Latest / Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The Jobs Report Was Just an Excuse for Stocks to Rip Higher
Stocks jumped, especially tech, on a weak jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 jobs, which markets read as the Fed being less likely to raise. My take is this is background noise and mostly an excuse for a V-shaped bounce to continue after the Nasdaq's 10% correction, with unemployment actually ticking down to 4.1%. Kalshi traders now price a 62% chance of no change versus 34% for a 25 bps hike.
I think the Fed debate is overblown, since a quarter point does little, and the real mystery is how Kevin Warsh plans to shrink a balance sheet with $40 trillion in debt and sensitive overnight rates…
The skinny
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