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Russia Ukraine war: can Europe stop Putin on its own? · The Fourcast

0:00
Welcome to the special edition of the forecast from Berlin.
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Two big events of course. 1 is the three-year anniversary of
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the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the other is the German
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election which has produced. The lead candidate?
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Of the Christian Democrats, the CDU, Friedrich Merz as the man
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very likely to be, I mean almost certain to be the next
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chancellor. But he said, astonishingly on
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German television that Germany and Europe have to wean
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themselves off the United. States off their.
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Security umbrella. So given the fact that you've
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got an aggressor to the east in the shape of Vladimir Putin and
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an antagonist, if you like, in the shape of Donald Trump on the
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western flank, can Germany, can Europe even do this?
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Some really enormous challenges to discuss all these very
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complex but fascinating issues. I'm very happy to say that I'm
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joined down by two guests, Alina Purolova, who's the former
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deputy defence minister of Ukraine, and Bovgangishenia, who
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was Germany's ambassador to Washington, but also head of the
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Munich Security Conference between 2008 and 2022 and is
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still the president emeritus, if you like, of that illustrious
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organization. Let me start with you,
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Wolfgangishenger, if I may, Friedrich Matz himself said.
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It's astonishing to hear me say on German television that
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Germany has to wean itself off America's security umbrella.
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Is that even possible? Well, first of all, it's great
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to be on your show. It's wonderful.
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I, I, I look forward to our discussion regarding Freddy's
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statement of last night. I would warn against over
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interpreting this. What he is saying is in fact,
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what we've all been saying, namely that Europe needs to get
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its act together more, Europe needs to do more, and Europe
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needs to create a greater self-reliance.
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And that means also that Europe needs to be capable of defending
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our own common positions, including, of course, of the
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very important issue of how we go about continuing to defend
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the, to defend our partner Ukraine.
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So just to make sure that everybody understands, Friedrich
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Matz, whom I know quite well, is the last person on earth who
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would want a weaker NATO, who would want to disassociate
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himself or Germany from the United States or from the North
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Atlantic alliance. We all know how dependent we
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are. And the question is, can we make
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ourselves a little less totally dependent on, you know, let's
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say on Donald Trump and what he has been saying.
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We are very concerned. I am personally very concerned
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that certain statements by the President of the United States
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would tend to weaken the credibility and the capability
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of NATO, at least as seen potentially by our adversaries
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in Moscow. So again, let's not over
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interpret the merge statement of last night.
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It's in line with the general idea of doing more and creating
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more self-reliance for Europe in the area of security and
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defence. We'll talk about, you know, the
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details of that in terms of defence spending in a minute.
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But Alina, if I could turn to you that there you are in Kiev.
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You're watching the Europeans have this debate with
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themselves. You're watching the spat between
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Paris and Berlin and Washington. And then, of course, the
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conversation between Bosco and Washington about the future of
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your country to which you are not party at the moment.
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You must be tearing your hair out.
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It takes too much time and it takes too long for Europeans to
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finally get into reality. I mean that if something is like
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moving like dark, sounds like dark and behave like dark,
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probably this is dark. And I think that Europeans need
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to accept that they're responsible for their security.
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They need to have their own capabilities to defend the
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security. They need to identify enemies.
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They need to be prepared by themselves as well as
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Ukrainians. And I think that this could be a
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start for being ready because otherwise I don't expect that we
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can, you know, see the some kind of different paths from Trump
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policy. Trump obviously is intending to
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destroy NATO, to destroy UN, to leave the Europe and whatever we
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could say trying to find some kind of other meaning other
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options. This is the reality.
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And you know, military always trying to plan the worst case
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scenario. I think it's time to have a
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worst case scenario and to understand.
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And I think that the what what we see now, this is like a
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quieter result of all the long term policy of the European
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politicians, unfortunately. And that is why probably so
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difficult to acknowledge that because this is responsibility
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of all them and to move forward with Ukraine.
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I should tell you that we know where we are moving.
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We know that without United States, it would be much more
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difficult and more losses. But it doesn't mean that we will
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accept whatever is like us deciding behind our neck.
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And we, we can define ourselves as a nation, We can define our
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path, and we will follow it. Wolfgang, worst case scenario,
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which could be, you know, the Russians at some stage trying to
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attempt some kind of invasional military action against a NATO
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member like the Baltic republics or indeed Poland.
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And here in Berlin, I mean, you know, you talk to people of a
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certain generation, they're very worried that they could see war
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again, even in this city, which seems like a totally outlandish
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scenario. But nothing, as far as many
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people here are concerned, is off the table.
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Here's my question. If it is a worst case scenario
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that Europe has to prepare for, then won't we see, you know,
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people like the polls say, well, actually we're not going to send
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troops to Ukraine as a trip wire or peacekeepers.
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We need them for ourselves. We're not going to be sending
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newly made weapons to the war in Ukraine because we might need
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them for a rainy day for ourselves.
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So the the the threat of Putin in the East and kind of
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increasing antagonism from our protector in the United States,
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it means that it's basically doggy dog.
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Yes, indeed, One always needs in grand strategy, in in, in
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defence, in foreign policy, to think about the possible worst
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case. And the realistic worst case is,
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of course, to be to be concerned about Russia potentially
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exploring opportunities not only to eliminate the sovereign
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existence of Ukraine, but to further in in increase its
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territorial ambitions in in Central Europe, looking at
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Georgia, looking at Moldavia, looking potentially at the
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Baltic states. So I think these fears are not
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unfounded. And This is why we need to do a
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lot more. I am not prepared to accept at
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this moment that the United States is about to abandon NATO.
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I've not heard anyone suggest that I'm, I'm worried about the
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spat which was created couple days ago between President Trump
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and President Zelensky. I hope this can be smoothed
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over. I I, I would very much hope that
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the United States uses its power to convene a meaningful
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negotiating strategy and negotiating process about the
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future of Ukraine, but surely not without Ukraine, surely not
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about above the head of Ukraine, and surely in coordination with
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European partners. How would the United States wish
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to implement the result of a negotiating process being 5000
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miles away, if not through the means, the capabilities at the
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presence of the European neighbors of Ukraine?
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So we are the natural partners, neighbors and we are the ones
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who are going to be burdened with the outcome.
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So we need to be part of the process and I think we will be
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part of the process. I'm not prepared to to consider
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what has happened as either the end of NATO, the end of US
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support for independent and sovereign Ukraine.
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We're only now at the beginning, on on the eve so to speak, of a
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negotiating process which hasn't even started seriously.
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Bofka, you said that surely, surely Europe has to be involved
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in the implementation of whatever comes out of these
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ceasefire talks, but this surely still work in the world of
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Donald Trump. I happen to be among those who
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have been saying and thinking that it was totally OK for the
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United States to start the opening gambit, to take the
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first step. Who else but the United States
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could have started at a first discussion with Russia?
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That's what happened in Saudi Arabia.
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It was, as far as I can tell, with respect to Ukraine, a kind
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of exploratory discussion, but not yet the beginning of
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meaningful direct negotiations either with or hopefully with
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Ukraine and and including in some shape or form the European.
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So I am, I'm a lot less worried about what happened in Riyadh
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than some other people are. I think that was OK if the next
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step is the start of a negotiating of a more inclusive
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negotiating process about the future of Ukraine.
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You make it sound so reasonable and and so relatively
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optimistic. Alina Folova, do you share that
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reasonable optimism? No, I don't share unfortunately
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I and I think that unfortunately Mr. Ocean very whole cannot be a
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part of the strategy and this is what we lack.
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We lack strategy with continue to hope.
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I just to remind you that in 2020 he was co-author of the
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document which was published on Munich conference when you
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proposed also the I did like a discussion about national
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identity of Ukraine involved in Russia.
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And this is something which like everyone is trying to to do so I
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don't know from where it is like the, the basic value which is
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declared is that nations has the right to decide their destiny.
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But then we hear all this like a talks from politicians that OK,
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that's fine, that Russia will identify how they would like to
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kill you and what kind of identity you will have.
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And this is like a something which became normal because the
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declaration of the values were one side and the political
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actions were absolutely different.
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And this is the concentration of that is Trump.
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He doesn't have the same logic, unfortunately, which like a
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normal people should have. Yeah, that's obvious that Europe
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should should be on the table. That's obvious that Ukraine
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should be on the table. But they have another logic and
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this is something which is all the all the time skipped by
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Europeans when they plan to plan some strategies, they think that
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the normal logic will prevail. No, it is not.
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And from what we see the, from what we can identify now,
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because no one knows for sure, the Trump position is that we he
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want to be with the stronger party.
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He considered that the Russia is the stronger Parker.
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And if they will decide something with Russia
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automatically it will happen. Of course, it won't happen like
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that, but this is what looks like their strategy.
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They want to have a deal with Russia and then they don't care
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how many political, I don't know, troops, how many European
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troops would would be on the ground, how it would be.
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He will declare that he has a deal, that's it.
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His task is not settlement of the conflict.
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His task is to make a deal. Right.
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And the mission of, of Russia is to deny Ukraine the right of
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existence as a sovereign. That is what they want.
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That's why they don't want troops on the ground.
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That is what they've always wanted.
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This isn't about territory. This is about Ukraine's
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existence. So I'll ask you, Wolfgang,
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whether you represent. I represent, you know, Alina's a
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bit younger than us, but where, where do we represent a world
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that has disappeared, you know, because of Donald Trump and
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Vladimir Putin and others? And in the new world order,
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might is right, whether we like it or not.
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I'm not ready to share the pessimism which has just been
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expressed by our Ukrainian participant.
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Again, negotiations haven't even started, and my prediction is
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that the Trump administration will discover rather quickly
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that Russia is not simply going to sign on to whatever
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suggestions or proposals the United States is going to make.
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I totally agree with what has just been said, that Russia will
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continue to aim for opportunities to really, you
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know, eliminate the sovereign and separate existence of a free
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and independent Ukraine. I don't think that the United
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States, I don't think that Donald Trump is ready to accept
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that kind of notion. I'm not his spokesperson,
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obviously, but I just can't, cannot imagine that it would be
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in the interest of Donald Trump when he thinks about China or
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when he thinks about anything else in, in, in grand strategy.
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That it would be in his interest after the disastrous departure
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by the United States from Afghanistan to show for a second
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time within just a couple of years how you abandoned a
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partner and, and, and, and you know, and an ally and somebody
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who you've been supporting for, for, for really for many years.
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Sometimes it is being forgotten in this discussion that it was
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it was not Obama, it was not Joe Biden, but it was Donald Trump
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who was the first American president who gave to Ukraine
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lethal weapons in 2017. Without the Javelins, the
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Ukrainian army could not have defended itself as effectively
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as they did when the Russians flew in their helicopters into
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the Ostomel airport exactly 3 years ago today.
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So, you know, there are always two sides of this.
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And, and again, we're only at the beginning.
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We need smart diplomacy. And I think America will
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discover, maybe put this colloquially, that Vladimir
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Putin is going to be a very, very hard nut to crack and that
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this may actually take a very long time to agree a document
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that everybody can agree with to gain Europeans, United States
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and Russia. To also use vernacular, Trump
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doesn't want to be seen as a major loser the way that Biden
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was after the rather hasty departure from Afghanistan, even
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though it was Trump who first suggested getting out of
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Afghanistan when he was still president.
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Alina, when you look at the rather confused picture of
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what's going on in Europe at the moment, you know, the Brits are
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suggesting sending troops. You know, Mr. Matz, the new
16:28
chancellor says, I want to wean myself off America.
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The Poles are saying, well, actually those troops, we like
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to keep them, keep them ourselves in a coherent world.
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What would you actually like the Europeans and especially the new
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German government to do for Ukraine?
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Well, the the first, the first I would like to address about my
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pessimism. This is not pessimism.
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This is like a real, quite a realistic, from my point of view
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position, which gives us a possibility to plan the future
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and to act to in accordance with that plan.
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And I think that's what Europeans could do.
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That's I still believe in the yamsis I still believe in
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because collective defence, yes, but unfortunately the this is I
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don't expect it would be NATO for the next 5 or something
17:15
years. So I think that building up the
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some kind of new alliances of those nations who are ready to
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step in and defend their way of living, not only the like a
17:30
project something, but to defend their way of living.
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And I think that we can speak about the nor did Baltic
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countries, friends, possibly Germany now I believe so Czech
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Republic and some other countries who are ready to act.
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And this is something which Ukraine should invest and invest
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in now. It's like attention and
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attempts. And this is something which
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Europeans need to invest. I don't think that we need now
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to spend the time for trying to ensure Orban, for example, to
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join this or someone else. I think that what we need is to
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to have this like a fast collective defence agreements
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and possibility of factions and understanding of those sections
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of those nations who are ready to do so, because the time is
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passing by and Ukraine is paying quite a high price.
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Of course we need the weapons, of course we need investments.
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Of course we need some kind of collective collaboration in
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exchange and of experience, which Ukraine has.
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But that that's realistic. EU still has one of the biggest
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economies in the world and how does it project in, for example
18:42
defence industry? I don't think that this is right
18:44
approach. Let's say the German Chancellor
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has a stable coalition, and let's say he manages to, you
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know, impose his role that German towers missiles which
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Ukrainians want will be sent to Ukraine.
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Right. Which has been blocked by the by
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the outgoing chancellor until now.
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At the same time, you've got ceasefire talks between Russia
19:02
and America. I mean, surely that's an excuse.
19:05
Those talks are an excuse not to send more weapons to Ukraine to
19:10
put you in a stronger position. Well, yeah, for some nations,
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yes. For those who do understand, it
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won't be an excuse because Russian is in peaceful talks
19:18
with US. But last night it was the
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biggest number of the drones and UAV sent to Ukraine and to Kiev.
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It was like around 300 UV is only plus missiles.
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Russia is intensifying. They're like attacks now,
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demonstrating that they still have a force to do so.
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And so why it should stop us from doing so.
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Yes, the negotiations are going on.
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Fine. Let's look where it will lead.
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Which doesn't mean that we need just to stand and look how they
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will kill us. But we still need to fight and
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fight back and get the better positions.
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That is why I think that those politicians who are just like a
19:56
have a clear mind. Did you understand it?
19:58
And I don't expect that Europe will decrease now supplies of
20:01
weapons. OK, Wolfka, look, looking at the
20:04
situation in Germany, it is absolutely fascinating that the
20:08
mainstream parties have been squeezed, the parties that have
20:11
done well, the Afd, you know, the best result in 12 years of
20:15
it's. History de.
20:17
Linker, the left party, the kind of hangover from, you know, the
20:20
East German communist regime. Oddly enough, they did very well
20:23
in West German cities. But both those fringe parties on
20:26
the right and the left are anti NATO in his current existence.
20:32
They are anti war in Ukraine. They want to sue for peace.
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And these are the young people who would have to fight if
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Germany, let's say had conscription again.
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That's the problem is that German society, even if you can
20:46
find the money to spend on weapons, society is not ready
20:51
for any kind of military confrontation with someone like
20:54
Russia or indeed weaning itself of, you know, sugar daddy
20:58
America. Well, actually the situation in
21:00
in Germany is even more confusing than you just
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described it. Steady on.
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That was confusing enough. Let me give you the most, the
21:08
most brilliant example of the confusion.
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The Afd, who you just described correctly as a party to, which
21:17
unfortunately regret edibly as I see it, many young people have
21:22
have have wondered. The Afd is the only party which
21:27
is actually demanding the reintroduction of conscription.
21:31
Interestingly enough, that has apparently not deterred many,
21:35
many young people from from voting in favour of this right
21:39
wing party. You're right, the result of this
21:43
election is not brilliant, is not brilliant at all, but it is
21:50
reliably good in order to change the cause and the dynamics of
21:57
German domestic and foreign policy, Germans of domestic
22:01
policy. The, The main reason why the
22:05
right wing and the left wing have gained so much ground has
22:10
been our unsuccessful attempts so far at limiting illegal
22:16
migration. This is the same thing in other,
22:18
in other countries, obviously, it's even in the United States.
22:22
One of the main reasons why, you know, Donald Trump won and and
22:26
not not his adversary. But let me just add one point on
22:31
on Ukraine. I have personally advocated, I
22:36
don't know how many times that we should turn things around and
22:42
not re not continue to react to what Russia has been doing and
22:47
complaining that Russia is bombing or destroying, you know,
22:52
Ukrainian hospitals and attacking civilian
22:54
installations. I've been arguing for a very
22:58
long time that we should turn things around and tell President
23:02
Putin we as the West. I'm not not talking about a
23:05
German position, I'm talking about the West, Western
23:08
position, NATO position. If you wish we should turn turn
23:11
things around and tell the Russians you, you bomb one more
23:15
hospital or one more civilian installation, then don't be
23:19
surprised if we deliver more weapons and more long range
23:23
weapons, etcetera, etcetera to the to to Ukraine.
23:27
Unless peace, a ceasefire agreement has actually been
23:32
signed and put in place, we need to continue to deliver
23:38
equipment, military goods, ammunition, etcetera to Ukraine.
23:43
Stopping deliveries now is the best recipe for strengthening
23:50
the case of of the Russian, you know, occupation of even a
23:56
greater part of Ukrainian land in the east.
23:59
And there we are finally, and this is literally one line of
24:02
prediction from both of you and a painful question, if you don't
24:05
mind. Alina, do you think that in four
24:09
years time, come the next German election, Ukraine will still be
24:12
a sovereign independent country? Yes or no?
24:18
Wolfgang, in four years time, come the next German election,
24:21
do you think the next German Chancellor will be called Alice
24:24
Weidel from the Afd? No, no, I don't think so.
24:28
And I don't think so. And I would simply say that we
24:32
need to understand that German voters, I think, are beginning
24:35
to understand that the Russian aggression against Ukraine does
24:41
not simply require us to support Ukraine.
24:45
It is, it needs to be considered a threat to our very European
24:51
existence and our values. It's an attack on Europe, not
24:56
just on Ukraine. And that's why we need to prop
24:59
up our defensive effort, not because Donald Trump wants us to
25:03
do more, but because we need to defend ourselves.
25:06
We need to defend Europe. And that's an extraordinary
25:10
thing to hear from a former German ambassador to the US and
25:13
head of the Munich Security Conference.
25:16
Thanks very much to both of you. We'll get back to you in four
25:18
years time, assuming that we're still all around and not
25:21
speaking to you from a bunker somewhere.
25:23
Alina Frolova and Volkanishika, thank you very much.
25:26
That's it from the special edition of the forecast in
25:30
Berlin. Goodbye.