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The Favorites - Divisional Round NFL Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,
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  Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four
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  Speaker 1: six seven, three six nine in New York, one five
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  Speaker 1: to two seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Continent Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We are heading into divisional round of the playoffs in
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Just a crazy wild card weekend. I am
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: joined and as I am for every episode by my bff,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon Hello,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: chat in person. We are in person, so you guys
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: will all see this on video. But we've had a
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: crazy weekend here at Action Network because we have been
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: building a studio for the past several months that we
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we had hoped would be ready in September. Then October, UH,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: supply chains got the best of us and it's still
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: not entirely ready. But our video team UH and several
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: others pulled off herculean effort to launch the studio this weekend.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: So we did our Convinced Me show from the studio, You, RayBan,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Sean Kroner, Dan Velle, we're all on the studio. We
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: did Action Island from the studio yesterday, UM, a fan
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: duel show, and you and I are recording the podcast today.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Of course we get in the office today even though
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and the internet is out in the entire office, and
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: of course everything in the studio is Internet enabled, so
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: we just came back on. You and I are sitting
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: very close to each other because the lights in the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: studio still aren't working. So if you're watching this on video,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that's why it looks as awk it as it does.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: If you're listening on AMP. If you're listening to the show,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: it probably sounds great. Because we're in the studio. We're
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: gonna get to the divisional games. I want to recap
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: wild Card weekend. For me, highlight of wild Card weekend
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: has to be uh. We rented a ridiculous loft in
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the village in the city airbnbad for a few days
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: that a bunch of people were staying in. We had
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: watched parties there throughout the weekend. I'll watching the game
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: together last night the Bucks Cowboys. Matt Mitchell had under
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: forty five and a half and watching Matt Mitchell sweat
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the under forty five and a half in the last
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: five minutes when it seemed like the Cowboys were making
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: every decision they could to slow the game down and
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: the Bucks were running fucking draws to speed the game up.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Cowboys were going down with cramps or some kind of
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: injury to stop the clock even when the Bucks running
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: the draw and then the Bucks get the on side
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: kick which never happens, and then almost complete that touchdown pass.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we have Matt Mitchell with us today. Yeah,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: it was a fun weekend. It was good hang of
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: you guys. I got to meet a couple of guys
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: that we worked with that I've been met before. Definitely
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: interesting going up on Friday. I mean, Chad, you got
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: here what you got your Monday right Sunday night. So
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: I first saw Chad Monday. I was basically comed by Monday. Honestly,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: it was just wild card weekends, a lot of work
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  Speaker 1: people behind the scenes here. We did an amazing job
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  Speaker 1: putting all together, and now it's hilarious. Like I was
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: joking with a buddy, I just never would imagine five
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: years ago, when I was living in Vegas and making
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: bets that. Five years later, I be in New York
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: City Wild Car Weekend in a studio talking shows. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: I just never saw a sports betting being this mainstream.
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  Speaker 1: So very cool experience. Um. Once again, the team that
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Chad hired and put together and put this all together.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: It was truly amazing to see it be done because
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: it felt something like they had done before and all
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: these people had done before, where it was kind of
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the thing where it's like a first time from everyone
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  Speaker 1: a part of it. So pretty cool experience that is
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: very said it much better than I have. That was
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  Speaker 1: pretty amazingly done. Um, all right, Wild Card Weekend, it
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: wasn't great for us. Um, we never want to go
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: to and too know the Buck Well, we didn't go
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  Speaker 1: to and two we were one and three. The Bucks
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: was the exact decision for me. We got it A
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half didn't cover our foxhole. We
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: gave out on Tuesday Ravens plus six and a half,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: so we lost that. Bill's minus third teen was our
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: big balls. Got crushed on that. We're gonna talk about
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: that for a second. And then you did win. Simon says,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Jags plus one and a half, which turned out great
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: for us. Matt, you had an unusual circumstance during the
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Bills game. Explain what happened to you. Yeah, So the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: first half of that game was the longest first half
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: in terms of how many minutes transpired in NFL playoff
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: first half history. So my timing of my flight to
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: New York for this, the studio launch event was thrown off.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: So I was in the air for the last few
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: minutes of that game, and the internet went out on
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the plane, so I was in totally totally blacked out
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: from any information with the core and Miami has the ball.
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  Speaker 1: I am dying inside. I can't believe I got myself
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: into this position. I look and felt physically ill, and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the fight attendant eventually says, are you okay? And I said,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I need to know the final score of that Bills
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Miami game in the worst way. The game was almost
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: certainly over by that point. She goes, is this a
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: gambling thing or like a fan thing? She said that unprompted,
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  Speaker 1: I go, it's both of those things, ma'am. She looked
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  Speaker 1: genuinely concerned, walked away, got on that phone that goes
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: to the cockpit, talked for a second, Talk Talk Talk
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  Speaker 1: hung up, comes back and goes it was thirty one
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Buffalo final. I think they radioed the ground and got
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  Speaker 1: the final score. I was consumed with relief and after
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  Speaker 1: that was the happiest and best behaved passenger in airline history.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And were of course on the Cincinnati For the record,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: everyone knows we love the luck rankings from Sean Croner
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: and Nick Giffin and Billy Ward. The two games that
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: had the biggest discrepancies for luck rankings this weekend. The
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Bills should have won right based on expectations, and the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Ravens should have won. So that's why we love betting. Though, Chad,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: we talk all the time that we love the rand
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: missile football. We got brain by it like that that
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  Speaker 1: Bills won what was it seventeen nothing when it started? Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: feeling really good? Uh did the classic mistake of I
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: knew saying out loud to the group of I was
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: with all the people from Action, I said, I knew
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  Speaker 1: this was gonna be a lay up, and right then
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: it completely once I said that, well it just felt
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: that way and say like out loud, yeah, because if
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: you said that, I would have been like, dude, who
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: are you, because we don't even text during a game. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: but I'm saying, like, in your mind, you're up seventeen
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: nothing against Skyler. Skyler, You're feeling pretty good going against
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: a third tree quarterback in Miami. But that's why we
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: love football, the turnovers, all the weird bounces. I think
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  Speaker 1: they had a fourth and eighth they converted, a third
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  Speaker 1: in nineteen or a third and fifteen they convert against
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  Speaker 1: the bill. So that was a wonky game. The Ravens
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  Speaker 1: won't hurt because it felt like we nailed it. Um
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  Speaker 1: now that it felt like we were on the right
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  Speaker 1: side of it, and a one in a whatever it was.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's only happened, um twice out of eight
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  Speaker 1: playoff games that someone returned a fumble yards free touchdown.
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  Speaker 1: So um, that hurt, especially when it took the six
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  Speaker 1: and a half with us. We talked at the time
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  Speaker 1: that that was kind of the pro move of like,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: you gotta trust your instincts that keep taking the number
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  Speaker 1: that comes when it's a good number. We got the
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  Speaker 1: nine or nine and a half, we got the ten,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: we got the eight and a half, we got the
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  Speaker 1: seven and a half, All those covered. But yeah, the
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  Speaker 1: six and a half did and so that was that
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  Speaker 1: was a tough, tough one to lose when you're just
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  Speaker 1: on the right side of the whole game. And I'll
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: play like that happens Jaguars. Obviously we were going crazy.
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  Speaker 1: Chad was crazy. I was going crazy. Um, I will
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: be the first to admit. Another game we watched at
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: the Airbnb and I didn't say anything. I just said
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I gotta leave because it was three turnovers in the
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: first half. I not that I was in a bad move,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: but it was just pissing myself of like fuck, like
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I put way too much on that Jaguars one and
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: a half, two and a half, all of it. I
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: just that one just really jumped out all week where
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: it's just a man like this line does not make
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: sense because it's the Chargers, Like the Charger's gonna charger.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Get back to the hotel, go to sleep, and I
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: wake up to just never ending amounts of miss calls
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: text um from people from Action and just other people
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: I bet with and my family, um, because I've said
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: they're like I didn't know what I bet. And yeah,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: it was one of those real moments. I woke up.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: It was eight so we were good on the two
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: and a half, feeling really good in that fourth and
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: one player by Doug Peterson. That was kind of it
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: kind of felt like it came full circle of our
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: whole reason for backing them was Doug Peterson and Trevorlawrence.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Obviously he had to Peterson, yeah, but I'm saying he
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: had the four touchdowns in a row. But the reason,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: and we said this the entire week, the reason we
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: loved the Jags as home underdogs was because coaching coaching, coaching.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, we trusted Doug Peterson too,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: and it was about this very specific thing. Doug Peterson
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: will make the right decisions. Brandon Staley will not. That
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: was it. And Peterson is now six and oh as
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: a dog in the playoffs in his career, pretty pretty
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: incredible stat and he's a dog again this week. So
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: one of those things of we trusted the number, the
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: number was gonna hit. That was one of those where
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the booker is just so sharp come this time of year,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: and yeah, it felt great to get that out right,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: But definitely by far my worst bet um of the weekend,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I think chi I would agree, was that Bucks game
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: that was one of those that who knows all the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: stuff that's going on behind the scenes, But that was
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: one of those of just the first half in you
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: were like, Okay, this is a total mismatch of a
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: team that but these themselves like Dallas do and a
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: team that just seems like they quit in the books.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll eat that. And that was a terrible bet
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: terrible read by us, terrible terrible um uh uh. So
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of the themes that we're talking about now
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: are gonna come up again. One of the things we
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: decided to do every week we do foxhole, we do
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Simon says, we do exact decision, we do big balls.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Obviously gets harder and harder to do that during the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: season when there's only four games, I mean, when there's
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: few and fewer games. So this week for Divisional round,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: we're including totals in the pool of bets we can
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: choose from because you and I both we were looking
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: at lines last night and already felt like there were
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: some totals that we liked, and it's been some interesting
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: movement um in the numbers so far, so we're going
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: to include that as well. It's funny last thing, as
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: you mentioned the Jacks and I was talking to Raybon
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I think Saturday night was Sunday night at the Airbnb.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Was super fun. It was about fifteen or twenty of
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: us UM for the Bengals Ravens game. You had, you
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: had left and um and everybody like was generally on
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, and everybody was on the Joe Mixon under
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: receiving and rushing yards and in the first series he
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: had all the touches and he had like twenty yards
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: in the first series of the game, and the rest
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: of the game just disappeared and it played out exactly
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the way we wanted to play out. UM. Great weekend,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: super fun. It's so much fun to sweat these games
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: with so many people that are sort of doing it together.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: It's fun, but it's also tougher for me. It's tough
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: for me where it's like it's one of those where
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: here and when you're in a room with other people
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: that are on other bets. The same reason I hate
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: watching that sports books. It's like I feel like an
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: ass rooting against someone else's bet. And it's always that
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: weird feeling of like when I'm working with when I
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: was with there with the action guys. It was fun
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: because we're most most all of us are on the
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: same side. Um, but yeah, it was. Uh, say, my
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: most fun I had was seeing Bills fans swell out
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: that Miami game. That was just really funny to be
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: around them, just because I've been there before. You're a
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: big favorite, You're feeling so good, so confident, and just
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: like down football, the Rugs pull for a nephew. So
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: that was pretty funny. I wish Matt Mitchell was there
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: for that Bills game because it was. Honestly, that was
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: probably my favorite game in the weekend, That Bills Miami game,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: just because we already talked about Miami should not have
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: been in that game, but because football is so stupid
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: and it comes down to just a handful of plays,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: they only lost by three. So if that was just
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: an absolute wild game, Let's get to some games. Uh.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: First came up Jacksonville visiting Kansas City. Kansas City is
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: an eight and a half point favorite. The total in
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: this game right now is fifty two and a half
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: and so I want to talk about that for a
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: second because it's moved this morning. Um, it was at
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: fifty one, fifty one and a half. I unfortunately bet
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: it this morning at fifty one and a half because
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I thought it was going to go back down in
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: no joke. Two hours later is it fifty two and
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: a half. And it's interesting because all the money is
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: on the under, which concerns me, which means if it's
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: going up, some pros are coming in on the over.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: So now I'm sick to my stomach. Yeah, that's one
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: of those where I would just say be cautious. Um,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: if you can find a fifty three, you can grab it. Now.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: That's obviously Chad just talked about fifty two, fifty two
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: and a half. Those are incredibly key numbers at this point,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: So you grab a fifty three, I would but grab
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: the under under. Yeah, but at this point I would
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: say me and Chat are leaking confidence on that play.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: When we were coming into we really like to have
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: another total will give out that I really love um
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: for our fans that take this week, but to be
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: in this game new right away when this line came out,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: me and Chad we're going to like the Jags. We
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: love the Jacks on the spot on the simple fact
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: it's mahomes bigger than a touchdown or even bigger than
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: three point favorite. We know all the data backs up.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: You fade my homes in these positions, and then that
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: you like to fade the one seats. Historically, the one
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: seeds just don't cover in these kind of games, these
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: matchups usually it kind of leans towards the dogs historically
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: as well. If you're gonna take a dog this big
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: that Jacksonville is, say they do touch nine nine and
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: a half, you want to throw someone the money line
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: because the return on investment over the years. You want
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to take these big dogs in divisional round on the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: money on as well as taking the number. Um, it
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: is just profitable. So to me coming into this chat,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I wanted to make this one of our foxhold bets
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: or you know, Simon says, taking the jacks here. My
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: only nerve, my only word is just like last week
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: with the Ravens, this could bump up to nine. This
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: could bump up to nine and a half. I mean
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: it's it's going to be the most teased game of
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: the week like this in the Eagles. I mean, everyone's
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: gonna do the two teamers. Um, this is gonna be
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: in there with them. So the books want to hang
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: this at six and a half seven probably, and they
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: got bumped all the way up. I feel like the
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: eight and a half nine at most books just because
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: of the teasers and la parlays. I mean, that's a
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: lot of the early money, but but a lot of
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the money right now coming in and the jacks. So
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see if it does get teased up.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Well definitely, is that's what you're seeing all the tickets? Yeah,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Like people just aren't being that in this time a week.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: People aren't taking these these these numbers straight. I would
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: just be shocked people are grabbing eight and a half
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: just because I assume everyone coming on the jacks, I
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: mean they're I felt like there were going to be
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: a public dog, and then we'll talk about they're not
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: the most public dog. There's another dog this week. There's
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: even more public. But it depends on what books you
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: look at um right now. But yes, the Jags are
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: getting a lot of money. At Arrowhead with Andy Read
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: in Kansas City. The under is This is from Evan
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: abrams Are, Director of Research. The under is fifty four
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: thirty eight and eight point. When the chiefs are seven point,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: favorites are higher. Sample size of forty six games sixty
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to the under. Again, that's where our instincts kick in
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: and me and Chad just love chief unders, and obviously
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: the math bears it out. What's frustrating is that we're
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: not getting the best of the number. Well you are
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: now if you shop you can find fifty, But I
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: got a better again. You just don't think that way though,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: because it's like it sucks that you got it, but
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you're you're rulling the dice when you bet early in
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: the week, and you know that. So it's like one
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: of those where when I'm better in the week, it's
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: little feelers. You really can't get that much money down
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: anyway because books are limits to you. That's why the
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Ravens one sucks. Were kind of has a loss from
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: last week where it's like six and a half was
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: there for maybe two days, the seven and a half
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: and everything else was there for four or four and
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: a half days. Um, that's one of those where it's
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: like early in this early in the week in the playoffs,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: I just wouldn't rush too hard because most of you
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: guys are gonna listening this. You've already missed the best
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: of the number in a few of these matchups we're
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: about to talk about, but this Jaguar one, I would
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: grab the eight and a half just to be safe.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: But me and Chad will not be shocked to be
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: come in on Thursday and it's back up to nine
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: and nine and a half. It's just it just feels
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: like the public eventually will come in on the Chiefs,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: while the pros earlier in the week they're just gonna
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: take the Jaguars just in case that number does drop down.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Giants seven and a half point underdogs at the Philadelphia Eagles.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: The total in this game is I forgot what it
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: was already, forty eight and a half. Money is on
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: the over. Money is on the Giants, yea, and it's
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: completely understandable. The Giants have been a cover machine this year.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: They're the best team ats wise. The Eagles haven't looked
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: like the Eagles, and over a month the public is
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: completely out on them if you look right now. Super
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Bowl odds are the favorite right on, the NFC and
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: fours are favorite with our rookie quarterback and the NFC,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: and they have to go on the road to Philly
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: if the Eagles win to play them. So very interesting
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: public reception, right now the Eagles, and to me, that's
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: why we're getting valued on this game chat. This number
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: probably be closer to end, especially if the Eagles had
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: just been healthy, right, if they had blown out everyone
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: the end of the season, whenever they were gonna be
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: sixteen on one, fifteen and two, it would just be
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: a completely different number. But I think the public is
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: just all in on a Giants team after arguably Daniel
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Jones best career game of his life against what we
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: would both agree chats they had bad Vikings defense. I
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: mean it's night and day the comparing these two defenses
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: again about the biggest u v O a guy. But
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: at this point of the season you can take it
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: in because it's literally a factor of the whole season.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Eagles against the past are ranked two. They're literally the
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: second team against the past. Twenty nine in football is
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the Vikings. So am I shock da Daniel Jones astolutely
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: tour them o through the air chat, not at all.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: We're getting the Eagles team rested. The every everyone I
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: thought was gonna come running in on that Eagles number
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: when I was at seven, and then they didn't. We
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: saw early money came in on the seven on the Giants,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: and it's still up to seven and a half, which
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: it is nice to know the pros are backing us
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: with the Eagles, but honestly, I knew what going in.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I was gonna take them. It's just a nice spot
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: an Eagles team at home, well arrested in that atmosphere.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk on Thursday about it. Though. All these trends,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: like I want to get more of the trends, they
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: all poured point towards the Giants. It's just historically divisional round.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Same thing we talked about the Jaguars. You do historically
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: want to take these big numbers against the one seed.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: It's just been profitable to take these big numbers. So
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: that's one of those were That's another game where I
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: would love to make him my sign and says, I'm
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: just worried the seven is gonna come down to seven
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: and the seven and a half's gonna come down to seven.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I just want to give people a bad number because
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I think it is going to come down to seven.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: I too, because it's already been bouncing around. It's been
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: bouncing around. We just the money's gonna keep coming on
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the Giants. I just they I just pros as well,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: like the early money that the early early money has
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: not been professional. It's coming on the Giants. I think
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: they were hoping teasers once again and everything would come
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: in on the Eagles and this number go up to
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: maybe eight, eight and a half and that'd be a
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: great value to them. Um. I just I like this
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Eagles even even at eight, I would still honestly take
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: this Eagles team. I just see this being a bigger
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: gap than people realize. Where um, the Giants and the
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Vikings when we saw them play earlier this year, that
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: game came down to a field goal last second. With
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: that Vikings team, it's completely different teams. This Egos team
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: was the class and NFC all season. So my only
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: hesitation and doubt with the Eagles if you are betting them,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: is what most people are feeling right now is you
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: just haven't seen hurts or this team look right and
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: over a month while the Giants, on their hand, have
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: been rolling. I think the books you're telling you something.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: You're hanging such a big number because even if they
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: hung a six six and a half, it would still
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: be getting tons of Giants money. They didn't need to
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: hang a seven and seven a half. The reason they're
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: doing that is protecting against professional money that's coming on
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the Eagles, So definitely be carefully. You've been thinking about
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: loading up on a giant too. There's just something really
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: fishy about this line. Sometimes you say stuff like that
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: and it sounds like you're saying it as an individual.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: And I've come to realize over the course of the season,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: when you say stuff like that, there's more behind it
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: than just you saying. The books are doing this, so
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: be wary. It's fishy. It feels like there's something I
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: don't know. Yeah, there always is. I mean, you can't
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: give away all the secrets, right, Yeah, that's part of
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: being a magician. But yeah, I'm just I just want
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to cause this caution people because I just felt like,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: especially fans of the show, most of them would just
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: think we'd be blindly beyond the giants here divisional dog
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: catching more than a touchdown. Um, I just want them
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: to same thing we talked about the Seahawks last we
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: against the four Niners. There's just there should be a
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: little bit of pause here. Uh, in this matchup. It's
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: just not as easy as it looks. It's never as
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: easy as it looks simon. Otherwise we'd be going four
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: and oh every week. It's true we had a good season.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: We wouldn't be making bad decisions on the bucks. What
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: do we think of the total here? I don't know
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: what to do because I really want to take the over. Um.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I just see the Eagles be able to put up
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of points against this Giant's defense. I mean
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: they put earlier this season. I have to go back
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: and look. The Eagles might have beat them two or
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: something crazy like that. So, um, they played earlier this year,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: both teams healthy, going all out. Neither defenses could really
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: stop the team's offense. Obviously, Eagles made stops against that
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Giant's offense. But um, it's it's hard to really it's
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: it's hard for me to get up the under. But
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: that is what I bet. It was forty and a half.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I took the under. It's down to forty eight. Once again.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: I think people should just wait. I think it's the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: number you just wait on. Um. But to me, if
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: you can find the seven at any book for the Eagles,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: that's the bet you make now. I would just wait
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: on the side and total for this one again because
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I do think like you just talked about, I think
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a a lot of movement on this game,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: especially when weather it might play a factor, because they're
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: predicting right now is rain for this game. So hold
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: off on betting this total just in case of weather movement.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I'm waiting on the side too, I mean, because right
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: now it's at seven and a half and I want
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: to get it at seven. I do think it'll go back.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Agree if you're a Giants, if you want it back
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: to Giants, roll the dice. Grabbed a seven a half now,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: just in case of that, because again it might go
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: up to end you you're gonna screw yourself in again
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: a better number. But if you're with me, with me
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: and Chad just taking the Eagles, you might as all
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: wait and hope you get down to that seven, because
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: the difference between seven and a half and eight it's
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: not that much. It really it doesn't land on eight
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: as much as you honestly would think it's it's honestly
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: anomaly at this point just because of two plaica versions
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: and extra points uh misses that we land on eight anymore.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: It's just not you're more likely to land on nine.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Honestly than you are eight statistically, So that's one of
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: those don't get too freaked out if you didn't get
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: the seven and a half with the Eagles. I'm gonna
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: say one thing right now, I am making an executive decision. Uh,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: ding ding ding ding ding ding ding. Executive decision. I'm
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: going with the Chiefs and Jags under fifty two and
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: a half, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Are you happy? Orders extic executive decision. It's a vandal
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: right now, fifty two and a half. I'm going with
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the under fifty two Chiefs and Jags. It's a little scary,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: but that's what I'm saying right now. I want to
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: remind everybody in case you haven't seen, in case you
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: haven't gone on to Actually network lately, uh, we have
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: an incredible subscription product. Um. We started as a subscription
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: only business. We are running like a lot of the
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of the data that Simon refers to that
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: you hear Chris Raybon or Stucky or Sean Kerner referred
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: to in the various Action Network podcast or when you
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: read their stories, it comes from information that is available
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: to pro subscribers right now. Action is running a fort
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: off sale on Action Pro for the NFL playoffs, So
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: you guys should all go check that out. It's a
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: pretty great deal. I use I use this stuff every
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: single day, every single number, especially labs. It's amazing. Bengals
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: on the road at the Bills. The Bengals who probably
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have beaten the Ravens now down basically their whole
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: offensive line against the Bill's team that should have blown
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins out of the water. Um, the total is
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. All the money coming in
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: on the over and the number has been bouncing around.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: It got as low as three and a half. Uh,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: it got as high at six. It's now at four
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: and a half. This is a really interesting one. It's
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: one of the only no that's not true. I was
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: gonna say, um, we've got a real pro Joe split
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: here though. You know, you know what We're gonna call
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: this one, foxhel fox Hole going with the Bills, Foxhold Bills.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Hit the damn music man, Mitchell Alert here on Josh Allenko,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: He's he's a football fire through and through. Here there's
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: last of there we go jos can excuse me? Cuts
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: down how many quarterbacks. Have you ever seen hurdle anyone
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: good at this? There's no fear, no way he was.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: I'm the demands to do something about for this album
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: rages and i Ani making louder and louder. No brainer. Yeah,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I just pretty much summed up perfectly. You're getting an
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: undervalued Bills team coming off arguably one of their worst
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: games of the season. Defensively, offensively, special teams wise. I
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: love everything about this one. I mean, not only do
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I think mcdermotts one of the best coaches on football,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: he's the only defensive head coach if you look at
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: all the teams left. Every other mind is an offensive mind,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: his specialist defense. And now he's going up against an
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: offensive line that's missing three starters. Three key starters, not
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: not just three guys like that have helped plug holes
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: on that offensive line. Really important cocks to that pieces
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: of that Cincinnati team chat. So when we saw it
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: last week with the Ravens, obviously Ravens defense, I would
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: raid them. I'd grade them a little higher than I
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: would the Bills. Honestly at this point, I mean that
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: you saw how it that that defensive line was for
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the Ravens against the run against Joe Burrow. We're not
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: gonna get that same kind of turnout here from the Bills. Right,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: They've they've lost von Miller, but they're gonna be able
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: to scheme up incredibly difficult schemes on that defensive line
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: to stop for that offensive line when you're bringing guys.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: And that's the biggest thing, right, there's all these little
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: call signs, all these little things that as the season
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: goes along, these offensive line they built up a trust
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: of Okay, they're switching in this formation, we know how
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: to counter that with our own call signs. Everything like that.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: When you're bringing in three new guys at the end
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: of a season to play in those roles that they
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: need to make calls in the middle of snaps of
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: guys rolling off doubles, whatever it is to like rotato
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: or different sides. That's a huge deal for the Bangos.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: We saw that last week. They really looked like the
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: team they were last year. Right, they needed a ton
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: of luck to win games and make up through the playoffs.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Not this regular season. This regular season, the Bangos were
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: legit dominant. I mean the books they hated them. That
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: was free money was every week for people to bet them. Um.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I mean they might have covered since the Super They
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: be like twenty four a t s um since the
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: playoffs last year, completely including this past season, so they
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: were on an absolute role. But we're seeing to finally
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: catch up to them, and we're seeing the market catch
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: up to them. I mean, the the Bengals are going
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: to attract a ton of public money this week because
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: in their mind, people said, yeah, the Bengals had a
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: bad week. They put the crap. So are the Bills
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: like they shouldn't be catching more than three points? They
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: think this is a really bad line. So me and
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Chad I knew, not that I knew Chad was in balls,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: I knew that we would have a debate about this
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: when I try to convince them to come the side.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: He was already on it with me from the get go.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: So to me, we can grab four and a half
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: right now, Fandel. That's why I really want people to
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: go get it right now, just because I do see
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: it going up. I see the pros coming on the
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Bills just because of that big issues right now on
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the offensive line and vice versa. I think the Bills
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: grabbing are gonna being a nice bounce back spot here
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: like that. They're the issues they had against Miami easy,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: easily fixable, easily fixable. The Bengals are not like that.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Stuff they cannot cure in a week. That stuff they
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: need to change. So big, big movement this week. I
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: just talked about it. Some books open this six and
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: a half and all of us were like, what the hell.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Immediately got bet down, Immediately got bet down a three
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: and a half four, And we've seen just the pro
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: money coming in now trickling a back up to four
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: and a half five. So um, if you're able to yes,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: scrab that four and a half with us, I just
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: cannot see us be moved off the position. I just
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be on the Bills this week. I'm
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: not not going to be a shock at everyone. I
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: don't have an upset on this side of the bracket.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I got it being pretty boring neutral field Bills, Chiefs,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: But I just think they were two they there are
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: two best teams they have see off season. Nothing's changing
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: for me at this point. They're like, yes, the Bills
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: have had injuries. The Chiefs honestly are getting healthier at
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: this point in the year. But the Bills. They do
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: have some injuries. I still think they're far above better
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: than I really banged up sincin that a team that
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: they can't overcome all these injuries. They needed that offensive
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: line to give Burrow time to be what he is,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: which is a great quarterback. He just does not have
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: it right now. Uh. Interesting, Obviously this game is a
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: rematch of a game that happened, didn't happen, you know,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: three weeks ago in that game in Cincinnati, so much
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: at stake for the playoffs, um, and now we've got
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: it being played in Buffalo. Buffalo was a favorite. You know,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: we were talking about that game just from a betting
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: point of view from a few weeks ago. You me
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Vegas refund, we do action island with um, people being
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: we all like Buffalo in that game and people being
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: nervous after watching the beginning of that game, which means
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: means nothing still human. Now all of a sudden, we're
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: so confident in the Bills injuries. What a difference, and
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: what a difference. This is good Doll's dream of not
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: that the man's heartless, that these owners are heartless, but
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: it is a business. And Joe Burrow made the biggest
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: mistake of this season because he used a good human
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: being of going over to that Josh Allen and the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Bill's humans saying, no, it's fine, we both shouldn't play
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: this game. Let's walk away. Were the rule really states.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Joe Burshol walked over and said, hey, we're ready to play.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen said, well we're not, and he would say, okay,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: then you forfeit, right, and the Bill said yes to
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: be forfeit and this game would be in since here
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: right now, the Bills would be on the road. So
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: this played out just as Roger wanted it. We'll never
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: see anyone ever again walk away from a game because
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: they put those rules in place and they were piste.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: So since the fans, I get it, they've been complaining
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: already this week that they shouldn't have to be playing
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: this game and Buffalo it should be a neutral field.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: I get where you guys are coming from. It sucks,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: but those were the rules. You guys left the field
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: voluntarily and just like the Bills didn't, and the Bills
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: have no need to be punished. So Bills have this
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: at home. They deserve to be getting the points. This
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: is the cyber definitely gonna be on and to me,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: if it stays under six, there's no doubt you're getting
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: good value on this Bills team. Um I just I
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: just love this matchup for that defense and such a
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: nice bounceback spot where everyone's, like I just said, everyone's
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: so down on this team, where any pro with the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: computer model is going to project out the Bills ssuily
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: should have covered last not easily covered, but they should
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: have covered. And one what would this line have been
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: if they had done so right? This would probably would
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: be six and a half six. So to me, we're
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: getting a point point and a half of free value
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: just based off last week. While you were talking, I
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: did what I like to do on assignment, says Bet.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I went into the app and I quick slipped it.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: I used fan to a quick slip in the Action
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: Network app. I'm in New York. It was so freaking
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: easy to get the total on this game. Uh opened
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: over fifty. I think it's at forty eight and a
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: half right now. So I think it's the same thing
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: of projo looking at that old line of the Bengals
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: and they just think they're gonna have issues moving the ball.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: So I love the under of fifty, I would still
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: take it. We can chat already talked about four d
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: and a half's a key number. I grabbed that now
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: if you could. This is just a game. I will
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: be on the under right now. There's only one game
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: I'm leading towards the over, and that's that Eagos Giants game.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: That's most likely for me to end up on that over.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: I just really liked the unders this week, especially after
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: a five and one over week for wild Card weekend.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see a little bit of over
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: adjustment from these sports books which early money on, especially
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: this game. That's that's that's very interesting. The pros are
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: coming on this under so heavily, but it makes sense
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: we really think about since Anali and those offensive and struggles.
• 34:12
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  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. So in the next game,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: here's what I don't get right now, We've got a
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: bills minus four and a half is the foxhold. The
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: exact decision is Chief Jacks under fifty two and a half.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: We old people assignment, says um, So we're talking about
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the forty nine and the Cowboys right now. Uh this line.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I see some fours out there at FanDuel right now, Um,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: this game is at four. Uh what say you? I
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: see some three and a half's out there too. What
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: say you, Simon, We'll just start off right off the tops,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: So if you canna make their beds real quick, Simon says,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: under forty six and a half, it's right now is
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: my favorite bet of the week. I love yea love well,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: and we don't we think it's gonna go We think
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: it's potentially going to go lower. So I think the
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: pros are gonna keep betting down, especially if you'd even
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: been following along. California has been getting destroyed by bad weather,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: like they've just been getting NonStop rain, um, bad floods,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: all of it, which obviously feel horrible for those people
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: living out there. We got lucky last week if you
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: bet the three Niners. Like literally it was just right
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the football game. It opened up
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: and was sunny. It was as if it was so
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: weird it was bizarre. Yeah. Yeah, So that was one
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: of those where I felt lucky being on that over
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: in that game because of that where um I bet
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: you over honestly because of the bad weather and there
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: was no bad weather and that helped them. I mean
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: they were moving up and down the field of both offenses.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: So in this matchup going to coplet other way, I
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: think Dallas is gonna have a big advantage against Purty,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna be a huge advantage in
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the four nineers against Dac. Doc does not like to
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: be moved off this spot. That's one of those things
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: where Tampa just couldn't get to them. They simply could
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: not touch the guy. Never moved them off his spot,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: so he was able to pick them apart. I mean,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: we've seen Dac when he's comfortable, he can do what
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: ever he wants. You go back and watch this even
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: two weeks ago that Watchington game. All they did was
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: moving him off the spot, and he was just uncomfortable.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: He hates being moved out of the pocket deck. So
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: look at his matchup of the four nineers. That's exactly
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: how their defense plays. Um, I like the three and
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: a half, you, I'm not gonna lie with the four
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: and niners. I just feel way more confidence right now
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: taking the under because I can see both offenses struggling
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: first two defenses. That, yes, the Cowboys secondary is incredibly suspect,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: we all know that, we all agree on that, but
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: they still have a really dominant from four and and
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: this match up against Purty. He's not faced anyone, especially
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: like Parsons, like a very dominant force that has the
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: speed to catch up. When the kid tries to run
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: out of the pocket, he's going to be caught by Parsons.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: He is not out running him. So UM, like the
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: four nineers. We'll talk more out there on Thursday, because
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I would tell people, grab the three and a half,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: you're going with us. I'm just a little worried. I
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: want to talk to other professionals right now because I
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: know the number has been bent down by a really
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: smart group. They came in right right away on the Cowboys.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: UM four and a half for a good reason. I
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: think there there. It's the it's the looking at a
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: team at a high winning percentage, like they do have
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the four nins. What are they now? They might be
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: fourteen and four at this Yeah, they want to lemon straight.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Their fourteen and four on the season. UM, that's incredible.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Historically that's not good though in the playoffs in this round.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: That's again, these are all crazy trends we're gonna talking
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: about Thursday. It's not good to be a high seed
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: with a huge winner percentage. You already know that. UM,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I'm already on a couple of favorites this week. What
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: can I do? Like? I like this number. I think
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: we're getting fair a fair market value. But I know
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the pros aren't overacting to that game against the Bucks,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: and that's the money that's driving this number down. So
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: that's what's giving me such worry about picking a side
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: here where the total I feel like this is such
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: a good number. Like this number to me is gonna
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: keep coming down. I see closing closer to forty four.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: So if you can grab the forty six and a
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: half now, I would because I do see this this
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: total drop. I just I feel the general public might
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: be on the over, but all the pros are gonna
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: see this is going to be a very strong defensive
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: matchup on both sides of the ball. It's just favorites
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: both sides the line wise of the ball, where yes,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Fortnits do have a great run blocking scheme, but we've
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: seen it Dallas. This kind of team, they can take
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: that away where you can scheme that up, but they'll
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: figure out a way to get Parsons evolved in all
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: these plays. So um, yeah, Chad, I I wanted to
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: come in here and be really staunched and taking the
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: forty niners. It's just gonna be a pause from on
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: that one. But I do feel confident that in this
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: under it, Well, it does feel weird to me that
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys are getting the sharp money right now, and
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: I agree with you, which seems like it. I noticed
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: that it feel like a little bit of a reaction, yeah,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: and like it's not like what I just had the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: last night. But that's the antithesis of what you get
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: from professional betters, so at it it makes no sense
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, so that's one of those like I'll
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: get home to be starting to erupt, But I could be.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Everybody was coming in on the Bucks last night at
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: two and a half, and so maybe they're over but
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: we knew professionals were on the Bucks, and so they
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: could be overvaluing their own opinion, Like, wow, I thought
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: the Bucks were so good and the Cowboys killed them,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: So I was right about the Bucks. They're amazing, so
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys must be better. You know, I would say
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: what it felt like to me because I've only watched
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: that game once. I'm gonna rewatch it later tonight. Again,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: this is the Bucks Cowboys game to me, The shocking
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: thing was how prepared McCarthy had that team. Yeah, I
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: mean it's not very good, no, And they were incredibly prepared.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: The scheme was I mean it was brilliant, honestly, like
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: the way they attacked Tampa um on all offense. Even
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: if Tom had played an r A game, right if
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: they had put up a couple of points. I do
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: think the Dallas took their for off the gas, like
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: they really could have beat the Craft by that Bucks defense,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: and they really didn't. So the public is going to
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: be over Surturs team chat. That's what's giving me such pause.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: And we've already seen in the market the forty niners
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: right now. I've already said they're the favorite to win
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the NFC, so they are clearly the darling of the public. Um.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: But like Chad just said this, this is one of
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the more interesting lines this week. The pros are taking
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: a stand right now on this Cowboys team. So, um,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: it's one of those I just wanted better side people,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: because I do think Chad and I we might end
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: flipping on Thursday. But as we sit here right now,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: we like the fourty niners. You know, we're quicker this
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: week because there's just there's not that many games. Reminder,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Foxhole Bills minus four and a half. Simon says the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: total in the Niners Cowboys forty six and a half.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Exact decision under I'm sorry, the Simon says, is the
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: under the forty six and a half, of which is
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the total in the Cowboys Niners. And then the exact
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: decision is the Chiefs Jags under fifty two and a half.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: We will give out a big balls on uh Thursday.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Think that's everything? Yeah, all honestly, can't wait till Thursday. Now,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: can't wait till Thursday, can see can't wait to see
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: if there are big balls on Thursdays. Is betting the
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Niners against the wise guys? I was saying me that
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: flip flip us on the Eagles commits us to take
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the Eagles in the seven a half. Be a man,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: take the seven a half because I'll be honest, I
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: want that seven. That's seven and a half. The hook
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: of course that that might be the big balls. But
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: this has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Network for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. Producer extraordinaire
• 43:31
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