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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from SAS for
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Insecurities, not in Johannesburg,
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but on one of his fact-finding missions, many fact-finding missions to the United
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States.
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He's in Manhattan.
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He's just come back from a run in Central Park.
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David, how cold is it, please?
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Well, in Fahrenheit, it was 22 to 24 degrees Fahrenheit,
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which comes to minus five to minus six degrees centigrade.
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Now, you know, in our part of the world, we don't know those kind of cold
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temperatures.
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The one thing about America is that you get the clothes that you can actually run
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in those kind of temps.
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So I was fine, you know, I was okay.
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But, Lindsay, you breathe in cold air.
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And what happens is you're...
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Your tongue freezes.
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When you come back and try to talk to people, you can't get the words out.
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There are several people.
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Literally, you're frozen.
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There are several cynical people, David, that know you very well and say there's
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nothing, not even a frozen tongue, that can stop you talking.
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But that's, of course, not me.
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A cup of Irish breakfast tea.
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Oh, lovely.
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How wonderful.
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I need to live my war life vicariously through you.
1:14
I've just seen Pete Hegseth, and he didn't do it for me.
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I just saw the chap called Daniel Shapiro, actually, the former U.S.
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ambassador to Israel.
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He was talking about it, and I didn't quite get a sense of what's really going
1:27
on.
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What's really going on is people like you having their travel plans disrupted.
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That's the first thing.
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Have you had them disrupted yet?
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You know what?
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We haven't made a final decision.
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But to be honest, Lindsay, I can't see it happening.
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You can't book a flight.
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You know that.
1:44
You can't book a flight because...
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Many people from South Africa, even though I'm traveling from New York, many people
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travel via the
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Emirates, Qatar, those areas, or Ethiopia.
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But you can't get a flight into Israel at the moment.
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And so airspace there is disrupted.
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And I would imagine everything is disrupted.
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Now, this weekend is the festival of Purim, which is a celebratory.
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You know, Celebratory Festival, and people dress up and eat and, you know, there's a
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whole lot of tradition around it.
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Sadly, all these festivities have been cancelled.
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And I know that because I've got a granddaughter there.
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She's on a year program.
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She's from America.
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She's due to go to college.
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She was due to go to college.
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This was a gap year.
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But it's an educational program.
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And I think the saddest thing is that they had four different parties planned, you
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know, all of which are being cancelled.
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constantly running to shelters.
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And I think as a parent, as a grandparent, everyone's worried.
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You're worried because you've got these barrage of missiles coming through.
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Every now and again, one's going to sneak through and cause damage,
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as we saw with that one building where I think eight or nine people were killed.
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So, yeah, it's a terribly worrying time.
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But I think the Israelis themselves, I don't think they get used to it.
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I think they might become hardened to it and that, but I don't think they get used
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to it.
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And I've got cousins there as well.
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And they're talking about the issues living in a bomb shelter, you know,
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because, I mean, they're going there in a few minutes.
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David, people are dying.
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I mean, it's not dozens of people.
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It's not hundreds of people.
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It's a few people here and there.
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But there's still a few people that would still be alive today if Trump hadn't had
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this idea to go into Iran.
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He said that he'd...
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got rid of, obliterated their nuclear program, their nuclear ambitions, and
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suddenly he comes up with this latest one.
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He's hitting missile launchers and coming up with some ideas, and maybe it's all
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based on intelligence.
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I mean, Israeli and American intelligence found out exactly when the late Ayatollah
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Khamenei,
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exactly where he was going to be, and he would be with his colleagues.
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They were having a meeting very early in the morning, and they dropped 30 bombs on
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him just to make sure.
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And they did.
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So maybe they've got some intelligence that they can't share with the world.
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But it just seems a bit random to me, especially when…
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I think that was the major point.
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Trump couldn't go back to Congress.
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He couldn't go phone the opposition and sit down and talk and have a discussion.
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They were there.
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It was daylight.
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Normally the raids would take place in the evening.
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But they had this opportunity and they had to say yes or no.
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And I was, I don't think they could.
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...lither about it.
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Yes.
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And I think that's what probably prompted it.
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You know, I'm just recalling what the discussions are here, what I'm picking up
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on TV and through various channels.
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I'm trying to think when...
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Sorry, I get to interrupt you because I've got this thing in my head of when Trump
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first announced that he was sending or diverting
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the carrier Abraham Lincoln for where it was towards the Gulf.
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I think it was when the protests against the regime and
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were put down so bloodily by the regime itself.
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And then he said, right, we're going to help you.
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And he sent that Abraham Lincoln, that must have been, what, two months ago or
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something.
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He sent it there, and then the Gerald Ford, and all the support ships,
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dozens and dozens of support ships and aircraft and refuelers and everything that
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goes with the palaver of war.
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So he suddenly said, I'm going to help you.
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And he's got this in his head.
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He was probably sitting on the toilet at 2.30 in the morning.
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I'm sorry I've got that image in my head of him doing that because a lot of his
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tweets go out at 2.30 on Truth Social,
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sitting on his gold throne there.
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But I really think that when you've spent that amount of money and diverted so many
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of your normal operations, training operations,
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I really think that he had to do it, otherwise he'd look silly.
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No, he had an agenda.
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This wasn't planned overnight.
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This has been months and months in the making.
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And I'm talking together with Israel.
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I mean, they've been plotting this.
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They've got,
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I think what is incredible is that the intelligence that both countries have
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and are able to knew exactly where this meeting was taking place and how many
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people were there.
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I mean, that they can get on the inside.
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How they do it, I don't know.
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And I'm not going to ask.
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But obviously, they have some very, very high level people there that are feeding
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the information.
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And I think that applies probably in the whole of the Middle East or certainly in
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Iran or amongst the enemies.
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So I think this was opportune.
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You do it now or you don't do it.
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You know, you've got one chance.
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And they took it.
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And, you know, I think what's also interesting is that there's no opposition
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coming from Iran.
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The airspace belongs to America, to the Israelis.
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They can do what they do.
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Well, they've done a few things and they've killed a few people, but I don't
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think that they've got the follow-up.
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I don't think you've got the massive follow-up that they've been talking about.
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You know, they'll meet America, you know, bullet for bullet, missile for missile,
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etc.
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I think they've got a leadership vacuum, first of all.
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I think the grandson of one of the very high-up mullahs
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is coming to the fore now.
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but I think it'll...
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I think it'll just disappear quite quickly.
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Whether the threat of terrorism worldwide does so, I'm not sure, because
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Iranian people who are loyal to the regime are in Paris, they are in London,
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they are in New York and everywhere already, and I don't think that Hegsif...
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One thing he did say today was that he wants to stop all that, and this war will
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do so.
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I'm not sure.
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I'm not sure that it will do it.
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You know what's interesting is that there's been no reaction from any of the
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so-called
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countries that are aligned to Iran.
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Well, Pakistan actually, I'll correct you.
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Oh yeah, I'm sure there were protests there.
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Pakistan has been protesting outside the U.S. Embassy.
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And I think they've declared three days of mourning for the death of the leader.
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But yeah, it hasn't been worldwide.
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No, it's not.
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You know, they're not going to send troops there or anything like that.
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Hezbollah has been...
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incredibly quiet and Hamas is broken.
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You know, there's been no opposition there.
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I don't know.
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You know, Lindsay, when you go through it, and again,
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I'm putting the benefit of listening to people and a lot of discussion,
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I think it comes down to one area that is going to decide this whole war, and that's
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the state of Hormuz.
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Hormuz, yeah.
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Because that's where, at the moment, it's blocked.
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you The Iranians can cause havoc there.
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In other words, they can cause an impasse for maybe one, two weeks or whatever it
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is.
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You know, I don't know how many weeks.
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And that could create havoc with, you know, world supplies of oil.
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And that could be one of the points, a sticking point for Trump.
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You know, he's got to make sure that he gets control of the straits so that world
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oil, I mean,
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deliveries can continue.
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And that's really what it's coming down to.
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Now, I'm in no position to give any kind of understanding of where it is or where
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they
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are or whether this is going to succeed or not.
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You know, I'm talking on the American side.
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Trump says four weeks, but he says these things without thinking about it.
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He always says, there's a great clip on YouTube, I think it is,
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of Trump every time he says it'll happen in a couple of weeks or it'll happen in
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two weeks.
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He used to use two weeks.
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Now, for the war, he's using four weeks.
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Hegseth got annoyed when someone asked him about that.
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And the chap says, well, I'm not saying this.
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The president, your boss, your commander in chief said it would be about four
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weeks.
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Who knows?
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And who knows what the fallout will be?
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But we do know what the market fallout is, David.
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And that is that bond yields have risen in South Africa by about 2 percent to 8.13
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percent for the 10 year.
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And the US tenure.
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having dipped below 4%, it's back above 4% again.
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And I think it's, of course, it's an inflationary thing.
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Oil prices up close to 10%.
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Lots of other energy sources, excuse me, including European gas.
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European gas has spiked 50% in two days.
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And that's because Qatar has cut off the one facility that supplies 20%
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of the world every single day.
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It just can't send it out anymore.
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been damaged or destroyed.
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For some technical reason, it's not doing it.
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50%, it's a big move for gas prices.
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And it's still cold over here, I can tell you.
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People are still using gas.
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Well, you have to insure supplies.
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I don't know whether that was perhaps the strategy of the Iranians,
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to cut off oil or to cut off or to make that area unsafe.
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And of course, therefore...
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not allow any kind of oil or gas exports to take place or shipments.
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I don't know whether that was the strategy.
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But whatever it is, I think that's what's going to decide everything.
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You know, it's going to be, let's watch what happens in the next two weeks.
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Watch that area carefully.
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How it unfolds, Lindsay, you can listen to 20 different channels here.
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You're going to get 20 different opinions.
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Nobody knows.
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No one's quite sure how this is going to play out.
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and certainly not in Iran itself, whether the people are going to rise up,
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who's going to take over, whether there will be a deal, whatever.
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But I think what they are doing is going for total destruction of, they call it
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decapitation,
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of Iran's ability to strike back.
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I mean, if there's a truck that can launch a missile, they're taking it out.
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That's just one by one.
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But there's a lot of debate here.
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I think what has come across is, look, you've heard our views, in my views,
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we've discussed them on Trump.
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The one thing is he's decisive, but on the other side, I think the Democrats don't
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know which way to turn.
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I think they're going in circles, you know, one foot nail to the ground and
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they're trying to run away and they keep going
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round and round and round.
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There's absolutely no decisive action there.
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It's just...
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Just a whole lot of nonsense, you know, coming out of them and sprouting,
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this is illegal, this shouldn't have been done, and you should have referred to us.
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But no one cares, you know what I mean?
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No one really cares.
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They might do well.
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There is a, of course, the, you know, the interims are coming soon.
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And, yeah, I think even if it was on the cards before, this might increase
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Trump's popularity.
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I don't know.
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But in terms of a party...
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I'm not sure that it will.
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I don't think...
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The midterms are called in the interim.
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Yeah, well, same thing.
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The American public, I don't think, wants to turn on and see
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American people being killed and it doesn't want the extra costs and it
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doesn't want gas prices.
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I mean, Trump's such an idiot.
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If he trumpets all the time, he says low gas prices.
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I was in Iowa the other day.
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It was $1.85 a gallon.
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Firstly, it wasn't.
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He was lying.
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The wholesale price of gas is $2.43 at the moment.
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And then you add on the transport costs and everything, it's probably about $2.75,
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$2.80.
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So it's pushing $3 a gallon.
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And that's the highest since August 2024, David.
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And he hasn't brought it down.
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He doesn't think, you see.
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He just says whatever pops into his head.
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You won't hear gas prices from him for a while, and you won't hear lower interest
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rates from him for a while either.
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He's the Fed.
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being ultra-conservative as it is, is going to look at this, look at oil prices,
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look at petrol prices and say,
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this is inflationary, we cannot cut rates in these times.
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That's why you've got this two- to three-week window.
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If you don't open it up, if you don't ensure the shipments of oil and gas,
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there'll be trouble, and there'll be trouble for he knows that.
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That's going to be the point that, when I say topples him, that causes him to come
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to the table.
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And if he does go and nothing comes out of this venture, then we're back to where we
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were,
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with a slightly, with a military, with Iran, perhaps a lot more weakened, but not
14:51
out the picture.
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So it's a big gamble.
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I think everybody, but I must say that, you know, the Australians and the British
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and everybody,
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they're sitting there saying nothing and doing nothing of consequence at all,
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just worried about anything they say that might hurt their voters.
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That's all they're concerned about.
15:13
Keir Starmer, you know.
15:14
In fact, you saw what happened with Trump.
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They wanted to use the British bases.
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He said no, and now they've said yes, yeah.
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Yes, I've said yes now, but it's too late.
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You know, it's done.
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It's gone.
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You know, they made alternative views.
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So I don't think he's endeared himself to Trump, whether he wants to or not.
15:32
But it does show a very spineless kind of outside of America.
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There's just no backbone at all.
15:40
They don't like Trump.
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If it was a Kennedy or something like that and there'd been some sort of, I don't
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know, just some sort of...
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information sharing.
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If he had phoned them up a month ago and said, listen, this is what we're thinking
15:56
of doing and this is the reasons, can we use your bases?
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And it would have been a nice round table.
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I'm sure that Germany, France and Britain and everybody else would have said so, but
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Trump's just gone ahead.
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He hasn't told them anything.
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He doesn't like Europe.
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He's like you.
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I like Europe.
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I just think that the only thing is the Europeans are a bit sluggish.
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I call it a historical theme park, which is lovely.
16:21
You can go get good food there and good luxury goods.
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Yeah, you see, this comes from a person that spends too much time in Australia and
16:31
too much time in America.
16:33
You should maybe spend a couple of months in Europe.
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And it's not just nice coffees and little alleyways.
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They can't even play football anymore.
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What are you talking about?
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They can't even play football.
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What are you talking about?
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Have you seen Italian?
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Wait until the World Cup goes ahead.
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Look at the Champions League.
16:48
Look at the Champions League.
16:49
Where are the European teams?
16:52
Barcelona, Real Madrid, excuse me.
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Yeah, well, there you are.
16:55
That's two.
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I haven't seen the whole list.
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I'll find it.
17:00
Anyway, David, you're baiting me now.
17:03
I know you are.
17:05
I saw your LinkedIn post, by the way,
17:07
and it said everyone's bleating on about tech stocks being overvalued.
17:12
Have a look at the PEs.
17:13
It's very good.
17:13
They're highest PE.
17:14
of all the tech stocks, according to you, is, what was it, a forward P.E.s, yeah?
17:19
It was Apple, wasn't it?
17:20
Wait, I'll get that.
17:21
Apple was the only American one.
17:23
Yeah, I get it because I commented on it.
17:24
Yeah, yeah, that was it.
17:26
Yeah, that was it.
17:27
I've got to go back.
17:28
You know what happened on Friday, and this is before this war took place,
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I was sitting here and I looked at NVIDIA's forward P.E.
17:36
Now, I use FactSet.
17:37
You know, I use FactSet, and I'm not going to question their calculations.
17:43
So I use, you know, whatever I use for NVIDIA, I use for all the other companies
17:49
as well.
17:51
And I looked at the one year forward, you know, not the historical one, which are
17:54
earnings that have gone past.
17:56
What lies ahead?
17:58
And I saw NVIDIA at like a 21 multiple, which is, that's pretty low.
18:00
I say for a company with the kind of results.
18:03
And as I went through it in greater detail, so I began to.
18:08
to, you know, compare with other companies.
18:10
And if you look at them, I didn't use Tesla because Tesla, I don't know, I don't
18:15
know, it's on a 200 PE.
18:17
So it's out of the park.
18:17
So you conveniently left that out, did you?
18:19
Well, you know, because it's not really a Mag 7 stock.
18:23
It's a tech stock still though, but anyway, I understand.
18:26
It is in a way.
18:27
I'm not, you know, we could have put that in, but it's, you know,
18:32
most of them are midway.
18:34
And when I looked at where the other, you know, where everything else was, I mean,
18:40
it's quite remarkable to see where the values are.
18:43
So the biggest was that, and Costco, which is a retailer, I love the business.
18:49
It's a very, very good retailer.
18:50
It's at 50 PE. Ryan Metall, which is the
18:54
European defense company at 61.
18:58
GE, Aerospace, Hermes, Walmart, ASML.
19:01
I'm looking at it now.
19:02
Rolls-Royce, Ferrari.
19:04
All of these are above Apple.
19:05
Apple comes in.
19:06
the first mag 7 stock at 31 what about is richmond in there david ah did i put
19:13
richmond i don't know i
19:15
just saw a couple of luxury stocks and i suddenly know the luxury stocks of our the
19:20
luxury stocks yeah here you are 28
19:22
p.m so that's above alphabet above amazon above microsoft meta and video but you
19:27
still you
19:27
still own you still own luxury stocks so despite that i do They're going to take a
19:34
bit of a, in this kind of environment,
19:36
they're never going to make it.
19:38
You know, they're going to take quite a bit of a beating.
19:40
I would have thought so, especially with Dubai Airport being closed,
19:41
because I think that is the place where most luxury goods are bought worldwide.
19:46
They never mind Fifth Avenue.
19:47
It's Dubai duty free.
19:49
They, through those areas, also through China, through Japan, through the Eastern
19:56
nations, through
19:58
Asian, sorry, Asian nations and so on.
19:59
It's quite a robust, but I think.
20:01
This is not the environment where people are going to go out and spend.
20:06
So I would imagine they'll come under a bit of pressure.
20:08
But I think, so all that has struck me, I'm saying, you know, the whole of last
20:15
year or the year before, everybody was saying,
20:17
oh, the valuation is much too high, much too high, you know, and then this is a
20:22
bubble, this is a bubble, you know,
20:24
these are much too high.
20:26
Now if you look at the, I looked at the valuations and that prompted me to say,
20:27
okay.
20:29
21.7, you know, on the latest one year forward, that's pretty cheap.
20:33
Yes, it is.
20:33
But also someone else that wants to forcefully put the other argument that
20:40
they are overblown,
20:42
they'll come up with some other ratio, some other indicator, some other semantic.
20:45
That's the point.
20:46
Exactly.
20:46
They'll bring in capex and everything.
20:48
They will find it.
20:49
If you want to find it statistically, you will find it.
20:52
That's my opinion.
20:54
I'm with you.
20:55
Dude, I really...
20:56
I'm not a great believer in PEs and all kinds of ratios like that.
21:01
It's exactly that.
21:03
But all I wanted to identify is everybody said, oh, the multiples are too high.
21:07
I said, okay, so what are you going to say now?
21:09
They're pretty cheap.
21:10
In fact, they're probably becoming a value stock because below it, you've got
21:17
Unilever and Nestle,
21:19
which you don't want to own.
21:21
You've got a few pharmaceutical companies and BHP, and then the banks.
21:23
The banks look pretty cheap.
21:25
Their multiples are...
21:28
About 15.
21:28
But I just found it, you know, I'm saying, okay, here you are.
21:32
Now what's your argument?
21:33
Lindsay, what I'm saying is that why I value or why
21:39
I'm happy that this sell-off is going to take place and we're going to get some
21:45
kind of event
21:47
that's going to reset the markets, I enjoy that because you could feel that things
21:52
were not right.
21:54
You know what I mean?
21:56
You could just feel in the market it was… It was struggling.
21:56
And as you say, people were looking for other excuses.
21:59
They were looking for excuses, or too much CapEx, or, you know, there's going to be a
22:05
threat from somewhere else,
22:07
and AI is not going to survive, and, you know, all these arguments.
22:10
So I think we need to kind of revisit now.
22:12
There needed to be something, you're quite right.
22:13
I'm sorry it's a war, but I can look back over the last two months of 2026, and you
22:20
and I speaking once,
22:22
sometimes twice a week.
22:24
Sometimes we weren't.
22:26
There was no theme, you know.
22:28
It was like us commentating on Chelsea Football Club.
22:30
They haven't got an identity.
22:32
The markets haven't had an identity for a while, have they?
22:34
They need a shakeout, I think.
22:36
A bit of a shakeout.
22:38
Not 20%, maybe 10% here and there.
22:40
And it started today, maybe, David.
22:42
Yeah, I think so.
22:44
It's just, it's a nice reset.
22:44
You know, we can pick up from them and say, OK, here's a little bit of a
22:48
sell-off.
22:48
All the weak holders are out.
22:50
Let's...
22:51
Let's look at the fundamentals again and try and understand the fundamentals.
22:55
This is a little different, though.
22:58
No one's quite sure what this means for the Middle East, you know, when this is
23:04
all over, when they stop dropping bombs.
23:06
How is it, you know, is it going to be a peaceful region or is it just going to be
23:11
delayed for a little bit?
23:13
Yeah, peace in the Middle East and the border peace, it's all such a lot of crap,
23:16
to be quite honest, David.
23:18
And I sent a tweet out.
23:20
It is really.
23:22
I sent out a tweet and I said, when?
23:24
Are the allies, the Trump allies,
23:26
so-called allies in the region going to get fed up with his crypto ventures,
23:28
his luxury golf courses and hotels and his wars?
23:31
Because essentially they might just go back to their roots and say, OK, yes,
23:36
we need them to buy our oil and we need these investments and we're invested in
23:42
their bond market hugely, etc.
23:44
But at some stage we have to recognize our fathers and our forefathers.
23:47
etc., and say that this is who we are.
23:49
We're not Americans, and they can't do this.
23:52
At some stage, one's going to break ranks.
23:55
I don't think it'll be Saudi Arabia, but somebody will, David.
23:58
That's my opinion.
24:00
I don't know enough about it.
24:02
I think that you are getting a very pro-West type of approach.
24:06
Certainly Saudi and other regions want to.
24:09
to attract tourists.
24:10
They want to be a business area.
24:13
They want World Cups.
24:14
They want tennis tournaments.
24:16
They want golf tournaments.
24:17
So they are leaning towards that.
24:20
I can't see that with Iran or Pakistan.
24:24
India, yes, they have cricket tournaments and that, but I'm not sure they're going
24:28
to host a World Cup.
24:30
So there is this move towards normalization, if you want to call it
24:35
that.
24:37
Within America itself, there's...
24:39
There's so much debate going on now.
24:41
And you know what's funny?
24:45
And I hope you appreciate this, but I was looking at Mandani, you know, Mandani,
24:51
the mayor of New York.
24:53
Yeah, who came out, you know, obviously critical of Trump and came out with a
24:59
really,
25:00
a very silly statement.
25:01
You know, we're going to protect all the Iranians.
25:03
Are you safe?
25:04
But you're saying, well, what?
25:05
Which Iranians?
25:07
Those that want war or those that want change?
25:10
You know, they're two different factions because there was some people were
25:16
protesting here and others were celebrating.
25:18
So you're not quite sure.
25:20
But, you know, he's very anti-Trump.
25:22
But I looked at him and I'm saying, this is America.
25:23
You know,
25:24
if you go to New York and you're typical Americans and you go into any pub
25:30
here, they're watching all the screens.
25:33
I got 10 screens around there and they're all focused on different baseball games or
25:39
uh
25:41
what's coming now the basketball or whatever is that's the the football
25:46
season's over i'm not sure what comes in now is it yeah i think
25:48
it's whatever
25:49
it is uh so there's so many different sports they're celebrating ice hockey you
25:56
know i think ice hockey is also
25:58
um coming to an end as well and i look at him i'm saying you know he's not going to
26:03
be on the 4th of july
26:05
you can't you're not going to see him eating hot dogs.
26:05
First of all, it's not halal.
26:07
But, you know, you're not going to see him eating hot dogs or you're not going to see
26:13
him kind of, you know, going to the
26:15
Yankees and throwing a baseball, you know, to start the season.
26:17
It's just, he's so, what's the word?
26:21
He's just so out of place in a New York City.
26:24
I know he was elected there and he's got his multitude of supporters, etc.
26:29
But it's just so un-American, you know, it's just like, okay.
26:33
It's like Ted Lesser, you know what I mean?
26:35
He's like, just… When is that coming back?
26:39
I'm sure there's another season of that coming.
26:41
I don't know.
26:42
I really hope so.
26:42
But you know what I'm trying to say to me?
26:45
It's just whenever I see him speaking and I say, I'm not in America, where the hell
26:52
am I?
26:52
You know, where am I?
26:53
He's a novelty.
26:54
He's like the Green Party candidate that won in the UK, that lovely woman, Hannah
26:58
Spencer.
27:00
the first time I saw her.
27:01
Except he's running the place.
27:03
Yeah, I know.
27:05
The greens are a breath of fresh air.
27:08
You've got starmer.
27:10
Okay.
27:12
Merz in Germany I think is quite good.
27:15
But you've got all these people in their 70s, David.
27:18
Let's get some young people in there.
27:20
Like the green.
27:21
The fact that she's pretty as well does help.
27:27
I don't know what to...
27:28
As I said to a mutual friend of ours, I said, I don't care what her politics is.
27:32
She's got lovely hair.
27:35
I want her in number 10 immediately.
27:40
How did we get to this, David?
27:41
We were talking about lack of identity, the markets.
27:45
And just briefly on Iran, I don't know how many Iranian people you know.
27:49
I know two.
27:50
One is Iraj Abedian.
27:51
You know Iraj, yeah.
27:53
I haven't heard from him for a while.
27:54
Is he still commentating?
27:55
Yes, he's worth talking to, if you can.
28:00
We messaged each other over the weekend.
28:02
I wished him well and everything because he's a member of the Baha'i faith, which
28:08
is second to Islam.
28:10
It's sort of Islamic, but it's not highly regarded by the regime.
28:14
And in fact, they're persecuted.
28:15
I think that's why he fled, actually.
28:17
I think his understanding of the politics is very important and where they were,
28:22
where the Persians were and where they are now.
28:26
And it's...
28:28
You've got this complete opposition.
28:32
I don't know how many.
28:34
Also, over the weekend, I was thinking of it, Lindsay.
28:37
Now, half my life I spent under apartheid.
28:40
Yes.
28:41
It fell in 1990, so I was 42 years old.
28:48
In the early part of your life,
28:52
I wasn't politically active at the age of 10 or 11 or 12.
28:56
I remember at the age of 12 or 13 was It was Schaufel, you know, which caused, you
29:02
could feel the tension.
29:04
But as I became more politically active.
29:05
What year was that?
29:07
Schaufel was 61, I think, 61.
29:10
And then when were the Soweto rights?
29:11
That was 76, wasn't it?
29:12
Oh, 76, yeah.
29:13
So that's the 50th anniversary this year.
29:16
Yeah, yeah.
29:17
I hope they're doing something big about it.
29:19
I would imagine they would be.
29:21
They will be on June the 16th.
29:24
But my point is that throughout those years under apartheid, having I remember
29:30
celebrating when
29:32
Verwoerd was taken out in parliament and murdered.
29:35
And, you know, you kind of celebrate it because he was just such an obnoxious man.
29:40
The policies were repulsive.
29:43
And as a kid then, you know, or as a young person, you kind of celebrated that this
29:49
man had been taken out.
29:51
As crude as it sounds.
29:51
Well, in your community with your history of activism.
29:58
And the man who was, when my parents-in-law were arrested, was Foster,
30:04
you know, I mean,
30:06
who was a wicked man, absolutely wicked man.
30:07
And the whole regime was wicked.
30:09
And I remember just thinking, you know, I wish something would happen.
30:12
You wish like, almost like the Americans coming and bombing the place and just
30:19
getting rid of them so we could have a change.
30:21
And it took a long time and it took a completely different characteristic, you
30:24
know,
30:24
to see the changes that finally took place.
30:26
place in in 94 but i remember you know what it was like living under a government
30:33
that you tested
30:35
and and having to understand their policies you know yes it was easy to go
30:41
somewhere but where
30:43
could you go if it's an 18 year old or 19 year old you know with with no money stuck
30:48
in a country where you couldn't get anything
30:50
out and
30:52
uh i just i i i understand you know um how perhaps people who
30:56
persecuted like that might feel.
30:59
So I'm just hoping there is something.
31:01
I'm just hoping that kind of hope for those people who want it.
31:05
But we don't know the split.
31:06
We don't know what the split.
31:08
And we all thought, when was this?
31:10
This was back in the 90s, I think.
31:12
We all thought that when Iraq invaded Kuwait,
31:17
there's going to be a massive conflagration.
31:20
And, of course, it lasted 24 hours.
31:23
There was nothing there.
31:24
Americans uh uh The Kuwaitis backed by the Americans blasted away
31:30
Saddam Hussein's forces.
31:31
And that was that.
31:32
This is not quite the same.
31:34
Iran bigger and more organized and also has more proxies as well.
31:38
I mean, you've got Hezbollah for just one example, Hezbollah.
31:43
And they're getting involved now.
31:45
So it could rumble on for a bit, David.
31:48
I've no doubt it will.
31:50
I know it's not going to go away because I think there's a big land with lots of
31:55
people.
31:56
So it's not a very small piece of ground that you could cover with one flight.
32:02
So I think there's a lot taking place.
32:04
I haven't got up to date today.
32:06
I haven't seen any further news other than the bombings continue.
32:10
They do.
32:11
And Kuwait shot down three American planes.
32:14
So that was how well-coordinated Hegseth was.
32:16
He didn't tell them about the war.
32:18
They woke up and shot down these.
32:20
These fast-moving aircraft.
32:22
All the pilots pressed the eject button.
32:23
They did, thank goodness, yes.
32:25
A few hundred million down the drain.
32:32
David, what's the market going to do?
32:33
The all-share of the JSC today down, it hasn't closed yet,
32:37
but it's down around about 1.2%.
32:41
And we've got, what have we got?
32:43
I think the oil price is weighing down.
32:45
The sassle story is massive.
32:47
Sorry, yes, go on.
32:48
the oil price is going to be a big drag.
32:52
I think that's the source of the weakness, just concerns about it.
32:55
There was a little bit of a bounce now.
32:57
But even gold shares, I think gold shares are starting to look exhausted.
33:02
You know, the gold price can go to 54, 55.
33:05
I just think there's limits to which you can stretch gold shares.
33:10
And, you know, people who want it, I think, have got it.
33:12
And it's, I don't know, you know, there's a little, there is a reaction here.
33:18
amongst that.
33:19
You've seen Exaro and Cecil and Harmony and all those shares up a couple of
33:24
shares.
33:24
But I think there's a lot more nervousness in the market than positivity
33:32
over these higher prices of platinum and so on.
33:35
In fact, I'm just looking at the resource index on balance as flat.
33:41
So, yeah, there's a bit of a sell-off, which you would have expected.
33:44
I think we're going to see the same thing when America opens.
33:48
There's this, it's not as severe as I thought it would be.
33:52
I must say, I'm looking at the European markets.
33:54
Yes, some of the luxury stocks are 4% to 5% down.
33:57
I can understand that.
33:59
They were in weak territory before.
34:01
All of this happened already because of the poor growth
34:08
scenario.
34:09
But shares like ASML are down 1%.
34:12
I'm trying to look at those.
34:15
LVMH is down 4%.
34:18
Nothing dramatic.
34:19
Richemont's a 6% loser.
34:20
We've already mentioned that one.
34:22
Yeah, that's one of the biggest ones.
34:23
I think people have learned.
34:24
I think that is the biggest one.
34:25
I think people have learned, though.
34:26
People have learned.
34:27
If you get a long map going back 50 years or something like that and you have these
34:34
little skirmishes,
34:36
I'm not putting down these wars and being disrespectful to those who lost their
34:40
lives in it,
34:40
but if you look at a skirmish on a map, Iraq or whatever it is, Venezuela,
34:47
And markets fall a little bit, but they don't fall as much as they used to.
34:50
People know that it's just a moment.
34:52
In fact, it's a buying opportunity and they're waiting there in the wings to dash
34:59
out and buy some stock in Richmond, which is down 6%
35:01
today.
35:03
David, the one that's really caught my eye, and I was talking about it, I've
35:07
spoken about it a number of times with Skullclaw, I said,
35:09
why is this thing not doing anything?
35:10
Why, when volumes on the JSC are up, is it not going up?
35:13
The JSC Limited.
35:15
It's gone from...
35:18
In less than a year, it's gone from 106 rand a share to 175 rand a share,
35:24
a 65% increase.
35:26
That's pretty good, isn't it?
35:28
That is.
35:30
I think the reason is that mainly because of the volumes.
35:34
Volumes, yeah.
35:35
That's what I said to Scott Ganges.
35:37
Yeah, it is volumes.
35:38
And I think that, look, they've got quite a few channels of income.
35:43
Trading is probably the least.
35:45
Every time you touch a button and look for a share price, they get money.
35:57
So I think it's
36:04
money in the bank.
36:07
So I think that's one of the reasons they are there.
36:11
I'm just trying to see where today.
36:12
So.
36:13
I watch those values traded every day.
36:15
They've been above $30 billion for quite a while, haven't they?
36:21
They have $25, $30, which is higher relative to where we were last year.
36:26
Last year we were around about always $20, $18, $17, $19, nothing happening.
36:33
So the gold market, and Lindsay, it's always the same shares.
36:38
If I go in there today and have a look at where the value traded is.
36:44
Once more, it's Angler Gold, Goldfield, Sassell, Veltier, excuse me,
36:52
Process, Naspers, Capitec.
36:54
So it's always made up of the same stocks.
36:58
And gold shares have been very, very volatile.
37:01
I'm not sure who's buying them, whether they've been traded or whether they're
37:06
genuinely...
37:08
I think they're genuine buyers because if you look at the total market
37:12
capitalization of gold stocks,
37:14
not just on the JSC Securities Exchange, but worldwide, it's tiny, David, compared
37:19
to your sector, the tech sector.
37:21
So people have to come to South Africa to buy.
37:22
I think that's one of the reasons.
37:23
Well, of course, it's one of the reasons the round is so strong or has been strong
37:27
below 16.
37:29
It's a bit weaker today.
37:31
And that's obviously why.
37:33
It's obvious why that is.
37:35
But I think that, yeah, I think this is genuine investing, David.
37:37
Because they're making money.
37:40
They're making money hand over fist here.
37:41
Yeah.
37:42
If you go to the Europeans and you go to the traditional gold buyers, there is a
37:48
very customary market.
37:50
But the point I want to make, and which is just to reinforce what you're saying,
37:52
if you look at NVIDIA's market cap at $4.5 trillion, that's bigger than the UK
37:58
market.
38:00
Now, if you look at the UK market, it's got Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglos, Billiton.
38:06
All of those companies are listed.
38:08
So, I mean,
38:09
you've got this one semiconductor business that is bigger than the entire UK market,
38:15
which embraces or embodies all those massive mining businesses.
38:20
And probably more than every single gold stock in the world as well.
38:23
I'd love you to do that.
38:24
I know you're not going to.
38:26
I'll ask someone else to do that.
38:27
But it's a tiny market.
38:30
It's very small.
38:32
Very, very small.
38:33
And I think that's why the marginal buyers, when they do come in, can make a
38:37
difference.
38:38
David, I'm not going to keep you any longer because you're in New York and you
38:43
want to go out for a bagel or whatever.
38:45
Where do you go shopping, by the way?
38:47
That's what I was going to ask you.
38:49
Do you go to that green place?
38:51
Didn't someone take over a sort of bar?
38:53
Yeah, health food.
38:55
Do you go there?
38:57
Yeah.
38:59
Well, we've got one literally a block away.
39:01
Nice.
39:03
We can learn a lot.
39:05
You can't believe how many people are in that store.
39:07
But what is remarkable is how quickly...
39:09
you get your basket, you know, you can, first of all, there's, today there's
39:11
self-checkout.
39:13
So wherever you go today, it's self-checkout.
39:15
I don't think we could ever have that in South Africa.
39:17
But I mean, a lot of people, a lot of people do self-checkout,
39:19
but you've also got the tools that work incredibly fast.
39:22
And it's remarkably positive.
39:27
But there's some beautiful, There's Morton Williams here.
39:30
There's some...
39:32
Trader Joe's.
39:33
So they're incredible food stores, I mean grocery stores here, grocery chains.
39:37
But we go to Whole Foods.
39:39
And Wilworth's food far better than this.
39:43
They don't match Wilworth's when it comes to fruit.
39:46
And yeah, no comparison.
39:51
So the fruit we get in South Africa is superb.
39:53
Absolutely superb relative to what you can get here.
39:56
So that's one thing I'll miss.
39:59
Those self-service checkouts, David, I have to admit something because no one's
40:02
listening.
40:04
I always steal chilies when I go through the self-service checkout at this point.
40:08
Because, you know,
40:08
you put three red chilies in a little bag and then it's
40:15
17 cents or something like that.
40:18
First of all, the bag is bad environmentally and it costs more than the
40:22
chilies.
40:22
So I just take the chilies and I put them in my hand, I cut my hand.
40:28
And about two minutes later, just in case someone watching me picked them up, two
40:33
minutes later, I put them in my pocket.
40:35
That's all I need.
40:37
I know it's stealing, but it's only chilies.
40:39
Please don't judge me.
40:41
No, no.
40:43
That's what I have the problem with self-checkout because I never know how to,
40:47
if you take a sweet.
40:49
Wheatmelon or something like that.
40:51
I never know how to find it.
40:53
So for me, it's easier to go to the… The pictures never usually match the fruit
40:53
itself, do they?
40:55
No, that's exactly it.
40:57
You know, you try to find it, and by the time you find it, you can say, this is
40:59
much easier.
41:01
If I went to a checkout… That's where Linda comes in.
41:03
David, very quickly, football, Arsenal again.
41:06
Not as convincing as I thought they should have been, but they're still grinding out
41:10
wins.
41:10
City were hugely impressive in the hostile environment of Ellen Road, Leeds United,
41:16
and that was a brilliant win.
41:18
And it's going to go to the wire, don't you think?
41:20
It will.
41:21
Oh, no doubt.
41:22
And they're getting stronger.
41:23
I think City's purchases, El Nouri, Teschi.
41:30
Semenya.
41:31
Semenya, super.
41:33
You know, they've just fitted in and they've changed the whole side.
41:37
You know, I think they missed Haaland yesterday, on Saturday.
41:41
I think… They played differently.
41:45
Yeah.
41:46
You know what's interesting is you've got Foden nowhere.
41:51
He's just not around.
41:53
I don't know whether he's going to last the season or he's going to say, okay, let
41:59
me go somewhere, you know, like Palmer did to Chelsea.
42:01
Yes.
42:03
But, you know, he's struggling to get a game.
42:05
He comes in as a substitute when they're 2-0 up or something.
42:08
Yeah, that's true.
42:09
But anyway, it's going to be very, very exciting.
42:11
And we're very excited.
42:13
And I sent out a tweet.
42:14
I said, I sent a letter, actually, to the Guardian newspaper.
42:17
I've got too much time on my hands, as you can hear.
42:20
I sent a letter to the Guardian.
42:22
It was just a one-letter thing.
42:24
The tantalising prospect of Spurs versus Lincoln City is edging ever closer,
42:28
because Lincoln City are second in League One, which is the third division.
42:33
They go up, Spurs come down.
42:36
I'm talking about Spurs.
42:37
They were terrible.
42:38
Aren't they awful?
42:38
You know what?
42:40
This is terrible.
42:42
I feel for them because...
42:44
You want that rivalry and you want big clubs to survive.
42:47
You know, that they playing this kind of football is just, it's, you know,
42:51
really it's a reflection on the club and the management and this is not fun
42:57
anymore, you know, for the fans.
42:59
Huge ground, incredibly loyal support and just don't turn up for games.
43:04
Yeah, it's actually disrespectful to the fans and to the people that have so much
43:10
history with...
43:12
With Spurs.
43:14
And Daniel Levy has got a lot to answer for.
43:15
I think he got out just at the right time, quite honestly, don't you?
43:18
Well, I think whether he got out or was pushed out or whatever it is, I don't
43:22
know.
43:23
But to find them lingering down, it's West Ham you can understand.
43:27
You know, they're a club that does go up.
43:30
They're not a wealthy club.
43:31
They've got a big following, but I don't think it's a rich support.
43:35
Anyway.
43:36
But touch and grow, you know.
43:40
it's it's it's touch and go my my moment of the weekend david i want you to watch
43:47
it if you haven't watched it uh go to youtube
43:49
and put in um newcastle everton yes it was it was three two at the time to everton
43:54
the last
43:56
couple of minutes and the ball came out to tonali 30 yards out of
43:58
newcastle on the volley he he watched the slow motion of it he got his head down
44:05
he's got his knee over the ball he volleyed that thing
44:07
i couldn't even see it and in real time how you What's his name?
44:10
Pickford.
44:12
Save that.
44:12
I have no idea.
44:13
Please have a look at that right at the end of Newcastle, Everton.
44:17
David, after everything else.
44:20
David, thank you very much for your time as always.
44:22
David Shapiro is from Sassfin Securities in Manhattan and that was Shapiro World.
44:27
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44:34
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44:36
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44:43
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44:50
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44:52
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