
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: we didn't put in the contest. The Titans easily could
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: have covered that game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you remember Simon cataloging everything have ever said.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold was kind of terrible in that game. Got
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: most of his yardage from three plays. Bad handoff led
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: to a fumble, he fumbled, they recovered, The Vikings recovered,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: but the Titans had like multiple penalties that called back
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: game changing plays.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: Is that luck? Is that bad coaching? Were they bad calls?
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: I just feel like they're incredibly unlucky. Is that enough
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: to want to bet them put them in the contest.
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: I don't think so.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: But they're like they're barely on the outside looking in.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: It could be time for that trend to reverse. You
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: know what I'm saying, Simon, Yes, sir, are you ready?
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: Four hour Big Balls Better the Week.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: John has the support. I know it because I'm where
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: my Tommy John's right now. Great games start with great underwear.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest. Last week, we did something
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: we've never done. We took the Detroit Lions as huge, huge,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: double digit favorites as our big Balls Better the Week,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: and it paid off, paid off better than investing in
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a pair of Tommy John underwear.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: This week, we're fading.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions is seven and a half point road
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: We talked about it on Tuesday. We got to choose
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: between our babies. That's all this is.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: We've been betting the lines, we've been betting the Colts.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: We're going with the Colts.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you have one ass, cheek and
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: three toes, I will beat your rass.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: What's in your mind about this?
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Because we just talked about it right before we came out,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: so we didn't get to, you know, dig deep on it.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: We've heard from sharp calls that they are on the Colts,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: have you because on Tuesday I felt like we were
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: still fifty to fifty.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a classic case of me getting bullied
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: into a pick. I liked it, but it feels like
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: every pro I know is just like you guys are
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: suckers if you don't take the Colts here. And you
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: liked it, I can tell I kind of liked it,
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: and then I read Evans article and it's like, Okay,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: now it's all coming together. I when the trends back
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: up with the professionals like and you can see how
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: there is a gainscript. There is a way for this
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: to be that type of game where we talked about
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: Detroit Dada Hudginson thing has not really bit them. This
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: is the type of game it does right, and a
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: game where you know, they don't have that guy that
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: can contain the outside. They don't have that athletic freak
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: on the outside who's gonna be able to match the
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: speed of this Colts offense. Because we've seen Anthony Richardson.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: You know, sure, you can say it's a small sample,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: but they talked to him. They said to him, Okay,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: you need to use your body more. We were no
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: longer protecting you. You need to run the ball more
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: and that's that's when we're at our best. And you
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: know last week in that game, he really did put
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: it all on himself. I mean that was an incredible
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: drive end of the game to lead his team down
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: the field and score that touchdown. And you know, how
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: how do they keep building off of that? We don't know,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: but it's seven and a half. I'm willing to pay
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: for that insurance. It feels like we're getting a really
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: good number here against the Detroit team that we joked.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know when the peak Valley's gonna be on
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: this trade team, but this is getting pretty close to it.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Like we know that they beat up on bad teams.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: They have done so this year. Me and you both
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: love this Colts team. They're not a bad team, and
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: we've seen them just be different at home. I think
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I'm almost positive covered. It feels like every game at
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: home this season like we've just been betting them at home.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: And you know, Anthony Richardson, as much as people have
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: doubted him this year, he's one of the best covering
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks in all of football. Like he's great to bet on.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: He just he finds a way to cover. And you know,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: even though me and Chat had been on the been
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: on his side for a lot this season, we feel
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: like we've got lucky. I mean, especially that Week one,
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: while we remember that cover against Houston with a two
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: and a half. He's just been a covering machine. It's
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: kind of just the way the public is doubting him.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: So the key number year seven and a half. I've
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: seen a couple of books already touch seven, shop around,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: get that seven and a half. I'm starting to really
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: love this matchup, not just because of this offensive line,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: how they match up this Detroit team, but not not
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: that we have major questions about this Detroit offense, but
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: it kind of feels like they are due for some regression, right.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: It just they can't keep being this high powered offense
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: every week. There's gonna be teams that aren't going to
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: give them problems. And you know, I don't know if
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Gus Bradley's the guy defensively that's going to figure out
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: how to shut down Jared Golf totally on this offense,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: but I think he won out ways to keep this close.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: He's a veteran DC. He knows how to go against
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: veteran quarterbacks. So yeah, Chat, I really had a tough
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: time with this one talking to people reading Evans article.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: It's like, Okay, I feel a little bit more confident
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: now putting this one in, just because I know the
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: numbers do back up taking the seven and a half.
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: So look, matchup point of view and number wise, this
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: hits our ven diagram.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: We love.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: We have talked about it all year. It's why we've
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: been back in the Colts. We like their ability to
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: run the ball for two reasons. One, it allows them
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to control the clock, lower the scoring, keep games closer,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: but also it's a way for them to wear down
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the opposing defense and able to work on the play action.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: And Anthony Richardson he was really good last week. Like
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: you know, he completed a high percentage of his passes.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: He didn't make the same mistake. It was impressive and
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: it's not like the Lions get pressure, so he shouldn't
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: feel like he's going to be forced into making bad
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: decisions as long as he sticks to the game plan
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: that Shane Steichen is putting in front of him.
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: So we like that.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Matchup wise, we also like Jared Goff playing against his
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: zone where he's just his numbers are significantly lower than
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: when he's playing against Man, when he's nearly perfect and
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: the Colts play more zone than anybody else you've wrenched
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you've referenced Evans numbers Since twenty fifteen, teams after winning
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: by thirty five points twenty three, thirty four and one
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: against the spread. When they are favored by more than
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: four points, that number goes down twenty three thirty seven
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: against the spreads. In two thousand and three, teams who
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: are road favorites after being a double digit fi in
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: any location road or away, a road or home have
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: had struggles against the spread over the past decade, just
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: forty three percent against the spread the following week the
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: past decade, last one from Evan.
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: In November or later.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Since two thousand and three, there have been forty games
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: where a team is averaging thirty three plus points per
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: game with a ninety plus win percentage. Those teams are
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: thirty two percent against the spread in their next game,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: including four sixteen and one twenty five percent coming off
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: of a double digit win. So, all of a sudden,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: we've got matchup ban trends that are making us feel
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: a lot better about the Indianapolis Colts.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we have good reason to be scared of
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: Detroit team, right, so does everyone else that's betting this number.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: But it's really all about what you just said, trusting
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: the number, trusting the mats, and then trusting the true runs.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: It's like, this is an unusual spot where you kind
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: of need to back it. And I feel bad for
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: your Bear's team up next week for that Thanksgiving game
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: because it feels like we're gonna to probably throw this
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: one the money line around Robin. We're hoping for the
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: upset if they do. Man, are they going to take
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: it all out on that Bears team on Thanksgiving?
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: Listen.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: I got to drive to Staten Island on Thanksgiving Day
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: to help my mother in law pack up a house
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: she's lived in for fifty six years because she's moving.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: I am looking for That's how much I don't want
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: to watch the Bears Lions game is I will spend
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the majority of that game going through boxes in a
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: garage that have not been touched in fifty six years.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm choosing to do.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Oh man, what a terrible day.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Simon.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: The NFL regular season stretch run is here. This year,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: give a gift that helps your loved ones stretch and rot.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: The Gift of Tommy John. Black Friday is next week.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: We need to start thinking about the people on our
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: holiday gift lists, the men and women we love, those
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: who deserve the perfect gift and the confidence that comes
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: only when you're fully supported. I feel fully supported under
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: two circumstances, when I'm with you, Simon, and when I'm
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: wearing my Tommy John underwear. Simon, My brother, why will
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season?
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Pretty simple, chat, It's a gift that last.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: You nailed it, brother. This Black Friday sales has begun,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: so if you're looking to score your gifts early, go
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: to Tommy John dot com slash favorites for thirty percent
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: off right now, save thirty percent site wide for Black
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Friday at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. That's thirty
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: percent off for a limited time at Tommy John dot
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: com slash favorites. Okay, we touched on San Francisco at
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Green Bay. I'm still seeing twos out there. It has
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: ticked down a bit from two and a half to two,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: and I think they started moving in the Niners direction
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: yesterday after practice. It got down to one and a
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: half at some of the more public books, but I
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: am seeing twos. I think we're both feeling a lot
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: better about San Francisco right now.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I thought pretty was really hurt because, like I said,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: he's just such a tough guy. I just he never
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: misses practices. And I was like, okay, if he's if
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: he's going to miss a practice, this has to be
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: a really serious shoulder injury. He was back out there
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: last week, I mean yesterday, and he was passing like that.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: I know it said online it so it was limited.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: But the fact that he's throwing and it's it's that shoulder,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: that's a big deal. Like it clearly there might be
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: some discomfort there, but at least he's out there. And
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: then we saw the big news that Kittle guaranteed pretty
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: much that he'll be back for this game. We know
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: how Porty is to that offense, not just as a
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: rum blocker, for everything else that brings to that team.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is I feel like we both agree
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: on them. We just think the forty nine ers, as
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: bad as they've been, I still trust them more right
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: now than this Green Bay team, Like there's just something
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: off with this Green Bay team. And at the end
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: of the day, it's like we were gonna bet Green
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Bay just because there's gonna be no party. Now that
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: we know will be back, it's like, Okay, this is
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: a good matchup for a really desperate team from the
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers. And on the flip side, everything just
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: feels a little off with this Green Bay team this season,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: right even their defense, they've been heavy reliant on turnovers.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Without turnovers, they're just not that good of a defense.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: We've kind of seen a play out this season. So
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Shanahan Evan had a great stat about him after losses
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: in these kind of spots, like he tends to bounce back.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: You know, this is really about the number as well,
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Like you just said, you're still able to get two
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: maybe for luck at our contest, we can get two
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: and a half. That's such a great number in this
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: matchup that just feels like it's gonna be really close,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: down to the wire type of games. So the public,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: they're coming in heavy on this forty nine Ers team,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: which is not shocking. I think most I think in
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: the same way as me. So you know, we got
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: away with the last week been the public dog, maybe
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: we'll get away with it this week.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Look, we have had a hard time finding significant edges
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: in this game because both teams have sort of not
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: been able to be consistent and finished in the way
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: we think they should finish, right, Obviously, we think the
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Niners should have blown out the Seahawks last week. They
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: should have blown the doors off the place in Tampa.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: And in both games they've really struggled. They've had a
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: hard time all season long. They've had weird quirkiness. The
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: losing their kicker. I think it was against the Cardinals
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: that kept them from kicking field goals and that led
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: to a fumble that lost them that game. It's just
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of injury, bad luck. This is the biggest
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: luck rankings game of the week. This is a really
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: no bigger difference between luck factors than the Niners, who
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: are basically at the bottom of their ens and the Packers,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: who were at the top. So when I saw that
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: come out yesterday from Doctor Nick, I felt a lot
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: more comfortable about about taking the Niners.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: So that sort of put it over the edge for me.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's a rare opportunity this is the first
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: game I think in perty's a regular season career. I
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: can remember him being an underdog. I know when he
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: played the Eagles, he was underdog in the playoffs when
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: he got hurt, but Purdy, the books ever respected him
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: his whole career. I mean, I'll never forget when he
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: first came in me and Chad. I had to beg
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: Chad to take him against Arizona. I think he was
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: a minus four and a half favorite and we were
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: just like I get with Chad's covery. He's like, I'm
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: unsure about It's like, no, we just played this spot.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: I think they rolled him in that first game, and
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: then it's just been on the roll since then. So
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: big deal. The fact that the books had made this
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: dog and Chad knows. I viewed this that this was
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: gonna flip just because of that, Like I thought the
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: pub would come in, the books would respect it, and
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: they would move it to being him being a favorite
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: by Sunday. Still could happen. So it's another thing where
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: it's like I want to play some number because I
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: could still see this flipping once we know all the
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: guys are healthy for this forty nine ers team. So yeah, chat.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. If you can grab the
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: two right now, I'd grab it.
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: This is a little bit of foreshadowing. I just wonder
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: if it's worth playing the money line, Like.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: If it's already down to it by the time we
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: get off the show, which is live, and these numbers
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: move fast when we're talking. If it's at one and
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: a half or one, I might just play the Niners
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: on the money line. That's fair Arizona. At Seattle, this
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: game has gone crazy like a kid at a bouncy house.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Cars plus one, cars minus one. Cars plus one now
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: is minus one again. You mentioned it in sharp calls.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: This was a Sunday play for us. We bet the
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Cardinals a plus one and a half. You said you
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: saw it at two some places. This was my exac decision.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I believe you like it too.
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: Do we like it enough to make it when of
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: our final five?
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I thought I would break on this one, Chat,
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: I really did. I thought I would make it so
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: we wouldn't take this one. Evan had something amazing in
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: his article that I know you had to have seen it.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: So Gino Smith we talked about his struggles this year,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: especially at home in his career. So since the beginning
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: of last season, Gino Smith is three ten ats at home,
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: the worst mark of any quarterback in football. Did you
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: see who his three covers were against? It was against
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Skyler Thompson, Josh Dobbs and Andy Dalton. Yeah, what are
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: we doing here? Can we not overthink this one for
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: once in our lives? No, we're just there. I know,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: we got to live with the consequences. It sucks because
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: we both have a little weird feeling about this Arizona
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: when it feels too easy, a little little trappish.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, once I saw that, It's just like when
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: we were got in Cleveland as a dog. They end
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: up as the favorite and we still take them because
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: we feel like we're getting, you know, a good number
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: at plus half a point. That's honestly, that's what's in
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the back of my head right now. And they were
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: coming off a bye.
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: Are you kidding me? I know.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: So it's just it really is to me about this
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: Arizona team's been a cent They've been playing so well.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: It would burn us right if they had a let
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: down game here. But I think Gino is gonna make
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: it so we're not gonna have a letdown game. He's
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: just been horrible at home. He just does not live
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: up to the moments at home, and that's reflective of
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: this season. They're one to five against the spread at
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: home this season. Like, that's not the Seahawks we're used to,
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: I mean the last twenty years. Yeah, you could always
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: count on them, as bad as they would go through
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: their up and downs, You could always count on them
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: at home. Those days are long gone. So yeah, chah,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: maybe we're walking into it. Maybe there's other games you
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: like more. This won't be one of our five. But
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: as we city here right now, it's like, if we
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: have to force one in, I'm okay with us putting Ariazon,
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: even though it is a little fishy here. It's just like, man,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: you can't deny that this guy struggled against good quarterbacks.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: And as much as people want to deny it, Kyler
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Murray is playing like a top five, top six quarterback
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: right now, like he has been balling out. So yeah,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: just feels like a nice number in a nice spot.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we have five games on the list right now,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: and I know we don't want to put the Titans
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: on there, but we like the Panthers, Titans, Colts, San Francisco.
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: Arizona the last game.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: We have two more games to discuss and the Philadelphia
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: at the Rams. The Rams are three point dogs. This
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: has been bouncing around. I love the Eagles here and
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: you love the Rams and this was your Simon says,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: and I just don't get it. Like this Eagles defense
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: is legit. They've gone from twenty seventh in the league
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: in EPA allowed to number one the past since Week five,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: like they have a really good defensive secondary. The Rams
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: have been entirely inconsistent. We have been on the Rams
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the past three weeks. I feel like we've gotten away
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: with it. Last week we got burned the week before.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: They make too many mistakes. Something is inconsistent about the
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: way they're playing this offense. I don't think they'll be
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: able to run the ball as effectively as they had
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: been able to do.
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: That opens up their passing game.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: I I just don't get. I don't get why the
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Eagles aren't to play here. I'm surprised that you're not
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: with me on this.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Been around the block, Chad, been around a long time
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: to know better than the step into this trap. This
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: is a fishy game with a fishy line. I just
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: think people are undervaluing this Rams team while they're overvaluing
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: this Eagles team. Now, Chad says that this tam has
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: turned it around. Okay, let's start from the top. They
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: lost sixteen to thirty three to Tampa, this Eagles team.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Then they went on a bye a week and we
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: all agree, whatever happened with fangs in that defense, all
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: these young guys, they've they've been better since that bye week.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: They came out, they beat Cleveland twenty to sixteen. They
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: didn't cover. You know, that was a game they easually
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: could have lost. Next week, they blow out the Giants, Okay,
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: earn that win. Next week they dominate that Cincinnati team.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: That's another game we respect. They deserve that win. Then
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: they had that weird game with the Jaguars, which they
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: almost lost once again. That's what I'm trying to make
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: a point here of like they're up and down. They're
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: inconsistent this team this season. And then Dallas once again
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: they blew them out. And then Washington that was kind
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: of a felt like a lucky game to them, right.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: Jane Daniels, he just was not himself in that game.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: Was not hitting throws that guys were open, Like he
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: had guys open. He just was not making the throws
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: against that Eagles team. So as good as this Eagles
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: team has been, I don't think they're not the lines
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Like this is not some juggernaut team that doesn't have
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: some major issues like this to me is a team
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: that has been fortunate, a little bit unlucky, and just
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: overrated right now, like this should be a pick. This
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: is the numbers just moved too much to me. That's
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: why I don't like it. Where Sunday night, I was
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: blind to it because I kind of had the same
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: thought of you of, like this Eagles team is way better,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: Like they're better in this RAMS team. They are consistent offensively,
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: they actually have guys that can get stops defensively. But
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: then when you really look at it, it's like, you
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: know what, this RAMS team is not that bad, Like
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: they're just in my mind they're just like this Eagles team.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: I mean you could say they don't have the big
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: names on defense, They've drafted really well, like these last
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: couple of drafts have been great for this Rams. Yeah,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: that D line is actually pretty good, and you know
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: this matchup to me, is gonna come down to the quarterbacks.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: And I don't trust Hurts right now, Chad. I'll be honest.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: I just there's just something a little off about him
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: right now. So with me, this rams teme in this moment,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: I looked at Evans trends didn't make me too confident.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: Like I've seen Stafford has actually struggled as an underdog,
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: especially since he's been in LA. But I don't know
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: if you saw how bad Hurts has been in night
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: games on the road. He has not been good in
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: his career on the road in these night games. So
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: this is really about me trust the numbers, trusting the
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: sports book, and this is why they're all these tall
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: buildings build in Las Vegas, Chad, Like, this is the
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: definition of a trap game on something that's.
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: The worst fucking cliche.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: That's like what they say, that's what old people like
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: me say. That's not a bang in frame.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: I've thirty times this week about this game. It's the truth.
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: It gives me confidence.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna be coming in with their grandma trying to
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: get fat and rich off this Eagles team on Sunday night,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: and they're gonna lose. This is such a bad chase
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: spot for the general public.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: All right, look, I owe you one because we put
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Cleveland in last week and you wanted to put the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Chargers and that was the difference between three and two
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: and four and one for us. So if you're going
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: to feel strongly about it, I have already bet the
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: Eagles aggressively here. And so if I'm going to have
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: to eat one and you feel a lot better about
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: the Rams than any other games, then we're probably gonna
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: have to put it in because that might be the
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: last option because the only other one on the list
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: that you know is playable is Tennessee.
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: Of the games that like.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Another not you love Tennessee. I'm not That's what I'm saying.
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: I was just, dude, I was just going to say
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: the only other game that like, I know you.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Keep saying their name, though, stop saying to see.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: What is it like? Not Marvin Harris like that. We
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: quasi agree on that.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: I that like, if there were no other options you
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: would be comfortable going with is Tennessee, which means you
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: like the Rams, which means our five are gonna end
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: up being the Panthers, the Colts, the Niners, the Cardinals,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: and the Rams, and I'm gonna have to bet against
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: myself because I've already aggressively bet with real.
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: Dollars on the E which is fine.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I'm.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: Willing to eat it. I'm gonna eat it. It's fine.
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: Do we want to say anything about the Chargers and
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: the Ravens. I feel like I could go either way
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: on this. I kind of like the Chargers.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: I wanted to be at three and a half, but
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know that I like the Chargers better than Panthers, Colts,
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Niners are Cardinals, and I definitely don't think you like
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: the Chargers better than you like the Rams.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: No, it sucks. I wanted to be on the Charger
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: as well, but at two and a half, it's like,
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: I feel like that's where the is in the Ravens
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: with the general public. But yeah, this is this feels
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: like a game that maybe there's something I'm missing here
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: because it's It's also like I don't really understand the
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: movement here. I don't know why this numbers come down
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: so which I get why the professionals are on the
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Chargers at plus three. I just don't know why the
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: books have moved off the plus three. It's just been
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: all Ravens money. So maybe I'll just stay away from it,
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: or maybe ill end up betting the Chargers once once
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: it comes Monday night of the plus three. But yeah,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know. That's this is just a weird week
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: where like I love all the primetime dogs and that's
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: that's really works out for me. So, uh, this is
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: either going to be a really really bad week for
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: the general public orm actually I'm gonna get absolutely slaughtered.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: No, it's not.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: You know why because the first thing you said on
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Sunday again, I remember everything you ever say. You said
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: this upcoming week is going to be a bad week
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: for the public. You said you love the lines.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: It feels that way, you love the games.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: I was having a hard time. You gave me some confidence.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: By the time I got to Wednesday afternoon again, like
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: two or three in the afternoon, I'm like, you know what,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: some ugly numbers here, But that's an opportunity for us.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: We are we are sussing out the opportunity.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: Now we need a favorite. Chad. What's what's going on
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: with the Broncos? How do you feel about the Broncos
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: five and a half?
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: It feels that feels trappy to me. Like, I know
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: you're saying wise guys like it, but it's a vision game.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: The Raiders keep finding ways to stick around and then
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: blow it. But what if there's a week where they
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: don't blow it? Right?
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: And so that's a big what if? Yeah, I and
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: I just you know, I just you love dogs like
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: you're also scared of Timy DeVito. Something's wrong in your
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: brain where you're like, I think Timy Vito might be
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: better for the Giants, And what fucking world is Timmy
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: DeVito better.
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: For the I want to I want to hammer the
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: Giants and plus.
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: I just do.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, we have a favorite, we have the Cardinals.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: Depends on your shock and that is true because there's
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: still a bunch of plus ones out there.
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna do. Let's put the Broncos
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: on there. You and I will have to sort of
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: narrow it down, and it might it might end up
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: being on Sunday. We want to move things around. I
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: don't think the Broncos are in our final five right now.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I think the final five is probably Panthers, Colts, Niners, Cards.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: And rams.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: A What a five? What a five?
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Unbelievable. Our big balls is the Colts. Our foxhole is
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: the Panthers. Are boosted money line underdog parlay. Each week
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: we give out a two team money line dog parlay.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five is gonna boost those odds and
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: Remember, both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked as
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: a win if either team takes a seventeen point lead,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: even if they lose. If you want to bet this
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: bet at bet three six five, the boost did parlay
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers in RAMS feel like I'm getting bullied.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: He just undressed him all the way around. Look at that.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: He just got it handed too.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: It forty nine Ers and Rams find the Boost under
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: either the forty nine Ers or RAMS game pages. I'm
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: bet three six five. A reminder quick programming note. Next
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: week is Thanksgiving. We do not do a thanks a
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: Thursday episode on Thanksgiving. Obviously, I won't be around because
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: I'll be packing up my mother in law's house in
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: Staten Island. We will not have our normal Thursday episode.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: As this tradition, Simon and I will pack everything all
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: of our picks, all of our segments, the one Mega
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: spectacular episode on Tuesday.
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: At our normal time, Simon, what is our money line?
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: Underdog round Robin.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: Well, come up payday, halleluya. Wanta pay day. I will
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: come up payday some day. Some day I will come
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: up pay day, Yo, payday. I will come up payday
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: some day.
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: Here were my suggestions? Are you ready?
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: San Francisco, the Colts love it? Chicago?
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: What else you got?
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: Rams love it? New England love it?
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Oh?
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: No way, yeah, why not? I love I love them.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: They're big numbers like that, all right, Well, I just
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: gave you four, So give me one plus three ten
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: paired with the Colts plus three twenty. It's those hit.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: That's a great that's it.
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: That's a Thanksgiving miracle right there. So give me one.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Then I got damn Cardinals are minus one o eight.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: So I guess we can't do Cardono.
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: Yes, New England, San Francisco, Indy so far, and I.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: Mean, unfortunately, I guess we can't do Browns because it's
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: too not enough listeners will hear it? Yeah, because that
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: would definitely be a nice I go, I'm gonna personally
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: throw that one in. I mean, the only other one
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I can think of for us is the Chargers. They're
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: plus one fifteen. I guess we kind of have to.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: It's a tough week right now for the Dogs. So yeah,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: I'll take that number.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: How about your biggest bets early here?
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: Definitely Rams plus three, Chargers plus three, you know for
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: these big dogs getting pretty heavy at this point on
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: this Colts team, this Panthers team. So I would say
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: as we sit here right now, my biggest bet is
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: definitely that Rams in the forty nine ers, where if
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: you can get to two to me, that's a big
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: deal of this forty nine Ers team. I just I've
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: been hitting this number just because I do think it's
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: gonna flip. You know, that's not to my biggest year,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: that four hours one. So yeah, the Colts one comes Sunday.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: That or the Rams. Why not be my biggest bet
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: when all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: Let's play Scots Roulette.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: Simon, guess who won Scoot roulettel week?
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: Did you?
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: He's got two thumbs and he says, banging, I took Detroit,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: you took Kansas City. I'm going with the indieplis quotes
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: and Scoot Roulett.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: I'll go the Rams just because Chad likes the Eagles
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: so much.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: I was gonna take the Eagles, and like, I just
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: couldn't do it to myself to have him in the
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: contest and have to reform for Scooch Roulett and have
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: bet on him. All Right, before we get out of here,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: let's bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams, the
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: man we reference. So we should start setting a line
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: on how often we reference Evan Abrams in our show.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Maybe Matt Mitchell can set that. Take it away, Evan
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: the last word. With Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that was a really good segue to this. So
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: let's head into this. Things can only go so right
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: for so long. Teams to score twenty four plus points
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: in five straight games and are listed as a favorite
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: are just forty five percent against the spread since two
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: thousand and three, when they've also won all five of
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: those games, it's down to forty two. Yes that includes Detroit,
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: who is forty one and fifteen against the sprint over
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: the last three years. And yes that also includes Philadelphia,
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: who is seven to oh straight up with aj Brown,
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: this year scoring thirty points per game, you could say
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: Detroit and Philly are pretty much banging right now going
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: into the next one here Carolina, and I know you
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: guys are all over this, so I had to kind
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: of split this up and give you a different angle
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: on it. So Patrick Mahomes has started forty four games
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: as a road favorite in his career. When the home
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: team scores less than twenty, he's eleven zho and two
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: against the spread. As a road favorite, when they score
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: twenty or more, he is just nine and twenty two
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: against the spread. This bet is just about how many
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: points can Bryce YOUWNG get on the board depending on
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: the entire game. If he scores you know, one touchdown,
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: two touchdown, Mahome's going to cover the game. So you
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: might want to look into the team total in Carolina.
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: That's another angle to kind of play there. And Chad,
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: you had mentioned the Caleb Williams sack stats. Well, I
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: found a little bit more of a simpler one. It
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: kind of says the same story. So at this point,
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: a bet on Chicago is a bet on their offensive line.
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: It's just as simple as that. When Caleb gets sacked
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: four plus times, they are zero to four straight up,
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: scoring forty one points in four total games three or
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: less sacks. They're four and two straight up. More importantly,
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: they're averaging twenty six point two points per game and
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: scoring twenty plus and five of those six games Ibra
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: Fluss face to Flores defense twice. Chicago has scored twenty
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: five total points in those games, eight combined sacks. So
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: it just depends on how Caleb can do in this one.
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: But it's all about the sacks. That is a great stat.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: If there maybe we should be betting a sacks prop
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: in that game and avoiding avoiding the number altogether. Thank you,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. I think you're spot on when you reference
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: the Detroit trends. I think you're pretty often you're reference
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: in the contexts of Philadelphia. As a reminder, The Favorite
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three six y five and
• 56:59
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• 57:53
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• 57:57
  Speaker 1: the podcast and on the utuoube page. Simon and I
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: will return where with our next episode of the Favorites
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night, seven thirty
• 58:07
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• 58:15
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