Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Football is Back | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason & NCAA Football | 8/29/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Football is Back | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason & NCAA Football | 8/29/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: On, let me pull you out. That fella fights hard,
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: but he don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Saturday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 5: August 29th. I give out my.
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: First college football play of the season for later today.
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: You guys can go check out my college football week
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: zero show that I did last night. It's the night show,
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: it's the beginning, so that should be up on the channel.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: It's on the audio, go check that out. We went
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: one and two on the show yesterday.
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: Obviously, I'm not happy about that. The Mets had the
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: lead after the first five. It was 1-0, but if
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: we took them in the first.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: Five, we would have won.
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: I opted for full game on that. I thought they
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: had a slight bullpen edge, and they gave up three
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: runs in the sixth inning, and that was it.
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: They couldn't score again. They lost 3-1. I'm pissed. They
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: won the hit battle in the game. Mets had more hits.
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: Still lost. What can you do, man? Pittsburgh.
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: Jared Jones, I mean, he didn't go that deep into
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: the outing. He was okay in the game, but he
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: gave up some runs. Fielding wasn't good on the Pittsburgh side.
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: Their offense, though, they just got totally shut down by
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: Quinn Matthews.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: He was dealing.
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I had a bad read on that. Matthews might
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: be better than I thought. That was it in that one,
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: and then we did win. Easy win with the WNBA
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: game with Portland. wire to wire outright win with Portland
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: so um WNBA man sometimes these underdogs even the big
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: underdogs if you handicap it right a lot of times
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: they just come out and win so hopefully people got
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: that one right hopefully they put a little bit on
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: the money line I would have recommended like three percent
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: of that bet probably on the money line we'll move
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: on to today man we're gonna have three plays today
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: I gave out a college football play on my college
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: football show I won't reiterate I mean I'll I'll reiterate
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: that play at the end of this show here, but
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: I won't go through the whole college football.
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: Slate again because there's a lot more to get through here.
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: We got baseball.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: We have two doubleheaders here today, so I'm going to
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: try to get through all that. I'm going to do
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: it in chronological order, except I'm going to talk about
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: the doubleheaders in one swoop and the pitching. We don't
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: know who the pitchers are in three of the four
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: games for one of the teams, so that's what we
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: got going on there. Red Sox-Yankees is the first game.
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: This is a doubleheader. They're playing a make-up game from.
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: Earlier this year.
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: The first game's on MLB Network.
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: We do know who's pitching in the first game. Red
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: Sox lost 1-0 yesterday.
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: And if you have a game, Sandoval, Schlittler, and you're
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: that close in the game, like I said last night,
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: you got to just.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: Steal it, dude. The Red Sox should have just stolen
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: that game.
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: Because on the surface, there was no way the Red
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: Sox were going to have a chance to win that game.
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: They absolutely had a chance to win that game. And
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: the offense just couldn't do anything. And they did get,
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: Raffaello got thrown out on the bases when he tried
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: to tag up questionably when I believe the coaches were
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: holding him. They're an aggressive base-running team. He's fast, but
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: that definitely kind of cost them in the game. I'm
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: not happy about it. First game, and I was right
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: about the under in that game. The other thing I'm
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: not happy about is I was right about a lot
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: of these games yesterday, and just the ones that were
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: on my card were the ones I didn't get right.
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: I'm pissed because, again, I leaned under in Red Sox games.
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: I was never going to do that, though. with Sandoval,
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: but whatever. I do lean under in this first game
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: as well. I don't really want to put it on
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: my card, but Jake Bennett is going to be pitching.
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: For the Red Sox here.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: First, I guess we've got to go through all the
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: other crap. Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday. It
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: was very light usage.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: From them, though.
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: Yankees also used three, but they did have to use Bednar,
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: who I believe is their closer, so a little bit
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: more usage on that side. This is a battle between
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: the top two bullpens in baseball, Red Sox, Yankees, number
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: one and number two. Red Sox are number nine offensively.
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: They've been good offensively recently. Yankees have been somewhat struggling
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: in that department for the most part recently. They're 15th
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: tied with the Royals. Royals have moved up with some
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: good hitting recently. Jake Bennett is pitching for the Red Sox. 3.49 ERA, 1.07 whip.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: This is in game one.
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: He's basically the same home and away. Splits aren't really significant.
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: His last start was pretty good against San Francisco. Went
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: deeper into that one. He's not really throwing that many pitches.
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: They're really kind of limiting him to somewhere around 90
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: pitches here because they don't want to overwork him. He's
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: not really a strikeout guy, but he is starting to
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: kind of regain his command a little bit after he
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: had a couple of shaky outings here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: He's not overworked on the season. He's got a low
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: innings pitch on the season. He hasn't really pitched that much.
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: Pretty low hit rate. Doesn't really strike a lot of
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: guys out.
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is low as well though so a
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is good uh he just doesn't put
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: a lot of guys on base but he doesn't really
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: strike a ton of guys out either so strikeout rate
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: isn't really that great against the yankees they've seen a
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: little bit of them they have 14 at bats against
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: some six hitters to face them and they have no
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: extra base hits and a 143 average 393 ops one
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: to two strikeout walk ratio What I will say, though,
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: is that Bennett, the first time he faced them, he
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: pitched pretty well. He's made one start against them, I think,
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: but he was unfamiliar to them at the time, and
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: now the Yankees will be a little bit more familiar
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: with them. So that might give the Yankees a little
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: bit of a– at least put the Yankees at less
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: of a disadvantage this time.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: We will see, though.
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: I mean, Bennett might still come out and pitch pretty
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: well here. Carlos Rodon is pitching for the Yankees. He's
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: got a 3.15 ERA, 1.21 whip, so he does put
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: more guys on base. He's good at home, though, 2.7
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: home ERA. His opponent batting average is really good. Like,
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: his problem is the wildness.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: Now, he was injured. He didn't pitch throughout the month
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: of July, basically. He came back.
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: I gave out a winner on the show with him
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: in the first game that he pitched. He didn't really
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: go deep, though, but it seems like they're kind of
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: ramping his pitch count back up. But he only threw
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: four innings in each of his starts as he came back.
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: He was very mediocre in those two starts, though. Didn't
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: allow a lot of runs, but he did put kind
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: of too many guys on base. Again, he's having some
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: walk issues here, but the Yankees did win both those starts.
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, but his walk rate's
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: way too high this season. His strikeout rate is decent.
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine is still a really bad number, though.
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: That's just how bad his walk number is here. Or
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio, I mean.
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Oh, my God.
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: I never say the right thing. His strikeout per nine
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: is good, but he walks too many guys. He is
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: good against the Red Sox, though. They have 79 at-bats
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: against him, so it's a big sample, 190 average.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: But the walk's kind of an issue.
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: Here as well, 22-8 strikeout walk ratio, so 606 OPS there.
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: I'm going to lean under in this game one here.
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to do it, but both pitchers
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: seem to match up okay. I think they're both decent pitchers.
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: The Yankees' offense has been struggling recently. It seems like
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: this series could have more unders come in than overs.
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in on the over in this one, though.
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: 56% of tickets on the under, 71% of the cash
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: on the over, so the money is on.
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: The over here.
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: The total's at eight, but you also got good bullpens here,
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: and you know how rested they are coming into this game,
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: at least. You don't really know how rested they're going
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: to be in game two, but yeah, I think the
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: under makes the most sense in this first game here.
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: Not going to make the cut for me. Bennett does
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: worry me a little bit, and Radone's walk numbers are
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: worrisome as well, and we don't know how deep he's
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: going to go. The Yankees bullpen can definitely cover like
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: they have in his last two games. They can cover
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: the rest of the innings, cover for him, I mean.
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: We don't have any spreads to cover here. Game two
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: in this matchup, the Red Sox have not announced a starter.
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: So that's not good as the Yankees are bringing back
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: Max Freed. So this sets up a lot better for
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: the Yankees in game two because Freed has been injured
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: so they can just bring him right back in and
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: they don't have to worry about having to push anybody
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: back or anything. So that kind of pisses me off
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: because the Red Sox are probably going to have to
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: bring somebody up. You get to call players up, I think,
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: like maybe two players or something. I forget what the
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: rule is for a doubleheader.
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: I think you're allowed to call guys up from the minors.
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: Speaking of which, the Red Sox still are not bringing
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: back Roman Anthony and Trevor Story.
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: They're still apparently playing in AAA right now.
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: So the Red Sox, you'd like those guys to come
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: back up, bolster the lineup, especially for a doubleheader here
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: in an important series. But I guess that's not going
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: to happen. Red Sox might wind up. using that Eduardo
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: Ramirez guy.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: Is that his name?
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: I forget what his name is. He's been up and
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: made spot starts for the Red Sox this year. He's
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: been mediocre. So if it's him against Freed, I don't
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: like that for the Red Sox. I mean, I don't
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: know what the Red Sox are really going to do here.
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: I think the Yankees are probably the right side in
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: game two. Freed has a 2.81 ERA, one whip. He
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: is slightly worse at home, 3.21 home ERA.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: He's very hard to hit, though, and he hasn't missed
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: that much time.
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: He's been out for the very minimum on the 15-day DL.
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: He's pretty much missed exactly two weeks, and he's coming back.
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: I think the first day he can come back is today,
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure, something like that. So he is coming
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: back here. He was pitching pretty well in his recent
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: starts before going down. He hasn't thrown that many pitches.
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: This is like a Dodgers situation, you know, where you
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: have your best pitcher and just be injured, maybe injured
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: the whole season just so you can bring him back
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: for the playoffs, and he's fresh, and he hasn't thrown
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: that many innings.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate. His walk rate's been
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: a little bit concerning.
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is just okay, so Freed doesn't really
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: have that good of a strikeout walk ratio.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: It's just okay.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine, is actually not too bad. But yeah,
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: the walks are a little bit of an issue for him,
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: but he's still good against the Red Sox, and he's
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: still good in general, and he's very difficult to hit.
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: Red Sox in 79 at-bats have not done anything against him.
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: They have a 165 average, 442 OPS, 22-5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: So in this Game 2 here, let me just bring
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: up MLB only so this thing stops refreshing on me.
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: Game 2... I'd be leaning to the Yankees. They're about
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: minus 120-something on the price here, which is pretty cheap
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: for freed against an unknown pitcher. 63% of tickets, 86%
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the Yankees. Although the unknown pitcher
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: could wind up having unfamiliarity for the Red Sox, but
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: it's not going to be good enough. I think the
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: Red Sox are fucked. I don't think there's any way
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: they're winning this game in Game 2.
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: Don't really have any read on the total. There's no
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: market read on it yet. The total looks low, though.
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: It looks like it's 7.5 out there right now. It's
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: some of the books that have the number up. Probably
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: because of the freed factor there, but whatever. That would
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: be my lean in that game. And the money is
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: agreeing with the Yankees, as I said.
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: 63% of tickets, 86% of the cash on them.
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: Dodgers and Tigers. Scooble pitched well yesterday, and the Dodgers
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: were able to win in the Scooble revenge spot or
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: whatever you want to call it.
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: It was a 2-1 Dodger win.
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: Tigers should be the more desperate team, although at this
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: point maybe the Tigers just realize they're probably not making
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: the playoffs. I don't know, although if they think they
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: have any chance at the playoffs, they should be in
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: desperation mode here. Detroit used four relief pitchers yesterday. I
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: think they do have the better bullpen. The Dodgers used
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: four as well. The Dodgers are ranked 11th in bullpen
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: by whip. Detroit is 15th, but Detroit's ERA is better,
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: and the whip isn't that much worse. So I think
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: Detroit actually is the slightly better bullpen here. Dodgers are
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: the better offense. They're number two right now. And they've
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: been back and forth with the Cubs recently. And the
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: Nationals are kind of still hanging around in those numbers there,
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: although they've fallen off a little bit. Detroit is 19th now,
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: tied with Arizona. Detroit's hitting has really gone kind of
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: down the tubes recently. That's probably not good because they
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: have to face Blake Snell here. You want to talk
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: about a guy who's been injured and is now really fresh? Yeah,
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: how about Snell, who's only made like four.
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: Starts on the season? He's got a 2.570 or a 1.05 whip.
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: Since he came back in August, he's made three starts,
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: and he's been pretty good in all of them.
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers have won all of them. Snell, high strikeout rate,
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: low hit rate, somewhat high walk rate.
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's just exactly what he does. He's not
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: going to change at this point. His strikeout walk ratio
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: is fine, although he does still walk too many guys,
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: but he strikes out a ton of guys as well.
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: That's just what he does.
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: Detroit is 28 at-bats against them, only four hitters to
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: face them. They really have not done a ton of
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: damage here. 143 average, 619 OPS, although an 8-8 strikeout
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: walk ratio, but seven of the eight walks are Torres
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: and Torkelson. So Snell might just kind of pitch around
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: those guys. And Detroit is going with Keeter Montero here,
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: who's been decent for them. He's a guy that was
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: in the bullpen for a bit. He was a long
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: relief man. He's been a starter before. He's pretty much
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: entrenched in their starting rotation now after they made all
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: those trades. He's been all right. 3.3 ERA, one whip
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: is really good. He's a little bit worse at home, 3.49
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: home ERA. His opponent batting average is a little bit
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: worse at home. He's not really striking anybody out recently.
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: He's pitching okay recently with two shutouts in his last
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: four starts, but his strikeout rate is really low recently,
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: although he's not allowing hits. He's not really putting a
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: lot of guys on base, but the strikeouts– They're going
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: to concern the advanced analytics guys at least. He's got
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: a low hit rate, though, pretty low walk rate on
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: the season as well, but the strikeout rate quite low.
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: So he doesn't really go out there and fool guys.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: He pitches to contact. Does still have a pretty good
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio, though. Strikeout per nine is not good,
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: like I said. So that's just not what he does.
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: He doesn't strike guys out. Dodgers have five guys who
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: have faced him, 12 at bats, 333 average, 1179 OPS.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: So his numbers, small sample, but not good. against the Dodgers.
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: So I just, I don't really see any angle really
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: for playing Detroit here. Other than, you know, when I
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: first looked at this, I was thinking maybe this does
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: kind of look like an under. And if it is
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: a low scoring game, of course, there is the chance
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: that the underdog hangs around. You know, the low scoring
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: game certainly would help the underdog here. The money seems
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: like it's slightly tilted towards the over though. Number, it's seven,
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: so it is really low, but the odds makers are
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: kind of telling you they think it is going to
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: be a low-scoring game. Dodgers are very public, 91% of tickets,
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: 94% of the cash on them. They did drop from
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: minus 180 down to the minus 170 range here, but
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: based on what we just saw with the matchup numbers,
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: I don't want Detroit here, man. I don't think they
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: have the matchup edge here, or at least it's not.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: I don't even think the matchup is close enough to
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: really want to do it. Although, you know, you're paying
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: too much of a price for the Dodgers. If you
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: do want to do it that way, you could do
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: something like Dodgers team total over.
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: If you think that the money on the over is kind.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: Of accurate here, just play, um, Dodgers to score off
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: of a Detroit, but I don't know, man, cause I actually,
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: to me, I actually kind of lean more towards an
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: under here though. Uh, but I do still think the
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: Dodgers come out with the win. I wouldn't really want
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: to do it though. Make like a minus one run
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: line with the Dodgers or whatever. I don't think it
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: Totally makes sense here. I've got to keep checking my
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: phone here to see if I wind up getting any
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: calls from Clint or whatever, from Liberty Lockpot, who is
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: going to be here later today at some point, although
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: he could do his own thing and then just show
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: up here.
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, he might wind up doing that. I don't know.
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: As he finishes the cruise that he's been on. All right.
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins here. The Twins lost
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: yesterday in the return home spot, and you know I
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: always talk about how bad a spot like that is.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: When a team returns home, it's a distraction.
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: You've got to get back to home life, even though
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: Minnesota seems to think they might still be able to
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: make the playoffs, although I'm pretty sure that's not happening.
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: But they still have motivation here anyway because they're playing
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: against the White Sox, who are a divisional foe and
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: winning the.
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: Division right now.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: White Sox might have a little less motivation here just
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: because they're sitting atop the division, have a few-game lead here.
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: And the starting pitching looks like it does favor Minnesota
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: in this one, although I would not want to deal
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: with their bullpen. White Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: Minnesota also used three, but I do not like Minnesota's bullpen.
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: They're 28th out of 30, not a good bullpen.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: White Sox are an okay bullpen.
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: They're number 16, so they have the bullpen edge. White
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: Sox are sixth offensively right now, tied with Pittsburgh and
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay, so their hitting has been good again recently.
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: And they're the better hitting team, although Minnesota's okay. They're 11th,
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: tied with Miami and Atlanta. Eric Fetty is supposedly getting
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: the start for the White Sox, but I think what
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: the White Sox are going to do here, they might
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: put an opener in front of them, right? So if
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: you're going to play this game, what I would say
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: is pick over must start for Minnesota, but do not
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: pick a starter for Chicago, because I think it'll be...
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: Fetty either starting the game or they're going to put
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: an opener in front of them.
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: Let me see. Do they have Fetty listed as a
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: starter here? Let me see. American League, where are you?
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: They do have him listed as a starter right now,
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: but they still might put an opener in front of him.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: So I would just pick Ober to start this game.
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: Don't pick a White Sox starter. Fetty is going to
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: come into this game, and he's not that good.
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: 4.18 ERA, 1.39 whip.
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: He's got a 4.98 road ERA, so he's not that
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: good on the road. The White Sox have lost five
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: of his last six appearances.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: They're starting to ramp him up again, though.
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: He's pitched a little bit more in his last couple outings,
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: and he hasn't a lot of run over his last
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: couple outings, so I guess he's pitching a little bit
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: better here, but I don't trust him. His strikeout walk
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: ratio is still bad. This month, his hit rate's too
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: high on the season. His walk rate's not that good.
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: He gives up a lot of home runs. Doesn't really
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: strike guys out. So whether he starts or they put
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: an opener in front of him, he'll be in the game.
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: And I don't think that's a good thing for Chicago.
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: He's got a bad strikeout walk ratio.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: It's sitting at two.
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine isn't really good either. Against Minnesota,
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: he is actually good against Minnesota though. In 42 at bats,
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: 143 average, 408 OPS, 12-4 strikeout walk ratio. So those
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: are actually good numbers and a decent sample. So this
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: is At least for him, it's a decent matchup. Bailey
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: Ober on the other side from Minnesota, he's okay. 4.49 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: I actually think he's the better of these two pitchers,
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: and he's significantly better at home. His ERA is almost
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: three runs better at home. 3.27 home ERA with a.
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: 217 opponent batting average.
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: Pitched all right last time out.
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: He's had a decent month here, but his strikeout rate's
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: been really low, so I'm not going to say he's
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: really in great form here, but he's got an okay
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: hit rate on the season. He doesn't really walk anybody,
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: and his strikeout rate is also low. So he pitches
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: to contact and usually doesn't put that many guys on base.
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: His strikeout walk ratio below three is just kind of mediocre.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine is the lowest that it's been
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: in his career, though. He was a decent strikeout guy
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: a couple years ago, so maybe injuries have kind of
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: come into play here. He still pitches fairly effectively, though,
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: and he is good against the White Sox. 49 at-bats,
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: 204 average, 617 OPS, 10-3 strikeout walk ratio. And given that,
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: I think what I forgot to mention is that Minnesota's
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: in one of those spots where after they lose the
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: game in the return home spot, teams tend to bounce
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: back and do better in that next game.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: So I think Minnesota's going to have more motivation here.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: I prefer Ober.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: Over Fetty here, and it is It's typically a bounce-back
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: spot for a team after they lose that first game
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: back home.
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: So I like Minnesota in the first five in this one.
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: I think that would be the better way to play
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: this game. You could maybe look towards the first five
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: under if you really think Fedde and Ober will both
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: hold up their end of the bargain here. But I
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: like the spot better for Minnesota.
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: The home road splits favor Ober in the matchup here.
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: Obviously, I do not want to deal with the Minnesota
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: bullpen however you do this thing. But the money is
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: strongly indicating on Minnesota here.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: They're about minus 120 here. Public will look at that
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: and think, oh, I get the White Sox. The better
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: team is an underdog. And the public will want to
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: take the White Sox for that reason. That is not
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: what I would do. I think it's– the line is
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: this way for a reason, right?
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: The odds makers are telling you something by lining Minnesota
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: as the favorite here. They're pretty much telling you Minnesota
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: should have the slight edge in this.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: Game with this matchup.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: As this thing keeps refreshing and throwing me off, 57%
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 93% of the cash on Minnesota. So the
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: money is backing that side. Pittsburgh and St. Louis, not
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: happy about the result yesterday.
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: A 4-1 St. Louis win.
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty shocked that Pittsburgh didn't put up more runs.
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: Their offense had been better recently, too. Pittsburgh used three
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers.
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: And St.
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: Louis, part of that handicap was St. Louis' totally burned-out
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: bullpen situation. They used three guys yesterday, and they still
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: got the job done. Not happy about that. Pittsburgh is
• 22:54
  Speaker 5: the slightly better bullpen. They're number 21, St. Louis 22,
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: but Pittsburgh's ERA is almost half a run better. Pittsburgh
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: is the better offense. That's not really in question. They're
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: number six, well, tied with the White Sox and Tampa
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: Bay in six.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: St.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: Louis is 25th.
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: So Pittsburgh definitely has the edge there. This pitching matchup
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: really does not look great though, especially not on the
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh side with Lake Bashar.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: Listed as their starter. I think it's a bullpen game
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: for them. He's in an okay season. There's no doubt
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: about that.
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: His numbers are decent, but he's only going to be
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: in there for, I would say max three innings, but
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: they also might put an opener in front of them.
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: So if you're going to play this game, I would
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: say pick Lahima start for St. Louis and do not
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: pick a starter for Pittsburgh because it, It's going to
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: be some form of bullpen game for Pittsburgh here, which
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: may not be that great. Bashar doesn't even really have
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: good numbers against St.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: It's a small sample size, but they've been able to
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: hit him. So if he's in the game for two,
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: three innings here, I don't even think that's really a
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: good thing for Pittsburgh. Kyle Leahy is pitching for St. Louis,
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: and he's the actual starter here. He's actually kind of
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: turned his season around. He's been fairly good recently. He's
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: got a 3.13 ERA now, which is Definitely good, but
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: a 1.3 whip is not that good. He is good
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: at home for the most part, though. 2.91 home ERA.
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: Though his opponent batting average is actually kind of the same,
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: home and away, so he's only.
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: A little bit better at home.
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: But he's allowed only three earned runs over the month
• 24:25
  Speaker 5: of August, so he's been dealing, and he has a
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: ridiculous 24-2 strikeout walk ratio in the month of August.
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: He did walk both guys in his last outing against Philly,
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: and I think we... Lost on the show, I'm pretty sure,
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: with some sort of under in that game, which I'm
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: not happy about.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: Leahy wasn't the problem, though.
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: I think Zach Wheeler fell apart in that game, and
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: I think that's what the problem was, if I remember correctly.
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong. But yeah, Leahy, he's been good for
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: the last two months.
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: His command has been really good. So he's pitching pretty
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: well here. Does have too high of a hit rate, though.
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: He doesn't really walk that many guys, but he gives
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: up too many hits.
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: He's too hittable. His strikeout rate is okay.
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine is pretty good because he doesn't
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: really walk anybody, or strikeout walk ratio. I mean, I
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: always say the wrong thing. Dude, it's a habit at
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: this point. I can't get out of it. His strikeout
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: per nine is pretty good as well, though. He does
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: strike out a decent amount of guys. However, Pittsburgh has
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: had the upper hand against him when they face him.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: 28 at-bats here. Not a huge sample, but they have a.
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: 357 average,. 919 OPS average. 10-3 strikeout walk ratio against them.
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: So I actually lean to the over in this game.
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: It just doesn't really look like good pitching to me.
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: I know Leahy's been good recently, but the money's all
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: coming in on Pittsburgh here, and I don't really understand why.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think at this point both teams.
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: Are kind of resigned to the fact that they're probably
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: not making the playoffs, although it is a divisional series,
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: so they'll probably both still show up. St. Louis is
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: the public side, 76% of the tickets. This is what
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: I was talking about yesterday. Yesterday, the market read was
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: kind of similar to this, where St. Louis is getting
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: the public action because they have the better record. And
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: I was like, no, we're going to play Pittsburgh. It
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: didn't work out, but the money's coming in on Pittsburgh
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: again here, 91% of the tickets.
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: But, I mean, I backed Jones yesterday.
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, that seems a lot better than backing a
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh bullpen game here.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: So I don't really, I don't even agree with that, actually.
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: I would lean St.
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: Louis if you're really going to play the side here.
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: Maybe first five only because I really don't trust their bullpen.
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: They're at minus 120 or something, but I would lean
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: slightly towards St. Louis, towards the actual starter here. First five,
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: you might have to lay more of a price, though,
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: like minus 140 even might be where the price is
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: at there. Maybe it's less than that, but I still
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: think the better way to play this game is to
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: just play it over. The total's in no man's land
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: at eight and a half here. 80% of tickets, 88%
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the over. It looks like a
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: public over bet. Kind of, but some of the money
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: looks like it might be coming in that way, too.
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: So I believe that would be the way to play.
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: And I just think it's the pitching just doesn't look good.
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: Even the lay he's been all right, like the matchup
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: just doesn't look good for him. All right, Cincinnati and
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: the Chicago Cubs. I had this game pretty much right yesterday.
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: I said I leaned over in Cincinnati yesterday. Maybe it
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: was Cincinnati first five. I think it was probably my
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: side lean there. I think either one of those won.
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: I think they both won. David Peterson, he sucks.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: He was ass. The pitching just wasn't good in the game.
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: Reds wound up winning the game 10-8, but it was
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: also a return home spot for the Cubs, and you
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: know what I just said. Teams returning home from the road.
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: A lot of times it's a bad spot. They can
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: get distracted, possibly overlook their opponent. When that happens, a
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: lot of times they bounce back and they play better
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: in the next game. So the Cubs might be in
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: a bounce-back spot here. But if you want to play
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: the Cubs here, you've got to pay a pretty big
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: price for it, man. And I'm not sure that I
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: really love it. I mean, I know I don't. The
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: Cubs used three relief pitchers yesterday. They do have the
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: better bullpen here. Cincinnati used five. Cubs' bullpen is number 13.
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati is definitely worse than that. They're 25th, so there's
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: a pretty big gap in these bullpens here. Cubs are
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: number one in offense. There's a big gap here too,
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: 24th for the Reds. So the Cubs are definitely the
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: better team. And matchup-wise, yeah, they might have the edge
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: in all three phases of the game if you just say, well,
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: the Cubs have the better bullpen, they have the better hitting,
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: and they have the starter who's generally the better starter
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: on the mound here. But I actually think matchup-wise, maybe
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: that's not the case here. Andrew Abbott is pitching for Cincinnati.
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: He has not had a great season. 4.15 ERA, 1.4
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: whip is really ugly. He's better on the road, though. 3.57
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: road ERA. Struggling at home. I mean, this is definitely
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: his worst season that he's had. He's usually better than this,
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: but he's been reasonable in his last two starts, although
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: his team lost both games. It wasn't really his fault.
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: He pitched pretty well, for the most part, in his
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: last couple starts. Gave up some runs last time out,
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: but His command numbers got better, so he was walking
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: too many guys. He's not really a huge strikeout pitcher,
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: but his last two starts, to me, the pitching line
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: does look better.
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: He went deeper into those outings. He had a quality
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: start in one of them, and he was close to
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: having one in both. He's got a decent hit rate here.
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is definitely too high, though, and he
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: doesn't really strike anybody out. So his strikeout walk ratio
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: is really bad this year. It's the worst that it's
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: been in his career. It's below two, which is really
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: not good. His strikeout per nine is also the lowest
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: that he's posted, so that's not really that good, but
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: he seems to be an okay form at least right
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: now and for whatever reason he is good against the
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: cubs in 121 at bats they only have a 182
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: average against him at 553 ops however his strikeout walk
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: ratio is still not good against them 23 to 15
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: that's really ugly really really bad actually but other than
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: that the numbers here are good So the Cubs have
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: not really been able to hit him, and he is
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: better on the road. So Abbott might actually have a
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: little bit of a sneaky edge here. Kevin Gaussman is
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: pitching for the Cubs. They picked him up at the
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: trade deadline. Hasn't had his best season here, man. He
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: was better the last couple of seasons. He's got a 4.37 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's not bad, but it's definitely not as great,
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: and it's not as good as he usually is.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: He's generally a little bit better at home, 3.82 home ERA.
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: That was mostly with Toronto, though.
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: But his opponent batting average at home is actually higher.
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: Since the Cubs got him, I believe it's these last
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: four starts are the ones that he made with the Cubs.
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: And he's had two good starts and two bad starts.
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: His last one was good. Both of the good ones
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: are actually on the road. And his one home start
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: wasn't really that good. His worst one was also on
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: the road, though. But, yeah, last time out he shut
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: out Arizona for seven innings in a pitcher-friendly park. So
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: you could argue maybe he's coming back into form here
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: a little bit. The one good thing is that in
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: the month of August, his strikeout walk ratio is good
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: at 26 to 6. So his command has been good.
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is kind of too high on the season, though,
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: right around one per inning. So he's been a little
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: bit too hittable here. His strikeout rate's pretty good, and
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: his walk rate's not that bad. So his strikeout walk ratio,
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: not bad here. In the mid threes, that's not bad.
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine is also okay. It's almost one per inning.
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: So his problem is that he's actually been a bit
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: too hittable this year. And against the Reds, they only
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: have six hitters who have faced him, but Suarez.
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: Has 26 at-bats. I thought the Reds designated Suarez for assignment.
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: Him and, I forget, they had one other guy I
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: thought that they designated for assignment. Maybe they didn't.
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: Maybe Suarez is back because he was unclaimed or something.
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: So I would take these numbers with a little bit
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: of a grain of salt because Suarez has the majority
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: of these at-bats, and I don't know if he's still
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: on the team. But if you include him, 46 at-bats,
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: Reds have a. 326 average and. 911 OPS against Gaussman,
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: 14-3 strikeout walk ratio. If you take Suarez out, Gaussman's
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: numbers do get better, though.
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: So what do we do with this game?
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: Cubs Republic, 83% of tickets, 91% of the cash on them.
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: Some of the money's coming in that way, too, although
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: They're around minus 180-something. The price seems high to me, man.
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: I think I would lean Cincinnati first five here, even
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: though the Cubs are kind of in that bounce-back spot.
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: But this is the type of game that the Reds,
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: even though they're not going anywhere this season, this is
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: the type of game they will get up for. Like
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: a dead team, they're going to get up for a
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: big divisional game like this where they get to They
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: have a chance to play spoiler and whatever. And Abbott
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: does have the better matchup numbers here, believe it or not.
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: And it's a little bit sneaky, but he is also
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: a little bit better on the road. So I think
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: maybe I would just lean that way. Reds first five.
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: You might be able to get a plus half run
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: on that at a decent price. The money's slightly indicating
• 32:58
  Speaker 5: towards the over, although the over is also public. The
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: total at eight and a half juice to the over.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: I don't have a great sense for the total there.
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: I could see the argument that maybe just both pitchers
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: just aren't exactly at their greatest at this.
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: Point, so maybe the over makes some sense here.
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: It's a Wrigley game, so the total tells you what
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: the weather's doing, too, and this, I think, pretty much
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: kind of tells you that the weather's not really doing anything.
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Of note there.
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: All right, the next two games, this is the best
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: bet segment. I have a best bet in both of
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: the next two games. Although, actually, wait a minute.
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: I'm trying to remember. There's one other game. Oh, we
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: haven't gotten to it yet. It's after these two games.
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: I was going to say there's one other doubleheader today,
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: but it's a West Coast doubleheader, so I haven't gotten
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: to it yet. This next game, we're going to take
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: the under in this next game. I talked about it yesterday.
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: I liked the under in yesterday's game. It was Hancock
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: that wound up pitching yesterday for Seattle, so I would
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: have just gone with my lean with the under in
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: that game yesterday. I wound up not putting it on
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: my card, though. I just I don't know, something just
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: didn't feel quite right about it. And it did not,
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: the under did not hit in the game, so luckily
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: I did not add it.
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: But I mentioned.
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: Seattle-Toronto, these offenses have really struggled here, so I think
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: this is going to be a series where you can
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: find some unders, and I think this is a game
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: where you can do it, and we are going to
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: do it. We're going to take this game under 7.5, which,
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: of course, you know me with my unders. It's all
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: these low totals, which the oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: you to expect a low-scoring game here.
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: And I think that.
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: The money is agreeing with me on this. 60% of
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: tickets on the over. 67% of the cash on the under.
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: So the money is indicating towards the under on this
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: one here. Now, in the game yesterday, I believe Toronto
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: won 8-1. Yeah, so the game did not go under yesterday.
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: It was mostly just Emerson Hancock. I don't think he
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: really held up his end of the bargain, but the
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: hope here is that the young gun for the Mariners
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: is going to hold up his end of the bargain
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: here against a lineup that really should not be hitting
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: like this. Toronto scoring eight runs, that's not going to
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: happen again. Although I know I don't love Seattle's bullpen,
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: but they only used two guys yesterday. Their better relievers
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: are all available here. They're pretty well rested, so I'm
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: okay with leaving the bullpens in here. Toronto's bullpen is okay,
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: and they didn't really use their better reliever because it.
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: Was a blowout.
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: After a blowout like that, if there was light bullpen usage,
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: it sets up nicely usually so that the high leverage
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: arms usually just don't come into a game like that.
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: So Toronto used three guys. Their high leverage arms are
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: all available today, too. So I think the bullpen should.
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: Be okay here.
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: Toronto's ranked 18th. Their bullpen's not that bad, though, and
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: they do have one of the better closers. Seattle's ranked 19th. Talent-wise,
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: Seattle's bullpen is better than what they've shown this year.
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: But I think the bullpens, again, they should be okay enough,
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: especially given that these offenses suck. Toronto's 27th after that
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: barrage yesterday. They're out of the basement here, and Seattle's 29th.
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: But these are not bullpens that are performing. Excuse me,
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: these are not offenses that are performing well. We're going
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: to back Kate Anderson on the side of Seattle here.
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: He's a guy who was one of the top pitching
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: prospects in baseball, and he was demolishing AA. But as
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: I keep mentioning with him, Seattle, they do not– have
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: their pitching prospects really pitch in AAA, which I think
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: is stupid. It's because it's high elevation there, but I
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: think they should have their pitchers pitch there because it'll
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: battle test them, and then they'll possibly pitch better in
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: an environment that's not a high elevation environment like Seattle
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: or wherever else they're pitching unless it's going to be
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: Coors Field. Anderson, I know his numbers don't look great here, 4.76 ERA, 1.24 whip.
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: He only made one start, and it was against the Cubs.
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: The Cubs are one of the best offenses in baseball,
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: and they're really hitting well right now. And he labored
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: through it. They didn't have him throw that many pitches.
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: He almost went six complete innings there. And if he did,
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: he would have had a quality start, by the way.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: If he got one more out, he would have had
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: a quality start there. Although, you know, I mean, he
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: was a little bit shaky. He went five and two-thirds,
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: gave up three runs on five hits. Five strikeouts was decent,
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: two walks. But, you know, Toronto's a much easier lineup
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: to face than the Cubs, so I think that's good.
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: I think he's battle-tested a bit after facing the Cubs.
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: Toronto's going to be a much easier lineup to face
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: than the Cubs.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: And, you know, I talk about the unfamiliarity.
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: When you have a pitcher that's a highly touted prospect
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: like this, you know he's got good stuff.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: The unfamiliarity should help him here.
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: It should be an advantage against especially a weak lineup
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: that hasn't seen him before.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: So I think Anderson should do fine here.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: And we're also backing Jose Soriano on the other side,
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: even though, oh my God, I know he's at home
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: where he doesn't typically do as well. But I think
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: Soriano should be okay here as well. He's got a 3.43 ERA.
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: His whip, I know, is not really that good at 1.29.
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: His ERA is worse at home, 3.58 on the season.
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: Mostly with Anaheim, though, because you remember Toronto picked him
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: up around the trade deadline. His opponent batting average, though,
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: is actually better at home, 216. He's made four starts
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: with Toronto so far, and they've won three of them.
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: last time out, he wasn't that good, but it was
• 38:18
  Speaker 5: at the Yankees. So I might give him a pass
• 38:20
  Speaker 5: for that. I mean, that wasn't the easiest matchup to
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: have to face at the Yankees. His other three starts
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: were pretty good. And he's actually been better in his
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: home starts since going to Toronto a little bit. So, uh,
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: actually he's only had one home start. It was against
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox. It was his best start with Toronto.
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: So maybe for whatever reason, he doesn't pitch well in Anaheim, uh, necessarily,
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: but maybe he pitches well in other stadiums. Um, I
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: know his walk rate's not that good this month, and
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate has gone down a little bit here.
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: The walks are definitely a concern with him. He's pretty unhittable, though.
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: He's tough to hit. He does walk too many guys.
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: He strikes out a good amount of guys, usually, though,
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: and he gets a lot of grounders. So his strikeout
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: walk ratio is actually not that good, just because his
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: walk rate is still way too high, and that is
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: a concern with him, the walks. His strikeout per nine
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: is good, though. He's striking out basically one guy per inning.
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: Seattle has seen him a lot because he was on Anaheim,
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: so Seattle's very familiar with him, but Soriano has had
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: the upper hand against them in 104 at-bats. 31-9 strikeout
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: walk ratio is actually better than what he usually produces,
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: and they have a mediocre 269 average against them. That
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: is actually slightly high, but they have not really hit
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: him for power, even though they have some contact hitting
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: against them. OPS is 699, so that's definitely below that
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: 750 average.
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: Threshold that I look for so I think the pitching is.
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: Pretty good in this game I think we're looking at
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: good enough pitchers and weak enough offenses that we can
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: get this thing done so we're playing the under here
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: as I already pointed out the money agrees with this
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: the side it looks like a lot of money is
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: coming in on or the money looks like it is
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: coming in on Toronto in this game for what that's worth.
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: 65% of tickets, 81% of the cash on them. They're
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: around minus 120. I guess maybe the professionals don't really
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: trust Anderson or maybe they like Soriano. I'm not sure,
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: but they are playing the under, so they seem to
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: think both pitchers will do well here.
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: I don't have a read on the side, man. I mean,
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: Seattle's a more desperate team. You know what I mean?
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: Toronto's out of it, even though Toronto, well, Toronto, I guess.
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: Technically isn't out of it because the AL East is,
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: like the best division in the American league. So, um,
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: and you know, it's going to be like Toronto being
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: in that division has, uh, made them look kind of
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: worse than they actually really are. And they're still kind
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: of in the wild card race. It's not going to
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: happen for Toronto though, but Seattle, they have a, clearer
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: path to making the playoffs and that's they have to
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: win their division but they're not out of it you
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: know what I mean so I think Seattle the desperation
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: the motivation is probably on the Seattle side I think
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: I would lean that way actually I think I would
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: prefer the unfamiliarity with Anderson overall what Soriano's doing although
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: I might go first five if I was going to
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: take Seattle you might still get them as an underdog
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: in the first five but I think maybe that's what
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: I would do Next game is my other play and
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: this is also an under and I know it's a
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: Washington game it's Miami Washington I know right now I
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: have this listed as under seven and a half in
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: the full game and plus 100 so it's even money
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: decent price on this getting under the hook and I
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: know I hate Washington's bullpen I really don't want to
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: deal with them. I'm torn here, man, because I did
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: not see a number better than three and a half
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: in the first five, but this is what I will say.
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: I'll update the show description, and I'll put my Instagram
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: video out and whatever and tell you what I'm actually
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: doing here. I think if we can find a four
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: in the first five, I think maybe that's what I
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: would do. I would still make this a first five
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: under four. But maybe extending this full game isn't really
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: that bad because Alcantara is on one side. He goes
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: pretty deep into his outings. Cavalli on the other side,
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: they've been letting him.
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: Go a little bit more too.
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: So I still don't hate this. I still agree with
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: the under full game. It's just a question of which
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: way is better, the first five or full game. Full game,
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: you get under the seven and a half at least.
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: It's just Washington's bullpen just might wreck you.
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? That's the whole thing. So
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: I'm going to keep an eye on it.
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: If I find a four, I might switch this to
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: the first five under, but I'm going to score it
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: as whichever one I wind up doing here.
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: The money's agreeing with this.
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: It looks like a very similar market read to the
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: game I just gave out. 75% of tickets were on
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: the over here. 66% of the cash on the unders.
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: The money seems like it is on the under here.
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: So obviously I'm agreeing with that. Washington won the game
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: yesterday 9-2. And Washington was 0-6, by the way, against
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: the Marlins until that game. And I mentioned that yesterday,
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: even though I kind of liked the Marlins in the
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: matchup yesterday. Washington, to me, seemed like they might have
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: some motivation because they were just swept by the Marlins
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: not that long ago. And I forgot they actually got
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: swept by the Marlins, I think, at home earlier this year.
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: So they were 0-6 against them. Now they're 1-6 against them.
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: Miami might think they can still make the playoffs, so
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: Miami might have a little bit of desperation here in
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: this one. I'm not really going to be looking at
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: the side here, although the money is coming in on Miami,
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure. And Alcantara is the more established pitcher,
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: and Miami clearly has the better bullpen. Miami only used
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: two relief pitchers yesterday, and they were off the day
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: before that.
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: But that's one thing that I do.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: kind of like as far as the Miami bullpen's good
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: to go. Washington, though, they only use one guy out
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: of their bullpen, so if you do go full game
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: on this, Washington's better relievers mostly are available here, even
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: though I don't think their bullpen is very good, and
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: they did play on Thursday, unlike Miami.
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: That was the other thing. Miami had the rest edge yesterday,
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure, and they still lost. Miami's bullpen is
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: good enough. I mean, there's six.
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: I'm okay with leaving them, and they're not that good,
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: but they're good enough.
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: Washington, I know they're not a good bullpen. They're number 26.
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: They're one of the bullpens that I consider to be
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: dangerous to actually back.
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: One of five, which are Washington, Colorado, Minnesota, A's, and Royals.
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: I think those are the ones that you actually legitimately
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: want to avoid, and I know if I play this
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: full game, I know I'm not avoiding it, but everything
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: else lines up for an under here, man. except that
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: I know Washington's offense is good. They're number three, but
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: they haven't been as good recently. Miami's 11th tie with
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: Atlanta and Minnesota. I think they've had a little bit
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: of a drop-off too, but really this is mostly about
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: the pitching here. This is one of the better pitching
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: matchups of the day. Alcantara, Sandy Alcantara's pitching from Miami, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 whip.
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: He's kind of found himself again, man.
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's a former Cy Young winner. He's kind
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: of lost his like strikeout stuff and whatever, or his
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: velocity because he, went through Tommy John surgery and whatever.
• 44:53
  Speaker 5: He's having a good season, though, and I know he's
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: not as good on the road, 4.11 road ERA, so
• 44:58
  Speaker 5: you really want to back him more at home. But
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: he's just in good form right now, man, for the
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: most part. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 45:04
  Speaker 5: every start, in all but one start for the last
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: couple months here, or really the last few months. So
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: it doesn't even seem to matter that much whether he's
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: home or away here. Although his worst couple of starts
• 45:18
  Speaker 5: were on the road, so I will say that. But, yeah,
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: he's in pretty good form right now. He's not allowing
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: many runs. He's been fairly hard to hit this year.
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: He hasn't been walking really that many guys. He's been
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: a grinder, and that's the other thing I like about
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: this is he goes deep into these starts, so you
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: don't have to worry as much about the bullpen when
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: you have a starter going this deep into his outings.
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is definitely low, though, although his walk
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: rate isn't too bad this year either, but his strikeout
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: rate's gone way down, but because he walks few enough people,
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: his strikeout walk ratio is He's still close to three,
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: which isn't too bad, although his strikeout per nine is
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: the lowest it's ever been. So his strikeout stuff isn't
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: really there, but he's obviously figured out how to pitch
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: given those limitations, and he's good against Washington in his career.
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: 71 at-bats, you.
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: Probably could have guessed. 225 average against 567 OPS. You
• 46:07
  Speaker 5: could have guessed that his numbers were going to be
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: good against them. Nine to three strikeout walk ratio. So
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: Alcantara does set up pretty well here. And then on
• 46:15
  Speaker 5: the other side, Cade Cavalli. He's pitching really well recently
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: for Washington. I identified him as a pitcher that I
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: thought was actually good a while ago, and now it's
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: not really a secret anymore, but I still think we're
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: going to do well playing the under here. 3.21 ERA, 1.21
• 46:30
  Speaker 5: whip from him.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: Not bad.
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: I know the home road splits are actually against both
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: guys here. He's got a 3.43 home ERA, but he's
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: in good form right now.
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: I don't think it really matters.
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: He has a 39-7 strikeout walk ratio this month. And
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: he hasn't really thrown that many pitches in his last
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: couple outings. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: every outing going all the way back into early June.
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: And he's allowed four or fewer in literally every start
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: on the season. He's got a reasonably low hit rate.
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: He doesn't really walk that many guys, and he does
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: strike out a lot of guys. So he has a
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: high strikeout rate. His strikeout walk ratio is around four.
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine is also fairly high in the draft.
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: and he's also pretty good against Miami. They have 55
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: at-bats against him, a 255 average, 596 OPS, 10-4 strikeout
• 47:18
  Speaker 5: walk ratio, so the matchup definitely indicates towards an under here,
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: I would say, even though the strikeout walk ratio I
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: know is, or excuse me, what am I saying?
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: I'm out of my mind because I'm trying to refresh
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: this page. I'm like, what the fuck is going on here?
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: The home road splits, I mean, are not in favor
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: of either pitcher here, but The money seems to agree
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: with me on this. The odds makers are putting up
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: a low total here for a reason. I think the
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: pitching should be good in this one. Cavalli's been going
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: pretty deep into his outings too. So if you do
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: play full game, hopefully he does that and the bullpen
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: can kind of just, just bring in their best arms
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: to finish the game off. Again, I'm going to keep
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: a lookout because I think if you can find a
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: first five under four, that's probably what I would do.
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: You might not be able to find it though. So again,
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: keep an eye out for my Instagram video for the
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: description and I'll, uh, update you with what I decide
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: to do, but I am going to have a play
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: on the under here, and it's either going to be
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: full game or first five.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: I'm just not sure yet.
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: All right, so that's that. Two unders for today in baseball.
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: Hopefully we get back on track with those. Arizona, San Francisco,
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: as I mentioned, they're playing a doubleheader today. And San Francisco,
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: they're in a pretty tricky situation here. I mean, they're
• 48:31
  Speaker 5: not going anywhere this year, so this is probably just
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: going to be good for Arizona. Because Arizona, you know,
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: they're still in the mix trying to make the playoffs here.
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: So they're going to be motivated here. San Francisco normally,
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: I would say, would be motivated to try to play
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: spoiler here against Arizona.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: But San Francisco.
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: They have to play a doubleheader here, and the next
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: two guys up in the rotation are going to be
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: Carson Wisenhunt and Adrian Hauser, or kind of a bullpen
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: game that uses.
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: Hauser a lot.
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: Well, they're both hurt now, so that's why they have
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: no idea who they're pitching today. The next two guys
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: up in the rotation both got hurt, so this is
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: not good for San Francisco. I don't think their pitching
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: is going to be good in either one of these games,
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: but I also don't like Arizona's pitching in either one
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: of these games.
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: So I think both games.
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: probably you could just look towards the over in both games.
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: I mean I don't have a great feel for these
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: games and I think that might be what I would
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: be doing here I don't really want to do it
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: but I think that might be uh the way to
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: go here Even though I know I went over in
• 49:31
  Speaker 5: the first game of the series, it didn't happen. Yesterday
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: went way over the total as Arizona bounced back and
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: won 10-6. So that pissed me off a little bit
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: more that yesterday's game went over. These two games look
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: like they're going to go over, even though San Francisco
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The pitching is very questionable here.
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, again, we don't even know who San Francisco's
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: pitching in these games. It's probably not going to be
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: anything good coming out of them. San Francisco's bullpen is
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: kind of unrested here. They used three guys yesterday. They're
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: not a very good bullpen this year. Arizona used five,
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: so their bullpen doesn't look like it's setting up very
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: well here. They're going to have to play two games
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: today after that usage.
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: So to me, this looks like it's kind of dominoing.
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: After all these pitchers got used yesterday, now it's dominoing
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: into this doubleheader here today. Seems pretty brutal to me.
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: And maybe tomorrow will be another overlook.
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Overlook, huh?
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: Arizona's ranked 7th in bullpen, but they're not as good
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: as that. I mean, their ERA is above 4, so
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: they're a mediocre bullpen. San Francisco's ranked 24th. Their ERA
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: is not quite that bad, but they're not a good
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: bullpen really either.
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: Offensively, these teams.
• 50:40
  Speaker 5: kind of struggling, really. Arizona's 19th, although they've been better recently. Yesterday,
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: there was no struggle on offense. Arizona's tied with Detroit.
• 50:47
  Speaker 5: Arizona's actually moved up a bit since the All-Star break.
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: San Francisco, I don't think they're a very good offense.
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: They're 21st.
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: I think Arizona is the better offense here. Merrill Kelly
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: will be starting for Arizona in the first game. He's
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: had a bad season, man. He's had a decent career,
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: but this is I think he's just falling off a
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: cliff this year.
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: I think he's about to retire. 5.35 ERA, 1.51 whip
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: is really bad.
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: He's actually not as bad on the road, though. He
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: pitches worse in Arizona's hitter-friendly stadium. Maybe he'll do a
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: little bit better in a pitcher-friendly stadium here. 4.76 road ERA,
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: still not good, though. He's not in good form at all, though.
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: Over the past month, including a couple of road starts
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: that weren't good, he's got a 17-18 strikeout walk ratio.
• 51:33
  Speaker 5: In addition to way too many hits and runs allowed,
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: he's not pitching well at all. He's not in good
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: form here. Arizona's losing most of his recent starts. His
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: hit rate is too high on the season. His walk
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: rate's not good. His strikeout rate is not good either.
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: It's low. His strikeout walk ratio is actually.
• 51:49
  Speaker 5: Pitiful at 1.5, even though he's had around a 3
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: in his career. That number's really bad. Again, he's fallen
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: completely off a cliff. His strikeout per nine is below six.
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: It's by far the worst he's ever posted. Yeah, this
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: is by far his worst season. He is actually generally
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: pretty good against San Francisco, though. 41 career bats, 244 average,
• 52:12
  Speaker 5: 725 OPS, 6-1 strikeout walk ratio. He is in the
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: better home road split here, and he does pitch okay
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: against San Francisco. As far as the side in this game...
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: probably I would say you could lean Arizona here. Maybe
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: Kelly won't be horrible, and maybe he'll be good enough
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: to beat whatever the hell San Francisco is doing here,
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: and Arizona with the motivation here. I would also lean
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: to the over. I don't even think we have numbers
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: on these games yet, though.
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: Let me see. I'm trying to find these games. Where
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: are we looking? Yeah. Actually, we do. This first game,
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: the total is 7.5. Are you kidding me?
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: How?
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: How?
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: Is that really right? And there's no number on this.
• 52:55
  Speaker 5: The second game looks like Arizona's a small favorite. First game,
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: it looks like maybe around the same. Looks like kind
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: of a pick and price on both. Seven and a half,
• 53:03
  Speaker 5: there's no way.
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: Like, if you can find a.
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: Seven and a half out there, I mean, I guess just, yeah,
• 53:09
  Speaker 5: I mean, I would take the shot with the over
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: in this first game here. And again, I would take
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: the shot with the over in the second. The second
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: game might be the better game to take the over
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: because Mitch Bratt is pitching for Arizona and He's definitely struggled.
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know, man.
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: I don't think there's that much to this guy, and
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: it's also undecided for San Francisco, and the bullpens already
• 53:29
  Speaker 5: kind of worked. If they get even more worked after
• 53:31
  Speaker 5: the first game, those bullpens are going to be really
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: overworked moving into the second game, even though, yes, these
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: teams are allowed to call, I think, two guys up
• 53:40
  Speaker 5: for a doubleheader. I forget if that's the rule, but
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: you're allowed to call at least one guy up.
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: I think it's two.
• 53:46
  Speaker 5: Mitch Bratt has a 4.54 ERA. 1.56 whip is not good, though.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: And he's been bad on the road.
• 53:52
  Speaker 5: 6.16 road ERA. San Francisco, I don't think, has seen
• 53:57
  Speaker 5: him yet. But Bratt does not have good numbers here.
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's not that great around one per inning.
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is way too high. His strikeout rate's
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: kind of low, too. So there's really not that much
• 54:07
  Speaker 5: to like about Bratt here. Recent form really isn't that great, either.
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: His team has lost his last three starts. Strikeout walk
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: ratio at 1.1, very bad. Strikeout per nine, not really
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: that good either. He is unfamiliar to San Francisco. I
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: don't think that's really going to be enough, though. So
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: I would say both of these games I would lean
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: towards the over. I lean Arizona on the side in
• 54:29
  Speaker 5: the first game, but I still think the way to
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: play both these games is just play them over. I'm
• 54:34
  Speaker 5: not going to do anything with them, but that would
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: be my opinion in those games.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: Doubleheaders making this show take way too long, man. I
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: got to get through like three more games, and then
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: I guess I'll take a break.
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: Colorado, Atlanta.
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: Colorado came close to being able to cover that run
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: line yesterday, and it didn't quite work out. I said
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: first five in that one, and Colorado almost was able
• 55:01
  Speaker 5: to do it. I think they tied it in the
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: fourth inning or something, and they fell back by one run.
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: Atlanta won the game 6-4. I mean, Colorado, terrible team.
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: We know this, even though I didn't think the matchup...
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: I mean, I didn't think the setup was really that
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: great for Atlanta yesterday, but they're just the better team, man.
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: I mean, Colorado, these three relief pitchers, Colorado's bullpen is
• 55:22
  Speaker 5: a lot worse than Atlanta's.
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: Atlanta used four. Atlanta still has the bullpen edge. They're
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: ranked fourth. I think they are like a top five bullpen. Colorado.
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: Is 27th they are not a good bullpen they're definitely
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: bottom five um atlanta number 11 offensively like i said
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: tied with miami and minnesota colorado is good offensively though
• 55:43
  Speaker 5: they're ranked fourth so we do have two capable offenses
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: here and the pitching in this game does look fairly
• 55:48
  Speaker 5: questionable ryan feltner for colorado he is not good uh 6.08
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: era 1.1 uh 1.55 whip He has a better ERA
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: on the road, 5.86 road ERA away from Coors Field,
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: but his opponent batting average is actually worse on the
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: road at 301, so he's not really good either way.
• 56:08
  Speaker 5: He's not in good form here. Strikeout walk ratio's bad
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: this month. He's given up way too many hits, so
• 56:14
  Speaker 5: that's really been the case all season. I mean, that's just,
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: that's just, it is what it is, man. High hit rate,
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: high walk rate, not a good strikeout rate either. Strikeout
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: walk ratio's really bad. Below two, strikeout per nine is
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: the worst that he's posted in his career.
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: Below 7, none of that is good.
• 56:29
  Speaker 5: And as you could expect, his numbers are not good
• 56:32
  Speaker 5: against Atlanta either.
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: He's 66 at-bats, 370.
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: I mean, you never know, but 379 average allowed, 1,049 OPS.
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: 13-2 strikeout walk ratio is good, but I don't expect
• 56:43
  Speaker 5: much out of Feltner here.
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to do a whole lot.
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: Martin Perez is pitching for Atlanta.
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: Again, you've got to give him credit.
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: Pitching fairly well, even though he's getting up there in
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: age and he's a junk pitcher. He's been effective for
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: Atlanta this year. 3.12 ERA, but his whip is going up.
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: It's up to 1.21.
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: He's good at home, though. He's been really good at home.
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: 2.02 ERA with a 173 opponent batting average at home.
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: Not really good in his last two outings, though. And
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: his strikeout walk ratio hasn't really been that good recently.
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: He's walking too many guys recently. Not really striking guys out,
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: although he's not a strikeout pitcher. On the course of
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: the season, he does have a low hit rate. His
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: walk rate really isn't that good, though. and neither is
• 57:25
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate. So advanced analytics guys are telling you
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: they don't think this guy's going to continue to pitch
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: that well, and he is regressing a little bit.
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio is pretty bad. It's below 2.
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: That's not very good.
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per 9, one of the lowest that he's had
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: in his career, below 7, so that's really not that good.
• 57:43
  Speaker 5: So I don't know if he's going to be able
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: to continue doing what he's been doing. His last couple
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: starts haven't been that good, but he is good against Colorado.
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: They have 33 at-bats against him, and they only have
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: one extra base hit.
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: A home run from Goodman.
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: 212 average, 538 OPS, 11 to 1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: So Perez does seem to match up okay here.
• 58:03
  Speaker 5: I think Atlanta probably does win here, but oh, I
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: can just click on MLB to get this to reload.
• 58:10
  Speaker 5: It must fire off like a JavaScript function or something
• 58:13
  Speaker 5: to get this thing to come back up.
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know, whatever it is. Let me see here.
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: Somebody hire me again, man, for engineering. Let's go. Where's
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: this number here? Yeah, here it is.
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's in the minus 220 range here. I mean, you
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: can't really lay a price like that. They have 93%
• 58:33
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 88% of the cash on them, even though
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's really the only team that has something to play for.
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: Colorado might still show up, you know, because they get
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: to play against one of the better teams here.
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: I think Atlanta does win.
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: I would not try to play Colorado on the side here,
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: even though the money seems to agree with it. You
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: play Atlanta, you have to lay like the minus one
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: and a half, though. I don't know if they're really
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: going to be able to get there with that.
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: I do lean probably over in this game. The total
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: is nine.
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: The money does agree with that. 64% of tickets, 73%
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the over. I mean, I don't
• 59:06
  Speaker 5: think the pitching is just any good, really, from either
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: side here so the over makes more sense to me
• 59:12
  Speaker 5: but you could combine the two right because Perez you
• 59:15
  Speaker 5: know you don't necessarily want to fade him when he
• 59:17
  Speaker 5: has good matchup numbers and he is in the better
• 59:19
  Speaker 5: home road split at home here. So, of course, that
• 59:21
  Speaker 5: does mean the way that you could play this game
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: is to just take Atlanta team total over, just take
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: Atlanta to score off of Feltner and not worry about Perez,
• 59:29
  Speaker 5: who might still be a little bit of a mystery
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: here as far as, like, what he's going to actually
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: do in this game. I mean, he's not a mystery
• 59:37
  Speaker 5: to opposing hitters at this point, I don't think. But, yeah,
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: Atlanta team total over makes some sense. You probably need
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: him to score six runs, though, if you do that.
• 59:45
  Speaker 5: which is quite a bit. Kansas City and, oh no, Houston,
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: New York, sorry. Houston and the Mets. I skipped over it.
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: It was just, it's post-traumatic stress, man. All the trauma
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: from yesterday. That's why I skipped over it. 3-1 Houston
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: win yesterday. The Mets blew the lead after they were
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: winning at the end of five. The Mets had more
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: hits in the game.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: I'm not happy.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 5: The Mets used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: I do think they have the slightly better bullpen, although
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: these bullpens are both not bad.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: Houston used two guys.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: They did use Hayter again, even though he pitched the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: day before that. He didn't throw that many pitches, but
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: I still thought maybe he'd be a little bit off
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 5: if they were using him two days in a row.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: That's not what happened. Mets are number eight in bullpen.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: Their bullpen is pretty good. Houston's is a little bit worse.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 5: They're at 12. Their ERA is above four, but they're
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 5: both decent bullpens, I would say. Houston's definitely better offensively.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: They're number 10. The Mets are 26th, although a bit
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 5: better since the All-Star break. Bennett Souza looks like he's
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: getting the start for Houston. I wouldn't trust that, though,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: because he's a relief pitcher, and his numbers are terrible,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 5: by the way.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: But it looks like it's going to be a bullpen
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: game for Houston here. So I would treat it as such.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: And if you're going to play this game, I'd pick
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: Nolan McClain must start for the Mets and not pick
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: a starter for Houston. and you know what this means.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: I like the Mets in this game. Again, that's the
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: only way that I would play this game. Uh, McLean
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 5: versus a bullpen game. I almost put this on my card.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 5: If I was going to add another play to my card,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: I would add this one. I would add the Mets, um,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: money line.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: Probably.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 5: I think I would probably still leave it as a
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 5: full game play. Cause Houston is going with a full
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: bullpen game here. So it's not like you have to
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: weigh the bullpens against each other.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: Really?
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 5: Um, I believe this will be a bullpen game for Houston.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 5: Although you do have to look at, um, But yeah,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: like I said, play McLean must start, but don't pick
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 5: a starter for Houston because I have no idea if
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 5: it's really going to be Souza or not.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: Let me see.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: Five games ago, Houston. It was Christian Javier that they
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 5: used five games ago.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Is he up to pitch today?
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: So we might get some of him in this game.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 5: He's been awful too, though. It looks like it is
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: his turn in the rotation. So Javier might get some
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 5: of the bulk workload here. And he is actually good
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: against the Mets. So if it is him, Yeah, maybe
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 5: we should just stay away from this one. Javier has
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 5: held the Mets to some really low numbers here, as
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 5: you can see here. I'm not going to go through
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: it in much detail, but, well, maybe I will. Mets
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: have a 184 average against a 518 OPS and 49 at-bats,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: 19-6 strikeout walk ratio, although Javier's overall numbers are terrible. 6.47 ERA, 1.66 whip,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: but I think he may be pitching in this game
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: after an opener.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: So it'll probably be Souza opening, and then they'll go
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: to Javier.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: I still don't think that that's good, though, even though
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 5: Javier does have good numbers against the Mets. I would
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 5: rather trust Nolan McClain here. Now, one thing we do
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 5: have to worry about, and we do have to worry
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 5: about it with Cavalli, too, even though I gave out
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 5: the under in that game. Cavalli and McClain both are
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 5: up there in their innings pitch, you know what I mean?
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 5: They've both thrown more innings than they ever have before.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: So you do have to worry about that a little
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 5: bit with these young guys getting up there in innings,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: but they both, well, McLean doesn't look as good recently.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: Cavalli looks like he's really pitching well recently, so I
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: don't really, I'm not too worried about him right now.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: McLean has still been good on the season, though. 3.21 ERA, 1.14 whip.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 5: He is a little bit worse at home, though. 3.96
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 5: home ERA, but low opponent batting average either way.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: McLean has been a little bit wild recently, though. He's
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: been good. He's allowed one or fewer runs in his
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: last three starts.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: But his walk rate has gone up again so he's
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 5: been walking multiple guys every start here.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: More than three or more in his three of.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 5: His last four so that's not really that great that
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 5: worries me a little bit that mclean is a little
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 5: bit out of command right now does have a low
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: hit rate on the season his walk rate is a
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 5: little bit high but he does have a really high
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate too so that helps him out his strikeout
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 5: rates around three for that reason but yeah he does
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: have a problem with the command though but he's still
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 5: a good pitcher and his strikeout for nine is quite
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 5: high In the tens, Houston doesn't have much experience against them.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 5: They have two guys who have faced them, Nick Allen
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: and Dalton Varshow. Varshow has the only hit off him.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: They're one for five combined. Varshow with a double. They
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 5: have three strikeouts and no walks against them. So McLean
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 5: could ride that unfamiliarity against them. I still like the
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 5: Mets here, man. I would prefer playing McLean, who is
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: pretty much an established starter at this point against a
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 5: Houston bullpen game. I would lean Mets here. It was
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: close to making the cut for me. Money seems to
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 5: agree with this. The Mets are around minus 130-something, so
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 5: I would just say Mets money line here.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: Pretty simple.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 5: 69% of tickets, 88% of the cash on the Mets.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: If you force me to add another play, like I said,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: that's what I would do. I would play the Mets
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: in that one. Kansas City, Cleveland. I told you, man,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 5: Cleveland in the return home spot. Yet again, another thing
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 5: I got right yesterday, which I'm pissed about. I liked
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 5: the under in that game yesterday. I was a little
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 5: bit worried about Bybee's numbers, and of course, Kansas City
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 5: also wound up winning the game, and they were winning
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 5: at the end of five as well, and I said
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 5: Kansas City first five in that game was a lean
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 5: for me as well. It was Cleveland in a return
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: home spot, so I didn't like that, and Bybee's matchup
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 5: numbers were a little bit worse than Waka's were. But
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: it seemed like an under, and it seemed like a
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: Kansas City first five, and I was correct about both, and.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: Neither were on my card.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 5: Now, Cleveland might not be in a great spot here
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 5: because they did just lose a seven-game win streak, I
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 5: think is what this is.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: So you know I talk about that.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 5: When a team loses a win streak, a lot of
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: times it'll hang them over into the next game. However,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: the other things that I've said are when a team
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 5: returns home and they lose, a lot of times.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: They bounce back.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 5: That's the spot that Cleveland is in. When a team
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: gets shut out at home, a lot of times they
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 5: bounce back. Cleveland is also in that spot. So, you know,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 5: I mean, there are conflicting indicators here. Like it could
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: be a hangover spot for Cleveland or there are multiple
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 5: reasons why it could be a bounce back spot for them.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: And by the way, the Royals have also been ridiculously
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: hot recently for some reason, even though they're.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: A bad team. They've only lost one game in their last, like,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know, 11, 12 games, whatever. Pretty crazy stuff here.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 5: Looking at the pitching matchup here, though, you probably got
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: to like Cleveland to bounce back here. And Cleveland is
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 5: the team that's fighting for a playoff spot here. So
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: they're going to be more motivated here. Although, yeah, Kansas City,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: you know, they get to play spoiler here. That did
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 5: help them remain motivated against Detroit. And they did basically
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 5: end Detroit season. So they could, I guess, theoretically kind
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: of try to do the same thing against Cleveland here.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: Kansas City only used one relief pitcher yesterday, but their
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: bullpen is bad, so I would not deal with their bullpen.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: Cleveland only used two guys out of theirs. Cleveland is
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen. They're 14th.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 5: Kansas City is dead last. However, as I always keep qualifying,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: that's in whip, but the A's are still the worst bullpen. Hitting-wise,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: neither team is really that good. Kansas City, though, they've
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 5: moved up to 15th, tied with the Yankees after scoring
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: a bunch of runs recently.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: They're better than Cleveland offensively, probably.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: Cleveland's 28th, but like I said yesterday, I like the
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: under because Kansas City, I mean, they're not a good
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 5: offense on the road. Kansas City's not a good offense
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 5: at all. Excuse me, Cleveland's not a good offense at all.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 5: Kansas City's not good on the road, so this does
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 5: look like it's an under type of series, and yesterday's
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 5: was an under type of game.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't really want to deal with the under in
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: this one, though.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 5: Kansas City going with a bullpen game with Daniel Lynch
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: IV listed as their starter.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: Although he does have good numbers. He's been.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: pretty good this season he's been kind of less good
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: since they've kind of moved him to like an opener
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 5: type of uh type of uh pitcher here whatever you
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: want to call it an opener type of role what
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 5: I would say though is he might not even be
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 5: the first one to pitch in this game for them
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: so what I would say is if you're gonna play
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 5: this game I would not pick a starter for Kansas
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: City I would just pick Griffin must start for Cleveland
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 5: because he will start for them um and that will
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 5: be part of the handicap.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: So Kansas City's basically going with a bullpen game.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: Lynch, his numbers against Cleveland, by the way, were kind
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: of mediocre, so I just don't really love this Kansas
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: City pitching setup here much at all. I would prefer
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 5: to be on Foster Griffin here against a Kansas City
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: bullpen game. Griffin's had a good season, just came on
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 5: the scene from out of nowhere, man, at the age
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: of 31 and pitched really well, mostly for Washington.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: 3.19 ERA, 1.13 whip.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 5: Cleveland picked him up around the trade deadline. Griffin has
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 5: been a little bit worse as a home pitcher, 3.26
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 5: home ERA. Since Cleveland picked him up, They've won three
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 5: of his four starts. They've won all three of his
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: recent starts, his last three. He was bad in his
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: first outing with Cleveland, but he was actually pretty good
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: in his last three. Struggled with the walks a little
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 5: bit at Coors Field, but he wasn't too bad in
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: that one. He picked up a win in all these
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 5: last three starts, so he seems to be kind of
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 5: back in form here. He's not pitching terribly, but you
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: do have to worry about his innings count here. even
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 5: though he's an older guy, kind of. He just hasn't
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 5: thrown this many innings before in the majors, although my
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: guess is, I don't know, but guys like him, maybe
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 5: he was pitching in the Japanese leagues or something, and
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: if so, then maybe he is a little bit more
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 5: used to throwing a decent amount of innings here.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I'd have to look at what it's like.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 5: Background is. He does have a pretty low hit rate here.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 5: Doesn't really walk that many guys either. His strikeout rate
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: is okay. Doesn't allow too many home runs, though.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: Whatever.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 5: He's got a pretty good strikeout per nine here, though,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 5: or strikeout walk ratio. I mean, strikeout per nine is
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 5: also pretty good, though. Both of those numbers are pretty good.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 5: Against Kansas City, Hasn't been that good, though, but it's
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: only 15 at-bats, and they don't have any extra base
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: hits against them, but they've hit them for contact. It's
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 5: only six guys. They have a. 333 average against them..
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 5: 708 OPS, though, so no real power hitting here.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: Four strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 5: So, yeah, I'll just lean Cleveland in this one. Money
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 5: seems to agree with that. 80% of tickets, 91% of
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 5: the cash on them. You've got to lay minus. 150
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 5: sort of. You might be able to lay in the minus. 140s,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 5: it's a low total with money coming in on the
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 5: under the totals at seven and a half. So money
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: seems to like the under here, uh, which, you know,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 5: isn't really a great sign for the favorite, but the
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: money is coming in on Cleveland here. Um, you might,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 5: you could turn it into a minus one run line too.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: If you want to get the price down, but a
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: Cleveland run line at home, or they might not bat
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: in the ninth inning. I, you know, I don't know
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: if I love that necessarily, but I do think Cleveland
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: probably gets the job done here in this game. Where
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: are we looking here? What are we looking at? Where's
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: the American League? How did I lose that? This thing
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: is all over the place here, man. Oh, here it is.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: I was like, this is the American League. Yeah, here
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: it is.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 5: All right, but yeah, Cleveland, I mean, you might just
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 5: be able to play the money line, but then maybe
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 5: that is the way I would do that. It's a
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: little bit juicy around like minus 140. Oh, actually, I
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 5: only have four games left to talk about, it looks like, because...
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 5: All right, I'll be right back, and then I'll talk
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 5: about the rest of these.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about the couple of NFL preseason games and
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: a couple of WNBA games too, but I don't have
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: any plays there, but I will give out my college
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: football play one more time here, although you've got to
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: go back and watch my show to really see the
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: analysis for it or see my quick analysis I'm going
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: to put up on IG shortly. I'll be back.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 5: Yep, inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 5: an 0-7 run over the last two days. After tonight,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 5: it was just complete bullshit.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: So that's how I'm going to start off this show.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: Horrible Sunday.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: 1-5.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: never seen anything like this. With the slump continuing. Two
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4. Have
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: not had a good season, man. With weekends.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: Slump.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 4: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: after the worst day that I could possibly have. Back
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: with you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 5: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 5: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 5: years doing this.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 4: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: than potentially end it all. All right, San Diego, Tampa Bay.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay was in a return home spot yesterday, which
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 5: is a negative spot typically, but I still thought they
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 5: had a big matchup edge in that game yesterday with
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: Shane McClanahan going against whoever.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 4: The hell it was.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: Who was it for San... I think it was Casey Mize.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 5: Mize not pitching very well for San Diego, really. Now,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 5: second game back home for Tampa Bay. San Diego probably
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: does have more motivation here because San Diego's in the
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 5: thick of the wild card racers, Tampa Bay, there's no
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 5: way they're going to miss the playoffs.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? They still have a big
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: lead in the AL East. Like I said yesterday, they're
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: hoping the Yankees and Red Sox are just going to
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: split that series to hold them both back behind Tampa here.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: We will see about that. As far as the bullpen usage,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: San Diego has the better of these two bullpens. Tampa
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: Bay used three guys yesterday. San Diego used three as well.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is ranked higher in bullpen. They're ranked third,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: but their ERA is above four. San Diego is the
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. They got Mason Miller, man.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're number nine in bullpen, but their ERA
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 5: is significantly better than Tampa's. So San Diego has the
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 5: bullpen edge. Tampa is the better offense. They're ranked sixth.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 5: tied with the White Sox in Pittsburgh. San Diego's been better,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 5: like I said, since the All-Star break. They moved up
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 5: to number 23 after they were dead last for a.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: While, so their offense is doing better.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is very good at home, so I will
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 5: say that. They're one of the best home teams in baseball,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 5: and we have kind of significant home road splits here.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 5: San Diego is significantly worse on the road, and Tampa
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 5: Bay is way better at home, so the home road
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 5: splits definitely favor Tampa Bay. in this series as far
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 5: as how well these teams play in home versus away.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 5: Walker Bueller is pitching for San Diego. You look at
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching matchup here, it looks like it does
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 5: favor Tampa Bay. I'm not totally convinced that it does.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 5: Bueller's not that good, though. A 4.63 ERA, 1.35 whip.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 5: He's never really been able to kind of turn his
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: career back around after the surgeries.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: He's had, and he's not good on the road.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 5: 5.21 road era so you take him out of the
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 5: pitcher friendly environment in san diego and his numbers get
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 5: worse it makes sense he's been okay he's been pretty
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: good actually in his last few starts really the over
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 5: the course of august he's been good but really his
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 5: last three starts have all been pretty good so he
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 5: is in better form right now so i will give
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 5: him that um not really striking out a lot of
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 5: guys but the rest of his numbers are pretty good
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: here in his recent starts he's got a somewhat decent
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 5: hit rate on the season his walk rate is kind
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: of questionable and his strikeout rate isn't really that great
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 5: strikeout or not or strikeout walk ratio is not really
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: that good but it's gotten better actually than what he
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 5: was doing the last few seasons so he has improved
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 5: a little bit uh maybe it's just being able to
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 5: go out there and actually pitch consistently has helped him
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 5: out after you know last year he was on multiple
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 5: different teams and couldn't really stay healthy numbers still not
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 5: great overall but his numbers have been a little bit
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: better this year um His strikeout per nine is a
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 5: little bit better as well, though it's definitely not what
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 5: it once was. Buehler against Tampa, though, he has been
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 5: good against Tampa. In 45 career at-bats,. 222 average,. 693 OPS,.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 5: 622 strikeout walk ratio, so he doesn't have a bad
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 5: matchup here. Nick Martinez is pitching for Tampa Bay. Good
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 5: numbers on the season, better than Buehler's by far.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: 2.93 RA, 1.1 whip. However....
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 5: As I keep saying, the advanced analytics guys don't like
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 5: Martinez because he pitches to contact. He doesn't really strike
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: guys out. He's also not as good at home, 3.87
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 5: home ERA. So for whatever reason, he's almost two runs
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 5: worse at home.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 4: I don't know why that is.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 5: He was really good last time on the road, though,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 5: at Baltimore. He had six shutout innings against them with
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 5: one hit allowed. So that was a good start for him,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 5: and he didn't throw many pitches either. Start prior to that,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 5: he was really bad at home. last two home starts
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 5: have actually not been good so Nick Martinez has not
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 5: been good at home recently overall numbers here his hit
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 5: rate's not too bad he really doesn't walk anybody and
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 5: that's why his whip is so low he doesn't strike
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 5: anybody out either and that's why the advanced analytics guys
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 5: don't like him extremely low strikeout rate from him and
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 5: this year it's been even lower than what he usually
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: posts his strikeout walk ratio though is actually one of
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 5: the better ones that he's posted in his career though
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 5: because his walks have just been Almost nonexistent. He's just
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 5: not walking, guys. San Diego does not have great numbers
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 5: against him. An 80 at-bats, 225 average, 629 OPS, 10-5
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio. Again, it's really just that he doesn't
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 5: strike anybody out, so that's why that ratio's not that good.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 5: It's a tough game to figure out, man. I'm thinking
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 5: probably the under might be what makes the most sense here.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 5: It looks like a very public over.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: 89% of tickets on the over. 88% of the cash
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: on the over. So the money looks like it's slightly
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: indicating towards the under and going anti-public here. And the
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: odds makers kind of think so because seven and a
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: half low total on this one. The odds makers are
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: not going to put a total out there like that
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: unless they think it will be a low scoring game.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 5: So both bullpens pretty capable here too. So decent matchup,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 5: I would say, at least for both pitchers. Although both
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: pitchers are in the worst home road split though. So
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 5: that does worry me a little bit. But I think
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: under might make the most sense here, under the 7.5.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: The money is indicating towards.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: San Diego as well.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 5: 84% of tickets, 82% of the cash on Tampa Bay.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 5: They're around minus 130 here. I don't have a great
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 5: feel for the side, but San Diego is the more
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 5: motivated team here potentially, again, because they're just trying to
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 5: make the playoffs at all, whereas Tampa Bay is definitely
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 5: already in. But I don't love the home road splits
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 5: as far as these two teams.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Like Tampa's just.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 5: They're not a team you really want to fade at home,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 5: and this is a really good reason to do so.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 5: And I'm not sure there's a great reason to do
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 5: it here. And Martinez generally has been better than Buehler. So, yeah,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to do it. But I think
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 5: if you force me to give it a play on
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 5: that game, I would say the under. All right, Texas
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 5: and Milwaukee. Milwaukee won yesterday, even though they were not
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 5: in the greatest spot, returning home from a quick road trip, though,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 5: and Texas being a more desperate team. Milwaukee's got an
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 5: eight-game lead in the NL Central again, but Milwaukee, they're
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 5: still trying to compete with the Dodgers for, you know,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 5: the number one overall seed, whatever. If Milwaukee has to
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: go on the road to play the Dodgers in the playoffs,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 5: is that even.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: A bad thing?
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 5: I keep saying Milwaukee, they keep winning games when they
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 5: have to go to L.A., so going on the road
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 5: to L.A. doesn't seem like it's that bad of a
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 5: thing if that happens to them. Anyway, Milwaukee won yesterday 6-1.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 5: They're the better team over Texas, but Texas is going
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 5: to be in kind of desperation mode here. They're trying
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 5: to make the playoffs. They're trying to win their division.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is definitely going to make the playoffs. Uh, so
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 5: Texas has more motivation theoretically for that reason. Texas used
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers yesterday. Milwaukee is the better bullpen. They
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 5: only use two guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Milwaukee
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 5: number five, but they have, I think they're the third
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 5: best bullpen at this point.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: Their ERA is really good at this point in the
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: low threes.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 5: Texas has been a very disappointing bullpen. I liked backing
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 5: them last year. They were a pretty good bullpen to
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 5: back last year. This year, their 20th, very disappointing. Um,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 5: Not to sound like Trump or anything. In the mid-fours, not.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: Great for their ERA there. Texas is not a good
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: offense either.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 5: They're number 22, although their numbers, I think, are a
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 5: bit better on the road, away from their home pitcher-friendly park.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is a legit offense, though. They're ranked fifth, so
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is the better bullpen and the better offense here.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 5: And Texas is going with Cal Quantrill in this game.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 5: He's got good numbers on the season, man. I don't
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 5: even know how.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: 2.9 ERA, 1.14 WIP. It's just crazy what he's been doing, man.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 5: Looking at his overall numbers, the numbers that he's posted
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 5: throughout his career. He's been a very mediocre pitcher throughout
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 5: his career, and all of a sudden he's pitching well
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 5: right now.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: And some of these numbers have come out of the bullpen.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: Some have been as a starter. It looks like right
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: now they just turn him into a starter.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 5: And he hasn't even allowed a run over his last
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 5: 13 innings, and he hasn't walked anybody over that span
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 5: either with 11 strikeouts and 10 hits allowed.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: He's dealing, man. And one of those was against Washington.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: They're a pretty legit offense. I was at home, though.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 5: The other was against Anaheim. I mean, I'm not going
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 5: to really put that much weight into that. Anaheim sucks.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 5: offensively and whatever. But yeah, Quantrill's actually in good form
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 5: right now. His strikeout walk ratio is really good this month.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 5: His ERA is below one this month. He has a
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 5: pretty good hit rate on the season. His walk rate's
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 5: not too bad either. He doesn't really strike anybody out, though.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 5: So his strikeout walk ratio is not really that good.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 5: It's okay, though, because he doesn't really walk anybody. His
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine is still not impressive.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really strike anybody out.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 5: So I do think he's not going to continue to
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 5: pitch this well, given what we've seen out of him
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 5: throughout his career. And maybe he won't do well here
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 5: because Milwaukee has been able to hit him. They have
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 5: 51 at-bats against him. 294 average, 800 OPS. So I
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 5: don't really love Quantrill, the way he matches up here,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 5: although he's in good form. Shane Drohan is pitching for Milwaukee.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 5: He's kind of fallen off, man. He had a pretty
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 5: good season for the most part, but his numbers have
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 5: gotten worse recently. 3.84 ERA, 1.29 whip. And I don't
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 5: think it's because his innings pitch count is that high
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 5: because it's not.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 4: He's just started to pitch worse recently. He's been struggling.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 5: This month with an ERA close to 6. 15 to
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 5: 12 strikeout walk ratio. Too many hits allowed too. Not
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 5: really good here. His hit rate's just okay on the season.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's still not too bad. His strikeout rate
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 5: is also decent. So he's just too hittable recently for
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: the most part. His strikeout walk ratio is not too bad.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: Close to 3.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per 9 is close to 9. So those
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 5: numbers are not bad. He's just been too hittable recently,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 5: and he's got to pitch better if he wants his
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 5: mug shot to finally get up here on ESPN.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: I have no idea why ESPN doesn't have a picture
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: of him still.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 5: Drohan, by the way, he is unfamiliar to Texas, though,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 5: so he might actually pitch well in this game with
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 5: the unfamiliarity here, but if you want to base this
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 5: on current form, you're going to want to play Texas.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 5: If you're looking at current form here, you'd be leaning
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 5: towards Cal Quantrill in this one, and That is the
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 5: way the money's coming in. Milwaukee's got 90% of tickets,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 5: 52% of the cash, so a strong market read towards Texas.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: They're a pretty big underdog.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee opened minus 170, and now they're minus 150-something. If
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 5: you're going to take the shot with Texas, I would
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 5: do it in the first five, though. I don't think
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 5: you want to deal with their bullpen. They're not the
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 5: better bullpen. So I don't really disagree with that, really. Texas, like,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 5: Maybe even plus a half run or something in the
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 5: first five might be a decent price there.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: Wouldn't disagree.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 5: Quantrill's in the better form than Drohan, and Texas should
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 5: be the more motivated team here. But Milwaukee's the better team,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 5: and they do have some matchup edges here. Generally, I
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 5: think Drohan might be the better pitcher than Quantrill, but
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 5: current form is not on his side here. The money's
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 5: really indicating on the over here. Total's around 7.5 or
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 5: 8 here. I kind of understand that. I mean, these
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 5: pitchers are not really that great in this game. So
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 5: maybe the over does kind of make sense. But I
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: don't really want to back Texas either just because Quantra's
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 5: bad matchup numbers. So I think the matchup, like just
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 5: looking at the specific matchup with Drohan being unfamiliar, I
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: think that does give him a little bit of an
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 5: edge here.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. It's a tough game to figure out.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: I don't want to deal with it. Baltimore at the A's.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 5: I liked the A's in the first five yesterday. I
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 5: don't think they did it, though. They lost 4-3 in
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 5: the full game, but I don't think they were winning
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: at the end of five either.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: No, they were not. So whatever.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 5: A's out-hit Baltimore in the game yesterday, though. And Lopez
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: didn't pitch that bad in the game, but whatever. The
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 5: A's lost again.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: What else is new?
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 5: Neither of these teams are really going anywhere, although Baltimore
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 5: is the better team.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: Baltimore used four elite pitchers yesterday.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 5: The A's also used four. Bullpen-wise, Baltimore's definitely better. They're
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 5: number 10. They're a decent bullpen. The A's ranked second worst,
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 5: but they're the worst bullpen. Their ERA is horrible, 5.61. Yeah,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 5: so big bullpen edge for Baltimore in this matchup. The
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 5: A's have had the somewhat better offense. They're number 14.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 5: Baltimore's 17, tied with Philly, but it is close. Shane
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 5: Baugh's getting the start for Baltimore here.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: He's been okay. 4.04 ERA, 1.35 whip isn't really that good.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 5: He's... somewhat better on the road in some ways, even
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 5: though his ERA is worse on the road. His opponent
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 5: batting average is better on the road, but I wouldn't
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 5: say he's necessarily that much better or worse home or away.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 5: But one thing is, Baltimore's not been winning his games.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 5: They've lost his last seven games, so that's not good,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 5: although some of it isn't really his fault. He's not
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 5: getting a lot of run support here. His strikeout walk
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 5: ratio has actually been pretty good this month, so it's
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 5: not really all his fault.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 4: He's pitching somewhat okay here.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 5: Looking at his overall numbers on the season, his hit
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 5: rate is too high, though his walk rate is okay.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is okay. Strikeout walk ratio, therefore, is okay.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine is all right or okay. His
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: numbers against the A's are pretty good, though. 35 at-bats,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 5: 200 average, 643 OPS allowed. 9-2 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 5: Boz does have a decent matchup here. But remember, this
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 5: is in this A's stadium that's very hitter-friendly, so you
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 5: have to check how many fly balls does Boz give up. Well,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 5: he does give up a lot of fly balls, but
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 5: he hasn't really given up a lot of home runs, though.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: So that's interesting. He's a fly ball pitcher, which might
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: not fly in a stadium like this, but he's got
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: good numbers against the A's, and he doesn't allow that
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: many home runs, so he might be okay.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 5: In this one, I know yesterday's game went way under
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 5: the total. Jack Perkins is getting the start for the A's.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 5: Not a good season for him. 6.68 ERA, 1.48 whip.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 5: I still think he's not quite as bad as his
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 5: numbers make him look, but he struggles at home. 7.56
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 5: home ERA, that's not good. He's made some bullpen appearances here.
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: He's got good strikeout stuff, I'll tell you that, but
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 5: he walked too many guys in his last outing. He's
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 5: been too hittable in a lot of cases here. On
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 5: the season, his hit rate's definitely too high. His walk
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 5: rate is not great. His strikeout rate is good, though.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is high. So his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 5: is somewhat okay because the amount of strikeouts is so high.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 5: So he's able to fool hitters at the major league level.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 5: He's from Kokomo, Indiana, though.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: Not a very tropical location. Aruba, Jamaica, ooh, I want
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: to take you. Not to Sacramento. We're fly balls, fly
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: out of the yard. He's got a good strikeout per nine, though. Perkins.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: Numbers against Baltimore are not good, though. 13 at-bats,. 308 average,.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 5: 896 OPS, 5-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. Mostly not good, except
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 5: the ratio's good here. But it's a small sample size, right?
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: 13 at-bats. But Baltimore's been able to hit him pretty well, so...
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 5: I think I'd probably have to leave Baltimore in this one.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 5: There's not a whole lot going on here. Baltimore is
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 5: a very public side, though. 93% of tickets, but it
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 5: looks like the money might be on them, too. 94%
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 5: of the cash. Minus 140-something is the price. I don't
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 5: love a price like that as a road favorite, but
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 5: they're the better team. I think they probably do have
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 5: the matchup edge. with Boz against Perkins, probably the better pitcher,
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 5: plus the better matchup numbers.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: Seems to do better in fly ball stadiums.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 5: So Perkins, by the way, I forgot to mention, he
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 5: is a, you could tell that he's not that good
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 5: in the stadium, right? His home numbers are terrible, but
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 5: he does allow too many home runs for sure. His
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: home run rate is bad and he allows a lot
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 5: of fly balls. So he does not pitch well in
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 5: this stadium.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: So yeah. And Baltimore does have the better bullpen as well. Uh,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: so yeah.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 5: I would, I'd be leaning Baltimore there, although the money
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 5: seems like it's actually kind of disagreeing with that at
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 5: this point. The money's also somewhat indicating towards an under 9.5
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 5: in that one. I mean, I guess the argument for
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 5: it would be both pitchers might actually do okay here.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 5: Perkins is at least more talented than what his numbers
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 5: would suggest, and Boz is maybe okay enough, but I
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 5: don't know. If you're going to go under in this game,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 5: you've got to do it first five only, but I
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: would not want to be doing that. Philadelphia and Anaheim
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: the last game up Philadelphia is a massive favorite here
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 5: I mean they have a much better starting pitcher on
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 5: the mound here and Anaheim is not good Philly is
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 5: still trying to make sure they get a wild card
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 5: spot here so there's a little bit of motivation on
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 5: their side too maybe they still overlook Anaheim though yesterday
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 5: I think I was correct again Philadelphia I said Anaheim
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 5: first five in the game yesterday was worth a look
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 5: there with Detmer, who I really like, against Painter. Both
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 5: pitchers actually did all right. I think I was correct
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 5: maybe about the under in that game yesterday as well.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 5: But Philadelphia wound up winning the game really late in
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 5: the game after Anaheim was winning, I think, 3-0 in
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 5: the first inning. Then I think they never scored again,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 5: and Philly won the game 4-3.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: I think is what it was.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 5: Or 5-3. I don't know if I'm going under or not.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 5: But yeah, Anaheim's not playing well. They've lost four or
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 5: five games in a row. Philly should win this game,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 5: but I don't know, man. Anaheim, are they staying at
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 5: home here?
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: Let me see.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, I know they are between yesterday and today.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 5: But yeah, they were not in a return home spot
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 5: yesterday is what I was checking.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: So yeah, there's not a whole lot.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 5: To like about Anaheim here. They used five relief pitchers yesterday. Philadelphia, though,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 5: their bullpen's not really that good. They used three guys yesterday.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's number 23 in bullpen. Philly is 17. So Philly
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 5: does have a slight edge there as well in the bullpen.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 5: Philly's the better offense. They're number 17 tied with Baltimore,
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 5: even if they're not as good on the road. Anaheim's
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 5: dead last offensively, 30th, and they're really bad at home.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 5: And it doesn't get easier for them because they do
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 5: have to face Christopher Sanchez here who has a 2.62 ERA, 1.22
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 5: whip for Philly. So his whip does indicate that his
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 5: ERA should actually be higher than it is. And he's
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 5: actually not that good on the road. 4.07 road ERA
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 5: and a 3.04 opponent.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: Batting average on the road.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: So.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 5: What I would do, if I was the Phillies manager,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 5: once we get to the playoffs, I would try to
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 5: shuffle my rotation around so that Sanchez only pitches at home.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 5: And I would make sure Luzardo pitches on the road
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 5: because Luzardo is way better on the road.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: Sanchez is way better at home. You know what I mean?
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 4: So I would try to make sure that that's how
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: it lines up. Let's see if their manager, Mattingly, I
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: think is their new manager. Let's see if he's smart
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: or not. Sanchez, I mean, he's kind of back in
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: form here. I know he gave up some runs last
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: time out against St. Louis, but he's still pitching well. Oh,
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 4: it was Sanchez in that game.
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure I did have the under in that game.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 5: Maybe not, but I think it was Sanchez, not Wheeler.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 5: My mistake, but Wheeler has been... I thought it was
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: Wheeler because he's been struggling recently.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 4: Whatever.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 5: Sanchez, his walk issues are kind of coming back a
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 5: little bit, but he's still striking out a ton of guys,
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 5: but he's also been.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: A little bit too hittable recently.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's not really that good. Usually Sanchez is
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 5: pretty hard to hit, but he's got a hit rate
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 5: of one per inning, which is.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: Not very good. His walk rate is fine on the season,
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: so he's kind of changed the way he pitches, it
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 4: looks like, which has made him more hittable but less walk-heavy.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 4: And he still strikes out a lot of guys.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 5: He's got a nice strikeout walk ratio, one of the
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 5: highest that he's had in his career, actually. And his
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine is actually the highest as well. So
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 5: whatever he's changed is pretty much still working. And Anaheim
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: has done nothing against him for the most part. They
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 5: have 19 at-bats.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: It's not a huge sample. Five hitters have faced him.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: One extra base hit, a double from Darnot. 158 average,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: 411 OPS, 6-1 Darnot.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 5: Strikeout walk ratio. So Sanchez does match up pretty well here.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's going with Ryan Johnson here.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 4: He's young. I mean, he might improve a bit, but
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 4: his numbers aren't really good here.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 5: 5.75 ERA, 1.43 whip. He is a little bit better
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 5: at home, though. 5.03 home ERA. He pitched really well
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 5: last time out at Texas. I know it's a pitcher-friendly park,
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 5: not a good offense, but he went seven shutout innings
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 5: with one hit. So maybe he's kind of coming around
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 5: a little bit, but the rest of this month for
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 5: him has not been good with a 13 to 11
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio overall. But he's been pretty hard to
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 5: hit this month though. Mostly just because that last start
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 5: was really good though. His hit rate on the season
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 5: is still pretty mediocre. His walk rate's too high. His
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate's not really that good. So there's still not
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 5: really a lot to like here. His strikeout walk ratio
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 5: is not really good. It was better last year when
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 5: he was pitching out of the bullpen, but his numbers
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 5: were still really bad last year though. His strikeout per
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 5: nine has gone way down this year, so he's a
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 5: better strikeout pitcher when he pitches in relief, so that
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 5: probably means he's going to have a tendency to strike
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 5: more people out early, and then as he tires out,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 5: he's probably not striking out as many. Johnson against Philly,
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 5: only one guy has faced him. It's Arias, who they
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 5: picked up at the trade deadline. He's two for three
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: often with two singles. No strikeouts, no walks. I mean,
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 5: Philly should probably get the win here, but... They're a
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 5: huge favorite. There's no way you can lay a price
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 5: like this. Minus 240 or whatever, 94% of tickets, 92%
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 5: of the cash on them. I wouldn't want to come
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 5: in and play Anaheim. I just don't really see any
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 5: edge here. I think Philly has the edge in every
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 5: phase of the game. You could lay the minus one
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 5: and a half run line with them, but I don't
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 5: really love it. I mean, the Republic side, I wouldn't want.
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: To do it.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 5: You might be able to go with it over in
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 5: this game, though. Johnson's just not really that good, and
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 5: Sanchez is worse on the road. So that combination of
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 5: things actually might maybe get you there, but Sanchez does
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 5: have good matchup numbers against Anaheim, though.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: I'd worry that Anaheim wouldn't put up their end of
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 4: the bargain. Johnson... Does have.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 5: Unfamiliarity against Philly, but he may not pitch well. Even
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 5: with the unfamiliarity, it might not be enough. So you
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 5: could go Philly over their team total. Maybe that is
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 5: the better way to play this. The full game total
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 5: is at eight, and the money is heavily indicating on
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 5: the over. 56% of tickets on the under, 88% of
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 5: the cash on the over. So I don't disagree with
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 5: the over here, but Sanchez might shred this lineup still.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 5: I think, yeah, what you could do is you could
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 5: just take Philly's team total over. Maybe that is the
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 5: better way to play this, but I think given what
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 5: the price is here, I think you will need them
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 5: to probably score six runs. Maybe there's a way you
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 5: could get away with five on that. They might be
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 5: able to do it, though, so maybe that is the
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 5: way I would look.
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: In that one.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 5: All right, finally, done with baseball. Too many doubleheaders and
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 5: shit here. WNBA, I don't have a whole lot with
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 5: the WNBA here. We have two games that are separated
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 5: by nine hours here in their start time. Chicago at
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 5: New York is the afternoon game on CBS. And these
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 5: teams are about to go into whatever the hell this
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 5: break is.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 4: That the WNBA is about to go into. There's going
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: to be no WNBA for.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know, a while, like about a month, which is,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on with that. And then
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 5: there will only be a few games left and then
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 5: the playoffs. The Liberty, they're coming off losing to Golden
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 5: State here at home. They're staying at home. Maybe a
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 5: decent bounce back spot for them. They do play Minnesota next,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 5: but it's not until after the break. So you got
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 5: to think the Liberty are going to focus on Chicago.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 5: And in fact, they lost to Chicago in Chicago the
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 5: last time.
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: And I talked about how that.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 5: Might be a look ahead because they had a big
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 5: game against Indiana after that.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: So I think maybe they got caught looking ahead in Chicago.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 4: And the last time they played Chicago here at home,
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: they barely got by them and only beat them by one.
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: So the Liberty might take Chicago a bit more seriously
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 4: here for that reason. Um, New York's definitely the better
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 4: team here. Although Chicago probably won't overlook them either. Chicago
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 4: will probably come to play as they just lost to Connecticut.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: So they didn't play well in that game either. Um,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: I don't have a great feel for this one.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 5: Let me switch to WNBA here. The money's coming in
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 5: on Chicago. They're plus 8.5 here at this point. It
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 5: looks like the line did drop a little bit from 9.5.
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 5: 78% of tickets, 90% of the cash on Chicago. So
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 5: money coming in that way. I don't have a great
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 5: feel for that. The money's coming in on the under.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 5: I think the under makes some sense, even though the
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 5: total is high at 179 or whatever. Both of these
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 5: teams are known for kind of playing fast and... I'm
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 5: not sure that Chicago's defense is really that good. I'm
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 5: not sure New York's is really that good either. But
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 5: it might be a game where both teams show up
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 5: and kind of focus based on how the scheduling spot
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 5: lines up. So I guess there is that, which focus
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 5: usually does mean better defense.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: But I don't want to play this game at all, obviously.
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: Money indicating on Chicago plus the points and on the under.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: Do what you want with that info.
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 5: My lean would slightly be under in that game, but
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 5: I'm not really a totals guy in any sport besides baseball.
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 5: And I know I have a couple of baseball totals today.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: And I don't know.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I just don't really have anything else on that game.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 5: Toronto at Phoenix. Toronto played yesterday, so they're in a
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 5: bad spot. Although, you know, that's going to affect the line. Like,
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 5: Phoenix is going to be a heavier favorite because Toronto
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 5: played yesterday. And Toronto's playing a third game in four days,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 5: all in different cities.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 4: Ridiculous. You know that's not a good thing.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 5: They just got smoked by Vegas in the last game,
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 5: which I'm laughing about it because Toronto's focusing on their
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 5: stupid pronoun mascots and trying to probably.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: propaganda.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 5: Is children which is disgusting so I hope this is
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 5: a failure franchise Toronto here but it's a bad spot
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 5: for them here they're on a back-to-back third game of
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 5: four days all in different cities going into the break
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 5: here they might just be looking ahead to the break
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: at this point I don't know but I do lean
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 5: Phoenix in this one. People are going to look at
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 5: this and see Phoenix is not... really good record-wise here.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 5: Phoenix has lost four games in a row, so why
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 5: is anybody going to really want to lay nine points
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 5: with Phoenix here, you know what I mean? But I
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 5: still think that's the right way to look at this game,
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 5: although the money doesn't seem to agree. It looks like
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 5: they're public. 94% of the tickets on Phoenix, 90% of
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 5: the cash. It's still the only way I would lean here, man.
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 5: It looks like a misleading line. Part of the reason, though,
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 5: for it is Toronto has no rest, though. That is
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 5: factored into the line, so I know that means the
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 5: line's going to be a little bit skewed, and you
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 5: might not really get much value there.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: But Phoenix is staying at home. They didn't have to
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: play yesterday.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 5: They've lost four games in a row, so they're probably
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 5: going to show up here for that reason. I'm guessing
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 5: if the line is this high, it probably means Plum
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 5: is playing.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: Let me see here. No, she's not. Plum is out,
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 4: and Phoenix is still this heavy a favorite. Holy shit, man.
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 4: Toronto's bad, dude.
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 5: Toronto does have some injuries here, by the way, to
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 5: Sabali and Mabry. I think they're two key injuries here.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: They've both been out for a while now, though, I think.
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 5: And Kondi, I guess, is also out. Not an injury, though.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 4: I don't even know.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 5: I don't know what the deal is with that. But
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 5: I think that's not really that important. But those other
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 5: players are more important. So the injury situation is, I guess,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 5: bad enough on Toronto that there's still this much of
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 5: an underdog, even though apparently Plum is not playing for
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 5: Phoenix here.
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 4: It's a mess of a game. A lot of injuries
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 4: going on. Oh, now the money's all.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 5: Over Phoenix all of a sudden. 63% of tickets, 88%
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Phoenix. Thank you for updating odds logic.
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 5: So now the money is agreeing with me.
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 5: So if I was going to, I think if I
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 5: was going to play either of these games today, that's
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 5: what I would do. I would lay the points at
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 5: Phoenix and, Really, it kind of looks too easy to
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 5: play the underdog in that one, given that both teams
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 5: have bad records. Nobody's going to want to come in
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 5: at late points with a team with a record like that.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 4: But yes, I would lean Phoenix in that one. Mr. Pinsey,
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 5: All right, and then we have NFL preseason. To finish
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 5: this off here, I talked about college football last night,
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 5: so you can go check that show out. As far
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 5: as the NFL preseason, I'm going to have to go
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 5: listen to what I said yesterday to see how many
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 5: of these games I was actually correct about. See if
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 5: I become a preseason guy.
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. I mean, I was definitely right
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: about the under in Seattle, Kansas City.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 5: And by the way, that game was a tie because
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 5: ties can happen in the preseason. There's no overtime, I guess,
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 5: to help avoid injuries or whatever.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 5: And I know I was right about the over. I
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 5: think I was in the Arizona Green Bay game. I
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 5: think I said over there. I don't know what my
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 5: other opinions were. But anyway, today we have Detroit at Indianapolis. Indianapolis,
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 5: they got smoked in their last game by the Falcons,
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 5: and the Falcons were a laughingstock after their first game.
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 5: So you kind of got to think the Colts might
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 5: be kind of pissed about that, staying at home and
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 5: might bounce back here. I think the majority of the
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 5: public is probably going to come in on the Lions here.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that is the case. The Lions are a super public.
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 4: I can gauge where the public is most of the time.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 4: 79% of tickets on Detroit.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, without looking at the screen like this, I mean,
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 5: 70% of the cash on Indy, and Indy's favored at
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 5: three and a half here or so, or four. And,
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 5: you know, the public's going to look at that and think,
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 5: I'm getting points with the better team in Detroit, and
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 5: Indy just got killed by Atlanta. So it looks really
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 5: easy to play Detroit here, but I would not do that. Detroit,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 5: they're 1-1 in the preseason. Dan Campbell usually seems like
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 5: he tries to win, but I think he's also not
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 5: going to be that stupid. I really don't think Goff
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 5: is playing in this game or whatever, and if he does,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 5: it's going to be very brief.
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 4: Dobbs got a lot of the snaps last time. He
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 4: looked pretty good.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 5: He had that one huge rushing touchdown. Dobbs' experience, I
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 5: don't know, man. They're probably going to take a long
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 5: look at Altmeier in this game. I would assume that
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 5: Altmeier is probably going to get a lot of the
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 5: snaps in this game because they just drafted him and
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 5: they want to see what he can do, but maybe
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 5: that's not going to be a necessarily great thing for them. Indy,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 5: they're shuffling their quarterback rotation around. They move Riley Leonard
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 5: up to their number two spot, and I think you're
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 5: going to see more of him in this game because
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 5: I think Indy, they want him to be like their
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 5: next guy in line at this point.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: He's looked decent, I think, at times, so I think
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: you're going to see a lot of him in this game.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson, I don't know, man. He's mistake-prone, doesn't know
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: when to run, doesn't know when to not run, I
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 4: guess I should say.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 5: And then they do have Easton Stick in their quarterback
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 5: rotation as well.
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: He's just an experienced backup, basically. That's what he is.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 4: But I don't know, man.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 5: This quarterback rotation might be a bit better. Daniel Jones,
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 5: I'm assuming, probably won't be in this game, but I
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: don't know. Colts quarterback rotation looks like it might be
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 5: a little bit better and maybe a little bit more
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 5: motivation from them after what happened in the last game. So, yeah,
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 5: I'll agree with what the money's saying here. I'll agree
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 5: with Indy, but you could have gotten them at 1.5,
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 5: and now they're 3.5. I don't think I'd really want
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 5: to lay that number, but I'd lean into it. I mean,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 5: you could play the money line or something or money
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 5: line parlay it with another money line.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Charles, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: My banner thing is not– or, I'm sorry, my comment thing.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 5: I mean, it wasn't working. It wasn't allowing me to
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 5: bring up the comments. I don't know what's going on
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 5: with that. Then we have Chicago, Tennessee is the other
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 5: game here. Chicago– They've looked pretty good in the preseason,
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 5: I think, but actually they didn't look that good against
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 5: the Bengals. They looked really good against the Browns. They
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 5: didn't look good against the Bengals. Maybe that means they
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 5: will kind of bounce back here. Tennessee has actually looked good.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 5: Tennessee has won both of their games, but they beat
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 5: a bunch of backups for the 49ers, and then they
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 5: beat a Seahawks team that I just don't think was
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 5: really trying that much. So I'm not really going crazy
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 5: here about what the Titans have done here.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 5: It seems like the Titans are trying to win, though,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 5: and they do have their new coach there. I believe
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 5: they're the only team playing today that has a new coach, right? Titans,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure. So that sometimes is more motivation in
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 5: the preseason. As far as what the Titans are going
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 5: to do with their quarterback rotation in this one, I
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 5: think Cam Ward did play a bit in one of
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 5: the games, so I don't think he's going to play
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 5: in this game.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: Trubisky looks like he might.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 5: Be hurt, although he is a very experienced quarterback, but
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 5: I don't love him necessarily, and then it's going to
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 5: be Will Levis, I guess. He's an experienced quarterback, but
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 5: to me, it doesn't look like Tennessee is really going
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 5: to be.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're really going to be going all
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: out in this game, to be honest.
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 5: And then Hendon Hooker, maybe he'll get an extended look,
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 5: but I don't know, man.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: Chicago, they're going to be going.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 5: Probably with Tyson Bajan here again, who I actually like.
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 4: I actually think he's good. And, you know, I.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 5: Think he could easily be a starter somewhere. And then
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 5: they have Case Keenum. Both of those guys have experience
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 5: in this one. Keenum, very experienced.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 4: But he's old. And then Miller Moss.
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 5: Maybe they'll use Moss a bit in this game because
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 5: he's younger and they might want to test him out
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 5: more here. I don't think Caleb Williams is really going
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 5: to see a lot, if any, playing time in this one.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man.
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 5: Kind of a tough game to really figure out here.
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 4: The money's indicating on Tennessee. 63% of tickets on Chicago.
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 5: 55% of the cash on Tennessee at minus two and
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 5: a half. Both totals are low, by the way. I mean, again,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 5: it's preseason. Usually you get low totals in the preseason.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 5: You got to try to gauge when the offenses are
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 5: going to go vanilla, though, and when they're not. I
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 5: think that's tough to gauge here in these matchups. I
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 5: kind of lean towards the Bears in this game, to
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 5: be honest.
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 4: I don't really love.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 5: Looking towards Tennessee when they've won two games already and
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 5: they probably look better than they really are. It looks
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 5: kind of too easy to take the points for Chicago though.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 5: And you know, Chicago is just going to be the
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 5: public side because everybody considers them to be the better team.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 5: And they are like once the regular season starts, even
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 5: though I'm not high in Chicago whatsoever, they're the better
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 5: team between these two.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: So whatever.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 5: Oh, and of course we have a stupid international game
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 5: coming up in week one, by the way, Mr. Thursday night,
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 5: I'll have to return when this happens in a couple
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 5: of weeks. Um, it's going to be on Netflix from Melbourne, Australia,
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 5: San Francisco and the Rams.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 5: Isn't that just great? The California schools get to go
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 5: out there. It's a little bit less travel for the
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 5: West coast teams to go out there. I guess I
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 5: don't fucking know, man. Anyway, that's going to do it
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 5: for this show. Not a whole lot doing with the
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 5: preseason here. no, uh, there've been a lot of scammers
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 5: on dating sites. I watched the Tindler, the Tinder Swindler documentary,
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 5: and I did not feel bad for those women. I'm sorry,
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 5: but they were, they knew what they were. They were
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 5: basically like using those men for money. Anyway, they were
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 5: stupid apps. Those women are so stupid. And then at
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 5: the end, the way that movie ends is hilarious. Like
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 5: he winds up like not being in prison and dating
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 5: like an Israeli supermodel while the main woman, um, is
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 5: like on Tinder again still and hasn't learned her lesson
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 5: at all.
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 4: It's so stupid. But no, I have not heard about it.
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: I don't think of it. Maybe I did hear about this.
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, nobody checks anything really. I don't know.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 4: It's ridiculous.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 5: I got to get out of here. This show's been
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 5: way too long anyway to begin with, and that's without
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 5: doing the college football. Go check out the college football show. Oh,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 5: and by the way, yeah, college football, Eastern Michigan minus
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 5: the points is my play there. The number's gone up, though.
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 5: It was eight and a half. Let me look right now.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 5: The money, I think, is still agreeing with me on this.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: Yes, it is, I believe. Wait, where's Eastern Michigan?
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 5: I don't have the screen up anymore, but yes, the
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 5: money is still agreeing.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: With me on this. It looks like you, actually, 8.5
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 4: is available at the Lion Book and at DK, so 8.5
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 4: or 9, whatever.
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 5: I mean, there's not a big difference there, so whichever.
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 5: That's my first college football play of the season, Eastern Michigan.
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: Noah Kaniga, baby. Go check out my.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 5: Show last night. I have real reasons. It's not actually biased.
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 5: I have actual reasons for having that as a play, so...
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 5: Go check that out. Go check out the college football
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 5: show that I did. The other plays today are the
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 5: under in Seattle and Toronto in baseball and the under
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 5: in Miami, Washington, although I know it's Washington's bullpen, so
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 5: I'm kind of eyeing the first five, but I want
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 5: a four if you go first five under. But again,
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 5: like I said, I'll update the description if I actually
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 5: do change that to a first five play. Because Washington's
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 5: bullpen fucking scares me, man. And it'll be the first
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 5: time I've relied.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: On them in any way this season, I think. But whatever.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tone on Twitter. Learn to Tone on Instagram.
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 5: Like, subscribe to the channel here. You'll get notified when
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 5: I go live like I did last night with college football.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 5: We're going to have a lot of football night shows.
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 5: I got to split up the work, man. It's just
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 5: way too much to cover. Especially while there's the overlap
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 5: with baseball. And then there's going to be overlap with basketball.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 4: But baseball.
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 5: It just takes way too long to cover baseball, dude.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 5: Doing the situational stuff that I do in all the
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 5: other sports, it's easier to do the quick handicaps of
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 5: the games.
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 5: Baseball, I do too much analytics shit. Yeah, I'm starting
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 5: to really hate baseball season.
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 4: What else?
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 5: We're on audio, Apple, Spreaker, Spotify. Go check it out
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 5: over there. Those numbers are actually doing all right recently.
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 5: Covered in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube.
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 4: Check that out.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 5: Patreon.com slash learn to toad. If you want to support
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 5: me that way. Loser cast every Tuesday. New York Giants
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 5: G-Spot podcast.
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it. Yes.
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 5: Peace.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 3: hold on, not tonight.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: Not now.
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold.
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: On Let me.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: me now Hold on, hold on You're still here
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 3: Now guitar solo