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Bloomberg Money: 'Fed Needs Clear Inflation Target and Messaging' · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: and it's wonderful to see David Girl Bloomberg this weekend.
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Speaker 2: Alison Schreger here with an important story and this is
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Speaker 2: a real pleasure. Hannah Elliott. What you do is you
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Speaker 2: go to Baylor and if you do Baylor, you do autos?
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Speaker 2: Hannah Elliott? Or is this working with Matt Miller on
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Speaker 2: an esteamed auto podcast. Let's get it started. I walked
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Speaker 2: by Elucid. Elucid two hundred thousand dollars or something. Are
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Speaker 2: they selling? Are we going to buy fancy overpriced evs
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Speaker 2: with our wealth management?
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Speaker 3: Apparently not the sales say no, the sales day Americans
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Speaker 3: don't want EV's. Unfortunately, for companies like Lucid and Tesla
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Speaker 3: and Ribbon that are struggling, and also for our domestic
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Speaker 3: automakers that are actually pulling back on a lot of EV's,
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Speaker 3: they had money.
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Speaker 2: Question. Yeah, I'm Scarlett probably as this, I'm going to
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Speaker 2: steal it from her. Should the Chinese be let into
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Speaker 2: America to sell as cheap evs?
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Speaker 3: You know what, I'm not an economist. Jim Farley at
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Speaker 3: Ford thinks that EV's from China will be.
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Speaker 4: Here in the next five years or so. A lot
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Speaker 4: of people.
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Speaker 3: Keith Manton are esteemed automotive reporter came on the podcast yesterday,
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Speaker 3: agrees it's only a matter of time.
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Speaker 5: It's only a matter of time. But I mean under
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Speaker 5: this president, unlikely, right, David, because he is all about
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Speaker 5: trade wars and tariffs and making sure that he seeks
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Speaker 5: vengeance on those who have wronged him in the past.
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Speaker 5: And you see this across the policy spectrum.
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Speaker 6: That's absolutely correct. I mean, he's somebody who loves tariffs,
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Speaker 6: as he says time and time again. I would have
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Speaker 6: a hard time imagining him welcoming Chinese autos into the
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Speaker 6: United States as he invites American automakers to the lawn
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Speaker 6: of the White House over and over again. We saw
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Speaker 6: him put these new tariffs in place just a few
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Speaker 6: days ago, so that that's very much the direction of travel.
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Speaker 2: There kids at camp. We also have a president of
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Speaker 2: the United States at camp. He's at Camp David right now,
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Speaker 2: sixty miles north of the White House. In the history
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Speaker 2: of this cabinet room is extraordinary. I guess of everything.
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Speaker 2: I remember monocolm began and and we're sad out with
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Speaker 2: Carter in seventy nine. Why is the president there? And
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Speaker 2: it's a place where they talk about war, isn't It's
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Speaker 2: a great question.
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Speaker 6: And were I the president, I wouldn't go for the
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Speaker 6: day and leave as he's going to do. He's headed
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Speaker 6: to Bedminster after this, but gets in the Toctin Mountains
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Speaker 6: in Maryland, as you say, sixty miles outside of Washington,
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Speaker 6: d C. We saw FDR go there during his presidency,
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Speaker 6: which called Shangri La back then, and Dwight Eisenhoward didn't
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Speaker 6: like the name. He thought that was a little too
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Speaker 6: a feat so he changed it to Camp David in
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Speaker 6: honor of his grandson. He went there for many weeks
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Speaker 6: after he had a heart attack in Denver. There is
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Speaker 6: some talk of this being the first cabinet meeting at
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Speaker 6: Camp David. No, this one is not Eisen Howard can
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Speaker 6: being the While he was there.
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Speaker 2: There's a photoscoll and I saw President Obama playing pool
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Speaker 2: and you could I could see President Trump bowling President
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Speaker 2: bowling Alley. There is a bowling Alley image.
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Speaker 4: I don't get that on truth Social.
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Speaker 6: But this is really just a venue change. It's the
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Speaker 6: same kind of cabinet meeting we've seen. He's invited the press,
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Speaker 6: and then I'll say, lastly on your point about the
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Speaker 6: significance of this venue, and presidents have liked this place
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Speaker 6: in the past because the press hasn't been.
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Speaker 2: Able to go.
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Speaker 6: And we see President from kind of turning that on
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Speaker 6: its sad guys, he's got a live filmed cabinet meeting
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Speaker 6: taking place again.
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Speaker 4: Well, he's being true to his spirit.
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Speaker 5: Alix, I want to bring you into the conversation because
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Speaker 5: you recently had a column on how Americans are richer
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Speaker 5: than ever before, but they're also.
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Speaker 4: Angrier than ever before as well.
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Speaker 5: The top one percent is richer or is everyone getting
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Speaker 5: richer because you wonder how much of this is you know,
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Speaker 5: kind of relative gains.
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Speaker 1: Well, everyone is getting richer. The top one percent has
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Speaker 1: gotten way way richer. Even if you look at the
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Speaker 1: intercome distribution. It's true the middle class is smaller, but
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Speaker 1: because more people have entered the upper middle class. But
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Speaker 1: even lower income people are by most metrics bet are
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Speaker 1: often they used to be. But it's sort of extraordinary
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Speaker 1: because all we hear is people feel like the economy
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Speaker 1: is not working for them. So, you know, there's a
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Speaker 1: lot of reasons why that could be. It could be
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Speaker 1: some like necessary services are still expensive, could be relative
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Speaker 1: gains or what matters.
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Speaker 5: You know, I wonder whether how much of this is
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Speaker 5: tied to fundamental misunderstandings about how investing or financial markets work.
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Speaker 5: You think about gen Z and they really adopted this
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Speaker 5: financial nihilism where they bet the house on crypto prediction
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Speaker 5: markets all these other things. And you know, because why
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Speaker 5: noting everything doesn't look good for them anyway, they feel
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Speaker 5: like everything's rigged regardless.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's there is more of this feeling that success
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Speaker 1: is sort of randomly rather than you know, or I'm
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Speaker 1: also seeing the sort of disconnect and understanding risk. That
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Speaker 1: risk comes from taking, you know, from risking more like
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Speaker 1: you've got higher rewards for more taking more risk, And
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Speaker 1: I don't think this of that relationship has been well understood. Also,
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Speaker 1: I feel like there's a dearth of risk taking in
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Speaker 1: a lot of their lives in other ways. So I
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Speaker 1: feel like it's expressing themselves through taking sort of outside
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Speaker 1: risks in other ways, like maybe they won't invest in
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Speaker 1: this in p. Five hundred, but they'll invest in you know,
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Speaker 1: the you know, Calshier or whatever. So it might be
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Speaker 1: so also a lack of financial literacy or a lask
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Speaker 1: of good risk training.
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Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned the financial literacy. You own the high
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Speaker 2: ground on this with your book and with your academics
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Speaker 2: as well. We're going to have the former vice chairman
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Speaker 2: of the FEDHAN and with your heritage to Manhattan Institute
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Speaker 2: and all that. What did you think of the press conference?
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Speaker 1: You know, there's two things I've changed my mind about
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Speaker 1: in the last five years. One is drug legalization and
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Speaker 1: the other is monetary policy transparency, which I was like
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Speaker 1: a big thing of. You know, Actually Rich was chair
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Speaker 1: of the department when I was at Columbia, so I
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Speaker 1: learned all this stuff from him, and it's just I
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Speaker 1: feel like the FED sort of started to box itself
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Speaker 1: in a little bit too much a forward guidance. Okay,
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Speaker 1: so to some degree, I think, you know, well, maybe
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Speaker 1: it wors just not communicating so.
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Speaker 2: Well right now?
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Speaker 7: Okay, you know, maybe a little mystery and a little like, hey,
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Speaker 7: we think why I.
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Speaker 2: Use that word the other day? The mystery or how
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Speaker 2: does he pull away from too much mystery?
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Speaker 7: Well, you want a clear reaction function, you want clear rules,
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Speaker 7: but you also don't want to say, hey, we're going
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Speaker 7: to probably increase rates in five years or for the years,
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Speaker 7: so you kind of want to strike that fout.
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Speaker 2: The blumber of money angle on this is the yield.
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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, we're mortgage rates in two weeks.
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Speaker 5: The mortgage is now at six point six six percent.
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Speaker 5: That's a one year high. We're not at seven percent yet,
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Speaker 5: but it does make home ownership a lot more expensive.
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Speaker 5: And David, there's a lot of talk about the affordability crisis.
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Speaker 5: Has DC come up with any solutions that will I
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Speaker 5: don't know, resonate with voters before the midterm elections?
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Speaker 2: No, not really.
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Speaker 6: I mean, there was this housing build that the president
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Speaker 6: liked until he didn't like, and so I think that
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Speaker 6: there's been some lip service to it. But we're at
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Speaker 6: a point now as we approach the midterm, so I
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Speaker 6: think the prospects there being any kind of real landmark
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Speaker 6: legislation coming together seems pretty unlikely. But I think that,
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Speaker 6: you know, you, going back to the meeting that's taking
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Speaker 6: place right now, the president has this difficulties overseas and
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Speaker 6: in the US, and this is certainly something I think.
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Speaker 2: That's what thirty seconds and I gave you the last word.
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Speaker 2: Is everybody leaving California?
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Speaker 4: Oh gosh, if you're rich, maybe yes.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, you talk about personal funding.
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Speaker 3: Really, it's really tricky. Everybody's watching the mayoral race. This
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Speaker 3: is a really in LA specifically.
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Speaker 4: You're going to Texas, You're going to Florida. Exactly.
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Speaker 2: Do you have Red Sox Dodgers tickets this weekend?
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Speaker 8: I do not.
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Speaker 9: I'm a mixed fan.
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Speaker 4: Tom Okay, nice exactly. I want to thank our panelist.
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Speaker 5: Thank you so much everyone, David Garral, co host of
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Speaker 2: Coming up the conversation and after that press conference an
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Speaker 2: important conversation for global economics. Richard Clarita, the former vice
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Speaker 2: chairman of the Federal Reserve. His academics is directly involved
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Speaker 2: in the uproar that chairman wars started here on Wednesday.
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Speaker 2: Richie clarda next from New York City. It's Bloomberg Money.
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Speaker 2: You studied under clarity.
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Speaker 4: Can Ebie's ever become collectibles?
8:45
Speaker 2: Did you pass the math? Welcome back at Bloomberg Money
8:55
Speaker 2: thrilled you with us, Tom Keenan Scarlett Food. It was
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Speaker 2: going to be an important interview, but well maybe a
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Speaker 2: a little more important than it was. Wednesday at one pm.
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Speaker 2: Richard Clarida is with us with PIMCO of Columbia University,
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Speaker 2: always and always the vice chairman, former Vice chairman. I
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Speaker 2: should say the Federal Reserve system, and I think you
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Speaker 2: know we're going to straddle here between Bloomberg money and
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Speaker 2: everything else.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, and we got to start with what we saw
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Speaker 5: in the bond market this week, because we had to
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Speaker 5: sell off in the thirty year yield this week reached
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Speaker 5: a nineteen year high five point twenty six percent, Rich Clarida.
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Speaker 5: Does this sell off in the long line tell us
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Speaker 5: anything about the US economy and therefore how people's prospects
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Speaker 5: might change.
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Speaker 10: Well, there are a lot of reasons bond eeals can
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Speaker 10: go up and down, not just the Fed. The FED
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Speaker 10: is an important part of it. What I would point
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Speaker 10: to is that so far Kevin Warsh has been shared
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Speaker 10: really only six seven.
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Speaker 9: Weeks, but an important measure in the.
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Speaker 10: Bond market, which is break even inflation, so sort of
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Speaker 10: traders expectation of inflation is out or below where it
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Speaker 10: was at least out to ten years when he became chairman.
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Speaker 10: But certainly the reaction during the press conference was probably
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Speaker 10: not one that was welcome.
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Speaker 5: Right, we know the first Trump administration cared a lot
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Speaker 5: about the stock market, and the second one seems to
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Speaker 5: have added the bond market to its list of things
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Speaker 5: that is watching. Which part of the bond market does
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Speaker 5: this administration care most about? The thirty year yield the
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Speaker 5: ten year yield.
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Speaker 10: Oh my goodness, I'm not sure I would defer probably
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Speaker 10: a secretary bust and I do think at one point
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Speaker 10: he may have said that he's focused more on the
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Speaker 10: ten year yield than he is on the FED funds rate. Well,
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Speaker 10: so much of the economy people borrow along for car
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Speaker 10: loans or mortgages or corporate loans, and so that's probably
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Speaker 10: what he had in mind.
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Speaker 2: Okay, So what we're going to do here, it's Bloomberg money.
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Speaker 2: We do personal finance, we do wealth management, we do retirement.
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Speaker 2: But we also have Richard Clarita where this is in
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Speaker 2: the heart of this debate over the chairman of the Fed.
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Speaker 2: So it's going to be a little bit sort of
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Speaker 2: like Scarfoon and Time doing Bloomberg surveillance like more you can.
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Speaker 4: Protect the children at that minder blurry, protect the.
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Speaker 9: Children at home valance.
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Speaker 2: Fine, okay, so former Vice chairman, with great respect, I
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Speaker 2: don't want to turn this into a street lesson. But
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Speaker 2: you have Wosh nominally of Stanford talking about the Lucas
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Speaker 2: critique and then going over and what people don't know
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Speaker 2: is you're directly involved with this. Let's first listen to
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Speaker 2: Chairman Warsh on Wednesday.
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Speaker 11: Some version of the Lucas critique should remind us that
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Speaker 11: when we talk about measures of inflation or something else,
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Speaker 11: and we describe those measures as being consistent with our objectives,
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Speaker 11: we might make them such that they're not very good
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Speaker 11: measures or very good objectives.
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Speaker 2: The chairman before we had the questions from Michael McKee
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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg, the world lit up, an along with legit
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Speaker 2: cred Out of Lucas's Chicago was fiery. The news conference
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Speaker 2: was rich in philosophy, process and institutional aspirations, but poor
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Speaker 2: in operational guidance. The absence of claritai like analytical specificity
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Speaker 2: appears to have spoken louder than Worsh's words. So Lucas
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Speaker 2: did what he did. CGG, Clarita, Galli, and Gertner reinvented
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Speaker 2: modern economics with something called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory.
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Speaker 2: We come out now, and as Claudia Sam says, we
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Speaker 2: have a chairman who's not sure what he's looking at
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Speaker 2: an inflation. How does he get the buryls Macon. Does
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Speaker 2: he need to reaffirm PCE is the inflation series? Well?
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Speaker 10: I think what he said at the press conference is
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Speaker 10: for now until next January at least that's going to
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Speaker 10: be correct. So the FED adopted that again in January.
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Speaker 10: He left open the possibility that the task forces could
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Speaker 10: recommend other measures. They could go to an average instead
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Speaker 10: of picking one INDUX, they could look at CPIPPI.
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Speaker 9: There are a lot of things they could do.
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Speaker 10: But I think Anna as usual raised is an important
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Speaker 10: point is that an inflation targeting central bank needs to
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Speaker 10: be clear about what it is it's targeting. It can,
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Speaker 10: it may evolve, and so I think that will be
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Speaker 10: important very importantly.
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Speaker 2: Then here, if we need to get the system back
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Speaker 2: with a confidence about the FED, how does he do
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Speaker 2: that at Jackson Hole? Does he have to reaffirm as
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Speaker 2: Somem says, that inflation is the appropriate measurement and not
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Speaker 2: a policy.
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Speaker 10: Well, I think Jackson Hole may serve a couple purposes. Historically,
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Speaker 10: as we've seen, chairs have used Jackson Hole as sort
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Speaker 10: of a sneak preview of coming attractions. At the September, November,
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Speaker 10: and December meetings, Chairman war Shennedy may do that.
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Speaker 9: He's also interested.
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Speaker 10: In what he called some big question, big picture questions
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Speaker 10: that he sort of previewed at this meeting, and he's
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Speaker 10: also talking to the task forces.
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Speaker 9: I think it's too early to tell what he'll do at.
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Speaker 10: Jackson Hole, but he may do that as well.
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Speaker 5: I find it really interesting that he doesn't want to
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Speaker 5: tell the bond market a whole lot of things, and
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Speaker 5: he's kind of waiting to take his cue from the
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Speaker 5: bond market.
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Speaker 4: From a layperson's point of view, it feels very circular.
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Speaker 3: Right.
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Speaker 5: The Central Bank sets a benchwork industry, the bond market
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Speaker 5: takes its que from that. What's the rationale for the
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Speaker 5: FED to take its queue from the bond market that's
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Speaker 5: relying on the FED to set policy.
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Speaker 4: Help me understand that.
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Speaker 10: So here's the way I would express it. The FED
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Speaker 10: is a very important part of ten year treasury yields.
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Speaker 9: It's not the only thing that drives yields.
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Speaker 10: So I think the Chairman was important to emphasize that
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Speaker 10: the FED does want to step back and interp movements
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Speaker 10: in bond yields. It could be inflation, it could be
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Speaker 10: global growth, Middle East hostilities, but certainly the Chairman and
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Speaker 10: the FED understands that an important part of tenier yields
14:32
Speaker 10: is the expected path of the funds rate and to
14:35
Speaker 10: Scarlett's point, and I actually Ben bernanke gave a speech
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Speaker 10: on this, as did I as vice chair. It's called
14:40
Speaker 10: sometimes called the hall of mirrors problem in central banking,
14:43
Speaker 10: which is the central bank looks at the market, the
14:45
Speaker 10: market looks at the central bank.
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Speaker 2: It gets circular. Let's go back to your page. Gallian
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Speaker 2: Gertler didn't know this. Richard claar to channeling Alan Blinder.
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Speaker 2: Having looked at monetary policy from Joni Mitchell's both sides,
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Speaker 2: now I can testify that central banking in practice is
15:01
Speaker 2: as much in art as a science. How does worsh
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Speaker 2: get back to science to Clarita silence versus some mom
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Speaker 2: and pop philosophy he learned at Stanford?
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Speaker 10: Oh well, I think Kevin Walsh and the committee understand that. Look,
15:17
Speaker 10: Kevin came in. Chairman Warsh came in with an ambitious agenda,
15:22
Speaker 10: and I think that they're going to both focus on
15:26
Speaker 10: implementing that agenda as well as getting to where they
15:29
Speaker 10: need to be on policy. I guess where I would
15:31
Speaker 10: try to relate Clarita Galley Gertler to the current conversation
15:35
Speaker 10: is perhaps specifically in the domain of forward guidance and
15:38
Speaker 10: so in the CGG model, there's actually not a role
15:42
Speaker 10: for forward guidance because the market understands the FED reaction
15:46
Speaker 10: function and the FED understands the market. If you're not
15:50
Speaker 10: going to do forward guidance, then it's incumbent for the
15:53
Speaker 10: markets to have a broad understanding of how the central
15:56
Speaker 10: bank will react to data. If we had six bad
15:58
Speaker 10: months in a row of inflation data, would they hike
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Speaker 10: and by hand much?
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Speaker 9: They're not committing to that, but they're saying, if the
16:04
Speaker 9: data comes out this way.
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Speaker 2: For everybody have Bloomberg money and Scott I got goosebumps.
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Speaker 2: This is like the real deal. I mean, this is
16:10
Speaker 2: what the adults in the room are arguing about right now.
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Speaker 5: Well, for people who are watching this and don't quite
16:16
Speaker 5: know all the names that you and Rich are throwing
16:18
Speaker 5: out there, I want to bring it back to the
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Speaker 5: real economy and the real people's concerns. Do you agree
16:22
Speaker 5: with those people who say that we have a K
16:24
Speaker 5: shaped economy where the higher income and asset owners are
16:27
Speaker 5: doing well and everyone else is kind of struggling that
16:29
Speaker 5: downward arm, and if so, how do we solve for that?
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Speaker 10: Well, yes, broadly, we do and have had a K
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Speaker 10: shape economy for some time, but the K, the branches
16:41
Speaker 10: of the K, have been diverging more widely in the
16:43
Speaker 10: last six or seven years. The way I like to
16:45
Speaker 10: think about it, Scarlett is roughly sixty percent of Americans
16:49
Speaker 10: live in a house that's owner occupied housing, sometimes with
16:53
Speaker 10: their parents, but it's owned about forty percent rent. Most
16:56
Speaker 10: of that sixty percent owned stocks, most of the other
16:59
Speaker 10: forty percent doesn't. So we've been in an economy for
17:02
Speaker 10: some time, but especially in the last six years when
17:04
Speaker 10: stocks have gone up, house prices have gone up.
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Speaker 9: So the top of that K is doing pretty well.
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Speaker 10: If you're in the other part of the K, you
17:11
Speaker 10: don't own your house, you don't own a lot of stocks,
17:13
Speaker 10: you're living paycheck to paycheck. It's been a tough six years,
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Speaker 10: and so there's no doubt we're in a casehay to.
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Speaker 5: Now those services costs just keep getting more expensive as well.
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Speaker 2: From New York City on a Friday, Bloomberg Money, Tom
17:28
Speaker 2: keenan Scarlet Food and with Scarlet Food, Richard Claire and you.
17:32
Speaker 5: Know, Bloomberg money is about how you invest and make
17:34
Speaker 5: your money, but it's also about how you spend your money.
17:37
Speaker 5: So Rich claud I want to ask you on this Friday,
17:39
Speaker 5: what's your splurge?
17:40
Speaker 4: First of all, and how do you save? What do
17:42
Speaker 4: you savell?
17:45
Speaker 10: I leave the saving to my wife, she's pretty good
17:47
Speaker 10: at it. My splurge is on My hobby is music,
17:50
Speaker 10: So I buy guitars, I buy recording equipment.
17:52
Speaker 9: Really, I even spend money. I'm recording my albums. So yeah,
17:57
Speaker 9: that's my splurge.
17:58
Speaker 4: Then you rich record album.
18:00
Speaker 10: In twenty sixteen, I did available Spotify, Apple Music stream
18:04
Speaker 10: for free on YouTube. The new album's coming out later
18:07
Speaker 10: this year. Maybe we'll do a rollout party on this show.
18:10
Speaker 4: Oh it's a follow up. Yeah, yeah, Well what's it called.
18:12
Speaker 9: It's gonna be called take two?
18:14
Speaker 4: Take two? Okay? And what folk music?
18:16
Speaker 3: Like?
18:17
Speaker 4: What's your vibe?
18:17
Speaker 9: Olk rock?
18:18
Speaker 2: Yeah?
18:18
Speaker 10: Folk ross someone who listened to too many Beatles albums.
18:21
Speaker 2: And I will editorialize as i've heard it. It is
18:24
Speaker 2: not a vanity album. It is exquisite. I was shocked.
18:28
Speaker 2: Let's thank you really really quite thank you quit?
18:31
Speaker 5: And you're the solo star, like I don't hear a
18:32
Speaker 5: band name in there.
18:33
Speaker 10: Well, I write the songs and do the vocals, but
18:36
Speaker 10: I work with professional studio musicians in London, LA and Nashville.
18:40
Speaker 10: So all the music you hear is really good playing
18:41
Speaker 10: and then I do some singing on it.
18:43
Speaker 4: Richard Clarts a new album coming.
18:45
Speaker 10: Out with Day Well by December thirty first.
18:48
Speaker 5: By December thirty first, Richard Clater to thank you so much.
18:50
Speaker 5: Pimcoll global economic advisor, the former Feederal Reserve Vice chairman,
18:54
Speaker 5: and of course Columbia University professor as well. Coming up
18:57
Speaker 5: a conversation with Laurie Calvacino of RBC Capital Markets on
19:01
Speaker 5: your retirement fund.
19:02
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Money. That is.
19:14
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Money is your new destination for personal finance. It's
19:17
Speaker 5: a cross platform effort that extends beyond your television, including
19:20
Speaker 5: at our new digital hub at Bloomberg dot com slash money.
19:23
Speaker 5: And this week's story I saw on that site is
19:26
Speaker 5: focused on Boomerang kids.
19:27
Speaker 4: It used to be that after.
19:28
Speaker 5: The kids graduated from college, they were out on their own,
19:32
Speaker 5: off your payroll, out of your house. In twenty twenty six,
19:34
Speaker 5: that is no longer a safe assumption. Suzanne Woolly joins
19:37
Speaker 5: us now to discuss how to protect your money and
19:40
Speaker 5: maybe your sanity when an adult child requires support. Suzanne
19:44
Speaker 5: Great to see you, and I guess the first question
19:46
Speaker 5: is how much does it cost? What is the cost
19:48
Speaker 5: financial cost of letting a grown child move back.
19:50
Speaker 4: Into your home.
19:51
Speaker 12: Financial planners talk about an average of fifteen hundred dollars
19:55
Speaker 12: a month, which comes out about eighteen thousand a year.
19:58
Speaker 12: So it's more significant then you might think. And it's
20:02
Speaker 12: not just recent graduates either. I mean your adult children
20:04
Speaker 12: could be separating or divorcing and have kids, have pets
20:09
Speaker 12: on their own and bring them back home.
20:11
Speaker 4: How do you plan for this?
20:12
Speaker 5: What are the planners saying you can do to kind
20:14
Speaker 5: of get ahead of this?
20:15
Speaker 12: Well, I say, I mean an important part is to
20:17
Speaker 12: just set expectations. So when your adult child wants to
20:20
Speaker 12: come look back home, talk about, you know, will they
20:23
Speaker 12: pay some rent? Sure, you'll give them below market rent,
20:25
Speaker 12: of course, you know which, but it may increase over time,
20:28
Speaker 12: you know, so they have sort of an incentive to
20:30
Speaker 12: not make this arrangement last forever.
20:32
Speaker 4: Yeah.
20:33
Speaker 12: So setting expectations about rent and about privacy and just
20:38
Speaker 12: how things are going to work, it's just really important.
20:41
Speaker 4: Can use our question please.
20:43
Speaker 2: Jo, I mean, ask you for a friend, how do
20:45
Speaker 2: you get them out the door once.
20:47
Speaker 12: They move back in well, Tom, you must have made
20:50
Speaker 12: it a little too comfortable for them.
20:51
Speaker 2: That's the major thing. Make it too comfortable.
20:54
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you definitely don't want to be rating
20:56
Speaker 5: your retirement account or drawing down on your savings and
20:59
Speaker 5: perhaps not retire because they've come home to exactly.
21:02
Speaker 4: I mean, that's the key.
21:03
Speaker 12: If it's coming at the expense of your retirement security,
21:06
Speaker 12: you really have to think twice because your kids will
21:08
Speaker 12: have a long runway, you know, for earnings. Your runway
21:12
Speaker 12: if you're closer retiring is nuts.
21:14
Speaker 2: I'm going to get upset now. I remember sitting on
21:16
Speaker 2: the bed with my father. I came home from school
21:20
Speaker 2: and all that, and he said, you got four weeks
21:22
Speaker 2: to move out. That was the runway. The runway was for.
21:25
Speaker 4: Are you getting your kids four weeks?
21:27
Speaker 2: No, they've been very good about it, actually, but I admit,
21:31
Speaker 2: just like you say, we're all writing checks.
21:34
Speaker 12: Yeah, you're writing checks, what I mean. And sometimes it's
21:36
Speaker 12: great to have your kid move back, you.
21:38
Speaker 4: Know, for a while, at least in it for a while, and.
21:40
Speaker 12: If they're fatting, rent and maybe doing chores, empty.
21:45
Speaker 2: The dishwasher, walk to dog, all that.
21:47
Speaker 5: So Zanne, thank you so much, Suzanne Woolly is a
21:49
Speaker 5: member of our Bloomberg money team.
21:51
Speaker 2: Laura Calvausina's over here taking note. She's got young cherubs
21:54
Speaker 2: and she says, is this what this? This is what
21:56
Speaker 2: I had with kel Vassina Morney. We are thrilled the
21:59
Speaker 2: brig you now. Lori Calvisina had a US equity strategy
22:03
Speaker 2: at RBC Capital Markets, scary power points in a view
22:07
Speaker 2: of the equity market that's allowed people to be invested
22:12
Speaker 2: given their fears. Let's do this, let's bring it up
22:14
Speaker 2: right now. Is we can our money musterd here from Calvasena,
22:18
Speaker 2: It's from front of eighty page power points. It's like
22:21
Speaker 2: Mary Meeker on steroids. Lori Calvisina, our main sentiment model
22:26
Speaker 2: points to a gain of ten point eight percent over
22:29
Speaker 2: the next twelve months. You look here at the draw
22:32
Speaker 2: down fifty percent, Great Financial Crisis, World War two forty percent,
22:37
Speaker 2: and then you've got to get out front and still
22:40
Speaker 2: be optimistic. Do you fear the big draw down?
22:44
Speaker 13: So our base case has been we're going to be
22:46
Speaker 13: higher over the next twelve months, but it's not going
22:48
Speaker 13: to be in a linear fashion. And we assume that
22:50
Speaker 13: we're going to have at least one, maybe more drawdowns
22:53
Speaker 13: of five to ten percent. We call that tier one
22:55
Speaker 13: on our Tiers of Fear framework. What we do, you know,
22:58
Speaker 13: as sort of things come up in the market, right,
23:00
Speaker 13: we'll look at what we call tier two, tier three,
23:02
Speaker 13: tier four and sort of evaluate is their risk.
23:05
Speaker 8: Of falling into one of those.
23:06
Speaker 13: Not because we're telling everybody, you know, especially sort of
23:09
Speaker 13: in retail investorland, to sell, but to be prepared for.
23:12
Speaker 8: What might be your job.
23:13
Speaker 2: Is to go out and talk to people and say
23:15
Speaker 2: to them, let the fear go, Let it go, let
23:18
Speaker 2: it go, let it go. They're frozen because they're worried
23:22
Speaker 2: about that big draw down. What percentage of us are
23:24
Speaker 2: worried about a negative thirty five percent bear market?
23:27
Speaker 13: So if you look at the Conference Board survey that
23:29
Speaker 13: just came out, they actually have a question that gets
23:32
Speaker 13: very very little attention, But I like it a lot,
23:34
Speaker 13: and it's on stock market optimism going forward. I forget
23:37
Speaker 13: the exact number, but it's still extremely elevated, and it
23:40
Speaker 13: actually ticked up just a little bit. It hit a
23:42
Speaker 13: new high in late twenty twenty four, and it's been
23:44
Speaker 13: kind of hovering around that.
23:45
Speaker 8: Level ever since.
23:47
Speaker 13: So when we look at that as a gauge of
23:49
Speaker 13: retail investors, we think that they're not too worried. Now,
23:52
Speaker 13: if I talk about institutional investors, you know, we might
23:55
Speaker 13: look at something say the CFTC futures positioning data, which
23:59
Speaker 13: is easy. You had seen sort of one standard deviation
24:02
Speaker 13: above the long term average. Basically, that's you know, complicated
24:05
Speaker 13: speak for saying people were feeling good and well positioned,
24:07
Speaker 13: but not crazy, not euphoric, and that's easing down.
24:10
Speaker 8: It doesn't look under owned.
24:11
Speaker 13: And I would say there's some nervousness creeping into the
24:13
Speaker 13: institutional community, but I don't think there's panic there either.
24:16
Speaker 5: So use of institutional investors, but I know that one
24:19
Speaker 5: thing that comes up a lot in those conversations is
24:21
Speaker 5: the role of the retail investor and how they influence
24:24
Speaker 5: the market. Overall, retail stock ownership, I think is at
24:27
Speaker 5: a twenty year high. How do you think that's changed
24:29
Speaker 5: a stock market over your time covering it?
24:31
Speaker 13: You know, it's interesting because when I started, I started
24:34
Speaker 13: back in two thousand at a different firm, and I
24:37
Speaker 13: remember being taught, you know, by a very seasoned, you know,
24:40
Speaker 13: extremely bright strategist that you would look at the retail
24:43
Speaker 13: fund flow data and do whatever the opposite was right.
24:45
Speaker 13: So if they were all buying, you'd sell, and if
24:47
Speaker 13: they were all selling, you'd buy. And I don't think
24:49
Speaker 13: it quite works that way anymore. I do think retail
24:52
Speaker 13: investors have gotten much more sophisticated in their understanding of
24:55
Speaker 13: financial markets. There's a lot of innovation in the industry
24:58
Speaker 13: that's helping people out, you know.
25:00
Speaker 2: And I, you know, we.
25:01
Speaker 8: Were talking earlier about how I travel.
25:03
Speaker 13: I run into people in airports, I run into, you know,
25:05
Speaker 13: people who are driving me places, and you know, and
25:08
Speaker 13: you know, talk to people on airplanes and people sometimes,
25:11
Speaker 13: you know, will start talking about the stock market and
25:13
Speaker 13: they know a lot. And I think that's very different
25:16
Speaker 13: from early on in my career when sort of the
25:18
Speaker 13: purview of all the intricacies of our industry were really
25:21
Speaker 13: just limited to the institutional community.
25:23
Speaker 5: Okay, so it's changed a lot in your twenty plus years,
25:25
Speaker 5: But is it going to look like Korea? You look
25:27
Speaker 5: at the Korean stock market and it was had a
25:29
Speaker 5: bananas week. Great, it was down ten percent on Tuesdays,
25:33
Speaker 5: sixteen percent overnight. Year to date, it's massively Regail investors
25:37
Speaker 5: are huge presence there. They love the AI trade. They
25:40
Speaker 5: love these leverage single stock ets. Is that what the
25:42
Speaker 5: US stock market is headed towards?
25:45
Speaker 13: You know, it's hard to say. I don't see that
25:47
Speaker 13: right now. I feel like we have more guardrails in place.
25:49
Speaker 13: But the reality is that if you look at sort
25:52
Speaker 13: of this theme of democratization of the equity market, I mean,
25:55
Speaker 13: we got a lot of color on that from financial
25:57
Speaker 13: companies in this reporting season, talking about new and struments
26:00
Speaker 13: and why they might be doing one thing or another thing.
26:02
Speaker 13: Did retail want it? Did institutions want it? Was it
26:05
Speaker 13: something you know they should be doing? You know, sports
26:08
Speaker 13: right for example? And prediction markets was something we saw
26:10
Speaker 13: a few companies say we're not going to do, even
26:13
Speaker 13: though there might be appetite for it.
26:14
Speaker 8: But I do think.
26:15
Speaker 13: This trend of getting typical Americans engaged in the stock market,
26:20
Speaker 13: I don't think that's changing.
26:21
Speaker 2: What would you do as a retiree? Now the old
26:25
Speaker 2: rule was take four percent, be happy, move on, maybe
26:28
Speaker 2: buy an annuity, whatever. What's the RBC advice for someone
26:33
Speaker 2: with an equity pot and how to manage it? Given
26:37
Speaker 2: that retirees.
26:38
Speaker 13: Never die well, I think the first thing you always
26:40
Speaker 13: do is and this is always my first advice for
26:42
Speaker 13: peoples work with a financial advisor, and I think even
26:45
Speaker 13: in my purview as sort of an equity person, you know,
26:47
Speaker 13: I would want sort of that device that advice on diversification.
26:50
Speaker 4: By the distance, I think that I.
26:52
Speaker 13: Know a certain corner of the market very well, and
26:55
Speaker 13: there's a certain corner of the market I don't know
26:56
Speaker 13: very well. So I would want some advice frankly to
26:59
Speaker 13: come in and sort of ballence me out. But I
27:01
Speaker 13: do think staying diversified is something that just makes sense
27:04
Speaker 13: and not trying to play the short term, not trying
27:06
Speaker 13: to play every little twist in turn.
27:08
Speaker 2: How do you not play the short term? If you're
27:10
Speaker 2: watching Bloomberg, Surveilance or five of Scars media properties religiously,
27:16
Speaker 2: but you're supposed to be long term? How do you
27:18
Speaker 2: do that? In modern media?
27:19
Speaker 13: This goes back to our tears of fear right and
27:21
Speaker 13: so typical drawdowns are five to ten percent. Be prepared
27:24
Speaker 13: for those, and there's always a big test once you
27:26
Speaker 13: kind of get to nine percent ten percent, are you
27:28
Speaker 13: going to go lower? And what we tell the institutions,
27:30
Speaker 13: and I tell this to you know, fas I talk
27:32
Speaker 13: to as well, is if you don't think that there's
27:35
Speaker 13: a serious chance of a recession or these days we're
27:38
Speaker 13: all also talking about interest rate shocks, then you're probably
27:41
Speaker 13: going to bottom out at ten percent. But if there
27:42
Speaker 13: is something that's unknown that happens in the market, right
27:46
Speaker 13: if you looked back at twenty eighteen, we had tariffs
27:48
Speaker 13: for the first time, we had some concerns about the FED,
27:50
Speaker 13: we had a twenty percent draw down. We have these
27:53
Speaker 13: growth scares that can go to like the fifteen to
27:55
Speaker 13: twenty percent range, But just kind of know what's coming,
27:57
Speaker 13: be educated ahead of time, be prepared, and don't know
28:00
Speaker 13: react in the moment. If you don't think that there's
28:03
Speaker 13: you know, sort of a serious chance of a recession,
28:04
Speaker 13: and we talked a lot to hedge funds about this
28:07
Speaker 13: last year around tariffs, then you're probably not going to
28:09
Speaker 13: have like a twenty five or thirty three percent type
28:11
Speaker 13: draw down, which is what you see in recessions. Kind
28:13
Speaker 13: of twenty percent might be the worst.
28:15
Speaker 8: And so it's really.
28:16
Speaker 13: Just being educated and knowing that markets can be volatile
28:19
Speaker 13: and what do these different levels signify, and just again
28:22
Speaker 13: not overreacting in the moment.
28:23
Speaker 5: Individual investors seem to have mastered the art of buying
28:26
Speaker 5: the dip.
28:26
Speaker 4: They come in.
28:27
Speaker 5: They are kind of you know, they don't get rattled
28:29
Speaker 5: by stock market declientes. They come in there like I'm buying,
28:31
Speaker 5: I'm buying. Have institutional investors looked at that and kind
28:34
Speaker 5: of adjusted their behavior as a result.
28:36
Speaker 13: One thing we've noticed is that there are certain valuation gauges.
28:39
Speaker 13: You know, we can look at pees and where they
28:41
Speaker 13: typically bottom out at, and on certain charts they make
28:43
Speaker 13: higher and higher lows. And I think that's because of
28:45
Speaker 13: these dip buyers coming in. So you do have to
28:47
Speaker 13: have it in the back of your mind.
28:49
Speaker 2: Well, you just said I disagree with not you, but
28:52
Speaker 2: I disagree with the zeitgeist that we've learned something new.
28:55
Speaker 2: We haven't woken up on a Monday being down twenty
28:59
Speaker 2: two percent or being done.
29:00
Speaker 4: Thirty four We're going to let that hap.
29:03
Speaker 2: Well, that may be, that's an Eric belt Shoots question.
29:05
Speaker 2: But Laurie, I think we don't have a collective memory
29:08
Speaker 2: of a massive drawdown anymore, and our behavior will change
29:12
Speaker 2: if we get that.
29:13
Speaker 8: Well, you know, I take your point.
29:15
Speaker 13: We have a lot of conversations, you know, I would
29:18
Speaker 13: just say in the financial community about when did you start?
29:20
Speaker 13: So I started in two thousand. I didn't see the
29:22
Speaker 13: tech bubble melt up, but I certainly saw the other side.
29:24
Speaker 2: We enjoyed two thousand and eight nine.
29:26
Speaker 8: Yeah, I lived through it, right, I remember and enjoyed.
29:28
Speaker 4: You lived through it.
29:29
Speaker 8: I lived through it.
29:30
Speaker 13: I remember being in conference rooms, I want to say,
29:32
Speaker 13: like in two thousand and six, with mice running across
29:34
Speaker 13: the floor, and home building companies talked to packed rooms,
29:37
Speaker 13: you know, and you couldn't you were violating some fire code,
29:40
Speaker 13: right because there were too many people. And so I
29:42
Speaker 13: remember the height of that bubble, you know, very clearly.
29:45
Speaker 8: And I do think there's a lot of people.
29:47
Speaker 13: In the institutional community who weren't around for the GFC, right,
29:50
Speaker 13: who weren't around for the tech bubble. So I take
29:52
Speaker 13: Tom's point. But remember, we did have a massive draw
29:55
Speaker 13: down around COVID, which was a typical recession type draw down,
29:59
Speaker 13: and it was it was interesting. I mean, we we've
30:02
Speaker 13: done a lot of work around that, especially, you know,
30:05
Speaker 13: as kind of the Middle East situation has flared back up.
30:07
Speaker 13: And I reminded people, I said, you know, we did
30:09
Speaker 13: a recession's worth of decline in about a month. Good,
30:13
Speaker 13: and you know, and I think people have kind of
30:15
Speaker 13: forgotten about that one. But you can see fair how
30:18
Speaker 13: fast and steep and and you know, difficult frankly, you
30:22
Speaker 13: know those kind of decline. Twenty two wasn't pretty either. No, No,
30:25
Speaker 13: that was a that was a weird one. We've had
30:27
Speaker 13: trouble classifying that one, you know, and sort of our tears.
30:30
Speaker 13: We think what essentially happened was the misery index spiked
30:34
Speaker 13: because of inflation. It felt like a recession.
30:36
Speaker 8: It wasn't.
30:37
Speaker 13: You got a recessionary type draw down in the market,
30:39
Speaker 13: and you also had a massive interest rate shock, just
30:42
Speaker 13: expectations of FED hikes piled in, and you threw a
30:45
Speaker 13: war on top of that.
30:46
Speaker 8: Right, it was.
30:47
Speaker 13: It was a little bit worse than a growth scared
30:49
Speaker 13: not quite as bad as a recession, but pretty darn close.
30:51
Speaker 2: Lurie, thank you so much. Really appreciate it coming in
30:53
Speaker 2: on a Friday, I really really appreciated. RBC Capital Marcus
30:57
Speaker 2: powerpoints of Squize. Get it from RBC the capital markets.
31:05
Speaker 5: All right, we're looking at shares of Apple down as
31:08
Speaker 5: much as eleven percent right now after component shortages, weight
31:12
Speaker 5: on the company's sales forecast. A letter Popina of Bloomberg
31:15
Speaker 5: News joins us now to discuss when we're talking about shortages,
31:18
Speaker 5: it's really the memory chips, and we've seen prices for
31:21
Speaker 5: those things spike up and a company like Apple needs
31:24
Speaker 5: to contend with it.
31:25
Speaker 14: Yeah, CEO Team Cook said that memory chip shortage is
31:28
Speaker 14: similar to one hundred y of flots. The demand is
31:30
Speaker 14: so high and the shortage is so widespread that in
31:34
Speaker 14: the common quarter there will be more shortages and some
31:38
Speaker 14: weaight times for some of the key products includeing MacBook Mini,
31:42
Speaker 14: so that may weigh on the revenue outlook. Now we're
31:45
Speaker 14: talking about the outlook for the quarter ending in September.
31:48
Speaker 14: This is the quarter when the key iPhones usually go out.
31:51
Speaker 14: This is the quarter when you know, mom and pop
31:54
Speaker 14: investors buy apples and then your iPhones for their kids
31:57
Speaker 14: they go back to school. So that's supply shortage is
32:00
Speaker 14: going to weigh on sentiment. And this is what is
32:03
Speaker 14: John and shares lower today.
32:04
Speaker 4: Okay.
32:04
Speaker 5: Apple also came out with this new innovative way of
32:07
Speaker 5: funding your iPhone purchases, or maybe purchase is the wrong word.
32:10
Speaker 5: You're now going to be able to lease your iPhone
32:12
Speaker 5: the way that you can lease a car.
32:14
Speaker 14: Yeah, that's pretty much the case, and not just your Apple.
32:18
Speaker 14: You can you lease your iPad. You can lease your
32:20
Speaker 14: MacBook Medium, MacBook Pro for up to three years, and
32:23
Speaker 14: then after that point you can decide if you want
32:25
Speaker 14: to keep it, if you want to return it, if
32:27
Speaker 14: you want to just upgrade to a new cycle.
32:29
Speaker 4: So that's pretty.
32:30
Speaker 14: Much, you know, Apple's way of saying, listen, just keep
32:33
Speaker 14: staying with us forever and keep upgrading.
32:35
Speaker 2: But from a consumption standpoint, somebody had this on Twitter
32:38
Speaker 2: this week where every result of gee, they don't have
32:40
Speaker 2: the chips, so this supply. This the reason they don't
32:42
Speaker 2: have the supply is they have massive demand. Do we
32:46
Speaker 2: see within our reporting, Mark German and you and everybody else,
32:49
Speaker 2: do we see any way on a unit basis that
32:53
Speaker 2: they're stumbling.
32:53
Speaker 4: They're not They're not really stumbling.
32:55
Speaker 14: I mean, China remains a weak spot, but it's always
32:58
Speaker 14: been a week spot. So we cannot demand any strong
33:00
Speaker 14: numbers out of China. But you know, when you look
33:03
Speaker 14: at the sales of the wearables they missed, they were
33:06
Speaker 14: in line with expectations.
33:07
Speaker 2: I mean, the scarlet needs a blush neo, right, I
33:11
Speaker 2: mean that's really what this is.
33:13
Speaker 14: If you look at the sales for MacBooks, they smashed
33:15
Speaker 14: expectations by landslide. You know, so the iPhone expectations also
33:19
Speaker 14: wear a bob estimate. So across the board people kept buying.
33:23
Speaker 14: So consumers, your retail traders, they had nothing to do
33:26
Speaker 14: with that week forecast.
33:27
Speaker 8: It's more of a supply.
33:29
Speaker 14: Can strained issue rather than a demand issue.
33:31
Speaker 5: Apple has had to raise prices as well. And you
33:34
Speaker 5: wonder how much these new foldable iPhones that they're going
33:36
Speaker 5: to release are going to end up costing.
33:38
Speaker 2: Why do I need a foldable iPhone?
33:40
Speaker 4: That's what they can fit it into your pocket, won't
33:41
Speaker 4: fall out. It's an extble. Your pockets are bigger, mind than.
33:45
Speaker 2: The Neo came out as a joke and it's the
33:47
Speaker 2: hottest thing going right. Yeah, it's talk about Bloomberg money.
33:50
Speaker 2: Everybody watching this show and personal finance. A kid, I
33:53
Speaker 2: need a Blue I guess I like my Air, but
33:57
Speaker 2: I really need a Neo to go back.
33:58
Speaker 4: Well, the parents want to pay for the new not there?
34:01
Speaker 5: Well something you is a low cost model, so that's
34:03
Speaker 5: start of it appeal, that's the selling point. Thank you
34:06
Speaker 5: so much, Elena Popina of Bloomberg News. All Right, and
34:10
Speaker 5: you know it's Friday, it's Bloomberg money. So we always
34:12
Speaker 5: talk about books. I know that I've got a huge
34:14
Speaker 5: reading list on my phone that I got to get to.
34:17
Speaker 5: Do you read books or do you like use the Kindle?
34:20
Speaker 2: No? No, I tried the Kindle, and I've tried other things,
34:23
Speaker 2: and now I'm very much back to just reading hardcover
34:25
Speaker 2: books only though old well yeah sometimes I can't, but
34:29
Speaker 2: you know, old school books. How about the muster read
34:31
Speaker 2: books that we've got right now? Yours my mind is
34:36
Speaker 2: a foundation read if you care about Elena Poppina's technology.
34:41
Speaker 2: Chip War is my book of the year two years ago.
34:43
Speaker 2: Chris Miller's out of Tufts up in Boston, and this
34:47
Speaker 2: is absolutely, absolutely the seminal read on the history of semiconductors,
34:53
Speaker 2: and he just captures beautifully the turf wars, whether it's
34:57
Speaker 2: obviously Silicon Valley or Charles River in Boston, or even
35:03
Speaker 2: over to the Netherlands at ASML or Timewan. Excuse me,
35:07
Speaker 2: the timeline story is actually the invention of Taiwan semiconductors
35:11
Speaker 2: may be the most emotional story in the book.
35:14
Speaker 5: Yeah, I can't wait to get to that point. I'm
35:16
Speaker 5: really excited about it. My book kind of ties into that.
35:18
Speaker 5: It's How to Rule the World and Education and Power
35:20
Speaker 5: at Stanford University by THEO Baker.
35:23
Speaker 4: This book is a lot of things, oh yeah.
35:25
Speaker 5: But what I enjoyed the most is the picture that
35:26
Speaker 5: it paints of Stanford for super bright and ambitious kids.
35:30
Speaker 5: Stanford's a place where the coding or hacking clubs they
35:32
Speaker 5: join have access to slush funds provided by tech companies,
35:35
Speaker 5: so they can party on yachts and socialized with billionaires.
35:38
Speaker 5: Vcs hang out there on campus at the cafe I
35:41
Speaker 5: think it's called the Koupa Cafe to scout future talent,
35:45
Speaker 5: which leads to offers of funding their startups later on
35:49
Speaker 5: for billions of dollars with a non doct I.
35:51
Speaker 2: I take issue with the romance of this and that
35:54
Speaker 2: mostly what the kids do is work. They're particularly undergraduate.
35:58
Speaker 2: They're working on first principle heavyweight mathematics, their operational research.
36:03
Speaker 2: I mean, so much of this is Michael Spence, the
36:05
Speaker 2: laureates invention, but I think it's underplayed how much the
36:11
Speaker 2: bright kids at these bright schools on the West coast,
36:14
Speaker 2: Harry Mudd, Caltech, Stanford, I'd mentioned Cornell on the East coast. Frankly,
36:18
Speaker 2: the kids work, I mean Scarlett slid through just in.
36:21
Speaker 4: Case there is that.
36:23
Speaker 5: But the ones that get farther are the ones who
36:25
Speaker 5: are hobnobbing with the bill ups. You know, they're getting
36:28
Speaker 5: the early look deals with those guys.
36:31
Speaker 2: I like hobnobbing better than new.
36:34
Speaker 4: Sounds a little bit like, you know, friendlier.
36:35
Speaker 8: Right all right.
36:36
Speaker 5: For the latest reviews and recommendations from Bloomberg, be sure
36:39
Speaker 5: to subscribe to the on Books newsletter.
36:46
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Money. From New York City on a Friday, summer Friday,
36:49
Speaker 2: the streets are just it's a summer Friday. It's easier
36:52
Speaker 2: to get to work and get home.
36:53
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's no traffic whatsoever.
36:55
Speaker 2: There's no question about it. So I guess they're gonna
36:58
Speaker 2: look ahead, he or can we look.
37:00
Speaker 15: Yeah, let's do that to this hour, right, Yeah, this hour.
37:03
Speaker 15: Richard claar Go's with the vice chairman. We ripped it
37:05
Speaker 15: up and did a much you know, Federal Reserve conversation.
37:09
Speaker 15: And the excitement of that was Annawon's work of Bloomberg economics.
37:13
Speaker 2: She was on fire. Here is Richard Clarida.
37:18
Speaker 10: He left open the possibility that the task forces could
37:21
Speaker 10: recommend other measures. They could go to an average instead
37:24
Speaker 10: of picking one inducts, they could look at CPIPPI.
37:27
Speaker 9: There are a lot of things they could do. But
37:29
Speaker 9: I think Anna.
37:30
Speaker 10: As usual raised is an important point is that an
37:33
Speaker 10: inflation targeting central bank needs to be clear about what
37:36
Speaker 10: it is it's targeting. It can and may evolve, and
37:39
Speaker 10: so I think that will be important.
37:41
Speaker 2: And I published this morning as well. Look for that
37:43
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Economics across the weekend and what our videos
37:47
Speaker 2: will be out as well.
37:48
Speaker 5: All right, it was great to have Richard Clarida here
37:50
Speaker 5: with us, but it is Fridays. We need to look
37:52
Speaker 5: ahead to the weekend and next week as well. This
37:55
Speaker 5: Saturday and Sunday, BTS will be holding their first headline
37:58
Speaker 5: performance concert in New York since.
38:00
Speaker 2: They got to be sold mental soldo.
38:03
Speaker 4: I was checking on stubhop.
38:04
Speaker 5: You can still get stage right tickets for eighteen hundred
38:06
Speaker 5: dollars for repair each and then the nosebleed is at
38:10
Speaker 5: one hundred and seventy six, so that's a huge spread.
38:13
Speaker 5: But I thought maybe you would be more interested in Rush.
38:16
Speaker 2: Is that right?
38:16
Speaker 9: Yeah?
38:16
Speaker 5: They have a reunion tour. They're now halfway through their
38:18
Speaker 5: four night residency. At MSG. The og band members Getty
38:22
Speaker 5: Lee and Alexleisen will be their minus drummer Neil Port,
38:25
Speaker 5: who passed away sadly in twenty twenty.
38:27
Speaker 2: They did a bang up job on this. They went
38:29
Speaker 2: out and they just really looked for a new drummer,
38:31
Speaker 2: which is incredibly hard for any bands. They will all
38:35
Speaker 2: say that Anakans is from Germany and she's like legit
38:39
Speaker 2: classical rock train. Jeff Percaro was their huge hero from Toto,
38:44
Speaker 2: and the answer is she's the real deal and literally
38:47
Speaker 2: ran an academic department at the university.
38:49
Speaker 4: I don't know that it's a woman of many talents.
38:52
Speaker 2: I would suggest is a non Rush fanatic. It's been
38:55
Speaker 2: hugely successful.
38:56
Speaker 4: All right.
38:56
Speaker 5: Well, they are playing at MSG again, this four night
39:01
Speaker 5: concert residency that they're calling it. Also, of course next
39:04
Speaker 5: week we've got the job support for the month of
39:06
Speaker 5: July and the CONSENSU assessment right now is for eighty
39:08
Speaker 5: eight thousand jobs added in the month of July versus
39:11
Speaker 5: fifty seven thousand in July.
39:12
Speaker 2: I'm still not used to the new jobs number, with
39:16
Speaker 2: immigration being under one hundred thousand. To me, eighty eight
39:19
Speaker 2: thousands terrible, and yet the one would tell you that's
39:22
Speaker 2: actually pretty well.
39:23
Speaker 5: You'll get the unemployment rate, it's going to stay unchanged
39:25
Speaker 5: at four point two percent, and our generally earning is
39:28
Speaker 5: pretty much staying in line.
39:29
Speaker 2: And that's brilliant that you do that through August through September.
39:32
Speaker 2: For Bloomberg Money, the inflation adjusted wage got to be
39:36
Speaker 2: front and center as well.
39:37
Speaker 4: And don't forget earnings.
39:38
Speaker 5: SpaceX reports its first set of results as a listed
39:41
Speaker 5: company that's worked out so far.
39:44
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money podcast, bringing you a smart
39:48
Speaker 2: look at the forces shaping your financial life. I'm Tom
39:52
Speaker 2: Keen with Scarlet Food. You can watch the show live
39:55
Speaker 2: I'm Bloomberg TV every Friday at noon Law Street Time.
39:59
Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen,
40:04
Speaker 2: and is always on the Bloomberg terminal in the Bloomberg
40:07
Speaker 2: Business app